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5a4cc008b7c6ee2cc42cc51383213e88 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/trump-hammers-clueless-jay-powell-rails-against-crazy-inverted-yield-curve.html | 'CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!' — Trump rips 'clueless Jay Powell' and the Fed as the market slides | 'CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!' — Trump rips 'clueless Jay Powell' and the Fed as the market slides
VIDEO1:0301:03Trump: Our problem's with the Fed, not ChinaClosing Bell
President Donald Trump blamed the Federal Reserve for mounting fears about a slowing U.S. economy on Wednesday as he defended his administration's trade war with China.
In a pair of tweets, the president argued the central bank and its "clueless" chairman, Jay Powell, have dragged on the U.S. economy. He also blamed the Fed for the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury moving higher than the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury — an indicator of a possible recession that contributed to major U.S. stock indexes dropping about 3% on Wednesday.
"CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!" the president wrote. "We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!"
Trump also claimed "we are winning, big time" in his administration's trade conflict with the world's second-largest economy. "China is not our problem," but rather "our problem is with the Fed" and its interest rate policy, he said.
Trump tweet 1: We are winning, big time, against China. Companies & jobs are fleeing. Prices to us have not gone up, and in some cases, have come down. China is not our problem, though Hong Kong is not helping. Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut....
Trump tweet 2: ..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!
Trump has repeatedly pushed the Fed to cut its benchmark federal funds rate in recent months as the trade conflict with Beijing has, at times, contributed to stock market chaos and concerns about U.S. economic growth slowing. On Tuesday, he argued the Fed "raised too much" and "too fast" in hiking rates by a quarter of a percentage point seven different times in 2017 and 2018.
He said the central bank is "now too slow to cut" rates. Last month, the Fed decreased the target range on the federal funds rate to 2% to 2.25% — the first time it cut rates since the 2008 financial crisis. Trump nominated Powell for the job.
On Tuesday, Trump delayed new tariffs on some Chinese goods that were set to take effect on Sept. 1. They will now be implemented on Dec. 15. Stocks popped Tuesday following the announcement as investors grew more hopeful about the trade conflict easing or ending.
Trump told reporters "we're doing this for the Christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. consumers." The president and members of his administration have insisted China will bear the burden of the duties rather than American businesses and consumers.
The yield curve inversion sent fear back into stock markets Wednesday. The falling yields in longer-term U.S. Treasurys reflect a move into safe-haven assets as concerns grow about the economy's health.
The bond market phenomenon took place Wednesday as parts of the global economy showed signs of flagging. Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% between April and June, according to data released Wednesday.
The Trump administration is not actively working on plans to kick-start the U.S. economy, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.
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2e4bcaadd995424d1c851c2fd0b4e5a0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/nvidia-ceo-google-is-the-only-customer-with-silicon-at-scale.html | Nvidia CEO says Google is the company's only customer building its own silicon at scale | Nvidia CEO says Google is the company's only customer building its own silicon at scale
Jensen Huang, president and CEO of Nvidia, speaks during the company's event at the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas on Jan. 6, 2019.David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, has reason to be concerned about other chipmakers, like AMD.
But he's not worried about Nvidia's own big customers turning into competitors.
Amazon, Facebook, Google and Tesla are among the companies that buy Nvidia's graphics cards and have kicked off chip-development projects.
"There's really one I know of that have silicon that's really in production," Huang told CNBC in an interview on Thursday.
That company would be Google, he said.
"But our conversation with large customers is intensifying," Huang said. "We're talking to more large customers."
Nvidia was one of the major beneficiaries of the recent wave of interest in artificial intelligence. The company's stock multiplied more than ten-fold in less than three years as major companies rushed to buy chips that could smarten up their own applications, offer AI services to other companies -- or both. Inventory issues and a sudden drop in demand for cryptocurrency mining put a stop to the meteoric rise, but Nvidia continues to talk up the impact and market potential of AI, even as gaming remains its biggest source of revenue.
Google first announced its entrance into the data center AI chip-making world in 2016. As it came up with new versions, the web company pointed to performance advantages over graphics cards that were available at the time. Google hasn't started selling data center chips for training AI models to other companies, though. (Google has started offering various products that use its Edge tensor processing unit chips, but those chips aren't as powerful as the TPU chips for training AI models in Google's cloud.)
Similarly, Amazon uses its AI chips only in its own data centers to deliver services for third-party developers.
Traditional chipmakers pose a bigger threat.
"Today Nvidia dominates the data center market and probably has 90%+ share," Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie Research told CNBC in an email. "However, AMD has won some great engagements and will be increasing its share. I think it's reasonable to forecast a 20/80 split by the end the end of 2020."
Earlier on Thursday, Nvidia shares rose after the company reported quarterly results that topped expectations. But revenue in its data center business dropped 14% from the previous year.
WATCH: Nvidia earnings: 6 trades in chips
VIDEO2:4702:47Nvidia Earnings: 6 trades in chipsFast Money
Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech industry news.
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e9ed96ae60e9426c0a5b72a4d6462e50 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/beto-orourke-will-not-run-for-senate-in-texas-against-john-cornyn.html?&qsearchterm=o%20o%27rourke | Beto O'Rourke says he will not 'in any scenario' run for Senate in Texas in 2020 | Beto O'Rourke says he will not 'in any scenario' run for Senate in Texas in 2020
Beto O'Rourke, former Representative from Texas and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, speaks during the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees (AFSCME) Public Service Forum in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S., on Saturday, Aug. 3, 2019.Jacob Kepler | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Beto O'Rourke wants you to know he's a presidential candidate.
The former Democratic congressman returned to his hometown of El Paso, Texas, nearly two weeks ago to comfort a community reeling from a shooting at a Walmart that left 22 people dead. Calls have grown for him not to leave the state — and abandon his flagging bid to challenge President Donald Trump in favor of a run against Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
On Thursday, O'Rourke made it clear he has his eyes on nothing but the White House in 2020.
"I will not in any scenario run for the United States Senate. I'm running for president, I'm running for this country, I'm taking this fight directly to Donald Trump and that is what I'm exclusively focused on doing right now," O'Rourke told MSNBC on Thursday night.
O'Rourke put himself on the national map last year with a competitive challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. But he has struggled to break into the top tier of the presidential race: he currently polls sixth in an average of national polls of the Democratic primary field. Some Texas Democrats and one of the state's largest newspapers have pushed O'Rourke to try to unseat Cornyn in a state turning a shade bluer.
Democrats have lost several top Senate recruits to the presidential contest as they try to break the GOP's 53-47 hold on the chamber. Control of the Senate will help to determine not only what parts of the next president's agenda will pass, but also who serves on federal courts for decades to come.
VIDEO13:2813:28Beto fills in some blanksSpeakeasy with John Harwood
O'Rourke's decision to stay in the presidential race comes as Democrats criticize the GOP-held Senate for not taking up a House-passed universal gun background check bill meant to stem gun violence. After the shooting in El Paso and another massacre in Dayton, Ohio, only hours later, Democrats saw flipping control of the Senate as even more important as they try to pass gun restrictions.
On Thursday, O'Rourke downplayed the idea that he had the best chance to beat Cornyn in Texas, saying any one of at least seven Democrats running in the state's Senate primary would be a better lawmaker than Cornyn.
The former lawmaker is considered a strong candidate in no small part because of his fundraising prowess. He took in a staggering $79 million during his run against Cruz in last year's midterms. Contenders for the Democratic Senate nomination include M.J. Hegar, who lost a close House race to GOP Rep. John Carter last year, state Sen. Royce West and Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards.
O'Rourke's competitive race with Cruz — he lost by about 2.5 percentage points — and Democrats' two wins over House GOP incumbents last year have buoyed the party's hopes for more success in Texas in 2020. Three Republicans have recently retired from districts that could prove competitive in 2020.
Senate Democrats got one good piece of electoral news Thursday. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper dropped out of the presidential race and said he would give "serious thought" to challenging vulnerable GOP Sen. Cory Gardner next year.
O'Rourke used a speech in El Paso on Thursday to outline a new path for his campaign. The former congressman has called Trump a white supremacist, saying his alarmist rhetoric about immigrants helped to inspire the shooting targeting Latinos in El Paso.
Instead of joining his rivals to campaign in early voting states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, O'Rourke will instead travel to places affected by Trump's policies. He will start on Friday in Mississippi, where U.S. agents detained about 680 undocumented workers earlier this month.
On Friday morning, O'Rourke also released a new plan to combat white nationalism and gun violence.
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83bc726f6f359abbcfbe615ce842ac24 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/epsteins-ex-cellmate-cleared-after-probe-into-earlier-suicide-attempt-lawyer.html | Jeffrey Epstein's former cellmate cleared of wrongdoing after probe into earlier possible suicide attempt, lawyer says | Jeffrey Epstein's former cellmate cleared of wrongdoing after probe into earlier possible suicide attempt, lawyer says
U.S. financier Jeffrey Epstein appears in a photograph taken for the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services' sex offender registry March 28, 2017 and obtained by Reuters July 10, 2019.New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services | Handout | Reuters
An investigation into Jeffrey Epstein's possible suicide attempt last month — which happened less than three weeks before his death in a Manhattan jail cell — cleared the financier's former cellmate of wrongdoing, a lawyer told NBC News.
Nicholas Tartaglione, a former New York police officer who was arrested in December 2016 on charges of killing four men in a drug distribution conspiracy, was sharing a cell with Epstein in Manhattan's Metropolitan Correctional Center at the time Epstein was found semiconscious in the fetal position with marks on his neck.
Meanwhile, Epstein's death nearly a week ago was officially ruled a suicide Friday.
That July 23 incident got Epstein, a former friend of Presidents Bill Clinton and Donald Trump, moved to a so-called Special Housing Unit in the jail, and placed on suicide watch.
But it was not immediately clear whether Epstein had attempted to kill himself or if he had been attacked, as some sources had initially speculated might be the case, WNBC-TV reported.
Tartaglione's lawyer, Bruce Barket, told NBC that officials at the jailhouse said in an email that Tartaglione would face no charges or internal discipline now that the investigation had concluded.
"We've always maintained Nick did nothing wrong and that's clearly been borne out here by the jail itself," Barket told NBC. An official familiar with the case confirmed Barket's statement, NBC reported.
Barket told CNBC last month that Epstein and Tartaglione had "gotten along pretty well" as cellmates. Tartaglione has pleaded not guilty in his case.
The lawyer maintained from the start that "any suggestion that Mr. Tartaglione assault[ed] anyone is a complete fabrication," and claimed that the assault theory was being floated "to retaliate against Mr. Tartaglione for complaining to the court about the deplorable conditions at the MCC."
Barket did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on NBC's report that Tartaglione had been cleared. A lawyer for Epstein also did not immediately respond.
Epstein, 66, was arrested in July by FBI agents and charged by Manhattan federal prosecutors with sex trafficking of minors and sex trafficking conspiracy. He was accused of sexually abusing dozens of underage girls in his mansions in New York and Palm Beach, Florida, between 2002 and 2005. He pleaded not guilty to the charges, which could held a maximum possible sentence of 45 years behind bars.
Epstein was pronounced dead Saturday. An autopsy report concluded that he had broken bones in his neck, The Washington Post first reported.
VIDEO3:4703:47What happens next in the Jeffrey Epstein legal drama after his apparent suicideNews Videos
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4cc0693add7688cc4ca46ae402346b72 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/heres-what-powell-could-say-at-jackson-hole-to-soothe-the-markets.html | Here's what Powell could say at Jackson Hole to soothe the roller-coaster markets | Here's what Powell could say at Jackson Hole to soothe the roller-coaster markets
Esther George, John Williams and Jerome Powell, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 24, 2018.David A. Grogan | CNBC
If the markets get their way, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will use the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium to clarify whether the Fed is at the beginning of a serious rate-cutting cycle — or just intending to cut a few times as insurance against a possible downturn.
Powell speaks next Friday morning to kick off the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, and that event is the main focus of markets in the week ahead. The Fed also releases the minutes of its July meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is expected to detail discussions around its decision to cut interest rates last month for the first time in more than a decade.
In a briefing following that meeting, Powell discussed the quarter-point rate cut as a "midcycle adjustment," implying it was just considering a few cuts. That comment shook markets, and interest rates have plunged, along with global bond yields.
"What the market wants is clearly that he moves away from the 'midcycle adjustment' commentary and transitions toward an easing cycle," said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial.
VIDEO3:1003:10Rate cuts likely in September as yield curve flashes recession warningSquawk on the Street
Markets also will be watching any developments that reveal how trade talks between the U.S. and China are faring. President Donald Trump soothed some nerves in the past week when he delayed some of his latest tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump also said Thursday that discussions are continuing and that he expects to talk to President Xi Jinping soon, though he gave no details.
Powell will speak at a time when markets have been doubting the Fed's ability to head off a recession. Since he spoke on July 31, the stock market has been turbulent, with the S&P 500 losing nearly 3%, but the move in interest rates has been massive. The 10-year yield was at 2.07% that day and touched a low of 1.475% on Thursday before returning to 1.54% by late Friday.
The Treasury's 30-year bond made a historic move in the past week when its yield fell to a record low of 1.915% before rising back above 2% Friday. Also, the most widely watched part of the yield curve inverted, when the 2-year yield made the unusual move of temporarily rising above the 10-year yield. That would be taken as a sign of pending recession if it inverts again and stays that way for some time.
Stocks were lower for the week but reversed sharper losses by the end of the week. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% Friday at 2,888 but was down 1% for the week. The Dow rose 1.2% to 25,886 Friday but lost 1.5% for the week.
Dramatic moves in the world's sovereign yields came as global central banks cut interest rates, and there was talk from a European Central Bank official that the ECB could use a big stimulus program. That puts extra pressure on the Fed, which has emphasized that it could lower rates because of the weak global economy, the impact of trade wars and sluggish inflation. Rates all over the globe moved lower, and the benchmark German 10-year bund set a new low of negative 0.73 Friday morning.
"They don't want to signal they're worried about the economy because the economy is doing okay," said Pramod Atluri, fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group. "I think they can do it. It's going to be a tough communications challenge. The worry is when they try to toe the line, they end up being more hawkish than the market is looking for."
Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is looking for Powell to comment on the yield curve inversion and the market turbulence. "Is he more concerned about the outlook?" she said. "Has he become more concerned since the meeting, given the slowdown in global data, the increase of risks in the trade war and the recent significant moves in the market?"
The fed funds futures market is pricing in two to three rate cuts for the balance of the year. Since the Fed meeting, the market has become more concerned about the economy, with weaker global data from Europe and China, as well as a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods, announced by Trump.
"Is Powell going to stick to the midcycle adjustment? It's only been three weeks, but you throw in the sharp inversion of the yield curve and the extra consumer tariffs ... is he going to let the market whipsaw him? We've seen a big inversion and a sharp drop in rates since that meeting," said Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Strategists said the Fed tries to avoid making policy changes at the Jackson Hole meeting, but it was done during the financial crisis.
"Is it going to be an academic speech? Or is he going to pull a Ben Bernanke and use Jackson Hole as his FOMC venue? It was really [former Fed Chairman] Bernanke who most notably [used the meeting to discuss policy] when he laid out the case for QE twice," Boockvar said.
Powell could also have to defend the Fed's independence and reiterate that he will stay in his position until his term expires, particularly after Trump criticized Fed policy and called him "clueless" this week.
Besides the Fed, there are some economic reports of interest in the week ahead. Existing home sales data is announced Wednesday and PMI manufacturing and services data is released Thursday.
Krosby said she is watching developments with Huawei, since the temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with the blacklisted Chinese company end on Aug. 19.
"In terms of headlines this could be a market mover because of Huawei's importance to Beijing. If there is an extension from the administration it could suggest an improvement in the D.C./Beijing dialogue, no doubt a positive headline," she said, in an email. "We could find out what happens from a presidential tweet or from the Department of Commerce, which has jurisdiction over the issue."
Monday
Deadline for temporary licenses for U.S. firms doing business with Huawei
Tuesday
8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing
6:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles
Wednesday
10:00 a.m. Existing home sales
2:00 p.m. FOMC minutes
Thursday
8:30 a.m. Initial claims
9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m. Services PMI
Friday
10:00 a.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole
All times Eastern time
Correction: This article has been revised to correct the spelling of Pramod Atluri's name.
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e00c633c7727a0a9fe562b0f8052ce2c | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/ray-dalio-china-could-weaponize-us-treasury-holdings-in-trade-war.html | Ray Dalio says he wouldn't rule out China weaponizing its massive US Treasury holdings | Ray Dalio says he wouldn't rule out China weaponizing its massive US Treasury holdings
Ray Dalio, founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, speaking at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 22, 2019.Adam Galica | CNBC
Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio said he wouldn't rule out China using its Treasury holdings to gain an upper hand against the U.S. in the trade war — a view that contrasts with many other observers.
"We have a debtor-creditor relationship, not just a trade relationship. And (that) can be a dangerous thing," Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, told CNBC's "Managing Asia" in Singapore.
When repeatedly pressed on whether Beijing could weaponize its ownership of U.S. Treasurys, Dalio responded: "I wouldn't rule it out."
Analysts and investors have said that amid escalating trade conflict between the world's two largest economies, China could resort to the so-called nuclear option to hurt the U.S.: Selling its large Treasury holdings. But many dismissed that suggestion, saying such a move will harm China too.
China was the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys until June, when it was surpassed by Japan. According to data by the U.S. Treasury department, China held $1.11 trillion of U.S. debt in June.
VIDEO2:1602:16Expect more currency wars over the next three years: Ray DalioSquawk Box Asia
Dalio argued that given the uncertainties surrounding the trade fight between Washington and Beijing, it's difficult to anticipate the next steps either side would take. And as the conflict worsens, the two economic giants could start looking to inflict "maximum harm" on each other.
"What we worry about — and I think it's a reality — is that in this new world of adversely affecting each other economically and hurting each other's businesses, each tries to think: 'Now, how can I do the other the maximum harm?' And the Chinese are clever at doing that," he told CNBC's Christine Tan.
Since the start of the trade war last year, U.S. President Donald Trump has slapped 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods — and additional levies are scheduled for September and December. The U.S. has also made it more difficult for Chinese firms, such as Huawei, to do business with American firms. Washington also labelled China a currency manipulator.
China, for its part, increased tariffs on billions of dollars of American goods in retaliation, and stopped buying U.S. agriculture products.
VIDEO2:5602:5640% chance of a US recession in the next two years: Ray DalioSquawk Box Asia
Experts frequently cite the tariff fight between Washington and Beijing as the biggest worry in the outlook for the global economy and financial markets. Growth has slowed down globally, and further retaliatory actions from the U.S. and China could push the world economy into a recession, economists have warned.
Dalio agreed that the U.S.-China fight is "negative" for the world.
"I'm not able to call who's stronger," said Dalio. "But I think it's a little scary that ... as we let our imaginations go ... we could see the various harms that these countries can do to each other in the process, and what that'll mean for the world economy."
WATCH: How China could use its massive US debt holdings as a trade war weapon
VIDEO4:2904:29How China could use its massive US debt holdings as a trade war weaponTrade
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d626cbe26abcc4a22c7b90dec1d63c05 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-midday-general-electric-nvidia-dillards-more.html | Stocks making the biggest moves midday: General Electric, Nvidia, Dillard's & more | Stocks making the biggest moves midday: General Electric, Nvidia, Dillard's & more
Traders work before the closing bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 14, 2019 in New York City.JOHANNES EISELE | AFP | Getty Images
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading on Friday:
General Electric — Shares of General Electric soared 9.7% after analysts and the company's CEO stood behind the stock following a report alleging accounting issues. GE's stock tumbled Thursday after Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos called the company's accounting "a bigger fraud than Enron," but CEO Larry Culp bought nearly $2 million worth of stock to signal his confidence and several analysts pushed back against Markopolos conclusions.
Nvidia — Nvidia's stock jumped 7.3% after it reported better-than-expected fiscal-second quarter earnings. The chip maker earned $1.24 per share, excluding certain items, versus $1.15 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Its revenue also beat estimates.
Dillard's – Shares of Dillard's fell 2.3% after the retailer reported an adjusted quarterly loss of $1.74 per share, wider than the 70 cent loss estimated by Wall Street. The retailer's revenue was also slightly below forecasts, with comparable store sales falling 1%.
Bank stocks — Bank stocks rallied along with the rise in bond yields. The group took a big hit earlier this week as bond yields hit their historic lows and a key part of the yield curve briefly inverted. They came under pressure because falling rates would it harder to make a profit lending money. Citigroup rose more than 3.5%, while Bank of America climbed 3% and J.P. Morgan gained 2.4%.
Deere — Shares of Deere rose 3.8% despite the machinery company missing analyst expectations for earnings and revenue and lowering its full year guidance. The tractor manufacturer reported adjusted earnings of $2.71 per share on $8.97 billion in revenue, missing Wall Street's estimates of $2.85 per share and $9.39 billion in revenue, according to Refinitiv. The stock was already down 13% for the month, and Rob Wertheimer of Melius Research told CNBC the lowered guidance "wasn't too bad."
Tapestry — Shares of Tapestry rebounded on Friday, gaining 2.6% after hitting 52-week lows the day before. Bernstein maintained its outperform rating on the stock, lowering its near-term earnings estimates for the company by 13% but saying "valuation with a long-term view remains compelling, if the brands are not broken."
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169cfbe0211283f7d243654cbf73a5b3 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/17/arctic-wildfires-emit-more-co2-in-june-than-sweden-does-in-an-entire-year.html | Massive Arctic wildfires emitted more CO2 in June than Sweden does in an entire year | Massive Arctic wildfires emitted more CO2 in June than Sweden does in an entire year
Smoke billows from a fire outside Ljusdal, Sweden in July, 2018. Sweden is fighting its most serious wildfires in decades, including blazes above the Arctic Circle, prompting the government to seek help from the military, hundreds of volunteers and other European nations.Maja Suslin | TT | AP
Smoke from massive fires in the Arctic has blanketed nearby cities and could travel thousands of kilometers to other parts of the world, raising concerns among scientists about poor air quality and exacerbated global warming.
The ongoing Arctic fires this year have been particularly severe in Siberia and Alaska. In Russia, flames engulfed more than 7 million acres in Siberia and beyond in August, forcing President Vladimir Putin to send military transport planes and helicopters across the country to put out the fires.
In Alaska, more than 2.4 million acres have burned over the past three months, inundating nearby cities with smoke and forcing temporary hospitals to open for clean air access.
Now, a cloud of smoke and soot bigger than the European Union is moving from Siberia into the Arctic, according to the World Meteorological Organization. It is forecast to reach Alaska, where fires have scorched an area larger than the wildfire damage in California last year.
Scientists say the smoke plumes, filled with megatons of tiny, harmful particles, could travel to other areas of the world and cause serious respiratory problems for people.
"What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic," said Liz Hoy, a researcher at NASA's space flight center, which has tracked the blazes from satellites.
"This year, it's an incredible amount of burning, and the smoke affects air quality thousands of miles away from the Arctic region. The warming there will translate to the East Coast [of the U.S.], contribute to sea level rise and affect people all over."
The fires in northern Russia, Alaska, Greenland and Canada released a record 50 megatons of CO2 in June — equivalent to Sweden's total annual emissions and more than the past eight Junes combined — and 79 megatons in July, according to NASA.
Preliminary data also shows that July 2019, the hottest month on record, has also registered the highest CO2 in the last 10 years.
In Russia, NASA satellite imagery shows a thick smoke plume from fires that extends across more than 4.5 million square kilometers of central and northern Asia, blocking sunlight and impacting air quality.
"People ask, how do wildfires in Alaska and Siberia impact me back in Seattle or Minneapolis? The immediate concern is the transport of smoke, which travels thousands of miles," said Brian Brettschneider, a climatologist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
"That affects people far removed from where these fires are. It affects air travel, and the carbon emissions from fires burning negatively impacts everyone."
Nearly 400 fires have burned in Alaska so far in 2019, forcing residents in Fairbanks to open up hospitals for clean air, and lock themselves in their homes during the hot summer months.
"In Fairbanks, we had smoke thick enough to substantially reduce visibility for 25 days. That's a lot of smoke. Some of the worst days were pretty choking," said Rick Tolman, a researcher who lives in Fairbanks.
"It's a big concern for people with existing respiratory issues," he continued. "The smoke from these fires travels so far and can produce significant air quality problems in areas far from the fires. With the intensity of the fires increasing, it's wreaking havoc."
Smoke and soot from the wildfires also absorbs solar energy, further warming the earth. The Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the world. In August, for instance, record ice melt in Greenland over one day irreversibly raised sea levels by 0.1 millimeters across the world.
Mark Parrington, a scientist in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, said that higher than usual temperatures and dry soil has made great conditions for unusually intense, hot blazes. The latitude, intensity and duration of the fires have set them apart from what is typically observed in the region.
"The fires burn for so long. Over the last two months, it's unusual to see this scale. Generally, fires in Alaska last for a few days to two weeks. But this is now two months of burning," Parrington said.
The worst fires move north of forests and impact Arctic tundra and permafrost layers, which accumulate organic matter over thousands of years, Parrington said. When those areas are burned, it releases thousands of years worth of carbon and methane into the atmosphere.
"From a climate point of view, these fires are exponentially worse," Brettschneider said.
Besides health and environmental concerns, there's an economic toll too.
The higher frequency of fires, and exponential warming in the Arctic, will contribute to sea level rise, which threatens to destroy property value in coastal regions, displace residents and impact global markets.
In Alaska this year, over $150 million was spent on suppression and protection efforts against wildfires burning closer to populated areas, according to researchers.
Typically resources are not used to combat wildfires, since they are a natural part of the boreal ecosystem. However, this year's unprecedented wildfire season has changed that, as fires burn hotter, more frequently, and deeper into the ground, destroying trees and their ability to reproduce.
"It is important to understand that fires aren't only a result of climate change, but also are impacting climate change," said Anton Beneslavsky, a Greenpeace Russia activist.
"If we talk about mitigating climate change, we need to urgently pay attention to the wildfire issue," he said.
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2d0cf48f34b1bc9f95d55f387b502455 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/elton-john-defends-harry-and-meghans-use-of-private-jets.html | Elton John defends Harry and Meghan's use of private jets | Elton John defends Harry and Meghan's use of private jets
Sir Elton John (right) performs at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.Kyle Gustafson | For The Washington Post | Getty Images
Singer Elton John has waded into a furor about the Duke and Duchess of Sussex's use of private jets, calling on the British media to stop what he called "assassinations" of the couple's characters.
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle have been criticized in recent weeks after claims they had taken four private jets in the space of 11 days, despite their championing of environmental causes.
One of the trips publicized by the media was to Elton John's home in Nice to celebrate the Duchess of Sussex's birthday.
The singer took to Instagram to defend the royal couple Monday, saying he was "deeply distressed" by what he called Monday's "distorted and malicious account in the press surrounding the Duke and Duchess of Sussex's private stay at my home in Nice last week."
He said he felt a duty to protect Harry and his family because of his close friendship with the late Princess Diana, who died from injuries sustained during a car crash in Paris in 1997. Paparazzi pursuing the car were widely blamed for the accident and Diana's death, although an investigation later found that the driver of the car had well over the legal level of alcohol in his blood.
"I feel a profound sense of obligation to protect Harry and his family from the unnecessary press intrusion that contributed to Diana's untimely death," Elton John said, calling on the media to "cease these relentless and untrue assassinations on their character that are spuriously crafted on an almost daily basis."
He said he and his husband, David Furnish, wanted the young family to have a private holiday "inside the safety and tranquility of our home."
"To maintain a high level of much-needed protection, we provided them with a private jet flight," he said.
WPA Pool | Getty
Harry and Meghan have promoted their charitable work for various causes, the environment being one of them. In a post on the couple's own Instagram account in July, the prince was quoted as saying that "only now are we starting to notice and understand the damage that we've been causing. With nearly 7.7 billion people inhabiting this Earth, every choice, every footprint, every action makes a difference."
The couple have also said they will only have two children as part of their contribution to helping the environment.
Elton John said that to support the royals' commitment to the environment, he had ensured their flight was carbon neutral by making a contribution to a company that allows people to offset their carbon emissions with contributions to various carbon reduction projects, like tree planting and reforestation.
Buckingham Palace has reportedly declined to comment on the row.
There is an almost obsessive coverage of the royal family in the U.K. but relations between the press and the royals are tense given instances of intrusion into private lives. Prince Harry and his brother William are known to dislike the press, yet there is an awareness and acknowledgement in the family that it also needs the media to promote its work in, and value to, modern society.
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139c51cfda12907d73f3e771edffa668 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/here-are-the-10-best-places-to-invest-in-a-us-vacation-home.html | Dreaming of a US vacation home? Here are the 10 best places to invest | Dreaming of a US vacation home? Here are the 10 best places to invest
Thomas Barwick | Photographer's Choice RF | Getty Images
What do Americans in the market for a vacation home want?
Appalachian mountain views and Florida sunshine, it turns out.
Vacation rental management website Vacasa has rolled out its second annual report highlighting the best U.S. destinations to invest in a vacation rental property. It analyzed home sales and rental data in vacation areas around the country. Vacasa also found that 65% of people in the market for a vacation home haven't decided where to buy.
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The report, called the Top 25 Best Places to Buy a Vacation Home, provides shoppers with data such as median home cost and capitalization rate, which is the rate of potential return on a real estate investment.
"Buying a vacation rental property requires more consideration than simply where you'd enjoy owning a vacation home that you could visit a few times a year," said Shaun Greer, Vacasa's senior director of real estate.
"If you are seeking to maximize your investment, you'll need to familiarize yourself with markets that have a strong rate of return, consistently high occupancy rates and local regulations," Greer added in a statement.
Appalachia's Great Smoky Mountains are home to two of Vacasa's top 10 finishers, while Florida snagged three spots. The list also has surprise Western finalists in California and Montana.
Here's a look at the top 10, along with the median sale price and the cap rate for each.
Source: Vacasa
Snowy scene near Big Sky, Montana.L. Toshio Kishiyama | Moment | Getty Images
Known as a gateway to Yellowstone National Park, Big Sky was settled by ranchers in the late 1890s and began attracting attention as a ski destination in the early 1970s, thanks to annual snowfall of about 400 inches.
Now a year-round destination offering everything from golf and fly fishing to snowshoeing and dogsledding, the town is split into three sections: Canyon, Meadow and Mountain Village, which is home to Big Sky Resort.
The town, whose population of 2,500 can double during the high season, lies in the shadow of 11,166-foot Lone Mountain, 47 miles north of Yellowstone and 55 miles south of Bozeman. Bozeman is connected nonstop to 17 major U.S. cities by seven airlines. For more, visit www.visitbigsky.com.
Median home sale price: $585,000Capitalization rate: 5.4%
Fort Bragg, California.Stefan Nickel / EyeEm | EyeEm | Getty Images
This Pacific coast community, an official California Historical Landmark about 3½ hours north of San Francisco by car, was founded as a military garrison after the Civil War and became a tourist magnet thanks to its spectacular ocean views.
Glass Beach — strewn with colored "stones" worn down from decades' worth of old bottles, headlights and appliances once thrown off nearby cliffs — is one of its most iconic attractions. Other draws in this town of some 7,530 inhabitants include the 7-mile Coastal Trail, the quirky Larry Spring Museum of Common Sense Physics and the 134-year-old scenic Skunk Train railway. For more, see Visitfortbraggca.com.
Median home sale price: $509,500Capitalization rate: 5.9%
Duval Street, Key West, Florida.Glowimages | Glowimages | Getty Images
The southernmost incorporated place in the continental U.S., this quirky island city of 25,500 "Conchs," as locals call themselves, lies at the end of the 100-mile-long Florida Keys archipelago and has long attracted writers, artists and other bohemians.
Ernest Hemingway lived and wrote there in the 1930s, and his house remains a top tourist attraction. Thanks to Key West's longtime "live and let live" attitudes, the town has also been a popular LGBT destination for decades (it elected its first openly gay mayor in 1983.)
Cruise vacationers and full and part-time residents alike love the city's abundant sunshine, fishing and water sports, nightlife and — key for vacation home hunters — 19th century wooden architecture. Five airlines serve the island's international airport. For more, visit Fla-keys.com/key-west/ and www.keywestchamber.org.
Median home sale price: $763,109Capitalization rate: 6.1%
The skyline of Myrtle Beach on the Grand Strand.John Coletti | Photolibrary | Getty Images
Myrtle Beach is the crown jewel of South Carolina's 60-mile long Grand Strand coast. This small city — home to just under 34,000 residents — punches above its weight when it comes to tourism, drawing about 14 million visitors annually.
Those vacationers come not only for the beach but for more than 100 golf courses, a dozen or so live theater venues and a 1.2-mile oceanfront boardwalk and promenade presided over by the 187-foot-tall SkyWheel.
Flying in is easy: Myrtle Beach International Airport offers nonstop service from 50 U.S. and Canadian cities via nine carriers. Crave less honky-tonk and more Southern charm? Genteel, history-rich Charleston is just a 2½-hour drive south. For more, go to Visitmyrtlebeach.com.
Median home sale price: $213,950Capitalization rate: 6.2%
Bird's eye view of Dauphin Island, Alabama.George Dodd / EyeEm | EyeEm | Getty Images
The "Sunset Capital of Alabama" lies on a narrow, 14-mile barrier island off the state's Gulf of Mexico coast. A protected bird sanctuary in its entirety, Dauphin Island is also home to some 1,300 permanent human residents. Attractions include the Audubon Bird Sanctuary, the Dauphin Island Sea Lab, historic Fort Gaines, white sand beaches, public golf courses, marinas and parks. The island is just under 30 miles from Mobile and its airport. For more, visit the town's tourism website at Townofdauphinisland.org/visitors.
Median home sale price: $345,281Capitalization rate: 6.7%
Residences in Kissimmee, Florida.Gina Pricope | Moment | Getty Images
Did you dream of living in Walt Disney World as a kid? Still do? Well, buying in Kissimmee, 30 minutes southeast by car on the northwest shore of Lake Tohopekaliga, could be the next best thing. Part of the Orlando metro area, the city is home to about 71,000 residents and is easily accessible by air, rail, bus and auto.
Beyond Disney, nearby theme park attractions include SeaWorld, Legoland and Universal Orlando Resort, which just announced a major expansion. (Note: Both CNBC and Universal Orlando Resort are owned by NBCUniversal, a subsidiary of Comcast.) Visitors can also enjoy such Florida attractions as the Kennedy Space Center, GatorLand, golfing and swamp airboat rides. For more, go to Experiencekissimmee.com.
Median home sale price: $264,863Capitalization rate: 7.2%
Early morning mountains in Whittier, North Carolina.Carolyn_Davies | iStock | Getty Images
Tucked between the Great Smoky Mountains and the Nantahala National Forest, tiny Whittier, North Carolina, is home to just about 5,600 people. An hour's drive west of hipster arts haven Asheville, the small town is close to big vacation attractions, including the activity-rich Eastern Cherokee Reservation and its Harrah's casino; Dollywood in nearby Pigeon Forge, Tennessee; and gem mining, hunting, fly fishing and rafting venues. Too small for a tourism board, Whittier and its surroundings can be found on North Carolina's state tourism website at Visitnc.com.
Median home sale price: $178,000Capitalization rate: 7.9%
Lake in Davenport, Florida.rustycanuck | iStock | Getty Images
Another small city, Davenport has boomed almost 200% in a decade, growing from just under 2,900 inhabitants to about 5,400 today. An hour's drive southwest of Orlando International Airport, Davenport is just far away enough to escape the theme park crowds and just close enough that residents can easily avail themselves when they feel like it. Top attractions include the True Blue Winery, Providence Gold Club and Lake Davenport itself. The city's website can be found at MyDavenport.org.
Median home sale price: $255,390Capitalization rate: 8.4%
Hitting the slopes in Killington, Vermont.Christian Aslund | Lonely Planet Images | Getty Images
Five hours north of New York by car and a 3½-hour drive from Boston, Killington, Vermont, is best known as the largest ski area in the East. Home to just 800 or so permanent residents, the town welcomes thousands more each winter for snowy sports. But summertime activities abound, too. The popular Appalachian Trail for hiking, for example, cuts right through Killington. Golf, mountain biking, ATV rides, concerts, shopping and cuisine are other popular pursuits. Burlington, Vermont, has the closest major airport. For more, visit Killington.com.
Median home sale price: $208,828Capitalization rate: 9.3%
View over Sevierville, Tennesee and neighboring Pigeon Forge, home to the Dollywood theme park.Kruck20 | iStock | Getty Images
You might describe Sevierville, Tennessee, and nearby Pigeon Forge as a one-woman tourism miracle, all thanks to native daughter Dolly Parton — singer, actress and entrepreneur.
This scenic corner of the state had been a popular destination since Great Smoky Mountains National Park was established in the 1930s, but things really started taking off in 1986 when Parton bought an interest in a local theme park and rebranded it Dollywood.
The resort and theme park is now Tennessee's biggest attraction, drawing almost 3 million annually. This visitor renaissance has resulted in a boom in new attractions and activities throughout the region, although the most enduring and enigmatic draw remains the haunting Great Smoky landscape. For more information, go to VisitSevierville.com.
Median home sale price: $239,976Capitalization rate: 10.3%
(CNBC's John Schoen contributed to this report.)
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082679d8654c5ad99191a2a84b0914ff | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/investing-in-the-strange-negative-yield-world-its-very-hard-to-wrap-your-arms-around.html | Investing in the strange negative yield world — 'It's very hard to wrap your arms around' | Investing in the strange negative yield world — 'It's very hard to wrap your arms around'
The bond market has entered a financial twilight zone, and at this point, there doesn't seem to be a smooth way out.
For the last several weeks, investors have been watching a swift move lower in global bond yields — with the amount of negative yielding debt increasing to the point where it now equals nearly a third of tradeable bonds worldwide, according to J.P. Morgan.
Investors have jumped into the safety of bonds, amid worries the global economy is slowing and that the trade wars will take a bigger toll on growth. Yields are also cascading lower, as global central banks rush to cut interest rates, a factor feeding the downward spiral in yields.
VIDEO18:2918:29Ron Baron on the economy, negative interest rates, Tesla and moreSquawk Box
That doesn't mean U.S. Treasury yields will also go negative with the other $15 trillion in negative yielding debt. But some strategists say they could, and at the very least Treasurys should continue to see new low rates as European and other negative yields hit new lows. Yields move opposite price, so in an extremely low yield or negative world, investors hope for price appreciation on instruments where they had once looked for yield.
"It's very depressing...Just think about it as a saver or investor," said Michael Schumacher, director rates at Wells Fargo. "It's very hard to wrap your arms around the idea of negative yields. It doesn't really sit well...It's terrible for the financial system. Look how European banks have done for the last six, seven years—very poorly."
As rates drop around the world, the U.S. has become an even more attractive market, for the remaining yield it has and the fact the economy is growing. Contrast that to Germany where its economy is shrinking and the 10-year bund is yielding a negative 0.69%, compared to the U.S. 10-year yield, at 1.54%.
Strategists say the reversal of the bond market trade could be disorderly and painful if it happens quickly.
J.P. Morgan strategists point out that four countries — Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and Finland — now have negative yields across their full spectrum of rates.
"In our conversations with clients, the experiments of central banks with negative rates are viewed more as a policy mistake rather than stimulus and create a sense of an abnormal and uncertain environment that damages not only banks but also consumer and business confidence," the J.P. Morgan strategists wrote.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates again in September and possibly later, triggering lower interest rates around the world. The differentials between global interest rates is putting pressure on currency moves.
"I think the momentum trade is basically saying to the Fed: 'You're falling behind the curve.' The Fed does need to keep up with what's going on in global markets. The one barometer we have to look at, to make it simple, is the dollar. The stronger the dollar gets, the more negative it is for the global economy," said Jim Caron, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. "A lot of the world's debt is in dollars. The slower the Fed goes, the stronger the dollar gets."
Caron said investors continue to buy bonds for performance, and they are finding it as rates continue to drop. "People are getting socialized to lower yields...It's bizarre," said Caron. "It could definitely stay like that for awhile."
VIDEO3:0103:01PGIM Fixed Income: We can't rule out negative rates in the USSquawk Box Asia
Positioning in the bond market has become so extreme that the rules are being thrown out, and the spiral lower is feeding on itself. U.S. yields are going down as investors that need to hold long term securities move into the long end of the Treasury curve.
"I think the main driver right now is basically the lack of foreign yields...Tomorrow, Germany is going to issue a 30-year bond. It's going to have a zero coupon, but it's probably going to come at a premium," said Hans Mikkelsen, head of investment grade corporate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The existing 30-year debt is trading at negative 0.18%."
The move lower in foreign sovereigns has spilled over to the Treasury market. The U.S. 30-year bond hit a low yield last week of 1.916%, and the 10-year could revisit the low of 1.32% it hit in July, 2016, after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. Some strategists expect to see the 10-year at a new record of 1.25% by year end.
"This growing universe of negatively yielding bonds is becoming self-reinforcing as certain investors such as insurance companies and pension funds rush to avoid locking in negative yields to maturity," noted JP Morgan strategists. "There is little doubt that negative yields are causing a distortion in the pricing of duration and credit risk as pension funds and insurance companies are forced to move further up the maturity and credit curve to avoid negative yields."
Analysts say the sharply lower U.S. Treasury yields could snap back if the trade war between China and the U.S. is resolved.
"I think where it has to stop is wherever the market believes there's stimulus or some potential for growth," said Caron. "The headwinds to global growth are being generated by concerns about trade." He said there could be a reversal if the headwinds go away. "Or if there's a recession, we're priced for it."
Mikkelsen said there are other scenarios besides trade, that could bring about a reversal in the move that has driven foreign investors into U.S. corporate bonds, as well as Treasurys. "Maybe central banks are successful, and they create inflation. That's kind of what they're trying to do," he said.
If investors suddenly find fixed income less attractive, that could cause problems. "I think that could be very disorderly. There's no sign of it, but that is one of the risks," he said.
Schumacher said a reversal in yields could ultimately be more broadly positive for the economy and financial markets.
"If super secure government bonds are in a bubble, and that burst that might be a positive for the financial system and the global economy," said Schumacher. "If you're positioned the wrong way, you're going to take a hit. About the whole trade thing, the timeline could easily extend into 2020." He said it could be "bloody" but better for the financial system.
Schumacher said it's unlikely the U.S. could see negative yields but they could go lower in some scenarios. "To some degree, it becomes self-fulfilling," he said. "Imagine a scenario where trade doesn't get any better. It doesn't get much worse and it's kind of going on in the background. Brexit is going on and you see yields could grind lower but we could easily wake up in a month and find the U.S. 10-year is not at 1.55% but it's 1.30% and the yield curve could be more inverted., and that's not a good thing. If someone plays hard ball on trade. Yields could drop a lot more."
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b37659d5269db6cacd5c07b229894726 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/kyle-bass-says-us-interest-rates-will-follow-the-rest-of-the-world-to-zero-this-is-insane.html | Kyle Bass says US interest rates will follow the rest of the world to zero — 'This is insane' | Kyle Bass says US interest rates will follow the rest of the world to zero — 'This is insane'
VIDEO5:0305:03Why this fund manager says a China trade deal is long way offSquawk on the Street
Central banks are just getting started with monetary easing, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass said, predicting U.S. interest rates will keep falling and follow global interest rates all the way down to zero.
"We're the only country that has an integer in front of our bond yields. We have 90% of the world's investment-grade debt. We actually have rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here," Bass, founder and chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management, told CNBC's David Faber on Tuesday.
Bass' comments come as several central banks around the world have implemented stimulative policies to the point where around $15 trillion of global debt trades with a negative rate. Germany and France's respective 10-year yields are in negative territory along with Japan's benchmark rate. China has also implemented stimulative measures to mitigate slowing economic growth.
"This is insane. The Japanese are going to keep going. The Chinese print money like it's a national pastime today. Europe is going to restart QE," Bass said. "QE" refers to quantitative easing, a monetary stimulus tool used by central banks.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last month, citing "global developments" and "muted inflation." Market expectations for lower rates in September are also at 100%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
VIDEO2:4402:44Cramer: Fed may find difficulty in rationalizing another rate cutSquawk Box
Bass noted U.S. rates will fall to zero as politicians disregard budget deficits while economic activity in Europe and China slows. However, these measures could have dire consequences.
"The unintended consequences of central bank printing are that it makes the rich even richer, it makes the middle class stay where they are and it makes the poor stay poor," Bass said.
Central banks are implementing easier monetary policies around the globe while China and the U.S. are engaged in a trade war. The two countries have slapped tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods, sparking uncertainty over future profit and economic growth.
China and the U.S. agreed to restart trade talks in late June but President Donald Trump tweeted Aug. 1 that the U.S. will impose tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese exports. The administration later delayed some of those tariffs until December.
Regardless, Bass does not think a deal is anywhere in sight. "I think Trump's political calculus is to keep talking. If he does a deal, it will be too easy and he'll get attacked from the right. If he does a deal that's too difficult, they won't sign it."
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a663aceeab2ded300a236140f02a72d8 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/stock-rally-after-august-sell-off-could-continue-history-shows.html | Stocks have rebounded big in a short time. History shows market momentum should continue | Stocks have rebounded big in a short time. History shows market momentum should continue
Stocks are on a comeback rally from the depths of the Aug. 14 sell-off, when the Dow suffered its fourth worst point drop in history. As recession fears began to ease, stocks moved sharply higher, with the S&P jumping 3% in just three short trading sessions.
And history shows that when the stock market moves upward at such a quick pace, this momentum typically keeps going.
The massive sell-off left the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 800 points, or 3%, for its biggest drop of 2019 amid a recession signal from the bond market. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly broke below the 2-year rate. The inversion of this key part of the yield curve has been a reliable indicator of economic recessions.
But the market rallied back Thursday, with the Dow ending its volatile trading day higher by almost 100 points, after retail giant Walmart's strong earnings and solid retail sales figures. Retailers Kohl's and Home Depot have followed suit, and now energy stocks — the worst-performing S&P sector this year — may be staging a comeback: Geopolitical tensions in Saudi Arabia sent the XLE ETF, which tracks energy stocks, surging over 2% on Monday.
With the Trump administration now signaling progress on trade negotiations, investors are optimistic. Markets rallied after the U.S. Trade Representative office stated that certain items were being removed from the new tariff list, while duties on others would be delayed until mid-December.
According to data from Kensho, a machine learning tool used by Wall Street banks and hedge funds to identify potential trades based on market history, this upward momentum could continue for another month.
Kensho data reveals that over the past five years, the S&P has gained at least 3% in three trading days on 16 other occasions. Following these moves, the bullish trend tends to continue.
A month later the S&P 500 trades positively 75% of the time, tacking on another 1.5%.
The top-performing sectors in these periods have been information technology, utilities and consumer discretionary.
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c89d8f09129a879260d332bb625c9a50 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/this-is-the-next-best-age-to-claim-social-security-benefitsif-you-cannot-wait-until-70.html?__source=newsletter%7Cyourwealth | Can't wait until 70? This is the next best age to claim Social Security benefits | Can't wait until 70? This is the next best age to claim Social Security benefits
Patrick La Roque | Getty Images
By now, you may have heard: 70 is the best age for claiming Social Security benefits.
Here's why. Because you have already reached your full retirement age — age 66 or 67 for most — you'll receive 100% of the benefits you are entitled to. Plus, for every year you delay beyond your full retirement age, you stand to get a boost of up to 8% to your benefits. Exactly how much of an increase you get is calculated based on the year of your birth and the number of months you delay.
But that stops at age 70.
If you're like many individuals, you're counting down the days until retirement. And waiting until age 70 might sound like a long time.
The good news is that there is a next best age to claim.
Single Social Security claimants who want to hold off until age 70, but find they can’t quite wait any longer should select age 69 for the best trade off, according to Christopher Jones, chief investment officer at Edelman Financial Engines.
That sacrifice may be as little as a few thousand extra dollars in additional lifetime benefits in exchange for starting a year earlier, according to Jones.
“If you’re single, we’ll tell you you should wait until 70,” Jones said. “It is generally preferable to do so.
"But it’s not quite as critical as it is going from 66 to 67, or 67 to 68.”
In a low interest rate environment, it's hard to beat the potential increases for every year you delay claiming your benefits, Jones said.
“That’s a guaranteed real rate of return backed by the federal government,” Jones said. “You can’t get real rates of return at 6% to 8% right now — not even close — in the marketplace.”
VIDEO3:1103:11Social Security mythsOn the Money
If you are married and the higher wage earner, it generally makes sense for you to wait as long as possible to claim.
One reason for that is Social Security payments are based on mortality tables that have not been updated since 1983. And life expectancies have increased since that time.
“People are living longer than they would have been expected to back in 1983, and therefore the credits that you get for delaying Social Security are worth more to you than they would be if they were actuarially fair,” Jones said.
Holding off until age 70 makes sense particularly for the higher earner of a married couple because their benefits will in turn determine spousal and survivor benefits for their significant other.
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For the lower-earning spouse, it generally does not pay to wait to claim beyond full retirement age, Jones said. That is because they have a choice between their own benefits or spousal or survivor benefits based on their spouse's record, whichever is higher. Often, the benefits they are eligible to receive through their spouse will exceed what they would get if they wait until age 70.
For single people, it is preferable to wait until 70 for the highest monthly checks. But those retirees have more flexibility — and a second best option.
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6df475415e0d5f799709ebe2d6802be7 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/urban-outfitters-reports-q2-2019-earnings.html | Urban Outfitters CEO calls second-quarter earnings not one of its 'finest' as profit slides 35% | Urban Outfitters CEO calls second-quarter earnings not one of its 'finest' as profit slides 35%
Pedestrians pass in front of an Urban Outfitters store in New York.Scott Mlyn | CNBC
Urban Outfitters second-quarter earnings report won't be remembered as one of its "finest," its CEO acknowledged Tuesday, after the edgy retailer said profit slid 35% on sales that were weaker than Wall Street expected.
The company's stock seesawed after the markets closed, initially swinging up by 4% before falling by about 2%.
Here's how the company did, compared with what Wall Street was expecting, according to analysts surveyed by Refinitiv:
Adjusted earnings per share: $0.61, vs. $0.58 estimatedRevenue: $962 million, vs. $980.6 million estimated
Net income fell 35% to $60.3 million, or 61 cents a share, compared with $92.8 million, or 84 cents a share a year earlier. Sales across all of Urban Outfitters product lines fell 3% during the three months ended July 31 to $962 million, down from $992.5 million a year ago and wider than the 2% decrease estimated by analysts surveyed by FactSet. It also missed analyst expectations of $980.6 million.
"This year's second quarter will not be remembered as one of Urban's finest. We produced sales and margins below our expectations. Customer acceptance was softer than planned," CEO Richard Hayne told analysts on a conference call. "This resulted in higher year-over-year markdowns and lower margins. Lower store traffic accentuated negative store comp performance and weighed on overall results."
Sales at stores open for at least a year fell 3% during the second quarter from the same period last year, worse than the 2% drop expected by Wall Street analysts surveyed by FactSet. Executives said the sales declines were driven by under-performance in women's apparel, with "product and execution misses."
Hayne was more upbeat about the company's up-coming fiscal third quarter, which started Aug. 1, citing promising same-store sales so far.
"I am pleased to report that customer reaction to our early fall apparel assortments have improved significantly from our second-quarter results," Hayne said in a statement announcing the earnings. Third-quarter same-store sales were positive for all three of Urban Outfitter's brands — its namesake Urban Outfitters clothing line, Free People and Anthropologie, he said.
Earlier this month, the company launched a rental service called Nuuly. It's an attempt to enter a rental industry that is expected to grow more than 20% a year and reach a value of $2.5 billion in 2023, according to data analytics firm GlobalData.
But Urban is also facing tough competition, as companies like Banana Republic and Bloomingdale's similary announced plans to launch their own rental services this month. It also still has to go up against rental service giants such as Rent the Runway and Le Tote.
The company's stock has fallen 37% since January, bringing the company to a market value of around $2 billion.
VIDEO3:5003:50Urban Outfitters' new clothing rental program signals rental is here to stay: CaaStle CEOPower Lunch
Correction: This article was updated to correct that the company missed Wall Street estimates on same-store sales.
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47cf1d22ee49e223dc4ecb4b7d9f736e | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/architect-report-shows-trade-war-hitting-commercial-real-estate.html | New architects' report shows how the trade war is hitting commercial real estate | New architects' report shows how the trade war is hitting commercial real estate
Alistair Berg | Getty Images
A key indicator for the commercial real estate market is showing signs of weakness, and uncertainty in the economy over the trade war, markets and interest rates may be to blame.
The American Institute of Architects' architecture billings improved slightly, though barely in positive territory, as demand for design services in July rose slightly. Design contracts, however, fell into negative territory for the first time in almost a year. Architecture billings also softened in all regions except the West and in all specializations except multifamily.
"The data is not the same as what we saw leading up to the last economic downturn but the continued, slowing across the board will undoubtedly impact architecture firms and the broader construction industry in the coming months," said the AIA's chief economist, Kermit Baker. "A growing number of architecture firms are reporting that the ongoing volatility in the trade situation, the stock market, and interest rates are causing some of their clients to proceed more cautiously on current projects."
Architecture billings are strongest in the multifamily sector, as demand for rental apartments remains high amid weak affordability in the for-sale housing market. All other sectors are in negative territory.
"If people are nervous about the growth outlook, low interest rates become a secondary consideration in spending and business decisions," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and a CNBC contributor.
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600f0add43188b3a3c9246c46c4b010a | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/huawei-ceo-ren-zhengfei-lays-out-battle-strategy-amid-us-pressure.html | Huawei faces a 'life or death crisis,' CEO says as he lays out 'battle' strategy amid US pressure | Huawei faces a 'life or death crisis,' CEO says as he lays out 'battle' strategy amid US pressure
Ren Zhengfei, founder and chief executive officer of Huawei Technologies Co., speaks during an interview at the company's headquarters in Shenzhen, China, on Tuesday, Jan. 15, 2019.Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Huawei is facing a "life or death crisis" amid continued pressure from the U.S. government, its founder and CEO told employees, as he laid out a strategy for the Chinese telecommunications giant going forward.
In a memo to employees of Huawei's networking division seen by CNBC, Ren Zhengfei described the company's current situation as a "battle." Ren is well-known for using military language in his communications with employees.
In May, the company was put on a U.S. blacklist — or the so-called Entity List — which restricts American businesses from selling to the Chinese firm. Huawei relies on a lot of American technology from software to hardware.
But on Monday, the U.S. administration extended a reprieve for the telecommunications company for 90 days. U.S. businesses can sell specific products to Huawei during the 90-day period.
"Now that the company is at a life or death crisis, our first priority is to encourage all crew to make contributions, and the second is to choose and promote talents, to add 'new blood' to our system," Ren said, according to a CNBC translation of the memo. He said there will be "new blood" in the company in three to five years.
The Huawei boss laid out plans to bring more efficiencies to the organization. This included simplifying the reporting structure, cutting down on surplus staff, axing repetitive jobs and moving managers to other positions as required.
He also urged staff to make sure people pay attention to the quality of the contracts they are signing with customers to ensure Huawei is paid on time and does not suffer any cash flow issues.
Ren added that Huawei would also accelerate the purchase of important equipment in order to meet customers' demand.
The Chinese telecommunications firm has been increasingly caught up in the trade war between the U.S. and China.
As a result, Huawei has been trying to wean itself off reliance on American technology. The company designs its own processors for its smartphones and recently released an operating system for various devices called Harmony OS. Richard Yu, CEO of Huawei's consumer division said that it would prefer to continue to using Google's Android operating system, but if it was not able to, it could switch to HarmonyOS "immediately."
President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals over the last few months about the fate of Huawei in the U.S.
In May, he said that it was "possible that Huawei would be included in a trade deal." But this weekend, Trump said he didn't want to do business with Huawei "because it is a national security threat."
VIDEO16:4416:44Watch CNBC's full interview with Secretary of State Mike PompeoSquawk Box
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, however, said the message from the administration is clear.
"President Trump has been unambiguous. I don't think there's a mixed message at all," Pompeo told CNBC. "The threat of having Chinese telecom systems inside of American networks or inside of networks around the world presents an enormous risk — a national security risk. Our mission set is to find a way to reduce that risk, to take that risk down as much as we possibly can."
The U.S. has said that Huawei products carry a risk of allowing Chinese authorities to spy on Americans via backdoors, something the Chinese tech company has repeatedly denied.
- Additional reporting by CNBC's Hilary Pan.
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31a244ebb1cea5eea6ab27e56f29920b | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/jp-morgan-to-scrap-digital-wallet-app-chase-pay.html | JP Morgan to scrap digital wallet app Chase Pay | JP Morgan to scrap digital wallet app Chase Pay
Harriet Taylor | CNBC
J.P. Morgan Chase customers will no longer be able to pay with their phones in stores beginning next year.
The bank said it plans to shut down its Chase Pay app in early 2020. The mobile payment app was launched in 2015 just as Apple Pay was gaining popularity.
"The change we are announcing is one that is intended to focus our efforts where we see consumer behavior trending and merchants investing," Eric Connolly, head of Chase Pay, said in an email. "We see our biggest opportunity in working with merchants to provide easy payment solutions for customers through the Chase Pay button online and directly in merchant apps, which has seen double-digit growth for the last three years."
The bank announced that it plans to add more retailers that accept Chase Pay through merchant apps including food ordering company Grubhub.
J.P. Morgan's attempt at digital banking and payments has not been smooth. The bank in June shut down its mobile banking app Finn, meant to lure millennials with zero fees and emojis, just a year after its nationwide release. It also ended an online small business loan partnership with On Deck this year.
J.P. Morgan faced overwhelming competition from Apple. Apple Pay has been adopted by 43% iPhone Users, according to Loup Ventures' estimates in February. This week, the tech giant also launched the Apple Card, an iPhone-linked credit card in partnership with Goldman Sachs, in its latest move to disrupt the payment space.
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6666b5259fbbdc4cc2b0b22d70913378 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-nordstrom-l-brands.html | Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nordstrom, L Brands and more | Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nordstrom, L Brands and more
A Nordstrom store in Irvine, California.Scott Mlyn | CNBC
Check out the companies making headlines after the bell:
Shares of Nordstrom surged 11% in extended trading after the retailer posted a strong profit despite weakening second-quarter sales. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 90 cents on revenue of $3.87 billion. Analysts had expected earnings per share of 75 cents on revenue of $3.93 billion, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates.
Nordstrom, however, cut its full-year guidance for net sales and earnings. The company said it now expects full-year earnings per share between $3.25 and $3.50, down from its previous expectation for earnings per share between $3.25 and $3.65.
Pure Storage edged slightly lower after announcing the departure of Chief Financial Officer Tim Riitters as well as issuing a disappointing sales outlook. The flash storage company said Riitters will remain at the company in the fall as it searches for a successor. Pure Storage said it expects revenue between $434 million and $446 million for the third quarter and between $1.645 billion and $1.715 billion for fiscal 2020. Those figures are lower than Refinitiv consensus estimates for $466.3 million and $1.725 billion, respectively.
Shares of L Brands ticked 1% lower after the Victoria's Secret owner posted disappointing sales, despite better-than-expected profit. The company reported adjusted second-quarter earnings per share of 24 cents on revenue of $2.90 billion. Analysts had expected earnings per share of 20 cents on revenue of $2.95 billion, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. Same-store sales at Victoria's Secret fell 6%, more than analyst expectations for a drop of 3.9%. But comparable store sales at Bath & Body Works grew 8%, better than the 6.3% expected.
Splunk briefly 1% after the software company reported strong second-quarter earnings and announced it would acquire cloud monitoring service SignalFx for $1.05 billion in cash and stock. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 30 cents on revenue of $517 million. Analysts had expected earnings per share of 12 cents on revenue of $488 million, according to Refinitiv consensus estimates. The stock later reversed to trade slightly below its closing price.
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dc6b7fa7e0da8ea232957e248eb7af39 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/trump-says-apple-ceo-tim-cook-is-a-great-executive-because-he-calls.html? | Trump says Apple CEO Tim Cook is a 'great executive because he calls me and others don't' | Trump says Apple CEO Tim Cook is a 'great executive because he calls me and others don't'
Apple CEO Tim Cook with U.S. President Donald Trump during a meeting of the American Technology Council on June 19, 2017.Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
President Donald Trump likes Apple CEO Tim Cook. But it's not necessarily because he's running a big and successful business. Rather, Trump said Cook calls him "whenever there is a problem."
"That's why he's a great executive," Trump told reporters on Wednesday outside the White House. "Because he calls me and others don't."
Last week, Cook joined Trump for dinner at the Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey. Their warm relationship stands in stark contrast to Trump's position on other top executives, whom he frequently antagonizes.
"Others go out and hire very expensive consultants," Trump said. "Tim Cook calls Donald Trump directly."
Cook may be willing to reach out because Apple has a lot at stake when it comes to policy decisions. The company does the majority of its final device assembly in China, putting products such as the iPhone at risk when the Trump administration announces tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump has said he wants Apple to make its products in the U.S.
Apple's iPhone was in line to get a 10% tariff starting Sept. 1, before Trump announced a temporary reprieve for laptops and cellphones, pushing the start date for the duties back to Dec. 15.
According to Trump, Cook recently argued that the 10% tariff would be unfair to Apple, especially compared with its primary competitor Samsung, which does most of its manufacturing in South Korea. Trump suggested on Wednesday that Cook directly influenced the administration's decision to waive the tariff on cellphones and laptops.
"The problem was that Samsung, a competitor, his competitor, wouldn't be paying tariffs, and Tim Cook would," Trump said. "I gotta help him out short-term, because it's a great American company."
Apple didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.
The recent skirmish over import duties is only the latest in a long string of efforts to keep Apple out of Trump's trade war.
Apple asked for duty waivers for parts for the Mac Pro in July. The Mac Pro is an expensive computer that was assembled in Texas, but there's a redesign launching later this year, which may be made in China, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Trump tweeted that Apple would not be getting any tariff waivers or relief for Mac Pro parts made in China.
When Cook was asked about the issue on Apple's earnings call, he said he'd like to make the computer in the U.S., but also emphasized that Apple was in contact with the administration.
"We're explaining that and hope for a positive outcome," Cook said.
Less than a month after Trump was elected, he said that Cook called him following the victory to congratulate him.
Cook has criticized Trump for his environmental policies, his immigration policies, and his tepid response to the deadly white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017.
Cook has also poked fun at the president. After Trump mistakenly called the CEO "Tim Apple" in March, Cook changed his Twitter profile name to Tim followed by the iconic Apple logo.
Despite their differences, the lines of communication are open. As Trump said at the White House in July, "A man I have a lot of liking for and respect is Tim Cook, and we'll work it out."
WATCH: President Trump flubs Apple CEO's name
VIDEO4:4604:46Watch President Trump flub Apple CEO Tim Cook's name during televised meetingWhite House
Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech industry news.
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4b18bd9eda6133093464369d99a3cdde | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/what-a-trump-payroll-tax-cut-would-actually-mean-for-your-wallet.html | Trump hints at payroll tax cuts to mitigate coronavirus effects. Here's what that could mean for your pay | Trump hints at payroll tax cuts to mitigate coronavirus effects. Here's what that could mean for your pay
RyanJLane | Getty Images
President Donald Trump is considering new tax relief measures to help Americans combat the economic effects of the coronavirus.
That includes potential payroll tax cuts.
"We are to be meeting with House Republicans, Mitch McConnell, and discussing a possible payroll tax cut or relief, substantial relief, very substantial relief," Trump said at a press briefing on Monday.
VIDEO2:4002:40White House considers stimulus measures after coronavirus-driven market dropSquawk Box
It isn't the first time the president has floated the idea of cutting payroll taxes, which would let American workers take home bigger paychecks.
However, financial experts are generally not a fan of such a move, due to the potential negative consequences it could have on both individuals and the economy.
Payroll taxes are withheld from workers' wages and are used to fund government programs, such as Social Security and Medicare.
For Social Security, employee wages are currently subject to a 6.2% tax up to $137,700. Workers also pay a Medicare tax of 1.45%.
Employers match what workers contribute by also kicking in 6.2% toward Social Security and 1.45% for Medicare.
Workers who earn more than $200,000 individually, or $250,000 if they are married and filing jointly, pay an additional 0.9% Medicare surtax.
Self-employed individuals pay 12.4% toward Social Security and 2.9% for Medicare. They also are subject to the Medicare surtax for wages over $200,000.
VIDEO2:3902:39How Social Security benefits are calculatedInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
Trump has not elaborated on how large a payroll tax cut would be.
If he were to make such a move, he would not be the first. Former President Barack Obama previously reduced the taxes paid by employees to 4.2%, down from 6.2%, in 2011 and 2012.
Yet experts say that the boost consumers get to their pay checks might not be that noticeable.
If $10,000 was made exempt from payroll taxes, that would be just $700 for many workers, said Jeffrey Levine, CEO and director of financial planning at BluePrint Wealth Alliance. That might not be enough to stimulate the economy, he said.
Experts also worry that the trust funds for Social Security and Medicare, which are already facing funding shortfalls, would be further damaged.
Payroll tax cuts could not only jeopardize the benefits for individuals who are retired or who are approaching retirement, but could also point to bigger payroll tax hikes for younger generations, according to Laurence Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University and president of Economic Security Planning, a provider of financial planning tools.
VIDEO6:4106:41Josh Brown: What Trump's tax bill means for your moneyInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
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d4d20d56fda24f218e8c9f2acc3e1601 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/arturo-estrella-chances-of-a-recession-are-pretty-high.html?recirc=taboolainternal | The economist who first linked the yield curve to recessions sees 'pretty high' chance of downturn | The economist who first linked the yield curve to recessions sees 'pretty high' chance of downturn
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Arturo Estrella, the economist who first discovered the predictive power of the yield curve, has a message for recession naysayers: It could hit sooner than you think.
"It's been 50 years and 7 recessions with a perfect record," Estrella told CNBC in a message Thursday. "It's impossible to be 100% sure about the future but I'd say the chances of a recession in the second half next year are pretty high."
Estrella was a professor of economics at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and was once an economist at the New York Federal Reserve. Working at the Fed, Estrella studied the spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill as a recession predictor and found that particular part of the curve was the most accurate. It dipped below zero this year and is still inverted.
VIDEO3:0103:01Santelli Exchange: Yield curve inversionsSquawk on the Street
More parts of the so-called curve have started to invert, raising investors' recession fears. On Thursday, the spread between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and that of the 2-year note turned negative for the third time in less than two weeks since Aug. 14. As of 4:05 p.m., it was still inverted with the 2-year yield at 1.61% and the 10-year rate at 1.606%. The previous two inversions were just brief moments.
This bond market phenomenon has been a reliable recession indicator preceding each downturn over the past 50 years. What has Estrella worried is that the part of the curve he really follows — the 3-month/10-year — has remained inverted for months with the spread widening. Currently the 3-month Treasury bill rate is 1.987%.
"Those who say things are different each time are probably counting on the fact that it will take about 2 years to know for sure, so who's going to remember?" Estrella added in the message.
Credit Suisse found that it took, on average, 22 months before a recession hit following a 2-year and 10-year inversion going back the last four decades.
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400a9dc1901cf25619f912e118885fa0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/22/overstock-ceo-patrick-byrne-resigns-following-deep-state-comments.html | Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne resigns following 'deep state' comments, stock rises | Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne resigns following 'deep state' comments, stock rises
VIDEO0:5400:54Overstock surges after CEO Patrick Byrne resigns following 'Deep State' commentsHalftime Report
Overstock CEO Partick Byrne resigned from the e-commerce company Thursday, 10 days after making comments about his role in the "deep state."
Shares of Overstock popped as much as 17% after being halted for the news. The stock finished Thursday up 8.3% to $21.12.
"In July I came forward to a small set of journalists regarding my involvement in certain government matters. Doing so was not my first choice, but I was reminded of the damage done to our nation for three years and felt my duty as a citizen precluded me from staying silent any longer," Byrne said in a statement. "Though patriotic Americans are writing me in support, my presence may affect and complicate all manner of business relationships, from insurability to strategic discussions regarding our retail business."
"Thus, while I believe that I did what was necessary for the good of the country, for the good of the firm, I am in the sad position of having to sever ties with Overstock, both as CEO and board member, effective Thursday August 22," he added.
Byrne also touched on Overstock's business strategy in the letter addressed to shareholders, noting that the company could consider the possibility of M&A in the future.
"If the right strategic offer is made that reflects the value of that technological gem, I am confident the board will consider it," he said. "It is possible that my absence will advance the possibility."
Byrne, who founded Overstock 20 years ago, has been in hot water since he responded to claims of his involvement in the federal government's investigation into the 2016 election. The announcement sent Overstock's shares tumbling more than 30% over the following days.
In a statement titled "Overstock.com CEO Comments on Deep State, Withholds Further Comment," Byrne referred to federal agents as the "Men in Black" and said he assisted in investigations related to the Clintons and Russian interference.
In an interview with The New York Times published three days later, Byrne claimed he was romantically involved with Maria Butina, the Russian operative who used her National Rifle Association activism to infiltrate American politics. She was later sentenced to 18 months in prison.
Overstock said it would appoint Jonathan Johnson, an Overstock board member and president of Overstock's blockchain subsidiary Medici Ventures, as interim CEO.
"We respect and understand Patrick's reasons for resigning and acknowledge his momentous achievement in taking Overstock from a startup twenty years ago to one of the nation's leading online retailers and positioning it at the forefront of the blockchain revolution," board Chairwoman Allison Abraham said in a statement.
Read the full letter from Byrne below:
Dear Shareholders,In July I came forward to a small set of journalists regarding my involvement in certain government matters. Doing so was not my first choice, but I was reminded of the damage done to our nation for three years and felt my duty as a citizen precluded me from staying silent any longer. So, I came forward in as carefully and well-managed fashion as I could. The news that I shared is bubbling (however haphazardly) into the public. Though patriotic Americans are writing me in support, my presence may affect and complicate all manner of business relationships, from insurability to strategic discussions regarding our retail business. Thus, while I believe that I did what was necessary for the good of the country, for the good of the firm, I am in the sad position of having to sever ties with Overstock, both as CEO and board member, effective Thursday August 22.This possibility or even likelihood has been forefront of my mind for just over a year, since certain news became public in July 2018. On July 15 of this year, in the expectation that I might be gone before our recent (August 8) earnings call, I wrote my most detailed letter to shareholders in a long time. Here are the key points from that letter that you should know as a shareholder:I think the blockchain revolution will reshape key social institutions. We have designed and breathed life into perhaps the most significant blockchain keiretsu in the world, a network of blockchain firms seeking to revolutionize identity, land governance (= rule of law = potential = capital), central banking, capital markets, supply chains, and voting. In three of those fields (land governance, central banking, and capital markets) the word "trillions" comes up when calculating the disruptive opportunity of blockchain. In those three fields, our blockchain progeny (Medici Land Governance, Bitt, and tZERO, respectively) are arguably the leading blockchain disruptors in existence. Retail We face a competitor who (by the end of this year) will have lost close to $3 billion, and who announced recently it will seek to raise another $750 million, and who will be able to cover its expenses when the two lines in the graph intersect (cf. below right). After my ill-fated experiment last year in copying our competition's strategy, our retail business has recovered to a state of positive adjusted EBITDA (cf. graph on left).A Media Snippet accompanying this announcement is available by clicking on the image or link below:Leadership – We have the most solid Retail leadership team we have ever had. Our ab initio redesign of our executive structure starting a year ago has led to a better integration of all functions and proper management thereof than we have ever achieved in our history.Chief Marketing Officer JP Knab is the greatest master of Digital Marketing I have ever met. I will miss watching Commander Data find new arbitrage.Kamelia Aryfar is a data scientist and Machine Learning specialist of some renown: Dr. Aryfar originally cut her teeth at Etsy, and in her two years with us has led the Machine Learning overhaul of our company, (through which we are 40% complete).The integration of Skynet (Kamelia's name for her AI creation) continues across Marketing and Sourcing, and as it augments decisioning, we discover ways to find continuous gains.In recognition of the importance that Machine Learning is coming to play in our world, Kamelia has been named Executive Vice President and has also been appointed to the company's board of directors. She is an extraordinary asset to the firm and she will do big things for you shareholders in the future.Dave Nielsen is one of the few OG retailers I ever met who made the prop-to-jet conversion. He is as able as they come and is widely admired within the firm. He has already been serving as President and has been a big part of our radical improvement in bottom line this year. He is a true adult. He knows the mission is to continue providing the space and resources for Kamelia, JP and others to keep bringing in those multi-tens of million-dollar improvements in Retail bottom line by focusing on making our Retail site a gem technologically and leave the multi-billion losses to others.Over the last three years, Jonathan Johnson has done an extraordinary job of converting a mishmash of entrepreneurs, term papers, and your capital, into the most remarkable keiretsu of well-formed blockchain firms in the world. He has proven himself to be an extremely capable partner who gets the vision. I welcome that he will be serving as CEO of your entire public company. You could not have a more stable, prudent leader. The reason we have been such good partners is that Jonathan is the exact opposite of me in many respects. No doubt that may be welcome in some quarters. He has the keiretsu, he has the roadmap, he understands that the goal is to nurture the keiretsu to its full potential while permitting the Retail business to focus all its efforts on technological perfection rather than loss accumulation.Strategically:We have removed the pistol from our temple. I believe in the near future the cash generated by Retail going forward should be adequate for funding both Retail's ongoing innovation (we caught the Machine Learning wave just right here, and have a first-rate team that is reinventing the company from an ML perspective), and nurturing to maturity our keiretsu of blockchain firms, especially tZERO, Medici Land Governance, and Bitt (well, and Voatz, too) – particularly with the possibility of their becoming less of a cash burn, either through outside investments, or from the fact that their products (e.g., tZERO's) are reaching the market.Retail:In the course of discussions with brick-and-mortars last year, when we filled out their models with our data, we would generally discover that if we were part of a brick-and-mortar chain with a national footprint there could be ≈$200 million in annual savings (primarily but not exclusively in logistics). On the other hand, if joined to certain sites with high traffic but which have not cracked the monetization nut, models showed that, combined with us, there might be savings of ≈$150 - $200 million.In the absence of some such hybridization, I think that just by continuing to get supply-chain-smarter we can find ≈$40 million of those savings on our own over 12-18 months. We have introduced Advertising Technology this summer which will generate (I believe) a similarly attractive number over the same time frame. So, assuming Retail does $115 - $120 millionbetter on the bottom line this year than last (our range of estimates), expecting it next year to make multiple tens of millions of dollars in bottom line improvements again seems reasonable to me.As you know, I do think that the Gods of Economics believe some such hybridization of business models is to be done. That could take many forms, from cooperative partnerships with a brick-and-mortar, to an acquisition (for a fund with ambition, the ultimate form might be a stack of all three layers and a recovery of perhaps ≈$300 million in bottom line while establishing something unique).Collectively - The best thing to do for shareholder interest is to use cash flow to mature our blockchain keiretsu firms to fruition while we keep running our Retail business focusing on refining it as an exquisite gem of a technology platform, rather than again trying to go head-to-head with any firm in the process of dropping billions of dollars in losses. Refining that technological gem is what brings value to brick-and-mortars for whom we represent a way to leap to the front of the pack technologically. If the right strategic offer is made that reflects the value of that technological gem, I am confident the board will consider it. It is possible that my absence will advance the possibility.On any normal day, my presence is not conducive to strategic discussions regarding our retail business. I believe that going forward my presence will definitelynot be conducive to such strategic discussions. And if the hors d'oeuvre that was served recently caused the market such indigestion, it is not going to be in shareholder interest for me to be around if and when any main course is served.It has been an honor to serve you through thick and thin, threats grand and arcane, for the past 20 years. You own some disruptive assets herein. One of them changed how furniture gets purchased in the United States and has run up a record of GAAP profitable years that is nearly unrivaled in B2C eCommerce, on a fraction of the capital of every competitor they ever faced (a fact missed by most). And you own blockchain assets that seem poised to revolutionize capital markets, finance, and governance for the poor. It has been 20 years of remarkable innovation from a team that is now honed for it.Coming forward publicly about my involvement in other matters was hardly my first choice. But for three years I have watched my country pull itself apart while I knew many answers, and I set my red line at seeing civil violence breaking out. My Rabbi made me see that "coming forward" meant telling the public (not just the government) the truth. I now plan on leaving things to the esteemed Department of Justice(which I have doubtless already angered enough by going public) and disappearing for some time.I wish all shareholders a smooth and level road… And don't forget to shop Overstock.com!Your humble servant,Patrick M. Byrne
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70c69c70af0db47fc8354acc5131b7ba | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/first-death-reported-in-illinois-from-vaping-related-lung-illness-officials-say.html | First death reported from vaping-related lung illness, officials say | First death reported from vaping-related lung illness, officials say
JUUL advertising outside a vape shot in New York.Melissa Fares | Reuters
One person has died after being hospitalized with a severe lung illness after using an e-cigarette, the first death doctors have linked to vaping, Illinois officials said Friday.
The death comes as federal and state health officials investigate a slew of lung illnesses in connection with e-cigarette use. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on a conference call with reporters Friday that there are now 193 cases of severe pulmonary disease among people who use e-cigarettes, reported by 22 states between June 28 and Aug. 20.
In Illinois, 22 people ranging in age from 17 to 38 years old have reported respiratory illnesses after using e-cigarettes or vaping.
"The severity of illness people are experiencing is alarming and we must get the word out that using e-cigarettes and vaping can be dangerous," said Ngozi Ezike, the director of the Illinois Department of Public Health. She said the state requested help from the CDC, which arrived with a team of investigators Tuesday.
Jennifer Layden, the state's chief medical officer and epidemiologist, said some of the cases have reported the use of THC products and oils. THC is the active compound in marijuana.
The gender and age of the Illinois resident who died wasn't immediately disclosed.
The CDC on Saturday announced that it was investigating 153 cases of pulmonary disease among people who use e-cigarettes.
In Illinois alone, officials said the number of vaping-related cases has doubled in the past week. Most of the cases involve teens and young adults.
The symptoms e-cigarette users have experienced included coughing, shortness of breath and fatigue, according to health officials.
The long-term health effects of vaping are largely unknown. E-cigarettes are thought to be generally safer than traditional cigarettes.
VIDEO6:4206:42Do I have a money disorder?Invest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
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4cbb6b28c07f9123c399adbeeeb6f14a | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/24/artificial-intelligence-and-machine-learning-are-the-next-frontiers-for-etfs.html | Artificial intelligence and machine learning are the next frontiers for ETFs, says industry pro | Artificial intelligence and machine learning are the next frontiers for ETFs, says industry pro
VIDEO6:3006:30This is the next frontier for ETFs, says decadeslong industry proETF Edge
Artificial intelligence and machine learning could be the next frontier for ETFs to outperform the market.
So says Robert Tull, President of ProcureAM, an innovative exchange-traded product firm and wholly owned subsidiary of Procure Holdings.
A veteran in the business, Tull has been involved in the ETF industry for decades, creating more than 400 ETFs across 18 different countries. Now, he's looking at new ways to beat the market by using big data as raw material, combined with machine learning, to build ETF portfolios that could potentially outperform active management — even actively managed ETFs.
"Active management has been out there for a long time, underperforming," he said on CNBC's "ETF Edge." "They haven't found a solution yet, and I think the technology that I've run into is going to help the marketplace today."
The key to this new technology is ensemble analytics, a type of methodology that uses multiple learning algorithms to better predict performance.
"The technology's been around for years," Tull said. "It's just never moved into the asset management space, so [it's about] getting data collected, running permutations against it and then really focusing on the best of the best selection that's diversified."
In other words, instead of picking individual stocks, Tull aims to make smart beta even smarter by extracting data from other ETFs and attempting to build the smartest of them all.
Smart beta involves the use of a rules-based system, or a series of factors, for selecting investments to include in a fund's portfolio. These funds are governed by a specific set of rules and are typically weighted differently from the traditional market cap-based weighting scheme.
Goldman Sachs has done just this with its ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF (GSLC), which looks at four different factors — value, momentum, high quality and low volatility — and weights them accordingly.
The index — which counts Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Johnson & Johnson and Facebook as its top five largest holdings — has fared well in 2019, up about 15%.
Tull has taken this same model, used it as a benchmark and applied his own secret sauce of big data analytics and AI to eliminate three out of the five stocks — Microsoft, Apple and Johnson & Johnson — through mathematics and modeling, giving Amazon and Facebook each a 5% weighting.
The thinking behind this is that the collective wisdom of every smart beta ETF out there — including Goldman's — is better than the mindset of any individual set of stock pickers.
"You're going to add the data to it that, quite frankly, a human brain just can't digest," said Tull.
So, the key question becomes, is there any evidence that machine learning can actually outperform when it comes to picking stocks?
Dave Nadig, who runs ETF.com, says there is.
He points to the AI Powered Equity ETF (AIEQ), which has risen 17%, besting the S&P 500 this year. The fund, run by Equbot, uses both A.I. and IBM Watson to find opportunities in the market.
"I think this is the next generation, frankly, of financial product development," said Nadig. "Machine learning sounds big and scary, but all it is, is really just taking data and things you already know, how things perform, to generate rules – as opposed to hiring a bunch of CFAs to come up with those rules about what you're going to buy and sell based on fundamentals."
Tull added that while his A.I.-powered programs are still in the early stages of development, a number of companies have already shown interest in the idea.
"I can tell you that there are multiple insurance companies that have done their due diligence tests who are signing up," he added. "We have derivatives desks who are signing up, so I think they [along with the data] have convinced me that this is the future."
Disclaimer
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c9ddd1973f61c8a9f09b55b944414271 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/fake-juul-pods-fill-shelves-after-vaping-giant-pulled-fruity-flavors.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar | Fake Juul pods line store shelves, worrying users and posing another threat to the embattled company | Fake Juul pods line store shelves, worrying users and posing another threat to the embattled company
A sign advertising Juul brand vaping products is seen outside a shop in New York City, February 6, 2019.Mike Segar | Reuters
They look like the e-cigarette Juul. They taste sort of like Juul. But they're not Juul.
The market-leading e-cigarette company stopped selling fruity flavors of nicotine pods in retail stores last fall amid pressure from the Food and Drug Administration to stem what it declared an "epidemic" of teen vaping. Yet mango, fruit and creme pods continue to line store shelves — presumably many of them fake.
Juul users have been deluged with a variety of alternatives since then. Some companies have rushed in to make "compatible" pods that can be vaped with Juul's devices but are marketed under different brand names. Then there are the more troubling, counterfeit products, which advertise themselves as and look like real Juul pods to the naked eye.
Concerns about the health effects of vaping are growing as more and more users report health problems. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week said 22 states have reported 193 possible cases of severe lung illness and one related death associated with e-cigarette use.
For Juul, counterfeit pods add another risk to the already embattled company. Parents and regulators might not distinguish whether minors are using real or fake Juul products. And it's unclear what exactly users are inhaling when they puff on fake pods.
"Counterfeit products are a direct threat to public health and our plan to combat youth usage," Juul CEO Kevin Burns said in a statement, adding that "other companies are aggressively and illegally selling counterfeit 'JUULpods' in the very flavors we stopped shipping, which are made with unknown ingredients and under unknown quality and manufacturing standards."
Health officials say it's too early to pinpoint what's causing the nearly 200 cases of severe pulmonary disease. All they know at this point is they are associated with vaping and in many cases products containing THC, the substance in marijuana that produces a high.
Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said these cases are probably linked to counterfeit products that work with commonly used devices, including Juul. Gottlieb, who is a CNBC contributor, said the clustering of the illnesses suggests these products are "getting into local markets."
"The responsible companies … have taken their flavored products out of convenience stores, like Juul. So now what's filling the void are these counterfeit flavored products," he said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Adrian Punderson, Juul's vice president of intellectual property protection, said he cannot quantify the increase in counterfeit products Juul has seen since the company pulled flavored pods from stores. However, he said in any industry, companies that make knockoffs identify the popular products and mostly make those "because that's what makes business sense."
"Across the board, in terms of hitting factories and looking at products seized in terms of packaging, literally every single flavor is out there," said Punderson, who joined Juul earlier this year after working at PwC and Apple.
Juul's investigations into counterfeit products have all traced back to China, the company said. Law enforcement has already raided 15 factories in China this year, Punderson said, seizing "hundreds of thousands of counterfeit products at factories dedicated to manufacturing counterfeit Juul products."
Some raids have uncovered dirty factories and unsanitary working conditions, he said. For example, investigators found liquids stored on the floor and in dirty storage containers with workers using ketchup-type squirt bottles to inject the liquid into the pods. Employees also used visibly dirty cloths to wipe the excess fluid off the bottle, pods and their hands, Punderson said.
The FDA repeated its previous statement on the topic, saying it's investigating counterfeit e-cigarette products, "as well as whether companies are introducing new e-cigarettes in violation of premarket authorization requirements."
These efforts haven't stopped the knockoff pods from getting into people's hands. Counterfeits are such a hot topic on the Juul subject board on Reddit that the moderators started marking any posts asking whether pods are real or fake as spam.
Ali, a 24-year-old in New York who asked not to publish his last name for professional reasons, said he sometimes spends 20 minutes examining a box of pods. He checks the color of the liquid inside each pod — counterfeits tend to be much darker than the genuine ones, he said.
Once he determines it was probably legit, he pops the pod into his device. He takes a hit and knows right away, "fake."
"It just tastes bad," he said. "I hit it once and almost threw it up."
Ali stopped vaping altogether because he started worrying about the lack of e-cigarette regulation and transparency into what exactly he was puffing on. Juul says it takes product safety "seriously" and it conducts "extensive preclinical and toxicological testing of the ingredients" in its liquids and aerosols.
Ali had quit smoking cigarettes cold turkey before he picked up Juul, so he figured he could quit vaping too.
Luis Rodriguez, a 21-year-old freelance video editor, said he thought it was strange he kept seeing mango Juul pods on sale at the bodega near his New York apartment, after the company announced plans to limit sales of its sweeter flavors to its website. A pack of four pods, which sells for $15.99 online, was also selling for a premium in the store — $25.
"When it was still being sold," he said, "that was cause for skepticism."
VIDEO4:5304:53Gottlieb: Regulators need to step up oversight on counterfeit e-cigarettesSquawk Box
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d12e0849ae278f165e1f88f9b4f0fce0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/26/judge-rules-against-johnson-johnson-in-landmark-opioid-case-in-oklahoma.html | Judge rules against Johnson & Johnson in landmark opioid case in Oklahoma | Judge rules against Johnson & Johnson in landmark opioid case in Oklahoma
VIDEO1:2201:22Oklahoma judge rules against Johnson & Johnson for opioid problemClosing Bell
An Oklahoma judge on Monday ruled against Johnson & Johnson in the state's opioid suit, forcing the company to pay $572 million in the first ruling in the U.S. holding a drugmaker accountable for helping fuel the epidemic.
Calling the opioid crisis an "imminent danger and menace," District Judge Thad Balkman said, "the state met its burden that the defendants Janssen and Johnson & Johnson's misleading marketing and promotion of opioids created a nuisance as defined by [the law]," including a finding that those actions compromised the health and safety of thousands of Oklahomans.
"Specifically, defendants caused an opioid crisis that's evidenced by increased rates of addiction, overdose deaths and neonatal abstinence syndrome," he added.
The ruling, which J&J intends to appeal, says that the company and subsidiary Janssen repeatedly downplayed the risks of addiction to opioids, training sales representatives to tell doctors the risk was 2.6% or less if the drugs were prescribed by a doctor. Physicians who prescribed a high amount of opioids were targeted as "key customers."
The $572 million judgment against J&J covers one year of costs under the state's plan to combat the crisis, even though the attorney general's office presented several witnesses who said it would take at least 20 years to carry out. "The state did not present sufficient evidence of the amount of time and costs necessary, beyond year one, to abate the opioid crisis," the ruling says.
The fine was significantly less than the penalties sought by Oklahoma, sending J&J's stock up by about 2% in post-market trading after the verdict was read. Investors were expecting J&J to be fined between $500 million and $5 billion, according to Evercore ISI analyst Elizabeth Anderson.
J&J said the decision in the case is "flawed" and that the state "failed to present evidence that the company's products or actions caused a public nuisance in Oklahoma."
"Janssen did not cause the opioid crisis in Oklahoma, and neither the facts nor the law support this outcome," Johnson & Johnson general counsel Michael Ullmann said in a statement. "We recognize the opioid crisis is a tremendously complex public health issue and we have deep sympathy for everyone affected. We are working with partners to find ways to help those in need."
Shares of drugmakers Mallinckrodt, Teva Pharmaceutical and Endo International also rose on the news in after-hours trading.
VIDEO1:4101:41What the 'Predictably Irrational' author says not to do when the stock market tanksInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
The verdict Monday "makes owning J&J a little easier," said Jared Holz, a health-care equity strategist at Jefferies. "Like others have alluded to, this is [just] one particular state."
J&J was the only defendant left in the seven-week trial, which began May 28. Purdue Pharma, the privately held maker of OxyContin that has faced much of the blame for the nationwide crisis, and Teva Pharmaceutical each reached a settlement with the state before the trial started. Both companies did not admit to any wrongdoing.
Balkman's decision could have sweeping implications as other states and communities try to hold companies responsible for the fueling the opioid epidemic, which killed more than 400,000 people in the U.S. from 1999 to 2017, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Oklahoma Attorney General Mike Hunter had claimed that J&J and its pharmaceutical subsidiary Janssen aggressively marketed to doctors and downplayed the risks of opioids as early as the 1990s. The state said J&J's sales practices created an oversupply of the addictive painkillers and "a public nuisance" that upended lives and would cost the state $12.7 billion to $17.5 billion. The state was seeking more than $17 billion from the company.
J&J, which marketed the opioid painkillers Duragesic and Nucynta, denied any wrongdoing. Lawyers for the company disputed the legal basis Oklahoma used to sue J&J, relying on a "public nuisance" claim. They said the state has previously limited the act to disputes involving property or public spaces.
Legal analysts had seen the trial as a litmus test for plaintiffs of some 1,900 pending cases against Purdue Pharma, J&J and other opioid manufacturers that were consolidated and transferred to a federal judge in the Northern District of Ohio. Some legal scholars have compared the massive opioid litigation to the tobacco master settlement agreement in the 1990s.
During arguments in Oklahoma, Hunter said J&J and others rushed to produce a "magic pill" in their pursuit of profits, while ignoring decades of scientific research that showed the dangers of opioids. Balkman heard testimony from victims of the crisis, including a father of a college football player who died of a drug overdose.
They "embarked on a cynical, deceitful, multibillion-dollar brainwashing campaign to establish opioid analgesics as the magic drug," Hunter told the court. "Money may not be the root of all evil but ... money can make people and businesses do bad things. Very bad things."
J&J said in court that its marketing and promotion of pain medications were "appropriate and responsible." The company provided testimony from doctors and current and former employees who said the company's marketing practices were appropriate.
Read the full ruling here.
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eadf60e3f530a7d1b305e37b75964be6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/how-to-keep-your-old-phone-running-like-new.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1wlZ05NDi3LQwdmcsNX5dWZdDQjMR7owwLqHvVqVY30MXBsyttD_fcXkc | You don't need a new phone, so here's how to keep your old one running like new | You don't need a new phone, so here's how to keep your old one running like new
A customer compares the iPhone SE (left) and the iPhone 6S (right) at an Apple Store in Hangzhou, China.VCG | VCG | Getty Images
The more I talk to people about their phones, the more I learn that most seem to be pretty happy with the model they own. And analysts say folks are holding on to iPhones for three or four years, longer than ever.
Most smartphones released in the past few years have cameras that are good enough and solid battery life and can still perform the necessary functions of a more expensive phone, like surf the web, stream movies and music and provide access to the latest apps. Most of the time, you don't really need a new phone.
So, if you're perfectly happy with the one you own, even if it's a couple of years old, here's how you can keep it running as long as possible.
Apple iPhone Xs and iPhone Xs MaxCNBC | Magdalena Petrova
Make sure you're always running the latest software. Updates are usually issued to fix security problems, squash software bugs and improve performance. I've heard complaints about some older phones, usually about four years in age, slowing down with the latest software, but sometimes that's the trade-off for making sure you have all of the latest features introduced by Google's Android or Apple. At this point, it might be worth considering an upgrade, but until then, keep applying regular updates.
You can update an iPhone by going to Settings > General > Software Update. It varies on different Android phones, but typically you should be able to find it in Settings > System > Advanced > Software Update.
See which apps you don't even use.Todd Haselton | CNBC
Another reason people usually tell me they need a new phone: They're running out of space. I have an entire guide on how to free up space on your iPhone, but here are a few more tips.
Pictures and videos can hog a ton, so consider using Google Photos or Apple Photos, which back up your pictures and videos to the cloud and let you free up loads of space on your phone.
Apple Photos is free until you use up 5GB of your iCloud storage, after which plans start at 99 cents per month for 50GB of storage. Google Photos has free unlimited storage, but lowers the quality of your photos. If you want to upload full high-quality images and run out of your free 15GB of Google One storage, consider buying more. Google One plans start at $1.99/month for 100GB of storage.
You should also free up space by deleting apps you don't use.
To free up space on your iPhone, do this:
Open Settings.Tap General.Choose iPhone StorageThe apps that take up the most space are listed up top, so move through and delete the ones you don't use.
It varies on different Android phones, but to free up space on your phone, try this:
Open Settings.Choose Storage.Tap Free Up Space.Remove the apps and downloads you don't use.
The apps using up battery on my iPhone.Todd Haselton | CNBC
Maybe your battery life seems to be worse than it used to be. This could be the case, and I'll address getting a new battery in the next step. But sometimes it's just an app that's eating more than its fair share of your power. To find out what's using your battery life, do this.
On an iPhone:
Open SettingsTap Battery.Scroll down.See the "Battery Usage by App" section.Remove apps you don't need that are eating a lot of battery, or limit how often you use them.
It varies on Android by phone, but try this:
Open Settings.Tap Battery.Tap the menu icon on the top-right.Choose "Battery Usage."See which apps are using the most battery and either remove them or limit how much you're using those apps.
You might see this option if your battery is aging.Todd Haselton | CNBC
Android users are a little out of luck here, at least in terms of simply walking into a store and getting a new battery. But Apple offers a battery replacement program that can help keep your older devices running longer. First, you want to check your battery health. Do this:
Open SettingsTap Battery.Choose Battery Health.
If your iPhone says it is no longer performing at peak performance capability, or if your maximum capacity is well below 90 percent, consider buying a replacement using Apple's battery replacement program.
If your iPhone is still in warranty or covered by Apple Care, Apple will replace the battery for free. If it's out of warranty, expect to pay $69 for an iPhone X, iPhone XS, iPhone XS Max or iPhone XR battery. Expect to pay $49 for a replacement battery for any other older iPhone.
A cracked phone.Tyler Finck | Getty Images
The other reason people often tell me they need a new phone is that they've cracked their screen or damaged their phone. You can prevent this by using a screen protector and a case. I like Best Buy's in-store brand, Insignia, which makes affordable but really good screen protectors that don't bubble and are easy to apply.
If you're prone to damaging your phone, also consider buying an insurance plan that covers accidental damage. This typically costs around $11 per month from your carrier, but there are better options. Samsung has its own 24/7 premium care plans for its phones, while Apple Care+ offers repairs for accidental damage, theft and more. There's a $29 deductible for screen damage, a $99 deductible for other damage that might require a replacement, and a $199 - $269 deductible depending on your phone model if it's lost entirely.
VIDEO4:3304:33Watch CNBC's Todd Haselton's iPhone XR reviewSquawk Box
Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech product news.
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71cd171a770a162cf3dfc17aef64cfa1 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/the-bbc-will-launch-a-digital-voice-assistant-in-2020.html | The BBC will launch a digital voice assistant next year — and it will be available on all devices | The BBC will launch a digital voice assistant next year — and it will be available on all devices
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) will launch a digital voice assistant in 2020, but rather than deploying a separate piece of hardware, it will work across different devices.
People will be able to listen to content via their mobile phone, TV and smart speakers, according to a report on the BBC's website.
BBC staff are recording their own voices to help train the assistant to recognize different accents, the report said.
Instead of producing a new smart speaker device, the BBC will embed its voice technology into its website and its on-demand iPlayer app. The working title for the "wake" word is "Beeb," the BBC said in an emailed statement.
"Much like we did with (on-demand service) BBC iPlayer, we want to make sure everyone can benefit from this new technology, and bring people exciting new content, programs and services — in a trusted, easy-to-use way," a spokesperson said in the BBC's own report.
Whether people will be able to use Alexa on their Amazon Echo, for example, and then "switch" to the BBC's voice assistant on the same device isn't clear at the moment, as the technology is still being developed, according to a spokesperson CNBC contacted by phone. But it could be similar to how someone switches between apps that they tap to access on their smartphones, for example, which might involve the BBC doing deals with different voice-activated device makers.
The BBC is already present on Google Home and Amazon Echo, but having its own voice assistant means the BBC would be freer to create the content it wants to — its current content is bound to an extent by the constraints that Amazon puts on it, for example.
"The BBC already has a successful relationship with other providers in order to provide access to BBC services through voice enabled devices. With an assistant of its own, the BBC will have the freedom to experiment with new programmes, features and experiences without someone else's permission to build it in a certain way. It will also allow the BBC to be much more ambitious in the content and features that listeners can enjoy," the statement said.
VIDEO12:5912:59How virtual assistants have evolved, and why Siri lags behind the othersTech
People can also listen to the BBC via the TuneIn radio app on Alexa, a deal which is ending on August 30, because information on who is listening is not shared with the BBC. When the BBC works with third parties on content distribution, it asks them to provide data on who is listening — or asks people to sign in to their BBC account. This is so it can gather audience data to make more relevant programs and "something for all audiences," according to the BBC's Director of Distribution and Business Development Kieran Clifton, in an online statement.
Creating its own assistant is also likely to be a bet on a future where rising numbers of people will be using their voice to operate smart TVs, smart speakers and wearable devices, and are likely to want to pick up where they left off on different gadgets. According to Juniper Research, the number of voice assistants used by consumers globally will rise to 8 billion by 2023, up from about 2.5 billion at the end of 2018.
New companies will emerge that are solely available via voice, according to venture capitalist Mark Tluszcz, co-founder and CEO of Mangrove Capital Partners. He told CNBC in April that voice recognition is a "cataclysmic change to the user experience." Amazon, Baidu and Google dominate the market for smart speakers, according to consultancy Canalys, and Facebook is working on a rival assistant, it was revealed in April.
Like other broadcasters, the BBC is investing in new technology as viewing habits shift. In July, it announced its new streaming service BritBox will launch at the end of the year, a partnership with commercial station ITV. But unlike the BBC's other services, which are covered by an annual license fee of £154.50 ($189.62), BritBox will cost £5.99 ($7.50) per month.
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6dafa720823abc21dfcfffc1cfbf7fc2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/28/your-first-trade-for-wednesday-august-28.html | VIDEO1:0201:02Final Trade: KMI, MO, and moreFast Money
The "Fast Money" traders shared their first moves for the market open.
Pete Najarian was a buyer of Kinder Morgan.
Tim Seymour was a buyer of Altria.
Dan Nathan was a seller of the Financials ETF.
Guy Adami was a buyer of Blackstone.
Disclosure
Trader disclosure: Pete is long calls ALLY, BBBY, CNHI, CTL, DISCA, DOCU, ETRN, EWZ, FCX, FHN, FXI, GDX, GLD, GLW, GOLD, MDLZ, MDT, MO, MSFT, OXY, PAAS, QEP, SLV, SNAP, TSLA, TWTR, WPM. Pete is long stock AAPL, BAC, BZH, C, CASY, CYRX, DIS, FB, FUL, GOOS, IBM, INTC, KMI, KR, KO, LK, LULU, LUV, MMM, MPC, MRK, MSFT, MU, NFLX, PEP, PFE, QSR, RCL, RVLV, TGT, UAL, UPS, UPWK, USB, WYNN. XOM. Pete owns GE, EEM, XLI puts. Dan Nathan is Long EA Sept call calendar. DIS Sept call calendar. EEM Oct put spread. XLF Oct put spread. XRT Oct put spread. Guy Adami is long CELG, EXAS, GDX, INTC. Guy Adami's wife, Linda Snow, works at Merck.Tim Seymour is long AMZN, AAPL, ACBFF, ACRGF, AMZA, ACB, APC, APH, BA, BABA, BAC, BIDU, BX, C, CCJ, CGC, CLF, CMG, CNTTF, CRLBF, CRON, CSCO, CWEB, CURLF, DAL, DIS, DPZ, DVYE, DYME, EEM, EUFN, EWM, FB, FDX, FXI, GE, GILD, GM, GOOGL, GTBIF,GTII, GWPH, HAL, HEXO, HK.APH, HRVOF, HVT, HYYDF, INTC, ITHUF, JD, KHRNF, KRO, KSHB, LEAF, LNTH, MAT, MCD, MJNE, MO, MOS, MPEL, MPX, MRMD, NKE, OGI, ORGMF, OTC, PAK, PHM, PYPL, RH, RL, SBUX, SQ, STZ, T, TER, TIF, TGOD, TNYBF, TRSSF, TRST, TWTR, UA, UAL, VALE, VIAB, VOD, X, XRT, YNDX, 700. Tim is short IWM, RACE, SPY, TSLA. Tim's firm is long CGC, HEXO, CRON, APH. Tim is on the advisory board of Green Organic Dutchman, Heaven, Kushco, Dionymed, Tikun Olam, CCTV, and Canndescent. Tim is the portfolio manager of the Cannabis ETF — CNBS. Stocks in the ETF must be legal in the countries in which they operate: CGC.N, ACB.TO, GWPH.O, OGI.V, CWEB, LABS.CCP, APH.TO, RIV.V, CF.TO, ZYNE.OQ, VFF.TO, CARA.O, NEPT US, KHRN.V, FIRE.TO, TLRY.O, PCLO.V, WMD.V, ZENA.ALP, EMH.V, FLWR.CXX, IIPR.K, ARNA.O, HEXO.TO, VIVO.V, NRTH.V PKI, XLY.V, YCBD US, ALEF.TO
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25530f456ec63151e8d2668c8420a3f6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/fast-food-restaurants-in-america-are-losing-100percent-of-workers-every-year.html | Panera is losing nearly 100% of its workers every year as fast-food turnover crisis worsens | Panera is losing nearly 100% of its workers every year as fast-food turnover crisis worsens
The bakery racks at the counter of Panera Bread in Monroe, New York.Waring Abbott | Getty Images
If you think it sounds like a mathematical impossibility for a company to lose more than 100% of its workers every year, you've never worked in the fast-food industry. At fast-food restaurants, losing 100% of employees — and then losing still more of the employees hired to replace those workers — is a common, and worsening, labor problem.
The case of Panera Bread shows just how deep the employee turnover issue is for restaurant companies. Panera loses close to 100% of workers every year, and by fast-food industry standards that's considered good.
"In the restaurant industry, turnover is 130%, turning over more than a full workforce every year," said Panera bread CFO Michael Bufano at CNBC's @Work Human Capital + Finance conference in July. "We are a little under 100%, but still a huge number."
The official Bureau of Labor Statistics turnover rate for the restaurant sector was 81.9% for the 2015–2017 period, but industry estimates are much higher, reaching 150%, and the problem has gotten worse in recent years. "It's definitely been going up," said Rosemary Batt, chair of HR Studies and International & Comparative Labor at the Cornell School of Industrial Labor Relations.
Batt said decades of fast-food industry efforts to standardize and "routinize" jobs — take the skill out of them — has been intended to create turnover-proof jobs. "If you lose someone, it is not a real cost, because they are so easily replaceable. ... The industry has thrived on this HR model of turnover-proof jobs for many years, because they could get away with it," she said, through a slack labor market or absorbing the cost of high turnover. But that model is being stretched.
"Now turnover is absolutely excessive, and some chains are beginning to put numbers on the cost of turnover. I know some chains that are focused on it," Batt said. "Because turnover is getting so serious and because chains have the ability to do the HR analytics, they can begin to cost out turnover and say, 'This is not a cost we have taken seriously, because historically we were counting on high turnover model as acceptable.'"
For more on tech, transformation and the future of work, join CNBC at the @ Work: People + Machines Summit in San Francisco on Nov. 4. Leaders from Dropbox, Sas, McKinsey and more will teach us how to balance the needs of today with the possibilities of tomorrow, and the winning strategies to compete.
How much does turnover cost? According to Batt, the rule of thumb in estimating the expense can be broken down into a few simple parts: the time it takes a manager to hire a worker, the time it takes to train a worker, and the time it takes for them to become proficient on a job — in fast food, that is measured in one to two months, and during that period of time, half of the pay should be considered a loss. And there are less tangible costs: organizational disruption and team disruption.
"If people get beyond 90 days, turnover really drops, and so that's why we make investments in technology and training in those first 90 days. It has a huge return," the Panera CFO said at the CNBC event in Chicago. "Turnover and recruiting costs you money and is felt in the guest experience."
Robin B. DiPietro, director of the International Institute for Foodservice Research and Education at the University of South Carolina's School of Hotel, Restaurant and Tourism Management, says that six years ago, when she was in touch with Burger King, the average cost of turnover was about $600 per employee.
Cornell's Batt said a survey of restaurants she helped conduct in 2013 put the cost of fast-food turnover at $1,600 per worker, and that was at a time when turnover was significantly lower.
The turnover cost estimates have kept going up.
The cost per employee now is estimated by the National Restaurant Association at $2,000 per employee. Those figures will vary by restaurant type as fast-food employees are still less expensive to turn over than those in upscale dining. Restaurant research firm TDn2K calculated replacement costs at $2,100 to $2,800. But all operators feel the pinch of the deepening turnover crisis, especially with a higher minimum wage, and higher recurring business costs.
"This is an industry issue across the board, and it's getting worse with the labor market tighter," said David Portalatin, NPD Group vice president and food industry advisor. "Restaurants will increasingly look to technology to solve the problem. Both technology to train and automate."
As far back as 2003, McDonald's tested kiosks to place orders.
Much has changed in the industry since then, but some basic economics remain unchanged: Restaurants are pressured by rising costs and the ability to pass that on to consumers. The average cost of a restaurant meal increased 2.4% in the last 12 months, according to NPD data, more than the rate of inflation and cost of a grocery basket, and the rising cost puts pressure on restaurant operators. "The economics dictate you can only pay so much and today's labor market makes it even harder to staff restaurants."
Making customer interactions "frictionless" and automating repetitive tasks in the kitchen would theoretically allow restaurants to be more efficient with labor.
"In China they're way ahead of us in automation in the back of the house and front of house," Portalatin said, referring to the food industry terms for kitchen and customer-facing positions.
Portalatin said there has been a dramatic increase in digital ordering, especially consumers placing orders from mobile phones. Total customer traffic has been flat over the past year, but there has been "a monumental shift" to digital ordering, and NPD Group expects digital orders to increase 23% a year over the next half-decade. Restaurants have an economic incentive to make sure this shift continues to accelerate. Average ticket size from a digital order is higher than a traditional order, which NPD Group attributes, at least in part, to the ability of an app or kiosk to upsell customers and "suggestively sell" based on data collected through digital order histories.
Panera just announced deals with Uber Eats, DoorDash and GrubHub for mobile order delivery. On Wednesday, McDonald's announced the expansion of a deal with DoorDash to reach a total of 10,000 restaurants, which comes at a time when it estimates 2019 delivery revenue will reach $4 billion. McDonald's has a total of over 14,000 U.S. locations.
VIDEO23:5823:58CFO 3.0: Adobe and Panera CFOs sit down with Jon Fortt and CNBC's @Work: Human Capital + Finance SummitAt Work
"Turnover is the biggest problem in the industry," said Jordan Boesch, founder and CEO of 7Shifts, who grew up working in Quiznos locations run by his father. The self-described "quick-service kid" started 7Shifts to provide on-demand staffing and restaurant shift scheduling to restaurants. A survey of workers using its system found that more than half wanted to grow their careers outside the food industry. Only 25% were looking for a promotion in the restaurant space, and that was heavily tilted to cooks.
Some experts believe the rise of the gig economy is hurting restaurants' ability to recruit and retain staff, saying it is harder for any worker to justify punching a clock at a fast food restaurant offering little to no benefits.
But Batt says the gig economy, while a fascinating and growing trend, represents half of 1% of the labor force and is not a primary reason for the fast-food sector's struggle. In fact, 7Shifts is one of many start-ups rushing into the restaurant space as a way to solve staffing woes through on-demand worker networks.
Panera is betting that better training can help. "All training had been in back of kitchen; now it is all on iPhones, and I can see it going to goggles — employees see it right in front of them, training them in a fun and interactive way," Panera CFO Bufano said.
Panera declined to offer any additional details on its plans to reduce employee turnover beyond what its CFO said at the CNBC event. A spokesman said there was reticence to "share details on more of the secret sauce and statistical success."
Experts who have studied the restaurant business for decades and work with national chains are divided over the extent to which fast-food jobs can be made better. Some do not believe there is no formula combining pay, benefits, training and culture that can save the human worker in this sector.
Abraham Pizam, chair in tourism management and the founding dean of Rosen College of Hospitality Management at the University of Central Florida, says his position is not popular among academic peers, but he is convinced the fast-food industry is on a path to be the first to fully automate.
No one who thinks of a job as temporary is motivated.Abraham Pizamfounding dean of Rosen College of Hospitality Management at the University of Central Florida
Low wages, lack of career paths and an overwhelming belief among the working public that fast-food jobs should only ever be temporary all contribute to the worsening turnover issues. "You talk to an employee here in the U.S. and it is nothing to be proud of," he said. "It's a job until I graduate or until I'm back on my feet," he said. "No one who thinks of a job as temporary is motivated."
There are no other job segments in the U.S. that have higher turnover than the fast-food and fast-casual segments of the restaurant industry, according to DiPietro at the University of South Carolina's School of Hotel, Restaurant and Tourism Management. "Not even retail."
She said that's due to the reputation of the restaurant industry. Many people consider these lower jobs than retail due to hours, job responsibilities and uniforms that typically have to be worn. "Even though the pay may be equal, the perception of restaurants is lower than in retail."
It's a devil's bargain for the companies to accept the status quo in turnover, Pizam said, with lower wages justified by their limited ability to pass along price increases to consumers, but in turn, restaurant operators paying the price through the expense of training and retraining of personnel multiple times a year.
"Sooner or later these jobs will disappear. There is no reason a robot can't serve," Pizam said. "In the future, whether 20, 30 or 50 years, only the very top of the restaurant industry will have human beings. Prepared or not, we will see it."
Customers use touchscreen kiosks to order meals at at a KFC restaurant in Shanghai, China. Parent company Yum China says 86% of transactions are cashless and about half of orders are placed via mobile app or digital kiosk at its more than 8,400 KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell restaurants.Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Pizam is not making a short-term bet on full automation. Public acceptance of a humanless food-service experience will take time, as will the redesign of an entire industry so that minimal human contact is a cost-saver — the initial capital expenditures to overhaul operations, not even including the costs of the robots, will be large.
"The counterargument made is that people like to be served by people and there is no substitute to that. You can't flatter a robot. But for the fast-food industry, there is no human contact that is personal at this point, anyway."
"CEOs of these companies understand where we are going. The ultimate solution is robotics. In the long-run it's menial work and they will admit they can't satisfy employees and it costs too much in terms of the turnover cycle. Once trained, a robot, if done right — that is years of high productivity. But if they admit that, then it is like saying we failed and no one wants to say that."
"I don't think training can be a game-changer," Boesch of 7Shifts said. "The bigger determining factor for someone to stay with you is if they see a future there."
Boesch said the big food chains are overly confident: They think they are better at training than they actually are, and as a result, they recruit and hire the wrong people. Citing Jim Sullivan, a well-known restaurant consultant, Boesch said hiring is 90% of the equation and training only 10%. "There is no way to develop the wrong person."
VIDEO4:5804:58McDonald's CEO Steve Easterbrook on digital kiosks, mobile ordering and moreSquawk Alley
For the customer-facing positions that are most at risk, Boesch said the best chance of retaining staff is by doing more than just offering competitive wages and hiring people who have personalities that are conducive to service. These personality types want to be engaged and work as part of teams, and they want shift hours that suit their lives outside of work. "The No. 1 thing is interest in the people. ... Pay is important, but would you go across the street to get 50 cents more if it's a toxic culture?"
"I think it is going to happen for quick service first for sure, full automation," Boesch said. "To me it is not a matter of if, it is when. These QSRs [quick-service restaurants] are almost going to become like 7-Eleven, a giant vending machine. I don't know when, but for QSR I feel like it is not astronomically far, but it is not close, either," he said, with the biggest uncertainty not being the pace of innovation but whether automated systems can meet food safety and regulation requirements. "With the introduction of more ordering kiosks, it feels like the writing is on the wall a little bit," Boesch said.
Cornell labor expert Batt is skeptical of the robot argument. "I totally disagree with the future being 100% robot. It will take decades to get to a place where kiosks will have such a major effect."
Batt said that the fast-food industry, which faces steep price competition, is handicapped by the inability to raise wages much, as well as its limited career advancement opportunities. It also has little history of offering competitive benefits. Only 14% of all fast-food restaurants offer sick leave, and only 16% offer paid time off.
An increase in wages mandated by a higher federal minimum wage could lead restaurants to invest more in training, a trend already playing out in many states. "When companies are faced with that kind of hard increase in cost, they have to look for ways to retain workers more in order to justify the wage increase, how to get more effort or better quality, service, and productivity, and that leads them to invest more in training."
She said the labor problems can be solved by methods other than robots, such as chains putting more effort into hiring better managers and treating workers with more respect. That requires companies being willing to give workers more hours and more predictable scheduling. "That is not very costly for HR to invest in. It just takes managers to be frankly more competent and pay more attention to the issue. ... Maybe they won't optimize labor costs to the extent they want to, but it will pay off in lower turnover and more satisfies workers and better operations. That should not be hard problem to fix."
Another potential solution used in other countries is the development of relationships with higher-end companies in the same sector, or what she referred to as a "cross-establishment career ladder."
"That way workers do have an incentive to stay and shows qualifications that can move them up. ... If McDonald's would get a worker to stay for year that would be a huge improvement," Batt said.
McDonald's said no executive was available to comment, but a company spokeswoman pointed to several initiatives it has undertaken to confront staffing issues, including a workplace preparedness study, youth employment program, and educational assistance opportunities for employees.
A major decline in teenagers and college students working in the U.S. and in fast food specifically are factors. Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that in 1950, the labor force participation rate for 16- to 19-year-olds was 52.5%. It reached a high of 58.9% in 1978, dropped to 52% in 2000 and hovered at 34% between 2010 and 2018. The median age of the restaurant worker between 2005 and 2017 was 29, meaning that one-half of all workers in the sector were older than that, with many families raising children on restaurant incomes and benefits. During this same period, teen employment in restaurants plummeted to 17.8%.
The first, fully automated restaurant in the U.S. already exists — or at least, it did.
Eatsa, a quinoa-bowl automat chain that started in San Francisco in 2015 and expanded to New York, shuttered its locations and has since transitioned to a new business model and been renamed Brightloom. The restaurant tech company focuses on helping other restaurants improve operations through use of technology.
Adam Brotman, a former Starbucks executive who in April took over the CEO reins at Brightloom, said although the automated restaurant run preceded his tenure, it was not a failure — some press accounts pegged it as one.
Brotman said the reasoning for the business pivot was a recognition by the company and its backers that all of the money being invested in order management and menu-management technology, and digitization of the customer experience — both out of store and in-store — would lead to a better return on investment as a technology company rather than restaurant operator.
Brotman said that for the first time next year, orders placed off-premise may equal in-store orders. "It's an amazing stat. Half of the restaurant food consumed."
McDonalds' largest acquisition in 20 years was made in March when it acquired Dynamic Yield, which creates personalization and decision logic technology, to help with digital drive-through order optimization. The fast-food giant also is spending $1 billion this year to upgrade 2,000 locations with kiosks and other technology.
But Brotman said the increasing use of technology does not lead him to conclude that restaurant best practice will be "all one or the other."
"Kiosks are great to break up the line and help drive larger sales. They upsell better and they allow you to deploy labor to optimal throughout. Really what we are seeing is a combination of front-of-the-house automation with traditional human customer experience at the point-of-sales or handoff lane, counter. That combination is ideal for quite a while."
In order to keep the Big Mac price below $10, they will need to add technology to the restaurants and decrease the number of employees in order to ensure that they can continue to open each day.Robin DiPietrodirector of the International Institute for Foodservice Research and Education at the University of South Carolina
Batt said the Paneras of the food sector can lead the way.
"Many, even in the fast-food arena are looking for ways to upscale a little, as in the Paneras of the world, and that segment of QSR does have more wiggle room, looking to compete more on quality and service, and it pays for them to be looking into better HR practices. If the industry starts there and they set a model, then we will see others follow suit."
Danny Meyer of Union Hospitality Group has been experimenting with many ways to retain employees at restaurants he owned, which include Shake Shack, from a four-day workweek to a hiring model for customer service positions that focuses on personality assessments.
At Panera all executives complete a short tour of duty working a frontline job in a restaurant location. "Everyone who sits on corporate side works in cafe for a few weeks. I was a terrible barista but good salad maker," Bufano said.
University of South Carolina restaurant sector expert DiPietro, who worked in fast food for 20 years and started her professional career making drinks before moving up to restaurant manager and district manager, said technology has been talked about in fast food since she entered the field in 1980. "They said that robots were going to take our jobs even then; they did not."
"In order to keep the Big Mac price below $10, they will need to add technology to the restaurants, and decrease the number of employees in order to ensure that they can continue to open each day. Drink stations that are automated, ordering kiosks (similar to airports), automated fryers and broilers will help, but they cannot take the people fully out of the restaurant."
Labor academics like Batt and DiPietro say for restaurants to fully address the turnover issues, they need to focus on people, plus robots.
"Look at the hours of the restaurant. Do we need to have 24-hour McDonald's? If we do, can we have robots run the night shift? Turning the industry around may be as simple as having more restaurants providing tuition reimbursement for employees, employee-designed uniforms, pay differential for nights and weekends, robots doing the menial, non-guest contact tasks," Batt said.
Brightloom's Brotman, who comes from the Howard Schultz school of employee management, said Starbucks may be an outlier in offering healthcare, stock options and free online college education to employees, but it should also be an inspiration.
"I don't think there is a single answer on how everyone should do it. Automation can help with the issue, but I talk about digital tools to allow people to spend their time connecting with customers rather than doing menial tasks. People you have doing the job they want to do, which is ultimately the best use of time. ... I don't think the restaurant business is thinking about it as 'we just need to replace people with technology.'"
It might also help if more respect for the fast food worker came from the dining public, according to the most-vehement prognosticators of the inevitable rise of the robot in the kitchen and at the counter. "I've been in thousands of fast food restaurants but never seen someone say to a manager, 'I want to report that this worker was fantastic.' Especially the counter," Pizam said.
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81e6f25f396096796b53c3665a8f2662 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/29/intel-says-russian-explosion-was-not-from-nuclear-powered-missile-test.html | US intel report says mysterious Russian explosion was triggered by recovery mission of nuclear-powered missile, not a test | US intel report says mysterious Russian explosion was triggered by recovery mission of nuclear-powered missile, not a test
Russian President Vladimir Putin watches the Red Square Victory Day Parade, on May 9, 2019 in Moscow, Russia.Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images News | Getty Images
WASHINGTON — A U.S. intelligence assessment found that the mysterious explosion off of Russia's northern coast occurred during a recovery mission to salvage a nuclear-powered missile from the ocean floor, according to people with direct knowledge of the report.
The mysterious explosion on Aug. 8 killed five scientists and sparked fears that Russia had tested its new nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile, also known as Skyfall.
"This was not a new launch of the weapon, instead it was a recovery mission to salvage a lost missile from a previous test," said a person with direct knowledge of the U.S. intelligence assessment. "There was an explosion on one of the vessels involved in the recovery and that caused a reaction in the missile's nuclear core which lead to the radiation leak," said another person, who spoke to CNBC on the condition of anonymity.
The U.S. intelligence report did not mention potential health or environmental risks posed by damage to the missile's nuclear reactor.
CNBC learned last year of Moscow's similar preparations to try to recover a nuclear-powered missile lost at sea. Crews attempted to recover a missile that landed in the Barents Sea after a failed test. The operation included three vessels, one of which is equipped to handle radioactive material from the weapon's nuclear core. If the Russians were able to regain possession of the missile, U.S. intelligence analysts expected that Moscow will use the procedure as a blueprint for future recovery operations.
Read more: Russia is preparing to search for a nuclear-powered missile that was lost at sea after a failed test
Last March, Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled a slew of hypersonic weapons, as well as Burevestnik, saying it was a nuclear-powered missile with unlimited range. However, the Kremlin has yet to perform a successful test of the weapon over multiple attempts, according to sources with direct knowledge of a U.S. intelligence report on the weapons program.
Burevestnik was tested once earlier this year and prior to that, the weapon was tested four times between November 2017 and February 2018, each resulting in a crash.
The U.S. determined that the longest test flight lasted just more than two minutes, with the missile flying 22 miles before losing control and crashing. The shortest test lasted four seconds and flew for five miles.
The tests apparently showed that the nuclear-powered heart of the cruise missile failed to initiate and, therefore, the weapon was unable to achieve the indefinite flight Putin had boasted about.
What's more, CNBC learned in March that the Kremlin will only produce a few of these weapons because the program has yet to complete a successful test and is too expensive to develop.
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962f6fcd5a113e2a5e882f23b3cc0701 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/japan-south-korea-trade-war-a-sign-of-collapsing-world-order-expert.html | Japan-South Korea dispute is a sign that the world order is 'collapsing,' says trade expert | Japan-South Korea dispute is a sign that the world order is 'collapsing,' says trade expert
VIDEO3:1803:18The global order is now 'collapsing': Asian Trade CentreSquawk Box Asia
The trade conflict between Japan and South Korea is a sign that the global order "is now collapsing," according to Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre.
The two Asian countries are currently locked in a trade dispute that flared up in July when Japan restricted exports of high-tech materials to South Korea which are critical for producing semiconductors and display screens.
Since then, the two sides have threatened to drop each other from their respective preferential list of trusted trade partners, paving the way for potentially lengthy licensing processes — Japan's threat took effect on Wednesday. As things escalated, South Korea also scrapped a military intelligence-sharing pact with Japan.
"I think that this Japan-Korea incident is a symptom of what happens when a system starts to collapse," Elms told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. "You have trade disputes that escalate and there's no hand brake anymore, so they roll over into security disputes — and then again, there's no hand brake, so they can continue to percolate and there's no obvious way to end them."
"We are at a situation that, to be honest, really could have been reined in at any point, should have been reined in at some point ... and yet doesn't seem to be stopping," said Elms, whose projects include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), according to the Asian Trade Centre.
South Koreans participate in a rally to denounce Japan's new trade restrictions and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on August 24, 2019 in Seoul, South Korea.Chung Sung-Jun | Getty Images
Elms said the tensions between Seoul and Tokyo were "like two neighbors arguing over who planted the tree on the property line that is now encroaching on both sides."
"While we're arguing about a tree that is on the property line, there is a forest fire on the ridge line," Elms said.
Tensions between the two countries hark back more than six decades, since Japan occupied the Korean Peninsula from 1910 to 1945 during World War II. Both countries signed a treaty in 1965 — but relations continue to be strained over compensation for forced labor by Japanese companies and sexual slavery of Korean women in wartime brothels.
The ongoing trade fight between the U.S. and China has rattled world markets and raised concerns over the global outlook. Late last week, both Washington and Beijing announced new tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other's goods.
"I think there are many things at this point that could derail the system," Elms said, when commenting on the current global order. "Anything can happen," she said citing countries such as the U.S. that are "less respectful of the rules-based system."
She said that when rules and norms break down, "lots of things change."
"I think, we're at that moment where things are starting to shift."
With a system that's facing multiple threats and "no anchor," policymakers have been left unclear on how to respond amid rising uncertainty and risk, Elms said.
— Reuters contributed to this report.
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bd984003ea969cec4a1c710562b176e8 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/reuters-america-exclusive-amid-crisis-china-rejected-hong-kong-plan-to-appease-protesters--sources.html | Amid crisis, China rejected Hong Kong plan to appease protesters, sources say | Amid crisis, China rejected Hong Kong plan to appease protesters, sources say
Police officers point their guns toward protesters after a clash, at Tsuen Wan, in Hong Kong, August 25, 2019.Tyrone Siu | Reuters
Earlier this summer, Carrie Lam, the chief executive of Hong Kong, submitted a report to Beijing that assessed protesters' five key demands and found that withdrawing a contentious extradition bill could help defuse the mounting political crisis in the territory.
The Chinese central government rejected Lam's proposal to withdraw the extradition bill and ordered her not to yield to any of the protesters' other demands at that time, three individuals with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
China's role in directing how Hong Kong handles the protests has been widely assumed, supported by stern statements in state media about the country's sovereignty and protesters' "radical" goals.
Beijing's rebuff of Lam's proposal for how to resolve the crisis, detailed for the first time by Reuters, represents concrete evidence of the extent to which China is controlling the Hong Kong government's response to the unrest.
The Chinese central government has condemned the protests and accused foreign powers of fuelling unrest. The Foreign Ministry has repeatedly warned other nations against interfering in Hong Kong, reiterating that the situation there is an "internal affair."
Lam's report on the tumult, made before an Aug. 7 meeting in Shenzhen about Hong Kong led by senior Chinese officials that examined the feasibility of the five demands of the protesters, analysing how conceding to some of these might quiet things down, the individuals with direct knowledge said.
In addition to the withdrawal of the extradition bill, the other demands analysed in the report were: an independent inquiry into the protests; fully democratic elections; dropping of the term "riot" in describing protests; and dropping charges against those arrested so far.
The withdrawal of the bill and an independent inquiry were seen to be the most feasible politically, according to a senior government official in the Hong Kong administration, who spoke on condition of anonymity. He said the move was envisioned as helping pacify some of the more moderate protesters who have been angered by Lam's silence.
The extradition bill is one of the key issues that has helped drive the protests, which have drawn millions of people into the streets of Hong Kong. Lam has said the bill is "dead," but has refused to say explicitly that it has been "withdrawn."
VIDEO1:2601:26Twitter suspends accounts from China suspected of undermining protests in Hong KongPower Lunch
Beijing told Lam not to withdraw the bill, or to launch an inquiry into the tumult, including allegations of excessive police force, according to the senior government official.
Another of the three individuals, who has close ties with senior officials in Hong Kong and also declined to be identified, confirmed the Hong Kong government had submitted the report.
"They said no" to all five demands, said the source. "The situation is far more complicated than most people realise."
The third individual, a senior Chinese official, said that the Hong Kong government had submitted the report to the Central Co-ordination Group for Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, a high-level group led by Politburo Standing Committee member Han Zheng, and that President Xi Jinping was aware of it.
The official confirmed that Beijing had rejected giving in to any of the protesters' demands and wanted Lam's administration to take more initiative.
In a statement responding to Reuters, Lam's office said her government had made efforts to address protesters' concerns, but did not comment directly on whether it had made such a proposal to Beijing, or received instructions.
Written questions to China's Foreign Ministry were referred to the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office (HKMAO), a high-level bureau under China's State Council. HKMAO did not respond to a faxed request for comment.
Reuters has not seen the report. The news agency also was unable to establish the precise timing of the rejection.
The two Hong Kong sources said the report was submitted between June 16 - the day after Lam announced the suspension of the extradition bill - and Aug. 7, when the HKMAO and China's representative Liaison Office in Hong Kong held a forum in nearby Shenzhen attended by nearly 500 pro-establishment figures and businesspeople from Hong Kong.
The question of Beijing's influence strikes at the heart of Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" governance, which promised the city a high degree of autonomy and wide-ranging freedoms that don't exist in mainland China.
More than two months of protests have embroiled Hong Kong in its most severe crisis since the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
What began as a movement to oppose the extradition bill, which would have allowed people to be sent to China for trial in Communist Party controlled courts, has morphed into a broader campaign for greater rights and democracy in a direct challenge to Beijing.
Ip Kwok-him, a senior pro-Beijing politician who sits on Hong Kong's elite Executive Council, which advises senior officials, including Lam, told Reuters that "if the central government won't allow something, you can't do it." Ip did not know about the proposal to withdraw the bill.
A senior businessman who attended the Shenzhen meeting and has met with Lam recently said "her hands are tied" and Beijing wouldn't let her withdraw the bill. The businessman spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.
At the Shenzhen meeting, Zhang Xiaoming, the head of the HKMAO, said in televised public remarks that if the turmoil persisted, "the central government must intervene."
Since then, there have been signs of Beijing taking a harder line.
For instance, officials have likened some protests to "terrorism," Chinese paramilitary police have conducted drills near the border, several Hong Kong companies have been pressured to suspend staff supporting the protests, and security personnel have searched the digital devices of some travellers entering China.
On Friday, Joshua Wong, a prominent democracy activist, was arrested, according to his political party, Demosisto.
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732b5b497e1cfebb1d4da925935d5d3f | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/the-10-best-us-cities-for-an-early-retirement.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar | Retiring early? These 10 US cities could be your best bet | Retiring early? These 10 US cities could be your best bet
Source: SmartAsset
Retiring early can take some careful financial planning, especially in a era when many Americans have to keep working not only past 65 but well into their 70s just to make ends meet.
Where you decide to settle down to ease into your golden years is a huge factor in just how far your savings will stretch. Low taxes and expenses are ideal, especially when paired with a high quality of life, excellent medical facilities and abundant activities options.
Personal finance company SmartAsset has compiled a list of the 10 best U.S. cities for early retirement, weighing metrics as varied as the effective income tax rate for retirees, the average cost of a silver health insurance plan for a 60-year-old, the concentration of nearby medical facilities and crime statistics.
WHL | Getty Images
"We crunched the numbers to find the cities where early retirees can stretch their savings with lower taxes and affordable housing, while still having access to doctors and entertainment," said AJ Smith, vice president of financial education at SmartAsset. "We also considered general livability factors like unemployment and safety."
SmartAsset found that seven of the 10 cities topping its list offer "favorable tax environments for early retirees." Cities in Florida and Nevada — with no state income tax, extra deductions for retirement income and reasonable sales and property taxes — were particular standouts.
The firm did not consider weather in the rankings but, in a happy coincidence, many of the finalists also offer pleasant temperatures year round. They also tended to clump in certain states.
More from Personal Finance:The 10 safest countries for retirementThe best places in the U.S. to buy a vacation homeWhat to know about Medicare if you're nearing 65
"The data show that there are good options nationwide for workers to pursue an affordable early retirement but the top-ranking cities tend to be located in three states: Nevada, Arizona and Kentucky," added Smith.
Here's a look at SmartAsset's list of the most affordable cities for early retirement:
Effective retiree tax rate: 9.42%Annual health insurance cost: $9,396Housing cost as percentage of income: 21.72%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.60%State/local tax rate: 8.25%
Effective retiree tax rate: 10.8%Annual health insurance cost: $10,860Housing cost as percentage of income: 20.69%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.57%State/local tax rate: 7.8%
Chandler, ArizonaDenisTangneyJr | iStock | Getty Images
Effective retiree tax rate: 9.42%Annual health insurance cost: $10,656Housing cost as percentage of income: 18.13%Avg. effective property tax rate: 1.62%State/local tax rate: 8.25%
Effective retiree tax rate: 9.42%Annual health insurance cost: $9,396Housing cost as percentage of income: 23.24%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.63%State/local tax rate: 8.25%
The Las Vegas Strip in Clark County, Nevada.Eric Lo | Moment | Getty Images
Effective retiree tax rate: 10.23%Annual health insurance cost: $8,472Housing cost as percentage of income: 23.19%Avg. effective property tax rate: 1.32%State/local tax rate: 7%
Effective retiree tax rate: 10.8%Annual health insurance cost: $10,860Housing cost as percentage of income: 22.38%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.54%State/local tax rate: 8.3%
Effective retiree tax rate: 10.17%Annual health insurance cost: $10,284Housing cost as percentage of income: 19.77%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.97%State/local tax rate: 6%
Effective retiree tax rate: 10.6%Annual health insurance cost: $9,432Housing cost as percentage of income: 20.02%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.92%State/local tax rate: 6%
Louisville, Kentucky, No. 8 on SmartAssets list of best cities for early retirement.Sean Pavone | iStock | Getty Images
Effective retiree tax rate: 12.35%Annual health insurance cost: $8,364Housing cost as percentage of income: 18.44%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.92%State/local tax rate: 7%
Effective retiree tax rate: 9.42%Annual health insurance cost: $12,420Housing cost as percentage of income: 21.98%Avg. effective property tax rate: 0.75%State/local tax rate: 7%
VIDEO2:3102:31How much you'll need to save a month to retire with a millionInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
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81700cd8ac33608fe17b23106edd741d | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/review-the-2019-mercedes-g550-suv-redefines-the-luxury-off-road-experience.html | Review: The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUV redefines the luxury, off-road experience | Review: The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUV redefines the luxury, off-road experience
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
Mercedes first build the Geländewagen, which literally translates to off-road or all-terrain vehicle, as a military vehicle for the King of Iran.
Repurposed for civilians in 1979, that rugged, archaic first-generation G-Wagen would stay in production for 39 years and eventually catch on with rappers, celebrities and Instagram models.
Yet the G-Wagen is a familiar sight in Beverly Hills, a Range Rover rival with more attitude. So when Mercedes finally redesigned it after nearly 40 years, there was a simple guiding principle: don't mess it up. So despite a new body, a massively upgraded interior, better driving dynamics and more space, the 2019 Mercedes-Benz G550 retains the old-school charm and boxy style of the original. It's a winning formula that makes the G-Wagen unlike anything else on the road.
Despite being the oldest design on the market by a few decades, the last Mercedes G-Class set a sales record in 2017. That's in no small part because the G-Class sits at the intersection of two hot markets: trucks and restomods.
Restomodding, for the uninitiated, is the practice of taking old car designs and updating them with modern technology and performance. Singer, for instance, is a California-based company that reimagines Porsche 911s from the 1980s with updated components. Despite conversions starting at $395,000, the company has a two-year waiting list.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
The G550, though, is a restomod that you can have right now. For $153,115 as tested, you get all of the style and coolness of a military off-roader from the 1970s with the comfort and technology of a modern Mercedes. But despite its newfound fame as the go-to shuttle for Hollywood stars, the Benz hasn't forgotten where it came from.
With a meaty brush guard, lots of ground clearance and a full-time four-wheel-drive system with lockable differentials, the G-Wagen is built to handle serious off-roading. The wheels are pushed right up to the corners, which makes climbing steep terrain a non-issue, while a torquey V-8 engine and a low-range gearbox give you the oomph needed to bound up trails.
The $6,500 premium paint job may not encourage you to push it to the limit, but the solidity of the G550 basically begs you to beat on it. On rutted trails or gravel roads, the boxy Benz soaks up abuse at all speeds. It feels more sure-footed and tough than, say, a Range Rover. In fact, the only other truck we've tested with the same eager attitude off-road is the Ford F-150 Raptor.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
But the Raptor didn't have the G550's cabin. Perhaps the biggest improvement over the old G-Class, the interior is filled with plush materials and modern technology. While the old G550 was clearly designed in a pre-infotainment, utilitarian age where cupholders were seen as unnecessary conveniences, the new one takes Mercedes' industry-leading interior design language and makes it more blocky and suitable for the squared-off Geländewagen.
There are two massive displays, a plethora of brushed aluminum trim and lots of open-pore ash wood trim. Especially with the multicolor LED ambient lighting on and the massaging seats working away, it's easy to see this as an interior befitting the $153,115 price.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
Considering that the G550 is more than quick enough to overwhelm the chassis, we probably wouldn't recommend stepping up to the G63 unless you're not fussed about value and want the top-dog G-Class as a status symbol or straight-line dragster.
In general, if you prioritize road manners over style and capability, the G-Wagen probably isn't for you. Despite the major leap forward with the new generation, the G-Class is still an old-school truck at heart. It's not as comfortable, spacious or athletic as high-end crossovers from Land Rover, BMW and even Mercedes itself.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
Finally, we have to say that the G-Wagen is expensive and inefficient on fuel at 17 mpg on highways and 13 mpg in the city. Most prospective buyers looking at a luxurious V-8 German off-roader are probably aware of both of those aspects, but from a purely practical point of view the G-Class is more expensive than SUVs that offer more technology and refinement, albeit nowhere near as much capability or style.
The G-Class starts at $125,495 with the requisite destination charge. While our tester's Desert Sand paint was a $6,500 add-on, there are a lot of good colors available at no extra charge. The $12,200 Exclusive Interior Package, though, is a good way to make the G-Class feel as nice inside as it looks outside. Plus, it's hard to skip massaging seats.
We'd also pay the $850 Mercedes charges to upgrade from traditional gauges to a 12.3-inch configurable cluster that can show navigation, multimedia and driving information. We'd skip the adaptive suspension, as nobody really needs a sport mode in their fridge-shaped SUV. You'll probably end up checking a few cosmetic options to get the G-Class looking like you want it, but figure $137,550 for a G-Class with the options we recommend.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
The G-Wagen is a strange vehicle to recommend in that it is inherently absurd. A V-8 box with 416 horsepower, locking differentials, massaging seats and a design from the 1970s is inherently a weird proposition. There's nothing else like it out there.
And that's what makes it so good. While BMW X5s and Mercedes GLEs blend together, the G-Class is entirely different. It's unique, tons of fun and incredibly competent off-road. Value-conscious shoppers would be better served by traditional luxury crossovers, but if you want capability, status and absurdity, the G-Wagen stands in a class of one.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
Exterior: 5
Interior: 4.5
Driving Experience: 4
Value: 2.5
Overall: 4
Price as tested: $153,115
Ratings out of 5.
The 2019 Mercedes G550 SUVMack Hogan | CNBC
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2352ee486d09dd5b9e6176aaf67934a0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/02/china-economy-caixin-markit-manufacturing-pmi-for-august-2019.html | China's factory activity unexpectedly expands in August, a private survey shows | China's factory activity unexpectedly expands in August, a private survey shows
This photo taken on October 17, 2018 shows a worker inspecting shoes at a factory in Qingdao in China's eastern Shandong province.STR | AFP | Getty Images
China's manufacturing activity expanded in August, according to results of a private survey released on Monday as production increased, but export sales fell amid the country's escalating trade war with the U.S.
The Caixin/Markit factory Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4 in August — better than than the 49.8 analysts polled by Reuters had expected. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.9 in July.
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that signal contraction.
The subindex for new orders stayed in expansionary territory in August, but inched down from July, suggesting flat demand for manufactured products, said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.
However, "the gauge for new export orders remained in contractionary territory and fell to the lowest level this year in August, reflecting declining foreign demand amid an intensifying trade dispute between China and the U.S.," Zhong said in a press release.
The two countries imposed new tariffs on each other's imports on Sunday.
Despite the improved headline PMI reading in August, due in part to improved production activity, the outlook is not rosy with long-term downward pressure, said Zhong.
"Overall demand didn't improve, and foreign demand declined notably, leading product inventories to grow," he wrote. "There was no sign of an improvement in companies' willingness to replenish inventories of inputs or in their confidence. Industrial prices trended down."
The results of the private survey came after official data showed the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in August, China's National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday — that's compared to 49.7 in July. A Reuters poll showed analysts expected the official PMI to stay unchanged from July.
The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises. The Caixin indicator features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms.
The PMI is a survey of how businesses view the operating environment. Such data offer a first glimpse into what's happening in an economy, as they are usually among the first major economic indicators released each month.
The China PMI is closely watched by global investors for signs of trouble amid a domestic economic slowdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute.
Uncertainty looms over the Chinese growth outlook, said Capital Economics analysts on Monday.
"Global demand looks set to weaken further and a long-overdue pull-back in property construction is getting under way," they wrote in a note following the PMI data release.
"The fiscal support currently in the pipeline is unlikely to fully offset these headwinds and we think authorities will have little choice but to roll out further policy easing measures in the coming months," added Julian Evans-Pritchard and Martin Lynge Rasmussen.
— CNBC's Yen Nee Lee and Reuters contributed to this report.
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1593f4a95e1275dc631cc8122cafef2c | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/goldman-sachs-raises-no-deal-brexit-chances.html | Goldman Sachs raises 'no deal' Brexit chances as general election looms | Goldman Sachs raises 'no deal' Brexit chances as general election looms
People walk past the entrance to the Goldman Sachs investment offices on October 10, 2016, in London, England.Getty Images
Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate for the likelihood Britain will crash out of the European Union without a deal to 25% from 20% citing the prolonged suspension of Parliament, as lawmakers decide the fate of the government's Brexit plans.
Goldman said its base case with a 45% probability remained that a close variant of the existing Brexit deal which was rejected three times will pass in the House of Commons.
The bank cut the probability of no Brexit to 30% from 35%.UK lawmakers will decide on Tuesday whether to shunt Britain towards a snap election when they vote on the first stage of their plan to block Prime Minister Boris Johnson from pursuing a no-deal Brexit.
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a319c2434f492fffa4f639b2d451054b | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/kroger-joins-walmart-asks-shoppers-not-to-openly-carry-guns-in-stores.html | Kroger joins Walmart in asking shoppers not to openly carry guns in stores | Kroger joins Walmart in asking shoppers not to openly carry guns in stores
Customers pump gasoline at a Kroger gasoline station in the parking lot of one of the company's grocery stores in Worthington, Ohio in 2006.Gary Gardiner | Getty Images
Kroger on Tuesday followed Walmart in asking shoppers not to openly carry guns in any of its stores, in states where "open carry" is allowed, unless they are authorized law enforcement officers.
The announced changes come amid a wave of deadly shootings in the U.S., including two at Walmart stores this summer.
Both companies are also calling on the government to strengthen background checks.
"Kroger is respectfully asking that customers no longer openly carry firearms into our stores, other than authorized law enforcement officers," Jessica Adelman, group vice president of corporate affairs, said in an emailed statement. "We are also joining those encouraging our elected leaders to pass laws that will strengthen background checks and remove weapons from those who have been found to pose a risk for violence."
"A year ago, Kroger made the conscious decision to completely exit the firearm and ammunition business when we stopped selling them in our Fred Meyer stores in the Pacific Northwest," she also said. "Kroger has demonstrated with our actions that we recognize the growing chorus of Americans who are no longer comfortable with the status quo and who are advocating for concrete and common sense gun reforms."
After a shooting in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, Kroger said its Fred Meyer stores would stop selling firearms to buyers under 21.
VIDEO5:2605:26Walmart plans to step back from gun salesPower Lunch
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8fcda1f512be9aa836a0ed6d880a95b3 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/on-days-when-president-trump-tweets-a-lot-the-stock-market-falls-investment-bank-finds.html | On days when President Trump tweets a lot, the stock market falls, investment bank finds | On days when President Trump tweets a lot, the stock market falls, investment bank finds
VIDEO1:2601:26Trump tweets 'order' for American companies to find alternative to ChinaSquawk Alley
If President Donald Trump wants to keep his strong stock market gains, he may want to stay off Twitter.
Days when Trump tweets a lot are associated with negative stock market returns, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Tuesday in a report.
The brokerage's chief equity strategist, Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note that "since 2016, days with more than 35 tweets (90 percentile) by Trump have seen negative returns (-9bp), whereas days with less than 5 tweets (10 percentile) have seen positive returns (+5bp) — statistically significant." A basis point is 0.01 percent.
In other words, when Trump tweets more than usual, the stock market tends to fall slightly, on average.
"Trade talk, political campaigning and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy," she wrote. "And new tariffs announced in August indicate downside risk to our 2019/20 EPS growth forecasts of +2%/+7%, where indirect impacts from hits to corporate or consumer confidence could be significant."
To be sure, while an active Trump on Twitter can disrupt markets with sudden pronouncements on China trade or the Federal Reserve, he has still been good for the stock market overall. The Dow is up 42% since the 2016 presidential election and 31% since his inauguration.
It's down 1.6% since May 5, however, when the president shocked financial markets by announcing on Twitter that he would increase tariffs of 10% on $200 billion to 25%, dashing hopes that the world's two largest economies were nearing a trade resolution.
Since then, Trump's go-to report card for a strong economy has been far more volatile as his protectionist trade policies and trade war with China take an ever-growing toll on American business sentiment, capital expenditure and the stock market.
Trump doubled down on his tough trade stance on Tuesday, tweeting "We are doing very well in our negotiations with China. While I am sure they would love to be dealing with a new administration so they could continue their practice of 'ripoff USA'($600 B/year),16 months PLUS is a long time to be hemorrhaging jobs and companies on a long-shot."
"And then, think what happens to China when I win. Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER!" he added.
The Dow was down more than 350 points at 12:55 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
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c152dbe1d7ba743431dc2ee9d4a63125 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/walmart-plans-to-dramatically-step-back-from-gun-sales-after-horrific-shootings.html?fbclid=IwAR0h_mA8AoCmiLZ6zxABhSENu4xwExF2IuNJ7ZZZpwNAubiMxnz4ag35gHQ | Walmart plans to dramatically step back from ammunition sales after 'horrific' shootings | Walmart plans to dramatically step back from ammunition sales after 'horrific' shootings
VIDEO3:4303:43Former Walmart US CEO on decision to stop selling certain ammunitionClosing Bell
Walmart said Tuesday it will discontinue all sales of handgun ammunition and sales of short-barrel rifle ammunition that can be used with military-style weapons, following two "horrific" shootings at Walmart stores this summer.
It will also stop all handgun sales in Alaska, marking its complete exit from the handguns category.
The biggest retailer in the world also is asking customers at Walmart and Sam's Club to no longer openly carry firearms in stores, in states where "open carry" is allowed, unless they are authorized law enforcement officers. Open carry legislation is currently on the books in more than 26 states, Dan Bartlett, executive vice president of corporate affairs, said during a call with members of the media.
Walmart said it won't be changing its policy for customers who have permits for concealed carry. And it will be adding signage to stores in the coming weeks to communicate the updates.
"We believe the opportunity for someone to misinterpret a situation, even in open carry states, could lead to tragic results," CEO Doug McMillon said in a memo distributed to employees. "We hope that everyone will understand the circumstances that led to this new policy and will respect the concerns of their fellow shoppers and our associates."
Shares of gun and ammunition makers added to losses earlier in the day. Vista Outdoor's stock closed down 6%. Smith & Wesson parent company American Outdoor Brands' stock fell nearly 4.5%. Sturm Ruger & Company shares closed down 0.6%. Walmart shares ended the day up 0.3%.
"We've also been listening to a lot of people inside and outside our company as we think about the role we can play in helping to make the country safer," the CEO added. "It's clear to us that the status quo is unacceptable."
McMillon said he will also be sending letters to the White House and congressional leaders, asking for action on "common sense measures." He's calling on the government to "strengthen background checks and to remove weapons from those who have been determined to pose an imminent danger."
"Congress and the administration should act," he said.
The National Rifle Association of America, a gun rights advocacy group, responded to the announced changes by saying "lines at Walmart will soon be replaced by lines at other retailers who are more supportive of America's fundamental freedoms."
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Some politicians saw this as a moment to push their own agendas. Presidential contender Beto O'Rourke praised Walmart's decision but said the move wasn't enough. "We can't rely on corporations to stop gun violence," he wrote on Twitter.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., wrote on her Twitter account that this was a "good start — but it's not nearly enough. Walmart can and should do much more. And we need real gun reform, now."
Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, also took to Twitter to say: "I applaud the brave Walmart workers who called on the company to stop selling guns. This is a good step, but we still have a gun violence crisis."
VIDEO5:2605:26Walmart plans to step back from gun salesPower Lunch
The announcement from Walmart comes as the retailer has faced backlash, some from its own employees, for not pulling weapons from stores after a deadly shooting in July at a Walmart store in Mississippi and another in August at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, where 22 were killed.
Following those events, Walmart received additional threats at a handful of stores, leading to the arrests of individuals claiming to have guns.
When it reported quarterly earnings last month, Walmart estimated it made up about 2% of the market for firearms today, putting it "outside at least the top three sellers in the industry." It estimated the company had about a 20% share of the market for ammunition.
Following Tuesday's announcement, Walmart said its market share of ammunition will drop to a range of 6% to 9%, falling to the lower end of that range over time.
"We know these decisions will inconvenience some of our customers, and we hope they will understand," McMillon said. "As a company, we experienced two horrific events in one week, and we will never be the same."
Walmart said it intends for its remaining store assortment to be even more focused on the needs of hunting and sport-shooting enthusiasts. McMillon said he's a gun owner who grew up in a family raising bird dogs. And he noted the company's founder, Sam Walton, was an avid outdoorsman who hunted quail.
Walmart's remaining merchandise mix "will include long barrel deer rifles and shotguns, much of the ammunition they require, as well as hunting and sporting accessories and apparel," according to McMillon.
Bartlett also told the media that Walmart's current sporting-goods assortment has a "broad depth" of merchandise to make up for lost sales.
Last month, Walmart said it would be pulling violent video game displays out of stores following the shootings.
On Tuesday, McMillon said he will also be encouraging other retailers to act "to make the overall industry safer."
"We are exploring ways to share the technical specifications and compliance controls for our proprietary firearms sales technology platform," he said. "This system navigates the tens of millions of possible combinations of federal, state and local laws, regulations and licensing requirements that come into effect based on where the firearm is being sold and who is purchasing it. We hope that providing this information, free of charge, will help more retailers sell firearms in a responsible, compliant manner."
The move by Walmart was enough to spur grocery chain Kroger on Tuesday evening to announce it will also be asking customers to no longer openly carry firearms in stores.
"We recognize the growing chorus of Americans who are no longer comfortable with the status quo and who are advocating for concrete and common sense gun reforms," said Jessica Adelman, Kroger's group vice president of corporate affairs.
Walmart in the 1990s stopped selling handguns in the U.S. with the exception of Alaska. In 2015, it stopped selling semi-automatic weapons such as the AR-15 rifle. Following the mass shooting at a high school in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, Walmart stopped selling firearms and ammunition to people under the age of 21.
Read the full memo from Walmart's CEO about pulling back on ammunition sales, asking the government to act.
VIDEO1:4301:43Retailers explain their strategy to mitigate tariff painSquawk Box
CLARIFICATION: This story has been revised to clarify that Walmart is asking customers at Walmart and Sam's Club to no longer openly carry firearms in stores, in states where "open carry" is allowed, unless they are authorized law enforcement officers. CORRECTION: This story has also been corrected to say that Walmart stopped selling firearms and ammunition to people under the age of 21 after a high school shooting in Parkland, Florida. An earlier version of this story misstated Parkland's location.
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0afec88e5b39155da6c4f34f6033db87 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/boris-johnson-fails-in-pushing-through-snap-election-after-brexit-delay-bill-passes.html | Boris Johnson fails in pushing through snap election after Brexit delay bill passes | Boris Johnson fails in pushing through snap election after Brexit delay bill passes
Prime Minister Boris Johnson making a statement to MPs in the House of Commons, London, on the G7 Summit in Biarritz.House of Commons/PA Images via Getty Images
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed in his bid to call a snap general election on Wednesday, after lawmakers wrested control of Parliament this week and voted through a bill that aims to stop a no-deal Brexit.
The election had been proposed for October 15, but the prime minister needed a two-thirds majority in the House of Commons to pass his motion. The opposition parties of Labour, the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats all said they would not back Johnson's plan even before the vote began. The result saw 298 votes for the motion and 56 against — 136 short of what was needed.
The U.K. leader could still try other options to force an election. The government could try to bypass legislation requiring a two-thirds majority to approve a snap election. It has even been mooted that Johnson could call a vote of no confidence in his own government and then call on his MPs (Members of Parliament) to abstain from the vote although this is seen as extremely unlikely.
The new legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit was passed by a vote of 327-299 earlier Wednesday and could now essentially force the prime minister to ask the EU for another delay for the U.K.'s departure, which has a current deadline of October 31. The EU would have to agree to a delay and the bill would also have to be approved by the largely pro-EU House of Lords later this week.
VIDEO5:4205:42Boris Johnson challenges opposition to accept election on October 15Squawk Box Europe
Pro-Brexit Johnson, an integral part of the 2016 Leave campaign, has argued that keeping a no-deal departure on the negotiating table strengthened the U.K.'s position in any last-ditch attempts to get the EU to amend the Brexit deal on offer.
Johnson has kicked out 21 "rebel" MPs (Members of Parliament) from his ruling Conservative Party after they voted against his government on Tuesday. He has lost his slim majority in the House of Commons and has seen one of his lawmakers defect to an opposition party in what has been a turbulent, and potentially pivotal, week for Brexit.
In a fiery debate between Johnson and opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn earlier on Wednesday, the British prime minister challenged his rival to agree to an October 15 date for an election.
"Can I invite the leader of the opposition to confirm, when he stands up shortly, that if that surrender bill is passed, he will allow the people of this country to have their view on what he is proposing to hand over in their name with an election on October the 15th?" Johnson told the lower chamber of Parliament.
Corbyn and other opposition parties were resolute in saying they wanted to complete the blocking of a no-deal Brexit before agreeing to any election.
There has been two general elections in the U.K. since 2015, alongside the referendum in 2016 when Britain voted 52% to 48% to leave the EU.
—CNBC's Holly Ellyatt contributed to this article.
VIDEO5:1405:14Where did Brexit come from?CNBC Reports
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a8c773e2c528e212ef9d0022f6e84400 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/lyft-fails-to-protect-passengers-against-sexual-assault-lawsuit-claims.html | Lyft fails to protect passengers against sexual assault, harassment, lawsuit claims | Lyft fails to protect passengers against sexual assault, harassment, lawsuit claims
Ramin Talaie | Corbis News | Getty Images
Ride-hailing company Lyft has failed to conduct adequate background checks for its drivers, allowing for a pattern that "induces" young, unaccompanied or intoxicated female passengers to use its service and subjects them to harassment and sexual assault, according to a complaint filed Wednesday in California.
The lawsuit, brought by at least 14 unnamed plaintiffs and the latest to put a spotlight on predatory drivers, alleges that as early as 2015, Lyft became aware that drivers were sexually assaulting and raping female customers. Despite complaints made to the company, the suit says, it "continues to hire drivers without performing adequate background checks" or implement "reasonable driver monitoring procedures."
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"Unfortunately, there have been many sexual assaults much worse than the ones suffered by plaintiffs as alleged herein, where victims have been attacked and traumatized after they simply contracted with Lyft for a safe ride home," according to the lawsuit, which was filed in Superior Court in San Francisco, where Lyft has its headquarters.
The plaintiffs reside in several states, including California, Illinois, North Carolina, South Carolina and Nevada.
Lyft, the nation's second-largest ride-sharing service, did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the complaint.
VIDEO1:1401:14Lyft sued by 14 women over sexual assault allegationsPower Lunch
Ride-share companies have been under scrutiny after reports of alleged assault, theft and kidnapping. Drivers, too, have been targeted with violence.
The latest suit against Lyft says it has not met the minimum reasonable consumer safety expectations, has not adequately warned of the risks involved through its app, and negligently hired drivers without proper reference checks and anti-sexual assault training policies.
The plaintiffs are seeking unspecified damages.
"Lyft's response to this sexual predator crisis amongst Lyft drivers has been appallingly inadequate," according to the complaint.
The company has previously said it continually conducts criminal record checks of its drivers, offers optional anti-harassment training and is planning for further safety improvements. Drivers, however, cannot be forced to complete trainings since they are contractors.
The company also said last month that it would release a transparency report similar to one Uber did last summer, detailing sexual assault reports and other incidents that have been reported by users of the app. Uber last year also rolled out a button on its app in which users can connect directly with police if they feel in danger.
The lawsuit includes a Los Angeles-area woman who said she was raped by a Lyft driver in October 2018 after he told her, "I love you," and took her phone. Lyft failed to tell the woman if the driver was ever fired after she said she filed a police report.
Another plaintiff said during a ride in Charleston, South Carolina, in March that she was asked to pay with money and sexual favors, with the driver telling her "gratuity is for pocket and yummy is for me." She said she jumped out of the car before the ride ended. She added that she filed a police report, but was never told if the driver was fired.
The lawsuit also mirrors a stream of complaints made on social media by women who have said the company has failed to take their concerns seriously.
Earlier this year, Anna Gilchrist tweeted how she was scared for her safety after a Lyft driver asked if her boyfriend was home and then refused to unlock the car door during a ride. The actor and writer from Los Angeles had to pry the door open and jump out, she said. It was not immediately clear if Gilchrist's case is part of the lawsuit.
After calling Lyft about what happened, "it truly felt for all intents and purposes like I was speaking to a robot," Gillcrist told NBC News last month.
Gillcrist's initial tweet had gone viral, and the company later confirmed that the driver had been removed from the platform.
But that's not the action the company has typically taken, said attorney Meghan McCormick, whose San Francisco firm has filed 13 cases against Lyft within the past month.
"These cases are coming to us at a rate of five to 10 per week," McCormick said.
She said the latest suit should serve as further argument that Lyft has failed to install a consistent system to weed out bad drivers and protect passengers.
"I would hope that it becomes evident to Lyft and the public that this is almost an epidemic," McCormick added, "and these are only the cases we know about that are reported."
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12c85902161da940922a8dd2420293a6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/these-are-the-sp-500-sectors-that-fare-best-in-tough-september.html | Since 1989, these are the defensive sectors that fare best in the tough month of September | Since 1989, these are the defensive sectors that fare best in the tough month of September
Investors remain concerned that August's negative sentiment could carry into September. They have good reason: September tends to be among the worst months of the year. Since 1989, history shows that betting on the major U.S. equity indices in September is no better than a coin flip.
Since 1989, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has traded positive just 47% of the time in September, while the S&P 500 has not fared much better, posting a positive return 52% of the time, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho, an analytical tool used by Wall Street banks and hedge funds to identity potential trading profits based on market history.
Going back even further, September has been the worst trading month of the year on average since 1950, and the worst month for stock performance in years that precede presidential elections.
A trader reacts on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., August 5, 2019.Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Some defensive sectors have outperformed both of the broader stock indexes in September over the past three decades. The telecommunications sector bucked the negative September sentiment, returning an average gain of 0.83% and trading positively 59% of the time.
Other defensive sectors — which tend to gain as yields decline and dividend stocks become more attractive to investors — among the top performers in Septembers dating back to 1989: Health care (0.71%); energy (0.45%); consumer staples (0.18%). Utilities has the smallest positive gain of the defensive sector group (0.11%) but has traded positive the most often (66% of the time).
The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) offers a play on interest-rate sensitivity and defensive positioning, but energy has been the worst performer this year with fears of a worldwide economic slowdown accelerating. It also has fallen to its lowest weighting in the S&P 500 (roughly 4% of the index) since 1989, according to CFRA data.
"The global macroeconomic picture continues to show fragility," Katie Nixon, CIO at Northern Trust Wealth Management, wrote in a note on Tuesday. "We expect overall growth to trend lower under the weight of growing trade uncertainty."
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) offers a mix of growth and defensive but is trailing both growth sectors, like tech, and other defensive plays year-to-date, up roughly 5%.
One minor wrinkle: The best of the the defensive sector trades no longer exists.
In 2018 the telecom sector was reclassified as the Communication Services sector, with some significant changes in the top stock holdings. For example, Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix were all added to the Communication Services sector and represented a huge portion of the overall index. Facebook and Alphabet combined represent roughly 42% of the sector. The telecom sector was traditionally seen as a defensive sector and a value play, while Communications Services has stronger growth prospects with those tech heavy-hitters. The previous telecom index was 100% value stocks.
Communication Services, which is traded through the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR (XLC), is faring relatively well. Year-to-date it is up 19%, but that trails other historically defensive S&P sectors, including utilities (22%), tracked by the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU), and consumer staples (22%), tracked by the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP).
The worst-performing sectors in September back to 1990 are among the current market leaders: consumer discretionary (up 21% this year) and technology (up more than 27% this year).
Only three of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended the volatile month of August in the green, and they are among the historically strong defensive plays: real estate, utilities and consumer staples.
"We'd like to see a shift in that leadership," Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at investment advisory giant LPL Financial, told CNBC on Wednesday. "As long as you keep seeing those more defensive areas lead, we think this market can kind of continue to be range-bound and ... choppy and frustrating. But if you get some more leadership from the more cyclical areas [like financials and technology], that can be a positive. But we might not be there yet."
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235f86bd7c9c4a9b0206d99daf7162bd | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/were-all-overpaid-jerry-jones-says-after-new-ezekiel-elliott-deal.html | 'We're all overpaid,' Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says after signing Ezekiel Elliott to massive deal | 'We're all overpaid,' Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says after signing Ezekiel Elliott to massive deal
VIDEO2:2402:24Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on Ezekiel Elliott's contract extensionSquawk on the Street
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said a contract extension for star running back Ezekiel Elliott, despite its hefty price tag, is in line with other contracts around the National Football League.
The Cowboys announced Wednesday morning that they had signed Elliott for six years to a $90 million contract with $50 million guaranteed.
"Anybody, when you're talking about that kind of money, we're all overpaid. ... For what he has done, how he's worked, how he's utilized his skills, he's in the marketplace of where we are in pro sports and pro football," Jones said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
Elliott had been holding out of the team's training camp in search of a new deal, as the Cowboys' key offensive players are poised to get more expensive. Quarterback Dak Prescott and receiver Amari Cooper are also in line for new contracts soon.
"He's got a big heart. Now he's got a thick pocket book too," said Jones, who is also a major investor in energy company Comstock Resources.
The standoff between Elliott and the Cowboys got testy at times. Jones joked "Zeke who?" last month after another Cowboys running back had a solid performance in a preseason game.
VIDEO2:0302:03Retiring with one million on a $50,000 yearly salaryInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
NFL teams have drafted fewer running backs in the first round in recent years as the passing game has become more prominent and teams have grown concerned about the longevity of running backs. Jones said he thinks running backs can still have long careers.
"Running backs are short-lived, although we had what I consider to be one of the top five greatest ones in Emmitt Smith, and Emmitt ran the ball for 13 years. So you don't have to have a four- or five-year career to be a running back," Jones said.
Elliott, who played a key role on the 2014 Ohio State team that won a national title, has racked up 34 total touchdowns in his first three years as a pro.
The NFL announced in July that it would not suspend Elliott for an incident involving a security guard in Las Vegas. Elliott was suspended for six games during the 2017 season after being accused of domestic violence.
VIDEO13:4713:47Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones speaks with CNBC after Ezekiel Elliott contract extensionSquawk on the Street
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39bf25d9a885ddddf19765980a7b4267 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/05/volkswagens-fully-electric-idpoint3-sells-out-in-pre-sale.html | Volkswagen's new fully-electric car sells out in pre-sale | Volkswagen's new fully-electric car sells out in pre-sale
Volkswagen's ID.3Volkswagen
Volkswagen has sold out of its new fully-electric ID.3 model before the car has gone on sale.
The automaker confirmed in an email Thursday that it had surpassed 30,000 pre-orders for the special first edition of the car, which is limited to 30,000 units.
The ID.3, which will be showcased at the International Motor Show in Frankfurt next week, is the first model in a fleet of fully-electric vehicles being rolled out by Volkswagen.
Since May, European customers have been able to place orders for the limited launch edition of the car for a deposit of 1,000 euros ($1,106).
Volkswagen received more than 10,000 pre-orders for the ID.3 in the first 24 hours of the pre-sale opening, the automaker said in May.
However, pre-orders for the ID.3 are minimal in comparison to established competitor Tesla. The Tesla Model 3 was pre-ordered 276,000 times in just two days back in April 2016, according to the company's CEO Elon Musk.
Volkswagen said the limited edition ID.3 would be priced at just under 40,000 euros, and the unlimited series version will be around 10,000 euros cheaper.
Production of the ID.3 is scheduled to begin at the end of the year, with the first vehicles delivered in mid-2020.
"This success shows that the ID.3 is coming at precisely the right time. More and more people want to switch over to e-mobility," Jürgen Stackmann, a member of Volkswagen's board of management, said in a press release Wednesday.
Potential customers who are still interested in ordering a first edition ID.3 can sign up to a waiting list, he added, noting that there would likely be movement on the waiting list right up to the deadline when pre-orders become binding.
Those who have reserved a "production slot" for the limited edition have until April 2020 to change their mind and claim a refund on their deposit.
Most of the pre-orders for the ID.3 came from Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
The ID.3 has an electric range of up to 260 miles, offers three different battery sizes, and comes with a sporty design that Volkswagen promises will offer an "entirely new driving experience."
In an emailed statement, Christopher Burghardt, managing director for Europe at electric vehicle infrastructure firm ChargePoint, said the sale of 30,000 Volkswagen ID.3s was a "fantastic milestone for the automotive industry."
"Electric mobility isn't some sort of future concept, it's a consumer-led change to a traditional industry that's happening right now," he told CNBC. "Volkswagen is helping consumers on this journey and we're pleased to see such great news from a major car manufacturer."
The potential success of the ID.3 marks a general shift among automakers and consumers toward environmentally-friendly electric vehicles.
A report published earlier this year by management consultancy Deloitte said 21 million more electric vehicles were expected to be on the road by 2030, with carmakers from Fiat to Porsche unveiling their own electric models.
— CNBC's David Reid contributed to this report.
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97f845e0fe52794e433b9483fa449475 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/how-to-deal-with-double-digit-rate-hikes-on-long-term-care-insurance.html | Long-term care insurance costs are way up. How advisors can help clients cope | Long-term care insurance costs are way up. How advisors can help clients cope
Westend61 | Westend61 | Getty Images
Chad Chubb, a certified financial planner, walked a 66-year-old client through four premium increases on her long-term-care insurance policy.
In all, the retiree, who is single, has seen her annual premiums rise by more than 60% over the last six years. Her cost in 2018 was $2,721, up from $1,626 in 2013.
Expenses notwithstanding, she's planning on keeping her policy, which she originally purchased in 2005.
"I understand that the price she pays today for the quality of policy she has is still excellent," said Chubb, founder of WealthKeel in Philadelphia.
"But that doesn't take away from how these types of increases can and will catch older individuals off guard," he said. "Especially if they are on a fixed income."
VIDEO1:5301:53Help at homeOn the Money
Chubb's client isn't the only one getting some bad news.
Last year, Genworth Financial received 120 approvals by state regulators to increase premiums on its LTC insurance business. The weighted average rate increase was 45%.
Meanwhile, General Electric said earlier this year that it expects to raise premiums on its LTC policies by $1.7 billion over the next 10 years.
Overall, insurers hold between $160 billion to $180 billion in LTC reserves, covering 6 million to 7 million people, according to estimates from Fitch Ratings.
Advisors are having difficult conversations with clients as they face the prospect of long-term care insurance premiums jumping by double digits — and they're finding different ways to cope.
"The rate increase is frustrating, and the bottom line is 'What do you do when you get that call?" said Thomas J. Henske, CFP and partner at Lenox Advisors in New York.
VIDEO0:5800:58Why seniors 'aging in place' is affecting home salesPower Lunch
Elder care has become increasingly expensive. The annual national median cost of a private room in a nursing home was $100,375 in 2018, according to Genworth Financial.
Care at home can ring up a high tab, as well. The annual national median cost of a home health aide was $50,336 last year.
Long-term care insurance gives retirees and pre-retirees a way to prepare for those expenses.
These policies help cover the cost of care for two to five years — or for the remainder of that person's life, in the case of some older offerings.
See below for a comparison of how policy features and costs have changed over time.
A 55-year old couple currently pays an average annual premium of $3,050 for benefits that will be valued at $386,500 each once they turn 85, according to the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance.
Hinterhaus Productions | Getty Images
Insurers entering the business in the 1990s and early 2000s didn't anticipate that so many policyholders would faithfully pay their premiums and eventually file claims.
For instance, one insurer in 2008 anticipated that 10% of single policyholders would drop their coverage by age 55, according to an actuarial memorandum shared by Glenn S. Daily, a CFP and fee-only insurance consultant in New York.
"The reality is that fewer than 1% of policyholders have lapsed their coverage, and the companies have been caught off guard," he said.
VIDEO3:0503:05Where the jobs are: Home health-care aidesSquawk Box
"There are more policies than they expected, and they are on the hook for more claims," Daily said.
Low interest rates have also put pressure on insurers. Their investment returns are a part of product pricing assumptions.
About 40% of the bonds held in insurers' general accounts had a maturity of more than 20 years at purchase, according to the American Council of Life Insurers.
"The lower interest rate environment hurts overall profitability," said Allen J. Schmitz, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman in Brookfield, Wisconsin.
Getty Images
Financial advisors are preparing clients for the prospect of additional rate hikes, yet many are recommending that they maintain their coverage for now.
"Even with it being a large increase — say a 30% increase on premiums of $3,000 a year — it's not insignificant, but it's not financially devastating," said Henske.
Instead of deciding whether to keep the policy or let it go, advisors are helping clients figure out how to tweak their benefits to keep premiums more affordable.
Daily benefit: Policies sold in 2015 had an average daily benefit of $159, according to LifePlans. Advisors can recommend that clients pare back on this feature to keep their premiums down.
More from FA Playbook:Money stress traps women in unhappy marriagesI kicked my kid out after college — and you can, tooWhen an advisor has bad news to deliver
Benefit period: Insurance contracts sold in the 1990s and early 2000s could pay out for the remainder of a client's life. Reducing that period — say to 10 years or even five years — could also make premiums more manageable.
Inflation protection: Inflation riders help clients stay ahead of the rising cost of care. Clients can reduce the inflation protection to reduce the premium.
"This is more likely a solution if you're an older client because you're not so far from going on claim," said Henske.
Waiting period: Many policies have a waiting period before clients can receive benefits. For policies sold in 2015, that average was 93 days, according to LifePlans.
Adjusting this waiting period might also be another lever for clients facing a premium hike, said Daily.
Be prepared to call the insurer with your client to work out the best set of policy tweaks to maintain an affordable premium.
"We find that the insurers give you a few options in the premium increase notice, but if you call them, you can ask for variations," said Daily.
VIDEO2:1902:19How insurance premiums and deductibles workInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
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8e1d55f4b15192001c33301baca7ac58 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/mark-sanford-will-mount-republican-primary-challenge-against-trump.html | Mark Sanford will mount Republican primary challenge against Trump | Mark Sanford will mount Republican primary challenge against Trump
Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C.Bill Clark | CQ Roll Call | Getty Images
Former South Carolina Republican congressman and governor Mark Sanford announced on Sunday that he is launching a 2020 campaign against President Donald Trump.
"I think we need to have a conversation about what it means to be a Republican. I think that as a Republican party we have lost our way," he said in an interview on "Fox News Sunday."
Sanford, who was ousted from Congress after speaking out against Trump, plans to make debt, deficit and spending the focus of his campaign. He's been thinking about a presidential primary run since since mid-July.
"The epicenter of where I'm coming from is that we have lost our way on debt and deficits and spending," he said. "The president has called himself the king of debt, has a familiarity and comfort level with debt that I think is ultimately leading us in the wrong direction."
The federal deficit has increased under the Trump administration, and will widen to $1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year, according to Congressional Budget Office forecasts.
With his announcement, Sanford becomes the third Republican to challenge Trump for the presidency, along with Tea Party Republican and one-term Illinois congressman Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts governor William Weld.
Trump has received a consistently high approval rating in the high 80s among Republican voters, and is essentially guaranteed to win the Republican primary.
Sanford served as a U.S. Representative for South Carolina's 1st congressional district from 1995-2001 and 2013-2019. He was elected governor of the state in 2002 and served two terms. In 2018, Sanford lost his reelection bid to the House after Trump endorsed South Carolina state Representative Katie Arrington.
"I think we need to have a conversation on the degree to which institutions and political culture are being damaged by this president," Sanford said. "Those institutions and that political culture are really the glue that holds together our balance of power."
Sanford's announcement comes after his home state's GOP decided not to have a Republican primary.
"With no legitimate primary challenger and President Trump's record of results, the decision was made to save South Carolina taxpayers over $1.2 million and forgo an unnecessary primary," said South Carolina GOP Chairman Drew McKissick.
While he was governor in 2009, Sanford was plagued with a scandal after he said he was on the Appalachian Trail, when he was actually in Argentina having an extramarital affair. Despite that controversy, Sanford was re-elected in 2013 to the congressional seat he had held before he was elected as governor.
Trump helped doom Sanford's 2018 primary campaign. In response to Sanford's criticism of Trump, the president took to Twitter the day of the election to attack him and endorse his opponent.
"Mark Sanford has been very unhelpful to me in my campaign to MAGA. He is MIA and nothing but trouble," Trump wrote. "He is better off in Argentina."
In August, Trump wrote that he had the "Three Stooges" running against him, referring to the Republicans who have announced bids for the White House.
"One is 'Mr. Appalachian Trail' who was actually in Argentina for bad reasons. Another is a one-time BAD Congressman from Illinois who lost in his second term by a landslide, then failed in radio. The third is a man who couldn't stand up straight while receiving an award," Trump wrote. "I should be able to take them!"
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1bc2ffacec1a53ace819e8d8ee48a343 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/eni-ceo-you-have-to-give-energy-but-a-different-kind-of-energy.html?__source=fincont&par=fincont | Eni CEO: 'You have to give energy but a different kind of energy' | Eni CEO: 'You have to give energy but a different kind of energy'
VIDEO6:2106:21Eni CEO: We contributed strongly to EgyptSquawk Box Europe
The CEO of Italian oil and gas firm Eni has stressed the importance of both technology and the environment to the energy industry.
Speaking to CNBC's Hadley Gamble and Dan Murphy at the World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi Monday, Claudio Descalzi was asked whether there were still opportunities to improve the cost-out in the current environment, where Brent is trading at just under $62 a barrel.
"There are more opportunities, clearly now, than before because with the low price all the countries want to attract investors so … they need to invest," he said.
Investment was, however, not enough, with Descalzi emphasizing the need for both a strong technological offer and a focus on the environment.
"You have to give energy but a different kind of energy," he said, referencing low carbon dioxide energy, the circular economy and hybrid renewables with gas solutions. "There are a lot of opportunities because there are different doors that you can open when there is a downturn, but in any case, everybody wants to develop that because we need the energy and … energy consumption is growing, it's not going down." Global energy demand increased by 2.3% in 2018, according to figures from the International Energy Agency earlier this year.
In June 2014, Brent crude hit $115 a barrel before global oversupply saw prices fall. Today, the oil market is facing a resurgent U.S. shale oil industry that continues to add supply to the market. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties, most notably a protracted trade dispute between the U.S. and China, could upset the demand outlook.
Back on the sustainability front, Eni says it wants zero upstream emissions by the year 2030 and 1.6 gigawatts of renewable energy projects by 2022.
In November 2018, the firm, alongside Algeria's state-owned Sonatrach, inaugurated a 10-megawatt solar plant used to provide clean energy to an oil field in the country.
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0daffad730b5c34f9b0971c8d37ff293 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/eu-swiss-trading-dispute-could-repeat-for-brexit-britain-says-stock-exchange-boss.html | EU-Swiss trading dispute has Brexit implications, says Swiss stock exchange boss | EU-Swiss trading dispute has Brexit implications, says Swiss stock exchange boss
A stock exchange dispute between Switzerland and the European Union could be a sign of things to come for the U.K., according to the CEO of Switzerland's biggest exchange.
European traders were banned from trading stock in hundreds of Swiss companies at the beginning of July, in response to the EU allowing the recognized equivalence status of the Swiss stock exchange to lapse.
Post-Brexit, the U.K. will have to pursue a similar "equivalence" relationship for the City of London with the EU based on the existing alignment of the two regulatory systems.
Brussels and Bern have been in a lengthy ongoing standoff over a host of bilateral treaties governing Switzerland's political relationship with the bloc.
Jos Dijsselhof, CEO of SIX Group, which runs the SIX Swiss Stock Exchange, told CNBC Thursday that the EU's tactics during the ongoing disagreement indicated that Brussels was getting tougher with third party countries.
VIDEO3:0203:02Capital markets must be free and accessible for every investor: SIX Group CEOStreet Signs Europe
"Switzerland is technically equivalent, the EU has just used this as a political means to hold the Swiss hostage to talk about the overall framework agreement," Dijsselhof told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe".
"You do see that the stance of the EU against third party countries is hardening more and more, and we in Switzerland have seen that, and you see that also in the EU-U.K. discussion also, so it is an example of how hard it can be."
The U.K.'s former Prime Minister Theresa May aimed to build an "equivalence plus" regime with the EU, the details of which would have been negotiated had her "Withdrawal Agreement" passed through parliament.
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the 2017 Financial Services Bill would have enabled the equivalent functioning of the City to continue for two years after Brexit.
But the government shelved the Financial Services Bill in March in anticipation of a defeat in the House of Commons over a taxation amendment. It has yet to schedule the remaining stages of the bill.
Moritz Kraemer, chief economic advisor at Acreditus, told CNBC that the bill was crucial in allowing Brussels and London to implement current equivalent EU rules on financial services for the next two years.
VIDEO3:1103:11UK government doesn't understand how the EU works, economist saysStreet Signs Europe
"Now with parliament prorogued, there is going to be no time to pass this bill before October 31, so it is critical for the functioning and the continued equivalence for the City of London that either they squeeze somehow the end to parliament, to pass it before October 31, or the extension of Article 50 happens," Kraemer said.
"Otherwise, the City of London could actually end up operating in a limbo vis-a-vis the EU - that would be hugely detrimental and disruptive for both sides."
In the short term, Dijsselhof said the ban on Swiss-listed stocks being traded inside the EU has had a positive impact, since the 30% of trading in Swiss-listed shares which took place in the bloc has now been transferred into Switzerland.
The Swiss government preemptively implemented measures to protect the country's markets in the event that the EU withdrew its equivalence, meaning the transition has been relatively seamless.
However, Dijsselhof added that in the long run, the cessation of equivalence arrangements would not be good for capital markets.
"It is better if there are open, transparent markets, if you can trade shares on different platforms in different jurisdictions, and that is not the case now," he said.
"So short term - okay, it looks good in terms of volume - but in the long term I think it's not good for capital markets. It needs to be free and accessible for every investor and every issuer."
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98fcf77154f7f29f5e4df76c0e1084e6 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/hong-kong-police-fire-tear-gas-as-protesters-vandalize-the-city-after-thousands-appeal-to-trump.html | Hong Kong protesters waving US flags appeal to Trump to 'liberate' their city | Hong Kong protesters waving US flags appeal to Trump to 'liberate' their city
VIDEO1:5701:57Protesters call on President Trump to liberate Hong KongSquawk Box Asia
Hong Kong police fired tear gas to disperse protesters in the upmarket Causeway Bay shopping district on Sunday, after demonstrators had rallied at the U.S. Consulate calling for help in bringing democracy to the Chinese-ruled city.
Police moved on protesters from the Central business district who dispersed to nearby Admiralty, the bar district of Wan Chai and on to Causeway Bay in a now familiar pattern of cat-and-mouse clashes over three months of unrest.
Activists set barricades, smashed windows, started street fires and vandalized the MTR metro station in Central, the smartest district of the former British colony.
Central district, home to banks, jewelry shops and top-brand shopping arcades, was awash in graffiti, broken glass and bricks torn up from pathways.
HONG KONG, CHINA - AUGUST 31: A protesters walks in front of a burning barricade after clashing with police at an anti-government rally on August 31, 2019 in Hong Kong, China.Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Protesters set fires from cardboard boxes, building barricades with metal fencing.
"We can't leave because there are riot police," said protesters Oscar, 20, in Causeway Bay. "They fired tear gas from the station. We are heading to North Point."
North Point is east of Causeway Bay.
Thousands of protesters earlier sang the Star Spangled Banner and called on U.S. President Donald Trump to "liberate" the city. They waved the Stars and Stripes and placards demanding democracy.
"Fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong," they shouted before handing over petitions at the U.S. Consulate. "Resist Beijing, liberate Hong Kong."
U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper on Saturday urged China to exercise restraint in Hong Kong, which returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
Esper made his call in Paris as police in Hong Kong prevented protesters from blocking access to the airport but fired tear gas for a second night running in the densely populated district of Mong Kok.
Pockets of protest broke out in Kowloon over the harbor from the main island of Hong Kong on Sunday night, including in Prince Edward, close to Mong Kok.
VIDEO6:4606:46What is Hong Kong's relationship with China?CNBC Explains
Last month Trump suggested China should "humanely" settle the problem in Hong Kong before a trade deal is reached with Washington. Earlier Trump called the protests "riots" that were a matter for China to deal with.
The vandalism started in the evening. Police have responded to violence over 14 weeks with water cannon, rubber bullets and tear gas.
Several arrests were made.
Hong Kong returned to China under a "one country, two systems" formula that guarantees freedoms not enjoyed on the mainland. Many Hong Kong residents fear Beijing is eroding that autonomy.
China denies the accusation of meddling and says Hong Kong is an internal affair. It has denounced the protests, accusing the United States and Britain of fomenting unrest, and warned of the damage to the economy.
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam announced concessions this week aimed at ending the protests, including formally scrapping a hugely unpopular extradition bill, which ignited the unrest in June. Many protesters said it was too little, too late.
The bill would have allowed the extradition of people to mainland China to stand trial in courts controlled by the Communist Party. Hong Kong has an independent judiciary dating back to British rule.
But the demonstrations have long since broadened into calls for democracy.
U.S. legislation addressing China's actions in Hong Kong will be among the top priorities pushed by Senate Democrats when Congress returns to work after a recess next week, their leader, Senator Chuck Schumer, said on Thursday.
Schumer urged Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican who sets the floor agenda, to bring up a bipartisan bill that would require an annual justification of the special treatment afforded by Washington to Hong Kong, including special trade and business privileges, under the U.S. Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992.
VIDEO2:4202:42Withdrawal of the extradition bill not enough to quell protests, Bruce LuiStreet Signs Asia
The legislation, called the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, would also mandate that officials in China and Hong Kong who have undermined the city's autonomy are vulnerable to sanctions.
Protesters, in a petition handed to the U.S. Consulate, urged that it be passed in full.
Joshua Wong, one of the leaders of the pro-democracy "Umbrella" movement five years ago, was re-arrested at the airport on Sunday on return from Germany and the United States for breaching bail conditions, he said.
He had been charged with inciting and participating in an unauthorized assembly outside police headquarters on June 21 and released on bail.
"Preliminary legal advice suggested that the court had acknowledged and approved my trips to Germany and the U.S. when it granted bail on Aug. 30," he said in a statement. "Therefore, it is believed that there are some mistakes have been made on the bail certificate."
He said he thought he would be freed on Monday.
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14470e361376c07b75f7e69ccfe13731 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/apple-hardware-event-new-iphones-apple-watches-and-more.html | All the new products Apple just announced | All the new products Apple just announced
VIDEO1:4701:47Apple just unveiled the new iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro MaxNews Videos
Apple kicked off its annual fall product launch on Tuesday where it unveiled new iPhones, Apple Watches and an iPad, as well as new details about Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade.
The company debuted a trio of new smartphones, including the $699 iPhone 11, the $999 iPhone 11 Pro and the $1,099 iPhone 11 Pro Max. All three devices appear similar to their predecessors, but Apple has upgraded their respective camera systems to allow for wide-angle photos, while making improvements under the hood that result in a longer battery life and faster performance than before.
Apple also rolled out the Watch Series 5, which starts at $399 and features a new always-on display. Even so, the device is able to maintain 18-hour battery life, which is possible due to an OLED display technology that was specially created by Apple. Prior to that, the company unexpectedly announced a new seventh-generation iPad, which is priced at $329 and includes a 10.2-inch display.
In addition to new hardware, Apple also revealed launch dates and pricing for its much-anticipated Apple TV+ and Apple Arcade subscription services. Both services cost $4.99 per month, which undercuts competitors like Disney's streaming platform, Disney+, and Google's cloud gaming service, Stadia.
Here's everything Apple has announced on Tuesday:
Tim Cook announces iPhone Pro at an Apple launch event.Source: Apple
The company unveiled its latest flagship smartphones, the iPhone 11 Pro, iPhone 11 Pro Max and iPhone 11. All the devices are available for pre-order starting on Friday at 5 a.m. Pacific Time and will start shipping Sept. 20. Apple's latest software update, iOS 13, launches on Sept. 16 for the iPhone 6S and all newer models.
The iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max feature 5.8-inch and 6.5-inch OLED displays, respectively. Both devices come in green, space gray, silver and gold with a new matte finish to the back panel.
VIDEO1:1701:17Apple just unveiled the new lower-cost iPhone 11News Videos
The devices have the same form factor as their predecessors, the iPhone XS and the iPhone XS Max, but feature an all new triple-lens camera on the back. The triple-lens camera system includes a telephoto camera, wide angle camera that lets in 40% more light, as well as an ultra wide camera with a 120-degree field of view. The cameras are also capable of shooting 4K resolution video at 30 frames per second.
Apple announces new iPhone Pro lineup at a launch event.Source: Apple
Both the iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max have gotten major spec upgrades, making them faster, while using less power. The iPhone 11 Pro gets four more hours of battery life compared to the iPhone XS and the iPhone 11 Pro Max has five hours more battery life.
At $699, the iPhone 11 is $50 cheaper than its predecessor, the iPhone XR. The device features a 6.1-inch display, an hour longer battery life compared to the iPhone XR, faster Face ID and an A13 Bionic chip, making it the "fastest CPU and GPU ever in a smartphone," the company said. The iPhone 11 comes in six new colors, including purple, green, yellow, white, red and black.
Tim Cook announces the iPhone 11 at a launch event in Cupertino, Calif on Sept. 10, 2019.Source: Apple
It features a dual-camera system on the rear panel, including an all-new wide-angle lens with 2x optical zoom out. The cameras are packed with upgraded sensors, allowing for features like multiscale tone mapping for improved highlights, as well as night mode, which helps brighten photos in dark environments. Additionally, the iPhone 11 features a 12-megapixel TrueDepth camera on the front, which lets users film slow motion videos, along with wide angle selfies.
As part of the iPhone launch, Apple also rolled out a new trade-in program for several countries. The new iPhones start at $399, $599 and $699 with trade ins, or at lower prices on a monthly basis.
Apple's streaming video subscription service will roll out on Nov. 1 and starts at $4.99 per month for a family account. It'll be available in 100 countries at launch, with new shows being added each month. The company said users can get a one year subscription for free with a purchase of a new iPhone, iPad, Mac or Apple TV.
Apple debuted a trailer for "See," its new sci-fi drama starring Jason Momoa, that's set to launch on Apple TV+ along with other original titles. Other original series that are expected to launch on the service include "The Morning Show," which stars Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon and Steve Carell, in addition to "Dickinson," a drama series about Emily Dickenson that stars Hailee Steinfeld.
Apple announced Apple Arcade at its launch event.Source: YouTube
Apple Arcade, its gaming subscription service, will launch on Sept. 19 in 150 countries around the world, with 100 new games, starting at $4.99 for families. As part of the launch, the company is rolling out a new Arcade tab in the App Store to house games for the subscription gaming service. New titles will be added every month, along with personalized recommendations, game trailers and game guides. Users can also sign up for a one-month free trial at launch.
The Apple Watch Series 5 starts at $399 for a GPS version, then bumps up to $499 with 4G network connectivity. It's available for order today and lands in stores on Sept. 20. Apple is still selling the older Series 3 watch, plus cutting the price to $199.
The new device includes a new always-on display, which allows users to be able to see the time and notifications when they haven't raised their wrist. Even with the always on display, Apple says the new Watch still has 18-hours worth of battery life, thanks to a new low-temperature polysilicone and oxide display, as well as a low-power display driver.
Apple announces new Apple Watch at its launch event.Source: Apple
Apple is launching the new Watch models with three different casing materials, including aluminum, ceramic and stainless steel, as well as titanium, which is a first for the company. It also includes new features like a compass and international emergency calling.
The company has continued its focus on health and fitness in the latest Apple Watch. The device now has menstrual cycle tracking, as part of the watchOS 6 software, as well as a new research app, which is set to launch in the US later this year. Users can enroll in three studies to start, such as hearing, women's health and heart and movement.
The company took the wraps off of a new 10.2-inch iPad, replacing the 9.7-inch model. The seventh-generation device features a Retina display, an 8-megapixel camera and it has Apple's A10 Fusion chip built in, which the company said is 2x faster than the top-selling PC. The device is compatible with Apple's smart keyboard, as well as the first-generation Apple Pencil.
The new iPad is available for order today and will start shipping on Sept. 30. The device starts at $329 and education customers can buy the new iPad for $299.
Apple announces Apple Retail at a launch event on Sept. 10.Source: Apple
Apple is reopening its flagship Fifth Avenue store in New York on Sept. 20, the same date that its new iPhones will launch.
Earlier this month, the company teased the store's reopening by unveiling a new colorful glass coating. The entrance to the store was closed as of January 2017, while the store was moved to a temporary location. The rainbow colors are temporary and the cube will eventually return to its original clear design.
VIDEO1:1701:17Apple unveils new Watch with an always-on displayNews Videos
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a92f421cb7b026f7a0a8fb8e83e65ffb | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/average-fico-score-hits-all-time-high.html | Average FICO score hits all-time high | Average FICO score hits all-time high
VIDEO2:0602:06How a FICO credit score affects your lifeInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
When it comes to credit, Americans are scoring better than ever.
For the first time, the average national credit score has reached 706, according to FICO, the developer of one of the most commonly used scores by lenders.
FICO scores range from 300 to 850. A good score generally is above 700, and those over 760 are considered excellent.
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That can make all the difference in the interest rate a consumer is going to pay for credit cards, car loans and mortgages — or whether they will get a loan at all.
"At over 700, you will qualify for just about any credit at favorable terms," said Ethan Dornhelm, vice president for scores and analytics at FICO.
Average credit scores most recently bottomed at 686 during the housing crisis a decade ago, when there was a sharp increase in foreclosures. They have since steadily ticked higher, according to Dornhelm. (See FICO's chart below.)
"We've been in a relatively stable economic period," Dornhelm said. During that time, low unemployment and a strong market have helped improve the average consumer's financial health and FICO score, which Dornhelm referred to as "a lagging indicator."
In addition, more people understand their credit behaviors and scores, and they are checking their scores more often, Dornhelm said. As a result, many consumers have changed their behavior for the better.
New standards for public records, which stripped all civil judgments and tax liens from credit reports, also played a role in driving the overall average higher.
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f7bf8b2d153481b8a4cec65ccc8a30f8 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/ex-trump-national-security-advisor-michael-flynn-sentencing-scheduled.html | Former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn sentencing tentatively scheduled for Dec. 18 | Former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn sentencing tentatively scheduled for Dec. 18
Michael Flynn, former U.S. national security adviser, exits federal court in Washington, D.C., on Monday, June 24, 2019.Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A federal judge on Tuesday tentatively set Dec. 18 for the criminal sentencing of Michael Flynn, President Donald Trump's first national security advisor.
That date is exactly one year after Flynn's first sentencing, which was aborted in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., by Judge Emmet Sullivan to give Flynn additional time to complete his agreed-to cooperation with then-special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation.
During that hearing, Sullivan had blasted Flynn, saying "arguably you sold your country out," and warned him he might sent Flynn to jail if he did not agree to postpone his sentencing.
Flynn, a retired Army lieutenant general, pleaded guilty in October 2017 to lying to FBI agents about his contact with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in the weeks leading up to Trump's inauguration.
Flynn's cooperation with federal prosecutors appears to be finished.
Also at Tuesday's hearing, Flynn's defense lawyer, Sidney Powell, told Sullivan that Flynn probably will not try to withdraw his guilty plea — but also told the judge that there had been "egregious" misconduct by prosecutors.
Powell said prosecutors have suppressed so-called Brady material, which is evidence that could exculpate a criminal case defendant. Powell is aiming with such arguments to have the case against Flynn dismissed.
Prosecutors, in turn, told Sullivan that they have turned over to Flynn's lawyers all material required under the Brady standard.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers are demanding that Flynn submit to questioning and produce documents to them, as they pursue numerous investigations into Trump and Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.
Last week, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., commanded Flynn to testify before that panel on Sept. 25. Flynn had refused to comply with a subpoena issued by the Democrats in June.
Powell in a letter to the committee in late August called the subpoena "unreasonable and unethical."
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af1ceb3c7fe64ccab22334bb0afa3d02 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/gas-egypt-advocates-business-over-politics-in-east-mediterranean.html?__source=fincont&par=fincont | Egypt's petroleum minister advocates business over politics in gas-rich East Mediterranean | Egypt's petroleum minister advocates business over politics in gas-rich East Mediterranean
VIDEO4:1904:19Economics and business drives politics: Egypt petroleum ministerCapital Connection
Egypt's petroleum minister praised the "practical and pragmatic" approach to energy security among countries signed up to the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum.
"I think that energy and, specifically now, gas is very important," Tarek el Molla told CNBC's Hadley Gamble at the World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday.
The forum, which aims to establish a regional gas market and offer more competitive prices, was launched earlier this year. It consists of Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, and the Palestinian Authority, with its headquarters in Cairo.
"The people of the region would benefit out of this gas in order to have some prosperity, some welfare and wellbeing. Therefore, to be more practical and pragmatic, we sought to have this forum."
When asked whether the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum was an example of business interests coming before political differences, El Molla replied: "Exactly."
Hit by revolution and terrorist attacks from 2011 onward, Egypt ceased exporting its gas for several years, but has now made a comeback, becoming a key player in what many energy experts have called the "Eastern Mediterranean gas gold rush."
Cairo is expected to become a net gas exporter by the end of 2019 and the country has seen widespread interest in its natural gas potential — particularly after the success of Egypt's Zohr gas field, an offshore natural gas field in the Mediterranean Sea operated by Italian energy firm Eni.
Speaking about the potential of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, El Molla said: "At the end of the day, this business opportunity would be good for the people. So, I think that each country (will) play in the interests of its people."
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245a18e6e7599abfd3d4d8ee902aede8 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/nissans-ceo-exit-complicates-turnaround-efforts-as-corruption-scandal-spreads.html | Nissan's abrupt CEO exit complicates turnaround efforts as corruption scandal spreads | Nissan's abrupt CEO exit complicates turnaround efforts as corruption scandal spreads
Hiroto Saikawa, president and chief executive officer of Nissan MotorAkio Kon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The abrupt resignation Monday of Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa, after an internal investigation uncovered falsified documents that boosted his compensation, marks a dramatic shift in an ongoing scandal that broke open last November with the arrest of then-Chairman Carlos Ghosn.
Suddenly, Saikawa — who ordered the investigation into his former mentor — finds himself in the spotlight and standing accused of pocketing excess pay, too.
It also compounds the woes facing a company that appears to have done little in the past to monitor or rein in its top executives. And the lack of oversight comes to light at a time when Nissan's sales and earnings have taken a sharp tumble, forcing substantial cuts in production capacity and the elimination of thousands of jobs worldwide.
"With the scandal that already was circling the company, any further lack of credibility on the part of its leadership is completely unacceptable," said Eric Schiffer, CEO of Reputation Management Consultants. "What seemed like an individual case is now a pattern ... revealing a total lack of control by senior management and raising questions about the incompetence, or complicity, of the Nissan board. This requires a deeper, full-scale investigation."
For now, at least, "the investigation is complete," Nissan spokeswoman Azusa Momose told CNBC. But it has led to some changes.
The company revamped its corporate governance structure in June, adding new board committees, separating its oversight and executive functions and overhauling the board with more independent outside directors, Momose said in an email.
The internal probe has been underway for more than a year at Nissan, resulting in the arrests of 65-year-old Ghosn and former director Greg Kelly last November.
Prosecutors initially cited company data alleging the Brazilian-born executive had substantially underreported his income. Since then, they have ladled on a variety of additional charges while investigating other allegations. Reports published last month by The Wall Street Journal alleged Ghosn diverted millions through an ally in Oman that eventually landed in a Silicon Valley investment firm he ran with his son Anthony.
Overall, Nissan believes Ghosn and Kelly concealed more than $327 million in payments to themselves and other executives — $187 million in nondisclosed compensation and $140 million in improper expenditures, the company said in a five-page summary of its internal investigation Monday. That included about 96.5 million yen paid to Saikawa in 2013 after he complained about his pay, or roughly $900,000, based on current foreign exchange rates.
Nissan said it doesn't plan to punish or hold others who benefited from Kelly and Ghosn's alleged misconduct responsible for the overpayments. The company said there is "no reason to believe that any of the individuals were complicit in misconduct."
All along, Ghosn has proclaimed his innocence, even alleging he was set up as part of a "corporate coup." He hasn't been the only one questioning the motives and pointing a finger at Saikawa. Veteran auto analyst George Peterson, of AutoTrends Consulting, told CNBC he suspected the ouster of Ghosn was part of a plan to put some distance between Nissan and French alliance partner Renault.
The relationship has clearly soured since Ghosn's arrest, reaching a low point in May when objections by Saikawa and other senior Nissan executives helped scuttle a proposed merger between Renault and Fiat Chrysler.
Within Nissan, several current and former executives told CNBC, morale has sunk and there is an air of concern about the future.
Certainly, it hasn't helped that the automaker suffered a sharp downturn during the fiscal year that ended March 31, global sales dipping 4.3%, to 5.2 million vehicles, while earnings were off 57%, to 319 billion yen, or $2.9 billion.
The first quarter of fiscal 2020, which closed June 30, got off to an even worse start. Analysts had expected Nissan to deliver earnings of about $1.6 billion for the quarter. Instead, the numbers came in at a meager $58 million, or 6.4 billion yen, down by more than 94% from the year before.
That has forced Nissan management to order a downsizing program that will not only see it trim its model count and production capacity by 10% over the next three years, but also reduce its global workforce by 12,500.
"This is not a good time for [Nissan's financial scandals] to happen," said Stephanie Brinley, an analyst with IHS Markit. "All this turmoil, for sure, is a drag on the company. It's a distraction that makes it hard to move a lot of projects forward."
Analysts also worry the decision-making process at the top could wind up on hold. Saikawa's replacement, Chief Operating Officer Yasuhiro Yamauchi, is seen as temporary while the search for a permanent CEO gets underway.
Complicating matters, the ongoing corruption probe has, in the eyes of some observers, been used to diminish the role of the foreign executives who had come to take leading roles in the nearly 20 years since Renault bailed out a faltering Nissan in 1999.
Many found themselves under intense scrutiny. One former senior executive who had worked in Japan for a number of years warned of a possible "bloodbath" following the unexpected departure in January of Jose Munoz, one of the company's highest-ranking Westerners.
Munoz, who was Nissan's highly respected chief performance officer, told colleagues he decided to leave after "some period of serious contemplation," Automotive News reported at the time. He joined Hyundai Motor as its chief operating officer in May.
The departures continue, most recently with the August departure of Karim Habib, who had been serving as head of design for the high-line Infiniti division.
"Every time the company loses another one of these Western executives, it becomes harder and harder" to keep itself focused on the challenges it faces, said another former Nissan executive who had spent several years working in Japan.
One of the questions frequently raised by those watching Nissan is what happens next.
Junichiro Hironaka, one of Ghosn's defense lawyers, declared at a Tokyo news conference last week that "Nissan must have known about the improper payment to Saikawa when it conducted its in-house probe into Ghosn," according to reports in the Japanese press. "It turned a blind eye to Saikawa and only went after Ghosn," he added.
If anything, however, the probe wasn't as one-sided as the defense lawyer suggested, it now appears. And Saikawa is its latest target.
"Once you start looking into the books, you can't stop it," said a former Nissan executive who had served the company in Japan for a number of years.
Whether Saikawa will face the same legal problems as Ghosn is far from certain, he quickly cautioned, adding that "this will be determined by the regulators in Japan."
But there is little doubt that the latest twist to the corruption scandal will only complicate the challenges Nissan faces, including an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission disclosed by the company in January.
While Nissan officials confirmed that Saikawa was asked to resign by the board, the company declined to say whether it will ask Japanese prosecutors to now step in to the case.
VIDEO1:0901:09Carole Ghosn: My husband's arrest was a conspiracySquawk Box
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08102626060bfc16c01dd6151e723dc0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/softbank-may-need-to-write-down-its-stake-in-wework-if-the-ipo-analyst-says.html | SoftBank may need to write down its stake in WeWork if the IPO is valued below $25 billion, Bernstein says | SoftBank may need to write down its stake in WeWork if the IPO is valued below $25 billion, Bernstein says
A man enter the doors of the 'WeWork' co-operative co-working space on March 13, 2013 in Washington, DC.Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty Images
SoftBank could be forced to write down its multibillion-dollar investment in WeWork if the company fetches an IPO valuation below $25 billion, Bernstein analysts said in a note Tuesday.
WeWork, which rebranded to The We Co. in January, is still trying to gauge investor appetite for a planned offering valued at between $15 billion and $20 billion. At that level, WeWork would be worth less than half the $47 billion private valuation assigned to it after a $2 billion investment in January by SoftBank's Vision Fund.
If The We Co. garners an IPO valuation of $15 billion, SoftBank would record write-downs of $1.2 billion on its direct investments and a $1.6 billion loss for the Vision Fund, Bernstein said. This would likely lead to "large volatility" in SoftBank's business in the near term, with operating profit taking a hit of 15% if WeWork's IPO is valued at $20 billion, the firm added.
"The lower the IPO value, the greater the recorded loss and greater the dilution for SoftBank," Bernstein analyst Chris Lane said. "Combined with the current weakness in Uber and Slack (both stocks have declined approximately 30% since June 30th), we are likely to see a weak quarter for the Vision Fund."
The We Co. is still determining its plans for an IPO and its advisors met with SoftBank to discuss shelving the offering. However, sources told CNBC's David Faber that the IPO is full speed ahead, with the company's roadshow expected to kick off as soon as Monday.
Reports have said SoftBank could provide WeWork with a much-needed short-term investment, which would allow the company to stay private for a longer period of time. Lane said WeWork will probably only consider this option if it can still raise $6 billion in debt.
"Given [SoftBank's] bullish view on the long-term outlook for the company, they may see this as an opportunity to double down," Lane said. "The investor road-shows over the next week will be critical in determining the direction forward."
WeWork continues to face criticism around its complicated corporate structure, governance and ballooning losses. Lane said WeWork could require as much as $7.2 billion over the next four years to become cashflow positive and, if a recession hits, it may need as much as $9.8 billion.
Even with a potential recession on the horizon, Lane said he maintains that WeWork is a "fundamentally attractive business" with solid long-term prospects.
"In either case, an investment at a $20B valuation today has good potential for long-term upside," he added.
VIDEO4:4504:45WeWork IPO full speed ahead roadshow to kick off Monday, sources tell CNBCSquawk on the Street
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05ddb081aef4f1f17dbc81d3374af3df | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/top-technology-analyst-sees-no-opportunities-in-hardware-sector.html | Top technology analyst sees no opportunities in the hardware sector right now | Top technology analyst sees no opportunities in the hardware sector right now
Inside an Apple store in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.Miguel Candela, SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images
There are no good stocks to buy in the IT hardware sector, according to top-rated technology analyst Toni Sacconaghi.
A.B. Bernstein, Sacconaghi's firm, maintained a market perform rating on Apple, HP, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, IBM and Dell due to their underperformance in the past 12 months.
"A key question is whether investors should now look to build positions? The short answer is not yet," Sacconaghi said in a note to clients Tuesday.
In the past year, all of the listed stocks, with the exception of Dell, have lagged the broader market. Apple is down 2% in the last 12 months, while the Nasdaq is up 2%.
The S&P 500 is up nearly 4% in the past year, but Hewlett Packard Enterprises is down 10%, HP is down 24% and IBM is down 2%. These falling valuations are keeping Bernstein from buying any stocks in the embattled sector.
"While we do see plausible trades for all 5 of our stocks, we struggle to identify catalysts for some, while others aren't particularly attractive from a valuation perspective," said Sacconaghi, rated consistently the No.1 Apple analyst by Institutional Investor magazine.
The firm said the 5G cycle could be big for Apple, but visibility is low regarding the upcoming 2020 iPhone cycle. Meanwhile, the stock is expensive compared with historical levels.
"Notably, another particularly weak cycle could result in a break in the stock price akin to last year, presenting a buying opportunity," said Sacconaghi.
Bernstein said that to get positive on computer hardware company IBM, the company would need to start beating on revenues next year.
HP is inexpensive; however, "management's credibility is low, and we struggle to see any near-term catalysts," Sacconaghi added. While, Hewlett Packard Enterprises is "structurally challenged."
— With reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom.
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83c60e38c2cd040986946ddf3daab783 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/watch-trump-speaks-at-historically-black-colleges-and-universities-event-after-firing-john-bolton.html | Watch: Trump speaks at conference for Historically Black Colleges and Universities, hours after firing John Bolton | Watch: Trump speaks at conference for Historically Black Colleges and Universities, hours after firing John Bolton
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President Donald Trump on Tuesday is slated to deliver a speech to the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference.
The speech comes hours after Trump announced the firing of national security advisor John Bolton, saying he "disagreed strongly with many of his suggestions."
Roughly 1,800 people are reportedly expected to attend the conference, which draws leaders and representatives of historically black colleges and universities — often called HBCUs — from around the country. HBCUs enroll nearly 10% of African American college students, Trump said in a presidential proclamation last week.
"We commend HBCUs for all that they have done and continue to do to inspire and foster success in their students, preserve our history, and ensure that we remember, learn from, and build upon the past to create a brighter and more prosperous future for all Americans," the president said in the proclamation.
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5d03a8d004b692013fa96e437572b7c3 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/european-markets-investors-await-central-bank-meetings.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.microsoft.Office.Outlook.compose-shareextension | European stocks close higher ahead of central bank meetings | European stocks close higher ahead of central bank meetings
European stocks traded higher Wednesday as investors look ahead to key central bank meetings, while China signaled a thawing of trade tensions with the U.S.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 provisionally rose 0.77% by the session end, basic resources jumping out to 1% gains while oil and gas and autos were the only sectors trading in negative territory.
The European Central Bank (ECB) meets Thursday to decide its latest monetary policy, with markets cautiously hopeful of a fresh stimulus package to boost the ailing euro zone economy.
China on Wednesday moved to exempt 16 types of U.S. products from its additional retaliatory tariffs. These include whey and fish meal, used as animal feed, along with some lubricants, according to a statement from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. The exemption will be valid for a year from September 17.
Beijing is also expected to buy more U.S. agricultural products in the hope of sweetening Washington's stance on trade and securing a better deal, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday.
Asian shares traded mixed Wednesday afternoon, with mainland Chinese shares mostly lower while indexes in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea advanced.
The U.K.'s political turmoil returned to the headlines on Wednesday after a Scotland's highest court ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament until October 14 was unlawful. Although it is unclear what material impact the ruling will have, opposition lawmakers are already calling for parliament to be recalled.
European banks have been voicing increasing concerns about the ECB's rock-bottom interest rates ahead of the central bank's meeting on Thursday, with the ECB Governing Council expected to double down on a policy which squeezes their profits. The president of Germany's savings banks association joined Dutch bank ING on Tuesday in lambasting loose monetary policy.
Back in Washington, the departure of hawkish U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton sent oil prices southwards on Tuesday, with his exit seen as lessening the chance of a military conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
British instrumentation group Spectris saw its shares rise 7.2% during a trade, its biggest one-day gain since November 2018.
London Stock Exchange (LSE) Group shares added 6.3% after the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing made a $36.6 billion bid to combine the two companies.
At the other end of the European blue chip index, Spanish clothing company Inditex slid 3.9% after slightly missing first-half earnings expectations, while French utility company Veolia fell 2.1%.
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3d63144346b0cf866f020fb647a03126 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/iphone-11-pricing-shows-apple-can-learn-from-past-mistakes-analysts.html | iPhone 11 pricing shows Apple is learning from past mistakes, analysts say | iPhone 11 pricing shows Apple is learning from past mistakes, analysts say
Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., speaks about the new iPhone 11.David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Two Wall Street analysts told CNBC on Wednesday that Apple's batch of iPhones is a turnaround from its past mistakes.
Apple on Tuesday announced its new iPhones with improved technology, but the focus is on the attractive price point. The tech giant is selling the iPhone 11 for $699, a $50 price drop from last year's equivalent model. The lower pricing is an unusual move for the company, which has historically maintained premium pricing.
But analysts believe Apple's newfound pricing strategy could rekindle iPhone sales, which peaked in 2015. Apple stopped reporting unit sales this year.
"Apple has shown an ability to be tactical and understand the market dynamics," said Wamsi Mohan, senior equity research analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, on "Squawk Alley."
VIDEO4:2004:20Goldman's Rod Hall shares his biggest takeaways from Apple's eventSquawk Alley
A Goldman Sachs analyst echoed similar sentiments to CNBC earlier in the day.
"The pricing on the iPhone, the base iPhone, is attractive," said Rod Hall, a senior equity analyst. "I would expect unit share to shift over to that aggressively."
Hall added that there's not much room left to raise prices on the iPhone, even though it becomes "more attractive" with upgrades.
It's a move that took several analysts by surprise.
"We came out largely positive from the event... led by Lowered Pricing of iPhone 11 relative to XR, which could act as positive driver for volumes in entry level premium smartphone segment," wrote J.P. Morgan in a research note Wednesday.
However, Hall said he's not confident the drop in price will boost sales.
"You're probably not going to get a lot more unit demand coming through as a result of that lower price," he said.
Shares of Apple rose around 2.87% on Wednesday after climbing more than 1% on Tuesday.
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920fb3b62e069cebb72dd4e01e58c68b | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/7-new-tech-devices-for-that-help-seniors-live-happier-healthier-lives.html | 7 new tech devices for elder care that help seniors live happier, healthier lives | 7 new tech devices for elder care that help seniors live happier, healthier lives
Getty Images
Those ages 50 and older in the U.S. generate $7.6 trillion in economic activity, according to AARP, representing a huge financial force. That trend will grow as the number of older adults more than doubles by 2050, representing over 20% of the population.
As these boomers age, they want to do so actively, gracefully and independently. Technology is being viewed as the big disruptor that will allow them to achieve those goals. And that's presenting a huge opportunity for entrepreneurs developing these types of products.
"We're already seeing some really interesting ways technology is being used to help people as they age," said Ben Jonash, an author of The Future of Aging by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions.
The broader demographic trends will fuel large growth of these types of companies in the coming years, says Jake Nice, a principal in Nationwide Ventures. "We're in the early innings of what's going to be a very large market," he said.
The so-called active aging industry in the U.S. — which includes safety and smart-living technologies, health and remote care, and wellness and fitness technologies — is expected to triple in the next three years, to nearly $30 billion, according to a report by the Consumer Technology Association. While the report finds that health and remote care lead the way, wellness and fitness technologies for seniors is expected to reach $900 million by 2022.
We're in the early innings of what's going to be a very large market.Jake Nicea principal in Nationwide Ventures, on technology for the active aging industry
Thousands of companies are chasing seniors in this market, says John Hopper, chief investment officer at Ziegler Link-Age Funds, which has invested $100 million in 25 companies, including Ally Align, a Medicare Advantage plan provider; Include Health, a designer and manufacturer of exercise and rehab equipment specifically for disabled and aging; and Caremerge, which coordinates care among senior-care providers and families. Higher percentages of older people want to be active longer and age at home. "We view technology as a big part of the puzzle of how we provide those services that the senior demographic is demanding," he says.
Mary Furlong, a leading consultant in the longevity marketplace, agrees. "There's a spirit about building not just a business but something for humanity," she said. At the June Silicon Valley Boomer Venture Summit that she spearheaded, entrepreneurs unveiled a variety of technology products targeted at allowing seniors to live healthier, active lives.
Here's a glimpse at some start-ups generating buzz in the industry.
When Carrie Shaw was 19, her mother, then 51, was diagnosed with Alzheimer's. She realized that if she could better understand her mother's disease and perspective, it could help improve the care she provided her.
So in August 2016 she launched Embodied Labs. Two years later Shaw rolled out an immersive program that uses virtual reality headsets. When worn, these headsets offer simulations in which caregivers to take on the persona of an aging person facing a variety of situations, including macular degeneration, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease.
Shaw says that having real insight into a loved one's condition will enable caregivers to develop empathy for older adults and in turn improve the way they deliver care. And with a projected shortfall of over 1 million direct-care workers by 2020, Shaw claims the Embodied Labs platform will help train and retain employees and improve difficult conversations with their patients.
Currently sold only to businesses, Embodied Labs has 100 subscribing organizations across the senior care, home health and home-care services for older adults, including The Green House Project, Hospice of Southern Maine, Comfort Keepers, the University of California Irvine School of Medicine and California State University Channel Islands School of Nursing. Subscribers pay a one-time hardware setup fee starting at $2,500 and an annual subscription fee to the training platform based on the number of physical locations and number of employees or users.
The bottom line: The company has eight full-time employees and has raised $1.5 million of investment capital. It's also received $400,000 in nondilutive funding from groups including The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, AARP and the Department of Education. It's backed by The Ziegler Link-Age Fund as well.
This company was founded in 2016 to help older adults avoid loneliness and social isolation, a common problem among the aging that can contribute to poor health. Intuition Robotics' debut product is a robot called ElliQ, which Dor Skuler, co-founder and CEO, calls "a sidekick for happier aging."
The proactive cognitive artificial intelligence product initiates conversation to help the senior stay in touch with family or loved ones, engage in healthy behaviors — including nudges to take medication — and stay connected with the outside world.
The ElliQ initiates conversation to help seniors stay in touch with family or loved ones, engage in healthy behaviors — including nudges to take medication — and stay connected with the outside world.Intuition Robotics
The ElliQ has 117 different ways just to say "good morning," Skuler says. It may, for example, check the weather, determine it's pleasant, then ask whether the senior wants to go for a walk. Loved ones can interact with ElliQ as well, sending photos through the app that the senior can see and respond to via a video screen.
The company plans to begin shipping the product in September. It has partnered with companies such as Comfort Keepers, the largest home care provider in the U.S., though individuals will be able to purchase the product. The pre-order cost is $1,500, with the monthly fee waived for the first 12 months; after that the monthly fee is $30.
The bottom line: Intuition Robotics has 74 full-time employees and has raised $22 million in funding, as well as a $500,000 grant from The Center for Aging and Brain Health Innovation for a clinical trial with the San Francisco Campus for Jewish Living and Baycrest Health Services in Toronto.
While working for Hasbro, Ted Fischer developed a series of robotic pets that were created with the intention of fostering meaningful connections through play. It turned out that their largest customer base came from the older adult market because of the robotic pets' unique ability to engage, delight, provide companionship, calm, soothe and, most importantly, promote happiness — especially for those living independently or in care communities.
In 2015, realizing now that play has no age limit, the toy company officially launched its brand of companion pets under the name Joy For All.
The robotic cats and pups have sensors that allow them to interact with a human companion as they would with a live pet. The cat responds to touch, rolls over and utters 32 different types of purring sounds. The pup's heartbeat slows down if a hand is placed on its back.
One of the Joy For All robotic companions by Ageless InnovationAgeless Innovation
In April 2018 the Joy for All management team left Hasbro to found Ageless Innovation. A month later they acquired the Joy for All brand, assets and business. Ageless Innovation now runs the brand independently and is completely focused on the older adult market, continuing to create new robotic companions.
"Our purpose is to reimagine how we age positively by unleashing the power of play," Fischer said. He said that studies have shown the pets to be an effective, nontraditional intervention in addressing loneliness among older adults.
The product is sold both to businesses, including senior living communities, as well as individuals; the cat costs $99, while the pup is $119. Ageless Innovation launched companies in the UK and Australia earlier this year. Since 2016, when Joy For All was under the Hasbro umbrella, 150,000 pets have been sold.
The bottom line: The company has five full-time employees. It's been funded by private investors to date. The company wouldn't disclose the amount raised.
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Founded in 2017, Neuro Rehab VR provides a virtual reality experience for older patients undergoing physical therapy following a stroke, brain injury or spinal cord injury or who suffer from neurodegenerative diseases.
Just what is so special about this VR experience? Their technology is targeted: By employing machine learning, the company tailors each exercise to a patient's specific therapy needs and ability. The customized virtual therapy exercises record physiological and kinematic responses, quantifying the progress of the patient with scores and metrics over time.
By making the experience more like a game, it's intended to be more engaging. "When people put on the headset, they forget about their pain and what they can't do," so they stick with the training longer, said Veena Somareddy, the company's co-founder and chief technology officer. Patients are placed in a virtual world that covers a range of situations. For example, one scenario takes place at a grocery store, where they are tasked with picking items off the shelves.
Launched in March 2019, Neuro Rehab's VR exercises are being used in three outpatient physical therapy clinics, in Fort Worth, Texas; Willow Springs, Illinois; and Palmdale, California. Neuro Rehab VR is currently working on a home health mobile VR solution for patients to continue their VR therapy at home.
The bottom line: Neuro Rehab has five full-time employees. Funding to date has come from Somareddy's co-founder, Bruce Conti, a real estate developer who invested $700,000 in the company. Neuro Rehab, along with the University of Texas at Arlington Research Institute, also received a National Science Foundation grant for $224,893 in February to create a robot-assisted glove coupled with virtual reality to help rehabilitate stroke patients.
Toi Labs founder and CEO Vik Kashyap aims to turn the toilet into a source of valuable health information. After realizing that what is flushed away can actually point to potential health problems, Kashyap created a toilet seat called TrueLoo. With the ability to fit on any toilet, TrueLoo has sensors that can determine who the user is. It then scans the toilet bowl to determine the size, color, consistency, frequency and shape of the excreta.
The TrueLoo toilet seat has sensors that scan excreta in the toilet bowl. The information is then provided to the senior living managers so they can monitor their residents' health.TrueLoo
The information is provided to the senior living managers so they can monitor their residents' health. It's hardly appealing dinner table talk, but the information that can be revealed, such as dehydration, urinary tract infections and diseases like Clostridium difficile (also known as C. difficile and C. diff) and norovirus are big problems among seniors that can often lead to hospitalization. The idea is that catching these problems early allows them to be addressed, preventing hospitalizations and other, more serious health issues, including the spread of infectious diseases among senior living communities.
The TrueLoo is being used in Carlton Senior Living across four of their communities in northern California, with 70 installed to date. Kashyap says it will be rolled out to the general public following completion of a clinical study with the senior living community. Cost hasn't yet been determined; senior-living operators will likely pay a monthly fee.
VitalTech, a cloud-based platform that improves patient health and wellness through connected care, launched its newest product under its VitalCare brand in June 2018. Called VitalBand, the emergency voice call-out and fall-detection watch provides a more subtle way to monitor for falls, while tracking vital signs like heart and respiratory rate and oxygen saturation, as well as physical activity and sleep quality. It also provides medication reminders.
The concept was introduced to VitalTech in 2016 after board member Dan Flaherty noticed that residents of a senior-care nonprofit he financially supports were not wearing their pendants that monitor for falls.
VitalBand, part of the company's VitalCare brand, monitors falls, tracks vital signs, physical activity and sleep quality and also provides medication reminders.
"The pendants embarrassed them," said Ernie Ianace, one of the company's co-founders.
So the company set to work on a smart watch that would be easier for seniors to use, while monitoring for falls in an unobtrusive way. Just two years later, VitalBand was launched. It is water-resistant, sweat-proof and charges right on the wrist for 24/7 safety. If a fall is detected, an alert goes immediately to a certified call center ready to dispatch emergency services; if the user chooses not to have emergency response services, the fall alert is sent to up to five preconfigured family members and caregivers through text or email.
Through its VitalCare app, family members can view their loved one's streaming vitals, historical readings, manage fall alerts, edit profile information and view nutritional information.
There's a monthly subscription charge, ranging from $25 to $50 a month, including hardware, though costs may now be reimbursable through Medicare.
The bottom line: The company has 34 full-time employees. It is self-funded, with more than $13 million raised through friends and family. It recently closed an $8 million institutional round.
https://www.robotlab.com/store/zora-robot-solution-for-healthcare
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33eea0f81701d8f001686468a06d4dc7 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/ecb-draghi-expected-to-unleash-a-huge-new-stimulus-plan.html | ECB's Draghi expected to unveil a huge new stimulus plan | ECB's Draghi expected to unveil a huge new stimulus plan
Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank.Getty Images
The European Central Bank (ECB) and its outgoing President Mario Draghi are caught in a "Catch 22": The market is expecting so much stimulus on Thursday that it seems almost impossible to surprise on the upside.
The economy is showing further signs of weakness, the inflation rate is not picking up and the U.S.-China trade war has no real end in sight. So what will the ECB do?
"We still think that Mr Draghi will muster a sufficient majority in the Governing Council to push through a package that will include rate cuts as well as a restart of the asset purchase program," Dirk Schumacher, an ECB watcher with Natixis, said in a note to clients.
The meeting comes as some ECB hawks in recent weeks have been trying to downplay the chances of a huge stimulus package.
"There is, judging from (the) latest comments coming out of the Governing Council, no clear consensus within the Governing Council regarding the size and scope of potential easing measures."
VIDEO3:3203:32Halpenny: The ECB needs to be more aggressive than markets expectClosing Bell
Recent economic data is not suggesting anything particularly positive, although the leading indicators have somewhat stabilized. Purchasing Managers' Indexes for Europe show a stabilization, albeit the weakness persists in the industrial space. The question is if and when the spillover will happen to the service sector and to the labor market — especially in the larger economies like Germany and France.
So given this huge expectation the ECB is dealing with, is there room for an upside surprise?
"Potential surprises could include an expansion of the QE (quantitative easing)-eligible universe to new asset classes (senior bank debt or equities), or more radical changes to QE parameters (removing capital keys)," said Frederik Ducrozet, who watches the ECB at Pictet in Geneva.
VIDEO2:1102:11ECB will cut rates and start quantitative easing, economist predictsSquawk Box Asia
"The bar for such radical changes seems high, although we would rule out nothing in a more adverse scenario next year."
In detail the ECB is expected to do the following:
Cut its deposit rate.Re-launch monthly net asset purchases.Strengthen its forward guidance by extending the horizon to keep rates at present or lower levels beyond the first half of 2020.Introduce a tiering system for bank deposits.Raise the self-imposed issuer limit for purchases of government bonds from 33% to 40%, or even 50%.
If that is what we get, it will probably be the most comprehensive package ever by the ECB and a sign that the central bank has changed under the new Chief Economist Philip Lane.
Even though critics are getting louder and louder questioning the effectiveness of further easing, Draghi — in his last few weeks as president — is getting more and more vocal about weaker-than-expected inflation.
"As you know, inflation expectations now have been at historical lows for some time. So we have to consider that. With the admission — and that's again very important — with the admission that we don't like this," he said during the last press conference in July.
It's likely he's not much happier now.
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a8a6fd21e61e21b0faec7f5140ff7f57 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/trumps-china-tariffs-delay-doesnt-mean-trade-war-ending-experts.html | Trump's 'small concession' doesn't mean the trade war with China is ending, experts say | Trump's 'small concession' doesn't mean the trade war with China is ending, experts say
VIDEO2:4202:42We're only a tweet away from a resolution or escalation: Fitch RatingsSquawk Box Asia
The U.S. and China have appeared to dial down their trade fight by announcing some concessions on tariffs — but experts warned that it's not yet time to pop the champagne.
Markets in Asia rose on U.S. President Donald Trump's tweet that he will delay increasing tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 as "a gesture of good will." His announcement followed an earlier move by Beijing on Wednesday to exempt 16 types of American products from additional tariffs.
But, while such de-escalation in tensions between the two countries is welcomed, it's still difficult to see both sides reaching any "real resolution" anytime soon, said James McCormack, Fitch's global head of sovereign ratings.
"Things change very quickly, it's hard to know what motivation there is — to be honest — on the U.S. side. So, I wouldn't want to read too much into a small concession suggesting that we're on the road to this being resolved," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday.
"I think there's a couple more chapters yet to be written in the trade war," McCormack added.
VIDEO2:5802:58The economic situation isn't all bad news: State StreetSquawk Box Asia
China, too, may not necessarily be softening its stance on trade with its move to exempt some U.S. goods from additional tariffs, according to Iris Pang, greater China economist at Dutch bank ING.
She said in a Wednesday note that Beijing had, in fact, been considering such a move since May. So, the tariff exemption was aimed more at supporting the Chinese economy, and less of "a gesture of sincerity towards the U.S." ahead of next month's trade talks, she explained.
"There are still many uncertainties in the coming trade talks. An exemption list of just 16 items will not change China's stance. We believe that China will stand very firm in the negotiations, which will be similar to the last round of talks," Pang said.
From an investment standpoint, the U.S.-China trade war remained unpredictable, according to Daniel Gerard, head of investment and risk advisory for Asia Pacific at State Street Global Exchange.
That means it's still too early for investors to put more money into risk assets such as stocks, he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday. That's especially the case as the trade war has come at a time when developments such as the Brexit crisis also added to uncertainties worldwide, he added.
The trade conflict, which started last year, has escalated multiple times this year with both sides repeatedly increasing tariffs on each other's goods. The latest tariff increases took place earlier this month before the two countries agreed to meet in October for another round of negotiations.
Still, analysts from Citi Research wrote in a note that the latest "goodwill gestures" by the U.S. and China have "induced hope for a respite in US-China tensions even as structural differences" have persisted.
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90e77e49f0bc24c37ac70839276584c0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/13/lumber-liquidators-stock-tumbles-after-founder-backs-out-of-buyout-bid.html | Lumber Liquidators tumbles after founder shelves buyout and sells shares for a quick profit | Lumber Liquidators tumbles after founder shelves buyout and sells shares for a quick profit
Shares of flooring company Lumber Liquidators plunged Friday after founder and former CEO Thomas Sullivan decided to opt out of his bid to find a buyer for the company, a week after he announced the buyout plan. Sullivan also sold the majority of his stake in the company.
The founder had upped his ownership of Lumber by 30%, or 500,000 shares on Sept. 4 through his F9 Investments, saying he wanted to take the company private or be an investor in a sale of Lumber Liquidators to another related company. The stock jumped nearly 9% that day and 15% in the following session.
But on Friday, Sullivan sold nearly 80% of his investments, or 1.75 million shares in Lumber Liquidators, according to a regulatory filing. The filing states that because the pop in the shares, he no longer believes it is undervalued.
"It got higher than what we wanted to pay for," Sullivan told CNBC by phone. "We went public at $11 when it was profitable...A lot of big expenses, a lot of unnecessary overhead that would be expensive to redo, so not going to pay it more than when it was profitable."
Sullivan bought those shares at an average price of $7.88 per share and he sold them with an average price of $11.68 a piece, according to filings.
Shares of Lumber Liquidators plunged more than 13% to $9.77 on Friday.
"The Company is aware of Mr. Sullivan's amended 13D filing and does not comment on the intentions or trading activities of shareholders," Lumber Liquidators told CNBC. "Lumber Liquidators encourages an active dialogue with all our shareholders, and we welcome their views and input. The Board is always open to opportunities to increase shareholder value."
The company has been volatile over the years. In 2015, the company took a huge hit when former hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson exposed Lumber's health and safety violations at its factories in China, which was featured on 60 Minutes.
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6209c09ef5e1e31f98b8169a55f114d7 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/13/netflix-is-missing-out-on-this-market-comeback-but-piper-jaffray-says-buy-the-dip.html | Netflix is missing out on this market comeback, but Piper Jaffray says buy the dip | Netflix is missing out on this market comeback, but Piper Jaffray says buy the dip
Chesnot | Getty Images
Netflix is missing out on the broader market's rally, but don't give up on the stock, says Piper Jaffray.
The firm reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and its $440 price target.
"Despite an onslaught of new streaming services currently casting a cloud of concern over NFLX shares, we expect the company will continue to capture a significant portion of traditional content dollars, as those dollars migrate to streaming," said Piper Jaffray's senior research analyst Michael Olson in a note to clients on Friday.
Shares of Netflix are lagging the broader market right now, down 2% this month while the S&P 500 is up nearly 3% in September. Investors are cautious on the company with other new streaming launches from Apple, Disney and HBO on the horizon. Netflix's stock took a dive on Tuesday after Apple announced its original TV service will cost $4.99 a month and launch Nov. 1. Netflix raised the price of its subscription plan to $8.99 in January.
Piper Jaffray is optimistic third-quarter subscriber numbers for Netflix will come back from disappointing second quarter numbers, which shocked investors and caused the stock to drop 20% since their release. The firm's analysis points to third-quarter subscriber additions that are in-line with estimates for domestic additions and potentially above expectations for international additions.
Olson estimates third-quarter domestic subscription growth will be around 6.4% year-over-year and international growth in a range of 33% to 35%.
Netflix's content slate in the second half of 2019 is much stronger than in the second-quarter, Olson added. A new season of The Crown and several original films such as El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie and The Irishman from Martin Scorsese are expected to boost subscribers.
"There should be a positive impact from an improving slate and we are, therefore, optimistic about the company's opportunity to grow subscriber additions y/y on a FY basis," said Olson.
Shares of Netflix were 1.83% higher on Friday.
— with reporting from CNBC's Michael Bloom.
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09ff03d3281ab5060c21feecd456b0c4 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/13/wework-considering-curbing-neumanns-voting-power-to-save-ipo-source.html | WeWork curbs CEO's voting power in a bid to boost its IPO prospects | WeWork curbs CEO's voting power in a bid to boost its IPO prospects
WeWork CEO Adam Neumann with wife and founding partner Rebekah Neumann.
WeWork owner The We Company said on Friday it has curbed the voting power of founder and CEO Adam Neumann, part of changes to its corporate governance aimed at reviving demand for its planned initial public offering.
The office space sharing start-up said it was making the changes "in response to market feedback" as the company considers seeking a valuation in the IPO for less than half what it was worth just nine months ago in the face of lukewarm demand.
Loss-making We Company said Neumann's superior voting shares will decrease to 10 votes per share from 20, it said in a regulatory filing, though he will still retain majority control of the company.
Neumann will also give the company any profits he receives from real estate deals he has entered into with We Company. He will also limit his ability to sell shares in the second and third years after the IPO to no more than 10% of his stock.
No member of Neumann's family will be on the company's board and any successor will be selected by the board, scraping a plan for his wife and co-founder Rebekah Neumann, who is chief brand and impact officer, to help pick the successor.
It disclosed its will list shares on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. It plans to complete the IPO as early as this month, Reuters has reported.
This is the second effort to repair damage done to its image among inventors, having earlier this month added a new member, Frances Frei, to its all-male board and said Neumann would return a $5.9 million payment for use of the trademarked word "We."
It remains to be seen whether the changes will be enough to allay broader investor worries about the sustainability of We Company's business model, which relies on a mix of long-term liabilities and short-term revenue. Investors have questions how successfully such a model would weather an economic downturn.
The head of an investment firm which was an early investor in WeWork said they were unsure if the latest moves would have a significant impact on the valuation the company will fetch in the IPO. The person requested anonymity as they are not allowed to speak publicly about portfolio companies.
We Company may seek a valuation of as low as $15 billion in its IPO, down from the $47 billion value it commanded in its last private fundraising round in January, and plans to begin its investor roadshow as early as Monday, Reuters reported this week.
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506e487f3a0ccd8536f328031248f473 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/15/tom-lee-bitcoin-and-sp-500-are-heading-to-new-all-time-highs.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar | VIDEO5:0205:02Bitcoin heading higher, says Fundstrat's Tom LeeFast Money
Talk about a bitcoin bull case.
The digital currency is headed to new record highs, says Tom Lee, co-founder, managing director and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors — but there's a catch some cryptocurrency investors may not be expecting.
"Bitcoin has kind of stalled recently because the macro outlook has stalled. I think, in a world without trend, bitcoin doesn't go up," Lee said Thursday on CNBC's "Fast Money." "The next big catalyst, I think, is a decisive breakout in the equity markets, because I think once equities break to an all-time high, bitcoin becomes a risk-on asset."
In other words, according to Lee, as stocks go, so goes bitcoin — at least for now.
"If markets make a new all-time high and we see central banks still supportive, it's kind of good for liquidity, so there's ... liquidity going into bitcoin," Lee said. "More importantly, if there's an interest in acquiring some volatility, that's where you're going to see people buying bitcoin."
With Lee expecting the S&P 500 to climb to 3,125 or higher by year-end, that could mean a major rally is in the cards for the increasingly volatile digital currency. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $20,089 in late 2017, according to CoinBase.
"[The S&P's] all-time high is around 3,025," which it reached earlier this year, Lee said. "I think we're going to surpass that soon and it would be bullish for bitcoin."
Lee's theory is built in part on the historical ties between bitcoin and the equity markets. In the 10 years since bitcoin's launch, the best years for the S&P have coincided with best years for bitcoin, he said.
"Bitcoin does best when the S&P's up more than 15%," Lee said Thursday. "Bitcoin may be ambidextrous [in] that it works well in a risk-on world, but as you start to get nervous, then you treat it like digital gold."
The last several months have brought about "neither environment," leaving bitcoin's fate in the hands of uncertain investors, the strategist said.
"It was a market that looked like it was on the precipice, it looked like it could fall, but it never did, and I think [being] stuck in that trend was bad for bitcoin," he said.
But before all this occurs, BKCM founder and CEO Brian Kelly expects investors to get a once-in-a-generation chance to buy the popular cryptocurrency, he said in the same "Fast Money" segment.
"I think you're going to have a massive buying opportunity here," Kelly said. "We may have already seen it in the [$]9000s, ... but there is too much money coming into this market. You're going to have an opportunity to have a generational buy in bitcoin sometime, I would say, in the next six months."
Bitcoin fell by nearly 2% on Friday to just above $10,210, according to CoinBase.
Disclaimer
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8013fef3514a01e7cab7977cbfc5c29f | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/16/ceo-says-paxos-merges-security-of-a-bank-and-silicon-valley-innovation.html | VIDEO2:3502:35Paxos CEO tells Jim Cramer what his company offersMad Money with Jim Cramer
The digital age is reaching all corners of business, and one New York start-up is offering a secured way to gain exposure to gold by tethering the yellow metal to cryptocurrency.
Paxos, a privately held financial institution that provides a way to move between physical and digital assets, has launched a tokenized version of the precious metal called PAX Gold. CEO Charles Cascarilla, who co-founded the firm in 2012, told CNBC on Monday that Paxos is a safe platform for both individual and institutional investors to buy the commodity.
"We're really a technology firm at heart, and so we're trying to give you the confidence of a bank, but the innovation of Silicon Valley," he said in a sitdown with Jim Cramer on "Mad Money." "And that's just different from, I think, most institutions that are in the banking world today."
The price of gold has gained nearly 15% this year, climbing above $1,505 on Monday, and gold stocks such as Barrick Gold and Agnico Eagle Mines have run more than 26% and 38%, respectively, this year.
But Paxos' digital asset, backed by physical gold on the blockchain, is a modern twist to invest in the space. Each token is equivalent to one troy ounce that is liquid and can be converted into greenback or unallocated gold in a Loco London unallocated gold account, according to the company.
Cascarilla recommends users buy a tenth of an ounce, or $150 minimum at current prices.
"I think what's really unique about Paxos is that we're a trust company" with an independent board and auditor and being regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services, Cascarilla said. "So we're regulated just like a bank, and the reason that's important is you're not just trusting us because we say you should. You're trusting us because we're regulated, we have oversight."
VIDEO6:2606:26CEO says Paxos merges 'confidence of a bank' with 'innovation of Silicon Valley'Mad Money with Jim Cramer
Questions for Cramer? Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBCWant to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up! Mad Money Twitter - Jim Cramer Twitter - Facebook - InstagramQuestions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website? madcap@cnbc.com
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92f8c7c63db9d1076aadcb7624899cd9 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/saudi-arabia-has-to-explain-how-its-oil-assets-in-abqaiq-were-attacked-says-ex-us-diplomat.html | Saudi Arabia has 'a great deal of explaining to do' on how its oil assets were attacked, says former US diplomat | Saudi Arabia has 'a great deal of explaining to do' on how its oil assets were attacked, says former US diplomat
VIDEO3:2403:24'No doubt' Iran played some role in attacks on Saudi: Ex-US ambassadorSquawk Box Asia
Saudi Arabia has "a great deal of explaining to do" on how it could not defend its "most critical" oil facility from drone attacks at the weekend, said Gary Grappo, former U.S. ambassador to Oman.
The Kingdom spent an estimated $67.6 billion on arms in 2018, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Saudi Arabia was just behind the U.S. and China in terms of defense spending, Grappo told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday.
"I think the Saudi leadership has a great deal of explaining to do that a country that ranks third in terms of total defense spending ... was not able to defend its most critical, and I can't underscore that enough, its most critical oil facility from these kinds of attacks," said Grappo, who was previously in senior positions at the U.S. embassies in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and Baghdad, Iraq.
Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and damage to its oil facilities ignited fears of supply disruption around the world.
It's a bit alarming that these folks got through ... they were exquisitely precise, they knew exactly what to hit, they hit it perfectly.Bob McNallyRapidan Energy Group
Oil prices jumped after the Saturday attack on Saudi Aramco's oil processing facility at Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil field. That knocked out 5.7 million barrels of daily crude oil production — which is more than half of Saudi Arabia's global daily exports and over 5% of the world's daily crude production.
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have blamed Iran for the attacks.
VIDEO1:0201:02Satellite photos show the attack damage to Saudi Aramco oil facilitiesNews Videos
"We're talking about drones. Now, drones are not so easily detectable but, nevertheless, they had to be able to see that this was a strong possibility given the previous attacks they've experienced in previous oil facility, airports and elsewhere," said the former diplomat who is now a distinguished fellow at the University of Denver.
Saturday's attack was not the first time that the Abqaiq oil processing plant was targeted. In 2006, security guards blocked an attempted attack by al-Qaida militants on the facility.
Bob McNally, founder and president of consultancy Rapidan Energy Group, said he was "disappointed, but not surprised" by the attack. He said he had expected Riyadh to "raise defenses," especially after al-Qaida's previous attempt to attack its facilities.
"It's a bit alarming that these folks got through. We looked at those photos that were released by the Trump administration — they were exquisitely precise, they knew exactly what to hit, they hit it perfectly," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday.
"For all we know, they could come back. So, no grounds for complacency, in my view."
Correction: This story was revised to correct that McNally's quotes were from an interview Tuesday on "Squawk Box Asia." He also was interviewed Monday on "Squawk on the Street."
WATCH: Attacks on Saudi a rude awakening for oil market
VIDEO2:0902:09Attacks on Saudi were a 'rude awakening' for the oil marketSquawk Box Asia
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59a3a66602d677426fe2cdf14a0f5152 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-oil-production-in-focus.html?__source=fincont&par=fincont | Oil falls 2% after Trump orders increased sanctions on Iran instead of military action | Oil falls 2% after Trump orders increased sanctions on Iran instead of military action
Foreign "guest workers" drill at the Saudi Aramco oil field complex facilities on March 2003 in Shaybah, Saudi Arabia.Reza | Getty Images
Oil prices retreated on Wednesday, extending the decline in the previous session after President Donald Trump said he ordered the Treasury Department to "substantially increase" sanctions on Iran.
Trump's announcement follows attacks on the world's largest crude-processing plant and oil field in Saudi Arabia that had forced the kingdom to cut its production in half. Oil prices jumped the most in history on Monday due to the disruption.
tweet
Brent crude oil futures were down 36 cents, or 0.56%, at $64.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 2.1% or $1.23 lower at $58.11 a barrel.
The latest comment from the president marks a softening in his rhetoric as he had warned on Sunday that the U.S. was "locked and loaded" to respond to the Saudi incident.
Oil tumbled as much as 7% on Tuesday after the Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said oil production capabilities were fully restored and that oil output will be back to pre-attack levels by the end of September.
Fifty percent of the oil production loss from the attack has been restored in the past two days, bin Salman said, adding that production capacity would reach 10 million barrels of crude per day (bpd) by the end of this month and 12 million bpd by the end of November.
Trump said Monday he's in no rush to respond to the coordinated attack. When asked if Iran was behind it, Trump said "It's certainly looking that way at this point."
Drone and missile debris found by investigators at the Saudi Aramco attack site is proof of Iran's involvement in the drone attack, a Saudi defense ministry representative told media on Wednesday. He said the drones used in the attacks were Iranian Delta-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
Iran maintains that it was not behind the attacks. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani said the attacks on Aramco were a "reciprocal response" to the aggression against Yemen.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has blamed Iran for the drone strikes, saying in a tweet Saturday that Iran has launched an "unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply."
Oil pared some of its loses after an unexpected rise in crude inventories.
U.S. crude inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels.
— CNBC's Maggie Fitzgerald contributed reporting.
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89af905a206c9372b8c825d486d2b483 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-pledges-to-restore-production-after-drone-attacks.html?__source=fincont&par=fincont | Saudi Arabia's pledge to quickly restore crude production has triggered a repricing of oil | Saudi Arabia's pledge to quickly restore crude production has triggered a repricing of oil
VIDEO3:5403:54Saudi oil minister says all capacity will be restored by end of SeptemberCapital Connection
Saudi Arabia's pledge to fully restore crude production by the end of the month has prompted a flurry of oil market forecasters to reconsider their price projections.
"The oil market is facing challenging times," Carsten Fritsch, energy analyst at Commerzbank, said in a research note published Wednesday.
"Recent attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia have painfully demonstrated the risks to oil supply, which is why short-term price spikes are possible at any time."
But, citing weakening market fundamentals, Fritsch explained that the German bank does not consider the recent price surge to be sustainable. Instead, Commerzbank expects the price of Brent oil to fall to $60 per barrel next year.
Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a press conference Tuesday that the kingdom would soon have its oil supply back online after a series of drone attacks knocked out 5.7 million barrels of daily crude production.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, traded at around $63.87 on Wednesday, down around 1%. The contract had previously soared as much as 19.5% at the start of the week, climbing to $71.95 a barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $58.39 on Wednesday, more than 1.6% lower. The losses come less than 48 hours after WTI futures posted their biggest one-day climb since 2008.
Saudi Arabia's announcement on Tuesday "will temper bullish sentiment and probably sets a short-term price ceiling at $70 for Brent crude," analysts at risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a research note published Tuesday.
"However, geopolitical risks remain high and a level of premium will probably be built in to integrate risks associated with U.S.-Iran and Saudi-Iran tensions."
The Saudis have grown increasingly confident that Iran directly launched a complex missile and drone attack from its southern territory, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the investigation.
Iran has denied involvement in the attacks.
Smoke billows from an Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq after drone attacks sparked fires at two Saudi Aramco oil facilities.AFP | Getty Images
President Donald Trump said via Twitter on Wednesday that he had ordered Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to "substantially increase sanctions" already imposed on Iran.
He did not give additional details on the move.
"As much as the Saudis have downplayed the extent of the latest outages, we should not be lulled into a false sense of security," Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note on Wednesday.
"Tensions in the region are still running high and the specter of a further escalation is hanging over the oil market."
Goldman Sachs reiterated its view on Wednesday that the global oil market has enough resources available to balance a larger outage, without requiring a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release.
"This reinforces our view that prices are likely to remain below $75 (a barrel) Brent prices even if the outage proves much more persistent than current guidance," the U.S. investment bank said.
The SPR is an emergency stockpile of petroleum oil designed to mitigate a total depletion of crude during unstable times. It is managed by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Saudi Arabia's new Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman takes a tour at the exhibition during the 24th World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates September 9, 2019.REUTERS | Satish Kumar | File Photo
Trump reportedly said Tuesday that he did not think it would be necessary to release oil from the SPR because oil prices have not jumped very much.
A tumultuous few days for the energy market prompted UBS on Wednesday to raise its three-month trading range by $6 to between $59 and $71 for Brent and $54 to $67 for WTI.
"Considering limited spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia and risks of renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, a risk premium is likely to stay on oil prices in the foreseeable future," Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, said in a research note published Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said Wednesday that it had upwardly revised its forecast for average oil prices for 2020, reflecting a higher geopolitical risk premium.
The EIU now expects Brent crude futures to average $63 a barrel next year, up from a previous estimate of $62 a barrel.
"This assumes no further escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, but the risk of miscalculation remains high," Agathe Demarais, the EIU's global forecasting director, said via Twitter.
— CNBC's Yun Li contributed to this report.
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3c91448866d3e842d19b27073864463c | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/oil-drone-attack-damage-revealed-at-saudi-aramco-facility.html?&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=whats_going_on&utm_term=2019-10-19 | Saudi Aramco reveals attack damage at oil production plants | Saudi Aramco reveals attack damage at oil production plants
VIDEO1:4601:46Saudi Aramco reveals attack damage at oil production plantsCapital Connection
Repair work is underway at two Saudi Aramco oil facilities after predawn attacks on Saturday forced the kingdom to shut down half its total oil production.
The strikes targeted Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, sparking concern about global oil supply stability, which sent crude prices soaring by double digits.
Abqaiq, located in the kingdom's oil-rich Eastern province, is the world's largest oil processing facility and crude oil stabilization plant with a processing capacity of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd). Khurais, which lies about 110 miles southwest of Abqaiq, has capacity to pump around 1.5 million bpd.
Damaged installation at Saudi Arabia's Khurais oil processing plant, pictured on September 20, 2019.Umair Sultan
In a tour run by the state-owned oil company, reporters were shown the damage at Aramco's facilities and the rebuilding work taking place. A company executive conducting the tour told CNBC's Hadley Gamble that 200 people were inside the Khurais facility when the sudden attack targeted four separate locations at the production plants.
The officials added that by the time the staff at the Khurais facility had attempted to put the fires out from the first wave of attacks, more strikes had targeted the plant.
The tour of the Khurais site revealed melted pipes and burnt areas which are now busy being repaired. Officials said 30% of the facility was back up and running within 24 hours and full production at Khurais will be reached before the end of September.
Damaged installation at Saudi Arabia's Khurais oil processing plant, pictured on September 20, 2019.Umair Sultan
Debris at Saudi Arabia's Khurais oil processing plant following drone attacks, pictured on September 20, 2019.Umair Sultan
They added that the full country capacity of around 12 million barrels per day will be available by November, although in recent months the kingdom has been capping daily production at 10 million barrels.
The 70-year-old Abqaiq facility, which Aramco describes as state of the art, was attacked in 18 different locations, according to Saudi officials. Workers at the plant managed to get 2 million bpd of oil production back online within 48 hours and Aramco executives told CNBC on Friday that they are determined to reach normal output by the end of September.
In order to complete the repair work, Saudi Aramco has indicated it needs to ship equipment from both the United States and Europe.
VIDEO0:3900:39Repair work underway at Saudi Aramco oil facilityCNBC TV
Earlier this week, Saudi Col. Turki al-Maliki, spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen, said during a news briefing that 25 drones and missiles were used in the attack. Saudi authorities and the United States have said the drone and missile debris recovered by investigators, as well as the direction of fire, suggest Iranian culpability. Tehran has denied involvement.
Oil prices have seesawed as the threat of a military response appears to have lessened, but both Brent and West Texas Intermediate appear to be on course for gains of about 7% this week.
Damaged installations at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil plant, pictured on September 20, 2019.Umair Sultan
Damaged installation at Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil plant, pictured on September 20, 2019.Umair Sultan
— Reuters and CNBC's Natasha Turak contributed to this report.
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fd79fd2f090f75ed3529d6cf67a885ab | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/20/the-pentagon-will-deploy-us-forces-to-the-middle-east-on-the-heels-of-the-iranian-attack-on-saudi-arabian-oil-facilities.html | Pentagon will deploy US forces to the Middle East after attack on Saudi Arabia oil facilities | Pentagon will deploy US forces to the Middle East after attack on Saudi Arabia oil facilities
U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. De'Angelo Sidney, an aerial port specialist with the 36th Contingency Response Group, marshals a C-130J Super Hercules at the Saipan International Airport, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Nov. 28, 2018.Tech. Sgt. Joshua J. Garcia | US Air Force
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon will deploy U.S. forces to the Middle East on the heels of strikes on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announced Friday.
"The president has approved the deployment of U.S. forces which will be defensive in nature and primarily focused on air and missile defense," Esper said, adding that Saudi Arabia requested the support. "We will also work to accelerate the delivery of military equipment to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to enhance their ability to defend themselves," he added.
President Trump has said that it "certainly looks" as if Iran appears to be responsible for the attack, but that he wants to avoid war.
This has been a dramatic escalation of what we have seen in the past. This was a number of airborne projectiles, was very sophisticated, coordinated and it had a dramatic impact on the global markets.Jonathan HoffmanPentagon spokesman
Esper reiterated that the United States does not seek a conflict with Iran and called on Tehran to return to diplomatic channels. He also said that there could be additional U.S. deployments if the situation were to escalate.
On Thursday, the Pentagon called the recent strikes on the Saudi Arabian oil facilities as "sophisticated" and represented a "dramatic escalation" in tensions within the region.
"This has been a dramatic escalation of what we have seen in the past. This was a number of airborne projectiles, was very sophisticated, coordinated and it had a dramatic impact on the global markets," Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said, adding that the strike is an international problem.
The strikes on the world's largest crude-processing plant and oil field forced the kingdom to shut down half of its production operations. What's more, the event triggered the largest spike in crude prices in decades and renewed concerns of a budding conflict in the Middle East. All the while, Iran maintains that it was not behind the attacks.
On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia's defense ministry said that drone and missile debris recovered by investigators shows Iranian culpability. Saudi coalition spokesman Col. Turki al-Maliki said during a press briefing in Riyadh that all military components retrieved from the oil facilities "point to Iran."
The latest confrontation follows a string of attacks in the Persian Gulf in recent months.
In June, U.S. officials said an Iranian surface-to-air missile shot down an American military surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said the aircraft was over its territory. Hours later, Trump said Iran made a "very big mistake" by shooting down the spy drone. The downing came a week after the U.S. blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region and after four tankers were attacked in May.
The U.S. in June slapped new sanctions on Iranian military leaders blamed for shooting down the drone. The measures also aimed to block financial resources for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Though Trump has threatened to bring military action or even "fire and fury" against American adversaries, he has also said he does not want to throw the U.S. into another prolonged military conflict. In a tweet Tuesday, Trump called his measured response to the strikes "a sign of strength that some people just don't understand!"
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f9871319c29c0ba5730284f0cd319a8e | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/21/saudi-aramco-attacks-could-predict-cyber-warfare-from-iran.html?wpisrc=nl_cybersecurity202&wpmm=1%C2%A0 | The Saudi oil attacks could be a precursor to widespread cyberwarfare — with collateral damage for companies in the region | The Saudi oil attacks could be a precursor to widespread cyberwarfare — with collateral damage for companies in the region
udi defence ministry spokesman Colonel Turki Al-Malik displays on a screen drones which Saudi government says attacked an Aramco oil facility, during a news conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia September 18, 2019.Hamad I Mohammed | Reuters
A recent attack against Saudi Aramco damaged the world's largest oil producer and delayed oil production, roiling oil and gas markets. The Saudi government and U.S. intelligence officials have claimed the incident is the work of Iran, while Iran blamed Yemeni rebels.
This is a real-world continuation of a long-simmering cyberwar between the two countries, which has spilled over into other global powers.
In recent years, Iran has deployed destructive computer viruses against Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom and oil and gas industry have been slow to shore up their defenses, raising red flags about the possibility of longer term fal-out in the region, experts said. Investors should expect long-term cyber espionage and flare-ups of malicious activity, including the potential for destructive attacks that hurt companies in the region beyond Aramco.
Saudi Aramco declined to comment for this article.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have been cyberwarfare proving grounds for more than a decade.
Activity across the Gulf has concentrated on oil and gas companies, which gather terabytes of data related to drilling and oilfields. The oil and gas sector has long relied on potentially vulnerable "internet of things" devices to measure information about the availability of oil, and to power the complex machinery that finds, extracts and refines it.
Iran's nuclear facilities were attacked by a virus called Stuxnet in the mid-2000s. This malicious software was sophisticated, built in a "modular" format. Attackers could use it not only to extract intelligence but also to control and destroy sensitive machinery.
Stuxnet has widely attributed to a combined effort by Israel and the United States.
Iran reacted to Stuxnet in a surprising way: they didn't talk about it much at all. But they did take action, said Lieutenant Colonel Scott Applegate, an expert in the history of cybersecurity and a cyber professor at Georgetown University.
VIDEO4:3304:33Saudi Aramco details how it handled rapid response to attacksSquawk on the Street
One theory is that Iran took some of what they learned from Stuxnet and created a new weapon, which they then deployed against Saudi Aramco in 2012.
That virus, known as "Shamoon," was modular and multi-faceted like Stuxnet, but had only one purpose: To find and destroy data. It did this quite successfully, said Brian Hussey, vice president of cyber threat detection and response for cybersecurity company Trustwave.
"You saw that at Saudi Aramco, 30,000 boxes got bricked," said Hussey, describing how 30,000 of the oil agency's computers were erased over the course of the day, destroying swaths of data.
The attack laid out Iran's cyber capabilities for the world to see, but had little financial impact on Saudi Aramco, costing only a small fraction of the oil giant's daily revenue, Applegate said.
"While they made a big impact on the world stage, they did not bleed over into the wider system. Historically, cyberattacks have not played a huge role in the oil and gas industry, other than from a hyperbolic rhetoric point of view," Applegate said.
But what happened after Shamoon is more alarming.
Following the Shamoon attack, Aramco took several years fortify its defenses. Saudi Arabian officials were interested in installing American-style cybersecurity best practices throughout the company.
But one cybersecurity engineer who participated in the response to Shamoon said he observed a corporate culture throughout Saudi Aramco that was resistant to change. It was difficult to "spark urgency" in workers and leaders, he said, because their jobs "simply weren't on the line, like they are everywhere else when there's a breach."
Workers, many of whom were guaranteed lucrative jobs because of their family ties or tenure, expressed indifference at some security basics, he said. The result was a "slow change problem," that made it difficult to implement the types of controls that are often required at American companies, especially following a security incident, he said.
Two other cybersecurity experts who worked in Saudi Arabia at the time concurred with these observations. All requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with press.
The engineer said he was not surprised when he saw that Saudia Arabia had suffered another series of attacks by the same Shamoon virus in 2017, five years after the initial attacks.
Also in 2017, reports surfaced that Saudi Aramco's industrial safety systems may have been "tested" by hackers looking to see how they could turn those systems off. This dark turn showed how cyber conflict could have a significant effect on public safety and the wider oil and gas industry.
"There is certainly potential if they can get into the SCADA systems that there is a potential to disrupt oil and gas production, and that would be a much more serious incident," Applegate said. He also cauthioned that Saudi Arabia's slowness to respond tot to very similar attacks, years apart, may have been a bad sign in terms of preparedentwo
There hasn't been a discernible increase in cyberattack activity in the region yet, said Nicholas Hayden, global head of threat intelligence for cyber intelligence company Anomali.
But while "nothing is standing out right now in the region, there's a good chance that there are nation-state actors" readying for potential cyber conflict, said Hayden, who has served as a cybersecurity operator in the electrical sector.
"We're certainly paying more attention than we normally would to that area. When stuff like this happens, we tend to put our ear a little bit closer to the ground."
Iran has been well-known for increasing cyberattacks when it comes into conflict with countries, Hayden said, and that can also mean collateral damage in other companies -- not just Saudi-owned -- doing business in the region.
Hayden said he was pessimistic about readiness in the oil and gas industry. "They're probably not very ready. The biggest attack that they may have seen is a ransomware attack," he said. That means oil and gas firms and their third parties may have little hands-on experience fighting a fiercer attack from a foreign adversary.
John Hultquist, director of intelligence analysis for cybersecurity company FireEye, was somewhat more optimistic. These companies have "made a lot of big strides over the years," and have become very familiar with the threats they face from nation-states.
Still, collateral damage is often a side-effect of regional cyber conflict, Hultquist said, and companies operating in Saudi Arabia and beyond should also be alert for changes.
"Anyone with operations in Saudi Arabia, or I should say, the Gulf generally, could be a target," in the event of cyberattacks in the region. That includes those with home bases far away from the region, he said.
The U.S., too, has been traditionally targeted by Iran in times of conflict, particularly when the federal government imposes new sanctions on them, Hultquist said. If the Trump Administration issues new sanctions, watch out.
Hultquist said he didn't see indicators of an uptick of cyber activity in the region but that "it's generally hard to measure espionage operations."
All of the experts polled by CNBC agreed on one conclusion -- since Stuxnet, and despite economic odds stacked against them, Iran has become one of the world's most significant cybersecurity powers.
"They've never been the most technically sophisticated," Hultquist said. "But they have made up in their brazenness, their willingness to destroy and disrupt. They have really separated themselves on this from others, as if they have nothing to lose."
VIDEO3:5403:54Saudi oil minister says all capacity will be restored by end of SeptemberCapital Connection
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aa9314583533fd42c39defaf7500b1f4 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/tesla-solarcity-claims-detailed-in-newly-unsealed-court-docs.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar | Tesla and Musk hid facts about SolarCity deal and SpaceX involvement, shareholders claim in unsealed court docs | Tesla and Musk hid facts about SolarCity deal and SpaceX involvement, shareholders claim in unsealed court docs
Elon Musk speaks at SolarCity's Inside Energy Summit in New York.Rashid Umar Abbasi | Reuters
Newly unsealed court documents show why a number of large Tesla investors, including some pension funds, believe its $2.6 billion acquisition of SolarCity in 2016 never should have happened.
The documents are an opening brief in a shareholders' lawsuit against Tesla over the acquisition, but were previously heavily redacted. Legal transparency advocates PlainSite published a fuller version of the documents on Monday.
Shareholders are accusing Tesla of improperly valuing the SolarCity deal, providing flawed analysis and misleading investors, among other things.
The lawsuit, originally filed in 2016, is one of many facing Tesla and CEO Elon Musk, including a lawsuit from Walmart over solar installations that caught fire on the rooftops of some stores, at least two wrongful death lawsuits filed after drivers died while using Autopilot, and a defamation lawsuit against Musk from cave rescue hero Vernon Unsworth after the CEO called him a pedophile on Twitter and in e-mails to a reporter.
Tesla said in a statement to CNBC, "These allegations are based on the claims of plaintiff's lawyers looking for a payday, and are not representative of our shareholders who support our mission and ultimately voted in favor of the acquisition."
"The accusations made in the plaintiff's brief are false and misleading, as Tesla and SolarCity published all material information in its proxy and other public filings for all shareholders to consider before deciding on the transaction," the company said. "Providing clean, renewable energy generation through solar has been a critical part of our mission ever since 2006, and our acquisition of SolarCity has enabled and continues to enable a significantly faster path to achieve our goals."
The newly unredacted court documents claim to show the tangled financial and personal relationships between several Musk investments: Tesla and SpaceX, where Musk is CEO, and SolarCity, where he was the largest shareholder and chairman with his first cousins in the executive suite.
The documents claim that "Prior to the Acquisition, Musk described Tesla, SolarCity, and SpaceX as a 'pyramid' atop which he sat; it was 'important that there not be some sort of house of cards that crumbles if one element of the pyramid . . . falters.'"
Notably, Musk had previously invested SpaceX money in SolarCity, and important aspects of that deal were hidden from auditors Ernst & Young before Tesla acquired SolarCity in 2016, the shareholders say.
Specifically, the brief says SpaceX had poured around $165 million into the solar installers as non-recourse bonds, and SolarCity failed to disclose to E&Y how quickly they would have to make two substantial payments related to those bonds back to SpaceX.
Shareholders say that even though Musk claims he recused himself where it was proper to do so, he was never really divorced from the deal-making process. He and his first cousin, Lyndon Rive, the co-founder and former CEO of SolarCity, spent time hatching out a plan to save the solar company from a liquidity crisis while on vacation in Lake Tahoe in early 2016, the filings say. Soon thereafter, Tesla's then-CFO Jason Wheeler drafted a proposal for the Tesla board of directors to do the deal.
The filing says: "The Board did not reject Musk's proposal, as represented in the Proxy. Instead, the Board 'authorized management to gather additional details and to further explore and analyze' a SolarCity acquisition."
Just after Tesla closed the $2.6 billion SolarCity deal, E&Y said that the solar company was insolvent, the filing claims.
In addition, the brief claims that a majority of Tesla board members had financial interests on both sides at the time of the deal and wanted to see SolarCity bailed out rather than bankrupted in order to protect their own reputations, and their bets on other companies where Musk was and is still CEO.
VIDEO1:1401:14This is an ‘important watershed moment’ for TeslaSquawk Box Europe
For example, Elon and Kimbal Musk, Antonio Gracias, and Steve Jurvetson were all Tesla board members at the time of the SolarCity acquisition and were early backers of and board members at SpaceX. Ira Ehrenpreis, a long-time Tesla board member, held a board seat at SolarCity after funding it via his venture firm, Technology Partners. Kimbal Musk is Elon Musk's brother. And Lyndon and Peter Rive, co-founders of SolarCity, are first cousins of Elon and Kimbal Musk.
The court filings also say that a "fairness committee" at Evercore, financial advisors hired by Tesla to analyze the SolarCity deal, refused to issue an opinion on it. Meanwhile, the filings say, Lazard, a financial advisor hired by SolarCity, sought other bids for the company and couldn't find a single one.
The stockholder suit was filed against Tesla in a Chancery Court of Delaware more than three years ago. Stockholders were granted class-action status in April 2019.
After Tesla's current and former board members, including Elon Musk, were deposed the court documents were published with numerous redactions, obscuring details around SolarCity's relationship with SpaceX, and information concerning Ernst & Young, Lazard and Evercore.
Those documents were partially unsealed at the request of lawyers for the stockholders who are suing Tesla. PlainSite has filed a motion to unseal even more material.
Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech industry news.
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cc1594f6bcc8f371fe81371bdd4b8e70 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/nearly-half-of-empty-nesters-still-financially-support-adult-children.html?__source=newsletter%7Cyourwealth | Nearly half of parents still financially support adult children | Nearly half of parents still financially support adult children
VIDEO2:3202:32Parents spend more on adult children than saving for retirementYour Money, Your Future
As parents know all too well, just because your children have moved out, it doesn't mean you're off the hook.
Whether it's $100 a month for food or $500 toward a student loan bill, nearly 40% of empty nesters are still financially supporting their children in some way, according to a new report by 55places, an adult community comparison site.
To that end, the average parent shells out $254 each month, the report found.
"There's always been this notion that, once your children start their career, you are home free, and many empty nesters have found that that's not the case," said Bill Ness, the CEO and founder of 55places.
"Enough empty nesters realize that there are a lot of expenses that their children will incur and it will be very difficult if not impossible."
In fact, millennials face financial challenges that their parents did not as young adults. On top of carrying most of the $1.5 trillion in student loan debt, their wages are lower than their parents' earnings when they were in their 20s.
A 2017 study of Federal Reserve data by advocacy group Young Invincibles showed that millennials earned an average of $40,581 in 2013. That's 20% less than the inflation-adjusted $50,910 earned by baby boomers in 1989.
In addition, rents continue to rise even as housing prices outpace wages, making it even harder for those just starting out to go it alone.
More from Personal Finance:How to raise a whiz kid investorLate savers are on track to hit financial independenceCollege graduates owe more than ever before
As a result, nearly a quarter, or 24%, of empty nesters are covering cell phone expenses, while 19% of parents help with rent and another 18% foot the bill for groceries, 55places found. About 15% help cover their child's student loan repayments after graduation.
More millennials are also living with their parents longer. The average age parents expected their children to move out was 21, but nearly half said their child was 21 or older by the time they actually left the nest, 55places found. The site surveyed more than 1,800 empty nesters between June and July.
A separate report by Merrill Lynch and Age Wave found that 58% of early adults, which Merrill defines as those between the ages 18 and 34, said they would not be able to afford their current lifestyles without parental support.
And yet financial experts warn that supporting grown children can be a significant financial burden when retirement looms.
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7f5d98236641167983c555ed3958fddb | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/squawk-pod.html | Squawk Pod | Squawk Pod
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Squawk Pod is a daily, guided curation of the top moments and takeaways from CNBC's flagship morning show, "Squawk Box," anchored by Joe Kernen, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin. Each day, the podcast includes news making interviews, perspective and analysis from iconic guest hosts, and slices of debate and discussion—from the heated to the hilarious— all wrapped with exclusive context and color from Senior Producer Katie Kramer.
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bf24491134930d7d8185579e5c724875 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/when-netflix-shares-drop-this-fast-the-next-move-is-usually-higher.html | When Netflix shares drop by this much, this fast, the next move is usually higher | When Netflix shares drop by this much, this fast, the next move is usually higher
The only price dropping as fast as new streaming subscription deals from Disney and Apple is the stock price of streaming giant Netflix.
But there's reason to believe the next trading move in Netflix could be a short-term rally, according to a CNBC analysis of hedge fund analytics tool Kensho.
After gaining as much as 46% this year, the stock has tumbled, last week dropping 10% and erasing all of the gains Netflix had made in 2019. Over the past five years, the stock has had similar, double-digit losses on 18 other occasions. Two weeks after similar drops, the streaming giant tends to rebound. It gains an average of 3.6% — more than double the return of the S&P 500 during that time period — and trades positively 67% of the time, according to Kensho data.
Apple is offering its new streaming service for $4.99 (or one-year free with the purchase of a new iPhone). Disney+ will offer high-definition streaming as part of its standard $6.99 plan. Netflix's basic plan in the U.S. starts at $8.99 per month.
But it is not just the intensification in the streaming war that has Wall Street on edge.
Pivotal Research Group cut its price target on Netflix shares by nearly a third on Tuesday, to $350 from $515, warning that much higher than expected costs to license content will add to the new competitive pressures. Bernstein had cuts its price target on Netflix by 20%, to $230, last week.
Concerns about free cash flow and slowing of subscriber growth could also lead to weak third quarter earnings, according to Pivotal. And KeyBanc Capital Markets wrote in a note on Monday that even if Netflix turns in a good earnings report in October, competitive pressures will likely outweigh any potential for an sustained earnings rally.
Barclays put its bearish take in the most simple terms, calling the stock "very expensive" and arguing the streaming giant would need to grow its subscribers by at least 5x to justify its current valuation.
"The Q2 miss, coupled with the upcoming Disney+ launch in the US (and Apple as well, and more to come), has come together to make investors reevaluate their confidence in Netflix's subs and pricing growth," Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger wrote in a note, adding that "investors are increasingly asking us: 'where is the floor?'"
The analysis provided by CNBC's Jim Cramer on "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday was the most brutal: "Netflix has become an open sore to this market."
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8bcb0925db014e5a75e969b156a49877 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/25/cnbc-transcript-peter-voser-ceo-of-abb-group.html | CNBC Transcript: Peter Voser, CEO of ABB Group | CNBC Transcript: Peter Voser, CEO of ABB Group
Below is the transcript of a CNBC Exclusive interview with ABB Group CEO Peter Voser. The interview was first broadcast on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia on 23 September 2019. The interview took place at the Singapore Summit. If you choose to use anything, please attribute to CNBC and Nancy Hungerford.
Nancy Hungerford: Thank you so much for taking the time to speak to CNBC. Let's talk about the state of the business in light of the geopolitical tensions that are out there about the U.S.-China trade talks there will be great. What are you expecting?
Peter Voser: Thanks for having me here. I think at first if I look at the markets, we see obviously markets slowing down. We see mixed pictures in Europe and China quite clearly, you are still going reasonably ok, but also starting to show signs of slowing down. So this is specifically in automotive and discrete industries so which we see at the moment. The whole geopolitical discussion clearly has some impact in all of this. We see it on the customer base because they are slowing down in investments because uncertainty normally is not what we want in business terms. And this whole trade talk – or better say maybe the technology talk behind that – really means that a lot of customers and ourselves, we are thinking through on how we will run global supply chains, how we will actually structure our businesses in the future. It does affect us less in ABB but it affects our customers and hence the macro trends become important for us.
Nancy: And of course manufacturing, being at the centre of this pain in the U.S. as you pointed out, is key to ABB's business. When you talk about a slowing in the U.S., do you fear that it could get to a recession?
Peter: That's not what we are seeing at the moment so I'm more half glass full still that we see many industries still performing OK. But we see a slowdown in taking decisions to run or sanction bigger projects and that has the knock on effect over time. And the manufacturing sector clearly the automotive sector also there seems to slowdown. So I think the real impact we will see a little bit later, depending on how the companies are, or our customers, how they will take the decisions regarding large investment projects.
Nancy: The automotive sector too has really been a pain point in Germany and now there are fears about Germany going into recession. What could that mean? The broader European block, is that something you worry about?
Peter: Yes. Worry is a little bit too much. It's a challenge which is OK. So we need to solve it. But I think Germany's a mixed bag. We still have industrial pieces which are growing, but clearly as it is such a big automotive country, it is slowing down. And I think the automotive have two issues: consumption is slowing down on combustion engine type of cars and they are not yet ready on the electric side. So you see an overlapping here which slows things even a little bit further down and also pushes them into a kind of high capital spending over the next few years because they need to maintain some series of cars and need to build new ones, and that we clearly see in Germany. But we see it in China and in the U.S. as well.
Nancy: What does this mean for your automotive unit then as part of the company that does business on the manufacturing sector? Does business need to be restructured? Do changes need to be made?
Peter: Quite clearly this is the robotics business which we have, we are quite unique in that in our industry because we are the only ones in the automation field with robotics. Yes you are optimizing costs. You are taking some measures there, but we take a long term view and the aging society with the technology coming in for more autonomous manufacturing in all the big markets we see growth potential for the future. So it's now the time to think about that and get your capacities right. And that's why we announced that we had the groundbreaking last week of our new robotic innovation manufacturing happening in Shanghai. So we are going countercyclical on this one.
Nancy: Let's talk more about that because this gets to what is taking place in China. I mean when you look at just the lingering trade tensions, is that changing the way that you invest in China?
Peter: Not at all because we see this more as a short term issue because the Chinese market is big enough and has enormous growth potential. On the manufacturing side, I mean there are global manufacturing hubs but they also have their own big market which they can serve. They have an aging problem. So they need to automate as well. Yeah because they will not have enough trained staff and some are getting too old. So and it's also one of the 2025 China objectives to get more into automation. So for our automation robotics business we see a huge upside. China is not very highly roboticized today compared to Germany, compared to Singapore here, which is number one now in the world, or Korea and Japan. So there's a huge way to go and hence we see the whole situation positive in the longer term.
Nancy: And we know China has made robotics a big part of their 2025 plans as well. By setting up a factory in Shanghai, do you worry about intellectual property transfer?
Peter: We have been for 60, 70 years in China and I think we see the positive trends in China about intellectual property. They are tightening the rules, they are getting closer to western standards etc. and we have clearly department in place or an organization in place which watches this quite clear and carefully. But so far so good. I think we are not only setting up as I said the manufacturing price for robotics, we also have 250 people doing R&D and A.I. or robotics, like we have in China, we have 2000 people in our R&D centers. So we are using China also to develop IP for the rest of the world. So I think this gives us as a sum, a much better value.
Nancy: You've also been involved with Huawei in China and helping, I believe, in cloud programs. Do you worry about the scrutiny though at the moment around Huawei and what we hear often in the U.S. and some in Europe, that they perceive Huawei as a national security risk? Do you worry about those risks being a business partner?
Peter: I think in the digital world you need to work with ecosystems and partners. We cannot do everything on our own. Our global partner is Microsoft. We stand as your platform. We have developed our ABB ability. Now in China, we are offering through a company, the Microsoft possibility. We said sure, but we also needed China, Chinese solution in China for customers who want to have a Chinese provider of cloud. And that's where we have our partnership with Huawei, which is a partnership which we have for China in China. And we are offering both of them. So at this stage as we are operating with them in China, I think this is well accepted and it's an absolute must for us to be competitive in China, and our competitors have also different solutions in place and I think that's the way we all have to develop our business. So there is always a risk but we do not see this as an issue as it is for China in China.
Nancy: The scrutiny around Huawei though speaks to the fact that it's not just about trade anymore. When you talk about the issues that the U.S. and China are trying to work through, it's very much become a technology confrontation as well. I've heard a few voices here in the Singapore Summit who's talked about their concern about a bifurcation. Do you see that?
Peter: We see this day in day out now and we are preparing ourselves for that. I think we will have a multipolar world. We will have a bifurcation on technology and we have to be ready for that. On the one side, we always had a regional supply chain type of thinking and policy in place. So we produce in the region for the region. So we are a little bit less affected by global supply chain interruptions but quite clearly our customers are and global trade today is a trade of components. We are shipping them around the world or our customers which we serve. And that clearly will be interrupted in the bifurcated technology world or in a multipolar world. And I think the businesses are getting ready to deal with that.
Nancy: It can't be easy for businesses to navigate this bifurcation, and I wonder if that's part of the reason why you predicted a turbulent year ahead. I mean it's already been turbulent times for ABB. I mean just how turbulent is it going to be. Can you give us a better idea of what that actually means in terms of performance for the company?
Peter: I think from a performance point of view you do the typical thing when the markets start to soften, you start to tighten your belt on the cost side and that's what we are doing, but we always keep in mind medium to long term what we will need to capture the upswing afterwards and that's how we are planning. But I will clearly see the second half of this year and in the robotics field most probably in other two quarters more next year, which will be tight and tough. And we have just to weather the storms and go through that, without losing the long term perspective.
Nancy: What would you like to see in the way of a deal between the U.S. and China that would at least make things less turbulent or even smoother?
Peter: We are a great proponent of global trade. We are an international company. We want to serve society and the world with our products and hence we would like to have a global deal between the two which allows us actually to develop the international business hopefully with not too many restrictions on the technology side. Whilst I have to say that today, in my view, that's going to be very difficult to achieve. Will we get to some form of a deal at one stage? I'm hopeful on that because I think otherwise the businesses will suffer and I think the United States and China will suffer in their own home markets because they are depending on each other in certain areas today. So I'm hopeful that we will get a commercial solution which will still allow global businesses to do their business. Maybe with some touches of running things in duality like the technology and then it will be interesting to see where we can apply what and that's ahead of us now.
Nancy: Are you seeing the slowdown show up in business activity in China?
Peter: In some segments, yes; in some segments there are still growing very fast. But if I take discrete automation or discrete process OEM and automotive, that's where we see it coming down. But we see on the infrastructure side, on the building side, we still see quite significant growth, even double digit growth. But it is really mixed and if you take our robotics business that's half of it depending on automotive. And that's where you would see it, but as a company in the second quarter, we were still okay in China and excluding robotics, we were actually growing very strongly.
Nancy: It's not the only geopolitical risk factor that business leaders such as yourself have to contend with at the moment, quite a big shock coming out of Saudi Arabia last weekend here. The oil markets you might say have been pretty resilient and in ABB you have some exposure to the oil and gas side. I really want to draw on your experience back in the oil industry as well. How surprised were you by this attack at Aramco which is really seen as the crown jewel of Saudi Arabia's oil?
Peter: Yeah I think on the one side is the market reaction which is understandable because there were uncertainties as usual you never know how long it will take until have everything back up again. I think the kingdom does. Therefore Saudi Aramco will get it up as fast as possible but it also shows the vulnerability of our energy system, oil system, which we have across the world, depending on a few big players and if something happens there, then it has an immediate effect on pricing, on availability, which then has an effect on the macroeconomic side. So it may have an effect on growth. So I think it's also a warning signal to protect these types of very significant strategic assets in the future even more. And it's both, these types of attacks but it is also the whole cyber world which makes our life in business much more complicated.
Nancy: And it's interesting that Saudi Arabia officials there said this wasn't just an attack on Aramco facilities; it was an attack on the global oil supply. So as you say it, the defenses do need to be improved don't they?
Peter: Yeah they… we need to make sure that the global energy system is protected in such a way that it doesn't harm the economy across the world. And yes, there are a few players, which really matters if something happens. Saudi Arabia is one of them. I think Russia is very big and there are two or three more. You can also argue about that in the United States, but there it is more kind of scattered around. It's less in one or two units, but I think that certainly will now trigger some of the thinking on how to build, to defend the defensive part of it but also how we build these big beasts of refineries or gathering kind of refineries, or just bringing the products together. How big you build it because the vulnerability is there.
Nancy: And based on your knowledge of the shale industry in the United States, there was some discussion as to if oil prices were to remain high or go even higher from that initial reaction they had, what the shale producers would do, how easy it is to turn on the switch so to speak and react to the higher price environment. What's your view?
Peter: Yes it is. They can react much faster than the more traditional oil and gas business. I think they would clearly start to have a higher number of rigs and go for more resources again. Against that I think they're playing two things which is total oil demand in the world. One needs to watch that. And the second one is quite clearly a lot of the smaller players are highly geared in the shale business and they may also opt at one stage to pay back some of their leverage, some of their debts first, before they actually get them pumping money again into capital. But the payout is much shorter than for the bigger project. So typically you have an 18 months one answer. As soon as you start to pump and the cash comes in and that helps quite a bit on the shale side so they can react much faster, get faster to money as well.
Nancy: And just given the tensions we see in the Gulf region, specifically the tensions with Iran, do you think we could see some of these price spikes going forward? I mean is volatility here to stay given the state of relations in the Middle East?
Peter: The oil always reacted volatile to geopolitical events when producer nations were involved. Now it's with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Well we had it when Libya was critical. So then you will get volatility unless you are really in a very low cycle of the economy where there is a lot of surplus, which I don't think we will see that over the next few years. But therefore the volatility is combined with the geopolitical side in those producer regions that will always be there.
Nancy: So can I just conclude by asking you, you have few more months left until you hand over the reins, but you will also come back to the company from your post as chairman where you will go back to eventually. What is your advice for the new CEO? I mean what really needs to be done in this environment to keep things going?
Peter: I think in this environment, but also in general for ABB, we have to put this strategy in place which is for the next few years, it is now all about execution. That was a little bit of our weakness over the last years. So we need to really execute very fast and in a very high quality manner and that, if done, then you combine with a slowdown in the market, it's even more important. So it doesn't change the direction in that sense but it's just needed to do it faster and maybe a little bit deeper here and there in terms of costs. But that's what the new CEO then also has to do, because I have already started it now, because I'm not sitting around and not doing nothing.
END
Media Contact: Clarence ChenCommunications Manager APAC, CNBC InternationalD: +65 6326 1123M: +65 9852 8630clarence.chen@cnbc.com
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29d7655d68ccb25dd7dbdae8939987f5 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/25/powerful-group-of-us-ceos-meet-modi-raise-concerns-with-growth-in-india.html | Powerful group of US CEOs meet Modi, raise concerns with growth in India | Powerful group of US CEOs meet Modi, raise concerns with growth in India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting at UN Headquarters in New York, September 24, 2019, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
As the U.S.-China trade fight drags on, a group of powerful U.S. CEOs met with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi behind closed doors in New York.
India's growing middle class and population of 1.3 billion makes India an appealing destination for American businesses.
The opportunity to expand into India is so great that top executives including J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon, Bank of America CEO Brian Mohniyan, IBM CEO Ginny Rommetty and Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman were among 36 other executives who sat down with Modi, CNBC reported.
But just as the opportunities are great, so are the challenges.
CEOs are said to have used the meeting to voice their concerns.
Nisha Biswal, president of the U.S. India Business Council told CNBC after the meeting that "it was a really good conversation."
VIDEO1:0901:09Dozens of CEOs meet with Indian Prime Minister ModiHalftime Report
"I mean you have some of the biggest CEOs in America. The prime minister gave almost two hours of time and listened to a lot of the ideas as well as issues, and I think people were quite candid about some of the things they think India needs to do, and he was very receptive to hear those," Biswal said.
The timing of the meeting comes as India's economy has slowed to a six-year low and unemployment has risen sharply.
According to sources, during the meeting with Modi, the Indian leader tried to calm concerns about the slowdown
"I think the prime minister, when he walked in, he had these CEOs...a bit skeptical about the economy slowing down, but he lifted the mood, and you could see they were excited, positive and ready to invest more in the country," Mukesh Aghi, CEO of U.S. India Strategic Partnership Forum, told CNBC.
Consistency in policymaking, increasing access to India's retail banking sector and providing liquidity were the key topics banking executives raised in the meeting with Modi, according to people in the room.
India's economic team is considering to raise money via the international bond market as it puts more capital towards infrastructure and other projects.
Another point of contention for American companies is e-commerce.
A recent e-commerce ruling unveiled by the Indian government earlier this year has challenged Walmart and Amazon's growth in the country, but executives remain hopeful that this ruling will be relaxed in the future.
"We had a great discussion, I'm glad we came to the meeting. We have a tremendous opportunity in India, it's great to have this kind of dialogue," Doug McMillon, CEO of Walmart, told CNBC after the meeting in New York.
When asked if he though India would change its e-commerce ruling, McMillon replied, "We'll have to wait and see."
During the meeting, sources say, executives also pushed Modi to sign a trade deal and end the trade fight with Washington.
Experts say any progress made on trade will be welcomed by U.S. businesses that are trying to grow their market share in India.
Sources close to India's government say a meeting between Indian trade officials and U.S. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro took place yesterday in New York and both sides are hoping to unveil a "limited trade deal" in the near future that would give U.S. farmers greater access to the India market.
VIDEO2:5202:52Trump attends Texas rally for Indian Prime Minister Narendra ModiSquawk Box
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f348efb613c3f23e2b26b699ba34bb02 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/beyond-meats-stock-could-face-more-volatility-after-surging-on-mcdonalds-test-in-canada.html | Beyond Meat's stock could face more volatility after surging on McDonald's test in Canada | Beyond Meat's stock could face more volatility after surging on McDonald's test in Canada
Beyond Meat CEO Ethan Brown speaks before ringing the opening bell at Nasdaq MarketSite, May 2, 2019 in New York City.Drew Angerer | Getty Images
Volatility could be returning to Beyond Meat.
Shares of the maker of meat substitutes closed up 11% at just above $154 on Thursday after McDonald's announced a test of the company's plant-based burgers in Canada. The news did little to move McDonald's shares, which have a market value of nearly $165 billion, but Beyond stock hit an intraday high above $160. Its market value is just over $9 billion.
Since its initial public offering in May, Beyond shares have surged more than 500%. The stock climbed to an all-time high of $239.71 per share in late July ahead of its quarterly earnings report. But when the company announced a secondary share offering along with its earnings, the stock took a dive and has not traded above $200 per share since then.
Still, in August and September, the shares have experienced lower volatility, although they continue to fluctuate.
Trader and CNBC contributor Jon Najarian said it is unclear if the secondary offering resulted in fewer wild swings for the stock. Instead, he attributed the name's relative stability to more long-term deals with restaurants.
"The more you get stabilization in the orders, the more people will no longer just dismiss it as a flash in the pan," he said.
VIDEO9:5609:56McDonald's goes Beyond, Hong Kong's tourism trouble, and DOJ vs. FacebookThe Exchange
For example, Dunkin' started offering Beyond's plant-based sausage in New York City in July and plans to release it nationwide in the future.
However, a test in 28 stores in Canada does not ensure that McDonald's will pursue a larger rollout with Beyond in the future. Tim Hortons, the Canadian coffee chain owned by Restaurant Brands International, recently pulled Beyond's sausages and burgers from locations in all provinces except British Columbia and Ontario after a limited-time offer expired.
Since Beyond's blockbuster market debut, short sellers have targeted the stock in the hopes that they can cash in if the shares drop dramatically. To short a stock, an investor borrows shares with the expectation that the price will fall and the investor can repurchase them at a profit.
More than 41% of Beyond's outstanding shares are being shorted, according to data from S3 Partners.
Najarian said that short sellers will become more interested in the stock as it inches closer to $200 per share, which could mean higher volatility.
"Anyone watching charts will take a look at that," he said. "Lots of short covering to get it through that level."
Short sellers looking to cover their losses by purchasing the same number of shares they are shorting can push the stock price even higher. This unintended effect happens to stocks — like that of Beyond — with a high amount of short interest.
VIDEO8:4308:43How Beyond Meat became the hottest stock of 2019Food & Beverage
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a4b9df425eede5fff0035ea8454c14e7 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/26/delta-is-buying-20percent-of-latam-latin-americas-largest-airline.html | Delta is buying 20% of LATAM, Latin America's largest airline | Delta is buying 20% of LATAM, Latin America's largest airline
A LATAM Airlines Airbus 320 seen at Puerto Maldonado airport also know as Padre Aldamiz International Airport. (Photo by John Milner/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)John Milner | LightRocket | Getty Images
Delta Air Lines is expanding its presence in Latin America by spending $1.9 billion for a 20% stake in LATAM, Latin America's largest airline, a twist for Delta rival American Airlines that had pursued a joint-venture with the Chilean-based carrier to grow revenue in the region.
Delta's announcement is the latest example of how the Atlanta-based airline is aggressively expanding abroad through joint ventures or minority stakes with other carriers.
Foreign ownership rules prevent airlines from buying foreign carriers outright, so airlines have been increasingly turning to minority stakes and revenue-sharing joint ventures to gain exposure to other markets.
Delta said expects to exit its stake in Brazilian carrier Gol, which competes with LATAM in Brazil. Delta's latest annual filing showed it had a 9% in Gol.
VIDEO0:5700:57Delta buys 20% stake in LATAM airlines for $1.9 billionClosing Bell
LATAM offers service between major cities in South America and the U.S., as well as domestic service within Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Argentina and Ecuador.
American Airlines has been pursuing a joint venture with LATAM, a carrier it's already connected to through the OneWorld alliance of airlines. Such code-sharing agreements allow carriers to sell seats on each other's flights and allow passengers to earn and burn miles on those airlines. LATAM will be leaving the OneWorld alliance, but it was not immediately clear whether it would join SkyTeam, the group that includes Delta and its partners.
Regulators in the U.S. and in Chile, where LATAM is headquartered would have to approve the Delta stake.
"Our people, customers, owners and communities will all benefit from this exciting platform for future growth." Ed Bastian, Delta's chief executive officer, said in a press release announcing the deal.
In recent years, Delta has steadily expanded its ownership and relationship with other international carriers. It raised its stake in the parent company of Korean Air to 9.2%, announced a trans-border joint venture with Canadian airline WestJet and increased its ownership of Aeromexico, the largest airline in Mexico to 49%.
Bastian and his team have leveraged a closer relationship with Aeromexico to grow Delta's presence in Los Angeles, a key market for both airlines.
American said it is no longer pursuing the joint venture and that LATAM's change in strategy won't have a significant financial impact to American.
The Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier said a decision by Chile's Supreme Court earlier this year blocking the joint venture would have "significantly reduced the benefits of our partnership," adding: "we understand LATAM's decision to partner with a U.S. carrier that isn't burdened by the ruling."
In addition to buying 20% of LATAM for $1.9 Billion, Delta will also be spending $350 million to expand its partnership with the carrier. As part of the deal, Delta will acquire four Airbus A350 planes and assume LATAM's commitment to buy 10 more A350s between 2020 and 2025.
Delta is paying for the deal with existing cash and newly issued debt. It expects the investment to be accretive to earnings over the next two years.
In announcing the deal, LATAM's CEO, Enrique Cueto Plaza, said, "this alliance with Delta strengthens our company and enhances our leadership in Latin America by providing the best connectivity through our highly complementary route networks."
— CNBC's Meghan Reeder contributed to this report.
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fc4413ae52acacb59b3c0e158485a455 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/facebook-libra-cryptocurrency-project-a-walled-garden-ripple-exec.html | Facebook's Libra project is a 'walled garden,' Ripple exec says | Facebook's Libra project is a 'walled garden,' Ripple exec says
A Facebook cryptocurrency libra logo seen displayed on a smartphone.SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images
Facebook's plan to create a digital currency comes with one major flaw, according to an executive at blockchain start-up Ripple.
Marcus Treacher, Ripple's senior vice president of customer success, told CNBC earlier this week that a big problem with the social network's Libra project is that it's a "walled garden" — in other words, a closed system.
The term has in the past been applied to tech companies like Facebook and Apple in relation to the control they have over their software and apps.
Facebook's proposed libra token will be managed by a Switzerland-based organization known as the Libra Association, whose members include Visa, PayPal and Uber. The coin would be tied to user deposits in currencies like the dollar and held in a digital vault known as the Libra Reserve.
Ripple is known for its blockchain-based payments network that is used by some of the world's largest banks to move money across borders in real time. Blockchain, originally known as the network behind bitcoin, is a digital ledger that records data across a network of computers dispersed around the world.
Treacher said that Ripple, by contrast with Facebook, has "no walled garden": "Yes it's a network, but it has no perimeter. It connects with all of the players that want to use the technology."
The Ripple exec added that it was, however, still a "really good thing" that a Silicon Valley giant like Facebook was playing a role in the digital asset space.
The social media giant's plans for a digital token have come under intense scrutiny from global regulators amid concerns it could heavily disrupt the financial system. The worry for many governments, Treacher said, is that libra is "threat to currencies."
Ripple hit headlines in late 2017 and early 2018 amid a monster rally in cryptocurrencies which saw XRP — a token the firm uses — soar to a record high of more than $3.
Prices saw a massive retracement the following year, and XRP was last trading at about 24 cents, according to CoinDesk data.
VIDEO5:2205:22Ripple CEO: Perhaps some 'Silicon Valley arrogance' with Libra rolloutSquawk Alley
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d06e08f76895c68544b6fda246a83b35 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/prosecutors-agree-to-pause-in-subpoena-for-trump-tax-returns.html | Prosecutors agree to pause in subpoena for Trump tax returns | Prosecutors agree to pause in subpoena for Trump tax returns
US President Donald Trump disembarks after arriving on Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, September 26, 2019, after returning from New York.Saul Loeb| AFP | Getty Images
The Manhattan District Attorney's office told a federal judge it has struck a deal with President Donald Trump's lawyers to press pause on a grand jury subpoena for his tax returns.
In a letter Thursday to Manhattan federal court Judge Victor Marrero, a prosecutor in DA Cyrus Vance Jr.'s office wrote that "the parties have reached a temporary agreement" to "forbear enforcement" of the subpoena to produce years of Trump's financial documents.
Prosecutors will hold off trying to enforce the subpoena until Oct. 7 at 1 p.m. ET — or until two business days after the judge rules on whether the subpoena should be permanently barred or whether it can be enforced over Trump's objection.
In the meantime, Trump's accounting firm, Mazars USA, will start "gathering and preparing all documents responsive to the subpoena," the letter to Marrero says.
The judge signed the outline of the agreement shortly after it was filed.
A day earlier, Marrero temporarily blocked enforcement of a grand jury subpoena demanding Trump's personal and corporate income tax returns from Mazars.
Marrero said in a hearing Wednesday that it won't take him "weeks or months" to decide whether the subpoena should be allowed.
VIDEO12:5512:55The saga of Trump's taxesMarkets and Politics Digital Original Video
Trump's attorneys argue that the subpoena — issued in August as part of Vance's investigation into Trump's finances — can not legally be enforced against a sitting U.S. president.
The president's lawyers sued to block the subpoena earlier this month.
Vance's office is eying potential violations in how a hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels was accounted for in business records by the Trump Organization.
Daniels, who says she had sex with Trump once in the mid-2000s, was paid $130,000 in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election by Trump's then-personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, to keep her quiet about her allegation.
Vance is also investigating a $150,000 hush-money payment to Playboy model Karen McDougal, which former National Enquirer publisher American Media Inc. made months before the 2016 election. Cohen facilitated that payment.
Trump has denied having sex with either Daniels or McDougal.
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7f0bdf618270e46f37193988debe3899 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/27/waymo-valuation-cut-40percent-by-morgan-stanley-to-105-billion.html?utm_campaign=Your%20guide%20to%20AI&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter | Alphabet's Waymo valuation cut 40% by Morgan Stanley to $105 billion amid challenges in self-driving car market | Alphabet's Waymo valuation cut 40% by Morgan Stanley to $105 billion amid challenges in self-driving car market
Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving car division, is taking longer than expected to develop a commercialized product, leading analysts at Morgan Stanley to lower their valuation of the company by 40%.
In a report on Thursday, Morgan Stanley cut its valuation on Waymo to $105 billion from $175 billion, based a discounted cash flow analysis.
"Over the past year, there have been a series of hurdles relating to the commercialization and advancement of autonomous driving technology," the analysts wrote. "Most notably, we underestimated how long safety drivers are likely to be present within cars and the timing of the rollout of autonomous rides-sharing services."
Waymo, formerly Google's self-driving car project, has made aggressive strides of late, receiving regulatory approvals, improving driving systems and partnering with other auto manufacturers. However, CNBC reported in August that Waymo's self-driving car efforts still rely heavily on human elements, including having safety drivers present in rides.
Morgan Stanley said the biggest factors in lowering its valuation are that the overall industry is developing more slowly than anticipated and that losses in ridesharing will continue mounting, largely because of the continuing need for safety drivers.
In terms of Alphabet's current value, Morgan Stanley has a price target of $1,450, which implies a market cap of about $1 trillion. That assessment values Waymo at about $20 billion, "given industry uncertainty and investors' lower willingness to pay for cash-burning entities."
WATCH NOW: This Arizona town is overrun with self-driving cars
VIDEO13:0113:01This Arizona town is overrun with self-driving cars — here's what it's likeTech
Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech industry news.
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204ba7fb31d8a5406219f615e5be157c | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/5-ways-to-build-a-million-dollar-solo-enterprise-on-a-shoestring.html | 5 ways to build a million-dollar solo enterprise on a shoestring | 5 ways to build a million-dollar solo enterprise on a shoestring
Lise Gagne | E+ | Getty Images
Rajesh Srivastava always loved trading stocks and options. When he found a way to turn that passion into a software that helps traders analyze and respond to the market, he started a one-man business around it in 2015. He eventually left behind his career working for technology firms to run his company, priceSeries, in Sunnyvale, California, which he launched for less than $1,000 to cover three used servers he purchased on eBay, along with memory and storage for the servers.
He sells the software by monthly subscription to more than 2,000 customers a month, on average, and now has annual revenue of more than $1 million.
Srivastava has become one of a growing number of entrepreneurs who are hitting $1 million to $2.49 million in annual revenue before they hire their first employee. And many like him are hitting the million-dollar mark within three to five years. In 2017, the most recent year for which statistics are available, there were 36,984 firms at this revenue level, a 38% increase from 26,744 in 2011, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Most of these firms are solo businesses, but some are partnerships and family businesses.
And more firms are closing in on this range, with 282,819 generating $500,000 to $999,000, up from 264,140 in 2016 and another 629,837 bringing in $250,000 to $499,999, up from 590,948 in 2016, Census data shows.
These solo enterprises are in a wide range of industries. The top fields: professional services, construction, real estate, retail, health care, social services and finance.
I tried to figure out what the right way is to manage the business model. Eventually, it came down to a single person managing this entire thing.Rajesh Srivastavafounder of priceSeries
Some, like Srivastava, plan to keep their businesses very small to avoid the bureaucracy that comes with hiring employees. "I tried to figure out what the right way is to manage the business model," says Srivastava. "Eventually, it came down to a single person managing this entire thing."
Others eventually find it makes sense to start hiring a traditional team of employees.
So how do these entrepreneurs build million-dollar businesses using an ultralean operational approach? Here are five strategies they use to leverage their limited resources.
To stay focused on the big picture and boost efficiency, many of these business owners automate as much of their business as they can. Advances in data analytics, artificial intelligence and cloud computing have widened the options for business owners. Today technology can help them with virtually everything — from marketing to customer service. This frees time for high-priority pursuits that only they can handle — and sometimes saves them money.
Srivastava does this when it comes to spreading the word about his business. To attract customers to his website, the entrepreneur wanted to try doing content marketing but realized it would be costly for a business his size to hire bloggers to write custom articles. He decided to program his open source web-based trade analysis software to automatically create unique charts each day that reflect selected trades and what's going on in the markets. The system automatically posts each chart on the home page of his site, refreshing it daily.
This automatic method not only saves him money but has helped his business' search engine ranking, putting him in front of more customers. "Google and the search engines are picking all of this up," he says.
Even if they use automation, many solopreneurs reach the point where there is too much work for the owners to do it alone. Relying on freelance pros who can help them with tasks they would otherwise have to learn themselves — like bookkeeping, web design and digital marketing — helps the owners get more done in less time.
Alicia Schiro founded Aced It Events, her one-woman event-planning business in New York City, in 2016 and has grown the profitable firm to $1 million in annual revenue. Schiro, who won the Corporate Event Planner of the Year award from industry association BizBash in 2012, has organized events featuring luminaries like former NFL wide receiver Jerry Rice. Recently, she organized a 300-person event for a large corporate client that rented out Basin Harbor, a 700-acre resort on Lake Champlain, where activities included kayaking, hike and bike tours, Knockerball and sailing lessons. "I surprised them with a private firework show and finished off the night with s'mores," she says.
One thing that helped her to tackle substantial-sized corporate events is bringing on trusted contractors to help with tasks such as research as she plans a meeting. She finds them by tapping her existing professional network and asking trusted colleagues referrals.
She has not had to look far to find these team members, given her past corporate career in events. "A lot of my former colleagues work in the industry," she says. Having worked side by side with them in the past, she knows their work ethic and capabilities.
To extend what they can get done in a day, solo entrepreneurs also turn to outsourcing for everything from content marketing and bookkeeping to payroll. An added advantage of outsourcing is that it can also provide continuity, operational expense control and risk management.
Although priceSeries' Srivastava could have created his own payment-processing system, he decided to avoid the hassle of worrying about things like protecting clients' payment data. He relies on PayPal instead. This approach saved him time and money, since he did not have to hire a team to build a custom payment-processing system into his website and did not have to take on the regulatory costs and federal state compliance requirements that come with keeping the data out of the hands of hackers. PayPal already has set everything up.
"When it comes to payments, no one does it better than PayPal," he says. "They take a commission, but having them handle it takes multiple concerns out of my head. I don't have to be in the security business."
Many million-dollar one-person businesses turn to low-cost social media to market their brands. Inspired by entrepreneur Gary Vaynerchuk, Schiro, the event planner, has been experimenting with the tool Ripple to curate her own videos to share with followers. "I learned that from Gary V.," she says. "He's been saying LinkedIn is a new social movement."
Schiro has found that building nearly 2,500 LinkedIn followers and establishing a presence on Facebook and Instagram has helped her grow her business. Sharing videos on LinkedIn keeps her top of mind with clients who've used her services before and may need help in the future. Using Facebook and Instagram to share photos of some of her events helps build her brand's image. It sends a message that "Hey, if you're looking to do something, here is something we've done," she says.
Ana Gavia, 26, a former medical student from Melbourne, Australia, started Pinkcolada, a bathing suit company, with just $200 in 2017. A self-taught designer, Gavia sketched a bikini, did internet research to find a factory in China that was willing to make a prototype, and posted a photo of the swimsuit on a Facebook ad, investing about $5 in the promo. She started getting preorders and soon placed an order for her first 100 bikinis.
Ana Gavia, 26, a former medical student from Melbourne, Australia, and self-taught designer, started Pinkcolada, an online bikini store, with just $200 in 2017. Today her annual revenues surpassed $1 million.Pinkcolada
With orders rolling in, she designed several more styles, testing them for popularity on Facebook and Instagram before investing in manufacturing. She built her following by running contests such as free giveaways, where five bikinis were up for grabs. Entrants have to follow her page and tag three friends. "That's one of the most powerful ways to drive engagement," she says.
Today the company's annual revenues are more than $1 million.
Getting a business coach, taking an online course or joining a Mastermind group may seem like a luxury to those just starting out, but to many entrepreneurs who reach seven figures, committing to constant learning is a necessity.
Shirag Shemmassian was good at being a student — so good that he earned a Ph.D. in clinical psychology. But he also had a strong entrepreneurial spirit, and in 2013, while completing his studies at UCLA, he started a college admissions consulting business called Shemassian Academic Consulting as a side hustle, helping students with interview preparation and planning application essays.
While completing his studies at UCLA, Shirag Shemmassian started a college admissions consulting business as a side hustle called Shemassian Academic Consulting, helping students with interview preparation and planning application essays. Today he pulls in annual revenues of $1 million a year.
Today he has revenues of $1 million a year. One thing that helped him develop the right mindset to grow his business was investing in an online course called Zero to Launch by entrepreneurship and personal finance guru Ramit Sethi, author of "I Will Teach You To Be Rich," he says. It was a purchase that he might not have made during the early years of his business.
"My parents immigrated to the U.S. from Lebanon during the civil war in the 1970s," says Shemmassian. "It was all about going to school, doing well, getting a secure, high-paying job — living frugally. If I told my father I spent $2,000 on a video course, he would freak out."
Shemmassian has no regrets, believing that constantly adding to his knowledge base is important to growing his own business. "If I don't think it's important, I won't spend money on it," he says. "Once I spend it, I'm committed. It's very important to continuously learn."
Srivastava of priceSeries turns to his customers when he needs business advice, since there are lots of learning curves. "There is no better mentor than your own customers," he says. "They are going to buy from you. Any market segmentation study has zero value until your customer buys. If five customers are saying the same thing to me and there's a common trend, that's a new product. At the end of the day, five customers will give me the same value as a product management team."
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c89bee1d8937f0f64023302aee7f9648 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/30/us-stocks-investors-monitor-us-china-trade-impeachment-inquiry.html | Dow rises nearly 100 points to end tumultuous third quarter | Dow rises nearly 100 points to end tumultuous third quarter
VIDEO3:2203:22Stocks rise on US-China trade sentiment — Six experts on what it meansTrading Nation
Stocks rose on Monday amid optimism around U.S.-China trade talks as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile third quarter.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 96.58 points, or 0.4% to close at 26,916.83. The S&P 500 closed 0.5% higher at 2,976.73 while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to 7,999.34.
Tech was among the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500, advancing 1.1% as Apple shares rose 2.4% on a price-target increase by an analyst at J.P. Morgan. The analyst's new price target implies a more-than 20% increase for the tech giant over the next 12 months.
In a statement over the weekend, a Treasury spokeswoman said the Trump administration "is not contemplating blocking Chinese companies from listing shares on U.S. stock exchanges at this time." The statement, along with better-than-expected economic data out of China, lifted Wall Street sentiment on Monday.
Wall Street ended lower on Friday on reports that the White House is considering limiting U.S. investment into China, including a possible delisting of Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges, in a further escalation of the ongoing trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC those reports were inaccurate.
Chinese state media called the potential restrictions "the latest attempt at decoupling" and warned of "significant repercussions for the Chinese and U.S. economies, as well as their companies, in the future."
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York.Brendan McDermid | Reuters
U.S. and China trade delegations are due to meet on Oct. 10 as both sides try to move closer to a deal. Both countries have slapped tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods, dampening expectations for economic and corporate profit growth.
"The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but investors' skittishness has caused stocks to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of news headlines," Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, said in a note. "The U.S.-China trade war continues to loom as the biggest risk to the global economy and the main source of investor angst."
Peta noted, however: "If hard-nosed trade policy appeared to be pushing the economy in the direction of a recession, it is likely the administration would dial down its aggressiveness."
The Dow and S&P 500 gained more than 1% each for the quarter while the Nasdaq dipped 0.1%. It was the third straight quarterly gain for the Dow and S&P 500. However, the quarter was a choppy ride for investors.
The S&P 500 recorded its worst day of the year on Aug. 5, plunging nearly 3% amid worries over the global economy. Those concerns were sparked by weaker economic data and a yield-curve inversion, with the 2-year Treasury yield breaking above it 10-year counterpart.
Fears around U.S.-China trade negotiations also buffeted stocks throughout the quarter.
"It's been a rough ride for sure, but ultimately you're seeing the power of the central banks and the Fed helping support the economic structure as best as they can," said Dan Deming, managing director at KKM Financial. You're also seeing "the tone change around the U.S.-China trade narrative, which is positive."
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time this year earlier in September while other central banks pointed to easier monetary policy moving forward.
KLA Corp is the best performer of the third quarter in the S&P 500, gaining more than 30% in that time. Western Digital, Target and Lam Research all jumped over 20% in the quarter.
Macy's and Ulta Beauty did not fare so well. Both stocks lost around 30% of their value in the third quarter.
For September, the Dow and S&P 500 were up 1.9% and 1.7%, respectively. The Nasdaq gained 0.5% in September.
—CNBC's Elliot Smith contributed to this report.
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7ff5424e67a4be524d55f239e4a8dcf2 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/dow-drops-to-start-q4-but-theres-reason-to-remain-bullish-on-stocks.html | Dow drops to start Q4, but there's a historical case to remain bullish on stocks in final trading quarter | Dow drops to start Q4, but there's a historical case to remain bullish on stocks in final trading quarter
Recession red flags are weighing on the stock market, and if you go back a year, fourth quarter 2018 was a painful one for investors. But there is at least one historical reason to remain positive on stocks as the year's final quarter starts: It's been the quarter with the highest average gains over the past decade.
The S&P 500 Index has averaged a 4% gain in the final three months of the year over the past decade, according to a CNBC analysis of Kensho, a market data analysis platform. The S&P 500 had traded positively 80% of the time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had added 5% in fourth quarters over the past 10 years, trading positive 80% of the time.
That excludes the fourth quarter 2018, when stocks were battered and made the biggest contribution to a year in which stocks posted their worst performance in a decade. The S&P 500 and Dow plunged 13.97% and 11.8% in Q4 2018, respectively, their worst performances since 2011. The Nasdaq plunged 17.5% in the period, its biggest quarterly fall since 2008. All three indexes posted losses of near-9% in December 2018 alone.
Volatility is back, with the third quarter a bumpy three-month stretch for stocks, and October has historically been a high point for the VIX volatility index.
But the market has proved to be, in the least, resilient, closing out the third quarter with a slight gain. The S&P 500 and Dow added a little over 1% each. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slipped a bit lower, falling just short of the break-even level. And that's in spite of the fact September has historically been a bad one for stocks.
For the year, the S&P is up 19%, its best performance through the first three quarters of a calendar year since 1997.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.Spencer Platt | Getty Images
The market remains on edge, and the Dow dropped as much as 300 points on Tuesday after a manufacturing contraction. The U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% in September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction.
"We have now tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession in the U.S. and globally," Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, told CNBC on Tuesday.
In fact, the Dow loss on Tuesday was just big enough to wipe out the small gain U.S. stocks had posted in the third quarter.
"There is no end in sight to this slowdown; the recession risk is real," said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in a note on Tuesday, following the ISM report.
As always, past performance cannot guarantee future results, and the markets rarely move up in a straight line. So while the fourth quarter may add to this year's gains, we will likely see some volatility along the way.
The best S&P 500 sectors over the past decade in the fourth quarter have been the S&P financial sector, industrial sector and materials sector, all posting average returns above 6% and trading positive 90% of the time. Consumer discretionary is the other top performer among sectors.
Materials, industrials and financial stocks were hit by the negative manufacturing report on Tuesday.
The longer-term fourth-quarter track record shows strong average performance. Over the past three decades back to 1989, the Dow (4.3%), S&P (3.6%) and Nasdaq (4.7%) all show gains in the fourth quarter, according to Kensho, and trade positive 75%–80% of the time. Industrials, materials and consumer discretionary were top performers over the past 30-year Q4 periods as well.
Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at SunTrust Private Wealth, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday that while a setback before year-end is possible, he did not expect a pullback "anything in the magnitude of the 2018 sell-off" unless there is a sharp escalation in trade tensions.
With the final earnings season of the year about to start, companies within the market's leading sector of technology have been revising guidance downward. Twenty-nine information technology sector companies have lowered their guidance ahead of October earnings, the biggest number since FactSet starting tracking the data in 2006, and at least partially attributed to the ongoing trade war.
But State Street Global Advisors said stocks have remained strong in 2019 because investors are looking past a single-quarter shortfall. "US stocks have rallied sharply this year because investors expect that an eventual U.S.-China trade deal combined with a more dovish Fed will lead to a noticeable bump in future earnings," wrote Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, in a recent report.
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214675458bc3226f3189a05db900e20c | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/eu-trade-official-says-europe-must-stand-up-for-itself-in-aircraft-subsidy-fight-with-us.html | EU trade official says Europe 'must stand up for itself' in aircraft subsidy fight with US | EU trade official says Europe 'must stand up for itself' in aircraft subsidy fight with US
European Commissioner designate for Trade Phil Hogan arrives for his hearing at the European Parliament on September 30, 2019, in Brussels, Belgium.Thierry Monasse | Getty Images
The European Union's next chief of trade policy said the United States is not yet "in a position" to engage on proposals to end aircraft subsidies.
It comes as policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic prepare for a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling that could empower President Donald Trump's administration to impose billions of dollars of new tariffs on European products — ranging from civilian aircraft to cheese and handbags.
Outgoing EU Commissioner for Agriculture, Phil Hogan of Ireland, told lawmakers at a European parliamentary hearing in Brussels that if the U.S. were to impose tariffs, Europe "has to stand up for itself" and should identify American products that could be targeted for retaliatory levies.
Hogan is nearing confirmation as the EU's new trade commissioner for the world's largest trading bloc.
Hogan demanded updates to the WTO that could help avoid trade dispute resolutions driven by the "law of the jungle," and promised to work toward a "positive, balanced and a more mutually beneficial partnership with the U.S." He also insisted that it "takes two to tango."
His exchanges with legislators highlight the challenge facing a new European Commission under President-elect Ursula von der Leyen, Jean-Claude Juncker's successor.
Von der Leyen's new team seeks to underpin and strengthen a multilateral and global framework designed to tackle thorny issues ranging from trade to security, at a time when the current White House seems intent on undermining parts of the rules-based international system that so many senior European officials hold dear.
The complex dispute around aircraft subsidies is a case in point: It's finally nearing an end after almost 15 years of WTO back and forth.
VIDEO1:4201:42Here's what the World Trade Organization's ruling could mean for the USSquawk Box
The issue centers on competing allegations from Washington and Brussels that the two parties' largest civilian airliner manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus respectively, benefited from and failed to reform tax concessions and state subsidies that the WTO previously prohibited.
A three-person WTO arbitration tribunal is expected to rule this week on the value of trade countermeasures that will be available to the United States if it seeks to impose them on the EU for the decades of "launch aid." The WTO has said that aid helped Airbus compete unfairly with Boeing when it came to worldwide aircraft sales.
Back in April, the U.S. Trade Representative's office proposed a long list of EU products that could potentially face tariffs once the arbitration ruling is formally adopted by the WTO's de facto governing council, known as the Dispute Settlement Board, no later than October 28th.
His office had suggested that the U.S. suffered harm worth $11 billion, thanks to EU subsidies, and requested WTO approval to impose tariffs of up to 100% on EU goods, worth a roughly similar amount.
The Europeans had objected to that estimate, and as a consequence, the final amount must be determined by the WTO-appointed arbitrators.
VIDEO4:1804:18The WTO will reportedly back US tariffs on EU goodsSquawk Box Europe
That list of potential tariff targets was split into two parts and included products worth a total of about $25 billion to provide the administration with options.
The first half of it focused on aircraft and aircraft parts that were manufactured in four EU member states, the U.K., Spain, Germany and France.
British and German government representatives have not responded ahead of the WTO ruling.
Spain's Ministry of Industry and Trade told CNBC it would be not be commenting on the matter, while the French Finance Minister's office told CNBC it would be an "interesting day" when the WTO publishes its decision.
The list's second half included a vast array of products that could come from any of the EU's 28 member states, ranging from fruit jellies to yogurt, knives to handbags.
I don't think that it's in anybody's interests to start raising tariffs right now.Luisa SantosBusinessEurope
European titans like Danone, Nestle and LVMH, which are wholly unrelated to the aircraft subsidy complaint against Airbus, could face costly trade barriers as a consequence.
"It will have a huge impact across different sectors," says Luisa Santos, director of international relations at Europe's largest business lobbying organization, BusinessEurope. "It's not going to be positive."
The USTR's office did not respond to a CNBC request for comment about its potential response, although back in April U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued a statement saying the U.S. would "respond immediately when the WTO issues its finding."
But a remarkably similar WTO arbitration ruling, predicated on the favorable tax treatment and federal research financing that aided Boeing in contravention of WTO rules, is expected to permit the EU to take its own countermeasures against the U.S. in just a few months' time.
The only reason that the U.S. would strike now is to put pressure on the EU, and maybe get something out of the EU.Luisa SantosBusinessEurope
That has prompted EU leaders, independent trade experts and European business groups to suggest that a negotiated settlement before then is not only preferable for both sides, but necessary given the global economic slowdown.
"I don't think that it's in anybody's interests to start raising tariffs right now," says BusinessEurope's Santos. "The only reason that the U.S. would strike now is to put pressure on the EU, and maybe get something out of the EU."
Several trade experts and EU officials say that tariffs stemming from the WTO ruling on Airbus could be used as a cudgel, forcing European negotiators to include agriculture in bilateral trade talks, which have largely stalled in recent months.
For many, a positive recent development in the agri-food space that could serve as a model was a July agreement between the two sides on beef. This was, said the European Commission's Hogan, a "clear example" of the EU's willingness to "resolve an issue that's been going on a while but to do so through dialogue and cooperation."
- CNBC's Kayla Tausche contributed to this story.
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b3a044972c259987f6f34fa4bb7e8cf0 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/01/heres-a-map-of-the-forever-21-stores-set-to-close.html | Here's a map of the Forever 21 stores that could close by the end of the year | Here's a map of the Forever 21 stores that could close by the end of the year
Forever 21 on Tuesday released a list of the nearly 180 locations it could potentially close as part of its bankruptcy proceedings.
When the apparel retailer filed for bankruptcy on Sunday evening, it said it had 549 stores in the U.S. and 251 locations internationally. The planned closures represent about a third of Forever 21's entire fleet of stores in the U.S.
A company spokesperson said the restructuring "will focus on maximizing the value of our U.S. footprint and shuttering certain international locations."
The list, filed in court documents, said the company doesn't necessarily expect to close all of these locations, as talks with landlords are still ongoing to try to renegotiate leases and rents. But the 178 stores listed in this map are some of Forever 21's most unprofitable, and it expects the stores will close if no further deals are reached. (See the full list below.)
If deals are reached, the company says it will remove the sites from its current store closure list and file a new list.
"We do ... expect a significant number of these stores will remain open and operate as usual, and we do not expect to exit any major markets in the U.S.," a Forever 21 spokesperson said.
Liquidation sales are expected to be completed by the end of this year at the sites selected to be vacated. The company said it expects the inventory tied up at these stores is about $80 million.
CNBC reported on Monday how much the Forever 21 closures could impact U.S. mall owners. For many publicly traded mall owners, Forever 21 has been a top tenant. And in some instances, Forever 21 stores span more than 100,000 square feet, as the apparel retailer had a strategy of acquiring vacant department store space at one point to try to scale.
The store closure list released on Tuesday includes the Forever 21 store at the World Trade Center, owned by Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield, in New York. It has 18 locations owned by Westfield in total.
There are 16 Macerich locations on the list.
The list has 10 locations owned by Taubman, including its store at Beverly Center in Los Angeles. It has nine Tanger locations, which are in outlet centers, and eight from Washington Prime Group. It has seven CBL locations and six Pennsylvania REIT locations.
None of these landlords were immediately available to respond to CNBC's requests for comment.
VIDEO1:5401:54Is There a Recession Coming? Keep an Eye on These Key IndicatorsInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
Notably with only one location on this list is Simon Property Group, the largest mall owner in the U.S. and also one of Forever 21's biggest unsecured creditors, along with Brookfield Retail Partners. There are eight Brookfield stores on the list.
Also on the store closure list are Forever 21's stores in SoHo in New York and at the Mall of America.
"It's common practice for retailers in Chapter 11 to have a large pool of stores to close, but to then use that list to negotiate lower rents," said Bill Read, executive vice president of leasing, acquisitions and business development at Birmingham, Alabama-based Retail Specialists. "If they don't get help, they close. Today's landlords are fairly sophisticated and know how to play this game. ... They have had a lot of practice lately."
Here is the list of Forever 21 stores set to close, listed by store name and sorted by state:
Dimond Center; 800 E. Dimond Blvd. #199, Anchorage, AK 99515Tanger Outlets Foley; 2601 S McKenzie St, Foley, AL 36535Outlet Shops Of Grand River; 6200 Grand River Blvd., Suite 646, Leeds, AL 35094Mariposa Mall (F21 RED); 250 West Maripose Road, Nogales, AZ 85621Arrowhead Towne Center; 7650 West Arrowhead Towne Center, Glendale, AZ 85308Scottsdale Fashion Square; 7014 E. Camelback Rd., #2433, Scottsdale, AZ 85251Solano; 1451 Gateway Blvd, Fairfield, CA 94533Fresno Fashion Fair; 755 East Shaw Ave., Fresno, CA 93710Tustin Marketplace (F21 RED); 2856 El Camino Real, Tustin, CA 92782Del Monte Shopping Ctr; 1500 Del Monte, Monterey, CA 93940Palladio; 410 Palladio Pkwy., Space 1941, Folsom, CA 95630Glendale Galleria; 100 W. Broadway Ste E005, Glendale, CA 91210The Americana at Brand; 899 Americana Way, Glendale, CA 91210The River at Rancho Mirage; 71800 Highway 111 Suite #B19, Rancho Mirage, CAChico Mall; 1960 East 20th St., Chico, CA 95928Hollywood & Highland; 6801 Hollywood Blvd. #1C-134, Los Angeles, CA 90028The Plant (F21 RED); 7888-2 Van Nuys Blvd., Van Nuys, CA 91402The Shops @ Tanforan; 1150 El Camino Real Ste 348, San Bruno, CA 940662 Stockton Street (SF, CA); 2 Stockton Street, San Francisco, CA 94102Anaheim Plaza; 500 N. Euclid Street, Anaheim, CA 92801Vintage Faire; 3401 Dale Rd., #200, Modesto, CA 95356Lakewood Center Mall; 326 Lakewood Center Mall, Lakewood, CA 90712Inland Center; 200 Inland Dr., San Bernardino, CA 92408The Oaks; 350 W. Hillcrest Drive, Thousand Oaks, CA 91360Pacific View Ventura Mall; 3301 - 1 E Main St. #1260, Ventura, CA 93003Northgate Mall; 5800 Northgate Mall #043, San Rafael, CA 94903901 State St.; 901 State Street, Santa Barbara, CA 93101Galleria at Tyler; 3700 Galleria at Tyler Mall, Riverside, CA 92503Pasadena; 35 N. De Lacey Ave., Pasadena, CA 91103The Galleria @ South Bay; 1815 Hawthorne Blvd, Ste 188, Redondo Beach, CAHillsdale Shopping Center; 396 Hillsdale Shopping Center, San Mateo, CA 94403Parkway Plz; 415 Parkway Plaza #357, El Cajon, CA 92020Northridge Mall; 400 Northridge Drive, Suite #D01, Salinas, CA 93906Beverly Center; 8500 Beverly Blvd., Ste 835, Los Angeles, CA 90048Sun Valley; 329 Sun Valley Mall, Suite #121, Concord, CA 94520Fashion Island; 1101 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660Valencia Town Center; 24201 W. Valencia Blvd. #139, Valencia, CA 91355Santa Anita; 400 South Baldwin Ave, Arcadia, CA 91007Galleria @ Roseville; 1173 Galleria Blvd,. #P107, Roseville, CA 95678Oakridge Mall; 925 Blossom Hill Road, #X-15, San Jose, CA 95123Mission Valley; 1640 Camino Del Rio, San Diego, CA 92108Sherman Oaks Fashion Square; 14006 Riverside Drive, Space #244, Sherman Oaks, CAUniversity Town Center; 4545 La Jolla Village Drive Suite #H10, San Diego, CAWestfield Culver City; 6000 Sepulveda Blvd., Space #1450, Culver City, CA 90230Westfield Topanga Plaza; 6600 Topanga Canyon Blvd, Space #60, Canoga Park, CAGarden State Plaza; 1 Garden State Plaza, Space #1006, Los Angeles, CA 07652Tulare Outlet Center; 1695 Rutherford Street, Space A010, Tulare, CA 93274Denver Pavillions; 500 16th St Ste 178, Denver, CO 80202Flatiron Crossing; 51 West Flat Iron Crossing Dr., #ANC04, Broomfield, COOrchard Town Center; 14694 Orchard Pkwy, #300, Westminster, CO 80023Danbury Fair Mall; 7 Backus Ave. #M100, Danbury, CT 06810Foxwoods Outlets; 455 Trolley Line Blvd. Suite 170, Mashantucket, CT 06338Stamford Town Center; 100 Greyrock Place, Space #D-101 and #D-203, Stamford, CTMeriden Square Mall; 470 Lewis Avenue, Space 50, Meriden, CT 06450Shops at Georgetown Park; 3222 M Street, NW, Washington, DC 20007Woodies Building; 1025 F Street NW, Suite #200, Washington, DC 20004Rehoboth III Outlet Center; 36504 Seaside Outlet Drive, Suite 1200, Rehoboth Beach,The Shops @ Wiregrass; 28210 Paseo Drive, Unit #190, Building No. Two,Altamonte Springs Mall; 451 E Altamonte Drive #2329, Altamonte Springs, FL 32701Pembroke Pines; 11401 Pines Blvd, Pembroke, FL 33026701 Lincoln Road; 701 Lincoln Road, Miami Beach, FL 33139The Mall at Millenia; 4200 Conroy Rd Ste #206, Orlando, FL 32839The Gardens; 3101 PGA Blvd., Suite C107, Palm Beach Gardens, FLInternational; 2223 North Westshore Blvd Suite 2000, Tampa, FL 33607Destin Commons; 4224 Legendary Dr., Suite #F- 94, Destin, FL 32541Stonecrest; 2929 Turner Hill Road N.E #2460, Lithonia, GA 30038Savannah Outlets; 200 Tanger Outlets Blvd. Ste. 191, Pooler, GA 31322Guam Premier Outlets; 199 Chalan San Antonio Suite 200, Guam, Guam 96913Ka Makana Alii (F21 RED); 91-5431 Kapolei Parkway, Ste. 712, Kapolei, HI 96707Kaahumanu Center; 275 W. Kaahumanu Ave., #1034, Kahului, HI 96732Royal Hawaiian; 2301 Kalakaua Ave., Ste #209, Honolulu, HI 96815Pearlridge Shopping Center; 98-1005 Moanalua Road, Ste #231, Aiea, HI 96701Outlets of Des Moines; 801 Bass Pro Drive NW, Space #120, Altoona, IA 50009Lincoln Park; 865 W. North Ave., Chicago, IL 60642Kildeer Village Square (F21 RED); 20393 N. Rand Road, Ste 126, Kildeer, IL 60074Water Tower Place; 835 N Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 6061110 South State Street; 10 South State Street, Chicago, IL 60603Geneva Commons; 122 Commons Dr, Geneva, IL 60134Yorktown Center; 300 Yorktown Center, Lombard, IL 60148Forest Plaza (F21 RED); 6363 E State St. Space XF, Rockford, IL 61108Old Orchard; 4999 Old Orchard Center #J6, Skokie, IL 60077Eastland Mall; 800 N. Green River Road, Space #318A, Evansville, INShops At Perry Crossing (F21 RED); 2539 Perry Crossing Way, Ste. 100, Plainfield, IN 46168Clay Terrace (F21 RED); 14550 Clay Terrace Blvd., Carmel, IN 46032The Legend at Village West; 1817 Village West Parkway, Suite #F101, Kansas City, KSLake Charles (F21 RED); 3401 Derek Dr., Lake Charles, LA 70607Juban Crossing (F21 RED); 27853 Juban Rd., Denham Springs, LA 70726Mall of Acadiana; 5725 Johnston St, Space #D-164, Lafayette, LA 70503449 Washington Street; 459 Washington Street, Boston, MA 02108South Bay Center (F21 RED); 21-39 District Avenue # 39, Boston, MA 02125343 Newbury Street; 343 Newbury St., Boston, MA 02115Towson Town Center; 825 Dulaney Valley rd., Space #3025, Towson, MD 21204Ellsworth Place (F21 RED); 8661 Colesville Rd., Silver Spring, MD 20910Tanger Ocean City; 12741 Ocean Gateway, Ocean City, Ocean City, MDMontgomery Mall; 7101 Democracy Blvd, Space 1252, Bethesda, MD 20817Wheaton Mall; 11160 Veirs Mills Road, Silver Spring, MD 20902Macomb Mall; 32233 Gratiot Ave, Roseville, MI 48066Woodland Mall; 3195 28th St. SE, Grand Rapids, MI 49512Tanger Grand Rapids; 350 84th St SW, #480, Byron Center, MI 49315Twelve Oaks Mall; 27434 Novi Road, Novi, MI 48377Great Lakes Crossing; 4160 Baldwin Road Space #426, Auburn Hills, MI 48326Mall of America; 238 South Avenue #S230, Bloomington, MN 55245West County Center; 9 West County Center, Des Peres, MO 63131Summit Fair; 840 NW Blue Parkway, K-101, Lee's Summit, MOCountry Club Plaza; 111 Nichols Road, Kansas City, MO 64112Crossroads Center (F21 RED); 15140 Crossroads Parkway, Gulfport, MS 39503Cross Creek Mall; 425 Cross Creek Mall #TA-04, Fayetteville, NC 28303Asheville Outlets; 800 Brevard Road, Ste. 824, Asheville, NC 28806Northlake Mall; 9801 Northlake Mall Drive Space #201, Charlotte, NCDeptford Mall; 1750 Deptford Center Rd, Space #2111, Deptford, NJHamilton Mall; 4403 Black Horse Pike, Mays Landing, NJ 08330Hanover Commons (F21 RED); 200-240 Route 10 West Space 6-9, East Hanover, NJ 07936Cherry Hill Mall; 2000 Route 38 #1175, Cherry Hill, NJ 08002Short Hills; 1200 Morris Turnpike, Space D123, Short Hills, NJ 07078Brunswick Square; 755 State Route 18 #190C, East Brunswick, NJ 08816Santa Fe Place (F21 RED); 4250 Cerrillos Rd. #1030, Santa Fe, NM 87507The Summit; 13925 S. Virginia Street, Reno, NV 89511490 Fulton St (F21 RED); 490 Fulton Street, Brooklyn, NY 11201Soho; 568 Broadway, New York, NY 10012Woodbury Centre (F21 RED); 37 Centre Drive, Unit 010, Central Valley, NY 10917Fashion Outlets of Niagara Falls; 1965 Fashion Blvd. Suite 238, Niagara Falls, NY 14304Atlas Park; 80-40 Cooper Ave., Suite #4-002, Glendale, NY 11385Kings Plaza Mall; 5301 Kings Plaza #210, Brooklyn, NY 11234White Plains Galleria; 100 Main St., Ste 221, White Plains, NY 10601Crossgates Mall; One Crossgates Mall Road, #99x06, Albany, NY 12203Sangertown Square; 8555 Seneca Turnpike, Space # D06, New Hartford, NYGallera at Crystal Run; 1 Galleria Dr., Space #D207, Middletown, NY 10941Destiny USA; 1 Destiny USA Drive Space #99X01, Syracuse, NY 13204Roosevelt Field; 630 Old Country Road # 2041 A, Garden City, NY 11530Tanger Deerpark; 152 The Arches Cir Suite 924, Deer Park, NY 11729Oakdale Mall (F21 RED); 601-635 Harry L Drive Ste. 41, Johnson City, NY 13790Jefferson Valley; 650 Lee Blvd. #D118, Yorktown Heights, NY 10598Sunrise Mall; 1107 Sunrise Mall, Massapequa, NY 11758World Trade Center; 185 Greenwich St., Ste. LL4435, New York, NY 10007The Mall At Greece Ridge (F21 RED); 208 Greece Ridge Center Drive, Rochester, NY 14626Kenwood Center; 7875 Montgomery Rd, #2435, Cincinnati, OH 45236Eastwood Mall; 5555 Youngstown Warren Road, Suite #412, Niles, OHLiberty Center; 7530 Bales St. Space A-130, Liberty Township, OH 45069Tanger Jeffersonville; 8000 Factory Shops Blvd. #845, Jeffersonville, OHDayton Mall; 2700 Miamisburg-Centerville, Space # 300, Dayton, OHValley River Center; 222 Valley River Center, Eugene, OR 97401Monroeville Mall; 266 Monroeville Mall, Suite 226, Monroeville, PA 15146Millcreek Mall; 5800 Peach St. Unit #450, Erie, PA 16565Willow Grove Park; 2500 Moreland Rd, Ste 2001, Willow Grove, PA 190901708 Chestnut Street; 1708 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19103Plymouth Meeting; 500 W. Germantown Pike, Space 1355, PlymouthPlaza Del Caribe; 2050 Ponce By Pass Suire #112, Ponce, PR 00717Manolia; 2701 David H. McLeod Blvd., Space #1316, Florence, SCTanger Outlets Charleston; 4840 Tanger Outlet Blvd, North Charleston, SC 29418Cool Springs Galleria; 1800 Galleria Blvd, Ste #2520, Franklin, TN 37067Hamilton Place; 2100 Hamilton Place Blvd., Chattanooga, TN 37421Stonebriar Centre; 2601 Preston Road, Space #2148, Frisco, TX 75034Glade Parks (F21 RED); 1210 Chisholm Trail, Ste. 100, Euless, TX 76039Mall De Las Aguilas (F21 RED); 455 Farm-to-Market Rd. 375, Eagle Pass, TX 78852Westgate Mall (F21 RED); 7701 West Interstate 40, Ste. 542, Amarillo, TX 79121Village at Cumberland Park (F21 RED); 8934 S. Broadway Ave. Ste. 448, Tyler, TX 75703Central Texas Marketplace (F21 RED); 2408 W Loop 340, Waco, TX 76711Willow Bend; 6121 W. Park Blvd, Ste B121 & B214, Plano, TX 75093Tanger Forth Worth; 15829 North Freeway, #110, Forth Worth, TX 76177La Palmera; 5488 S. Padre Island Dr., Corpus Christi, TX 78411South Towne Center; 10450 South State St., Suite #2300, Sandy, UT 84070Tanger Park City; 6699 N. Landmark Dr. Space #L150, Park City, UT 84098City Creek Center; 51 S. Main St., Suite 162, Salt Lake City, UT 84101Regency Square; 1404 N. Parham Rd. #1124A, Richmond, VA 23229Manassas; 8300 Suoleu Road Space #031, Manassas, VA 20109Macarthur; 300 Monticello Ave., Suite #255, Norfolk, VA 23510Fair Oaks; 11750 Fair Oaks #H227, Fairfax, VA 22033Trails At Silverdale (F21 RED); 11467 Pacific Crest Place NW, Suite C100, Silverdale, WAValley Mall (F21 RED); 2529 Main Street, Ste. 128, Union Gap, WA 98903601 Pine Street; 601 Pine St., Seattle, WA 98101Bellevue Square; 248 Bellevue Square, Bellevue, WA 98004Outlet Collection of Seattle; 1101 Outlet Collection Way, Space 319, Auburn, WASouthcenter Mall; 836 Southcenter Mall, Tukwila, WA 98188Southcenter Mall; 467 Southcenter Mall #1545, Tukwila, WA 91811Mayfair Mall; 2500 Mayfair Road #0208, Wauwatosa, WI 53226West Towne Mall; 229 West Towne Mall #E16, Madison, WI 53719Morgantown Mall; 9311 Mall Rd, Morgantown, WV 26505Huntington Mall (F21 RED); 500 Mall Rd. Suite 603, Barboursville, WV 25504
— CNBC's Lauren Hirsch contributed to this reporting.
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b2c2d011fd536251959ba474a9d5fd70 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/google-pixel-4-pictures-leak-before-hardware-event.html?&qsearchterm=google | New pictures of Google's phones surface before its big hardware event this month | New pictures of Google's phones surface before its big hardware event this month
Pixel 4 in orange.Evan Blass
The same person who leaked several of Microsoft's new laptops ahead of its event has now published pictures of Google's new Pixel 4 and Pixel 4 XL. Google is expected to unveil the phones during its hardware event on Oct. 15.
Evan Blass (@evleaks) published the photos on Twitter, showing the phones in some of the different colors Google will sell, including white, orange and black. The most distinguishing feature is the new camera square on the back, which looks similar to the back of Apple's new iPhone 11 Pro and iPhone 11 Pro Max and appears to show three camera sensors and a flash.
Pixel 4 XL in whiteEvan Blass
Google has already confirmed the Pixel 4 is coming. The company first teased a picture of it on June 12. Similar renderings to the ones published by Blass leaked in July and, in the summer, Google confirmed some of the new features in a teaser video.
The Pixel 4 will let users unlock the phone with their face with technology that appears to be similar to Apple's Face ID. It will also support "Motion Sense" gestures using Google's Soli technology. It will let users wave their hand to skip songs, silence phone calls, snooze alarms and more.
Pixel 4 in black.Evan Blass
Google's Pixel phones typically offer the best Android experience available, with guaranteed updates to the latest versions of the operating system and unique features that aren't available on other Android devices. Owners of the current Pixels can use Google Assistant to screen calls for them, for example.
Google will talk more about the phones and reveal the pricing and release date on Oct. 15.
VIDEO3:4603:46Google's Pixel 3 and Pixel 3 XL have fantastic features, but they're priceyTech
Follow @CNBCtech on Twitter for the latest tech product news.
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f1add2aaf5d02f42eeb336a3f24a536a | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/palmer-luckeys-defense-start-up-anduril-developing-attack-drones.html | Oculus founder Palmer Luckey's defense start-up is now making attack drones | Oculus founder Palmer Luckey's defense start-up is now making attack drones
Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus VRGabrielle Lurie | AFP | Getty Images
Anduril, the defense start-up founded by Oculus co-founder Palmer Luckey, first made a splash with its virtual border wall technology.
Now, the controversial company is branching out into attack drones, with the launch of the "Interceptor." The artificial intelligence-connected, unmanned aircraft is designed to detect targets and "kill rotary or fixed-wing threats autonomously in any environment, day or night." It's envisioned as a way to provide another layer of security for military forces, as well as protect "critical infrastructure."
The company said it has already begun deploying prototype Interceptor drones to clients. Anduril has also signed a contract to issue the drones, which are its first computer-operated weapon, in conflict areas overseas, according to NBC News. Each Interceptor drone is about the size of a bowling ball and can destroy other drones without any damage to its own hardware.
Anduril has attracted scrutiny for its willingness to work with the U.S. government, while other tech giants such as Google have wavered on doing so. In recent months, Anduril has continued to grow, garnering a $1 billion-plus valuation in its latest funding round, which included participation from Andreessen Horowitz.
Luckey started Anduril after he was ousted from Facebook in 2017 amid controversy tied to his political beliefs and contributions to far-right groups and internet trolls.
VIDEO6:2506:25Palmer Luckey on Trump's defense contract scrutinySquawk Alley
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3da70244c31a4be636d8d7b0463df0b5 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/this-popular-medicare-plan-wont-be-available-for-some-next-year.html?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=12c5db3f-efcc-461e-94db-9116c706e4e3 | This popular Medicare plan won't be available for some people next year | This popular Medicare plan won't be available for some people next year
Hero Images | Getty Images
For people turning 65 next year, the lineup of Medicare supplemental insurance policies — aka, Medigap plans — will look somewhat different.
While the options will remain the same for people who turn 65 before Jan. 1, those who hit that Medicare-eligible age after this year will have fewer choices.
Due to a 2015 change in federal law, coverage for Medicare's Part B deductible — $185 for 2019 — no longer will be permitted in Medigap policies sold to people who are newly eligible for Medicare starting next year. (Part B covers doctor's visits and other outpatient therapy, along with durable medical equipment such as wheelchairs and walkers. Part A provides hospital coverage.)
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This change means the two Medigap plans that pay the annual Part B deductible — C and F — will be off the table for future 65-year-olds.
"Anyone who turns 65 before Jan. 1 can still enroll in Plan C or F even after that date," said Elizabeth Gavino, founder of Lewin & Gavino in New York and an independent broker and general agent for Medicare plans. "This only affects people who turn 65 after this year."
And, if you already have one of those Medigap policies, you can keep it and nothing will change, Gavino said.
Medigap plans, which are sold by private insurance companies, help cover cost-sharing aspects of original Medicare — Parts A and B — including copays and coinsurance.
VIDEO1:0901:09Four ways retirees botch their Social Security benefitsStraight Talk
However, Medigap policies can only be paired with original Medicare. In other words, if you choose to go with a Medicare Advantage Plan, you cannot purchase a Medigap plan. Also, these policies provide no coverage for costs associated with Part D prescription drug coverage.
When you first enroll in Part B, you get six months to buy a Medigap policy without an insurance company nosing through your health history and deciding whether to insure you. After that, unless you meet a special exception, you typically must go through medical underwriting.
Medigap policies can be pricey, depending on your age, where you live and the level of coverage you choose. A 65-year-old male will pay anywhere from $126 to $464 monthly for a Medigap policy, according to the American Association for Medicare Supplement Insurance. For a 65-year-old woman, the range is $118 to $464.
Medigap plan selection among Medicare beneficiaries
Plan 2017 2018 F57%54%N11%11%D & G15%19%H,I & J5%4%C7%6%A & B3%3%K, L & M1%1%High-deductible F1%2%
While a number of companies offer Medigap insurance, they can only offer policies from 11 standardized plans. Each is simply assigned a letter: A, B, C, D, F, G, K, L, M and N. Some states also offer a high-deductible version of Plan F (although it, too, will come off the list for newly eligible Medicare beneficiaries after 2019).
This standardization means that, say, Plan A at one insurance company is the same as Plan A at another. Be aware, however, not every plan is available in all states. And three states — Massachusetts, Minnesota and Wisconsin — standardize their plans differently.
The most popular Medigap option has been Plan F, which is considered the Cadillac of Medigap plans due to its generous coverage and higher premium.
And although Plan F (and C) no longer will be available for future 65-year-olds, Plan G provides the same coverage, minus the Part B deductibles. That is, its coverage includes copays, deductibles and coinsurance associated with Part A, along with 80% of your emergency overseas medical care (within limits).
I've seen some carriers that have a 30% increase in premiums from one year to the next.Elizabeth Gavinofounder of Lewin & Gavino
It also includes coverage for excess charges that sometimes happen with doctor's offices — i.e., balance billing, which is when the provider charges you for the difference between Medicare's reimbursement rate and its own charges.
There also will be a high-deductible version of Plan G.
Experts recommend giving thought to how often you use the health-care system when you're considering which Medigap policy to choose.
For example, one option might come with a lower premium because it offers less coverage. Yet if you use the health-care system frequently and that lack of full coverage results in many copays or bills for excess charges, you might end up spending more anyway.
"Those copays can sometimes cancel out the lower premium," said Danielle Roberts, co-founder of insurance firm Boomer Benefits in Fort Worth, Texas.
Also, it's worthwhile making sure the company offering the policy has a history of low rate increases.
"I've seen some carriers that have a 30% increase in premiums from one year to the next," Gavino said. "Others only have a zero to 6% increase."
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has a chart on its website that shows the differences. You also can use the agency's search tool to find available plans in your ZIP code.
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f90715d4139b934ac740a950608c5811 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/hp-hpq-drops-9percent-after-plans-to-cut-up-to-9000-jobs.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar | HP stock tumbles after the company announces plans to cut up to 9,000 jobs | HP stock tumbles after the company announces plans to cut up to 9,000 jobs
Hewlett-Packard Co. products are for sale in Shanghai, China, on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2009.Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shares of PC maker HP Inc. slid 9.6% on Friday after the company said Thursday it will lay off as many as 9,000 employees, or approximately 16% of its workforce. Shares reached a new intraday low for the year of $16.46.
In a securities filing, HP said it would cut between 7,000 and 9,000 jobs by the end of fiscal 2022. A portion of those employees are expected to accept voluntary buyouts. HP has about 55,000 employees worldwide, according to FactSet.
The layoffs are part of a broader restructuring plan that's expected to help the company save $1 billion a year by the end of fiscal 2022, the company said. The company will take roughly $1 billion in restructuring charges beginning in the fourth quarter.
Enrique Lores, HP's incoming CEO, told Reuters that the reorganization will help the company advance toward its "next chapter."
Lores was named president and CEO of HP in August after Dion Weisler stepped down from the role "due to a family health matter." Lores will become CEO of the company effective Nov. 1.
HP also stated in the filing that it expects to report adjusted earnings between $2.22 to $2.32 per share for fiscal 2020. By comparison, analysts are expecting earnings of $2.23 per share, per FactSet.
VIDEO2:0002:00Breaking: HP CEO Dion Weisler to step down, Enrique Lores to replace himClosing Bell
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848157fa4a6d6b43565bb7819b0016e4 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/jim-cramer-i-think-this-is-the-time-to-start-buying-shares-of-clorox.html | VIDEO4:0304:03Time to start buying shares of Clorox, says Jim CramerMad Money with Jim Cramer
CNBC's Jim Cramer said Friday he is bullish about Clorox's prospects, despite the downbeat forecast that management offered in an analyst meeting earlier this week.
Clorox revealed at the Tuesday event that it cut earnings and sales estimates for the 2020 fiscal year, but the "Mad Money" host thinks the share price is on its way higher because it's a stock that can work in a volatile market.
"In spite of that unexpectedly downbeat analyst day, I think this is the time to start buying Clorox. Although I wouldn't buy it all at once," Cramer said, framing the meeting as "a cleansing moment where management resets expectations ... by getting all the potential negatives out in front of you."
Clorox's updated outlook is low enough that the numbers can be beaten, giving the chemical manufacturer an opportunity to under-promise and over-deliver, said Cramer, who compared the stock's rallying potential to similar moves made by McCormick and Apple earlier this year. In January, the spice company and iPhone maker both made guidance cuts that induced buying opportunities in their equities. Now their stocks are up more than 40% and nearly 60%, respectively, from their intraday lows that month.
Cramer went on to point out what he saw as "good news" from Clorox's analyst day that got little attention. The company, whose household consumer products include Brita, Glad and Pine-Sol, laid out a new long-term strategy to invest in its brands and innovation to stand out from competitors. Management is also looking at as much as 4% net sales growth, along with 25 to 50 basis points of operating margin expansion and free cash flow generation.
"The issue here is that most analysts just don't believe Clorox can do it. They don't think it can hit the targets," the host said. "If Clorox can actually deliver on these goals, the stock deserves to go much higher."
Investors spent a bulk of the summer rotating money from high-flying growth stocks to a number of value and defensive consumer names, but Clorox is one that has been overlooked. Clorox shares are lagging the broader market and are down more than 2% this year since they began trading in the red in late September. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up nearly 18%.
Even if it takes time to climb higher, Clorox is paying shareholders a 2.8% dividend yield to wait, Cramer noted.
"When I see this kind of pullback in Clorox, I don't think sell. I think buy, although there might be more downside before it bottoms," he said. "But Benno Dorer is an excellent CEO who's more than proven himself, which is why I'm willing to stick my neck out and recommend putting ... some Clorox in your portfolio."
VIDEO9:0609:06Jim Cramer: I think this is the time to start buying shares of CloroxMad Money with Jim Cramer
Disclosure: Cramer's charitable trust owns shares of Apple.
Disclaimer
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08ddeaca4273e92375413a0eda31452d | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/jobs-report---september-2019.html | September unemployment rate falls to 3.5%, a 50-year low, as payrolls rise by 136,000 | September unemployment rate falls to 3.5%, a 50-year low, as payrolls rise by 136,000
VIDEO3:1703:17September's unemployment rate hit a 50-year-low —Five economists on what this means for marketsTrading Nation
Unemployment hit a fresh 50-year low in September even though nonfarm payrolls rose by just 136,000 as the economy nears full employment, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The jobless rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, matching a level it last saw in December 1969. A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also fell, declining 0.3 percent points to 6.9%, matching its lowest in nearly 19 years and just off the all-time low of 6.8%.
Stocks opened higher following the jobs report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up nearly 150 points.
Get the market reaction here.
Also, the jobless rate for Hispanics also hit a new record low, while the level for African Americans maintained its lowest ever.
At the same time, the economy saw another sluggish month of growth. The nonfarm payrolls count missed the 145,000 estimate from economists surveyed by Dow Jones; the expectation on the jobless rate was to hold steady at 3.7%.
Wages also were a disappointment, with average hourly earnings little changed over the month and up just 2.9% for the year, the lowest increase since July 2018.
The report comes amid uncertain times for the economy, with fears escalating that weakness abroad will bleed into the U.S. and possibly cause a recession. Readings earlier in the week showed continued contraction in manufacturing and a sharp decline in the much larger services industry.
"Today's data don't change the fundamental economic picture," said Eric Winograd, senior U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein. "The labor market is still strong, adding more than enough jobs each month to absorb new entrants to the labor force. But even with a strong labor market, wage growth remains muted, limiting the risk that labor market tightness will push inflation meaningfully higher. The question that matters most for the economy is how long the labor market can stay strong given the ongoing slowdown in growth."
Federal Reserve officials watch the nonfarm payrolls count for clues as to how the economy is performing. While the low unemployment rate is one sign of economic strength, the weakness in wage growth shows that the central bank remains a good distance from its goal at maintaining an inflation rate around 2%.
The central bank meets Oct. 29-30, with markets expecting another quarter-point rate cut, though the probability declined bit to about 79% following the jobs report.
"Job growth remains on its slowing trend even as labor markets continue to get tighter. While wages dropped slightly, finding qualified workers is likely to get more difficult," said Gad Levanon, chief economist, North America, at The Conference Board. "Overall, this report provides more evidence that the labor market is still healthy and does not necessarily increase the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the remainder of the year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics count for September provided both good and bad news.
Health care led the way in job creation while retail lost another 11,000, bringing the total to 197,000 in jobs the industry has lost since January 2017.
However, there was some additional good news because the previous two months saw upward revisions. August rose sharply, from an initial estimate of 130,000 to 168,000 while July increased from 159,000 to 166,000 for a net gain of 45,000.
Still, 2019 has seen a marked slowdown. The average to date for the year is just 161,000, compared with 223,000 for the same period in 2018.
VIDEO6:2806:28Steve Liesman: Revisions to jobs numbers are strongSquawk Box
The drop in the unemployment rate, though, was for positive reasons, as it did not reflect a corresponding decline in the labor force participation rate, which held steady at 63.2%. The total labor force increased by 117,000, while the employment-to-population ratio increased one-tenth of a point to 61%.
Unemployment also fell sharply for Asian Americans, dropping to 2.5% while the level for Hispanics fell to 3.9%, both declines of 0.3 percentage points.
Health care's 39,000 new jobs set the pace for the month, while professional and business services increased by 34,000, though the industry's 35,000 per month average is below the 47,000 in 2018.
Government jobs continued to rise, increasing by 22,000 though unlike in August the cause was not Census hiring, which rose by just 1,000. The average work week was little changed at 34.4 hours.
Job growth skewed toward full time, which saw its ranks rise by 305,000, while part-time positions increased by 121,000.
VIDEO8:1708:17Why Walmart is hiring more teenagersInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow.
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91b5a27f7a00e2e61d9e43942ad9f402 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/mester-consumers-holding-up-economy-as-trade-issues-weigh-it-down.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail | Loretta Mester says consumers are holding up the economy, even as trade issues weigh it down | Loretta Mester says consumers are holding up the economy, even as trade issues weigh it down
VIDEO4:3704:37Fed President Loretta Mester: Consumer side seems to be holding upClosing Bell
It's trade policy, not Fed policy, that's slowing economic growth, Loretta Mester, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, told CNBC on Friday.
"Global growth is slowing, trade policy has created uncertainty and tariffs have an impact as well," she said on Closing Bell. "Those factors really account for some of the slowdown we've seen abroad and into the manufacturing sector in the U.S. and also the export side of the U.S. economy."
Consumers, however, continue to maintain the economy's strength against slowing pressures, as evidenced by Friday's jobs report showing the unemployment rate at 3.5%.
VIDEO5:0405:04Cleveland Fed President Mester: Thought jobs report was 'pretty solid'Closing Bell
Mester called it a solid report but gave few hints as to how she's now leaning as the central bank is slated to announce another decision on its rates when it meets Oct. 30.
"I won't say today because I really think it's important we really look at the incoming information," she said.
She said she's watching for signs the consumer is weakening, but so far consumers are holding up well.
As for criticism from President Donald Trump, who has called the Fed's members "boneheads" for not lowering rates fast enough, Mester said the Fed sticks to its discussions about its dual mandate to keep inflation and employment at healthy levels.
"There's always challenges out there," she said, "and we have to look through it."
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dd5d6ddf04cf5413796213a2ec043c05 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/walmart-to-sell-womens-apparel-brand-modcloth-to-go-global-retail.html | Walmart to sell online women's apparel brand ModCloth to Go Global Retail | Walmart to sell online women's apparel brand ModCloth to Go Global Retail
ModCloth was founded in 2002.Source: Modcloth
Walmart is selling online women's apparel business ModCloth, which it acquired in March 2017, to Go Global Retail, the companies announced Friday afternoon.
A Walmart spokesperson declined to comment on the terms of the deal.
A press release said Go Global Retail will invest primarily in building out ModCloth's website, as ModCloth operates as a freestanding and independent fashion brand. Go Global Retail, founded in 2011, is a brand investment platform that has worked with other apparel companies including VF Corp., Guess and Billabong, according to its website.
ModCloth was founded in 2002 as a trendy apparel business, selling its bright-colored sweaters and patterned dresses mainly online and targeting women ages 18 to 35. It's since opened a handful of stores where customers can try on items but inventory can't be taken home. Instead, they're able to order them, at no cost for shipping. ModCloth is also sold in Nordstrom.
For Walmart, its deal to buy ModCloth about two years ago was part of a bigger push to grow online, following its acquisition of Jet.com in 2016, where it also gained Marc Lore, who heads up Walmart's U.S. e-commerce business. The price tag of the ModCloth deal also wasn't disclosed at that time.
For the most part, Walmart has kept these younger and trendier brands — such as plus-size apparel brand Eloquii and men's apparel maker Bonobos — out of its own stores and off its website, so as not to dilute the way shoppers view them. Instead, it's used the deals to gain talent and to learn more about their customers.
But those acquisition efforts have recently stalled, with Walmart's e-commerce business losing money and some of its acquisitions, including ModCloth and Bonobos, remaining unprofitable, according to a report from Vox.
Instead, Lore and Bonobos co-founder Andy Dunn, who had played a key role in Walmart's string of start-up acquisitions, have both said Walmart plans to focus more on incubating its own brands for the foreseeable future. It launched a direct-to-consumer mattress brand called Allswell last year, for example.
Ashley Hubka, senior vice president of corporate strategy, development and partnerships at Walmart, said in a statement Friday: "We believe that ModCloth's strong brand equity positions it for growth in the future. We feel good about the progress at ModCloth and believe that Go Global's team and scale out strategy presents an attractive opportunity for the employees and customers of this beloved brand."
The companies said the deal is expected to close later this year.
VIDEO1:0901:09Bonobos' CEO: How Walmart helped us scaleEvolve
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bb751e348beb984140f6077b31d653e3 | https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/05/economy-is-hitting-a-soft-patch-but-pnc-expects-record-market-gains.html | Economy is hitting a 'soft patch,' but PNC expects market to reclaim record highs this quarter | Economy is hitting a 'soft patch,' but PNC expects market to reclaim record highs this quarter
PNC Financial's Amanda Agati expects the fourth quarter to take investors on a wild ride.
But that doesn't mean investors will be clutching their stomachs the whole time.
According to the firm's chief investment strategist, stocks should still deliver gains for investors over the next three months despite the recent batch of sluggish economic reports.
"We're feeling the effects of that hangover from a slower sluggish summer in the data that's coming out more recently. So, no question the data is mixed. Soft data is just that: It's soft," Agati said Friday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
Agati, who doesn't envision a recession hitting the U.S. until at least 2021, believes the bullish driver will be third quarter earnings season, which is scheduled to kick-off the week of October 14.
"Q3 and Q4 earnings will come in better than expected," said Agati, who predicts the results will help the market rise 4 to 5% from current levels. That gain would put the S&P 500 and Dow back at record highs.
Right now, Refinitiv estimates Q3 earnings per share for the S&P 500 will fall by 2.7%.
"All the headlines and negativity is an underappreciated positive in our view," said Agati.
Instead of focusing on headline risks associated with the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the uncertainty surrounding monetary policy and next year's election, Agati recommends investors focus on fundamentals.
"The market should really be focused on the earnings backdrop," she added. "The challenge is that the market is really struggling to price in the high degree of uncertainty associated with all these lingering macro headwinds."
It has been anything but calm on Wall Street in the fourth quarter's first week.
Despite Friday's rally, the Dow and S&P 500 saw their third negative week in a row and are off about 3% from record highs.
"I wouldn't put too much stock in the challenge in the first part of this week," Agati said. "We have a very broad-based easing policy across the globe, and I think that will be a strong underlying level of support for the market."
Disclaimer
VIDEO5:5605:56Economy hitting 'soft patch,' but PNC sees no cause for alarmTrading Nation
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