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animals than in southern and are also high as compared to other studies of estuarine
dolphins and may place these animals at risk of reproductive failure and decreased
immune function.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide) have been shown to be the primary cause of global
increase of surface temperatures (IPCC 2007; Karl, et al. 2009), leading to warming of
the oceans, melting of ice fields and glaciers, and diverse climatic effects, which for
south Florida entail a number of important issues (Table 5.1), such as: sea level rise,
changes in rainfall and evaporation patterns affecting the amount of available
freshwater and potentially causing prolonged droughts and/or flooding; saltwater
intrusion into the coastal aquifers and public water supply; reduction of coastal
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stormwater release capacity due to sea level rise (SLR); and changes in tropical storm
and hurricane activity with increased surge levels (Heimlich et al 2009; Obeysekera
2011)
Sea Level Rise
Because of the sensitivity of vegetation patterns to subtle elevation differences,
we can expect the coming sea level rise to have a profound effect on the Park’s
terrestrial vegetation. Landward (uphill) migration of mangrove is already occurring on
the mainland, partly due to anthropogenic changes to the coastal water delivery
systems or driven by sea level rise. Wanless (1984) showed the movement of the
intertidal zone upward at the Coral Gables Waterway, caused by a slight rise in sea
level during the latter half of the 20th Century. However, the current rate of rise is faster
and is expected to be the controlling factor on future patterns of terrestrial vegetation as
more and more of the low coastal margin of the Park becomes inundated by marine
waters. Coronado-Molina et al. (2003) suggested that mangroves on the mainland
shore may be better suited to keep up with the sea level rise than those on the Keys,
due to higher productivity. Harlem and Meeder (2008) showed that sea level rise of only
1 foot would inundate much of the shoreline of Biscayne National Park at high tide
which would alter salinity regimes in the coastal area drastically and favor the westward
(inland) migration of saltwater habitats.
One aspect of great concern is the release of sediment and its associated
nutrients and pollutants to the marine system as coastlines erode. There are large
amounts of the former locked up in coastal sediments which will enter the sea as waves
and increased currents attack the existing shore deposits. While moving sediments by
currents is a natural phenomenon and most benthic communities are adapted to some
amount of sedimentation, the loading potential from rapid sediment adjustments as sea
level rises can only be considered a negative impact on Bay and especially on
marine/reef ecosystems.
Ocean Acidification
Ocean acidification refers to the ongoing increase in acidity (lowering pH) of the
Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake anthropogenic carbon dioxide of (CO2) from the
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atmosphere. This pH reduction causes problems for marine organisms which use
carbonate molecules (aragonite or calcite) to construct hard body parts or protective
shells, skeletons, and tests. Included in the affected groups are molluscs, foraminifera,
coccolithophores, crustaceans, starfish, bryozoans, and corals. Octocorals (soft corals)
and other marine organisms use calcite for structural support and scleractinian corals
use aragonite which is the metastable form of calcium carbonate used to build
skeletons. The Park lies in an area that will be least affected by acidification if the
models hold true (Guinotte et al. 2006), however, changes in the deep reefs seaward of
the Park should be expected in the near term and effects will increase in shallower
waters after 2100.
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Table 5.1 - Summary of Climate Change Impacts on Southeast Florida’s Water Resources
(Heimlich et al., 2009)
Climate change Potential threats to Potential threats of Other effects
impact fresh water supply severe flooding
Sea level rise • Saltwater intrusion of aquifer • Compromised stormwater • Barrier islands subject to
• Inundation of Southernmost drainage systems inundation and washout
Everglades with seawater • Reduced capacity of canals • Beach erosion
potentially affecting the and coastal control structures. • Coastal wetlands and
Biscayne Aquifer in south • Greater potential for flooding southernmost Everglades
Miami-Dade. due to heavy rain storms and encroachment
• Reduced groundwater flow hurricanes
• Reduced fresh water available • Reduced groundwater flow
• Rising water tables
• Reduced soil storage capacity
• Increased risk of flooding of
coastal and low-lying inland
areas
Changes in • Longer, more severe drought • Shorter, wetter rainy seasons • Stresses on agriculture,
rainfall during dry season • More severe rainfall events landscaping, and natural
patterns • Greater likelihood of • Severe flooding during more systems due to drought
multiyear droughts intense rain events
• Reduced annual rainfall (10-
15%)
• Increased risk of ground and
surface water contamination
due to flooding
More intense • Increased risk of • Enhanced storm surge • Greater wind and storm surge
hurricanes contamination with seawater • More intense rainfall damage
due to storm surge, • Beach erosion
• Coastal inundation
Higher • Increased evapotranspiration • Heat stress on
temperatures reducing water available for ecosystems and marine life
urban and natural areas • Dehydration of plants and
soils
• Greater risk of urban fires
and wildfires
• Hypoxia of coastal waters
and algae blooms
• Increased risk of insects and
insect-borne disease
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SECTION 6:
NUMERIC NUTRIENT CRITERIA
An additional task was added to the original NPS-FIU Task Agreement, whose
objective was to derive numeric nutrient criteria for all south Florida estuaries and