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And we’ve talked about the effects on asset prices, | 2,022 | 2 |
We understand that inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time, but they don’t change rapidly. | 2,019 | 2 |
And as I mentioned earlier, the unemployment decline last month was more than 100 percent accounted for by declines in participation. | 2,019 | 0 |
Wage inflation has been running at 2 percent. | 2,021 | 2 |
But, certainly, we’ve had a lot of years in which interest rates have been low. | 2,022 | 2 |
We continue to discuss whether or not the unemployment rate itself is an adequate measure of how much underutilization of labor resources there really is. | 2,020 | 2 |
Smoothing through these variations, average monthly job growth appears to have stepped down from last year’s strong pace, but job gains remain well above the pace necessary to provide jobs for new labor force entrants. | 2,020 | 2 |
In real terms, with a 2 percent inflation objective—that’s 1 percent in real terms. | 2,013 | 0 |
it does have a bearing on the inflation outlook. | 2,021 | 2 |
We had a 10 percent unemployment rate, and our congressional mandate is maximum employment and price stability. | 2,015 | 0 |
So, as you know, the ultimate focus that we have is on the real economy: maximum employment and price stability. | 2,019 | 2 |
It is true that changes in longer-term interest rates in the United States—but also in other advanced economies—does have some effect on emerging markets, particularly those who are trying to peg their exchange rate, and can lead to some capital inflows or outflows. | 2,018 | 2 |
With unemployment still elevated and inflation below the Committee’s longer-run objective, the Committee is continuing its highly accommodative policies. | 2,019 | 0 |
So those who can get credit, together with the low prices of houses, are at—able to buy much more house than they could have a few years ago. | 2,021 | 0 |
And we’re learning to, to engage in economic activity. | 2,017 | 2 |
And inflation is moving—moving up, I think, toward our 2 percent objective. | 2,020 | 0 |
For example, one—in the long-run, the size of the balance sheet is going to depend on the public’s demand for our liabilities, including currency and reserves. | 2,021 | 2 |
You know, monetary policy is a forward-looking exercise, and I’m going to—I’m just going to stick with that. | 2,014 | 2 |
The unemployment rate declined in May and , 2020 June but, at 11.1 percent, remains far above its level before the outbreak and greater than the Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL peak during the Global Financial Crisis. | 2,012 | 0 |
Everyone, particularly people on fixed incomes, and at the lower part of the income distribution are better off with stable prices. | 2,021 | 2 |
Well, you’re certainly right that we have been over-optimistic about out-year growth. | 2,022 | 1 |
We have Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL households who are becoming more comfortable with their debt levels and more able to service that debt, an improving job market. | 2,015 | 1 |
It isn’t really just targeting the headline numbers, but it’s about taking all of those things into account in your thinking about what constitutes maximum employment. | 2,021 | 2 |
PCE core is at about 2, and I think we see that, you know, the temporary increase in headline inflation as being a function of oil prices probably, and we expect inflation to go back down to 2 percent. | 2,012 | 1 |
So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation. | 2,019 | 2 |
It’s where we always want inflation to be heading. | 2,020 | 2 |
But that has not—what, what happens is that when wages move up because unemployment is low, companies have been absorbing that increase into their margins rather than raising prices. | 2,020 | 2 |
And, in particular, I do personally believe that the slowdown is at least partly temporary, and that we’ll see greater growth going forward. | 2,011 | 0 |
I’m more concerned about that than about the possibility, which exists, of higher inflation. | 2,020 | 2 |
But you didn’t under the merely adverse scenario, which featured an inflation shock followed by a quick rise in short-term rates. | 2,014 | 1 |
There was a lot of pent-up demand. | 2,015 | 2 |
The entire Committee is committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective over the December 16, 2015 medium term, just as we want to make sure that inflation doesn’t persist at levels above our Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL 2 percent objective. | 2,021 | 0 |
That’s probably related to gas prices and also just stock prices to some extent for other people. | 2,016 | 2 |
And part of that just is the effect of lower interest rates. | 2,011 | 0 |
And so when asset prices went back up, probably there’ll be a swing around there, a positive contribution. | 2,020 | 2 |
We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective. | 2,020 | 2 |
So we view maximum employment as the maximum sustainable level of employment, meaning it’s not so much that it will cause the economy to overheat. | 2,019 | 2 |
So I don’t have a sense—the Committee doesn’t try to gauge what is the right level of equity prices. | 2,020 | 2 |
I don’t really think asset prices themselves represent a significant threat to financial stability, and that’s because households are in good shape financially than they have been. | 2,013 | 0 |
So the Committee estimates that the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate is 5.0 to 5.2. | 2,013 | 2 |
But, I would say, overall, we’re trying to sustain the expansion and keep, you know, close to our statutory goals, which are maximum employment and stable prices. | 2,014 | 1 |
But again, in terms of terminology, I guess I would reject that term for the Federal Reserve because we are going to be evenhanded in treating the price stability and maximum employment parts of our mandate on a level footing. | 2,011 | 2 |
And downward revisions to the longer-run normal unemployment rate in a way suggests that participants are seeing more slack in the economy now than they previously did. | 2,013 | 2 |
By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion. | 2,022 | 1 |
And obviously there are benefits from a strong economy to every household in the economy, including savers, from having a better job market and a more secure economy. | 2,011 | 2 |
And—but inflation expectations did not move strongly down here in the United States. | 2,011 | 1 |
As I mentioned, monetary policy operates with lags, so, the policies we have in place, we think, will gradually—only gradually—move inflation back to 2 percent. | 2,018 | 1 |
Now, with inflation below 2 percent, I think it’s appropriate that the labor market be that tight. | 2,021 | 0 |
Earlier in the year, as you will all recall, after careful study over a period of years, actually, the Committee announced the decision to implement monetary policy in an ample-reserves regime. | 2,017 | 0 |
The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in February and has been at or near half-century lows for almost two years. | 2,015 | 2 |
Also, the Committee will pay close attention to measures of inflation expectations to ensure that those expectations remain well anchored. | 2,018 | 1 |
These headwinds—which include developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth—could persist for some time. | 2,022 | 0 |
we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases. | 2,022 | 2 |
And as I mentioned, I think at the last press conference, estimates by the—by members of the Committee have moved down by a full percentage point since maybe 2012 as we’ve learned—as unemployment has dropped and inflation hasn’t really reacted. | 2,013 | 2 |
Against this backdrop, today the Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate. | 2,018 | 1 |
And what it is is, it’s an expression of the thinking about individual Committee members about appropriate monetary policy and the path of the economy. | 2,022 | 2 |
The recent lower readings on inflation have been driven significantly by what appear to be one-off reductions in certain categories of prices, such as wireless telephone services and prescription drugs. | 2,012 | 0 |
The course of underlying inflation pressures was more difficult to gauge, however. | 2,018 | 2 |
In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will begin to grow and that the unemployment rate will begin to decline starting in the second half of this year. | 1,999 | 0 |
Participants generally expected that household demand would gradually strengthen over coming quarters in response to the rise in household wealth from the substantial increase in equity prices that had occurred over the intermeeting period as well as the support for income provided by fiscal policy. | 2,011 | 1 |
However, reports from business contacts in several Districts indicated that employers in labor markets in which demand was high or in which workers in some occupations were in short supply were raising wages noticeably to compete for workers and limit turnover. | 2,000 | 1 |
Consistent with the optimism driving stock prices, spreads of corporate bond yields over comparable-maturity Treasury yields narrowed markedly across the credit spectrum, most notably for debt securities of the lowest credit quality firms. | 1,996 | 0 |
Inflation compensation for 2007 declined modestly, perhaps reflecting the further drop in spot energy prices, but was largely unchanged at longer maturities. | 2,004 | 2 |
This direction of causality may obscure the negative relationship, running from higher inflation to lower growth, presumed to hold in the longer term. | 2,003 | 1 |
Core consumer inflation had moved lower, but overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices. | 2,000 | 1 |
Despite a recent uptick in consumer prices, year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level. | 1,999 | 0 |
So, if we maintain a highly accommodative monetary policy for a very long time from here and the economy performs as we expect—namely, it’s strong and the risks that are out there don’t materialize—my concern will be that we will have much more tightening in labor markets than you see in these projections. | 2,019 | 0 |
In that regard, the changes in the macroeconomic environment that underlie our monetary policy review may have some implications for financial stability. | 2,022 | 2 |
Further out, TIPS-based inflation compensation 5 to 10 years ahead edged down slightly on net. | 2,016 | 0 |
Housing activity was generally holding up well across the country as the effects of appreciably reduced mortgage interest rates apparently compensated for the negative effects of declining financial wealth on the demand for housing. | 2,020 | 0 |
The evidence suggests that new technology often results in more growth in employment in innovating industries. | 2,013 | 2 |
With regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.5 To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it will conduct policy to achieve inflation outcomes that keep long-run inflation expectations anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal. | 2,005 | 1 |
With inflation much higher than the federal funds rate, the real federal funds rate is negative, even after our rate increases this year. | 2,000 | 1 |
Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources; but with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential. | 2,016 | 1 |
Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action. | 2,018 | 2 |
Although participants had revised downward their projections for growth since their previous forecasts in June, they continued to anticipate that economic growth would pick up and the unemployment rate would decline gradually through 2014. | 2,000 | 2 |
Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. | 2,019 | 2 |
Several participants stated that such risks should not inhibit the Committee from pursuing its mandated objectives for inflation and employment. | 2,014 | 2 |
These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability. | 2,007 | 1 |
Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low. | 2,000 | 0 |
This was also an era when the principal mortgage lenders, savings and loans, were sometimes constrained from satisfying mortgage demands by binding Regulation Q ceilings that eroded their deposit base when interest rates rose. | 2,004 | 2 |
Households' longer-term inflation expectations also edged up in both November and December. | 2,020 | 1 |
The members generally agreed that, if necessary, their concerns about rising inflation could be addressed at the meeting in early February. | 2,012 | 1 |
But many other commodity prices have fallen further, and the reason I would give for that is that the emerging markets—China, the rest of Asia, and some other parts of the world—plus Europe, of course, are softer, and so global commodity demand is weaker. | 2,020 | 0 |
Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods. | 2,012 | 1 |
On balance, most participants still expected inflation to moderate later this year and in 2009. | 2,005 | 2 |
In their discussion of prices, participants indicated that data over the intermeeting period, including measures of inflation expectations, suggested that underlying inflation was not in the process of moving higher. | 2,021 | 2 |
The members concluded that retaining a risk statement weighted toward more inflation pressures would best represent their current thinking, but they believed it was desirable to provide some recognition of the emergence of increased downside risks to the economic expansion in the statement to be released after this meeting. | 2,006 | 1 |
The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets. | 2,020 | 2 |
The FOMC's primary monetary policy tool is its target range for the federal funds rate. | 2,003 | 2 |
The review of regional economic developments by the Federal Reserve Bank presidents pointed to moderate expansion in economic activity across much of the nation, though growth was described as modest in a few regions and relatively robust in some others. | 2,019 | 2 |
Proponents of this strategy sometimes describe this approach as reducing inflation cycle-to-cycle or describe the economy as being one recession from price stability. | 2,000 | 1 |
The risk of higher inflation in this environment has two dimensions. | 2,020 | 1 |
The reserve conditions contemplated at this meeting were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months. | 2,019 | 2 |
In connection with the risks associated with an early start to policy normalization, many participants observed that a premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions, undermining progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. | 2,011 | 2 |
In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a moderate pace, supported by accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions. | 1,996 | 0 |
The run-up in mortgage rates since the latter part of June was expected to curb housing demand to a limited extent in coming months, but the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attractive mortgage interest rates. | 1,997 | 2 |
For 1998, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1997 for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998. | 2,002 | 2 |
This change has led many governments to be more willing to adopt institutional changes to improve central bank governance that have bolstered central bank credibility for maintaining low inflation. | 2,003 | 1 |
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability. | 2,016 | 0 |
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