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fd75f919cbb6-0 | Park et al. (2023)
Title:
Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model
Key Points:
Presents sea-level projections using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity where the model interacts with both the Greenland Ice Sheet and Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Exploration of potential sea-leve... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-1 | The simulations include an 8000-years-long coupled pre-industrial spin-up run for initialization and 10 member ensemble of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1–1.9, 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios30 until 2150 CE. To further elucidate the effect of AIS meltwat... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-2 | The projected ensemble average of global surface temperature rise in 2100 CE (2150 CE) relative to the pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 CE) amounts to 1.4 ± 0.17 °C (1.2 ± 0.14 °C), 2.4 ± 0.15 °C (2.7 ± 0.16 °C) and 4.0 ± 0.15 °C (5.3 ± 0.09 °C) for the SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively (Fig. 2a)... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-3 | Figure 3: Projected changes in mass balance, ice thickness and subsurface ocean temperature. a, b Time series of the annual mean (a) Greenland ice-sheet (GrIS) and (b) Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) net mass balance in sea-level-equivalent (SLE) (including contributions from ice shelves), respectively; c GrIS 1850–1860 CE m... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-4 | Figure 5: Climate-ice-sheet feedbacks in Southern Hemisphere. a–c Annual anomalies (relative to the 1850–1900 CE mean) of (a) the Southern Ocean (SO) surface salinity, (b) 400 m subsurface Southern Ocean (SSO) temperature and (c) surface air temperature averaged between 60°S and 90°S. d is the SO sea-ice area averaged ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-5 | Our results are to some extent consistent with recent uncoupled single-hemisphere ice-sheet model simulations5,8,38 which also show the tendency for unabated SL acceleration over the next two centuries in response to strong greenhouse gas forcing. One of the key advantages of our coupled model setup, even though it use... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-6 | The model version employed here differs from the one used in a recent SL study [5] in that our spatial resolution is lower over Antarctica. Moreover, different parameters were used, namely those characterizing sub-ice-shelf ocean melting (OCFAC), the coefficient in the parameterization of hydrofracturing due to surface... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
fd75f919cbb6-7 | Another sensitivity experiment of the Antarctic ice-shelves to SSO warming is conducted by doubling the SSO temperature anomaly (relative to 1850 CE) to the Antarctic ice shelves in the SSP5-8.5 scenario with/without Antarctic meltwater flux (experiments Re_SSP5-8.5_2xSOTA and Re_SSP5-8.5_2xSOTA_MWOFF). Specifically, S... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/park23.html |
83d9565fb013-0 | Palmer et al. (2020)
Title:
Exploring the Drivers of Global and Local Sea-Level Change Over the 21st Century and Beyond
Key Points:
We have developed a new set of global and local sea-level projections for the 21st century and extended to 2300 that are rooted in CMIP5 climate model simulations, including more comprehe... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-1 | In addition, UKCP18 provided an additional set of projections based on an emulated ensemble of CMIP5 models that extend to 2300 (Palmer, Harris, et al., 2018). These exploratory projections have a high degree of consistency with the UKCP18 21st century projections and maintain traceability to the CMIP5 models. The meth... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-2 | CMIP5 Data
The sea-level projections presented in this study are rooted in climate model simulations carried out as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012). A full list of the CMIP5 models used and their various applications is summarized in Table S2.
The 21st cen... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-3 | Figure 3: Estimates of the combined effect of mass changes on Earth’s gravity, rotation, and solid earth deformation (GRD) on local relative sea level. Panels (a), (b), (c), (g) and (h) show the mean of three sets of estimates with corresponding standard deviations across estimates shown in (d), (e), (f), (j) and (k). ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-4 | Methods
Global-Mean Sea-Level Projections
The local MSL projections presented here are based on 21st century process-based projections of GMSL presented in IPCC AR5 (Church et al., 2013). The GMSL projections are composed of seven components: (i) global-mean thermosteric sea level; and barystatic sea level due to (ii... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-5 | Antarctica: ice dynamics A scenario-dependent projection based on the results of Levermann et al. (2014). GMSL rise is modeled as a quadratic function of time, beginning with the observational rate of dynamic mass loss in 2006 and reaching Lex at 2100, where x is chosen by the Monte Carlo from a normal distribution wi... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-6 | Local Sea-Level Projections
As we move to local MSL projections, a number of additional processes are taken into account. First, the spatial patterns of MSL change associated with each of the barystatic GMSL contributions (Table 1, ii–vii) are incorporated using estimates of the effects on Earth’s gravity, rotation, a... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-7 | Table 2: Comparison of Projected Ranges of Global-Mean Sea-Level Rise
Projection Year RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5
IPCC AR5 2100 0.28–0.61 m 0.36–0.71 m 0.52–0.98 m
IPCC SROCC 2100 0.28–0.59 m 0.38–0.72 m 0.61–1.11 m
This study (21st century) 2100 0.28–0.66 m 0.37–0.78 m... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-8 | For 2300, we see substantial differences between SROCC and the present study for the available GMSL components (Figures 8d–8f). No estimate of post-2100 land water changes were made for AR5/SROCC, and our methods use a simple assumption of applying the 2100 rates over the period 2100–2300 (Table 1). The magnitude and r... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-9 | Most tide gauge locations show that MSL is currently rising and that this rise will accelerate over the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. The 21st century rates of sea-level change under RCP2.6 are relatively stable and most locations show the scenarios diverging from the mid-21st century. For most locations, the... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-10 | Figure 13: Time evolution of variance associated with model uncertainty for GMSL and three example tide gauge sites under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 based on the extended projections to 2300. The left column shows the time evolution of total variance. The central and right columns show the time-evolution fraction of variance ex... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
83d9565fb013-11 | As part of our analysis of variance, we also investigate the contribution from uncertainty in the GRD estimates presented in section 2.4 (Figure 3). We choose the three tide gauge sites with the largest spread in one or more GRD components, that is, Barentsburg, Reykjavik, and Stanley II, and conduct the following simp... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/palmer20.html |
4418cc28ef3a-0 | Hay et al. (2015)
Title:
Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise
Key Points:
Reconstruction of the global mean sea-level changes since 1900, from combining the probability distributions of a set of tide gauge records, refines estimates and is more consitent with estimates based on the sum of contr... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-1 | In this Letter, we revisit the analysis of GMSL since the start of the twentieth century using Kalman smoothing9 (KS; see Methods). This statistical technique naturally accommodates spatially sparse and temporally incomplete sampling of a global sea-level field, provides a rigorous, probabilistic framework for uncertai... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-2 | First, we applied to the KS global sea-level reconstruction a regional binning algorithm similar to that of Jevrejeva et al.3. In particular, we sampled the reconstruction at the locations of the 622 tide gauge sites, imposed sections of missing data consistent with the PSMSL data availability15, binned the tide gauges... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-3 | A comprehensive discussion of our application of the KS technique to the analysis of tide gauge measurements is given in ref. 9, which also includes synthetic tests to assess the performance of the procedure. Several subsequent refinements of this approach are summarized below.
Reference 9 defined the state vector to i... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-4 | where the subscripts indicate the ith row and jth column element of the ath ice sheet or mountain glacier. The time dependence of the covariance matrix is taken to be the sum of a linear component, AM,L, which accounts for secular changes in the melt contributions, and a rational quadratic term, AM,RQ, that represents ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-5 | While the CMIP5 model outputs are provided as global ocean grids, the field values at the specific locations of tide gauges are required, as input, to both the KS and GPR analyses. Where the tide gauges are coincident with model grid points, the associated value of the model output is used. Otherwise, an inverse distan... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
4418cc28ef3a-6 | Optimality of the Kalman smoother
Local sea levels observed by tide gauges reveal significant interannual and decadal variability. This variability can lead to temporal correlation in the sea-level time series that needs to be considered if one seeks to obtain optimal estimates of the underlying GMSL contributions. In... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hay15.html |
5a019e65abdb-0 | Suzuki et al. (2005)
Title:
Projection of future sea level and its variability in a high-resolution climate model: Ocean processes and Greenland and Antarctic ice-melt contributions
Corresponding author:
Tatsuo Suzuki
Citation:
Suzuki, T., Hasumi, H., Sakamoto, T. T., Nishimura, T., Abe‐Ouchi, A., Segawa, T., et al. (... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/suzuki05.html |
5a019e65abdb-1 | Globally Averaged Sea Level Rise
The steric contribution (thermal expansion and haline contraction) to sea level rise was estimated from the model ocean temperature and salinity. As the Boussinesq approximation was adopted in the ocean model, the globally averaged sea level rise attributable to steric factors was diag... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/suzuki05.html |
5a019e65abdb-2 | Both models exhibited a region of large sea level rises in the North Pacific. These sea level changes were also shown in the Hadley Centre coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (HadCM3), which has a horizontal resolution similar to that of MIROC3.2_med [Gregory and Lowe, 2000]. This feature has not been re... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/suzuki05.html |
f3e8df801819-0 | Welcome to SeaLevelDocs’s documentation!
Contents:
Suzuki et al. (2005)
Hughes et al. (2010)
Church and White (2011)
Kuhlbrodt and Gregory (2012)
Church et al. (2013)
Hallberg et al. (2013)
Kopp et al. (2014)
Hay et al. (2015)
DeConto and Pollard (2016)
Chen et al. (2017)
Chen and Tung (2018)
Horton et al. (2018)
Lit... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/index.html |
88add8ede049-0 | Hamlington et al. (JGR, 2020)
Title:
Understanding of contemporary regional sea-level change and the implications for the future
Key Points:
An overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea-level change is provided
Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inh... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hamlington20jgr.html |
88add8ede049-1 | The causes of global and regional SLC have been the focus of recent review papers, with regional change most comprehensively discussed and summarized in Stammer et al. (2013), Kopp et al. (2015), and Slangen et al. (2017). The understanding of these processes has progressed in recent years, and the outstanding gaps in ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hamlington20jgr.html |
88add8ede049-2 | We use the term sea level in this paper to refer to both the lower-frequency variations described in sections 3 through 6, and the higher-frequency variations in section 8. Pugh and Woodworth (2014) define sea level as the sum of four main components: mean sea level, astronomical tides, a meteorological component, and ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hamlington20jgr.html |
88add8ede049-3 | We depend on a suite of numerical models to project future ice sheet changes, and these models also contribute to constraining past and present behavior. These models are traditionally used in a stand-alone framework but are increasingly “coupled” to represent the full spectrum of ice sheet-climate interactions. Atmosp... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hamlington20jgr.html |
88add8ede049-4 | Figure 3: Contribution to relative sea.level rise (mm/year) from 2002 to 2015 from (a) Antarctica Ice Sheet mass loss, (b) Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss, (c) terrestrial water storage variability, and (d) glacier mass loss. Adapted from Adhikari and Ivins (2016).
Ice sheet contributions are especially important when p... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/hamlington20jgr.html |
bc7116e222f0-0 | Wickramage et al. (2023)
Title:
Sensitivity of MPI-ESM Sea Level Projections to Its Ocean Spatial Resolution
Corresponding author:
Chathurika Wickramage
Keywords:
Ocean, Sea level, Climate models, Mesoscale models, Model comparison
Citation:
Wickramage, C., Köhl, A., Jungclaus, J., & Stammer, D. (2023). Sensitivity of... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-1 | The structure of the remaining paper is as follows: Section 2 describes the model and the evaluation methods used. Common characteristics of sea level change in the models are described in detail in section 3. In section 4, we compare the ocean model projection in each basin. We conclude and summarize with section 5.
M... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-2 | Analyzing model output
This study considers the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as the mean sea level above the geoid due to ocean dynamics (Gregory et al. 2019):
ζ = η − η′. (1)
Here ζ is the variable “zos” according to the CMIP terminology (Griffies et al. 2016), η, which is named “sterodynamic sea level,”... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-3 | Figure 2: Anomalies of (a)–(c) dynamic sea level (m), (d)–(f) barotropic streamfunction (Sv), (g)–(i) sea surface temperature (°C), and (j)–(l) wind stress (N m−2), for (left) MPI-ESM-LR, (center) MPI-ESM-HR, and (right) MPI-ESM-ER between the SSP5-8.5 averaged over the period 2080–99 and the historical period averaged... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-4 | Figure 3: North Atlantic differences of (a)–(f) dynamic sea level (m) and (g)–(l) wind stress (N m−2); panels (a)–(c) and (g)–(i) illustrate the anomalies of the SSP5-8.5 (2080–99) average relative to the historical simulation, averaged over 1995–2014 for MPI-ESM-LR in (a) and (g), MPI-ESM-HR in (b) and (h), and MPI-ES... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-5 | Figure 6: Anomalies of (a)–(c) barotropic streamfunction and (g)–(h) Sverdrup streamfunctions for the SSP5-8.5 (2080–99) average relative to the historical simulation, averaged over 1995–2014 in North Atlantic for MPI-ESM-LR in (a) and (g), MPI-ESM-HR in (b) and (h), and MPI-ESM-ER in (c) and (i); the differences of th... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-6 | North Pacific
In contrast to the North Atlantic, in ER the DSL increases south of the Kuroshio Extension (over the subtropical gyre) and decreases farther to the north (in the subpolar gyre, Fig. 7a). This characteristic North Pacific dipole pattern is opposite to that in the North Atlantic and its axis is located alo... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-7 | Previous studies have emphasized that increased model resolution is necessary for the representation of accurate western boundary currents such as Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, and East Australian Currents (e.g., Chassignet and Xu 2017; Chassignet et al. 2020; Griffies et al. 2015; Hewitt et al. 2017, 2020; Roberts et al. 201... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-8 | To evaluate the response of ACC to the intensified westerly wind stress, we investigated the Drake Passage transport independently for the two time periods (Fig. 13a). Even though the studies cited above oppose the ACC’s sensitivity to changing westerly winds, we discovered an accelerating ACC particularly in our eddy-... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-9 | The displacements of the North Pacific Subpolar and Subtropical Gyres are negligible when compared to interannual variability in all configurations (Figs. 14c,d). Consistent with the changes of the barotropic streamfunction (Figs. 9c), the boundary of the negative circulation anomaly crossing the zero contour of presen... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
bc7116e222f0-10 | The poleward shift of North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, which is also observed in the Sverdrup field as a pattern of positive north and negative south parts of the gyre, is considerable in all the models. However, the differences between models are not significant.
Interestingly, a pattern of positive north and negative... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/wickramage23.html |
a9cea5dae349-0 | DeConto et al. (2021)
Title:
The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica
Corresponding author:
Robert M. DeConto
Citation:
DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez, N., et al. (2021). The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nat... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-1 | Calving in narrow fjord settings such as Jakobshavn is controlled by a complex combination of ductile and brittle processes, as well as buoyancy. After calving, subsequent fracture-driven failure is delayed until accelerated flow thins the terminus to near-flotation, allowing tidal flexure, basal crevassing, slumping o... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-2 | Adding the LIG constraint (3.1–6.1 m; 129–128 kyr ago) to IMBIE eliminates 44 additional parameter combinations (n = 119), but only at the lower bound of the parameter range. Without MICI, the model is incapable of simulating realistic LIG ice loss. Even at the top of the parameter range, simulated rates of GMSL rise r... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-3 | Figure 2: Ice-sheet evolution following the +3 °C global warming emissions trajectory. A single +3 °C ensemble member with average hydrofracturing and ice-cliff calving parameters. Transient atmosphere and ocean forcing follows the +3 °C scenario, roughly consistent with current policies (NDCs). Floating and grounded i... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-4 | Implications of delayed mitigation
An additional set of simulations was run using a single combination of ice-model parameters representing calibrated ensemble averages (Extended Data Table 1). The simulations either maintain current (2020) atmosphere and ocean conditions without any future warming, or begin to follow... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-5 | The model used here includes an updated treatment of sub-ice oceanic melting. Oceanic melt rates are calculated at each floating ice grid cell as a quadratic function of the difference between nearest sub-surface ocean temperatures at 400-m water depth and the pressure melting point of ice51,54. The model accounts for ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-6 | Ensemble parameters
Our primary perturbed physics ensembles use a 14 × 14 matrix (n = 196) of CREVLIQ and VCLIFF in the hydrofracturing and ice-cliff calving parameterizations described above (Extended Data Table 1). The 14 values of CREVLIQ vary between 0 and 195 m−1 yr2 in evenly spaced increments. VCLIFF varies bet... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-7 | Pliocene ensemble
Mid-Pliocene simulations also use consistent ice model physics and the same RCM climate forcing described in ref. 8, assuming 400 ppm CO2, an extreme warm austral summer orbit and 2 °C of ocean warming to represent maximum mid-Pliocene warmth in Antarctica. The ice-sheet simulations are run for 5,000... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-8 | Coupled ice–Earth–sea level model
Most simulations use a standard Elastic Lithosphere/Relaxed Asthenosphere (ELRA) representation of vertical bedrock motion [51]. The ELRA model accounts for time-evolving bedrock deformation under changing ice loads, assuming an elastic lithospheric plate above local isostatic relaxat... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-9 | Extended Data Fig. 2 RCP8.5 ensembles calibrated with alternative GRACE estimates. a, b, The fan charts show the time-evolving uncertainty and range around the median ensemble value (black line) in 10% increments. RCP8.5 ice-sheet model ensembles calibrated with GRACE estimates of annual mass change averaged from 2002–... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-10 | Extended Data Fig. 8 Coupled ice–Earth–sea level model simulations. a–c, Simulations without hydrofracturing and ice-cliff calving processes. d–f, Simulations with hydrofracturing and ice-cliff calving enabled (Methods). GMSL contributions are from the WAIS only. Various Earth viscosity profiles (coloured lines) are co... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-11 | Here, we compare the timing of future summer warming over four regions of the Antarctic margin (Supplementary Figure 2) simulated by the RCM used to force our main ice sheet model ensembles under RCP8.5 (Fig. 1g,h) relative to ERA5 reanalysis15, five CMIP5 climate models following RCP8.5 used in a previous assessment o... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-12 | Supplementary Figure 3: Global mean sea level contributions from Antarctica with a modified hydrofracturing scheme. Simulations follow two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, using our nominal model formulation of hydrofracturing used throughout the main text (solid lines), compared with an alternative formulati... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
a9cea5dae349-13 | 𝑓(𝜃1,𝜃2,𝑡) = 𝑓1(𝜃1,𝜃2) + 𝑓2(𝜃1,𝜃2,𝑡) (S1)
The first term represents a parameter-specific intercept, the latter the temporal evolution of the contribution. The priors for each term are specified as:
𝑓 (𝜃 ,𝜃 )~𝒢𝒫(0,𝛼9𝐾 (𝜃 ,𝜃 ,𝜃@,𝜃@ ;l )) (S2)
𝑓 (𝜃 ,𝜃 ,𝑡)~𝒢𝒫(0,𝛼9𝐾 (𝜃 ,𝜃 ,𝜃@,𝜃@ ;l )𝐾 (𝑡,... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/deconto21.html |
d3958eec8aeb-0 | Li et al. (2023)
Title:
Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss
Corresponding author:
Dawei Li
Citation:
Li, D., DeConto, R. M., & Pollard, D. (2023). Climate model differences contribute deep uncertainty in future Antarctic ice loss. Science Advances, 9(7), eadd7082. doi: 10... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/li23sciadv.html |
d3958eec8aeb-1 | A series of ISM experiments under this perfect model framework, as documented in Table 1, were carried out to assess the effect of biases in modeled climate on the AIS’s equilibrium state and the uncertainty in past and future trajectories of the AIS due to divergent climate sensitivities displayed by CMIP6 models. We ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/li23sciadv.html |
d3958eec8aeb-2 | Figure 3: Intermodel differences in CMIP6 climates and simulated AIS. Scatter plots show intermodel differences in modeled Antarctic climate and resulting states of the AIS forced by 36 CMIP6 climate models, represented by markers of different shapes and colors. (A to D) DJF near-surface (2-m) air temperature (T2m) (°C... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/li23sciadv.html |
d3958eec8aeb-3 | Experiment set CMIP6_BC_1850-2100 are 250-year ISM runs under transient bias-corrected CMIP6 climates in combined historical (1850–2014) and SSP5-8.5 (2015–2100) scenarios, with the ice sheet initiated from the respective 15,000-year control simulation under the bias-corrected preindustrial climate described previously... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/li23sciadv.html |
d3958eec8aeb-4 | Although key parameters for hydrofracturing and cliff failure have been updated and constrained by sea level proxy data and observational records (5), considering their associated uncertainty, we also carried out alternative experiments without MICI processes (Exp. CMIP6_BC_1850-2100_NO_MICI). Without MICI, the ISM run... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/li23sciadv.html |
d3958eec8aeb-5 | Effects of ISM calibration per climate model
Results discussed so far are all from ISM runs in a “single-ISM” framework, where the ISM is calibrated on the basis of observational data, with its parameters fixed for all CMIP6 climate models. Nonetheless, calibrating an ISM’s parameters so that, under a prescribed clima... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/li23sciadv.html |
e48670af6dee-0 | Little et al. (2019)
Title:
The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review
Key Points:
The relationship between the AMOC and coastal sea level is important to flood risk projections and ocean circulation reconstructions
The amplitude and pattern of sea ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-1 | Understanding the drivers of future change in relative sea level (RSL, i.e., that observed by tide gauges and relevant to coastal locations; see Gregory et al., 2019), and the ability of numerical models to represent such drivers, is critical. However, this is a complex task, given the many contributing processes that ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-2 | In addition to these large-scale flows, there are important currents along the U.S. East Coast continental shelf, shelf break, and slope: flowing northward over the continental shelf south of Cape Hatteras (the South Atlantic Bight) and southward along the shelf between Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia (Figure 2). These c... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-3 | h_W = -frac{Q}{rho_0}frac{f}{g H_e}, (6)
in which it is shown how the coastal sea level signal h_W is negatively related to the strength of the overturning Q/rho_0, and the size of the signal is larger if the effective layer thickness H_e is smaller.
Figure 3 reveals a fairly uniform (or slowly decreasing with increasi... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-4 | There are broad similarities in the spatial pattern of scaling coefficients and that of the ensemble mean DSL change (Figure 4b), with only a few models showing dramatic differences from the subtropical high/subpolar and coastal low relationship (e.g., MRI-CGCM and FGOALS-g2). However, the amplitude of the scaling coef... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-5 | In addition to the RAPID record, longer observations of elements of the North Atlantic circulation are available: for example, the Florida Current time series since 1982 (Meinen et al., 2010), the Oleander time series of Gulf Stream transport since 1992 (Rossby et al., 2014), and the position of the Gulf Stream Extensi... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-6 | Possible Sources of Regional, Intermodel, and Model-Observational Discrepancies
The diagnostic geostrophic relationship between AMOC transport and U.S. East Coast sea level derived in section 3 implies a scaling coefficient of order −1 to −2 cm/Sv with little alongshore variation. Although some numerical simulations f... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-7 | Equation 8 is a limiting case for a vertical sidewall, in which the solution becomes independent of the strength or form of the friction. In this linear case, the vertical sidewall limit is found to produce the largest coastal signal, for a given upper layer thickness. The mechanism here can be considered to be a break... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-8 | For example, the Gulf Stream, by which we refer to the full western boundary current near southern Florida, has two branches: the Florida Current and the Antilles Current, which flows offshore of the Bahama Banks (Figure 2). While the Florida Current carries a larger mean transport (about 32 Sv compared with about 5 Sv... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-9 | Penduff et al. (2010) find that higher-resolution models (as fine as 0.25°) show improved representations of variability and time-mean Sea Surface Height (SSH), especially in the eddy rich regions, in comparison to altimetry. Coastal sea level variability also appears improved with finer resolution, and DSL change unde... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
e48670af6dee-10 | Such analyses also move beyond the purely diagnostic, degenerate, statement of force balance supplied by geostrophy, allowing an understanding of the local, regional, basin, and global scale forcing responsible for coastal sea level changes. The incomplete interpretation provided by geostrophy is evident in Goddard et ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/little19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-0 | Gregory et al. (2019)
Title:
Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global
Key Points:
Describes concepts and terminology related to sea level, its variability, and changes both locally and globally.
Clarifies language and definitions for better communication in sea-level ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-1 | Thus, the time-mean state cannot be absolutely defined, but the concept is necessary. In this paper, mean sea level refers to a time-mean state whose precise definition should be specified when the term is used, and which is understood to be long enough to eliminate the effect of meteorological variations at least. We ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-2 | For purposes relating to global sea level we make the following requirements of the reference ellipsoid.
Its centre is the time-mean centre of mass of the Earth.
Its semi-major axis lies in the equatorial plane and its semi-minor axis along the rotation (polar) axis of the Earth.
Its axis of revolution is the rotation ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-3 | MSL is located by its geodetic height 𝜂(𝐫) above the reference ellipsoid (a negative value if below). In ocean models which regard the geoid and the reference ellipsoid as coincident, 𝜂 is equally the orthometric height of MSL above the geoid. MSL is sometimes called “mean sea surface”. We recommend against using th... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-4 | ∫𝜂 d𝐴 = ∫𝐺 d𝐴, (5)
i.e., MSL and geoid height above the reference ellipsoid have equal global means.
We define the geoid in terms of MSL 𝜂, rather than the sea-surface height 𝜂̃, in order to restrict changes in G and V to those occurring on the timescales of global-mean sea-level rise , rather than on shorter tim... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-5 | 𝑝̃′𝑎(𝐫,𝑡) = 𝑝̃𝑎(𝐫,𝑡) − 1𝐴∫𝑝̃𝑎(𝐫,𝑡) d𝐴. (8)
For timescales longer than a few days, we can assume the ocean to be in hydrostatic balance. Therefore, the depression of the sea-surface height (SSH) 𝜂̃ by IB is 𝐵̃=𝑝̃′𝑎/(𝑔𝜌s) where 𝑔(𝐫) is the acceleration due to gravity and 𝜌s(𝐫,𝜂̃) the surface sea-... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-6 | N10 Sea-surface waves: Waves on the surface of the ocean, usually surface gravity waves caused by winds.
The amplitude of a wind wave depends on the strength of the wind, and the time and the distance of open ocean, called the fetch, over which the wind has blown. The sea surface typically exhibits a superposition of m... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-7 | 𝐷 = −1𝜌∗∫𝜁̃−𝐵̃𝑧𝜌̃𝑑𝑧′ (19)
of the sea surface relative to z.
In much of the ocean interior (below the boundary layer and away from coastal and other strong currents), and taking a time-mean sufficient to eliminate tidal currents, geostrophy is a reasonable approximation, meaning that there is a balance (no net a... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-8 | Both the MSL height 𝜂 and the sea floor height 𝐹 may change and thus alter RSL. Hence, RSLC is geodetically expressed as
Δ𝑅(𝐫) = Δ𝜂(𝐫) − Δ𝐹(𝐫), (24)
the difference between geocentric sea-level change Δ𝜂 and vertical land movement Δ𝐹 (VLM). IB-corrected relative sea-level change is Δ𝑅+Δ𝐵, i.e., RSLC with the... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-9 | ℎ𝜃 = 1𝐴∫Δ𝑅𝜃d𝐴 = −1𝜌∗𝐴∫∫𝜂𝐹∂𝜌∂𝜃Δ𝜃(𝐫,𝑧)d𝑧d𝐴. (32)
It is the change in global ocean volume due to change in temperature alone, divided by the ocean surface area. The CMIP variable zostoga is ℎ𝜃 calculated with respect to a fixed reference state. (Griffies et al. 2016 define the reference to be the initial ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-10 | We propose “manometric” as a new term because in the existing literature there is no unambiguous and generally used term for Δ𝑅𝑚. It may be described as the “mass effect on”, “mass contribution to”, “mass component of” or “mass term in” sea level or sea-level change, but these descriptions could equally well refer to... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-11 | N21 Vertical land movement (VLM)Δ𝐹: The change in the height of the sea floor or the land surface.
VLM has several causes, including isostasy, elastic flexure of the lithosphere, earthquakes and volcanoes (due to tectonics). All of these involve a change in height of the existing solid surface. In contrast, landslid... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-12 | The elastic deformation and associated geoid contributions to contemporary GRD-induced relative sea-level change are separately proportional to the mass Δ𝑀 which has been added to the ocean. Hence, their sum is
Δ𝛤𝑝(𝐫)=Δ𝑀𝛾𝑝(𝐫), (40)
where 𝛾𝑝(𝐫) is a geographically dependent constant of proportionality, indepe... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-13 | On glacial–interglacial and geological timescales, the variation of ocean area cannot be neglected, so GMSLR is ill-defined. However, it is still meaningful to consider global-mean relative sea-level changeℎ𝑅, which is the change in global-mean ocean thickness
ℎ𝑅 = 𝑉+Δ𝑉/(𝐴+Δ𝐴) − 𝑉/𝐴 = 𝑉/(𝐴+Δ𝐴) (Δ𝑉/𝑉−Δ𝐴/𝐴... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-14 | the sum of sterodynamic sea-level change Δ𝑍(𝐫), barystatic sea-level rise ℎ𝑏 and GRD-induced RSLC. The contemporary GRD -induced RSLC due to a change 𝛿𝑀𝑖 in any of the stores of water on land (as land water storage or land ice, e.g., in a lake or an ice sheet) has both a barystatic and a GRD-induced effect on sea... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-15 | Geocentric sea-level change Δ𝜂(=Δ𝜁−Δ𝐵+Δ𝐺, Eq. 23) has been measured over most of the global ocean since the early 1990s by satellite radar altimetry, using instruments which are located in a terrestrial reference frame (equivalent to the reference ellipsoid), and measure their vertical distance from the sea surface... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-16 | N19
Altimetry
Section 7
A
Area of the global ocean
Asthenosphere
N21
Astronomical tide
N6
𝑝𝑎
Atmospheric pressure at the
sea surface
ℎ𝑏
Barystatic sea-level rise
N19
𝜙
Barystatic–GRD fingerprint
N24
Bathymetry
N4
Bottom pressure
N18
Bottom topography
N4
Chandler wobble
N6
Compaction
N21
Contemporary GRD
N24
𝜌
Dens... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-17 | Conservation of Mass for Freshwater and Salt
Let the two buckets contain water of mass 𝑀𝑛, volume 𝑉𝑛, salinity 𝑆𝑛, and density 𝜌𝑛, 𝑛=1,2, and assume they have equal Conservative Temperature and equal pressure. Now homogenize the water from the two buckets into a single larger bucket, and assume no change in p... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
14d9a88b20c2-18 | An Ocean Example
To explore the oceanic implications of Eq. (68), assume bucket-1 initially has freshwater with density 𝜌1=𝜌f, whereas bucket-2 initially has sea water with density 𝜌2=𝜌s=𝜌f+𝜌′. The salinity change for bucket-1 is 𝛿𝑆1=𝑆, since this bucket went from its original freshwater concentration to the ... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/gregory19.html |
1a5e23fee427-0 | Horton et al. (2018)
Title:
Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability
Keywords:
sea level, climate change, Holocene, Last Interglacial, Mid-Pliocene Warm Period, sea-level rise projections
Corresponding author:
Horton
Citation:
Horton, B. P., Kopp, R. E., Garner, A. J., Hay, C. C., Khan, N. S., Roy, K.,... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/horton18.html |
1a5e23fee427-1 | Atmosphere/ocean dynamics are the dominant driver of spatial heterogeneity in RSL on annual and multidecadal timescales (18-21), as well as a significant driver on longer timescales during periods with limited land-ice changes, such as the Common Era (22-25). The highest rates of RSL rise over the past two decades (gre... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/horton18.html |
1a5e23fee427-2 | GIA models simulate the evolution of the solid Earth as a function of the rheological structure and ice-sheet history (42, 47, 48). During the glacial phase of a glaciation-deglaciation cycle, the depression of land beneath ice sheets causes a migration of mantle material away from ice-load centers. This migration resu... | https://sealeveldocs.readthedocs.io/en/latest/horton18.html |
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