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d4c110f534d7110f79b7e901935c67ea | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/pull-the-plug-on-problem-banks-strategist.html | ‘Pull the Plug’ on Problem Banks: Strategist | ‘Pull the Plug’ on Problem Banks: Strategist
The government should “pull the plug” on problem banks rather than bail them out and imposing tougher regulation on them, Roger Nightingale, strategist at Pointon York, told CNBC Wednesday.
VIDEO2:3902:39'Pull the Plugâ?? on Banks
The US government is considering a bill that would impose tighter rules for banks; US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the financial system was still fragile after experiencing the worst crisis since the 1930s, and the government must add new regulation as well as improving on current ones.
In Europe, various authorities have proposed different strategies, from imposing tough rules on executive compensation to separating the investment and commercial businesses of banks.
“Regulation tends to make problems worse rather than better,” Nightingale said adding that “the banks were helped to far too great a degree a year ago,” and had they not been helped, they would not have been as strong and bonuses wouldn’t have been an issue.
The UK government owns around 70 percent in the Royal Bank of Scotland and more than 40 percent in Lloyds , which has bought lender HBOS, saving it from collapse.
“And now the government comes in and says ‘we’re going to drop the bonuses with regulation,’ how stupid,” he said.
Instead, troubled banks need to be allowed to fail, and governments need to “go and pull the plug. Pull the plug on RBS, pull the plug on HBOS,” he added.
Regulation shouldn’t be the main focus in fixing the global economy, Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon also told CNBC.
“If you’re going to deal with the core causes, then we got to deal with the core imbalance issues in the global economy,” he said adding that the “600-pound gorilla in the room” remains China’s currency policies, not banking regulation.
-For the full interview, see video above
For Investors:
We Are in the Mother of All Carry Trades: RoubiniMarket Tips: A Healthy Pullback Will Set Up New Rally
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c1df2f886fa20f2411de486f84ff9c23 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/roginsky-the-lieberman-optout.html | Roginsky: The Lieberman Opt-Out | Roginsky: The Lieberman Opt-Out
Joe Lieberman is one angry man. Angry that six years after he was the Democratic Party’s nominee in 2000, Connecticut Democrats turned on him and endorsed Ned Lamont as their senate nominee. Angry that national Democrats, alongside whom he had served for years, endorsed Lamont once he became the Democratic nominee over Lieberman, their colleague. Angry enough that he retaliated against the Democratic Party by endorsing John McCain for president in 2008 and angry enough that he toyed with switching parties if he did not get to keep his committee chairmanship in 2009.
Joe Lieberman (CT -D)Getty Images
Now in an a new fit of pique, Lieberman has threatened to join a filibuster of a health care plan that includes a public option, even if there is a state opt-out provision. His ostensible reasons for joining Republicans in killing health care reform is his concern that Congress is “trying to do too much at once” and that a public option would spell trouble for the growing national debt.
Since the first President Roosevelt ran on a national health insurance plan nearly a century ago, Lieberman’s contention that Congress is moving too quickly is specious at best. When Lieberman was not yet in school, President Truman argued that heath care reform was a national economic imperative. Al Gore, Lieberman’s old running mate, was part of an administration that tried to overhaul health care reform fifteen years ago.
While Lieberman enjoys one of the most expansive health care plans available, courtesy of the taxpayers, the same cannot be said for nearly 10% of his constituents in Connecticut who have no access to health insurance. If something is not done to address the spiraling costs and lack of access to health care, that number will continue to grow. And yet, Lieberman believes Congress is moving too fast while the number of uninsured in his state and across the nation continues to skyrocket.
Lieberman’s second argument, that a public option will burden the national debt, is even more ridiculous. A recent Congressional Budget Office analysis showed that the House bill with a more robust public option than the one opposed by Lieberman would actually lower the deficit within the next decade.
Slideshow:The World's Biggest Debtor Nations
In fact, projections earlier this year showed that rising health care costs will consume more than a third of our GDP in 20 years if Lieberman has his way and health care reform is defeated. Without a public option, insurance oligopolies will continue to exist without any competition or incentive to hold down costs for consumers. Insurance premiums for families have increased by over 130% since Lieberman ran for national office in large part precisely because insurers have no competitive incentive to hold down costs.
A cynic, of course, might assume that Lieberman knows full well the historic and economic imperatives of meaningful health care reform. Connecticut just happens to be home to over 70 insurance companies and despite his denials, it could be that Lieberman is carrying their water. Protecting hometown industry is commendable. Protecting lives and the nation’s fiscal health is even better.
On this issue, Lieberman is out of step with the very people he was elected to represent. A recent poll showed that almost two-third of all Americans support a public option to compete with private insurance. Lieberman is on the wrong side of history, on the wrong side of fiscal policy policy and on the wrong side of the vast majority of Americans. Some of them may even be Connecticut voters.
Great People - Great Ideas on CNBC.com's Guest Blog
_________________________Julie Roginsky is a CNBC contributor who has extensive experience in government, politics and public relations on both the federal and state levels including serving as the Washington communications director for former Senator Jon Corzine.
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e62f0d6d2f5ef317f95480d3a9554fe6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/seeing-michael-jackson-through-critical-eyes.html | Seeing Michael Jackson Through Critical Eyes | Seeing Michael Jackson Through Critical Eyes
I was invited to attend the premiere of "This Is It" Tuesday night at the Nokia Theater, where I was joined by a few thousand of my closest friends like Will Smith, Paula Abdul, four of Michael Jackson's brothers, and J-Lo (heard she was there, didn't see her). Needless to say, nearly everyone there was a die-hard Jackson fan.
I used to be.
I went to see the movie out of curiosity more than anything else.
As a kid growing up in Los Angeles, I always liked The Jackson 5 better than The Osmond Brothers.
I bought "Off the Wall", "Thriller", and "Bad". Then I stopped.
Michael Jackson was changing.
As a reporter, I first started covering Jackson in 1993 as allegations surfaced about child molestation. Then there was his marriage to Lisa Marie Presley, the whole thing with Debbie Rowe, his increasingly strange appearance, a criminal trial, and, finally, a tragic end.
MJ's "This Is It" to Score Big in Box Office Takings
So, unlike most people at the Nokia last night, I went to the movie with more critical eyes. There were some empty seats in the theater, which surprised me. The celebrities, for the most part, were not A-listers. But when the lights went down and director Kenny Ortega addressed the crowd, and the movie began, I have to admit, it was pretty electrifying. Ortega and his team did a lot with what little material they had. It looks as though they filmed perhaps five or six rehearsals with Jackson, yet I only noticed a few times where they repeated shots. Filmmakers filled out the 90 minutes with a lot of additional compelling material, like the dancer auditions. In fact, the movie is as much about the dancers, singers, musicians and crew for the would-be concert tour than it is about Michael Jackson. To hear their stories, to see their talent, gives the film a wonderful dimension. You also see all the special production touches Jackson and Ortega were planning for the concert—like a 3D graveyard scene to play on huge screens during "Thriller" which looks suspiciously like Disney's "The Haunted Mansion" (Ortega came from Disney ). There was another number where a young girl holds the Earth in her hands. I note that she's a young girl. There are no young boys in this movie, anywhere.
But mostly, there is Michael Jackson, always working, always wanting another take, always singing and dancing. At 50, he outdances artists less than half his age, and they stand in awe. He demands things his way, but does so kindly. There is a lot of humor in the movie as he and Ortega try to gently make their ideas known to each other. "I say this with love, L-O-V-E, love," Jackson says after making sure the crew knows exactly what he wants. When Jackson tests out a new cherry picker which will be used in "Beat It", he wants to start the music immediately and give the song a go. Ortega pleads with him to wait and just test the cherry picker "for safety's sake". It's a funny scene as Jackson rides the lift silently through the theater, and finally says "hello" to some crewmember on the ground. Jackson's speaking voice seems strained at times, which I attribute to his unique facial structure. But his singing voice is still there. And the dancing. The dancing. I saw no signs of someone who was on painkillers. How could you do that on drugs?
Of course, we don't know what reality was. This is nominally a "documentary", but editing can create all kinds of impressions. Did Jackson have that energy level at all times? Was he always so kind and engaged? I don't know, but even if the movie is only half accurate, Michael Jackson was going to put on one heck of a concert. I suspect fans will go back for repeat viewings, and I would not be surprised if Sony extends the film's two-week run.
Slideshow: Highest Grossing Movies of All Time
Ok, time to lighten things up. In light of my thoughts on the power of editing, here are two funny examples of how a story can be retold in a completely new way, simply by re-editing the same material.
First, here's "Mary Poppins" as an evil monster.
Then there's "The Shining" as a romantic comedy.
Questions? Comments? Funny Stories? Email
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1ede03e1beb6c0ae392f96d3d0ed8069 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/sell-block-textrons-redemption-song.html | It’s not often that a CEO on Cramer’s Wall of Shame takes the actions necessary to fully redeem himself. Instead the chief exec usually takes a permanent vacation, retiring from the firm they worked so hard to destroy and then fading into obscurity – if they’re lucky. Not so with Textron’s Lewis Campbell.
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Cramer added Campbell to the Wall back on June 10, citing the boss’ stewardship, or lack thereof, since taking the helm in July 1998. The company, which operates in everything from financing to private jets and helicopters to aerospace and defense, had just held big secondary and convertible bond offerings, as well as dramatically reduced its earnings guidance. Not to mention, Campbell’s expensive air travel, most than any other CEO in the US, branded him a typical corner-office fat cat.
VIDEO0:0000:00Cramer's Sell Block
But since his induction, Campbell has turned Textron around, and the stock is up 61% to $18.43. The S&P 500 has climbed just 11% over the same time period. And the company today reported a 5-cent earnings beat, in addition to offering a bullish outlook for the fourth quarter.
“For a company that looked like it was struggling to survive not that long ago,” Cramer said, “Textron does sound like it’s ready to thrive.”
So how did Campbell pull off this miracle, thereby releasing his company from the Sell Block and escaping from Mad Money’s Wall of Shame? Watch the video for Cramer’s full report.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
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Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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734338489b147c406362e96e52746cce | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/senate-vote-on-homebuyer-tax-credit-unlikely-today.html | Senate Vote On Home-Buyer Tax Credit Unlikely Today | Senate Vote On Home-Buyer Tax Credit Unlikely Today
There's almost no chance the Senate will vote Wednesday on extending the popular homebuyer's tax credit, which is set to expire at the end of next month, a key Capitol Hill source told CNBC.com.
There was hope last night that a vote on one of several versions might be voted on Wednesday but a battle over legislation extending unemployment benefits is taking priority and right now there's "no agreement" on that issue, according to the source.
The original intent was to attach the tax credit proposal as an amendment to the jobless benefits bill.
Some senators, especially Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.), have been pushing for both an extension and expansion of the $8,000 credit for first-time buyers for months. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who chairs the Senate Housing, Banking and Urban Affairs Committee, is a cosponsor of the bill, which would apply the credit to non-first-time buyers and second homes.
It would also extend the program to June 30, 2010 and current income limits would be raised to $150,000 for individuals and $300,000 for couples.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), however, have proposed an alternative to the Isakson bill, which applies only to first-time buyers and reduces the amount of the credit over a year's time. Their plan would extend the full $8,000 credit for four months; after that it would be reduced by $2,000 every three months.
Though that proposal is deemed more palatable to Republicans, a compromise is in the works.
Another source--a Senate aide—said the two Democraric groups are close to a compromise on the tax credit issue, but stressed passage of the unemployment bill came first.
Earlier today, CNBC's Realty Check blog reported terms of a compromise on Capitol Hill.
The House has yet to even get that far, though legislation has already been introduced. The House would probably vote on the Senate plan.
The original tax credit credit was funded under the Obama administration's massive stimulus plan, which was approved in February. Critics immediately attacked it because it only applied to buyers of a primary residence. A Nixon-era program applied to all buyers and all homes.
Nevertheless, the program has been a major force in sparking something of a revival in the depressed housing market. A realtors group has forecast the credit would lead to about a 350,000 sales that would not have ordinarily taken place. About 2 million people were expected to take advantage of the program.
Along those lines, there is growing concern that once the existing credit expires, sales will slow dramatically. Mortgage activity has declined in the past three weeks. It generally takes two months to close on a house.
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6098be46ff2c7ca1cb20c506e6de7fd9 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/stock-jocks-punish-under-armours-mathletes.html | Under Armour on Tuesday tried a bit of a Jedi mind trick on the market, and now the stock is paying for it. UA has lost a total of 25% over the past two days.
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
Get this: The company boosted its full-year guidance to 5 cents a share. The problem? It’s third-quarter beat was came in at 8 cents. Wouldn’t that mean Under Armour should come up 3 cents short in Q4?
VIDEO0:0000:00Outrage of the Day
And that’s not the only math kung fu the company tried to pull on investors. Under Armour also “raised” its full-year revenue outlook to between $830 million and $835 million from $810 million. But the first three quarters totaled $635 million, leaving just $200 million for the fourth quarter, which is “horrible” for the holidays, Cramer said.
At first, Wall Street and the media were fooled. Early in the morning The Associated Press ran a story with the headline, “Under Armour Raises Outlook on Strong Sales.” A few hours later, though, the attitude had changed: “Under Armour Falls as Investors Worry About 4Q.” The gig, as they say, was up.
Other companies take note: Trying to hoodwink investors will backfire on you.
Investors realized they were taken, Cramer said, “and they’re making [Under Armour] pay an extra price for its tricks.”
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3c88b3f8bcffac85e5f948fc1f2a0ff0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/stocks-pickers-vs-index-funds-the-debate-rages-on.html | Stocks Pickers Vs Index Funds: The Debate Rages On | Stocks Pickers Vs Index Funds: The Debate Rages On
In the investing world, the rivalry is akin to the Capulets and the Montagues. In one corner, active stockpickers and their belief in talented fund managers who can outperform the market; in the other, passive investors who prefer less-risky portfolios of low-cost broad market indices.
It’s a question that will be debated forever on trading-room floors and investor chat rooms, but what investors want to know: Who has the best approach for right now, after a quick post-collapse runup that has the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking the magical 10,000 level?The answer might be different than you expect. Conventional wisdom holds that active management performs best in a declining market, when stockpickers can sidestep the dogs like a Lehman Brothers or an AIG . But here’s a secret: It’s a total myth.
“Everyone believes that active investors do well in bad markets,” says Srikant Dash, global head of research and design for S&P Index Services. “But when we looked at the bad markets of 2002 and 2008, we showed conclusively that it’s not true.”
What Dash found in his SPIVA scorecard that compares active and passive investing: Then—and over any five-year time horizon you’d care to mention—about two-thirds of fund managers underperform the stock market. In other words, over the long term, plain-vanilla index funds clobber many of the best minds in the business.
Complete Stock Market Coverage
For right now, though, there’s some evidence that active investors could be coming into their moment. After all, the Dow was up an eye-popping 15 percent last quarter, as investors regained their confidence and money rushed back in from the sidelines. That’s the Dow’s best performance since 1998, rebounding smartly from a low of around 6,500.
If one assumes that such a rapid ascent won’t be replicated in the near-term, and that we can expect a relatively flat, range-bound market in coming months, then broad indices won’t be going anywhere. Active managers, on the other hand, could thrive with their more judicious stockpicking.
Just ask George Athanassakos. The chair of the Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing in London, Ontario, Athanassakos ran a study comparing a stockpicking approach to the performance of market indexes. He discovered that in straight bull markets, when a rising tide lifted all boats, his value-oriented stock selections were almost exactly aligned with the broader market.
But in flat or zig-zag markets, his active style destroyed the indices, beating them by almost 50 percent. If that’s the kind of market we’re entering, then active investors should take heart.“When the market goes up, then everyone is doing well,” says Athanassakos, a finance professor and author of the book "Equity Valuation." “It’s hard to buy low and sell high when there’s a straight line up. So active management becomes especially important when the market moves within a band.”
Moreover, it’s usually in the aftermath of a big market move, like the one we’ve just experienced, that you discover a few glaring market inefficiencies. “When prices have all moved in one direction, there’s more opportunity for mispricing to emerge,” says Josh Peters, an equities analyst with Chicago-based research firm Morningstar.
And a continued bull run looks unlikely, Peters suggests, since underlying fundamentals like corporate revenues and abysmal employment figures mean the economy’s not out of the woods yet.If that’s the case—that the general market takes a breather, and some relative values begin to stick out—then where should stockpickers place their bets? Active investors would do well to focus on yields, Peters advises. After all, if stock prices remain range-bound, then it’s dividend payouts that will largely be determining your returns. High-yielding, blue-chip firms tend to be resilient, without a huge downside, because investors are attracted to the stability and income they provide.
Sector Watch Performance
They’ve also been lagging the broader market recently, as the hottest stars have been previously left-for-dead firms like MGM. That discrepancy makes for some juicy values. Some of Peters’ picks: Johnson & Johnson , Abbott Labs, and Altria , all overlooked giants that continue to throw off cash.
“They’re not trading at unreasonable valuations, those stocks don’t need a quick V-shaped recovery,' he says. "And you don’t need a whole lot to go right for those investments to work.”
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e66405170c4aed9c251da04d2afc56db | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/target-upgraded-from-sell-to-buy.html | Perhaps the boldest call of the day, widely followed Citigroup analyst Deborah Weinswig raised her rating on Target clear across the specturm to 'buy' from 'sell' with no stops in-between. That’s a big jump – so big, that we asked Weinswing to join us on Fast Money to defend herself. (Well, maybe not defend so much as give us some background.)
VIDEO0:0000:00Analyze This
And her thesis is solid.She told us that although rival discounters, particularly Wal-Mart have benefited from the downturn as consumers switch to cheaper items and focus on necessities Target has lagged. That weakness was largely because a sizable chunk of Target's profits came from non-essentials such as bed spreads and funky clocks – things that the cash strapped consumer can do without.
However, Target has recently changed its strategy – becoming more Walmart like, if you will. With a greater focus on food through its "P-Fresh" format, Weinswig expects profits to get a boost. She’s also likes their lower apparel inventory levels and improved fashion offerings.
"We believe TGT has a long runway of productivity improvements ahead,” she concluded. As a result she rates the stock a buy and increased her target price to $61 from $44 .Karen Finerman is bullish too. I’m already long Target, she says.
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Trader disclosure: On October 28th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (INTC), (MSFT), (FXI); Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (EXPE) Calls
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b2c375bf70a485bcb5fa1f1792fd1379 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/time-to-adjust-your-tech-portfolio.html | Time to Adjust Your Tech Portfolio | Time to Adjust Your Tech Portfolio
There’s a transition occurring in the tech sector.
Intel Core 2 Extreme Quad-core processorAP
The traditional sector bellwethers—computer hardware, desktop software, consumer electronics—are no longer the areas of growth. It’s all about the enterprise.
“It’s looking for what hasn’t necessarily gotten better yet,” says Rob Cihra, senior vice president at Caris & Co. “We already know that the consumer market has been good within tech. Enterprise spending is just now starting to get better.”
Pent-up Demand
Despite the tech sector’s strong performance in 2009, IT spending has been weak. Gartner recently reported that 2009 will be the worst year on record for IT spending, with enterprise spending on a pace to drop 6.9 percent from 2008.With the economy improving, however, businesses will be more inclined to ramp up purchases and upgrades, which they put off during the recession.
That’s particularly true among networking and communications companies, says Craig Berger, semiconductor analyst at FBR Capital Markets. He notes that while companies were slashing IT budgets, businesses are relying more and more on Internet-based and wireless data networks. Eventually, those companies will have to beef up their network infrastructures.
“There’s some pent-up demand forming,” Berger says. “So while the PC trade seems to be getting long in the tooth, the recovery in IT spending bodes well for enterprise chip firms and comm/networking firms. China’s already planning a very large spending ramp associated with its cellular infrastructure build out, so some of those comm/networking names play into those trends.”
Berger lists Silicon Labs, Broadcom and LSI among the companies that stand to benefit from an increase in enterprise spending.
“One stock that’s underperforming right now is Qualcomm,” Berger says. “Its got very attractive valuations, it’s a great franchise, it collects royalties on 3G devices, it’s one that could outperform within chips next year just based on the amount of underperforming we’ve seen in 2009.”
Companies that provide data center products, particularly storage, also stand to gain from an upswing in IT spending.
“Even throughout the downturn, corporations still invested in projects that were very high ROI projects that alleviated pain points within the corporate infrastructure,” says Toan Tran, technology analyst at Morningstar. “Storage companies like EMC and NetApp have been doing well and will continue because the volume of data you see stored every day increases.”
Software, Not Hardware
Adjusting your tech portfolio to accommodate the changes in the tech landscape means limiting your downside exposure.Kim Caughey, senior analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group, favors enterprise software and services because of the recurring revenue stream they provide.
“Software is now sold to corporations, more or less, on a subscription basis, which makes for very smooth revenues,” she says. “Companies like CA, BMC and of course IBM are three companies that have pretty smooth revenue streams. I would also look at business services providers like Accenture that deal only with the enterprise. That should limit the downside for investors.”
Analysts caution investors away from the PC sector, despite the release of Windows 7. But enterprises, which typically operate on a three-year refresh cycle for PCs, have been putting off upgrades. That was due both to the recession and the unpopularity of Windows Vista.
Hewlett PackardAP
With so many large companies still running older Windows XP systems, Berger notes that there could be an uptick in PC sales later in 2010. But in the meantime, PC-related firms such as Dell, Hewlett-Packard and Intel may find themselves with excess inventory.
“There are concerns that the [hardware vendors] are ordering more products than they need as a result of the Windows 7 launch coming up,” Berger says. “Nobody wants to miss the Microsoft marketing muscle for the launch. But I don’t think consumers go out and buy new PCs because of a new operating system refresh. It may spur more corporate replacements for next year. You may see some handoff from consumer-driven PC trends toward corporate-driven trends as Windows 7 comes out.”
The More Things Change…
Although the names leading the charge may change, the fundamentals of tech investing remain the same.Caughey recommends sticking with market-leading companies that serve a broad range of industries in several geographic regions. And make sure you do your homework regarding a company’s financial performance.
“Even in a recession, you would want to see this year’s revenues a little bit higher or at least flat with last year’s revenues,” Caughey says. “If you see it moving downward because of what has happened this last year, that’s probably a company that’s not in favor.”
The tech sector has been a bright spot for much of the year, and analysts believe the sector still has momentum going into 2010. For investors, it’s a matter of keeping up with the new growth areas.
“Some people are worried that tech has already had such a huge move that where is the opportunity from here,” Cihra says. “I think it’s unlikely that leadership will change from now until the end of the year. If you look at IT spending, tech company earnings, improving demand, improving revenue and earnings, and just from a near-term momentum standpoint, I don’t think that’s going to change.”
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5c672f8b9f17d376dce496251e861a29 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/versace-to-cut-350-jobs-to-restore-profitability.html | Versace to Cut 350 Jobs to Restore Profitability | Versace to Cut 350 Jobs to Restore Profitability
The Versace fashion house on Wednesday announced it will cut 350 jobs worldwide as part of a reorganization aimed at returning the group to profitability in 2011.
DownsizingiStockphoto
Versace said it will streamline production, review store network and reduce capital investments and overhead. The measures will be implemented by the middle of next year.
CEO Gian Giacomo Ferraris said in a statement that the company will lose money in 2009 and the measures were necessary to help stanch future losses.
"No organization can allow a situation like this to continue, especially given the flat outlook for 2010," Ferraris said in a statement.
Versace approved a new three-year plan earlier this year before the departure in June of the previous chief executive, Giancarlo Di Risio, who had joined the privately held, family-run company in 2004 after a euro120 million debt restructuring package was agreed with banks.
Versace said earlier this year that first-quarter revenues were down 13 percent.
The economic slowdown has taken a bite out of the luxury market, which is forecast to contract 8 percent from 2008 to euro153 billion ($228.25 billion) in 2009, according to a study by Bain & Co.
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70a9a646665880230104e5e79a47c003 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/walmart-starts-selling-caskets-urns-online.html | Wal-Mart Starts Selling Caskets, Urns Online | Wal-Mart Starts Selling Caskets, Urns Online
The world's largest retailer wants to keep its customers even after they die.
Wal-Mart has started selling caskets on its Web site at prices that undercut many funeral homes, long the major seller of caskets.
Gravestones
The move follows a similar one by discount rival Costco , which also sells caskets on its site.
Wal-Mart quietly put up about 15 caskets and dozens of urns on its Web site last week.
Prices range from $999 for models like "Dad Remembered" and "Mom Remembered" steel caskets to the mid-level $1,699 "Executive Privilege." All are less than $2,000, except for the Sienna Bronze Casket, which sells for $3,199.
Caskets ship within 48 hours. Federal law requires funeral homes to accept third-party caskets. Returns are not accepted, the company says on its site, unless the product has been damaged during shipping.
The caskets come from Star Legacy Funeral Network, a company based in McHenry, Ill., that sells the same caskets for about the same price — some less — on its site, along with many others.
Star Legacy CEO Rick Obadiah said the response in the first week has been better than the company or Wal-Mart expected, though he declined to give specifics. A spokesman for Walmart.com also declined to release sales figures and downplayed the venture.
"Several online retailers offer this category on their sites," spokesman Ravi Jariwala wrote in an e-mail. "We are simply conducting a limited beta test to understand customer response."
But Obadiah said it is not simply a test. He said more than 200 Star Legacy products, including pet urns and memorial jewelry, and eventually about two dozen caskets, will be sold at walmart.com. The company also supplies similar types of products to online retailer Overstock.com and urns to Costco's Web site.
Other parts of the Wal-Mart empire also sell funeral wares. The company's samsclub.com site sells casket floral arrangements for about $300.
Part of the business model is to get people to plan ahead: Walmart.com is allowing people to pay for the caskets over a period of 12 months for no interest.
The move gives more power to consumers and helps them avoid high mark-ups on caskets, which can often be several hundred percent, said R. Brian Burkhardt, a funeral director who blogs as "Your Funeral Guy."
"You can get a quality casket for $1,000 rather than pay $2,000, $3,000 or $5,000 in a funeral home. That's where it helps the consumer," he said.
The industry is not too concerned about Wal-Mart entering the market, said Pat Lynch, president-elect of the National Funeral Home Directors Association. Consumers have been able to buy caskets online and from other sources for years, with minimal effect on the business, he said.
Wal-Mart's prices for caskets don't differ greatly from those offered at funeral homes, most of which range from $500 to $5,000, Lynch said. He declined to give an average price, saying a casket selection is a personal one.
He said Wal-Mart can't offer one thing funeral directors do have: the ability to comfort someone during a trying time.
"There's no question in my mind as a funeral director for nearly 40 years that the most critical element is the human contact," he said.
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e9ecb351a59826b696e3331e0571f61c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/web-extra-emerging-markets-meltdown.html | Emerging markets stocks had their worst 3-day drop in 4 months. Find out from Tim Seymour if you should start picking selectively or if there's more downside to go! This content is only available online - you won't find these trades on TV.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Web Extra
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your message to .
Trader disclosure: On October 28th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (INTC), (MSFT), (FXI); Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (EXPE) Calls
Najarian Owns (GE) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & (LAZ) Puts; Najarian Owns (MYL); Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (YHOO) & (YHOO) Puts; Terranova Owns (IBM), (QCOM), (GS); Finerman Owns (PDE), (TGT), (WMT), (BAC); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (PDE), (PBR), (RIG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (UNG);For Deborah WeinswigCiti Owns (TGT) Citi Has Received Compensation for Investment Banking from (TGT) (TGT) Has Been A Client Of Citi in the Past 12 Months Citi Has Acted As Manager Of An Offering of Securities of (WMT) Citi Has Received Compensation for Investment Banking from (WMT) (WMT) Has Been A Client Of Citi in the Past 12 Months Citi Is Market Maker in Shares of (WMT) ForRich RepettoSandler O'Neill Expects To Receive Compensation from (CME) Sandler O'Neill Expects To Receive Compenation from (NYX) For Brian KellyKelly Owns (QCOM) Kelly Owns (ORCL)
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98a1ba33f0b262e48d03b979e3e88165 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/worlds-fastest-growing-airline.html | World's Fastest Growing Airline | World's Fastest Growing Airline
The world's fastest growing commercial airline is touching down for the second time in the U.S.
Etihad, the national airline of the United Arab Emirates, recently launched service to Chicago. The city marks the second U.S. service destination for the airline.
Northwest Pilot Who Overshot Airport Denies Crew Was Napping
Outside of the airline's expansion in the U.S., the company announced that it seeing positive trends despite a global slowdown. Etihad CEO James Hogan told Maria Bartiromo "in the last quarter this year, cargo which is the first to decline at the start of any recession is now coming back." Hogan said "we are also starting to see improvements in passenger yields." Hogan told Bartiromo that Etihad expects to passenger numbers to rise to 7 million this year, that's an increase of 15%.
VIDEO0:0000:00World's Fastest Growing Airline
And the good news doesn't stop there.
The International Air Transport Association expects the Middle East to be the only region with demand set to grow this year.
When asked about the regional demand, Hogan told Bartiromo the airline is "seeing more and more corporate travelers move over to the Gulf and the Middle East." Hogan said "distribution of traffic is much more broader than in the U.S. and Europe" with Asia continuing to hold up.
Check out Maria Bartiromo's interview with James Hogan, CEO of Etihad.
Donna Burton contributed to this article.
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The Dow 30 in Real TimeThe CNBC Stock Blog
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Questions? Comments? Write toinvestoragenda@cnbc.com
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2940a927ba2ed278e5dcc1e6de08a8bb | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/28/your-first-move-for-thursday-october-29th.html | Here’s our Fast Money Final Trade. Our gang gives you tomorrow’s best trades, right now.
Tim Seymour says PetroChina is a sell . “They had bad earnings-- it’s wounded. Kick the knees!”
JoeTerranova suggests longQualcomm. “You’ve got to love how resilient it was in a down tape.”
Karen Finerman prefers long Nasdaq. “Trading at 10 times earnings I think it’s very attractive here.”
Pete Najarian thinks Motorola is a buy. “Very Halloween-like, rising from the dead!” (Click here for more on Motorola's new Droid smartphone.)
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TAKE YOUR POSITION: EXCHANGES
With earnings from CME and NYSE on deck how should you trade the exchanges?
Although Sandler O’Neill analyst Rich Repetto has a buy rating on both the NYSE and CME, he tells Fast Money if he had to chose only one exchange stock ahead of earnings, "I’d be a buyer of Nasdaq .” "Not only has their market share improved but they have a slight tailwind from the proposed SEC regulation."
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Final Trades
Click here to see other Final Trade posts.
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! Prefer to keep it between us? You can still send questions and comments to .
Trader disclosure: On October 28th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (INTC), (MSFT), (FXI); Najarian Owns (BX) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (EXPE) Calls
Najarian Owns (GE) Calls; Najarian Owns (LAZ) & (LAZ) Puts; Najarian Owns (MYL); Najarian Owns (RIMM) Call Spread; Najarian Owns (YHOO) & (YHOO) Puts; Terranova Owns (IBM), (QCOM), (GS); Finerman Owns (PDE), (TGT), (WMT), (BAC); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Owns (PDE), (PBR), (RIG); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (UNG);For Deborah WeinswigCiti Owns (TGT) Citi Has Received Compensation for Investment Banking from (TGT) (TGT) Has Been A Client Of Citi in the Past 12 Months Citi Has Acted As Manager Of An Offering of Securities of (WMT) Citi Has Received Compensation for Investment Banking from (WMT) (WMT) Has Been A Client Of Citi in the Past 12 Months Citi Is Market Maker in Shares of (WMT) ForRich RepettoSandler O'Neill Expects To Receive Compensation from (CME) Sandler O'Neill Expects To Receive Compenation from (NYX) For Brian KellyKelly Owns (QCOM) Kelly Owns (ORCL)
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15372cc81ebf65cfd0b38d0eb8f5b6a2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/10-predictions-from-the-man-with-the-crystal-ball.html | 10 Predictions From The Man With The Crystal Ball | 10 Predictions From The Man With The Crystal Ball
Even Byron Wien doesn’t expect to be as right in the future as he has been this year.
Traders work in the ten-year U.S. Treasury Note options pit at the Chicago Board of Trade in Chicago, Illinois.Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Wien is the Senior Managing Director at the Blackstone Group, and if you’re not familiar with his Top 10 list, every year at the beginning of January the famed market strategist releases his surprises for the coming year. Now, as we wrap up October, it is amazing to go back and look at his list for 2009 and how accurate he was.
Here’s what he predicted back in January:
1. The S&P 500 will rise to 1200. It hasn’t happened yet, but after dipping below 700 in early March, the S&P has rallied to close to 1100, and Byron told me on the Wall Street Journal Reportthat he still thinks it will hit 1200 before year end.
2. Gold will rise to $1,200 per ounce. Again, we’re not there yet, but gold is trading comfortably above $1000 an ounce – and could rally even more – after starting the year well below that level.
3. Oil returns to $80 PER barrel. Few thought that would happen. It did.
4. The dollar will experience a “serious downward slide.” Correct, again.
5. The 10-year Treasury will yield 4%. It briefly touched 4% in June.
6. China’s growth will exceed 7%. The latest numbers out of China put growth at about 9%.
7. New York will threaten bankruptcy, with other states to follow. Fortunately, this hasn’t happened, but there are concerns over the financial condition of New York, California and several other states.
8. Housing starts will bottom in the fall. Wein believes that has happened.
9. The U.S. savings rate will not exceed 3%, as most economists expected. He was “sort of” right on this one. The savings rate jumped as high as 6% earlier in the year, but it is now back down to 3% as consumers show signs of spending again.
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6dda7acf46ec63e3614b731f51b74b34 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/11-stocks-to-end-year-strongly-chief-investor.html | 11 Stocks to End Year 'Strongly': Chief Investor | 11 Stocks to End Year 'Strongly': Chief Investor
Markets rose on Thursday after data showed the economy grew more than expected last quarter and jobless claims fell. How should investors be positioning their portfolios now?
VIDEO0:0000:00Bulls vs. Bears
Dan Genter, president, CEO and CIO of RNC Genter Capital Management, and Dean Barber, founder and president of Barber Financial Group, shared their market insights. (Scroll down for Genter's stock picks.)
“It will be very easy for us to take a pause,” Genter told CNBC.
“[But] I think we’ll drive strongly until the end of the year, because we’re now seeing confirmation that we knew the bottomline was going to come in. Because of cost cuts, people were concerned about diminishing returns.”
“We’re seeing that, as lean as these companies are, they’re going to be able to drive the topline, improve margins [via] a very small modicum of increase in gross sales, which generally we’ll get from exports,” he added. “So people will see that and the valuations are good.” (Counterpoint: Economist David Rosenberg believes the market is generally over-valued. Click for more).
Genter Likes:
IBM
Oracle
Microsoft
Cisco
Intel
CVS Caremark
P&G
Kellogg
Kimberly-Clark
Johnson & Johnson
Teva Pharmaceuticals
Barber's Outlook:
In the meantime, Barber recommended that investors—especially baby boomers—focus on more conservative sectors.
“Until we get a real clear signal that this is over with and there’s still way too many things in the air, that we don’t know how they’re going to play out next year,” he said.
“So we’re going to maintain our positions in the conservative space.”
Barber Likes:
S&P Energy
S&P Health Care
Other Points of View:
Art Cashin: Markets Will Rally if Dollar 'Behaves'Why I'm Still Bullish: Top Portfolio ManagerMarket Is Overvalued by 20%: Rosenberg
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
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______________________________ Disclosures:
No immediate information was available for Barber or Genter.
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Disclaimer
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1fcca407f5c0b18f82408f2e4a8594ef | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/30year-mortgage-rate-remains-nearly-the-same.html | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Remains Nearly The Same | 30-Year Mortgage Rate Remains Nearly The Same
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edged up just slightly, averaging 5.03 percent for the week ending October 29, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 5.00 percent, according to Freddie Mac. Last year at this time, the 30-year averaged 6.46 percent.
The 15-year this week averaged 4.46 percent, up from last week when it averaged 4.43 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year averaged 6.19 percent.
The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.42 percent this week, up from last week when it averaged 4.40 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.36 percent.
The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 4.57 percent this week, up from last week when it averaged 4.54 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.38 percent.
“Interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages have averaged just below 5 percent this year, which is the lowest 10-month average since the survey began in 1971,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “As a result, refinance activity has accounted for almost seven out of 10 mortgage applications on average this year, according to Freddie Mac’s survey."
Government stimulus efforts, including up to $1.45 trillion of mortgage-related debt purchases by the Federal Reserve — the U.S. central bank, have sliced and held down borrowing costs to bolster the housing market and the economy.
Demand for mortgages, however, slid last week for the third straight week, with home purchase applications the weakest since mid-May and refinancing requests at a two-month low.
Many borrowers who would have applied for the federal $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit in the past week would be unlikely to close on their loans before the Nov. 30 deadline.
Congress is hashing out a possible extension of the tax credit to keep stoking the fragile housing market.
In reporting a 9.4 percent jump in existing home sales for September, the National Association for Realtors last week said first-time buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of sales during the past year.
New home sales, however, posted a surprise 3.6 percent drop last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday after rising the five prior months.
—Reuters contributed to this report
Slideshow: Highest End Real Estate
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bdc1ca52430295d197f24e8d6d11a6b9 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/80-years-since-the-crash-of-29.html | 80 Years Since the Crash of '29 | 80 Years Since the Crash of '29
This Day in Market History
The Dow fell 119.48 yesterday or 1.2% and many are talking about a correction in the markets that may be underway. After a run up of over 50% since the market lows in March, a pull back is natural. That, however, hardly compares to the events that began 80 years ago on October 28-29.
Before the Great Crash of 1929, the roaring twenties was a time of growing wealth... and speculation. From its low of 63 in August 1921 to its peak on September 3, 1929 at 381.17, the Dow had gained over 500%.
By the spring of 1929, the warning signs began to emerge and volatility was rapidly rising with daily swings that ranged as high as plus or minus 5%. Each time the Dow dropped, it recovered, at least until the fall of that year when it began to slide downward. After falling 8% over the 2 days from October 23-24, the market crashed on October 28 and 29, falling 13.5% and another 11.7%, or 23.6% over the two-day period and helping to lead the country to the Great Depression. After an initial 48% rally back from its low of 199 in November, the Dow proceeded to lose ~90% of its September high, closing at 41.22 on July 8, 1932. It took until late 1954 to reach its pre-crash levels.
At the start of the current financial crisis, many were comparing the events of today to the period of the Depression. Both crises were rooted in questionable lending practices and an economic bubble. In 1929, the market fell 48% from its high to its low and then rallied 48% while in the current recession, the market fell 54% from its intraday high to its low and then rallied 56% to its intraday high on October 21 last week.
So is history repeating itself? Hopefully and likely not. There are many more protections in place today and the economy has been showing signs of a slow recovery. GDP is expected to turn positive this quarter and will be reported later this morning.
Looking at the chart above, the 1929 crash was closer in pattern to the 1987 crash, at least for the first 200 trading days after their big falls. Both crashes began on "Black Mondays" and both times, the Dow fell ~23%. In 1987, the market initially came back, but unlike 1929, it kept rising and got back to its pre-crash levels by mid-1989. The Dow kept rising until mid-1990 when another recession began.
Sure the credit crisis of 2008-09 had much in common with 1929, particularly for financials like Bear Stearns, Lehman, Citigroup , Bank of America , and AIG . However, and in the end, the Great Crash of 1929 stands alone and hopefully will never repeat again.
Comments? Send them to bythenumbers@cnbc.com
bythenumbers.cnbc.com
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14b9e2f61241c840e4377591e7507343 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/avatar-hype-soars-thanks-to-tech.html | Avatar Hype Soars Thanks to Tech | Avatar Hype Soars Thanks to Tech
Sunday will be a huge sports day: NFL games, Game 4 of the World Series. And now it will be a big movie and tech day as well.
Source: avatarmovie.com
There's probably no bigger blockbuster this year than James Cameron's technological showpiece called "Avatar," his first film since "Titanic," and billed as the greatest 3D tech film ever produced. Cameron's been working on this concept for 14 years, but not until computing power caught up with his concept could he actually begin the production process.
Images have been shrouded in secrecy; he and his team actually created some of their own hardware and software to make this film, which is widely expected to be the single biggest catalyst yet to bring 3D filmmaking mainstream. Not since Dreamworks' Jeffrey Katzenberg announced that all his studio's films would be 3D has an event had such a major influence on this kind of filmmaking.
Even when a chunk of this movie was being shown in theaters, it became an "event," a tough ticket to secure. The blogs went nuts. The hype is already at fever pitch.
Which leads me to Sunday. In partnership with Fox, Avatar will become an afternoon event with its own kind of Super Bowl of advertising. A 3 minute, 30 second trailer of the film will be shown on the world's biggest HD screen, the 4-sided Mitsubishi Diamond Electric monster at the new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. The screen measures 72 feet x 120 feet, stretches from 20 yard line to 20 yard line, weighs 600 tons and features 10.5 million LED lights. Stunning.
Fox will switch all its programming to it. The trailer will air during the Fox pre-game, and then shorter ads will run across all of Fox's programming through the day.
Fox estimates 1 million people will view this trailer's debut, making it the biggest trailer premiere ever.
It's about the power of the technology, not just in the film's production, but the film's advertising and distribution. The blogosphere is going nuts for this picture, and come Sunday, Fox will feed the beast another small morsel.
Let the Avatar tech hype continue.
The movie opens December 18 - while you wait, check out the trailer.
Questions? Comments? TechCheck@cnbc.com
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be256f759828cfa87023a7d2782edd36 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/barbies-sugar-daddy.html | Barbie's Sugar Daddy? | Barbie's Sugar Daddy?
There is one man in Palm Beach who hasn't lost his fortune in a Ponzi scheme: Ken.
Barbie Palm Beach Sugar Daddy Ken DollSource: entertainmentearth.com
For those of you who thought Barbie's boyfriend couldn't be any more emasculated, Mattel is releasing the "Palm Beach Sugar Daddy Ken".
This Ken is like a Florida version of Mr. Blackwell, dressed in "a dashing jacquard-patterned jacket with a light pink polo shirt and crisp white pants."
Entertainment Earthis preselling the dolls for $70, which is already a markdown from $82, and the doll's not even available until April.
But Ken as Sugar Daddy?
Is that the message you want to send to those young girls playing Barbie?
We have it all wrong, according to the New York Post. Ken is the daddy of "Sugar" — the name of the little white dog which comes with the doll. Wink, wink.
Besides, Mattel says this Ken isn't being marketed to girls. Or boys. He's designed for the toymaker's adult Barbie collection. The Palm Beach Ken hopes to meet "popular demand from Mattel's Barbie adult enthusiasts, who wanted a Ken doll that could hold his own as part of the already popular Barbie Fashion Model Collection..."
I think I'll pass on the Sugar Daddy Ken.
Ken doll as Mr. SpockSource: barbiecollector.com
However, on the collector Web site, I found Ken as Star Trek's Mr. Spock.
Fascinating.
Neither feel emotion, and both have difficult relationships with women.
Slideshow: Toy Makers Get NostalgicBeyond Barbie - Hot Costume IdeasSlideshow - Barbie Turns 50
Questions?
Comments?
Funny Stories? Email
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8d65995ec6b14094985ed62ac3beacfe | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/charting-the-market.html | Charting The Market | Charting The Market
Kotick Tick By TickCNBC.com
Time for our weekly tick by tick of charts with Jordan Kotick, Global Head of Technical Analysis at Barclays.
Q. Stocks are under pressure around the world, especially markets like the Nasdaq.
What is your read on this?
A. Consistently since June, Risk in general and equities specifically have undergone a corrective move near the end of the month.
October is no different. While ultimately faded, these moves take time to play out. The Nasdaq being a market leader to the top side and a high volatility sector as well, tends to see the most aggressive move to the top side and the downside
CNBC.com
Q. The dollar has also caught a bid. Is this correlated, what are you watching there?
A. The US dollar has been trading as a proxy for risk for the last 1 to 2 years. Remember how strong the dollar was when the market crashed last year for example. So if stocks correct, risk comes off, the dollar will be bid. We are watching EM space specifically, for example, Malaysian Ringgit and Indian Rupee. While both look to strengthen against the Dollar, they are also, as expected going through an uptick and corrective process
CNBC.com
Q. Anything else we should keep an eye regarding risk short term?
A. Commodities. They are important in and of themselves
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87a17a9e331a787db5cce75355550163 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/charts-predict-gold-could-fall-toward-980.html | Charts Predict: Gold Could Fall Toward $980 | Charts Predict: Gold Could Fall Toward $980
The price of gold could be in the middle of a major turnaround and could be heading lower, toward $1,015 per troy ounce and possibly $980, Chris Zwermann, global strategist from Zwermann Financial told CNBC Thursday.
VIDEO3:5603:56Charts: Gold Could Fall Toward $980
The gold chart is showing what could be a diamond formation, which after such a long rally tends to signal some kind of a turnaround, according to Zwermann.
A diamond formation was seen in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2000, Zwermann points out. The Dow subsequently saw sharp declines for much for 2001 and 2002.
"So if this is a diamond, which shows a turnaround, we're going to see gold going to 1,015 (dollar per troy ounce) first of all. And if we might reach on this retracement of the last five ways up, then we see $980," Zwermann said.
A decline of that magnitude could form a large head-and-shoulders pattern in the long-term gold charts, Zwermann added.
If gold shows continued weakness it could have implications for stocks as well, he said.
- Watch the full interview with Chris Zwermann above.
For the Investor:
Market Tips: Oil Is Now VulnerablePullback Is Buy Opportunity—Not Correction: Strategists
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c47e1226a9974f96028fbc9846cd1e1d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/christmas-creep-pushes-holiday-buying-into-october.html | 'Christmas Creep' Pushes Holiday Buying Into October | 'Christmas Creep' Pushes Holiday Buying Into October
Sears took "Christmas creep" one step further Wednesday, pitching its weekly sales as "Black Friday doorbuster" deals before Halloween.
Sears
The merchant, owned by struggling parent company Sears Holdings, said it would kick off the weekly specials Friday evening and open stores at least two hours early every Saturday through Thanksgiving, hoping to draw shoppers with the promise of markdowns before the day after Thanksgiving.
The traditional shopping spree — dubbed Black Friday because it often was the day when a surge of shoppers helped stores break into profitability for the full year — has marked the kickoff of holiday shopping for many shoppers. But its importance has faded in recent years as merchants started hawking the deep sales and expanded hours usually reserved for that day well in advance.
Sears' decision to start the sales nearly a full month in advance of the traditional Nov. 27 shopping spree shows just how desperate the struggling chain — and its competitors — are ahead of what's expected to be a grim holiday season.
George Rosenbaum, chairman of the retail consulting firm Leo J. Shapiro and Associates, said he expects other merchants to change their traditional Black Friday strategies, too, either by offering deeper-than-usual discounts or expanding the amount of time they're available to shoppers.
"Retailers are prepared for the worst," he said. "(They're) going to go even more aggressively than they did last year."
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart is already advertising its selection of holiday toys for under $10, and Amazon , Target and Wal-Mart are all going head-to-head slashing down prices on yet-to-be released hardcovers that are for sale on their Web sites.
Walmart StoreSource: Walmart
At best, economists expect holiday sales to be flat from a year ago, when businesses recorded their biggest declines in at least four decades. Economic data released Tuesday showed an even more grim picture, as shoppers said they were worried about job security.
"I think retailers are not counting on much improvement to begin with," said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Sears spokeswoman Natalie Norris-Howser said the deals will rotate each week. But they'll be available only from 7 a.m. until noon each Saturday. (For the first week of the promotion, Sears will begin the sales this Friday at 5 p.m.)
Norris-Howser said Sears, which is based in Hoffman Estates, Ill., will also offer Saturday specials after Black Friday in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
Among the discounts advertised by Sears are a 302-piece Craftsman mechanic's tool set that's half off, a $400 elliptical machine that typically sells for $700, and $80 diamond earnings that are marked down almost 70 percent.
The following week's specials include a 42-inch Zenith plasma screen TV for $499, about 23 percent off.
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a6d29249e34e135ebfa72e796046ebf6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/commodities-fab-four-and-a-motley-crew.html | Commodities: Fab Four And A Motley Crew | Commodities: Fab Four And A Motley Crew
So much for the supply-and-demand dynamic. Once again, the most important equation for the commodities markets these days is the value of the dollar.
Gold BarsAP
Yes, the Asian-led world economic recovery has something to do with the price strength, and, yes, China is a huge consumer of all types of commodities, but like during the boom of two years ago, the US currency is a key consideration.
“But if the dollar keeps weakening,” says Gavin Maguire, Director of Research at EHedger, “nearly all commodities will favor the upside.”
The influence of the dollar is so great because all commodities are priced in the US currency, and today most dollars are consumed and held in countries outside of the U.S.
“With our government continuing to provide cheap money to the market place to help finance the recovery, commodities are going to outperform other asset classes going forward,” says Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global.
Follow The Dollar
That said, the biggest risk factor for commodities over the next few months is the reallocation of money back into the dollar. If there is a major correction in the stock market, investors will look for safety in the dollar, and that would be a caveat for the whole complex.
“Without that big switch in sentiment, the trends that we have seen over the six months will continue to play themselves out going forward,” says Klopfenstein.
Given this backdrop, here are some commodities that will be strong this winter and some others that will be vulnerable, particularly if there is a pullback in the equity market.
Gold: Still No. 1
VIDEO5:0205:02Bullish on Commodities, Agriculture: Strategist
With gold at record highs, it’s hard to believe that it will go any higher. Oh well.
“But gold is particularly affected by the weakness of the dollar because it has always been viewed as a safe haven for catastrophes and depreciation of currencies,” says Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems Inc.
And, if the global economy continues to do well, we will still see even more people want to put their money into gold. In the emerging markets, for example, banking systems are less developed than in the U.S., so people tend to buy more physical gold. The central banks themselves are starting to buy gold to diversify some of their reserves.
Other factors that should increase demand in the fourth quarter are the Chinese New Year and the Indian wedding season. Gold is a very popular gift and jewelry item in the two countries.
Sugar: Raising Cane
Stack of sugar cane sticks
Sugar is one of the few commodities whose short supply would drive its price higher, regardless of the dollar situation.The lack of rain in India, one of the largest sugar suppliers, has been a bullish force. If that situation does not improve in the coming months, it will be even more so.There are also questions about whether Brazil is going to continue to make ethanol with the sugar that it produces, or start selling more of it on the open market. “A lot of people want to see more information out of Brazil,” says Klopfenstein.
Crude Oil: As The World Turns
The defacto boss of the commodities sector, oil, is a prime example of the boost the weak dollar is giving commodity prices. Inventories are large, and demand is hardly spectacular. Though he says we will likely have some violent swings on both sides, Klopfenstein projects that crude will try to test $100 a barrel over the next six or seven months.
Energy: Complete Coverage
Asian demand is also a significant factor. A few years ago, Asia started to outpace Europe and by 2012, some predict it will also outpace the U.S. on a per-day basis.
“Oil has the potential to keep climbing if there is a rebound in global industrial activity, like more cars in India and China,” Maguire says.
Corn: Food-Fuel Factor
Though it is early in the season to talk about grains, the most positive market in the complex is corn. Because it is a feed source for humans and livestock, demand will stay pretty stable in the near term. That stability should lead to future demand.
Maguire expects corn prices to weaken 15 -20 percent up to December then rebound around the new year because of the U.S. harvest cycle.“If you fast forward six months, corn will be at a price higher than today, but in the interim you can buy it for a cheaper price. Farmers will look at other crops if they don’t see corn prices above $4, which will decrease supply and raise prices in the longer term," Klopfenstein points out.
Natural Gas: Bloated Feeling
If there is a pullback in equities and a rally in the dollar, the commodities that will get hit the hardest are going to be the ones that had the least amount of upside in the first place, says Klopfenstein.Though natural gas has lagged, it is starting to move higher due to seasonal factors. If this winter is not colder than expected in the northern part of the U.S., than prices will start heading lower because of significant inventory.
Soybeans: Blame It On Rio
Soybeans, which have been one of the strongest commodities for the past six to eight months due to a drought in Argentina, have the potential to turn into one of the weaker commodities in the agricultural realm.With a record amount of crop expected out of South America in the early part of 2010, adding to a likely record-size U.S. crop, the market is anticipating at least 30 million more tons of soybeans than last year, says Maguire. Though there are many uses for the soybean, and Chinese demand will remain hefty, production will be much larger than demand.
Wheat: Amber Wave
Wheat also looks like it will be an underperformer for the opening months of 2010. In 2008, wheat prices sky-rocketed because of two consecutive droughts in Australia and growing problems in other regions. That period of price strength sent out strong production signals and the result has been a surge in production. which flooded the market.
Aluminum: Low Profile
Aluminum may lag quite a bit compared to the rest of the sector. Though metals are tied to industrial growth, there will be a meaningful jump in aluminum demand only when there is a discernible increase in aircraft manufacturing or new building construction, says Maguire.“People are actually still cutting back on that side of things,” he says. Aluminum is tied to macro level industrial expansion, while copper is used in everything from alarm clocks to air conditioners.
Latest Metals Prices
Lumber: Petrified Wood
Like aluminum, lumber is used in new construction, and has not been an attractive market lately. Lumber prices right now are at their lowest since the mid 1980. Though no one in the U.S. will break ground in the winter months, building will eventually pick up again, and lumber is always going to be a crucial ingredient, says Maguire. If you want to buy something at historically cheap levels that plays a crucial role in any kind of global industrial recovery, lumber is one of those things.
Cocoa: Too Hot?
There have been questions about the size of the crop in the Ivory Coast, and whether cocoa is overdone on the upside.“It is a discretionary item, and it is a lot easier for the end consumer to pass on, as opposed to beans or corn which are food staples,” says Klopfenstein. If the equity market reverses and the dollar gains strength, this will be a market that will fall pretty hard, he adds.
Investing OptionsIf you are looking to get in to the commodities game, the good news is there are several ways to make them a part of your portfolio. The bad news is there are at least as many opinions as to which is the best way to do it. Choices include commodity stocks, exchange traded funds or commodities (ETFs or ETCs), commodity futures and commodity mutual funds.
Winterizing Your Portfolio - A CNBC Special Report
One possibility is to buy stock in a commodity company, or one that has something to do with the production of a commodity. Here, you are not as prone to the volatility that is often associated with commodities, but you are not just trading the commodity, you’re trading the balance sheet and the management structure of that particular company, and that also has risk.Exchange traded funds that are index funds that can be traded through brokerage accounts like stocks. ETFs are one of the easier ways to get involved, but you have to be careful because some of them are not set up well at all, says Gary.“For example, they’ll buy December corn, and then before it becomes deliverable in November they will roll that to March. Well, March is always a higher price than December because of the cost of carrying the corn, storing the corn and insurance, and so on. They are forever buying a higher price.”
Latest Commodities Prices
“You can get ETFs through most brokers, but they are generally for a relatively sophisticated investor,” says Matthew Samelson, principal at Woodbine Associates.A commodity future is an agreement to buy or sell a given commodity at specific price on a specific delivery date. It is advantageous because it is a pure play on price behavior, and because you can access them 24 hours a day.“When used with appropriate risk management strategies like stops or options, an individual investor not only has the opportunity to catch upside but protect yourself against the downside,” says Klopfenstein. The bad news with futures is that you can get yourself in to trouble with leverage.
Like other mutual funds, commodity funds give investors the option of adding diversified commodities to their portfolio and limit the risk associated with the commodities market. A lot of them you can invest as little as five or ten thousand dollars in so it doesn’t take a lot of money to invest in those.Oppenheimer, PIMCO, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, for example, all offer commodity mutual funds. If you don’t want to talk to you broker ten times a day, you might be better off with a commodity fund.The bottom line—find what works for you. And, if you’re serious about putting commodities in your life, with the expected rally in the market, there is no time like the present.
Personal Finance Tips
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6503b77638482a4ccbdbda9aa7fbdac5 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/cramer-congress-holds-key-to-nat-gas-future.html | If natural gas is going to reach its potential as a bridge fuel between carbon-coughing crude oil and clean-air solar and wind power, the commodity’s going to need some strong Washington backing. But right now nat gas’ pipsqueak-sized political muscle is being outflexed by a lumberjack-like coal lobby, which means the better fossil fuel isn’t getting its due.
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
Anytime natural gas makes some progress within the Beltway, Cramer’s overjoyed. Such was the case when Oklahoma Congressman Dan Boren landed $5 million in additional funding for nat-gas vehicle research, as an amendment to the 2010 Energy and Water Appropriations Act. The Blue Dog Democrat also teamed up with Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Tim Murphy to form the Congressional Natural Gas Caucus. They may not sound like much, but these moves were crucial to kick-starting an otherwise stalled out nat-gas push in Washington.
Boren’s home just happens to be the location of Mad Money’s next Back to School Tour stop on Friday, at the University of Oklahoma in Norman. But the Sooner State’s also a big natural gas area, as it’s the fourth largest in terms of reserves and the second largest in terms of production. Who better to ask about the commodity’s political prospects than Boren himself? Watch the video for Cramer’s full interview.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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809fe04b5dca6c2d7eb7be3388d8c286 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/doubling-down.html | Doubling Down? | Doubling Down?
Are options traders doubling down on Las Vegas Sands ahead of earnings?
That appears to be the case with today's action.
There was heavy call buying along a number of strikes in the November expiry, as well as a notable trade at the January 20-strike, where one investor bought over 11,000 calls.
Like a gambler down to their last chips, options traders are betting that the stock's recent pullback from $17 was a temporary cold streak, perhaps in sympathy with Wynn Resorts, which also fell following some disappointing results.
Still, concerns abound over Las Vegas Sands' ability to raise capital through its expected Macau IPO. "Wynn Macao's poor showing in Hong Kong since its own offering will weigh on LVS. The Wynn Macao deal originally came in at $10.08 hk and is now trading for $9.10," said Dan Nathan, Options Action star and options king at Phoenix Partners.
3Q earnings preview: Las Vegas Sands Corp.Ahead of the Bell: Wynn Resorts upgraded
Questions, comments send them to us at: optionsaction@cnbc.com
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e84d98a61fe7d43b87456e339cc9d1a2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/gdp-up-dollar-down-troubles-remain.html | GDP Up, Dollar Down, Troubles Remain | GDP Up, Dollar Down, Troubles Remain
Today’s report of 3.5 percent GDP growthfor the third quarter ending in September signals the end of the long recession.
Although there are glitches in the GDP story - including the one-time impact of and the erratic bouncing around of disposable income from quarter to quarter (largely a result of government handouts), the fact remains that the economy is improving and that the big stock market rally is confirmed.
Wall Street economists like Joe LaVorgna and Michael Darda expect 4 percent growth in the quarters ahead. My own view is that this will be a business-led recovery, not only in terms of capital-spending investment, but also business-to-business transactions. Corporate cash flows are very strong and profits are improving. Economy-wide productivity is very high. And let’s not forget the Fed’s highly expansionary policies, with a zero target rate, a steep Treasury curve, and a growing balance sheet.
All of which raises an important policy point. As the economy recovers, where’s the exit strategy for all this stimulus? To protect the dollar, the Fed should be raising its target rate, or at the very least hint at raising it by changing the wording of next week’s policy statement.
Gold roared up today as the greenback fell again. Stocks are mounting a huge 200-point rally as of this writing. World markets are anticipating an inflationary recovery in the United States. And never-ending federal debt creation from more and more government spending adds to the greenback’s woes.
Restoration of King Dollar would be a tax cut for the whole economy. Think of it in oil terms: Crude oil jumped $2.40 today to $80 a barrel. If the dollar keeps sliding, oil is going to keep rising. And that’s a tax hike for the economy. It would block recovery. But if King Dollar were restored to its thrown, oil and other commodities would stay put, amounting to a de facto tax cut -- a spur to growth.
Winterizing Your Portfolio - A CNBC Special Report
President Obama had a tepid response to today’s GDP report, as the administration contemplates more spending for a second stimulus package. That’s exactly what currency markets do not want to see.
Meanwhile, Treasury man Geithner talks about ending the too-big-to-fail policy for banks. But his idea sounds suspiciously like TARP in perpetuity -- where the government would take over failed banks, mostly at taxpayer expense, with some of it paid for by other bank insurance assessments. But TARP in perpetuity, stimulus in perpetuity, and easy-money in perpetuity is a fiscal/monetary overload that will reduce our potential to grow.
It is a great thing that the financial meltdown is over and the Great Recession has come to an end. But profligate policies will surely undermine the private free-enterprise economy’s valiant efforts to recover.
More On CNBC.com
Slideshow: Biggest Holders of US Gov't DebtSlideshow: World's Biggest Debtor Nations
Questions? Comments, send your emails to: lkudlow@kudlow.com
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41db2575e23b95acfdc4bbdbd42d6278 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/green-car-incentives-are-just-starting-to-roll.html | Green Car Incentives Are Just Starting To Roll | Green Car Incentives Are Just Starting To Roll
If it's not clear to you yet, it should be. The green wave of incentives, tax breaks, and government grants is just starting to wash over auto companies and customers.
T
Tesla
he latest comes from the state of California, which is waiving $29 million in sales taxes on equipment needed for the expansion of Tesla Production in that state.
That sweetener is just part of the green wave of green flowing toward cleaner and greener cars.
The Department of Energy is in the midst of doling out billions to automakers as diverse as Ford and Fisker as well as to parts suppliers including Tenneco.
The goal: kick start production of green vehicles and technology.
The Carbon Challenge - A CNBC Special Report - See Complete Coverage
36 States around the country are offering rebates on hybrids and electric cars.
The $42,038 rebate on $110,000 Tesla will get a lot of attention (and chuckles), but that's one extreme and unusual example. The norm is in other states where buyers are getting a couple grand back.
Don't kid yourself. This is just starting. We are at the beginning of a major clean auto push that will last many years. If you thought interest in developing alternative powered cars and trucks would die out with gas prices moderating over the last 8 months, think again.
Critics will say it is ridiculous to give the public and automakers incentives to go green. In their opinion, the money is better spent in other ways, in other industries. When I hear this, I scratch my head. Mainly because few of these critics have clearly explained to me why it is a bad idea to foster development of next generation vehicles.
Like it or not, the green machines are coming and elected leaders are driving the change with incentives and tax dollars.
Slideshow: Top Ten Gas-Sipping Cars
Bookmark Alert: Track All the Dow Transports Here
_____________________________________Click on Ticker to Track Corporate News:
- Ford Motor
- Toyota Motor
- Nissan
- Honda Motor
_____________________________________
Questions? Comments? BehindTheWheel@cnbc.com
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7db40a3f6e59070bc238b7d0eddeed62 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/halftime-report-trade-like-the-recession-is-over.html | Both the Dow and S&P 500 rallied on Thursday following four losing sessions as data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter after more than a year of contraction.
Specifically, better than expected GDP numbers sent the bulls off and running after the latest numbers showed the economy expanded at a 3.5%, unofficially ending the worst recession in 70 years. Also quarterly profits at consumer product giants Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive both surpassed expectations, and lifted investors sentiment.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Halftime Report
What should you be watching?
I’m still negative on the market, explains Christopher Zook of CAZ. The pop today is likely a reaction to the overly pessimistic reaction to GDP we got on Wednesday afternoon. But I’m more focused on the uptrend that started on March 9th. That trend line is now broken. That says to me we’re on a neutral path not a bullish one.
I’m also closely watching patterns in the S&P, explains Greg Trocolli of Opalesque. Specifically, I’m closely watching 1066 as an inflection point. If we get above 1066 all short bets are off.
Also watch the Vix counsels OptionMonster Jon Najarian. It’s down significantly which may be confirmation that investors are getting out of the way -- to the upside. If the S&P closes above 1063, then I think the rally is back on.
When I look at Thursday’s GDP I think without the government stimulus we’d be in a terrible position, muses Michael Gurka of Empower. As far as I’m concerned the market action today is shorts unwinding their positions.
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MOTOROLA IGNITES TECH TRADE
The smartphone trade seems to be back on after Motorola forecast a higher-than-expected profit for the current quarter.
Investors recently turned bullish on this stock after the firm announced plans to release its new Droid phone on November 6th – in an attempt to win market share from Apple’s iPhone.
What’s the trade?I think there is more upside to come in the smartphone space, muses Greg Troccoli.
I would not be a buyer, counters Christopher Zook. RIM and Palm charts both look broken to me.
----------THE OBAMA TRADE: HOMEBUILDERS
The Homebuilders ETF traded higher on Thursday after a published report suggested Congress is not only poised to extend the home buyer tax credit for first-time homebuyers through April -- but also expand coverage to repeat buyers.
The report said the tax credit would remain at its current $8,000 for first-time buyers, while a new credit for repeat buyers of a primary residence who have been in their house for at least five years would receive a credit of $6,500.
What’s the trade?I ‘d look downstream in this space, says Jon Najarian. I think the trade is longMohawk Industries , he says. And I’d look at Masco too, also as a derivative play.
Or think about long copper , counsels Mike Gurka. Historically it’s still cheap. Unless I see a major rejection I’m positive on the metal.
----------TRADERS BETTING ON LAS VEGAS SANDS
Jim Iurio has spotted unusual options activity in Las Vegas Sands.
The volume of Jan 20 calls traded suggests to him that this stock could make a significant move higher. Iuiro suggests that big investors are betting LVS earnings will surprise to the upside.----------
CALL THE CLOSE
Jon Najarian: I’m long into the bell.
Greg Troccoli: I’m short with a stop at 1072.
Christopher Zook: I’m short.
Michael Gurka: I’m long. We held a trend line of 1033.
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .Trader disclosure: On October 29th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (MYL), (INTC), (MSFT), (VALE); Seymour Is Short (FXI); Grasso Owns (AAPL), (ABK), (BA), (C), (COST), (PFE), (WMT), (FAZ); Terranova Owns (IBM), (QCOM), (GS); Finerman Owns (BAC), (PDE), (TGT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Owns (PDE), (FLS), (RIG), (TBT), (YUM); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (UNG), (TLT); Jon Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls, Jon Najarian Owns (AMD) Calls For Steve GrassoStuart Frankel Owns (MSFT)Stuart Frankel Owns (PFE)Stuart Franked Owns (SDS) CNBC.com with wires
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9c9a6148617f5fe905376a651623aeea | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/hollywoods-halloween-poem.html | Hollywood's Halloween Poem | Hollywood's Halloween Poem
Hollywood SignGary Minnaert
It's been a pretty scary year for Hollywood — massive reorganization, layoffs, and a general streamlining of the industry. And while the box office so far this year is up nearly 7 percent from last year, the specialty film divisions at the major studios have all but disappeared and financing for independent films has dried up.
Now rumors of potential M&A activity has development execs quaking in their Prada loafers.
So this year when a group of young industry executives who share a house in the Hollywood Hills started writing the e-vite to their annual bash, they had plenty of 'scary' material to draw upon.
Below is the e-vite to a popular Hollywood Hills Halloween party, inspired by Edgar Allan Poe's "The Raven."
I take no ownership of the opinions presented below, I just think the witty poem gives remarkable insight into the angst and issues that are top of mind in Hollywood.
The hosts work for the major studios, and spend their time, when they're not schmoozing with other "creative executive" types, obsessively reading piles of scripts trying to find a winner. They're acutely aware of the inner-workings and drama between agents (Ari Emanuel is referenced in the second paragraph) and the moguls. Note the fear of the change and the industry's continued shift to produce commercial fare based on existing intellectual property.
Take a read:
Once upon an October's eve nearly... 4 years ago it was nothing but merely, Laboring over quaint and curious scripts of forgettable bore.While we nodded, clearly napping, suddenly it started happening,As of the sound of Wall St. crapping, crapping at our industry's door."Tis some revenue loss," they muttered, "ruining our second quar.Only this and nothingmore."Ah distinctly I remember it was only last November,That the economy dismembered and left the congloms feeling sore.Eagerly I wished for '09 - vainly I had thought we'd be fine.But instead the year was unkind, unkind to 1 of the agencies' big 4.For the rare and radiant company whom the agents named William Morr.Nameless to Ari, forevermore.And the silken, sad, dress rehearsal for the pending takeover of Universal,Chills me - kills me to think that studio name soon might be no more.So that now for my next job to keep eating I stand & practice my repeating,"Welcome visitor, to the brand new Comcast Studios Tour!And Comcast Studios Horror Nights - you're sure to see some gore!"Ah, we'll miss the Lew Wasserman lore.But it's October again, my soul grows stronger, hesitating then no longer,"People," say we, "and moguls. Truly your attention we implore.Cause the fact is we're having a party, whether or not the economy's hearty, and it won't take Sherlock or Moriarty to realize this is nothing to ignore.That annual Halloween party, featuring those huge bouncers at the door.Yes. This is it. An invite to Halloween party 4.Deep into this email peering, you sit there wondering, fearing,Should I go? Will it be overcrowded like two years ago before?Then you look around, script pile unbroken, you stop to wonder what you're smoking. You ask yourself, "Who am I joking," of course I'll be there for number 4."So drag thee to hell, you terrible spec, you'll never cause a bidding war!"Stop thy reading and enjoy our Halloween decor.Back into the office sighing, "who needs these specs? No one's buying."But then in steps a stately being unlike anything from days of yore.No pages was he made of, and yet I was still afraid of,This creature who simply called himself a 'brand awareness whore.'Mumbling something about Clue & Battleship, he perched upon a Ouija board.Perched and said, "Properties, fool, that's all you need to look for!"So just embrace it and stop the reading, and you too will start succeeding, Finding mere titles for movies as studios shrink from 6 to 4.That'll leave more time for drinkin so you won't have to do much thinkin,but instead with glasses clinking just enjoy our Party four.Good times forevermore
Ah, Back in the Day - Biggest Grossing Movies of All Time
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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dee1ecf040517127bb3fde6a453a109f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/is-the-rally-back-on-or-was-gdp-a-headfake.html | Investors rushed into stocks on Thursday after stronger-than-expected GDP sent the bulls off to the races.
The Dow surged by triple digits after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 3.5 percent, the best increase in two years and broke four consecutive quarters of declines.
Coming on the 80th anniversary of the stock market crash that triggered the Great Depression, it was the best indication yet that the longest recession since then has ended.
But before you buy yourself a red cape and matador’s hat to navigate the bull run – you might want to stop and take a breath. The bears may be down but are they out?
Many analysts believe it may be hard to keep GDP growing. The economy was bolstered during the third quarter by government stimulus programs including the popular Cash for Clunkers auto rebates and tax credits for first-time home buyers. Once the government's stimulus measures run their course, analysts are worried the economic rebound might not be sustainable.
Also high unemployment and weak consumer spending continue to vex the economy.
The question is will it get back on its own sound footing or will it continue to hobble, says Wyatt Crumpler, vice president of asset management at American Beacon Advisor. We're a bit pessimistic in the short-term.
You might say David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff chief economist & strategist is a bit pessimistic too. “Don’t forget just how much medicine the government administered to get that number to 3.5%. If you look at the economy outside the stimulus -- the GDP was flat,” he tells Fast Money emphatically!Rosenberg is a widely celebrated bear. And as far as we can tell, he's not changing his tune anytime soon.
“I’m not in the double dip camp but neither do I think we see 4% GDP which is being priced into the market," he adds.So what must you know to trade stocks?“What’s driven the equity markets this year has been dramatic short covering in the financials and the hedge funds making up for last year’s performance. This has been a low volume rally. It’s not difficult to get exaggerated up-moves on low volumes." What's the takeaway here? "By the end of the year the market is going to be lower!” Rosenberg concludes.
What do you think? We want to know!
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send those e-mails to .Trader disclosure: On October 29th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (MYL), (INTC), (MSFT), (VALE); Seymour Is Short (FXI); Grasso Owns (AAPL), (ABK), (BA), (C), (COST), (PFE), (WMT), (FAZ); Terranova Owns (IBM), (QCOM), (GS); Finerman Owns (BAC), (PDE), (TGT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Owns (PDE), (FLS), (RIG), (TBT), (YUM); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (UNG), (TLT); Jon Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls, Jon Najarian Owns (AMD) Calls For Steve GrassoStuart Frankel Owns (MSFT)Stuart Frankel Owns (PFE)Stuart Franked Owns (SDS) CNBC.com with wires
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39078d8f72032ba35c8f92c3b590e924 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/lloyds-finalizes-33-billon-capital-plan.html | Lloyds Finalizes $33 Billon Capital Plan | Lloyds Finalizes $33 Billon Capital Plan
Lloyds Banking Group inched closer to plugging a capital gap of more than 20 billion pounds ($33 billion), boosting the British bank's shares on prospects a deal could happen before the year end.
The country's biggest retail bank said on Thursday it was looking to raise capital through a rights issue and a debt swap, for the first time confirming widely reported details of its plans to stay out of a government-backed asset insurance scheme.
Lloyds said it was in advanced discussions with regulators, a sign it is getting more confident it can escape the asset protection scheme (APS), which could have triggered further European Union anti-trust sanctions.
The bank is keen to announce its plans to raise capital at the same time as any sanctions it faces from the EU, after the UK scooped a stake of up 43 percent in the bank in last year's emergency bailout, sources close to the situation have said.
Lloyds stock was up 7.5 percent at 86.00 pence, rebounding from Wednesday's lowest close in more than three months.
Sharon Lorimer
Lloyds shares had lost ground this week as the market feared an order from Europe's anti-trust regulators for Dutch bancassurer ING to break up its business after receiving state aid set a harsh precedent for the British bank.
"I think the comments today provide comfort that the group will not be broken up and that any restructuring initiatives will not be particularly material to group earnings or capital," said Joe Dickerson, UK banks analyst at brokerage Execution.
In reference to its talks with Brussels, the bank said: "(Lloyds) is confident that the final terms of its restructuring plan, including any required divestments of assets, will not have a material impact on the group." Its comments came as Ireland's finance minister sought to downplay worries about a delay to his 54 billion euro bad bank plan, saying it could still proceed on schedule unless parliament gets bogged down in a lengthy debate.
Final Details
Sources familiar with the matter on Thursday gave new details of Lloyd's campaign to stay out of the APS.
It has lined up a mandatory convertible bond of 2 billion pounds and a series of actions agreed with the Financial Services Authority, they said, such as cost cuts and a reduction of risk-weighted assets.
It also plans a rights issue of 12 billion pounds and contingent capital -- "top up" hybrid capital that changes into equity if the bank hits trouble -- of 7 billion pounds, bringing the total to well over 21 billion pounds.
Lloyds declined to comment.
The bank has yet to receive the green light from regulators to stay out of the APS plan and absorb any further losses on toxic assets without state aid.
It said in March it wanted to insure 260 billion pounds worth of assets under the scheme.
"There can be no certainty at this stage that any alternative to (the government insurance scheme) will proceed. All options remain open," Lloyds said.
A Treasury official likewise said talks with Lloyds were continuing and no decisions had been made.
Sources close to the situation have said Lloyds hopes to launch its plans next week, if it gets approval.
That would enable it to raise the money before Christmas, its preferred time schedule.
A further delay would increase the risk that markets turn sour.
The Treasury has given Lloyds the go-ahead to explore market sentiment and reassure it that private investors are willing to bear the risk of its massive capital addition, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
"They have been given the go-ahead (to find out) whether they can get it done and underwriters need to explore whether they can deliver," one of the sources said.
"The government is conscious of the risk and if they believe it's too high they won't give them the go-ahead ... the second gets answered by the first," the source said.
The bank has yet to officially mandate the banks it has lined up for the rights issue: UBS, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Cazenove and HSBC .
Markets have been bracing for wild swings in Lloyds's share price, with stock lending -- an often-used indicator for short-selling -- rising sharply this month.
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5aa4e9cfcac0187a9426190511795c45 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/losey-4-preretirement-factors-for-investing-your-money.html | Losey: 4 Pre-Retirement Factors For Investing Your Money | Losey: 4 Pre-Retirement Factors For Investing Your Money
Question: What are some things I should keep in mind if I want to reach the goal of retirement within three years? Thanks in advance for your response. Lorri, MA
Answer: Lorri, whether your goal is retirement in 3 years, a new car in 5 years, or college education in eighteen years, in order to reach your goal a savings/investment plan has to have four distinct yet interrelated factors, each of which contributes to the success or failure of your plan.
Factor #1: Your contribution amount. How much are you saving every paycheck now? Is more or less money necessary to reach your goal? Have you factored in inflation for the ultimate cost of your retirement? Factor #2: Your rate of return. How much money are you earning in interest, dividends and capital gains? What is your portfolios expected rate of return? What kind of annual rate of return have you earned over the last 5-10 years? Can you earn a higher rate of return? Are you playing it too safe? Are you investing too aggressively? How will your portfolio withdrawals be taxed? Factor #3: Your time frame. You wish to retire within three years. Is it possible this timeframe could be shortened or should it be extended? If retirement was possible today, would you still work for three more years? Factor #4: The amount of your goal. How much have you saved toward your retirement goal already? Can this goal amount be adjusted? How much is really needed?
Bill’s Bottom-line: Have a written plan to accomplish your goal and monitor your progress regularly. When you put your goals down on paper, you’re more likely to achieve them.
Slideshow: 10 Most Popular Relocation CitiesThe World's Best Places To StayCNBC's Personal Finance Page
_________________________Bill Losey, CFP®, America's Retirement Strategist®, coaches women and couples nationwide with their retirement planning and investment portfolios. Bill is the author of Retire in a Weekend! The Baby Boomer’s Guide to Making Work Optional and he also publishes Retirement Intelligence®, a free weekly award-winning newsletter. You can learn more at .
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449d25bc427c56b511ffe3f53f49657f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/mad-mail-go-all-in-on-gold.html | Hi Jim: I am 23 years old and invested all my savings into Barrick Gold. I was hoping to capitalize on gold going up. In the past week I have lost a lot of money with gold stocks coming down. Please Jim, do I cut my losses or hope that gold goes up again? --Ryan
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
Cramer says: “I like gold stocks. I think that 10% of your money should be in gold. Listen to that percentage – It’s 10% … I don’t care that you’re 23 and got your whole life ahead of you. You are going to trim right into the unbelievably good earnings report of Barrick. The stock is up … You are not diversified. You are risking way too much.”
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Dear Mr. Cramer: I have had a very fruitful summer regarding triple-digit gains (thanks in large part to Cramerica). However I have found myself in quite a predicament. In the last six weeks I have watched my entire summer gains be vaporized with the avalanche that is STEC. It could be said that I have dug in my heels, however my thesis has not been proved wrong yet. Given the deplorable market as of late and the unbelievable slide in the stock over the last six weeks, is it time to cut it loose or ride it out? I'm in a tailspin – please help! --Bryan from Florida
Cramer says: “Would you be in a tailspin if only 10% of your portfolio were in STEC? Of course not … STEC is not one of my favorites … make the trade. You don’t need this angst.”
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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5f86aee0859173f7c242653febdfda2d | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/market-tips-oil-is-now-vulnerable.html | Market Tips: Oil Is Now Vulnerable | Market Tips: Oil Is Now Vulnerable
Global stocks were mixed on Thursday, with Asian shares closing lower, while European shares edged up to trade flat on the day, ahead of U.S. third-quarter GDP data. Experts told CNBC that despite an expected rise in activity in the world's largest economy, oil is still susceptible to a drop in price.
Oil is Vulnerable to Selloff
Oil remains vulnerable to a selloff, says Mark Hansen director of trading at CPM Group. He tells CNBC that fundamentals in the markets are lagging.
US Demand Is Recovering
U.S. underlying demand is starting to recover and it is not entirely due to government stimulus, says Milton Ezrati, partner, senior economist and market strategist at Lord Abbett says.
Impact of US GDP on Stocks, Forex
If the upcoming U.S. third-quarter GDP comes in weaker-than-expected, it will be bullish for the dollar and bearish for the risky assets, Olivier Desbarres, director of FX strategy at Credit Suisse explains.
Doubtful About Quality of US GDP Growth
Andrew Freris, senior investment strategist for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management is doubtful about the quality of U.S. third-quarter GDP growth.
US Stocks Have Room to Move Up
The stock market is having a correction but it is fundamentally looking to 2010 and has room to move up, says Milton Ezrati, partner, senior economist and market strategist at Lord Abbett.
Upbeat on Earnings
Earnings next year look good, says Greg Fraser, senior industrials analyst at Fat Prophets.
More Upside Seen for HK & China Markets
Jing Ulrich, MD & chairman of China equities & commodities at JPMorgan sees Hong Kong and China markets heading higher before year-end. She explains her upbeat outlook.
Winterizing Your Portfolio - A CNBC Special Report
What is Causing the HK Market's Decline?
The era of cheap money, easy liquidity and low interest rates is over, which would explain the declines seen in the Hong Kong markets, says Francis Lun, GM at Fulbright Securities.
Upbeat on Hong Kong
The Hong Kong economy could recover faster than many expected, says Sean Darby, head of regional strategy at Nomura International.
The Case for Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has experienced a sharp turnaround in economic fortunes, notes Sean Darby, head of regional strategy at Nomura International. He sheds light on this frontier market.
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72bf77be0ae18061c866ad5e4cf69766 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/metlife-profit-declines-but-matches-forecasts.html | MetLife Profit Declines but Matches Forecasts | MetLife Profit Declines but Matches Forecasts
Metlifeturned in quarterly earnings that declined slightly from last year but matched Wall Street's expectations.
MetLife, the largest insurer in the United States, said it earned 87 cents a share, excluding one-time items, matching the consensus estimate compiled by Thomson Reuters. In the same period last year, MetLife earned 88 cents a share.
Sales for the most recent quarter reached $12.4 billion, edging analysts' forecasts of $12.249 billion but declining from last year's sales of $13.38 billion.
MetLifeAP
Including investment losses, MetLife posted a loss of 79 cents a share. Some of the investment losses were tied to improvement in the company's own credit spreads.
The net loss included $1.4 billion in after-tax net realized investment losses, including about $582 million in derivatives losses tied to improvement in the company's own credit spreads.
Under accounting rules, when its own credit spreads improve, MetLife has to record a decline in the value of its insurance liabilities. This also led to a loss in the second quarter.
"Our businesses are performing well as evidenced by increased sales in a number of product areas in both the U.S. and internationally," said Chief Executive Robert Henrikson, in the earnings report.
U.S. annuity deposits were $4 billion in the quarter, including a 19 percent increase in fixed annuity deposits. MetLife also recorded increased premiums, fees and other revenue in its group life and nonmedical health divisions.
Overall, MetLife's quarterly premiums, fees and other revenue were flat at $8.5 billion.
Book value, a key valuation measure for investors, rose 27 percent from the end of June to $38.95 a share.
The results failed to add to the 7.64 percent leap made by MetLife shares during the regular New York Stock Exchange session. The stock was down more than 2 percent in extended trade. Get late quotes for MetLife here.
The stock has more than tripled since its 52-week low of $11.37 in March when investor fears that life insurers could run short of capital reached a fever pitch.
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05a82d59f17497576f46d6950d690408 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/new-smartphones-from-motorola-htc-and-blackberry.html | New Smartphones From Motorola, HTC and BlackBerry | New Smartphones From Motorola, HTC and BlackBerry
Ever notice how many bits of common wisdom actually contradict each other? I mean, haste makes waste — yet the early bird gets the worm. There are no second acts in American lives — but if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.
The “try, try again” part is definitely what the Motorola , HTC and BlackBerry people are up to. One year ago — one year into the iPhone era — each of these three companies stumbled publicly. The BlackBerry Storm, the first touch-screen phone from Research in Motion , was a buggy, sluggish, counterintuitive mess. The T-Mobile G1, made by HTC, was the first phone that ran Google’s new Android operating system, but the phone itself was chunky and clunky. And Motorola, well, it’s been looking for a hit ever since the Razr phone.
Motorola CLIQ PhonePhoto: Motorola.com
All three are back with much more impressive, much more refined new phones. None is as thin, attractive or flexible as the iPhone, but hey — maybe you don’t want an iPhone. Maybe there’s no AT&T coverage where you live, or you want a swappable battery, or you just hate the thought of running with the hypey herd. In that case, a new BlackBerry Storm 2, HTC Hero or Motorola Cliq might be a perfectly O.K. alternative.
All have cameras, video recording, GPS, Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, five or six hours of talk time and standard headphone jacks. But that doesn’t mean they’re all the same. Here’s how they shake out.
BlackBerry Storm 2
Brothers and sisters, if there was one thing last year’s Storm made clear, it’s this: you don’t rush a product to market just because it’s the holiday season. That’s what R.I.M. did last year, and the Storm was a mess. You’d tap one menu item, and a different one would highlight. You’d flick a list of phone numbers, and it’d stop scrolling the instant your finger stopped (i.e., no momentum). You’d turn the phone 90 degrees, and wait till your next birthday for the image to rotate.
The Storm 2 fixes all of that ($180 from Verizon, with contract, after rebate). Bugs are out, list momentum is in, screen rotation is instantaneous.
The original Storm’s big gimmick was that the entire screen was clickable, like a mouse button — but it wound up requiring too much effort to press the on-screen keys, like a manual typewriter. The Storm 2’s redesigned clickable screen requires far less effort and no longer leaves alarming gaps around its edges; magically enough, it also loses its clickiness when you’re on a call or the phone is off.
The Storm 2 can now exploit the speed of Wi-Fi wireless Internet hot spots, and boasts an impeccable checklist of goodies: autofocus camera, voice dialing, memory-card slot (a 16-gigabyte card is included) and so on. It even works overseas (for added cost, of course), thanks to a slot for a GSM account card (the network type most countries use).
I still don’t get the point of the clicky screen, though. It still has dual feedback mechanisms — colored highlighting on the screen means one thing, a click means something else — that often clash. For example, every time you swipe to scroll a list, your finger highlights the list item it first touched, alarmingly.
Typing is faster on this screen, because you don’t have to fully lift Finger A before pushing down with Finger B (using the Shift key is especially improved for this reason). But it’s still not a true multitouch-screen, and using the Web browser is still slow and fumbly. Isn’t the Web browser the primary point of an all-screen phone? Otherwise, why not get a regular BlackBerry?
The Storm 2 will make many more people happy than the original Storm, but try it in a Verizon store before you buy; the clicky-screen bit isn’t for everyone.
Motorola Cliq
Social networkers, you may have just found your phone.
Motorola’s big-deal new phone ($200 from T-Mobile with contract) is the only one here with a slide-out keyboard. But atop Google’s Android phone software, Motorola has built an ingenious, if initially overwhelming, archipelago of social-networking “widgets” (little floating windows). Each reports the latest from Twitter, Facebook and MySpace, with incoming text messages and e-mail notes — all on the Home screen. In one place, you get a complete picture of your online social network and can post your own updates, too.
Similarly, the address book fills itself with information and headshots from those online worlds, and the awesomely powerful History tab shows you a complete list of recent communications with each person: text messages, calls, e-mail and so on. (It’s therefore simple to contact that person using any of these channels.)
And when someone calls — your brother, say — you see not only his photo, but also his latest status broadcasts from Twitter and Facebook. At the least, this display provides a built-in conversation starter; at best, you have advance warning about your caller’s mood.
There’s good news if you lose your phone, too. Motorola lets you locate the phone on a Web-based map, and even erase its memory by remote control — just like the iPhone, but without the requirement for a $100-a-year MobileMe membership.
If you’re not that into online networking, the Cliq is a wasted opportunity. The slider keyboard makes the whole thing bulky, and the two halves feel as if they don’t fit especially well together. The keyboard is plenty big, but something about the domed square keys makes it harder to type on than it should be.
And then, of course, there’s the reliance on the T-Mobile network, whose tiny call coverage area and even tinier 3G (high-speed) Internet coverage area are recipes for disappointment.
HTC Hero
If R.I.M. got sick of hearing how buggy the first Storm was, then HTC must have gotten sick of hearing how homely and bulky its first Google Android phone was (the T-Mobile G1). The HTC Hero ($180 from Sprint with contract) is thin, sleek and a pleasure to hold. At 4.5 by 2.2 by 0.5 inches, it’s far narrower than the Storm 2 and far thinner than the Motorola Cliq.
The sharp, bright multitouch-screen lets you perform all the usual iPhone gestures for zooming in, panning and zooming out. Navigation is simple, and dedicated Home, Back and Menu buttons are always there to guide you. There’s even a big, illuminated, clickable trackball that lets you drive the whole thing with one hand.
The on-screen keyboard, with pop-up autocomplete suggestions, is as good as on-screen keyboards get. And while the Android store offers only a fraction as many apps as the iPhone store, there are still 10,000 apps to choose from. (They work on the Motorola Cliq, too.)
If Sprint has decent coverage where you live, and if you don’t need physical keys, you may really love this phone. It has a 5-megapixel camera with autofocus and video recording, memory-card jack, Wi-Fi, GPS, Bluetooth, Twitter and Facebook apps, visual voice mail — and Sprint adds free TV and turn-by-turn navigation. The Hero may also be the first smartphone to play Flash videos on the Web.
So there you have it: three phones, three companies, back with a vengeance and a lot more polish than before. None is the iPhone, so you’re missing out on the universe of chargers, cases and accessories, not to mention the convenience of the iTunes music/TV/movie store and the vastness of the App Store.
On the other hand, the iPhone isn’t the only yardstick of success. These phones are growing out of its shadow and learning to cultivate their own personalities. After all, they may say that everybody loves a winner. But they also say, “This above all: to thine own self be true.”
David Pogue is a columnist for the New York Times and contributor to CNBC. He can be emailed at: pogue@nytimes.com.
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f4a5a400daa3d2c499b02b7851fbac12 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/senate-agrees-on-home-tax-credit-but-faces-delay.html | Senate Agrees on Home Tax Credit But Faces Delay | Senate Agrees on Home Tax Credit But Faces Delay
The Senate has agreed on a compromise measure that would extend and expand the popular home buyer's tax credit, "but it is not clear when or how it will be considered," according to a key Capitol Hill source.
That's because its fate is connected to a battle over amendments to a more important bill providing additional unemployment benefits.
"We do expect it to be considered at some point on the debate on unemployment insurance extension," said the source, who would not rule out action today.
The current home buyer tax credit, which is part of the massive stimulus bill signed into law in February, is set to expire Dec. 1, and there have been recent signs that housing activity is slowing, perhaps partly because potential buyers are uncertain they can close a deal in time to qualify for the $8,000 credit.
The home buyer credit is one of several amendments likely to be attached to a bill that would extend jobless benefits for all workers by 14 weeks with additional coverage for those living in states with unemployment rates over 8.5 percent. (Congress passed a similar measure earlier this year.)
Slideshow: Top Jobless States
The compromise homebuyer measure extends the tax credit to non first-time buyers and also raises current income ceilings. People who have lived in a primary residence for five consecutive years would be eligible for a $6,500 credit when purchasing a new property.
Such repeat buyers were barred from the original plan, prompting some to say that the credit was only helping lower-income buyers and thus creating a limited housing recovery. A Nixon-era program, for instance, applied to all buyers and owner-occupied residential properties and is thought to have helped new construction along with the existing home market.
Sens. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who chairs the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, and Johnny Isakson (R. Ga.), who worked in the real estate industry for three decades, have been pushing for an expansion of the program for months.
The compromise version is said to represent the middle ground between the Dodd-Isakson proposal and a narrower one (limiting eligibility to first-time buyers) by Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, which leads the nation in foreclosures, and Sen., Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who heads the senate Finance committee.
The tax credit has been a major factor in a home sales bump that started in the spring. A national realtors group has forecast the credit would lead to about a 350,000 sales that would not have ordinarily taken place. About 2 million people were expected to take advantage of the program.
Mortgage rates remain near historic lows and housing affordability is the best in years, as sellers drop prices to attract buyers.
Slideshow: Highest Foreclosure States
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df50cb5214abef581a7a15675cf10817 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/sp-500-earnings-leaderboard-biggest-surprises-season-to-date.html | S&P 500 Earnings Leaderboard: Biggest Surprises Season to Date | S&P 500 Earnings Leaderboard: Biggest Surprises Season to Date
Yesterday we passed the earnings season midpoint and now ~60% of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings.
Here's how things stand so far:
Companies Exceeding EPS Estimates: 80%Companies Matching EPS Estimates: 6%Companies Falling Below EPS Estimates: 14%
At the same point last quarter, 14% of the companies reporting had missed EPS estimates and 76% had beaten estimates.
Dow component, Caterpillar has had the biggest percent surprise to the upside followed by Capital One and Sallie Mae . In absolute dollars, financials sit atop the leaderboard. After Citigroup's surprise of over $1.3 billion, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo follow with ~$1.2 billion and ~$900 million surprises.
On the downside, Massey Energy overtook Pittsburgh based Allegheny Technologies to lead the losers, reporting a -122% miss. In absolute dollars, Bank of America leads with its $433 million negative surprise.
Many companies have improved their earnings by cutting costs. Investors are looking for topline growth as a sign that the economy has indeed turned the corner. Continue on to the next page to see the biggest revenue surprises to date as well.
Revenues to date for the S&P 500
Companies Exceeding Revenue Estimates: 61%Companies Matching Revenue Estimates: 0%Companies Falling Below Revenue Estimates: 39%
Revenues are starting to look better this quarter. At the same point last quarter, 47% of the companies reporting had missed EPS estimates and 53% had beaten estimates.
In percentage terms, Morgan Stanley leads in biggest revenue surprises. ConocoPhillips's $5.9 billion surprise is the biggest to date in terms of dollars.
On the downside, Utilities lead the biggest percentage surprises with Public Services Enterprise Group taking the top spot. CNBC parent, General Electric leads in dollar terms missing estimates by $1.7 B.
Data Source:Thomson Reuters
Send comments to bythenumbers@cnbc.com
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7b89fec7473f046c7d63f47a5ebc898e | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/tired-of-making-bad-decisions-think-twice.html | Tired of Making Bad Decisions? 'Think Twice' | Tired of Making Bad Decisions? 'Think Twice'
Despite our best intentions, we all make some really bad decisions; ordering up that extra large chili cheese fries, not refinancing when the rates were really, really low, telling Americans it was their patriotic duty to go on a spending spree, letting everyone believe the American Dream of owning a house was a God-given right, and – ok, ok I’ll stop, you get the point.
We’re human – and no matter how many degrees we have or how many years we have on the job, we make some pretty bone-headed – and COSTLY decisions.
In the new book, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition author Michael Mauboussin shows us how the actual process for making good decisions – especially when the stakes are high – actually conflicts with how our minds naturally work, but you can now teach yourself how to make better decisions in life and in making investment ideas.
Guest Author Blog
Guest Author Blog: What Can We Learn from Big Brown’s Big Bust? by Michael Mauboussin
June 7, 2008 was a steamy day in New York, but that didn’t stop fans from stuffing the seats at Belmont Park to see Big Brown’s bid for horseracing’s pinnacle, the Triple Crown. The undefeated colt had been impressive. He won the first leg of the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby, by 4 ¾ lengths and cruised to a 5 ¼-length win in the second leg, the Preakness.
Oozing with confidence, Big Brown’s trainer, Rick Dutrow, suggested that it was a “foregone conclusion” that his horse would take the prize. Dutrow was emboldened by the horse’s performance, demeanor, and even the good “karma” in the barn. Despite the fact that no horse had won the Triple Crown in over 30 years, the handicappers shared Dutrow’s enthusiasm, putting 3-to-10 odds—almost a 77 percent probability—on his winning.
The fans came out to see Big Brown make history. And make history he did—it just wasn’t what everyone expected. Big Brown was the first Triple Crown contender to finish dead last.
The story of Big Brown is a good example of a common mistake in decision making: psychologists call it using the “inside” instead of the “outside” view.
The inside view considers a problem by focusing on the specific task and by using information that is close at hand. It’s the natural way our minds work. The outside view, by contrast, asks if there are similar situations that can provide a statistical basis for making a decision. The outside view wants to know if others have faced comparable problems, and if so, what happened. It’s an unnatural way to think because it forces people to set aside the information they have gathered.
Dutrow and others were bullish on Big Brown given what they had seen. But the outside view demands to know what happened to horses that had been in Big Brown’s position previously. It turns out that 11 of the 29 had succeeded in their Triple Crown bid in the prior 130 years, about a 40 percent success rate. But scratching the surface of the data revealed an important dichotomy. Before 1950, 8 of the 9 horses that had tried to win the Triple Crown did so. But since 1950, only 3 of 20 succeeded, a measly 15 percent success rate. Further, when compared to the other six recent Triple Crown aspirants, Big Brown was by far the slowest. A careful review of the outside view suggested that Big Brown’s odds were a lot longer than what the tote board suggested. A favorite to win the race? Yes. A better than three-in-four chance? Bad bet.
Markets are another realm where people rely too much on the inside view to anticipate the future. Let’s be clear: no one knows what the future holds. The evidence shows that experts are notoriously poor at forecasting the market or the economy. But the outside view can offer a perspective that runs counter to the prevailing wisdom.
Michael J. Mauboussin's "Think Twice"
Let’s look at three widely held views—inside views—where the outside view offers a different take.
The new normal suggests moderate GDP growth. There are a lot of reasons to believe that the recovery from the recent recession will be more muted than past recoveries, including a slack labor market, a retrenching U.S. consumer, and cautious corporate spending. This is the inside view. The outside view, on the other hand, suggests that the magnitude of the recovery is a function of the severity of the retrenchment. Michael Darda, an economist at MKM Partners, writes, “[T]he most important determinant of the strength of an economic recovery is the depth of the downturn that preceded it. There are no exceptions to this rule, including the 1929-39 period.” There is currently a yawning difference between consensus GDP forecasts for 2010 of about 2.5 percent and the 8 percent-plus growth that past recoveries suggest. Time will tell.
A retrenching U.S. consumer portends poor market returns.This one seems obvious. The U.S. consumer is over 70 percent of GDP, having spent excessively during the last expansion by piling on debt. As the U.S. consumer goes through a belt-tightening phase and ends up representing less of GDP, the market will struggle. The outside view offers a slightly more sanguine picture. There have been eight periods since the 1930s when the consumer share of GDP declined, and during five of those episodes (1932-37, 1949-51, 1958-60, 1960-67, 1982-84) the Dow Jones Industrial Average went up. Since market prices are based on expectations, the operative question is not where consumer spending will go, but where spending will go relative to what’s reflected in share prices.
Stocks for the long run no longer holds. Coming off a difficult decade for the returns of the S&P 500, pundits have cooled their outlook for future returns. This is consistent with the inside view: people have a strong tendency to extrapolate either good or bad performance into the future. For example, Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University, maintains a Stock Market Crash Confidence Index, which is the percentage of respondents who believe the probability of a crash is low. So the higher the index, the lower the perceived probability of a crash. Since November 2007, the S&P 500 has declined by over 30 percent, while the Crash Index is down 24 percent. In other words, after the market has lost about one-third of its value, institutional investors deem the probability of a crash to be higher than before. The outside view provides more comfort. Following poor 10-year returns (besides the current period, other occasions were 1920, 1974, and 1978) the market has delivered above-average real returns in the subsequent decade.
Forecasting is an inherently difficult task.
When you consider the future, keep in mind the story of Big Brown. While the inside view will sound and feel persuasive, the outside view generally provides crucial perspective. Today, the inside view is painting a very cautious picture. Keep in mind a quote attributed to Arthur Pigou, the economist: “The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to the error of pessimism. The new error is born not an infant, but a giant.”
______________________________
Michael J. Mauboussin
Michael J. Mauboussin is chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management and is on the adjunct faculty at Columbia Business School.
His latest book, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, was recently released by Harvard Business Press.
You can read more at www.michaelmauboussin.com.
_______________________Email your book ideas to me at bullishonbooks@cnbc.com — And follow me on Twitter
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794036dd85c74fb57748ddf2359c2c2c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/wall-street-bullish-on-2009-bonuses-survey.html | Wall Street Bullish on 2009 Bonuses: Survey | Wall Street Bullish on 2009 Bonuses: Survey
The Obama administration sent a shiver up and down Wall Street by cracking down on executive compensation at bailed-out firms, but recent data from eFinancialCareers.com show financial professionals are still bullish on 2009 bonuses.
According to the survey, 83 percent of Wall Street professionals expect to receive bonuses this year, and one-third expect to receive even bigger bonuses than they did in 2008."You can't change 200 years of history overnight," said John Benson, founder and CEO of eFinancialCareers.com. "...Changing the pay structure is going to be an iterative process, because there are always unintended consequences to every change." Wall Street professionals indicated three main reasons for expecting increased payouts this year: a third said it was primarily because of very low bonuses last year, a quarter attributed it to their personal performance and a quarter said it was due to their firm's overall performance.
Slideshow: Biggest Executive Bonuses of the Decade
"The fundamental issue that seems to still be lost in the furor is that bonuses are not payments on top of great salaries," added Benson. "For many Wall Street professionals, bonuses are the majority of their total compensation and should be viewed more akin to a sales commission." Just over half of the 1,074 financial services professionals who responded to the survey, which was administered at the end of September, noted their firms have revised bonus policies, but most respondents said their attitudes toward risk haven't changed.
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bb14be2129bd0f5401f1682116ab6cf9 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/web-extra-big-health-care-developments.html | You’ve heard it before, but a health care bill looks likely to pass the House that would create a public option and ultimately cover at least 95% of the nation.Speaking on the steps of the Capitol, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress was at a "historic moment" with lawmakers "on the cusp of delivering on the promise of making affordable, quality health insurance available to every American."What does this mean for the health care trade?
This content is only available online - you won't find these trades on TV.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Web Extra
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your message to .Trader disclosure: On October 29th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders; Seymour Owns (AAPL), (AA), (BAC), (BX), (EEM), (MYL), (INTC), (MSFT), (VALE); Seymour Is Short (FXI); Grasso Owns (AAPL), (ABK), (BA), (C), (COST), (PFE), (WMT), (FAZ); Terranova Owns (IBM), (QCOM), (GS); Finerman Owns (BAC), (PDE), (TGT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Owns (PDE), (FLS), (RIG), (TBT), (YUM); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Preferred; Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (USO), (UNG), (TLT); Jon Najarian Owns (INTC) Calls, Jon Najarian Owns (AMD) Calls For Steve GrassoStuart Frankel Owns (MSFT)Stuart Frankel Owns (PFE)Stuart Franked Owns (SDS)
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1827adecdc9d07f5cdb08a8444c91493 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/29/why-the-markets-up-but-mercks-down.html | Why The Market's Up, But Merck's Down | Why The Market's Up, But Merck's Down
On a day when the market is in full-tilt rally mode on the GDP number, shares of Dow component Merck and the company it's buying, Schering-Plough , are sliding. So, what gives?
Well, Bernstein analyst Dr. Tim Anderson put out a MRK-SGP research note this morning titled, "Caveat Emptor," and he did a voicemail blast to clients this morning saying he was "sounding the alarm bells once again."
He's writing and talking about the upcoming presentation of data from a study called "Arbiter 6" comparing MRK and SGP's cholesterol-fighter Zetia to Niaspan from Abbott Labs . Zetia is also used to make Vytorin along with the statin Zocor. They're big-selling drugs. Researchers will unveil the study results in a so-called "late-breaking clinical trial" session at the American Heart Association's annual meeting in Orlando on Monday, November 16th, at 10:45 a.m. ET. A "late breaker" is prominent, prestigious status that scientific and medical meetings typically grant to big, important studies. They're often done in the biggest convention hall before the largest audience.
Dr. Anderson also says the study will be published simultaneously in a major medical journal, most likely the "New England Journal of Medicine," along with an editorial or two. And he says one of the opinion pieces will be "pretty scathing by a well-known critic." Any guesses? Hmm, lemme think.
Dr. Anderson doesn't think there's anything, as he put it, "truly wrong" with Zetia or Vytorin, but for whatever reason he believes the drugs are "being attacked by some pretty fierce critics." Long-term he still likes Merck together with Schering, but in the near-term he says, "Buyer beware."
On Merck's most recent conference call company officials were already revving up the spin machine. They promised that they will be at AHA in full force messaging docs, so-called key opinion leaders and, of course, the media. I wonder if they'll send the big guns to talk to us.
See The World, Save On Health CareBiotech Firm, Execs Charged With Medical Device Fraud
Disclosures: Someone who lives with one of the Bernstein pharma researchers owns Merck stock. And a part of Bernstein owns at least one percent of MRK and SGP shares.
Questions? Comments? Pharma@cnbc.com and follow me on Twitter at mhuckman
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ef45e16c98c07c377459859d020c3b2e | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/a-tale-of-two-smart-phone-makers.html | A Tale of Two Smart Phone Makers | A Tale of Two Smart Phone Makers
A very interesting report from RBC's wireless analyst this morning Mike Abramsky, and the power of potential at Apple and Palm.
First Apple where the skies indeed seem the limit for opportunity here. Abramsky and team met with top execs at Apple and came away smitten. And for good reason: it seems Wall Street is coming around to the fundamentals that many of us have been preaching. In all fairness, Abramsky had been an Apple naysayer but came around, and big. And his optimism is only reiterated this morning.
The meeting was with Eddy Cue, VP iTunes and Internet Services; David Moody, VP of Worldwide Mac Marketing; and Peter Oppenheimer, CFO. And the takeaways were as simple as they were captivating: "The discussions reaffirmed our Outperform thesis:? iPhone Channel Leverage Remains High. Despite intensifying competition (Android, RIM, etc.) Apple continues to enjoy strong global carrier interest in iPhone..."
He adds that iPhone's secret weapons include: "Vertical integration (hardware/software) and iTunes ecosystem remain a significant competitive advantage over contenders, with evolving innovations pending, applications leadership and content ecosystem."
And most telling, while we keep focusing on nascent competition from the likes of the Palm Pre and all those new Android handsets, Abramsky rightfully boils that down to market fragmentation.
"Multiple configurations" is viewed as a disadvantage to application developers, vs. Apple's single-platform model," he writes. Apple's App Store continues to be the key differentiator with 90,000 titles versus the Android's 12,000.
On the operating system side, Abramsky says, "Windows 7? Bring It." The upgrade cycle is another opportunity to get consumers and enterprise customers in a shopping mode again, and if they're gonna crack open the checkbook, why not spend the cash on a Mac? Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer recently told me that Apple only controls a tiny percentage of the market, and he practically laughed it off. To me, such a small market share today represents huge, untapped opportunity, and while Microsoft tries dutifully to hold its market with exceptionally limited, upside potential, Apple's opportunities by comparison are almost endless.
But in a separate report released simultaneously to Apple's, Abramsky focuses on Palm and tries to sing the same optimistic tune. True, Palm has next to no market share in smart phones, and its opportunities should also seem endless. Trouble for Palm is that it's still largely a one-trick pony, though Pixi might have some potential. But unlike Apple's long track record of execution, and a deep reservoir of cash, and buzz, and momentum, Palm starts, sputters, stops, sputters, restarts, and tries to move forward.
Abramsky warns, ??"Don't underestimate Palm????," after meeting with Doug Jeffries, CFO; Jeff Devine, SVP Operations; Phil McClendon, Pixi Product Manager; Mitch Allen, Software CTO; and Dave Vadasz, VP Corporate Development.
"Palm continues to aggressively innovate (beyond investor visibility, in our view), has a stronger than appreciated product pipeline, and is moving to advance WebOS's competitive advantages," he says. Convincing Wall Street is one thing, but getting shoppers to buy the Pre and Pixi over the Blackberry and iPhone is certainly another.
Abramsky and I agree on one thing: the smart phone world is the wild west of tech right now. It's not a question of success for the key competitors; it's a question of degrees of success. And while Palm might be satisfied with market place scraps, the big dogs are chewing through the bones. That's Apple, and Research in Motion , and maybe even Motorola in the Android space, though Google might be the better bet here on that front. Palm has opportunity and potential, but it pales in comparison to Apple's.
And that's because Apple has something none of the other smart phone makers do, namely everything else: Macs, iPods, an OS for computers and phones, a robust retailing strategy, iTunes, the App Store, the intangible of market mojo, and the executive talent to pull it off. Watching Apple at this stage is like watching "Sunday Night Football." It's a total blow-out late in the fourth quarter and yet the commentators try to come up with scoring possibilities and formulas to make the game a little more interesting, to hold the viewer, even though everybody really knows the game is over and who won.
In tech, for investors, it's Apple versus everybody else. But yeah, we'll still try to make it interesting.
Slideshow: Evolution of Wireless Communication
Questions? Comments? TechCheck@cnbc.com
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6edff103b1c6ffa3c3e1fcb82ed0a5b6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/correction-will-end-in-a-month-market-pro.html | Correction Will End in a Month: Market Pro | Correction Will End in a Month: Market Pro
Stocks enjoyed a big gain on Thursday on a stronger-than-expected GDP report. But will it be enough to kick-start another sustained rally? Andrew Kanaly, chairman of Kanaly Trust Company and Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital discussed their outlooks.
“[By] GDP data alone, absolutely not,” Schatz told CNBC. “We all know [the GDP gain] was baked in with free money and government money and not 'real money.'”
Schatz said the markets are in the middle of a correction, which will wrap up during Thanksgiving or in early December before riding another rally into next year.
“But it’s not based on GDP,” he said. “[The correction] will be the largest decline since the bull run began in March—somewhere between 7 to 17 percent total from the peak, but then we’re going to see new highs again during the first quarter of 2010.”
VIDEO0:0000:00GDP = Sustained Stock Rally?
Schatz said he doesn’t see the Federal Reserve making any movements in the foreseeable future.
“Very slowly, they’re going to start putting the hints out—the economy’s getting better—which I don’t believe, but that will add strength to the dollar,” he said.
But, Schatz added, “If the Fed is going to keep the pedal down and flooding the system with cash, stocks are going to go up—the Dow is going to go far above 10,500—11,000 in the first and second quarters next year.”
In the meantime, Kanaly told investors that the economy’s “seen the best of the GDP news for a while.”
Winterizing Your Portfolio - A CNBC Special Report
“It looks like everything’s going to slow down from this furious pace we saw in the third quarter—the dollar’s strong and everything else is weak—I’m not sure your stock market is going to like that very much,” he said.
Kanaly said he is keeping his bond holdings “very short-term.”
“We have been buyers of gold, but now we’re concerned that it’s gone too far too fast because it’s not inflation-driven, it’s a currency play. At some point, that’s going to go away,” he said.
Kanaly Likes:
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S&P Technology
S&P Materials
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______________________________ Disclosures:
No immediate information was available for Kanaly or Schatz.
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Disclaimer
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0846ab4b8ca1bad1c59a855de30a6bdb | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/cramer-4-stocks-to-fight-fridays-losses.html | Investors who didn’t take profits on Thursday, Cramer said during Stop Trading!, may be gnashing their teeth on Friday. The Dow gained 200 points during yesterday’s trading session only to give back even more today – 233 points with an hour before the closing bell.
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
The market leaders of tech, the banks and oils seem to have stumbled a bit, Cramer said, so it’s time to reassess our strategies. The stocks from these sectors that were working before aren’t working now. Except for a few, that is, namely Apple , Google , BP , JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs .
VIDEO0:0000:00Stop Trading, Listen to Cramer!
“It’s time to get more conservative,” Cramer said, declaring again that we’ve seen the market’s highs for the year and telling investors to take profits where they can.
He reiterated his calls on the four defensive plays he recommended during Thursday’s Mad Money: Procter & Gamble , General Mills , WellPoint and McDonald’s . He expects money to flow out of cyclical stocks like Freeport-McMoRan and into these so-called safety names.
While Cramer urged caution, he said he thinks the market’s pullback will be constrained by a 7% decline. He saw no reason for investors to cash out completely.
“It’s just not a great time, but that doesn’t mean we have to go in a fallout shelter,” Cramer said. “It’s just, we have to get some umbrellas.”
Cramer's charitable trust owns BP, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Procter & Gamble.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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1b48ef2354c92a74f6d2665edb154c3c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/cramer-talks-inflation-housing-and-more.html | It wouldn’t be a Back to School Tour stop if Cramer didn’t go one-on-one with students. In fact, he said Friday, it’s “my favorite part of the show.”
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
Cramer took questions about inflation, housing, the decline of American power, Freeport-McMoRan and more. Watch the video for his answers.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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6492b5eff578f9eb648a8cefe8ae1974 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/harnessing-the-web-for-halloween.html | Harnessing the Web for Halloween | Harnessing the Web for Halloween
Jack O' LanternPhoto: Carole Pasquier
When I was a kid, Halloween entailed lots of strategizing about a trick-or-treating route, trying to maximize our candy take and houses with over-the-top decorations. Houses which gave away full-sized candy got extra consideration, and the odd "haunted house" was always a must-hit.
But now the web has transformed that whole process.
Real estate Web site Zillow hosts a "Trick-or-Treat Housing Index," that I think is absolutely brilliant. Zillow only has tackled the top five neighborhoods in Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago and Boston, but it provides a great framework for parents (and kids) to plan their evening.
Zillow calculates the best neighborhoods for Trick-or-Treating by considering the value of homes, population density, "Walk Score" (how walkable the neighborhood is), and local crime data. Zillow points out that wealthy neighborhoods aren't necessarily the Holy Grail for harvesting giant candy bars, as kids might spend their time hiking between estates.
For the top neighborhoods in my home town, Los Angeles, click here.
Zillow also directs you to local haunted houses — Click here to check out the ones in Hollywood.
And if you're hunkering down at home with some horror movies, don't bother driving to Blockbuster , look online. Chances are if you can't find something suitably scary on TV, you'll be able to stream horror flicks them to your TV through on-demand, Netflix or Blockbuster On Demand to your TiVo or the like: (See my post on the crowded premium movie market) Horrorfind.com calls itself the ultimate horror Halloween search engine.
And from the masters:
Here are Martin Scorsese's 11 favorite Horror movies.
Wes Craven tells EW the 10 films that scared him the most.
Top 10 Halloween Costumes 2009Is Your Boss a Witch or the Grim Reaper?
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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df39c7a8a8f03e61624b524371e9605f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/health-care-businesses-at-risk-in-house-overhaul.html | Health Care Businesses at Risk in House Overhaul | Health Care Businesses at Risk in House Overhaul
The health care overhaul bill produced by House Democrats would impose an array of new taxes, fees and government mandates on major players in the health industry, including insurers, doctors and drugs and medical devices makers.
In most cases, the pain has been meted out with an eye toward raising the money needed to finance President Barack Obama's plan for reshaping the health system but also with careful regard for gaining the votes that will be needed to pass a final bill.
Democrats hope to vote next week on the measure, which would extend health coverage to tens of millions of Americans who don't have it, impose sweeping new restrictions on private insurers and create a government-run insurance plan to compete with them.
Among the industries targeted in the bill are medical device makers — one of the few that failed to cut an early behind-the-scenes deal with Obama and Democrats to help pay for an overhaul.
The House added $20 billion in taxes on sales of medical devices like artificial hips and heart stents to the legislation Democratic leaders unveiled Thursday. That's more than the industry wants to pay, but it's a substantial reprieve from an earlier plan in the Senate to slap a $40 billion fee on medical device makers.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has agreed to slash the fee, in part to win cooperation from fence-sitting Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
Bayh, whose state is home to prominent medical device makers, including Zimmer Holdings, Biomet and DePuy Orthopaedics, is one of a handful of wavering Democrats whose support will be vital to getting to the 60 Senate votes necessary to advance the health overhaul.
That means he and other holdouts have disproportionate power to cut deals on behalf of favored industries that are bracing for major costs under the new system.
Stephen J. Ubl, the president of AdvaMed, the trade group representing large medical device makers, said the group appreciates House leaders' decision to include the smaller version of the tax and is "grateful for the efforts" of Bayh and others to do the same in the Senate.
Health Care Reform
In a statement, Ubl seemed to indicate that his group was willing to go along if Congress helped cushion the blow.
"We look forward to working with Congress and the administration on critically important implementation issues," Ubl said, including seeking AdvaMed priorities such as delaying the tax until 2013 — which the House measure does — tying it to specific products, exempting small companies with less than $100 million in annual revenue and making it deductible.
The measure is less kind to drug makers, an industry that did strike a deal with Obama and key senators to hold down its costs.
Pharmaceutical companies agreed to cough up $80 billion in the health overhaul.
While precise figures were not immediately available, it appeared the House legislation would target the industry for much more. And it would give the government power to negotiate drug prices on behalf of Medicare beneficiaries.
Ken Johnson of the trade group the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America said lawmakers were being "unrealistic in their expectations of what our industry can contribute to health care reform without triggering catastrophic job losses and driving innovation and business overseas."
The $80 billion figure "is a huge amount of money — it's not loose change we found sitting around in the sofa," said Johnson, who added that the drug makers would be busy in the coming days contacting House and Senate leaders "trying to educate them" on how damaging further cuts would be.
On the other hand, the industry managed to come away with a provision worth billions: 12 years of market protection for high-tech drugs to combat cancer, Parkinson's and other deadly diseases.
Health insurers, who would gain tens of millions of new customers under the health plan, nonetheless would be ensnared by some potentially costly new measures, including eliminating their long-standing antitrust exemption.
They voiced particular concern about Democrats' inclusion of the government-run insurance plan.
Karen Ignani, the chief of the insurers' main trade group, America's Health Insurance Plans, said the so-called public option would "bankrupt hospitals, dismantle employer coverage, exacerbate cost-shifting from Medicare and Medicaid, and ultimately increase the federal deficit."
She said the result would be that many people, including seniors, would lose coverage or face higher costs.
The measure also drops a reprieve for doctors from scheduled pay cuts for treating Medicare patients, which House leaders now plan to pursue separately from the broader health bill.
The Senate last week turned back an attempt to pass the pay-raise on its own at a cost of $247 billion over the next decade — sidetracking what the American Medical Association has made a key priority in the health overhaul negotiations.
But doctors, hospitals and other providers won a key concession that would let them negotiate rates with the Health and Human Services Department for services provided in the government insurance plan.
Key Democratic moderates whose votes were needed to pass the plan insisted on that approach, at the urging of hospitals in their districts. Liberals wanted rates to be dictated by the government, which would have been less costly.
Chip Kahn, the president of the Federation of American Hospitals, cheered the bill, saying it moves toward "a market-based health system."
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adef980936201bc902d5e2632c1a44d9 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/hints-of-missed-chance-to-pursue-galleon-case.html | Hints of Missed Chance to Pursue Galleon Case | Hints of Missed Chance to Pursue Galleon Case
The first tip from inside Intel reached Raj Rajaratnam more than a decade ago — from the same source who has now turned against him in the biggest insider-trading case in a generation.
As far back as 1998, before he rose to prominence in the rarefied world of hedge funds, Mr. Rajaratnam was passed confidential information from an Intel employee who, the authorities now say, went on to play a crucial role in a vast insider-trading scheme involving some of the nation’s largest technology companies. That source, Roomy Khan, is a central government witness in the case against Mr. Rajaratnam, who maintains his innocence.
But years before the current case erupted, Ms. Khan was caught passing information to a representative of the Galleon hedge fund, who, according to a person with knowledge of the case, was Mr. Rajaratnam. Ms. Khan was prosecuted in federal court in 2000, but the authorities did not pursue Mr. Rajaratnam or his firm, Galleon, in connection with that case.
On the surface, it would seem to be another example of a missed opportunity by authorities to break up a nascent insider trading ring. Jack Gillund, a spokesman for the United States attorney’s office in San Francisco, declined to answer questions about why the Galleon representative’s identity has remained a secret or if prosecutors ever considered a case against Galleon or its employees in the matter. A spokesman for the Securities and Exchange Commission declined to answer the same questions.
A spokeswoman for the United States attorney’s office in the Southern District of New York, which is handling the prosecution of Mr. Rajaratnam, also declined to comment.
A spokesman for Mr. Rajaratnam declined to comment, as did an Intel spokesman. Neither Mr. Rajaratnam nor anyone else at Galleon was contacted by the authorities regarding the events in 1998, according to a person briefed on the matter. Ms. Khan’s lawyer has yet to be identified.
Mr. Rajaratnam has been charged with running the insider trading scheme involving Galleon. He and five others are accused by the Justice Department and the S.E.C. of relying on a vast network of company insiders and consultants to make more than $20 million in profit from 2006 to 2009. In the government’s recently filed insider trading charges against Mr. Rajaratnam, prosecutors identify Ms. Khan as Tipper A and say they had exchanged insider information on Google, Polycom and Hilton.
Mr. Rajaratnam’s lawyer has said his client is innocent. He is free on $100 million bail, though his lawyers moved on Thursday to reduce that amount to $25 million.
Prosecutors have established that Ms. Khan and Mr. Rajaratnam most likely met in 1996 when Ms. Khan worked at Intel as a product marketing engineer. Mr. Rajaratnam followed Intel as a securities analyst for Needham & Company, an investment bank.
Their relationship appears to have progressed quickly, because by early 1998, Ms. Khan started faxing information about Intel’s chip sales to Mr. Rajaratnam, according to court documents and the person with knowledge of the case who has requested anonymity because court documents tied to the case remain sealed under court order.
Only a two-page summary of that 2000 case, filed in United States District Court in Northern California, is public. In it, prosecutors describe a “Galleon representative” who asked Ms. Khan to send the information about Intel. Two people with knowledge of the case say extensive surveillance was undertaken linking the two individuals.
Ms. Khan resigned from Intel before she was charged. She then went to work for Mr. Rajaratnam at Galleon in 1999, the hedge fund he created after leaving Needham. Ms. Khan was fired from Galleon the next year for violating company policy by trading options in her own account on the side, according to a person briefed on the matter, adding that she had boasted of making millions through the trades.
It was not until 2001 that Ms. Khan pleaded guilty to wire fraud. A year later, she received a sentence of six months of home detention in Atherton, Calif., and a $150,000 charge covering fines and restitution, the Federal Bureau of Investigation has confirmed.
Around 2005, Ms. Khan again asked Mr. Rajaratnam for a position at Galleon, according to the recent court filings, as she faced financial problems. While she did not secure that job at Galleon, Ms. Khan continued to trade insider information with Mr. Rajaratnam, according to federal prosecutors.
Press representatives for federal prosecutors say details of the case remain sealed because the government lawyer handling the case did not ask the court to unseal the records before he left his job. They said they did not intend to ask for the case to be unsealed. (In the documents, Ms. Khan’s named is misspelled Kahn and the documents were misfiled under that name. )
There are reasons Mr. Rajaratnam would remain unidentified in the court documents. “The two dominant explanations for not naming the individual at Galleon would be either that the individual cooperated with the government or that the investigation is continuing,” said Joseph A. Grundfest, the co-director of the Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University.
Statute-of-limitations provisions prevent prosecutors from charging the parties with a substantive insider trading violation for the 2000 case as part of the current case. However, evidence from cases older than five years may be used if prosecutors can establish that the behavior was part of a continuing conspiracy, according to Christopher P. Conniff, a partner in Ropes & Gray’s government enforcement group.
Ms. Khan’s central role in a pair of insider trading cases matches with a career that appeared anything but typical. While her roots trace back to New Delhi, Ms. Khan lived in Silicon Valley for decades with her husband, Sakhawat Khan, a chip engineer who profited from the sale of at least two start-ups.
When she was about 35, Ms. Khan obtained a master’s degree in business administration from the University of California, Berkeley. According to friends, acquaintances and family, Ms. Khan’s true passion lay with following the financial markets and trading stocks. When she left Galleon, Ms. Khan set up her own stock trading operation inside the family’s home in Atherton, one of the most exclusive Silicon Valley neighborhoods.
Ms. Khan spoke openly about her stock-picking skills and the fact that she supported the family by managing their money, said a Silicon Valley technology executive who was friendly with the couple and a relative. Mr. Khan was not working during this time and “joked about being the bum in the family,” the friend said. Ms. Khan would wake up early each morning and go to the pool house, which she had converted into her home office, log on to her computer and spend the day trading.
“She was very open about managing their own money from the house,” the friend said. “One assumed she had certain skills she had learned earlier, and was applying them.”
The Khans would often throw parties at their estate and have been described by friends and acquaintances as a charming pair.
But by 2005, the couple’s financial situation seems to have worsened as they struggled to pay debts.
Friends were puzzled when the Khans seemed to fall off the radar socially. The couple sold their house in Atherton this year and moved to Florida, said a relative.
Claire Cain Miller contributed reporting.
Slideshow: A Rogues Gallery of Financial Crime
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16739356bec396cbb21b72893d44b21a | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/homebuyers-reluctant-to-become-obamas-neighbor.html | Homebuyers Reluctant To Become Obama's Neighbor | Homebuyers Reluctant To Become Obama's Neighbor
At first, it sounded like a hot real estate listing: the house right next door to President Obama's Chicago home in the city's Hyde Park neighborhood.
Photo By: Elizabeth Cromwell
But two months after going on sale, there has been no sale.
The property is still on the market and media reports from Chicago cite a number of reasons, including an inflated price, need for upgrades, and last but not least, Secret Service protection that would require the screening of visitors.
Here's a detailed look at the home from a CNBC.com slideshow posted when the property was first listed in September.
Slideshow: Want To Become Obama's Neighbor? Here's How
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9eb466a0c48017dc8859403c6c438c63 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/is-your-boss-a-witch-or-the-grim-reaper.html | Is Your Boss a Witch or the Grim Reaper? | Is Your Boss a Witch or the Grim Reaper?
DraculaAP
If you think your boss is a monster—or a nasty witch—you’re not alone.
Job Web site CareerBuilder.com surveyed 4,000 workers for their Halloween survey and found that 18 percent of workers described their workplace as scary and 7 percent said their boss was the scariest part of their job.
When asked to describe which Halloween characters their boss most resembled, 11 percent said he was most like the Wolf Man—fine one minute, howling the next.
Others found their boss to be more like the Invisible Man, cause he’s no where to be found in the office.
Six percent said their boss resembled Dracula, not because of the blood sucking fangs, but because he sucks the life out of his employees.
But it’s not all bad, the majority of workers (20 percent) said their boss was most like Glenda the Good Witch, because she’s liked and respected by all. And just 5 percent said their boss was more like the Wicked Witch of the West, because they're always sending out their minions to do the dirty work.
So we’re asking CNBC.com readers, how would you describe your boss?
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fdcdb5298c57a9c198c01973a5a79a86 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/lightning-round-jpmorgan-chase-pepsi-kinder-morgan-energy-and-more.html | The Williams Cos. : Go instead with Kinder Morgan Energy Partners for its yield or Devon Energy for its growth, Cramer said.
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
Dr Pepper Snapple Group : Cramer is bullish on DPS as a growth play after its “monster good quarter,” he said. He recommended Pepsico for more conservative investors.
VIDEO0:0000:00Lightning Round
Windstream : Cramer likes WIN and its 10.4% dividend yield.
Clean Energy Fuels : Cramer recommended CLNE as a speculation play on natural gas.
JPMorgan Chase : JPM is “the best-run American bank,” Cramer said, adding that the stock’s a buy at its present level of $41.
Cramer's charitable trust owns JPMorgan Chase and Pepsico.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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0b41711c8f91fae7f1ed846ffe89dafa | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/London-Fashion-Week.html | London Fashion Week | London Fashion Week
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
London celebrated 25 years of British fashion at the British Fashion Council's London Fashion week. Held at the iconic Somerset House in London's West End, the catwalk shows and exhibitions highlighted the UK's place in the global fashion landscape along with featuring new talent.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Eley Kishimoto
Designers Eley and Wakako Kishimoto teamed up in London. Eley describes their pieces as: "Print, fashion, design and the universe."
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
The Grown-Up Hippy?
The crowd at the show had a mixture of fashion professionals and families looking for designers that could give a nod to their counterculture youth.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Last-Minute Practice
Set-up time for one of the anticipated collection debuts allows photographers to find the perfect light and models to work on the strut one last time before showtime.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Showcase PavillionBackstage the champagne flowed while designers, buyers, and all types of public relations experts turned waiting in line for a show into a networking opportunity.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Erdem
Erdem Moralioglu, from Montreal, studied at the Royal College of Art. He describes his designs as “color, optimism and oddities."
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Accessorize
They're the kind of heels you can wear with your girlfriends, says one catwalk onlooker. Along with the runway shows, Somerset House hosted a myriad of designers throughout its many rooms to feature bags, hats, sunglasses and jewelry.
Modern Fashion, 70s Architecture
Another catwalk venue was on the South Bank of the Thames river. Queen Elizabeth Hall is part of a vast arts complex built from the 1950s to the 1970s.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Good Hair Day
A bad haircut can be one of the most stressful experiences for models and aspiring fashionistas alike. London Fashion Week did its part for the morale of the city by offering free haircuts to attendees.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Milan, Paris, London
The 25th anniversary festival promoted by the British Fashion Council brough big UK names back to their homeland. But one fashion expert told CNBC that UK names were finding it hard to show in the more established annual galas in Milan and New York.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
What's a Party Without Disco Balls?Backstage the champagne flowed while designers, buyers, and all types of public relations experts turned waiting in line for a show into a networking opportunity.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Timing Is Everthing
While the first shows managed to kick off on time, delays became greater at the end of the day as the problems of herding audiences, models and press into the venues mounted.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
What Will You Wear to the Next Show?
Fashion wasn't just displayed on the catwalk. Different shows brought out different crowds. Some audiences were definitely haute couture, while others had a more family atmosphere.
Photo by Sharon Lorimer
Politicos and Glitterati
London Fashion Week ended with receptions at No. 10 Downing Street, home of the Prime Minister, and No. 11 Downing Street, home to the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
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0869555ac99accebeba25dcf5465d5b0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/lords-of-finance-wins-prestigious-ft-and-goldman-sachs-business-book-of-the-year-award.html | 'Lords Of Finance' Wins Prestigious FT And Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award | 'Lords Of Finance' Wins Prestigious FT And Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award
Lords of FinanceLords of Finance
Congratulations to Liaquat Ahamed author of "LORDS OF FINANCE: 1929, The Great Depression, and the Bankers Who Broke the World" for winning the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2009.
The announcement was made last night at a gala dinner at the Victoria & Albert Museum in London hosted by Lionel Barber, editor, Financial Times, and Lloyd Blankfein, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Goldman Sachs.
Barber called 'Lords of Finance,' “A brilliant book, which brings to life the 1920s and the role of its great public servants in trying, but ultimately failing, to manage the world financial system. A must for anyone who wants to understand economics.”
Lloyd C. Blankfein added, “Lords of Finance is a timely reminder that turmoil and instability in financial markets are not an invention of the 21st Century. It is an extraordinarily researched book that is beautifully written.”
Email me at bullishonbooks@cnbc.com — And follow me on Twitter
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7a986761d8ac985e48117b181664891b | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/market-niches-have-big-demographic-opportunities-strategist.html | Market Niches Have 'Big Demographic Opportunities': Strategist | Market Niches Have 'Big Demographic Opportunities': Strategist
As the month approaches a finish, David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, and Sean O’Hara, president at RevenueShares Investor Services, shared their market strategies.
“Over the long haul, we’re still headed up,” O’Hara told CNBC.
VIDEO0:0000:00CNBC Market Edge
He sees “big demographic opportunities” in the U.S. with health care, finance and energy.
“Bonds are not a bargain, gold is at an all-time high,” O'Hara said. “There’s still $4.5 trillion in cash, so the money has to go to some place.”
In the meantime, Kelly also said the recovery is on track.
“Seventy-seven percent of the growth is coming from the most cyclical sectors of the economy,” he said. (Read a bearish counterpoint: US Economy is 'Sugar Shocked,' Warns Chief Investor)
“The cyclical sectors are moving up and also productivity is absolutely barn-burner here. It looks like we’re going to see more than 7 percent productivity growth in the third quarter, following more than 6 percent in the second quarter,” said Kelly.
Judging by the productivity increases, Kelly said the output gains should translate into some job growth within a few months.
What Other Strategists are Saying:
Market Tips: Recovery Strength Is UnderestimatedArt Cashin: Here's What'll Drive Market Rally
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
Cramer: Watch These Regional BanksBiggest Exec Bonuses of Past Decade
______________________________
______________________________CNBC's Companies in the News:
Goldman Sachs
CIT
Goldman Sachs Trims CIT Loan to $2.12 Billion
JPMorgan
JPMorgan Raised Galleon Concerns in 2001: Report
AIG
AIG Says Won't Sell Two Japan Units Edison and Star
Apple
Motorola
Apple Wins Cellphone Market Share, Motorola Struggles
______________________________ Disclosures:
No immediate information was available for Kelly or O’Hara.
______________________________
Disclaimer
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42d3330ceeb813e60cb1d8a30f9766e4 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/market-strategists-tricks-and-treats-for-investors.html | Market Strategists' Tricks and Treats For Investors | Market Strategists' Tricks and Treats For Investors
Where should investors be putting their money—and what should they avoid? Doug Kreps, principal and managing director at Fort Pitt Capital Group, and Brett D’arcy, CIO of CBIZ Wealth Management, shared their investing “tricks and treats” in honor of Halloween.
VIDEO0:0000:00Investing Tricks & Treats
“Where people should be afraid of is the spooky area of what’s going on in the commodities and the opposite with the dollar,” Kreps told CNBC.
“We think gold has well overstayed its welcome—like the unwanted guest at the holidays—and is due for a correction. Those moved up 48 percent over the year and demand doesn’t reflect it by any stretch.”
Kreps said the returning consumer will offer a few “treats” in the next few quarters.
“We think there’s a potentially huge treat with regards to global reinvestment in things like aircraft engines,” he said. “Companies like Microsoft , IBM , where they’re both going to benefit from not only the consumer but also the return of corporate investment.”
In the meantime, D’arcy said his “treat” is the pharmaceutical sector.
“It seems like a strange pick going into a recovery mode—you’d think of pharmaceuticals more as a defensive investment,” he said.
“But you’re looking at companies that have single digit PEs, they have dividends that pay over 3 percent, we’re probably going to get some clarity around the national health care reform—and they’re only up 14 percent for 2009. So for 2010, they’ll be a real treat.”
More Market Opinions:
Top Traders: Technical Break May Signal S&P 950Art Cashin: Here's What'll Drive Market RallyCorrection Ends in a Month: Market Pro
CNBC Data Pages:
Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time Oil, Gold, Natural Gas Prices Now Where's the US Dollar Today?
______________________________CNBC Slideshows:
20 Stocks With Potential To Drop
______________________________
______________________________CNBC's Companies in the News:
Citigroup
Citigroup Shares Tumble After Analyst Sees Major Writedown
CIT
CIT Bankruptcy Still Likely Despite $1 Billion From Icahn
Amgen
Amgen Sued Over Alleged Sales Kickback Schemes
______________________________ Disclosures:
No immediate information was available for D’arcy or Kreps.
______________________________
Disclaimer
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e8446b23cf717369148d7012236800f5 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/miramaxs-battsek-is-out-more-contraction-in-specialty-films.html | Miramax's Battsek is Out: More Contraction in Specialty Films | Miramax's Battsek is Out: More Contraction in Specialty Films
Here's yet another piece of news in the ongoing decline of the movie studios' "specialty" film business: the head of Disney's Miramax Films is being pushed out of the company.
This isn't a huge surprise: earlier this month Disney laid off 70 percent of Miramax's employees and cut the number of movies it'll release to just two a year. This represents Disney (and the rest of Hollywood's) shift away from riskier Oscar-bait that targeted an adult audience. Instead the studios are focusing on big-budget "tentpole" films that are increasingly based on existing brands and franchises, hoping to attract the younger demographic that shows up en masse at the theater.
This is the latest in a long string of consolidation/elimination of the other studios' specialty divisions. When Time Warner consolidated its New Line into its Warner Brothers studio in 2008 it shut down Warner Independent Pictures and Picturehouse. Paramount Vantage was dramatically scaled down and consolidated into its parent studio in June 2008. Universal Studios' Focus Features is rumored to be the next specialty division headed for some major cuts, as the parent studio just underwent some major reorganization. Fox Searchlight, 20th Century Fox's specialty studio has fared better than some of the others thanks to hits like "Juno."
Here's the statement released today from Rich Ross, the newly appointed chairman of "The Walt Disney Studios.” With the change in direction at Miramax, we have reached a mutual agreement with Daniel Battsek that he will leave his post as president, effective January 2010. During his 18 years of service, he has brought some very prestigious and award-winning films to the Studio from Calendar Girls to The Queen to No Country for Old Men. We wish Daniel the very best on his future endeavors."
Miramax is shutting down its New York office and opening a small office on Disney's lot. Not only is It'll be a huge cultural shift to for the remaining few folks at Miramax to leave the labels long-time New York home. Miramax was founded by the Weinstein brothers in 1979 and acquired by Disney in 1993)Miramax's Battsek is Out: More contraction in Specialty Films
Here's yet another piece of news in the ongoing decline of the movie studios' "specialty" film business: the head of Disney's Miramax Films is being pushed out of the company. This isn't a huge surprise: earlier this month Disney laid off 70 percent of Miramax's employees and cut the number of movies it'll release to just two a year. This represents Disney (and the rest of Hollywood's) shift away from riskier Oscar-bait, that targeted an adult audience. Instead the studios are focusing on big-budget "tentpole" films that are increasingly based on existing brands and franchises, hoping to attract the younger demographic that shows up en masse at the theater.
This is the latest in a long string of consolidation/elimination of the other studios' specialty divisions. When Time Warner consolidated its New Line into its Warner Brothers studio in 2008 it shut down Warner Independent Pictures and Picturehouse. Paramount Vantage was dramatically scaled down and consolidated into its parent studio in June 2008. Universal Studios' Focus Features is rumored to be the next specialty division headed for some major cuts, as the parent studio just underwent some major reorganization. Fox Searchlight, 20th Century Fox's specialty studio has fared better than some of the others thanks to hits like "Juno."
Here's the statement released today from Rich Ross, the newly-appointed chairman of "The Walt Disney Studios:
"With the change in direction at Miramax, we have reached a mutual agreement with Daniel Battsek that he will leave his post as president, effective January 2010. During his 18 years of service, he has brought some very prestigious and award-winning films to the Studio from Calendar Girls to The Queen to No Country for Old Men. We wish Daniel the very best on his future endeavors."
Miramax is shutting down its New York office and opening a small office on Disney's lot. Not only is It'll be a huge cultural shift to for the remaining few folks at Miramax to leave the labels long-time New York home. Miramax was founded by the Weinstein brothers in 1979 and acquired by Disney in 1993)
Hollywood Is Talking About: Avatar
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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eed5ee637c9b46f3c314479fe40e0d49 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/nat-gas-ceo-clean-coal-is-technological-fantasy.html | When the market takes the kind of hit we saw Friday, with the Dow and Nasdaq off 2.5% and the S&P 500 down 2.8%, investors should turn to longer-term themes. Like natural gas, Cramer told the crowd at The University of Oklahoma Price College of Business.
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
He predicts the commodity’s price could reach $6 in 2010, so the losses in these stocks today may have been an opportunity. One of his favorites? Chesapeake Energy , but not just for its profit potential.
VIDEO0:0000:00Natural Selection
Chairman and CEO Aubrey McClendon is a big proponent of nat gas in Washington. Like Cramer, McClendon knows that his industry’s future depends on Congress’ blessing. Right now the powerful coal lobby has most representatives’ ears, but thanks to the work of McClendon and others that is changing.
Chesapeake, along with Devon Energy , operates out of Oklahoma, the number four state in terms of natural-gas reserves and number two for production. That, of course, meant it was a must that Cramer get McClendon to agree to an interview during Mad Money’s visit to OU.
Watch the video for the latest from this top industry CEO. Find out why McClendon says clean coal, which seems to be favored over nat gas here in the US, is a “technological fantasy” and “financial insanity.”
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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c47aa74c470d5dfa5692873ac329338a | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/nintendo-will-bounce-back-in-2010.html | Nintendo Will Bounce Back in 2010 | Nintendo Will Bounce Back in 2010
Following a disappointing quarterly report card from gaming giant Nintendo , Hiroshi Kamide, gaming and software analyst at KBC Securities, believes the firm will do better next year.
"The outlook for next year is actually looking much better than before," Kamide said on CNBC's Asia Squawk Box.
"In the short term, sentiment is rightly rather negative, but looking at this company's track record, I think it will be sensible to assume that going forward, there will be new product rollouts," he said.
VIDEO2:5002:50Nintendo Will Recover in 2010
One key problem they've had this year is that there has been a dearth of hit titles, Kamide noted.
Nintendo's operating profit plunged 52 percent to 64 billion yen ($709 million), below expectations for a 90 billion yen profit.
The Japanese video game manufacturer also slashed its full-year forecast, due to easing demand as rivals Sony and Microsoft ramp-up their catalogue of games. It slashed its annual sales forecast for the Wii by nearly a quarter, and said it would roll out a version of the DS with a larger screen.
"I think it's fair to say things aren't going to be really like last year at all," Kamide said. "Big titles are expected to be released in the second half of next year."
"For the medium term...we have a a bit more comfort over what their prospects are going to be in the next year."
Nintendo shares tumbled 4.9 percent on Friday.
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8ad095b05f5b5466323e8c693b2c2aec | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/october-end-preview-winners-losers.html | October End Preview: Winners & Losers | October End Preview: Winners & Losers
Despite a weak start to the last week of October, the Dow and S&P are now both up 2.58% and 0.85% for the month as of Thursday's closing session. Furthermore, Even though October ranks as a slightly positive month historically on average, up more than 53% of the time for all three major U.S. Indexes, the Nasdaq Composite has trailed behind, currently down 1.2% month to date. However, lets not forget that October has brought some good news, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq Composite all reaching new 2009 closing highs on 10/19 of 10,092.19, 1097.91, and 2176.32, respectively and GDP turning positive yesterday.
Monthly Streaks & MTD Stats:
The Dow is up 250.3 points or 2.58% MTD, tracking for the 4th consecutive month of gains, its longest monthly winning streak since a 7-month rally ending on 1/31/07 **The Dow up 17.9% in the current 4-month rally, its best 4-month % gain since 7/2009 when it rose 20.54% The S&P is up 9.03 points or 0.85% MTD, tracking for the 8th consecutive month of gains, its longest monthly winning streak since an 8-month rally ending on 1/31/07 **The S&P is up 31% in the current 8-month rally, its best 8-month % gain since 4/1999 when it rose 39.4% The NASDAQ Composite is down -24.87 points or -1.17% MTD, halting what would be an 8-month rally, current streak is 7-months **The Nasdaq is on track to its first decline since 2/2009 when it fell -6.68%
Best/Worst October Gains:
The Dow is on track to its best October % gain since 2006 when it gained 3.44% The S&P is on track to its best October % gain since 2007 when it gained 1.48%The Nasdaq is on track to its worst October % drop since 2008 when it fell -17.4%
Historical October Gains:Historically, October on average has yielded positive returns ~54% of the time for the Dow and S&P, but only 38% of the time for the Nasdaq Composite when September has been a positive month: (Data tracked back to 1971)
On average the Dow has increased 1.25% during October, when September has been a positive month, Up 54% of the time, Down 46% of the time.On average the S&P has increased 1.5% during October, when September has been a positive month, Up 54% of the time, Down 46% of the time.On average the Nasdaq has increased 1.04% during October, when September has been a positive month, Up 38% of the time, Down 62% of the time.
Continue on to the next page to see Top/Bottom 5 stocks for each of the Indices MTD as of Thursday's settled prices:
Top 5 Leading/Bottom stocks in the S&P Month-to-Date as of 10/29's Close:
Top 5 Leading/Bottom stocks in the Dow Month-to-Date as of 10/29's Close:
Send comments to: bythenumbers@cnbc.com
bythenumbers.cnbc.com
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da0e041a93cd03045419179c25c0a1a1 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/oklahomas-optimism-infects-cramer.html | We’ve come a long way, baby.
Cramer's Top 10 Natural Gas StocksCramer's 5 Breakout Bank Stocks
Cramer drove that point home on Friday, feeding off the positivity he found in the Heartland. Mad Money had escaped New York’s negativity and landed in the Sooner State, with The University of Oklahoma Price College of Business hosting the latest Back to School Tour show.
Think back a year and try to remember the precipice on which we stood, staring down the failure of the Western financial system and the death of American business. What about now?
VIDEO0:0000:00Accentuate the Positive
Industrial companies like Cummins , 3M and Caterpillar have rebounded to report “remarkable quarters,” Cramer said. The banks, once threatened with nationalization, have scraped their way back to viability. See: Goldman Sachs , Bank of America and Wells Fargo . Both weakened corporations and consumers were supposed to kill the technology business, but IBM is now flush with cash. Intel and Microsoft , like the industrials, delivered “monster quarters” of their own. And Cramer can’t say enough about the power of Apple , the company and the stock.
Speaking of the consumer, retail was written off just the same. Macy’s , J.C. Penney , J. Crew and Home Depot had been shunned in favor of Family Dollar . But that’s not the case anymore. In oil, the price of crude dropped $100 a barrel, while natural gas dropped to as low as $2.41. Now Cramer sees an industry “that’s growing, ready to hire.” In fact, he thinks nat gas could solve, at least in part, the US employment problem.
We have stabilized, Cramer said, albeit at lower levels. And despite the Dow’s 250-point shellacking on Friday, he’s optimistic about the market’s prospects. After all, it was that optimism that helped to recognize the Dow’s early March lows, allowing Mad Money viewers to capitalize on one of the biggest bull runs in history. Expect another 5% pullback from the market’s present levels, Cramer said. So, yes, investors can take some profits while they have them. But they shouldn’t cash out entirely. Instead, they should recognize how far we’ve come.
“I want everybody to look back at the 52-week lows of their stocks,” Cramer said, “to remind themselves of the miraculous return of equities from the abyss we toiled in just one year ago.”
Cramer's charitable trust owns Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot and Wells Fargo.
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC
Questions for Cramer?
Questions, comments, suggestions for the Mad Money website? madcap@cnbc.com
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cacfb9dda09428485aff96eb8716cf61 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/pops-drops-motorola-sony.html | Following are the week's biggest winners and losers. Find out why shares of Motorola and Sony popped while Las Vegas Sands and ArcelorMittal dropped.
POPS (stocks that jumped higher)Motorola (MOT) popped 4%. Investors are growing hopeful that the company’s new Droid phone, which debuts on November 6th, may be a serious player in the smartphone space. - I'm not sure if there's a trade, says Joe Terranova. I'd wait to hear more about the Droid.
VIDEO0:0000:00Stock Pops & Drops
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) popped 6%. The auto parts retailer reported profits that beat analysts estimates and raised its 2009 view. - Nice pop, says Karen Finerman.
Sony (SNE) popped 1%. The firm raised its full year outlook which investors took as a signal the worst may be over for the electronics maker. - With the yen appreciating, I see problems for Japan exporters, says Tim Seymour.
Visa (V) popped 3%. The firm reported strong earnings due to cost cutting and more transactions; also they announced a $1 billion stock buyback. - I like this stock, says Karen Finerman.
DROPS (stocks that slid lower)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) dropped 8%. The casino issued a wider than expected loss, though Chief Executive Sheldon Adelson did provided a somewhat upbeat outlook for 2010. - At $15 it's in no-mans land, says Guy Adami.
ArcelorMittal (MT) dropped 11%. The steel maker dampened recovery expectations on Wednesday with a muted forecast for the final three months of 2009. - I think you can start to buy steel stocks here, says Tim Seymour.
Apollo Group (APOL) dropped 23%. The SEC announced an investigation into its revenue recognition practices. - SEC probes are never good, says Guy Adami.
Valero Energy (VLO) dropped 12%. The oil refiner reported a third quarter loss on lower margins and demand. - Most refiners have been rallying, explains Joe Terranova. I'd stay away from this one.
______________________________________________________Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your e-mail to .Trader disclosure: On Oct. 30th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders;; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman Owns Puts (BAC); Finerman Owns (PDE), (FLS), (RIG), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PDE), (RIG) (TGT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Is Long Puts (AMZN); Finerman's Firm Is Long Puts (BAC); Finerman's Firm Is Long Call Spreads (BAC); Finerman's Firm Is Long (FLS); Finerman's Firm Is Short Calls (FLS); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO, Terranova Owns(GS); Seymour Is Short Puts (AA); Seymour Is Long Puts (BAC); Seymour Is Long Puts (BX); Seymour Is Long Puts (EEM); Seymour Is Long Puts (F); Seymour Is Short Puts (FXI); Seymour Is Long Puts (LVS); Seymour Is Long Puts (MSFT); Seymour Is Short F (PBR); Seymour Is Long Puts (SBUX)
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5a737797d8175b4cfcee5355307afa35 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/rep-waters-i-did-nothing-wrong-contacting-treasury.html | Rep. Waters: I Did Nothing Wrong Contacting Treasury | Rep. Waters: I Did Nothing Wrong Contacting Treasury
The House Ethics Committee formally acknowledged that Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA.) is under investigation for allegedly using her influence to help a bank in which her husband owned stock.
VIDEO0:0000:00Regulation Overload?
Waters told CNBC Friday that it's her job to connect minority agencies that otherwise wouldn't have access to regulatory agencies. She added that she's convinced she did nothing wrong by contacting the Treasury about the bank.
"This is what I do," Waters said. "The bank that is being referred to is one bank of many banks that is represented by the association, and absolutely there is nothing wrong with that."
Waters is one of dozens of members of the House under the ethics probe. The investigation came to light when a staff member accidentally released the information while working from home.
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fa968b750b73f44b9038ccc048711cfd | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/report-on-us-gdp-growth-was-actually-horrible-faber.html | Report on US GDP Growth Was Actually 'Horrible': Faber | Report on US GDP Growth Was Actually 'Horrible': Faber
U.S. third-quarter GDP data was "horrible" and investors will soon realize that it wasn't as good as they initially thought, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Doom and Boom Report, told CNBC.com.
CNBC.com
"I wouldn’t rely on the GDP figures and I think the market will actually realize that they were quite poor," Faber said.
The figures, which pleased investors by beating analysts' consensus expectations Thursday, didn't give positive signs for personal income and unemployment, Faber pointed out.
U.S. gross domestic product grew at 3.5 percent on an annualized basis, showing that the economy was, at least unofficially, out of its longest recession since the great depression. But Faber told CNBC.com that the figures were not always reliable. "I wouldn't rely on GDP figures, you can manipulate them," he said.
Stocks rallied after the data and closed sharply higher across the board as investors welcomed the news.
"It's a very important piece of evidence that we are on the road to recovery," Chris Wyllie, head of portfolio management at Iveagh, told CNBC. "The fact that it beat expectations is obviously a positive… The fact that the consumer was stepping up to the plate was a big driver."
Other analysts were more pessimistic and thought the strong third-quarter figures would be as good as it gets for the U.S. economic recovery.
Avoiding Government Bonds
The Federal Reserve could be set to repeat its mistakes of the past by keeping interest rates at practically zero for a protracted period, according to Faber.
"The risk on interest rates is on the upside and it will surprise you how high they will be in 5 or 10 years time," Faber said.
Bernanke only ever targets core inflation, Faber pointed out. But that strategy misses the point and it was the main cause of the current crisis, he said.
"How many people in this room can live without food and energy?" he asked a packed conference hall at the World Money Show. "Maybe at the Federal Reserve," he added.
Faber does not recommend investing in government bonds and said the only condition where government bonds would be a good investment would be if there was further weakness in the economy. Even then government bonds wouldn't be a "happy place to invest," he added.
The Federal Reserve's policy of low interest rates has led to enormous economic volatility and to a "total mispricing of capital," Faber said referencing previous periods of low interest rates.
The "ballistic" surge in oil prices seen in 2007 and the first half of 2008 was caused partly by a lack of investment and rising demand from Asia, but it was aggravated by the Fed slashing interest rates, Faber said.
"Fed policy encouraged people to further speculate in commodities," he said.
The rising fuel prices also acted as a tax on people's income and aggravated the strains on U.S. consumption, he added.
Faber pointed out that there is currently a tug-of-war between the government and corporations and consumers. The government is pushing corporations and consumers to increase leverage, while they try to reduce borrowing in the wake of the financial crisis, he said.
"If you have a drunk and he is drunk, you try to solve his problem by giving him more … this is role of the government. In my opinion this worked very badly," he said.
Mugabe is Bernanke's Mentor
The economic boom period before the financial crisis was the only synchronized global boom in the history of capitalism, Faber pointed out. The only country in recession at that time was Zimbabwe, and that was because it was run by Robert Mugabe, Faber said.
Mugabe is the "mentor" of Bernanke, Faber said, causing an outburst of laughter from the conference.
Investors should have at least 50 percent of their money in emerging economies and should be accumulating Asian stocks, Faber said.
Faber also recommends buying only one U.S. Treasury bond and putting it in a frame on the wall. He said it will only be good for showing the grandchildren as it will become worthless.
Faber also suggests holding "some gold" and warns against trusting fund managers.
Slideshow: Biggest Debtor Nations
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d437e1fa76bfa9b4cafd3970177a98b9 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/schork-oil-outlook-what-spooks-us.html | Schork Oil Outlook: What Spooks Us | Schork Oil Outlook: What Spooks Us
What goes around comes around and the December crude contract came around in a big way yesterday, reversing Wednesday’s 1.6% drop with a $2.41 or 3.1% rise to close at 79.87. Prices received a boost after the morning’s GDP results and crossed Wednesday’s 78.45 pivot high before 9am. The bears politely stepped aside thereafter and projected 78.91 inflection was passed with little resistance - prices peaked a dime above our 80.36 intraday but total volume was down 2.4%.
As far as next week’s EIA report goes, the five-year average is 29 Bcf with an error of in between 40 Bcf and 18 Bcf. If we see an injection in the lower end of the error, that would still push storage up to 3.78 Tcf, i.e. to within 3% of capacity.
Bottom line, we are at record high surplus in all three market areas and we are at theoretical capacity in the West and within hailing distance of it in the GoM. Thus, from this point on the bulls are gambling on the weather.
NEW Slideshow: World's Biggest Oil ReservesGreen Car Incentives Are Just Starting To RollCNBC Special Report - The Carbon ChallengeRead what other CNBC Contributors are saying...
_________________________
Stephen Schork is the Editor of, and has more than 17 years experience in physical commodity and derivatives trading, risk systems modeling and structured commodity finance.
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59835f90e914ac1c2fc4355107ab098b | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/senate-vote-on-housing-tax-credit-likely-next-week.html | Senate Vote on Housing Tax Credit Likely Next Week | Senate Vote on Housing Tax Credit Likely Next Week
A bill that would extend unemployment benefits as well as expand the homebuyer's tax credit program won't be voted on until Monday evening at the earliest.
The bill, which is technically an amendment to the Emergency Unemployment Compensation Extension Act, was introduced by about four dozen senators Thursday afternoon, following a battle over efforts to attach other amendments.
AP
In an effort to expedite the process, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) filed a motion to end discussion of the amendment. A cloture vote is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET Monday. Even with an affirmative vote, Senate rules allow opponents to put off a vote on the bill itself for another 30 hours.
Both the housing credit and jobless compensation extensions are seen as critical to the economic recovery, which remains unconvincing in some quarters. After months of gains, momentum in the housing sector appears to be slowing, perhaps partly because potential buyers are uncertain they can close a deal by the Nov. 30 deadline to qualify for the $8,000 credit.
The bill extends the deadline to April 30, 2010, expands the credit to repeat buyers and raises existing income eligibility limits.
Under the new proposal, people who have lived in a primary residence for five consecutive years would be eligible for a $6,500 credit when purchasing a new property.
Income limits will be raised to $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for couples, vs. $75,000 and $150,000 previously.
The maximum house value rises to $800,000.
Senators Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), who chairs the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, and Johnny Isakson (R. Ga.), a former real estate professional, have been two of the loudest proponents of an extension and expansion.
The new terms represent a compromise between two factions in the Senate and essentially split the difference with a less generous one advanced by Reid, whose home state of Nevada leads the nation in foreclosures, and Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who heads the Senate's finance committee.
“Every economist will tell you we have to steady the housing market before the economy will turn around,” said Dodd in outlining the provisions Thursday. “We can’t afford to let this tax credit expire now. "
Some 2 million Americans also face the expiration of their unemployment benefits, if coverage is not extended. More than 15 mnillion are now out of work. The bill would give workers an additional 14 weeks. Those living in states with unemployment rates over 8.5 percent (the national rate is 8.9 percent) would get 20 weeks. Congress passed a similar measure earlier this year.
Unemployment is expected to continue its rise during the early part of 2010, with some economists predicting a rate of 10 percent or more. (The October rate along with payroll data are due out next Friday.)
The weak labor market market has been a drag on housing for sometime; as people lose their jobs, some become delinquent in their mortgage payments and the property goes into foreclosure. That's created a glut of properties and put downward pressure on prices.
The decision to apply the tax credit program to repeat buyers and those with higher incomes is notable. Supporters say the original plan was only helping lower-income buyers and thus creating a limited housing recovery.
A Nixon-era program, for instance, applied to all buyers and owner-occupied residential properties and is thought to have helped new construction along with the existing home market.
The Obama administration Thursday urged the Senate to extend the housing credit, but it is unclear if the White House now favors expanded eligibility.
The tax credit has been a major factor in a home sales bump that started in the spring. A national realtors group has forecast the credit would lead to about a 350,000 sales that would not have ordinarily taken place. About 2 million people were expected to take advantage of the program.
Mortgage rates remain near historic lows and housing affordability is the best in years, as sellers drop prices to attract buyers.
Isakson said it would be the "last extension."
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9251de7db46f1842964aef34ed806f52 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/stocks-unlikely-to-be-spooked-on-halloween-eve.html | Stocks Unlikely to be Spooked on Halloween Eve | Stocks Unlikely to be Spooked on Halloween Eve
Stocks could tip toe past Halloween before they get spooked again.
The stock market had its best day since late July, after Thursday's report of better-than-expected third quarter GDP sparked a return of the "risk trade." That is a tightly linked trade, where assets that thrive in an economic recovery, like stocks and commodities, rise and safe haven plays, like the dollar and bonds sink.
AP
Third quarter GDP signaled the end of the recession with the first positive growth since second quarter, 2008. At 3.5 percent, it topped economists' expectations for growth of 3.2 percent. The better number prompted at least one economist, Deutsche Bank's Joseph LaVorgna, to bump his forecast for fourth quarter and 2010.
The Dow jumped 199 or 2 percent to 9962, and the S&P 500 rose 23 to 1066, a 2.3 percent gain. The Nasdaq was up 1.8 percent at 2097. The dollar though lost 0.8 percent against the euro, after four days of gains, and the dollar index was down about 0.6 percent, at 75.99 in late afternoon. Commodities jumped, with oil gaining 3.1 percent to $79.87 and gold, copper, wheat and soy beans all higher on the day.
Stocks could head into Friday on a positive note. "Friday is the last day of the year for a lot of people, and that should help the stock market," said Tim Smalls of Execution LLC.
"Over the last decade, the majority of the time, the market has done well on the last two days of October. There's a lot of mutual funds that close out their year tomorrow. I think what you're seeing today and tomorrow is some money being put to work," said Smalls. Traders have said selling by mutual funds was responsible for some of the market's decline in the last couple of days, as the month end approached.
The economic news du jour includes personal income; the employment cost index, Chicago Purchasing managers and consumer sentiment." But the weak dollar and better GDP has traders already looking ahead to next week's Fed statement Wednesday and October jobs report Friday.
Dollar Dilemma
Traders have been debating for a week now whether the Fed will change the language in its statement to remove the section about holding rates low for an extended period of time. The topic was first floated in a Financial Times story last week and was picked up by other media since then.
Many Fed watchers are skeptical the Fed would drop that language, even as it remains a topic of major interest on currency and bond trading desks. A change in that specific language would signal markets that the Fed is becoming comfortable with the idea of higher rates, providing some support for the dollar. The dollar's slide has become a worry for many in the markets, who fear it will lead to rising inflation.
"I don't think they're going to change it until the jobs data looks better," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. He said the Fed could change the language early next year and then move on rates later in the year, as they did in 2004.
Kleintop said that lack of action by the Fed should mean the continuation of a good environment for stocks, for the time being. "I think the trend (for stocks) is higher though the easy gains have been had," he said. "We could put on another 5 percent or so between here and the end of the year, and maybe another 5 percent early next year, but then we could start to give them back up again as the market anticipates Fed rate hikes."
Kleintop is more bullish on the near term outlook than some strategists, and he believes the market will be driven by the large amounts of cash still on the sidelines. He pointed out that after a 5 percent correction, the losses were already half gone in a day as investors aggressively bought the dip.
"I think what's interesting is that while Wall Street, or investors, seemed to be ahead of analysts when it came to earnings..they seem to be behind the curve relative to the economists," said Kleintop.
"I think the market was expecting something in the 2 percent area...It was a little bit of a surprise here and certainly confirmation of the recovery, and if we could get the jobs data to look better, we'd be more comfortable that it's sustainable."
Recession Over
LaVorgna raised his forecast for fourth quarter GDP to 4 percent, followed by 4.5 percent in the first quarter, and then 3.5 percent in the second quarter. He had expected third quarter GDP of as high as 4 percent. "These numbers next year are not strong, relative to history. We're still way below the average," he said.
"I thought they (third quarter) were very good numbers. It was a nice mix. The recession is over. I think that's the key thing," he said. "Now the question is when does the labor market partake in his improvement. Nobody's going to believe the recovery is over until we see jobs turn around."
Winterizing Your Portfolio - A CNBC Special Report
"I don't see stimulus in the numbers yet, so this isn't a government stimulus story yet. We still have massive inventory liquidation yet..At some point, inventories will be positive," he said.
Disappointing in the numbers was that cap ex was only up 1 percent. "I thought it was going to be up 7 or 8 percent. I want to see it a little bit stronger," he said.
"The good thing is you saw consumer spending turning up," he said.Treasurys Tumble
As stocks soared, Treasurys fell. The afternoon auction of $31 billion in 7-year notes was weaker than previous auctions of $85 billion in 2- and 5-year notes this week. "I think supply suddenly caught up with us a little bit," said Brian Edmonds of Cantor Fitzgerald.
"We saw the market first start trading off after GDP..I think given the relative strength of the 2-year note and 5-year notes..we did tail a little bit and the market started trading off afterward," said Edmonds.
The 10-year yield, as a result rose to 3.5 percent from 3.42 percent.
What Else to Watch
There are some major earnings Friday, including Chevron, Sanofi-Aventis, Constellation Energy, Duke Energy, Aon, Arch Coal, CMS Energy, Penske Auto Group, Washington Post and Weyerhaueser.
Companies Reporting
Also, the White House will brief media tomorrow on the status of stimulus spending and jobs, covered by the Recovery Act.
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Correction:An earlier version of this posting incorrectly stated that existing home sales for September would be released today, that was an error which has been corrected.
— Questions? Comments?
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79440dcef7dffb0806729722714c0542 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/the-markets-give-up-yesterdays-gains.html | The Market's Give Up Yesterday's Gains | The Market's Give Up Yesterday's Gains
Bob Pisani is on assignment today, this post was written by CNBC producer Robert Hum.
Stocks have given up all of yesterday’s strong gains now. The markets drifted lower into the early afternoon as the dollar flirted with its own session highs. Then, as the S&P 500 fell below its Wednesday close of 1,042 (which was a 3-week low), the markets took another move lower. A notable increase in volume of the S&P 500 SPDRs was also seen by traders as the S&P fell below this support level.
The correlation between the stock markets and the dollar undoubtedly continues to be strong. Equities have fallen five of the last six days, while the U.S. Dollar Index has risen five of the last 6 days. The exception, of course, was yesterday, when stocks had their best day in three months as the dollar snapped its streak of gains.
Taking a hit today as a result of the stronger dollar are commodities. Crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline, and copper all having their worst day in a month. Commodity stocks are following suit, as many of the oil, steel and metal stocks are down mid-single digits, while a number of the gold stocks are falling 5 percent to 7 percent.
Also notably weak today are many of the big industrial/cyclical stocks (Honeywell,Deere, Caterpillar, FedEx), which are falling 3 percent-5 percent.
The Big Guys Take A Hit
On the other hand, traders are favoring defensive stocks a bit more, as companies like Altria,Merck, Coca-Cola, Kimberly Clark and ConAgra are performing noticeably better, falling only fractionally to down 1 percent. A handful of consumer stocks (Kellogg, Clorox, Colgate ) are even still holding on to gains today.
Playing Defense With These Stocks
Still, the lack of follow-through from yesterday’s rally and the fact that the markets have instead given up all of their gains from yesterday is discouraging to the bulls, and a victory for the bears.
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Questions? Comments? tradertalk@cnbc.com
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456ca220e1d97e682a0cea95604aa9a8 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/tony-fratto-white-house-counts-jobs-but-not-what-counts.html | Tony Fratto: White House Counts Jobs, But Not What Counts | Tony Fratto: White House Counts Jobs, But Not What Counts
We can count our blessings. We can count sheep. We can count our chickens before they hatch. We can even count how many licks it takes to get to the Tootsie Roll center of a Tootsie Pop.
But we can't count the net employment impact of the President's stimulus spending.
The White House will be at it today with yet another report attempting to show the number of jobs "saved or created" resulting from President Obama's $787 billion stimulus bill.
I can imagine the White House communications shop checking and double-checking with jobs-counting staff to get the numbers right this time after the double-counting and error-plagued earlier reports. But I can't imagine a more useless exercise that completely misses the aims of an expensive stimulus bill.
No one disputes that if the federal government shovels largess to states and businesses, some jobs will be "saved" and some jobs will even be "created". And I'd be happy to concede whatever number of jobs the White House claims are directly attributable to the stimulus if the White House would be willing to honestly acknowledge that it has no clue what impact the stimulus has had on net employment — and how useless its number is from a macro-economic standpoint.
Let's pretend for the sake of argument that the White House's numbers are accurate (even as news organizations have demonstrated flaws in their accounting). The White House claims "hundreds of thousands of jobs" have been "saved or created".
Job Losses
They'll try to make that sound big, but let's put it into context: More than 500,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits this week. More than 500,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. And more than 500,000 Americans are likely to file for unemployment benefits next week. In fact, even with a roaring economy, with very low unemployment, more than 250,000 Americans will lose their jobs and file for unemployment in a given week.
In addition, nearly 140 million Americans are at work today, even with unemployment running at 10%, and between 100,000-130,000 adult Americans enter the labor force every month, all looking for jobs. So, to reduce unemployment a net increase of more than 130,000 will have to be created EVERY MONTH to begin to reduce the unemployment rate.
Understood that way, the numbers the White House will cite are puny, and however happy we might be for the workers who have jobs as a direct result of that spending, the stimulus is having an exceedingly minimal impact on overall job creation.
What really counts is net job creation — jobs created minus jobs lost on a seasonally-adjusted basis. But since neither the White House nor anyone else can say with any degree of accuracy what employment would otherwise have been absent the stimulus, it has no earthly clue what the net impact of the stimulus is — not because they didn't try to count, but because it's impossible.
And net job creation is negative and will remain negative for a long time — until net job creation turns positive the unemployment rate will continue to rise, and the economic recovery will be tepid.
Whatever numbers the White House claims, that's something you can count on.
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______________________ Tony Fratto is a CNBC on-air contributor and most recently served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy Press Secretary for the Bush Administration.
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1cebe9aabe18d61c0d5ebaa612532370 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/washington-post-company-thrives-on-cost-cutting.html | Washington Post Company Thrives on Cost Cutting | Washington Post Company Thrives on Cost Cutting
These days in the newspaper industry, you can't expect positive news to come from an ad increase - the only upside is when cost-cutting works. Though Washington Post Company shares dropped this morning along with the market, journalists in its newsroom must have sighed with relief that the buyouts and streamlining should let up a bit. Cost-cutting at the Post's newspapers worked, helping increase the company's net income 69 percent in the third quarter. That improvement in the newspaper business plus continued strong performance from the Post's Kaplan education business and its cable TV channels yielded earnings of $1.81 per share, up from $1.08 in the year-ago quarter on two percent higher revenue of $1.15 billion.
newspaperAP
The newspaper division is still facing serious headwinds: advertising at the Post company's namesake paper plunged 28 percent in the quarter, compared to a 20 percent drop in the prior quarter. This drop is in line with the advertising declines the New York Times Company and Gannett reported with their earnings over the past few weeks. But unlike the Times, where declines seem to be moderating, at the Post it looks like things are getting worse.
The Post has put a big push behind revamping its website, but ads there dropped 18 percent this quarter, double the percentage decline in the previous quarter. Considering the fact that new circulation numbers reveal that more people than ever are cancelling their print subscriptions to read the newspaper for free online, this news is particularly grim. And Newsweek, which launched a redesigned look in May, suffered a 48 percent drop in ad revenue in the quarter.
The Washington Post Company doesn't hold an earnings call or give any guidance to analysts, but one thing seems clear: the Kaplan and cable divisions will continue to be the company's growth drivers. Kaplan revenue grew 14 percent, accounting for sixty percent of the company's total revenue, while its operating income fell 10 percent on a one-time accounting charge. Cable revenue grew four percent and operating income dropped three percent.
It's telling about the state of the publishing industry that this iconic newspaper company is now more about selling education services than it is about selling papers or ads. The Post Company is smart and lucky to have the growing education services business to grow on. While ad declines may be moderating at the New York Times Co., no other publisher has the kind of diversification that the Post does.
New Media Update - MySpace's 'Socialization of Content' and New Music Tools
Questions? Comments? MediaMoney@cnbc.com
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610d295d47d37f22da760d79daaa1a70 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/web-extra-adamis-ford-trade.html | With Ford reporting earnings on Monday, how should you trade in the wake of the report? Find out why Guy Adami says it's all about $6.60!
This content is only available online - you won't find these trades on TV.
VIDEO0:0000:00Fast Money Web Extra
______________________________________________________Got something to say? Send us an e-mail at fastmoney-web@cnbc.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap! If you'd prefer to make a comment but not have it published on our website send your message to .Trader disclosure: On Oct. 30th, 2009, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s Fast Money were owned by the Fast Money traders;; Adami Owns (AGU), (C), (GS), (INTC), (MSFT), (NUE), (BTU); Finerman Owns Puts (BAC); Finerman Owns (PDE), (FLS), (RIG), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Owns (MSFT), (NOK), (PDE), (RIG) (TGT), (WMT); Finerman's Firm Is Long Puts (AMZN); Finerman's Firm Is Long Puts (BAC); Finerman's Firm Is Long Call Spreads (BAC); Finerman's Firm Is Long (FLS); Finerman's Firm Is Short Calls (FLS); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IJR), (MDY), (SPY), (IWM), (UNG), (USO, Terranova Owns(GS); Seymour Is Short Puts (AA); Seymour Is Long Puts (BAC); Seymour Is Long Puts (BX); Seymour Is Long Puts (EEM); Seymour Is Long Puts (F); Seymour Is Short Puts (FXI); Seymour Is Long Puts (LVS); Seymour Is Long Puts (MSFT); Seymour Is Short F (PBR); Seymour Is Long Puts (SBUX)
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64139c679eb2df7efa9e7c29315a9f86 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/30/white-house-claims-stimulus-created-or-saved-650000-jobs.html | White House Claims Stimulus Created or Saved 650,000 Jobs | White House Claims Stimulus Created or Saved 650,000 Jobs
On the final business day of October, the Obama Administration released the most complete report yet on how the Recovery Act is performing in the greater U.S. economy.
Stimulus Scorecard
Of the approximate $160 billion spent through the end of September, the White House says the Recovery Act can be credited with “directly creating or saving about 650,000 jobs.” About 325,000 of those jobs are in education, and over 80,000 are in construction.
Those numbers involve direct and full-time employment according to the metrics used, and the official statement made a point that the number was most likely above 1-million with “indirect” job creation, as well as the impact from entitlements like unemployment insurance, as well as tax cuts.
"The 1-million saved or created has been out for a while,” Vice President Biden’s chief economist Jared Bernstein told CNBC. “If you look at these numbers through the economy, that's the number saved or created."
The White House very much wants this number to be viewed in the context of Thursday’s announcement that third quarter GDP showed a growth rate of 3.5 percent.
VIDEO0:0000:00Joe on Jobs
“Without the economic recovery act, it's very unlikely that this economy would have expanded at all this last quarter,” Vice President Joe Biden said Friday. “It may even have contracted.”
With the U.S. unemployment rate closing in on 10 percent, the White House is facing pressure to deliver on what many believe to be the most important measure of a successful stimulus—jobs.
Today’s data shows California, with the nation’s 4th highest unemployment, boasts the largest number of jobs saved or created with stimulus spending: more than 100,000.
"It's all about jobs, jobs, jobs," California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said during a press briefing. "That is the most important thing, to create those jobs and put people back to work."
Early criticism of data released by the Recovery Board surrounded the failure to address unemployment in the areas of the country hurting most. The White House claims today’s data will show "the highest unemployment rates nationwide reported 25 percent more jobs created and saved per capita than the nation as a whole."
Here’s how the states with the highest unemployment have faired with their stimulus spending:
With $5.2 billion in funds obligated, Michigan created or saved more than 22,000 jobs. Top recipients included the Michigan departments of Transportation and Education.With almost $1 billion in funds obligated, Nevada created or saved 5,667 jobs. Nevada's Clark County School District received the most funds.Rhode Island created 2,012 jobs with a total of $673 million going to the state. Of that, $125 million went to its Department of Transportation.
Today’s data dump included a total of 130,362 reports: 13,080 from federal contracts, 116,675 on grants, and 607 on loans.
VIDEO0:0000:00State of Stimulus, Jobs
The top stimulus contracts went to nuclear cleanup. Savannah River Nuclear Solutions got $1.4 billion dollars for its work in Aiken, SC. The largest grant goes to California's Office of Planning and Research - $4.4 billion to support education. Solar power firm Solyndra was given the largest loan in the amount of $535 million.
“Analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates the Recovery Act contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter.”
Critics have pointed to the rising rate of unemployment as a symbol of the Recovery Act’s failure. When next week’s government jobs report is released, the expectation is that the unemployment rate might rise as high as 9.9 percent.
Bernstein says, that is not the correct way to view the Recovery Act.
“The Recovery Act is shaving about two percentage points off unemployment,” Bernstein told CNBC. “About 10-percent unemployment is unacceptably high. (But) I think we can all agree that about 12 percent is a lot worse.”
Other critics have pointed to inaccuracies in the reporting process, saying that the jobs numbers are not reliable.
Again, the White House is quick to respond, saying that the historic amount of transparency is unprecedented and that the process is a work in progress—but constantly improving.
“We have made a lot of progress in the subsequent days sharpening the data so that visitors to the site (recovery.gov) can be confident in what they see,” the White House said in an official statement.
About 22-percent of the $787 billion in stimulus funds has been spent so far.
To see the actual numbers, go to recovery.gov, and the updates will be available at some point on October, 30.
Feel free to talk all things stimulus by emailing us at stimulus@cnbc.com.
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ab3ebb7eb0be6f5283cd6b58acabcb10 | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/10/31/clauses-aimed-at-keeping-the-heirs-quiet.html | Clauses Aimed at Keeping the Heirs Quiet | Clauses Aimed at Keeping the Heirs Quiet
To deter lawsuits, many estate plans include a no-contest clause, which provides that anyone who formally challenges the plan gets nothing. Brooke Astor, the New York philanthropist, had one in her will. Michael Jackson reportedly used one in his living trust, a private document that disposed of most of his assets.
While some lawyers recommend the clauses for all wills and living trusts, others include them only when they see red flags for disputes, as when a parent favors one child over others or when there are tensions between someone’s spouse and children from an earlier marriage.
These clauses are becoming more important as people live longer, said Dana G. Fitzsimons Jr., a lawyer with McGuireWoods in Richmond, Va., who handles will contests. The decline in mental faculties that sometimes accompanies old age and the reliance on one child as caretaker are common patterns in court cases, he said.
The provisions that rein in lawsuits by disappointed heirs are known in legal jargon as “in terrorem” clauses, and that Latin term is certainly apt. They threaten to disinherit anyone who sues — for example, asserting that there was some impropriety surrounding the will.
With or without such a clause, if a will is found to be invalid, assets are distributed according to the terms of a previous will or state law, depending on the circumstances, said Howard M. Zaritsky, a lawyer in Rapidan, Va. With a no-contest clause, those who lose a case to have the will thrown out, or bring one on lesser grounds, forfeit what they otherwise would have received.
After Michael Jackson’s death, questions arose about whether his mother, Katherine Jackson, would lose her 40 percent share of the trust assets if she opposed the people named as executors in his will. Ms. Jackson applied to California’s Superior Court for a ruling on this limited issue, as state law permitted her to do. Judge Mitchell Beckloff ruled that she could challenge the executors’ authority without running afoul of the no-contest clause.
A common misconception is that a no-contest clause can turn back heirs who have been disinherited. But the clause has no teeth if they have been left nothing, because “there’s no downside to contesting the plan,” said Paul N. Frimmer, a lawyer with Irell & Manella in Los Angeles. He recommends leaving disfavored heirs enough money so that they will not risk bringing a case.
Although no-contest clauses are usually aimed at relatives, the one in Mrs. Astor’s 2002 will specifically refers to any “entity” — clearly meant to dissuade the charities named in the document from challenging it, said Lisa M. Stern, a lawyer with Proskauer Rose in New York. A 2003 codicil, or amendment, to the will reduced the charities’ share of the estate. But if they participate in a will contest, now expected in Westchester County Surrogate’s Court, and the case fails, they risk getting nothing, Ms. Stern said.
(The fate of Mrs. Astor’s estate has been complicated by the recent conviction of her son, Anthony D. Marshall, and one of her lawyers, Francis X. Morrissey Jr., on charges that they conspired to steal from her by tricking her into changing her will. This might support the charities’ argument that an earlier version of her will is the valid one. Andrew M. Cuomo, the state attorney general who by law represents charities, is not affected by the no-contest clause.)
Most states permit some form of no-contest clause, but Florida specifically prohibits them. If you sign a will while living in another state and it contains a no-contest clause, and then move to Florida and die there without changing your estate plan, the clause would be invalid for most of your assets, said Julie Ann Garber, a lawyer with the Andersen Firm in Key West. One exception might be real estate owned in the state where you lived previously, she said.
In states that permit no-contest clauses, standards for applying them vary and their wording is subject to interpretation, said Matthew P. Matiasevich, a lawyer with Evans, Latham & Campisi in San Francisco, who represents clients in estate lawsuits.
A classic example involved the will of William Randolph Hearst, the newspaper tycoon who died in 1951. More than half a century later, several relatives who were receiving income from a trust established by the will wanted to sue the trustees for investment decisions that they claimed favored future beneficiaries. Court papers show that in 2005 each current beneficiary was to receive an $8.3 million payout from the trust, financed with a portion of the dividends from Hearst Corporation stock.
In a Dec. 19, 2006, decision, the California Court of Appeal affirmed a 2005 trial court order and found the suit would violate the no-contest clause.
GIVEN the complications that can arise, estate planners said the best defense against will contests was to take steps during life to preserve the peace. For example, rather than leaving relatives guessing about the motives behind your decisions regarding who gets what, you may want to spell out your reasoning in your estate-planning documents — or have a frank discussion beforehand.
Other strategies anticipate the two most common grounds for contesting a will or trust. One is undue influence, which refers to efforts by someone to coerce you to sign estate-planning documents that favor him over others. Another is the argument that you lacked capacity when you signed the document, meaning that you didn’t know what assets you had, what you wanted to do with them and who your relatives were.
When one child plays an active role in caring for an elderly parent, others may worry that their sibling is pressuring the parent for a larger share of the inheritance, and that can lead to a claim of undue influence, Ms. Stern said. In such situations, she asks that the child be out of earshot during phone calls or meetings about estate planning. To document a client’s mental state, lawyers sometimes rely on doctors’ exams and videotapes that show a client signing the document and discussing its contents.
For extreme cases there’s another tactic. It involves setting up barriers to will contests by signing a series of documents, each only slightly different from the one it replaces, over a period of years. Those who want to contest the plan must then have each of these documents found invalid before they get to the one they want to apply. And that can be a daunting task.
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b6c4ae54a85402dbcce792f54052bf2c | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/11/02/The-Worlds-Most-Secretive-Tax-Havens.html | The World's Most Secretive Tax Havens | The World's Most Secretive Tax Havens
Recently, the (TJN), an independent organization dealing with the analysis of tax and regulation, released their "Financial Secrecy Index," which ranks the world's most secretive tax havens.The level of financial secrecy provided by tax havens, which TJN argues is a key component of jurisdictions competing to attract financial flows, is ranked by 12 qualitative measures (opacity score) such as laws, regulations and international treaties as well as quantitative measures (weighted score) which taSource: Tax Justice Network
Recently, the Tax Justice Network(TJN), an independent organization dealing with the analysis of tax and regulation, released their "Financial Secrecy Index," which ranks the world's most secretive tax havens.The level of financial secrecy provided by tax havens, which TJN argues is a key component of jurisdictions competing to attract financial flows, is ranked by 12 qualitative measures (opacity score) such as laws, regulations and international treaties as well as quantitative measures (weighted score) which takes into account the amount of cross-border financial services activity of a jurisdiction, or its role in the global financial services to foreigners.In the report, the opacity score and the weighted score are combined to calculate the Financial Secrecy Index Value, from which countries are ranked. For a full methodology and explanation of what the numbers mean, click here. For larger countries like the US and UK, individual states or municipalities were singled out for comparison; which are the areas within the country to offer the most secretive tax environments for individuals and corporations.So, what are the world's most secretive tax havens? Click ahead to find out!By Paul ToscanoPosted 2 Nov 2009
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 23.18Opacity Score: 58Weighted Score: 0.00689Photo: Archibald Ballantine
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 23.18Opacity Score: 58Weighted Score: 0.00689
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 23.53Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.00278Photo: Walter Bibikow | Image Bank | Getty Images
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 23.53Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.00278
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 36.20Opacity Score: 79Weighted Score: 0.00580Photo: Rob Cousins/Robert Harding | Getty Images
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 36.20Opacity Score: 79Weighted Score: 0.00580
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 42.32Opacity Score: 91Weighted Score: 0.00511Photo: DAJ RM | Getty Image
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 42.32Opacity Score: 91Weighted Score: 0.00511
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 76.22Opacity Score: 87Weighted Score: 0.01007Photo: ch-info.ch
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 76.22Opacity Score: 87Weighted Score: 0.01007
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 76.34Opacity Score: 62Weighted Score: 0.01986Photo: AP
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 76.34Opacity Score: 62Weighted Score: 0.01986
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 53.3Opacity Score: 73Weighted Score: 0.01475Photo: Paul Hermans
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 53.3Opacity Score: 73Weighted Score: 0.01475
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 62.4Opacity Score: 79Weighted Score: 0.01752Photo: AP
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 62.4Opacity Score: 79Weighted Score: 0.01752
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 122.30Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.01445Photo: Stuart Gregory | Photodisc | Getty Images
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 122.30Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.01445
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 143.73Opacity Score: 62Weighted Score: 0.03739Photo: Hans-Peter Boc
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 143.73Opacity Score: 62Weighted Score: 0.03739
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 347.79*Opacity Score: 42Weighted Score: 0.19716*Photo: AP
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 347.79*Opacity Score: 42Weighted Score: 0.19716*Figures were calculated for the city of London, as this area represents the most secretive financial environment in the country.
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 403.48Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.04767Photo: AP
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 403.48Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.04767
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 513.40Opacity Score: 100Weighted Score: 0.05134Photo: AP
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 513.40Opacity Score: 100Weighted Score: 0.05134
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 1127.02Opacity Score: 87Weighted Score: 0.14890Photo: Phyllis Buchanan
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 1127.02Opacity Score: 87Weighted Score: 0.14890
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 1503.80*Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.17767*Photo: Getty Images
Financial Secrecy Index Value: 1503.80*Opacity Score: 92Weighted Score: 0.17767
*Figures were calculated for the state of Delaware, as this area represents the most secretive financial environment in the country.
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33228e30c357e6f198920216ef16602f | https://www.cnbc.com/2009/11/02/what-to-do-if-the-market-goes-cold-this-winter.html | What To Do If The Market Goes Cold This Winter | What To Do If The Market Goes Cold This Winter
Investors accustomed to seeing strong stock market gains in the October-February period, may be wondering what this year will bring after the stunning rally that began in April.
Much of that has been based on the assumption that recession would yield to recovery a
Wall StreetJaap Steinvoorte
nd then expansion. There is, however, a contrarian view that says the market is already way ahead of the economic reality and that the rally to date, never mind the end-of-year bounce, is wishful thinking.
Call it the what if scenario. Suppose we are in for a double dip recession, or an anemic, flat-line recovery? What should you do with your money if the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops like the temperature this winter?
Whither the Economy?
“It depends on the timing of the pull back, and how it happens,” says Larry Adam, chief investment strategist at Deutsche Bank, says, “If it’s a deep global recession, there are not many places to hide. Basically, you want to be in treasuries and cash.”
Guide to Alternative Investing
In this case, Adam says, defensive sectors like health care, energy and consumer staples, as well as dividend-paying companies will outperform. He says dividend-paying companies haven’t participated in as much upside, and you get the benefit of the dividends that are being paid.
“If it’s a U.S.-centric recession, you can still have exposure overseas," he explains. "China and the emerging markets will continue to do well.” In such a scenario, Adam recommends gold because the dollar would continue to be weak.
Diversify, Diversify, Diversify
That said, there is no substitute for diversification.
Having exposure to bonds when the market is falling, and equities and commodities on the other side, is crucial. He says you need access to the different styles—growth versus value, small versus large cap, international versus domestic. Adam estimates that 5-10 percent of a portfolio should be in commodities.
Stacy Francis, president of Francis Financial in New York City, couldn’t agree more.
“Part of the reason that people found themselves getting burned in the last year or so, was they were not as diversified as they thought they were," she says.
Now, she says, people need to look more carefully at the types of stocks, bonds and asset classes they are holding. In a down economy, for example, “it’s not only about having bond exposure, but inflation-protected securities and high-yield bonds.”
Francis also suggests having a small portion of your portfolio in REITs (real estate investment trusts), and commodities. Typically, she says, commodities move more independently of what’s going on in the stock market and are a good inflation hedge.
Dan Solin, senior vice president at Index Funds Advisors and author of several financial books including the “The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read,” also says that a globally diversified portfolio is the way to go.
iStock
Solin adds, however, that “trying to anticipate economic trends is probably the worst, least productive thing you can do. You should determine an asset allocation that is appropriate for you and stick with it through good and bad.”
The best way to determine what risk is appropriate for you and your family, he says, is to take an asset allocation questionnaire that attempts to bring out issues related to risk. The default asset allocation, which is appropriate for most people, is 60 percent in stocks and 40 percent in bonds.
Investing Tips
To achieve a globally diversified portfolio, Solin recommends mutual funds like the Vanguard Total Markets Fund, which replicate the domestic stock market. For international exposure, he suggests the Vanguard Total International Index. Likewise, the Vanguard Total Bond Index is good for a cross section of treasury bills and investment grade bonds. More Complicated OptionsFor those who want more active management, Adam recommends hedge funds during times of uncertainty. “Hedge funds are more flexible,” he says. “They have the ability to go both long and short.”
“If you think that certain companies or sectors are going to get hit particularly hard, hedge funds can short those sectors, and invest long in the ones that you are confidant in.” Being able to long short commodities, currencies, and interest rates, is important, he says.
Another way to protect your portfolio in a downturn, Adam says, is to buy put and call options, which essentially give investors the right to either buy (call) or sell (put) a stock at a future point in time at a set price.
“Buying puts acts as an insurance policy for a portion of your portfolio. In essence, you have to pay a premium out-of-pocket to hedge a portion of your downside exposure,” Adam says. Puts are flexible because you can tailor the strike price and strategy, and are most valuable from a return perspective if you have a significant pullback in the equity market.
“Calls provide less true downside protection as you receive a premium to give someone the right to buy your position at a predetermined strike price, and perform best when the market is stagnant or trades only slightly lower,” Adam says.
Don’t Forget the Basics
One of the most important things that people can do if they’re concerned about financial instability, says Francis, is to build up their reserves. And, if they have not done so already, pay off high-interest debt.
“It gives options that you wouldn’t have otherwise.” She points out that those who faired best in the last recession had sufficient cushioning so they weren’t forced to sell their home in foreclosure.
So, should the market go down, diversify, hedge and try not to sweat. Have the longer-term approach.
“Looking at it that way,” Francis says, “will help ride out the ups and downs that we have seen and will continue to see.”
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63a59efd54ce49f5f5640cde415aff50 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12087596 | Tunisian president says job riots 'not acceptable' | Tunisian president says job riots 'not acceptable'
Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali has condemned violent protests over unemployment as "not acceptable", and has vowed to punish rioters.
He said the demonstrations, which have been held mainly by graduates, would hit tourism and jobs.
Hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Tunis on Monday to demand jobs and an end to corruption.
On Friday, one protester was shot dead during violent clashes in the central town of Menzel Bouzaiene.
"The use of violence in the streets by a minority of extremists against the interests of their country is not acceptable," Mr Ben Ali said in a speech broadcast on Tunisian television.
"It will have a negative impact on creating jobs. It will discourage investors and tourists which will hit jobs."
He added that the law would be "applied in all firmness" to punish anyone found to be instigating violence and disorder, according to AP news agency.
However, he also said that he would seek to find a solution to the problem of unemployment and to improve the standard of living.
Demonstrations were sparked by the attempted suicide earlier this month of a jobless graduate, Mohammed Bouazizi.
The 26-year-old sold fruit and vegetables illegally in Sidi Bouzid because he could not find a job.
According to the Tunisian League for the Defence of Human Rights, he doused himself in petrol and set himself alight earlier this month when police confiscated his produce, telling him he did not have the necessary permit.
Later, another young man electrocuted himself in the same town, saying he was fed up with being unemployed.
In Tunis on Monday, Sami Tahr, head of the union for high school teachers said the demonstrators sought radical solutions to the country's problems.
"We're gathered today in solidarity with the population of Sidi Bouzid and to salute the memories of the martyrs of repression who seek only their right to work," AP reported him as saying.
Protests are rare and political dissent is often repressed in Tunisia, which has been run by Mr Ben Ali for 23 years.
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f7fb20a0783ebc4fe6f8260c10e7ac84 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12111730 | Q&A: South Sudan independence | Q&A: South Sudan independence
The people of South Sudan are preparing for independence after 99% of voters backed leaving Africa's biggest country in two, following decades of conflict with the north.
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47e6e7a8d4ba9cc8aacbd77bfa24d4a3 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12157599 | Q&A: Tunisia crisis | Q&A: Tunisia crisis
A new unity government is due to meet this week. It was announced on 17 January, three days after President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali stepped down and fled the country following weeks of anti-government protests and clashes with police. Until recently, the north African nation - a popular tourist destination - had been seen as a haven of stability and relative prosperity, albeit one ruled with an iron first.
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e4da069895d9e28f81d2000242f9cf02 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12190699 | Rwanda sentences dissident exiles to long jail terms | Rwanda sentences dissident exiles to long jail terms
A military court in Rwanda has sentenced four former top officials who have fallen out with the government to long prison terms.
The men, all in exile, were found guilty of threatening state security and propagating ethnic divisions.
Lt Gen Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, who survived an assassination attempt in June, and Maj Theogene Rudasingwa got 24 years and will lose their army rank.
Patrick Karegeya and Gerald Gahima received a sentence of 20 years each.
The guilty verdict means Rwanda's government could seek the extradition of the men who are currently in exile in either the US or South Africa.
However correspondents say it is unlikely that either country would readily agree to such a request.
Rwanda denies any links to the June 2010 shooting of Lt Gen Nyamwasa in Johannesburg.
The Rwandan government believes Lt Gen Nyamwasa was linked to grenade attacks in Kigali earlier last year and has previously tried to secure his extradition.
Like the other men Lt Gen Nyamwasa was once a close ally of Rwandan President Paul Kagame - and has denied the allegations.
Mr Gahima was Rwanda's prosecutor general, Mr Karegeya was director of external intelligence in Rwanda's military, while Maj Rudasingwa was the top official in the president's office.
The BBC's Geoffrey Mutagoma in the capital, Kigali, says the men were also found guilty of creating a group of criminals; defaming a head of state and disrupting the freedom of the government.
Mr Kagame led the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) rebel movement which put a stop to the 1994 genocide - and has been president since 2000.
The president, who was overwhelmingly re-elected for a second term with 93% of the vote last August, is viewed by many in the West as one of Africa's more dynamic leaders.
However, critics have raised concerns about his more authoritarian tendencies and the government was accused of harassing the opposition ahead of the elections.
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e141e5810ef13ae39ef9c56909553b19 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12205329 | Mauritania woman gets six months in jail for slavery | Mauritania woman gets six months in jail for slavery
A Mauritanian woman has been sentenced to six months' imprisonment for keeping two children in slave-like conditions.
The mothers of the two girls, aged 10 and 14, were also found guilty of negligence and participating in their exploitation for monetary gain.
They each received suspended sentences of six months.
Correspondents say they are rare convictions in a country where slavery persists in some parts despite repeated attempts to abolish it.
The lawyer for the imprisoned woman, Oumoulmoumnine mint Bakar Vall, said she would appeal against the sentence, saying the girls were treated the same as Vall's own daughters and "didn't do much apart from a bit of housecleaning", reported AFP news agency.
Vall was convicted at the court in the capital Nouakchott despite the girls themselves denying they were treated as slaves.
The case, which has been closely followed in Mauritania, has also led to the jailing of several anti-slavery activists for aggression against the police.
They were arrested last month after protesting outside the police station where Vall and the two children were being questioned.
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4f6961c8c3f7c611daac99288d8ab699 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12205969 | DR Congo army commander 'led mass rape' in Fizi | DR Congo army commander 'led mass rape' in Fizi
An army commander in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has been accused of leading the recent mass rape of at least 50 women.
One of the victims, as well as sources quoted in a UN report, all accuse Lt Col Kibibi Mutware of links to New Year's Day rapes in the town of Fizi.
There have been numerous cases of mass rape in DR Congo's conflict but this is believed to be the largest single incident allegedly involving the army.
Lt Col Kibibi has denied the charges.
He said that the soldiers who raided the town had disobeyed orders.
From an everyday fight between two men over a woman, violence escalated into a brutal punitive expedition by a group of government troops against the population of Fizi.
"A soldier was killed here right beside the hospital," explains Dr Faise Chacha, the head of Fizi hospital.
"That started the panic and all our patients fled. We came back at 0500 the next morning and we started taking in people who had been stabbed and others - women - who had been raped."
Dr Chacha and the medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres have treated 51 rape victims so far, but they expect more as women who fled the attacks slowly return home.
As in previous cases of rape in DR Congo, many victims are expected to keep their plight secret to avoid being abandoned by their husbands and families.
Two of them agreed to talk anonymously after medics told the BBC they had been raped.
"I was raped in front of my four children," one of them told the BBC.
"I'm ashamed, very ashamed. If I meet two or three people who are having a discussion, I assume they are talking about me, even though it is not the case."
The other woman was able to identify her attackers.
"It was 1900 [in the evening] and those who raped me were members of the military," she said in a low voice, her body wrapped in a colourful cloth.
"There were four of them - Kibibi and his bodyguards. They stole all our belongings and our money."
This woman was not the only one accusing Lt Col Kibibi, current commander of the 43rd sector in the army's Amani Leo (Peace Today) operation against rebel groups which still roam eastern DR Congo eight years after the country's war officially ended.
Several people who live near the hospital said they saw him ordering his troops to attack the population to avenge their dead comrade.
An internal report by investigators sent to Fizi by the UN peacekeeping mission Monusco and seen by the BBC also quotes local leaders and police sources who accuse Lt Col Kibibi of directing the atrocity.
Monusco sent patrols from the day after the violence from its Baraka base, just over one hour's drive away, and has maintained a 24-hour presence in Fizi since 5 January, which has encouraged the population to come back.
Lt Col Kibibi is a strong man with a small moustache and a boonie hat. When I met him, he was sitting behind a table on which only two mobile phones and one walkie-talkie were visible.
Speaking in the thatched hut from which he commands his troops, he dismissed all accusations levelled against him as rumours and said that those soldiers who committed the crimes had disobeyed his orders to stay in the camp.
He added that he only left his base briefly on 1 January to assess the death of the lynched soldier, and only heard about the night's violence the next morning.
Lt Col Vianney Kazarama, the army spokesman for operations in South Kivu province, acknowledged that government soldiers were responsible for the Fizi attack but he promised swift legal action.
"All those people who have abused the population have already been arrested. The zero-tolerance policy will be enforced on the spot in Fizi," he told the BBC.
In a statement, the UN's special representative on sexual violence, Margot Wallstrom, called on the Congolese authorities to conduct an investigation "thoroughly and without delay".
"Impunity for these types of crimes must not be tolerated," she added.
Lt Col Kibibi is a former member of the CNDP rebel group, which has previously been accused of numerous human rights abuses.
He was integrated into the national army as part of a peace agreement in 2009.
According to a local military source, his unit is a mixture of former militias based on Rwandan-speaking ethnic groups.
Those troops were deployed to Fizi where a conflict between the majority Babembe group and the neighbouring Banyamulenge - another Rwandan-speaking ethnic group - had been simmering for generations.
Fizi residents and soldiers also clashed in April 2010.
The 16 years of unrest in eastern DR Congo have become notorious for the widespread sexual abuse of women and young girls.
More than 300 women, men and children were raped by a coalition of rebel groups in the town of Luvungi and neighbouring villages in North Kivu within miles of a UN base in August.
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bf5cc1c3ef1b27a6ccfb9e07395bc64e | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12206377 | Tunisia unrest: Renewed anti-government protests | Tunisia unrest: Renewed anti-government protests
New protests have broken out on the streets of Tunisia's capital, Tunis, hours before the expected announcement of a new national unity government.
Police used water cannon, teargas and occasional gunshots to disperse several hundred demonstrators calling for the party of ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali to relinquish power.
The country has been in a state of emergency since he fled on Friday.
PM Mohammed Ghannouchi says a deal between parties will be unveiled later.
Mr Ben Ali, who had been in power for 23 years, fled to Saudi Arabia on Friday after a month of mounting protests across the country over unemployment, food price rises and corruption.
Monday's protesters shouted slogans against Mr Ben Ali's Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD), says the BBC's Lyse Doucet in Tunis, as they made it clear they wanted the ruling party to have no place in the new government.
The atmosphere was mixed, adds our correspondent, with the sound of teargas being fired and gunshots ringing out during occasional skirmishes, interspersed with scenes of celebration and a rendition of the national anthem.
Mr Ghannouchi - who was also prime minister during Mr Ben Ali's rule - has pledged rapid action to fill the power vacuum, after being asked to form a government by interim President Foued Mebazaa, the former speaker of the parliament.
Sources close to the negotiations with opposition parties are quoted as saying some portfolios have already been agreed.
After a night of fighting between troops and gunmen loyal to Mr Ben Ali, tanks were patrolling in the capital and other cities in an attempt to restore order on Monday.
Meanwhile France urged Tunisia to quickly form a new government and denounced "criminal gangs" which it said were opposing the change of government.
Days of violence have cut off supplies to shops and petrol stations, causing shortages. Correspondents say many people just want life to get back to normal and are keen for details of the unity government to be announced.
"It's a scary situation here. People just want to see calm and peace," Amel Gaaloul from Tunis told the BBC.
"You have to take risks by going into other neighbourhoods to find supplies, which is also pretty scary as you don't know who will stop you, and people are also guarding their own neighbourhoods."
The demonstrations gained momentum in December after a 26-year-old unemployed man, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire in protest against a lack of jobs in the country. He died in early January.
Amid concerns the protests may spread across the region, a man set himself on fire outside the Egyptian parliament buildings in Cairo on Monday. His motivation was not immediately clear.
There have also been several such incidents in Algeria which, like Egypt and Tunisia, has high unemployment and has been facing political unrest.
Secular leftist Moncef Marzouki has said he will challenge for the presidency in elections which, under the present Tunisian constitution, must be held within 60 days.
In the meantime, Mr Ghannouchi has pledged "zero tolerance" against anyone threatening the security of the country.
But the country remains volatile, and there was heavy gunfire at the Presidential Palace in Carthage, north of Tunis, overnight. In Tunis fighting also continued at the the presidential residence and the interior ministry, where two gunmen firing from a nearby roof were reportedly shot dead by security forces.
The BBC's Wyre Davies, in Tunis, says that while the Tunisian army does not appear to be interfering in the process of political reform, the motives of some members of the police and security services loyal to the ousted president may be more sinister.
The former head of the presidential security force, Ali Seriati, was arrested on Sunday and accused of threatening state security by fomenting violence.
Meanwhile, long queues have appeared at petrol stations and many people are complaining of food shortages caused by the unrest.
On Sunday evening, some Tunis residents blocked roads with makeshift barriers of branches and bins, in an attempt to protect their homes from looters.
Also in Tunis, people have been tearing down the massive portraits of Mr Ben Ali, some of them several stories high, that hung from lampposts and billboards.
There have also been attacks targeting businesses and buildings connected with the former president and his family.
In another development, a group of Swedish nationals - who said they were in the country on a wild boar hunting trip - were attacked and badly beaten in Tunis after it is believed they were mistaken for a group of foreign mercenaries.
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ecebb193ed113791c84b02bad5525bc0 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12219022 | Nigerian flashpoint city Jos: Army shoot-to-kill orders | Nigerian flashpoint city Jos: Army shoot-to-kill orders
Nigeria's army says its soldiers have been given permission to shoot to kill to maintain order in the city of Jos.
"We are ordered to protect civilians and quell violence by any means necessary," military spokesman Capt Charles Ekeocha told the BBC.
A series of killings and bomb attacks over Christmas and New Year are thought to have resulted in more than 100 deaths so far in the central city.
Jos is a flashpoint of tension between Hausa Muslims and Berom Christians.
It sits on the faultline between Nigeria's north and south.
'Massacre' photos
Capt Ekeocha publicly warned community leaders that the military would fire on anybody burning homes, churches and mosques or carrying out lynchings and attacking civilians.
An election official was killed and his body set on fire by an angry mob - one of three people killed in a riot on Monday - as people tried to register to vote.
Jos has experienced repeated outbursts of bloodletting: In deadly riots along city interfaces and in carefully planned attacks on remote villages.
The exact number killed this year alone is uncertain, with officials saying about 100 people died.
But a Christian group -
the Stefanos Foundation
- is questioning that.
It has just published graphic photographs of what it says are more victims of violence.
Their report shows scores of stiffened and charred corpses littering the ground in the aftermath of riots on 8 January.
The Stefanos Foundation says the Nigerian authorities buried those bodies immediately, and that the true scale of the killings is being concealed because the authorities fear sparking reprisals.
The police commissioner in Jos told the BBC he had not seen the photographs.
''On each occasion we have fully disclosed the facts that we are aware of in press conferences and we are not concealing any figures," the commissioner said.
''However, we will study the photographs of these new corpses if they are handed to us."
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069a1958e6fb89250f68b95742d18b39 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12220862 | Tunisia: New government leaders quit ruling party | Tunisia: New government leaders quit ruling party
The president and prime minister in Tunisia's day-old interim government have left the RCD party - a symbol of the old regime reviled by protesters.
Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi insisted his government had "clean hands", but said the transition needed experienced politicians.
Protesters want the RCD disbanded, and say no members of the old regime should retain power.
Three ministers quit the government earlier over the RCD's involvement.
Opposition groups view the RCD (Constitutional Democratic Rally) as synonymous with hardline former President Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali, who was forced from power on 14 January.
State-run television reported that the prime minister and president were leaving the RCD to "split the state from the party".
Interim President Foued Mebazaa was the speaker of the country's parliament until Mr Ben Ali was forced to flee the country.
Mr Ghannouchi, who unveiled the national unity government on Monday, is a veteran RCD figure, and has been prime minister since 1999.
The RCD also expelled Mr Ben Ali from its ranks, according to state TV.
Earlier, three ministers from the opposition General Union of Tunisian Workers (UGTT) stepped down from the new administration over the issue.
Officials from the UGTT said the trio - junior transport minister Anouar Ben Gueddour and two other ministers, Abdeljelil Bedoui and Houssine Dimassi - were resigning in protest.
Mr Ghannouchi's choice as health minister, Mustafa ben Jaafar from the Union of Freedom and Labour, later refused to take up his position in the government.
But analysts say he is known as a moderate, and may be tempted back into the administration by the actions of the leaders.
On the streets of Tunis and several other cities, angry demonstrators called for those members of the RCD still in power to step aside, and were strongly critical of Mr Ghannouchi.
"I am afraid that our revolution will be stolen from me and my people," Ines Mawdud, a 22-year-old student, told the Associated Press.
"The people are asking for freedoms and this new government is not. They are the ones who oppressed the people for 22 years."
Despite the resignations and street protests, a number of ministers were sworn in on Tuesday in official ceremonies in Tunis.
Opposition figure Najib Chebbi, founder of the opposition Progressive Democratic Party, took up his position as development minister.
Prominent blogger Slim Amamou, who was briefly jailed by President Ben Ali's police, was also sworn in as secretary of state for youth and sports.
Earlier, Mr Ghannouchi defended the inclusion of members of the old regime in his new government.
"We have tried to put together a mix that takes into account the different forces in the country to create the conditions to be able to start reforms," he said.
He said some politicians from the previous government were needed to help steer the country towards elections, which he said would be held within six months.
After the resignations, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon renewed his call for "broad-based consultations to establish an inclusive interim government".
Unrest in Tunisia grew over several weeks, with widespread protests over high unemployment and high food prices pitching demonstrators against Tunisia's police and military.
On Monday the government admitted 78 people had died in street clashes.
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d20c352c3af8b3a5ca7cc83caaf86f54 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12258449 | Several injured in pro-democracy march in Algiers | Several injured in pro-democracy march in Algiers
Algerian police have broken up an anti-government demonstration by about 300 people in the centre of the capital, Algiers, calling for greater freedoms.
Several protesters were injured and a number are reported to have been arrested. Seven police officers were also hurt, according to state media.
The leader of the opposition Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD) said those held included its parliamentary leader.
The protest followed rioting in several cities set off by rising food prices.
The government has noted the popular unrest in neighbouring Tunisia, which led to the ousting of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.
Protests in Algeria earlier this month left at least five people dead
There have also been a number of public suicide attempts, echoing the self-immolation of a man in Tunisia that triggered the protests there.
Demonstrations are banned in Algeria because of a state of emergency in place since 1992, and the government had warned people not to attend the demonstration called by the RCD in central Algiers.
"Citizens are asked to show wisdom and vigilance and not respond to possible provocation aimed at disturbing their tranquillity, peace of mind and serenity," it said a statement published by state media.
Hundreds of protesters - some draped in Tunisian flags - nevertheless gathered outside the party's headquarters to march to 1 May Square, chanting "A free and democratic Algeria" and "The authorities are assassins".
At 1100 (1000 GMT) riot police surrounded the crowd and began breaking it up, because the organisers of the rally "had not received permission from the authorities", state-owned Algerian radio reported.
RCD chairman Said Sadi told the Reuters news agency that 32 protesters were injured in the ensuing clashes, including a member of parliament.
Several people were also arrested, including Othmane Amazouz, the head of the RCD's parliamentary group, Mr Sadi said. The AFP news agency said most of those detained were youths, and that some were beaten by police.
State radio quoted an official at the General Directory of National Security (DGSN) as saying that "five people had been arrested during this march, while seven policemen had been injured, two of them seriously".
The official added that the RCD "had asked the security services to help an RCD MP who was injured" and that he had received treatment.
Mr Sadi said the authorities had "plunged the capital into a situation similar to the Battle of Algiers" in 1957, when the French colonial authorities brutally put down a revolt led by the National Liberation Front (FLN).
"A government which seeks to oppress its people is not a government," he told the privately-owned newspaper InfoSoir.
"It has to choose between changing peacefully and taking the country towards chaos," he added. "And this is what we want to avoid."
Many Algerians are feeling inspired by what happened in Tunisia, and they believe now it is their turn to press for change, the BBC's Chloe Arnold in Algiers reports.
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85412449ec29437a2631e6b130841e97 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12723554 | Arab League backs Libya no-fly zone | Arab League backs Libya no-fly zone
The Arab League has backed the idea of a no-fly zone over Libya, as rebels continue to be pushed back by Colonel Gaddafi's forces.
A special meeting in Cairo voted to ask the UN Security Council to impose the policy until the current crisis ended.
The UK and France have pushed for the idea, but have failed so far to win firm backing from the EU or Nato.
Libyan rebel forces have meanwhile suffered fresh setbacks including the loss of the key oil port of Ras Lanuf.
Reports suggested that the rebel front line had been pushed back even further back, towards the town of Ujala.
The Arab League vote for a no-fly zone was opposed only by Syria and Algeria, reports from the Cairo meeting said.
Nato has previously cited regional support for the idea as a key condition before it could possibly go ahead.
The US welcomed the Arab League's call, saying it strengthened the international pressure on Col Gaddafi and support for the Libyan people.
The US Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, had earlier been quoted by French news agency AFP as saying it was still not clear whether it was the right policy.
"We can do it - the question is whether it's a wise thing to do and that's the discussion that's going on at a political level," Mr Gates reportedly told reporters on a US military plane after a visit to Bahrain.
Russia, which wields a veto on the UN Security Council, has expressed serious reservations on the issue.
On Friday, EU leaders in Brussels also stopped short of supporting the British and French initiative, saying instead that they would "
examine all necessary options
" to protect civilians.
The policy would be aimed at preventing Col Gaddafi's forces using warplanes to attack rebel positions, although no clear position has emerged on exactly how this would be achieved.
On the ground in Libya, rebels have continued to lose ground to the superior firepower of Col Gaddafi's forces.
A major new attack was reported near Misrata, thought to be the only significant rebel-held town left in western Libya.
The BBC's Jon Leyne in Benghazi says there are fears the battle for Misrata could be even nastier than the one for Zawiya, which finally fell on Friday after days of fierce fighting.
Misrata is a much bigger city than Zawiya, with a population of some 300,000 people, and one rebel leader has already said he fears a massacre, our correspondent says.
In eastern Libya, fresh strikes near Ujala and Brega were reported by Reuters on Saturday, suggesting that pro-Gaddafi forces were pushing the front line ever further east.
The pan-Arab broadcaster al-Jazeera said one of its cameramen had been killed in an ambush near Benghazi - the main rebel-held city.
In Benghazi itself the mood in the city remains defiant, says the BBC's Pascale Harter: many wounded fighters are returning but other residents are heading for the front line.
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f3c4c74df720bec59702a9a3e78db730 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12843932 | Libya: Barack Obama's step from Nobel winner to warrior | Libya: Barack Obama's step from Nobel winner to warrior
It probably wasn't what the Nobel committee had in mind when it awarded the Peace Prize to President Barack Obama two years ago.
Two months later he ramped up the war in Afghanistan, sending in 30,000 extra US troops.
Now he has ordered massive air strikes on Libya - with United Nations backing, but still with the United States in the lead.
Judged by his actions, this supposedly anti-war president looks almost as warlike as President George W Bush.
If you include Mr Obama's increased use of drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen, he's got the US involved in more conflicts than his much-criticised predecessor.
Judged by Mr Obama's words though, he is in plenty of internal conflict over his decisions.
Far from beating the drums of war, he keeps highlighting the risks and promising US action on Libya will last "days not weeks".
Take a glance at the opinion polls and you can see why.
Less than a week since the first cruise missiles were launched, the clock is already ticking on how long Americans will back him.
Polls by Gallup, CBS and CNN since the attack show Mr Obama's approval ratings hovering around 50%.
Hardly encouraging, when the start of a military campaign is usually the high point of public support.
Surveys gave President Bush 90% approval ratings when he went into Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks.
Even for the early stages of the 2003 Iraq invasion, his ratings were over 60%. They went downhill from then on.
When you dig deeper into the figures for Libya, there are already reasons for White House unease.
Only 47% of respondents were in favour of US military actions in Libya, according to a recent
Gallup poll
.
"We need better judgment when we decide to send our young men and women into war," said one of the candidates in the 2008 White House race.
He listed three key benchmarks: "an imminent threat", protecting "American interests" and a "plan to succeed and to exit".
That candidate of course was Barack Obama. Does President Obama meet his own benchmarks in going into Libya?
Fewer than 40% of people surveyed for the CBS poll believed Libya is "very important" to US interests, with far more sitting on the fence.
Many Americans are bewildered that Mr Obama of all people has got them into another war - one they fear could turn into a costly Iraq-style quagmire at a time when they are being asked to tighten their belts.
When some Democratic senators held a telephone news conference to show support for the president, they were peppered with sceptical questions about how long it would last, how much it would cost and why.
Does the action in Libya pass the "mother test", one reporter asked?
In other words, can the Obama administration justify putting American lives on the line for a mission some in Congress are already saying is not clearly defined?
Leading that charge is the Republican House Speaker John Boehner, but rumblings of discontent are being heard from the Democratic side too.
The White House insists the mission is clear - that if it had not acted against Col Muammar Gaddafi, it would have meant a Rwanda-style genocide against the rebel stronghold of Benghazi and a humanitarian crisis destablising North Africa.
If the Libyan leader is toppled relatively quickly, Mr Obama will look good - and silence those critics who have accused him of lacking courage.
But such is the wary mood, it is unlikely Americans will stomach many US casualties - as they did with Iraq and Afghanistan.
If that happens, watch for comparisons with another US intervention in Africa - Somalia, when 18 Americans were killed in one battle and the rest of the force quickly pulled out.
So what does the Nobel peace prize committee think about its 2009 winner now? They wouldn't comment, except to say that no one can appeal against their decisions under Nobel committee rules.
|
9e03c2b609d28208ed3df1fac59f60e0 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12891407 | Malians cheer Gaddafi as they host Libya football team | Malians cheer Gaddafi as they host Libya football team
Thousands of Malians turned out to cheer on Libya's football team in an African Cup of Nations qualifier in Mali's capital.
The match was held in Bamako because of security concerns in Libya.
About 20,000 Malians turned out to watch the game, many carrying posters protesting against the Western-led military intervention in Libya.
"We were very touched by the Malian crowd," captain Tariq Ibrahim al-Tayib told the BBC after beating Comoros 3-0.
Bamako-based journalist Martin Vogl says Mali's government has a close relationship with Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and he enjoys a lot of support in the country.
After each goal at the game on Monday evening, the crowd shouted: "Gaddafi! Gaddafi," he said.
Mr Tayib said that several players had not been able to play because they were based in Benghazi, the main town held by forces fighting Col Gaddafi.
But he said there were no political divisions in the national football side.
"The whole team is for Muammar Gaddafi," he said.
"We dedicate this victory to the Libyan people who are suffering," he told Associated Press.
On Friday, thousands of Libyans took to the streets of Bamako to show their support for Libya's long-time leader - marching in protest to the French and US embassies against their involvement in the military campaign against Col Gaddafi.
France, the US and UK started bombing pro-Gaddafi forces earlier this month after a UN Security Council resolution was passed backing action to protect civilians.
Col Gaddafi had vowed to wipe out protesters who were demanding that he leave power after 42 years.
The intervention stopped pro-Gaddafi forces from attacking Benghazi.
|
b1ca020328002fc421b6b29ff7ad9fe7 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12893448 | Nigeria: A nation divided | Nigeria: A nation divided
Nigerians are trying to work out whether the double postponement of Saturday's legislative elections is part of an elaborate attempt to rig them, a brave move to block such attempts, sheer incompetence, or a mixture of all three.
Nigeria should be Africa's powerhouse - it is the continent's biggest oil producer and most populous country. But after decades of poor governance, most of its 160 million people are still mired in poverty. They are also divided along many lines - ethnic, religious, economic and political - and sometimes these tensions boil over into violence. Explore these maps to discover more.
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9c0fde830bb1bb01120319b8dd18482b | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13027762 | Egypt's army to replace Mubarak-era governors | Egypt's army to replace Mubarak-era governors
Egypt's interim military government has said it will remove some provincial governors appointed by former President Hosni Mubarak.
The move is an apparent concession to protesters who want Mr Mubarak and his allies tried for corruption.
It follows an army move on protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Saturday in which at least one person was killed.
The military has said it will use force to clear the square "to ensure life goes back to normal" in Egypt.
Dozens of people were also injured in the violence in Tahrir Square early on Saturday as the army tried to enforce an overnight curfew.
They suffered gunshot wounds but the army denies using live rounds.
The violence came after hundreds of thousands of people protested in Tahrir Square on Friday, demanding the prosecution of Mr Mubarak for corruption.
More protesters returned to the square later on Saturday and remained overnight.
On Sunday morning a few hundred protesters were in the square, which was sealed off with barbed wire and closed to the usually busy traffic of the beginning of Egypt's work week.
Tensions have been growing between the military, who took control after Mr Mubarak's downfall in February, and protesters calling for speedier reforms.
Divisions have also emerged within the protest movement that forced Mr Mubarak's resignation, says the BBC's Yolande Knell in Cairo.
Some are calling for the resignation of the head of the ruling military council, Field Marshal Mohamad Hussein Tantawi, who is Egypt's interim ruler.
He was defence minister under Mr Mubarak and was very close to the former president.
Others in the protest movement fear further antagonism with the military will cause more problems for Egypt ahead of elections and a transition to civilian rule planned for later in the year, our correspondent says.
The military's move to replace a number of Mubarak-appointed provincial governors was one of the demands of protesters.
Many among the protest movement believe the military figures now overseeing political transition are protecting Mr Mubarak and his allies.
On Saturday, a general said the army was "ready" to use force to clear the square and allow normal life to resume.
"Tahrir Square will be emptied of protesters with firmness and force to ensure life goes back to normal," Major General Adel Emarah, of the military council, told a news conference.
The army had maintained a generally neutral role in the earlier mass demonstrations.
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45334ca11891d88a0bcfee49675dfb53 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13040376 | Botswana country profile | Botswana country profile
Botswana, one of Africa's most stable countries, is the continent's longest continuous multi-party democracy. It is relatively free of corruption and has a good human rights record.
Sparsely populated, Botswana protects some of Africa's largest areas of wilderness. Safari-based tourism - tightly-controlled and often upmarket - is an important source of income.
Botswana is the world's largest producer of diamonds and the trade has transformed it into a middle-income nation.
The country has had its share of problems: It once had the world's highest rate of HIV-Aids infection. UN figures for 2014 suggest that for adults aged 15 to 49 the prevalence rate is 25%.
The country has one of Africa's most-advanced treatment programmes, however, and medicine for the virus is readily available.
President: Mokgweetsi Masisi
After serving as vice-president and education minister for four years under the presidency of Ian Khama, Mokgweetsi Masisi become the 5th president of Botswana in April 2018.
Like all of his predecessors, he represents the Botswana Democratic Party, which has also won a majority in every parliamentary election since independence.
Mr Masisi had a background in education before entering politics, and faces the task of diversifying an economy heavily dependent on the diamond trade.
Botswana has a long tradition of lively and unimpeded public debate, although opposition leaders have claimed that the government limits their ability to broadcast freely on the radio.
There is a "free and vigorous" press in cities and towns, says US-based NGO Freedom House.
State-run TV arrived with the launch of Botswana Television (BTV) in 2000. Satellite pay TV is available.
Some key dates in Botswana's history:
1867
- European gold prospectors arrive, mining begins. In 1885, British proclaim a protectorate called Bechuanaland.
1950
- Chief of the Ngwato, Seretse Khama, is deposed and exiled by the British.
1960
- Britain approves new constitution for Bechuanaland. Executive Council, Legislative Council and African Council are established. The following year, Seretse Khama is appointed to Executive Council and later founds the Bechuanaland Democratic Party (BDP), which is eventually renamed the Botswana Democratic Party. He becomes prime minister in 1965.
1966
- Bechuanaland is granted independence and becomes Republic of Botswana with Seretse Khama as president.
1967
- Diamonds discovered at Orapa.
1999-2008 -
Presidency of Festus Mogae - praised for diversifying Botswana's economy to reduce its dependence on diamonds.
2004
- HIV infection rate falls to 37.5%; Botswana no longer has the world's highest rate of infection.
2008
- Seretse Khama Ian Khama takes over as president.
2010
- Human rights group Survival International calls for a boycott of Botswanan diamonds, accusing the government of trying to force Basarwa bushmen away from their ancestral lands.
2014
- Gay rights group wins legal recognition.
|
fe196659095d55f0ff54e8dfb1b1479e | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13072857 | Burkina Faso profile - Timeline | Burkina Faso profile - Timeline
1896 -
Kingdoms now making up Burkina Faso become a French protectorate.
1919
- Upper Volta becomes separate constituent territory of French West Africa.
1958
- Upper Volta becomes autonomous republic within the French Community.
1960
- Upper Volta becomes independent with Maurice Yameogo as president.
1966
- Yameogo toppled in a military coup led by Sangoule Lamizana following unrest over a government austerity programme.
1970
- New constitution approved in a national referendum allows Lamizana to remain in power until 1975, when he was due to be replaced by an elected president; Gerard Ouedraogo appointed prime minister.
1974
- President Lamizana re-asserts authority by ousting Prime Minister Ouedraogo and dissolving parliament.
1977
- New multi-party constitution promulgated, allowing President Lamizana to remain in office. He wins 1978 presidential election.
1980
- President Lamizana is ousted in coup led by Saye Zerbo.
1982
- Saye Zerbo is overthrown in a coup led by Jean-Baptiste Ouedraogo following industrial unrest.
1983
- Capt Thomas Sankara takes power from Mr Ouedraogo in an internal power struggle. He adopts radical left-wing policies.
1984
- Upper Volta renamed Burkina Faso.
1987
- Thomas Sankara ousted and killed in a coup led by his close aide, Blaise Compaore.
1990
- Compaore introduces limited democratic reforms.
1991
- Compaore re-elected without opposition under a new constitution.
1992
- Compaore's Organisation for Popular Democracy-Labour Movement wins a majority of seats in the first multi-party parliamentary elections since 1978.
1998
- Compaore wins presidential election by a landslide.
1999
June - General strike over economic grievances and alleged human rights violations.
1999
August - State-owned mining company Soremib announces the closure of the country's biggest gold mine.
2000
December - Government agrees to set up UN-run body to monitor weapons imports after allegations that it has been involved in smuggling arms to rebels in Sierra Leone and Angola.
2004
April - Military tribunal tries 13 people accused of plotting coup against President Compaore in October 2003. Army captain Luther Ouali jailed for 10 years for masterminding plot.
2005
November - President Compaore wins a third straight term in office.
2006
December - Burkina Faso postpones a regional economic summit after deadly gun battles between police and soldiers in the capital.
2007
May - The ruling party wins a majority in parliamentary polls.
2008
April
-
Two-day general strike follows weeks of protests about high living costs and call for wage increases.
2009
April - Parliament passes a law requiring at least 30% of candidates put forward for election by political parties to be women.
2010
July - France, US issue travel warnings, citing the possibility of kidnappings by al-Qaeda operatives.
2010
November - Gold mine officially opened. Premier Tertius Zongo says it will earn substantial revenue for the country.
Presidential elections. President Compaore gains another term in office.
2011
March - Weeks of violent protests follow the death of a student in police custody.
2011
April - Soldiers, presidential guards mutiny over unpaid allowances. Thousands of people protest over food prices.
2011
July - Seven people are killed when government forces suppress mutiny in Burkina Faso's second city, Bobo Dioulasso.
2012
January - President Compaore sacks head of Burkina Faso's customs service, Ousmane Guiro, following the seizure of nearly $4m in two large suitcases traced by police to Mr Guiro.
2012
November - President Compaore mediates talks to resolve the crisis in Mali, where Islamists have taken control of the north.
2013
April - International Court of Justice in The Hague settles a decades-old border dispute between Niger and Burkina Faso.
2013
July - Thousands of demonstrators take to the streets over plans to create a Senate. Opposition leaders say the move will allow President Compaore to extend his rule.
2014
January - Demonstrators across the country oppose possible plans by President Compaore to prolong his rule.
Defectors from the ruling party found a new political movement to challenge the president.
2014
October - More mass protests against proposed constitutional changes to allow the president another five years in power turn into a mass uprising that drives President Compaore from office.
Military takes charge in move condemned by opposition, civil society groups, United States and African Union.
2014
November - Agreement reached on a framework for a transitional government to run the country until elections proposed for the end of next year. Political and military leaders choose former Foreign Minister Michel Kafando as interim president.
2015
April - Romanian security officer at a mine in the north is kidnapped. Islamist militants later claim to be holding him.
Interim parliament bars politicians allied to deposed president Blaise Compaore from running in the presidential and general elections planned for later in the year year.
2015
May - Work starts on exhuming what is believed to be the body of former leader Thomas Sankara ahead of DNA tests to determine the identity and cause of his death.
2015
September - Acting President Kafando faces down coup attempt by presidential guard allies of Blaise Compaore.
2015
November - Former prime minister Roch Marc Christian Kabore wins presidential election, comfortably beating former Economy and Finance Minister Zephirin Diabre.
2016
January - Islamist militants attack a hotel and cafe in the capital, Ouagadougou, killing 29 people, many of them foreigners.
2016
December - Islamists waving black flags storm a military base near the Mali border and kill 11 soldiers.
2017
February - Five Sahel countries agree to set up a joint counter-terrorism force.
2017
August - 18 people are killed in a terrorist attack on a Turkish restaurant in the capital Ougadougou.
2018
March - French embassy comes under attack. Sixteen people are killed, including eight gunmen.
2020
November - President Kabore wins re-election, although much of the north of the country is unable to vote because of the danger of jihadist attacks.
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914ff46486fe0635984160440fff9315 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13148483 | Cameroon profile - Timeline | Cameroon profile - Timeline
1520
- Portuguese set up sugar plantations and begin slave trade in Cameroon.
1600s
- Dutch take over slave trade from Portuguese.
1884
- Cameroon becomes the German colony of Kamerun.
1911 -
Under the Treaty of Fez - signed to settle the Agadir Crisis Franco-German conflict over Morocco - France cedes territories to the east and south to Cameroon.
1916
- British and French troops force Germans to leave Cameroon.
1919
- London Declaration divides Cameroon into French (80%) and British administrative zones (20%). The British zone is divided into Northern and Southern Cameroons.
1960
- French Cameroon granted independence and becomes the Republic of Cameroon with Ahidjo as president.
1961
- Britain's Cameroons colonies divide between Cameroon and Nigeria after a referendum. A large-scale insurrection mars the country's first years of independence until it is put down in 1963 with the help of French forces.
1966
- National Cameroonian Union formed out of six major parties and becomes the sole legal party.
1972
- Cameroon becomes a unitary state following a national referendum and is renamed the United Republic of Cameroon.
1982
- Prime Minister Paul Biya succeeds President Ahidjo, who resigns.
1983
- Mr Ahidjo goes into exile after President Biya accuses him of masterminding a coup.
1984
- President Biya elected to his first full term as president, changes the country's name to the Republic of Cameroon.
1986
- Discharge of poisonous gases from Lake Nyos kills about 1,700 people.
1992
October - Paul Biya re-elected in Cameroon's first multi-party presidential election.
1994
- Fighting between Cameroon and Nigeria flares up over disputed oil-rich Bakassa Peninsula.
1996
January-May - Further Cameroonian-Nigerian border clashes.
1996
May - Cameroon and Nigeria agree to UN mediation over Bakassa Peninsula.
1997
May - President Biya's party, the Cameroon National Democratic Movement (formerly the National Cameroonian Union), wins a majority of seats in parliament amid allegations of irregularities.
1997
October - President Biya re-elected in ballot boycotted by main opposition parties.
1998
- Cameroon classed as the most corrupt country in the world by business monitor Transparency International.
2000
June - World Bank approves funding for oil and pipeline project in Cameroon and Chad, despite strong criticism from environmental and human rights activists.
2000
October - Catholic Church in Cameroon denounces corruption, saying it has permeated all levels of society.
2001
June - Fears for Cameroon's environment increase, with Global Forest Watch reporting that 80% of the country's indigenous forests have been allocated for logging.
2001
October - Growing tension between government and separatists lobbying on behalf of country's five million English-speakers. Unrest results in three deaths, several arrests.
2002
October - Ruling by International Court of Justice gives sovereignty of oil-rich Bakassi Peninsula to Cameroon. But Nigeria, whose forces occupy the area, rejects the ruling.
2006
June - Nigeria agrees to withdraw its troops from the Bakassi Peninsula to settle its long-running border dispute with Cameroon.
The Paris Club of major lending nations agrees to cancel almost all of Cameroon's $3.5bn debt.
2007
November - Suspected Nigerian militants kill 21 Cameroon soldiers in Bakassi Peninsula.
2008
February - A nationwide transport strike in protest at fuel costs turns into a series of anti-government demonstrations in the capital, Yaounde, leaving at least 17 dead.
2008
April - Parliament amends the constitution to allow President Biya to run for a third term in 2011. The opposition condemns the move as a "constitutional coup".
2011
January - Cameroon secures Chinese loan to build deep sea port at Kribi, terminal of an oil pipeline from Chad.
2011
October- Paul Biya wins a landslide re-election as president, officially taking 78% of the vote. His opponents reject the result, alleging widespread fraud.
Boko Haram incursions
2013
February - A French family of seven is kidnapped by the Islamist group Boko Haram near the Nigerian border, and released two months later.
2014
January - A French priest kidnapped by Islamist gunmen in the far north of Cameroon in November is freed.
2014
May - Cameroon deploys about 1,000 troops to the border with northern Nigeria to counter a rising threat of incursions and kidnappings by Boko Haram.
2014
October - Twenty-seven hostages kidnapped by Boko Haram in Cameroon earlier in the year, including 10 Chinese workers and the wife of the deputy prime minister, are freed.
2015
January - Chad pledges military support for Cameroon against Boko Haram.
2016
November - Violent protests against the imposition of French in Anglophone parts of Cameroon.
2017
March-November - Unrest as Anglophone minority in north- and south-west regions continue protest action against perceived marginalisation.
2018
March - Two soldiers are killed in clashes with separatists in Anglophone areas, the latest of several deadly incidents in an insurgency related to the campaign for greater autonomy.
2018
October - President Paul Biya wins a seventh term in a vote marked by low turnout and voter intimidation.
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f3d7575d8cde17e763f3e03621dedf5d | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13164690 | Chad profile - Timeline | Chad profile - Timeline
1883-93
- Sudanese adventurer Rabih al-Zubayr conquers the kingdoms of Ouadai, Baguirmi and Kanem-Bornu, situated in what is now Chad.
1900
- France defeats al-Zubayr's army.
1913
- French conquest of Chad completed; Chad becomes a colony within French Equatorial Africa.
1946
- Chad becomes a French overseas territory with its own territorial parliament and representation in the French National Assembly.
1960
- Chad becomes independent with a southern Christian, Francois - later Ngarta - Tombalbaye, as president.
1963
- The banning of political parties triggers violent opposition in the Muslim north, led by the Chadian National Liberation Front, or Frolinat.
1966
- Northern revolt develops into a fully-fledged guerrilla war.
1973
- French troops help put down the northern revolt, but Frolinat continues guerrilla operations throughout the 1970s and 1980s with the help of weapons supplied by Libya.
1975
- Tombalbaye deposed and killed in coup led by another southern Christian, Felix Malloum.
1977
- Libya annexes the northern Chadian Aouzou strip.
1979
- Malloum forced to flee the country; a coalition government headed by a Muslim northerner, Goukouni Oueddei, assumes power.
1980
- Libya sends in troops to support Oueddei in his fight against the Army of the North, led by a former prime minister, Hissene Habre.
1981
- Libyan troops withdraw at Oueddei's request.
1982
- Habre seizes power. He is later accused of mass political killings during his rule.
1983
- The Organisation of African Unity recognises Habre's government, but Oueddei's forces continue resistance in the north with Libyan help.
1987
- The combined troops of Frolinat and the Chadian Government, with French and US assistance, force Libya out of the entire northern region apart from the Aouzou strip and parts of Tibesti.
1990
- Habre toppled by former ally, Idriss Deby.
1993
- National democracy conference sets up a transitional government with Deby as interim president and calls for free elections within a year.
1994
- International Court of Justice rejects Libyan claims on Aouzou and rules that Chad had sovereignty over the strip.
1996
- Deby wins Chad's first multi-party presidential election.
1997
- Deby's Patriotic Salvation Movement triumphs on legislative elections.
1998
- The Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad, led by Deby's former Defence Minister, Youssouf Togoimi, begins armed rebellion against the government.
2001
- Senegalese court rules that upholds ruling that former Chadian President Habre should not be made to stand trial in Senegal, where he is in exile. It decided that Senegal's courts do not have the jurisdiction to try Habre on torture charges during his eight years in power in Chad.
2001
May - Deby declared winner in controversial presidential poll.
2002
January - Government and Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad (MDJT) rebels sign Libyan-brokered peace deal intended to end three-year civil war.
2002
May - MDJT rebels and government forces clash in the far north; 64 are killed in the first outbreak of fighting since January's peace accord.
2003
January - Government signs peace deal with National Resistance Army (ANR) rebels, active in the east.
2003
October - Chad becomes an oil exporter with the opening of a pipeline connecting its oil fields with Cameroon.
2003
December - MDJT, government sign another peace accord. MDJT hardliners reject deal.
2004
January-February - Thousands of Sudanese refugees arrive in Chad to escape fighting in Darfur region of western Sudan.
2004
April-May - Chadian troops clash with pro-Sudanese government militias as fighting in Sudan's Darfur region spills over the border.
2005
June - Voters back constitutional changes which allow the president to stand for a third term in 2006.
2005
November - Former president, Hissene Habre, is arrested in Senegal over allegations of crimes against humanity.
2005
December - Rebels attack the town of Adre, near the Sudanese border. Chad accuses Sudan of being behind the incident.
2006
January - President Deby backs a law to reduce the amount of oil money spent on development. The move angers the World Bank, which suspends loans and orders the account used to collect oil revenues to be frozen.
2006
March - Government says an attempted military coup has been thwarted.
2006
April - Rebels seeking to oust President Deby battle government forces on the outskirts of the capital. Hundreds of people are killed. Chad cuts diplomatic ties with Sudan, accusing it of backing the rebels.
2006
May - President Deby is declared the winner of presidential elections. The main opposition parties boycott the poll.
2006
January-June - Thousands of refugees flee eastern areas as marauding Arab Janjaweed militia from Sudan's Darfur region penetrate deeper into Chad.
2006
July - Parliament approves the establishment of Chad's first state oil company, the Societe des Hydrocarbures du Tchad (SHT), which is expected to give Chad greater control over its energy assets.
2006
August - President Deby threatens to expel US energy giant Chevron and Malaysia's Petronas for failing to honour tax obligations, but relents after coming to an agreement with the companies.
2006
November - State of emergency imposed in eastern areas bordering Sudan's Darfur region after a spate of ethnic violence.
2006
December - Private newspapers stop publishing and several radio stations alter their programming to protest against state censorship under the state of emergency.
2007
February - UN refugee agency warns that violence against civilians in Chad could turn into a genocide.
2007
May - Chad and Sudan agree to stop conflict spilling across their borders but critics fear the agreement is unlikely to reduce the violence.
2007
August - Government, opposition agree to delay parliamentary elections by two years to 2009.
2007
September - UN Security Council authorises a UN-European Union peacekeeping force to protect civilians from violence spilling over from Darfur in neighbouring Sudan.
2007
October - Emergency declared along eastern border and in the desert north.
Scandal as French charity tries to airlift a group of 100 ''orphans'' to Europe in what Chad describes as a smuggling operation.
2007
December - Six French aid workers are convicted of child-trafficking and sentenced to eight years' hard labour, but are then repatriated to serve their sentences at home.
2008
January - European Union approves a peacekeeping force for Chad to protect refugees from violence in Darfur.
2008
February - Rebel offensive reaches the streets of N'Djamena, coming close to the presidential palace; France sends extra troops.
Rebels are repulsed in fighting that leaves more than 100 dead.
2008
March - The presidents of Chad and Sudan sign an accord in Senegal aimed at halting five years of hostilities between the two countries.
2008
May - Violence between Chadian and Sudanese militias flares up, leading to Sudan cutting diplomatic relations and Chad responding by closing its border and cutting economic ties.
2008
July - Security forces say they killed more than 70 followers of Muslim spiritual leader Ahmat Israel Bichara, who had threatened to launch a holy war, in fighting in southeast Chad.
2009
January - Eight rebel groups unite to form new rebel alliance, the Union of Resistance Forces (UFR), with Rally of Democratic Forces leader Timan Erdimi as its leader.
2009
March - European Union peacekeepers in eastern Chad hand over to a new, larger UN force known as Minurcat.
2009
May - UN Security Council condemns a major anti-government rebel offensive in the east.
2009
November - UN accuses Sudan of supporting URF rebels in Chad with arms and ammunition.
Six international aid groups, including the International Red Cross, suspend work in eastern Chad, citing risk of their staff being abducted or killed.
2010
February - President Deby and his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir, hold talks in Sudanese capital Khartoum, in their first meeting for six years; President al-Bashir says his country is ready for full normalisation of ties.
Chad and Sudan agree to deploy joint force to monitor situation along their shared border.
2010
March - Chad agrees to let UN peacekeeping force (Minurcat) to stay on for two months beyond the end of its mandate in mid-March, despite repeated criticism of its performance.
2010
April - Chad-Sudan border reopens seven years after Darfur conflict forced its closure.
2010
June - Voter registration closes ahead of parliamentary polls in November and presidential elections in April 2011.
2010
May - UN Security Council votes to withdraw Minurcat peacekeeping force from Chad and Central African Republic, deployed to protect displaced Chadians and refugees from Sudan's Darfur.
2010
July - Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir travels to Chad to attend a meeting of regional leaders - defying two warrants for his arrest issued by the International Criminal Court.
2010
October - Main political parties agree new timetable for postponed presidential and parliamentary polls.
Experts meet to discuss how to protect Lake Chad, which has shrunk dramatically over past 50 years.
2011
January - Chad marks 50 years of independence from France.
2011
February - Parliamentary elections.
2011
April - Presidential election, boycotted by opposition. President Idriss Deby is declared winner.
2011
July
-
Following a UN appeal, Senegal suspends the planned repatriation of former President Hissene Habre to his homeland, where he has been sentenced to death for crimes against humanity while president from 1982-1990.
2012
April - President Deby calls on countries neighbouring northern Nigeria to set up a joint military force to tackle Boko Haram militants. He warns the Islamists could destabilise the whole Lake Chad basin area.
2012
August - Senegal, African Union agree to set up special tribunal to try Chad's former leader Hissene Habre.
2012
September - Leader of rebel group FPR, Abdel Kader Baba Ladde, surrenders.
2013
Jan-March - Chadian troops help France drive al-Qaeda allies out of northern Mali.
2013
April - Chad agrees to send more troops to the Central African Republic to help stabilise it after a recent coup. Chadian forces have been present in the east of the country for months.
2013
May - Several people including an opposition MP and army officers are arrested in an alleged coup plot.
2013
July - Former leader Hissene Habre is arrested in Senegal. Investigators seek to put him on trial for crimes against humanity. Mr Habre went to Senegal after being ousted in 1990. Rights groups say 40,000 people were killed under his rule.
2013
October - London-based rights group Amnesty International accuses President Deby's government of killing and illegally detaining critics.
2014
February - Chad denies claims that its troops have violated their peacekeeping role in the Central African Republic by colluding with rebels.
At a meeting in London, Chad is one of four African countries which pledge to honour a ten-year moratorium on sales of ivory, as part of efforts to curb the illegal trade.
2014
March - Chad says it will withdraw its troops from the Central African Republic, in protest at allegations that they'd supported Muslim rebels.
2014
May - Chad announces it is closing its border with the strife-torn Central African Republic until further notice.
2014
July - France says it is to set up a new military operation in the Sahel region in an effort to stop the emergence of jihadist groups. The operation based in the Chadian capital N'Djamena will involve around 3,000 French troops, along with troops from Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Chad.
2015
February - Boko Haram attacks the Chadian shore of Lake Chad one month after the country pledges military support for Cameroon against the Islamist armed group.
Extraordinary African Chamber court orders Hissene Habre to stand trail on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. He is in custody in Senegal, where the court will sit in the first use of universal jurisdiction in Africa.
2015
March - Seven former security officers jailed for life, five in absentia, and another three to 20 years hard labour for torturing prisoners during the rule of Hissene Habre.
2015
July - Trial of Hissene Habre begins in Senegal.
2016
February - President Deby announces he will run for fifth term of office in April presidential election.
2016
May - Ex-leader Hissene Habre is found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to life in prison by an African Union-backed court in Senegal.
2017
February - President Deby announces that parliamentary elections due this year have been postponed, as the country is too short of money to hold them.
2017
May - Nine soldiers are killed in an attack by Boko Haram militants on a military post near the border with Nigeria.
2017
September - The rights group Amnesty International accuses the government of a brutal and growing crackdown on its critics.
2018
March - Public sector workers end a six-week strike started after the government slashed their salaries as part of an austerity drive.
2018
April - Parliament approves a new constitution expanding the president's powers.
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1665da5703381c39f842767e7698bf97 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13231758 | Comoros profile | Comoros profile
1527
- Portuguese cartographer Diego Ribero depicts the Comoros islands on a European map for the first time.
1886
- Comoros become a French protectorate.
1912
- Comoros formally become a French colony administered from Madagascar.
1942
- British forces invade the Comoros and Madagascar, toppling the pro-Vichy administration and handing the territories over to the Free French government of Charles de Gaulle.
1947
- Comoros become an overseas territory of France and are given representation in the French parliament.
1961
- Comoros given autonomy.
1974
- Three of the islands making up the Comoros vote for independence, but a fourth island, Mayotte, votes to stay with France.
1975
July - Comoros unilaterally declares independence, with Ahmed Abdallah as president.
1975
August - Abdallah deposed in coup assisted by French mercenary Colonel Bob Denard, and replaced by Prince Said Mohammed Jaffar.
1976
- Jaffar replaced by Ali Soilih, who tries to turn the country into a secular, socialist republic.
1978
- Soilih toppled and killed by mercenaries led by Denard, who restore Abdallah to power.
1989
- Abdallah assassinated by presidential guard under command of Denard, who stages coup. France intervenes, Denard leaves islands.
1990
- Said Mohamed Djohar elected president.
1995
- Djohar removed in a coup attempt led by Denard. French troops intervene, Denard surrenders.
1996
- Mohamed Abdulkarim Taki elected president, drafts a constitution which extends the authority of the president and establishes Islam as the basis of law.
1997
August - The islands of Anjouan and Moheli declare independence from the Comoros.
1997
September - Troops from the island of Grande Comore land in Anjouan to try to prevent its secession, but are routed.
1998
- President Taki dies, apparently of heart attack, and is replaced by an acting president, Tadjidine Ben Said Massounde, pending elections.
1999
April - Massounde signs an autonomy agreement in Madagascar, but the delegates from Anjouan and Moheli refuse to follow suit, saying they must first consult their people, thereby prompting violent demonstrations in Grande Comore against people of Anjouan origins.
1999
April - Massounde ousted in a coup led by the chief of the General Staff, Col Azali Assoumani.
2001
March - Azali Assoumani says the country will return to civilian rule in 2002 after new institutions of government had been set up. He also said he would not stand for election.
2001
August - A "military committee" seizes power in the breakaway island of Anjouan with aim of rejoining the Comoros.
2001
September - In Anjouan, a day-old takeover by Major Combo Ayouba is crushed by Major Mohamad Bacar, who leads the military government set up in August.
2001
November - Anjouan sees another failed coup attempt, this time by Colonel Said Abeid, who is against Bacar's reunification efforts.
2001
December - Voters back a new constitution that will keep the three islands as one country, but will grant each one greater autonomy.
2002
April - Colonel Mohamed Bacar elected leader of Anjouan and Mohamed Said Fazul elected leader of Moheli. Azali Assoumani named president of reunited Comoros.
2002
May - Mze Abdou Soule Elbak is elected island president of Grande Comore, also the base of Azali Assoumani, the overall ruler of the reunited Comoros.
2003
February - Security forces say they have foiled a coup plot against President Assoumani.
2003
December - Leaders of semi-autonomous islands reach a power-sharing deal, paving the way for elections
2004
March-April- Local elections for assemblies on the three semi-autonomous islands. Supporters of federal president, Azali Assoumani, win only 12 of 55 seats. Elections are held in April for 33-member national assembly - Assemblee de l'Union.
2004
June-July- National assembly opens. President Assoumani Azali names members of first federal government.
2005
January - First visit to France by a Comoran leader for 30 years.
2005
April and November - Mount Karthala, one of the world's largest active volcanos, spews ash over Grande Comore. Thousands of villagers flee.
2006 May
- Muslim cleric Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed Sambi, from Anjouan, wins federal presidential elections.
2007
May - The African Union sends troops to help keep the peace in June's elections after Anjouan president Mohamed Bacar refuses to stand down.
2007
June - Anjouan holds local elections in defiance of the federal government and the African Union. Mohamed Bacar is inaugurated as Anjouan's president.
2007
October - The African Union imposes travel sanctions on Anjouan leader Mohamed Bacar and other government officials and freezes their foreign assets while calling for fresh elections.
2007
November - AU begins naval blockade of Anjouan island.
2008
March - Comoran and AU troops land on Anjouan and recapture it. France takes renegade leader Mohamed Bacar into custody.
2009
March - The island of Mayotte votes to fully integrate with France. The Comoros government, which lays claim to the island, terms the referendum null and void.
2009
May - Voters in a referendum approve extension of president's term of office. The extension is opposed by the opposition and many residents of Moheli.
2009
June - Yemenia Airways plane crashes off Comoros, killing all but one of 153 people on board. Comoran expatriates demonstrate in France after suggestions plane may have been faulty.
2009
December - President Sambi's party wins landslide victory in parliamentary election.
2010
April - Libyan soldiers take up duty in the presidential guard as ''trainers''.
2010
June - Political leaders, after some delay, agree on elections timetable starting in November with primaries for the presidency.
2010
December - Ikililou Dhoinine wins presidential elections, and takes office in May 2011.
2013
April - Several people are detained, accused of plotting against the government.
2013
November - Comoros comes out on top in a survey of women's rights in 21 Arab League states. The poll by the Thomson Reuters Foundation surveyed 336 gender experts.
2015
February - Parliamentary elections.
2016
May - Azali Assoumani wins the presidency after a partial election re-run.
|
bba6db1368d1d74ab1e50cf58e3f0df1 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13251570 | Nato strike 'kills Saif al-Arab Gaddafi', Libya says | Nato strike 'kills Saif al-Arab Gaddafi', Libya says
A Nato air strike in Tripoli has killed the son of Col Muammar Gaddafi, a Libyan government spokesman has said.
Saif al-Arab and three of Col Gaddafi's grandchildren died at a villa in the Bab al-Aziziya compound, he said.
The Libyan leader himself was there at the time but was unharmed, he added. Nato said it had hit a military target but denied targeting individuals.
Gaddafi supporters rallied outside Western diplomatic missions in Tripoli, reportedly causing some damage.
The UK Foreign Office said it was investigating reports that the residence of its ambassador had been "destroyed". The UK has withdrawn diplomats from Tripoli.
There were also demonstrations outside the Italian and US missions, and the UN building said its offices were looted.
Earlier on Sunday, Nato acknowledged that there had been a strike in Tripoli late on Saturday.
The head of Nato's military operations in Libya, Lt Gen Charles Bouchard, said a "command-and-control" building had been hit, and that all targets for Nato attacks were "military in nature".
He added that he was aware of reports that members of Col Gaddafi's family had been killed, but made no further comment.
The BBC's Christian Fraser in Tripoli says that unusually the alliance issued its
statement
within hours of the strike, well aware of the political implications.
China and Russia within the Security Council have concerns that the alliance has gone beyond the mandate of the UN resolution authorising "all necessary measures" to protect civilians.
But UK Prime Minister David Cameron said Nato's targeting policy was "in line with the UN resolution".
"It is about preventing a loss of civilian life by targeting Gaddafi's war-making machine, so that is obviously tanks and guns, rocket launchers, but also command and control," he told the BBC.
Journalists taken to the site of the air strike said the building was extensively damaged and one unexploded bomb remained at the site.
Saif al-Arab, who had a lower profile than his brother Saif al-Islam, had been studying in Germany and returned to Libya recently.
Government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said: "The attack resulted in the martyrdom of brother Saif al-Arab Muammar Gaddafi, 29 years old, and three of the leader's grandchildren.
"The leader with his wife was there in the house with other friends and relatives. The leader himself is in good health." Col Gaddafi's wife was also unharmed, he said.
"This was a direct operation to assassinate the leader of this country," the spokesman added.
There has been no independent confirmation of the deaths.
Libyan rebels began a campaign in mid-February to end more than four decades of rule by Col Gaddafi. Since last month they have been aided by an international coalition acting on a UN mandate.
Mr Moussa said the attack was against international law.
"How is this helping in the protection of civilians? Mr Saif al-Arab was a civilian, a student," he said.
"He was playing and talking to his father and mother and his nieces and nephews and other visitors when he was attacked and killed."
An adopted daughter of Col Gaddafi's was killed in 1986 by a US air strike launched in response to alleged Libyan involvement in a Berlin bombing targeting US military personnel.
Mr Ibrahim accused the international coalition conducting strikes over Libya of not wanting peace.
"We have again and again declared that we are ready for negotiation, ready for road maps for peace, ready for political transitional periods, ready for elections, ready for a referendum.
"The West does not care to test our statements. They only care to rob us of our freedom, our wealth, which is oil, and our right to decide our future as Libyans."
Gunfire rang out in celebration in the eastern rebel stronghold of Benghazi following the reports that Saif al-Arab Gaddafi had been killed.
On Saturday, Nato officials said the alliance would not consider talks until government forces stopped attacks on civilians.
The vice-chairman of the rebel Transitional National Council also rejected the offer of negotiations.
He said the Libyan leader had "offered ceasefires only to continue violating basic human rights".
|
e6452ddbdd7528d9985b0b7c4cfd48b7 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13287216 | Ivory Coast country profile | Ivory Coast country profile
For more than three decades after its independence from France, Ivory Coast was known for its religious and ethnic harmony, as well as its well-developed economy.
The Western African country was hailed as a model of stability. But an armed rebellion in 2002 split the nation in two. Peace deals alternated with renewed violence as the country slowly edged its way towards a political resolution of the conflict.
Despite the instability, Ivory Coast is the world's largest exporter of cocoa beans, and its citizens enjoy a relatively high level of income compared to other countries in the region.
President : Alassane Ouattara
Alassane Ouattara has been in power since his predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo, was forcibly removed from office after refusing to accept Mr Ouattara's internationally recognised victory in the November 2010 presidential election.
In 2015, Mr Ouattara won a second five-year term with nearly 84% of the vote, in an election described as credible by US observers.
His re-election in 2020 was more controversial, with the opposition boycotting the poll in protest at what they called an unconstitutional third term.
A US-educated economist from the Muslim north, Mr Ouattara served as President Felix Houphouet-Boigny's last prime minister after a long career at the International Monetary Fund.
The government operates the outlets with the widest reach, including TV and radio networks and the main daily newspaper.
There are no privately-owned terrestrial TV stations.
The media are kept under close government scrutiny, says Reporters Without Borders.
Read
full media profile
Some key dates in the history of Ivory Coast:
1842
- France imposes protectorate over coastal zone and later colonizes Ivory Coast.
1944
- Felix Houphouet-Boigny, later to become Ivory Coast's first president, founds a union of African farmers, which develops into the inter-territorial African Democratic Rally and its Ivorian section, the Ivory Coast Democratic Party.
1958
- Ivory Coast becomes a republic within the French Community.
1960
- France grants independence under President Felix Houphouet-Boigny. He holds power until he dies in 1993.
1999
- President Henri Konan Bedie, in power since 1993, is overthrown in a military coup.
2000
- Laurent Gbagbo becomes president after a controversial election.
2002-2007
- Civil war effectively splits country into Muslim rebel-held north and government-controlled Christian south after renegade soldiers try to oust Mr Gbagbo.
2007
- Gbagbo and rebel chief Guillaume Soro of the New Forces sign an agreement to end the crisis.
2010
- Long-delayed presidential elections. Election commission declares Alassane Ouattara the winner of the run-off. Mr Gbagbo refuses to quit. Post-election violence leaves 3,000 people dead and 500,000 displaced.
2016
March - Al-Qaeda jihadists attack the beach resort of Grand Bassam, near Abidjan, killing 18 people.
Read
full timeline
|
5b2f86897741f321f8ac24f695a7060c | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13327013 | Malawi president says UK's expelled envoy insulted him | Malawi president says UK's expelled envoy insulted him
The president of Malawi has explained his decision to expel the British High Commissioner for the first time.
Fergus Cochrane-Dyet was told to leave after he was quoted in a leaked cable as saying President Bingu wa Mutharika does not tolerate criticism.
President Mutharika said he would not accept insults just because Britain was the country's largest aid donor.
Britain ordered the acting High Commissioner of Malawi to leave the UK in response to the move last month.
According to the diplomatic cable published by the local
Weekend Nation newspaper last month
, Mr Cochrane-Dyet described President Mutharika as "becoming ever more autocratic and intolerant of criticism".
He said local civil society activists were afraid after a campaign of threatening phone calls and said the government was restricting the freedom of the media and minorities.
Following the move, Foreign Secretary William Hague said: "It is a worrying sign that the Malawian government is expending its energies in this way, rather than focusing on the real and substantial challenges facing it, including the need for improved governance."
Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world, with an estimated 75% of the population living on less than $1 (60p) a day.
The UK recently expressed its disappointment with Malawi and reduced aid after the government purchased an extravagant presidential jet.
It is also among the countries which condemned a new law which gives ministers power to ban publications deemed not to be in the public interest.
|
ff753b5fb94be0aa7276fcc58b634757 | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13351397 | Ethiopia profile - Timeline | Ethiopia profile - Timeline
2nd century AD
- Kingdom of Axum becomes a regional trading power.
4th century
- Christianity becomes state religion.
1530-31
- Muslim leader Ahmad Gran conquers much of Ethiopia.
1818-68
- Lij Kasa conquers Amhara, Gojjam, Tigray and Shoa.
1855
- Kasa becomes Emperor Tewodros II.
1868
- Tewodros defeated by a British expeditionary force and commits suicide to avoid capture.
1872
- Tigrayan chieftain becomes Yohannes IV.
1889
- Yohannes IV killed fighting Muslim forces and is succeeded by the king of Shoa, who becomes Emperor Menelik II.
1889
- Menelik signs a friendship treaty with Italy, which Italy interprets as a protectorate. Ethiopia rejects this interpretation.
1889
- Addis Ababa becomes Ethiopia's capital.
1895
- Italy invades Ethiopia, but its forces are defeated the following year at Adwa. Italy recognises Ethiopia's independence but retains control over Eritrea.
1913
- Menelik dies and is succeeded by his grandson, Lij Iyasu.
1916
- Lij Iyasu deposed and is succeeded by Menelik's daughter, Zawditu, who rules through a regent, Ras Tafari Makonnen.
1930
- Zawditu dies and is succeeded by Ras Tafari Makonnen, who becomes Emperor Haile Selassie I.
1935
- Italy invades Ethiopia. Haile Selassie flees the following year.
1941
- British and Commonwealth troops aided by the Ethiopian resistance defeat the Italians, and restore Haile Selassie.
1952
- United Nations federates Eritrea with Ethiopia.
1962
- Haile Selassie annexes Eritrea, which becomes an Ethiopian province.
1963
- First conference of the Organisation of African Unity held in Addis Ababa.
1973-74
- An estimated 200,000 people die in Wallo province as a result of famine.
1974
- Haile Selassie overthrown in military coup, and dies in custody the following year
1977
- Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam emerges as leader of the Derg pro-Soviet military regime.
1977-79
- Thousands of government opponents die in "Red Terror" orchestrated by Col Mengistu; collectivisation of agriculture begins; Tigrayan People's Liberation Front launches war for regional autonomy.
1977
- Somalia invades Ethiopia's Ogaden region, and are defeated the following year with massive help from the Soviet Union and Cuba.
1984-85
- Worst famine in a decade strikes; Western food aid sent; thousands forcibly resettled from Eritrea and Tigre.
1987
- Col Mengistu elected president under a new constitution.
1991
- Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front captures Addis Ababa, forcing President Mengistu to flee the country.
1993
- Eritrea becomes independent following referendum.
1994
- New constitution divides Ethiopia into ethnically-based regions.
1995
- Meles Zenawi assumes post of prime minister.
1999-2000
- Ethiopian-Eritrean border war, which is eventually resolved in 2018.
2004
March - Start of resettlement programme to move more than two million people away from parched, over-worked highlands.
2005
April - First section of Axum obelisk, looted by Italy in 1937, is returned to Ethiopia from Rome.
2006
November - Ethiopian troops enter Somalia to oust al-Shabab Islamists controlling large parts of the country.
2006
December - Exiled former dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam is convicted, in absentia, of genocide at the end of a 12-year trial. He is later sentenced to death.
2012
August - Prime Minister Meles Zenawi dies. Succeeded by Foreign Minister Hailemariam Desalegn in September.
2016
October - Government declares state of emergency following months of violent anti-government protests.
2018
February - As anti-government protests continue, Prime Minister Desalegn resigns.
2018
April - Abiy Ahmed, an ethnic Oromo, wins over his challengers to become leader of the ruling EPRDF and therefore prime minister. He launches a comprehensive programme of political reform at home and diplomatic bridge-building abroad.
2018
May-June - Government releases thousands of political prisoners, and lifts state of emergency.
2018
July - Ethiopia and Eritrea declare their war is over as Ethiopia agrees to evacuate disputed territory.
2018
October - The government signs a peace deal with the separatist Ogaden National Liberation Front, ending a 34-year armed rebellion.
Parliament elects Sahle-Work Zewde as Ethiopia's first woman president, and first female head of state since Empress Zawditu (1928-1930).
2019
June - Army chief Seare Mekonnen and Amhara State Governor Ambachew Mekonnen killed while putting down coup attempt against the federal government.
2020
November - Tensions with Tigray region after a state election deemed unconstitutional escalate as the federal government sends in troops.
|
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