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fd75f919cbb6-0 | Park et al. (2023)
Title:
Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
Key Points:
Presents sea-level projections using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity where the model interacts with both the Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Exploration of potential sea-leve... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-1 | The simulations include an 8000-years-long coupled pre-industrial spin-up run for initialization and 10 member ensemble of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–1.9, 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios30 until 2150 CE. To further elucidate the effect of AIS meltwat... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-2 | The projected ensemble average of global surface temperature rise in 2100 CE (2150 CE) relative to the pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 CE) amounts to 1.4 ± 0.17 °C (1.2 ± 0.14 °C), 2.4 ± 0.15 °C (2.7 ± 0.16 °C) and 4.0 ± 0.15 °C (5.3 ± 0.09 °C) for the SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively (Fig. 2a)... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-3 | Figure 3: Projected changes in mass balance, ice thickness and subsurface ocean temperature. a, b Time series of the annual mean (a) Greenland ice-sheet (GrIS) and (b) Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) net mass balance in sea-level-equivalent (SLE) (including contributions from ice shelves), respectively; c GrIS 1850–1860 CE m... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-4 | Figure 5: Climate-ice-sheet feedbacks in Southern Hemisphere. a–c Annual anomalies (relative to the 1850–1900 CE mean) of (a) the Southern Ocean (SO) surface salinity, (b) 400 m subsurface Southern Ocean (SSO) temperature and (c) surface air temperature averaged between 60°S and 90°S. d is the SO sea-ice area averaged ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-5 | Our results are to some extent consistent with recent uncoupled single-hemisphere ice-sheet model simulations5,8,38 which also show the tendency for unabated SL acceleration over the next two centuries in response to strong greenhouse gas forcing. One of the key advantages of our coupled model setup, even though it use... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-6 | The model version employed here differs from the one used in a recent SL study [5] in that our spatial resolution is lower over Antarctica. Moreover, different parameters were used, namely those characterizing sub-ice-shelf ocean melting (OCFAC), the coefficient in the parameterization of hydrofracturing due to surface... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-7 | Another sensitivity experiment of the Antarctic ice-shelves to SSO warming is conducted by doubling the SSO temperature anomaly (relative to 1850 CE) to the Antarctic ice shelves in the SSP5-8.5 scenario with/without Antarctic meltwater flux (experiments Re_SSP5-8.5_2xSOTA and Re_SSP5-8.5_2xSOTA_MWOFF). Specifically, S... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
83d9565fb013-0 | Palmer et al. (2020)
Title:
Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea-Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond
Key Points:
We have developed a new set of global and local sea-level projections for the 21st century and extended to 2300 that are rooted in CMIP5 climate model simulations, including more comprehe... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-1 | In addition, UKCP18 provided an additional set of projections based on an emulated ensemble of CMIP5 models that extend to 2300 (Palmer, Harris, et al., 2018). These exploratory projections have a high degree of consistency with the UKCP18 21st century projections and maintain traceability to the CMIP5 models. The meth... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-2 | CMIP5 Data
The sea-level projections presented in this study are rooted in climate model simulations carried out as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012). A full list of the CMIP5 models used and their various applications is summarized in Table S2.
The 21st cen... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-3 | Figure 3: Estimates of the combined effect of mass changes on Earth’s gravity, rotation, and solid earth deformation (GRD) on local relative sea level. Panels (a), (b), (c), (g) and (h) show the mean of three sets of estimates with corresponding standard deviations across estimates shown in (d), (e), (f), (j) and (k). ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-4 | Methods
Global-Mean Sea-Level Projections
The local MSL projections presented here are based on 21st century process-based projections of GMSL presented in IPCC AR5 (Church et al., 2013). The GMSL projections are composed of seven components: (i) global-mean thermosteric sea level; and barystatic sea level due to (ii... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-5 | Antarctica: ice dynamics A scenario-dependent projection based on the results of Levermann et al. (2014). GMSL rise is modeled as a quadratic function of time, beginning with the observational rate of dynamic mass loss in 2006 and reaching Lex at 2100, where x is chosen by the Monte Carlo from a normal distribution wi... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-6 | Local Sea-Level Projections
As we move to local MSL projections, a number of additional processes are taken into account. First, the spatial patterns of MSL change associated with each of the barystatic GMSL contributions (Table 1, ii–vii) are incorporated using estimates of the effects on Earth’s gravity, rotation, a... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-7 | Table 2: Comparison of Projected Ranges of Global-Mean Sea-Level Rise
Projection Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
IPCC AR5 2100 0.28–0.61 m 0.36–0.71 m 0.52–0.98 m
IPCC SROCC 2100 0.28–0.59 m 0.38–0.72 m 0.61–1.11 m
This study (21st century) 2100 0.28–0.66 m 0.37–0.78 m... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-8 | For 2300, we see substantial differences between SROCC and the present study for the available GMSL components (Figures 8d–8f). No estimate of post-2100 land water changes were made for AR5/SROCC, and our methods use a simple assumption of applying the 2100 rates over the period 2100–2300 (Table 1). The magnitude and r... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-9 | Most tide gauge locations show that MSL is currently rising and that this rise will accelerate over the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The 21st century rates of sea-level change under RCP2.6 are relatively stable and most locations show the scenarios diverging from the mid-21st century. For most locations, the... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-10 | Figure 13: Time evolution of variance associated with model uncertainty for GMSL and three example tide gauge sites under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 based on the extended projections to 2300. The left column shows the time evolution of total variance. The central and right columns show the time-evolution fraction of variance ex... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-11 | As part of our analysis of variance, we also investigate the contribution from uncertainty in the GRD estimates presented in section 2.4 (Figure 3). We choose the three tide gauge sites with the largest spread in one or more GRD components, that is, Barentsburg, Reykjavik, and Stanley II, and conduct the following simp... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
4418cc28ef3a-0 | Hay et al. (2015)
Title:
Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise
Key Points:
Reconstruction of the global mean sea-level changes since 1900, from combining the probability distributions of a set of tide gauge records, refines estimates and is more consitent with estimates based on the sum of contr... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-1 | In this Letter, we revisit the analysis of GMSL since the start of the twentieth century using Kalman smoothing9 (KS; see Methods). This statistical technique naturally accommodates spatially sparse and temporally incomplete sampling of a global sea-level field, provides a rigorous, probabilistic framework for uncertai... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-2 | First, we applied to the KS global sea-level reconstruction a regional binning algorithm similar to that of Jevrejeva et al.3. In particular, we sampled the reconstruction at the locations of the 622 tide gauge sites, imposed sections of missing data consistent with the PSMSL data availability15, binned the tide gauges... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-3 | A comprehensive discussion of our application of the KS technique to the analysis of tide gauge measurements is given in ref. 9, which also includes synthetic tests to assess the performance of the procedure. Several subsequent refinements of this approach are summarized below.
Reference 9 defined the state vector to i... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
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