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At the same time, the green transition and new technology require major investments in the manufacturing industry, which means that growth in investment is nevertheless not expected to be as weak as in previous economic downturns. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Next year, the Government will implement new unfinanced measures for SEK 40, of which 4 billion are tax cuts to households. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | dovish |
All in all, fiscal policy is judged to be neutral during the forecast period. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Falling housing prices and housing investment | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Housing prices have on the whole risen somewhat so far this year, compared with the end of last year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
During the second half of 2023, however, housing prices are expected to fall somewhat again. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
During the summer, the supply of housing has increased on the second-hand market, and this is expected to strengthen competition among sellers and push down prices in the autumn. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In addition, interest expenses are expected to rise as the policy rate increases affect more and more households. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
All in all, housing prices are expected to fall by almost 15 per cent in relation to the peak in February 2022. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The weak demand for newly built housing has caused the number of new builds to decline significantly. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Housing construction has fallen rapidly and housing investment has declined constantly since the middle of 2022. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Housing investments are expected to continue falling until the end of the first half of 2024 (see Figure 40). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Increasingly clear signs that the labour market is also cooling | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
The signs that the labour market is cooling down are becoming clearer, but the starting position is still strong and the employment rate is high (see Figure 36). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
There are several explanations why the labour market has so far been strong. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
One is that real wages have fallen in line with the increase in inflation, which means that the cost of labour has become lower in relation to the cost of capital. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This may have helped strengthen the demand for labour. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Another explanation could be that more companies are choosing to retain their workforces, despite expecting lower demand and production. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This is because companies want to avoid the situation that arose after the pandemic when it was difficult to recruit staff with the right skills. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
However, indicators point to the strong demand for labour now slowing down. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Recruitment plans, which fell by a relatively large amount in July and were still low in August, point to employment in the business sector in general remaining unchanged in the coming period. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The picture is different in different sectors, but in all of them except private service sectors, recruitment plans now point to worse development than normal (see Figure 41). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
During the third quarter, however, employment will continue to increase somewhat further. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Towards the end of the year, the falling economic activity is expected to have an impact on the labour market and bring employment down, but all in all the labour market is nevertheless expected to withstand the fall in GDP relatively well (see Figure 42). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Swedish economy expected to recover towards the end of 2024 | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
During 2024, households’ real disposable incomes are expected to rise again. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
This will strengthen household consumption and also contribute to a gradual recovery in the housing market. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Housing investment is also expected to cease falling during the second half of 2024. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Demand abroad will also rise gradually in 2024, which will strengthen Swedish exports and boost companies’ propensity to invest. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Overall, this will mean that GDP will start to grow faster than the long-term trend towards the end of 2024. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
As economic activity in Sweden increases, the demand for labour will also rise. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Unemployment is expected to peak at the end of 2024, and then begin to fall when employment begins to increase again (see Figure 42). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Real wages and real disposable income will fall this year but begin rising again next year | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Wage growth has risen during the first half of the year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
It is expected to continue rising and peak at the beginning of next year, which is also in line with the profile of the central wage agreements. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The wage agreements that in most cases will apply until the beginning of 2025, mean that wage growth this year and next year will be higher than last year.35 Well-anchored inflation expectations and credibility for the inflation target helped the parties conclude moderate agreements. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
But the high inflation and strong labour market are important reasons why the wage agreements were nevertheless signed at a higher level than the previous ones. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Despite nominal wages rising at a faster pace, real wages will also fall this year as a result of the high inflation (see Figure 43). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Low real wages, rising interest rates and lower employment also mean that real household disposable income per capita will wage increase of 7.4 per cent, divided into 4.1 per cent the first year and 3.3 per cent the second year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Agreements in other areas have been reached for similar levels. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Until now, inflation has accounted for the largest negative contribution to disposable household income, but this is expected to decline gradually. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
As many fixed interest rate contracts expire and new ones are signed at higher interest rates, households’ interest expenses as a percentage of their disposable income, known as the interestto-income ratio, will increase. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
At the beginning of 2025, the interest-to-income ratio is expected to amount to almost 7 per cent (see Figure 44). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The corresponding interestto-income ratio for households has also increased this year as a result of households choosing savings over consumption and receiving more interest on their bank accounts than before. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
However, households’ loans are roughly twice as large as bank deposits, which means that interest expenditure in total is larger than interest income. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Compared to the years before the pandemic, household savings increased when restrictions meant that it was not possible to consume as before. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Some savings were used last year, which helped sustain consumption despite weak income growth, but the assessment is that the buffer created by the excess savings is still relatively intact (see Figure 56). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Accumulated savings are expected to develop at approximately the same pace as income this year. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The relatively high savings, combined with the lack of up-to-date microdata on how households’ savings are distributed, make it difficult to assess how households will adapt their consumption to the rising interest rates. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Resource utilisation will fall over the coming year | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
The Riksbank’s monetary policy is aimed at stabilising inflation around the inflation target and production and employment around sustainable long-term levels – that is to say, normal resource utilisation. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Resource utilisation is affected by developments in wages and prices. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
As resource utilisation cannot be measured exactly, the Riksbank assesses it based on several different data sources. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The Riksbank’s resource utilisation indicator, which is a composite of different indicators, suggests that resource utilisation has fallen and is now close to normal levels. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Even measured using the GDP gap, resource utilisation is now close to normal, while the employment gap still indicates that resource utilisation is higher than normal (see Figure 45). | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The Riksbank’s overall assessment is that resource utilisation has fallen and is close to normal at present. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
As economic activity slows further, resource utilisation is expected to fall and to be lower than normal for some time to come. | 21/09/2023 | Sep-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Inflation is falling but is still far too high. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
This affects households with small margins in particular, but has a negative impact on the whole economy. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
To ensure that inflation continues downwards and stabilises around the target within a reasonable period of time, monetary policy needs to be tightened further. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
The Executive Board has therefore decided to raise the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75 per cent. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
The Executive Board has also decided to increase the pace of the sales of government bonds from SEK 3.5 to 5 billion per month. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
In Sweden, CPIF inflation continued to fall in April and May, to a level somewhat below the Riksbank’s most recent forecast. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
One important explanation for this development is the surprisingly large falls in energy and food prices. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
However, stripped of energy prices, inflation is declining more slowly and is marginally higher than expected. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
This is mainly because service prices are increasing faster than expected, which could reflect continued high demand pressures in parts of the Swedish economy. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
The weak krona also contributes to keeping inflation up, and there is a risk that the pass-through of the Krona to price increases is greater in the current high-inflation situation. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | neutral |
Demand in the Swedish economy needs to dampen to enable inflation to fall back towards the target within a reasonable period of time. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
The policy rate is now at a level that is contractionary, which contributes to the expectation that GDP will fall somewhat going forward, at the same time as the labour market cools. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
CPIF inflation is expected to fall and to be close to the target in 2024. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | positive |
The forecast is that the policy rate will be raised at least one more time this year and after that will remain at a contractionary level for a relatively long period of time. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
However, there is still considerable uncertainty, and new information and how it is assessed to affect the economic outlook and inflation prospects will be decisive in determining the design of monetary policy. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | neutral |
Inflation is falling but is still far too high | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_title | null | 1 | null | negative |
Following the rapid upturn last year, global inflation has begun to fall back from high levels. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | positive |
Many central banks are continuing to tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down to the target. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
In Sweden, CPIF inflation continued to fall in April and May, to a level somewhat below the Riksbank’s most recent forecast. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
One important explanation for this development is the surprisingly large falls in energy and food prices. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
However, stripped of energy prices, inflation is declining more slowly and is marginally higher than expected. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
This is mainly because service prices are increasing faster than expected, which could reflect continued high demand pressures in parts of the Swedish economy. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
The weak krona also contributes to keeping inflation up, and there is a risk that the pass-through of the Krona to price increases is greater in the current high-inflation situation. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
For inflation to return to the target of 2 per cent within a reasonable period of time, the Executive Board assesses that monetary policy needs to be tightened further. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
The Executive Board has therefore decided to raise the Riksbank’s policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75 per cent. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
Moreover, the Executive Board has decided to increase the pace of the sales of government bonds from SEK 3.5 to 5 billion per month. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
The forecast is that the policy rate will be raised at least one more time this year. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
However, there is still considerable uncertainty, and new information and how it is assessed to affect the economic outlook and inflation prospects will be decisive in determining the design of monetary policy. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Inflation is falling but uncertain how quickly | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 1.1 | null | neutral |
Growth in Sweden unexpectedly high at the beginning of the year, but interest rate sensitive sectors show clear signs of weakness | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
GDP growth for the first quarter was somewhat higher than expected, at the same time as the outcomes for 2021 and 2022 were revised upwards. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
A closer examination of the National Accounts shows that developments differ considerably between different parts of the economy. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
For instance, exports and investment excluding housing are developing strongly. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
But household consumption is slowing down rapidly. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
While the demand for services such as hotel and restaurant visits has been sustained fairly well, demand for goods is falling considerably (see figure 2). | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Housing prices and housing investment, which are affected substantially by rising interest rates, have fallen quickly, although some stabilisation of housing prices can be detected during the first half of the year. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
As in many parts of the world, the labour market in Sweden has been stronger than expected. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
One possible explanation for this is that demand for staff-intensive services such as hotel and restaurant visits has been strong in the recovery from the pandemic. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
A further possible and partly related explanation is that companies are retaining their workforces to a greater degree over the business cycle. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This is probably because the difficulties in recruiting staff after the pandemic are still fresh in their memories. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The fact that real wages have fallen may also have helped strengthen the demand for labour | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Inflation is falling – but from historically high levels | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_title | null | null | null | positive |
Last year, Swedish inflation rose to levels not seen since the early 1990s – prior to the introduction of the inflation target. | 29/06/2023 | Jun-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
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