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A few participants expressed less confidence in this outlook for inflation and commented that inflation had averaged less than 2 percent over the past several years even as resource utilization had increased, or pointed to downward pressures from global or technology-related factors that could continue to suppress inflation. | 2,020 | 0 |
However, investor demand for high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reportedly was robust, although issuance of CMBS remained muted. | 2,014 | 1 |
Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated; they noted that inflation had been persistently below 2 percent during the current economic expansion and that core inflation on a 12-month basis was little changed in recent months at a level below 2 percent. | 2,010 | 0 |
Domestic demand growth has slumped in many foreign economies because of varying combinations of an increase in saving rates and a decline in investment. | 2,017 | 0 |
This is an example of offsetting the attenuation in the response to the output gap with a more aggressive response to inflation realizations. | 2,003 | 1 |
Monthly increases in nonfarm payroll employment averaged nearly 180, 000 over the three months ending in November, in line with the average pace of job creation over the past year. | 1,997 | 2 |
In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"—not "deviations. | 2,006 | 0 |
The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. | 2,009 | 1 |
Participants discussed the open market operations that the Federal Reserve had undertaken since September to implement monetary policy, as well as forthcoming operational measures. | 1,998 | 2 |
Private investors would have to hold more longer-term securities as the Federal Reserve's holdings ran off, making longer-term interest rates somewhat higher than they would be otherwise. | 1,996 | 1 |
During most of the recent episode, monetary policy broadly followed the Taylor Rule prescription, while holding the nominal federal funds rate about unchanged. | 2,017 | 2 |
I expect that to continue, and I would expect also to see some improvement in the degree of part-time employment that’s for economic reasons. | 2,019 | 0 |
Relative to the average episode, commercial real estate prices neither fell much during the recession nor rose a lot during the expansion. | 2,004 | 2 |
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from the Congress to pursue policies that aim to achieve and sustain maximum employment and price stability. | 2,007 | 1 |
There are also asymmetric price effects from cost shocks—prices go up very quickly but often tend to come down more slowly, as consumers slowly learn that the bottlenecks have gone away. | 2,004 | 1 |
Given that we have yet to experience difficulties in funding a current account deficit that exceeds 6 percent of our GDP, what are the limits to the foreign markets' absorption of claims on U.S. residents? | 1,998 | 2 |
In dissenting, Mr. Meyer noted that although the money growth ranges do not play an important role in the conduct of monetary policy today, Congress has mandated that the FOMC set and report ranges for money and credit growth. | 2,001 | 2 |
But I want to emphasize that we do have a commitment to raising inflation to 2 percent. | 2,011 | 0 |
If episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, it has significant implications for risk management and, by implication, macroeconomic modeling and monetary policy. | 2,001 | 2 |
Construction employment posted another large increase, probably owing in part to hurricane-related activity. | 2,006 | 2 |
With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier. | 2,006 | 1 |
In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Federal Reserve's response to the economic effects of the pandemic, supporting smooth financial market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, which aided the flow of credit to households and businesses and supported the recovery. | 2,021 | 0 |
Therefore, even in the case of personal computers, where we have made such great strides in measuring quality changes, I suspect that important phenomena still may not be adequately captured by our published price indexes. | 2,008 | 2 |
However, making significant use of this option would bias credit flows in the direction of depository institutions and, if the volume of these loans were large enough, could affect the interest rates on the assets, specifically bank loans held by such institutions. | 2,004 | 2 |
In their comments about the external sector of the economy, members referred to indications of strengthening economic activity abroad that in conjunction with a weaker dollar was fostering some improvement in exports. | 2,014 | 2 |
Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures. | 2,006 | 1 |
September 01, 2020 Bringing the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy into Alignment with Longer-Run Changes in the Economy Governor Lael Brainard At "How the Fed Will Respond to the COVID-19 Recession in an Era of Low Rates and Low Inflation," an event hosted by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live I want to thank David Wessel for hosting this event. | 2,006 | 2 |
One branch of economists holds the view that monetary policy should not be influenced by any perceived financial market bubbles. | 2,020 | 2 |
You know, it’s interest rates, it’s risk spreads, it’s currency, it’s the stock market, it’s credit availability, it’s many, many factors. | 2,019 | 2 |
In this case, there may be no problem for monetary policy. | 2,020 | 2 |
In the United States, Congress has set the objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act, as amended in 1977. | 2,022 | 2 |
Members generally agreed that, in light of some weaker-than-expected readings on measures of labor market conditions and in the absence of greater confidence about the inflation outlook, it would be prudent to wait for additional information bearing on the medium-term outlook before initiating the process of policy normalization. | 1,997 | 2 |
Higher and more stable growth combined with better ability to undertake long-term plans can help to improve the fiscal outlook for a country. | 1,999 | 0 |
Stock options are incorporated, based on gains upon exercising the options, in the productivity and cost measure, but not in the ECI. | 2,006 | 2 |
The International Monetary Fund projects that global economic growth in 2019 will be the slowest since the financial crisis. | 2,020 | 0 |
So unless productivity accelerates further, its disinflationary effect should continue to erode for a time. | 2,022 | 0 |
Accordingly, considerable caution needed to be exercised in assessing the outlook for productivity and in relying on projections of the economy and prices, which necessarily embodied judgments about this outlook, in making monetary policy. | 2,022 | 2 |
Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time; such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential. | 2,021 | 1 |
In our most recent monetary policy statement—which was released following our January meeting—we indicated that "with inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market," we expected that it would "soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. | 2,006 | 1 |
The lagged effects of the substantial easing in monetary policy this year and the fiscal stimulus measures already enacted into law were expected to buttress demand and economic recovery over the next year. | 2,010 | 0 |
Term premiums could be lower when inflation expectations are well anchored or the macroeconomy is less volatile. | 2,005 | 2 |
For the United States, for example, the figure highlights the long run-up and subsequent fall in asset prices before the 2001 recession. | 2,020 | 2 |
Core measures of price inflation had moved up over recent quarters and particularly so over the last few months. | 2,000 | 1 |
If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will. | 2,006 | 2 |
In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period. | 2,021 | 0 |
Members also expressed concern about the potential for an increase in inflation expectations given highly stimulative macroeconomic policies and economic growth that seemed to be gathering momentum. | 2,009 | 1 |
Energy prices were moderating noticeably in response to lower worldwide demand, and core price inflation remained subdued. | 2,005 | 0 |
Participants continued to expect that, as the effects of transitory factors waned and labor market conditions strengthened further, inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. | 1,998 | 2 |
His conclusion is that only by far-reaching decentralization in a market system with competition and free price-fixing is it possible to make full use of knowledge and information. | 2,021 | 2 |
Although the aggregate balance sheet for the household sector was strong and the unemployment rate was low, consumer sentiment had deteriorated, and households were reportedly becoming more cautious in their expenditure decisions in light of uncertainty about the economic outlook and the reduction in purchasing power induced by price rises, particularly increases in the prices of essentials such as food, housing, and transportation. | 2,015 | 1 |
As yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities rose roughly in line with their nominal counterparts, longer-term inflation compensation remained about unchanged. | 2,013 | 2 |
Economic activity expanded in the second quarter, partly reflecting growth in consumer spending and exports. | 2,016 | 1 |
In the household sector, the rise in home mortgage debt likely slowed a bit further in the first quarter, as home-price appreciation appeared to have remained sluggish. | 2,009 | 2 |
Reports from several Districts suggested that firms had greater scope than in the recent past to raise prices in response to strong demand or increases in input costs, including those associated with tariff increases and recent rises in fuel and freight expenses. | 2,012 | 1 |
In contrast, under a price-level-targeting scheme, continuing deflation combined with an upward-sloping path for the price-level target causes the size of the price-level gap to increase over time. | 2,022 | 0 |
In their discussion of developments in asset markets, the participants' comments focused on two related issues: the low level of long-term interest rates and the continued run-up in home prices. | 2,021 | 1 |
While these developments were positive, participants noted several factors that likely would continue to restrain the expansion in economic activity. | 2,006 | 0 |
At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced. | 2,018 | 2 |
Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At our most recent FOMC meetings, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases, and that also provided unprecedented information about our policy reaction function. | 2,005 | 2 |
With inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee saw no need for tightening policy in the near future. | 1,999 | 2 |
The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers. | 2,004 | 1 |
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. | 1,998 | 0 |
There is, in my view, a reasonable prospect that each of these two effects will reverse their contributions to inflation over the next couple of years and that balance between them will be important in determining the pattern of core and overall inflation rates. | 2,005 | 2 |
These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand. | 2,002 | 0 |
In these circumstances, an easing at some point of current uncertainties and strengthening confidence should induce inventory rebuilding, with positive implications, at least for a time, for the expansion of economic activity. | 2,022 | 0 |
Despite the progress to date and the signs of acceleration in the recovery, employment is still considerably short of where it was when the pandemic disrupted the economy and it is well below where it should be, considering the pre-pandemic trend. | 1,999 | 0 |
Some business contacts indicated that wage and price pressures were subdued; however, in one District, contacts pointed to rising wage pressures and labor shortages. | 2,018 | 1 |
To keep the experiments as clean as possible, I assume that the economy begins at full employment and with both headline and core inflation at desired levels. | 2,021 | 2 |
Consider our estimates of real economic activity. | 2,019 | 2 |
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. | 2,001 | 2 |
The members agreed that the statement to be issued after this meeting should highlight their view that even after their firming today the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflation pressures. | 2,006 | 1 |
Indeed, the members did not rule out the emergence of appreciably lower inflation. | 2,016 | 0 |
They noted that the economy had entered the new year with considerable momentum and very few indications that growth was moderating from what appeared to be an unsustainable rate. | 1,996 | 1 |
Now with respect to the first objective, the rationale for maximizing employment is fairly obvious. | 2,005 | 0 |
In considering the statement to be released following this meeting, members concurred that it should note that even with the rise in oil prices, the expansion remained firm and labor markets continued to improve gradually. | 2,011 | 1 |
Just as in the earlier analysis of Ammer and Freeman, this analysis suggested that in all three countries the inflation targeting led to a drop in inflation and nominal interest rates. | 2,004 | 0 |
Two changes have particular relevance for the employment leg of the dual mandate.15 The new framework calls for monetary policy to seek to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, in contrast to the previous approach that called for policy to minimize deviations when employment is too high as well as too low. | 1,997 | 0 |
It will be a while before we can be sure that a self-sustaining expansion is underway of sufficient strength and persistence to put the economy back on a path toward full employment. | 2,000 | 0 |
A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path. | 2,020 | 0 |
Most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had been little changed in recent months. | 2,005 | 2 |
Although the economy has indeed strengthened over the past few quarters, job growth has been anemic and considerable slack persists in labor markets. | 2,004 | 0 |
Indeed, consumer expenditures appeared to have been expanding moderately over the previous few months, buoyed by increases in employment, personal income, and household wealth. | 2,022 | 2 |
On balance over the intermeeting period, interest rates on private instruments registered small mixed changes while yields on longer-term Treasury securities declined significantly. | 2,005 | 0 |
While there were no current indications that inflation might be accelerating and no policy move was called for at this time, the members saw a need for continuing vigilance. | 2,006 | 2 |
The staff assessed that households were in a better position than in the mid-2000s to weather a downturn in house prices, noting that mortgage debt growth has significantly lagged growth in house prices, leaving households with substantial equity cushions. | 1,998 | 2 |
Obviously, productivity growth generated through this rationalization process will not have the direct demand-augmenting effect of productivity increases realized through more rapid investment spending. | 2,020 | 2 |
In these circumstances, a pause seemed desirable to monitor the still-incomplete effects of the Committee's easing over the past year--a significant part of which had been implemented in recent months--and the contours of the turnaround in economic activity. | 2,022 | 0 |
We found that a surprise increase of 25 basis points in the funds rate target typically results in a decline in broad equity indexes of about 1 percent, whereas a change in the funds rate that is expected by the market has essentially no effect on stock prices.17 Our work is just one example of a number of event-study analyses that may well shed light on the effects of monetary policy and the channels of monetary policy transmission. | 2,003 | 2 |
Because an interest rate, by definition, is the exchange rate for money against non-monies, money obviously is central to monetary policy. | 2,007 | 2 |
It was possible, though, that investors' uncertainty regarding inflation prospects, not just inflation expectations themselves, had risen. | 2,021 | 1 |
When anticipations of Fed tapering led to higher U.S. interest rates and higher market volatility, these trades may have been quickly unwound, engendering particularly sharp declines in EME exchange rates and asset prices. | 2,007 | 2 |
Through this channel, the decline in inflation volatility should be reflected in a smaller inflation risk premium in nominal bond yields, which is exactly what is estimated in the Kim, Walsh, and Wei (2019) yield curve model (figure 4, "Term Premium Decomposition"). | 2,007 | 2 |
The shifting balance of domestic demand and potential supply in each country means that policies affecting domestic demand will need to be re-calibrated to preserve price stability and keep economies operating at high levels of reserve utilization. | 2,017 | 1 |
November 19, 2021 Perspectives on Global Monetary Policy Coordination, Cooperation, and Correlation Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the "Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery" 2021 Asia Economic Policy Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Center for Pacific Basin Studies, San Francisco, California (via webcast) Share Watch Live In my remarks today, I would like to offer some perspectives on global monetary policy correlation and what it can—and cannot—reveal about the prevalence and value of global monetary policy coordination or, in the limit, binding global monetary cooperation.1 In both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Global Pandemic Collapse (GPC), major central banks around the world responded by cutting policy rates to, and then keeping them at, their effective lower bounds (ELBs); by increasing their balance sheets through ambitious and expansive large-scale asset purchase and lending programs; and by offering forward guidance—both Delphic and Odyssean—on the stance of their future monetary policies.2 As these examples make clear, we certainly do observe that national monetary policies are often correlated, and such examples are not confined to recent experience. | 2,005 | 0 |
The slower growth of M2 followed strong expansion in August and September, however, and growth since midyear was at about the same pace as in the first half of the year. | 2,000 | 2 |
At the same time, however, the staff increased the growth rate forecast for 2006 to reflect the boost to economic activity from the rebuilding effort. | 2,021 | 1 |
Auctions of GSE debt following the conservatorship announcement reportedly attracted heavy demand, but market participants indicated that liquidity in the secondary market for GSE debt remained somewhat lower than normal. | 2,018 | 2 |
These productivity gains result from many forces, including business investment that has increased the amount and quality of capital available to the workforce, business process innovations, and the growth of innovative, research-intensive industries such as information technology and biotechnology. | 2,001 | 2 |
Monetary policy has an ambiguous effect on trade imbalances. | 1,997 | 2 |
One involves the so-called zero bound on nominal interest rates; the other involves labor markets. | 2,020 | 2 |
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