Datasets:

---

idleengine

/

reddit_finance_posts_sp500

like 0

Follow

idleengine 1

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/baby-formula-shortage-milk-monopoly-fda/\n\nA baby formula shortage gripping the U.S. since March has parents in a panic over where and when they’ll be able to find the products they need to feed their kids. The out-of-stock rate, representing the amount of formula that’s not in stock compared to what’s typically available, was 43% for the week ending May 8, according to Datasembly, a provider of real-time product data for retailers and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands. With no easy end in sight, caregivers nationwide have been forced to devote their free time to driving between stores in search of formula, prompting retailers to limit the number of cans customers can buy. Others have turned to Facebook groups and informal support networks to acquire the nutritional products that work best for their kids. “I've looked online, I have my mom in Boston looking, my mother-in-law in Florida looking,” Elyssa Schmier previously told Fortune about her trouble finding formula for her 8-month-old son. “Everyone we know is looking for us and no one can find it.”\n\nHow did a baby formula crisis spring up in one of the world’s richest countries? Experts say a recall by one of the industry’s largest manufacturers, persistent supply-chain issues, and a market dominated by only a few players have combined to form what one consumer goods expert calls a “perfect storm” affecting the supply of essential formula to millions of babies across the U.S. And the shortage could last for months. \n\nHere’s how we got here. The baby formula market exists as a shared monopoly, with only a few manufacturers controlling nearly all supply. Abbott had an approximately 43% market share a decade ago, according to a USDA report from 2011 — the most recent number available. Little has changed since then. The company still maintains exclusive provider contracts in many states with WIC, the USDA’s supplemental nutrition program for low-income families, which makes up nearly half of formula sales nationwide. A few other manufacturers, including Mead-Johnson and Nestlé, also have WIC contracts and control the rest of the market. In addition to its highly concentrated structure, the baby formula market is difficult for another reason. Its demand is set by the nation’s birth rate, and the market has been shrinking for years. The number of births has declined every year since 2008, except for 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. With only a few key players whose capacities are tied to a shrinking market, repercussions are inevitable when anything gets in the way of a certain product getting to store shelves. Other manufacturers are bound to struggle with an influx of new demand from consumers who can’t get what they’d typically buy. “The dilemma [manufacturers] have is that it's not a very lucrative market,” says Patrick Penfield, a professor of supply chain management at Syracuse University. “The only way you can grow your market share is if you’re aggressively going after competition.” Because Abbott is one of the biggest players in the game already, significantly expanding its share is not really an option. “If you can't grow your market share, then you look at how you can reduce costs,” says Penfield. “And sometimes when you reduce the costs, you may not have the right protocols or procedures in place to make sure that you're doing things properly.” “I’m not saying that's what Abbott Laboratories did,” he cautions. “But that would be an assumption of mine.”\n\nAbbott is not the only entity possibly at fault. “There's plenty of blame to go around here,” says Scott Faber, a professor at Georgetown University’s law center and vice president of government affairs at Environmental Working Group, a nonprofit aimed at empowering consumers. Faber sees the FDA itself as in part responsible for the shortage. The agency, he says, did not react fast enough to the whistleblower report and should have conducted a plant inspection sooner. “When a drunk driver causes a car crash, the drunk driver bears much of the blame, but so does the bartender who looked the other way while serving one too many drinks,” he says. When submitting the report for the record last month, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) wrote: “I am equally concerned that the FDA reacted far too slowly to this report. The report was submitted to the FDA on Oct. 20, 2021. The FDA did not interview the whistleblower until late December 2021. According to news reports, FDA did not inspect the plant in person until Jan. 31, 2022, and the recall was not issued until Feb. 17, 2022.” The agency did not finish its inspection and issue observations to Abbott until March 18. The company says that it has been working since then to update its education and training protocols as well as its cleaning and maintenance procedures. “The FDA would not have shut down that factory if they didn’t find anything. So there's definitely some type of noncompliance that's going on,” Penfield says. Now the FDA is working to catch up to a crisis that seems to have been unfolding in slow motion for months."

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.yardeni.com/pub/yriearningsforecast.pdf\n\nhttps://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/sp-500-eps-est.xlsx\n\n||Yardeni|Research|Analysts'|Consensus|\n:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|\n||Level|YOY %|Level|YOY %|\n|2019|162.97 a|0.6|162.97 a|0.6|\n|Q1|39.15 a|2.8|39.15 a|2.8|\n|Q2|41.31 a|0.8|41.31 a|0.8|\n|Q3|42.14 a|-1.2|42.14 a|-1.2|\n|Q4|42.00 a|2.0|41.99 a|2.0|\n|2020|139.76 a|-14.2|139.76 a|-14.2|\n|Q1|33.13 a|-15.4|33.13 a|-15.4|\n|Q2|27.98 a|-32.3|27.98 a|-32.3|\n|Q3|38.69 a|-8.2|38.69 a|-8.2|\n|Q4|42.60 a|1.4|42.60 a|1.5|\n|2021|208.53 a|49.2|208.53 a|49.2|\n|Q1|49.13 a|48.3|49.13 a|48.3|\n|Q2|52.75 a|88.5|52.75 a|88.5|\n|Q3|53.89 a|39.3|53.89 a|39.3|\n|Q4|54.05 a|26.9|54.05 a|26.9|\n|2022|225.00 e|7.9|229.22 e|9.9|\n|Q1|54.82 e|11.6|54.82 e|11.6|\n|Q2|56.00 e|6.2|55.45 e|5.1|\n|Q3|57.00 e|5.8|59.63 e|10.7|\n|Q4|57.00 e|5.5|61.08 e|13.0|\n|2023|240.00 e|6.7|251.50 e|9.7|\n\nI'm not sure exactly what number to cherrypick from what report to get the conversation started here.\n\nObviously, most of us are not professional analysts, so we are pretty far from \"the best person for the job\" when it comes to giving an educated opinion on such a robust economic topic.\n\n2021 earnings: 208.49\n\n2022 earnings estimate: 225\n\n2023 earnings estimate: 240\n\nWhy are S&P earnings estimated to grow 8% from 2021 -> 2022, and 6.66% 2022 -> 2023? If markets are forward looking... why does it feel like there's still a bit of wiggle room for future earnings estimates to be adjusted downwards? Why are markets being optimistic instead of pessimistic?\n\nI pulled up the top 100 companies of the S&P by earnings TTM (not EPS, EPS * # shares outstanding). Top 100 companies make up 65% of the market cap and 73% of the earnings for the S&P500\n\n|Name|\n:--|\n|Apple Inc.|\n|Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B|\n|Alphabet Inc. Class C|\n|Alphabet Inc. Class A|\n|Microsoft Corporation|\n|JPMorgan Chase & Co.|\n|Meta Platforms Inc. Class A|\n|Bank of America Corp|\n|Exxon Mobil Corporation|\n|Pfizer Inc.|\n|Intel Corporation|\n|Verizon Communications Inc.|\n|Amazon.com Inc.|\n|Chevron Corporation|\n|Johnson & Johnson|\n|Wells Fargo & Company|\n|Goldman Sachs Group Inc.|\n|UnitedHealth Group Incorporated|\n|AT&T Inc.|\n|Citigroup Inc.|\n|Home Depot Inc.|\n|Moderna Inc.|\n|Procter & Gamble Company|\n|Merck & Co. Inc.|\n|Comcast Corporation Class A|\n|Morgan Stanley|\n|Visa Inc. Class A|\n|Walmart Inc.|\n|ConocoPhillips|\n|AbbVie Inc.|\n|Cisco Systems Inc.|\n|Ford Motor Company|\n|Qualcomm Incorporated|\n|United Parcel Service Inc. Class B|\n|Coca-Cola Company|\n|PepsiCo Inc.|\n|Capital One Financial Corp|\n|NVIDIA Corporation|\n|Mastercard Incorporated Class A|\n|American International Group Inc.|\n|Micron Technology Inc.|\n|Philip Morris International Inc.|\n|General Motors Company|\n|Tesla Inc|\n|Broadcom Inc.|\n|Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.|\n|Texas Instruments Incorporated|\n|Chubb Limited|\n|CVS Health Corporation|\n|Lowe's Companies Inc.|\n|Abbott Laboratories|\n|Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.|\n|American Express Company|\n|Nucor Corporation|\n|McDonald's Corporation|\n|Accenture Plc Class A|\n|U.S. Bancorp|\n|Dow Inc.|\n|Oracle Corporation|\n|Union Pacific Corporation|\n|Applied Materials Inc.|\n|Occidental Petroleum Corporation|\n|Eli Lilly and Company|\n|Caterpillar Inc.|\n|Danaher Corporation|\n|HCA Healthcare Inc|\n|MetLife Inc.|\n|Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc|\n|BlackRock Inc.|\n|Bristol-Myers Squibb Company|\n|Lockheed Martin Corporation|\n|NIKE Inc. Class B|\n|Truist Financial Corporation|\n|Deere & Company|\n|HP Inc.|\n|LyondellBasell Industries NV|\n|Target Corporation|\n|Northrop Grumman Corp.|\n|Costco Wholesale Corporation|\n|International Business Machines Corporation|\n|3M Company|\n|Amgen Inc.|\n|Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A|\n|Honeywell International Inc.|\n|Cigna Corporation|\n|Charles Schwab Corp|\n|Freeport-McMoRan Inc.|\n|Netflix Inc.|\n|Medtronic Plc|\n|D.R. Horton Inc.|\n|PNC Financial Services Group Inc.|\n|Adobe Incorporated|\n|S&P Global Inc.|\n|Charter Communications Inc. Class A|\n|Discover Financial Services|\n|FedEx Corporation|\n|Prudential Financial Inc.|\n|Gilead Sciences Inc.|\n|Lam Research Corporation​|\n\nGo through the list yourself and just ask yourself \"what's the growth case for this company if the country is in a very mild recession and consumers have less free cash to spend on goods/services due to increased living expenses like gas + energy + housing + food due to inflation and the federal reserve is making debt for financing growth slightly more expensive have previously\"\n\nThen ask yourself... why is 8% growth for this financial year priced in then? If you disagree that those 100 companies (or the bottom 400) could grow 8%... doesn't that mean we have more room to fall from S&P500 3800 -> some other number?"