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Total U. S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 1. | 1,998 | 1 |
The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2 At present, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is running somewhat below our 2 percent objective, but we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective. | 1,999 | 2 |
In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year. | 2,021 | 0 |
Required down payments, usually about half of the home's purchase price, excluded many households from the market. | 2,020 | 2 |
Some participants judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the downside, particularly in the near term, in light of the large amount of resource slack already prevailing in the economy, the significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity, and the possibility that inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to low actual inflation. | 2,006 | 0 |
An important element in interpreting financial market prices is the identification of the risk premiums they contain. | 2,004 | 2 |
Some members commented, however, that the relationship between the output gap and inflation was quite loose and that the outlook for productivity remained uncertain. | 2,013 | 2 |
Real outlays for office and computing equipment continued to grow rapidly as prices of personal computers and networking equipment remained on a steep downtrend. | 2,008 | 2 |
Employment had risen a little, but not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and labor productivity seemed to be trending sharply upward. | 2,005 | 2 |
* * * What then are the implications of this largely irreducible uncertainty for the conduct of monetary policy? | 1,999 | 2 |
While the current episode has not yet concluded, it appears that, responding vigorously in a relatively flexible economy to the aftermath of bubbles, as traumatic as that may be, is less inhibiting to long-term growth than chronic high-inflation monetary policy. | 2,017 | 1 |
This was a somewhat sharper effect than was anticipated at the beginning of the year and accounts for a small part of the forecast error on inflation. | 2,004 | 2 |
In the productivity boom that followed World War I, a chief technological innovation was the spread of electrification to the factory floor. | 2,021 | 2 |
U.S. monetary policy responded to these global "headwinds," helping stave off actual contractions of U.S. activity. | 2,000 | 0 |
These communications were, as you would expect, biased--they were all in response to decisions to raise interest rates and most often occurred when those increases came shortly before an election. | 2,003 | 1 |
With sales contracting and inventory imbalances still substantial, the manufacturing sector continued its sharp slide, and aggregate employment plunged. | 2,007 | 0 |
Moreover, the absence of significant growth in employment, should it persist, could at some point have significant adverse repercussions on consumer spending. | 2,011 | 0 |
Labor demand remained strong, and the labor market continued to be very tight. | 2,005 | 0 |
Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared for the January FOMC meeting, the staff's projection for the growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the near term was revised down a bit. | 2,012 | 0 |
Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker. | 2,002 | 2 |
Most believed that downside risks to economic growth had diminished somewhat since the April meeting, but were still significant. | 2,021 | 0 |
Long-term unemployment in the current economy is—is the worst—really the worst it’s been in the postwar period. | 2,012 | 0 |
While accommodative financial conditions and reduced income tax rates should continue to undergird consumer spending and the data on retail sales for July displayed relatively impressive gains, negative wealth effects from falling stock market prices, declining payrolls, and sluggish income gains--should they persist--might well depress consumer expenditures over coming months. | 2,017 | 0 |
The resulting uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the future path of activity, unemployment, and inflation. | 2,020 | 2 |
The considerable monetary ease already in place, the prospect of significantly more fiscal stimulus, the continuing strong gains in structural productivity, and the anticipated improvement in business confidence would provide significant impetus to spending. | 2,020 | 2 |
Share prices of financial firms fell especially sharply, reportedly a reflection, in part, of concerns about exposures to subprime mortgages and about the effect of a potential slowdown in merger activity on operating profits. | 2,003 | 2 |
Economic DevelopmentsReal economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. | 1,997 | 1 |
But an intriguing alternative is to set a target for the price level. | 2,022 | 2 |
Prominent among these risks were a possible intensification of strains in the euro zone, with potential spillovers to U. S. financial markets and institutions and thus to the broader U. S. economy; a larger-than-expected U. S. fiscal tightening; and the possibility of a further slowdown in global economic growth. | 2,005 | 0 |
Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment; these participants noted the risk that such cautious attitudes toward hiring could slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalized. | 2,014 | 0 |
Measures of core inflation remained much more subdued, although they also moved up in some countries. | 2,013 | 0 |
The early days of stabilization policy in the 1950s taught monetary policymakers not to attempt to offset what are likely to be temporary fluctuations in inflation.15 Indeed, responding may do more harm than good, particularly in an era where policy rates are much closer to the effective lower bound even in good times. | 2,004 | 0 |
The shift in the stance of monetary policy that we undertook in 2019 was, I believe, well timed and has been providing support to the economy and helping to keep the U.S. outlook on track. | 2,017 | 2 |
The October SLOOS suggested that the recent slowdown in mortgage originations for home purchases was partly attributable to weaker demand. | 2,002 | 0 |
"4 Importantly, the level of uncertainty around the paths for inflation and employment are higher than normal as we navigate the unprecedented reopening of the world economy. | 2,007 | 2 |
Reserve balances are one among several items on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and demand for these liabilities—notably, currency in circulation—grows over time. | 2,020 | 2 |
If labor demand cools, will separations increase and shift the curve outward, increasing unemployment further? | 2,001 | 0 |
In the housing sector, demand had continued to display appreciable strength in recent months in association with relatively moderate mortgage rates and very positive consumer assessments of homebuying conditions. | 2,009 | 2 |
The recent depreciation of the dollar, while perhaps putting some upward pressure on prices, would damp the deterioration in net U. S. exports. | 2,011 | 1 |
Similarly, I don't think we yet fully understand the role of Year 2000 preparations in either the late 1990s investment boom or the acceleration in productivity. | 2,020 | 2 |
Assisted by the whole array of market prices, entrepreneurs seek to identify the types of products and services that individuals will value, especially the added value placed on products and services that customers find better tailored to their particular needs, delivered in shorter time frames, or improved in quality. | 2,004 | 2 |
Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated; in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time. | 2,011 | 1 |
Indeed, the discrepancy between actual and predicted money growth was sufficiently large that the P* model, if not subjected to judgmental adjustments, would have predicted deflation for 1991 and 1992. | 2,021 | 2 |
Here is where unit labor costs, or specifically the relationship between productivity growth and wage increases, would come into play. | 1,999 | 2 |
With regard to the outlook for inflation, members referred to widespread indications of increasingly tight labor markets and to statistical and anecdotal reports of faster increases in labor compensation. | 2,015 | 1 |
To summarize these international data, one might say that something brought inflation down in the 1980s and 1990s, but success was fairly uniform across both the inflation-targeting and nontargeting countries. | 2,007 | 2 |
We must keep in mind that, difficult as the problem seems, consistently measured prices do exist in principle. | 2,021 | 2 |
Recent data, supported by anecdotal reports from several though not all parts of the country, suggested that residential building activity was slowing somewhat, apparently in lagged response to earlier increases in mortgage interest rates. | 2,007 | 1 |
Analysis suggests it could take many years with a formal AIT rule to return the price level to target following a lower-bound episode, and a mechanical AIT rule is likely to become increasingly difficult to explain and implement as conditions change over time.15 In contrast, FAIT is better suited for the highly uncertain and dynamic context in which policymaking takes place. | 2,004 | 0 |
Most projected somewhat slower growth through next year, and a smaller reduction in unemployment, than they had projected in April. | 2,005 | 0 |
Besley, Meads and Surico's contribution is to ask whether certain characteristics of the policymakers matter for how they vote on the monetary policy committee. | 2,000 | 2 |
With the restraint from fiscal policy assumed to increase next year, the staff projected that increases in real GDP would not significantly exceed the growth rate of potential output in 2013. | 2,003 | 2 |
1 The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. | 2,011 | 2 |
Fiscal austerity is the one tried and true approach to dealing with budget and trade deficits simultaneously. | 1,999 | 1 |
Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income. | 1,997 | 1 |
Stimulus checks put money in people's pockets, and when they spend it, there will be upward pressure on prices. | 2,006 | 1 |
A couple of participants pointed to the decline in credit spreads to relatively low levels by historical standards; one of these participants noted the risk of either a sharp rise in spreads, which could have negative repercussions for aggregate demand, or a continuation of the decline in spreads, which could undermine financial stability over time. | 2,011 | 0 |
They noted that the realization of such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run. | 1,996 | 2 |
The GDP (in real terms, after inflation) has been growing continuously for eight years and this long expansion, instead of petering out, has accelerated in the last couple of years. | 2,020 | 1 |
Prices, interest rates, stock prices, and other signals produced by market economies to encourage the distribution of productive resources have no inherent moral content. | 2,005 | 2 |
However, other measures of labor utilization--including the labor force participation rate and the numbers of discouraged workers and those working part time for economic reasons--suggested more modest improvement, and other indicators of labor demand, such as rates of hiring and quits, remained low. | 2,006 | 2 |
This equation relates inflation to, among other factors, lagged inflation, resource utilization, and movements in the relative price of imports excluding energy, semiconductors, and computers. | 2,003 | 2 |
However, with the contraction in housing activity expected to abate this year, the pace of economic growth was anticipated to edge back up to a level that was close to the staff's estimate of potential output growth by the end of 2007 and to remain in that same range throughout 2008. | 2,008 | 2 |
While favorable financing would help to sustain the housing sector, members anticipated that any further impetus to growth from that sector was likely to be limited. | 2,002 | 2 |
In a traditional growth accounting setup, these effects would show up in multifactor productivity growth. | 2,021 | 2 |
A currency board and dollarization are tighter versions of a fixed exchange rate regime--that is, fixed exchange rate systems from which it is progressively more costly to exit. | 1,997 | 2 |
And if the stock theory of the portfolio is correct, which we believe it is, holding all of those securities off of the market and reinvesting and still keeping the, you know, rolling-over maturing securities, will still continue to put downward pressure on interest rates. | 2,013 | 0 |
However, reports from a couple of Districts indicated that the agricultural sector was still weak, with low commodity prices continuing to put financial pressure on farm-related businesses. | 2,000 | 0 |
Long-term government bond yields declined and headline equity indexes increased, on net, in most of these countries, with bank stock prices in the euro area rising more than broader indexes. | 2,022 | 0 |
Funding of our current account deficit likely will become more difficult when home bias approaches its practical minimum. | 2,021 | 1 |
This difficulty of forecasting inflation has important implications, as we shall see. | 2,003 | 2 |
At some point, continued large-scale trade deficits could trigger equilibrating, and possibly dislocating, changes in prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. | 2,022 | 1 |
Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year; sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring. | 2,003 | 2 |
Indeed, virtually every forecast projects a modest rise in broad measures of U.S. inflation this year, reflecting the dissipation or reversal of favorable supply shocks, most importantly the reversal in the path of oil prices, the stabilization of commodity prices and non-oil import prices, and some rebound in health care costs. | 2,021 | 1 |
Certainly, if we are to remain preeminent in transforming knowledge into economic value, the U.S. system of higher education must remain the world's leader in generating scientific and technological breakthroughs and in preparing workers to meet the evolving demands for skilled labor. | 2,007 | 2 |
He also judged that the policy step would do little to improve near-term growth prospects, given the ongoing structural adjustments and external challenges faced by the U. S. economy. | 2,010 | 2 |
Notwithstanding the shift toward monetary policy committees, each central bank and its institutional structure reflects the politics and culture of the country that it serves (or "countries" in the case of the European Central Bank). | 2,003 | 2 |
Later I shall turn to concerns about imbalances in equity prices, the personal saving rate, the current account, and the household debt burden. | 2,005 | 2 |
Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, "computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics. | 2,006 | 2 |
M2 growth picked up appreciably during December and January, evidently reflecting extra demands for liquidity and safety during the century-date-change period. | 2,008 | 0 |
Setting the horizon on the interest rate caps to reinforce forward guidance on the policy rate would augment the credibility of the yield curve caps and thereby diminish concerns about an open-ended balance sheet commitment. | 2,006 | 2 |
Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial market implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate to trace price trends over time? | 2,005 | 2 |
Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had picked up, while business fixed investment had continued to grow strongly. | 2,007 | 1 |
The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. | 1,998 | 0 |
Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term. | 2,007 | 1 |
In several Districts, reports from business contacts or evidence from surveys pointed to some difficulty in finding qualified workers; in some cases, labor shortages were making it hard to fill customer demand or expand business. | 1,997 | 2 |
Three Questions The first question is, "Can the Federal Reserve best meet its statutory objectives with its existing monetary policy strategy, or should it consider strategies that aim to reverse past misses of the inflation objective?" | 2,007 | 2 |
During this time of reopening, we are likely to see some upward pressure on prices, and I’ll discuss why. | 2,017 | 0 |
Later in the period, AFE yields partially rebounded and foreign equity prices fully recovered on some easing of U. S. –China trade tensions, as well as perceptions of reduced political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and Italy. | 2,022 | 2 |
In addition, though the unemployment rate has fallen since the middle of 2003, the participation rate currently remains near the low point reached in the first half of 2004. | 2,019 | 1 |
Their key finding, illustrated in figure 3, is that Federal Reserve policy rate surprises attributed to stronger U.S. growth generally have only moderate spillovers to EM financial conditions, whereas U.S. policy rate changes attributed to U.S. inflationary pressures trigger more substantial spillovers to EM financial conditions. | 1,999 | 2 |
Although prospects for economic activity had not deteriorated significantly since the March meeting, the outlook for growth and employment remained weak and slack in resource utilization was likely to increase. | 2,000 | 0 |
Unfortunately, from the point of view of both the analyst and the policymaker, the link between an asset's price and the structure of its return is hard to pin down, as it typically embodies complex factors that are inherently difficult to measure, such as expected future earnings, riskiness, and risk aversion. | 2,005 | 2 |
Overall employment gains were relatively well maintained, and labor markets were still tight though showing signs of softening. | 2,012 | 2 |
I would like to address two aspects of the issue of underemployment of minorities: first, the implications of ignoring the potential that already exists and, second, the need to encourage young people to seek the types of education and training that will meet the demands of work in the twenty-first century. | 2,001 | 0 |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been responsible for monetary policy decisions in the United States since it was established by the Banking Act of 1935, two decades after the founding of the Fed itself.2 The movement toward committees reflects the advantages of committees in aggregating a wide range of information, perspectives, and models. | 2,007 | 2 |
Inflation expectations that currently appeared by various measures and survey results to be essentially flat or even to have declined a bit were reinforcing the factors holding down price increases. | 2,004 | 2 |
The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. " | 2,013 | 0 |
Business spending on equipment and structures was anticipated to continue to outpace the overall expansion of the economy, though the differential would tend to narrow over time in association with the gradual diminution of increases in sales and profits that was expected to be associated with moderating economic growth. | 2,000 | 2 |
It will include all data relevant to our dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. | 2,020 | 2 |
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