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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
0.000
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
CHLa Z-Cusum .
TP (mg/l)
SCI CHLa Zcusum Threshold Median TP 75pctl TP
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
CHLa Z-Cusum .
TP (mg/l)
SCM CHLa Zcusum Threshold Median TP 75pctl TP
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0.000
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
CHLa Z-Cusum .
TP (mg/l)
SCO CHLa Zcusum Threshold Median TP 75pctl TP
SCI
LAND
SCM
SCO
OFF
OCEAN
94
Hence, we propose the development of protective nutrient criteria that include
two limits: LT-L (Long-Term Limit) and UP-L (Upper Limit). The LT-L is the expected
nutrient concentration in a water body at which no adverse effects would be expected or
the effects would be insignificant for the type of designated use. The LT-L is equal to the
nutrient threshold or to the median nutrient concentration if the threshold is larger than
the median. The UP-L is a nutrient upper bound concentration of the LT-L that accounts
for natural variability in nutrient drivers, for example annual seasonality and climatic
variability. The UP-L is the 80th upper confidence limit of a normal distribution with mean
equal to the threshold and standard deviation equal to the nutrient’s standard deviation
for the segment under consideration. This limit allows one exceedence in three
consecutive years. The Type I error rate for both limits is about 10 percent. A summary
of the calculated criteria is presented in Table 6.2.
95
Table 6.2: Total Phosphorous (TP) and Total Nitrogen (TN) median, Long-Term Limit
(LT-L) and Upper-Limit (UP-L) concentrations for South Florida coastal and estuarine
waters.
Basins Segment TN median TN LT-L TN UP-L TP median TP LT-L TP UPL
FK MAR 0.165 0.126 0.213 0.007 0.007 0.011
BKB 0.219 0.182 0.292 0.007 0.007 0.010
BKS 0.200 0.163 0.276 0.009 0.008 0.012
LK 0.178 0.178 0.270 0.006 0.005 0.008
MK 0.185 0.147 0.244 0.006 0.004 0.007
OFF 0.142 0.113 0.198 0.006 0.004 0.008
UK 0.158 0.125 0.201 0.005 0.003 0.007
BB CS 0.277 0.205 0.307 0.006 0.004 0.008
MBS 0.534 0.476 0.656 0.006 0.004 0.007
NCI 0.290 0.290 0.397 0.005 0.004 0.008
NCO 0.244 0.235 0.344 0.006 0.005 0.009
NNB 0.257 0.189 0.304 0.010 0.007 0.012
SCI 0.421 0.421 0.598 0.006 0.004 0.007
SCM 0.292 0.244 0.382 0.006 0.004 0.008
SCO 0.209 0.187 0.283 0.005 0.004 0.007
SNB 0.254 0.153 0.246 0.008 0.005 0.008
FB CFB 0.869 0.869 1.331 0.015 0.012 0.025
ECFB 0.613 0.449 0.652 0.006 0.004 0.009
NFB 0.614 0.664 0.882 0.009 0.005 0.010
SFB 0.571 0.520 0.781 0.007 0.007 0.012
WFB 0.323 0.222 0.408 0.012 0.012 0.025