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Revenue 15,054 14,950 15,662 16,289 16,973
COGS (6,587) (6,610) (6,800) (7,050) (7,246)
Gross profit 8,467 8,340 8,862 9,239 9,727
SG&A (5,061) (5,000) (5,305) (5,515) (5,659)
Adj. EBITDA 3,810 3,606 3,797 3,983 4,308
D&A - - - - -
Adj. EBIT 3,493 3,310 3,487 3,648 3,957
Net Interest 0 0 (283) (379) (367)
Adj. PBT 3,493 3,310 3,204 3,270 3,589
Tax (731) (676) (739) (761) (843)
Minority Interest - - - - -
Adj. Net Income 2,711 2,589 2,404 2,451 2,693
Reported EPS 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.27
Adj. EPS 1.40 1.34 1.24 1.27 1.39
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.81 0.84
Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 71.3% 65.7%
Shares outstanding 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Cash and cash equivalents 740 1,231 1,014 1,013 981
Accounts receivable 2,074 2,122 2,281 2,370 2,471
Inventories 1,702 2,226 1,957 1,852 1,819
Other current assets 408 294 302 311 317
Current assets 4,924 5,874 5,555 5,546 5,588
PP&E 1,827 1,820 1,927 2,074 2,227
LT investments - - - - -
Other non current assets 21,101 19,586 19,638 19,833 20,300
Total assets 27,852 27,280 27,119 27,453 28,115
Short term borrowings - - - - -
Payables 1,827 1,829 1,853 1,937 2,001
Other short term liabilities 2,224 2,105 2,195 2,290 2,378
Current liabilities 4,051 3,934 4,049 4,227 4,379
Long-term debt 0 0 8,512 8,310 8,122
Other long term liabilities 3,785 3,403 3,403 3,403 3,403
Total liabilities 7,836 7,337 15,964 15,940 15,904
Shareholders' equity 20,015 19,943 11,155 11,513 12,211
Minority interests - - - - -
Total liabilities & equity 27,852 27,280 27,119 27,453 28,115
BVPS 10.34 10.31 5.76 5.95 6.31
y/y Growth (6.3%) (0.4%) (44.1%) 3.2% 6.1%
Net debt/(cash) (740) (1,231) 7,498 7,297 7,141
Cash flow from operating activities 3,077 2,407 2,821 2,953 3,268
o/w Depreciation & amortization 680 599 591 599 597
o/w Changes in working capital (49) (672) 134 99 (4)
Cash flow from investing activities (171) (390) (792) (982) (1,254)
o/w Capital expenditure (295) (375) (417) (482) (504)
as % of sales 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%
Cash flow from financing activities (2,743) (1,465) (2,247) (1,972) (2,045)
o/w Dividends paid 0 0 (774) (1,571) (1,618)
o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (7) 14 8,512 (202) (188)
Net change in cash 163 553 (217) (1) (32)
Adj. Free cash flow to firm 2,782 2,032 2,405 2,471 2,763
y/y Growth (26.3%) (27.0%) 18.3% 2.7% 11.8%
Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q23A 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E
Revenue 3,851A 3,947 3,911 3,953
COGS (1,726)A (1,738) (1,666) (1,671)
Gross profit 2,125A 2,209 2,245 2,283
SG&A (1,316)A (1,337) (1,310) (1,343)
Adj. EBITDA 867A 940 1,007 983
D&A - - - -
Adj. EBIT 796A 861 928 903
Net Interest (1)A (90) (96) (95)
Adj. PBT 795A 770 832 808
Tax (150)A (181) (205) (203)
Minority Interest - - - -
Adj. Net Income 630A 574 611 590
Reported EPS 0.29A 0.26 0.28 0.27
Adj. EPS 0.33A 0.30 0.32 0.30
DPS 0.00A 0.00 0.20 0.20
Payout ratio 0.0%A 0.0% 71.0% 73.9%
Shares outstanding 1,935A 1,935 1,935 1,935
Ratio Analysis FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
Gross margin 56.2% 55.8% 56.6% 56.7% 57.3%
EBITDA margin 25.3% 24.1% 24.2% 24.5% 25.4%
EBIT margin 23.2% 22.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.3%
Net profit margin 18.0% 17.3% 15.4% 15.0% 15.9%
ROE 13.1% 13.0% 15.5% 21.6% 22.7%
ROA 9.5% 9.4% 8.8% 9.0% 9.7%
ROCE 13.1% 13.0% 13.2% 13.9% 14.8%
SG&A/Sales 33.6% 33.4% 33.9% 33.9% 33.3%
Net debt/equity NM NM 0.7 0.6 0.6
P/E (x) 18.8 19.7 21.2 20.8 18.9
P/BV (x) 2.5 2.6 4.6 4.4 4.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 14.0 15.7 12.7 11.8
Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 3.1% 3.2%
Sales/Assets (x) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Interest cover (x) - - 13.4 10.5 11.7
Operating leverage 35.2% 756.1% 112.5% 115.6% 201.2%
Revenue y/y Growth 4.1% (0.7%) 4.8% 4.0% 4.2%
EBITDA y/y Growth 0.9% (5.4%) 5.3% 4.9% 8.2%
Tax rate 22.4% 21.8% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Adj. Net Income y/y Growth 0.3% (4.5%) (7.1%) 1.9% 9.9%
EPS y/y Growth 0.3% (4.5%) (7.1%) 1.9% 9.9%
DPS y/y Growth - - - 103.0% 3.0%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP.
92
Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC
(1-212) 622-6735
andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com