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Here's how I think this thing has played (is playing) out: PG&E was very tactical. | dev33 |
They knew that the Edison deal was imminent. | dev33 |
They see the Edison deal as extremely adverse to their interests. | dev33 |
They feared that the pressure on them to do the same deal would be enormous once the Governor announced the Edison deal. | dev33 |
Thus, in an incredibly dramatic attempt to pre-empt the possibility that they'd have to accept the Edison deal, PG&E threw itself into bankruptcy. | dev33 |
(Preemption seems to have been very successful, at least at this point.) So I think that they wanted everyone to know, including Wall Street and the Governor, that the decision's been made---they're going the way of Ch. | dev33 |
11, not the way of J. Bryson and Edison. | dev33 |
This make sense? | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
FYI. | dev33 |
PCG is up $1.6 as we speak. | dev33 |
Hi. | dev33 |
Any word on the mower? | dev33 |
very sorry. | dev33 |
hang in there. | dev33 |
Here are the components as I see them: 1999 numbers for C&I are fine; I'd do 10%, 15%, 20% reductions. | dev33 |
Assume C&I takes its proportionate share of the DWR's net short (i.e., if C&I is 2/3 of load, then 2/3 of CDW purchases should go to C&I) You can use the average price used in the DWR presentation to Legislators to the $ amount. | dev33 |
The copy I've got sez that the average price for the first 5 years is $79/MWH. | dev33 |
That seems like the # we ought to use. | dev33 |
Now the hard part. | dev33 |
The state reportedly sez that they aren't buying the entire net short---only that part that they feel like covering. | dev33 |
So how do we factor that in? | dev33 |
Not sure that we can get detailed data (but check with Alan Comnes, who might be able to provide ISO real time prices (which is where the net short (of the net short) is being filled ISO---the ISO then sends that bill to PG&E. An easier way might be to use PG&E's numbers. In their bankruptcy announcement, PG&E sez that it's been costing them $300MM per month ($300MM * 0.67 * 0.10 =~$20MM). We could scale this number up to account for summer purchases. Alternatively, we could use ENA's forward curve. This is very quick and dirty (apologies) and I may have gotten something very wrong. If I've got any fatal flaws in the thinking (which happens often), please point them out. And if you have any questions, don't hesitate. Best, Jeff | dev33 |
God help us. | dev33 |
Works for me. | dev33 |
That is so cool. | dev33 |
Congratulations. | dev33 |
That ain't an easy job (you know how traders are); but you'll do great. | dev33 |
Where's Christi going? | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
OK, wondering why there ain't no charges on your credit card from our FABULOUS trip to Squaw Valley? | dev33 |
I just found out that they're all on mine!!?!?!? | dev33 |
I had the best time up there, but I couldn't figure out how it coulda cost $1700. | dev33 |
Just called them to inquire. | dev33 |
They said: There's no mistake those are all the carges for rooms 432 and 450. | dev33 |
They're sending receipts. | dev33 |
Unreal. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Worry not. | dev33 |
Great deal. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Thanks. | dev33 |
Any idea of what time it will air? | dev33 |
Not a problem. | dev33 |
Just couldn't believe that they screwed it up so much. | dev33 |
There's 3 ft of new power at Squaw!!!! | dev33 |
Hi: Could you send me a copy of the Trustee letter? | dev33 |
Email would be great; otherwise, fax is 415.782.7854. | dev33 |
Thanks. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
where've we been? | dev33 |
where've you been? | dev33 |
really only stay at my house on school nites (monday/thursday). | dev33 |
will be chez toi tonite. | dev33 |
would LOVE to go back this weekend (it's gorgeous---TONS of iris, apple blossoms, wild flowers, etc.), but alas, we promised you're folks we'd plant tomatoes this weekend. | dev33 |
I'm going to put down nice gravely rock around the beds, so it looks more like Italy, or France or something and we don't get all the weeds. | dev33 |
Sorry about S.D., but it will be super nice down there. | dev33 |
Be sure to go to Black's Beach. | dev33 |
And golf and Torrey Pines. | dev33 |
See you tonite? | dev33 |
No problem. | dev33 |
Worry not. | dev33 |
lemme guess. | dev33 |
you were a standup comic in another life? | dev33 |
I was afraid you'd ask that. | dev33 |
Don't know the exact number, but I'm assuming that it's a whole heckuvalot less than the May 1-December 31 exposure. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Thanks. | dev33 |
FYI. | dev33 |
The Negative PX Credit language in the MOU reads (on p.31): "the CPUC Implementing Decisions shall include Orders resolving the responsibility of SCE to provide credits to direct access customers in respect of electricity deliveries after December 31, 2000 in respects which do not result in any material financial detriment to SCE; " Could go several different ways, but arguably could be read to say that SCE will make good on credits up to 12.31.2000. | dev33 |
If that were the case, I'm assuming that about 75-90% of our exposure would be covered? | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Ouch. | dev33 |
So it could be one way or the other... | dev33 |
Greetings: Sue Landwehr will be sending around a more comprehensive summary of what happened at today's FERC hearnig in Boise but asked me to pass along the following. | dev33 |
Each state was only allowed to have two people at the table. | dev33 |
For California it was Assembly Speaker Hertzberg and Geoff Brown (newly appointed CA PUC Commissioner). | dev33 |
Hertzberg did a credible, matter-of-fact job of explaining what California's doing to resolve the crisis (nice to know that there's someone out there who can explain what the heck California's doing). | dev33 |
Hertzberg then asked that FERC do "its part" by imposing price caps in Western wholesale markets. | dev33 |
Hertzberg didn't mention the PG&E bankruptcy or Davis' deal with Edison. | dev33 |
Overall, the "no price cap" message won the day (though Breathitt seems to be under considerable pressure to give in to caps). | dev33 |
The Governor of Arizona (Jane Hull) had a staffer deliver a letter signed by 9 republicant governors opposing price caps. | dev33 |
Sue will be distributing the letter. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Not a problem. | dev33 |
There's 3 feet of power at Squaw. | dev33 |
The interest on the charges was $500. | dev33 |
Hi Hedy, Scott, Sandi: Any news on signing of SB 43? | dev33 |
Eric Letke mentioned that Sony--a potential customer--told him that the Governor signed it on Friday and that they (Sony) had a representative at the signing. | dev33 |
Any news would be great. | dev33 |
Thanks a bunch. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Sorry, I can't, for the life of me, get your email address right. | dev33 |
My apologies. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
You really know how to hurt a guy. | dev33 |
Best, Jeff | dev33 |
Greetings: Let's talk more about ENA's position on Kern. | dev33 |
And I'll fill you in on Gas Accord extension. | dev33 |
It's been on-again-off-again with PG&E. | dev33 |
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