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I do appreciate your offer but I don't want to take away from the amazing year you've had so far.
dev34
Maybe you should come trade this...
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John
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don't know.
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think a little bit of everyone as the storage guys own it all.
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seems crazy.
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if you're willing to ride it for a few cents against you it's a great trade.
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who knows where they're going in th eshort term though
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i think it is something we need to do.
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please set it up
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A funny story: Because Access was up 75 cents last night, Nymex made a trading limit of unchanged to +150.
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After 20 minutes of trading, we were at unchanged and the exchange stopped trading for an hour.
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Rappaport, the exchange president, was standing by to make sure everything was orderly.
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Obviously, the locals weren't too happy about the exchange closing.
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One yelled at Rappaport...
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"Why don't you take your million dollar bonus and go buy Enron stock"
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why does everybody in this company know my p&l?????
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cant handle the pressure of big money??
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amazing how with cash futures at $1 and the back such a piece that f/g under such pressure.
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month 2 has been the strongest part of the board all year.
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will be interesting to see what happens when h/j is prompt.
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could j actually be strong?
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seems like of the spreads on the board the best risk reward is in f/g.
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a little worried about having the z/f effect again.
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that is, all spec length trying to roll and funds trying to roll at the same time leading to some ridiculous level at expiry.
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any thoughts?
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a couple more thoughts.
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certainly losing lots of indutrial demand both to switching and slowdown in economy.
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Big 3 automakers all temporarily closing plants for instance.
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switching is significant and has led to cash in the gulf expiring weak everyday.
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gas daily spread to prompt trading at $1....need some very cold weather to justify that.
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this seems to be the test of the next 3-5 days.
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Will the switching/loss of demand/storage management keep cash futures spread at reasonable levels or will it blow to $5+.
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Not too many years ago we had a $50 print on the Hub.
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unless we get some crazy prints, you have to question the steep backwardation in the market.
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funny watching the flies in the front.
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Bot large chunk of g/h/j at $.50 friday morning.
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probably worth 1.30 now.
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crazy.
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people have seen each front spread be weak since forever and are already starting to eye up g/h.
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what's the thoughts on distillates...
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is it tight enough such that gas switching is the marginal mmbtu of demand and pulls it up or is the market too oversupplied to care?
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Catherine: Sorry it's been so long since I could respond.
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With the craziness here I am way behind on everything.
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#2.
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volume way down on exchange recently with recent volatility.
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volume probably averaging 25000 these days.
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EOL volume averaging around 14000.
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Very high percent of market.
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Current market conditions shows why our transactional model of being one side of every trade is superior.
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#3.
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good liquidity first 3 years.
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okay liquidity years 4-6.
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#4.
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calendar 2004-2008 maybe 1 trade a day.
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70% chance Enron is one side.
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calendar 2009-2013 very rare that it trades.
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absolutely agree.
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the thought is always, even if cash is piece of shit today...wait until the future.
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here's my question: what is the environment whereby f/g is worth $.50.
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is there a market scenario where this happens?
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yep
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come by whenever
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remember when you said there is a reason they call them bear spreads?
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bring up a chart of f/g or g/h.
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f/g is tighter now than anytime since march 99 when ff1 was worth 2.50 amazing
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and they say it was purely coincidental the announcement came today.
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6 is fine.
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saw a lot of the bulls sell summer against length in front to mitigate margins/absolute position limits/var.
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as these guys are taking off the front, they are also buying back summer.
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el paso large buyer of next winter today taking off spreads.
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certainly a reason why the spreads were so strong on the way up and such a piece now.
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really the only one left with any risk premium built in is h/j now.
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it was trading equivalent of 180 on access, down 40+ from this morning.
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certainly if we are entering a period of bearish to neutral trade, h/j will get whacked.
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certainly understand the arguments for h/j.
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if h settles $20, that spread is probably worth $10.
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H 20 call was trading for 55 on monday.
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today it was 10/17.
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the market's view of probability of h going crazy has certainly changed in past 48 hours and that has to be reflected in h/j.
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hey: any interest in seeing cirque du soleil saturday?
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just called they're on vacation for two weeks.......that sucks
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please remind me
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Andy: I just spoke to a guy named Neil Hanover.
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He is a fund trader for a company in London.
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He asked the head EOL marketer to give him a call about setting him up on the system.
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Can you help?
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john
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can you program my steno in the offices like the ones on my desk?
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Any idea what amount of switching in gas equivalents does the implied demand of resid equate to?
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i know
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the market had to get to a price whereby these guys shut down.
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there is just not enough gas to allow everybody who wants to to burn it.
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the elasticity of demand is in the industrial sector.
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million dollar question is have we gotten to a high enough price whereby we end the year with gas in the ground and deliverability to meet a late cold snap.
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shutdown of processing, distillate and resid switching, loss of industrial load...maybe we have.
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good holidays, john
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asshole
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asshole
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sorry didnt respond to your message.
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