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0515c276a95c4e8fada97151bab7f2de | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Torgils-Knutsson | Torgils Knutsson | Torgils Knutsson
…magnates, especially by the marsk, Torgils Knutsson; even after Birger’s coronation in 1302, Torgils retained much of his power. The king’s younger brothers Erik and Valdemar, who were made dukes, attempted to establish their own policies and were forced to flee to Norway (1304), where they received support from the…
In 1293 Torgils Knutsson launched an expedition in an attempt to conquer all of Karelia and built a fortress in Viipuri. The war lasted until 1323, when the Treaty of Pähkinäsaari (Nöteborg; now Petrokrepost) drew the boundary between the Russian and Swedish spheres of influence in a…
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484c670751b971530449cd580d57f611 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Torsten-Hagerstrand | Torsten Hägerstrand | Torsten Hägerstrand
…the work of Swedish geographer Torsten Hägerstrand was seminal. He added spatial components to sociological and economic models of the diffusion of information. According to Hägerstrand, the main centres of innovation tend to be the largest cities, from which new ideas and practices spread down the urban hierarchies and across…
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916b339b154f5b15566eb695111e385f | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tre-Cool | Tré Cool | Tré Cool
May 4, 1972, Berkeley), and Tré Cool (byname of Frank Edwin Wright III, b. December 9, 1972, Willits, California). Other members included Al Sobrante (byname of John Kiffmeyer).
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81cb9a62491f0666df5604808b1950ed | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Trisha-Yearwood | Trisha Yearwood | Trisha Yearwood
…star and frequent duet partner Trisha Yearwood. While he remained committed to his “retirement,” Brooks occasionally performed live shows—most notably at a series of nine sold-out concerts in Kansas City, Missouri, in 2007 and a five-show benefit for Los Angeles firefighters and wildfire victims in 2008. These brief engagements seemed…
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518f39999933e2f6296f97614b773008 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Troy-Aikman | Troy Aikman | Troy Aikman
Troy Aikman, in full Troy Kenneth Aikman, (born November 21, 1966, West Covina, California, U.S.), American gridiron football quarterback who led the Dallas Cowboys of the National Football League (NFL) to three Super Bowl victories (1993, 1994, and 1996).
Aikman was raised in Cerritos, a suburb of Los Angeles, before moving with his family to the small town of Henryetta, Oklahoma, where he was an all-state high school standout. He was recruited by coaches Barry Switzer of the University of Oklahoma and Jimmy Johnson of Oklahoma State University; both later went on to coach him as a professional with the Cowboys. Aikman chose the University of Oklahoma, but he left the school after Switzer introduced the wishbone formation to the Oklahoma offense, emphasizing a running game at the expense of Aikman’s strong passing skills. Aikman subsequently attended the University of California, Los Angeles, where, as a transfer student, he had to sit out the 1986 season. He excelled in his remaining two years at UCLA, leading his squad to a 20–4 record, with postseason victories in the Aloha Bowl (December 1987) and the Cotton Bowl (January 1989). He was named All-American in his senior year and placed third in the polling for the Heisman Trophy, college football’s most prestigious award.
The Cowboys, one of the most dominant and popular teams in the 1970s, had fallen on lean times by 1989, when the team made Aikman the overall number one draft selection. He fared poorly in his first few seasons, throwing more interceptions than touchdown passes and missing games because of injuries. In 1992–93, however, his first season without injuries, Aikman led the team—which included running back Emmitt Smith and receiver Michael Irvin—to a Super Bowl victory as the Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Bills. Aikman was named the game’s Most Valuable Player. In 1994 the Cowboys again played the Bills in the Super Bowl and defended their title. Two years later Aikman guided Dallas to victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers for another Super Bowl championship. In 1996 he also appeared in his sixth consecutive Pro Bowl. The following year he threw for more than 3,000 passing yards—the fourth time he had accomplished the feat during his career—but the Cowboys failed to make the play-offs. Various injuries, notably concussions, limited his play over the next several seasons, and in April 2001 he retired. Aikman subsequently became a television football analyst. In 2006 he was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
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f7776e889798259ad85a519e12ec9e41 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Truganini | Truganini | Truganini
The death in 1876 of Truganini, a Tasmanian Aboriginal woman who had aided the resettlement on Flinders Island, gave rise to the widely propagated myth that the Aboriginal people of Tasmania had become extinct.
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6b0099eafe32b36081e895aa05182363 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tsanko-Lavrenov | Tsanko Lavrenov | Tsanko Lavrenov
…scenes of his native country; Tsanko Lavrenov, a noted graphic artist and art critic who also painted scenes of old Bulgarian towns; Zlatyo Boyadjiev, noted for his village portraits; and Ilya Petrov, who painted scenes and themes from Bulgarian history. After World War II, Socialist Realism dominated Bulgarian artistic circles.…
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c3237785670b537c17df51fd11cb7f75 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tsong-kha-pa | Tsong-kha-pa | Tsong-kha-pa
Tsong-kha-pa, (born 1357—died 1419), Tibetan lama who founded a new Tibetan Buddhist sect known as the Dge-lugs-pa (q.v.), literally “Model of Virtue” but more commonly referred to as the Yellow Hat sect to distinguish it from the older Red Hat sect. Hoping to restore monastic discipline, Tsong-kha-pa enforced celibacy, required the wearing of yellow robes, and insisted on adherence to a rigorous routine. The sect eventually gained considerable influence in Mongolia; with Mongol aid, Tsong-kha-pa’s successors were eventually (1642) installed as the rulers of Tibet with the title Dalai Lama.
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1b7e7ae0d39a8bfc2d4581cf22ba18ad | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tuanku-Abdul-Rahman | Tuanku Abdul Rahman | Tuanku Abdul Rahman
Tuanku Abdul Rahman, (born August 24, 1895, Sri Menanti, Malaya [now Malaysia]—died April 1, 1960, Kuala Lumpur), first supreme chief of state of the Federation of Malaya. After the declaration of independence from Great Britain in 1957, the tuanku became the first head of state, or paramount ruler, elected by and from the Malay rulers for a five-year term. Abdul Rahman died before completion of his term.
The son of Tuanku Mohammed, ruler of the state of Negri Sembilan, Abdul Rahman in 1925 accompanied his father to England, where he remained to study law; he was called to the bar from the Inner Temple in 1928. After returning to Malaya, he held a variety of posts in the civil service. On the death of his father in 1933, he succeeded to the throne of Negri Sembilan.
Abdul Rahman was a retiring and kindly man who learned from his father a deep respect for constitutional law and a sympathy for his people. (He should not be confused with Tunku Abdul Rahman, who was independent Malaya’s first prime minister.)
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a1aba18110f24f456201df507e19377e | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tucker-Carlson | Tucker Carlson | Tucker Carlson
…she began appearing on conservative Tucker Carlson’s MSNBC talk program. Engaging in polite but often heated discussions with Carlson, she cemented her image as a formidable debater.
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0d2044919eb15794ec68c582fa7c3aa3 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tudhaliyas-IV | Tudhaliyas IV | Tudhaliyas IV
…empire during the reign of Tudhaliyas IV (c. 1250–20 bce). With the fall of the Hittite empire, lack of textual evidence has left unknown the fate of the Ahhiyawāns after the 13th century bce.
…sanctuary was completed by King Tudhaliyas IV during the 13th century bc, the last period of the Hittite empire, when Hurrian religious and cultural influence had become predominant. The shrine, therefore, canonized the official Hurrianized cult of the Hittite capital city.
…death of Hattusilis, his son Tudhaliyas IV (c. 1240–10 bce) extended his father’s reforms to the structure and institutions of the Hittite state religion. In this he was much influenced by his mother, Puduhepa, who became coregent with Tudhaliyas. It was probably during their reign that the rock reliefs depicting…
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42b994512f44011ce01b66d4261e78ee | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tudor-Vladimirescu | Tudor Vladimirescu | Tudor Vladimirescu
Tudor Vladimirescu, (born c. 1780, Vladimiri, Walachia [now in Romania]—died June 7, 1821, Târgoviște), national hero, leader of the popular uprising of 1821 in Walachia.
A participant in the Russo-Turkish War (1806–12), Vladimirescu was influenced by the anti-Ottoman autonomist movement in Serbia. He initially allied himself with the Greek revolutionary society—the Philikí Etaireía (“Friendly Brotherhood”)—that sought to overturn Turkish rule throughout the Balkans. With the Etairist rising in Moldavia under Gen. Alexander Ypsilantis (March 1821), however, he disavowed the Greek leadership of the revolution in the Romanian principalities. He organized a popular rising in Walachia to evict the predominantly Greek administration imposed by the Turkish government and end the spoliation of the native Romanian aristocracy (boieri) and the Romanian people. His eventual accommodation to the provisional aristocratic government at Bucharest, however, eroded his considerable initial support. When Ypsilantis suspected Vladimirescu of conspiring with the Turks to cut off the retreat of the Greek revolutionary forces from the Bucharest region, he ordered the arrest of the Romanian leader, who was court-martialed and executed.
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a726f476ebd8290351a03f7e4efba413 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tunku-Abdul-Rahman-Putra-Alhaj | Tunku Abdul Rahman Putra Alhaj | Tunku Abdul Rahman Putra Alhaj
Tunku Abdul Rahman Putra Alhaj, (born Feb. 8, 1903, Alor Star, Kedah, Malaya [now Malaysia]—died Dec. 6, 1990, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia), first prime minister of independent Malaya (1957–63) and then of Malaysia (1963–70), under whose leadership the newly formed government was stabilized.
After studies in England (1920–31), Abdul Rahman returned to Malaya to enter the Kedah civil service. In 1947 he returned to England, was called to the bar in 1949, and was appointed a deputy public prosecutor in the Malayan Federal Legal Department, a post he resigned in 1951 to begin a political career. He became president of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) and effected the alliance of UMNO with the Malayan Chinese Association (1951) and with the Malayan Indian Congress (1955). His Alliance Party won an overwhelming majority in the election of 1955, and Abdul Rahman became chief minister and home minister of Malaya.
The mission he led to London (January 1956) to negotiate for independence secured immediate internal self-government and the pledge of independence by August 1957. When Malaya became independent, he became its first prime minister and foreign minister, and he continued in that post when the federation of Malaysia was formed in 1963.
In September 1970, one year after the outbreak of riots between the Chinese and the Malays following an election in which the Chinese had made gains, Abdul Rahman relinquished his post as prime minister and was succeeded by Abdul Razak.
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c93c48130d753cc6ae86a13c96a9054f | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tupac-Amaru-II | Túpac Amaru II | Túpac Amaru II
Túpac Amaru II, original name José Gabriel Condorcanqui, (born 1740–42?, Peru—died May 18, 1781, Cuzco, Peru), Peruvian Indian revolutionary, a descendant of the last Inca ruler, Túpac Amaru, with whom he was identified when he led the Peruvian peasants in an unsuccessful rebellion against Spanish rule.
Túpac Amaru II was a cacique (hereditary chief) in the Tinta region of southern Peru. He received a formal Jesuit education but maintained his identification with the Indian population. In 1780 he arrested and executed the corregidor (provincial administrator), Antonio Arriaga, on charges of cruelty. This act led to the last general Indian rebellion against Spain, at first with the support of some Creoles (Spaniards born in America). The revolt, which spread throughout southern Peru and into Bolivia and Argentina, lost this support, however, when it became a violent battle between Indians and Europeans. Túpac Amaru II and his family were captured in March 1781 and taken to Cuzco. After being forced to witness the execution of his wife and sons, he was mutilated, drawn and quartered, and beheaded. The revolution continued until the Spanish government issued a general pardon of the insurgents.
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7cbdfb37c22cbc2eb22f029a56c2504f | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Turhan-Sultan | Turhan Sultan | Turhan Sultan
… naturally passed to Mehmed’s mother, Turhan Sultan, but Kösem remained her superior with the new title büyük valide (“grandmother”). A rivalry ensued between the two, as Turhan began to form her own faction within the palace and among the military. Kösem conspired to unseat Turhan Sultan by deposing Mehmed and…
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8ef593aae0fc33e882d365534c588eb5 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Twiggy-British-fashion-model | Twiggy | Twiggy
Twiggy, original name Lesley Hornby, married name Dame Lesley Lawson, (born September 19, 1949, Neasden, London, England), British fashion model and actress whose gamine frame and mod look defined the fashion industry during much of the late 20th century. She is widely considered to have been one of the world’s first supermodels—a top fashion model who appears simultaneously on the covers of the world’s leading fashion magazines and is globally recognized by first name only.
Twiggy’s father was employed as a carpenter, and her mother was a factory worker. Twiggy attended a high school for girls and in 1965, at age 15, while working as an assistant in a London hair salon, she met hairdresser Nigel Davies (later known as Justin de Villeneuve), who called her “Twigs” because of her thin frame. The following year, he spearheaded her physical transformation—pairing a short boyish bob with big darkly lined eyes and false eyelashes. Twiggy’s adolescent physique was ideal for the rising hemlines and unisex patterns that were then in vogue, and her overall look distinguished her from the curvaceous, glamorous top models of the era. After spotting her photograph on a salon wall, a fashion journalist for the Daily Express newspaper interviewed her and published an article featuring her—christened Twiggy—as “The Face of ’66,” and she was subsequently voted British Woman of the Year. Twiggy began modeling extensively, quickly gaining international recognition, and her appearance on the cover of the U.S. edition of the leading fashion magazine Vogue (April 1967) heralded her rise to fame. Twiggy was soon considered iconic of the decade, and her name was marketed as a brand in connection with a string of products including a Twiggy doll.
Twiggy parlayed her celebrity into a singing career, releasing an award-winning debut single, “Beautiful Dreams,” in 1967. Formally retiring from modeling in 1970 to pursue a film career, she was featured in the romantic musical The Boy Friend (1971), for which she won two Golden Globe awards. In 1975 she published a best-selling autobiography, Twiggy, and was featured in her own television variety show of the same name. Two years later she married American actor Michael Whitney (died 1983). Twiggy was nominated for a Tony Award for her role in the Broadway musical My One and Only (1983–84). In 1988 she married British actor and director Leigh Lawson. Twiggy hosted television shows, including Twiggy’s People (1998), into the early 21st century and served as a judge on the reality-television show America’s Next Top Model (2005–07), hosted by fellow former fashion model Tyra Banks.
Twiggy was featured in the New York Metropolitan Museum of Art exhibition “The Model as Muse: Embodying Fashion” (2009), which showcased the models who had epitomized fashion during the 20th century, and in the National Portrait Gallery’s “Twiggy: A Life in Photographs” (2009–10). She also launched several signature product lines, including clothing, skin care, and bedding, and appeared in advertising campaigns for some of the world’s top brands, including Olay cosmetic products.
In 2019 Twiggy was made a Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire (DBE).
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27fc73daed7bd7151fa41c3a47d2fa13 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Tyrannius-Rufinus | Tyrannius Rufinus | Tyrannius Rufinus
Tyrannius Rufinus, (born c. 345, Concordia, near Aquileia, Italy—died 410/411, Sicily, possibly at Messina), Roman priest, writer, theologian, and translator of Greek theological works into Latin at a time when knowledge of Greek was declining in the West.
After study at Rome, where he met Jerome (later a saint and one of the doctors of the Western Church), Rufinus entered a monastery at Aquileia. Jerome often visited the monastery, and the two became close friends.
About 373 Rufinus began to study the writings of Origen (q.v.), one of the Greek doctors of the church. In the early 390s Rufinus and Jerome became involved in a controversy over Origen’s teachings, by this time suspected by orthodox theologians of injecting heretical elements into theology. In 393 both men were charged with Origenist leanings, but Rufinus refused to make formal abjuration of the alleged errors, while Jerome readily did so. The discord between the men continued during the next year, abated by 397, and then flared soon afterward into a bitter quarrel when Rufinus published in Rome a translation of Origen’s De principiis (“On First Principles”) and wrote a preface representing Jerome to be an admirer of Origen. Thereafter, Rufinus was subjected to merciless abuse from Jerome. Rufinus’ orthodoxy was questioned, and he was obliged to write an Apologia to Pope Anastasius, who had summoned him to Rome.
For the remainder of his life Rufinus devoted himself to literary pursuits, translating numerous biblical commentaries and homilies by Origen, an Apologia for Origen by the learned teacher and martyr Pamphilus, sermons by Saints Basil and Gregory of Nazianzus, and the history of the early church by the scholar Eusebius; none of these works survive in complete texts. Whenever he suspected that works that he was in the process of translating had been altered by unorthodox theologians, Rufinus did not hesitate to shorten or paraphrase the original text. His own writings include a commentary on the Apostles’ Creed that exemplified contemporary catechetical instruction and provided the earliest continuous Latin text of the creed.
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4360404c17f348104687d880338b67ba | https://www.britannica.com/biography/U-Pon-Nya | U Pon Nya | U Pon Nya
U Pon Nya created a freer form of dramatic verse, and his Water Seller is noted for its comparatively realistic treatment of court life.
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a2f87a3e84c6b5a0b01f9aeb3709ff70 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Uda-emperor-of-Japan | Uda | Uda
Uda, in full Uda Tennō, personal name Sadami, (born June 10, 867, Kyōto, Japan—died Sept. 3, 931, Kyōto), 59th emperor of Japan, from 887 to 897.
The son of the emperor Kōkō, Uda was one of the few rulers during this period whose mother was not a member of the Fujiwara family, which, partly through intermarriage with the imperial line, dominated Japan from 859 to 1160. During the first part of Uda’s reign, Mototsune, the head of the Fujiwara house, occupied the post of kampaku, or chief councillor, through which he could issue commands on behalf of the emperor. After Mototsune’s death in 891, Uda kept the post vacant, selecting his advisers from members of minor Japanese noble families.
In 897 Uda abdicated in favour of his eldest son, who became the emperor Daigo, although Uda continued to exercise power as the retired emperor (in no chō). In 899 Uda succeeded in getting his favourite, the renowned scholar Sugawara Michizane, appointed to the important post of minister of the right (udaijin). But he was forced to concede the more important post of minister of the left (sadaijin) to Fujiwara Tokihira, the head of the Fujiwara house. In 901 Tokihira forced his rival into exile, where Sugawara is said to have died of a broken heart. Fujiwara clansmen then surged back into powerful positions, from which they were able to dominate the government for three centuries.
Together, Uda and Fujiwara Tokihira introduced a series of measures designed to prevent the further avoidance of taxes by large rural landholders. Although their effort was largely unsuccessful, in 927 it did result in the Engi shiki (“Procedures of the Engi Era”), a compilation of the existing administrative regulations of the period, which now is of great historical interest.
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a5d75d7f8971d004e8db16c98ea89283 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ueshiba-Morihei | Ueshiba Morihei | Ueshiba Morihei
…of the Japanese martial-arts expert Ueshiba Morihei. There are no offensive moves in aikido. As taught by Ueshiba, it was so purely defensive an art that no direct contest between practitioners was possible. Later a student of Ueshiba, Tomiki Kenji, developed a competition style (known as Tomiki aikido) that incorporated…
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c2fd38c7359d0bdfeee89960971285c3 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ulamburiash | Ulamburiash | Ulamburiash
It may have been Ulamburiash who finally annexed this area around 1450 and began negotiations with Egypt in Syria. Karaindash built a temple with bas-relief tile ornaments in Uruk (Erech) around 1420. A new capital west of Baghdad, Dūr Kurigalzu, competing with Babylon, was founded and named after Kurigalzu…
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d3583c63452e56cae945a2e8281a95b5 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ulisse-Aldrovandi | Ulisse Aldrovandi | Ulisse Aldrovandi
Ulisse Aldrovandi, (born Sept. 11, 1522, Bologna, Bologna—died May 4, 1605, Bologna), Renaissance naturalist and physician noted for his systematic and accurate observations of animals, plants, and minerals.
After studying mathematics, Latin, law, and philosophy, Aldrovandi went to Padua in about 1545 to continue his studies. There he began to study medicine, the field in which he eventually earned a degree in 1553. On his return to Bologna in 1549 he was arrested, charged with heresy, and sent to Rome, where he was able to exonerate himself, probably in part because of his noble parentage. Returning to the University of Bologna, he was made a full professor in 1561 as a result of the great interest in his lectures, in which he presented natural history as a systematic study. He founded a botanical garden at Bologna and was named curator. His appointment as inspector of drugs and pharmacies met opposition, but Pope Gregory XIII confirmed the appointment. The official pharmacopoeia that Aldrovandi wrote, Antidotarii Bononiensis Epitome (1574), describing the constituents and properties of drugs, became a model for such works.
Pope Gregory XIII gave Aldrovandi financial assistance in publishing his numerous works on natural history, which included detailed observations of the day-to-day changes occurring in the incubation of the chicken embryo. Only four volumes, with detailed copperplate engravings, appeared during his lifetime; the remainder were prepared by his students from only a portion of his manuscripts. He also wrote Le antichità della città di Roma (1556), an account of various statues in Rome. His museum of biological specimens, classified according to his own system and left to the city of Bologna at his death, contributed to the later development of animal taxonomy.
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e191f41c4b0ab6fa0c8ad1d0fd6ae3b8 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ulrich-von-Wilamowitz-Moellendorff | Ulrich von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff | Ulrich von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff
Ulrich von Wilamowitz-Moellendorff, in full Emmo Friedrich Richard Ulrich Von Wilamowitz-moellendorff, (born Dec. 22, 1848, Markowitz, Prussia [Germany]—died Sept. 25, 1931, Berlin, Ger.), German classical scholar and teacher whose studies advanced knowledge in the historical sciences of metrics, epigraphy, papyrology, topography, and textual criticism.
Educated at the universities of Bonn and Berlin, Wilamowitz-Moellendorff served in the Franco-German War (1870) and traveled through Italy and Greece. He taught successively at the universities of Berlin, Greifswald, and Göttingen before accepting the chair of Greek studies at Berlin in 1897.
Among Wilamowitz-Moellendorff’s many books were studies and texts of the Greek tragedians, Homer and the Iliad, Hesiod, Pindar, Plato, and Aristotle. His Griechisches Lesebuch (1902; “Greek Reader”), which became a standard text, was influential in its emphasis on Hellenistic and later Greek writers, including the Church Fathers, as well as classical authors. In 1902 he became editorial director of the Inscriptiones Graecae. He also was editor of the series Philologische Untersuchungen (1880–1925; “Philological Investigations”). His last book was Der Glaube der Hellenen (1931–32; “The Religious Belief of the Greeks”).
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fd5f1b7e6fcb83685090a55344ba672c | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umar-II | ʿUmar II | ʿUmar II
ʿUmar II, in full ʿUmar ibn ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz, (born 682/683, Medina, Arabia [now in Saudi Arabia]—died February 720, near Aleppo, Syria), pious and respected caliph who attempted to preserve the integrity of the Muslim Umayyad caliphate (661–750) by emphasizing religion and a return to the original principles of the Islamic faith.
His father, ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz, was a governor of Egypt, and through his mother he was a descendant of ʿUmar I (second caliph, 634–644). He received a traditional education in Medina and won fame for his piety and learning. In February or March 706, ʿUmar was appointed governor of the Hejaz. During his tenure of office, he initiated policies that later characterized his reign, particularly his creation of a consultative body of pious men to aid him in his rule.
ʿUmar was elevated to the caliphate by the will of his predecessor, the caliph Sulaymān, in September or October 717. At his accession the stability of the Umayyad caliphate was threatened by the discontent of the Mawālī (non-Arab Muslims) and the “pious opposition,” who resented the Umayyads allegedly for putting political interests ahead of established religious principles. ʿUmar, who was mainly interested in home affairs, attempted no major military conquests, and soon after his accession he lifted his predecessor’s disastrous siege of Constantinople (now Istanbul). Initiating a policy of internal consolidation, he dismissed unpopular governors, reformed the taxation system, and granted the Mawālī the same fiscal rights as Arab Muslims.
Although many of his policies seemed untenable, ʿUmar attempted to arrest the disintegration of the Umayyad caliphate by appealing to a broad segment of the Muslim population. He, alone of the Umayyads, was respected by the later ʿAbbāsid dynasty and was highly regarded even among the Shīʿites, schismatic followers of Muhammad’s son-in-law ʿAlī.
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9c1004dc9738e3c59cfe42c2a6bec840 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umar-Tal | ʿUmar Tal | ʿUmar Tal
ʿUmar Tal, in full al-Ḥājj (“the Pilgrim”) ʿUmar ibn Saʿīd Tal, also spelled el-Hadj Omar ibn Saʿīd Tal, (born c. 1797, Halvar, Fouta-Toro [now in Senegal]—died Feb. 12, 1864, near Hamdalahi, Tukulor empire [now in Mali]), West African Tukulor leader who, after launching a jihad (holy war) in 1854, established a Muslim realm, the Tukulor empire, between the upper Senegal and Niger rivers (in what is now upper Guinea, eastern Senegal, and western and central Mali). The empire survived until the 1890s under his son, Aḥmadu Seku.
ʿUmar Tal was born in the upper valley of the Sénégal River, in the land of the Tukulor people. His father was an educated Muslim who instructed students in the Qurʾān, and ʿUmar, a mystic, perfected his studies in Arabic and the Qurʾān with Moorish scholars who initiated him into the Tijānī brotherhood.
At the age of 23, ʿUmar set out on the pilgrimage to Mecca. He was already well known for his piety and erudition and was received with honour in the countries through which he traveled. Muhammad Bello, emir of Sokoto in Nigeria, offered him his daughter Maryam in marriage. Enriched by this princely alliance, ʿUmar had become an important personage when he reached Mecca about 1827. He visited the tomb of the Prophet in Medina, returned to Mecca, and then settled for a while in Cairo. On a visit to Jerusalem he succeeded in curing a son of Ibrahim Pasha, the viceroy of Egypt. In Mecca, finally, he was designated caliph for black Africa by the head of the Tijānī brotherhood.
Armed with his prestige as a scholar, mystic, and miracle worker, ʿUmar returned to the interior of Africa in 1833. Trained for political leadership by his father-in-law, Muhammad Bello, the emir of Sokoto, with whom he again spent several years, and his position strengthened by the title of caliph, ʿUmar now decided to obey the voice of God and to convert the pagan Africans to Islām. By now he not only was looked upon as a miracle worker but also had acquired a bodyguard of followers and of devoted Hausa slaves.
Upon the death of Bello, he departed for his native country, hoping to conquer the Fouta region with the assistance of the French, in exchange for a trade treaty, an agreement the French declined because of ʿUmar’s growing strength. ʿUmar realized that faith without force would be ineffective and made careful preparations for his task. In northeastern Guinea, where he first established himself, he wrote down his teachings in a book called Kitāb rimāḥ ḥizb ar-raḥīm (“Book of the Spears of the Party of God”). Deriving his inspiration from Ṣūfism—a mystic Islāmic doctrine—he defined the Tijānī “way” as the best one for saving one’s soul and for approaching God. He recommended meditation, self-denial, and blind obedience to the sheikh. He gained many followers in Guinea, but, when in 1845 he went to preach in his own country, he met with little success.
Having built up an army, ʿUmar decided to use force. In March 1854 he issued an order for a jihad to sweep away the pagans and bring back the Muslims who had strayed from the fold. Starting out with about 10,000 men who lived off the land, he spread terror in order to force the pagan chieftains to submit. In 1855 he defeated the Bambara pagans of Mali, adding to his empire. He forcibly converted them, yet these conversions proved to be ineffectual. To defend his authority ʿUmar had 300 hostages executed, but revolt broke out again as soon as his armies were removed.
After an unsuccessful attack on a French fort that had refused to supply him weapons, ʿUmar again set off toward the east, but he had great difficulty subsisting in a land already ravaged. His men deserted, and his companions began to doubt his mission.
Having been unable to decisively conquer his adversaries, ʿUmar was to spend the next 10 years trying to contain his empire. Repressing new revolts, he was led eastward by the resistance he stirred up. In 1860 he signed a treaty with the French general Louis Faidherbe, governor of Senegal, accepting the Sénégal River as a common boundary.
ʿUmar perennially had to defend his conquests and foil hostile coalitions without giving up the principle of the jihad. This proved difficult, however, when he was confronted by the Fulani people of the Masina, who were Muslims, followers of the Qādirī brotherhood. When ʿUmar attacked the Fulani, he no longer represented the “wrath of God”—he was a conqueror; his mission turned into a fratricidal war. Both armies prayed to the same God before the battle. ʿUmar, recognizing the danger to his divine mission, proposed a duel with Aḥmadu III, the leader of the Fulani army. But the latter refused the judgment of God. ʿUmar won the battle, and Aḥmadu was captured and beheaded.
In 1863 ʿUmar took possession of the city of Timbuktu, but, defeated by the nomadic Tuaregs, he had to beat a retreat. In a subsequent battle, attacked by the Tuaregs, the Moors, and the Fulani, his army was destroyed. He withdrew to the city of Hamdalahi, where he was besieged. He escaped and took refuge in a cave but was killed when the cave was blown up with gunpowder.
Al-Ḥājj ʿUmar Tal’s empire lasted 50 years, from 1848 to 1897, when it was annexed by the French. Few of the Mali people still remember it, except the descendants of the Tijānī initiates or the Fulani and Bambaras, who suffered the conqueror’s cruelties. In order to enhance his own position, General Faidherbe described ʿUmar in his reports as the symbol of resistance to French penetration, at the same time recognizing his virtues and his courage. In fact, ʿUmar was not anxious to oppose the French. He had sought their neutrality and had hoped to buy arms from them, but they had other sources and feared his power. The mosque of Dinguiraye in Guinea is all that remains of ʿUmar’s empire.
ʿUmar Tal lived, fought, and died more like a 7th-century warrior than a 19th-century political leader. He was a mystic, and his life resembled those of the early followers of the Prophet Muḥammad, who fought in the name of God and converted by fire and the sword. Senegalese poets, singing of ʿUmar’s life, have compared it with the Prophet’s. Some have glorified him and lauded his victories, citing the thousands he killed and the thousands he sold into slavery as proof of the divine character of his mission; others to this day hate him for having shed Muslim blood.
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4386e73eab1c9bdabcc9c762970832e8 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umberto-Agnelli | Umberto Agnelli | Umberto Agnelli
Umberto Agnelli, (born November 1, 1934, Lausanne, Switzerland—died May 27, 2004, Turin, Italy), Italian automotive executive and grandson of Giovanni Agnelli, the founder of Fiat SpA. He served as the company’s chairman from 2003 to 2004.
After graduating from the University of Turin with a law degree in 1959, Agnelli joined the family’s automotive enterprise, Fiat. He assumed the presidency of Fiat France in 1965 and in five years doubled sales in that country. When he was made president of Fiat International, he increased Fiat sales and made the car the most popular in western Europe and doubled its sales in the United States. These successes pulled Umberto out of the shadow of his brother Giovanni, 13 years his senior and the president of the parent firm.
After becoming Fiat’s managing director, Agnelli instituted progressive reforms for company workers. He offered flextime, which allowed workers to choose their own hours within limits. He became vice-chairman of Fiat SpA in 1976 and president of Fiat Auto in 1980, resigning his post as managing director of the parent company. From 1976 to 1979 he also served as a senator in Italy. Following Giovanni’s death in 2003, Agnelli became chairman of Fiat SpA. At the time, the company was in sharp decline, and Agnelli oversaw a number of measures that improved its financial situation.
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cc1d04284f490620220da23ace3ed913 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umberto-II | Umberto II | Umberto II
Umberto II, (born Sept. 15, 1904, Racconigi, Italy—died March 18, 1983, Geneva, Switz.), prince of Savoy and briefly king of Italy in 1946 until he was forced to abdicate after a republican form of government was approved in a general referendum.
The son of King Victor Emmanuel III, Umberto graduated from the Royal Military Academy in Turin. He became a general in 1931 and commanded an armoured division in World War II. On Mussolini’s recommendation he was made marshal in October 1942. After the Allies took Rome, his father appointed him lieutenant general of the realm (June 2, 1944) and abdicated in his favour on May 9, 1946. Although Umberto campaigned to rally the monarchist forces, the Italian people voted for a republic. On June 14 Umberto and his male heirs were permanently banished from Italy. He took residence at Cascais, Port., under the title Count of Sarre.
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0a7cdb142fd14d093a7fe01e3825a6d3 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umberto-Nobile | Umberto Nobile | Umberto Nobile
Umberto Nobile, (born January 21, 1885, Lauro, near Salerno, Italy—died July 30, 1978, Rome), Italian aeronautical engineer and pioneer in Arctic aviation who in 1926, with the Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen and Lincoln Ellsworth of the United States flew over the North Pole in the dirigible Norge, from Spitsbergen (now Svalbard), north of Norway, to Alaska.
As a general in the Italian air force and a professor of aeronautical engineering at the University of Naples in 1928, Nobile began a new series of flights over unexplored Arctic regions with a craft similar to the Norge. In May 1928, on the third flight, the airship crashed on the ice north-northeast of Spitsbergen. Though Nobile and 7 companions were rescued, 17 lives were lost. (While attempting to find Nobile and his men, Amundsen disappeared, and it is believed that his aircraft crashed.) When an Italian inquiry found Nobile responsible for the disaster, he resigned his commission. In 1931 he took part in a Soviet voyage to the Arctic. After World War II the report blaming him for the 1928 crash was discredited, and he was reinstated in the air force. He resumed teaching at Naples and was a deputy in the Italian Constituent Assembly (1946). Nobile’s own account of his Arctic adventures is given in Gli italiani al Polo Nord (1959; My Polar Flights).
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25e5888982702d1d3d49356ba6ab86e9 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umberto-Saba | Umberto Saba | Umberto Saba
Umberto Saba, original surname Poli, (born March 9, 1883, Trieste, Austria-Hungary [now in Italy]—died Aug. 25, 1957, Gorizia, Italy), Italian poet noted for his simple, lyrical autobiographical poems.
Saba was raised by his Jewish mother in the ghetto of Trieste after his Christian father deserted them when Saba was an infant. From age 17 Saba developed his interest in poetry while working as a clerk and a cabin boy and serving as a soldier in World War I. He established his reputation as a poet with the publication of Il canzoniere (1921; “The Songbook”), which was revised and enlarged in 1945, 1948, and 1961. Storia e cronistoria del canzoniere (1948; “History and Chronicle of the Songbook”), published at the time of the second revision, is a work of self-criticism that reveals the author’s desire for fame.
Saba’s formative poetry, written in the first two decades of the century, was influenced by Petrarch, Gabriele D’Annunzio, Giacomo Leopardi, and Giosuè Carducci. The notable poems from his early period include “A mia moglie” (“To My Wife”), “La Capra” (“The Goat”), and “Trieste.” In the middle phase of his career, throughout the 1920s, he wrote in a Freudian vein on such topics as desire and childhood memories. The poetry of his final phase was largely reflective, characterized by the poems “Avevo” (“Ashes”), “Felicità” (“Happiness”), and “Ulisse” (“Ulysses”).
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4df06a6dfda6ebe62027b1358dd3d2f6 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Umehara-Ryuzaburo | Umehara Ryūzaburō | Umehara Ryūzaburō
Umehara Ryūzaburō, (born March 9, 1888, Kyōto, Japan—died Jan. 16, 1986, Tokyo), Western-style Japanese painter whose vibrant colours, dynamic brushstrokes, and liberated spirit had a strong impact on young Japanese painters.
Umehara first studied painting under Asai Chū at the Kansai Art School. From 1908 to 1913 he toured Europe. In 1909 he was in France, where he studied in Paris at the Académie Julian and met Pierre-Auguste Renoir and became his devoted pupil. He founded several artist groups in Tokyo, including the Nikakai in 1914 and the Shuń yōkai in 1922. From 1944 to 1952 he was a professor at Tokyo University.
Among his famous works are “Woman Wearing a Bonnet” (1908), “Necklace” (1913), “Landscape of Naples” (1912), “Seated Nude” (1921), and the landscapes “Kirishima” (1937), “Sakura Island” (1937), and “Mount Asama” (1950). He was given the Order of Cultural Merit in 1952 and the Asahi Culture Prize in 1956.
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72bdf45a22b1b9f86e048286dd5a6cf8 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Uno-Sosuke | Uno Sōsuke | Uno Sōsuke
Uno Sōsuke, (born Aug. 27, 1922, Shiga prefecture, Japan—died May 19, 1998, Moriyama), politician who served as prime minister of Japan for 68 days (June 2–Aug. 9, 1989).
The son of a wealthy brewer, Uno attended the Kōbe University of Commerce, served in the army in World War II, and was first elected to the House of Representatives in 1960. He served in various ministerial posts before the Liberal-Democratic Party chose him to be prime minister. He was chosen largely by default, he being one of the few politicians without links to the influence-peddling and bribery scandals that brought down the ministry of his predecessor, Takeshita Noboru. Ironically, Uno was soon compelled to resign as a result of media reports that he had had an extramarital affair and by the Liberal-Democrats’ severe losses in the parliamentary elections of July 1989. He continued to serve in various government posts until he retired from politics in 1996.
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7218a9234a1dc06fc85537552a944035 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Upton-Sinclair | Upton Sinclair | Upton Sinclair
Upton Sinclair, in full Upton Beall Sinclair, (born September 20, 1878, Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.—died November 25, 1968, Bound Brook, New Jersey), prolific American novelist and polemicist for socialism, health, temperance, free speech, and worker rights, among other causes. His classic muckraking novel The Jungle (1906) is a landmark among naturalistic proletarian work, one praised by fellow socialist Jack London as “the Uncle Tom’s Cabin of wage slavery.”
Sinclair’s parents were poor but his grandparents wealthy, and he long attributed his exposure to the two extremes as the cause of his socialist beliefs. He graduated from the College of the City of New York in 1897 and did graduate work at Columbia University, supporting himself by writing jokes for newspapers and cartoonists and adventure stories for pulp magazines. His first four books—King Midas (1901, first published the same year as Springtime and Harvest), Prince Hagen (1903), The Journal of Arthur Stirling (1903), and a Civil War novel Manassas (1904)—were well received by the critics but did not sell well.
His public stature changed dramatically in 1905, after the socialist weekly Appeal to Reason sent Sinclair undercover to investigate conditions in the Chicago stockyards. The result of his seven-week investigation was The Jungle, first published in serial form by Appeal to Reason in 1905 and then as a book in 1906. Though intended to create sympathy for the exploited and poorly treated immigrant workers in the meatpacking industry, the novel instead aroused widespread public indignation at the low quality of and impurities in processed meats and thus helped bring about the passage of federal food-inspection laws. As Sinclair commented at the time, “I aimed at the public’s heart and by accident I hit it in the stomach.”
The Jungle became a best seller, and Sinclair used the proceeds to open Helicon Hall, a cooperative-living venture in Englewood, New Jersey. This experiment was inspired by a model developed by feminist Charlotte Perkins Gilman. The building was destroyed by fire (possible arson, because of his socialist views) in 1907, whereupon the project was abandoned.
Sinclair and his second wife, Mary Craig Kimbrough, moved to Pasadena, California, in 1916. His muckraking novels continued with King Coal (1917), which is about the poor working conditions in the mining industry. With The Brass Check (1919), Sinclair tackled the financial interests and supposed "free press" principles of major newspapers and the "yellow journalism" they often engaged in to attract readers. His novel Oil! (1927) was based on the Teapot Dome Scandal (it loosely served as the basis of the Academy Award-winning film There Will Be Blood [2007]), and Boston (1928) was inspired by the Sacco-Vanzetti case. His searing novel The Wet Parade (1931; film 1932) is about the tragedy of alcoholism, and The Flivver King (1937) tells the story of Henry Ford and how “scientific management” replaced skilled workers in the automotive industry.
During the economic crisis of the 1930s, Sinclair organized the EPIC (End Poverty in California) socialist reform movement and registered as a Democrat. His 1934 bid for the governorship of California—he ran on the EPIC platform, which featured proposals for state-administered economic relief and reforms throughout a number of societal institutions—was his most successful political campaign. (He had run for the U.S. House of Representatives in 1906 and 1920, for the U.S. Senate in 1922, and for the governorship of California in 1926 and 1930, each time running as a Socialist, and each time he lost.) The campaign was surprisingly popular, helping to build and push to the left the Democratic Party in California and to inspire U.S. Pres. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal programs, but once again he lost. He was defeated by a joint propaganda campaign, orchestrated by the conservative political and business establishment, newspaper moguls, and Hollywood studio bosses, who brazenly portrayed him as an American communist. Using admen, media consultants, and assorted "dirty tricks," the anti-Sinclair battle has been called one of the most well-orchestrated smear campaigns in American history; bogus interviews were staged and run as legitimate newsreels in movie theatres, a forerunner of “fake news” and the attack ads on television decades later. Sinclair recounted the campaign in I, Candidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked (1935) and said about his experience in politics, “The American People will take Socialism, but they won’t take the label. I certainly proved it in the case of EPIC. Running on the Socialist ticket I got 60,000 votes, and running on the slogan to ‘End Poverty in California’ I got 879,000.”
Inspired by a tour of the northern California redwoods in 1936, Sinclair wrote a children’s story called The Gnomobile. It was one of the first books for children with an environmentalist message, and it was later adapted as a film by Walt Disney in 1967. Sinclair again reached a wide audience with his Lanny Budd series, 11 contemporary historical novels, beginning with World’s End (1940), that were constructed around an antifascist hero who witnesses all the events surrounding World War II. For Dragon’s Teeth (1942), the third novel in the series, about the Nazi takeover of Germany in the 1930s, Sinclair won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction in 1943.
Of his autobiographical writings, American Outpost: A Book of Reminiscences (1932; also published as Candid Reminiscences: My First Thirty Years) was reworked and extended in The Autobiography of Upton Sinclair (1962). My Lifetime in Letters (1960) is a collection of letters written to Sinclair.
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71eac8db79013c6135013e45f2e2b8d0 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Urbano-Rattazzi | Urbano Rattazzi | Urbano Rattazzi
Urbano Rattazzi, (born June 20, 1808, Alessandria, Kingdom of Italy—died June 5, 1873, Frosinone, Italy), Piedmontese lawyer and statesman who held many important cabinet positions in the early years of the Italian Republic, including that of prime minister; his ambiguous policies brought him into conflict with the Italian hero Giuseppe Garibaldi and ultimately caused his downfall.
In 1848 Rattazzi was elected deputy to the Sardinian Parliament. For the next decade he held various ministerial positions and became associated with the brilliant premier Count Cavour. Violently anticlerical and considered devoid of principle, Rattazzi nevertheless became premier after Cavour’s death. At this time Garibaldi offered to capture Rome, then occupied by the French. Rattazzi at first sanctioned this venture and then changed his mind and sent troops to intercept Garibaldi, who was wounded in the ensuing Battle of Aspromonte (1862). Public opinion condemning this action forced Rattazzi’s resignation.
In 1867 Rattazzi was again asked to be premier, and again Garibaldi marched on Rome, with Rattazzi’s tacit consent. Rattazzi once more changed his mind, and he ordered Garibaldi arrested. Faced with the choice of arresting Garibaldi’s volunteers or invading Rome himself, Rattazzi resigned.
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b93d429932bdce0642b368d8225667c2 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Urho-Kaleva-Kekkonen | Urho Kaleva Kekkonen | Urho Kaleva Kekkonen
Urho Kaleva Kekkonen, (born Sept. 3, 1900, Pielavesi, Fin.—died Aug. 31, 1986, Helsinki), Finnish prime minister (1950–53, 1954–56) and president (1956–81), noted for his Soviet-oriented neutrality.
A northern lumberman’s son, Kekkonen studied at the University of Helsinki, receiving bachelor’s and doctoral degrees in civil law in 1928 and 1936, respectively. While working as an attorney, he became increasingly involved, from the 1920s, in the agrarian movement and was a civil servant in the Ministry of Agriculture (1927–32). He was a member of Parliament (1936–56) as a representative of the Agrarian Party (later renamed the Centre Party). Originally, he took a hard line against the Soviet Union and, in 1940, was one of only two members of Parliament to vote against ceding any Finnish territory to the U.S.S.R. By 1943, however, recognizing that Germany would lose the war, he concluded that Finland must adopt a policy of friendly neutrality toward the Soviet Union if it wanted to retain its independence.
Holding various ministerial and legislative posts, Kekkonen became prime minister in 1950, during the presidency of Juho Kusti Paasikivi, and he secured the presidency upon Paasikivi’s death in 1956. Their careful, but friendly foreign policy toward the Soviet Union came to be called the Paasikivi-Kekkonen line. Kekkonen continued to be reelected to the presidency (1962, 1968, 1978). In 1973 parliament extended his third six-year term in office an extra four years. He resigned in 1981 because of failing health.
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cd5d029f99aaeac6dd268ffca56a622d | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Utagawa-Toyokuni | Utagawa Toyokuni | Utagawa Toyokuni
Utagawa Toyokuni, original name Kurahashi Kumakichi, later Kumauemon, also called Toyokuni, (born 1769, Edo [now Tokyo]—died Feb. 24, 1825, Edo), Japanese artist of the ukiyo-e (“pictures of the floating world”) movement who developed the style of his master, Utagawa Toyoharu, making it one of the most popular of its day.
Toyokuni specialized in prints of actors but was also known for his portraits of women. His “Yakusha butai-no-sugatae” (“Portraits of Actors in Their Various Roles”), a series of large nishiki-e, or polychrome prints, created between 1794 and 1796, marked the peak of his creative work. His drawing for wood-block prints was characterized by the use of powerful and vivid lines that achieved an effect of exaggeration reminiscent of the style of his contemporary Sharaku. Toyokuni’s later style degenerated frequently into sheer grotesquerie.
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f99a0ebb159788d316fd0fff499d9714 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Utamaro | Utamaro | Utamaro
Utamaro, in full Kitagawa Utamaro, original name Kitagawa Nebsuyoshi, (born 1753, Japan—died Oct. 31, 1806, Edo, Japan—d.), Japanese printmaker and painter who was one of the greatest artists of the ukiyo-e (“pictures of the floating world”) movement; he is known especially for his masterfully composed portraits of sensuous female beauties.
Probably born in a provincial town, he went to Edo (now Tokyo) with his mother. There, under the name of Toyoaki, he started painting and designing rather unoriginal wood-block prints of women. He also occupied himself with nature studies and published many illustrated books, of which Gahon chūsen (1788; “Insects”) is best known.
In about 1791 Utamaro gave up designing prints for books and concentrated on making half-length single portraits of women rather than prints of women in groups as favoured by other ukiyo-e artists. In 1804, at the height of his success, he made some prints depicting the military ruler Toyotomi Hideyoshi’s wife and concubines. Consequently, he was accused of insulting Hideyoshi’s dignity and was ordered to be handcuffed for 50 days. The experience crushed him emotionally and ended his career as an artist. Among his best known works are the wood-block-print series “Fu ninsōgaku jittai” (“Ten Physiognomies of Women”), “Seirō jūni-toki” (“Twelve Hours at the Gay Quarters”), “Seirō nanakomachi” (“The Seven Beauties of the Gay Quarters”), and “Kasen koi no fu” (“Women in Love”).
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87d7de45c95fd004a324f2d5ba8c9643 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Uwe-Johnson | Uwe Johnson | Uwe Johnson
Uwe Johnson, (born July 20, 1934, Cammin, Germany [now Kamień Pomorski, Poland]—found dead March 12, 1984, Sheerness, Kent, England), German author noted for his experimental style. Many of his novels explore the contradictions of life in a Germany divided after World War II.
Johnson grew up during the difficult war years. In East Germany he studied German at the Universities of Rostock and Leipzig, graduating from the latter in 1956. That same year he attempted to publish his first novel, Ingrid Babendererde: Reifeprüfung 1953 (published posthumously in 1985; “Ingrid Babendererde: School-Leaving Exam 1953”), but it was refused by several East German publishers when he declined to alter it to suit their ideology. He eventually found a West German publisher for his second novel, Mutmassungen über Jakob (1959; Speculations About Jakob). Its modernist narrative and its frank engagement with the problems faced daily by German citizens brought Johnson critical acclaim. Aware that his work would not be published in East Germany as long as he wrote what he wished to write and unable—because of his political record—to find a job there, he moved to West Berlin shortly after publishing the novel. This move was an event he distinctly did not consider “escape.”
Once in the West, Johnson became a member of Gruppe 47, a writers’ association. He continued to experiment with narrative and examine the meaning of a divided land with the publication of Das dritte Buch über Achim (1961; The Third Book About Achim); Karsch, und andere Prosa (1964; "Karsch, and Other Prose"), a collection of shorter fiction that included the novella Eine Reise wegwohin (An Absence); and Zwei Ansichten (1965; Two Views). In each of these works, Johnson’s narrative abruptly shifts from one consciousness or setting to another; words assume different meanings when used by different characters; and objects and events are described with intricate exactness, as if to emphasize their constancy against the mutability of emotions, memory, and human expression.
From 1966 to 1968, Johnson lived in New York. There he began his masterwork, the tetralogy Jahrestage: aus dem Leben von Gesine Cresspahl (1970–73, 1983; Anniversaries: From the Life of Gesine Cresspahl). In it he used a montage technique, combining newspaper clippings, notes, and diary entries—as well as the presence of a writer named Uwe Johnson—to examine the issues that continued to engage him. He published the first three volumes upon his return to West Berlin. In 1974 Johnson moved to England, ostensibly to complete his tetralogy. There he underwent a personal crisis, and, though he continued to publish other work, he suffered from writer’s block; the last volume of Jahrestage was not finished until the year before his death.
Johnson’s later works included a reflection on the poet Ingeborg Bachmann, Eine Reise nach Klagenfurt (1974; A Trip to Klagenfurt: In the Footsteps of Ingeborg Bachmann), published after her death; Berliner Sachen (1975; “Berlin Matters”), a volume of previously published essays, including two in English; and Begleitumstände: Frankfurter Vorlesungen (1980; “Circumstances: Frankfurt Lectures”), a collection of autobiographical lectures he gave to reestablish the poetics chair at the University of Frankfurt. Living an isolated life in England and, by many accounts, drinking heavily, Johnson died at home on or about February 23, 1984, but his body was not discovered until some three weeks later.
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2191a1e1215d535f234b7a68337204e2 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/V-Gene-Robinson | V. Gene Robinson | V. Gene Robinson
V. Gene Robinson, (born May 29, 1947, Lexington, Kentucky), ninth Episcopal bishop of New Hampshire (2004–13) and the first openly gay bishop in the Anglican Communion.
Robinson was born into poverty, the son of Kentucky tobacco sharecroppers. Because his parents had been expecting a girl, they decided to name the child Vicky Gene; as an adult, Robinson would use only the first initial of his first name. Because of severe complications during childbirth, he suffered temporary paralysis and almost died as a baby. Raised in the Disciples of Christ denomination, he joined the Episcopal Church in the United States of America (ECUSA) while attending the University of the South in Sewanee, Tennessee, from which he graduated in 1969. Robinson received a Master of Divinity degree from the General Theological Seminary of New York in 1973 and was ordained in the same year. In 1975 he moved to New Hampshire, where he and his wife, Isabella Martin, opened both a retreat centre and a camp and horse farm for girls. In 1987 Robinson openly declared his homosexuality, and he and Martin amicably divorced. Robinson subsequently began a domestic partnership with Mark Andrew, a civil servant; the two were legally joined in a civil union in New Hampshire in 2008.
Even before his election as bishop, Robinson had been an active clergyman in the ECUSA, promoting clergy wellness (programs to encourage the physical and mental health of priests and their families) and gaining particular recognition for his work in counseling clergy and reconciling parishes in conflict. He also promoted education—both within and outside the church—about AIDS, civil rights, and tolerance, especially for gays and lesbians. Robinson served as Youth Ministries Coordinator for the seven Episcopal dioceses in the Episcopal Province of New England from 1978 to 1985 and acted as executive secretary for the province from 1983 to 2003. He was elected to the episcopacy on June 7, 2003, and consecrated bishop on November 2. He became bishop of New Hampshire the following March.
Robinson’s election to the episcopacy became the focus of heated controversy not only within the ECUSA but also within the larger Anglican Communion—the body of national churches representing traditional Anglicanism worldwide. After being profiled in the documentary film For the Bible Tells Me So (2007), Robinson published a memoir containing his reflections on the controversy over his ordination, In the Eye of the Storm: Swept to the Center by God, in 2008. In 2009 he led the invocation at ceremonies preceding the inauguration of U.S. Pres. Barack Obama. Robinson was influential in the 2009 decisions by the ECUSA General Convention to affirm the right of gays and lesbians to be ordained and to explore liturgical options for performing same-sex marriages.
In 2010, however, Robinson announced that he would retire in 2013, citing the controversy over his election as bishop and the resulting strain on both him and the diocese. In the book God Believes in Love: Straight Talk About Gay Marriage (2012), he drew upon theology, social science, and personal experience to make an argument for same-sex marriage.
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3a73d3f9bad05610c5f9f76f468368ed | https://www.britannica.com/biography/V-P-Singh | V.P. Singh | V.P. Singh
V.P. Singh, in full Vishwanath Pratap Singh, (born June 25, 1931, Allahabad, India—died November 27, 2008, New Delhi), politician and government official who was prime minister of India in 1989–90.
Singh studied at Allahabad and Pune (Poona) universities and became a member of the legislative assembly of his home state of Uttar Pradesh in 1969 as a member of the Indian National Congress (Congress Party). He won election to the Lok Sabha (lower chamber of the Indian parliament) in 1971 and was appointed a deputy minister of commerce by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1974. He was minister of commerce in 1976–77, and, when Indira Gandhi returned to power in 1980, he served as chief minister (head of government) of Uttar Pradesh until 1982 and resumed his post as commerce minister in 1983.
Upon the death of Indira Gandhi in 1984, her son and successor as prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, appointed Singh minister of finance. In that post Singh’s efforts to reduce governmental regulation of business and to prosecute tax fraud attracted widespread praise. Singh was transferred to the post of minister of defense in January 1987, but he resigned from Gandhi’s cabinet later that year, after his investigations of arms-procurement fraud were squelched. Soon afterward Singh resigned from the government altogether and left Gandhi’s Congress (I) Party.
Singh was the principal founder in 1988 of the Janata Dal (JD), a merger of three small centrist opposition parties. Using the JD as the cornerstone, he soon began assembling a larger nationwide opposition coalition called the National Front (NF), which contested the general parliamentary elections of November 1989. After that election, Singh, as the NF leader, was able to form a coalition government in alliance with two other major opposition parties. He was sworn in as India’s prime minister on December 2, 1989. After state legislative elections in March 1990, Singh’s governing coalition achieved control of both houses of India’s parliament. The coalition was soon riven by disputes having to do with religious and caste issues, however, and Singh resigned on November 7, 1990, after receiving a vote of no confidence in the Lok Sabha.
Singh was later one of the forces behind the broad United Front coalition that governed the country in 1996–97 with the JD’s H.D. Deve Gowda as prime minister.
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654cf6b9d8bb829977cc30f0273b6626 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/V-S-Abakumov | V. S. Abakumov | V. S. Abakumov
Abakumov, minister of state security (1947–51), had been responsible for making up the cases against Zhdanov and his followers and for convincing Stalin of the authenticity of the accusations. In July 1957, Khrushchev further identified Malenkov as “one of the chief organizers” of the purge.…
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3fb85adaa7915b1fb7e4dfc1cc4e6e09 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vaino-Linna | Väinö Linna | Väinö Linna
…narrative style was retained by Väinö Linna, whose novel Tuntemation sotilas (1954; The Unknown Soldier), a depiction of the War of Continuation, initially caused an uproar, only to become one of the most widely read novels in Finland. Its characters were for decades widely known by name in Finland, because…
Väinö Linna, a leading postwar writer, became known for his war novel Tuntematon soltilas (1954; The Unknown Soldier) and for the trilogy Täällä Pohjantähden alla (1959–62; Under the North Star). Other novelists have written in shorter forms, but the broad epic has remained popular, particularly…
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492effe377d50da89ae12071477e45c1 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Val-Logsdon-Fitch | Val Logsdon Fitch | Val Logsdon Fitch
Val Logsdon Fitch, (born March 10, 1923, Merriman, Nebraska, U.S.—died February 5, 2015, Princeton, New Jersey), American particle physicist who was corecipient, with James Watson Cronin, of the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1980 for experiments conducted in 1964 that disproved the long-held theory that particle interaction should be indifferent to the direction of time.
Fitch’s early interest in chemistry shifted to physics in the mid-1940s when, as a member of the U.S. Army, he was sent to Los Alamos, New Mexico, to work on the Manhattan Project. He graduated from McGill University in Montreal with a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering in 1948 and was awarded a Ph.D. in physics by Columbia University in 1954. That year he joined the faculty of Princeton University, and he later served (1976–81) as chair of its physics department; in 1987 he was named the James S. McDonnell Distinguished University Professor of Physics.
In experiments conducted at the Brookhaven National Laboratory in 1964, Fitch and Cronin showed that the decay of subatomic particles called K mesons could violate the general conservation law for weak interactions known as CP symmetry. Those experiments in turn necessitated physicists’ abandonment of the long-held principle of time-reversal invariance. The work done by Fitch and Cronin implied that reversing the direction of time would not precisely reverse the course of certain reactions of subatomic particles. Fitch served on various government bodies, including the President’s Science Advisory Committee (1970–73) and the National Science Foundation (1980–83), and in 1993 he was awarded the National Medal of Science. (See also CP violation.)
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3529b6ce95276c17951177cb710bac23 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valdes | Valdes | Valdes
Valdes, also called Peter Waldo, (died c. 1205), medieval French religious leader. A successful merchant, Valdes underwent a religious conversion, gave away his wealth, and began to preach a doctrine of voluntary poverty in Lyon about 1170. In 1179 his vow of poverty was confirmed by Pope Alexander III, but he was subsequently forbidden to preach by Pope Lucius III. In 1182 or 1183 Valdes and his followers—called the Poor, or the Poor of Lyon—were excommunicated for violating the ban on preaching and were banished from the city. They were formally condemned at a church council in 1184 along with other alleged heretics, including the Cathari, against whom Valdes had earlier preached. The severe persecution of the so-called Waldenses in the 13th century forced them to begin traveling and teaching in secret. During the Protestant Reformation, the Waldenses accepted Genevan forms of worship and church organization.
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4691b3d34d5b0b92544fc25f12f27167 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valdis-Dombrovskis | Valdis Dombrovskis | Valdis Dombrovskis
…forged by former opposition leader Valdis Dombrovskis, and a series of economic reforms were pushed through the Saeima. With the Latvian economy showing signs of modest recovery, the Dombrovskis government survived a parliamentary general election in October 2010. A snap election in September 2011 resulted in the pro-Russia Harmony Centre…
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24b4b4be152af339aec20de9df2f5526 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valentinian-I | Valentinian I | Valentinian I
Valentinian I, Latin in full Flavius Valentinianus, (born 321, Cibalae, Pannonia—died November 17, 375, Brigetio, Pannonia Inferior), Roman emperor from 364 to 375 who skillfully and successfully defended the frontiers of the Western Empire against Germanic invasions.
Valentinian, who was the son of an army officer stationed in Pannonia (in central Europe), joined the army and served with his father in Africa. According to some sources, when Valentinian was a tribune in the forces of Julian the Apostate (emperor 361–363), he was disgraced for refusal to renounce Christianity. He did serve, however, in Julian’s Persian expedition of 363, and was promoted by Julian’s successor, Jovian, who died soon afterward (February 17, 364).
Nine days later the commanders of the army proclaimed Valentinian emperor at Nicaea (modern İznik, Turkey). On March 28 he appointed his younger brother, Valens, as coruler and assigned him to govern the East, while Valentinian retained the West. Both agreed to allow religious toleration, which, unlike Valens, Valentinian maintained throughout his reign.
Displaying inexhaustible energy, Valentinian set about fortifying and defending the borders. In January 365 his generals in Gaul were defeated by the Germanic Alemanni; by October Valentinian had set up residence in Paris, from which he directed operations against the invaders. His general Jovinus defeated them three times. At Durocatalaunum (modern Châlons-sur-Marne, France), in the third engagement, Jovinus inflicted heavy casualties on the Alemanni, securing Gaul for years to come. Meanwhile, in 367, the emperor moved to Ambiani (modern Amiens, France) to be in closer communication with his general Theodosius (father of the later emperor Theodosius I), who was defending Britain from Saxon, Pictish, and Scottish invaders.
In order to strengthen the line of succession, Valentinian on August 24, 367, proclaimed his eight-year-old son, Gratian, as coemperor. Two months later Valentinian took up residence at Trier (now in Germany). He remained there for seven years, devoting his attention to the construction of an elaborate system of fortifications on the Rhine. Then, an invasion of Pannonia by the Quadi in 375 brought Valentinian to Sirmium (modern Sremska Mitrovica, Yugoslavia). He died of a stroke suffered during a tirade denouncing the invasions.
Despite his achievements, Valentinian was portrayed by the great pagan historian Ammianus Marcellinus as far beneath Julian in being angry, cowardly, and superstitious. Jerome portrays him as tolerant, brave, and responsible. He was a good administrator and is noteworthy for having persecuted neither pagans nor Arians.
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1f5412dd682e1402491edd45ec53f703 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valentinus | Valentinus | Valentinus
Valentinus, (flourished 2nd century ad), Egyptian religious philosopher, founder of Roman and Alexandrian schools of Gnosticism, a system of religious dualism (belief in rival deities of good and evil) with a doctrine of salvation by gnōsis, or esoteric knowledge. Valentinian communities, founded by his disciples, provided the major challenge to 2nd- and 3rd-century Christian theology.
Valentinus studied philosophy at Alexandria. His disciples claimed that he had been educated by Theodas, a purported pupil of St. Paul, and was baptized a Christian. According to documentary fragments of 2nd- and 3rd-century theologians Valentinus moved to Rome c. 136, during the time of Pope St. Hyginus (c. 136–140), and exercised influence there for some 25 years, expounding his synthesis of Christian and oriental Gnostic teaching. Aspiring to be bishop of Rome, he left the Christian community when he was passed over for that office c. 140.
On abandoning Rome for Cyprus c. 160, and possibly Alexandria, Valentinus continued to develop his system of mythically derived religious philosophy. He is the reputed author of the Gospel of Truth, which achieved a fusion of Christian Pauline theology with Gnostic principles. A 4th-century Egyptian papyrus, the Jung Codex (discovered in 1946), containing Coptic translations of Valentinian texts, has helped in the difficult reconstruction of Valentinus’ doctrine, which had survived only in short excerpts of his letters and commentaries quoted or paraphrased by his orthodox theological adversaries.
The Valentinian system developed into Eastern and Western forms in greater complexity, although the earlier structure was similar to Pauline mystical theology, with its emphasis on the instrumentality of Christ’s death and resurrection in effecting Christian deliverance. Current scholarship tends to increase the importance of Valentinian doctrine in influencing the later rise of anthropocentric modes of Christian spirituality, leaving traces in every era of the church down to the present, with the emergence of a Western prototype, Pelagianism, after the 5th-century monk from Britain, Pelagius.
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58498111853c066b82aca5053ab1d43a | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valeria-Dienes | Valéria Dienes | Valéria Dienes
Valéria Dienes, Hungarian form Dienes Valéria, née Valéria Geiger, (born May 25, 1879, Szekszárd, Hung.—died June 8, 1978, Budapest), dancer, teacher, and choreographer, considered the most important exponent of the Hungarian tradition in movement art.
In 1905 she received a Ph.D. in philosophy, mathematics, and aesthetics, and not long afterward she married the mathematician Pál Dienes. Her interests soon turned to music and psychology. In 1908 she traveled to Paris, where she attended classes given by Henri Bergson, participated in Raymond Duncan’s experimental course on Greek culture and lifestyle, and saw the most influential modern dancer of the age, Isadora Duncan, Raymond’s sister. Returning to Hungary in 1912, she began teaching a course in Greek movement, and in 1915 she founded a school to disseminate her own system of movement and gesture, which she called orkesztika (“orchestics”). To develop this system, she examined human movement according to what she saw as its four disciplines of orchestics: the interrelationship of space (plastics, or kinetics), time (rhythmics), strength (dynamics), and meaning (mimetics, later symbolics). Between 1965 and 1974 she elaborated on these four themes in three extensive studies: A relatív kinetika alapvonalai (“The Fundamentals of Relative Kinetics”), A mozdulatritmika alapvonalai (“The Fundamentals of Movement Rhythmics”), and A szimbolika fő problémái (“The Main Problems of Symbolics”).
After preparing a proposal for the reform of women’s sports for the leaders of the Hungarian Soviet Republic (1919), she was forced into exile in 1920. She returned in 1923 and resumed teaching; in 1929 she started her four-year course for teachers. Already the founder and joint president of the Movement Culture Association (1928), she also founded the Orchestic Society.
The focus of her choreographic works began as “poems in dance” based on the verse of modern Hungarian poets Endre Ady and Mihály Babits; later, from 1925 to 1942, her choreography was inspired by abstractions and included Nyolc boldogság (“Eight Joys”), Hajnalvárás (“Waiting for Sunrise”), Szent Imre misztériuma (“The Mystery of Saint Emeric”), and A gyermek útja (“The Child’s Progress”). Dienes’s biography Fehér királylány (1930; “White Princess”) was made into a poem in dance and a film. In 1934 Dienes was awarded the Baumgarten Prize, then the highest literary award in Hungary, for her philosophical work.
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4aae55b6b52f0804fcf907bd8e6bb2c5 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valeriano-Weyler-y-Nicolau-marques-de-Tenerife | Valeriano Weyler y Nicolau, marquis de Tenerife | Valeriano Weyler y Nicolau, marquis de Tenerife
Valeriano Weyler y Nicolau, marquis de Tenerife, (born Sept. 17, 1838, Palma, Majorca—died Oct. 20, 1930, Madrid), Spanish general who, as captain general of Cuba shortly before the outbreak of the Spanish–American War (1898), used stern antirebel measures that were exploited by U.S. newspapers to inflame public opinion against Spanish rule of Cuba.
Weyler entered the military early in life. He fought against the Cuban rebels (1868–72) and then returned to Spain to serve against the Carlists, Bourbon traditionalists. He was captain general of the Canary Islands (1878–83), of the Balearic Islands (1883), and of the Philippines (1888), where he helped suppress native uprisings. Eight years later he was sent to Cuba, also to quell insurgency. His harsh and energetic policies raised a storm of American protest, which helped lead to his recall in October 1897.
Weyler then held a variety of governmental posts and in 1921–23 was army commander in chief. In 1926 he took part in an abortive plot against the Primo de Rivera regime. At his death, his reputation as a severe and unyielding military man was undiminished.
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b5a0a4e3befdde61348f71b2a8a74b92 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valerie-Hobson | Valerie Hobson | Valerie Hobson
…pursues Estella (now played by Valerie Hobson), despite her claims that she is not interested in him. Eventually, Pip encounters Abel Magwitch (Finlay Currie), an escaped convict to whom Pip as a child had once provided comfort. After Magwitch, who has become wealthy overseas, confesses that he is Pip’s benefactor,…
Assorted Referenceshistory of Ealing Studios
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fdfb7cb468836553653e9b5ccc764675 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valerius-Maximus | Valerius Maximus | Valerius Maximus
Valerius Maximus, (flourished ad 30), Roman historian and moralist who wrote an important book of historical anecdotes for the use of rhetoricians.
Born into a poor family, Valerius Maximus owed everything to Sextus Pompeius (consul ad 14 and proconsul of Asia), his friend and patron, whom he accompanied to the East about ad 24/25. His book, Factorum et dictorum memorabilium libri ix (c. ad 31; “Nine Books of Memorable Deeds and Sayings”), was intended for use in the schools of rhetoric and written to exemplify human virtues and vices. The book’s anecdotes, drawn chiefly from Roman history, include extracts from the annals of other peoples, principally the Greeks. The arrangement is loose and irregular and the style turgid, artificial, and showy, but Valerius sometimes managed an effective and well-placed pointed expression, an ingenious transition, or a clever piece of fancy. Despite its contradictions and errors, his collection proved very popular, especially in the Middle Ages.
Valerius’ sources are not easily determined. He made considerable use of Cicero and Livy, and he also used Pompeius Trogus, Varro, and some Greek writers. Valerius was a champion of the empire and of the emperor Tiberius, to whom the work is dedicated, and he voiced the general feeling that the Romans of his day were inferior to their ancestors but greatly superior to the rest of the world.
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63588ce47460136a4865b9916557bac3 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valery-Brumel | Valery Brumel | Valery Brumel
Valery Brumel, in full Valery Nikolayevich Brumel, (born May 14, 1942, Razvedki, Russia, U.S.S.R.—died January 26, 2003, Moscow, Russia), Soviet athlete who held the world record in the high jump from 1961 to 1971.
Brumel was educated at the Central Institute of Physical Culture (Moscow), graduating in 1967; he was made an honoured master of sport of the Soviet Union in 1961 and became a member of the Communist Party in 1964. He set his first world record in 1961 with a jump of 2.23 metres (7 feet 4 inches). In 1960, in his first world-class appearance, he won the silver medal at the Olympic Games in Rome, beating the American John Thomas, who held the world record. Later jumps breaking his own record culminated in one of 2.28 metres. He also won the gold medal at the 1964 Olympic Games in Tokyo. In 1965 his right leg was broken in three places in a motorcycle accident. After more than 25 operations, he resumed training in 1969, and in 1973 he jumped 2.05 metres during an indoor meet at Moscow.
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12fbe0e6b0435f16e302d43dbf8dc331 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valery-Gergiev | Valery Gergiev | Valery Gergiev
Valery Gergiev, (born May 2, 1953, Moscow, Russia, U.S.S.R.), Russian conductor, known for his charismatic stage presence and passionate performances, who became artistic and general director of the Mariinsky Theatre (previously called Kirov Theatre) in St. Petersburg in 1996.
Gergiev was the son of Ossetian parents and spent much of his youth in the Caucasus. He studied conducting with Ilya Musin at the Leningrad Conservatory and at age 23 won the Herbert von Karajan Conductors’ Competition in Berlin. He made his debut with the Kirov Theatre in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) in 1978, leading a production of Sergey Prokofiev’s War and Peace as assistant to Yury Temirkanov, the company’s principal conductor. From 1981 to 1985 he was the principal conductor of the Armenian State Orchestra, and during that period he led performances by many of the major orchestras of the Soviet Union.
Upon being made music director of the Kirov in 1988, Gergiev began to establish a reputation for intensely personal performances. In 1991 he made his European opera debut conducting Modest Mussorgsky’s Boris Godunov with the Bavarian State Opera, and he made his first opera appearance in the United States, leading the San Francisco Opera’s production of War and Peace, in the same year. From there the honours and international acclaim mounted. In 1993 he was named Conductor of the Year at the Classical Music Awards in London. He was also invited to perform as a guest conductor with many of the world’s leading orchestras, including the London Symphony Orchestra, Amsterdam’s Royal Concertgebouw Orchestra, and the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra, among others.
In 1991 the Kirov Theatre, along with its resident opera and ballet companies, reverted to its imperial name, Mariinsky. In 1996 Gergiev became artistic and general director of the Mariinsky Theatre, and during his tenure he strengthened and solidified its position as one of the world’s premiere opera houses.
Gergiev was known for keeping a demanding work schedule. Over the years he founded the St. Petersburg White Nights Festival (1993) and the Mikkeli International Music Festival in Finland (1994), and from 1996 he led the Rotterdam Festival and Israel’s Red Sea International Music Festival. When Gergiev and the Mariinsky Opera appeared at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C., in February 2002, it marked the opening of a 10-year collaboration that he had engineered between the two institutions.
Gergiev’s activities and honours continued apace in the early 21st century. At Moscow’s Golden Mask Festival in 2002, he was named Best Conductor for his version of Richard Wagner’s Die Walküre, and the Mariinsky won three of five awards in the event’s opera categories. Gergiev also released a number of recordings featuring works by composers from Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union. During this time he also oversaw the construction of new concert halls for the Mariinsky, and in 2009 the theatre launched its own record label.
In addition to his work with the Mariinsky, Gergiev was also involved with other orchestras, notably serving as principal conductor of the Rotterdam Philharmonic Orchestra (1995–2008) and the London Symphony Orchestra (2007–15). In 2015 he became conductor of the Munich Philharmonic Orchestra.
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aa132d7a3896e9b8e2243d9e594d6ec5 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valery-Lyukin | Valery Lyukin | Valery Lyukin
Her Kazakh-born father and coach, Valery Lyukin, won four medals for the Soviet Union at the 1988 Olympic Games and two more at the 1991 world championships, and in 1987 he became the first gymnast to complete a triple back somersault on the floor exercise. Her mother, Anna Kochneva, also…
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c868247d06bb2f8146b9a63f3eda45bd | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valery-Nicolas-Larbaud | Valery-Nicolas Larbaud | Valery-Nicolas Larbaud
Valery-Nicolas Larbaud, (born Aug. 29, 1881, Vichy, Fr.—died Feb. 2, 1957, Vichy), French novelist and critic, an erudite cosmopolitan who became a literary intermediary between France and Europe, especially England and Spanish-speaking countries.
Larbaud’s personal fortune permitted him a life of travel and leisure. His novels and stories are largely based on personal experiences: Fermina Marquez (1911), a novel of adolescence, deals with the effects of the visit of a beautiful South American girl to a boys’ school; A.O. Barnabooth (1913; Eng. trans., 1924) is the journal and verse of a South American millionaire—Larbaud’s alter ego—a cultivated, sensuous adventurer, whose haunts are international sleeping cars and luxury hotels. Enfantines (1918) is a collection of nostalgic childhood reminiscences, and Amants, heureux amants (1923), dealing with men and women in love, uses the interior-monologue technique developed by the Irish novelist James Joyce. Larbaud’s other works comprise essays and reflections inspired by his travels, such as Jaune, bleu, blanc (1927; “Yellow, Blue, White”) and Aux couleurs de Rome (1938). His translations include works of the 17th-century English miscellaneous prose writer Sir Thomas Browne, the 19th-century English novelist Samuel Butler, the U.S. poet Walt Whitman, and James Joyce. He also wrote two volumes of criticism of English and French literature, Ce Vice impuni, la lecture (1925) and Ce Vice impuni, domaine français (1941). In 1952 Larbaud received the Grand Prix National des Lettres.
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9376defe55b6a489a1a9caeb6a1a916e | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Valery-Vasilevich-Lobanovsky | Valery Vasilevich Lobanovsky | Valery Vasilevich Lobanovsky
…player on that 1961 team, Valery Lobanovsky, would become the club’s most famous manager during two stints leading the team (1973–90, 1996–2001). Kiev’s home stadium was renamed for Lobanovsky in 2002. Under his tutelage, Kiev won the European Cup Winners’ Cup in 1975 and became the first club from the…
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cf4c3252299ddd78a4fc3086b34b04fc | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vallabha | Vallabha | Vallabha
Vallabha, also called Vallabhacharya, (born 1479?, Chaudanagar, near Raipur [now in Chhattisgarh state], India—died 1531, Benares [now Varanasi]), Hindu philosopher and founder of the important Vallabhacharya (or Vallabha Sampradaya) devotional sect, also known as the Pushtimarg (from Sanskrit pushtimarga, “way of flourishing”).
Born to a Telegu Brahman family, Vallabha showed precocity in spiritual and intellectual matters from an early age. He initiated his first disciple in 1493 at Mathura, which became the centre of his activities, though he undertook several pilgrimages throughout India, propagating his doctrine of bhakti (devotion) to the god Krishna. It was near Mathura, at the foot of Mount Govardhana, that Vallabha discovered the central devotional object of the sect, an image of Krishna called Shri-Nathaji.
Vallabhacharya (acarya, “teacher”) himself belonged to the Rudra sect established by Vishnusvamin, and his philosophical system of pure nondualism (shuddhadvaita)—i.e., the identity of God and the universe—closely follows that of the Vishnusvamin tradition. God is worshipped not by fasting and physical austerities but by love of him and of the universe. Salvation arises only by virtue of the grace of God. In order to receive divine love, the devotee must surrender himself wholly (samarpana) to God’s gift of love.
Vallabha was married and had two sons, though he became a sannyasi (ascetic) shortly before his death. His son Vitthala succeeded him as head of the Vallabhacharya sect.
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697d53650a25aaee24d9f97c2cd8d13a | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Van-Heflin | Van Heflin | Van Heflin
Joe Starrett (played by Van Heflin) is a hardworking farmer who lives with his wife, Marian (Jean Arthur), and their young son, Joey (Brandon deWilde), on a homestead in Wyoming. Starrett and his fellow homesteaders are being terrorized by Rufus Ryker (Emile Meyer), a cattle baron who resents the…
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09de00927c2ab05e3e0d552413f82d65 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Van-Johnson | Van Johnson | Van Johnson
Pidgeon, Ginger Rogers, and Van Johnson, and audiences flocked to see the musical. Somewhat better was The Secret Heart (1946), an unusual drama with a gothic flair, which featured June Allyson, Pidgeon, and Claudette Colbert. Cynthia (1947), from a Viña Delmar play, was little more than an excuse for…
…in particular Captain Lawson (Van Johnson), who survives the mission but loses a leg to amputation as a result of the injuries sustained in his crash landing.
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0f78a18be4d513ffe094e5b4a24c1c8e | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Varela-Francisco | Varela, Francisco | Varela, Francisco
…Chilean biologists Humberto Maturana and Francisco Varela and emphasizes the peculiar closure of living systems, which are alive and maintain themselves metabolically whether they succeed in reproduction or not. Unlike machines, whose governing functions are embedded by human designers, organisms are self-governing. The autopoietic definition of life resembles the physiological…
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18dc04fa4544d52f785f6a6ddae2ae83 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vasco-Nunez-de-Balboa | Vasco Núñez de Balboa | Vasco Núñez de Balboa
Vasco Núñez de Balboa, (born 1475, Jerez de los Caballeros, or Badajoz, Extremadura province, Castile—died January 12, 1519, Acla, near Darién, Panama), Spanish conquistador and explorer, who was head of the first stable settlement on the South American continent (1511) and who was the first European to sight the eastern shore of the Pacific Ocean (on September 25 [or 27], 1513, from “a peak in Darién”).
Balboa came from the ranks of that lower nobility whose sons—“men of good family who were not reared behind the plow,” in the words of the chronicler Gonzalo Fernández de Oviedo y Valdés—often sought their fortunes in the Indies. In 1500 he sailed with Rodrigo de Bastidas on a voyage of exploration along the coast of present-day Colombia. Later he settled in Hispaniola (Haiti), but he did not prosper as a pioneer farmer and had to escape his creditors by embarking as a stowaway on an expedition organized by Martín Fernández de Enciso (1510) to bring aid and reinforcements to a colony founded by Alonso de Ojeda on the coast of Urabá, in modern Colombia. The expedition found the survivors of the colony, led by Francisco Pizarro, but Ojeda had departed. On the advice of Balboa the settlers moved across the Gulf of Urabá to Darién, on the less hostile coast of the Isthmus of Panama, where they founded the town of Santa María de la Antigua, the first stable settlement on the continent, and began to acquire gold by barter or war with the local Indians. The colonists soon deposed Enciso, Ojeda’s second in command, and elected a town council; one of its two alcaldes, or magistrates, was Balboa. With the subsequent departure of Enciso for Hispaniola, Balboa became the undisputed head of the colony. In December 1511 King Ferdinand II sent orders that named Balboa interim governor and captain general of Darién.
Balboa meanwhile had organized a series of gold- and slave-hunting expeditions into the Indian chiefdoms of the area. His Indian policy combined the use of barter, every kind of force, including torture, to extract information, and the tactic of divide and conquer by forming alliances with certain tribes against others. The Indians of Darién, less warlike than their neighbours of Urabá and without poisoned arrows, were not formidable foes and often fled at the approach of the Spaniards. The Spanish arsenal included their terrible war dogs, sometimes used by Balboa as executioners to tear Indian victims to pieces.
The Spaniards were told by Indians that to the south lay a sea and a province infinitely rich in gold—a reference to the Pacific and perhaps to the Inca empire. The conquest of that land, their informants declared, would require 1,000 men. Balboa hastened to send emissaries to Spain to request reinforcements; the news they brought created much excitement, and a large expedition was promptly organized. But Balboa was not given command. Charges brought against him by his enemies had turned King Ferdinand against him, and, as commander of the armada and governor of Darién, the king sent out the elderly, powerful nobleman Pedro Arias Dávila (usually called Pedrarias). The expedition, numbering 2,000 persons, left Spain in April 1514.
Meanwhile, Balboa, without waiting for reinforcements, had sailed on September 1, 1513, from Santa María for Acla, at the narrowest part of the isthmus. Accompanied by 190 Spaniards and hundreds of Indian porters, he marched south across the isthmus through dense jungles, rivers, and swamps and ascended the cordillera; on September 25 (or 27), 1513, standing “silent, upon a peak in Darién,” he sighted the Pacific. Some days later he reached the shore of the Gulf of San Miguel and took possession of the Mar del Sur (South Sea) and the adjacent lands for the king of Castile. Storms prevented a crossing to the Pearl Islands, and, turning inland, Balboa penetrated almost to the site of present-day Panama City before returning across the isthmus to Santa María in January 1514. His letters and those of a royal agent who had been sent to Darién to prepare the ground for the coming of Pedrarias, announcing the discovery of the “South Sea,” restored Balboa to royal favour; he was named adelantado (governor) of the Mar del Sur and of the provinces of Panamá and Coiba but remained subject to the authority of Pedrarias, who arrived in Darién, now a crown colony and renamed Castilla del Oro, in June 1514.
Relations between the two men were, from the first, troubled by the distrust and jealousy of the ailing, ill-natured Pedrarias toward the younger man. The first bishop of Darién, Juan de Quevedo, sought to act as peacemaker and arranged a temporary reconciliation; in a turnabout Pedrarias by proxy betrothed his daughter María in Spain to Balboa. But the underlying causes of friction remained. The suspicious Pedrarias pursued a tortuous policy designed to frustrate Balboa at every turn, but he at last gave Balboa grudging permission to explore the South Sea. By dint of enormous efforts Balboa had a fleet of ships built and transported in pieces across the mountains to the Pacific shore, where he explored the Gulf of San Miguel (1517–18). Meantime, the stream of charges of misconduct and incapacity levelled against Pedrarias by Balboa and others had finally convinced the crown of Pedrarias’s unfitness to govern; news arrived in Darién of his imminent replacement by a new governor who would subject Pedrarias to a residencia (judicial review of his conduct in office). Pedrarias doubtless feared that Balboa’s presence and testimony would contribute to his total ruin and decided to get rid of his rival. Summoned home on the pretext that Pedrarias wished to discuss matters of common concern, Balboa was seized and charged with rebellion, high treason, and mistreatment of Indians, among other misdeeds. After a farcical trial presided over by Gaspar de Espinosa, Pedrarias’s chief justice, Balboa was found guilty, condemned to death, and beheaded with four alleged accomplices in January 1519.
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217142dfbccfc53255b0bd6abceeb975 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vasil-Bykov | Vasil Bykov | Vasil Bykov
…revival with the novels of Vasil Bykau and Uladzimir Karatkievich. Among later 20th-century writers, the poets Yawhyeniya Yanishchyts and Ales Razanov and the short-story writer Anatol Sys should be noted. Other well-known writers of the late 20th and early 21st centuries are Svetlana Alexievich, whose Voices from Chernobyl was translated…
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6c81a7971c0d62dc08fb8abece9e073f | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vasile-Alecsandri | Vasile Alecsandri | Vasile Alecsandri
Vasile Alecsandri, (born June 14, 1821, Bacău, Moldavia [now in Romania]—died Aug. 22, 1890, Mirceşti, Rom.), lyric poet and dramatist, the first collector of Romanian popular songs to emphasize their aesthetic values and a leader of the movement for the union of the Romanian principalities.
Alecsandri was educated at Iaşi and subsequently in Paris (1834–39). In the 1840s he was engaged in the Romanian revolutionary cause, and, as a participant in the movement to modernize Romanian culture, he was active in the National Theatre in Iaşi and was the editor of literary and cultural journals. He published his first collection of folk songs in 1844.
His collection of lyrical poems, Doine şi lăcrimioare, appeared in Paris in 1853, and in 1868–75 he published his descriptive poems of landscapes, entitled Pasteluri. As a playwright he created Romanian social comedy, but his most important contributions to the theatre were his poetic dramas: Despot Vodă (1879), Fântâna Blanduziei (1883; “Blanduzia’s Fountain”), and Ovidiu (1885; “Ovid”).
In later life Alecsandri played an important part in his country’s affairs. As minister for foreign affairs (1859–60), he went to London and Paris as Prince Alexandru Cuza’s special envoy to seek recognition of the United Romanian Principalities. In 1885 he was appointed Romanian minister in Paris.
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f479ef72b6d9cb58330b9f328888190c | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vasily-Ivanovich-Surikov | Vasily Ivanovich Surikov | Vasily Ivanovich Surikov
Vasily Ivanovich Surikov, (born Jan. 12 [Jan. 24, New Style], 1848, Krasnoyarsk, central Siberia, Russia—died March 3 [March 19], 1916, Moscow, Russia), Russian historical painter, one of the few members of the Peredvizhniki (“Wanderers”) whose work has withstood the test of time.
Surikov, who was of Cossack descent, was born in Siberia in a community that had retained much of its traditional way of life (dating from the pre-Petrine times of Yermak’s conquest of Siberia in the 16th century), including public executions in town squares. So isolated was his community from the rest of Russia that there was no nearby rail link. Having made up his mind to study art, Surikov had to travel to the Academy of Arts in St. Petersburg with a caravan transporting frozen fish to the capital. As a result of his birth and upbringing, his contemporaries described him as “a 17th-century man who happened to turn up in the 19th century.” The historical authenticity of the subject matter in Surikov’s main trilogy (The Morning of the Execution of the Streltsy, 1881; Menshikov at Beryozovo, 1883; and The Boyarynya Morozova, 1887) stems from actual childhood impressions.
And yet in his painting, Surikov was less than precise with the historical facts. For example, he was well aware that the streltsy were not executed in Moscow’s Red Square (as depicted in his painting) but rather in the village of Preobrazhenskoye. He also knew the actual configuration of the boyarynya (noblewoman) Feodosiya Morozova’s fetters—and yet he portrayed them as having an unusually long chain, to suggest a free spirit transcending her captivity. Metaphor permeates his paintings: in Menshikov at Beryozovo, the figure of the disgraced and exiled Aleksandr Menshikov is out of proportion in relation to the space he inhabits. He would not be able to stand up straight in his peasant hut. Further, the candle and candlestick in the centre of the painting obliquely suggest a cross. Surikov, who viewed history as deeply tragic, knew well the difference between the actual event and its emotional or empirical reality. Distortions of perspective in his paintings are meant to make the space of history separate from the space of the viewer’s present. In this way the sledge with the boyarynya rides—in the visual sense—into a dead end, and the actual movement becomes an emblem elevating the heroine above worldly passions and transporting her into history and eternity. The figure of the boyarynya is a black spot against the background of light patterns of the onlookers’ clothing (the painting shows the influence of both French Impressionism and the 16th-century Venetian school), and the observers in the painting view her with compassion as a martyr. Similarly, in The Morning of the Execution of the Streltsy, Surikov does not depict the actual events (the execution itself, for instance) but shows a frozen moment in the objective flow of historical time in which no one is innocent or guilty and in which the death of some is inescapable.
The trilogy of paintings described above, portraying Russia at the end of the pre-Petrine era, was Surikov’s best work. Particularly in The Boyarynya Morozova he reached the pinnacle of his art, almost completely absorbing his subject into pure colour. It is not by chance that the impulses for these historical panels were purely painterly: the image of a black raven on the snow served as the initial motivation behind The Boyarynya Morozova, and the reflection of a candle in the twilight of early morning moved him to produce The Morning of the Execution of the Streltsy. In his later work the balance between the idea and the pictorial impulse lessened. In his “apologist” compositions of the second half of the 1890s—such as Yermak’s Conquest of Siberia (1895) and Suvorov Crossing the Alps (1899)—the triumphant patriotism of the subjects no longer corresponds to the dynamism of colour.
Russian historical painting reached its culmination with Surikov’s trilogy. Artists of the following generation—for instance, the painters of the modernist Jack of Diamonds group—saw Surikov as their forerunner.
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1077107aa5acd60108620dc16bfdb0d5 | https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vasily-Maykov | Vasily Maykov | Vasily Maykov
But Vasily Maykov and Ippolit Bogdanovich wrote amusing mock epics. Maykov’s Elisey; ili, razdrazhenny Vakkh (1769; “Elisei; or, Bacchus Enraged”) cleverly parodies a Russian translation of the Aeneid with a narrative in which the Greek pantheon directs whores, drunks, and other low-lifes. In Dushenka: drevnyaya povest…
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60927ee4395c1fc8313aa8c0588339c1 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/markweatherford/2020/07/29/cios-tackling-ransomware-attacks-after-garmin/ | The Steps CIOs Must Take To Deal With Ransomware Attacks Like The One That Hit Garmin | The Steps CIOs Must Take To Deal With Ransomware Attacks Like The One That Hit Garmin
Garmin products on display at a trade fair in 2014. Getty Images
It’s rare these days for a week to go by without hearing about another big ransomware event that has either disabled a company or cost an organization millions of dollars in mitigation costs. Garmin was reportedly hit by a ransomware attack on July 23 that took down its Garmin Connect service, which customers use to sync their running and biking data, and aviation database services. The company is currently restoring systems and resuming normal service. It’s not clear if it paid a ransom.
In just the past few weeks, the University of California School of Medicine reportedly paid $1.14 million following a ransomware attack; Opus Capital Markets, which conducts due diligence on Freddie Mac mortgage loans, was hit by hackers demanding a ransom; an attack at Honda Motor Company resulted in a halt to global production outside of its headquarters in Japan; Fresenius, one of the largest private hospital operators in Europe and a big player in the U.S. dialysis market, was also the victim of a ransomware event; and European energy giant Enel Group was hit in June, but apparently caught the ransomware attack before the infection spread widely and was able to quickly recover.
To add insult to injury, some companies are now being victimized twice—once by having to pay the attacker to recover their infrastructure and data, and a second time after their customers and partners flee their relationships to avoid being associated with them.
Most of these companies made statements along the lines of: “there is no current evidence of loss of personally identifiable information.” But the longer-term damage to a company’s reputation in terms of possible legal and regulatory action following an attack, plus the loss of revenue during the time it takes to recover, can be significant. And it’s not just large companies that are at risk. Some reports say that almost three-quarters of ransomware attacks are aimed at small-to-medium-sized businesses.
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Double jeopardy
One of the more insidious recent trends involves ransomware criminals making claims of compromise and then extorting the victim into paying the ransom by threatening to broadcast the compromised data online. Security expert Brian Krebs recently reported that several ransomware gangs had started demanding one ransom to secure a digital key to unlock files, folders, and directories encrypted by the hackers’ malware and then a second to stop the hackers publishing stolen information publicly or sharing it with others not authorized to receive it.
When a ransomware event occurs, organizations typically have three choices. They can refuse to pay the ransom because they have a solid digital backup strategy that lets them recover data fast. They can refuse to pay the ransom even if they don’t have such a strategy and hope to somehow recover the data in other ways. Or they can pay the ransom—or ransoms—and hope to get the decryption keys and avoid having the hackers publicize the data loss.
An enterprise-wide defense plan
Clearly, this is an issue that needs to involve all of the top executives of a company, but CIOs and chief information security officers (CISOs) need to drive the process. There are three key tenets for dealing effectively with the ransomware threat:
1. Have a Business Continuity Plan (BCP)—and test it regularly! Many external security assessors still expect to find BCPs that are several years old and have three inches of dust build-up on them. People, processes, and technologies change fast, and organizations that don’t update and test their BCP regularly often find that everything about the plan is out of date when they need it the most.
2. Focus on the data. It’s one thing for an organization to lose control of its systems and hardware. Those are recoverable. It’s another thing to lose control and access to data. Data is the lifeblood of most organizations and it’s not hyperbole to say that a company without its data is a company on its way out of business. Regular backups of critical data are not just a good idea, it’s an essential business function.
3. Regularly educate your users in the tactics of ransomware hackers—and how to spot and avoid them. User training is literally one of the easiest and most effective things a company can do to combat ransomware. Most attacks today are the result of a successful phishing campaign that targets the users of an organization. Simply hoping your users won’t click on a malicious link or open an infected file isn’t a strategy. Cyber-criminals have become incredibly effective at crafting emails that successfully target users and companies that don’t perform regular user refresher training on the methods tactics of ransomware are asking for trouble.
A ransomware attack is gut-check time for the CIO and CISO, but companies that do the simple things to prepare have a greater chance of surviving. The worst time to try and develop a ransomware strategy is in the middle of a ransomware attack.
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de18652da879a7549abca5b0889ca67c | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlamilling/2020/05/26/virtual-reality-emerging-as-effective-pain-management-tool/ | Virtual Reality Emerging As Effective Pain Management Tool | Virtual Reality Emerging As Effective Pain Management Tool
Virtual Reality for Pain Management Hoag Hospital
As doctors work to decrease opioid prescriptions for pain, they may start following the lead of a California hospital that is effectively using virtual reality to help its patients feel better.
Hoag Hospital in Newport Beach is one of the first hospitals in the country to use virtual reality (VR) technology treatment outside of clinical trial settings.
Dr. Robert Louis, neurosurgeon and Director of the Skull Base and Pituitary Tumor Program at the Pickup Family Neurosciences Institute at Hoag Hospital, is at the forefront of finding VR applications for the healthcare setting. He began using Surgical Theatre about five years ago to map out and rehearse brain surgeries.
Surgical Theatre allows surgeons to virtually fly through a patient’s brain and study it from every angle.
“As I told patients about it, the patient engagement started to catch on,” says Louis. “They would say, ‘Can I see it?’ So we started putting patients in VR to understand the plan for surgery. They fly through their own brain and we explain what we’ll do in surgery. It decreases anxiety and makes it easier to understand for the patient.”
Using virtual reality to manage pain
Dr. Louis’s interest in VR didn’t stop in the operating room. He’s passionately focused on integrating this technology in other ways in the healthcare setting.
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He says there have been countless, well-researched studies that show VR can effectively treat acute and chronic pain and decrease the use of opioids.
He cites a 2017 randomized trial at Cedars-Sinai that reported an average 3 point reduction on a scale of 0-10 for pain definition when patients were treated with virtual reality.
“If you tell a nurse that you’re a 7 or 8 on that pain scale, you’ll most likely get fentanyl or morphine, but if you say you’re a 3 or 4, you’ll receive Tylenol,” Louis explains.
Being able to lower the pain in a non-invasive, risk-free way can be instrumental in avoiding potential opioid addiction.
“There’s a ton of research, but no other hospitals have really rolled VR out as a treatment for patients,” he says.
Just as they were getting started implementing VR therapy at Hoag Hospital, the Covid-19 pandemic came into play and they had to take a step back. They ultimately decided to purchase the headsets and roll out to non-Covid patients who were already admitted to the hospital.
Virtual Reality blue whale Hoag Hospital
“They couldn’t have visitors and many were sitting in isolation,” says Louis. “If a patient is alone in a hospital room, we can give them a chance to travel overseas to Bora Bora or go swimming with a dolphin. It’s a distraction and it’s calming.”
Hospital administrators took some nurses who had been furloughed due to the pandemic and deployed a team of eight to help patients use the VR technology to ease their pain. In the past six weeks, they’ve treated about 200 patients and Louis says they’ve witnessed amazing results.
“Some have even told us, ‘This gives me more relief than the morphine,’” he says.
Breathing Life Tree Virtual Reality Hoag Hospital
While some patients enjoy an up-close encounter with a virtual blue whale or visiting a new land, another VR experience includes seeing a dead tree. The patient is encouraged to take long, deep breaths. As their breathing becomes more relaxed, the tree begins to grow and bloom.
The average VR sessions range from 15 to 30 minutes. Louis says he doesn’t like for patients to use the technology past the half-hour mark because it can cause cyber sickness or nausea.
Patients rate their pain before and after each session.
He says the most compelling data comes from MRIs taken before and after some of the sessions that record the areas of the brain responsive to pain.
“Those areas decrease while being treated with VR as evidenced on the MRIs,” Louis says.
Other healthcare applications for VR
Dr. Louis says he’s actively engaged in three areas: deploying, researching and developing new technologies that will cover all areas of the patient experience.
A couple of examples: they’ll send VR headsets home with some patients after surgery and they are developing a weekly educational experience to help women deal with all of the challenges of pregnancy. Each lesson will be paired with a fly through of her baby’s development week by week and end with a guided meditation.
Louis is also on a collaborative FDA committee to establish guidelines for VR to treat acute and chronic pain, and he’s currently planning for a big event this fall.
“We’re hosting a VR and health care conference on October 10,” he says. “We’ll have known experts on using VR for pain from around the world.”
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709d332948a194ff40b098a655af8638 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlamilling/2020/06/06/fragmented-sleep-linked-to-chronic-inflammation-and-hardened-arteries/ | Fragmented Sleep Linked To Chronic Inflammation And Hardened Arteries | Fragmented Sleep Linked To Chronic Inflammation And Hardened Arteries
AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS - JUNE 01: 23-year-old Annabelle Hutt, who lives with severe narcolepsy, ... [+] falls asleep and takes a nap in the yoga room at the gym where she teaches personal training on June 01, 2018 in Amsterdam, Netherlands. A PERSONAL TRAINER suffers with an extreme form of narcolepsy a condition that causes her to uncontrollably fall asleep up to 15 times a day. For most people, sleep is a luxury, but for Belle Hutt, its something she spends most of her time trying to avoid. Whether shes sat in a restaurant with a group of friends, or shes on the sofa at home watching a film, the 23-year-old has to battle excessive sleepiness, hallucinations and cataplexy on a daily basis. Belle, from Surrey, was diagnosed with the condition when she was 17. It was impossible for her to study and she had to drop out of college. Narcolepsy has since left her unable to work a full-time job, but fortunately, Belle has found two big saviours in her life personal training and her boyfriend, Maikel Breukelman. PHOTOGRAPH BY Marcus Cooper / Barcroft Images (Photo credit should read Marcus Cooper / Barcroft Media via Getty Images / Barcroft Media via Getty Images) Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Do you sleep soundly at night? Or do you experience sleep patterns that you would describe as fitful?
Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley say that disrupted night sleep leads to atherosclerosis—fatty arterial plaque buildup that can result in fatal heart disease.
Cardiovascular disease—the current top killer of Americans—claims, on average, 12,000 deaths each week.
The UC Berkeley study, published in the June 4 issue of PLOS Biology points a finger at poor sleep as a key risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Researchers believe their study is the first to associate sleep fragmentation, inflammation and atherosclerosis in humans.
Senior study author Matthew Walker, professor of psychology and neuroscience, says “We’ve discovered that fragmented sleep is associated with a unique pathway—chronic circulating inflammation throughout the blood stream—which, in turn, is linked to higher amounts of plaques in coronary arteries.”
They used statistical modeling to analyze the diagnostic data of more than 1,600 middle-aged and older adults to achieve their findings.
In order to isolate sleep quality effect on heart health, the study considered age, ethnicity, gender, body mass index, sleep disorders blood pressure and high-risk behaviors like smoking.
The research tracked the results by analyzing blood tests, calcium scores that can gauge plaque buildup and it also took different measures of sleep including wristwatch-accessed sleep for a week. Participants also spent a night in a sleep laboratory that measured their electrical brainwave signals.
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While atherosclerosis often begins in early adulthood, it’s largely unnoticed until the plaque buildup in middle or old age suddenly blood flow to the heart, lungs, brain and/or other organs. This is why it has earned the moniker “silent killer.”
Study co-lead author Vyoma Shah says, “The insidious nature of the disease requires that we pay attention to our sleep hygiene, even starting in early to midlife.”
They found that personal assessments of people’s sleep patterns were often unreliable, so they recommend use of clinical grade sleep trackers to get a more accurate picture.
“If you track your sleep patterns using objective measures, the same way you track your weight, blood pressure or cholesterol, you can make modifications to your sleep habits, which could make a tangible difference to later life health outcomes,” says Shah.
It’s possible that fragmented sleep and chronic inflammation could also be linked to major depression and Alzheimer’s disease. The researchers say these are new avenues they must explore.
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db0e07cdd4bf3c45981972fce244d2b8 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlamilling/2020/06/07/wearing-face-masks-during-sex-encouraged-to-help-reduce-coronavirus-transmission/ | Wearing Face Masks During Sex Encouraged To Help Reduce Coronavirus Transmission | Wearing Face Masks During Sex Encouraged To Help Reduce Coronavirus Transmission
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 02: A couple wearing protective face masks embrace in Washington Square ... [+] Park during the coronavirus pandemic on May 2, 2020 in New York City. COVID-19 has spread to most countries around the world, claiming over 248,000 lives and infecting over 3.5 million people. (Photo by Gotham/Getty Images) Getty Images
You may not have considered wearing a face mask in the bedroom, but Harvard researchers recommend that people not quarantining together wear face masks and avoid kissing during sex.
They report that “it appears all forms of in-person sexual contact carry risk for viral transmission, because the virus is readily transmitted by aerosols.”
In their commentary, “Sexual Health in the SARS-CoV-2 Era” that was published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, the researchers provide guidelines healthcare providers can use when counseling their patients about the Covid-19 risks related to sex.
They have ranked sexual activity based on level of risk:
Abstinence - low risk, but not feasible for many
Masturbation - low risk for infection
Digital sexual activity - This includes cyber sex and phone sex, but researchers caution about the risk of screenshots and sexual extortion.
Sex with someone you are quarantined with - Risk of infection if partner is exposed outside the home; risk of infection from asymptomatic partner.
Sex with someone you are NOT quarantined with - Risk reduction includes limiting the number of partners, avoiding sex with partners who have evident symptoms consistent with Covid-19, avoiding kissing and behaviors with risk of fecal-oral transmission, wearing face masks, showering before and after sex, and cleaning the physical space with soap or alcohol wipes.
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The New York City Health Department previously released a detailed guide about safe sex practices during the pandemic.
It echos the advice of the Harvard researchers saying you are your safest sex partner and the next safest sex partner is someone you live with.
It also urges consideration if you or your partner has any medical condition linked to more severe Covid-19 symptoms (such as diabetes, cancer, heart disease, etc.) In these cases, health officials say you may want to skip sex.
Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus
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78aedb7a47df58e64192d79746722a4a | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlenahartz/2018/01/24/living-in-a-shell-families-struggle-to-recover-after-hurricane-harvey/ | Living In A Shell: Families Struggle To Recover After Hurricane Harvey | Living In A Shell: Families Struggle To Recover After Hurricane Harvey
Nearly half of all Texans who suffered Harvey losses aren't getting the help they need, according to... [+] a recent survey. Maria Rocha places debris outside her home in a neighborhood that was flooded by Hurricane Harvey in Beaumont, Texas, Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2017. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
It’s difficult for Gordon Hatthorn, a Gulf War veteran, to ask for help.
“We’ve always tried to survive on our own, no matter what,” said Gordon’s wife, Tiana.
Since Hurricane Harvey hit their small town of Danbury, Texas, it’s been harder and harder to survive on their own. The storm flooded their house and the office where Tiana worked, leaving her jobless.
The couple lives in their hurricane-ravaged house with their 14-year-old daughter. The walls, once infested with mold, had to be gutted, and the family has to hang sheets for privacy. Their kitchen cabinets and flooring, exposed to more than a foot of dirty flood water, are destroyed, too.
“We’re living in a shell,” said Tiana.
The Hatthorns’ predicament isn’t rare. Nearly half of all Texans who suffered Harvey losses aren’t getting the help they need, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation/Episcopal Health Foundation survey. Most of the hardest-hit families live in Southeast Texas, outside of Houston, on small incomes.
The Hatthorns now rely solely on Gordon’s paycheck from the local post office. They live outside the 500-year floodplain and didn’t have flood insurance. This, too, is common: Less than 2 in 10 flood-impacted homeowners had insurance protection, according to the Consumer Federation of America.
Four months after Harvey, the Hatthorns finally received aid from FEMA. But it only covers about one-fifth of what they need to fix their house. The family doesn’t know when, or if, they’ll be able to fully repair it.
Hurricane Harvey flooded Tiana and Gordon Hatthorn's home in Danbury, Texas, with a foot of water.... [+] They didn't have flood insurance, and they're not sure when, or if, they'll be able repair their home. Photo courtesy of American Homeless Families Foundation
In Texas, roughly 40% of Harvey survivors have received FEMA aid, according to figures provided by a FEMA spokesperson, with claims denied for a variety of reasons from missing documents to lack of home ownership to existing insurance coverage. FEMA officials admit last year's back-to-back disasters, including three strong hurricanes and wildfires, "created challenges and stretched agency resources," leading to long wait times for help.
But FEMA alone is “not going to be able to make people whole,” said Robert Howard, a FEMA spokesperson based in Austin. “Our goal is to make sure that people have a safe, secure and sanitary living situation.”
Less than 2,000 FEMA claims for Harvey damage remain, according to Howard. At this point in the recovery phase, Howard said FEMA encourages families who are still in need to seek out community resources.
“Hopefully, these resources will be available to move families further along the path to recovery,” he said.
The Hatthorns have relied on varied resources. A local church helped them demolish their mold-infested walls. The American Homeless Families Foundation replaced their appliances. Still, there’s no final resolution for the family in sight.
It’s no surprise to Bessie Schwarz that the safety net is failing the Hatthorns and other Harvey survivors.
“In the U.S., when a major hurricane hits, we are in many ways just as vulnerable, especially in the poor parts of this country, as people in developing countries,” said Schwarz, the chief strategist at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the cofounder of Cloud to Street.
Cloud to Street combines data analysis, satellite imagery and crowdsourced information to create layered flood-risk maps that pinpoint the most vulnerable communities. If deployed before Harvey, the software may have pinpointed Dickinson, Texas, as a place of need. It’s home to the Vita Bella Nursing Home. A few days Harvey hit, a photo of the nursing home’s residents stranded in waist high flood water went viral.
With real time data in hand, Schwarz hopes first responders and emergency planners can better protect the most vulnerable communities from disasters. Once they identified at-risk communities, they could choose a range of interventions, from launching an insurance campaign before a disaster to sending more first responders or medication to a neighborhood after a disaster. Schwarz studied flood risks in Texas after Harvey, and she predicts women, the elderly and people in rural communities will be disproportionately affected by future floods.
“To me, an important first step is actually having accurate—and, at a minimum, not misleading information—about who needs what, and then we can figure out a way to address it,” said Schwarz. "I think the break down is the way our system is set up," she added. "We need to support decision makers to care, and then give them tools to make the right decisions."
In the meantime, the Hatthorns are trying their best to adjust to their difficult post-Harvey world.
“It’s overwhelming,” said Tiana. “But it didn’t just rain on us. We weren’t the only ones affected, so you can’t hold yourself down with that. There was nothing we could do about it. You save what you can, and pick up, and try to go on.”
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45e70d57b9ac3b80978c77f9da76754c | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/02/27/exclusive-poll-sanders-still-leads-the-pack-bloomberg-gains-momentum-and-biden-stalls-among-americas-young-voters/ | Exclusive Poll: Sanders Still Leads The Pack, Bloomberg Gains Momentum And Biden Stalls Among America’s Young Voters | Exclusive Poll: Sanders Still Leads The Pack, Bloomberg Gains Momentum And Biden Stalls Among America’s Young Voters
CHAPEL HILL, NC - SEPTEMBER 19: Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) shakes ... [+] hands with supporters after addressing an audience on the campus of the University of Chapel Hill during a campaign rally on September 19, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Sanders spoke to college students on the working peoples rights, among fair wage and health care. (Photo by Sara D. Davis/Getty Images) Getty Images
Bernie Sanders, who at 78 years old ranks as the oldest Democratic presidential candidate, continues to attract the country’s youngest voters. According to the second installment of the monthly Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey, Powered By Zogby Strategies, the Democratic Socialist expanded his lead to an impressive 22 points among likely Democratic primary and caucus voters ages 18 to 29. Of those surveyed, 38% ranked the Vermont senator as their top pick. Last month, that number was closer to 32%, with Sanders’ lead hovering around 16 points.
Trailing Sanders, former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg came in a distant second, with 16% of respondents naming the billionaire as their first choice. Meanwhile, 13% of young voters chose former vice president Joe Biden, 9% Senator Elizabeth Warren and 7% former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Sanders outperforms his peers on a host of other metrics, too. He’s the favorite candidate among both men and women, Democrats and independents, and whites, Hispanics and African Americans within this young cohort. His favorable-to-unfavorable ratio—65% to 27%—is the best of the bunch. (Biden is the only other candidate to earn more than half of the voters’ approval, with 52% viewing the former vice president either “somewhat” or “very” favorably.)
Consistent with last month’s findings, these numbers come as no surprise; young voters are a cornerstone of the Sanders campaign. And his support is growing—our most recent poll shows that 36% of young voters now see Sanders as the best hope for beating President Donald Trump, up from 29% in January. This number in particular should have some of Sanders’ closer-to-center competitors sweating. Candidates who once banked on the broad appeal of a moderate campaign may need to recalibrate if they want to attract the under-30 set. In terms of electability, other candidates have dropped in the polls. Only 13% of young voters see Biden as the best bet in the general election, down from 20% last month. Buttigieg nabbed 6% of this metric and Senator Amy Klobuchar held steady at a paltry 4%.
On the other hand, Bloomberg—who, with a net worth of $59.4 billion, stands in stark opposition to Sanders—has reason to celebrate his second-place finish. Out of all the Democratic candidates, the media tycoon gained the most traction over the last month. His 16% slice of the electoral pie represents a significant surge from just 8% the month prior. Likewise, his favorability ratio is up to 45% from 32%, and 16% view him as the candidate most likely to beat Trump, compared to just 7% in January.
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Bloomberg’s upswing is bad news for the other Democratic moderates who desperately need momentum. Without a last-minute breakout surge, the end is likely near for businessman Tom Steyer, Representative Tulsi Gabbard and Senator Klobuchar. While a vice presidential bid might make a fitting consolation prize, these long shots received 6%, 2% and 5%, respectively, when voters were asked to name their second choice.
Courting the youth vote can prove auspicious for presidential hopefuls. In 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama received 66% and 61%, respectively, from the 18- to 29-year-old vote. In the months to come, Forbes will keep a close eye on how the candidates fare among this coveted demographic. After all, this cohort will hold sway over U.S. politics for the next 50 years—or more. The Forbes Under 30 Voter Survey, Powered By Zogby Strategies, was conducted online on February 23, 2020, and February 24, 2020, and consisted of 1,005 likely voters (including 619 likely Democratic primary and caucus voters) ages 18 to 29. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.
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24e80b5104d9ee1eab44126a5663bedb | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/02/the-us-may-be-heading-to-a-second-or-even-fourth-wave-of-the-coronavirus-epidemic-heres-what-that-means/ | The U.S. May Be Heading To A Second (Or Even Fourth) Wave Of The Coronavirus Epidemic. Here’s What That Means | The U.S. May Be Heading To A Second (Or Even Fourth) Wave Of The Coronavirus Epidemic. Here’s What That Means
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 02: A masked woman waits for a bus in lower Manhattan on April 02, 2020 ... [+] in New York City. Currently, over 92,000 people in New York state have tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19). (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) Getty Images
Topline: Some scientists and commentators, like leading coronavirus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci, have referenced the possibility of a “second wave” of the coronavirus pandemic in the fall, following expected slower growth rates of COVID-19 cases during the summer, while infectious disease specialist Dr. Kent Sepkowitz suggests a “fourth wave” may already be upon us. Here’s what you need to know.
The Centers For Disease Control yesterday warned that the United States may face a second wave of the virus come fall, as happened in 2009 with swine flu. By this time, many initial cases will have resolved or ended in death but a large swath of the population will still be susceptible to the infection, said CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield. Kent Sepkowitz, an infectious disease specialist for Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, in an op-ed on CNN, offered an alternative definition for tracking coronavirus waves. The first wave, according to Sepkowitz, started on the West Coast, where coronavirus ravaged a Washington-state nursing home, and in the second wave, the virus hit New York City, the country’s current epicenter, where nearly 50,000 patients have been infected so far. In the third wave, coronavirus moved to other urban centers now emerging as “hot spots,” like New Orleans, Detroit and Atlanta. Now, the United States has entered a fourth wave, he argues, with the virus infiltrating mid-sized and smaller cities, undercutting the popular belief that only densely populated areas could be hard hit. Crucially, smaller cities and rural towns may lack the hospital capacity to care for an influx of patients and may be forced to lean on bigger cities already buckling under their own caseloads. “The disruption of the well-established chain of care that goes from community hospital to local major medical center, then to regional super-specialty care may result in the largest tragedy of all,” Sepkowitz concludes.
Critical quote: “It is highly likely that we will have—I don’t know whether you want to call it a second wave—but we will have a return of infections as we get into the next season,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said of the virus’ progression.
Further reading: 1 Million Coronavirus Cases Reported Globally
Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus
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38ab106f94c963ed29cb15c3e828f684 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/04/04/this-see-through-mask-lets-the-deaf-communicate-while-staying-safe/?fbclid=IwAR1_EH8X8UBfqB4NzudBO2NAqsbWdi0srwnaQNsbk92ZC8BXFUUD6W7uFRc | This See-Through Mask Lets The Deaf Communicate While Staying Safe | This See-Through Mask Lets The Deaf Communicate While Staying Safe
Ashley Lawrence models her mask design, which allows deaf and hard of hearing individuals to read ... [+] lips and expressions. Ashley Lawrence
Topline: Ashley Lawrence, a senior at Eastern Kentucky University studying deaf and hard of hearing education, created an innovative mask that uses a clear panel that lets the deaf read lips and facial cues while still adhering to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s new guidelines for face coverings.
"I just saw that people were making masks on Facebook for everyone to have instead of the throwaway masks, and I was like, what about the deaf and hard of hearing population?" she told Kentucky outlet Lex 18. For many members of the deaf and hard of hearing community, the prevalence of coronavirus-related mask use poses challenges because lipreading is often an essential form of communication, while American Sign Language leans heavily on facial cues and expressions. Lawrence and her mother started by sewing her designs from a set of spare bedsheets, and so far the pair have received orders from six states. She’s also thinking about how she can make her design even more inclusive, telling Lex 18, "We're trying different things for people with cochlear implants and hearing aids if they can't wrap around the ear. We're making some that have around the head and around the neck." As long as it’s feasible, she plans to provide her masks for free deaf and hard of hearing individuals who reach out to her at dhhmaskproject@gmail.com.
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f481a7ddb72ca26afaec9eb4c4bd41ec | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marleycoyne/2020/05/13/the-worlds-largest-apparel-companies-2020-lmvh-on-top-while-nike-gains-foothold/ | The World’s Largest Apparel Companies 2020: LVMH On Top While Nike Gains Foothold | The World’s Largest Apparel Companies 2020: LVMH On Top While Nike Gains Foothold
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 13: A view of "Vessel" and "The Shed" at Hudson Yards in Manhattan on ... [+] March 13, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Roy Rochlin/Getty Images) Getty Images
As brick-and-mortar stores remain boarded up amid coronavirus lockdowns, retail spending in the United States took the steepest nosedive in more than 70 years. In March, the Department of Commerce pegged apparel and accessory purchases down 50%. Clothing companies like True Religion, J. Crew and Neiman Marcus all filed for bankruptcy—the first major retail businesses felled, at least in part, by the pandemic.
Despite the gloomy outlook for today’s apparel retailers, the industry titans on the 18th annual Forbes Global 2000 list—which uses market value, sales, profits and assets to determine the world’s largest public companies—seem poised to survive.
Atop the list of apparel’s largest sits LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, which includes luxury brands like Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior and Givenchy. Run by French billionaire Bernard Arnault, LVMH has a $194 billion market value and assets exceeding $108 billion, making it the 73rd largest public company in the world. (In previous years, Forbes counted the conglomerate’s main holding company, Dior, on the apparel list, rather than LVMH itself, which owns non-apparel brands like Dom Pérignon and Sephora. The change reflects FactSet Research’s industry classifications.)
Sportswear giant Nike finished in a distant second among apparel companies, climbing 35 spots to become the 244th largest public company in the world. Fellow footwear maker Adidas also made strides, cracking the top 400 with more than $25 billion in sales.
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Canadian-based Lululemon, which came in 1209th overall, maintained last year’s momentum, clocking nearly $4 billion in sales, up from $3.2 billion last year. Thanks to the athleisure brand’s e-commerce surge and strong balance sheet, some analysts predict that the company may actually end up in better shape than it was prior to the pandemic.
Still, for others on this list, the bad news may outweigh the good. Ranked 1490th, Nordstrom, for example, recently announced the permanent closure of 16 stores, striking fear that the department store may go the way of Neiman Marcus, Bergdorf Goodman and Barneys.
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e91f7a470395190882315177ea872f27 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallphelps/2019/02/25/is-5g-being-weaponized/ | Is 5G Being Weaponized? | Is 5G Being Weaponized?
Via President Joe Siino Credit: Via Licensing
“If you think the last patent war over smartphones was bad, just wait until 5G starts being deployed throughout the global economy,” warns Joseph Siino, president of patent pool operator Via Licensing. “It could be even more costly and wasteful than the last one."
But it doesn’t have to go that way, he adds. "We can stop the coming 5G patent war before it even begins and save businesses and consumers a great deal of money, litigation expense and heartache.”
Siino knows what he’s talking about, having worked with and advised companies on both sides of the smartphone patent war a few years ago — both patent owners and product makers. In fact, I profiled him two years ago after he struck a breakthrough deal with Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi that showed how the U.S. and China could solve their trade and intellectual property (IP) disputes without recourse to trade wars. He was also the top dealmaker who crafted Yahoo’s $1 billion technology and IP license deal with Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba back in 2005.
But all that, says Siino, is small potatoes compared to the exponentially higher stakes in the new 5G wireless revolution.
“5G wireless technology is going to transform every business and every industry, just as the Internet once did,” explains Siino. Indeed, with wireless speeds up to 1000 times faster than today, 5G will let consumers download a high-definition movie in seconds rather than an hour or more. What’s more, 5G’s ultra-fast speed will enable businesses to unleash a cornucopia of amazing new products and services, from fully-autonomous vehicles to radical new advances in medicine, banking, industrial automation, personalized retailing, artificial intelligence, and more. Millions of new jobs will be created thanks to 5G.
As the New York Times reported February 12, 5G “will change the whole way societies function. While the public might think of 5G as simply a matter of faster download times, the system is designed to be far more, linking everything from the cars we drive to the hospitals we visit in a way unimaginable only a decade ago.”
But as Mr. Siino reminds us, one big challenge with the 5G revolution is that the businesses that make all these ultra-fast new wireless products and services are going to have to pay royalties to 5G equipment and software vendors for the right to use their patented 5G technology. And the competition among 5G rights holders for those royalty dollars is getting more ferocious by the day, as 5G starts getting deployed in a wide range of industries and applications.
“5G technology players make no secret of the ambitious monetization targets they have for their patent portfolios,” observed Jim Beveridge of the Innovators Network in an industry trade magazine recently. “As the 5G digital data pipe becomes attached to different industry segments, so the royalty train follows it.”
Indeed, just figuring out who pays whom, and for precisely what piece of 5G technology, is a challenge all by itself. “Although the [technological] standards may be clearly defined, the management of the royalties isn’t,” said Beveridge. “It’s a mind-boggling, complex riddle to work out who to pay what, when, and to whom, while avoiding being sued. This is particularly taxing for the [smaller business] setting out to develop new products, applications and services.”
As if the threat of being sued or paying exorbitant 5G licensing fees wasn’t scary enough for businesses, there is also a major geopolitical threat to navigate. As the Wall Street Journal noted on February 6, "The U.S. is looking to encourage new corporate competitors into the 5G race, fearful that Chinese competitors could gain an insurmountable global lead in the years to come."
Adds the New York Times: “American officials regard the technology as a national security issue and have moved aggressively to limit the role of Chinese companies.”
The combination of these competitive and geopolitical battles adds up to the ultimate worst-case scenario for businesses that make 5G-enabled products and services — a patent war wrapped in a trade war!
Think about it: 5G technology vendors from China, the U.S., and Europe all demanding you pay each of them varying percentages of every sale of your 5G-enabled product -- or else get sued. The U.S. or China slapping tariffs or sanctions on the components you need for your products. Your legal costs soaring through the roof. Trade bureaucrats mucking up your supply chain. Geopolitics getting in the way of what ought to be simple business transactions to get your products to market.
And if you’re a small business, you could really be screwed. As Jim Beveridge noted, “Small [firms] don’t have the corporate firepower required to manage royalty costs. The costs eat into the operational budget that could be used to develop new products and services.”
But there is a way for businesses to find shelter from these 5G technology storms, says Via’s Joe Siino. “Patent pools are a proven, private market solution to the costs and risks of patent licensing,” he notes, “and they’ve been delivering exceptional results since the very first patent pool ended the sewing machine patent war of 1853. They’re even more valuable today, when patent risks and the economy itself have become globalized.”
So, what’s a patent pool? Simply put, it’s a collaborative, multi-party licensing structure bringing innovators and product makers together into a one-stop shop. Innovators get compensated for their patented technology, and manufacturers get the rights they need to use that technology in their products -- all in a fair and transparent manner.
As examples, Mr. Siino cites the data compression protocols for transmitting high-density digital audio content that make up Via’s Advanced Audio Coding (AAC) patent pool. He also points to the 3G and 4G wireless patents that make up Via’s Multigenerational (MG) patent pool composed of technology vendors, service providers, and makers of mobile devices.
One major benefit of patent pools is that they enable manufacturers to overcome product roadblocks and get the rights to use the patented technology they need at a much lower cost. How much less? In a landmark 2017 study, Robert Merges, professor of law and co-director of the Berkeley Center for Law and Technology at the University of California at Berkeley, and Michael Mattioli, associate professor of law at Indiana University’s Maurer School of Law, researched the economics of Via’s AAC audio patent pool.
They determined that the 800-plus product maker licensees in that pool saved over $600 million in costs compared to what they would have spent had they licensed all the separate audio patent rights bilaterally from their individual owners. That $600 million goes right to those businesses’ bottom lines — plus they get to avoid all the high-risk litigation expense that often accompanies adversarial bilateral patent licensing.
The global nature of patent pools is another plus, especially given today’s worsening trade frictions. They enable Chinese, European, and U.S. companies to license in or license out the rights to critical patented technology via a structure that does not belong to any one nation or another.
In fact, Via’s 4G LTE wireless pool includes Chinese licensors Lenovo and China Mobile, along with U.S. technology leaders Google, Verizon, and AT&T. Via’s LTE pool also includes Siemens of Germany, Telefonica of Spain, Telecom Italia of Italy, the Taiwanese manufacturers Mediatek and Innovative Sonic, SK Telecom of Korea, and the Japanese technology leaders NTT DOCOMO and KDDI.
As for Via’s AAC audio patent pool, that one includes more than 900 manufacturing licensees from every continent except Antarctica.
A third benefit of patent pools is much greater transparency compared to traditional patent licensing. “In traditional bilateral licensing," says Siino, “prices are almost never published. You rarely know what someone else paid for the patent rights you seek — or even who the licensees are. You’re going into every negotiation essentially blind. And it’s a tremendous incentive for brinksmanship and litigation.”
But patent pools, on the other hand -- including those operated by Via, Avanci and SISVEL -- openly publish their royalty rates. “Via’s terms are fair, reasonable and non-discriminatory for all licensees,” says Siino. “Licensees greatly appreciate the more transparent approach.”
But while patent pools generally offer a fairer and more transparent structure, there are differences between them. Some observers believe that the patent pools operated by Avanci may be more deferential to the interests of large patent owners. Others, like Via’s pools, appear to be more balanced in representing the interests of both patent owner licensors and product maker licensees.
Only Via’s pools, for example, offer discounted rates for low-volume manufacturers — a particular benefit to smaller businesses that enables them to grow with the program and pay more in royalties only as their sales expand.
Another advantage of patent pools, especially Via's, is that licensees can be certain that the patents in the pool are truly essential — not simply because the patent owners claim they are, but because the pool works with independent neutral evaluators to vet the patents and attest to their essentiality.
As Ira Blumberg, vice president of litigation and intellectual property at smartphone maker Lenovo, wrote last year in Chief Executive magazine: “Few if any other patent owners offer such demonstrable assurance of patent quality, which is vitally important to product makers who don’t want to end up paying for the intellectual property equivalent of ‘fool’s gold.’”
Patent pools can offer businesses immunity from the technology and trade battles now brewing over 5G around the globe. This is the fundamental reason why the European Commission is actively exploring the use of patent pools and has established an Expert Group to study the concept in detail and make recommendations for the implementation of a patent pool structure for licensing 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) rights.
As the EU Commission stated: “[Patent pools] can address many of the [standard essential patent] licensing challenges by offering better scrutiny on essentiality, more clarity on aggregate licensing fees, and one-stop-shop solutions. For IoT industries, and particularly [small and medium-sized enterprises], pools for key standardized technologies should be encouraged.”
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71d75fe642a8a9b2ebb6de67b76709bb | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/10/03/european-model-vs-american-model-post-joaquin-debate-likely-but-some-perspective/ | Some Perspective On European Vs American Weather Models After Hurricane Joaquin | Some Perspective On European Vs American Weather Models After Hurricane Joaquin
Yep, it has already started. And many of us knew that it would. The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) or "Euro" model seems to have sniffed out Hurricane Joaquin's eventual track before NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction GFS did. People and media are now using this single event to make sweeping statements about superiority. And I totally get it. Lives and property are at stake, and it was a "high profile, high impact" event.
European model forecast from WSI. Taken from the KCRG website:... [+] http://www.kcrg.com/subject/weather-water-cooler/GFS-model-embarrassed-yet-again-20151002
We saw this debate after Hurricane Sandy as well. From that discussion, the United States did step forward with legislation to improve weather modeling capacity and close the perceived gap. The Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 provided funds for the National Weather Service to purchase new equipment and computing infrastructure. This “Sandy supplemental" funding and its implications were covered extensively by Jason Samenow in the Capital Weather Gang and provides some of the perspectives and arguments at that time.
Earlier this year, NOAA announced significant investments and improvements that would lead to a nearly 10-fold increase from the current capacity. One of my favorite weather writers, Dennis Mersereau's article in The Vane was titled, "NOAA Upgrades the American Weather Model So It ***** Just a Little Less." NOAA's statement noted:
With this larger capacity, NOAA’s National Weather Service ...will begin running an upgraded version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) with greater resolution that extends further out in time – the new GFS will increase resolution from 27km to 13km out to 10 days and 55km to 33km for 11 to 16 days. In addition, the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be upgraded by increasing the number of vertical levels from 42 to 64 and increasing the horizontal resolution from 55km to 27km out to eight days and 70km to 33km from days nine to 16.
Fast forward to October 2015 and the same debate has surfaced. An article in the New York Times weighs in with some good discussion. However, as this debate picks up steam, I wanted to provide some context and cautions.
Both models are world class models. I think that often gets lost in the crossfire. A 2015 study in a highly cited journal quantifies the dramatic improvements in weather model predictive skill in the 1-14 day range. However, there are differences in their physics, data assimilation schemes, and other technical parameters. Studies have pointed to the differences in the way cloud systems are handled or the way satellite data is ingested into the models (assimilation) as being critical to the model performance. If you want to do some heavylift reading, I point you to this excellent article on data assimilation because it is critical to understanding some of the differences between the "Euro" and "GFS."
I recall having dinner with the Director of ECMWF Alan Thorpe in Reading, UK a few years ago, and he chuckled at the vigor of how citizens here debate the models. He alluded to the fact that GFS beats the European model often. In fact, it seems that the people were just throwing the European model under the bus in January after the New York City snowstorm fiasco because it had the storm 100 or so miles from where it actually was. I suspect some forecasters' tendency to trust the "Euro" played into the outcomes. We had a fascinating discussion on this storm on a past episode of Weather Geeks. And oh by the way, the "Euro" was not necessarily great with Tropical Storm Erika a few weeks ago.
My intent here is to not cheer for any particular model. Any discussion that leads to improved capacity for weather modeling in the United States is fine with me. Even on Weather Geeks last year, the director of the National Weather Service lauded the European Model as we discussed the state of U.S. weather models on the show.
In a discussion with Andy Revkin during the 2015 Blizzard debate, I said
The U.S. funding model is a bit different than the Europeans. NOAA has to take a limited budget and make decisions on faster computers (required for complex assimilation schemes), new satellites (GOES-R, JPSS), upgraded radar systems (Dual-Polarization), Forecast Office personnel, and so on. It is important for the public to understand this rather than frame the problem as if the U.S. has been asleep at the wheel. During my AMS Presidency, I am on record as noting that our policymakers must prioritize weather infrastructure at the same level as national security (because they are actually related).
This point is also important because the European model is ingesting data from several operational and research satellites from NOAA and NASA . So it's success is not completely separate from U.S. resources. It does have agreements with other nations too.
I felt compelled to write this for perspective as the debate goes forward. I am about to kick back and watch college football today. The analogy that comes to mind is a field goal kicker. He can make every kick throughout the year, but during the National Championship Bowl game if he misses at crunch time, he will be talked about and even called a bad kicker. I think weather models experience this "What Have You Done For Me Lately" criticism, too.
(Wow, a Janet Jackson song made it into one of my articles....)
Gallery: 10 Common Myths And Misconceptions About The Science Of Weather 10 images View gallery
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1ea6c922d9217ba1e77a6894bd0235fe | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/11/17/christmas-tornado-threats-and-november-outbreaks-is-this-unusual/ | Christmas Tornado Threats And November Outbreaks: Is this Unusual? | Christmas Tornado Threats And November Outbreaks: Is this Unusual?
As we approach Christmas 2015, the Southeast is under the threat of potential tornadic storms. This is not as unusual as you may think as "Tornado season" in the United States is year round. From the graphic below, clearly the spring and summer are the most dominant part of the year. Regional climatologist (Southeast Regional Climate Center) Jordan McLeod emailed me and pointed out:
Two of the biggest December tornado outbreaks on record occurred during strong El Nino years: 1957 and 1982. The December 18-19, 1957 outbreak was the most intense outbreak on record for the month of December (37 total tornadoes, 9 F3s, 3 F4s, 1 F5, 19 fatalities), affecting the states of MO, AR, IL, TN, and AL. There were two big tornado outbreaks in December 1982, and both occurred predominately in Dixie Alley. The second of the two outbreaks is known as the Christmas Outbreak of 1982 (December 23-25), resulting of 42 tornadoes and 3 fatalities.
Tornadoes by month in the United States. Source: NOAA
For the current threat in the Southeast, Birmingham Meteorologist James Spann has an excellent blog detailing what to expect. It is always important to note that even if you prepare and nothing happens, "that's OK." The inconvenience of over-preparation could save your life. And if nothing happens, at least you know what to do.
One of the bigger outbreaks of 2015 happened in November. On the evening of November 18th, a tornado may have ripped through metropolitan southwest Atlanta. Possibly 40 tornadoes roared through parts of the United States Plains on the evening of November 16 and into the morning of November 17th. Accuweather's website has some impressive video footage of a massive tornado near Pampa, Texas. More tornado footage on the WxGeeks Facebook page is simply jaw-dropping. As I monitored social media, I saw a few nom-meteorologist friends remarking about how strange this seemed. "It's not tornado season" seemed to be the thinking. Tim Marshall, a meteorologist, storm chaser and engineer with Haag Engineering Company, says:
The same conditions that produce the spring severe weather season also reappear in the fall (although it is to a lesser degree). It's the never ending ebb and flow of the seasons.
Dr. Harold Brooks of NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory captures it perfectly:
Tornadoes can happen any time of year. It looks like the November 16th outbreak is the biggest outbreak of significant tornadoes in November on record this far west.
In fact, my former graduate student Dr. Theresa Andersen and I published a paper on southeast tornadoes and included this figure noting a secondary peak in tornadoes in November in the region.
Tornado statistics (1980 to 2006) in the southeast U.S. From Andersen and Shepherd 2011
Dr. Brooks', one of the foremost tornado experts in the world, preliminary assessment affirms at least two things. It isn't necessarily weird to have tornadoes in November, but the Plains event (including Pampa) was a rare outbreak in some ways. James Ladue, Senior Instructor at the Warning Decision Training Division of the National Weather Service, echoed some of Brooks initial thinking. He provided me with multi-radar/multi-sensor rotation tracks for the strongest portion of the outbreak. He told me in a message:
I think this outbreak is unprecedented for so far west, so late in the fall. But the model forecasts were spectacular, and that helped the NOAA's Storm Prediction Center do a fantastic forecast for an enhanced outlook 2-3 days ahead of yesterday.
Multi-radar/multi-sensor rotation tracks for the strongest portion of the November 16-17 tornado... [+] outbreak. Courtesy of James Ladue.
James Ladue is also chair and founder of the ASCE Tornado Wind Speed Estimation Standards Committee so he knows tornadoes. He makes a great point about how well-predicted this event was in terms of various "indicators" that meteorologists utilize (e.g., Probability of convective precipitation, Significant Tornado Parameter, Storm Scale Ensemble Helicity). Ladue points out that many of the conditions that Tim Marshall alluded to clearly pointed to this outbreak so I do not want to see any mass media headline saying the storm "struck without warning." That has become an overused "cliche" that I despise. Ladue notes:
College of Dupage's Significant Tornado Parameter on the deterministic NAM (a numerical weather model) from the day before showing really high values all the way to near Nebraska. It pretty much outlines the outbreak, if just a bit too far east. Then the storm scale ensemble updraft helicity tracks from the previous night from SPC with one track following closely the storm that nearly hit Pampa, TX. Then a trio of consecutive HRRR forecasts of updraft helicity depict a supercell an unusually good premonition of the Panhandle, TX storm visible on the rotation tracks.
NAM Significant Tornado Parameter prior to outbreak. Source: James Ladue.
By the way, what do meteorologists mean when we use the term "outbreak?"
The American Meteorological Society's Glossary of Meteorology defines it as:
Multiple tornado occurrences associated with a particular synoptic-scale system.....Galway (1977) has defined ten or more tornadoes as constituting an outbreak.
Though this definition is offered, there is some disagreement on the definition and frankly, I think the AMS Glossary definition could use some refinement. Chris Fuhrmann and colleagues have discussed the definition recently. Roger Edwards and colleagues at the Storm Prediction Center also provide some thoughts on how outbreak should be defined.
I think most agree with the notion that this particular event was an outbreak, and Ladue sums it up nicely:
I think the gist of this event is when the ingredients are right for tornadoes, season doesn't matter.
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e66b260e695bb89341d3da06540c0cc3 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/01/23/thank-you-meteorologists-again/ | This Winter Storm Should Remind You To Thank Meteorologists | This Winter Storm Should Remind You To Thank Meteorologists
This Blizzard is as advertised: 30+ inch snowfall totals, coastal flooding, and blistering winds. As I watch the storm play out, I am reflecting on a couple of narratives that sadly play out at times, "federal employees are lazy bureaucrats, incompetent, or not innovative" and "meteorologists are guessing half of the time." I had no plans to write anything today until I saw a few pictures posted by the National Weather Service. It felt right to offer this "thank you" note to meteorologists and related communities.
Courtesy of the National Weather Service Facebook Page
Let me deal with the federal narrative first. Thank you to the dedicated National Weather Service meteorologists and related staff that have worked tirelessly to collect data, analyze information, and disseminate it to the public, media, emergency managers, and other stakeholders. I often lament that people take good quality forecasts, warning information, and resources for granted. Weather balloons do not launch themselves. The vigilant warnings and information at all hours of the day don't just appear ("poof") out of thin air. The forecast offices are not staffed by robots. In fact, during December tornadic storms in Texas, National Weather Service meteorologists effectively got critical information out to the public with short-staffed offices. Vacant jobs and other staffing issues are beyond the scope of the meteorologists' pay grade, however, it does illustrate the dedication and professionalism that these colleagues display day after day.
I have argued many times as a leader within the meteorological community that federal meteorologists and weather infrastructure should be valued as a critical national asset at the level of national security. Weather hazards like the Blizzard of 2016 (it has various names), Hurricane Sandy, and the 2015 South Carolina floods affect families, their lives, and property. Weather events are also directly related to economic vitality and national security. For these reasons, I value our meteorology colleagues.
These colleagues are often pawns during political gamesmanship, government shutdowns, and sequestrations. Yet, they show up on the "promise of pay" and deliver for the nation. And they do their job well and not necessarily under the most optimal of circumstances. When I saw the pictures above, I felt compelled to write this commentary. As renowned meteorologist and friend Dr. Chuck Doswell said in a Facebook post,
Kudos to the NWS forecasters who are ready to maintain their public service obligations in the face of personal challenges. Bravo!!
Ok, let me shift to the "guesser" narrative. Just this week, I was speaking to a member of the public that insisted on saying meteorologists are "guessers." I found that insulting because I know the complexity of meteorology and the skill that is involved. Gee, we were only talking about this "Blizzard" for well over a week. Accuweather's Becky Elliot wrote an outstanding piece in the Washington Post trying to erode the naive perspectives toward meteorologists. The cliche narrative that meteorologists are "guessers" or "wrong 50% of the time" is a messy and dangerous game that could undermine a meteorologist's ability to reach the public in life-threatening situations like this Blizzard.
I must also extend this gratitude to the numerous private sector meteorologists, broadcasters, weather journalists and stakeholders that are equally diligent with their time, service, and obligations. Warnings about coastal flooding in the Northeast or snowfall totals in Washington, D.C. show up on your smartphone, television, or website. While this may be taken for granted, there are human beings behind behind that information.
Look, this is not to suggest that your profession doesn't work hard without proper gratitude. Most professionals, irrespective of occupation, do. But meteorologists are often thrown under the bus, ridiculed, or disrespected. Meteorologists don't work for tips. However, I can offer a tip: Let's elevate understanding of the rigor of meteorology and thank a meteorologist every now and then.
As my University of Georgia colleague Dr. John Knox notes that most people don't refer to doctors as "health guessers" or economists as "money guessers." He noted on my Facebook page,
...the numbers on meteorology demonstrate that our 'guesses' are getting better at the rate of 1 day of skill per decade. Let's see the economists match that rate.
His point is that the profession is pretty good. Let's stop allowing meteorologists to be the "Rodney Dangerfield" of science as Mike Smith writes.
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9e9b5fdd18584f9dd44c9e58df1bf0af | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/03/01/march-1st-is-the-start-of-spring-sort-of-how-meteorological-and-astronomical-seasons-differ/ | Why March 1st Is The Start Of Spring (Sort Of) | Why March 1st Is The Start Of Spring (Sort Of)
If you love spring you can claim it on March 1st. Sort of....March 1st is the start of meteorological spring. I know, I know, you may be saying, but Dr. Shepherd spring starts on March 20, 2016. Ah yes, that is astronomical spring. What's the difference between meteorological spring and astronomical spring?
It's actually pretty simple. The astronomical seasons are related to position of the Earth relative to the Sun. Meteorological seasons are related to the annual temperature cycle. As I discussed recently in a Forbes discussion of why we have Leap Year, these factors determine seasons:
the Earth's rotation around the Sun Earth's axial tilt (23.5 degrees but it can vary. Review Milankovitch Cycles) the Sun's position over the equator
Seasonal variation of the declination angle. Courtesy of the UCAR Comet Program. Retrieved from NOAA... [+] GOES page.
The Equinoxes (vernal-spring, autumnal-fall) are the times when the Sun is directly over the equator. The Solstices (summer, winter) are when the Sun is farthest from the equator (to the North or South). The declination angle is the angle between an imaginary line connecting Earth-Sun centers and the equator. The declination angle varies as a function of season. It is 0 degrees at the Equinoxes and 23.45 degrees on the Solstices. By the way, if you are interested in knowing the declination angle at a given location and time, the University of Southern California has a pretty cool declination calculator here. NASA also has an education site with great diagrams.
Declination angle geometry. Courtesy of NOAA ESRL.
It is useful to remember that the Southern (austral) Hemisphere experiences the opposite season from the Northern (boreal) Hemisphere (e.g., at the time of writing, it is meteorological autumn and astronomical summer).
The Earth actually travels around the Sun in 365.24 days. This requires the Leap Year adjustment to keep calendars synchronized. This variance also causes the dates for the equinoxes and solstices to vary each year. The elliptical shape of Earth's orbit also causes seasonal length to vary by about 89-93 days according to NOAA. If you are a meteorologist or climatologist, this creates problems when trying to establish consistent climate statistics. This is why the concept of meteorological seasons emerged.
According to the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (the center formerly known as the National Climatic Data Center or NCDC) website,
Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. These seasons were created for meteorological observing and forecasting purposes, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are.
So there you go. And by the way, did fans of the musician Prince catch my little nod to him? Enjoy your spring. Meteorologically speaking....
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efaa8268c180f8a9ef7bfda3264e8efd | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/04/13/why-do-tv-meteorologists-quit/ | Why Do TV Meteorologists Quit? | Why Do TV Meteorologists Quit?
(David Scull/BloombergNews)
Broadcast meteorologists have one of the most identifiable careers even though they represent less than 10% of the American Meteorological Society's (AMS) membership. A convergence of recent events has me pondering why someone in such an "appealing" career would walk away from it.
This month a young television meteorologist apparently took his life. Meteorologist Eric Sorenson posted a very stirring blog empathizing with Russell Bird and framing how his situation was very similar to many young broadcast meteorologists: in an unfamiliar place, low-paying starter job, and few local friends. This is a side of the glamorous TV world the public doesn't see. Women in broadcast meteorology have unique challenges also. Did you hear about the recent plight of a female broadcast meteorologist having to fend off harassing comments about being pregnant?
I served as President of the AMS, and I am also the director an Atmospheric Sciences Program at a major university. I am proud to say that many of our students have gone on to successful careers in broadcast meteorology. However, I also know from talking with colleagues around the nation that there is a "hidden" pipeline out of the field too. I was curious why.
A recurring theme that emerges is rapid changes in the broadcast meteorology industry. In local TV markets, the meteorologist is expected to do the on-air forecast, prepare the forecasts, monitor station social media sites, respond to viewers, do public appearances, pet cute puppies, and so on (while earning increasingly less salary). One of my former students, Andrew Phillips, now working in state government told me,
More shows are getting added, but hiring doesn't necessarily reflect that. The staff isn't growing as quickly as shows are being added so people are working longer hours. I decided it wasn't the lifestyle we wanted. My wife (formerly in the business) and I thought about never having evenings together during the week, missing future family events (kid's sports, dinner, etc) and didn't want that.
I spoke with a former mid-career broadcast meteorologist who wished to remain anonymous. He noted,
As a young meteorologists, there is an excitement about being a weather weenie. Being able to forecast the weather and convey that on television. At a young age, the thrill of the job may out weigh the low starting pay, long or weekend hours, and isolation. As we age, family and other priorities become more important.
Kelly Savoie of the American Meteorological Society affirms this perspective. She works closely with broadcast meteorologists seeking the AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist Seal . She told me in an email,
I have noticed (from calls I get and what I hear at conferences) that some of the more established broadcast meteorologists in their late 30’s and 40’s are leaving the TV business to pursue either other meteorology positions or different careers all together. This is probably because they have families and want a more stable job with better hours.
However, anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a toll being taken on younger meteorologists like Russell Bird too but the data may not detect it because there is such an eager pipeline of students itching to get into the field. Jessica Stumpf was once in that pipeline. She worked in 3 states during her career and now works in emergency management.
I didn't love the business and I think if you're going to continue in that business you have to love it....I love meteorology, the great friends I made, and the occasional times where I felt like I truly made a difference. However, the pay wasn't good. There's no way I could continue on and pay my student loans. You're expected to look like a million bucks while being paid very low........... Like many in the business, I received rude and offensive comments from viewers......The bottom line was, I was so unhappy. It was affecting my quality of life so I said I'm done.
In my discussion with TV meteorology colleagues at all levels, particularly women, I have heard horror stories about consultants suggesting ways that clothing, hair, and other aspects of appearance should be worn. As a reminder, refresh yourself on the Rhonda Lee situation here.
The mid-career broadcaster I mentioned earlier told me that the changes have really accelerated in the past 10 years,
There is more corporate top-down decision making on the look and feel of the weather show as large media companies own multiple stations. It feels like there is less local control on the presentation. In radio, big media consolidation already has one person doing voice over forecasts for multiple markets. Is TV next with this business model?
The "weather" block is still one of the more lucrative (from an advertising perspective) segments of a newscasts. People tune in to watch the weather. This same colleague even speculates that the concept of TV Meteorologist may look very different in 10 to 20 years with all of the consolidation, multiple market voice overs, and demographic changes.
Now look, I am not trying to paint a picture to stay away from broadcast field. When you see what colleagues like Maureen McCann, Greg Fishel, James Spann, Jim Cantore, Janice Huff and numerous others do for the public, it is apparent how valuable broadcast meteorologists are. Heck, I host a show on the Weather Channel myself. However, there are some "red flags" that forecast bad times ahead if some things are not addressed.
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1ae6e876bd230aff2ebd41f5d96b304c | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/06/18/beautiful-and-scary-at-once-the-science-of-mammatus-clouds/ | Beautiful And Scary At Once: The Science Of Mammatus Clouds | Beautiful And Scary At Once: The Science Of Mammatus Clouds
What are those oddly beautiful but scary clouds that hang down from thunderclouds at times?.......Likely mammatus clouds. They generate a ton of excitement on social media and are somewhat of a meteorological mystery.
Mammatus clouds form over Wrigley Field during the fifth inning of a baseball game between the... [+] Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers Monday, June 22, 2015, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
If you live in the Great Plains, there is a decent chance that you have seen them. On June 17th 2016, many people in the Atlanta, Georgia area experienced them too. Numerous photos appeared on Twitter from around the area. When family friend Amy Schnupp shared this photo taken in Gwinnett County, a suburb east of Atlanta, she told me,
They look amazing in person. We kept saying they looked like little ornaments or balls in the sky. I love them!
Mammatus clouds on June 17th, 2016 in Gwinnett County, Georgia. Photo Courtesy of Amy Schnupp.
By the way, take a look at this video of the type of weather happening at my house (not far from where Mrs. Schnupp took this photography). As an atmospheric scientists familiar with these clouds, I find that the public is very much in awe of these clouds, and some people fear them. So what are they?
The American Meteorological Society's Glossary of Meteorology offers this formal definition,
Mammatus: Hanging protuberances, like pouches, on the undersurface of a cloud.
There are numerous terms for mammatus clouds: mamma, mammatocumulus, or mammory cloud. The word is actually derived from the Latin "mamma," which means breast or udder. A more common usage of the root word in society is "mammogram." Mammatus are typically associated with thunderstorms (often the anvil) but contrary to common thinking, they are not necessarily a "smoking gun" indicator of tornado, large hail or significant wind gusts. The National Weather Service Online School for Weather (a great resource if you are not familiar with it) describes mammatus formation this way:
Clouds with pouch-like downward extensions associated with very active cumulonimbus in latter stages of development. Mammatus occurs when air from the cloud layer descends into the clear air below and the cloud droplets evaporate, cooling down the air and making it descend even faster. Some of the cloud is dragged down, creating the appearance.
This description is somewhat limited in my view. Scientists note that a similar process can occur when ice crystals fall out of the anvil of a cumulonimbus cloud and sublimate (transition directly from ice to water vapor). Like evaporation, sublimation also cools the air. Cooler, denser air causes the air to descend more rapidly. Scholarly research suggests that sublimation is very important (more on that later).
Structure of a Supercell cumulonimbus cloud with Mammatus. Courtesy of NOAA NSSL.
Some have described mammatus as upside down clouds. While I understand that description, the formation of mammatus is more complicated. Dr. David Schultz and colleagues published possibly the most extensive review on mammatus in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. They actually reviewed several hypothesized mechanism including: anvil subsidence, sub-cloud sublimation/evaporation processes, detrainment at cloud base, radiative processes, Kelvin-Helmoltz instability/other instabilities, and hydrometeor fallout from the cloud. Noted mesoscale meteorologist Dr. Chuck Doswell has also posited the notion of double diffusive convection, a concept more common to oceanography. The basic premise is that a fluid has constituents that contribute to buoyancy in counter ways.
Kanak and colleagues extended Schultz's work with a set of numerical modeling simulations to evaluate three proposed mammatus causation mechanisms: detrainment at cloud base, hydrometeor fallout from cloud base, and sublimation below cloud base. They concluded that cloud-base detrainment instability (essential the mixing of warm, dry air and cool, saturate air at the base of the cloud) is a necessary condition but is not sufficient alone. They also found that mammatus can form irrespective of fallout but not without the sublimation processes. Their analysis of weather balloon data (soundings) in mammatus environments reveals that the layer below the cloud was typically dry adiabatic (contains relatively little water) and characterized by low relative humidity. These are just fancy ways of saying the process of sublimation can happen.
Ultimately the body of scholarly research suggests that formation, size, shape, and scale of mammatus depends on sub-cloud moisture, its stability, and the terminal velocities of the hydrometeors (droplets, ice crystals) in the mammatus cloud. I also take away from reading the scientific literature that there is still no comprehensive or conclusive theory yet, but we may be close.
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292f86c9ec8f9204557e72874f7ee27c | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/06/20/water-vapor-vs-carbon-dioxide-which-wins-in-climate-warming/?sh=685f578d3238 | Water Vapor Vs Carbon Dioxide: Which 'Wins' In Climate Warming? | Water Vapor Vs Carbon Dioxide: Which 'Wins' In Climate Warming?
The fact that water vapor is the dominant absorber in the Earth's greenhouse effect can lead to a flawed narrative that anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is not important nor a significant driver of climate warming. I have always felt that narrative is like concluding nitrogen (78% of the atmosphere) is more important to human respiration than oxygen (21%) because it is more abundant. Such oversimplifications can be very misleading. It is worth laying out the science of whether water vapor or CO2 "wins" in climate warming.
The American Chemical Society's ACS Climate Science Toolkit cuts right to the chase in an excellent analysis on its website,
...water vapor is the largest contributor to the Earth’s greenhouse effect...However, water vapor does not control the Earth’s temperature, but is instead controlled by the temperature...If there had been no increase in the amounts of non-condensable greenhouse gases (like carbon dioxide), the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would not have changed with all other variables remaining the same. The addition of the non-condensable gases causes the temperature to increase and this leads to an increase in water vapor that further increases the temperature. This is an example of a positive feedback effect. The warming due to increasing non-condensable gases causes more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, which adds to the effect of the non-condensables.
The atmosphere is self-limiting in terms of water vapor. If a parcel or volume of air becomes saturated as it is cools, a cloud forms. Professor Adam Sobel of Columbia University provides a nice analogy,
Saying water vapor is a more important greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide is like saying the amplifier in a sound system is more important than the volume dial for producing the sound. It's true, in a literal sense, but very misleading. CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases are the volume dial on the climate, and the water vapor amplifies the warming that they produce.
Texas A&M's Andrew Dessler's work on the importance of water vapor in climate warming also discusses these complex interactions and amplifications.
Greenhouse effect: Part 1, incoming shortwave radiation. Source: Barb Deluisi, NOAA.
Let's step back and review the Greenhouse Effect. Ironically, the most abundant gases (nitrogen and oxygen) exhibit virtually no warming affect. A small collection of minor gases representing about 0.43% of the atmospheric constituency allows us to live on Earth. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) include: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulfur hexaflouride. If teaching Atmospheric Physics or Radiative Transfer (staples of good meteorology/climate curricula), I would refer to them as selective absorbers. Selective absorbers absorb and emit energy at preferential wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum. For example, in the stratosphere, ozone is a selective absorber of ultraviolet (UV) radiation (thank goodness for us). GHGs selectively absorb in the infrared portion of the spectrum. A refresher of blackbody radiation, the foundation of the statement that "good absorbers are good emitters" can be found here.
Greenhouse effect. Part 2, Absorption and emission of infrared radiation. Source: Barb Deluisi,... [+] NOAA.
The sun drives the climate system, but I often see its influence misrepresented due to lack of understanding of the complexity of the climate's radiative system. The sun's energy is mostly shortwave radiation (visible and UV). Much of it gets reflected or absorbed by the clouds, atmosphere, or Earth's surface. The absorbed energy is emitted from the surface as longwave radiation or infrared radiation (heat). Wien's Law says that objects at different temperatures emit at different wavelengths. The Earth is cooler than the sun so emits at longer wavelengths (i.e., there is an inverse relationship between temperature and maximum wavelength of emission). The longwave radiation from Earth is emitted to space or absorbed by GHGs. GHGs reemit the longwave energy to space, other gases, or back to Earth. The astute reader will note that the atmospheric "greenhouse" effect is really a series of absorption-emission processes rather than just heat entrapment (as a real greenhouse does).
According to NASA, water vapor accounts for about 50+% of the absorption. Carbon dioxide accounts for 20%. Clouds also account for roughly 25%. Atmospheric physics theory dating back to Arrhenius (1895) and Callendar (1938), respectively, have pointed out how relatively small contributions of CO2 can warm the atmosphere. Yet, many mistakenly latch on to the fact that water vapor is dominant and not the aforementioned feedback processes. Dr. Gavin Schmidt writes,
...as temperature rises, the maximum sustainable water vapor concentration increases by about 7% per degree Celsius. Clouds too depend on temperature, pressure, convection and water vapor amounts. So a change in CO2 that affects the greenhouse effect will also change the water vapor and the clouds. Thus, the total greenhouse effect after a change in CO2 needs to account for the consequent changes in the other components as well. If, for instance, CO2 concentrations are doubled, then the absorption would increase by 4 W/m2, but once the water vapor and clouds react, the absorption increases by almost 20 W/m2 — demonstrating that (in the GISS climate model, at least) the "feedbacks" are amplifying the effects of the initial radiative forcing from CO2 alone.
People are often surprised to learn that moist air is less dense than dry air or that deserts can actually get cold at times. Both of these simple assertions are wrong. This article cautions readers that oversimplification is very dangerous.
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5d3d389ab485116ff35a22e923d4df8f | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-changes-for-3-u-s-weather-models-are-coming/ | Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming | Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that major changes are coming to three of its weather prediction models. To the weather community and enthusiasts this is a big deal. However these changes also have impacts for a society which depends on weather forecasts for day-to-day operations, agriculture, aviation, national security, emergency response and more.
Improved resolution of newly announced NOAA weather forecast model. Courtesy of NOAA.
It is well known that the European model consistently has outperformed the United States model. The NOAA GFS model is still a world-class model and often outperforms the European model in certain cases as I explained in Forbes. Social media can make you think there is "Model World War 3," but there is actually quite a bit of collaboration between NOAA and the European center. The "Euro" model assimilates quite a bit of data from the U.S. The aforementioned Forbes article also explains the different approaches and why the European model has managed to stay ahead.
I know, I know a recent article showed that the GFS is 4th in performance based on anomaly correlation scores. It is important to understand that 1st to 4th is not a "top Indy car racer versus me on my bicycle" gap. The difference between 1st and 4th is relative. The 500-hPa anomaly correlation, which quantifies the skill of the 500-hPa geopotential height forecast, is long-standing too. It measures correlation of anomalies of specific forecasts and values that verify with a given reference (e.g. climatological values). My former Florida State University professor and modeling pioneer, Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, published a paper discussing the history of using this metric for assessing model performance. By now you may be saying, "reel it in Dr. Shepherd this is meteorological jargon." Look at it this way, the 500-hPa map (some may be more familiar with 500 millibars (mb) rather than 500 hectoPascal) reveals the location of troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure. It shows meteorological information from weather balloons, satellites and other datasets. At given points the "height" where atmospheric pressure is 500 hPa is plotted then contoured. In the map below that level is found at 5,930 meters near Atlanta, Georgia but at 5,790 meters just north of Minnesota. This produces a snapshot of the atmospheric fluid's wave, temperature, jet stream and vorticity patterns governing sensible weather.
Ok, let's get to model updates.
500 hPa (mb) chart. Source: NOAA
Global Forecast System (GFS): In a press release this week NOAA announced that it would be developing a new global weather model to replace the current GFS model. It will also be called the GFS and likely arrives in 2019. The following quote from press release cites National Weather Service Director Dr. Louis Uccellini,
“Using our powerful supercomputers, our new dynamic core which drives the model, and the newest modeling techniques, we are poised to develop and run a more accurate and reliable global model that is used as a basis for all weather forecasts in the U.S.,” said Louis W. Uccellini, director, NOAA’s National Weather Service......The new dynamic core, Finite-Volume on a Cubed-Sphere (FV3), was developed by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. The FV3 core brings a new level of accuracy and numeric efficiency to the model’s representation of atmospheric processes such as air motions. This makes possible simulations of clouds and storms, at resolutions not yet used in an operational global model.
Model resolution is very important. Think cell phone camera. It has a certain number of mega-pixels. More mega-pixels mean greater picture resolution. In weather modeling finer resolution (in time or space) means that you can resolve weather processes that may be smeared out or not captured at coarser resolution. For example, if the model has grid spacing every 15 km, it is not going to "resolve" a cumulus cloud.
Dr. Brian Etherton of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory adds some insight on resolution. He told me in an email,
the reason GFS as it is now cannot go to a higher resolution is it’s grid. The latitude/longitude grid results in a large number of gridpoints in the polar regions. FV3, being a ‘cubed sphere’, can scale better.
NOAA's goals for FV3 are,
a unified system to improve forecast accuracy beyond 8 to 10 days, better model forecasts of hurricane track and intensity, and the extension of weather forecasting through 14 days and for extreme events, 3 to 4 weeks in advance.
American Meteorological Society President Dr. Fred Carr, a renowned expert in this subject and former head of University of Oklahoma's great Meteorology department told me in an email,
NOAA NCEP’s Modeling Advisory Committee was asked by the head of the National Weather Service to look at the various processes on the table. The overwhelming majority of the committee supported the decision to select GFDL’s FV3 model for the next GFS dynamic core. However, it is very important that NCEP/NWS/NOAA work with the external modeling community to create a global community model to which all can contribute.
RAP and HRRR: In a more low-key announcement NOAA also announced updates to the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Analysis and Forecast System. Some of the key changes, effective in August, according to NOAA include,
...expanded computational (for RAP) domain which will now include Hawaii.......Both the RAP and HRRR will use an updated version of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis code. Refinements were made to the GSI to improve the assimilation of surface observations, soil moisture adjustment, and three-dimensional cloud and precipitation hydrometeors. In addition, the HRRR will start using the ensemble/hybrid data assimilation....Other analysis changes include: (Assimilating radial wind and mesonet data, Applying PBL-based pseudo-innovations for 2-meter temperature, Changing the cloud-hydrometeor assimilation to avoid METAR-based cloud building when satellite data shows clear skies at all times of day, and Introducing direct use of 2-meter temperature and dew point model diagnostics in the GSI.
I am sure there will be supporters and critics to the new GFS. I will let them have those scholarly discussions. These discussions and the constant push by the Europeans and now private sector force everyone to improve. We benefit in the end.
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fd294c587e5e7a6e76000e469a494ea8 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/01/19/3-reasons-scientists-are-confident-2016-was-the-warmest-year-on-record/?utm_campaign=sprinklrSciForbes&utm_content=783315543&utm_medium=social&utm_source=TWITTER | 3 Reasons Scientists Are Confident 2016 Was The Warmest Year On Record | 3 Reasons Scientists Are Confident 2016 Was The Warmest Year On Record
Unfortunately I have to start this discussion noting that 2016 was the warmest year on record. It took the title from the 2015, which took over for 2014. Ethan Siegel provides an excellent commentary on the this dubious and worrisome streak. A NASA press release pointed out "Earth's 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, according to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)." Sixteen of the warmest 17 warmest years on record have been observed since 2001. A recent independent study confirmed that NOAA's assertion that there had been no "pause" in warming since 1998 was correct.
With this new record, there will undoubtedly be a few voice that raise questions about the data or point out things that are obvious to any well-trained climate scientists (the climate changes naturally, the Earth has been warmer in the past, cities can bias the data and so forth). All of these things have been explained by climatologists but live on as "zombie theories." So how do we know 2016 was really the warmest year on record?
Record warm years. Source: NASA Earth Observatory/Joshua Stevens
Consilience: Two of the leading agencies that monitor Earth's climate, NASA and NOAA, stated that their data confirmed the record. Both agencies use slightly different methodologies. NASA uses 6,300 surface temperature measurements from weather stations, ships and buoys. They also use temperature data from polar research locations. Their analysis also accounts for spacing of the stations and urban heat island effects that climatologists have long understood. They compare their results to a baseline period of 1951 to 1980. NOAA uses a different baseline period and considers polar contributions in a different way. Even with such differences, both agencies arrived at similar conclusions about 2016.
More importantly, the record is not just confirmed by U.S. science agencies or surface-based datasets. The United Kingdom's Met Office was consistent with NASA data and showed an increase over 2015. The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) also crowned 2016 the warmest year on record based on its data analysis and techniques. Heck, even the University of Alabama-Huntsville, which uses satellite based estimates, conceded that 2016 was the warmest year in its nearly 40-year database. This is significant because there has been an ongoing dispute between research groups that use surface and satellite-based methods for temperature measurement. Multiple threads of evidence from different approaches arriving at similar conclusions is the very essence of consilience.
The margins: NOAA's estimate for 2015 was an average global temperature of 58.69 degrees (14.84 degrees Celsius). This is 0.07 degrees (0.04 Celsius) larger than the previous record year. NASA's numbers, which includes a methodology that takes into account more of the Arctic region, was 0.22 degrees (0.12 Celsius) warmer. If you have followed the Arctic in 2016, you know that the Arctic was particularly warm and the North Pole set a couple of records. NASA's Gavin Schmidt told Livescience that the Arctic was over 7 degrees F warmer than pre-industrial periods. I wrote about the anomalous 2016 polar warming in a recent Forbes discussion.
The margin observed by NOAA is one of the largest the agency has observed between consecutive record years according to Deke Arndt, Chief of the Climate Monitoring Branch at NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information. In a conference call with reporters Arndt noted, "it is larger than the typical margin."
The contributors: Climate scientists clearly articulated that human or anthropogenic factors were significant contributors to the 2016 warming (and in recent decades in general). NASA's press release points out,
The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere.
However, natural processes certainly also contributed. The strong 2015 El Niño dissipated in early 2016 but scientists estimate that about 0.2 degrees of the record anomaly was related to El Niño. It is well-established that El Niño years can amplify warming. What makes the 2016 record rather remarkable is that it was primarily a La Niña year.
ENSO and warming trends. Source: NOAA
Record sea ice deficits likely played a role also and may even be self-amplifying. A NOAA press release reports,
The average Arctic sea ice extent for the year was 3.92 million square miles, the smallest annual average since record-keeping began in 1979...The average Antarctic sea ice extent for the year was 4.31 million square miles, the second smallest annual average since record-keeping began in 1979.
The lack of sea ice means less of the sun's energy is reflected in polar regions. If the energy is not reflected, it is absorbed and further amplifies the warming. This process describes the well-known ice-albedo feedback.
Ice albedo feedbacks. Source: NASA
The warming record is not some abstract concept. It has real implications for agriculture, national security, public health, weather hazards, and other "kitchen table" issues.
It is not the time to cut climate observations or hinder the work of scientists. A hospital would not pull the plug on the IV or heart monitoring machine as it was monitoring a patient. Our patient is Earth and robust, long-term surface, ocean and satellite-based measurements are critical.
For more information on how measurements are taken to arrive at such records, this video is a useful resource.
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a4d4fc4b1c4a6c1150394e42d36b120c | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/03/04/four-ways-noaa-benefits-your-life-today/ | Four Ways NOAA Benefits Your Life Today | Four Ways NOAA Benefits Your Life Today
Ironically I was marveling at breathtaking new GOES-16 weather satellite data that has started to flow to National Weather Service forecasters when I heard about proposed deep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) budget. The Washington Post broke this story yesterday, and it literally sent shockwaves through many scientific, stakeholder, and industry communities. NOAA is the lead agency for the nation's weather forecasts, weather satellites, fisheries, ocean services and climate monitoring. If you rely on TV weather forecasts, use a weather app, eat fish, enjoy boating or claim your status as an Earthling, these cuts potentially have implications for you. It is early in the process so it is beyond the scope of my intentions here to get into the politics. Congress will have its own view of NOAA's budget, and the "sausage-making" of the federal budget cycle will begin. I have argued many times before as a former President of the American Meteorological Society that weather and climate information should be prioritized as a "national and homeland security asset." I even laid out a pathway for collaboration between the weather community and the new administration in the Washington Post shortly after the election. I noted in that piece that the weather and climate community stood ready to work with leaders as none these challenges are easy. However, any weakening of our technological, scientific, and human capabilities related to weather and climate places American lives and property at risk. Here are four ways NOAA benefits you right now (and there are far more).
National Weather Service Director Dr. Louis Uccellini describing new GOES-16 weather satellite... [+] information. (Source: National Weather Service via the Director's Twitter account). National Weather Service via NWS Director's Twitter Account
Weather Satellites keep us from flying blind. I am willing to bet that you cannot fathom a situation in which the United States would be hit by a hurricane without warning today. This is exactly what happened in 1900 when a major hurricane slammed into Galveston, Texas killing 6,000 to 12,000 people. It is still considered the worse natural disaster in U.S. history. Thankfully, a fleet of weather satellites provide continuous monitoring of weather. In fact, the United States moved the needle forward with the recent launch of the GOES-16 weather satellite. The National Weather Service Director, Dr. Louis Uccellini, tweeted on Friday,
Thrilled to enter a new era of weather observation w/ GOES16 real-time data reaching NWS forecasters. Data is preliminary but revolutionary!
He is right, and I described why in a previous Forbes piece. According to figures in the Washington Post, the White House proposal eliminates $513 million, or 22 percent of NOAA's satellite division or National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service. This division also houses critical climate data at the National Center for Environmental Information. This data is vital for understanding how our weather and climate are changing. Numerous reports have cautioned about looming gaps in weather satellite coverage as our fleet of low-earth and geosynchronous orbiting satellites ages. Weather satellites provide a critical service for the public, the military, industry, and other stakeholders. They are like smoke detectors in our homes. You know they are there but really do not pay them any attention until your house is on fire. For the safety of our families, we replace the batteries when they age. This is pretty simple to do for a smoke detector, but large satellite programs are different. They require sustained and consistent funding for research and development, industry contracts, and support. The critical role of our weather satellite program is why the U.S. Government Accountability Office placed mitigation of potential weather satellite gaps on its "high risk issues" list. In recent months I got the sense that the country was finally getting a grip on this challenge with the launch of GOES 16, private sector engagement and other changes. Disruption of our weather satellite programs now is not wise. And oh by the way, some satellite data finds its way into the U.S. and European weather forecast models too.
Aurora and the city lights from the Suomi NPP satellite Source: NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Weather and climate advances don't just appear out of thin air. There is a chance that you are reading this on a smartphone. This smartphone and other advances that we enjoy today like GPS, life-saving medical procedures, and precision agricultural methods did not just appear, "poof," out of thin air. Such advances come from years of sustained research and development. Advances in weather forecasting are the same way. Though people often joke about weather forecasts being wrong, we are in an era in which forecasts are more accurate than ever. Mike Smith's "The Invisible Successes of Meteorology" is an outstanding article in the Washington Post. When is the last time you recall an airplane crashing because of wind shear? Advances in weather radar technology have been critical in reducing this threat. Hurricane track forecasts today in the 3-5 day range are as good as 1-2 day forecasts several decades ago. Conditions that produced tornadic storms are often predicted well in advance and minimize loss of life. Our current capabilities have emerged because of research on satellite systems, dual-polarization radar (now deployed nationwide for improved severe weather and precipitation observations), and models (NOAA recently announced a significant generational upgrade of its main weather modeling system and has enabled many short-term models like the HRRR). The proposed White House budget would slash NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research by 26%. Since I am a meteorologist, I haven't even spoken about the advances on the ocean side that are important to society. Research cuts compromise our ability to sustain and develop new capabilities in the future. Even 1-4 year lags or reductions can cause long-term damage because of erosion of technical skills, scientific expertise, and industry contracts. Much of the research and satellite programs within NOAA are supported by private companies so those industries and its employees are also impacted. A Tweet by UCLA's Dr. Daniel Swain sums is perfect,
A reminder: virtually all we know about Earth’s atmosphere & oceans comes from sustained decades of government-funded scientific research
GOES-16 image of the moon and Earth. Source: NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Coastal communities face unique challenges. The highly successful Sea Grant program is slated for elimination under the White House proposal. At least 33 states will be affected if this happens because Sea Grant has offices in them and supports coastal stakeholder engagement. Sea Grant's website notes,
Sea Grant’s mission is to provide integrated research, communication, education, extension and legal programs to coastal communities that lead to the responsible use of the nation’s ocean, coastal and Great Lakes resources through informed personal, policy and management decisions.
This is exactly the type of effort that benefits taxpayers. Such programs connect the science to local communities and provide solutions ranging from how to deal with changes in production of a particular type of seafood to helping towns address "sunny day flooding" or saltwater intrusion into its drinking supply. This connectivity also shows communities that science is not some "villain with an agenda" but a resource for them.
Most of us eat fish. NOAA is also home to the National Marine Fisheries Service. They face a 5% budget cut. While modest compared to the aforementioned cuts, it bears watching. Their stated mission on their website is
stewardship of the nation's ocean resources and their habitat. We provide vital services for the nation: productive and sustainable fisheries, safe sources of seafood, the recovery and conservation of protected resources, and healthy ecosystems—all backed by sound science and an ecosystem-based approach to management.
It is not clear how proposed cuts would impact the Service, but I included it so that you have a better picture of NOAA's portfolio.
The National Weather Service also faces a 5% budget cut. The National Weather Service is one of the biggest "bangs for the buck" in the federal service. They provide life-saving information every day for the public, aviation, the military, farmers, and virtually every other industry. It is also the home of the National Hurricane Center and the Storm Prediction Center. And yes, there is a good chance that your weather App or local weather person uses model information, observations, radar images, satellites information, and watch/warning information from them too. Many National Weather Service offices are currently short-staffed and if the cuts are in personnel that could compromise operations. This news story from NBC 5 Dallas-Ft. Worth explores why the public is placed at risk by short-staffed National Weather Service offices during severe weather.
NOAA has generally enjoyed bipartisan support. I hope this continues as our leaders grapple with admittedly real fiscal challenges and the safety of our citizens. It costs, by some estimates, 5 cents per person per day to fund NOAA, and there is huge return on that investment.
School of fish. Source: NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administratin
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3fc776f528ffbc46880cb8df45476b51 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/06/05/a-pit-spotted-on-mars-has-scientists-scratching-their-heads/ | A Pit Spotted On Mars Has Scientists Scratching Their Heads | A Pit Spotted On Mars Has Scientists Scratching Their Heads
I normally write about the weather and climate of Earth. I write about Earth's climate because as the American Meteorological Society reminds us in its statement on climate change
Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting for our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life
As a former NASA scientist, I am also fascinated by the weather and climate of our neighboring planets. There are many lessons about Earth's climate provided by them. This weekend my attention was caught by a stunning new image of Mars released by NASA. As you look at the image, the obvious question is, "what is that large pit or depression?"
A mysterious pit recently observed on Martian surface in its Southern Hemisphere. (Source: NASA... [+] JPL/Cal Tech/U. of Arizona). For details on scale click this hyperlink and latitude/longitude. NASA JPL/CalTech
Before boring deeper into this question (and yes I was trying to be cute...."boring into the pit"....get it? Okay, I digress), I want to explore some of the other features in the image. The image is provided by NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). According to NASA's website, MRO was launched in 2005 to
search for evidence that water persisted on the surface of Mars for a long period of time. While other Mars missions have shown that water flowed across the surface in Mars' history, it remains a mystery whether water was ever around long enough to provide a habitat for life.
MRO has one of the largest cameras ever to fly on a planetary mission, which enables unprecedented looks at features on the surface of the planet (like the dust devil below). And if you want to check out something really cool, click this link for weekly weather reports and images from Mars provided by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on MRO. You are welcome!
NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter capturing a dust devil in 2012. Source: NASA GSFC/SVS NASA SVS
Like Earth, Mars has polar ice caps. Unlike Earth, the polar ice caps on Mars are a combination of carbon dioxide and water ice. The University of Arizona's Phoenix Mars Mission website is a great source of information on Martian polar caps. The website notes
Carbon dioxide is an atmospheric gas made of one carbon atom and two oxygen atoms. In its frozen, solid state, carbon dioxide is known as dry ice. Rather than melting into liquid carbon dioxide, like water ice melts into liquid water, dry ice sublimates directly into carbon dioxide gas when the temperature reaches about -79 degrees C (-110 degrees F).
This is where things take a very different turn than Earth. During Martian summer, the carbon dioxide ice undergoes the process of sublimation (solid phase to vapor). During the winter, it becomes a solid again. Fall cloud cover starts the winter season ice cap growth.
The HI-RISE instrument on MRO took the image above during late summer season in the Martian Southern Hemisphere. The "swiss cheese" looking pattern shows the residual of bare surface and "dry ice." The low sun angle allows MRO to detect very detailed views of the surface topography and that strange "pit." One possibility is the pit is an impact crater. Things impact Mars, Earth, and the moon all of the time. A recent paper in Nature Geosciences documents some interesting details of the bombardment history of Mars. Another theory is that the depression may be a collapse pit.
There is no conclusive answer at this point on what it may be according to Lisa May, formerly Lead Program Executive for the Mars Exploration Program at NASA Headquarters. May is the founder and CEO of Murphian Consulting LLC. She provides planning, execution, and systems engineering services to clients ranging from tech startups to the UAE Space Agency. She messaged me the context of these fascinating missions
Right now, there are six operating spacecraft in orbit around Mars—two from Europe, one from India, and three NASA ones. NASA’s most recent orbiter, MAVEN, was launched in 2013 to learn how Mars lost its atmosphere, and the European Space Agency’s Trace Gas Orbiter is currently aerobraking into its final orbit where it will study Mars’ atmospheric composition.
May also added the MRO has been sending stunning high-resolution images of Mars for over a decade, but she is quick to point out another part of its mission
Besides supporting Mars science, the images are used to select landing sites for rovers and landers.
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35d6362f2cfe15dd1e588d062005898b | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/07/17/four-emerging-misconceptions-on-social-media-about-the-upcoming-great-american-eclipse/ | Four Emerging Misconceptions On Social Media About The Upcoming Great American Eclipse | Four Emerging Misconceptions On Social Media About The Upcoming Great American Eclipse
A rare total solar eclipse will happen in the United States on August 21st, 2017. It will be a spectacle to see and the word is getting out to the public. Inevitably with science, misconceptions and inaccurate statements are emerging on social media. As a climate scientist, I am used to the public shaping its own understanding of science based on personal experiences or interpretations. People believe that deserts do not get cold or that climate change is not real because it snows in the winter, but I digress. It is important for scientists to help increase science literacy using "teachable moments." I thought that it would be useful to clear up some of the emerging misconceptions about the Great American Eclipse that I noticed on my own social media pages. I suspect that they represent a sample of thoughts by others.
Path of totality and what you will see. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
If you are not in the path of totality you will not experience anything. I recently pondered on social media about what local school systems in North Georgia and the Atlanta area would do with the students since peak darkness will be around 2:30 or so. This is the time that many schools in our area dismiss students. Given that most of the diagrams that I have seen in media outlets and websites show the path of 100% totality (as below), it is natural that some people might interpret that as meaning something is only going to happen in path of totality. I prefer the graphic shown above because it conveys much more information on what someone is likely to see given their position. I am a professor at the University of Georgia and we are hosting a massive viewing party in iconic Sanford Stadium. This map shows what we can expect in a region of 99.1% totality in Athens, Georgia. It should be noted that I captured a snapshot in time near Georgia, but I strongly recommend the full animation at this website developed by former colleagues of mine at NASA. As pointed out by colleagues at Great American Eclipse, viewing the full animation will prevent any misinterpretation of the snapshot image.
Path of U.S. eclipse. National Aeronautics and Space Administration
We have seen eclipses before recently, what's the big deal? Another common interpretation is that we have eclipses like this fairly regularly so why are scientists and the media making such a big deal about this one. According to NASA's website describing the August event
a total eclipse will cross the entire country, coast-to-coast, for the first time since 1918
For the United States, the total eclipse will begin in Lincoln City, Oregon and end somewhere around Charleston, South Carolina. Many have told me that they remember an eclipse happening a few years ago or when they were in school. Perhaps, they did but it was different from what we are about to experience. The NASA diagrams below show the types of eclipses that the United States and other parts of the world have experienced over the period 1981 to 2000 and 2000 to 2020, respectively. As you can see, there has been no total eclipse in the United States during that time period except the upcoming event. The year 1979 was the last time a total solar eclipse was visible from any part of the contiguous United States, but the path of totality could really only be viewed from Canada and northwestern states. In 1991, parts of Hawaii were near the path of totality of a total eclipse as well. If you click this link, it is an excellent resource for identifying when the next total eclipse path may be near you.
Eclipses (1981 to 2000) National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Eclipses (2000 to 2020) National Aeronautics and Space Administration
There are different types of solar eclipses. NASA is obviously an excellent source for information on how they differ. According to the website
A total solar eclipse is only visible from a small area on Earth. The people who see the total eclipse are in the center of the moon’s shadow when it hits Earth. The sky becomes very dark, as if it were night. For a total eclipse to take place, the sun, moon, and Earth must be in a direct line....The second type of solar eclipse is a partial solar eclipse. This happens when the sun, moon, and Earth are not exactly lined up. The sun appears to have a dark shadow on only a small part of its surface....The third type is an annular (ANN you ler) solar eclipse. An annular eclipse happens when the moon is farthest from Earth. Because the moon is farther away from Earth, it seems smaller. It does not block the entire view of the sun. The moon in front of the sun looks like a dark disk on top of a larger sun-colored disk. This creates what looks like a ring around the moon.
If it is cloudy or raining, we will not experience anything. Many people will be traveling to the path of totality hoping for that once in a lifetime experience. Hotels are overbooked along the path, and I am sure the astute observer has considered the possibility of clouds. In a previous Forbes piece, I shared a useful tool for determining the probability of cloud cover where you may be. However, if it is overcast or cloudy near the path of totality, observers are still going to experience "something." In fact, the eclipse2017.org website states
If the sky is completely overcast, it will get VERY dark – pitch black, in fact, to the point where it will be tricky to walk around...If there are broken or scattered clouds, then you will have to hope that the Sun is not behind one of them at the time of totality.....If the Sun is behind a cloud during totality, you will still experience the temperature drop, and the sunset glow on the horizon – but this is not how you want to see a total eclipse!
Even if it is cloudy and you are near the eclipse path, something odd and cool will happen during the middle of the day.
Oh, cool, we can make our own viewing glasses. One of the most important messages to convey is not to look directly at the eclipse with your naked eyes. You should only use sanctioned or certified eclipse-viewing glasses or some other type of solar viewer. NASA's website is very clear
The only safe way to look directly at the uneclipsed or partially eclipsed sun is through special-purpose solar filters, such as “eclipse glasses” (example shown at left) or hand-held solar viewers. Homemade filters or ordinary sunglasses, even very dark ones, are not safe for looking at the sun.......Do not look at the uneclipsed or partially eclipsed sun through an unfiltered camera, telescope, binoculars, or another optical device. Similarly, do not look at the sun through a camera, a telescope, binoculars, or any other optical device while using your eclipse glasses or hand-held solar viewer — the concentrated solar rays will damage the filter and enter your eye(s), causing serious injury.
There are various indirect alternatives like the Pinhole Camera or Viewer described here.
Enjoy the eclipse safely.
Updated at 5:13 pm
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86032122b57d6f804c2a4367ca4f4447 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/17/no-3d-movie-glasses-are-not-like-eclipse-glasses-heres-why/ | No, You Can't Use 3D Movie Glasses As Eclipse Glasses - Here's Why | No, You Can't Use 3D Movie Glasses As Eclipse Glasses - Here's Why
If some asked me what the hot, "must have" product of the moment was, I would answer "eclipse glasses." With the Great American Eclipse only a few days away, I am encouraged by the fact that people are now paying attention and seeking glasses to view the celestial shadow act on August 21st. One of the questions that I have received, as a scientist, more than a few times is whether eclipse glasses are the same as 3-D movie glasses used in theaters. The answer is "no."
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 11: Warby Parker employee Karolyna Landin poses with a pair of solar eclipse... [+] glasses that the eyeglass store is giving out for free on August 11, 2017 in New York City. To view the upcoming total solar eclipse on August 21 eye protection is essential. The designer eyeglass store expects to give out thousands of the glasses before the event. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Eclipse glasses are an important part of the viewing experience for the Great American Eclipse, and the predictable last minute rush has been somewhat amusing. I have received emails, messages, and calls about glasses because of the viewing event that I helped organize at the University of Georgia. NASA and other responsible eclipse-minded organizations have sounded the alarm about the dangers of viewing the eclipse without proper equipment. NASA's website points out,
It’s common sense not to stare directly at the Sun with your naked eyes or risk damaging your vision, and that advice holds true for a partially eclipsed Sun. But, only with special-purpose solar filters, such as eclipse glasses or a handheld solar viewer, you can safely look directly at the Sun. NASA recommends that people who plan to view the eclipse should check the safety authenticity of viewing glasses to ensure they meet basic proper safety viewing standards.
NASA has recommended that viewing glasses and other solar viewers meet the ISO 12312-2 certification standard. A list of reputable vendors for the glasses can be found at the American Astronomical Society (AAS) website. You might be wondering, "what's so special about the eclipse glasses, and how are they different than 3-D movie glasses? They sure look similar to me."
Solar eclipse glasses are much darker than standard glasses or sunglasses. How dark? Most sources say that they are about 100,000 times darker. However, it is their composition that truly stands out. According to information published in The Orange County Register, the glasses are made from a black polymer (a resin infused with carbon particles). This composition blocks almost all visible light and all of the ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Standard sunglasses do a pretty good job with UV radiation but only filters less than 20 percent of visible light.
So what can happen? Solar retinopathy can happen. This happens when bright light saturates the retina, which is located at the back of the eyeball. According to Livescience.com,
The retina is home to the light-sensing cells that make vision possible. When they're overstimulated by sunlight, they release a flood of communication chemicals that can damage the retina. This damage is often painless, so people don't realize what they're doing to their vision.
Solar retinopathy can be temporary or permanent, and the symptoms range from loss of vision to distorted vision according to Preventblindness.org.
Eclipse glasses are designed to prevent saturation of the retina with light while looking at an eclipse. 3-D movie glasses work in a completely different way. To explain how they work, I introduce the concept of stereoscopy. In a nutshell, with a 3D movie, the projector sends two images to the same screen and then the glasses are used to separate them and provide depth or the third dimension. Linear Polarized Stereoscopy is a common way to achieve the "3D" effect. Mental Floss describes it this way,
Two images are projected through polarizers of two different orientations, typically 45 and 135 degrees relative to the horizon. The projected images are then filtered using polarizer films in the lenses of your glasses en route to your eyes. In this way, one image is excluded from your left eye while the other image is excluded from your right.
Circularly polarized techniques have also increasingly complemented the linear polarization technique in recent years. In this technique, according to the same Mental Floss article,
One of the images is projected using light waves that trace out a left-handed spiral, and the other using light that traces out a right-handed spiral. Each lens contains a quarter wave plate, which is a passive device that transforms the two counter-spiraling waves into two perpendicular linear waves.
At the end of that process, standard linear polarization separates the images from each eye, respectively.
An employee hands 3-D glasses to visitors prior to a performance at Mickey's PhilharMagic at Walt... [+] Disney Co. Hong Kong Disneyland Park, operated by Hong Kong International Theme Parks Ltd., in Hong Kong, China, on Friday, Aug. 7, 2015. Hong Kong is scheduled to release second-quarter gross domestic product figures on Aug. 14. Photographer: Justin Chin/Bloomberg
The key point here is that the lenses in 3D glasses have no properties that will protect your eyes while viewing a solar eclipse. By the same token, there is nothing about the carbonized lenses of eclipse glasses that will support the concepts of stereoscopy. My friend and colleague Dave Jones of Stormcenter Communications, Inc is working with NASA on eclipse outreach and broadcasts, he nails it on social media,
Please remind your viewers every day until the eclipse on Monday that they MUST wear eclipse glasses to look at the sun directly...or use pinhole projection to view the eclipse. I am hearing that some people think they do not need eclipse glasses if they are not in totality. Sunglasses do not work so do not ease up on this advice. This is valid for everywhere in North America.
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a71220728a4ae59078337a7304ddb9a7 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/08/26/hurricane-harvey-is-a-one-two-punch-and-the-two-rain-is-the-bigger-problem/ | Hurricane Harvey Is A 'One-Two' Punch And The 'Two' (Rain) Is The Bigger Problem | Hurricane Harvey Is A 'One-Two' Punch And The 'Two' (Rain) Is The Bigger Problem
I was planning to watch the coverage of Hurricane Harvey today and help where I can with media interviews. However, I was seeing a disturbing narrative evolve in social and traditional media about Hurricane Harvey. There was a dangerous focus, in my opinion, on the storm "weakening to only a Category 1." While that is good news and should be reported, I fear that it provides a false sense of security from the looming and likely greater threat. This is an exceptional event that will possibly be discussed with the likes of Sandy or Katrina because the "rainfall and flooding" part of the story is just beginning.
Rainfall potential over the next 7 days from Harvey NOAA NHC
Hurricane Harvey made landfall (twice) Friday evening east of Corpus Christi, Texas as a Category 4 storm. Part of me was actually nervous about the rapid strengthening to a Category 3/4 storm because I know the immediate danger that this type of storm can bring in terms of storm surge, wind, and tornadoes. Hurricane Harvey is only the fourth category 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the United States since 1970 according to Colorado State University hurricane expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach. The other category 4 (or higher) storms were Hugo, Andrew and Charley.
The other part of my nervousness was this tendency for the public and media to latch onto the inevitable fact that the storm will "weaken" from a major hurricane to a weaker one or tropical storm. Therein is the problem. As devastating as a landfalling major hurricane is, many of us have always been more concerned about the days of rainfall. It is why my colleagues have to be very careful about how Harvey's evolution is being communicated. We cannot cover this storm just as a "landfalling hurricane." It needs to be covered as a "lingering, unprecedented flood event." The excellent Tropical Tidbits website provides access to the weather models. If you visit the site, you can see for yourself how the models keep Harvey around for almost a week. The National Hurricane Center public advisory on the morning of Saturday Aug. 26 warned,
Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through NEXT Wednesday...Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life threatening flooding.
In this case, the "two" in the cliche "one-two punch" is the the sustained threat. I fielded media interviews throughout the day Friday and at times, I sensed that the reporters really were not grasping this fact. I also got this sense as I monitored comments from friends in social media. It is a challenge because five-to-seven days worth of rain from a tropical storm spinning over Texas is not as telegenic or "sexy" as an iconic category 4 hurricane making landfall. I get it. I do enough media to understand the "story." However, the historic rainfall potential is jaw-dropping and a direct threat to the human life. Since Friday evening, some parts of coastal Texas have already received over 1 foot of rainfall, and we still have almost a week of this to go.
Vehicles sit in traffic during evacuation ahead of Hurricane Harvey in Galveston, Texas, U.S., on... [+] Friday, Aug. 25, 2017. Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg
Dr. Gina Eosco, a social scientist with Cherokee Nation Strategic Programs, is an expert on communication and perception related to weather information. She says information on impacts and track information are more accessible, but she has concerns about rainfall messaging,
When I looked for rain graphics the search took longer than expected. I also observed that (many) Twitter feed only shared the track. NO rain. The weather community shared/discussed the rain, but did we do it too much internally? Did we push it externally? I think the answer is yes. Rain simply isn't as sexy. It rains all the time...But not like this! I also feel we have to determine better ways of conveying amounts of rain to make it more concrete. I don't have easy answers yet, but we're repeatedly seeing this as a challenge...Louisiana last year, Matthew, now Harvey.
I agree with Dr. Eosco, and it is why I tried to provoke discussion in Forbes last year about a future Flood Scale similar to the Saffir-Simpson or Enhanced Fujita Scale.
The other challenge is the "meh, we get floods all of the time" mentality. No, no you have not. As I have written before in Forbes, humans often have a difficult time placing exceptional events (likely no experience with) within the proper context of their actual experiences (normal rain and flood events). Indeed, Houston floods often, but the creeping nature of five-to-seven days of rainfall culminating in 2 to 4 feet of rainfall may be hard to grasp. This fact and optimism bias ("I know there is danger in driving through that flooded street, but I will be OK this time") foster dangerous outcomes.
My colleague Bill Read is the former director of the National Hurricane Center. He resides in Houston and has been monitoring Harvey. He told me,
Here's the challenge. Local officials were emphasizing that people should NOT evacuate for the heavy rain threat, and I think for good reason. Because of our topography, feet of rain would put millions of people's homes at risk. Big floods over the past 20 years have extended outside the 100 year flood plain and in some cases outside the 500 year event. The "where and how fast the rain will fall" won't be known except in the short term so giving specific flood warning as to who is impacted is not possible this far in advance. Exactly who would you tell to leave? As the Rita evacuation (should have) taught us, you cannot efficiently move 2 million people from Houston area.
Bill Read also made the point that deaths from recent floods in Houston were all people who drove into flooded roadways. He ended his statement to me by saying, "it is a bad situation with no easy answer." I will close by noting that the impact of Harvey is really just beginning and will not be fully realized until a week or so from now. Stay alert and safe.
NWS radar on Saturday Morning in Corpus Christi NOAA and NWS
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1ae5a6fb01654172270900f4fdad4206 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/10/12/you-are-not-hallucinating-a-hurricane-is-headed-to-ireland/ | You Are Not Hallucinating -- A Hurricane Is Headed To Ireland | You Are Not Hallucinating -- A Hurricane Is Headed To Ireland
Don't worry. You are not losing it. Ireland is in the "cone" of uncertainty in that map below. Hurricane Ophelia is the 10th consecutive hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin this year. According to University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy, the last time ten consecutive storms became a hurricane was 1893. While a very interesting factoid, the "elephant in the room" is that Ophelia is headed to Ireland. It is rare, but not unprecedented.
NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission view of Ophelia using space-borne radar. NASA
Hurricane Ophelia is a healthy looking storm, and it is still over relatively warm waters (more on that later). The key messages from NOAA's National Hurricane Center were articulated in the 11 am AST forecast discussion
Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom.. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas, as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the exact, magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.
For updated cones and discussions, you can click this link.
5 pm AST Forecast for Hurricane Ophelia (October 12th) NOAA NHC
I am still recovering from the fact that I just read a National Hurricane Center advisory providing information for the United Kingdom, but I digress. This message and information issued at the 5 pm update basically says that the storm will transition from a tropical system to something more similar to a typical mid-latitude storm. In other words, it will start deriving its energy for air mass differences rather than evaporated ocean water. Hurricane Sandy did something similar in 2012. This is a great "101" site on hurricanes transitioning to extratropical systems.
On its journey to the United Kingdom, Ophelia is likely to brush the Azores. According to The Weather Channel, this is fairly rare. On their website, they point out
Only 15 hurricanes have passed within 200 nautical miles of the Azores since 1851, according to NOAA's historical hurricane database. All of those occurred in August or September, except for Hurricane Fran in October 1973 and Hurricane Alex in January 2016, which made landfall shortly after weakening to a tropical storm.
A natural question to ask: How often does the United Kingdom get hit by a hurricane (Disclaimer: Ophelia will likely be post-tropical by the time it arrives but this is meteorological minutia for the moment)? Most Atlantic storms track westward toward the Caribbean Islands or the United States. They ultimately dissipate, make landfall, or curve out to sea becoming "fish storms" as we say in my profession. In 2011, the remnants of Hurricane Katia brought 80 mph winds to the British Isles. I consulted Brett Israel's discussion at Livescience.com for answers. He writes
From 1851 to 2010, only 10 extratropical storms, typically the tail ends of tropical cyclones, have hit within 200 miles (322 kilometers) of Ireland....Hurricane Debbie was the only tropical hurricane to make landfall in that area, clipping the far northwest of the British Isles in 1961.
That is pretty rare folks. From 2011, there have been a few additional transitioning storms near Ireland (Gonzalo (2014), Bertha (2014) and Gert (2017)) according to Brian Mcnoldy.
Remnants of Hurricane Kate in the British Isles (2011). Naval Research Lab
At one point, Ophelia was targeting the Iberian Peninsula. You know the place where Portugal and Spain are. According to Kevin Loria writing in Business Insider
Only two known storms have hit the Iberian Peninsula — one in 1842, and one in 2005. The most recent was a tropical depression that was previously Hurricane Vince.
A 2013 study published in Geophysical Research Letters suggests that climate warming will bring more hurricanes to Europe. Using a climate model with very high resolution, the researchers found that increasing Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures would extend eastward. This would provide a "fuel-laden" path for storms moving back toward Europe. Typically such storms die or go through extratropical transition, however, the additional energy from warm waters on "steroids" may provide an extra boost. I have been particularly surprised that Hurricane Ophelia has held together, and waters are warm enough to support its tropical requirements (see below). A team of the world's best hurricane experts published a study in Nature in 2014 noting that hurricanes were starting to strengthen further poleward (away from the tropics). They hypothesized that this was related to changes in potential intensity and wind shear structure in the atmosphere.
North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. October 11th NOAA
I encourage our friends in the United Kingdom to keep an eye on Ophelia. In life, things that are not common can be particularly hazardous.
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7216dcbf7ac5d22d4ab8a69360c87f0c | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/02/07/new-orangestem-weather-intelligence-platform-squeezes-value-out-of-its-data/ | New OrangeSTEM Weather Intelligence Platform 'Squeezes' Value Out Of Its Data | New OrangeSTEM Weather Intelligence Platform 'Squeezes' Value Out Of Its Data
Weather data is more valuable than just planning your picnic or whether your son's baseball practice is going to be a washout. Most facets of our society are weather-sensitive, and I would even argue weather-dependent. I challenge you to think of virtually any major component of the world's energy, transportation, food, water, or national security enterprise and find a way that weather information is not important. This weekFlorida-based WeatherSTEM launched a new initiative called OrangeSTEM, a statewide weather intelligence platform built for the state of Florida. What exactly does that mean, and is it a glimpse at the future?
WeatherSTEM CEO Ed Mansouri discusses OrangeSTEM Ed Mansouri
A 2014 U.S. Commerce Department report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the median valuation of weather forecasts per household was roughly $286 per year or 31.5 billion in annual valuation. A summary by the Economic and Statistics Administration concluded from the report that
The sum of all federal spending on meteorological operations and research was $3.4 billion in the same year, and the private sector spent an additional $1.7 billion on weather forecasting, for a total of private and public spending of about $5.1 billion. In other words, the valuation people placed on the weather forecasts they consumed was 6.2 times as high as the total expenditure on producing forecasts.
The report also highlights that many end-users and the public are unaware that most TV stations, media companies, and private ventures provide value-added services based on federal weather data, models, satellites, and radars. A recent scholarly paper found that inclusion of weather data in a sales forecast model produced fewer sales forecast errors. The researchers, writing in the journal Production and Operation Management, found reductions to be on the order of 8.6% to 12.2%, and this reduction was as large as 50.6% on summer weekends.
On February 7th, WeatherSTEM announced its OrangeSTEM initiative at the Florida Emergency Preparedness Association Conference in St Augustine. The company promised to deliver a platform and mobile app by March 1st. According to WeatherSTEM's website, it is "a platform (that) consumes live information to create and deliver interactive activities and assessments. The platform combines data from weather instruments, agricultural probes, Web cameras and other sensors to create immersive science education experiences and an introduction to "Big Data" and computer programming." The University of Georgia, where I serve as director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program, has several WeatherSTEM observing platforms so I was immediately intrigued when I saw the announcement about OrangeSTEM. The OrangeSTEM information website says
OrangeSTEM is a web, mobile, and social media platform free to the public and designed especially for citizens of Florida. It is powered by OrangeSTEM Sites that host modern weather stations and environmental cameras that continuously monitor atmospheric and hydrologic conditions and upload measurements and images to the OrangeSTEM platform. Any public entity or private business can become an OrangeSTEM host site (even yours!).In addition, data provided by our partners flows into the OrangeSTEM platform. This data includes forecasts, satellite and radar, lightning proximity, National Weather Service Alerts, and so much more.
Ok, so far it sounds like a weather observation network. Those exist. Where does the weather intelligence come into play? I reached out to WeatherSTEM CEO Edward Mansouri for more insight on why this system is different.
Q: Why do you feel OrangeSTEM is needed now?
Mansouri: From a business perspective, I was involved in the growth of a statewide education platform in the State of Florida called the Florida Virtual School. When I started working with them, they had a few thousand students. Now it is a ubiquitous part of the state's day to day K-12 education in all 67 counties. Having brought WeatherSTEM to all 67 of Florida's counties, I've found there is a dramatic difference from one county to the next as far as their investment in weather technology. I feel a statewide, consolidated approach may level the playing field across the state and hopefully expand the opportunities for enhanced weather awareness and alerting as well as weather literacy through WeatherSTEM's educational components. Just as Florida Virtual School became a state-funded, state-mandated platform for the State of Florida, I hope
for the same to happen for OrangeSTEM down the road.
Q: Is this extending your reach beyond educational communities? Mansouri: While our original focus for WeatherSTEM was and still is education, most of our business opportunities have come from city and county municipalities who were looking to enhance their situational awareness capabilities are far as severe weather occurring in their counties was concerned. We are now doing business with many county Emergency Operations Centers and in many counties, we are helping foster partnerships between the school system and the EOCs. Our motto for WeatherSTEM has become "An educated public is a safer public" and we feel WeatherSTEM is a platform that will not only alert the public of a hazardous weather situation, but will educate them about it too. This naturally sets the stage for us to expand outside of education. Q: What do you ultimately hope OrangeSTEM leads to? Mansuori: My vision for OrangeSTEM is to have a product that we can deploy at the state level. We want WeatherSTEM to become a Weather Intelligence Platform (WIP) that is uniquely suited and customized for that state's specific weather challenges as well as its approach to both weather preparedness and education from the state level. We hope that we do a good enough job with this that we could attract state-appropriated funding as well as corporate sponsorship. I have already reserved and trademarked the name PeachSTEM to give you a hint as to where we would be looking to go after Florida if OrangeSTEM is successful. Q: Is there anything similar to what you are doing? Mansouri: There are many state-managed "Mesonets" in existence that all seem to be scoped to a particular industry or objective. There is the FAWN and GAWN in Florida and Georgia that is an agricultural initiative. There is the Oklahoma Mesonet which seems to be the Gold Standard by which many statewide mesonets are measured. But as far as a focused statewide platform that is managed by a commercial entity, I am not aware of similar efforts being spearheaded by the big commercial weather players such as Earth Networks, DTN, etc. They certainly have customers that pay them to deploy weather monitoring hardware and software over specific geographical domains but I'm not aware of anything specifically at the state-level - though my research into this hasn't been exhaustive. We have recently partnered with Earth Networks - the innovators behind WeatherBug. They are now reselling WeatherSTEM to schools outside Florida and they're working with us to help support our efforts with OrangeSTEM in Florida. Mansouri's final comment placed this platform in context, There are mesonets that are geared toward agriculture, health/safety, research, severe weather awareness but OrangeSTEM's is the first mesonet to my knowledge whose primary stated objective is enhanced weather literacy. But it will also seek to cover what we hope to be an unprecedented scope into agriculture, health and safety, social media, and athletics. OrangeSTEM and the citrus energy Ed Mansouri
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adb522aa0168c5e4f655660046e34a70 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/04/13/climate-change-or-global-warming-three-reasons-not-to-be-distracted-by-the-name-game/ | Climate Change Or Global Warming? Three Reasons Not To Be Distracted By The Name Game | Climate Change Or Global Warming? Three Reasons Not To Be Distracted By The Name Game
Social media is an interesting landscape of opinions, confirmation bias (consuming information that supports your beliefs), and expressions of the Dunning-Kruger Effect, a psychological term published in the literature that argues that people think they know more about topics than they actually do. This week two very worrisome but important climate change (or global warming) related studies were highlighted in the media. One study suggested an eastward shift in the well-known climate boundary near the 100-degree longitude line in the United States. This could have major implications for U.S. agriculture; productivity. The other study, actually two of them, revealed a slow down in a major ocean circulation that affects weather-climate patterns. In discussing both on Twitter, a few inevitable "Didn't they change the name to climate change because global warming wasn't happening" tweets appeared. While this is an oft-stated zombie theory, one that lives on though refuted by scientists, it is worth noting three reasons why you should not be distracted by this tactic.
2018 February Global Temperature Anomalies NASA GISS
Global warming is just one part of climate change. Before I go further, let's get this out of the way. Yes, climate changes naturally and it always has. Virtually every climate scientist knows this. Milankovitch cycles (changes in the Earth's orbit, tilt, and wobble), solar variations, and other natural processes have affected and will continue to affect our climate system. However, the science clearly shows that we now have a "human steroid" on top of the naturally-varying climate system. It is important to remember that it is not "either/or" it is "and." For example, grass grows naturally and "fertilized" soil will change how it grows. Global warming is one aspect of climate change in the same way that a fever is one aspect of the flu. A USGS website notes,
Although people tend to use these terms interchangeably, global warming is just one aspect of climate change. “Global warming” refers to the rise in global temperatures due mainly to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. “Climate change” refers to the increasing changes in the measures of climate over a long period of time – including precipitation, temperature, and wind patterns.
This is also consistent with a discussion on the Years of Living Dangerously documentary website,
Climate change or global climate change is generally considered a “more scientifically accurate term,” than global warming, as NASA explained in 2008, in part because “Changes to precipitation patterns and sea level are likely to have much greater human impact than the higher temperatures alone.” When you consider all of the impacts scientists have observed in recent decades—including the acidifying ocean, worsening wildfires, and more intense deluges—climate scientists are likely to continue favoring the term climate change.
2017 $1 billion weather-climate disasters NOAA
The terminology shift has political ties. It is well-known by those that have done the research that President George W. Bush's administration preferred the term "climate change" over "global warming." I was an Earth system scientist at NASA during this administration so I am very familiar with how things were unfolding at the time. A political strategist wrote a memo in 2002 urging Republicans to use the term "climate change" because it was less scary than "global warming." Here are some of the key statements in that memo by Mr. Lutz as published in The Guardian,
The scientific debate is closing [against us] but not yet closed. There is still a window of opportunity to challenge the science............Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly.......Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate.....(the environment) is probably the single issue on which Republicans in general - and President Bush in particular - are most vulnerable
The memo also urged other tactics to misinform or sway certain segments of the public. Such memos are why I urge scientists to engage because of we do not, people skilled in messaging will gladly fill the gap on behalf of clients or persuasive intent.
Public, media, and scientific usage varies. As Jason Samenow, in his excellent treatment of this topic in response to statements by President Trump, recently wrote in the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang, the National Academies of Sciences noted a preference for the term "climate change" because it was more scientifically-accurate. It has nothing to do with any "warming pauses" or lack of evidence of warming. Samenow writes,
“The contentious phrase global warming, first used by United Press International in 1969, seems to be undergoing a certain cooling; contrariwise, the more temperate phrase climate change is getting hot,” the New York Times’ William Safire wrote in his On Language column in 2005.
Dr. Theresa Andersen, a former doctoral student at the University of Georgia, conducted perhaps one of the first scholarly analyses of the terms and published it in IEEE Earthzine five years ago. She found that the media preferentially uses the term "global warming" while scientific researchers tend to use "climate change." She argued that "climate change is arguably the more meaningful term because it facilitates communication between scientists, the media, and the general public and it conveys that the range of risks associated with a warming climate are not limited to temperature alone." However, even today, the public probably still uses the term "global warming."
There are some that have argued for the use of the term "climate disruption." Whatever it is called, do not fall for the attempt to discredit the science because of name... It is just a name game (and a deflection).
Use of terms by media Earthzine/Theresa Andersen
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8901524ec8ecf72129da178380750a85 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/09/23/new-film-series-says-let-science-speak-and-humanizes-scientists/ | New Film Series Says 'Let Science Speak' And Humanizes Scientists | New Film Series Says 'Let Science Speak' And Humanizes Scientists
This week I attended the 6th Annual HBCU Climate Change Conference in New Orleans. As I listened to legendary scientist Dr. Robert Bullard discuss forces against him in the environmental justice field over the years, something strongly resonated. He said something along the lines of "if they are not coming after you, you are not doing something right." I notice in environmental and climate narratives that attacks or harassment increase as messaging becomes more effective. In social media, people are armed with their "googled" information, anonymous keyboard courage, or agendas to suppress science. Federal scientists have been restricted from attending conferences. EPA websites are being edited with different wording (see this link for a great article in Time Magazine). New policies at local, state, and federal levels undermine science or try to "shut it up". A new short film series debuted this week at the Tribeca TV Festival called Let Science Speak. The series features 6 leading environmental scientists but is more about humanity than science.
The scientists of Let Science Speak LetScienceSpeak.com
Let Science Speak is a beautiful set of films that I had the privilege to be a part of, and the original score was contributed by Patrick Stump of the popular band Fall Out Boy. The executive producer Christine Arena told Rolling Stone magazine,
It’s not just scientists who lose when science is suppressed. The health, safety and security of every citizen is also at risk....That is why we aim to call America’s attention to the stakes, while portraying scientists as unsung heroes that people will want to support and rally around.
In no way do I consider myself a hero, but I do want to circle back to Professor Bullard's comment because it cut to the core of something that I think about often. My colleagues (including the many beyond the 5 in the film) and I often endure twitter attacks, evil messaging and so forth. I am asked why we put up with it. The answer for me is simple and personal. I care about my kids, humanity and particularly marginalized populations that carry disproportionately high burdens from extreme events and changing climate.
In fact, the theme of the 6th HBCU Climate Change conference was powerful, "Fighting For Our Lives" as Professor Bullard explains in this blog. I have personally overcome verbal darts, family sacrifices and ignorance-filled assumptions because of my race all of my life. The stuff I face for addressing climate change is trivial compared to life as an African American boy raised by a single mother in a small southern town. Within the divisive backdrop of society right now, I worry more about my kids, particularly my son. Even though they are perceived to have advantages over my upbringing, they are still seen through hateful eyes of some and at the mercy of a planet under stress. For me, participating in the film was an obligation. I was blessed with knowledge of science and a talent for translating it. Scientists must fill the gaps, or those skilled in messaging or misinformation will.
Dr. Jon Foley, featured in the film, is former Director of the California Academy of Science and Senior Scholar there. He is also one of the most cited environmental scientists in the world. Dr. Foley believes we must connect science to the heart of humanity as much as the intellectual mind. For Dr. Alan Townsend, Provost and environmental scientist at Colorado College, his story is about how science saved literally his daughter's life and how that serves as a catalyst for his crusade to let science speak. Dr. Jacqueline Gill knows firsthand about the turbulent intersection of science and "political" perspective. She tells the story of her interactions with a conservative father and how there's no "staying in your lane" when humanity's future is at stake. Dr. Dawn Wright, Chief Scientist at ESRI, leads a life of adventure that has taken her to places most human will never go. She speaks of the essential role of oceans and why attacks on research jeopardize our future. She also makes one of the more thought-provoking statements in the film. Why do we know more about Mars and the moon than we do our own ocean? Dr. Katharine Hayhoe is a climate scientist at Texas Tech University who personifies brilliant climate messaging and being victimized by attacks. Yet, her story is one that challenges that notion that science and faith cannot co-exist. She is a Christian and speaks about why that guides how her science speaks.
Noted environmental journalist Andy Revkin sums up the film series best in a Tweet,
Wonderful to lead discussion at the #TribecaTVFestival on #LetScienceSpeak, particularly given the amazing "cast" and non-partisan, deeply human message on the enormous value of inquiry in service of a sustainable journey for all.
The short 5-6 minute films can be view at LetScienceSpeak.com. You can also follow the effort on Facebook, Instagram (@LetSciSpeak), and Twitter (@LetSciSpeak). Christine Arena and her amazing team deserve a major shout-out for their vision on this effort. We choose to speak.
Let Science Speak The @LetSciSpeak Twitter page
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e3c6cd37afb90d9a6a00870f3a79ca04 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/10/10/what-are-hot-towers-you-here-meteorologists-talk-about-in-hurricane-michael/ | What Are These 'Hot Towers' In Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Michael? | What Are These 'Hot Towers' In Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Michael?
It is 4:38 am here in the eastern United States, and I could not sleep. My 25 years of experience as a research meteorologist placed an uncomfortable feeling in my stomach as I monitored Hurricane Michael before going to bed. The hurricane rapidly intensified to a dangerous Category 4 storm. It is tracking toward the Florida Panhandle with plenty of warm water in its path before a Wednesday afternoon landfall. The National Weather Service (NWS) Tallahassee Office tweeted a warning that clearly articulates the dire nature of Hurricane Michael. The message reads,
Unprecedented Event Unfolding...We searched the historical database for category 4 hurricanes that have made landfall in the Florida panhandle and Big Bend. This map says it all - it's BLANK - this situation has NEVER happened before.
The statement is true for the era of meteorological record keeping, but you get the point. Many meteorologists have been hinting that this storm had the potential of becoming a major hurricane. I wrote in Forbes on the reasons why on Monday. Other colleagues like Dr. Ryan Maue were sounding the alarm for a likely major storm. The National Hurricane Center discussions throughout the week also explicitly mentioned likely intensification to a major storm. However, the explosive growth to Category 4 has been meteorologically fascinating and tragically scary at the same time. The words "hot towers" have appeared in several discussions about Hurricane Michael. What are they and is this some new "buzzword?"
Satellite imagery of Hurricane Michael with a ring of lightning around the eyewall early Wednesday... [+] morning. Phillip Pappin via Twitter/NOAA GOES-16
The answer is "no." Before I discuss hot towers and their role in the intensification of Hurricane Michael, it is important to provide an update on the storm. The 4:00 am CDT National Hurricane Center update has the hurricane at 140 mph sustained winds and moving north at 13 mph. Specific wording in the public advisory warns:
Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall...Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)...The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).
Dr. Phillipe Pappin is a National Research Council Associate postdoctoral scientist at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and one of the best young atmospheric scientists around. He tweeted a satellite image (above) noting that the full ring of lightning around the eyewall probably indicates further strengthening. Pappin also tweeted something about hot towers on October 8th. He said, "the structure of #Hurricane #Michael continues to organize today. The storm is becoming axis-symmetric with dual hot towers recirculating around the vortex." I noticed a several colleagues mentioning the term.
Dual hot towers rotating around Hurricane Michael early in the week. NOAA/Phillip Pappin
The term "hot towers" has been around for decades. My former NASA colleague and legendary tropical meteorologist Dr. Joanne Simpson discovered hot towers in the 1950s using radar imagery and photographs. According to a NASA press release in 2004,
When these tall clouds, called "hot towers," are present, they double the chance that a hurricane will gather strength within hours...Warm air rises, and these towers are called "hot" because they rise very high due to a large amount of heat, called latent heat. Water vapor releases this latent heat as it condenses into liquid.
In a 2004 paper published in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters, NASA researchers extended Dr. Simpson's pioneering work. They found that a tropical cyclone with a hot tower is two times more likely to intensify in the next six hours as compared to a cyclone without one. In that study, a hot tower was defined as "an extremely tall convective tower as a convective cell with a 20 dBZ reflectivity signal that reaches an altitude of at least 14.5 km." They used novel data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, which had a first-of-its-kind precipitation radar and other microwave instruments. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission is currently in orbit and has similar capabilities. I served as Deputy Project Scientist for GPM while at NASA.
Hot towers in Hurricane Bonnie as seen by the NASA TRMM satellite NASA
Concerning Hurricane Michael, Dr. Pappin noticed the role of hot towers in the dramatic intensification of the storm. He told me in a message,
It seems like these features have been what has been driving a lot of the lightning we’ve seen in the inner core with Michael. The hot towers are associated with strong vertical motion that results in mixed phase hydrometers interacting and creating charge by bumping into each other.
Even as Hurricane Michael approaches land, Pappin pointed out that several rotating meso-vorticies, so called "vortical hot towers," were evident within the eyewall. The storm is on final approach and is very strong. In fact, it is so strong that I fully expect it to be at hurricane strength well into Georgia after landfall. The latest National Hurricane Center track forecast (below) also points this out. I urge everyone in the affected Florida panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia to treat this storm as if your life was at risk. I hate to sound that dire, but it would be irresponsible of me to soft peddle this threat.
Track forecast for Hurricane Michael as of 4 am CDT on October 10th, 2018 NOAA NHC
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94dad355fc8f07bde1baad5db3d72c6b | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/11/19/why-a-new-study-says-scientists-should-use-twitter/ | Why A New Study Says Scientists Should Use Twitter | Why A New Study Says Scientists Should Use Twitter
I am a scientist and professor that matriculates in many circles. Though I am a tenured professor at a major university, I often feel like I am having as much impact outside the ivory tower as I do within it. I am also a scientist that embraces social media. I know, I know. It can be quite annoying and even treacherous at times. Driving can do, but most of us have to do it from time to time. There is so much "apparent expertise" from Twitter Tech, Blog State University, and Wikipedia University that "seeing becomes believing." Without careful discernment, the public, media, or policymakers can make the mistake of consuming "noise" rather than "signal" with the same level of authority as peer reviewed studies or credible scientific assessments. My 11-year old son could theoretically Tweet his new findings on a new concoction to cure headaches. Would you consume it without FDA approval (Exactly)? Even with the "wild west of science Twitter," a new study finds that scientists should embrace and use it.
Cell phone and social media U.S. Digital Registry (digital.gov)
One of the most frustrating things for me is hearing a colleague say, "I don't use that new stuff like Twitter." I am going to write a little breaking news here: It's NOT new. Twitter has been around since 2006. A new study published in Canada's first and only multidisciplinary journal, Facets, makes a compelling case that the modern generation of scientific scholars should use social media The 2018 study is entitled, "Scientists on Twitter: Preaching to the choir or singing from the rooftops?"
The goal of the study was to determine whether Twitter allows scientists to promote their findings primarily to other scientific colleagues (Inreach), or does it provide a platform to reach much broader audiences like the public, stakeholders, and the media (Outreach). Isabelle M. Côtéimcote of Simon Fraser University and Emily S. Darling of the University of Toronto authored the study. They analyzed Twitter followers of over 100 faculty members in evolutionary biology and ecology. According to the abstract of the study,
their followers are, on average, predominantly (∼55%) other scientists. However, beyond a threshold of ∼1000 followers, the range of follower types became more diverse and included research and educational organizations, media, members of the public with no stated association with science, and a small number of decision-makers.
The punchline is that when a scientist had more than 1000 followers they exponentially increase their reach and broaden the spread of what is perceived to be credible scientific information. The authors argue that scientists should spend time investing in developing a social media presence.
I too have lamented that if scientists are not filling the gaps with our knowledge and expertise, people with less expertise or other objectives will happily fill the gaps left behind. Many scientists are trained to conduct research, publish papers, and present at conferences. This is what I call the "academic treadmill." These are all valuable. In fact, they are the currency of academia and rigorous scientific inquiry. However, I do not believe they should be the only currency going forward.
Dr. Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, recently conducted an informal analysis of climate scientists on Twitter. He tweeted on October 27th, 2018:
Based on @KHayhoe's list of all the scientists who study climate issues, here is the distribution of the number of followers that scientists have here on Twitter. Most have a few to several hundred followers, while a few scientists have tens of thousands.
He also found that the most popular accounts tweet more frequently. It is clear from his graphic below that the vast majority of scientists probably have what would be consider an "Inreach" following while a select few have a much broader "Outreach" following.
Climate scientists on Twitter. Robert Rohde on Twitter
While some scholars that question the value of of social media, a 2014 interview with Professor Jonathan Eisen of University of California, Davis echoes the findings of the 2018 study. In "To Tweet or Not To Tweet," Eisen told Science magazine that a good social media presence is important:
It’s hard to get a job. It’s hard to get people to look at your CV. It’s hard to get people to look at what you do in your papers...(social media) better baseline for people to find out about your work
This is 2018. Science is critical to our society, yet increasingly the intent or value of science is questioned. One way to help stem the tide is for scientists to make themselves and their results accessible. We have to get off the ivory tower treadmill and try a new machine from time to time.
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af78c7c3d90942091782e394bf9e1bdb | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/12/17/the-meteorology-of-life-threatening-waves-along-the-u-s-west-coast/ | The Meteorology Of Life-Threatening Waves Along The U.S. West Coast | The Meteorology Of Life-Threatening Waves Along The U.S. West Coast
It this Tweet over the weekend by the National Weather Service-Bay Area did not get your attention then I am not sure what will:
HIGH SURF WARNING continues in effect along the coast from Sonoma County through Monterey County 9 AM Sun to 9 PM Mon. STAY WELL BACK FROM THE OCEAN OR RISK CERTAIN DEATH.
This is one of the more direct notices that I have noticed from the National Weather Service, and they used capitalization. High Surf Warnings remain in effect for parts of the coastal western United States. What does this mean, and why is it so bad?
Large wave topping the Tillamook Rock lighthouse in coastal Pacific Northwest. NWS Portland via Twitter
According to National Weather Surface Glossary, the agency will issue a High Surf Advisory "when breaking wave action poses a threat to life and property within the surf zone." The National Weather Service issues a High Surf Warning "when breaking wave action results in an especially heightened threat to life and property within the surf zone." In both cases, high surf criteria varies by region. A Coastal Hazard Message was issued by the National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area at 6:56 am PST on Monday December 17th. In summary, it read:
...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this season, will impact the coast tonight through Monday with breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet... with breakers occasionally exceeding 50 feet at favored break points along the coast.
Swells for Monday December 17th near San Francisco Bay NWS
The timing for the waves were expected to peak Monday and subside by early Tuesday morning. Impacts from this event could include waves washing over jetties, significant beach erosion, local coastal flooding and the threat of people being swept into "frigid and turbulent ocean water," according to the National Weather Service. Such cold water can cause cardiac arrest and involuntary gasp reflexes that lead to drowning. For this reason, the National Weather Service has advised "that people remain away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off rocks, jetties and beaches."
High Surf Warning for parts of California and the northwest coastlines. NWS
The dramatic wave heights are related to a consistent fetch of wind action that, as Weather Channel expert Tom Niziol tweeted in his back-trajectory analysis, has origins up near Alaska. I will circle back to the meteorology of this event in a moment. Data from the Jason satellite missions have indicated wave heights of 36-38 feet. The National Weather Service also expects 25 to 50 feet break waves at northwest and west facing locations. The Jason missions are a series of U.S.-Europe satellites to measure the height of the ocean surface.
The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory website points out that,
The primary instrument on Jason-3 is a radar altimeter. The altimeter will measure sea-level variations over the global ocean with very high accuracy (as 1.3 inches or 3.3 centimeters, with a goal of achieving 1 inch or 2.5 centimeters). (Note: a Jason-2 is also still in orbit)
In case you are curious, a radar altimeter basically (below) measures how much time it takes the radar pulse to go from the satellite to the surface of the ocean and back to the satellite. With such information and precise positioning of the satellite's orbit, sea surface height can be measured.
How satellite altimeters work NOAA
Why is all of this dangerous surf and wind action happening? It is basic "meteorology 101." A strong area of low pressure is translating from the Gulf of Alaska into western Canada. In the Northern Hemisphere, the winds blow in a counterclockwise sense around the low. The backside northwesterly flow behind particularly strong frontal system is moving into the coastal regions of California and the northwestern U.S. Because of the sustained northwest winds, water is being "shoved" towards the western U.S. coast. This is causing a sustained period of west-northeast swell, which is defined by the National Weather Service defines as,
wind-generated waves that have travelled out of their generating area. Swells characteristically exhibit smoother, more regular and uniform crests and a longer period than wind waves.
Surface map for Monday December 17th with low pressure and frontal systems causing life-threatening... [+] swells. NWS
While I am sure some surfers are seeing this as an opportunity, I urge everyone to consider the warnings of the National Weather Service as if your life depends on it. Wait, it just might.
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1b2053329ec243a07298581a40fecd05 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/08/so-what-its-warmer-climate-change-messaging-must-evolve-now/ | Why Climate Change Messaging Must Evolve Beyond Noting Record-Breaking Temperatures | Why Climate Change Messaging Must Evolve Beyond Noting Record-Breaking Temperatures
In my Forbes articles, I try to provide credible scientific information in a manner that a scientist, student, policymaker, or someone at the mall can understand. I often use the "So What?" litmus test to convey my thoughts because many scientists get "stuck in the mud" of their discipline thoughts and jargon. As a scientist and professor, I navigate the "academic treadmill" and the broader "gym" of media, policymakers, and public groups. I often make the point that there is a dangerous inertia in how climate science is discussed that does not resonate with the public.
Recently, NASA and NOAA announced that 2018 was the fourth hottest year for the planet since record-keeping began. This was the dominant headline. It was also the topic that reporters reached out to me about. We are well past the time for the narrative to evolve on how scientists, media, and policymakers discuss climate change.
Impacts of Hurricane Michael on agriculture in Georgia. Georgia Department of Agriculture website
I recall telling a reporter recently to ask me something different than the "temperatures are warm" thing. My point was that we are in a changed climate paradigm. Record warmth and new records are the "new normal." At what point are such records not "breaking news" anymore? In a press release on February 6th, NOAA led with:
Earth’s long-term warming trend continued in 2018 as persistent warmth across large swaths of land and ocean resulted in the globe’s fourth hottest year in NOAA’s 139-year climate record. The year ranks just behind 2016 (warmest), 2015 (second warmest) and 2017 (third warmest)...In separate analyses of global temperatures, scientists from NASA, the United Kingdom Met Office and the World Meteorological Organization also reached the same heat ranking.
Most major news outlets led with a similar narrative. These facts are interesting, important and terrifying at the same time. However, is it really breaking news? Technically, I suppose it is, but you get my point right? I fully expect 2019 to be in the top 5 and possibly even number one given potential El Nino impacts.
For the public, science information needs to be clear and to the point. AAAS
I published a Forbes article a few years ago conveying nine tips to communicate science to the non-scientists. Two important points in that piece were to (1) get to the point (graphic above) and (2) keep the message miniature, memorable and meaningful. Specifically, I noted:
Scientists need to work hard to keep their message memorable, meaningful and miniature. These are the so-called "Three M's of Messaging" that the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) has also recommended in its Science Communications workshops.
Scientists, media, and stakeholders must move beyond the annualized, methodical reporting of "it's the ____ warmest year every" or "temperatures continue to rise." I argue that such headlines are not "meaningful" to the public or a policymaker. People don't notice averages, they notice extremes or impacts on their immediate lives.
Even as scientists understand the implications of 1 to 4 degrees of warming, many people, particularly in the United States, will go "Meh, I like that its 80 degrees F in February (as it was in Atlanta yesterday)." I often point out that in isolation a 2 or 3 degree fever doesn't sound that bad. However, a child running a 100-101 degree fever over a sustained period of time is not good for the body and extreme things will eventually happen to the system.
This is exactly how I see with climate change. The "so what" for people is not more graphs and charts showing warming. It is placing such warming within the context of their lives, "kitchen table" issues, well-being, and health. For me, the most important information in the aforementioned NOAA press release was,
In 2018, the U.S. experienced 14 weather and climate disasters, each with losses exceeding $1 billion and all totaling around $91 billion in damages. Both the number of events and their cumulative cost ranked fourth highest since records began in 1980.
Billion dollar disasters in 2018. NOAA
Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Florence, and the western wildfires caused $75 billion in damages. Weather-climate related events also killed 247 people and injured numerous more. However, if you take a deeper look at these disasters, "kitchen table issues" can be found. Florence and Michael significantly impacted the cotton, peanut, poultry, turkey and pecan sectors of the agriculture community. I challenge you to consider how many products you will use this week from those sectors. Wildfires in California impacted the wine industry, construction, and film production. In a recent Weather Geeks Podcast, Steve Bowen, Director and meteorologist at Aon, and I reviewed the economic impacts of 2018 weather disasters.
Most articles this week led with a trend line map or the map below. I chose to end this piece with such a graphic information. It is scientifically important, but its just not the story that resonates with the public. I don't believe it is also the type of information that provokes action by policymakers either. Their constituency are people in their districts not journal articles. My colleague professor Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Georgia Institute of Technology, eloquently articulated to Congress this week why action is need "now."
2018 Mean Global Temperature anomalies. NOAA
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72df3f0e1f348aae44dfa9f02f7667e8 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/02/16/11-things-climate-change-dismissive-people-say-on-social-media/ | 11 Things Climate Change 'Dismissive' People Say On Social Media | 11 Things Climate Change 'Dismissive' People Say On Social Media
It is clear that climate is changing, and there is a human component on top of the naturally varying system. Most climate scientists understand this, and most logical people do too. The 4th National Climate Assessment report is a good place to find affirmation for these statements. Each year, the Yale Climate Communication group and George Mason University scholars query the American public about their views on climate change. Within this study, there is always a certain percentage that fall into a category called "Dismissive." According to the study authors,
the Dismissive are very sure it (climate change) is not happening and are actively involved as opponents of a national effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Currently, the percentage is roughly nine percent. While their numbers are small, they are often very loud, persistent, aggressive and vitriolic in social media. Over time, I have noticed 11 "Dismissive" tactics on social media.
2018 Six Americas results Yale Climate Communication
Ice Ages. Ice ages always seem to come up and some statement about natural cycles. It is honestly stunning this happens since most climate scientists are very aware of the various ways that climate changes naturally. The discussion about climate change is not an "either/"or" discussion. It is an "and" discussion. Grass grows naturally, "and" it grows differently with fertilized soil. Trees fall naturally in the forest, "and" they can be cut down by a chain saw.
That magazine article from the 1970s. Apparently there was an article in Newsweek in 1975 that ran a story about a "cooling world." It is amusing to see how often this is cited in social media. As a wrote previously in Forbes,
No, a magazine article, a few people, and some literature said this not the majority of scientists or scientific studies. The writer of that magazine article has even debunked this himself.
Citing one random study. I call this 1-study mania. Over the years, I have seen people criticize the peer review literature. They talk about how it is unreliable or biased. While there are certainly issues with the literature, it is still an important gatekeeper against bad science in the same way the FDA is for bad food or drugs. Here's the kicker though. As soon as a study appears that supports a "confirmation bias viewpoint", they are quick to cite the study to support their point.
"Grand Poobah" effect. I observe this often in social media. A person doesn't necessarily have a strong background in climate science but relies on some scientist or personality for talking points or to validate their positions. They will often even mention or tag that person in their social media post. I call it the "Grand Poobah" effect and have written about it previously.
Doubt and its merchants. There is typically some sample of comments about scientists and grant money. That statement illustrates a lack of understanding of the science grants process. Here is a good "101" at this link. There are rigorous processes for attaining grants based on science inquiry and review. There are also "other" funding models and grey literature publications designed to advocate certain positions or misinformation. Merchants of Doubts by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway is a good book to dig deeper into the latter.
Credentialing. This is the era in which a "Tweet" is presumed to carry as much weight as a degree or years of scientific inquiry. The "Dunning - Kruger Effect" is in full-effect on social media. An oft-used strategy is "I have a degree in (fill in favorite discipline that is not climate science or climatology)" or "I study this in my spare time while in my basement eating cookies."
Deflection. Another tactic that I notice is lobbing questions of deflection. This is usually some random, "seemingly" intellectual, provocative or irrelevant question that has the intent of "public gotcha" to the climate scientist.
It's cold. This winter I am certain that you have seen this one: "It's cold or snowing so global warming must not exist." Nope, it means the day or week is a manifestation of weather. It is not "where you live" warming. It is not "my little part of the planet on this particular day" change.
They changed the name. Speaking of global warming, there are always a handful of folks that finds devious intent in the use of climate change or global warming. I discussed the reasons why that is another "smoke and mirrors" tactic in a previous Forbes piece.
No profile and few followers. Many of the dismissive comments come from accounts with few followers (less than 10) or no profile picture. I am guessing these are "bots." I suppose this is technically not "saying" anything as the article title indicates, but you get the point.
Storms always happened. This is a very common one. Aforementioned comments about trees falling in the forest or the grass-fertilizer relationship address such statements.
I am sure you can name others that I missed, and I certainly hope I caught all of the "typos" because they hyper-focus on those like a laser too.
Enough of this, it is time to watch some college hoops.
The six Americas on climate change Yale Climate Communication
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25f21c48ce73021c608b3d00250a2631 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/03/07/sealioning-is-a-common-trolling-tactic-on-social-media-what-is-it/?sh=766611cf7a41 | 'Sealioning' Is A Common Trolling Tactic On Social Media--What Is It? | 'Sealioning' Is A Common Trolling Tactic On Social Media--What Is It?
There are times in life that you know something when you see it. In competitive sports, a very talented player usually stands out above the others. I can identify within seconds whether I will dislike the food at a restaurant based on the smell. Social media has become a significant part of the daily landscape of society. There is interaction, information-sharing, debate, discussion, vitriol, harassment, and a lot of people exhibiting the Dunning-Kruger Effect. As I previously noted in Forbes, the Dunning-Kruger Effect is "a psychological concept that people believe they know more about a topic than they actually do (or conversely misjudge how much they do not know)." You probably didn't know it was a formal "thing," but you know it when you see it. This week a former graduate student from my Department at the University of Georgia introduced me to the term "sealioning." Upon learning what it means, I realized that it happens a lot on social media, especially to scientists. What is it?
Sea lions NOAA
For more insight, I asked Dr. Pete Akers to explain since he exposed me to the term. Akers is a scientist at Géosciences de l’Environnement, Grenoble. He said via social media,
people who troll online by pretending to ask sincere questions, but just keep feigning ignorance and repeating 'polite' follow ups until someone gets fed up. That way, they can cast their opponents as attacking them and being unreasonable. It's pretty common on comment sections of weather blogs re: climate change. It's called 'sealioning', and the term is based on this lovely comic (found at this link).
As a climate scientist, I see all types of tactics employed by climate change-dismissive people. My recent summary in Forbes identified:
the use of misinterpreted or outdated science information, citation of 1-study that confirms a bias, establishing tangential or inflated credentials, the "grand Poobah" effect of repeating a favorite personality, reference natural cycles, ice ages or magazine articles, or deflection with a series of irrelevant questions to create a "gotcha" moment for a scientist
The "deflection" point that I made sounds a lot like "sealioning" though I was not familiar with the term when I wrote that piece. Daniel Chandler and Rod Munday have actually published the book, A Dictionary of Social Media. They define "sealioning" as "A disparaging term for the confrontational practice of leaping into an online discussion with endless demands for answers and evidence."
The Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University published a collection of essays entitled Perspectives on Harmful Speech Online. In the essay "The Multiple Harms of Sea Lions," Amy Johnson writes:
Rhetorically, sealioning fuses persistent questioning—often about basic information, information on easily found elsewhere, or unrelated or tangential points—with a loudly-insisted-upon commitment to reasonable debate. It disguises itself as a sincere attempt to learn and communicate. Sealioning thus works both to exhaust a target’s patience, attention, and communicative effort, and to portray the target as unreasonable. While the questions of the “sea lion” may seem innocent, they’re intended maliciously and have harmful consequences.
Johnson offers an alternative term because she argues that "sealioning" is "opaque and obscure." She borrows from the information technology and computational community to suggest that "sealioning," as she writes, is a "type of denial of service (DoS) attack—one aimed at humans rather than servers."
I think this tweet by Anthony Martin is important because honest scientific discourse and inquiry are necessary. Martin tweeted:
Pertinent article for my #ENVSCOMM19 students when trying to discern "good faith" vs. "bad faith" appeals for information/explanations of environmental-science topics. You do not owe your time nor energy to anyone who deliberately moves the goalposts. #scicomm
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32d9b6a5fc83a4eb4444d7420c02e4c4 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/02/how-meteorologists-compare-to-other-professions-that-predict-the-future/ | How Meteorologists Compare To Other Professions That Predict The Future | How Meteorologists Compare To Other Professions That Predict The Future
A recent piece by Dennis Mersereau in Forbes described how President Trump's proposed budget (likely "dead on arrival" in Congress) would result in mass layoffs of National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists. On the Forbes Facebook page, I saw cliche and misinformed comments like "Good, meteorologists are always wrong anyhow." Such statements are rooted in misperceptions based on experiences, lack of math-statistical literacy, and knee-jerk reactions. The reality is that weather forecasts are quite good when consumed with proper perspective. I pose the following question: If the weather forecast called for 70 degrees F in two days and it ended up being 68 degrees F, will people say the forecast was wrong? The answer is probably like many relationships. It's complicated. Meteorologists seem to be held to a different standard than other professions that predict the future.
Meteorologists tracking severe storms. NOAA
In response to the question posed, some people will say it was right and others will say it is wrong. How do meteorologists compare to other professions that try to predict the future like investors, economists, sports analysts, doctors, and political pundits? If an investor could pick the best performing stocks 80 to 90 percent of the time, would you likely give her your business? What if your doctor said that there was a 90% chance that your symptoms will worsen unless you take a certain medication, are you likely to fill the prescription? There is probably someone reading this and overanalyzing the questions. However, most people probably said "yes" to both questions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Scijinks website is a good place to start:
A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.
These percentages are even higher within 2 to 3 days. Jason Samenow and Angela Fritz wrote in the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang:
A one-day temperature forecast is now typically accurate within about two to 2.5 degrees, according to National Weather Service data. In other words, when you see a forecast high of 82, most of the time the actual high will be between 80 and 85.
At this point I want to recall a story. My son and I were tubing down a river in north Georgia. It started to rain, and a woman started complaining that meteorologists were wrong because there was "only" a 20% chance of rain. I thought to myself, "Well, it wasn't a 0% chance of rain so why are you complaining?" As a meteorologist and atmospheric sciences professor for over 25 years, I have come to learn that people's perceptions (and often misunderstandings) shape how they view weather forecasts. She thought the forecast was wrong though if you look at the definition of percent chance of rain on a NWS website, it clearly states:
The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) describes the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area....Mathematically, PoP is defined as follows: PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all.
I can't tell you how often someone asks me if it is going to rain at 7 pm near the white Gazebo in the park 3 days from now during Prom pictures. Unrealistic expectations about aspects of forecasting shape misinformed judgments about my profession. During Hurricane Irma (2017), I noticed people evacuating from one part of the "cone of uncertainty" in southeast Florida to another part of the cone, southwest Florida. People often misinterpret what the cone is showing them.
Improvement in the reduction of hurricane track forecast error over the years. NOAA
Nate Silver's excellent essay, "The Weatherman Is Not a Moron," was published a few years ago in the New York Times. He clearly laid out that weather forecasting is an area that has seen tremendous strides in recent decades. He writes,
Still, most people take their forecasts for granted. Like a baseball umpire, a weather forecaster rarely gets credit for getting the call right....Six years earlier, the National Weather Service also made a nearly perfect forecast of Hurricane Katrina, anticipating its exact landfall almost 60 hours in advance.
His point is that people tend to only remember the relatively few negative outcomes and not the more numerous positive outcomes. For example, the "March Madness" season of college basketball is wrapping up. A player could make 97% of his free throws during the season, but people will judge him on the 1 miss that costed them the game in the Sweet 16.
Ok, let's get back to the comparison of meteorologists to other professions that predict the future. The website The Mathematical Investor posed the question, "How accurate are market forecasters?" Based on analysis of 68 market forecasters, they concluded:
The top-ranking forecaster was 78.7% accurate by our metric. The next three had 72.5%, 71.8% and 70.5% accuracy scores. A total of 11 of the 68 had accuracy scores exceeding 60%. At the other end of our ranking, two had accuracy scores near 17%; three others had scores 25% or lower. A total of 18 had accuracy scores less than 40%.
A study out of Hamilton College analyzed the accuracy of political pundits. In their analysis of 26 political experts, they considered over 472 predictions made over a 16-month period on Sunday talk shows. The results, summarized in a press release, confirmed that
only nine of the prognosticators they studied could predict more accurately than a coin flip. Two were significantly less accurate, and the remaining 14 were not statistically any better or worse than a coin flip.
Meteorologists are able to predict, with up to 90% or more accuracy within 2 to 5 days, how a complex fluid on a rotating planet with oceans, mountains, and varying heat distributions changes. Kudos colleagues.
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54856ba88b18e55d55c6e13a2bf51271 | https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2019/04/14/the-good-bad-and-ugly-of-weather-messaging-for-the-masters/ | The Good, Bad, And Ugly Of Weather Messaging For The Masters | The Good, Bad, And Ugly Of Weather Messaging For The Masters
I was watching the Masters golf tournament like many people on Sunday. It was compelling, and Tiger Woods came away with his fifth green jacket. In the days leading up to the iconic golf tournament, it was apparent to us within the meteorological community that weather could be an issue for the Masters. In fact, I wrote in Forbes:
as a meteorologist, I am particularly concerned about Sunday. Sunday is typically the final round and brings high drama at the Masters. The official NWS forecast for Sunday calls for an 80% chance of precipitation (showers and thunderstorms) mainly after 3 pm. Some of these storms could be severe
As I reflect on the weather messaging associated with the Masters, there was good, bad, and ugly.
Storms approaching Augusta, Georgia on Sunday afternoon Marshall Shepherd
The "good" is actually better described as excellent. On Saturday, the Masters announced some changes to the Sunday schedule because of the weather forecast. PGATour.com reported the following adjustments on its website:
The field of 65 players who made the cut will play in threesomes off two tees (Nos. 1 and 10) starting at 7:30 a.m. ET. The final threesome of 54-hole leader Francesco Molinari, Tiger Woods and Tony Finau will tee off at 9:20 a.m. Final-round coverage on CBS will be live beginning at 9 a.m. ET.
The image above shows the radar image at 3:22 pm near Augusta, Georgia. Storms were approaching as scheduled and the entire area was under a tornado watch until 7pm (graphic below). The decisions made by the Masters and its on-site meteorologists are perfect examples of what the American Meteorological Society (AMS) had in mind when it issued guidance on outdoor venues, sporting events, and weather. The AMS statement said:
A common theme in the after-action reports and service assessments for these disasters is that the weather plan was inadequate to deal with a comprehensive portfolio of weather risk, or a weather plan didn’t exist. In many instances, organizers simply “hoped that we wouldn’t get hit.” Reducing the weather risk to life and property at venues and public gatherings is a priority for the weather enterprise and the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Knowledge of, and investment in, pre-event planning and mitigation serves the nation economically as well as socially.
The Masters used a proactive approach rather than a "hope" plan.
The tornado watch issued for the Augusta, Georgia area by the National Weather Service on Masters... [+] Sunday. NWS
The "bad" is actually not related to the Masters tournament but something that happened during the television broadcast. For days, it was clear that the Atlanta area and parts of north Georgia would be dealing with severe weather. At several times during the broadcast, CBS 46 in Atlanta cut in to the Masters coverage to alert viewers of tornado warnings in the area. These are life-saving actions and consistent with what the Federal Communication Commission (FCC) expects stations to do. The usual complaints started sprouting on social media. CBS46 actually used a split-screen approach rather than completely removing the Masters coverage, and I thought that it worked well. Yet, many golf fans complained. Two of the most consistent complains that I saw included:
This type of coverage isn't needed anymore because we have weather Apps. Why do they keep repeating the same information?
On the first complaint, there are still a significant number of people (elderly, vulnerable, and marginalized populations) that may not have other resources to receive a warning. Many people are not very smartphone savvy so rely on their local TV meteorologists. I have written in the past about how a good number of people still rely on a comforting voice over Apps in times of stressful weather. I also kept wondering why the folks complaining about alerts couldn't watch the Masters on an App. As for the second complaint, many people drop in and out of a broadcast. Repetition is often required to ensure that the message is received by whoever is watching at the time.
The "ugly" is that some Atlanta area TV meteorologists actually received death threats because they interrupted the Masters. Yes, you read that correctly. Ella Dorsey is a meteorologist at CBS 46-Atlanta and happens to be one of my former students at the University of Georgia. She tweeted:
To everyone sending me death threats right now: you wouldn’t be saying a damn thing if a tornado was ravaging your home this afternoon. Lives are more important than 5 minutes of golf. I will continue to repeat that if and when we cut into programming to keep people safe.
That's ugly folks.
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