Text stringlengths 6 555 | Date stringclasses 43 values | Code stringclasses 43 values | Tag stringclasses 6 values | Section stringclasses 2 values | Number float64 0 4.2 ⌀ | Topic float64 | Label stringclasses 6 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price changes over shorter periods have come down more rapidly and are now at lower levels. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation has also slowed regardless of the time horizon studied and if this development continues, the 12-monthly figures will also start to decline gradually. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, the rate of price increase according to this measure has been higher than the corresponding measures in the euro area and the United States in 2022 and 2023. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Recently, however, developments in Sweden have come close to those abroad and are now also relatively close to a level that is compatible with the inflation target. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
One way of calculating measures of underlying inflation is to exclude certain predetermined components in the CPIF in which the price variations are considered to be more temporary than in other components. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The CPIF excluding energy is an example of such a measure. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Another way is to use statistical methods to try to lessen the significance of components in the CPIF whose prices fluctuate sharply. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Like the CPIF excluding energy, other measures of underlying inflation also show that the rate of price increase has slowed down. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The median of five different measures has recently turned down (see left-hand image in Figure 30). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Here too, it can be see that price changes over periods shorter than one year, red bars, have gradually slowed down in Sweden over the last year and the median amounted to just over 2 per cent in October. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Of the different measures included in the calculation of the median, CPIF excluding energy has been the highest for some time (see right-hand image in Figure 30). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Lower rate of increase in prices of food and other goods ... | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | neutral |
Monetary policy has contributed to a recent slowdown in Inflation in Sweden but there are differences in price development between various components. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of price increase for food has fallen in Sweden and abroad, although levels remain high (see Figure 31). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The decline is due to lower demand, which has contributed to increased competition. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This in turn has made it more difficult for companies to continue to raise the prices substantially. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, commodity prices are now lower and production costs have declined. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The imbalances between supply and demand have eased and this, together with the same factors that explain the downturn in the rates of increase in food prices, can also explain why the rate of price increase for other goods prices in Sweden and abroad has slowed down. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, the decline in inflation has been somewhat slower than abroad, which is probably connected with the depreciation of the krona and with imported goods and services having become more expensive. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
... at the same time as services prices continue to rise relatively rapidly | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Services prices are the component that has made the biggest contribution to the continued high CPIF inflation in Sweden (see Figure 4). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In Sweden and the euro area, where the rate of increase in services prices has not fallen so much yet, it is instead prices for other services that have continued to rise. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Strong demand as a probable explanation for developments in Sweden can be seen, for instance, in the relatively rapid price increases in those services sectors that have coped well since the pandemic. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
One example is the hotel and restaurant sector. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, the effect of large, pandemicrelated weight adjustments in the services price aggregate, especially for foreign travel, have pushed up the annual rate of price increase in 2023. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The effect has now started to fade, but stripped of this weight adjustment, the rate of increase in services prices will nevertheless be a whole percentage point lower (see Figure 35). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Companies’ price rises can be due to either their marginal costs having increased or them raising the price mark-up in excess of the costs. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
According to the Economic Tendency Survey, the main contribution to higher sales prices in the service sector in 2021-2023 was made by factors that can be itemised under the term costs. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Domestic costs explain most of the rise in services prices, although higher import costs have also made a contribution. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Factors that can be itemised under the term price markups, i.e. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
demand and other factors, are now making a small negative contribution, according to companies’ responses in the Tendency Survey. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
However, these factors have played a much smaller role in price changes in recent years according to this survey (see Figure 32). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Inflation slowing further in Sweden and abroad | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of increase in producer prices for consumer goods has slowed in several countries. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This also applies to Sweden, where it is primarily prices for imported consumer goods that have created a certain volatility in producer prices recently. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In addition, survey responses from the retail trade indicate that the percentage of companies planning to raise prices is gradually falling, even though the percentage is still higher than it was before inflation picked up (see Figure 33). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In the Riksbank’s latest business survey, several companies, particularly those within the trade sector, report that they are no longer planning to continue to raise sales prices. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Uncertainty is higher among other companies but, in general, they state that cost pressures overall have eased since the spring. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Monetary policy causing inflation to fall and approach the target next year | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
Demand is now slowing down in Sweden and abroad, due to rapid monetary policy tightening, and this is contributing to gradually lower inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The Riksbank projects resource utilisation in Sweden to fall and be lower than normal in 2024 and 2025. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, wage agreements and wage increases outside the scope of the agreements indicate that wages and unit labour costs will rise at a rate that, given economic developments in general, is compatible with inflation falling back towards the target. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
As cost increases decline, demand weakens and inflation abroad falls rapidly, companies are not expected to continue to raise prices as much as previously. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, long-term inflation expectations are well anchored close to 2 per cent, which suggests that economic agents still have high confidence in the inflation target. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The Riksbank also assesses that the krona is undervalued and will appreciate gradually in the coming years, which will also help cool inflation (see Figure 34). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
However, rents and tenant-owner housing association fees are expected to increase unusually rapidly in the coming years, which will have the opposite effect on the rate of price increase for services. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of increase in services prices is nevertheless expected to decline as monetary policy tightening and continued low real incomes restrain demand among households (see Figure 35). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
All in all, this is expected to mean that inflation measured both as the CPIF and the CPIF excluding energy will continue to fall and be close to 2 per cent in the second half of 2024 (see Figure 36). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The monthly percentage change in the CPIF excluding energy is expected to be somewhat higher than normal for a few more months (see Figure 35). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
On the other hand, CPIF inflation is expected to fall rapidly, as energy prices will make a negative contribution over most of the forecast period. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
CPIF inflation will be higher than the other inflation measures in 2024 and 2025 as mortgage interest payments will make a positive contribution. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Economic activity has slowed down in Sweden | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 3.2 | null | negative |
The slowdown seems to be proceeding more rapidly in Sweden and the euro area than in the United States | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Economic developments have recently been weaker in Sweden and the euro area than in the United States. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In Sweden, which had a strong recovery after the pandemic, GDP growth had already fallen by mid-2022 while it slowed somewhat later in the euro area. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
One important reason for this is that parts of the Swedish economy are more interestrate sensitive. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Households and, to an extent, companies, primarily some property companies, are highly indebted and have a high proportion of variable-rate loans, which means they are rapidly affected by interest-rate adjustments (see Section 2.2 in Chapter 2). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Household consumption has fallen significantly in Sweden since the rate rises started in 2022 and development is weak both from a historical perspective and compared with other countries. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, housing investment has fallen noticeably as interest rate rises have both gradually restrained demand for new housing and increased housing companies’ funding costs (see Figure 3). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
On the other hand, Swedish exports have developed relatively well and have contributed to maintaining growth. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Sweden’s GDP was unchanged in the third quarter of this year, seasonally adjusted and compared to the previous quarter, according to preliminary outcomes. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Indicators show that household consumption developed slightly more strongly than in the previous quarter and thereby made a positive contribution to GDP. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
There are signs that the labour market in Sweden has cooled | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Similar to GDP, the recovery in the Swedish labour market was strong after the pandemic. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
And the labour market has remained strong up to the end of the first half of this year despite the rapid monetary policy tightening. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
There are several explanations for this. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
One is that real wages have fallen in step with the rising inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In turn, this has meant that the cost for labour has become lower in relation to the cost of capital, and this may have contributed to a stronger demand for labour. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Another explanation could be that more companies are choosing to retain their labour, despite expecting lower demand and production. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The explanation could be because companies want to avoid the situation that arose after the pandemic when it was difficult to recruit staff with the right skills. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In addition, the employment-intensive services sector has had a strong recovery after the pandemic and demographic factors mean that the demand for labour is high in the public sector, for example in health and social care. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
But there are now signs that the labour market in Sweden has cooled. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
According to Statistics Sweden’s labour force surveys (LFS), unemployment has risen, even if development is volatile and relatively difficult to interpret (see Figure 38). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Unemployment according to the Swedish Public Employment Service also rose slightly further in October and now amounts to 6.5 per cent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Redundancy notices were more in October than in September and the trend has been faintly rising for a while. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Other indicators, such as the number of newly registered job openings, fell relatively sharply in October and also suggest that the strong demand for labour has declined. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Furthermore, bankruptcies have increased, although the number of employees affected by these remains relatively small. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In Sweden, wage growth rose over the first six months of the year but it is still significantly lower than in the euro area and United States. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
According to some indicators, wage growth has gradually slowed down in the euro area despite the continued strong labour market. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Measured using the GDP gap, resource utilisation is lower than normal in Sweden, while the employment gap indicates that resource utilisation remains higher than normal (see Figure 39). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Taken together, various indicators suggest that resource utilisation has fallen and that it is now close to normal levels. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Indicators point to weaker economic activity in the coming quarters | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Economic activity is expected to slow down at the end of 2023 in both Sweden and the euro area and at the start of 2024 in the United States as the tighter monetary policy has an increasing impact and demand declines. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Forward-looking confidence indicators in Sweden, such as the Economic Tendency Survey, are on low levels and indicate that companies in the trade sector and service sector are taking a relatively gloomy view of development in the approaching quarter (see Figure 40). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Household confidence indicators are at a low level but are still above the lowest point from October 2022. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Business sector recruitment plans are now also suggesting workforce cutbacks over the next few months. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Combined with other labour market indicators that are deemed to have forward-looking characteristics, this indicates that unemployment will rise in the next few quarters and that employment will fall. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In the Riksbank’s latest business survey, companies also assess that activity in the economy will continue to slow down and the weak economic situation will continue over the next six months. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
According to companies’ responses, the split in the business sector will persist, with companies selling directly to households continuing to experience very weak demand while export companies will experience conditions as better. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Despite nominal wages rising at a faster rate, real wages will fall again this year as a result of the high inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Real disposable household income per capita is also expected to fall this year (see Figure 41). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Next year, when inflation is expected to be back around the target, real wages are assessed to rise again. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The economic situation will improve towards the end of 2024 | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
Demand abroad will gradually rise from the start of the second six months of 2024 when inflation will be close to target and households’ real incomes will strengthen. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
As growth picks up internationally, Swedish export growth is also expected to increase in 2024. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Activity in the Swedish economy is also expected to pick up gradually in 2024. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation will fall back and real disposable household income will increase, which will lead to higher consumption. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Household savings as a share of disposable income will therefore decrease gradually over the forecast period and level off on the same level as before the pandemic. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
During the autumn, the interest-to-income ratio, households’ interest expenses as a percentage of their disposable income, has continued to increase as a consequence of more loans having matured and been renewed at a variable interest rate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Over the next year, the interest-to-income ratio is expected to rise slightly further before peaking at the start of 2025 (see Figure 42). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.