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Revenue 15,054 14,950 15,662 16,289 16,973
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COGS (6,587) (6,610) (6,800) (7,050) (7,246)
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Gross profit 8,467 8,340 8,862 9,239 9,727
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SG&A (5,061) (5,000) (5,305) (5,515) (5,659)
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Adj. EBITDA 3,810 3,606 3,797 3,983 4,308
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D&A - - - - -
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Adj. EBIT 3,493 3,310 3,487 3,648 3,957
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Net Interest 0 0 (283) (379) (367)
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Adj. PBT 3,493 3,310 3,204 3,270 3,589
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Tax (731) (676) (739) (761) (843)
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Minority Interest - - - - -
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Adj. Net Income 2,711 2,589 2,404 2,451 2,693
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Reported EPS 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.27
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Adj. EPS 1.40 1.34 1.24 1.27 1.39
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DPS 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.81 0.84
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Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 71.3% 65.7%
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Shares outstanding 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935 1,935
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Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Statement FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
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Cash and cash equivalents 740 1,231 1,014 1,013 981
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Accounts receivable 2,074 2,122 2,281 2,370 2,471
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Inventories 1,702 2,226 1,957 1,852 1,819
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Other current assets 408 294 302 311 317
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Current assets 4,924 5,874 5,555 5,546 5,588
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PP&E 1,827 1,820 1,927 2,074 2,227
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LT investments - - - - -
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Other non current assets 21,101 19,586 19,638 19,833 20,300
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Total assets 27,852 27,280 27,119 27,453 28,115
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Short term borrowings - - - - -
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Payables 1,827 1,829 1,853 1,937 2,001
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Other short term liabilities 2,224 2,105 2,195 2,290 2,378
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Current liabilities 4,051 3,934 4,049 4,227 4,379
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Long-term debt 0 0 8,512 8,310 8,122
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Other long term liabilities 3,785 3,403 3,403 3,403 3,403
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Total liabilities 7,836 7,337 15,964 15,940 15,904
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Shareholders' equity 20,015 19,943 11,155 11,513 12,211
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Minority interests - - - - -
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Total liabilities & equity 27,852 27,280 27,119 27,453 28,115
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BVPS 10.34 10.31 5.76 5.95 6.31
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y/y Growth (6.3%) (0.4%) (44.1%) 3.2% 6.1%
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Net debt/(cash) (740) (1,231) 7,498 7,297 7,141
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Cash flow from operating activities 3,077 2,407 2,821 2,953 3,268
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o/w Depreciation & amortization 680 599 591 599 597
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o/w Changes in working capital (49) (672) 134 99 (4)
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Cash flow from investing activities (171) (390) (792) (982) (1,254)
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o/w Capital expenditure (295) (375) (417) (482) (504)
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as % of sales 2.0% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%
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Cash flow from financing activities (2,743) (1,465) (2,247) (1,972) (2,045)
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o/w Dividends paid 0 0 (774) (1,571) (1,618)
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o/w Net debt issued/(repaid) (7) 14 8,512 (202) (188)
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Net change in cash 163 553 (217) (1) (32)
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Adj. Free cash flow to firm 2,782 2,032 2,405 2,471 2,763
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y/y Growth (26.3%) (27.0%) 18.3% 2.7% 11.8%
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Income Statement - Quarterly 1Q23A 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E
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Revenue 3,851A 3,947 3,911 3,953
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COGS (1,726)A (1,738) (1,666) (1,671)
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Gross profit 2,125A 2,209 2,245 2,283
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SG&A (1,316)A (1,337) (1,310) (1,343)
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Adj. EBITDA 867A 940 1,007 983
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D&A - - - -
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Adj. EBIT 796A 861 928 903
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Net Interest (1)A (90) (96) (95)
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Adj. PBT 795A 770 832 808
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Tax (150)A (181) (205) (203)
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Minority Interest - - - -
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Adj. Net Income 630A 574 611 590
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Reported EPS 0.29A 0.26 0.28 0.27
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Adj. EPS 0.33A 0.30 0.32 0.30
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DPS 0.00A 0.00 0.20 0.20
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Payout ratio 0.0%A 0.0% 71.0% 73.9%
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Shares outstanding 1,935A 1,935 1,935 1,935
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Ratio Analysis FY21A FY22A FY23E FY24E FY25E
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Gross margin 56.2% 55.8% 56.6% 56.7% 57.3%
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EBITDA margin 25.3% 24.1% 24.2% 24.5% 25.4%
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EBIT margin 23.2% 22.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.3%
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Net profit margin 18.0% 17.3% 15.4% 15.0% 15.9%
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ROE 13.1% 13.0% 15.5% 21.6% 22.7%
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ROA 9.5% 9.4% 8.8% 9.0% 9.7%
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ROCE 13.1% 13.0% 13.2% 13.9% 14.8%
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SG&A/Sales 33.6% 33.4% 33.9% 33.9% 33.3%
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Net debt/equity NM NM 0.7 0.6 0.6
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P/E (x) 18.8 19.7 21.2 20.8 18.9
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P/BV (x) 2.5 2.6 4.6 4.4 4.2
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EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 14.0 15.7 12.7 11.8
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Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 3.1% 3.2%
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Sales/Assets (x) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
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Interest cover (x) - - 13.4 10.5 11.7
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Operating leverage 35.2% 756.1% 112.5% 115.6% 201.2%
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Revenue y/y Growth 4.1% (0.7%) 4.8% 4.0% 4.2%
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EBITDA y/y Growth 0.9% (5.4%) 5.3% 4.9% 8.2%
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Tax rate 22.4% 21.8% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
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Adj. Net Income y/y Growth 0.3% (4.5%) (7.1%) 1.9% 9.9%
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EPS y/y Growth 0.3% (4.5%) (7.1%) 1.9% 9.9%
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DPS y/y Growth - - - 103.0% 3.0%
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Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Note: $ in millions (except per-share data).Fiscal year ends Dec. o/w - out of which
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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of DAVID WANG at MARLOWE PARTNERS LP.
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92
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Andrea Teixeira, CFA AC
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(1-212) 622-6735
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andrea.f.teixeira@jpmorgan.com
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