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0368a4df185a538bdd3208b8c20c68df | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/08/the-fight-for-arlen-specters-seat.html | The Fight for Arlen Specter's Seat | The Fight for Arlen Specter's Seat
A big fight is brewing in the Keystone State over Sen. Arlen Specter's Senate seat.
VIDEO0:0000:00The Fight for Specter's Seat
The two men hoping to replace Specter - Rep. Joe Sestak (D.,Penn) and former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey - duked it out on last night's show.
You can watch it all here.
Questions? Comments, send your emails to: lkudlow@kudlow.com
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7026919f4ced079dd930e13bcfbdac2b | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/08/top-technology-picks-from-a-5star-manager.html | Top Technology Picks from a 5-Star Manager | Top Technology Picks from a 5-Star Manager
Richard Parower is a portfolio manager at Seligman Global Technology Fund, which is up 50 percent this year, and a co-manager at 5-star rated Seligman Communications and Information Fund, which is up 46 percent.
VIDEO0:0000:00Investing in Tech
Offering advice to investors, Parower said it's important to avoid fads and to not be afraid to buy into stocks too early.
He credited his funds' performances to their in-depth research into new products and their direct communication with companies and resellers.
"We positioned the portfolio in areas where companies had really strong franchises, good cash flows and good earnings, and there was a really strong [return on investment] for the companies' customers to go and buy the products," he said.
Parower's Top Tech Picks:
Symantec
Open Text
Micro Focus
Tivit (Brazil)
Aspen Technology
Apple
More Market Wisdom:
Dow 10,000? Experts Call a Market TopMario Gabelli's Five-Star Stock Picks
______________________________CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
Biggest Tech BlundersPortraits of Wall St. 'Villains'
______________________________
______________________________ Disclosures:
Disclosure information was not available for Parower or his company.
Disclaimer
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556f2233e93a8d814a3429085b1bf72d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/08/uk-deals-blow-to-ticketmasterlivenation-merger.html | UK Deals Blow to Ticketmaster-LiveNation Merger | UK Deals Blow to Ticketmaster-LiveNation Merger
Concerts are the largest and most profitable revenue stream in the flagging music business and now its two most powerful players are facing a roadblock to their plan to combine.
As the Department of Justice scrutinizes Ticketmaster and LiveNation'sproposed merger here in the US overseas the UK's main antitrust regulator already decided it has some problems with the combination of the ticketing giant and the world's largest concert promoter. This morning Britain's Competition Commission provisionally ruled against the planned merger, saying it "will limit the development of competition in the market for live music ticket retailing."
Slideshow: Highest Grossing Concert Tours of 2008
Britain's Commission has a specific complaint: it's looking to protect CTS Eventim AG (XETRA: EVD.DE), a German ticketing company, and the second largest in the world after Ticketmaster. Before the merger announcement CTS signed a deal with Live Nation to partner on live music and events in the UK. Now the concern is that Live Nation, when partnered with Ticketmaster, would have every reason to keep this new player out of the UK market. The regulators certainly aren't determined to block the merger, and they offer up some potential solutions, like insisting that Live Nation use a retailer other than Ticketmaster (i.e. CTS) to handle some of its events in the UK, or that the two companies sell some of their British businesses.
This isn't as bad as it seems.
Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce points out that Live Nation and Ticketmaster entered this deal knowing that they would have to sell some of their assets, and the Commission's suggestions play right into expectations. Joyce also points out that LiveNation was going to have to pay a royalty to CTS for using its ticketing platform, so pushing Live Nation to work with CTS doesn't add any extra costs to the equation. Bottom line: nothing in this complaint is unexpected, and there’s nothing here that can't be dealt with to get the merger approved.
As the Commission finalizes its report before November 24 and the Department of Justice completes its review, the two companies are defending their merger as a much-needed shot of energy in the struggling music business. Ticketmaster rightly points out in a statement that the live music business is the driving force in the industry now that the record business has been taken down by piracy and digital distribution revenues haven't compensated for the difference. The statement reads: "We believe this merger will build a more efficient and effective company moving forward and that working together we will be able to help achieve needed change that will strengthen a flagging music industry."
Ticketmaster and Live Nation are acutely aware of concertgoers’ complaints about its service, and regularly announce services and deals to give music fans easier, cheaper access to concert tickets. Last week Ticketmaster launched "NFL Ticket Exchange," with a new way to validate ticket barcodes, to enable a secondary market for football tickets. Live Nation continues to promote "All-In" no-fee prices. My point being, the companies get the problems and they know they have to make consumers happy, especially if they're going to convince the D.O.J. to let them be the only way for consumers to get to a major concert.
I can't help but think of Sirius and XM Satellite Radio and the battle they waged with regulators to get their merger approved. They had to convince Washington that there was so much other competition out there for consumers' attention and entertainment dollars, from terrestrial radio, to iTunes , to Internet radio, that it wouldn't matter if there were only one satellite radio provider. They turned out to be right, having a monopoly hasn't insulated Sirius XM - take a look at its stock hovering around 54 cents. The live concert space is different than the radio business, or is it? These days as Sony starts putting more music events into movie theaters, will the concert companies be able to argue that they face more competition for entertainment dollars than ever? We'll see what the DOJ says.
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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f99318ac0028ee7294679b243b27206a | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/08/wells-fargo-buy-or-sell.html | Analyst showdown: Goldman Sachs called Wells Fargo a buy, placing a $35 price target on the stock, while UBS told its clients to sell, saying WFC would drop to $20. So who’s right?
Cramer sided with Goldman, and here’s why:
VIDEO0:0000:00Analyst Showdown
The crux of the problem, he found, was that the two firms disagreed on the profits that Wells Fargo could earn. UBS expects loan losses to cut into earnings power, but Goldman doubts they will hurt all the much, especially because of the returns Wells’ will generate from its deposit base. UBS predicts the bank will have trouble paying back its TARP loans, Goldman says it won’t. And UBS believes that the Wachovia acquisition will weigh Wells Fargo down, while Goldman thinks it will work out well.
For these reasons, UBS says Wells will earn just $2 a share, compared with the $4.65 that Goldman estimated. Cramer put the figure at closer to $4 than $2, citing Wells’ potential to write-up the loan losses that it had previously written down. He also thinks that the company will earn enough money to pay back its TARP loans, without needing to hold a secondary offering. And in the end, the extra earnings will strengthen the bank’s capital position. He put a mid-$30s price target on WFC, based on that $4.65 earnings power.
“I think UBS is way too negative,” Cramer said, “and will miss the next big move” in Wells Fargo.
Cramer's charitable trust owns Wells Fargo.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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aad43f7c48d92dda2e3aee294d72ff46 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/08/you-dont-need-a-realtor-to-sell-your-home.html | You Don't Need A Realtor To Sell Your Home | You Don't Need A Realtor To Sell Your Home
With prices still depressed in many parts the residential real estate market, homeowners these days are looking to eke out as much profit as they can from the sale of their home.
A sign points the way to a home for sale in Beaverton, Ore., Monday, May 22, 2006. Figures for existing home sales will be released Thursday. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)Don Ryan
Yet, with the high inventory of available properties, especially foreclosed or short sale ones, it's hard, if not impossible, to get your price.Enter: For sale by owner (FSBO).By cutting out the middle man and selling your home yourself, you could walk away with tens of thousands of dollars more in your pocket. It just takes a little marketing know-how and a lot of entrepreneurial spirit.
“A lot of people who are selling right now are doing so because they’re changing jobs or changing lifestyles and they’re selling by owner because they know it’s going to immediately save them 5-6 percent on commission costs,” says Eric Mangan, a spokesman for . “In today’s market, where prices have dropped by double digits in some cases, the cost of using a realtor is that much more expensive.”
Indeed, without a real estate agent you could lower your asking price by up to 6 percent to comparable listings in your community and help sell your house faster.Better yet, leave your price on par and pocket the commission that would normally go to the realtor. (On a $350,000 house, a 6-percent commission is $21,000.)Who's Doing ItDespite the financial incentive and growing access to online listing services, the FSBO (pronounced "fizzbo") market has been trending down from a high of 19 percent of the market in 1997 to roughly 13 percent today, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).Some 81 percent of home sellers still use full-service realtors, 9 percent rely on limited service providers, including discount brokerages and the remaining sellers, and roughly 9 percent use minimal service (including FSBOs and those who pay only for the use of an MLS).
About 45 percent of FSBO transactions involved people who already knew each other, such as family members or acquaintance.
According to NAR's Walter Molony, the majority of homeowners still rely on agents because their home is often their largest asset and they want an experienced professional on hand to protect their interests.
Indeed, some homeowners still require the help of realtors to sell their home. Among them: those who can’t be physically on site to show their property and those not comfortable selling or promoting their houses.While the real estate recession has some homeowners wary of selling solo, however, Mangan maintains the sell-by-owner strategy is actually easier than most homeowners imagine—and makes more sense today than during the boom.“It takes education about your local real estate marketing, including recent sales activity and some knowledge of what’s currently on the market,” he says. “Other little things are more important today, too, like being more flexible with a buyer’s closing time frame.”If your buyer needs to close within 30 days and you’re not ready to move, find an apartment and store your furniture. Be prepared to do whatever it takes.The housing slump, of course, also makes it more important to market your home effectively.Above all, that means listing your house for a fair price.It’s easy enough to find out what your home is worth. Sites like realtor.com, zillow.com and homegain.com can help you review comparable real estate listings available in your neighborhood.
You should also ask a realtor or two to stop by for a comparative market analysis. They don’t charge for the service, you can be honest about your intent to sell-by-owner (they’ll be waiting if it doesn’t work out) and they might even give you some good ideas on quick fixes to help you sell faster.
Once you’ve arrived at a fair market price, you can either list for that amount or, considering the growing inventory of available homes, discount your price just enough to position your property as a bargain.For example, if your home would normally list for $450,000 with a realtor, consider lowering your asking price by 3 percent to $436,500. If you’re really eager to sell, you could reduce by 4 percent and sell for $432,000, while still coming out ahead.What You May Need Even a well priced home, however, isn’t going to move if buyers don’t know it exists.Ads in the local newspaper, which cost as little as $25 per month, can be surprisingly effective, considering a large percentage of buyers across the country upgrade into homes within their existing community.But you’ll have better luck if you pony up for a listing service, which publishes the specifics of available homes to realtors and potential buyers.
Packages priced at $229 and up also include a yard sign kit, access to a consultation line and automatic syndication of the listing to the real estate sections of partner Web sites like Google, Yahoo and USAToday. Higher-priced packages, which run as high as $809, also include a listing on Realtor.com and on the MLS.”
ByOwner.com, meanwhile, charges from $300 to $400 for its listings, which will remain on the site until sold. Both companies provide yard signs, printable flyers and instructional material to help you prepare, price and negotiate the sale of your home.Screen, screen, screen
Home For Sale - Reduced PricedAP
With banks continuing to tighten their lending restrictions, it’s more important than ever to get your buyers prequalified or preapproved.As the seller, you should demand a pre-approved mortgage letter with any written offer potential buyers make.And, as with any real estate transaction, don’t forget to work with a lawyer or title company during the closing, to ensure both you and the buyer have a legal representative who understands the process and is looking out for your best interests.The DownsideBefore you set out to save a buck, of course, there are some potential disadvantages to consider.For starters, there’s the added time commitment of showing your own home. (If you’re at work, you may miss a sale.)You may also feel uncomfortable opening your home to just anyone—whereas a realtor is bringing only bona fide potential buyers to your door.
Realtors also, of course, handle all the paperwork, provide legally binding contracts that account for local disclosure ordinances and know which lender to direct your low credit score-buyers to when their financing goes sour.
Finally, because they are exposed to a wider audience of potential buyers, some would argue agents may be able to obtain a higher sales price for your home, which can offset some or all of their commission.A 2008 survey by NAR found the median price for sellers who used an agent was $211,000, while homes sold directly by the owners fetched closer to $153,000.(Molony notes, however, the significant price spread in the most recent survey was partly due to the fact that FSBO properties were more likely to be in rural areas, and more likely to be manufactured or mobile homes. That suggests the homes might be worth less to begin with, he said.)A smaller survey by Northwestern University of all homes sold in Madison, Wisc. between 1998 and 2004 found those who joined a for-sale-by-owner Web site got as least as much for their homes as sellers who either used an agent or the MLS.The study shows that FSBO sellers ended up with a "significantly enhanced net sale price because they didn’t have to pay the brokerage commission that real estate agents charge sellers, generally 6 percent of a house’s sale price," the summary report said.It did find, however, that homes sold through the MLS were more likely to sell faster—20 days faster on average. (And that was during the real estate boom.) It also found that over 20 percent of FSBO listings did not sell by owner, and ultimately had to list anew on the MLS.
The increased time to sell can be tough to swallow for homeowners who are carrying two mortgages at once.If your home sits too many extra months on the market, of course, it would have been cheaper to simply hire an agent and cough up the commission.Yet, despite the potential drawbacks, the cost benefit of selling your home on your own makes it worth considering if you can afford to wait for a buyer, are prepared to market your home effectively and aren’t afraid to do the legwork yourself.
(Editor's note: This story has been updated since first being published in March, 2009.)
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e924707292c441b820a7aedcf58ceefb | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/2years-since-the-market-highs.html | 2-Years Since the Market Highs | 2-Years Since the Market Highs
Today marks the 2-year anniversary since the S&P and Dow hit their all-time highs. The Nasdaq hit its high (not an all-time high) a few weeks later. The peaks were the culmination of an five-year bull market that began in at the end of 2002 and picked up steam in early 2003. Coincidentally, the Dow hit its 2002 low this same week in October.
Here is a look at how the indices and the VIX have faired since 10/9/07, including the best and worst performers of each index.
S&P
Closed at an all-time high of 1,565.15 on 10/9/07Hit an intraday high of 1,576.09 on 10/11/07In the past two years, the lowest close for the S&P was on 3/9/09 at 676.53, down 888.62 points or 56.8% from its closing highHit an intraday low of 666.79 on 03/06/09, down 909.30 points or 57.7% from its intraday highFrom its all-time closing high to-date (as of yesterday's close) the S&P is down 499.67 points or 31.9%Closed up 261 days (52.2%) of the last 506 trading sessions58 days with moves of 2% or greater in the past two years30 days with moves of 3% or greater in the past two years Best S&P performer since 10/9/07: Southwestern Energy, up 100% (as of yesterday's close)Worst S&P performer since 10/9/07: American Intl. Group , down 97% (as of yesterday's close)
Dow
Closed at an all-time high of 14,164.53 on 10/9/07Hit an intraday high of 14,198.10 on 10/11/07 In the past two years, the lowest close for the Dow was on 3/9/09 at 6,547.05, down 7,617.48 points or 53.8% from its closing highHit an intraday low of 6,469.95 on 03/06/09, down 7,728.15 points or 54.4% from its intraday highFrom its all-time closing high to-date (as of yesterday's close) the Dow is down 4,377.66 points or 30.9%Closed up 251 days (49.6%) of the last 506 trading sessions57 days with moves of 2% or greater in the past two years25 days with moves of 3% or greater in the past two years134 triple digit days in the past 2 years Best Dow performer since 10/9/07: Walmart, up 10% (as of yesterday's close)Worst Dow performer since 10/9/07: Bank of America, down 67% (as of yesterday's close)
NASDAQ
Closed at 2803.91 on 10/9/07Closed at a high of 2859.12 on 10/31/2007Hit an intraday high of 2861.51 on 10/31/2007Hit an intraday low of 1265.52 on 3/9/09, down 1593.6 points and 55.7% from its closing highUp 247 days (51%) of the 489 trading days since its high144 days with moves of +/- 2% or more since its high77 days with moves of +/- 3% or more since its highBest Nasdaq 100 performer since 10/9/07: Ross Stores, up 74% (as of yesterday's close)Worst Nasdaq 100 performer since 10/9/07: Electronic Arts, down 66% (as of yesterday's close)
VIX
Closed at 16.12 on 10/9/07Crossed above 20 on 10/15/07Crossed above 30 on 11/12/07Crossed above 40 on 9/18/08Closed at a high of 80.86 on 11/20/2008Hit an intraday high of 89.53 on 10/24/2008Hit an intraday low of 15.82 on 5/19/08
Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com
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2ffde4445898ed5bd370524468843049 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/6-ways-to-invest-in-health-care-reform.html | 6 Ways to Invest in Health Care Reform | 6 Ways to Invest in Health Care Reform
Worries over health care reform have caused the sector to be underowned, but there are still opportunities for investors looking to take advantage of the low prices, said Charles Boorady of Citigroup and Arthur Henderson of Jeffries & Co. (See their stock recommendations below)
VIDEO0:0000:00Reform Plans Moving Forward
More Market Intelligence:
Health Care Strategist's Big Three Trades
Options Pour Into Small-Cap Health Stock
Boorady Likes:
Henderson Likes:
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time
Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now
Where's the US Dollar Today?
CNBC Slideshows:
A History of Government Spending
A Gallery of Medical Marijuana
Disclosures:
Disclaimer
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5a62c786444b87d68fb9e03b2e28e596 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/bernankes-words-hurt-commodities.html | Bernanke's Words Hurt Commodities | Bernanke's Words Hurt Commodities
Stocks futures have weakened on the stronger dollar... due to Mr. Bernanke's comments that monetary policy could be tightened as a recovery takes hold. Those comments have sent commodity and commodity stocks like BHP Billiton, BP and Harmony Gold lower.
Global employment improving? A day after Australia reported a better than excpected employment report, Canada has done the same. Their unemployment rate unexpectedly fell a sharp .4 percent to 8.4 percent.
Slideshow: Countries with the Most Foreign Direct Investment
Talk about catchup: China's Shanghai Composite up 4.8 percent overnight...they have been on vacation, so this was the first trading day in October. China's Vice Premier said they would continue their stimulus program and loose monetary policy. Stocks like Taiwan Semi up on heavy pre-open volume.
Elsewhere:
1) Chevron Corp. said its third-quarter earnings will be higher than the previous quarter, boosted by higher oil prices and gains from asset sales. This is hardly a surprise, since first and second quarter earnings were the lowest in years. Q2 earnings came in at $0.87; analyst consensus for the current quarter is $1.39.
2) Marriott: who's right? Interesting divergence of opinion a day after Marriott reported better earnings. Two firms downgrade, one upgrades.
a) Susquehanna downgrades: "While Marriott is doing as good a job as could possibly be expected given the immense challenges facing the lodging industry, we simply believe the recent run in the stock has priced in more of a recovery than we think the industry is capable of producing over the next few years."
b) Soleil also downgraded "as the market digests the fact that a lodging recovery is likely to lag the broader economy given the tradionally slower rebound in corporate-group business."
c) But BofA/Merrill upgrades, saying "all of MAR's earnings drivers are likely headed higher driven by strong unit growth."
_____________________________
The Dow 30 in Real TimeThe CNBC Stock Blog
_____________________________
Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com
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0561d6d8d6d6a606a4f26f671dce1029 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/burned-by-ford-schlumberger-more.html | They looked like hot stocks. So how are the traders playing Ford, Schlumberger and more now that they’ve been burned.
Joe Terranova
On September 23rd the Liquidator thought Ford was a stock with plenty of acceleration potential. “The international story for Ford is phenomenal, but also look domestically,” he said. “CEO Alan Mulally, he has just done a phenomenal job navigating through this crisis. This is the time to step in and buy again.”Unfortunately this trade just kind of sputtered out. Since Terranova turned bullish shares have run out of gas. So, what does he have to say about Ford now?"I'm so disappointed," he says. "I still like the play but considering the downtrend it's got to break above $7.60, a point of resistance, before you can get long."
Guy Adami
On October 1st the Negotiator thought oil services firm Schlumberger was hardly a stock worth gushing about. “You might want to get Schlumberger short here,” he said. “I’m looking for 52.50.”
As it turns out getting short left Adami holding the short end of the stick. Since he made the call for this stock to go down, Schlumberger has climbed well above $60. So, what does he have to say about this trade now?I was wrong on my timing but I still think you can get short, he says, with a stop at $63.89.
Karen Finerman
On October 1st the Chairwoman just couldn’t justify buying a high priced specialty retailer. “Although JCrew is down 6% I just think its still too rich,” she said. “I think they still have more to go. It’s still too expensive.”As it turns out this stock was cheap. Since her suggestion to sell, shares have climbed higher. So what does Finerman have to say about this trade now?I still think the valuations are crazy but I can't deny that I got it wrong, she says.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Fire
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your e-mail to .Trader disclosure: On Oct. 9th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (M), (MSFT), (DRI); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (TLT); Terranova Owns (JPM), (MOS), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN), (CCL); Terranova Owns December 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns December 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (F), (INFY), (RTP)
For Joe TerranovaVirtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
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ba586b53aa2b9b8a3485f3b4086efa5c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/busch-what-what-theres-a-us-dollar-crisis.html | Busch: What, What, There's a US Dollar Crisis? | Busch: What, What, There's a US Dollar Crisis?
The WSJ has a front pager and an
editorial on the pathetic state of the US
dollar. Both are excellent reviews of what we have been
experiencing in currency land since Obama took office.
On the front page, they blare, "
US Stands By
as Dollar Falls" and state the argument for a
weaker dollar. "For now, a weaker dollar tends to help
U.S. exports, by making them cheaper abroad, a welcome
development at a moment of domestic economic weakness.
Cheaper U.S. goods overseas could help achieve the
long-sought "rebalancing" of the global economy where the
U.S. exports more, and others, including China, import more.
The rebalancing "is a healthy, necessary transition," Mr.
Geithner said last month."
Unfortunately when the US dollar weakens, the
Chinese currency comes along for the ride. This means
the trade imbalance between China and the United States will
never correct unless the US simply stops buying Chinese
goods. At the minimum in a US dollar devaluation, the
relative value of Chinese goods will remain the same to US
consumers. At the maximum, US consumers will turn more
to Chinese goods as these good relative value to other
countries will be cheaper. Should the US dollar
continue to weaken, we might see our trade deficit with China
go up and our deficit with the rest of the world going
down.
Oh wait, this is already happening! The U.S.
trade deficit with China shrank a tiny amount in August (to
$20.23 billion from $20.42 billion). However, the U.S.
trade with the euro area dropped to $4.32 billion from $6.72
billion and the deficit with Canada fell to $1.51 billion
from $2.09 billion.
World’s Most Beautiful Currencies
According to Richard Fisher, president of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Foreign exchange markets are
manic-depressive mechanisms just like every other market I've
ever operated in. You have to be careful not to read too much
into short-term movements. If we get it right, meaning
if we get our economy back up and we don't do it with any
risk to price stability on the downside or the upside, then I
think the dollar will be fine." Since the US dollar
index has been declining since mid-2002, one wonders what
Fisher's medium term time frame encompasses? The Civil
War?
This year, the greenback is sinking quickly (-15% US
dollar index from March) under twin burdens of the Federal
Reserve's QE program and the Obama administration's fiscal
policies. It should not be a surprise to anyone that
our major trading partners and major US dollar reserve
holders are expressing dismay and concern over these
policies. It should not be a surprise that they are
attempting to do something about it via verbal warnings to
the US over competitive devaluations and by discussing
alternative reserve currencies.
It would be a major surprise if anyone in the US
government did anything about it.
CNBC.com
Guest Blogs - Where The Experts Weigh in on Money &
Markets
________________________
v align="left">
Andrew B.
Busch is Global FX Strategist at BMO Capital
Markets, a recognized expert on the world financial
markets and how these markets are impacted by political
events, and a frequent CNBC contributor. You can comment
on his piece and and you can follow him on Twitter at .
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3c5df842822d98d75576f102cdf04b71 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/buy-sports-tickets-now-for-the-next-50-years.html | Buy Sports Tickets Now For The Next 50 Years? | Buy Sports Tickets Now For The Next 50 Years?
A company called Stadium Capital Financing Group is working with sports teams to sell tickets for the future - as in decades.
VIDEO0:0000:00Tickets for Life
Fans can now buy tickets well into the future, something that appeals to teams because it provides them with financing without the debt.
You can watch my interview here with Stadium Capital Financing Group CEO Lou Weisbach.
Questions? Comments? SportsBiz@cnbc.com
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f3fe0b7112b7608e5812143e0c1c6a64 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/buy-these-big-caps-before-fed-hikes-rates-chief-investor.html | Buy These Big Caps Before Fed Hikes Rates: Chief Investor | Buy These Big Caps Before Fed Hikes Rates: Chief Investor
The global recovery is being led by countries outside of the United States, and investors should look to multinational corporations to protect themselves against the weakening dollar, said David Darst, managing director and chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. (See his stock picks below.)
VIDEO0:0000:00Breaking Down the Markets
But Richard Peterson, director at Standard & Poor's, said it will be difficult to play out the recovery, which relies on policies in Washington, how the Federal Reserve acts on raising interest rates, and an uncertain consumer.
"It'll be hard to tell what will happen in the next few weeks, let alone in two years," Peterson said. "There is a recovery brewing, but the question is what is the magnitude and the strength of that recovery."
More Market Intelligence:
Don't Miss 'Bigger Than Normal Bounce': Barton BiggsStock Pickers' Portfolio Prep for Next Week
Pointing to growing stability overseas — specifically Australia's decision to raise interest rates — Darst said multinational companies that generate revenue from foreign currency are a safe bet.
The raised interest rates are "showing quickening economic activity outside the United States, and these big multinationals give you exposure to that," he said.
Before the Fed raises rates, Darst recommends industrials and hardware technology, adding that health care is an "under-owned, under-loved" sector. Once rates have been raised, however, he said investors should buy into the food and beverage and tobacco sectors.
"When you get the 12 months before the Fed raises rates, that's the sweet spot that we're in," Darst said.
Darst Likes:
IBM
Microsoft
Johnson & Johnson
General Electric
SPDR DB International Government Inflation Protected Bond ETF — This ETF protects against unexpected inflation in 17 countries, including the United Kingdom, Australia and Canada.
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Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
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The S&P 500's Leanest CompaniesTwenty Stocks Ready to Pop
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______________________________ Disclosures:
Disclosure information was not available for Darst, Peterson or their companies.
Disclaimer
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070e2fe52b0f6359ecd9597b3f274a1d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/californias-red-ink-still-getting-redder.html | California's Red Ink Still Getting Redder | California's Red Ink Still Getting Redder
California's finances are in worse shape than expected three months into the fiscal year. State Controller John Chiang says income is nearly $1.1 billion below the most recent budget estimates.
Golden Gate BridgePhoto by: Thierry
"While there are encouraging signs that California's economy is preparing for a comeback," Chiang says, "the recession continues to drag state revenues down."
Controller Chiang says September revenues missed in all three major categories.
When adjusted for repayments of IOUs issued last summer, personal income tax revenues were $923 million below estimates (-17.3 percent), corporate taxes missed by $183 million (-10.5 percent), while sales taxes came in nearly $100 million below expectations (-4.5 percent).
California started the fiscal year July 1 with a nearly $12 billion cash deficit which grew to over $16 billion by the end of September. The deficits are being covered by internal borrowing and by selling short term notes in the market.
The news comes the same week California failed to sell all of a $4.5 billion general obligation bond offering.
"I urge lawmakers and the Governor to prepare for more difficult decisions ahead," Chiang said.
Worst Expected State Budget Gaps
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225b3bf68cda01ce54bb15049a487d0c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/call-of-shame.html | Call Of Shame | Call Of Shame
Call of ShameCNBC.com
I think you're going to have a pretty tough time deciding who deserves to be named Worst of the Worst this week in the realm of business, finance, and money.
Here are our nominees for this week's Call of Shame.
Vote at the bottom for a winner...er, loser.
PIG IN A BLANKET
David Letterman spent the week doing more damage to himself and CBS. I probably should have had him on last week's list, but this week he kicked it up a notch by apologizing on air to his wife for being a pig and bedding staff members-a story that gets seedier every day. Producer Robert Joe Halderman, accused of extorting $2 million from the late night talk show host, remains under the presumption of innocence, but Letterman has openly admitted his guilt as a sleazebag. The National Enquirer says a potential $300 million divorce battle is in the works. The Enquirer is sometimes right, but even if the story is wrong, Letterman will have hell to pay.
SON OF A ...
For those of you who aren't rich and sadly wish you had more to leave your kids, be happy your children have to make their own way in the world. This week Brooke Astor's son, Anthony Marshall, was convicted of tricking his ailing motherinto changing her will to leave him $200 million. Marshall is guilty of taking advantage of his mother's Alzheimer's to get her to sign everything over to him. His conviction could bring him 25 years in prison which, for an 85-year-old man, is a life sentence.
LENDING A HAND TO CRIME
On the other end of the wealth curve, we have the Kuzelkas or Lake Elsinore, California. Benjamin Kuzelka showed up at a Southern California emergency room this week with part of his hand blown off, claiming it was the result of a gun accident. Um, no. Actually, police believe he blew off part of his hand while mixing explosives at the home he shares with his mother and brother...the same home where they were allegedly growing marijuana AND HAD A LICENSED CHILD CARE CENTER. Talk about diversifying! Entrepreneurs! All three are now facing a variety of charges. Fortunately, no kids were in the house at the time of the explosion.
CHARLIE'S ANGLES
How do you explain away forgetting hundreds of thousands of dollars of net worth? It takes agility, the ability to look at all the angles. The House Ethics Committee is expanding an investigation into Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY), who allegedly failed to report up to $500,000 he had in a Merrill Lynch account, up to $100,000 in rent from a multifamily rental property he owns, as well as tens of thousands of dollars in municipal bonds. Rangel's attorneys have blamed the lapses on sloppy bookkeeping, but if he can get sloppy with hundreds of thousands of dollars, what amount of money does it take to get his attention?
GO BEFORE YOU GO
All Nippon Airways wants full flights and empty bladders. The Japanese airliner is asking passengers to go to the bathroom before they board the aircraft to -I'm not kidding- reduce their carbon footprint. The theory is that if you evacuate yourself before boarding, you weigh less, and, therefore, the airplane uses less fuel. Less gas inside of you before takeoff means less greenhouse gas emitted from the aircraft. The airline says that if everyone on a full 777 flight goes before they go, it would reduce the weight of the plane by the weigh by 544 pounds! WHAT? That's more than two pounds per passenger. What are you people eating? I think they really want you to go at the airport so they can use less toilet paper and water on planes.
HE LIED?
Finally, Nicholas Cosmo is accused to robbing investors of more than $400 million in a Ponzi scheme, but he may have his bail revoked and be forced to await his trial behind bars. According to Newsday, Cosmo has been allowed to await trial under home detention at his parent's house. But he's violated several conditions of bail, including using a computer, asking his girlfriend to get on the internet for him, and lying to his federal Pretrial Services officer about what he was doing on the computer. He lied? Really? Wow, I'm shocked.
Questions? Comments? Funny Stories? Email
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0f25cabef505975353f52fb6ea27aba5 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/century-aluminum-end-of-the-alcoa-ride.html | Century Aluminum: End of the Alcoa Ride? | Century Aluminum: End of the Alcoa Ride?
Shares of Century Aluminum are up 1,000 percent from their March lows, but at least one trader is looking for the stock to give some of that back.
CENX tacked on 11.5 percent yesterday to close at $10.76, following Alcoa's surge from its positive earnings surprise. That price is roughly 30 percent higher than just a week ago but remains below the August and September highs above $12.
OptionMonster's real-time systems show that more than 20,000 of the January 7.50 puts were bought, the largest block of 17,599 going for $0.60. Open interest at the strike was just 1,730 contracts, so the trade was clearly opening new positions.
A large block of CENX stock traded at roughly the same time, so this could have been a directionally neutral trade based on the belief that volatility will increase.
Options Tips from Jon NajarianRead The CNBC Stock BlogOptions Tips from Pete Najarian
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Chris McKhann is an analyst and writer for .
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613e8dc4cd5f14a6f86062d806eecde7 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/charting-the-market.html | Charting The Market | Charting The Market
Kotick Tick By TickCNBC.com
It's our weekly technical read of the markets with Jordan Kotick, Global Head of Technical Analysis in Kotick's Tick-By-Tick.
Q - You just got back from spending the week in the Middle East. What is the feel out there?
A - Overall, I thought the sentiment was somewhat apathetic. Middle Eastern equity markets have not been stellar performers. Further, energy/crude has remained subdued for a little while now. Overall, it seems that the region is confident in the long term direction of energy and markets in general and while not aggressively bearish, seem much more disinterested in global equity fluctuations than other parts of the world.
Q - Any specific reason for that do you think?
A - The relative underperformance of the Middle Eastern stock markets against other global equity markets has certainly played a part in keeping market interest subdued. However, we believe this is going to change. While still lagging, the Tadawul All Share Index (Saudi Arabia), DSM Index (Qatar), ADX General Index (Abu Dhabi) and Hermes Financial Index (Egypt) just to name a few, are in various stages of breaking to the topside. Since markets lead, we would expect sentiment and general market interest to begin growing again. The lag between an equity move and a general change in sentiment can often take 3-6 months.
Q - What other market are they focused on?
A - As a rule, the Dollar, Energy of course and as always, Gold. The break higher in the yellow metal this week received just as much attention there as it did in other parts of the world.
Slideshow - The World's Biggest Gold Reserves
Q - You have been calling for higher gold and silver on Kotick Tick by Tick for a few months now. Is this what you expected, do you think it is finished?
A - We have been long time bulls on gold and see no reason to alter that view. So far, the Gold move has been mainly a Dollar related move since Gold has been going up most aggressively in Dollar terms, less so when measured against the Euro, Swiss Franc and especially Japanese Yen. But we eventually expect this to become a pure Gold play as gold increases in value in all currency terms.
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The Dow 30 in Real TimeThe CNBC Stock Blog
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Questions? Comments? Write toinvestoragenda@cnbc.com
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2894de3536e2294fccbaf9acc750eb59 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/chinas-world-media-summit.html | China's World Media Summit | China's World Media Summit
The World Media Summitis underway in Beijing, where media companies from around the world are tackling how to protect their intellectual property and enter what promises to be a massive new market in China. The bottom line: media moguls from the West want to ensure that they generate revenue from digital distribution of their content, a message that seems particularly pointed against the backdrop of China, which is known for its rampant piracy.
President Hu Jintao said in a speech to the conference that Beijing would protect the rights of international news organizations reporting in China. Hu Jintao said that foreign coverage has had an "important role" in informing the world about changes in his country and promoting peace. The last comment is a bit odd considering that the communist government still restricts coverage of human rights and other controversial topics. He told the representatives of more than 170 media outlets: "we will continue to make government affairs public, enhance information distribution, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of foreign news organizations and reporters and facilitate foreign media coverage of China in accordance with China's laws and regulations." (I suppose that raises the question of whether China's laws about transparency do cover topics like human rights.)
Some Safe Bets in China, South Korea and India
Rupert Murdoch, CEO of News Corp (NWS) kicked off the media summit with an exhortation for the Chinese government to protect intellectual property and enable media competition. (China is notoriously the most difficult market for everyone from the movie studios to the TV networks to distribute content; the government maintains tight limits on just how much foreign content can be released. Even partnering with government owned companies to access the local market could be a nightmare.) Murdoch pressed an issue he's been championing of late, actually CHARGING for content instead of relying on advertising revenue. He's planning to roll out subscription models across the company's news businesses, building on the success of The Wall Street Journal's subscription business.
Here's a powerful quote from Murdoch's speech, banging the charge-for-content drum, and laying down the law for aggregators like Google : "The aggregators and the plagiarists will soon have to pay a price for the co-opting of our content. If we do not take advantage of the current movement toward paid-for content, it will be the content creators, the people in this hall, who will pay the ultimate price and the content kleptomaniacs will triumph." "Content kleptomaniacs" - quite the catchy phrase.
Read Murdoch's Speech at the World Media Summit World Media
The CEO of the Associated Press, Tom Curley, also weighed in, accusing sites like Wikipedia, YouTube and Facebook of them of diverting revenue from content creators rather than curating content and driving traffic. This was a issue that the AP had previously had with Google News. The Associated Press now licenses stories and photos to heavily-trafficked sites like Google, Yahoo and MSN , but Curley is right that those links, headlines and news summaries are often posted elsewhere, where the company may not ever see a penny of revenue. That's precisely why the AP is planning to roll out a system (calling it a "news registry") to track its online content and monazite unlicensed uses. The AP, which is a non-profit co-op estimates that unauthorized use of material costs tens of millions of dollars. That's one reason its revenue is projected to be about $700 million this year, down nearly $50 million from last year. Another factor driving down revenue is the association's reduction in fees, thanks to its member companies lower ad revenue.
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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d9a3a96985a500c2a697b86dca1f507f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/cramer-on-citigroup.html | Citigroup will beat analyst expectations when it reports earnings next week, Cramer said during Friday’s Stop Trading!.
The company’s book value is just $5.65 a share, Cramer said, so an increase in profits would boost that figure and push up the share price “over time.”
15 Rules for Playing Defense
Citigroup continued its dance for Washington on Friday by selling Phibro, its commodities trading division, to Occidental Petroleum. The move was another attempt to appease the government, which took issue with $100 million in 2009 compensation paid to one of the unit’s traders.
“All these guys do is try to make the regulators happy,” Cramer said.
VIDEO0:0000:00Stop Trading!
“The government should be selling the stake,” Cramer continued, pointing to Washington’s 34% ownership of Citi. “They’re profitable.”
Cramer also criticized Liz Claiborne’s new exclusive deal with J.C. Penney, saying the agreement will stem losses but hurts growth over the long term.
“I would be a seller of Liz,” Cramer said.
Lastly, Cramer offered some advice to Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak. The CEO and managing director of Mubadala, Abu Dhabi's major sovereign wealth fund, appeared on "Street Signs" today and discussed where his fund would invest its money. The Mad Money host recommended the fund create a holding company and buy up failing banks.
“I think it’s the best strategy on earth right now,” Cramer said.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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5d0962580515957f2895e2c6eeb032ab | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/cramers-tech-specs-novellus-systems.html | Semiconductor spending is ramping up, as Chinese demand and the mobile Internet’s continued growth drive chip sales. Now flush with cash, the chipmakers will look to buy more equipment to increase their output. It’s a classic industry cycle, Cramer said Friday, and he found a tech spec to play it.
15 Rules for Playing Defense
“I think Novellus, even though it’s nearly at its 52-week high,” Cramer said, “is a buy, buy, buy.”
How can he be so sure? Partly because Applied Materials , the biggest semi-equipment company, caught an upgrade this week on order increases, cost cuts and market-share gains. That means Novellus “must be in great shape, too,” Cramer said.
The company provides two important kinds of equipment: one called Electrochemical Disposition, which puts copper on an integrated chip to enable current conduction; and another called Plasma-Enhanced Chemical Vapor Disposition, used to place insulating and conductive films on silicon wafers. With the memory market using more and more copper interconnects, sales of this equipment should increase.
And capital expenditures are picking up across the industry. Samsung, a Novellus client, is boosting its cap ex 50% to $5.4 billion. Novellus itself expects a 40% to 55% bookings increase in the third quarter.
Novellus played it smart during the downturn as well. The company cut costs, and employees, ahead of the dip, helping it to weather the storm. Now Novellus is in good position to take share from Applied Materials, which is pushing through a reorganization.
Cramer said Novellus also makes for a great takeover target. The company’s sitting on $587 million in cash, or about 25% of the $21 share price. And the balance sheets carries only $111 million in debt. Who’s the most likely suitor? Tokyo Electron, a company with which Novellus already has a key partnership.
Investors should keep in mind that when the semiconductor-equipment cycle hits, it hits fast. So Novellus may look expensive, trading at 26 times 2010 earnings, but that multiple will drop once the orders pick up. You might want to buy in on Monday, Cramer said, because Intel could announce an increase in cap ex when it reports earnings on Tuesday.
“And that means investors will take Novellus up big,” Cramer said, “as soon as they hear it.”
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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91cea4612b28b04e8092657b8d3c28bf | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/crescenzi-investing-todaymore-practical-and-thoughtful.html | Crescenzi: Investing Today-More Practical and Thoughtful | Crescenzi: Investing Today-More Practical and Thoughtful
The all-time closing high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average was reached two years ago today at 14,165.53. While we remember it well, the memory is more likely to fade between now and the lengthy period of time it will probably take to return to that level. Structural changes to the economy, a shift in risk attitudes across entities, and demographics that favor ownership of less-risky asset classes mean that any move back to the all-time high will more likely be a grind than a leap.
NYSE traders.Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
This is hardly a challenged prognostication given all that has happened in recent years and in light of the fact that investors have shown for nearly a decade that their days of irrational exuberance are over.
In its place is a more practical and thoughtful style of investing, one that fits both the times and the needs of individual investors. This means that households will be more long-term minded than they’ve been the past quarter-century and they will avoid casino-style investing and the many pitfalls that go with it. Investors will do this by placing greater emphasis on both the secular forces that shape economies and markets, and on personal financial goals.
Since 2000, Households Have Steered Clear of Equities
When the stock market peaked two years ago, the household sector had less to celebrate than it did in 2000 when stock prices saw their last major peak. Households in-between the two peaks had learned lessons that generations of investors had learned since Tulip Mania in the 1630s. Investors realized after the financial bubble burst in 2000 that investing a large portion of one's assets in one asset class was not wise, especially after having done so with little regard to long-term fundamentals. Data to support this claim are plentiful, and they show that investors on the aggregate have matured, both literally and figuratively. Specifically, data from the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report show that since the financial bubble burst in 2000, households have shrunk their stock holdings as a percentage of their financial assets. In addition, households have become a far smaller share of the total value of equities outstanding.
Slideshow - 20 Stocks with the Potential to Pop
To be more precise, data from the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds statistics indicate that at the end of 1999, the household sector directly held $10.050 trillion of corporate equities, or 51.7% of the total market value of stocks. When the bubble burst, the household sector fled, such that two years later the tally was down to 43.6%. In 2004, the figure fell to 39.5% and the tally has not gone back above 40% since then, hovering around 37% the past three years and at the end of the first half of this year.
The Crisis: 1 Year Later - A CNBC Special Report - See Complete Coverage
As a share of the household sector’s financial assets, equities are also playing a smaller role. In 1999, 20.3% of the household sector’s $34.5 trillion of assets were directly held in corporate equities. Two years later the tally was down to 13.5%. At the end of the first half of this year it was down to 9.3%.
Icahn: Risk of Double Dip, Investor 'Bloodbath'
These data clearly show a more conservative style of investing, which was evident in the decline in the price-to-earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor’s 500. It steadily declined after the financial bubble burst, to between 15.0 and 17.0 in the several years leading up to the recent financial crisis, from the upper 20s in the years before the financial bubble burst. Irrational exuberance moved from the equity market to the housing market, it seems.
The idea that households will invest more conservatively in the years ahead is strongly supported by the above and by the fact that the U.S. population is aging. On my first point, I ask rhetorically: doesn’t it seem likely that if households because of the shock they received in 2000 stayed nimble about investing in equities (even as equities rallied into 2007) that they will remain nimble following recent events? Moreover, won’t the aging of the U.S. population play a role in keeping it this way? Aging Baby Boomers certainly seem likely to be more conservative about their investment approach and construct a portfolio that is both diversified and one that contains fewer risky assets than in years past.
None of this is to say that equities won't rise in price; they probably will--as usual, in-line with the growth rate in corporate profits, which in the first half of 2009 was 10%. Cost-cutting was the driving force behind the earnings gain, and such could drive earnings for a bit longer, which leads to a question of sustainability. Ultimately there need be a handoff from inventory- and fiscal-led stimulus to more sustainable sources of demand. Gains in equities and other risk assets can through endogenous forces provide a spark and ignite more sustainable sources of demand, but the winds working to prevent the fire from catching on remain formidable.
More: Click for Latest Economic coverage ...
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Tony Crescenzi
Tony Crescenzi is Senior VP, Strategist, Portfolio Manager Pimco. Crescenzi makes regular appearances on financial television stations such as CNBC and Bloomberg, and is frequently quoted across the news media. He is also the author of "Investing from the Top Down," "The Strategic Bond Investor," and co-author of the 1200-page book "The Money Market."
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9a2ace854b2228b02360559f771e5526 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/dow-hits-new-high-for-the-year.html | The Dow closed at a 52-week high on Friday now less than 200 points away from the psychologically important 10,000 level. Investors are wondering if bank earnings coming out next week will provide enough tailwind to push the market across this important threshold.What’s the play?
Instead of the Dow, I'm watching the S&P 500, explains Joe Terranova. The market is looking at 1075. If we get through that important level the question becomes -- will it run to 1120, which is the next important technical level?
VIDEO0:0000:00Word on the Street
The next couple days will be interesting, muses Tim Seymour. Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market is closed. Personally, I don’t see a catalyst for the market until Wednesday earnings from JPMorgan .
The Vix is flirting with the bottom of where it’s traded all years, says Karen Finerman. I think it’s time to get long volatility just because it’s cheap. It’s a good way to hedge your portfolio.
If you’re looking for a trade I’d look at Cisco , says Guy Adami. I think the stock has broken out. And my instincts tell me they’re about to make an big acquisitions.
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CHIP NAMES CLIMBING HIGHER
Investors snapped up technology shares on Friday after Baird upgraded RIM to "outperform" from "neutral," saying upcoming device launches could be a positive catalyst and the current stock price was attractive.
Also, the SMH made gains after Deutsche raised it’s chip industry forecast and UBS said Intel’s Q3 sales could top outlook.
What’s the trade?
In tech, I’d look at Cree , counsels Guy Adami, and NTAP. Those are stocks that are still working.
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STORY OF THE WEEK: GOLD’S RECORD BREAKING WEEK
Gold futures took a breather on Friday after a dollar bounce prompted pre-weekend profit-taking. The slight move lower follows this week's sharp rally to a record high above $1,060 an ounce.
What’s the trade?I didn’t like the way gold reacted at $1050, says Joe Terranova. I reduced my position in gold, he adds, so I could put money to work in crude oil which I think may be the better play right now.
In the space I’d look at Freeport McMoRan, says Guy Adami. It feels like it’s breaking higher. And in energy I also like Apache as a momentum play.
Some of the copper miners look expensive to me, says Tim Seymour. I’m concerned about PCU . This stock is not cheap.-----------
TOPPING THE TAPE: RESOURCES AND THE DOLLAR
Natural resource stocks jumped this week buoyed by a belief that recovery is underway.
However the price action stalled on Friday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that monetary policy might have to be tightened as a recovery takes hold, sending the dollar higher.
The greenback’s decline, which culminated in a 14-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, has been one the major underpinnings of the commodities rally.
What must you know?I think Bernnake is sending a message telling the market that when it’s necessary he’s not afraid to pull the trigger and raise rates, says Karen Finerman.I think that’s a total overreaction, counters Tim Seymour. I see no reason why interest rates change in the foreseeable future.
As unemployment continues to rise I see no way that the Fed can raise rates, echoes Joe Terranova. For me the trade is shortAlcoa , says Guy Adami, with a tight stop. The P/E here just doesn't make sense to me.
-----------YIELDS SPIKE TO END WEEK
U.S. Treasury debt prices sank on Friday after the Federal Reserve said it would not let its current easy money policy get out of hand, raising fears it was closer to hiking interest rates than previously thought.
The Fed's zero interest rate policy has helped drive the dollar to 14-month lows, and a lackluster long-bond auction on Thursday reminded officials that with a weak currency, foreign appetite for U.S. assets has limits.
Bernanke said the U.S. central bank must continue to prop up the economy for an extended period but cannot do so indefinitely for fear of triggering an inflationary surge.
His words reverberated through debt markets, sending benchmark yields to two-week highs.
What’s the play?
I’m short the TLT, reveals Karen Finerman, which is short the long-end of the Treasury curve.
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .
Trader disclosure: On Oct. 9th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (M), (MSFT), (DRI); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (TLT); Terranova Owns (JPM), (MOS), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN), (CCL); Terranova Owns December 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns December 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (F), (INFY), (RTP)
For Joe TerranovaVirtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)CNBC.com with wires
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7f2f65b3b2f2e7ca551c6ced5517e5a1 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/drug-deal-offers-big-bennies-to-this-biz.html | Warner Chilcott has jumped 47% since announcing it would buy Procter & Gamble’s drug division, and for a mere $3.1 billion at that. There’s still “a ton of upside” to be had, though, Cramer said. So late-to-game investors haven’t missed the move.
15 Rules for Playing Defense
How does he know? Because Chattem , maker of the Icy Hot, Gold Bond and Selsun Blue products, followed a “strikingly similar” track to Warner Chilcott , Cramer said, “and I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock mirrors Chattem’s performance.”
Chattem virtually stole five brands from Johnson & Johnson at the behest of antitrust regulators when J&J was buying Pfizer’s consumer health-care business. A month later Chattem shares were up 30%, they reached 50% higher after three months, and now, after three years, the stock is up 91%. The S&P 500 is down 21% over that latter time period.
Cramer likes the fundamentals of the Warner Chilcott-Procter & Gamble deal, too, though. Procter’s selling because it’s in the middle of a restructuring, leaving the company no choice but to sell off its pharmaceuticals business. As a result, Warner gets a stable of impressive drugs and a strong pipeline, which are expected to add $1.55 a share to the company’s 2010 earnings. That alone is almost double 2009’s $1.66 a-share expectation.
Warner Chilcott trades at just 11.6 times 2011 earnings, which is cheap considering the company’s earnings are expected to grow 22% from 2010 to 2011. And that’s without including the benefits of the Procter deal. When that happens, Warner “will immediately become the fastest-growing drug company I follow,” Cramer said, “which means people will pay up big for its earnings.”
Cramer recommended getting in WCRX before the agreement with Procter closes on Nov. 1. Eight of the nine analysts covering the stock already rate it a buy, and he assumes that others will pile in soon enough.
“The more attention Warner Chilcott gets from the Street,” Cramer said, “the higher it should go.”
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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5d23efa2e887fb2e621935141f332c63 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/fast-action-jpmorgan-goldman-other-financials.html | The Financials ETF traded higher on Friday ahead of next week’s earnings reports from some of the nation’s biggest banks.
Positive sentiment stemmed from Raymond James, which began coverage of JPMorgan with a "strong buy", saying the bank is poised to benefit from acquisitions, organic growth and market share gains.Earlier in the week Goldman Sachs also made a bullish call -- they raised their rating on big banks to "attractive" from "neutral" citing a dramatic improvement in earnigns power.Considering we're about to be deluged with big bank earnings reports, what's the trade?
Financial Earnings Next Week:
Wednesday: JPMorganThursday: Citigroup, Goldman SachsFriday: Bank of America
Strategy Session with the Fast Money traders
I bought some October calls in Bank of America, reveals Karen Finerman. I like seeing earnings from JPM and Citi before my trade fires.I’m bullish JPMorgan, adds Joe Terranova. That’s a stock I like for the long-term.I’m very bearish on Citi, adds Tim Seymour, because they had to sell Phibro one of their best units.
I'm watching trends in the XLF as a proxy for the sector, says Bill Strazzullo on Fast Money's Halftime Report. It seems to me this ETF is breaking higher and that suggests there’s good upside here in this space.
I’m watching Goldman, adds Steve Grasso. Typically they shock investors with the amount of money they make and how they make it.I’m seeing put buying in the sector, reveals Scott Nations. But that’s because it’s a bifurcated market. Some of the names are fantastic and other such as Wells and Citi just can’t seem to get any traction.Mike Khouw of Cantor Fitzgerald has some thoughts about how to trade the financials using options. Curious? Watch the video now!
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .
Trader disclosure: On Oct. 9th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (M), (MSFT), (DRI); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (TLT); Terranova Owns (JPM), (MOS), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN), (CCL); Terranova Owns December 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns December 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (F), (INFY), (RTP)
For Joe TerranovaVirtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)CNBC.com with wires
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ee6505c4a0f7b7fc3d793ebc3ad940d2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/first-on-fast-inside-hps-transformation.html | Over the past 3 months shares of Hewlett-Packard have surged 30%. And the stock has been on a tear for most of the year.Of course if you watch Fast Money all the time you knew that, already. Long H-P is a trade Guy Adami has been all over for months.But five years ago, you would have been hard pressed to find this stock attractive. At the time H-P was in shambles. Former CEO Carly Fiorina had just been forced out and the company was struggling to digest its acquisition of Compaq.
But five years later it's a very different story. Today H-P is one of the most successful IT companies in the world. Revenue for the fiscal year starting Nov. 1 will likely total between $117 billion and $118 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. "H-P's best days are ahead of it, not behind it," says CEO Mark Hurd
Hurd is probably a name you know – he’s very much the face of the company. But he has a secret weapon in the guise of Todd Bradley, an executive VP – who is largely responsible for Hewlett-Packard becoming the world's leading seller of PCs, edging out longtime rival Dell In the PC segment, Bradley "has been able to do some incredible things with a division that most people thought, before he came on board, couldn't be fixed," says veteran tech analyst Rob Enderle. "He appears to be on a fast track."
In fact he’s lately been called the most likely insider to succeed Hurd one day, writes The Mercury News.
VIDEO0:0000:00Inside HP's Transformation
And on Friday Bradley talked with CNBC’s Jim Goldman about a brand new alliance with Beats Electronics and his plans to introduce a special music oriented entertainment laptop. "It's a continuation on our focus of making computers personal," says Bradley. "This notebook will have the finest music reproduction in the world and give people the best audio output in the marketplace." The new item will cost about $2200.We also talked with Bradley about his outlook for the rest of the year."We're cautiously optimistic about the holiday season," Bradley tells us. "Clearly Windows 7 will be a driver and I think it will be one of many things that inspires people to buy PC's for the holidays."
What’s the trade?I like H-P, says Guy Adami. It’s not a fast money trade but I like it as a slow and steady growth stock for the portfolio.I agree entirely, echoes Joe Terranova. This stock could very well surprise you.Check out our entire interview with Bradley. Watch the video above.
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your e-mail to .
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c1516c279890acbb794fb8de23f37fa2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/how-do-iphone-game-companies-make-money.html | How Do iPhone Game Companies Make Money? | How Do iPhone Game Companies Make Money?
If you’ve got an iPhone, there’s a pretty good chance you’ve heard of Tapulous.
tapulous
The company’s games — “Tap Tap Revenge” and its many spin-offs — have had over 15 million downloads, with over 11 million unique users and over 500 million games played. That’s pretty impressive for a company that’s only 16-months old.
All totaled, there are 12 titles in the company’s hit series, which borrows heavily from Activision’s “Guitar Hero” franchise and EA’s “Rock Band”. What started as an homage to those rhythm games has evolved —and now offers custom editions of the game featuring artists like Lady Gaga and Weezer.
Sure, it’s popular— but there are a few caveats to those eye-popping numbers. iPhone downloads count both free demos and paid games — and free is always more popular. So how does a small (16 person) developer make a profit, when it gives away more copies than it sells — and only gets $5 when it does rack up a sale?
For Tapulous, it’s a matter of combining several revenue streams.
Slideshow: The Worst Tech Blunders of the Last 25 Years
Like many developers, Tapulous initially focused on income from downloads. That all changed in October 2008, though, when the company added Katie Perry’s “Hot & Cold” to the game.
Over 250,000 people clicked through from the game to the iTunes store. Nearly a quarter of those reportedly purchased the song. It proved to be a wake up call for the company—and the record labels.
Tapulous earns an affiliate fee for steering people to iTunes. Record companies, seeing the traffic the company’s games can drive, have in turn agreed to a low royality rate per song to get their artists in the game.
It has, so far, been a strategy that has worked well for all parties. Tim O’Brien, head of business development at Tapulous, says the iTunes click-through rate currently ranges between 3 percent and 10 percent, depending on the song.
Affiliate income from Apple is just part of the equation. Tapulous also generates cash via in-game advertising — and has recently begun working with Hollywood studios to run integrated marketing campaigns in its games.
Paramount sponsored the game’s “Track of the Week” featured download this summer to promote its “G.I. Joe” film. And Fox gave players the opportunity to create custom themes for its film “Jennifer’s Body”. (The winning theme was distributed in-game with the film’s title song.)
Another campaign, this time centered on a Universal film (which O’Brien declined to name), is set to launch next week.
Even those free game downloads have a sales hook to them—as they upsell the custom editions. To date, the upsell has moved over 500,000 units—bringing in nearly $2.5 million.
With the company’s newest title—“Tap Tap Revenge 3”—players will be able to purchase in-game avatars and will have a wider selection of known songs to choose from (and purchase). The rates are easy to digest for consumers—two tracks run $0.99, while six cost $2.99—but still add up quickly.
The continued growth and expansion of the “Tap Tap” franchise is somewhat ironic, given the marked drop-off in music genre titles for traditional gaming platforms. Year-to-date, the genre is down nearly 50 percent on the Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii.
“Tap Tap Revenge is more of a casual gaming experience,” says O’Brien. “The power of the iPhone is when you’re waiting for the bus and you’ve got 90 seconds and want to play something fun, you can do it. With ‘Rock Band’ and ‘Guitar Hero,’ you can’t do that. Also, the price points for entry are a lot different. With ‘Rock Band’ and ‘Guitar Hero,’ you have to pay $100 to get going.”
Tapulous’ model is, in many ways, a combination of gaming’s new and old revenue-generating ways. Shareware—letting users play a limited part of a title and charging a premium for additional content—gave birth to some of the industry’s biggest franchises, such as “Doom” and “Duke Nukem,” while in-game advertising is one of the newer tricks in game maker’s bags.
The company’s next effort will be the launch of a new franchise—“Riddim Ribbon”—which will combine music and racing.
Beyond that could lay non-music games—but only if the company can find multiple ways to make money off of those as well.
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fcd3b51c04f133d2c12c11abf57ea73e | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/icahn-risk-of-double-dip-investor-bloodbath.html | Icahn: Risk of Double Dip, Investor 'Bloodbath' | Icahn: Risk of Double Dip, Investor 'Bloodbath'
There is a real risk of a double-dip recession and the market is acting in a "schizophrenic" way, which could cause a "bloodbath" for investors, billionaire investor Carl Icahn told CNBC Friday.
Carl IcahnShiho Fukada
"If you get a double-dip recession and they start coming down, it's going to be a bit of a bloodbath," Icahn said.
"The amateur investor is going to get hit badly again because they're pouring money into these funds. Some of these funds managers I do not think are experienced enough to handle some of the distressed stuff they're buying and they're going to get burned," he said.
Icahn said he still sees investment opportunities in advertising, telecom, the Internet and bankruptcies. But making money out of bankruptcies should only be attempted by the experts, he said.
Second Opinions:
Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio ManagerArt Cashin: Falling Dollar Can Crash Markets a la 2008
"We're quite involved in the secular change in the way advertising is going to be done. Obviously the cell-phone business is a growth business," he said.
"You've got secular changes that are hitting the world, especially in the way we buy. So the Internet, I don't have to say - it's obvious, is the great new thing. And advertising on the Internet as apposed to printed media," he added.
VIDEO0:0000:00Icahn: Market Acting "Schizophrenic"
Meanwhile, real estate is a perfect example of a good market to short, according to Icahn.
Icahn said he questions why "any individual in their right mind" would buy into Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT). Investors could never liquidate the underlying value of the buildings on their portfolios, he said.
"I think there's overcapacity in the office market and in shopping centers because you have a secular change in the way retailers are behaving and the way consumers are behaving," he added.
There are still opportunities in the debt markets, but "it's not what it was," he said.
Precarious Position
The economy is in a precarious position and the outlook for consumer confidence and unemployment remains bleak, according to Icahn.
"I think that you have to be cautious. It's on a precipice right now and it could really go either way," he said.
Icahn warned against seeing the recent stock rally as a sign that the economy has turned a corner.
"It's a myth to say the market is a good indicator of the economy. I think individuals are much more of an indictor," he said.
"The market is schizophrenic at this point. So you have trillions of dollars literally in consumers hands, they don't want to spend it, they're afraid to spend it," he added.
Yahoo, Microsoft Deal
Icahn, who owns a stake in Yahoo, thinks the Internet search firm is in a "great" secular area. And Carol Bartz, the company’s new president and CEO, is a "real operator" who is "getting things done," he said.
"It cannot compete with a giant like Google and a giant like Microsoft . And you can't let ego get in your way and say: "We're Yahoo and we can compete," Icahn told CNBC.
"I think Google and Microsoft are going to be these two huge dinosaurs. I don't want to call them dinosaurs, but these behemoths that are going to war with each other," he said.
The Internet search deal between Microsoft and Yahoo, which sees Microsoft's Bing search engine power the Yahoo Web site, was a "great deal," according to Icahn.
"I think Wall Street hasn't really appreciated how great that deal is," he said.
Video: Icahn's Words to Washington
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c7e5db9d3447493997630652d16c9a5e | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/kneale-obama-gets-nobel-prize-for-not-being-george-bush.html | Kneale: Obama Gets Nobel Prize… For Not Being George Bush | Kneale: Obama Gets Nobel Prize… For Not Being George Bush
It must be wonderful to be the beloved Barack Obama, to win laurels not for what you have achieved but for what you represent. To be lionized by an admiring world simply for being yourself. For getting yourself elected.
President Barack ObamaPhoto by: Pete Souza
The startling bestowal of the Nobel Peace Prize upon President Obama is nakedly political and unabashedly premature. Perhaps the President should graciously turn it down and tell the world the truth: that he barely has begun and has too much left to do.
Other Nobel Prizes honor geniuses for bona fide breakthroughs in molecular science, economics, fiber-optics and other arcane fields. The Peace Prize is a matter of dark art and rank politics (see: Al Gore getting it in 2007 after having the 2000 election stolen from him, as his supporters saw it).
That is why this year’s Peace Prize really goes to President Obama . . . for not being George Bush.
Maybe that's too harsh. Maybe President Obama's work is done: He has coddled Iran into dismantling its nuclear program; resolved the Palestinian stalemate in the Middle East; completed the revival of our economy and the re-employment of its casualties and castoffs; and saved the world from global warming. (Whoops, make that "climate change," seeing as how, since 1999, the earth has heated up by only thirteen one-hundreths (0.13) of one degree Fahrenheit.)
Yup, perhaps the President already has earned his way into the Peace Prize pantheon alongside the likes of civil-rights icon Martin Luther King, protector-of-the-poor Mother Theresa, Nazi-hunter Elie Wiesel and the swashbuckling expansionist Teddy Roosevelt.
These people spent decades of their lives trying to lift the world. Nobel Laureate Nelson Mandela spent 27 years in a South African prison before being freed to lead his people. Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov spent over two decades clashing with an oppressive government and advocating for political freedom and disarmament.
Jimmy Carter, the first President to make human rights a global issue, left office in 1980 and spent 22 years negotiating peace between foes, building homes for the poor and writing on policy and geo-global politics. Then he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2002.
As for President Obama? He rubbed elbows as a local community organizer in the political machine of Chicago for a few years, longer than he served in the U.S. Senate. (Whatever that tag "local organizer" really means; think “Acorn!”) He had inhabited the White House only six weeks or so before the nobel nomination process closed.
This makes even a guy who voted for Bam—as I did—cringe in apprehension: What is the President, who is not yet ten months in to a possible eight-year occupation of the White House—supposed to do for an encore? And what, exactly, do his benefactors expect in return for their unalloyed adoration of their chosen Beautiful Child?
Slideshow: Want to Be Obama's Neighbor?
We may dread the day he disappoints them.
Look at the soundbites, redolent with attitude, that greeted the Obama Prize.
"We hope that he will be able to achieve peace in the Middle East and achieve Israeli withdrawal to 1967 borders and establish an independent Palestinian state on 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as its capital," the chief Palestinian peace negoatiator, Saeb Erekat, told Reuters.
And would you like fries with that?
The prime minister of Norway all but admitted this prize amounts to betting on the come: "This is a surprising, an exciting prize. It remains to be seen if he will succeed with reconciliation, peace and nuclear disarmament."
“It remains to be seen”??? So why give President Obama one of the world’s highest honors now, before the verdict is in?
Ah, because Obama makes us feel better—about ourselves. It’s a matter of premature, not just instant, gratification. We Americans are proud to have voted the first black man into the White House. Now the world’s rarified ranks of the elite want us to know: Good boys and girls! Good choice! They approve.
Handing Obama a Prize he hasn’t yet earned makes the Nobel folks feel better about themselves, too. “In less than a year in office, he has transformed the way we look at ourselves and the world we live in and rekindled hope for a world at peace with itself," gushes Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency and the Peace Prize laureate in 2005, according to Reuters.
See what I mean?
More Kneale ...
Hey Feds, Leave Bloggers AloneObama, IBM and How to Kill Silicon ValleyKraft, Cadbury and Class WarfareFour Lessons From LettermanWhy Apple is the World's Best RetailerMichael Moore Should MoveSave ObamaCare ... By Killing It
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eaea1ce5ff22651cac4fbf38935f63e6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/lightning-round-bp-aflac-verizon-and-more.html | American Electric Power : Cramer can’t get behind a utility with this many coal-based plants, he said. Sell AEP.
Royal Bank of Scotland : Sell RBS. “It’s too risky,” Cramer said.
15 Rules for Playing Defense
Verizon Communications : Cramer likes VZ and its 6.5% dividend yield.
Agnico-Eagle Mines : Buy AEM, Cramer said.
MEMC Electronic Materials : Sell WFR, Cramer said.
BP : Cramer is bullish on BP.
Phoenix Cos. : Go with Aflac or MetLife instead, Cramer said.
Hecla Mining : Sell HL, Cramer said.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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80457458f9ef49c8c5084036bd65302f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/lightning-round-ot-peabody-energy-caterpillar-and-more.html | Peabody Energy : BTU is the only coal stock that Cramer will recommend, he said.
15 Rules for Playing Defense
Caterpillar : Cramer is bullish on CAT as a play on the economic recovery.
Nordic American Tanker : NAT is a buy, Cramer said.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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eb824b768a4296234b96bd179e215c83 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/mad-mail-can-we-trust-52week-highs.html | A Thursday Lightning Round caller stumped Cramer with Emergent BioSolutions. So he did the research and returned with a call.
The verdict? EBS is a “solid speculative play.” The company makes the only FDA-approved anthrax vaccine, BioThrax, which it sells to the government. The agreement extends to 2013, but Washington is expected to award EBS with a new contract worth up to $500 million. That’s almost as much as the company’s $530 million market cap, Cramer said, and it’s “a catalyst worth speculating on.”
15 Rules for Playing Defense
On top of this, EBS is working on a successor drug to BioThrax, which should work as a nice patent extender if the FDA approves it. Also, the company has a strong pipeline of vaccines – for typhoid, hepatitis B and chlamydia. This only adds to Cramer’s case for buying the stock. But it is a spec, so use limit orders, buy in increments and do your own research on Emergent BioSolutions before buying.
A huge applause for the interview with Nucor's Dan DiMicco last night! It was spot on and deeply needed. Job creation is probably at the top of most of our lists. I have made a commitment to myself during this past year, to call or email my elected officials, first thing in the morning on my day off, each week, to let my voice be heard. Thank you for constantly using your voice for good Jim. Just fantastic shows, jam-packed with lots of great information and interviews this entire season! As always your outfits are gorgeous and so GQ! --Lisa in Maryland
Cramer says: “Dan wanted to come on and tell the story. He’s the man we should thank. He’s taking the time out from running a major steel company, the best in America, to make everyone realize that creation of jobs is the most important thing. My hat’s off [to him].”
___
Hey Jim: I'm starting to read a little more in the news about more companies starting to hit their 52-week highs. I know this statistic has been an important indicator of bullish and bearish sentiment in the market. From October 2008 through April 2009, stocks fell approximately 50%. As we wrap around this time period, the historical 52-week high of many stocks will continue to fall. Even if stock prices do nothing over the next six months, most stocks will appear to improve on this metric, and most stocks will actually start setting new highs. This anomaly is similar with earnings comparisons of prior year starting in the fourth quarter. With these historical measures being so skewed, are these statistics even relevant? --Jonathan in Georgia
Cramer says: “No. That’s why I’ve been working on a multiweek project to analyze the stocks that are at their three-year or all-time high, which is much more effective and much more efficient.”
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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907efbc5fc918724f44555f83fa6987d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/man-who-submitted-winning-hush-puppies-name-surfaces.html | Man Who Submitted Winning Hush Puppies Name Surfaces | Man Who Submitted Winning Hush Puppies Name Surfaces
Out of the more than 9,000 names we received as the wild card entryfor the new Richmond minor league baseball team, only one person had our winner, the Richmond Hush Puppies.
Twenty four hours after we announced our name, which will be one of six considered for team, we received a phone call from Jeff Dunn.
Dunn, a neurologist who did his medical training in the Hampton Roads area, knows the state of Virginia well, even though he currently resides in California and teaches at Stanford University.
Dunn, who is a consulting neurologist for the San Francisco 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks and the Seattle Mariners, said he’s a big minor league baseball fan.
Beyond Baseball Cards - Alternative Investment Ideas
“Five minutes after I proposed to my wife, we were at a Tidewater Tides game against the Toledo Mud Hens,” Dunn said.
Dunn frequently brings his family to the San Jose Giants, the Single-A affiliate of the Giants.
“Our team name is the Giants and we have a mascot that looks like it is a giant that’s suffering from acromegaly,” Dunn said.
The reason Dunn picked the Hush Puppies?
“When my wife and I were in Virginia, it was busy and it was tough to get away to have a meal out together,” Dunn said. “But when we did, we’d have hush puppies. It’s a part of southeastern Virginia cuisine and it was part of our togetherness. And that’s what minor league baseball is about. It’s about bringing people in the community together.”
If the team picks Hush Puppies as the final name, Dunn says he’ll fly his family in to see a game and they’ll all scream, “Go Pupps!”
Questions? Comments? SportsBiz@cnbc.com
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92e9b765fdf498fc00f4293b13399b93 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/market-tips-recovery-not-sustainable-hedge-now.html | Market Tips: Recovery Not Sustainable, Hedge Now | Market Tips: Recovery Not Sustainable, Hedge Now
The dollar rose on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated monetary policy could be tightened as a recovery takes hold, sending commodities prices lower. Experts told CNBC the economic recovery is not sustainable and urged investors to hedge their bets now.
There Isn't a Sustainable Recovery Coming
There isn't a sustainable recovery coming, warns Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group. He paints two possible scenarios that could happen in the U.S. next year.
Hedge Your Bets
For investors who have reaped stellar returns from the market rally, be sure to hedge your bets, say Ron Ianieri, chief market strategist & senior option trader at Tycoon Research & Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group.
Hedge or Sell Out
The market rally is not sustainable and investors who are long should hedge against the risk, says Ron Ianieri, chief market strategist and senior option trader at Tycoon Research. Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group suggests taking profits instead.
Adopt a Pro-Cyclical Investment Strategy
As Fan Cheuk Wan, MD & head of research, Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse Private Banking Division, believes we are still in the early phase of the recovery stage, she advises investors to continue to adopt a pro-cyclical investment strategy.
Stay Long on Asian Equities
Continue to stay long on Asian equities, advises Fan Cheuk Wan, MD & head of research, Asia Pacific at Credit Suisse Private Banking Division.
Asia — A Good Earnings Story
Asia no longer cheap but still makes a good earnings rebound story, says Andrew Pease, investment strategist at Russell Investment Group. He tells CNBC why he is upbeat on cyclicals, and on investments in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan.
Positive on China
Simon Godfrey, investment specialist for Asian equities ex Japan at Fortis Investments, is positive on China due to the country's strong domestic demand and the infrastructure projects.
Upbeat on Asian Bonds
The outlook for the Asian bond market is favorable, says Victoria Ip-Cheung, head of fixed income at Manulife. She tells CNBC how best to play the fixed income space.
Asia's Recovery Is Led By Stimulus
Asia's recovery is not sustainable without government stimulus and the region is not a great destination for investment right now, says Kirby Daley, senior strategist of Newedge Group.
Investing in Silver
Silver is a buy opportunity, says Peter McGuire, Managing Director at CWA Global Markets. He speaks to CNBC rajah about investing in the "poor man's gold".
Track Stock Funds, Bond Funds, Money Market Funds and ETFs Here
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13542d116179f60cc13fd236185b3ffe | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/markets-are-only-halfway-through-rebound-barton-biggs.html | Markets Are Only Halfway Through Rebound: Barton Biggs | Markets Are Only Halfway Through Rebound: Barton Biggs
The market is only about halfway through what is historically typical of a bear-market recovery—and this time around, the rebound is likely to be even bigger, said Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners.
VIDEO0:0000:00Bulls, Bears & Pigs
Traxis analyzed 14 past bear markets—ranging from gold to US stocks—and found that when markets dipped more than 40 percent, the average rally off the lows was about 72 percent, he said.
Since the Dow is up only about 45 percent and the S&P about 52 percent, the market still has a lot of room to the upside, Biggs said.
"We've had a tremendous, an unbelievable decline in both the economy and the stock market, and so I just think we're going to have a bigger than normal bounce," Biggs said. "I just think we've got further to go."
Counterpoint:
Market is in a 'Sweet Spot'—Until Winter: Chief StrategistDow 10,000? Experts Say Not For Long
To take advantage of the runup, Biggs recommended investing in the following areas:
Large-Cap Technology
Pharmaceuticals, Oil Services — These two areas were very depressed and are due for a powerful recovery, he said.
Emerging Markets, particularly Asia — Asia stopped outperforming in the middle of June, allowing room for European countries to grow, Biggs said. Led by China, Asia will make its comeback in the fourth quarter.
______________________________CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
Countries With the Most Foreign InvestmentWhich Oil Nations Make Money?
___________________________
______________________________CNBC's Companies in the News
General Electric
Comcast
GE, Comcast Continue Talks Over NBC Stake
Citigroup
FDIC Questions Citi Management Review: Report
Morgan Stanley
Ex-Morgan Stanley Exec to Start Hedge Fund
Wynn Resorts
Wynn Macau Debut Cashes in on Asia Gaming Fever
______________________________ Disclosures:
Disclosure information was not available for Biggs or his company.
Disclaimer
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8e162eb00831482dd9030e9cf998a530 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/pops-drops-newmont-mining-wells-fargo.html | Following are the week’s biggest winners and losers. Find out why shares of Newmont Mining and Wells Fargo popped while Acorda Therapeutics and iShares 20 Year Treas. ETF dropped.
POPS (stocks that jumped higher)Newmont Mining (NEM) popped 10%. This miner followed the spot price of gold higher, which was buoyed by a convergence of factors including the dollar's decline, technical buying and inflation fears. - I like FCX better, says Guy Adami.
VIDEO0:0000:00Stock Pops & Drops
Wells Fargo (WFC) popped 11%. Investors ignored a bearish report from UBS in favor of a bullish one from Goldman which singled out Wells for an upgrade as it raised its rating on the large-bank sector to attractive. - Goldman wins, chuckles Tim Seymour.
Macy’s (M) popped 10%. Stronger than expected same-store sales numbers released Thursday fueled hopes that the upcoming holiday season may not be quite so bad. - It's not going to be a blue Christmas after all, says Karen Finerman.
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) popped 13%. Deutsche boosted its price target on this stock from $57 to $62, citing increased need for the services of this exploration firm. - This stock closed on its lows which concerns me, says Joe Terranova.
Research In Motion (RIMM) popped 5%. Baird upgraded RIM to "outperform" from "neutral," saying upcoming device launches could be a positive catalyst and the current stock price was attractive. - I told you to get long at $65, reminds Guy Adami.
Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) popped 5%. This ETF which tracks emerging markets climbed along with commodities prices. - I still like valuations, says Tim Seymour.
UnitedHealth (UNH) popped 2%. This and other managed care stocks had a volatile week- first dropping on renewed hopes of a public option and possibility of a windfall tax, but then ending the week on a high note as investors came to believe they were simply too cheap to resist. - Just a regular week for HMOs, observes Karen Finerman.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) popped 3%. The consumer products and health care company moved higher ahead of earnings next week as concerns over swine flu heat up. - I think the stock is a buy, counsels Joe Terranova.
DROPS (stocks that slid lower)
Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) dropped 22%. The firm’s proposed drug to help multiple sclerosis patients walk, appears to have a "very limited effect" even though the drug met its main clinical trial goals, U.S. regulatory staff said in documents released on Friday.iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas.Bd (TLT) dropped 3%. Comments from Ben Bernanke led bond investors to fear that the Fed may raise interest rates sooner rather than later.
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your e-mail to .Trader disclosure: On Oct. 9th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (M), (MSFT), (DRI); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (TLT); Terranova Owns (JPM), (MOS), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN), (CCL); Terranova Owns December 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns December 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (F), (INFY), (RTP)
For Joe TerranovaVirtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
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2abe69f1aa989130db023d24fdcb4928 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/readers-ejoice-for-ebooks.html | Readers E-Joice for E-Books | Readers E-Joice for E-Books
Good news for those of you who are waiting/hoping for more E-book choices.
The WSJ reports Barnes & Noble is hoping to sell its own electronic reader as early as next month.
The paper reports, "The device is expected to feature a six-inch screen from digital-paper maker E-Ink Corp. with touch input and a virtual keyboard, like the one used on Apple Inc.'s iPhone." Gizmodo reports that the new e-reader is powered by Google's Android operating system and according to the Journal, "The Barnes & Noble device is expected to also use a wireless connection to download books from the online e-book store that the books retailer unveiled in July."
My colleague Julia Boorstin who covers the media for CNBC and writes the blog, Media Moneywrites in her post today, “Because of Barnes & Noble's market share, its focus on books and its physical stores, it's well positioned to market the device, perhaps better than Amazon , whose Kindle currently controls about 60 percent US market share or than Sony which has about 35 percent of the market.”
I’ve been a fan of my e-book now for years and I love all this new competition. But I’ve got bigger (and more selfish) hopes and dreams for the e-book phenomenon and industry. I want these e-books in my kids’ schools as soon as possible. I wince every morning when my 11-year old daughter - who weighs in at a whopping 52lbs soaking wet – struggles with her backpack, an onerous beast that weighs a staggering 26lbs!!!!
Check out the latest guest blogs on Bullish:
Surviving Toxic BossesRemarketing MarketingHow Those Google Guys Do ItBe Smarter-Borrow Brilliance
Questions, comments? bullishonbooks@cnbc.com
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10812521d77bb43c581ac5247108bc59 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/sp-will-hit-new-high-then-correct-charts.html | S&P Will Hit New High, then Correct: Charts | S&P Will Hit New High, then Correct: Charts
The S&P 500 index will move to a new high, then correct, but the correction won't be large, independent trader Bill McLaren told CNBC Friday.
"If this rally can carry to a new high, considering the cycles, that should set in a top or set up the probability for it," McLaren said. "We're more likely for a new high."
"If this index moves to new highs, I think it will be at risk," he warned.
VIDEO3:2303:23S&P to Move to New High, Then Correct: Charts
"We're looking for this run-up to terminate," McLaren said when looking at the chart for the S&P 500 index.
He said he doesn't expect a huge correction, just something "to consolidate the move up from the March low, maybe even since the July low."
"This could also consolidate with a large sideways move," he added.
"A weak U.S. dollar is bullish for stocks," McLaren told "Squawk Box Europe." The dollar's "new low" should be watched closely, he added.
"This is either a capitulation or a panicked move down, or we're going to get a little false move in the rally, maybe a surprisingly fast rally. And U.S. stocks are going to react accordingly," he predicted. "If it can't break away now, that would reverse everything."
Track Stock Funds, Bond Funds, Money Market Funds and ETFs Here
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746ef92b1ffd8e62422862dd9fce25b0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/stocks-trading-at-new-52week-highs.html | Stocks Trading at New 52-Week Highs | Stocks Trading at New 52-Week Highs
Following a strong day for new 52-week highs on Thursday, with 71 S&P companies reaching this level, U.S. stocks closed in positive territory Friday. In today's trading session, a total of 41 companies hit new 52-week highs.
Send comments to:bythenumbers@cnbc.com
bythenumbers.cnbc.com
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fb1e2ec4962f3b0779175f004106f4a6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/us-mortgage-backer-may-need-bailout-experts-say.html | U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say | U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say
A year after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac teetered, industry executives and Washington policy makers are worrying that another government mortgage giant could be the next housing domino.
Problems at the Federal Housing Administration, which guarantees mortgages with low down payments, are becoming so acute that some experts warn the agency might need a federal bailout.
FHA logo
Running questions about the F.H.A.’s future — underscored by interviews with policy makers, analysts and home buyers — came to the fore on Thursday on Capitol Hill. In testimony before a House subcommittee, the F.H.A. commissioner, David H. Stevens, assured lawmakers that his agency would not need a bailout and that it was managing its risks.
But he acknowledged that some 20 percent of F.H.A. loans insured last year — and as many as 24 percent of those from 2007 — faced serious problems including foreclosure, offering a preview of a forthcoming audit of the agency’s finances.
“Let me simply state at the outset that based on current projections, absent any catastrophic home price decline, F.H.A. will not need to ask Congress and the American taxpayer for extraordinary assistance — we will not need a bailout,” Mr. Stevens said in his testimony.
But to its critics, the F.H.A. looks like another Fannie Mae. The hearings on Thursday came on the same day that the federal agency charged with overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provided a somber assessment of those giants’ health. In the year since the government stepped in to rescue them, the companies have taken $96 billion from the Treasury, and may need more.
Since the bottom fell out of the mortgage market, the F.H.A. has assumed a crucial role in the nation’s housing market. Created in 1934 to help lower-income and first-time buyers purchase homes, the agency now insures roughly 5.4 million single-family home mortgages, with a combined value of $675 billion.
In addition, these loans are bundled into mortgage-backed securities and guaranteed through the Government National Mortgage Association, known as Ginnie Mae. That means the taxpayer is responsible for paying investors who own Ginnie Mae bonds when F.H.A.-backed mortgages hit trouble.
“It appears destined for a taxpayer bailout in the next 24 to 36 months,” Edward Pinto, a former Fannie Mae executive, said in testimony prepared for the hearing. Mr. Pinto, who was the chief credit officer from 1987 to 1989 for Fannie Mae, went further than most housing analysts and predicted that F.H.A. losses would more than wipe out the agency’s $30 billion of cash reserves.
The issue has polarized Congress. Republicans, who led efforts to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before those companies ran into trouble, are now seeking to bridle the F.H.A. Many Democrats insist the F.H.A. is playing a vital role in the housing market, which is only just starting to stabilize.
“F.H.A. has stepped into the void left by the private market,” Representative Maxine Waters, Democrat from California, said at the hearing. “Let’s be clear; without F.H.A., there would be no mortgage market right now.”
That was the case for Bernadine Shimon. Like many Americans, Ms. Shimon has recently been through some rough times. She lost a house to foreclosure, declared bankruptcy, got divorced and is now a single mother, teaching high school English in a Denver suburb.
She wanted a house but no lender would touch her. The Federal Housing Administration was more obliging. With the F.H.A. insuring her mortgage, Ms. Shimon was able to buy a $134,000 fixer-upper in August.
“The government gave me another chance,” she said.
The government is giving as many people as it possibly can the chance to buy a house or, if they are in financial difficulty, refinance it. The F.H.A. is insuring about 6,000 loans a day, four times the amount in 2006. Its portfolio is growing so fast that even F.H.A. backers express amazement.
For decades it was an article of faith that helping people of limited means like Ms. Shimon get a house was good for the new owner, good for the neighborhood and good for American capitalism. Then came the housing bust, which demonstrated that when lenders allowed people to buy houses they ultimately could not afford, it hurt the parties — while putting the economy itself in a tailspin.
In the aftermath of the crash, there is wide divergence on how easy, or how hard, it should be to become a homeowner. Skittish lenders are asking for 20 percent down, which few prospective borrowers have to spare. As a result, private lending has dwindled.
The government has stepped into the breach, facilitating loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent and offering other incentives to stabilize the market. Real estate agents in some hard-hit areas say every single one of their clients is using the F.H.A.
“They’re counting their pennies, scraping up that 3.5 percent,” Bonni Malone of Prudential Americana in Las Vegas said. “Mostly they’re buying foreclosed homes from banks, although I had one client who bought from a guy that was dying. It’s turning around the market.”
While the government’s actions have helped avert full-scale economic disaster, there is growing concern that it might have doled out its favors with too generous a hand.
Many of the loans the F.H.A. insured in 2007 and last year are now turning delinquent, agency officials acknowledge. The loans made in those two years are performing “far worse” than newer loans, dragging down the whole portfolio, Mr. Stevens of the F.H.A. said in an interview.
The number of F.H.A. mortgage holders in default is 410,916, up 76 percent from a year ago, when 232,864 were in default, according to agency data.
Despite the agency’s attempt to outrun its fate by insuring ever-larger amounts of new loans to such borrowers as Ms. Shimon — the current rate is over a billion dollars a day — 7.77 percent of the portfolio is in default, up from 5.6 percent a year ago.
Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it.
“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”
The troubled loans are nevertheless weighing on the agency’s capital reserve fund, which has fallen to below its Congressionally mandated minimum of 2 percent, from over 6 percent two years ago.
The optimism expressed by Mr. Stevens, the F.H.A. commissioner, places him at odds not only with some outside experts but with Kenneth Donohue, the inspector general of the Housing and Urban Development Department, who is also F.H.A.’s watchdog. Mr. Donohue said the drop in reserves was “a flashing red light” that the agency was not taking seriously enough.
“It might be we’ll get ourselves out of this and that everything will be fine, but I don’t paint that rosy a picture,” Mr. Donohue said. “They’re banking on the fact that the economy will continue to improve, that the housing market will begin to sustain itself.”
He noted that if private lenders had raised their down payment requirements in the last two years, it raised the question, “what does the F.H.A. think it is doing by asking only 3.5 percent?”
Any more than that and Ms. Shimon, 45, would still be a renter. As it was, she cashed in her retirement savings account to come up with the necessary funds. She did not have enough to spare for closing costs, so her mortgage broker arranged a deal where the charges were wrapped into the loan at the cost of a higher interest rate. She cried when the deal was done.
The house was empty and trashed. Slowly, she is trying to bring it back to life. She spent the first few weeks picking up garbage in the backyard.
Is Ms. Shimon a good bet? Even she has no easy answer. Her mortgage payment, $1,100, is half of what she takes home every month. It is not easy to make ends meet. Teachers can get laid off like everyone else.
“The government,” she said, “is doing what it needed to do — taking a risk on people.”
Chaz Fullenkamp, an automotive technician in Columbus, Ohio, got an F.H.A. loan even though he was living on the financial edge. “If I got unemployed, I’d be wiped out in a month or two,” he says. Thanks to the F.H.A., however, he is better off than he used to be.
Mr. Fullenkamp used F.H.A. insurance to buy a house this spring for $179,000. The eager seller paid the closing costs and also gave Mr. Fullenkamp $2,500 in cash. He immediately applied for the $8,000 tax rebate. Even taking his down payment into account, he came out ahead.
“I knew in my heart I could not really afford the house, but they gave it to me anyway,” said Mr. Fullenkamp, 22. “I thought, ‘Wow, I’m surprised I pulled that off.’ ”
CNBC Slideshows
States with the Highest Foreclosure RatesBiggest Welfare States
As the number of loans has soared, random quality control checks have decreased sharply, F.H.A. staff members say. Mr. Donohue, the inspector general, cited numerous examples of organized fraud in testimony to Congress earlier this year.
“They need to stop taking bad loans in the door,” he said in an interview. “They’re taking on all this volume, they have to have very active underwriting standards.”
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121300af1c191ad9d933e298877636fc | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/vampires-played-out-but-teens-less-ashamed-of-coldwater-creek.html | Vampires 'Played Out,' but Teens Less Ashamed of Coldwater Creek | Vampires 'Played Out,' but Teens Less Ashamed of Coldwater Creek
Abercrombie & FitchPaul Sakuma
Now that September retail numbers are behind us, Brian Tunick at J.P. Morgan is looking at October, and beyond.
For one thing, he says 45 percent of teenagers say the whole vampire thing is "getting a little played out". Well, sort of. More on that in a moment.
Tunick expects overall same store sales in October to fall 4.3 percent, but store by store, projections vary widely. Aeropostale is expected to continue rocketing upward, with same store sales projected to increase between 12 and 14 percent. TJX and Ross are also expected to improve about six percent. Losers are the familiar names: Abercrombie & Fitch (projected to fall 17 to 19 percent), Pacific Sunwear (projected down 21 to 23 percent), Talbots (projected down 17 to 19 percent), and Tiffany (projected down 15 to 17 percent).
Retailers Trying to Kick The Discount Habit
As for how investors are reacting to this week's positive news, Tunick says they "appear to be chasing beta as appetite for risk (i.e., the biggest margin recovery stories) is now increasing." He says specialty retail stocks in the Russell 2000 are up 82 percent on average this year, while the index is up 13 percent. Specialty retailers in the S&P 500 are up 52 percent year to date, handily beating the index, and the numbers are even better in the S&P 400: "Specialty retailers are up 126% while the index is up 20%."
What Teens (And The Rest of Us) Will Be Wearing This Halloween
Then Tunick throws in some entertainment value, with "Tunick's Top Ten Takeaways from OUR Teen Survey".
They include:
Sixty-five percent of teens surveyed can't understand why their allowances have been cut 50 percent...and YET mom keeps coming home with bags full of candles, shower gels and anti-bac soap form Bath & Body Works . Seventy-four percent of teens surveyed still believe that Aeropostale's midteen EBIT margins have more room to expand next year than Abercrombie & Fitch's mid-single-digit EBIT margins. Eighty-two percent are less embarrassed to be seen with their grandmother wearing Coldwater Creek apparel this year versus last year. Regarding sales of "Twilight" paraphernalia at Hot Topic , 45 percent of teens said that this vampire thing is "getting a little played out." Ninety-eight percent of teens were Twittering, updating their Facebook page, and downloading games onto their iPhones while taking the survey "and can't believe that the investment community would actually think about listening to them when making investment decisions."
Wow! Really?
Oh, wait, what is this? An asterisk! "Please note that no actual teens were surveyed in our survey!!" Tunick also reports that his monthly poker game is coming up on Tuesday "so let me know if you're interested".
Who says analysts are boring?
Questions? Comments? Funny Stories? Email
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9ea891c16be036754742ea223215eb3a | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/why-stocks-and-treasurys-have-been-rising-at-same-time.html | Why Stocks and Treasurys Have Been Rising at Same Time | Why Stocks and Treasurys Have Been Rising at Same Time
Normally, stocks and bonds don't go up at the same time. But these days, nothing in the markets seems normal.
uP CHART
When stocks fall—usually in response to bad news—investors flee to the security of US Treasurys. Conversely, when stocks rally in response to good news, investors pull their money out of bonds and take on more risk by owning stocks.
Slideshow: 20 Stocks Ready to Pop
Lately, however, both stocks and bonds have tended to go up together.
"They're really having a stare fight, and I don't know who's going to blink first," says Bill Walsh, president of Hennion & Walsh in Parsippany, N.J.
Experts say there are two factors are work here: a weaker dollar—which makes both US stocks and bonds cheaper for investors—and a change in investor attitude toward owning Treasurys in general.
The weakened dollar is acting as the rising tide lifting all investment boats—making not only stocks and bonds cheaper but many commodities such as oil and gold. Low interest rates hurt the dollar's value, and the market is betting that the Federal Reserve is planning no major changes in monetary policy at least until 2010.
"This dollar carry trade is really flooding into all asset classes and leading to a simultaneous rally across anything—stocks, high-yield bonds, Treasury prices, gold," says Mike Larson, an analyst with Weiss Research. "The Fed is essentially pursuing a policy...of asset inflation. They're doing it by cheapening the currency and by flooding the system with easy money."
While Larson's analysis is echoed by his peers, it doesn't fully explain why investors would buy low-risk assets like Treasurys if there's so much confidence that deflation-fighting will remain the goal of policy makers, in turn boosting higher-return assets like stocks and commodities.
Other market experts float another theory to help explain the stocks-bonds relationship further: Treasurys are being used less as a safe haven and more as a hedge against a stock rally that, despite a 50 percent gain, continues to draw skepticism.
"Things that you would expect to happen are not happening together," says Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors in New York. "We're at the high end of the range again on the S&P. The volatility is still there. That can be upsetting to a lot of people."
Treasurys appear to be serving as the first step back into the markets for some investors.
Just as the yield on the 10-year Treasury started dropping below 3.40 percent the last week of September, parked cash started coming in from money markets.
Net outflows from money market funds hit $43.17 billion for the week ended Sept. 30, according to data EPFR Global provided to Reuters.
Of that total, bond funds took in a whopping $5.274 billion, $3 billion of which went to government debt funds. The move to government bond funds was "eye-catching," EPFR's global market analyst Cameron Brandt told Reuters.
"The Treasury market is definitely rallying because even though it's not the end of the world, there's still 10 percent unemployment and economic growth could take a long time to get out of this," Walsh says. "The Fed's going to keep interest rates low to spur the economy. That's the way Treasurys trade."
To be sure, the Treasurys trade could be undone should third-quarter earnings season continue the very early trend of surprising to the upside. That might send investors full-fledge back into risk and away from the save haven of government debt.
Special Report: Investor's Guide to Real Estate
Yet two of the three bond auctions this week went well, with investors avoiding only the very far end of the yield curve with the 30-year bonds that went up for sale Thursday. Strong demand for Treasurys comes even among a battery of surveys showing investor sentiment improving, the latest being findings from online brokerage TD Ameritrade that showed 45 percent of its clients feeling more bullish about investing.
But investor skepticism also appears to remain healthy as well, so those investors pulling funds out of their money market accounts will be looking for where their cash will be treated best.
"People are just scared. They're worried about valuations, they're worried about another correction," Boyle says. "There's a lot of cautious people out there (saying), 'We've gone up too many days and this is a very fierce rally. We've had such a big run-up, we're due for a correction, so I'm going to park my money.' "
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3eb02c7cd82071aacb49ba12994bdc02 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/09/your-first-move-for-monday-october-12th.html | Here’s our Fast Money Final Trade. Our gang gives you Monday’s best trades, right now.
Tim Seymour says Rio Tinto is a sell.
Guy Adami suggests longRaymond James .
Karen Finerman recommends long Darden . “It’s cheap here,” she adds.
Joe Terranova thinks Liner Technology is a buy.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Final Trade
Click here to see other Final Trade posts.
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! Prefer to keep it between us? You can still send questions and comments to .
Trader disclosure: On Oct. 9th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (BTU), (C), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (M), (MSFT), (DRI); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (TLT); Terranova Owns (JPM), (MOS), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN), (CCL); Terranova Owns December 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns December 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns December 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS); Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (EEM), (F), (INFY), (RTP)
For Joe TerranovaVirtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA)
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0fc67d80fb8da662ed3fd940211c947f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/10/the-new-job-search-lots-of-interviewsand-then-silence.html | The New Job Search: Lots Of Interviews—And Then Silence | The New Job Search: Lots Of Interviews—And Then Silence
IT has happened to so many job seekers.
They’ve sent out their dozens — maybe hundreds — of résumés and finally get the call to come in for an interview. They’re asked back for a second round. Sometimes there’s even a third call. They’ve met practically everyone in the company. They don’t have just a foot in the door, they have their whole body.
Laid off woman
Or so it seems. Suddenly all goes quiet. In a week or two, or a month or two, they get a message, if they’re lucky, telling them that someone else was picked for the job. If not, it’s just deadly silence.
“I am currently waiting to hear back from two positions,” said Katie Murphy, who has been looking for a job in public relations in New York for almost a year. “One I’ve now interviewed with four times, they’ve offered me a contracted three-month position, but I’ve yet to receive an official offer. And they’ve just asked to do another interview.”
While there is no hard data, recruiters and academics who follow such trends agree that more people are being asked to do more interviews before being offered a position. They also say it has become ever more common to ask prospective employees to work temporarily for a few months, with the possibility of a permanent job at the end.
CNBC.com Slideshows:
The Best Jobs In AmericaThe Worst Jobs In America
“Hiring managers are increasingly prone to shopping,” said Todd Safferstone, managing director of the Corporate Executive Board, a research company. “The perception is that there’s lot of great talent out there, and even if the person across the table is great, there might be someone else even better.”
While the current recession may have intensified the trend, the hiring process had already become more protracted over the last few decades for a number of reasons, said Lawrence Katz, a professor of economics at Harvard University.
Human resource departments have become more professional, he said, and employers now need to diversify and justify their hiring processes to meet affirmative action and civil rights laws. Technology has also made it easier and less expensive for companies to conduct background checks and personality tests, Professor Katz said.
But there is little doubt that the current gloomy economic climate — with job seekers outnumbering openings six to one — makes it more likely that companies will think long and hard before hiring.
“We’re definitely putting people through more paces than ever before,” said Michelle Robinovitz, a recruiter for AGH, a midsize accounting firm in Atlanta. “In better times, we did one or two interviews. Now we really want to make sure someone will fit and we do a minimum of four interviews.”
I hear stories all the time. A friend of mine in publishing was one of 100 people interviewed for a position. She got the job about five months after her first interview. I ran into an acquaintance recently who told me that he had had eight interviews for a position and was still waiting to hear.
Erin Slattery, for instance, is looking for a position as an account executive after leaving her job in Kansas City to move to Arlington, Va., to be with her boyfriend. She said she had been searching for almost a year and interviewed with a public relations firm twice in July. She was waiting to be called back for Round 3 when she heard the post had been filled. She is still hoping another position may open up at the company.
“The hardest part is that it never leaves your mind,” she said of the endless waiting. “Every single morning and every single night, I think: ‘Will I hear from them? Should I call them? Should I wait?’ You don’t want to come off as desperate, but you want to make sure that you’re still on their mind. It’s like dating — do I follow the rules, or am I scaring them away?”
While she looked for something permanent, she decided to do some temporary work, and even that had a more extensive screening process than she expected.
“I had to do two phone interviews and one in-person interview to land my current temp position,” she said.
From the outside, the hiring process can seem arbitrary and even cruel. But it’s important to see where companies are coming from, said Alec Levenson, a research scientist with the Center for Effective Organizations at the University of Southern California.
“In an up market, say the late 1990s, the cost of making a bad hiring decision was low,” he said. “The company could be a lot more cavalier about hiring, because if the worker doesn’t fit, the chances are that he’ll move on soon.” But with jobs scarce, an employee is more likely to cling to a job, even if it isn’t the best. So the employer has to take the steps to fire that person, which usually involves a lengthy documentation process, warnings and meetings. It consumes a lot of time and energy, Professor Levenson said.
Ms. Robinovitz said her company, like most nowadays, was very lean and no longer had the capacity to absorb a new employee who turned out to be mediocre.
In addition, fear of wrongful termination lawsuits makes firms more leery of hiring someone who may not seem perfect.
“There’s been gradual erosion over the past 30 years of pure employment-at-will as more and more people have come under employment protection laws,” Professor Levenson said. “It’s become more and more difficult for companies to cavalierly hire and fire. Even if 100 people are eligible to sue, only one or two might, but that’s all it takes” to scare a company.
That’s one of the reasons hiring people on a three-month trial basis — usually without benefits — has become increasingly popular, he said. It’s a way for both employee and employer to see how things work before committing. Think of it as moving in together rather than marrying.
But more interviews don’t necessarily mean better people are being hired, Mr. Safferstone said. In 2003, his company asked 28,000 new hires across all fields how many interviews they had to get their current job. The researchers then used performance management data and interviews with managers to evaluate the performance of those 28,000 hires.
Controlling for all other factors, it turned out that those who were interviewed four to five times were considered the best workers — better than those who had been interviewed one to three times or six or more times.
That may be because as a company does more and more interviews, the best people drop out, Mr. Safferstone said. “Another theory is that if an organization needs to do six, seven or eight interviews, there might be a large question about that person or about the position.”
Even though economic times have changed since the information was collected, Mr. Safferstone said he believed that the findings would be similar today.
There are other reasons the hiring process may drag on and on. Human resource departments have often been downsized, so there are fewer people available to do all the work involved in getting someone new on board, said Karen Danziger, managing partner at the Howard-Sloan-Koller Group, an executive recruiting company.
Also, the concept of fit — not only must the person be able to do the job but her personality, priorities and work style must complement the workplace — has become more and more important, Ms. Danziger said. Having a potential employee meet as many people in as many departments as possible is a way to try to ensure that the fit is good.
But even if there are substantive reasons for companies to take so long to decide, many job hunters ask why so many employers interview them once, twice or more — and then never get back in touch. And for that question, no one had a good answer.
Rejection, whatever form it comes in, is always hard to take. But those who have successfully navigated the process say that as difficult as it is, you should try not to take it personally. And more important, don’t stop looking for a job until you have that signed contract in hand.
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051dd2d239b60c51b77a885740b163b6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/11/yoshikami-earnings-estimates-are-merely-guesses.html | Yoshikami: Earnings Estimates are Merely Guesses | Yoshikami: Earnings Estimates are Merely Guesses
It's earnings season again and time to assess the efforts corporations are making in dealing with the great recession of 2009. Investors and analysts alike have predictions about who will win and lose in this earnings season.
But as you keep score, it's important to have a healthy dose of cynicism; earnings estimates are merely guesses. Measured guesses, but still just educated speculations about the past and future.
Stock chart
An estimate is really just an analyst's projections about corporate financial health and the predictions often vary significantly. Estimates are influenced by company philosophy, individual analysts perspectives, psychological baggage from being wrong in the past, and the desire by most to stay fairly close to consensus numbers (being much different on your numbers carries a risk).
The truth is, despite efforts to the contrary, earnings projections are invariably tainted with a degree of bias and subjectivity; they are not perfectly objective.
To assume these numbers are wise and accurate without carefully assessing the context in which these decisions are made would be a mistake. But thats exactly what most investors do.This is not to say that analysts estimates are not a valuable tool in assessing the attractiveness of investment; they are an important component of the decision process.
And in the end, prices of assets are measured based on current and future cash flow. Estimates come from professionals doing their best to be objective and are helpful in assessing the cash flow outlook for companies.
That effort should be respected (and cautiously digested) as long as one recognizes that there are no perfect outcomes; bias always exists.
So as an investor, carefully think through the philosophy underpinning recommendations and projections. Don't optimistically trust without thoughtful reflection.
Ronald Reagan once said about the then Soviet Union, that he was willing to "trust" but only with simultaneous verification The former president knew that it was important to be academic in perspective, hopeful in expectations, and to avoid trusting blindly.
Take the same advice as you watch earnings season this quarter. It will help you make sense of the numbers, the market's reaction, and what your next moves should be as an investor.
Trust but verify; a healthy perspective and one that can benefit you as an investor.___________________
Michael A. Yoshikami, Ph.D., CFP®, is Founder, President, and Chief Investment Strategist of YCMNET Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisory firm (www.ycmnet.com). He oversees all investment and research activities of YCMNET. He is a respected lecturer speaking frequently on market issues, tactical asset allocation, and investment strategy. Michael and YCMNET were ranked as one of the top investment 100 advisors in the United States for 2009 by Barrons. He appears regularly on CNBC and CNBC Asia and can be reached directly at m@ycmnet.com.
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8f08702a6e2fed18100e0b7a1939c958 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/5-energy-picks-from-a-5star-portfolio-manager.html | 5 Energy Picks From a 5-Star Portfolio Manager | 5 Energy Picks From a 5-Star Portfolio Manager
Oil and gas drillers are the most attractive subsectors within the energy industry now, said Derek Rollingson, portfolio manager at ICON Equity Funds.
VIDEO0:0000:00Investing in Energy
He shared his top five stock recommendations.
“The price range of oil since June has been pretty steady, so you have increase in reserves based on discoveries and in technical developments,” Rollingson told CNBC.
“But that’s been offset partially by the decline in the dollar."
CNBC Data Pages:
Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Where's the US Dollar Today?
Rollingson said he expects energy to be stuck in the current trading range for a while.
Rollingson’s Energy Picks:
Atwood Oceanics
Diamond Offshore Drilling
Pride International
Massey Energy
Occidental Petroleum
More Market Intelligence:
Oil, NatGas Outlook from The Schork ReportWhy Stocks and Treasurys Are Rising at Same Time
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
Which Oil Nations Make Money?
______________________________
______________________________ Disclosure:
Rollingson owns ATW, DO, PDE, MEE and OXY via owning his fund.
Disclaimer
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c9c7ea8bac8e21a2f348405629699e84 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/an-increase-in-advertising-optimism-for-media-giants.html | An Increase in Advertising Optimism for Media Giants | An Increase in Advertising Optimism for Media Giants
As we await the media giants’ third quarter earnings, some optimistic signs are emerging that the ad markets may be about to turn around. Double-digit declines in ad spending across the board has particularly slammed companies like CBS, which relies on ads for more than two thirds of its revenue, and dragged down the results at ABC and NBC. Now we're getting some strong signs that the worst is behind us. We'll be listening carefully to hear what the CEOs of the media giants say in their post-earnings conference calls.
US Recession Over: NABE
UBS analyst Michael Morris released a report this morning predicting that the 1.1 percent increase in September same-store sales will encourage retailers to increase their advertising spend to "compete for share of still shaky demand." The fact that this is the first time the index has shown year-over-year growth in 13 months should raise a flag for advertisers that this is a real reversal of the downward trend. Morris points out that retail advertising accounted for 14 percent of all ad spend last year, and that as consumer spending returns, advertisers who pulled back will be encouraged to invest again.
But hold your horses, we're not talking about a full recovery: Morris says he expects only 45 percent of the US TV advertising lost during the 2007 to 2009 downturn to be recovered in 2010. The TV networks will still be the go-to destination for reaching a mass audience, but advertisers will continue diverting their funds to the more focused audience on cable, and of course, to truly targeted and measurable ads on the Internet.
Singer's Battle: Carly Simon Sues Her Label
A new report on marketing - the IPA/BDO Bellwether survey shows that the quarter-over-quarter decline in marketing spend was the smallest in more than a year. Tracking spending on marketing by 300 companies, the survey did show that spending slowed for an eight consecutive quarter, but the fact that the *rate* is slowing indicates that we're near or at a bottom. Spending on Internet advertising rose for the first time since the first half of 2008 and traditional media advertising saw the smallest reduction in six quarters. The numbers show that marketers are wary of un-measurable investments - the amount they spent on pr, sponsorship and events, suffered the steepest drop.
Why Marketing Does a Terrible Job of Marketing Itself
Another headline pointing to a future recovery comes from General Motors: the embattled automaker says is looking for a new ad agency to try to rev up its Cadillac brand. A new ad agency promises a new ad campaign, which should mean a big infusion of cash into the TV networks and glossy magazines where Caddy ads usually run. Last year the Cadillac brand spent some $270 million on ads in the US, but during the first six months of the year the brand spent just $81 million. Now the hope is that a new campaign will bring spending back to previous levels.
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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c971e74d96b7e4737c68947490eec350 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/as-chinas-economy-grows-so-do-mounds-of-garbage.html | As China's Economy Grows, So Do Mounds of Garbage | As China's Economy Grows, So Do Mounds of Garbage
Visitors can smell this village long before they see it.
More than 100 dump trucks piled high with garbage line the narrow road leading to Zhanglidong, waiting to empty their loads in a landfill as big as 20 football fields.
In less than five years, the Zhengzhou Comprehensive Waste Treatment Landfill has overwhelmed this otherwise pristine village of about 1,000 people. Peaches and cherries rot on trees, infested with insect life drawn by the smell. Fields lie unharvested, contaminated by toxic muck. Every day, another 100 or so tons of garbage arrive from nearby Zhengzhou, a provincial capital of 8 million.
"Life here went from heaven to hell in an instant," says lifelong resident Wang Xiuhua, swatting away clouds of mosquitoes and flies. The 78-year-old woman suddenly coughs uncontrollably and says the landfill gases inflame her bronchitis.
As more Chinese ride the nation's economic boom, a torrent of garbage is one result. Cities are bursting at the seams, and their officials struggle to cope. The amount of paper, plastic and other garbage has more than tripled in two decades to about 300 million tons a year, according to Nie Yongfeng, a waste management expert at Beijing's Tsinghua University.
Americans are still way ahead of China in garbage; a population less than a quarter the size of China's 1.3 billion generated 254 million tons of garbage in 2007, a third of which is recycled or composted, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
But for China, the problem represents a rapid turnabout from a generation ago, when families, then largely rural and poor, used and reused everything. "Trash was never complicated before, because we didn't have supermarkets, we didn't have fancy packaging and endless things to buy," said Nie. "Now suddenly, the government is panicking about the mountains of garbage piling up with no place to put it all."
In Zhanglidong, villagers engage in shouting matches with drivers and sometimes try to bodily block their garbage trucks coming from Zhengzhou, 20 miles away.
Chinese workers piling up garbage.AP
"Zhengzhou is spotless because their trash is dumped into our village," says Li Qiaohong, who blames it for her 5-year-old son's eczema.
Li's family is one of a few who live within 100 meters (300 feet) of the landfill, separated from it by a fence. These families get 100 yuan ($15) a month in government compensation.
The dump has poisoned not just the air and ground, but relationships. Villagers say they were never consulted, and suspect their Communist Party officials were paid to accept the landfill.
In China, especially in rural regions, there is often no recourse once local officials make a decision. The villagers say not only were their petitions ignored, but they were warned by the Zhengzhou police to stop protesting or face punishment.
"We villagers were too naive ... we didn't know what a landfill was," said Li. "If we had known earlier about all the pollution it would cause, we would had done everything possible to stop the construction process. Now it's too late."
Elsewhere, thousands of farmers in the central province of Hubei clashed with police last year over illegal dumping near their homes. A person filming the clash died after being beaten by police.
Protests in cities are driving trash to the countryside.
Residents in central Beijing swarmed the offices of the Ministry of Environment last year, protesting the stench from a landfill and plans for a new incinerator there. In July, officials scrapped the incinerator plan and closed the landfill four years early.
In eastern Beijing, local officials invested millions of dollars to make the Gao An Tun landfill and incinerator one of a handful in China to meet global health standards. That was after 200,000 residents petitioned for a year about the smell.
"Our standard of living is improving, so it's natural that more and more of us begin to fight for a better quality of life," says Zhang Jianhua, 67, one of the petitioners.
"Widespread media coverage embarrassed the local government, so they finally decided to take action," she says.
After millennia as a farming society, China expects to be majority urban in five years.
Busy families are shifting from fresh to packaged foods, consumption of which rose 10.8 percent a year from 2000 to 2008, well above the 4.2 percent average in Asia, according to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. By 2013, the packaged-food market is expected to reach $195 billion, up 74 percent from last year.
At least 85 percent of China's seven billion tons of trash is in landfills, much of it in unlicensed dumps in the countryside. Most have only thin linings of plastic or fiberglass. Rain drips heavy metals, ammonia, and bacteria into the groundwater and soil, and the decomposing stew sends out methane and carbon dioxide.
Regulations allow incinerators to emit 10 times the level of dioxins permitted in the U.S., and these release cancer-causing dioxins and other poisons, according to a Chinese government study.
Shanghai SkylineAP
"If the government doesn't step up efforts to solve our garbage woes, China will likely face an impending health crisis in the coming decade," warns Liu Yangsheng, an expert in waste management at Peking University.
In Zhanglidong, resident Zheng Dongxiao says the village's only water well is polluted and causing chronic ulcers.
Wang Ling, a spokesman for the Zhengzhou Ministry of Environment, said the landfill has a polyethylene liner to protect the ground beneath. "Test results of the local soil, water, and air quality, in 2006 and this year, showed that everything was in line with national standards," he told The Associated Press.
Residents say the liner has tears and only covers a fraction of the landfill.
The government knows its garbage disposal will always draw complaints, says Liu. "What they need to do is invest more money into building and maintaining better plants."
That remains a tall order in a country bent on growth, where economic planners hold more sway than environmental regulators and are loath to spend scarce funds on waste management.
Track World Market Indexes Here
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6ceb9381f4c0663c957d1d4ae4ac2939 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/big-banks-looking-good-regionals-to-take-hit-bove.html | Big Banks Looking Good, Regionals to Take Hit: Bove | Big Banks Looking Good, Regionals to Take Hit: Bove
Strong trading activity will help the big banks post handsome profits in the coming quarters while their smaller counterparts will continue to languish, banking analyst Dick Bove told CNBC.
Bank
Commercial real estate damage and the need to build reserves will cause about 60 percent of regional banks to post losses, the Rochdale Securities analyst said in a live interview.
"They're under-reserved, so you're going to see a big jump in reserves," Bove said.
Conversely, strong activity in fixed income and capital markets will boost some of Wall Street's biggest names.
"We're seeing a widening of the activity in the fixed-income market, particularly with issuance by new ... offerings," Bove said. "Where you should put your money from my perspective is Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley."
In addition to Goldman and Morgan Stanley he also said JPMorgan Chase will benefit from strong trading even though its traditional banking side has suffered losses. He also mentioned Lazard and State Street.
Bove also reiterated positive statements about Bank of America . While the company still faces some losses, investors should look forward on BofA, which he said he expects to see losses reduced dramatically in the coming years.
VIDEO0:0000:00More Banks for Your Buck
At the same time, he cautioned that troubles at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp will eat into all banking earnings, but particularly the bigger names that will have to increase their premium payments. FDIC premiums could consume as much as 25 percent of bank earnings, Bove said.
He also addressed the lack of bank lending, saying institutions are stockpiling money received through the government's Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility program. Banks have put most of the TALF money in the Federal Reserve "until they know what the political landscape" is going to be for their operations.
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bb611b188b81a5e079dfa6bc9037afb2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/big-financials-will-keep-losing-money-experts.html | Big Financials Will Keep Losing Money: Experts | Big Financials Will Keep Losing Money: Experts
Large financial companies face a busy week of earnings. So what kind of results should investors be expecting? Christopher Whalen, senior vice president and managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics, and Paul Miller, group head of financial services at FBR Capital Markets, shared their insights.
VIDEO0:0000:00Financials Earnings Parade
“What people are going to be looking for is early-stage delinquencies and non-reforming assets,” Miller told CNBC.
“People want to see early stages of delinquencies and if we’re going to see stabilizations on the credit front…Most companies will lose money this quarter including some of these big guys.”
CNBC Data Pages:
Track the DJ Financial Services Index Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Where's the US Dollar Today?
Whalen said credit is going to be a large factor.
“I don’t expect to see the charge-offs climbing the way it has been earlier this year but it’s going to climb,” he said.
“And my worry is that the third quarter is going to look relatively good…but overall, the industry is still losing money and we still see the effect of subsidies in the top six names."
Whalen said revenue and the other factors that enhance earnings numbers may not be sustained as banks head into 2010.
More Market Intelligence:
Yoshikami: Earnings Estimates — What You Should KnowArt Cashin: Today's Market Outlook (video)
“Most companies [excluding JPMorgan] have been putting a smiley face on, in part, because they haven’t had to 'fess up to certain future issues like off-balance sheet exposures,” he said.
“But Bank of America and Wells Fargo have trillions of dollars worth of off-balance sheet vehicles.”
COUNTERPOINT:
Big Banks Look Good, Regionals to Take Hit: Dick Bove
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
The World's Best Banks 2009
______________________________
______________________________Big Financials Reporting Earnings This Week:
JPMorgan
Goldman Sachs
Citigroup
Bank of America
______________________________ Disclosure:
Miller does not own any shares of Bank of America.
No immediate information was available for Whalen or his firm.
______________________________
Disclaimer
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447c2990f62bdc8dea70e161ec5aead5 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/chadwick-killing-citigroups-goose-that-laid-the-golden-egg.html | Chadwick: Killing Citigroup's Goose That Laid the Golden Egg | Chadwick: Killing Citigroup's Goose That Laid the Golden Egg
I was flummoxed, bowled over and plain stupefied as I read the article by Eric Dash and Jack Healy on the front page of the business section of the New York Times this past Saturday. On the surface, the story simply defies belief.
Beleaguered Citigroup has been forced to execute a fire sale of its prize-winning entity, Phibro, because the Federal Government’s ‘pay czar’, Kenneth Feinberg, has ruled that the compensation contract with top level employees at Phibro “promoted excessive risk-taking and ran counter to the public interest”. (A quote from the article.)
Okay, I accept the fact that the Federal Government, as the largest shareholder of Citigroup with a 34% equity ownership, can use its muscle. But why use its muscle in a way that only harms its own very large equity investment?
Slideshow: The World's Best Banks 2009
I could understand Czar Feinberg’s edict if Phibro were some ordinary subsidiary, making ordinary money and paying out extraordinary bonuses to a vast array of minions regardless of their contribution of Phibro to Citigroup’s profits. But Phibro has been anything but ordinary. In fact it has been a beacon of success in an otherwise sea of disaster for Citigroup, and the enormous compensation of the rainmakers at Phibro has been tied directly to the profits they have reaped for shareholders.
The success of Phibro has not been a ‘one off’ event. Since its acquisition by Citigroup in 1997, Phibro has been profitable each year, and (according to the article) generated an average of $371 million in pretax earnings for each of the last five years. That is a total of $1.855 billion of profit for shareholders!! Contrast that with the $27.7 billion loss that Citigroup recorded in 2008.
Slideshow: Which Oil Producers Are Making Money?
Somehow if I were a 34% shareholder of Citigroup, I would have done everything in my power to hold on to a subsidiary that made real, solid income year after year. Given the still desperate shape of the mortgage industry and consumer finances, Citigroup can ill afford to lose money making businesses. And it can even less afford to essentially give away highly profitable assets. Occidental Petroleum Corp. paid just $250 million (according to its own spokesperson) for an entity that has generated $1.855 billion of income before taxes over the last five years. I would have loved to have had a chance to bid on Phibro (except that I don’t have the $250 million to spend).
I never thought Government was particularly good at understanding how the private sector works. But I did think that at least it had learned basic fourth grade arithmetic. That’s why I was so flummoxed on Saturday.
I have to wonder how Citigroup will be a serious competitor in the dog-eat-dog world of finance in the years ahead. How can it feel to be the chief executive officer at Citigroup, when your executive powers are usurped by a Federal Government employee? With powerhouses like Goldman Sachs raking in the profits during this time of chaos, I simply don’t know how Citigroup can be a player in the long run.
But what is of even greater concern is the idea that if the Federal Government can determine what level of income is too high and what degree of risk taking is too great in one industry, it can do so in another.
It seems evident that despite a major equity investment with our taxes into a major company, the Federal Government does not grasp the essence of return on investment. This is a problem for Citigroup today and it could turn into a problem for the entire U.S. economy in the future.
What other CNBC Contributors are Saying ...
______________________________________
Patricia W. Chadwick has had more than 35 years of investment experience. She is the founder and president of Ravengate Partners LLC, a consulting firm that provides advice on financial markets and global economics.
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75cdb6ef27abf7797cfbd729a5144864 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/clinton-brushes-off-nkorea-missile-launch-reports.html | Clinton Brushes off N.Korea Missile Launch Reports | Clinton Brushes off N.Korea Missile Launch Reports
The United States will continue working for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula regardless of reports that North Korea launched missiles on Monday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)Charlie Neibergall
The United States and its allies were trying to demonstrate to North Korea that the international community would not accept its continuing nuclear program, she said.
"Our goals remain the same. We intend to work toward a nuclear free Korean peninsula," Clinton told a news conference in Belfast. "Our consultation with our partners and allies continues unabated. It is unaffected by the behavior of North Korea."
Earlier, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government source as saying that Pyongyang had fired five short-range missiles off its east coast and declared a "no sail" zone in the area from Oct. 10-20. South Korean government officials were not immediately available for comment.
The latest launches, the first in about three months, come as Pyongyang has said it is ready to return to international talks on its nuclear weapons program, though it has insisted it holds talks first with the United States.
"We have made a lot of progress with the other members of the six party talks who joined us in the very strong sanctions against North Korea and who have been working with us to restart a process there," Clinton said.
Slideshow: Countries with The Most Foreign Direct Investment
"We pursue this goal like we pursue all of our national security goals: through obstacles, overcoming challenges, a persistent patience that ... doesn't have any guarantee of outcome but is a very important way of us building a coalition and creating the space to try to demonstrate clearly to the North Koreans that the international community will not accept their continuing nuclear program."
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630e092dac30ad5ff719cafc8103c217 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/cnbc-checkerboard-programming-for-the-week-of-october-26th-all-times-are-et.html | CNBC Checkerboard Programming For The Week Of October 26th (ALL TIMES ARE ET) | CNBC Checkerboard Programming For The Week Of October 26th (ALL TIMES ARE ET)
Mon, 10/26:
8PM --Biography on CNBC #1 - Ray Kroc
9PM & 12AM -- The New Age of Walmart
10PM & 1AM-- The Entrepreneurs #2
Tue, 10/27:
8PM -- Biography on CNBC #2 - Sam Walton
9PM & 1AM -- Executive Vision #5
10PM & 12AM -- Marijuana Inc: Inside America's Pot Industry
Wed, 10/28
8PM -- Biography on CNBC #3 - Enzo Ferrari
9PM & 12AM -- American Greed #17
10PM & 1AM -- American Greed #18
Thu, 10/29
8PM -- Biography on CNBC #5 - Home Depot
9PM & 12AM -- The Money Chase: Inside Harvard Business School
10PM & 1AM --
Fri, 10/30:
10PM & 1AM -- American Greed #19About CNBC:CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 340 million homes worldwide, including more than 95 million households in the United States and Canada. The network's Business Day programming (weekdays from 5:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and also includes reports from CNBC news bureaus worldwide. Additionally, CNBC viewers can manage their individual investment portfolios and gain additional in-depth information from on-air reports by accessing http://www.cnbc.com.Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBC Universal Media Village Web site at http://nbcumv.com/cnbc/.
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78b13fecf5f2f43147d93ad9244b0e2c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/cnbcs-worldwide-exchange-schedule-during-standard-time-transition.html | CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" Schedule During Standard Time Transition | CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" Schedule During Standard Time Transition
Europe returns to standard time on October 25th, one week prior to the US schedule. During this transition, the US will only carry one hour (5AM-6AM ET) of "Worldwide Exchange." The following programming replaces the 4AM-5AM ET hour:
Sunday, 10/25: The NEW Age of Walmart
Monday, 10/26: Fast Money
Tuesday, 10/27: Fast Money
Wednesday, 10/28: Fast Money
Thursday, 10/29: Fast MoneyAbout CNBC:CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 340 million homes worldwide, including more than 95 million households in the United States and Canada. The network's Business Day programming (weekdays from 5:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and also includes reports from CNBC news bureaus worldwide. Additionally, CNBC viewers can manage their individual investment portfolios and gain additional in-depth information from on-air reports by accessing http://www.cnbc.com.Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBC Universal Media Village Web site at http://nbcumv.com/cnbc/.
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50a9b83f96603565de7c4f8292615149 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/cramer-here-comes-an-oil-boom.html | “I see the drilling revolution coming,” Cramer said during Monday’s Stop Trading!.
The Mad Money host has been watching the Baker Hughes rig index surge back above 1,000, he said, and “it wouldn’t shock me” if a company like National Oilwell Varco started getting new rig orders. The recent rise in these stocks seems to indicate “a new oil boom” is on the way.
Cramer's 15 Rules for Playing Defense
“And it’s not based on $140 oil,” Cramer said. “It’s based on the fact that there are big reserves that have been untapped.”
In earnings-related news, Cramer pointed to Black & Decker’s increased third-quarter guidance. He said Fortune Brands and Whirlpool , which are very similar companies, could generate the same kind of numbers. All of these firms have good international exposure and they’ve instituted big restructuring plans to bring down costs. But there was top line growth as well at BDK, and we could see the same from FO and WHR.
Cramer also said that his charitable trust increased its Home Depot holdings as a result of Black & Decker’s announcement, calling HD a “natural” play on hardware sales.
IBM might be too cheap, Cramer said. He admitted that the stock has enjoyed a good run up to $90, but on a longer-term chart IBM has barely moved.
“This stock has literally done nothing,” Cramer said, “even as the company’s gotten better and better.”
Cramer urged investors to look at Ford , whose stock has languished after a jump to about $8 after a secondary offering at $4 and change. The company saw double-digit gains in Europe, lost only single digits in the US and has great leadership in CEO Alan Mulally. Cramer has liked the preferred shares, but the common looks to be making a comeback.
“I don’t know why people aren’t saying that Ford is going to be the world’s greatest auto company,” Cramer said.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
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Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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a623a8e527b74f78113da6120cb164d8 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/cramers-book-tour.html | Cramer's newest book Getting Back to Even: Your Personal Economic Recovery Plan is in stores. Buy your copy right here.
If you live in the area, then swing by one of these locations to hear Cramer talk stocks and get your book signed. Don't see your favorite tome seller? Bookmark this page, because we'll be adding more dates soon!Tuesday, Dec. 15, 7:30PM
Borders1260 Old Country Rd.Westbury, N.Y.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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15e19180707022d275be2d7764eca9ee | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/earnings-roundup-oct-12.html | Earnings Roundup: Oct. 12 | Earnings Roundup: Oct. 12
What follows is a roundup of corporate earnings reports for Monday, Oct. 12.
BEFORE THE BELL
Fastenal
The industrial and construction supply company reported earnings of 32 cents per share for its third quarter. The company also posted revenue of $489.3 million.
Get Real Time Quotes for Fastenal
Q3 Earnings Preview: Top Expectations for Growth
*Earnings data based off of Thomson Reuters
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f5d13d13b0a1b4afe34f25bc045462b1 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/expect-very-strong-35-growth-by-yearend-economist.html | Expect 'Very Strong' 3-5% Growth by Year-End: Economist | Expect 'Very Strong' 3-5% Growth by Year-End: Economist
The Dow crossed the 9,900 mark on Monday and investors are wondering what the shape of the recovery will look like—will it be a V or a W? Wayne Angell, principal at Angell Economics and former Federal Reserve governor, and Brian Bethune, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, shared their market insights.
VIDEO0:0000:00Recovery: V or W-Shaped?
“It’s a V and very strong growth,” Angell told CNBC. “The growth is going to be a minimum of 3 percent and a maximum of 5 percent" between the third and fourth quarters.
“Monetary policy is extremely accommodative and that means we have accelerating inflation of commodity prices and that goes on down the production curve, and that means that corporate profits are going to be enormous,” he added.
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
Angell said the 5 percent ceiling is a result of employment growth that will be “practically non-existent.”
In the meantime, Bethune expects a “soft W-shape” recovery due to fiscal stimulus programs that will eventually lose steam.
Take Our Poll: When Will the Dow Cross 10,000?
“We’re going to get a strong growth in the third quarter of 3.6 percent but then as we get into the fourth quarter, down to 2.5 and for the first half of 2010, sub 2 percent before we pick up again,” he said.
Bethune said the constrained small-business sector is a large reason for the high unemployment rate.
More Market Intelligence:
Big Financials Will Keep Losing Money: ExpertsArt Cashin's Warning: Market Is a 'Tainted' BanquetEarnings ESP—Who's Gonna Beat?
“It’s a sector that’s being hemmed in and if we can’t revitalize the small business sector, then we’re not going to get the job growth,” he said. “So it’s a sector that does need some attention in terms of dealing with the current situation and trying to incentivize small business to be more dynamic, to invest and hire new people.”
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Citigroup
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Disclosure:
No immediate information was available for Angell or Bethune.
______________________________
Disclaimer
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d732913b8980db4ef74d0409f66e9f36 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/fich-do-unscheduled-options-to-ceos-during-merger-talks-create-perverse-incentives.html | Fich: Do Unscheduled Options to CEOs During Merger Talks Create Perverse Incentives? | Fich: Do Unscheduled Options to CEOs During Merger Talks Create Perverse Incentives?
Today’s front page article in the Wall Street Journalreports that many firms grant unscheduled option grants to their CEO’s while negotiating their own acquisition. The article, which refers to my research paper titled: Stock Option Grants to Target CEOs during Private Merger Negotiations (co-authored with Jie Cai and Anh Tran), cites recent examples in which CEOs of target firms have ripped millions from this practice.
Consider for example the case of Omniture , an acquisition target of Adobe Systems . Merger talks between these firms began on March 31, 2009. On June 15, 2009 Omniture re-priced old options its CEO held. But the CEO had already received scheduled option on 2/27, so the timing of the June award is puzzling. Moreover, since the merger offer price was $21.50 and the old exercise price (for the re-priced options) was $18.23, the CEO could have made $3.27 per share (or about $2 million on the original award) if the award was never re-priced. Instead, re-pricing the options to $12.99 more than doubled these profits to well over $5 million.
In another case involving Hewlett-Packard and EDS, a proxy filed by Hewlett-Packard detailing its acquisition of EDS reads:
“On November 5, 2007, Mr. Rittenmeyer and another member of our senior management met with Mark Hurd, the chairman, chief executive officer and president of HP, and other members of HP management to discuss, among other things, our purchase and use of HP’s hardware and software products. At this meeting, in addition to discussing these matters, Messrs. Rittenmeyer and Hurd discussed consolidation in the IT services industry. Specifically, Mr. Rittenmeyer expressed an interest in possibly pursuing a transaction in which we would acquire the IT services business of HP. Based on this preliminary discussion, Messrs. Rittenmeyer and Hurd agreed that further consideration of such a transaction was warranted. On November 13, 2007, Mr. Rittenmeyer communicated with the chairpersons of each of the three standing committees of our board of directors regarding his meeting with Mr. Hurd.”
On February 13, 2008, Mr. Rittenmeyer received an unscheduled option award for 2 million shares from EDS with an exercise price of $18.30. A merger between the two companies was announced on May 13, 2008 with an offer price from HP of $25.00 per EDS share. Mr. Rittenmeyer’s profit: over $13 million. It should be noted that the size of the February award significantly exceeds Mr. Rittenmeyer’s two previous annual awards. Please see table and graph below.
The issue is whether the unscheduled options align the incentives of target CEOs and target shareholders or whether these awards create perverse incentives.
On the one hand, CEOs expected to remain in office for several years if their firms were not sold might oppose a deal. Consequently, the awards might induce these executives to sell their firms. This might benefit target shareholders, particularly those in hard-to-sell firms. Our paper shows that the expected present value of lost compensation experienced by target CEOs (if their firms were sold) correlates with the likelihood that these executives get pre-merger unscheduled options.
Best American CEOs of All Time
On the other hand, because change-in-control agreements (common to many executive compensation contracts) are only triggered if the firm is sold, CEOs might hurry to sale their firms. In the latter case, such scuttle might cause lower than expected takeover bids and harm the wealth of target shareholders.
In our paper, we document that when CEOs receive unscheduled options during merger negotiations their firms receive lower than expected takeover bids. To put this result in context, we find that target firm value drops about $54 for every unscheduled option dollar their CEO gets. This finding suggests that unscheduled options to target CEOs while merger negotiations are underway can have perverse incentives.
Is this activity legal?
As mentioned in my previous article for CNBC.com, option grants are neither a sale nor a purchase of securities as defined in the 1934 Securities Act. Consequently, granting unscheduled option awards while merger talks are underway may escape legal liability under current insider trading laws. Specifically, (Sections 16(b) and 10(b)) of the 1934 Securities Act proscribe the purchasing or selling of a security by any person while in possession of material, nonpublic information.
Portfolio's Worst American CEOs of All Time
There is also the issue of equal shareholder treatment during a merger. Rule 14d-10 of the 1934 Securities Act proscribes “bidders from making a tender offer unless the consideration paid to any security holder pursuant to the tender offer is the highest consideration paid to any other security holder during such tender offer.” While this rule appears to be simple in concept, courts have wrestled on how to interpret it in the context of a variety of compensation arrangements of top executives of target companies, since CEOs and other top managers are often shareholders as well. Put simply, because of the last minute options CEOs are doing better than other target shareholders. Amazingly, on October 18, 2006, the SEC adopted amendments to Rule 14d-10(a)(2) which provide a safe harbor enabling the compensation committee of a target's board of directors to provide employment compensation, severance or other employee benefit arrangements (including options) for its executives during a tender offer negotiation. Given this amendment, it is unlikely that the targets we identify in our paper and in this article violate Rule 14d-10 of the 1934 Act.
In sum, our research exposes non-trivial weaknesses in some securities laws that appear to encourage shareholder expropriation during acquisitions. It is our hope that these findings result in improved regulation aimed at increasing disclosure requirements during mergers with the goal of discouraging shareholder expropriation.
You can download the paper here.
_________________________Eliezer Fich is Associate Professor of Finance at Drexel University, Le Bow College of Business
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bcf81e6c2cfb319ba22be5ca98d1a49c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/first-on-cnbc-cnbc-media-alert-fdic-chairman-sheila-bair-on-cnbcs-squawk-box-tomorrow-tuesday-october-13th-at-840am-et.html | FIRST ON CNBC: CNBC MEDIA ALERT: FDIC CHAIRMAN SHEILA BAIR ON CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX" TOMORROW, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13TH AT 8:40AM ET | FIRST ON CNBC: CNBC MEDIA ALERT: FDIC CHAIRMAN SHEILA BAIR ON CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX" TOMORROW, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13TH AT 8:40AM ET
WHEN: TOMORROW, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13TH AT 8:40AM ET
WHERE: CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX"
In a FIRST ON CNBC interview, FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair will discuss financial regulation, consumer lending, the state of the financial crisis, failed banks and Citi's management, among other topics.About CNBC:CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 340 million homes worldwide, including more than 95 million households in the United States and Canada. The network's Business Day programming (weekdays from 5:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and also includes reports from CNBC news bureaus worldwide. Additionally, CNBC viewers can manage their individual investment portfolios and gain additional in-depth information from on-air reports by accessing http://www.cnbc.com.Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBC Universal Media Village Web site at http://nbcumv.com/cnbc/.
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5af312544d61c69fa0bda12f645895c4 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/getting-you-back-to-even.html | “The crash has occurred,” Cramer said during Monday’s Mad Money. “It’s over – let’s move on.”
Cramer's 15 Rules for Playing Defense
He was speaking directly to those doomsayers who are staring Dow 10,000 in the face yet still refuse to believe in a recovery. These are the people who advocate buying US Treasurys, which Cramer called “perhaps the most dangerous asset of all” right now, and passive index funds, even though those funds haven’t made shareholders any money in 10 years. They’re the same pundits who have missed the entire move since early March and can’t admit they’ve been wrong.
“Where is the contrition?” Cramer asked, saying that retail investors were owed an explanation.
VIDEO0:0000:00Getting Even
Cramer said it was really a matter of respect. As in, these pundits have none for Mad Money viewers. If they did, then they’d be urging the rest of us to actively manage our own portfolios so we could leave the depression/recession behind us and recoup our losses.
That’s what Cramer has been doing. That’s why he has been recommending dividend-paying stocks, recovery stocks, IPOs and secondary offerings. He wants to help you get back to even. Hence the title of his latest book. Even at Dow 9,885, there are still plenty of ways to make money – the mobile Internet and homeland security, to name a couple – and investors should take advantage of them, not sit idly by in investment vehicles that don’t work.
So what’s the bottom line?
Those telling you to avoid stocks either missed the bottom or rode the market all the way down there. Now they’re justifying their underperformance by saying the same is in store for you.
“Me?” Cramer said. “I know you deserve better.”
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
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0f0b281de969d8fe77de32df26312fb4 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/goldman-faces-pr-dilemma-over-huge-bonuses.html | Goldman Faces PR Dilemma Over Huge Bonuses | Goldman Faces PR Dilemma Over Huge Bonuses
Rival banks are eagerly awaiting this week's earnings announcement from Goldman Sachs not only for the third-quarter results but for how the firm deals with up to $20 billion in bonuses just a year after it received federal bailout money during the height of the financial crisis.
While most investment banks have returned to profitability after nearly two years of record losses, Wall Street is now facing a major public relations problem.
During good times, financial firms hand out a chunk of company earnings in the form of year-end bonuses, and because Goldman is now making more money than its rivals (its third quarter earnings are expected to top $2 billion), the spotlight is on how the firm will dole out the bonus bounty.
Investment banks at rival firms say they have been told by their counterparts at Goldman that the firm understands the public relations dilemma it faces in handing out huge bonuses to its bankers and traders only a year after needing federal assistance to survive.
Despite public statements from CEO Lloyd Blankfein that the firm will continue to pay its people despite the anti-Wall Street mood of the country, bankers at rival firms say based on their discussions with counterparts at Goldman, the firm is preparing to take a number of steps to lessen the public relations hit.
One way Goldman may be preparing to do that is to hand out the majority of the bonus money in company stock instead of cash, these bankers say.
Generally on Wall Street about 50 percent of a top executive's bonus comes in the form of stock; the stock composition for lower level executives is about 20 percent.
But that stock compensation is expected to be much higher for both classes, comprising the majority of the bonus award at Goldman, these people say.
While the increased stock award was largely expected, Goldman is also expected to do something unusual regarding charity, possibly, according to bankers at rival firms, making a massive charitable contribution out of the bonus money.
Investment bankers are often encouraged to make significant charitable contributions, if Goldman makes such a payment, it would be the first time any major firm diverted its bonus-pool money specifically to charity.
LLoyd Blankfein testifying before House Financial Services CommitteeCNBC.com
Goldman spokesman Lucas Van Praag said Sunday that bonuses will be paid out at the end of the year, so no firm decisions have been made about their composition.
Van Praag, however, wouldn't deny that senior executives at the firm are discussing bonuses—including an increased portion being paid in stock and more of the money devoted to charity.
Another way Goldman is looking to deal with the image issue is to have Blankfein, normally one of the more reticent CEOs on Wall Street, increase his public profile and give selective interviews.
The aim would be to dispel the growing belief in the media that the firm, with its vast network of former partners working throughout government—former Goldman chairmen Robert Rubin and Hank Paulson were US Treasury secretaries—doesn't get preferential treatment from the government as it enriches its senior executives.
Goldman received $10 billion of federal bailout money last year. But more significantly, Goldman benefited from the government's bailout of troubled insurer AIG because it held insurance contracts on debt that were made good once AIG was saved.
On top of that, Goldman was able to be classified as a commercial bank, even though it doesn't hold substantial amounts of deposits from consumers.
Because of that status, Goldman can borrow from the Federal Reserve's discount window, and more cheaply in the private markets to finance its trades, particularly in the fixed income market, one of the major drivers of its earnings.
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5b4f77eb578dcc413b0d8de6694f8fb2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/halftime-report-does-dow-10000-really-matter.html | The Dow hit new 2009 highs Monday with energy names driving advances after a weaker dollar pushed oil and other commodities prices higher.
Bullish momentum also stems from growing belief that the Dow could soon break above the psychologically important 10,000 level, especially if earnings continue to be stronger than expected.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Halftime Report
Should you be tracking Dow 10,000 as you trade?Forget 10,000. Greg Troccoli of Opalesque tells Fast Money that as a technician he’s looking at 9918 as key level on the Dow. If we can close above 9918 for the week then we are set to go 300+ points higher; Dow 10,300.
It seems there are a lot of techincals that are critical this week, adds Joe Terranova. I want to see the S&P futures on Friday settle above 1075. And I want to see the Dow settle above 10,000. But we need Friday confirmation.
Elsewhere in the market, Transports surged higher on Monday, adds OptionMonster Jon Najarian. I’m seeing unusual activity in YRCW, he adds. That's probably because they’ve been able to kick the can down the road and carry debt on their books for a longer period of time before any forced liquidation. But the railroads aren’t in the same position. They’re doing wonderfully and I think the recovery plays into what they do best. I’m a buyer of NorfolkSouthern and CSX ahead of earnings.
If you’re playing this market, I’d also buy puts, says Brian Stutland of Stutland Equities. Volatility is cheap right now. However Vix futures suggest volatility could spike through the end of the year.
I don’t think it’s any surprise that energy as well as tech are both driving stocks, muses Zach Karabell. That’s where we’ve had strength and I think we continue to see it through the end of the year.
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OIL SURGING TOWARDS $74
Oil jumped more than 2 percent on Monday to touch a six-week high on optimism about the pace of global economic recovery and as cold weather across the United States boosted fuel demand.
"Stunning records for cold were set across the nation, increasing the demand for heating fuels over the weekend," explains Phil Flynn, analyst for PFGBest Research.
What’s the oil trade?I think crude oil could have a potential break out over the next 10 days, says Joe Terranova. I think the timing is right. I’d bet oil goes above $75.
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GOOGLE LEADING TECH HIGHER
On Nasdaq, Google shot higher after several analysts raised their price targets ahead of Google's third-quarter results due this week.
Google's business is strong, and its stock is even stronger, says a Thomas Weisel analyst who raised the company's price target to $620 Monday.
What’s the tech trade?
There’s a lot of optimism about Google in this market but remember that CEO Eric Schmidt said the worst is behind us and he’s hiring. I think optimism continues and we continue to see Google and broad tech move higher.
I think it’s phenomenal that Google has gotten above pre-Lehman levels, says Joe Terranova . I think Google challenges $600 before the end of the year and I think Apple goes above $200.
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BLACK & DECKER LEADING CONSUMER NAMES HIGHER
Black & Decker led consumer names higher on Monday after the power tools maker raised its third-quarter earnings outlook ahead of series of blue chip earnings reports this week.
What’s the trade?It’s a sales driven pop out of Black & Decker, explains Jon Najarian. The fact that sales are up this much – that’s huge news. That’s what investors want to hear -- strength from sales and not just cost cutting.
In the space I’m watching Amazon, adds Zach Karabell.
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CALL THE CLOSE
Joe Terranova: I’m a buyer. Don’t fight the momentum.
Jon Najarian: I’m a buyer
Zach Karabell: I’m a buyer.
Brian Stutland: Considering it’s an expiration week for options, I’m a buyer.
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .Trader disclosure: On October 12, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MGM), (MSFT), (BX), (POT); Seymour Owns Shares Of Gazprom; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Call Spreads, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (MSFT), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM), (PLCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Terranova Owns (JPM), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS)For JoeTerranova:Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA) For Craig BergerFBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ONNN)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (BRCM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (NVDA)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MRVL)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LLTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MXIM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATML)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LSI)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (SLAB)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MSCC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (QCOM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATHR)For David TroneFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (GS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (MS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (JPM) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Next 3 Months
For Christa QuarlesThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Managed Or Co-Managed A Public Offering Of Securities For (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (GOOG) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Investment Banking Services To (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (YHOO) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services To And/Or Has Agreed To Provide Services Or Has A Client Relationship With (YHOO)
CNBC.com with wires
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149ef6bdfb9e1e8148257ff8ac8b25f0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/highest-dividend-yields-of-the-dow.html | Highest Dividend Yields of the Dow | Highest Dividend Yields of the Dow
Two and a half months away from the end of the year and the average dividend yield of the Dow 30 has continued to fall since the market lows back in March. At the end of 2008, the average yield on the Dow was 3.9%. By the market lows of early March, that number rose to ~4.5%. Now, with two new components and a 6+ month rally, that number is 2.8%.
According to data from Thomson Reuters, Verizon is now the highest yielding stock on the Dow, passing AT&T . Note that these rankings will change as companies announce new dividends (or cuts as we saw during the end of 2008 and early 2009) and see their prices fluctuate as well.
Below is a table listing the yields of all 30 Dow components. The average yield for the index based on Friday's close is 2.8%. Citigroup and GM are not members of the Dow but were at the start of the year and are included in the table for reference only. Their yields are not included in the averages at the bottom of the table.
Even if you are suspicious of the higher yielding telecoms, there may be some good value plays to consider here.
Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com
bythenumbers.cnbc.com
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e4cedfbbc66b5c6b255ee6477a536c30 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/how-to-move-your-house-in-a-tough-market.html | How To Move Your House In A Tough Market | How To Move Your House In A Tough Market
If you’re planning to put your home on the market, it’s not your manners that need polishing. Try your silver, among other improvements. Now, more than ever, getting a signed contract in hand is all about price and quality.
Here's a few tips to selling your house in a tough market.
Price Is A Science
8072 Damico Drive, El Dorado Hills, CA 95672 — this was purchased several years ago for $905 and is on the market at $395K, short sale.Elizabeth Weintraub, Lyon Real Estate
“The biggest mistake sellers make today is that they don’t price their homes correctly,” says Elizabeth Weintraub, a broker with Lyon’s Real Estate in downtown Sacramento. “If a house sits on the market, people start to wonder, ‘what’s wrong with that property. How come it’s not selling?’”
She says pricing is an art and a science, and also depends on the local market. In Sacramento, for example, home sellers are competing directly with foreclosures and short sales (when a seller owes more on a property than it is worth and the bank agrees to accept less than the amount of the mortgage).
Slideshow: Nine Tips to Get Your House Sold
“In the past, if there was a home that was sold as a foreclosure on your street, it was an isolated circumstance. Now, because of the high number of foreclosures and short sales, they are the comparable sales,” Weintraub says. “If your price is not competitive with these numbers, it might not get shown at all.”
Her pricing method: look at pending sales. These will become the comparable sales. Even though they don’t say the exact sale price, you can make an educated guess or find out from the listing agent.
Weintraub also says that if you put your house on the market and it doesn’t sell after 90 days, take it off the market and list it again at another time. “You don’t want it to become stale.”
Mary Ann Grabel of Greenwich Fine Properties in Greenwich, Connecticut, agrees. “It’s all about price,” Grabel says. “People who really want or need to sell are willing to take less than what they paid two or three years ago.”
Condition, Not Conditions
Tom Apligian, whose Re/Max office in Plano, Texas serves the Dallas suburbs, says that “while kitchens and bathrooms still sell houses, what used to work in the past doesn’t anymore.”
“Going back four or five years, we used to do a decorating allowance,” Apligian says, referring to the money that sellers would offer buyers to cover new carpet or other decorative items. Now, he says, this sends up a red flag that a house is run down.
“If you think a buyer wants to take your four or five thousand dollars to decorate a house that’s been neglected or needs updating, you’re wrong,” says Apligian.
“People are always working, and the last thing they want to do when they come home is pick up a paint brush,” he says.
500 N Street, Unit 1204, Sacramento, CA 95814 (short sale) Condo in downtown Sacramento. Listed at $245,000.Elizabeth Weintraub, Lyon Real Estate
Apligian also believes that the reason for this is not just the economy; lifestyles and expectations have changed, and a fresh coat of paint is good, but not enough.
“Part of the reason is that you have all these decorating programs on TV,” says Apligian. “People want to walk in and say ‘wow!’ The “wow” factor is very important today.”
If you can’t renovate your entire kitchen, Apligian says, “Granite now costs $25 a foot. Put in a granite counter top, and updated appliances—new stove, oven, microwave, dishwasher. In the bathroom, change the toilet or the vanity.”
Grabel says, “almost every listing is extensively landscaped and sellers are paying to have their homes staged if they are not fully furnished or furnished in a certain manner, so it's less personal, and more of a blank canvas.”
“Sellers are doing whatever they can do to put their house in the best light possible, especially in the very competitive price ranges. People are looking for things in pristine condition,” she says.
Apligian’s other staging tips: appeal to the senses with soft music, vanilla aroma, the color yellow and natural light.
Re/Max Dallas Suburbs
Less is More
One of the best things to hit the industry, says Apligian, is the pod—a mobile storage unit that is dropped off in front of your house.
“You're moving, right? Let’s start the move now,” Apligian says, “let’s get half the stuff out of your house into a pod. Empty that closet. Get all the crud off the kitchen counter. The toaster oven, the coffee pot. I don’t care if you use it every day. Get it out,” Apligian says.
On the other hand, one of the most sensitive subjects for sellers, Apligian says, is pets. He says that he frequently has to tells his clients nicely, “sorry, but Fido has to go.”
“If you have a pet, one out of ten buyers won’t even step foot in your house,” he says. It is much easier to sell a house if your dog can board with friends so there is no smell, noise, or allergy problems.
“When you are selling your house, it’s no longer a home, it’s a house. There’s a difference,” he says.
'Wow' House Priced to Sell
In April of this year, Andreas and Keri Wetterwald, decided to sell their three-bedroom, 1700-square foot Tudor, located across from a private lake in White Plains, N.Y.
Re/Max Dallas Suburbs
“We were under contract in two weeks,” Andreas Wetterwald said.
In the seven years that he and his family lived there, they did approximately $80,000 worth of improvements, including renovating the kitchen, refinishing the hardwood floors, putting in new windows throughout the house and installing a new enclosed patio with French doors.
“Three months before we listed the house, we also rented storage units and cleared out a lot of things that were not being used," adds Keri Wetterwald. "Our house looked bigger and not crowded.”
When it came time to put the house on the market, they felt comfortable that their house was in good shape. “We didn’t want to play games,” he says, “we wanted it to sell.”
To arrive at the listing price of $579,000, the Wetterwald’s consulted with their Realtor. They also did some homework on their own. They found that two houses on their street were also for sale—one priced higher and the other lower. After a couple of low offers, the Wetterwald’s got their asking price.
Andreas Wetterwald believes his house sold quickly because of its price and condition. But, he says, there was also that minor detail about the house being across the street from a lake. Isn’t there another rule in real estate, something about location, location, location?
Slideshow: Nine Tips to Get Your House SoldCompare Mortgage Rates Nationwide
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8185f2aadcb178fd226d036b44c6e39e | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/intel-prepares-for-break-out.html | Intel Prepares for Break Out | Intel Prepares for Break Out
Intel may have finally found its groove, and its shares are finally beginning to reflect it. As the company prepares to release its third quarter earnings Tuesday afternoon, investors have to ask themselves whether now is the time to jump in, or whether this will be another winter of discontent.
Analysts anticipate Intel will earn 27 cents a share on just over $9 billion. Remember that Intel increased its outlook to $8.8 billion to $9.2 billion, up from the original $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion. It would be a marked, sequential improvement, but year over year, Intel still has a ways to go when the company reported 35 cents on $10.2 billion. That said, the signs of a recovery are there, and Intel seems positioned well to take advantage of the key trends driving the chip industry right now, most notably the advent of netbooks, the coming PC upgrade cycle courtesy of next week's Windows 7 release from Microsoft , the ongoing surge in Mac sales from Apple , and a replenishing of the channel as PC makers took inventories down to almost imperceptible levels.
Look, I'm not suggesting that there will be a rip-roaring jump in PC demand, but there are some strong signs that consumers are spending on new computers, and enterprise customers are beginning to upgrade. Worldwide chip sales did indeed fall 16 percent in August year over year, but they were up for the sixth straight month, according to the SIA.
All this bodes well for weary Intel investors who always seem to play bridesmaid when it comes to big market rallies.
Intel shares have certainly not been a slouch, up 38 percent year to date, but for a stock that fell 44 percent last year, it also hasn't taken advantage of the broader market rocketship ride, and might be due for some kind of break out. Yet, when it comes to "break out," Intel suffers from its own theory of relativity where a big move might be a few percentage points, and not the 10 or 15 percent growth companies like Apple and Google might see. Also, remember that Intel is sitting on an $11 billion mountain of cash, and with all the M&A activity going on, and the successful integration already of Wind River Systems, I suspect Intel will be on the hunt again in the not-to-distant future. I thought maybe nVidia would make sense, but with a new feud between the two afoot, maybe not so much anymore?
Technology: More than Just the Top-Performing Sector
Still, now might be a good time to get in and roll the dice on a good upgrade cycle to come. CEO Paul Otellini inherited a company at a truly difficult time in Intel's history. It appears his strategy to cut back, push low-cost but strong margin microprocessors, and the company's push back into communications and wireless is serving Intel well. I spoke with Otellini at the company's Developer Forum last month in San Francisco, and he was candid about Intel's entry into smart phones. It represents enormous opportunity for Intel and the company simply has to be there. I'm just a little surprised that it took the company this long to recognize it. (I guess "once bitten" when it comes to Intel's ill-fated partnership with Research in Motion and the Blackberry all those many years ago.)
Intel also continues to slog its way through the mud with rival Advanced Micro Devices (which reports Thursday) and the big anti-trust case with the European Union. AMD has made some compelling points recently, and Intel tells me it wants to answer those allegations but can't because of an EU-imposed gag order, which AMD disputes, by the way.
Nonetheless, the Intel story Tuesday night will come down to margin strength, and whether it's expanding, and what kind of guidance Intel offers. Short of something surprisingly significant, and bad, such as a hiccup in Intel's recovery or signs that a recovery may be slowing or somehow in reversal, this may indeed be a good time to give Intel a second look.
Slideshow: Evolution of Wireless Communication
Questions? Comments? TechCheck@cnbc.com
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157464189eaf949fddb39fb52c4de498 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/investors-punish-lazard-for-ceo-illness.html | Shares of Lazard closed lower on Monday after CEO and legendary dealmaker Bruce Wasserstein was hospitalized for an irregular heartbeat. Wasserstein's condition is serious, but he is stable and recovering, Lazard said, adding that it will not be providing updates at this time.
The Wall Street veteran achieved fame as an adviser to buyout house KKR on its unprecedented acquisition of RJR Nabisco in 1989, which was recorded for posterity in the book, "Barbarians at the Gate."
Throughout his career, Wasserstein helped broker more than 1,000 transactions worth more than $250 billion, including Time's merger with Warner Brothers and the Dean Witter, Discover & Co. combination with Morgan Stanley.
“This is a person that's deeply involved in the relationships that are so fundamental to this company," explains Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University's business school. "It just screams uncertainty."
And that led us to wonder – which other CEOs are so tightly linked to their companies that sudden illness might also impact the firm’s share price. Here’s our list.
Mark Hurd – Hewlett PackardWarren Buffett – Berkshire HathawayLloyd Blankein – Goldman SachsMickey Drexler - JCrewFind out what the traders have to say about these companies and what might happen if the CEOs were unable to perform their jobs at the company, for whatever reason. Watch the video now!
VIDEO0:0000:00Critical CEOs
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .Trader disclosure: On October 12, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MGM), (MSFT), (BX), (POT); Seymour Owns Shares Of Gazprom; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Call Spreads, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (MSFT), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM), (PLCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Terranova Owns (JPM), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS)For JoeTerranova:Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA) For Craig BergerFBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ONNN)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (BRCM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (NVDA)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MRVL)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LLTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MXIM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATML)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LSI)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (SLAB)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MSCC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (QCOM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATHR)For David TroneFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (GS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (MS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (JPM) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Next 3 MonthsFor Christa QuarlesThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Managed Or Co-Managed A Public Offering Of Securities For (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (GOOG) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Investment Banking Services To (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (YHOO) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services To And/Or Has Agreed To Provide Services Or Has A Client Relationship With (YHOO)CNBC.com with wires
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a801ad0104555dc1ef69db04acaef28f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/lightning-round-ot-sprint-nextel-dryships-and-more.html | Sprint Nextel : Don’t buy S. “I’m worried about Sprint,” Cramer said.
Cramer's 15 Rules for Playing Defense
Blue Coat Systems : Cramer endorsed BCSI as a security play, though he said he liked ArcSight more.
DryShips : This group “is a tough one right here,” Cramer said. He’ll only recommend Frontline and Nordic American Tanker .
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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51063fa620974d46ae7b2c53579db306 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/market-tips-earnings-may-offer-pleasant-surprises.html | Market Tips: Earnings May Offer Pleasant Surprises | Market Tips: Earnings May Offer Pleasant Surprises
Global stocks were mostly higher on Monday, as better-than-expected third-quarter earnings began to trickle in. Experts told CNBC US earnings may surprise on the upside although there are still concerns over revenues. They also said there is great long-term investment potential in the Chinese market as well as the commodities sector.
US Earnings May Surprise on the Upside
U.S earnings will likely surprise on the upside, says Mark Konyn, CEO of RCM Asia Pacific. But he continues to be concerned about top-line growth.
US Financials Set to Post Report Cards
U.S. banks are set to report earnings this week. David Shearwood, CEO at Atoms Funds Management speaks to CNBC about how the weak housing loan market will weigh on earnings.
Chinese Stocks Set to Gain
Expect to see further gains in the Chinese markets for the rest of the year, says Dariusz Kowalczyk, chief investment strategist at SJS Markets.
Investing in China
Monetary tightening is not an immediate threat in China, believes Mark Konyn, CEO of RCM Asia Pacific.
Bullish on Commodities Long-Term
David Shearwood, CEO at Atoms Funds Management tells CNBC why he is bullish on commodity prices in the long term.
Commodity Picks
Atlas Iron and Troy Resources are some of the stock picks for Matt Martin, institutional trader at Wilson HTM. He shares his investment strategy in the commodities space.
Track Stock Funds, Bond Funds, Money Market Funds and ETFs Here
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23dace9375f6e4372d2c2dca84397c9f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/money-to-burn-drive-away-in-this-pastry.html | Consumer Nation | Consumer Nation
The economy may be on its way back, but conspicuous consumption is not.
Wealthy Americans may be feeling more cheery and optimistic as the Christmas holiday season approaches, but that doesn't mean they will be doling out extravagant gifts.
Customized Cupcake CarSource: Neiman Marcus
Take the Neiman Marcus Christmas Book. If the catalog, which began as a holiday card for the store's best customers, is any gauge of the luxury market, the high-end is more down-to-earth these days.
This year's batch of fantasy gifts carry more modest price tags. The list also is heavy on experience-based gifts rather than bold displays of opulence.
The most expensive item is a $250,000 Icon A5 sports plane. With its spy-movie wings that rotate up and fold back out of the way, and its ability to land on water or land, the plane is sure to inspire a few fantasies. Still, it's certainly more affordable than last year's high-ticket item: a cutomized golf course that started at $1 million.
Slideshow: Fantasy Christmas Gifts 2009
But if you feel you have money to burn and still want to show the world, perhaps you should consider ponying up $25,000 to design your own Cupcake Car because nothing says, "I can buy whatever I want" as much as a motorized pastry.
The car will be created by Bay Area artist Lisa Pongrace, who originally designed it as a cooperative art car project at Burning Man, in any topping you choose.
To see all the items in the catalog, check out our slideshow.
In case you are curious, Neiman Marcus does actually sell a few of these fantasy items each year. Even last year, which was one of the worst holiday seasons for retailers in decades, the retailer sold a Viking ring and a $275,000 record collection.
And although it usually sells out of its limited edition car, last year, it did not. This year's car goes on sale at noon on Friday. It is a 2010 Jaguar XJL, and only 50 will be sold.
And if the catalog's contents aren't enough to drive home the message that we're still feeling some shockwaves from last year's financial crisis, American Express Publishing and Harrison Group have put some numbers behind the trend. Their poll of high-net worth Americans show spending will still be restrained this holiday season.
The respondents’ projections of holiday gift-giving volume and spending suggest overall holiday gift purchasing will be down by as much as 15 percent among the affluent and wealthy families that make up the top 10 percent of the U.S. household economic spectrum.
That's far deeper than the projections for overall holiday retail sales, which should fall 1 percent this year, according to the National Retail Federation.
More from Consumer Nation:
Price Wars in Toyland: Target to Match Wal-Mart's Cuts Slideshow: Hot Holiday ToysToymakers Stress Value for the Holidays
Questions? Comments? Email us at consumernation@cnbc.com
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403f5c2c6ceadaa55da1f488b079e013 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/mortgage-bankers-what-happens-when-fed-stops-buying.html | Mortgage Bankers: What Happens When Fed Stops Buying? | Mortgage Bankers: What Happens When Fed Stops Buying?
It's my favorite time of year again.
The air is crispy, the leaves are crackly, and the mortgage bankers are crunching numbers once more at their annual convention here in San Diego. The MBA's chief cruncher, Jay Brinkmann, is set to release his forecast here tomorrow, but I found him lurking around the pressroom a few minutes ago, and we got to talking.
I threw him all the usual questions about loan modifications and rising delinquencies, and are the banks doing enough, and I could go on but I'm already boring myself. But then he volunteered that his biggest concern going forward is what happens to the mortgage market when the Fed stops buying Fannie and Freddie's loans. Apparently, at last report, the Fed was buying 100 percent of their loans. Where are the other investors? Either they still don't want mortgages or the Fed is pricing them out of the market.
Brinkmann says we should worry less about the jumbo loan market, which is pretty darned expensive right now, and more about what happens when the Fed goes cold turkey in March.
How To Move Your House In A Tough Market
"We don't know if rates will go up 20 basis points or 40 or far more," says Brinkmann. Right now origination volume is surging again, mostly thanks to refis, but there are some purchases in there, thanks to those near historic low interest rates. You can talk all you want about the first time homebuyer tax credit, but low rates are the real driver in today's still-limping real estate market.
The Fed was supposed to slowly ease itself out of buying Fannie and Freddie, and they did extend the program from the end of this year through March, but if they're still buying 100 percent of loans now, that makes a transition back to the private market ever harder. Obviously the government has to follow an exit strategy. They can't continue to prop up the market because that's just pushing the pain down the road and at an exorbitant cost at that.
Questions? Comments? RealtyCheck@cnbc.com
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11dcfc113ae3059578fd47a048be2634 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/new-drilling-tech-taps-this-stocks-potential.html | The New York Timesthis past weekend ran a story that Cramer’s been talking up for a while now: horizontal drilling and its potential to tap huge natural-gas reserves.
Cramer's 15 Rules for Playing Defense
One expert cited in the article called horizontal drilling “the biggest energy innovation of the decade.” Of course, regular Mad Money viewers already knew that, but during Monday’s show Cramer reiterated his bullish call on natural gas. It’s a cleaner, more viable bridge fuel that would lessen our dependence on foreign oil, and its adoption would be a great way to create jobs.
So how do investors play it?
VIDEO0:0000:00Eureka Moment
Well, in terms of the Marcellus Shale, specifically, which is a huge nat-gas field in Pennsylvania that contains 2.4 quadrillion cubic feet of reserves, Cramer likes Chesapeake Energy .
Chesapeake owns nine of the 52 rigs presently drilling in the Marcellus, as well as 1.45 million net acres there. When you add in the company’s holdings in the Haynesville, Barnett and Fayetteville shales, Chesapeake has 46 trillion cubic feet of unproved reserve potential, Cramer said, “enough to supply the US with most of its energy needs for the next 20 years.”
Regardless of whether Washington finally catches on and begins to favor natural gas the way it has coal, Cramer thinks nat gas is going to $6 or $7 next year.
“Chesapeake is, without a doubt,” he said, “the single best way to play” it.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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ebcd8e86e805cbb5c86b8705aeee6768 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/new-jersey-outshines-most-others-in-solar-energy.html | New Jersey Outshines Most Others in Solar Energy | New Jersey Outshines Most Others in Solar Energy
No one would mistake it for the Sunshine State.
PSEG
But New Jersey—known more for its turnpike, shopping malls and industrial sprawl—has become a solar energy powerhouse, outshining sunnier states like Hawaii and Nevada. And it's largely because of incentives that make it cheaper for residents and businesses to buy and install solar power systems.
As of last year, the Garden State had 70 megawatts of grid-connected solar capacity, second only to California with 528 megawatts, according to a report by the Interstate Renewable Energy Council. Rounding out the top five were Colorado, Nevada and Arizona.
Governor Jon Corzine (D) recently announced that the state had installed its 4,000th solar system in the past summer—making it No. 1 in solar installed per square mile.
Slideshow: Top States for Solar Power
“What this shows is that state policies are more important than the amount of sun that’s available,” says Larry Sherwood, an analyst at the council. “Having good policies is really important.”
California’s success with solar energy is not surprising considering the state’s sunny weather, aggressive policies and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s (R) legislative mandate to have one million solar roofs in the state by 2018.
New Jersey's plan is to get 30 percent of its energy needs from renewable energy by 2020 with 2.12 percent of it from solar alone by 2012.
Both states are throwing generous rebates and tax credits at consumers and businesses to win them over and meet these goals.
The Carbon Challenge - A CNBC Special Report - See Complete Coverage
The savings is what got New Jerseyans Bob and Mary Keppel to install a 6-kilowatt solar system on the roof of their Cinnaminson, N.J. home this past summer.
“When we first were inclined to do something we though about solar panels,” says Bob, a partner at Cope Linder Architects in Philadelphia.
After researching for some time on how they could make their home more energy efficient, seeing the cost reductions they would get helped them to “jump on the band wagon” and go solar, he says.
The full price of the project, including installation, came to $48,000. Right away, the state sent a subsidy check for $10,500 that the Keppel’s signed over to the contractors to buy supplies. Using computer software, their contractor estimates that they will get a $11,250 federal tax credit this year. That would cut the total cost to $26,250, a 45-percent reduction.
In addition, the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities is giving out one Solar Renewable Energy Certificate, or SREC, for every 1,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity produced by a system. SRECs are traded in a market depending on the supply and demand for the certificate, and the value of one certificate varies widely. The weighted average price for one SREC in July was a little over $520.
“It’s that third component that made it easy to say yes to it,” says Mary Keppel. “It was the easiest money I’ve spent.” Considering all three sources of funding, their contractors estimate that it should take the couple a little under five years for the solar panels to pay for themselves. “We thought it would take longer, like 10 to 12 years,” adds Bob.
Besides residents, the state’s largest utility, Public Service Enterprise Group is finding ways to generate more grid-connected solar energy.
“New Jersey has a shortage of available space,” says Paul Rosengren, a spokesperson at the utility.
While other states, like California and Nevada, have room to build massive solar power plants, PSEG had to get creative: They have begun attaching 200,000 grid-connected solar panels on top of utility and light poles.
The project, which started this year, will generate about 40 megawatts of power for the grid.
Aside from light poles, some businesses with extra space are filing it with solar power systems to help power their buildings.
Food manufacturer Mars, for example, teamed up with PSEG to build a solar farm made up of over 28,000 panels at its Hackettstown, N.J. U.S. headquarters. Here’s how the deal works: PSEG owns, operates and maintains the solar farm, while Mars buys the energy generated for its plant.
“The state encourages utilities to be creative on the finance arrangements,” says Jamie Van Nostrand, executive director of the Pace Energy and Climate Center at Pace University Law School. “They’re all sophisticated negotiations.”
For its distribution hub in Woodbridge, N.J., FedEx Ground has a similar deal. The company is allowing BP to install and operate a solar power system on its roof, while FedEx Ground buys the energy created to power its building.
“It’s less expensive than getting power from the utility,” says Paul Viccaro, managing director of facilities at FedEx Ground. FedEx has three other facilities with solar roofs, all located in California.
So why build one in New Jersey, of all places?
“It’s where the money is,” says Vicarro, “New Jersey is the right place right now for alternative energy.”
Slideshow: Top States for Solar Power
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4c9c6eeea3d5b9855a90a7a6096b271f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/oil-gold-us-dollar-whats-the-best-investment-now.html | Oil, Gold, US Dollar: What's the Best Investment Now? | Oil, Gold, US Dollar: What's the Best Investment Now?
Oil, gold or the US dollar? Three experts — Jerry Castellini, president and CIO of CastleArk Management; Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com; and Matt Zeman, trader at LaSalle Futures Group — offered CNBC their investment advice.
VIDEO0:0000:00Bet on Gold, Oil, or the Dollar?
“The dollar is catching a lot of heat these days," Dolan said.
"But it’s weakened to a point now that it’s reached politically sensitive levels, and we’re seeing interventions by multiple Asian central banks attempting to prevent their own currencies from strengthening further and attempting to support the dollar,” Dolan told CNBC.
Dolan suggested buying the dollar/yen and the dollar while selling the British pound .
Meanwhile, Zeman said a short-term bounce in the dollar is “highly likely,” but there will be an overall dollar weakness for some time to come.
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
“That will be a huge positive for gold,” Zeman said.
“Perhaps the U.S. is not the end-all, be-all economic powerhouse that we used to be. You see talk of taking oil trading out of dollar and other hard assets out of dollar and into euro and other currencies.”
Zeman told investors to buygold in other currencies “and [don’t] chase the market at these levels,” saying there will be some pullback in the future that will provide better entry points.
In the meantime, Castellini said oil trade is the way to go.
More Market Intelligence:
5 Energy Picks From a 5-Star ManagerOil, NatGas Outlook from Schork ReportChinese Yuan May Oust Dollar as Reserve Currency: Gartman
“If India, China and the rest of the world economies are going to grow, there’s one problem: there isn’t enough oil out there to fire those economies up over the next five years,” he said. “Of all the places you could put money, oil seems to be the one place that we have the greatest need.”
Castellini advised investors to focus on either international or domestic based growing oil and gas companies.
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
The 10 Hottest Commodities of 2009
______________________________
______________________________ Disclosures:
No immediate information was available for Castellini, Dolan or Zeman.
Disclaimer
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fd48eb094bf2ebddaab87160f9bb2c2b | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/oil-prices-to-head-higher-this-week-cnbc-survey.html | Oil Prices to Head Higher This Week: CNBC Survey | Oil Prices to Head Higher This Week: CNBC Survey
Our weekly CNBC survey asks traders, analysts and strategists about their outlook for crude. Here are this week's results:
Overall Sentiment: Neutral-Bullish
Total Responses: 11
Neutral: 5Bullish: 4Bearish: 2
Key Bullish Factors:
Upbeat earnings season and robust stock markets supporting pricesThe weakening dollar
Key Bearish Factors:
Oil will meet resistance at $70/bbl level
Bullish Themes:
Chris Mennis, New Wave Energy:
"What's the big deal about the weak dollar? It stimulates U.S. exports, and with the exception of gold, there is no inflation in the U.S."
"Oil markets are moving higher as we crawl toward recovery, ratchet tensions up with Iran. The dollar is merely a fulcrum to lift commodities, and stock markets from their oversold lows of early 2009."
"The dollar is no where near last years lows, and is in fact oversold as well, in my opinion."
Bearish Themes:
Mark Waggoner, Excel Futures:
"We believe the market will head lower. The dollar making new lows has hampered previous attempts. In the short term fundematals are bearish. However, long term we should go much higher as demand picks up. We should head for $65-66" this week."
Ong Eng Tong, Mabanaft:
"I guess it is like the old record being played over and over again the last few weeks. The price will fluctuate between the $70 per bbl. Will the record play on, it is anybody's guess as the surplus situation is still not over."
Neutral Themes:
Mike Sander, Sander Capital Advisors:
"Even though everything looks bullish for oil, the price has still held steady in the $70 ballpark since the start of June, while the dollar has weakened and the Dow Jones is 1,000 points higher."
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c6d099bde133eebcdc27a482c0e37f22 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/option-traders-still-bullish-on-this-chip-company.html | Option Traders Still Bullish on This Chip Company | Option Traders Still Bullish on This Chip Company
Synopsys ended last week at its highest closing price in a year, and option traders apparently believe that the chip software company will climb even higher before Christmas.
Synopsys finished Friday's session up 1.64 percent to $23, matching its 52-week intraday high from late September. The stock has gained 65 percent since its low of $13.94 from November 2008.
Options Tips from Jon NajarianRead The CNBC Stock BlogOptions Tips from Pete Najarian
More than 75 percent of the day's option trading took place at the December 25 strike, where 7,321 calls changed hands in a strong buying pattern for $0.35 to $0.65, according to . The trading far exceeded open interest of just 233 contracts, indicating the opening of new positions, and dwarfed the average volume of just 9 calls a day for the last month.
The name saw 9,702 calls and puts trade at all strikes Friday, compared with its average daily option volume of just 374 total contracts. Calls outnumbered puts by more than 14 to 1.
For the calls bought Friday to turn a profit, the stock would need to rise between 10 percent and 11.5 percent by the time the options expire on Dec. 18. Synopsys has not scheduled its next earnings report, but several industry conferences will be held before December, including the company's annual forum for vendors and customers on Nov. 5.
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Synopsys Competes With:
Cadence Design Systems
Magma Design Automation
Mentor Graphics
___________________________Options Trading School:
Options Terminology: GlossaryBasic Strategies — with ExamplesOptions Basics: The ABCs
___________________________
___________________________
Mike Yamamoto is an analyst and writer for .
___________________________
Disclaimer
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3946e5c8c0d729a40b02af6f372b6d79 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/poll-is-the-recession-over.html | Poll: Is The Recession Over? | Poll: Is The Recession Over?
The National Association of Business Economists said a majority of business economists believe the worst recession since the Great Depression has ended. Do you agree? Take our poll:
Related Links:
US Recession Over, Joblessness to Reach 10%Recession Over? Tell That to the 15 Million Still UnemployedBig Banks Looking Good, Regionals to Take Hit: BoveSummers Sees 'Substantial Change' in Jobs TrendThe New Tax Deadline: What You Must Know
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185c0ffa943c83956101b291bc65f098 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/sports-teams-awaiting-spongetech-audit.html | Sports Teams Awaiting Spongetech Audit | Sports Teams Awaiting Spongetech Audit
SpongeTech spongesSource: Spongetech.com
In the history of sports marketing, there has never been a brand that has gone from zero to everything like SpongeTech, the infomercial sponge companythat is now sponsoring at least 35 sports teams.
Just like the economy had benefited SpongeTech in the form of cheaper commercial time, the economy also allowed them to get into sports arenas around the country as teams were desperate to fill signage space.
They got prime space in Citi Field and at the New Yankee Stadium and in the background for New York Giants interviews on gameday. They bought the practice jersey rights to the Cincinnati Bengals that yielded them more than $350,000 in advertising exposure on HBO’s "Hard Knocks," according to sponsorship evaluation firm, Joyce Julius & Associates. It even got its name onto the court at Arthur Ashe Stadium during the U.S. Open.
America's New Stadiums
Having done a documentary on the informercial business, I was initially skeptical about seeing so much SpongeTech so soon. I had learned that for every $1 you spent on an infomercial, you had to gross $2 in order to stay alive for another week.
SpongeTech might have been able to get deals with teams, but they weren’t free. Their director of marketing Jack Schwartzberg told the SportsBusiness Journal that, in 2009, the brand’s marketing budget was $20 million. That’s an outrageous number for a company that had just announced it would gross $50 million on their fiscal year, which ended May 31.
You can’t possibly get that 1-to-2 ratio if you spend 40 percent of gross on marketing alone. Pre-tax profitability, by the way, was announced to be $10 million.
So it was great that SpongeTech was becoming a household name, but at what cost?
Earlier this month, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced the temporary suspension of trading on its penny stock, which at the time had hit six cents a share, so that the company could answer questions about the accuracy of their auditing practices.
Awaiting the results of the financials from a new auditor will not only be a group of stockholders who are now part of a class action lawsuit against the company and its top officers, but the sports teams that have deals with the company.
One team official told CNBC that it had a multi-year deal with the company that provided for either the team or Spongetech to get out early. The official said that SpongeTech did pay for its 2009 signage, but that the rest of the deal has been canceled.
The class action suit, filed on Friday, seeks to compensate shareholders if the company did misstate their financial information, among other charges. SpongeTech officials have said that the company had a problem with its auditor.
Since the suit was filed, Laurence Rosen – whose lawyer who is representing the plaintiffs -– says he has received more e-mails from people who want to be part of the case than any other case he has ever worked on.
Depending on the information the SEC receives, it can choose to lift the suspension of the company’s shares so that it could trade again next Monday.
SpongeTech officials were not immediately available for comment.
Questions? Comments? SportsBiz@cnbc.com
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c53a5a4937d10bbd0f6f117ed2e55bb2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/start-investing-for-inflation-strategists.html | Start Investing for Inflation: Strategists | Start Investing for Inflation: Strategists
Markets mostly traded higher on Monday, as better-than-expected earnings results began trickling in, boosting investors' optimism about the overall earnings season. Leo Grohowski, CIO of BNY Mellon Wealth Management, and Charles Kantor, managing director and portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, shared their market insights.
VIDEO0:0000:00Stocks Move Higher
“In the short to medium term, the market is heading higher,” Kantor told CNBC. “We have a huge move from risk aversion to more risk taking, confidence is building and now earnings have to come through.”
Based on market confidence, Kantor said it’s appropriate for investors to own more equities.
"We own more equities today than we did during the March lows," he said. "We’ve been buying equities that we think can grow in this environment that are described as overall tepid."
Kantor added that Treasury index inflation bonds remain underowned, and told investors to focus on TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), as inflation will likely rise above 2 percent.
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Where's the US Dollar Today?Track Treasury Prices Here
In the meantime, Grohowski said he has a target of 1,125 on the S&P, based on a $75 earnings number for next year.
“The path of least resistance in the near term is higher,” he said. “For the next 12 to 15 months, as long as investors aren’t expecting much more than a mid-to-high single-digit price rise, they should be sticking with stocks.”
More Market Intelligence:
Big Financials Will Keep Losing Money: ExpertsChinese Yuan May Oust Dollar as Reserve Currency: Gartman
Grohowski said investors shouldn’t have to worry about inflation for the next couple of months to possibly the next few quarters.
“But in positioning portfolios for the next 3 to 5 years, it’s very important to recognize the risk of rising interest rates and potentially higher inflation,” he said.
“So given the dramatic pullback we’ve seen in commodities and even given a slight year-to-date run in some, this is a good entry point for commodities and it’s also a good time to be reallocating into the emerging markets.”
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
20 Stocks with the Potential to Pop
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______________________________CNBC's Companies in the News:
Blackstone
Blackstone to List Up to 8 Firms, Sell 5 Others
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Faces PR Dilemma Over Huge Bonuses
Google
Google Board Member Departs to Avoid Conflict of Interest
Microsoft
Sidekick US Users Face Personal Data Loss
Citigroup
Killing Citigroup's Goose That Laid the Golden Egg
_____________________________ Disclosures:
No immediate information was available for Grohowski or Kantor.
______________________________
Disclaimer
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84949c4ad07ed053099039a5c7b6a94d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/stocks-rally-until-2010-then-a-very-playable-pullback-strategist.html | Stocks Rally Until 2010 — Then a 'Very Playable' Pullback: Strategist | Stocks Rally Until 2010 — Then a 'Very Playable' Pullback: Strategist
This is the week the market will make its big push, as positive earnings surprises will send it higher and carry it through the rest of the year, said Marc Pado, US markets strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.
VIDEO0:0000:00Rally On?
"As these companies get an incremental amount of more production, it's going to be more profit, and that's what stocks trade off of," Pado said. "[It's] not about the economy, not about employment — in the long run those are important, but right now it's about profits."
Pado said the market will experience a "very playable" pullback early next year from people buying on rumor and selling on news. Still, it won't drop back down to its March lows, he said.
"That was a false low that was put in," he said. "That was panic."
More Investor Intelligence:
Big Financials Will Keep Losing Money: Experts5 Energy Picks From a 5-Star Manager
But Andy Bischel, chief investment officer at SKBA Capital Management, said he thinks a slew of economic surprises, including GDP growth for the next four or five quarters, will help the market maintain its gains through 2010.
To play the swing, he said investors should buy into the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE Euronext), which is offering a 4 percent dividend yield, or USBancorp, which has maintained a "pretty clean" balance sheet and has the opportunity to expand its loan book and gain market share.
CNBC Data Pages:
Track Gold and Other Commodities Where's the US Dollar Today?Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time
______________________________ Companies Reporting Earnings This Week:
General Electric
Intel
JPMorgan Chase
Goldman Sachs
Bank of America
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
Twenty Stocks Ready to PopWorld's Best Places to Live 2009
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Disclosure:
Disclosure information was not available for Pado, Bischel or their companies
______________________________
Disclaimer
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5654f046fb5f319de70bb3e1e62cf837 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/tamminen-measuring-carbonjust-imagine.html | Tamminen: Measuring Carbon—Just Imagine | Tamminen: Measuring Carbon—Just Imagine
A few weeks ago, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson announced that 10,000 facilities would soon have to measure and register their carbon emissions. Last week, she told a packed house at the Governors’ Global Climate Summit2 in Los Angeles that her agency will introduce rules requiring significant new sources of carbon emissions, like a new or remodeled fossil-fueled power plant, to pay for the right to pollute.
Clearly, these are salvos in the Obama administration’s campaign to use the Clean Air Act to reduce greenhouse gases, rather than wait for Congress to figure out how to do it (last year, when I outlined for presidential candidate Obama how to do this, I sensed it appealed to the law professor in him, even though he was a member of Congress at the time!).
While the US Chamber of Commerce recoiled in horror at these announcements—causing PG&E , Exelon and PNM to cancel their memberships in protest over the Chamber’s “so last-century” position—others saw opportunity. Among those who will create new jobs in a low-carbon economy are the oft-maligned “bean counters,” or in this case, the carbon counters.
The Carbon Challenge - A CNBC Special Report - See Complete Coverage
While companies as different as Walmart , Dell and Walt Disney embrace carbon footprint labels for products as diverse as sneakers, laptops, and movies, they hire in-house experts and outside contractors to decide how best to measure the carbon content and which standards to use.
Leaders in the field include PE International, Natural Logic and Clear Carbon. This is also a major new business development opportunity for engineering firms, currently struggling in the economic downturn, to create whole new areas of expertise and revenue streams. CH2M Hill and Ameresco are two early/major players in that space.
Factory Emission
And in anticipation of more regulation and carbon-labeling, new standards and models are being developed around the world for how to measure things that don’t have a smokestack, driving even more business to this new class of carbon accountants.Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark told me how her country is trying to breed cows that emit less methane by engineering both the diet and the digestive system. An army of pocket-protectors is now chasing cows and sheep across the NZ landscape to measure the carbon in each gaseous discharge, demonstrating the broad scope this new profession will have. I guess that’s one way to stimulate a green economy!
Investors and companies should pay attention to the service industry that’s emerging to meet these massive new demands for information. A decade ago, health-conscious consumers forced manufacturers to list nutritional information on food packages.
We’ll soon be able to make buying decisions based on carbon content too—taming our waistlines and and waste lines at the same time. ______________________________Terry Tamminen, former Secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency, is a partner at Pegasus Sustainable Century Merchant Bank and the Cullman Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation. (Cracking The Carbon Code is a registered trademark of Terry Tamminen).
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60a2ff2339548cbc00b0b563cc670d03 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/their-future-is-important-to-me.html | Their Future Is Important To Me | Their Future Is Important To Me
The funny business of putting on a stage show.
This weekend I co-hosted "A Salute to Teachers" in San Diego. At first, I thought, "What?"
I occasionally host events for CNBC, usually CFA forecast dinners-fun, low-key affairs full of talk about commodities and China.
Jane WellsCNBC.com
But a salute to teachers?
For 19 years, Cox Communications and the office of education in San Diego have been celebrating the county's best teachers. And when CNBC signed on to the event, my old friend, Dennis Morgigno-who hosts it every year-asked me to help.
Turns out, this is not your typical rubber chicken dinner. I asked if I should wear business casual or a cocktail dress.
Um. Neither. I needed to buy a gown.
(Found one on sale at Nordstrom! The upside of the down economy!)
Like Dressing Up - See This Year's Must-Have's For Halloween
So for two hours Saturday night, in a live broadcast on Cox's Channel 4, teachers dressed to the nines filled the renovated Balboa Theater to watch a show which included musical acts chosen from the best student groups. l loved a hilarious male quartet called the "Acafellas"--they claim they had the name before Fox used it in "Glee". It was like the Academy Awards, except teachers were the stars. And in a year where California has been forced to slash education spending, the fact that sponsors gave of their time, talent, and money to make teachers feel special was...special.
So who won? Out of 44 nominees and ten finalists, five Teachers of the Year were chosen.
There was Donna Farquar, who helps kids learn English in the Santee School District, a woman who looks and sounds like she was born to help. Mike Love teaches math at Mt. Miguel High School, where he mentors minority students and takes time each week to share a motivational or humorous reading "to make the formal learning fun and accessible." Kelly Kovacic is young and wide-eyed, full of energy and hope as she educates low-income students at the Preuss School with the goal of preparing them for college. She let's these under privileged kids know college is possible. In fact, anything is possible. Eric Mabrey could not have been recognized at a more meaningful moment. He created the music program at Olympian High School and now senses the budget ax like a wolf at the door. Arts programs are always the first to go, and he told me how important it is to keep arts programming alive. "It can change lives." Most interesting to me was Melanie Tolan, a petite brunette who teaches English, history, and physical education...at Juvenile Hall. She spends her life teaching young men that it is possible to be a successful student on the outside. I can only imagine the challenges she faces now as budgets for both education and the prison system are shrinking. Still, she tries to provide a safe haven and a nurturing learning environment, setting daily goals for her students. "Their future is important to me."
Congratulations to the winners. Forget celebrating actors and the Oscars. I think San Diego is on to something. Yes, it took a lot of time and effort (and money) to put on a show, but it may have given teachers in the audience just the boost they need to keep at it, to try harder, to make a difference, to be creative, at a time when they are dealing with bigger class sizes and fewer dollars. And that is a good investment.
Questions? Comments? Funny Stories? Email
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a4164403f6bec8e16a7f447a210cf367 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/til-debt-do-us-part-will-premiere-on-cnbc-on-november-7th-all-times-are-et.html | "TIL DEBT DO US PART" Will Premiere on CNBC on November 7th (ALL TIMES ARE ET) | "TIL DEBT DO US PART" Will Premiere on CNBC on November 7th (ALL TIMES ARE ET)
"TIL DEBT DO US PART" will premiere on CNBC on Saturday, November 7th at 10PM and 1AM. Two 30 minute episodes will air back to back every Saturday night until further notice.
With ninety percent of marriages breaking up because of money problems, it's no surprise that many couples are in desperate need of help tackling their financial issues. In "Til Debt Do Us Part," renowned financial author and columnist, Gail Vaz-Oxlade takes a tough-love approach to getting couples in financial crisis to face reality. With the sensitivity of a therapist and the toughness of a CFO, Gail asks hard questions and pushes couples to face each other and reality. Some couples are on the verge of bankruptcy - others are just getting by, but headed for disaster - either way, they all learn how to work their way out of debt and get the skills they need to plan for their financial future.About CNBC:CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 340 million homes worldwide, including more than 95 million households in the United States and Canada. The network's Business Day programming (weekdays from 5:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and also includes reports from CNBC news bureaus worldwide. Additionally, CNBC viewers can manage their individual investment portfolios and gain additional in-depth information from on-air reports by accessing http://www.cnbc.com.Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBC Universal Media Village Web site at http://nbcumv.com/cnbc/.
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8cb25fca2c13e1195986a23635a2a892 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/web-extra-the-obama-health-care-trade.html | With the Senate Finance Committee voting on sweeping health care overhaul Tuesday, how are the Fast Money traders gaming the space?This content is only available online - you won't find these trades on TV.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Web Extra
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your message to .Trader disclosure: On October 12, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MGM), (MSFT), (BX), (POT); Seymour Owns Shares Of Gazprom; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Call Spreads, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (MSFT), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM), (PLCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Terranova Owns (JPM), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS)For JoeTerranova:Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA) For Craig BergerFBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ONNN)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (BRCM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (NVDA)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MRVL)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LLTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MXIM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATML)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LSI)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (SLAB)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MSCC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (QCOM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATHR)For David TroneFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (GS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (MS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (JPM) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Next 3 MonthsFor Christa QuarlesThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Managed Or Co-Managed A Public Offering Of Securities For (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (GOOG) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Investment Banking Services To (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (YHOO) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services To And/Or Has Agreed To Provide Services Or Has A Client Relationship With (YHOO)
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082ba87c54f04a35003f8661acee0d35 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/12/your-first-move-for-tuesday-october-13th.html | Here’s our Fast Money Final Trade. Our gang gives you tomorrow’s best trades, right now.
Tim Seymour suggests longBunge as “a great global integrated ag play.” (Scroll down for more on this trade.)
Guy Adami recommends longBlackstone.
Joe Terranova prefers longKroger on a JPMorgan upgrade.
Karen Finerman thinks Children’s Place is a buy.
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Big Freeze – The Trade Early snow is blanketing parts of the heartland sparking havoc with all kinds of outdoor activities including Game 3 of the NL playoffs. Can you trade early snow?
I’d look at corn, wheat and soy, says Tim Seymour. The weather is sending prices higher and that should help farmers buy more fertilizer. I’d put fertilizer companies such as Potash and Bunge mentioned above on the radar.I’d play it with DBA, adds Joe Terranova. And I also think the cold snap is bullish for heating oil. HollyCorp and Frontier are two names also worth watching.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Final Trades
Click here to see other Final Trade posts.
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! Prefer to keep it between us? You can still send questions and comments to .Trader disclosure: On October 12, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (BTU), (MSFT), (NUE); Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (F), (MGM), (MSFT), (BX), (POT); Seymour Owns Shares Of Gazprom; Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC), (BAC) Calls, (BAC) Call Spreads, (BAC) Preferred; Finerman Owns (BAC), (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (CSCO), (MSFT), (TGT), (WMT), (YUM), (PLCE); Finerman's Firm Owns (WLP) Calls; Finerman's Firm Owns (UNH) Calls; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO); Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (WFC) Preferred; Terranova Owns (JPM), (NOV); Terranova Is Short (GRMN); Terranova Is Short (CCL); Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Gold Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2009 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Owns Dec. 2010 Crude Oil Futures; Terranova Works For (VRTS)For JoeTerranova:Terranova Is Chief Market Strategist Of Virtus Investment Partners, Ltd.Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CAL)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DLR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBA)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (UA) For Craig BergerFBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ONNN)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (INTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (BRCM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (NVDA)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MRVL)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LLTC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MXIM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATML)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (LSI)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (SLAB)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (MSCC)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (QCOM)FBR Capital Markets Is A Market Maker Or Liquidity Provider For (ATHR)For David TroneFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (GS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (MS) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (JPM) In Next 3 MonthsFPK Or Affiliates May Seek Investment Banking Compensation From (C) In Next 3 MonthsFor Christa QuarlesThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Managed Or Co-Managed A Public Offering Of Securities For (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Received Investment Banking Compensation From (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (GOOG) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Investment Banking Services To (GOOG) In Past 12 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Expects To Receive/Seek Investment Banking Comensation From (YHOO) In Next 3 MonthsThomas Weisel Partners LLC Or Affiliate Has Provided Or Is Providing Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related Services To And/Or Has Agreed To Provide Services Or Has A Client Relationship With (YHOO)
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346aacfa6081fa95ae50f230f1362b18 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/asian-equities-may-face-1015-correction.html | Asian Equities May Face 10-15% Correction | Asian Equities May Face 10-15% Correction
Despite the current amount of liquidity in the markets, Asian stocks still face downside risks of up to 15 percent by the end of 2009, said Daniel McCormack, equities strategist at Macquarie Securities.
VIDEO5:4105:41Asian Equities Losing Attractiveness
"Valuations are excessive, the cycle is starting to ease off a bit, the risks in my mind are clearly to the downside for Asian equities, probably about 10 to 15 percent into year end," McCormack told CNBC's Asia Squawk Box.
"There is going to continue to be a tailwind from money flows but I do think markets will fall despite that. And the reason is that the risk/reward at these kind of levels is poor," he said.
At current valuations, you have got about 2x price to book, about 14.6x forward earnings for Asia-ex, if history is a guide, your odds of losing money, whether you are a three-month or 12-month investor, are over 60 percent based purely on valuations alone, he explained.
"(The) key cyclical indicators that I look at are now starting to turn down," McCormack revealed. Things like earnings revisions, the U.S. earnings season, new orders minus inventories series, and the OECD leading indicators, though it comes out with a significant lag, could well be turning down, McCormack said, and that could easily happen in October.
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86ec40f2a2ee7a026eb464aaa61174ad | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/banking-on-earnings.html | Banking On Earnings | Banking On Earnings
JP Morgan Chase will be front and center as the first bank to report numbers for the third quarter. But ahead of tomorrow's report financials stocks are taking a breather. Financials have had a strong run since the March 9th lows, with the KBW banking index advancing more than 150% since. The sector led the equity market lower today and a big part of that was the result of Meredith Whitney's downgrade on Goldman Sachs
.
She reduced the stock's rating to neutral from buy, saying that its rapid rise since Q2 limits the upside potential. Whitney also added that bank stocks are "at least fairly valued" and that she is now "far less bullish" on banks than in the last quarter.
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87944fcd0197738846dc6849b73094c7 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/bofa-to-turn-over-documents-on-merrill-buy.html | BofA to Turn Over Documents on Merrill Buy | BofA to Turn Over Documents on Merrill Buy
Bank of America's board voted Friday to waive attorney client privilege and turn over documents requested New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, according to a person close to the attorney general's investigation.
The decision suggests BofA is taking a more conciliatory approach to dealing with Cuomo in the wake of CEO Ken Lewis's decision to step down as CEO at the end of this year.
Bank of America branch, New York City.Oliver Quillia for cnbc.com
Separately, a corporate law judge on Monday refused to throw out a lawsuit blaming Lewis and the board of directors for failing shareholders in its purchase of Merrill Lynch.
But Vice Chancellor Leo Strine said the case could be an "exceedingly difficult" one to prove against outside directors, which means all members of the board except Lewis, Dow Jones said.
Last Tuesday a team from Cuomo's office met with BofA's lawyers. Initially the bank resisted the attorney general's request to waive attorney-client privilege and turn over additional documents linked to Bank of America's purchase of Merrill last year.
But at the meeting the bank's lawyers said they were reconsidering the bank's stance, the source said.
According to the source, on Thursday the bank's lawyers told the attorney general they would present his request for additional information to the board and that the board approved the request Friday.
Bank of America did not return calls seeking comment. Cuomo's office declined comment.
Cuomo has been investigating whether material information was withheld from shareholders prior to the Merrill deal being finalized. The questions center on what and when Bank of America executives knew about Merrill's mounting losses and the billions in bonuses paid to Merrill employees and why this information wasn't shared with investors.
Some BofA executives deposed by Cuomo said in withholding certain information about the deal, they acted on advice of counsel.
Citing attorney-client privilege the bank declined to hand over records the attorney general's office believes are critical in determining whether the executives did indeed act on counsel's advice, or did so on their own.
The source says its likely executives, including CEO Ken Lewis and Chief Financial Officer Joe Price will be deposed again, once the attorney general's team has a chance to review the documents.
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84574923a25e9b852068d8513c909f67 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/buffalo-wing-prices-get-out-of-control.html | Buffalo Wing Prices Get Out Of Control | Buffalo Wing Prices Get Out Of Control
Buffalo Chicken WingsPhoto By: Rick Audet
We told you in January about the plight of the chicken wing. The nation’s largest producer of wings filed for bankruptcy and the demand of the playoffs and the Super Bowl just drove prices through the roof, or so we thought.
Well, today the New York Times has this most amazing statistic: “In seven of the last 11 months, wholesale wing prices have been higher than breast prices.”
The reason this happened is simple. The wing just became too popular. It started with the wing specific places like Buffalo Wild Wings and continued to grow to places like KFC . Now it’s seemingly offered at every pizza place.
Pizza Hut’s WingStreet is available at 2,900 stores and expanding and it’s not just your standard wing sauce – they offer eight different varieties. Since 2003, the pizza chain says they’ve sold more than 1 billion wings.
How crazy has it gotten? Earlier this week, 7-Eleven announced that they were getting into chicken wings.
Wings have been a good add on to menus, but at some point - and I have to think it’s pretty close - the model is going to start cracking and places will have to abandon the wing. Or at least, as the New York Times suggests, go boneless.
Questions? Comments? SportsBiz@cnbc.com
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ff77a20313a217cbf8142c97d5e9617f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/busch-a-positive-tax-shift.html | Busch: A Positive Tax Shift | Busch: A Positive Tax Shift
One of the potential major negatives for US companies doing business overseas was the potential for a tax increase by the Obama administration to raise $200 billion. This was floated as an idea and Jason Furman communicated it to the US international corporate community by saying, "We need the money." This is a theme that will be repeated over and over as Congress and the White House attempt to pay for their programs and to contain the deficit.
However, corporate America pushed back. Changing existing tax treaties/arrangements with other countries is an extremely delicate and difficult task. Essentially, it creates more negative unintended consequences than positive tax flows into the US Treasury's coffers.
Slideshow: How Your Tax Dollars Are Spent
The WSJ reports that the Obama administration's back tracking on this issue, "....suggests that an administration that was critical of business at the height of the financial crisis is becoming more accommodating. The White House, through a series of presidential lunches and other outreach, is trying to soothe tensions with multinational companies." If this is true, this is a very positive development.
What I hope to see going forward from Congress and the White House is an attitude of getting the right environment for getting people back to work. This is different from the government giving people jobs and creating increased deficit spending to do it. This is about a mindset that says "I wake up every morning trying to find ways to help businesses create jobs". Currently, I don't see this attitude, but the dropping of the international tax idea is a good start.
Gold Hits New Record High as Dollar Slips
As the criticism grows over the lack of jobs created by the $787 billion stimulus, this is the direction we need to see coming from D.C. It would signal a shift from a dogmatic "government-is-the-answer" approach to a pragmatic "business-creates-jobs" approach. This would truly signal a change that will lead to jobs and that the markets will love. Let's see if more is coming....Given how negative and detrimental the past approach has been towards business in the US, everything looks up from here.
CNBC.com Guest Blogs - Where The Experts Weigh in on Money, Markets and What Matters
________________________ Andrew B. Busch is Global FX Strategist at BMO Capital Markets, a recognized expert on the world financial markets and how these markets are impacted by political events, and a frequent CNBC contributor. You can comment on his piece and
and you can follow him on Twitter at
.
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1f81d125a66f2d6e76e8b517bfcebb49 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/conservatives-defend-sarkozy-sons-bid-for-big-job.html | Conservatives Defend Sarkozy Son's Bid for Big Job | Conservatives Defend Sarkozy Son's Bid for Big Job
President Nicolas Sarkozy's 23-year-old son and fellow conservatives are defending his bid for a highly visible job overseeing France's biggest business district.
Critics say Jean Sarkozy, a law student at the Sorbonne, is too inexperienced to become chairman of EPAD. The quasi-governmental agency oversees real estate and other administration in La Defense, a sprawling complex of skyscrapers west of Paris where 150,000 people work.
Jean Sarkozy told the Le Parisien newspaper on Tuesday that whatever he accomplishes, "my legitimacy will always be on trial."
Government spokesman Luc Chatel said on LCI television that leftists were staging a "manhunt" for the president's son. Higher Education Minister Valerie Pecresse called the young man "the natural candidate" for the post even though he has no college degree yet.
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1c971c9c22abffd3176cdb2f1bba555a | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/earnings-preview-csx-bullish-edge.html | Earnings Preview: CSX Bullish Edge? | Earnings Preview: CSX Bullish Edge?
Rail and intermodal company, CSX is scheduled to report after the bell today. While it has beaten EPS expectations 3 of the past 4 quarters, it has missed revenue expectations in the past three quarters according to First Call data. Before then, it beat revenue targets for 5 straight quarters.
The company is up 37.6% YTD compared to the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is up 9.8% over the same period. The company has also outperformed other rail companies like Burlington Northern and Union Pacific which are up ~8% and ~24% for the year.
Historically, earnings are a good time for CSX's share price. According to data from MarketHistory.com, CSX has rallied after 7 of its past 8 earnings releases (see chart below) and has gained an average of 3.8% in the month that follows earnings.
Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com
bythenumbers.cnbc.com
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7e6fd4b1393f12c116a8c14ce7054471 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/earnings-roundup-oct-13.html | Earnings Roundup: Oct. 13 | Earnings Roundup: Oct. 13
What follows is a roundup of corporate earnings reports for Tuesday, Oct. 13.
Highlights include the tech giant Intel and the pharmaceutical company Johnson and Johnson.
Johnson and Johnson's third quarter ended Sept. 27. Intel's third quarter ended on Aug. 31.
BEFORE THE BELL
Johnson & JohnsonThe health care manufacturer and pharmaceutical company reported earnings of $1.20 per share on revenue of $15.08 billion. Analysts expected earnings per share to fall within the range of $1.06 per share to $1.17 per share. Read Full Story
Get Real-Time Quotes for Johnson & Johnson
The technology company reported earnings of 33 cents a share. The company also posted revenue of $9.39 biliion. Read Full Story
Get Real-Time Quotes for Intel
Get Real-Time Quotes for CSX
*Earnings data based off of Thomson Reuters
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9b1c59ed8296dea7e251c6f633f6c093 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/earnings-roundup-oct-14.html | Earnings Roundup: Oct. 14 | Earnings Roundup: Oct. 14
What follows is a roundup of corporate earnings reports for Wednesday, Oct. 14.
Some of Wednesday's highlights include JPMorgan Chase and the health care company Abbott Labs, who is expecting positive revenue growth.
Other companies reporting include Host Hotels, Crown Holdings and AptarGroup.
BEFORE THE BELL
JPMorgan Chase
The financial services company beat expectation and posted earnings of 82 cents. The firm also reported revenue of $26.62 billion.
Get Real-Time Quotes for JPMorgan
Abbott Labs
The pharmaceutical company posted earnings of 92 cents on revenue of $7.76 billion for its third quarter ended Sept. 30. Analysts estimated the company would report earnings between 88 cent to 91 cents.
Get Real-Time Quotes for Abbott Labs
WW Grainger
The industrial supplier posted earnings of $1.88 per share. The company , who spans 153 countries, reported revenue of $1.59 billion.
Get Real-Time Quotes for WW Grainger
Host Hotels
The parent company of hotel brands such as the Marriot, Ritz-Carlton, Four Seasons and the Hilton, posted funds from operation of 11 cents for its third quarter ended Sept. 11. The company also reported revenue of $912 million, beating analysts estimates.
Get Real-Time Quotes for Host Hotels
AFTER THE BELL
AptarGroup
The packaging company posted earnings of 49 cents per share for it's third quarter ended Sept. 30. The company also posted revenue of $473.7 million.
Get Real-Time Quotes for AptarGroup
Xilinx
The semiconductor producer posted earnings of 25 cents per share for their fiscal second quarter ended Sept. 30. The company also reported revenue of $415 million.
Get Real-Time Quotes for Xilinx
» Q3 Earnings Preview: Top Expectations for Growth
*Earnings data based off of Thomson Reuters, and excludes extraordinary items.
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87e3f4876ef6b5d09e464dcb87fb7d13 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/first-on-cnbc-cnbc-transcript-fdic-chairman-sheila-bair-on-cnbcs-squawk-box-today-tuesday-october-13th.html | FIRST ON CNBC: CNBC TRANSCRIPT: FDIC CHAIRMAN SHEILA BAIR ON CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX" TODAY, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13TH | FIRST ON CNBC: CNBC TRANSCRIPT: FDIC CHAIRMAN SHEILA BAIR ON CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX" TODAY, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13TH
Sheila BairAP
WHEN: TODAY, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 13TH
WHERE: CNBC'S "SQUAWK BOX"
Following is the unofficial transcript of a FIRST ON CNBC interview with FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair today, Tuesday, October 13th on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
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CAMDEN FINE: I THINK THAT IS AN ABSOLUTE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE FDIC.BECAUSE HOW THE MEDIA WOULD PORTRAY, THAT IT WOULD BE SEEN AS A BAILOUT FOR NOT ONLY THE FDIC BUT EVERY BANK IN THE UNITED STATES. WE'RE VERY PROUD OF THE FDIC BECAUSE IT'S ALWAYS BEEN BANK FUNDED. A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THAT ON THE STREET. BUT BANKS HAVE FUNDED THE FDIC SINCE DAY ONE, AND I THINK THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FUND THE FDIC.
KERNEN: THAT WAS CAM FINE. FIRST HE WAS TALKING ABOUT IF THE FDIC WENT TO TREASURY AND THAT WOULDN'T BE GOOD. THEN HE WAS TALKING ABOUT A LOT OF THINGS. WE'RE GOING TO TALK WITH SHEILA BAIR ABOUT ALL OF THIS, THE ROLE FDIC HAS AND THE OPTIONS IT HAS. YOU'RE GOING TO ALSO BE IN FRONT OF CONGRESS AGAIN, SHEILA BAIR. YOU'LL BE A WITNESS. THANK YOU FOR COMING ON VERY MUCH.HE SAID A COUPLE OF THINGS. THE PREPAYMENT, DIDN'T LIKE ASPECTS OF THAT, THREE YEARS BOOKING IT AS AN ASSET WHEN THEY HAVEN'T REALLY DONE IT. IS IT POSSIBLE YOU'D GO LESS THAN THREE YEARS OR IS THAT THE WAY TO DO IT?
BAIR: I THINK WE NEED THE THREE-YEAR PREPAYMENT. WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE ENOUGH OF A CUSHION FOR LIQUIDITY NEEDS. WE NEED CASH. OUR CASH POSITION IS STRONG RIGHT NOW. NEXT YEAR IT COULD GO NEGATIVE. OBVIOUSLY WE HAVE LOTS OF AUTHORITY TO BORROW FROM TREASURY. WE WANT TO AVOID THAT.
KERNEN: LIKE BAMBOO SHOOTS IN YOUR FINGERNAILS?= IS THAT OVERSTATING IT.
BAIR: THAT MAY BE OVERSTATING IT A BIT. ALWAYS-OF- I ALWAYS SAY NEVER SAY NEVER.A LOT OF DISTRESS THE INDUSTRY FACES IS ABOUT THE ECONOMY, WHICH IS BEYOND OUR CONTROL.BASED ON OUR CURRENT PROJECTIONSI THINK WE CONTINUE TO RELY ON INDUSTRY-FUNDED RESERVES AND RESOURCES TO GET THROUGH THIS. I THINK THIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN WHO THE FDIC IS. WE ARE INDUSTRY FUNDED, DEPOSIT INSURANCE A BENEFIT THE INDUSTRY HAS PAID FOR AND SHOULD PAY FOR.I THINK THEY TAKE PRIDE IN PAYING FOR IT.EVERYONE HAS BAILOUT FATIGUE. WE WANT TO AVOID THAT. NEVER SAY NEVER. BASED ON PROJECTIONS I THINK WE CAN CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE INDUSTRY TO FUND THE FDIC.
KERNEN: WE ALL GO HOME ON FRIDAYS AND SEE THE BANKS BEING CLOSED. I'M JUST WONDERING, I DON'T KNOWIF YOU HAVE A MONITOR, ARE WE STILL ON RISING UPWARD SLOPE? WILL COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE CAUSE THE NUMBER TO KEEP INCREASING OR ARE WE STARTING TO SEE WHERE THE NACENT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS HELPING THE DECREASE, WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT EVERY FRIDAY.
BAIR: WELL, BANKS ARE GENERALLY LAG ECONOMIC RECOVERY. IF WE'RE SURE THE ECONOMY IS RECOVERING, ON AN UPHILL CLIMB, BANKS WILL LAG BY A COUPLE OF QUARTERS. THAT'S HISTORICALLY BEEN THE CASE. I'D LIKE TO SEE MORE QUARTERS OF EVIDENCE WHAT THE BANKING TRENDS AND ECONOMIC TRENDS ARE. I CAN SAY MORE DEFINITIVELY WHAT WE'RE GETTING OUT OF THIS. OUR PROJECTIONS IS THAT BANK FAILURES WILL CONTINUE AT A GOOD CLIP THROUGHOUT 2010. WE'RE PREPARED FOR IT, READY FOR IT. INITIALLY WE WERE WORKING THROUGH LOANS AND HIGH-RISK INVESTMENTS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MADE. NOW WE'RE DEAL WITH MORE TRADITIONAL CREDITS DISTRESS, LOANS THAT GOOD WHEN THEY WERE MADE AND GOING BAD NOW BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. THE RATE OF HEALING THE ECONOMY WILL DRIVE THE RATE OF THE HEALING OF THE BANKING SECTOR.
BOND: GOOD MORNING, SHEILA.KIT BOND. GOOD MORNING, SENATOR. GOOD TO TALK WITH YOU AGAIN.THANKS SO MUCH FOR BEING ON.
BAIR: SURE.
BOND: WE JUST HAD A CONVERSATION WITH CAM FINE. ONE OF THE THINGS I RAISED WITH HIM, I THOUGHT WHEN WE PASSED THE T.A.R.P. THAT THAT MONEY WAS GOING TO BE USED TO TAKE THE TOXIC ASSETS OUT OF THE SYSTEM. I KNOW YOU HAVE ONLY THE AUTHORITY TO GO WITH BANKS.I WOULD BE A STRONG PROPONENT OF EXPANDING YOUR AUTHORITY TO GO AFTER BANK HOLDING COMPANIES. IF THAT IS GOING TO COST MORE MONEY THAT HASN'T COME FROM THE TRADITIONAL BANK SOURCES, I HOPE THAT THE T.A.R.P. MONEY WOULD BE USED TO TAKE OUT TOXIC ASSETS. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE TOXIC ASSETS ARE STILL IN THE SYSTEM CAUSING COUNTERPARTY RISK AND MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUALS TO GET LOANS?
BAIR: WELL, I DO THINK, WE WOULD LIKE A MORE ROBUST MECHANISM FOR GETTING THE TOXIC ASSETS OFF OF THE BANK BALANCE SHEETS.WE DON'T HAVE AUTHORITY BEYOND BANK TO THE BANK HOLDING COMPANIES AS YOU POINT OUT, BUT WE HAVE LAUNCHED A PROGRAM, WHATWE CALL OUR LEGACY LOAN PROGRAM, WE TEST RAN A FUNDING MECHANISM,BASICALLY THE IDEA IS THE FDIC PROVIDES SOME FUNDING TO SELL THESE ASSETS AND IMPROVE THE PRICE A LITTLE BIT BY ADDRESSING THE LIQUIDITY DISCOUNT THAT YOU'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW FOR PROVIDING FINANCING. WE RAN A TEST RUN WITH RECEIVERSHIP ASSETS AND GOT A GOOD PRICE. 71 CENTS FOR ALT-A NONTRADITIONAL MORTGAGES WHICH WAS A VERY GOOD PRICE SO WE WOULD LIKE TO EXPAND THAT PROGRAM AND MAKE IT MORE GENERALLY AVAILABLE. YOU'RE RIGHT, THE LONGER THE DISTRESSED LOANS ARE ON BANK BALANCE SHEETS, IT DOES BUILD CONSERVATISM INTO BANK MANAGEMENT THINKING THEY'RE NOT QUITE SURE WHAT THE ULTIMATE LOSSES WILL BE. THEY NEED TO RESERVE HEAVILY AGAINST THEM F WE CAN GET THEM OFF THE BANK BALANCE SHEET, IT'S HARD BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO TAKE A LOSS WHEN YOU SELL THEM, BUT THAT BOLSTERS BANKS' ABILITY TO RAISE MORE CAPITAL AND DO A BETTER JOB OF LENDING INTO THE ECONOMY.
BOND: SPEAKING OF CAPITAL, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MORE REGULATORY BELLS AND WHISTLES FROM WASHINGTON AND THERE ARE SEGMENTS THAT HAVEN'T BEEN REGULATED, MORTGAGE ORIGINATORS THAT NEED TO BE REGULATED. BUT I'M WONDERING, SHOULDN'T THERE BE MORE DISCUSSION ABOUT CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS. IT SEEMS TO ME MUCH OF THE FAILURE NOT ONLY IN THE INDIVIDUAL HOME MARKET WHERETHEY HAD NO OR LOW DOWN PAYMENT LOANS BUT THROUGHOUT SYSTEM HAS BEEN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DEALING WITH ALMOST -- WITH TREMENDOUS LEVERAGE RATIOS. SHOULDN'T THERE BE AN EMPHASIS ON GETTING SKIN IN THE GAME FOR THE INSTITUTIONS AS WELL AS FOR THE MORTGAGE BORROWERS?
BAIR: WELL, YES, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY TOO MUCH LEVERAGE GOING INTO THIS CRISIS, PARTICULARLY FOR LARGER INSTITUTIONS, SMALLER INSTITUTIONS BECAUSE THEY CAN FAIL AND INVESTORS KNOW THEY CAN FAIL TEND TO HOLD MORE CAPITAL, HAVE TO HOLD HIGHER CAPITAL LEVELS, THE LARGER INSTITUTIONS WERE MORE HIGHLY LEVERAGED, COMMERCIAL BANKS WERE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE THAN INVESTMENT BANKS OR CERTAINLY FANNIE AND FREDDIE, THERE WAS TOO MUCH LEVERAGE ACROSS THESYSTEM. WE NEED TO BOLSTER CAPITAL RESERVES INCREASE RESTRAINTS ON LEVERAGE, NOT JUST ON COMMERCIAL BANKS BUT ON FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ACROSS THE BOARD. BUT WE NEED TO BE VERY CAREFUL IN HOW WE DO THAT, IT NEEDS TO BE A GRADUAL PROCESS BECAUSE IF WE SPIKE UP CAPITAL LEVELS TOO MUCH NOW, IT COULD IMPAIR BANKS' ABILITY TO LEND AND WE NEED THEM TO LEND INTO THE ECONOMY RIGHT NOW.
QUICK: SHEILA BAIR, EARLIER. CAM FINE SAID HE'S VERY WORRIED ABOUT THE 12-1500 BANKS THAT RELY ON THE AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY AND MAKE THEIR LOANS THERE, THAT MAY BE THE NEXT BUBBLE. IS THAT ON YOUR RADAR SCREEN?
BAIR: WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THAT FOR SOME TIME THAT ASSET CATEGORY SEEMS TO BE HOLD BE UP PRETTY WELL, WE BUTT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING THAT AND IT'S STILL EARLY TO TELL TO WHAT EXTENT IT IS GOING TO PROVIDE ANY KIND OF SERIOUS PROBLEM BUT WE ARE MONITORING THAT.
KERNEN: WHAT DID THE FDIC WHAT PROBLEM DID YOU HAVE WITH THAT APPRAISAL OF CITIGROUP MANAGEMENT AND SHOULD WE ASSUME THAT WITH KEN LEWIS GONE THAT MAYBE THERE WILL BE INCREASED EFFORTS TO OUST VIKRAM PANDIT?
BAIR: I DON'T COMMENT ON AN OPEN OPERATING INSTITUTION.
KERNEN: YOU CAN'T-
BAIR: NO, CANNOT DO IT.
BOND: NICE TRY. A FOR EFFORT.
BAIR: YOU CAN TRY.
QUICK: LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT A PIECE LLOYD BLEINKFEIN HAS IN THE "FINANCIAL TIMES," HE SAYS IT'S NOT ONLY WHO THE REGULATOR IS IN THIS NEW WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT THIS IT IS WHAT THEY CAN SEE HE THINKS IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT YOU SEE EVERYTHING THAT'S ONLY ON THE BALANCE SHEET BUT OFF THE BALANCE SHEETS AND THAT HE THINKS LOOKING AT THINGS WITH FAIR MARKET VALUE IS VERY IMPORTANT. DO YOU AGREE?
BAIR: WELL, YOU KNOW, IF I DID NOT SEE HIS OP-ED BUT I DO NOT THINKWE SHOULD GO TO FAIR VALUING ALL ASSETS. LOANS THAT ARE HOLD TO MATURITY THE ACCOUNTING RIGHT NOW IS APPROPRIATE. IT IS IDIOSYNCRATIC NATURE OF THE CREDOT QUALITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL LOANS. THEY'RE NOT LIQUID MARKETS THE WAY YOU WOULD HAVE WITH SECURITIES SO, NO, I THINK THE ACCOUNTING TREATMENT FOR LOANS HELD TO MATURITY IS RIGHT. IF YOU WENT TO A DIFFERENT REGIME AND REQUIRED FAIR VALUE, THERE WOULD BE A LOT OF VOLATILITY ON BANK BALANCE SHEETS M IN GOOD TIME, YOU WOULDPROBABLY INFLATE THE VALUE OF THOSE ASSETS JUST AS YOU WOULD UNDERSTATE THE VALUE IN TIMES OFDISTRESS.SO I THINK THE CURRENT ACCOUNTING FOR BANKS IS APPROPRIATE AND WOULD NOT WANT TO SEE FAIR VALUE EXPANDED
BOND: THAT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE
KERNEN: WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE AND WE EVER DO GET AROUND TO THE REGULATION AFTER HEALTHCARE HOW DOES IT FINALLY LOOK CHAIRMAN WHICH AGENCY IS GOING TO WIN HERE TREASURY THE FED OR THE FDIC
BAIR: WELL I THINK WE ARE ALL STILL I THINK THERE ARE MORE AREAS OF AGREEMENT THEN DISAGREEMENT WE VERY MUCH FEAR THE CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN ANY SINGLE REGULATOR WHETHER IT IS THE FED OR A NEW REGULATOR WE THINK THAT BIG REGULATORS TOO MUCH BECOME CAPTIVE OF LARGE INSTITUTIONS AND THAT WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATION IN THE INDUSTRY WHEN WE NEED LESS CONSOLIDATION IN THE INDUSTRY SO WE THINK WE NEED MORE MARKET DISIPLINE THROUGH ROBUST RESOLUTION MECHANISM THAT SAYS LARGE INSTITUTIONS IF YOU GET INTO TROUBLE YOU'RE GOING TO OPUT INTO RECEIVERSHIP WE THINK WE NEED A SYSTEM OF RISK COUNCIL MADE OF ALL THE REGULATORS HAS RULE MAKING AUTHORITY THAT CAN HIGHER STANDARDS THAT CAN SERVE AS A CHECK ON REGULATORY CAPTURE WHEN AN INDIVIDUAL REGULATOR ISN'T DOING THEIR JOB AND WE ALSO ARE VERY STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONSUMER AGENCY AND I THINK ON A BROAD PARAMETOR THERE IS A LOT OF OVERLAP AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE FDIC THE FED AND THE TREASURY
KERNEN: ALRIGHT YOU WERE VERY NICE TO THIS MISSOURI GUY EVEN THOUGH
BAIR: FELLOW MID-WESTERNER
KERNEN: IS THAT WHAT IT IS SO THAT'S EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE INTERSTATE.. THANK YOU SHEILA BAIR.. NICE TO SEE YOUAbout CNBC:CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news, providing real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 340 million homes worldwide, including more than 95 million households in the United States and Canada. The network's Business Day programming (weekdays from 5:00 a.m.-7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and also includes reports from CNBC news bureaus worldwide. Additionally, CNBC viewers can manage their individual investment portfolios and gain additional in-depth information from on-air reports by accessing http://www.cnbc.com.Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBC Universal Media Village Web site at http://nbcumv.com/cnbc/.
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171188477a8f12867340244b91805b27 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/healthy-skepticism-abounds-even-as-stocks-keep-rising.html | 'Healthy Skepticism' Abounds Even as Stocks Keep Rising | 'Healthy Skepticism' Abounds Even as Stocks Keep Rising
Investors have yet to buy in fully to the stock rally even though prices have surged more than 50 percent. But that caution has actually given rise to hopes that the rally still has legs.
A New York Stock Exchange trader.Oliver Quillia for CNBC.com
"Healthy skepticism" is a phrase used frequently by market pros these days to describe sentiment among investors who are optimistic about Wall Street's performance over the past seven months but cognizant that things could turn around just as quickly.
"Anyone who has half a brain should realize that we're way ahead of where the economy is," says Dave Rovelli, managing director of US equity trading for Canaccord Adams. "There are a lot of good reasons to have skepticism."
Though economists are proclaiming that the recession is over, investors are wary over how quickly recovery will occur and the continued pressure that high unemployment is placing on consumers. Moreover, there continues to be widespread sentiment that the rally can't go on forever—the Standard & Poor's 500 is up more than 60 percent since early March—and a pullback is in the wings.
Indeed, a spate of sentiment metrics indicates that rather than piling back into the market, investors are entering cautiously:
BoA Merrill Lynch Global Research said its Sell-Side Indicator still shows that investors are below the normal 60 percent equity allocation in portfolios. "This gives us confidence that there is further room for sentiment and the market to rise before we would consider investors' bullishness to be overdone," the firm said in a note to clients.Just 35.1 percent of investors have bullish sentiment, according to the most recent reading from the American Association of Individual Investors. That's below the normal level of just below 39 percent.A TD Ameritrade survey showed 45 percent think this is a good time to invest, which the firm said is positive but still reflective of some hesitation.
The upshot, portfolio managers say, is that investors are getting more comfortable with the market but continue to look for safety rather than just an arbitrary technical level to capitalize on a quick rally.
"Healthy skepticism is a good way of saying it," says Nadav Baum, managing director of investments at BPU Investment Management in Pittsburgh. "They're actually looking at market fundamentals. They're getting away from the whole thing that drove (the market slump) which was fear of the abyss."
Panic seems to have left the exchange, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index a shadow of what it was during the depths of the financial crisis.
In turn, the surge, violent though it seems, has been mostly orderly, with few days seeing the gains of more than 2 percent that are more prevalent during bear market rallies.
"Herd mentality doesn't come on the upside, and that's a good thing," Baum says. "It's about companies, it's about earnings and it's also about people that feel like they're going to miss something."
At the same time, short sellers—who took a large share of the blame for the market's 60 percent drop—are more and more leaving the market and abandoning hope of a much-anticipated correction that has yet to take place.
Short interest, a measure of how much investors are betting on the market going lower, dropped 3.4 percent for the last 15 days of September on the New York Stock Exchange. Short interest on the Nasdaq, which is heavily weighted toward technology shares, fell 1.4 percent in the same period.
"People are still too scared to put shorts on," Rovelli says. "What a lot of investors are doing is buying puts. Premiums on puts are higher. But they're willing to pay a higher premium to protect their positions, just because they're so skeptical."
Options activity overall is decreasing.
VIDEO0:0000:00Checking Market Close
Average daily volume of options contracts fell about 23 percent in September from the previous year, according to the International Securities Exchange. Options traders continue to be wary of a market correction, but don't want to miss the unrelenting upside.
"It's tempered enthusiasm. There are so many people wary of a pullback in the market," says Andrew Wilkinson, senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. "A market feeds on its own momentum and that momentum is on the upside."
Traders believe the government will step in to prevent any major moves lower, Wilkinson adds.
"I find it hazardous to be one of those people wanting to short the market. That kind of philosophy is entrenched at this moment and that leads people to keep buying the pullback," he says. "I find it tremendously hard to be bearish at the moment."
Slideshow: 20 Stocks Ready to Pop
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251955c0c70102b8a995ff59dc8fedd6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/hot-items-gold-gifts-and-gritty-prison-fights.html | Hot Items: Gold, Gifts and Gritty Prison Fights | Hot Items: Gold, Gifts and Gritty Prison Fights
The hot items I mentioned on the air today are ...
VIDEO0:0000:00What's Clicking on CNBC.com
Our gold coverage, which has been garnering a lot of eyeballs amid a price rally. Our gold poll, where at least two-thirds of folks think it is heading much higher, was of particular interest.
The eye-candy in our Fantasy Gift Slideshow.
And the Madoff tussle story has been getting a lot more attention that it probably deserves, considering it amounted to two elderly gentlemen shoving each other. But it did give rise to a great post in our Pony blog about possible square-offs between notable white-collar criminals.
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542b1ab6d49ec5c8b2a76b9521ed3c8d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/intel-after-the-bell.html | Intel - After the Bell | Intel - After the Bell
Today’s focus on The Bell will be Intel .
The world’s largest chipmaker is set to report earnings right after the market closes.
We’ll have full analysis of Intel’s numbers, comments from the company and a close look at what is ahead for the semi-conductor sector.
Analysts are looking for a profit of 27 cents a share in Q3. That's down 23% from a year ago, however an improvement from the previous quarter.
Here’s what we’ll be watching:
Q3 quarter revenues Gross margins What the outlook is for Q4 How are inventories in the channel are doing Overall sentiment, how the consumer responding, and signs of life on enterprise/corporate side
We spoke with Vijay Rakesh, Analyst with ThinkEquity. Rakesh makes both the bull and bear case for Intel.
The Bull Case:
-Gross margins have bottomed and will continue to improve in the future as utilization rates continue to increase as inventories are lean and end-market demand returns to a more-seasonal pattern.
-Although enterprise spending continues to be weak throughout 2009, resilience in the consumer Notebook space will continue to push up utilization rates, helping gross margins back to the low end of the corporate expectations of 55-60%.
-2010 should see better Corporate, Workstation Spend and a potential Server Refresh, which should be positive for Intel.
-Also 1H10 should see the new Intel Larrabee integrated graphics product launch.
The Bear Case:
-2H and Q4 visibility remains limited, especially sell-through post the inventory build. The company said it is seeing a strong seasonal 2H, though most skeptics argue 2H09 remains the wild card.
Don’t miss our after the bell – full Intel coverage at 4p ET today.
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The Dow 30 in Real TimeThe CNBC Stock BlogAll Tech All The Time _____________________________
Questions? Comments? Write toinvestoragenda@cnbc.com
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2880bdca9f69b70dc5c8d1657618b4ae | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/is-retail-getting-better.html | Is Retail Getting Better? | Is Retail Getting Better?
Dollar index breaking through to new lows as gold hits another high, most commodities also up 1 to 3 percent. Gold stocks up 2 to 3 percent pre-open.
Elsewhere:
1) Johnson & Johnson down 1 percent pre-open following a Q3 earnings beat ($1.20 vs. $1.13 est.) helped by continued cost cuts. Sales fell 5.3 percent - a bit more than the expected 4.4 percent decline on weak U.S. sales (down 8.1 percent overall) and particularly in U.S. pharmaceutical sales (down 19 percent) on greater competition from generic drugs.
As a result of its strong Q3 earnings beat, the Dow component also raised its full-year guidance to $4.54-$4.59 from $4.45-$4.55, above current estimates of $4.52.
2) Goldman Sachs down 2 percent pre-open, downgraded by Meredith Whitney to neutral from buy, the last buy recommendation she had. Last week Deutsche Bank initiated coverage with a Buy. Mike Mayo at Calyon was also positive on Goldman last week.
Goldman Cut to 'Neutral' by Whitney
3) Is retail getting better? Pier One up 20 percent-pre open. If there was a sick man in retail Pier One was it. A year ago, there was talk that it would be one of the casualties of the Great Credit Crunch. But after the close Pier One said margins were improving because markdown and clearance activity was being reduced. Traffic had improved, as well.
4) Johnson Controls raised its 2010 full-year guidance to $1.35-$1.45 vs. $1.44 est. as its sales are expected to improve to $31 billion vs. $30 billion est. The auto parts maker expects greater automotive production and notes that projects funded by the government's stimulus efforts will "begin to make a meaningful impact" to its top line in 2010.
5) Domino's Pizza topped estimates ($0.17 vs. $0.15 est.) as better margins on reduced costs helped boost its bottom line. Overall sales fell 1.9 percent, however, as a 2.7 percent gain in international same-store sales offset flat comps in the U.S.
6) CIT falls 21 percent to $0.82 after announcing that its Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Peek will retire by the end of the year as the commercial lender continues to battle looming bankruptcy concerns amid its current liquidity crisis.
7) Senate Finance Committee set to vote on the healthcare bill. Since the Democrats have a 13 to 10 majority, it's expected that the bill-backed by Chairman Baucus-will pass. It does not include a public option, but the Sentate Health Committee (chaired by Chris dodd) does, so there will need to be some kind of reconciliation. All three House bills under consideration also have a public option.
8) Another IPO: RailAmerica, which operates short-haul rail lines--priced 22 million shares at $15, below the talk of $16 to $18. They were taken private nearly 3 years ago by Fortress Investment. Half the money will go to Fortress, the other half will go to pay down debt and possible acquisitions for RailAmerica.
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The Dow 30 in Real TimeThe CNBC Stock Blog
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Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com
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453f5f2b612c9ce3cd9227d22abc907f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/ivanka-trump-on-nepotismher-trump-card.html | Ivanka Trump on Nepotism—Her Trump Card | Ivanka Trump on Nepotism—Her Trump Card
Ivanka TrumpIvanka Trump
Ahhhh, the Apprentice has indeed learned from her master and is becoming quite the self-promoter.
Ivanka Trump, the 27 year-old daughter of real estate mogul Donald Trump has taken full advantage of all her assets; being born into the lucky gene pool, access to money, power and players and now she’s out with a new book.
In, "The Trump Card: Playing to Win in Work and Life," the younger (and better looking) Trump writes about what she has learned from her privileged upbringing and offers advise to young women on how to focus at work, negotiate with conviction and passion and how to thrive in uncertainty.
Throughout the 241-page book, Trump serves up what she calls, ‘Bulletins from my BlackBerry." These bulletins are from a group of successful and well-known people she admires including hip-hop mogul Russell Simmons, Arianna Huffington the cofounder and editor of the Huffington Post; Chairman and CEO of Loews Hotels, Jonathan Tisch; Cathie Black, president of Hearst magazines; and Chris DeWolfe, cofounder of MySpace.
Trump CardTrump Card
Ivanka freely admits nepotism has played a huge role in her life but, "We've all been dealt a winning hand," Ivanka writes, "and it is up to each of us to play it right and smart."
And so far this titan in training is indeed playing it right - and smart.
Ivanka earned her corporate boots overseeing the construction of the new $450 million Trump Soho - a 46-story hotel condominium in downtown New York. The complex is set to open Feb. 1, 2010. She also recently launched her own high-end jewelry line, The Ivanka Trump Collectionwith a boutique on New York's Madison Avenue.
And in a tip to the ol' family tradition of "keeping it in the family," the head of that jewelry line designed Ivanka's 6-karat diamond engagement ring given to her by Jared Kushner, the 28-year-old owner of the New York Observer and fellow real estate mogul.
In "The Trump Card," she writes "The message I take in from the people who inspire me is that success isn’t something that happens to you; you happen to it." Sounds just like her father!
You can read an excerpt from the book here.
Questions, comments? bullishonbooks@cnbc.com
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9b858319f5f92608e20f8c6c1221b006 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/lightning-round-ups-celgene-the-st-joe-co-and-more.html | Select Medical : Sell SEM, Cramer said. The stock “did nothing” in its IPO.
People’s United Financial : Cramer is bullish on PBCT.
15 Rules for Playing Defense
United Parcel Service : UPS is a buy, Cramer said.
VIDEO0:0000:00Lightning Round
Brookdale Senior Living : Take profits on BKD, Cramer said. The stock has moved back to its 52-week high. He also doesn’t like that Fortress Investment Group owns 44% of the company.
Celgene : Cramer endorsed buying Celgene.
The St. Joe Co. : Hold on to JOE. “I think at this point it’s too late to sell,” Cramer said of the largest independent landowner in Florida. He thinks that state’s real-estate market is coming back.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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f82b296de9eff014ea1db874f9bb893d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/13/madoff-in-prison-yard-tussle-over-stock-market.html | Madoff in Prison Yard Tussle over Stock Market | Madoff in Prison Yard Tussle over Stock Market
Bernard Madoff got into a fight in the prison yard with another inmate over the stock market – and won, the New York Post reported, quoting eyewitnesses.
The 71 year-old Ponzi schemer, who is serving 150 years at the Butner, NC federal prison, got into a heated argument about the state of the market with another inmate in his 60s, inmates told the New York Post.
The two were in a shouting match that got so heated the inmate pushed Madoff, who shoved back with both hands and made his attacker stagger. Madoff was hovering over his attacker red-faced and glaring, eyewitnesses told the paper.
Federal Bureau of Prison Butner, NC
"I didn't think Bernie had it in him. He got the best of him; he was really aggressive, and the other guy was in shock that he fought back," an inmate told the New York Post.
The fight happened near a ball field in front of about 20 inmates during a rare time when prison guards weren't watching. An inmate said the two were lucky they weren't seen by guards as they would have been sent to solitary confinement.
The two were seen the next day talking, the paper said.
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