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He asked me to give both of you an invite in appreciation of the work you've done for him.
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If you have interest, ccmail me with whether you need one or two invites each.
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John
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I'm free from 4:00-5:00 today
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I'll send 2 invites up.
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What's your location?
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Greg's always on vacation.
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You need to teach him some work habits.
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Next Tuesday will work.
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John
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8 pm to 2 am
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I spoke to Vlady this afternoon regarding the alternative VAR methodologies.
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I think changing to a Riskmetrics historical VAR system is more defendable and objective, will provide more consistent results, and will create more realistic results.
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I understand Vince has a similar opinion.
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John.
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Per: Can you give the Campbell fund read-only access to EOL.
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It may speed up the process if they see they can trade pre-market.
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John
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Good job....I've got 10% of my portfolio in CGP.
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Keep up the good work.
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Margaret: As you can imagine, most information and procedures on the floor are extremely confidential.
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We look at the gas market uniquely and using different tools than anybody else.
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It is one of our competitive advantages.
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I'm hesistant to approve the use of any documents for external purposes.
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If you provide more information about what you're trying to show, who the target audience is, and what format it will be presented, I may be able to help you.
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John
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Frank: Just following up on two topics.
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One: Larry May's book continues to run at a VAR of 2,500,00 despite the fact his P&L is never close to that.
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Can you check that his exotics book positions are being picked up in his VAR calcs.
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Second: Have you looked into applying a band-aid to the understating longer term Vol problem until we change formulas?
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John
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Interesting observation...but I'm not sure I agree.
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I think consensus opinion is that anything under 2.7 TCF is very dangerous entering the winter.
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A month ago, analysts were predicting we would end the injection season with around 2.6 - 2.7 in the ground.
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With the most recent AGA, those projections seem to be closer to 2.7.
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With supply of gas very inelastic to price in the short and medium term, you must look at the demand side of the equation.
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The market is trying to price out the right amount of demand (mostly through lost industrial load and fuel switching) such that supplies will be stored rather than burned.
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Each AGA number is another data point as to whether nat gas is high enough to price out enough demand to reach a comfortable level in storage entering the winter.
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A low AGA number indicates we haven't priced out enough demand and the market must go up.
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Certainly, the 97 throws a curve in the bull argument, but the number may be a function of very mild weather, a four day holiday weekend, and reporting noise rather than indicative of a structural shift in the supply/demand equilibrium.
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We'll know a lot more as the next two weeks' numbers come out.
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If we get two low injections, watch out.
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Enron North America Corp.
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Frank: Susan Scott, Larry's risk manager, will compile and send you a spreadsheet of total p&l minus new deal p&l since June 1.
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Can you review this data and compare it to the respective VAR numbers for these dates.
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I think you will see the VAR numbers way overestimate his p&l volatility.
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John Enron North America Corp.
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Hello: A recent posting on the Enron bulletin board indicated that you are looking for academic tutors.
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I may be available to help at nights in math.
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Can you please respond with details about the program, how old the kids are, the commitment required, etc. Thanks, John Arnold
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Frank: The $5,000,000 extra VAR disappears in about a week.
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There MUST be a band-aid to the term VAR curve before this expires.
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Again, the back of the board is realizing 35-60% vol and it's being credited with 15% vol.
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Thanks, John
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Jim: The following are the authorized floor brokers to accept trades from: Man SDI Carr the old Fimat group (don't know what their name is now) Flatt Futures Thanks, John
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Jim: The list I gave you is a list of brokers that can clear through you, NOT brokers that you clear exclusively.
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You do not clear any of my brokers exclusively.
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All trades that clear through you will be done on discretionary trade-by trade basis.
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You MUST have your floor personnel reverse everything they they told my brokers this morning.
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I am not happy.
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John
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Is it per game or point or what?
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I think you're cheating trying to get a fixed amount....
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I'll give $1 per pin.
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Good luck, John
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Andy: Is the new version of EOL coming out soon.
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I'm waiting to put new products on until it comes...
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John
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Thanks.
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Russell: My risk group frequently uses the New Counterparty label for internal counterparties that do not have a trading book.
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This transaction was a hedge for the acquisition of the paper plant we announced recently.
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I'm not sure who the internal group is that did the transaction.
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Dutch Quigley should be able to help.
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John.
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Jeff: In regards to the antitrust training, can you please schedule that at least one of the sessions starts at 3:00 or later to ensure participation by all.
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Thanks, John
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Mary: These agreements are acceptable.
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Please sign the give up agreements with Banc One.
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John
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VP Nat Gas Trading
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The plan looks good.
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Can you please attach a time schedule to the different steps and send it back.
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Thanks, John
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Frank: One of the most likely scenarios for a VAR blowout would be a severe cold front hitting the country in the middle to latter part of the winter.
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In such a circumstance, cash may separate from prompt futures similar to how Midwest power traded $5000+ on specific days last year while prompt futures were $200.
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The correlation between prompt and cash is normally very strong, and is indicated by the small VAR associated with a spread position currently.
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But in the winter that may change.
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Another thing to keep in mind while developing this scenario is the assymetric risk presented by having a spread position on.
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Assuming we enter the winter with normal to below normal storage levels, a position of long cash, short prompt futures has a long tail only on the positive p&l side.
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While such a trade in an efficient market has expected payout of 0, the payout probabilities may look like the following: Enron North America Corp.
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thanks
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Liz: Come by anytime...
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Thanks, John
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Hey: What's the update on Larry May's VAR issues.
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Again, this is a priority as we will lose Lavorato's VAR soon.
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Thanks, John
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Jan Red Jan trading 28.5 with Sep @ 381
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I have not heard back from you.
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What is the schedule for changing the VAR process?
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Please reply, John
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