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This is also true in other countries. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
However, the assessment is that both production and employment will gradually strengthen from the second half of next year onwards. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
The tighter monetary policy has contributed to inflation beginning to fall both abroad and in Sweden. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
Even more high frequency data indicates that the largest price increases are behind us. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
However, there is still considerable uncertainty. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
The krona is weak and the rate of price increase particularly for services but also goods is still higher than normal, showing that inflation is broad-based. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
Monetary policy is now softening demand in the economy, which in combination with the effects of supply shocks continuing to fade, suggests that inflation will fall back further and be close to 2 per cent some time next year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Lower inflation in Sweden and abroad | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 3.1 | null | negative |
Indicators point to inflation declining further | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
The tighter monetary policy has contributed to inflation beginning to fall both abroad and in Sweden, but there are substantial differences between countries. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, CPIF inflation amounted to 4.7 per cent in August. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
CPIF inflation has thus more than halved since the highest reading in December 2022. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
One factor contributing to the downturn is that energy prices are much lower now than they were one year ago. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Even adjusted for energy prices, inflation has fallen, although not as quickly. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The rate of increase in the CPIF excluding energy was 7.2 per cent in August. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The development of inflation in the euro area and the United States is similar to in Sweden, but the fall in inflation is slightly more advanced in the United States where inflation also increased earlier than elsewhere (see Figure 28). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Like the CPIF excluding energy, other measures of underlying inflation followed by the Riksbank have begun to fall in Sweden in recent months.29 The fact that inflation is declining in Sweden and abroad can also be seen in price changes over shorter periods of time than one year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The three-month change in inflation excluding energy is lower now than last year (see Figure 29). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
But the figure also shows that the rate of price increase according to this measure is still significantly higher in 2023 than in
2021 for both the euro area and Sweden, and also higher than is compatible with the inflation target. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
If the volatile price index for foreign travel is excluded from services, the rate of price increase is not as high, but still higher than in 2021. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Several factors that were previously pushing up inflation in Sweden are now instead contributing to inflation falling. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
One of the most important reasons is lower energy prices, which are now making a clearly negative contribution to CPIF inflation (see Figure 5). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Lower energy prices have also helped to cool cost and price pressures in earlier stages of production, which should indirectly affect other consumer prices. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
One example is the price of chemical fertiliser, which has fallen substantially, which in turn has reduced the prices of food in the commodity channel. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, the euro area and the United States, the rate of price increase in producer prices for consumer goods has slowed down substantially since the first half of 2022. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Looking at price changes over shorter time periods than one year, the prices for input goods and consumer goods are now close to their historical average in Sweden (see Figure 30). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This is expected to lead to the rate of increase in consumer prices continuing to be pushed down. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Indicators, such as surveys of companies’ pricing plans, also point to a continued lower rate of price increase during the second half of this year, both in Sweden and abroad. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, there are now fewer companies in the retail trade who are planning to raise prices, although the proportion is still unusually high. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Within the consumer goods industry, on the other hand, the percentage of Swedish companies planning to raise prices to their retailers has fallen very rapidly and is now unusually low (see Figure 4). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
At the same time, purchasing managers’ indices show that the costs of commodities and input goods in the manufacturing sector are low. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
According to the same source, costs for service companies have also slowed down since spring 2022, although not as much as in the manufacturing sector. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
At the same time as the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine are decreasing, demand is now also slowing down as many central banks have tightened monetary policy (see Sections 3.2 and 3.3 in this chapter for a more detailed description of real economic developments in Sweden and abroad). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The largest price increases are thus considered to be behind us, and inflation is expected to fall back both abroad and in Sweden. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
But the situation is uncertain. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of price increase in food, other goods and in particular services is still higher than normal in Sweden, indicating that the inflation is broad-based. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The downturn has also been slower than expected so far. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The weak krona exchange rate and how it affects inflation is also a cause for concern going forward. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Continued high rates of increase in service prices in Sweden and abroad | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Although inflation has cooled, many service prices continue to increase rapidly in Sweden and abroad (see Figure 31). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Comparing service prices, it should be noted that both the content and the weight in the price aggregate differ between countries and regions, which can explain the differences in development. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden and the euro area, housing costs carry a lower weight and have not risen as much. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
On the other hand, the rate of price increase in other services has continued to rise. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The significance of high demand in this development can be seen, for instance, in the relatively rapid price increases in those service sectors that have developed strongly since the pandemic. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
One example is the hotel and restaurant sector. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In Sweden, changes in consumer behaviour during the pandemic have also resulted in relatively large weight adjustments in the service price aggregate, which affect the rate of price increase. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This applies in particular to foreign travel, where significant seasonal variations in prices over the year, combined with weighting changes, have
contributed to a higher calculated rate of price increase in the services aggregate over the summer (see Figure 31). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
However, this effect is already expected to fade in autumn 2023. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The krona has weakened further in recent times | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
The krona has depreciated considerably over the past year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
There are explanations for this weak development, but the depreciation has been significantly larger than expected | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Changes in the exchange rate affect inflation. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The impact can vary over time depending on what has caused the actual exchange rate change and how long the change in the krona rate is expected to last. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
There are also indications that prices are more affected by exchange rate changes when inflation and uncertainty are already high. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
According to the most recent business survey, goods-producing companies in particular also state that the weak krona exchange rate is an important reason for planned price increases | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Monetary policy contributing to inflation falling back | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation rose rapidly last year and is still too high. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, inflation has fallen since the end of last year and is expected to continue to fall this year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
One important reason for this is that energy prices are continuing to fall on an annual rate. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
At the same time, other prices are expected to continue rising, but at a slower pace. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Cooler demand in Sweden and abroad is contributing to this development (see Sections 3.2 and 3.3). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This, combined with falling
inflation expectations, means that companies are no longer planning to continue to increase prices at the same pace as last year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of increase in food prices has slowed significantly and prices have even fallen during a few months this year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
This is partly because costs have decreased generally. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The costs for energy, for example, have fallen. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
This normally affect the entire supply chain in the food industry, from farming to transport and processing, storage and sale. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The high inflation with sharp price increases in food combined with cooler demand, due in part to tighter monetary policy, has also made households more price-sensitive, leading them to compare prices and look for cheaper alternatives. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This limits the possibilities for wholesalers and supermarkets to continue to increase their prices without losing sales volume. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
During the rest of the year and next year, the rate of increase in food prices is expected to slow further (see Figure 32). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The same applies to other goods prices, whose monthly percentage changes have been unusually high most recently, which may be linked to the krona having continued to depreciate. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
But the monthly changes have nevertheless been clearly lower this year than during 2022. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The Riksbank also assesses that the krona will strengthen gradually in the coming years, which will help cool inflation (see Figure 33). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The rate of increase in service prices is also expected to stop rising apace with the monetary policy tightening and lower real incomes will dampen demand among households. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, rents and tenant-owner housing association fees are expected to increase more rapidly in the coming years, which will sustain the rate of increase in service prices. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Inflation is expected to be close to target in 2024 | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
All in all, the combination of tight monetary policy and fading effects of previous supply shocks mean that inflation measured both as the CPIF and the CPIF excluding energy will continue to fall and be close to 2 per cent some time next year (see Figure 34). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Long-term inflation expectations are close to 2 per cent, which suggests that economic agents still have confidence in the inflation target. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Wage agreements also suggest that wages will rise at a pace that, given economic developments in general, is compatible with inflation returning to target. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Swedish economy shrinking in 2023 | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 3.3 | null | negative |
Sentiment is now worse than normal in all parts of the business sector | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
After a strong recovery following the pandemic, GDP has over the past year been slightly weaker in Sweden than in the United States and the euro area. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This is mainly because household consumption has declined and housing investment has fallen sharply. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Up to the end of the first quarter 2023, investment was maintained and exports were relatively strong. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
During the second quarter of the year, however, exports fell significantly and net exports became very weak. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
At the same time, housing investment continued to decline rapidly and consumption to develop weakly. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Moreover, stock investment increased more slowly, which weighed on GDP. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
GDP fell by 0.8 per cent in the second quarter. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Indicators point to growth continuing to be weak in Sweden for some time to come. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
According to surveys, confidence in the retail trade and private service sectors remains low. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Sentiment in the retail trade has deteriorated as the consumption of goods, and in particular durable goods, has fallen (see Figure 37 and Figure 38). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, the consumption of services has so far not declined to the same extent. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
According to the Economic Tendency Survey, confidence in the manufacturing sector has also recently gone from some optimism to lower than normal (see Figure 39). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Although order stocks are deemed to be somewhat larger than normal, new orders are weak and, as in the euro area, an increasing number of manufacturing companies now say that weak demand has become a key obstacle to production. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Both domestic demand and exports are therefore expected to develop weakly going forward. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Demand appears to be a greater concern for companies in Sweden than in the euro area. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Consumer confidence, according to the Economic Tendency Survey, remains very low. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Consumption is therefore expected to continue to be weak and to remain at roughly the same level as in the second quarter for the remainder of the year, which on the whole entails a lower level this year than in 2022. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
All in all, economic activity is expected to decline in Sweden in 2023. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Higher consumer prices and interest expenses are expected to continue to limit households’ purchasing power. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The weak development in consumption, the lower demand for Swedish exports and the higher interest rates are subduing business sector investments excluding housing. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
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