Text stringlengths 6 555 | Date stringclasses 43 values | Code stringclasses 43 values | Tag stringclasses 6 values | Section stringclasses 2 values | Number float64 0 4.2 ⌀ | Topic float64 | Label stringclasses 6 values |
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The alternative monetary policy is illustrated by the red line in the right-hand image in Figure 15. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | None |
The fact that the interest rate is set at a lower level than in the main scenario means that inflation is held up and comes close to the target, which is shown in the red line in the left-hand image in Figure 15. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The lower interest rate also softens the fall in demand, and the GDP level approaches the main scenario during the forecast period. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
This is illustrated by the red line in Figure 16. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Higher interest rates are holding back lending | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_title | null | 2 | null | negative |
After a period of policy rate rises, many central banks are now letting monetary policy act by maintaining their policy rates at current levels. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Instead, market participants expect policy rates to be cut over the next year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | dovish |
However, the central banks have communicated that their vigilance about inflation remains high, that cuts should not be expected in the near future and that further increases cannot be ruled out. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
The krona has appreciated and is presently slightly stronger than it was at the monetary policy decision in September but remains weaker than normal. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
The policy rate rises in Sweden have had a relatively rapid and powerful impact on households as many households are highly indebted and have short interest-rate fixation periods. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
The higher level of interest rates is also being felt by companies but the lending rates faced by companies vary quite considerably from sector to sector. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
The higher interest rates have also led to very low demand for credit among households and companies. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
The transmission of the Riksbank’s monetary policy to the interest rates faced by households and companies is considered to be working well. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Major fluctuations in interest rates and the krona | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 2.1 | null | negative |
Many central banks are holding their policy rates on the current levels | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | neutral |
Most central banks, like the Riksbank, have raised their policy rates quickly since the start of last year (see Figure 17 and Table 1). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
Policy rates are at restrictive levels and the pace of the policy rate increases has slowed down since last spring. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
Many central banks are now allowing monetary policy to act by holding their policy rates on the current levels and they are communicating that vigilance over inflation remains high. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The door is being left open for continued raises, while rate cuts are not being discussed at all in their communication. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
According to the pricing of forward contracts for short-term money market rates, market participants have lowered their expectations of policy rates since the September monetary policy meeting. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In many cases, policy rate peaks are expected to be close and market participants are expecting to see lower policy rates within one year (see Figure 17). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Major movements in longer term market rates | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | neutral |
Since the central banks started to raise their policy rates, the hikes have had an impact on short-term and long-term market rates. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden too, short-term and long-term market rates have risen as a consequence of the contractionary monetary policy (see Figure 18 and Figure 19). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Yields on longer maturities have also risen in Sweden this year, partly due to rising expectations of future policy rates in the medium term (see Figure 19). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Yields on bonds with maturities of 5 years have also risen clearly over the year, although these rates too have also fallen slightly in recent weeks (see Figure 20). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The spread between yields on bonds with a higher credit risk than government bonds and so-called swap rates increased in 2022 (see Figure 20). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
These yield spreads have remained in varying degrees since then. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In recent months, the spread for corporate bonds has decreased significantly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The higher market rates have also put pressure on global equity markets. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
When the interest rate increases began at the beginning of 2022, stock markets initially fell and then began to recover again towards the end of the year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
There have been substantial movements on the stock market since the summer. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The stock market fell up to the end of October, and then began to rise clearly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The Swedish stock exchange has generally shown even weaker development, and, during the same period, has lost about one-fifth of its value. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The krona has somewhat but is still at weak levels | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Since the start of 2022, the krona has depreciated by about 10 per cent, measured as the KIX4 (see figure 21). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Over the corresponding period, the overall development of the krona exchange rate has also been weaker than in the Riksbank’s forecasts (see the article “The krona will strengthen in the medium term” in the September Monetary Policy Report for possible reasons for this). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In conjunction with the monetary policy meeting in September, the krona appreciated clearly against the euro and the dollar and, since then, there have been substantial movements in the krona exchange rate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The krona appreciated significantly in conjunction with the publication of outcomes for the US labour market and inflation in November. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The major fluctuations in conjunction with these events illustrate the great significance that events abroad have for the krona exchange rate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
All in all, the krona has appreciated during this period by just shy of 5 per cent measured as the KIX4, although it remains at weak levels. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Low demand for credit among households and companies | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 2.2 | null | negative |
Deposit and lending rates have continued to rise | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Deposit and lending rates have continued to rise The banks obtain funding by issuing bonds and other securities, through deposits from the general public and by using equity. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Deposits from households and nonfinancial companies make up almost 40 per cent of the major Swedish banks’ total funding. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The remainder consists in particular of covered bonds, which are the largest source of financing for Swedish mortgages. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Which interest rates the banks offer on loans to households and companies largely depend on the costs of funding the loans. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Over the year, yields on covered bonds and deposit rates have continued to rise and contributed to an increase in the bank’s funding costs (see Figure 20 and Figure 22). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
All in all, this has contributed to lending rates to houses and companies increasing rapidly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, deposit rates for current accounts, for example, have been raised significantly more slowly than the policy rate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This has resulted in households starting to move money to savings accounts, either with the same bank or with a competitor, as these offer a higher interest rate than most on-demand deposit accounts. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This behaviour could increase competition between banks for the general public’s deposits and contribute to the banks raising deposit rates more. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Swedish households’ borrowing is growing at a historically slow rate | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Compared with many other countries, Swedish households have relatively short interest-rate fixation periods on their mortgages. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Around 90 per cent of the loan volume has a remaining interest-fixation period of two years or less. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The percentage of households with variable-rate loans has also increased recently, which can probably be explained by the unusually small interest rate differences between loans with short and long interest-rate fixation periods. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This means that policy rate increases affect households in Sweden more quickly than is the case in many other countries. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The average interest rate on new and renegotiated mortgages has risen from around 1.4 per cent in January 2022 to just over 4.7 per cent in September 2023. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This corresponds to a pass-through from policy rate increases of around 80 per cent, which is in line with the historical average. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The monetary policy transmission to households’ mortgage rates is therefore assessed to be functioning well. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
For the total stock of outstanding mortgages, the average rate has risen from about 1.5 per cent to around 3.7 per cent in the same period. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This interest rate has not increased to the same extent as the policy rate due to there still being households that have not needed to renegotiate their mortgage rates and therefore have not yet been affected by the higher interest rates. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
As mortgages are renegotiated, the full expected effect of the policy rate increases will not become visible in the total mortgage stock until 2025 | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
As the policy rate and mortgage rates have been raised, the growth rate in households’ bank borrowing has declined to historically low levels (see Figure 23). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The turnover on the housing market has also fallen, which means that there are fewer households taking out new mortgages. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, the price fall in the housing market means that the loans taken out by households have tended to be smaller (see Chapter 3). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Credit growth among companies continuing to slow down | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Swedish companies mainly obtain funding through bank loans. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The percentage of bank loans with interest-rate fixation periods of one year or less is greater for companies than for households, which means that companies are also quickly affected by policy rate changes.23 The average interest rate on new and renegotiated loans has risen from about 1.7 per cent to around 5.6 per cent, which means that the interest rate has risen to about the same extent as the policy rate (see Figure 22). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The transmission to corporate interest rates is thus good and in line with historical patterns. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Since the start of 2022, companies’ average interest rate on outstanding loans has risen from about 1.4 per cent to about 4.7 per cent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, there are differences between corporate sectors. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
For example, the average interest rate paid by tenantowner housing associations has increased by a relatively small degree since 2022, as their loans have a longer interest-rate fixation period than many other companies. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Average interest rates have increased more rapidly in the property sector (see Figure 24). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, differences in the property sector, where both interest-rate fixation periods on existing loans and terms for new loans vary. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This also means that the range for lending rates companies are now paying varies considerably. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Over the last year, the increase in total corporate borrowing has slowed down significantly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The slowdown is broad-based and applies to all sectors. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The annual rate of increase in bank borrowing amounted to 4.0 per cent in September. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Corporate funding via the issuance of interest-bearing securities is continuing to decrease (see Figure 23). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Higher interest costs and falling investment are contributing to the lower credit growth. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Inflation is falling and economic activity in Sweden and abroad is slowing down | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_title | null | 3 | null | negative |
The contractionary monetary policy has contributed to a clear decline in inflation in Sweden and abroad. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
However, the rate of increase in the prices of many goods and services is still higher than normal in Sweden. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, the decline in underlying inflation compared with abroad has been somewhat slower here. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
At the same time, price changes measured over shorter periods than one year have fallen rapidly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
This suggests that inflationary pressures are lower, and different indicators point to it slowing further in the period ahead. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
At the same time, the slowdown in the Swedish economy is becoming increasingly clear. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
This also applies to growth in the euro area, which has slowed down as monetary policy has been tightened over the last year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
In many countries, there are increasingly clear signs of the labour market cooling. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
The Riksbank’s assessment is nevertheless that the economic slowdown will be relatively short-lived and that both output and employment will gradually strengthen from the second half of next year onwards. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation continuing to fall in Sweden and abroad | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 3.1 | null | positive |
Successively lower inflation outcomes | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
In Sweden, CPIF inflation amounted to 4.2 per cent in October. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Lower energy prices are an important reason for the decline in price increases but, even if the direct effects of energy prices are excluded, inflation has fallen, albeit not as rapidly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of increase in the CPIF excluding energy was 6.1 per cent in October. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The development of corresponding measures for the euro area and the United States resembles that of Sweden except that inflation has fallen further there. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The fall in inflation becomes even clearer if we study price changes measured over time periods shorter than one year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Figure 28 shows seasonally adjusted price changes 1, 3, 6 and 12 months ahead calculated in annualised terms for the CPIF excluding energy and foreign travel. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of price increase over 12 months is the highest, but has fallen gradually during the year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
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