text stringlengths 1 711 |
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For Periods Ending 12/31/22 |
JOHNSON & JOHNSON % $ Mix % $ Mix % $ Mix |
L4W L13W L52W L4W L13W L52W |
KVUE |
Acid Relief 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 8.7% 8.5% 6.3% |
Allergy 9.3% 9.9% 10.9% 11.2% 12.3% 6.7% |
Antibiotic 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 10.6% 11.1% 9.1% |
Anti-Diarrhea 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 11.0% 10.8% 7.8% |
Antiseptic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 72.0% 68.1% 55.7% |
Baby Bath 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 10.5% 11.5% 12.8% |
Baby Lotion 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 9.1% 10.8% 11.2% |
Baby Oil 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 10.8% 11.0% 9.8% |
Baby Powder 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 13.8% 15.0% 14.3% |
Baby Soap 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 6.3% 11.7% 16.4% |
Bandages 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 11.0% 10.9% 7.3% |
Body Wash 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 5.5% 7.7% 4.3% |
Body Lotion 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% 5.9% 7.0% 5.9% |
Cold & Flu 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 36.1% 61.3% 19.2% |
Digestive Aid 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 9.5% 7.4% 5.3% |
Facial Skin Care 10.1% 10.4% 10.6% 10.8% 14.0% 10.8% |
Mouthwash 9.1% 9.5% 9.3% 9.1% 9.2% 5.3% |
Pain Relief 20.1% 18.7% 16.3% 5.2% 14.8% 4.3% |
Sun Care 6.5% 4.5% 3.8% -2.4% -5.6% -3.6% |
Weighted Total 81.3% 79.1% 76.4% 8.5% 12.3% 6.8% |
YOY EQ Price Change (%) |
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP. |
89 |
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC |
(1-212) 622-6735 |
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com |
North America Equity Research |
29 May 2023 J P M O R G A N |
Figure 151: KVUE Pricing Change by Key Categories - U.S. (Prior Year) |
Change in Pricing in Latest 4, 13 & 52-Weeks |
For Periods Ending 5/7/22 |
JOHNSON & JOHNSON % $ Mix % $ Mix % $ Mix |
L4W L13W L52W L4W L13W L52W |
KVUE |
Acid Relief 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 1.6% 1.2% -0.4% |
Allergy 13.6% 12.4% 10.9% 0.4% 1.4% 2.2% |
Antibiotic 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 7.4% 3.6% 0.1% |
Anti-Diarrhea 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 5.1% 4.6% 2.7% |
Antiseptic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 52.3% 27.4% 5.4% |
Baby Bath 3.3% 3.6% 3.6% 7.1% 10.4% 11.0% |
Baby Lotion 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 8.7% 8.7% 8.1% |
Baby Oil 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 7.6% 8.4% 7.7% |
Baby Powder 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 12.9% 14.6% 10.1% |
Baby Soap 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 14.4% 19.0% 11.9% |
Bandages 4.2% 4.2% 4.5% 5.1% 3.4% 2.7% |
Body Wash 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.1% 0.4% |
Body Lotion 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 6.6% 5.2% 9.8% |
Cold & Flu 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 12.4% -2.7% -8.0% |
Digestive Aid 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 2.6% 2.9% |
Facial Skin Care 10.1% 11.1% 11.5% 4.0% 3.4% 1.3% |
Mouthwash 8.7% 9.3% 9.7% 1.6% 2.4% 6.3% |
Pain Relief 15.3% 15.2% 14.7% -2.8% -5.1% 6.7% |
Sun Care 6.2% 4.4% 4.1% 2.5% 8.4% 12.6% |
Weighted Total 77.8% 77.1% 76.5% 2.3% 2.2% 4.8% |
YOY EQ Price Change (%) |
Source: NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP. |
90 |
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC |
(1-212) 622-6735 |
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com |
North America Equity Research |
29 May 2023 J PMORGAN |
Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks |
Kenvue (Overweight; Price Target: $29.00) |
Investment Thesis |
We rate Kenvue (KVUE) Overweight. As the largest pure-play consumer health company |
in the world, reaching 1.2 billion consumers daily, KVUE benefits from participating in |
large categories where reliability and performance matter for consumers. As such, we highlight five KVUE attributes that underpin our positive view: (1) resilient top-line growth |
expected, (2) room for margin expansion, (3) high cash flow conversion and shareholder- |
friendly capital allocation, (4) management has a strong background not only with JNJ but with other blue-chip CPGs with solid relationships with key customers, and (5) attractive valuation. |
Valuation |
Despite the strong share performance since the IPO, we view current valuation as attractive. |
Our Dec 2023 target price of $29 is based on a blended average of EV/EBITDA (based on |
blended average of HLN, Consumer Health, HPC & Beauty peers) and a DCF based on |
perpetual growth method. We assign a 70% weighting to EV/EBITDA as the primary |
valuation method embedding 15.1.x EV/EBITDA off our 2024E EBITDA estimate of |
$4.0B (implies $27 per share) and 30% weighting to DCF as the secondary valuation method |
embedding $32 per share. KVUE currently trades at 15.5x our 2023E EBITDA and was |
priced at the IPO at 13.3x our 2023E EBITDA. Risks to Rating and Price Target |
We believe the key risks to our OW rating and price target for Kenvue are (1) execution risk |
tied to the separation from JNJ, (2) potential talc litigation outside North America, (3) |
seasonality of cold & flu and allergy medicines, (4) inflation and supply chain volatility, (5) |
risk of trade-down to private label due to deteriorating macroeconomic outlook or pricing |
actions (elasticity), and (5) share overhang from JNJ announced intention to de-consolidate KVUE, which may include a spin-off or split-off KVUE shares, leading to potential short- |
term excess supply of shares. |
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP. |
91 |
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC |
(1-212) 622-6735 |
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com |
North America Equity Research |
29 May 2023 J PMORGAN |
Kenvue: Summary of Financials |
Income Statement - Annual FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E |
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