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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
you just talked about predicting into the future.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
You've spoken about the importance of thinking
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
five years ahead and having a plan for those five years.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
The way to say it is that almost everybody
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
has a one year plan.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Almost no one has a proper five year plan.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And the key thing to having a five year plan
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
is to having a model for what's going to happen
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
under the underlying platforms.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So here's an example.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Moore's Law as we know it,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
the thing that powered improvements in CPUs
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
has largely halted in its traditional shrinking mechanism
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
because the costs have just gotten so high.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's getting harder and harder.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
But there's plenty of algorithmic improvements
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and specialized hardware improvements.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So you need to understand the nature of those improvements
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and where they'll go in order to understand
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
how it will change the platform.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
In the area of network connectivity,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
what are the gains that are gonna be possible in wireless?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It looks like there's an enormous expansion
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
of wireless connectivity at many different bands.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And that we will primarily,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
historically I've always thought
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that we were primarily gonna be using fiber,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
but now it looks like we're gonna be using fiber
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
plus very powerful high bandwidth
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
sort of short distance connectivity
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
to bridge the last mile.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
That's an amazing achievement.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
If you know that,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
then you're gonna build your systems differently.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
By the way, those networks
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
have different latency properties, right?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Because they're more symmetric,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
the algorithms feel faster for that reason.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And so when you think about whether it's a fiber
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
or just technologies in general,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
so there's this barber wooden poem or quote
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that I really like.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
It's from the champions of the impossible
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
rather than the slaves of the possible
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that evolution draws its creative force.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So in predicting the next five years,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
I'd like to talk about the impossible and the possible.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Well, and again, one of the great things about humanity
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
is that we produce dreamers, right?
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
We literally have people who have a vision and a dream.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They are, if you will, disagreeable
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in the sense that they disagree with the,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
they disagree with what the sort of zeitgeist is.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They say there is another way.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
They have a belief, they have a vision.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
If you look at science, science is always marked
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
by such people who went against some conventional wisdom,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
collected the knowledge at the time
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and assembled it in a way that produced a powerful platform.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And you've been amazingly honest about,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in an inspiring way, about things you've been wrong
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
about predicting and you've obviously been right
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
about a lot of things, but in this kind of tension,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
how do you balance, as a company,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
in predicting the next five years,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
the impossible, planning for the impossible,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
so listening to those crazy dreamers, letting them do,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
letting them run away and make the impossible real,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
make it happen, and slow, you know,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that's how programmers often think,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and slowing things down and saying,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
well, this is the rational, this is the possible,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
the pragmatic, the dreamer versus the pragmatist,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
so it's helpful to have a model
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
which encourages a predictable revenue stream
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
as well as the ability to do new things.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So in Google's case, we're big enough
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and well enough managed and so forth
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that we have a pretty good sense of what our revenue will be
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
for the next year or two, at least for a while.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And so we have enough cash generation
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that we can make bets, and indeed,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
Google has become alphabet,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
so the corporation is organized around these bets,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
and these bets are in areas of fundamental importance
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
to the world, whether it's artificial intelligence,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
medical technology, self driving cars,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
connectivity through balloons, on and on and on.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And there's more coming and more coming.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So one way you could express this
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
is that the current business is successful enough
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that we have the luxury of making bets.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
And another one that you could say
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
is that we have the wisdom of being able to see
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
that a corporate structure needs to be created
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
to enhance the likelihood of the success of those bets.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So we essentially turned ourselves into a conglomerate
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
of bets and then this underlying corporation, Google,
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
which is itself innovative.
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Eric Schmidt: Google | Lex Fridman Podcast #8
So in order to pull this off,
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