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In the household sector, mortgage debt increased at its lowest pace since the late 1990s, reflecting the continued deceleration in house prices. | 2,010 | 0 |
Information on the price expectations of businesses--who are, after all, the price setters in the first instance--as well as information on nominal wage expectations is particularly scarce. | 1,998 | 2 |
If we adjust the 6.7 percent headline unemployment rate for the decline in participation since February and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of misclassification, the unemployment rate would be 10 percent, similar to the peak following the Global Financial Crisis. | 2,019 | 1 |
Moreover, the staff still judged that the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were tilted to the downside, with a corresponding skew to the upside for the unemployment rate. | 2,002 | 0 |
So let me talk about the coronavirus specifically, and then I’ll turn more to global growth more generally. | 2,019 | 2 |
For now, the Committee should remain particularly vigilant to incoming information bearing on the outlook for inflation. | 2,007 | 2 |
Participants also noted that unemployment insurance claims continued to run at a historically elevated level, but the proportion of laid-off workers who expected to be recalled was unusually large. | 2,003 | 0 |
Yet as research has repeatedly demonstrated, these sorts of fundamentals only explain a small part of the variation in the prices of assets such as equities, long-term Treasury securities, and corporate bonds. | 1,999 | 2 |
In response to an unanticipated movement in spending and hence the quantity of money demanded, a small variation in interest rates would be sufficient to bring money back to path but not to correct the deviation in spending. | 2,005 | 0 |
With regard to the outlook for inflation, the gap between actual and potential output was anticipated to diminish only slowly unless aggregate demand expanded much more rapidly than the members currently foresaw. | 2,007 | 2 |
Inflation has declined further below our longer-run objective, largely reflecting the lower energy prices I just mentioned. | 2,012 | 0 |
Looking ahead, FOMC participants project the unemployment rate to continue to decline; the median projection is 5 percent at the end of next year and moves below 4 percent by 2023. | 2,012 | 2 |
Inflation had been subdued, even though the prices of some key commodities had increased recently. | 2,016 | 2 |
Developments during the Second Period: 1998-2007 Research during the past ten years has been very fruitful in expanding the profession's understanding of the implications of uncertainty for the design and conduct of monetary policy. | 1,999 | 2 |
Although many participants remained concerned about downside risks attending the outlook for inflation, a majority of participants saw the risks to the outlook for inflation as balanced. | 2,005 | 2 |
But, by June, prices had risen 4 percent over the previous 12 months, ticked up to 4.2 percent in July, and increased further to 4.3 percent in August. | 2,004 | 1 |
One member anticipated little if any effect on economic growth and unemployment and did not agree that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called for further policy accommodation. | 1,999 | 2 |
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that federal tax increases and spending cuts will slow the pace of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth about 1-1/2 percentage points this year.3 Tight fiscal policy may also be preventing faster reductions in unemployment. | 2,003 | 0 |
These decisions can then push up prices even more and make inflation harder to get under control. | 2,003 | 1 |
Members commented that added fiscal stimulus might prove to be a useful complement to an accommodative monetary policy in the period immediately ahead when economic activity was likely to remain below the economy's potential. | 2,009 | 0 |
The distortions in the markets I have reviewed do not appear all that large, given the stance of monetary policy, and should we experience much higher interest rates and softer asset prices our resilient markets and flexible economy probably could absorb such a shock. | 2,004 | 1 |
I have downplayed the role of the U.S. federal budget deficit today, and I disagree with the view, sometimes heard, that balancing the federal budget by itself would largely defuse the current account issue. | 2,003 | 2 |
In addition to directly affecting longer-term interest rates, changes to the balance sheet could serve to reinforce policy communication associated with the short-term rate. | 2,021 | 2 |
The members expected price pressures to remain relatively contained over the next several quarters in the context of what they anticipated would be only a gradual reduction of the excess capacity in labor and product markets as the recovery progressed. | 2,006 | 2 |
In these circumstances, the Committee believed that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured but noted that it would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. | 2,010 | 1 |
Such second-round effects are likely to be quite limited as long as the rise in the relative price of energy does not lead to a rise in long-run inflation expectations, as has largely been the case in the recent period (figure 1). | 2,005 | 1 |
In general, financial markets were viewed as well positioned to support more vigorous expansion in economic activity. | 2,017 | 0 |
To see this, suppose that a speculative bubble has emerged and that a central bank, operating under a conventional strategy, has raised interest rates to keep the projected output gap closed and expected inflation at its desired level before the bubble bursts. | 2,003 | 1 |
Major stock price indexes were up a bit over the intermeeting period, as positive first-quarter earnings reports more than offset the negative effects of higher energy prices and rising interest rates. | 2,017 | 1 |
Nevertheless, the staff continued to forecast that real GDP growth would pick up only gradually in 2012 and 2013, supported by accommodative monetary policy, easing credit conditions, and improvements in consumer and business sentiment. | 2,014 | 0 |
There appears to have been some evolution in inflation-targeting regimes toward greater flexibility. | 2,004 | 0 |
The growth of subprime mortgage lending is one indication of the extent to which access to credit has increased for all households, including those with lower incomes. | 1,997 | 2 |
Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at least at the current pace to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. | 2,008 | 0 |
(4') U** = U* - (1/b) [q - q*] U** = short-run or effective NAIRU However, once productivity growth stabilizes at a higher level, q* will eventually catch up to q, and the disinflationary effect will gradually diminish and then completely disappear. | 2,007 | 2 |
But what if the Fed were actually to propose a soft form of inflation targeting? | 2,004 | 1 |
In discussing the increases in U. S. longer-term interest rates that occurred in the wake of the June FOMC meeting and the associated press conference, meeting participants pointed to heightened financial market uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and a shift of market expectations toward less policy accommodation. | 2,001 | 1 |
The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to suggest that the expansion would gradually moderate from its currently elevated pace to a rate around, or perhaps a little below, the growth of the economy's estimated potential. | 2,019 | 2 |
In response to the resulting high inflation, the Fed was obliged to raise interest rates, and the economy weakened. | 2,005 | 1 |
Moreover, if declines in house prices were to damp consumption, that could feed back on employment and income, exerting additional restraint on the demand for housing. | 2,003 | 0 |
Improved prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China and accommodative monetary policy were cited as driving factors that outweighed weaker-than-expected announcements of corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018 and earnings projections for 2019. | 2,006 | 0 |
The shock that the—from the pandemic was unprecedented both in its nature and in its size and in the amount of unemployment that it created and in the shock to economic activity. | 2,012 | 0 |
The September FOMC meeting was the first since the Committee approved in August our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and adopted a new policy framework.3 The changes we made in our September FOMC statement bring our policy guidance in line with this new framework. | 2,006 | 2 |
One prominent example is with semiconductor producers and their need to dramatically alter the mix of production to meet demands of the high-tech and automotive industries. | 2,001 | 2 |
Some contacts indicated that while input costs were higher, it appeared that the pass-through of these higher costs to consumer prices was limited. | 2,018 | 2 |
The large current account deficit was seen as a factor pointing to potential depreciation of the dollar over time, with adverse repercussions on domestic inflation albeit favorable effects on exports. | 2,010 | 1 |
Here's a wonderful game: Assume that the ECB governing council or the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee replaced the Federal Open Market Committee and made monetary policy in the United States--or vice versa. | 1,999 | 2 |
While moderating the pace of purchases and the eventual increase in the federal funds rate may well affect capital flows, interest rates and asset prices in EMEs, the overall macroeconomic effects need not be disruptive. | 2,019 | 1 |
Ensuring that every American has the chance to improve his or her economic circumstances through hard work, saving, entrepreneurship, and other productive activities is essential for building healthy communities and achieving sustainable economic growth. | 1,997 | 2 |
An intuitive way of thinking about this rise and fall in inflation persistence is that it resulted from an un-anchoring of trend inflation during the period of the Great Inflation, and a re-anchoring in recent years, as the work of Stock and Watson suggests. | 2,004 | 2 |
The weakness in commodity prices and the appreciation of the dollar also continued to weigh on activity in the energy and agricultural sectors. | 2,001 | 0 |
Over the long run, real labor compensation tends to track labor productivity. | 1,997 | 2 |
With capacity utilization already at high levels, relatively rapid growth in inventory investment, if it were superimposed on stronger-than- projected expansion in final demand, could portend serious pressures on resources and inflationary consequences for the economy. | 2,020 | 1 |
For the twelve months ended in September, prices of consumer items other than food and energy increased by a considerably smaller amount than in the year- earlier period. | 2,007 | 2 |
In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent would be appropriate. | 2,021 | 0 |
Real residential investment appeared to have declined again in the fourth quarter, likely reflecting in part decreases in the affordability of housing arising from both the net increase in mortgage interest rates over the past year and ongoing, though somewhat slower, house price appreciation. | 2,008 | 1 |
A more-timely data source, average hourly earnings, decelerated slightly to a 4.4 percent annual rate over the third quarter, down from 4.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter. | 2,004 | 2 |
Consequently, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. | 2,019 | 0 |
Computing power may not be falling in price quite so rapidly now as in the late 1990s, but a dollar nevertheless buys a great deal more computational capacity today than it did even five years ago. | 2,008 | 2 |
The result could be cross-border spillovers from the increase in U.S. domestic demand, reducing the effect on U.S. real activity and inflation and potentially contributing to external imbalances. | 2,020 | 2 |
For example, changes in U.S. short-term interest rates seem to exert a substantial influence on euro area bond yields (Ehrmann, Fratzscher, and Rigobon, 2005; Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker. | 2,004 | 2 |
This is modeled by assuming that wage change depends on q*, while the inflation equation (based on the markup equation) depends on q. | 2,003 | 2 |
Over this period, inflation remained above most definitions of price stability, and the Federal Reserve was not actively seeking to reduce it. | 1,997 | 2 |
Participants expected that, with further gradual increases in the federal funds rate, economic activity would expand at a solid rate during the remainder of this year and a moderate pace in the medium term, and that labor market conditions would remain strong. | 2,008 | 1 |
The foreign exchange value of the dollar, which depreciated immediately following the FOMC's November announcement of further asset purchases, subsequently appreciated amid intensifying concerns about stresses in the euro area and some apparent reassessment by investors of the monetary policy outlook in the United States. | 2,007 | 0 |
Businesses added a bit to their inventory positions after an extended period of sizable declines, but final sales changed little: business capital spending weakened somewhat further while growth in consumer spending, residential housing expenditures, and government outlays slowed. | 2,000 | 2 |
Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand. | 2,021 | 2 |
Although inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, it seems natural to expect, as others have argued, that these developments would have exerted some downward pressure on inflation in the United States. | 2,006 | 0 |
At earlier stages of processing, the producer price index for core intermediate materials continued to decline through May, albeit at a slower pace than that seen at the end of 2008. | 2,016 | 0 |
Operating Strategies and the FOMC Meeting Now that we appreciate the challenging nature of monetary policy, we are ready to develop a strategy for implementing open market operations. | 2,001 | 2 |
In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting. | 2,022 | 2 |
Moreover, a 50 basis point reduction that was associated with the communication of a Committee view that the risks to achieving its objectives for economic activity were balanced might be mistakenly interpreted in the view of some members as a signal that the Committee had come to the end of its policy easing moves--a judgment they were not prepared to make at this time. | 2,018 | 0 |
Largely as a consequence of rapidly expanding "new economy" investments, gains in productivity had occurred at remarkable rates in recent years. | 2,022 | 2 |
The Committee's accompanying statement noted that economic growth had slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market. | 2,004 | 0 |
Already, various trimmed price indexes are running much closer to 2 percent. | 2,007 | 2 |
May 21, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York (via webcast) Share Accessible Keys for Video [Space Bar] toggles play/pause; [Right/Left Arrows] seeks the video forwards and back (5 sec ); [Up/Down Arrows] increase/decrease volume; [M] toggles mute on/off; [F] toggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11); The [Tab] key may be used in combination with the [Enter/Return] key to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off. | 2,017 | 2 |
In July, the range for M3 had been raised by two percentage points to reflect developments that seemed to be fostering a return to the historical pattern of somewhat faster growth in M3 than in M2. | 2,006 | 0 |
The Committee's accompanying statement indicated that economic growth had been quite strong so far this year. | 1,998 | 1 |
Same thing with economic activity. | 2,012 | 2 |
Returns on indexed bonds are tied to forecasts of specific published price indexes, which may or may not reflect the market's judgment of the future purchasing power of money. | 2,020 | 2 |
During the past several years, workers across the wage distribution--not just at the upper end--have seen noticeable increases in the inflation-adjusted value of their wages. | 2,000 | 1 |
While a constant rate of money growth will not always be optimal, if money demand is sufficiently stable, and not particularly interest sensitive, it will pin down inflation in the long run and help smooth the business cycle in the short run. | 1,999 | 0 |
However, if real (or nominal) government spending is held constant, the surplus will rise over time as a share of GDP, putting downward pressure on the equilibrium real rate, offsetting, at least in part, the effect on the real rate of the higher trend productivity. | 2,005 | 0 |
In agriculture, depressed levels of crop prices and weak global demand continued to weaken farm income. | 2,017 | 0 |
In response to evidence of a slowdown in economic activity and a rapid waning of inflationary pressures, central banks around the world eased policy sharply. | 1,997 | 0 |
In contrast, Spanish economic activity stagnated in the third quarter, Greek GDP extended its decline, and more-recent indicators point to continued weakness in peripheral European economies. | 2,018 | 2 |
Consumer prices jumped in October, as hurricane damage contributed to higher prices for food and energy. | 2,014 | 1 |
The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity. | 2,001 | 0 |
Labor cost increases had not turned up and core inflation continued to edge lower. | 2,005 | 0 |
Key factors that influence consumer spending--including a low unemployment rate, ongoing gains in real labor compensation, and still elevated measures of households' net worth--were supportive of a pickup in consumer spending to a solid pace in the near term. | 2,005 | 1 |
Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low, while survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance. | 2,020 | 0 |
In particular, a surprise tightening of policy raises the risk premium, lowering current stock prices, and a surprise easing lowers the risk premium, raising current stock prices. | 2,021 | 2 |
The U. S. international trade deficit narrowed in May, as a large increase in exports of goods and services more than offset a moderate increase in imports. | 2,010 | 0 |
A third factor underpinning longer-run prospects for growth is the sustained strong uptrend in labor productivity. | 2,005 | 0 |
Participants' assessments of the economic outlook were little changed, with the intermeeting information generally seen as suggesting that economic growth would remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually. | 1,999 | 2 |
In its March forecast, the staff's projection for real GDP growth over the medium term was somewhat higher than the one presented in January, mostly reflecting an improved outlook for economic activity abroad, a lower foreign exchange value for the dollar, and a higher projected path of equity prices. | 1,999 | 2 |
May 13, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Governor Christopher J. Waller At The Global Interdependence Center's 39th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, The LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, George and the Global Interdependence Center, for the invitation to speak to you this afternoon. | 1,999 | 2 |
We have long said that the size of the balance sheet will be considered normalized when the balance sheet is once again at the smallest level consistent with conducting monetary policy efficiently and effectively. | 2,020 | 2 |
In these circumstances, any tendency for price pressures to mount was likely to emerge only gradually and to be reversible through a relatively limited policy adjustment. | 2,022 | 1 |
Such a policy would clearly have near-term costs: It would slow the expansion in demand, damp the creation of new jobs, and keep inflation lower than it otherwise would be. | 2,004 | 0 |
The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. | 2,013 | 2 |
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