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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that's not a human but is properly trained,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0008-large.html#00:18:33.020
Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that helps you get smarter,
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0008-large.html#00:18:35.900
Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
helps you address your language difficulties
https://karpathy.ai/lexicap/0008-large.html#00:18:37.140
Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
or your math difficulties or what have you.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Why don't we focus on those two?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
The gains societally of making humans smarter and healthier
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
are enormous and those translate for decades and decades
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and we'll all benefit from them.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
There are people who are working on AI safety,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
which is the issue that you're describing
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and there are conversations in the community
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that should there be such problems,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
what should the rules be like?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Google, for example, has announced its policies
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
with respect to AI safety, which I certainly support
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and I think most everybody would support
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and they make sense, right?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So it helps guide the research
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
but the killer robots are not arriving this year
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and they're not even being built.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And on that line of thinking, you said the time scale.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
In this topic or other topics,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
have you found it useful on the business side
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
or the intellectual side to think beyond five, 10 years,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
to think 50 years out?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Has it ever been useful or productive?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
In our industry, there are essentially no examples
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
of 50 year predictions that have been correct.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Let's review AI, right?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
AI, which was largely invented here at MIT
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and a couple of other universities in the 1956, 1957,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
1958, the original claims were a decade or two.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And when I was a PhD student, I studied AI a bit
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and it entered during my looking at it,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
a period which is known as AI winter,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
which went on for about 30 years,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
which is a whole generation of science,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
scientists and a whole group of people
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
who didn't make a lot of progress
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
because the algorithms had not improved
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and the computers had not approved.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It took some brilliant mathematicians
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
starting with a fellow named Jeff Hinton
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
at Toronto and Montreal who basically invented
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
this deep learning model which empowers us today.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
The seminal work there was 20 years ago
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and in the last 10 years, it's become popularized.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So think about the timeframes for that level of discovery.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's very hard to predict.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Many people think that we'll be flying around
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in the equivalent of flying cars, who knows?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
My own view, if I wanna go out on a limb,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
is to say that we know a couple of things
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
about 50 years from now.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
We know that there'll be more people alive.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
We know that we'll have to have platforms
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that are more sustainable because the earth is limited
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in the ways we all know and that the kind of platforms
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that are gonna get built will be consistent
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
with the principles that I've described.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They will be much more empowering of individuals.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They'll be much more sensitive to the ecology
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
because they have to be, they just have to be.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
I also think that humans are gonna be a great deal smarter
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and I think they're gonna be a lot smarter
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
because of the tools that I've discussed with you
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and of course, people will live longer.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Life extension is continuing apace.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
A baby born today has a reasonable chance
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
of living to 100, which is pretty exciting.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's well past the 21st century,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
so we better take care of them.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And you mentioned an interesting statistic
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
on some very large percentage, 60, 70% of people
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
may live in cities.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Today, more than half the world lives in cities
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and one of the great stories of humanity
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in the last 20 years has been the rural to urban migration.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
This has occurred in the United States,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
it's occurred in Europe, it's occurring in Asia
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and it's occurring in Africa.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
When people move to cities, the cities get more crowded,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
but believe it or not, their health gets better,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
their productivity gets better,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
their IQ and educational capabilities improve.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So it's good news that people are moving to cities,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
but we have to make them livable and safe.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So you, first of all, you are,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
but you've also worked with some of the greatest leaders
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in the history of tech.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
What insights do you draw from the difference
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in leadership styles of yourself,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Larry Page,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
now the new CEO, Sandra Pichai and others?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
From the, I would say, calm sages to the mad geniuses.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
One of the things that I learned as a young executive
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
is that there's no single formula for leadership.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They try to teach one, but that's not how it really works.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
There are people who just understand what they need to do
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and they need to do it quickly.
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