| --- |
| license: mit |
| language: |
| - en |
| pretty_name: IGM Forum Economist Consensus |
| size_categories: |
| - 10K<n<100K |
| tags: |
| - economics |
| - surveys |
| - consensus |
| - igm-forum |
| configs: |
| - config_name: statements |
| data_files: statements.csv |
| default: true |
| - config_name: votes |
| data_files: votes.csv |
| - config_name: statements_consensus |
| data_files: statements_consensus.csv |
| --- |
| |
| # IGM Forum Economist Consensus |
|
|
| Every IGM Forum poll from the [Kent A. Clark Center for Global Markets](https://kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/) (US, Europe, Finance panels), spanning **2011–2026**, normalized to a uniform schema with a direction-blind consensus metric. |
|
|
| - **Code & blog post**: https://github.com/pradyuprasad/igm-consensus |
| - **Interactive chart**: https://pradyuprasad.com/writings/economists-agree/ |
| - **Source**: https://kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/ |
|
|
| ## Files |
|
|
| | File | Rows | What it is | |
| |---|---|---| |
| | `statements.csv` | 1,146 | One row per poll question (text, date, panel, vote shares, source URLs). | |
| | `votes.csv` | 50,410 | One row per economist-question pair (vote, confidence, comment, affiliation). | |
| | `statements_consensus.csv` | 1,146 | `statements.csv` enriched with the HHI consensus index, dominant-direction score, percentile rank, and confidence-weighted variants. | |
| | `methodology.md` | — | Coverage stats, panel breakdown, quality checks. | |
|
|
| ## The consensus metric |
|
|
| The chart in the linked blog post ranks questions by **HHI** (Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration) on the three vote shares: |
|
|
| ``` |
| HHI = share_agree² + share_uncertain² + share_disagree² |
| ``` |
|
|
| - `1.00` = unanimous; `0.33` = perfectly diffuse three-way split. |
| - Direction-blind — survives wording flips like "X is good" vs. "X is bad". |
| - Asymmetry-sensitive: scores 60/39/1 (settled) higher than 60/30/10 (real dissent), unlike top-share alone. |
|
|
| ## Coverage |
|
|
| - **558** poll pages, **0** failures, **0** duplicates |
| - **1,146** statements: **US** 644, **Europe** 377, **Finance** 125 |
| - **50,410** votes from **193** distinct economists at top departments (MIT, Harvard, Chicago, Stanford, Yale, Berkeley, Princeton, Columbia, plus European/finance equivalents) |
| - 553/558 pages use the official "Download Poll Data" CSV as source of truth; 5 special crisis-rating pages use HTML chart shares. |
|
|
| See `methodology.md` for the full audit. |
|
|
| ## Quick start |
|
|
| ```python |
| from datasets import load_dataset |
| |
| statements = load_dataset("pradyuprasad/igm-consensus", "statements_consensus", split="train") |
| print(statements[0]) |
| ``` |
|
|
| Or with pandas: |
|
|
| ```python |
| import pandas as pd |
| |
| url = "https://huggingface.co/datasets/pradyuprasad/igm-consensus/resolve/main/statements_consensus.csv" |
| df = pd.read_csv(url) |
| print(df.sort_values("consensus_score", ascending=False).head(10)) |
| ``` |
|
|
| ## License |
|
|
| MIT for the schema and code that produced this dataset. Underlying poll data is from the IGM Forum — consult the [Clark Center site](https://kentclarkcenter.org/) for terms governing redistribution of the original surveys. |
|
|
