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I do appreciate your offer but I don't want to take away from the amazing year you've had so far. | dev34 |
Maybe you should come trade this... | dev34 |
John | dev34 |
don't know. | dev34 |
think a little bit of everyone as the storage guys own it all. | dev34 |
seems crazy. | dev34 |
if you're willing to ride it for a few cents against you it's a great trade. | dev34 |
who knows where they're going in th eshort term though | dev34 |
i think it is something we need to do. | dev34 |
please set it up | dev34 |
A funny story: Because Access was up 75 cents last night, Nymex made a trading limit of unchanged to +150. | dev34 |
After 20 minutes of trading, we were at unchanged and the exchange stopped trading for an hour. | dev34 |
Rappaport, the exchange president, was standing by to make sure everything was orderly. | dev34 |
Obviously, the locals weren't too happy about the exchange closing. | dev34 |
One yelled at Rappaport... | dev34 |
"Why don't you take your million dollar bonus and go buy Enron stock" | dev34 |
why does everybody in this company know my p&l????? | dev34 |
cant handle the pressure of big money?? | dev34 |
amazing how with cash futures at $1 and the back such a piece that f/g under such pressure. | dev34 |
month 2 has been the strongest part of the board all year. | dev34 |
will be interesting to see what happens when h/j is prompt. | dev34 |
could j actually be strong? | dev34 |
seems like of the spreads on the board the best risk reward is in f/g. | dev34 |
a little worried about having the z/f effect again. | dev34 |
that is, all spec length trying to roll and funds trying to roll at the same time leading to some ridiculous level at expiry. | dev34 |
any thoughts? | dev34 |
a couple more thoughts. | dev34 |
certainly losing lots of indutrial demand both to switching and slowdown in economy. | dev34 |
Big 3 automakers all temporarily closing plants for instance. | dev34 |
switching is significant and has led to cash in the gulf expiring weak everyday. | dev34 |
gas daily spread to prompt trading at $1....need some very cold weather to justify that. | dev34 |
this seems to be the test of the next 3-5 days. | dev34 |
Will the switching/loss of demand/storage management keep cash futures spread at reasonable levels or will it blow to $5+. | dev34 |
Not too many years ago we had a $50 print on the Hub. | dev34 |
unless we get some crazy prints, you have to question the steep backwardation in the market. | dev34 |
funny watching the flies in the front. | dev34 |
Bot large chunk of g/h/j at $.50 friday morning. | dev34 |
probably worth 1.30 now. | dev34 |
crazy. | dev34 |
people have seen each front spread be weak since forever and are already starting to eye up g/h. | dev34 |
what's the thoughts on distillates... | dev34 |
is it tight enough such that gas switching is the marginal mmbtu of demand and pulls it up or is the market too oversupplied to care? | dev34 |
Catherine: Sorry it's been so long since I could respond. | dev34 |
With the craziness here I am way behind on everything. | dev34 |
#2. | dev34 |
volume way down on exchange recently with recent volatility. | dev34 |
volume probably averaging 25000 these days. | dev34 |
EOL volume averaging around 14000. | dev34 |
Very high percent of market. | dev34 |
Current market conditions shows why our transactional model of being one side of every trade is superior. | dev34 |
#3. | dev34 |
good liquidity first 3 years. | dev34 |
okay liquidity years 4-6. | dev34 |
#4. | dev34 |
calendar 2004-2008 maybe 1 trade a day. | dev34 |
70% chance Enron is one side. | dev34 |
calendar 2009-2013 very rare that it trades. | dev34 |
absolutely agree. | dev34 |
the thought is always, even if cash is piece of shit today...wait until the future. | dev34 |
here's my question: what is the environment whereby f/g is worth $.50. | dev34 |
is there a market scenario where this happens? | dev34 |
yep | dev34 |
come by whenever | dev34 |
remember when you said there is a reason they call them bear spreads? | dev34 |
bring up a chart of f/g or g/h. | dev34 |
f/g is tighter now than anytime since march 99 when ff1 was worth 2.50 amazing | dev34 |
and they say it was purely coincidental the announcement came today. | dev34 |
6 is fine. | dev34 |
saw a lot of the bulls sell summer against length in front to mitigate margins/absolute position limits/var. | dev34 |
as these guys are taking off the front, they are also buying back summer. | dev34 |
el paso large buyer of next winter today taking off spreads. | dev34 |
certainly a reason why the spreads were so strong on the way up and such a piece now. | dev34 |
really the only one left with any risk premium built in is h/j now. | dev34 |
it was trading equivalent of 180 on access, down 40+ from this morning. | dev34 |
certainly if we are entering a period of bearish to neutral trade, h/j will get whacked. | dev34 |
certainly understand the arguments for h/j. | dev34 |
if h settles $20, that spread is probably worth $10. | dev34 |
H 20 call was trading for 55 on monday. | dev34 |
today it was 10/17. | dev34 |
the market's view of probability of h going crazy has certainly changed in past 48 hours and that has to be reflected in h/j. | dev34 |
hey: any interest in seeing cirque du soleil saturday? | dev34 |
just called they're on vacation for two weeks.......that sucks | dev34 |
please remind me | dev34 |
Andy: I just spoke to a guy named Neil Hanover. | dev34 |
He is a fund trader for a company in London. | dev34 |
He asked the head EOL marketer to give him a call about setting him up on the system. | dev34 |
Can you help? | dev34 |
john | dev34 |
can you program my steno in the offices like the ones on my desk? | dev34 |
Any idea what amount of switching in gas equivalents does the implied demand of resid equate to? | dev34 |
i know | dev34 |
the market had to get to a price whereby these guys shut down. | dev34 |
there is just not enough gas to allow everybody who wants to to burn it. | dev34 |
the elasticity of demand is in the industrial sector. | dev34 |
million dollar question is have we gotten to a high enough price whereby we end the year with gas in the ground and deliverability to meet a late cold snap. | dev34 |
shutdown of processing, distillate and resid switching, loss of industrial load...maybe we have. | dev34 |
good holidays, john | dev34 |
asshole | dev34 |
asshole | dev34 |
sorry didnt respond to your message. | dev34 |
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