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update: I have finally gotten to the end of the article. It does seem to close abruptly in the middle of a sentence, in fact in the middle of a word "Nearly all of them had trained with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, but investigators said only five had any useful information — and that was about recruitment and lin" Seems e... |
anyway Kudos to Tim Golden who reported from New York and Washington f and Don Van Natta Jr. who reported from from Guantánamo Bay and to Carlotta Gall, David Rohde, Lizette Alvarez, Clifford Krauss, Raymond Bonner and Jason Horowitz who contributed reporting. |
Today in the Times "Last month, a senior Bush administration official told The Times that Mr. Kahtani had provided information to interrogators "about a planned attack and about financial networks to fund terrorist operations." But several other officials disputed that characterization, saying he had not given any new ... |
For readers who aren't willing to read 7 pages on the web, this excellent article presents strong evidence that torture lite did not work as well as a cup of tea in getting Mr Kahtani to talk. |
My interest is to repeat the perennial proposal that anonymous sources who are caught lying be identified. If sources are allowed to lie anonymously, lies can be spread without anyone bearing responsibility. No legitimate purpose is served by assuring sources that they are free to lie. If a source asks to speak off the... |
I'd say all reputable newspapers should declare it to be a policy that promises of anonymity are conditional on the absence of solid evidence of dishonesty. Also, while they are at it, they should cite other news sources as follows "according to an anonymous source quoted in the Los Angelos Post Enquirer, which allows ... |
The Electoral vote predictor based on the latest polls (sometimes November 2000) |
The Whitewater Development Corporation was founded before the Madison Guaranty S&L. |
I can’t believe I just learned that. Did you know that ? Do you care ? I will try to convince you that you should have known and that you should care at least a tiny little bit (probably not enough to waste your time reading this). My ignorance is probably partly explained by the fact that I moved to Italy in 1989 and ... |
Blumenthal claims and Lelyveld concedes that the headline to the March 8 1992 NYT story by Jeff Gerth which started the story/scandal "Clintons Joined S&L Operator in an Ozark Real-Estate Venture," is inaccurate, since, at the time of the joining James McDougal was non an S&L operator. Lelyveld concedes the point writi... |
The last claim is true, the references to the time line in the article are not confused and were clearly made with great care. However, the article seems to have confused the person who wrote the headling. Its opening sentence was "Bill Clinton and his wife were business partners with the owner of a failing savings and... |
I assume that, conceding that a front page headline made a false claim the Times published a correction. Something along the line of “the March 8 headline of a story by Jeff Gerth incorrectly described the business activities of James McDougal at the time the Whitewater Development Corporation was founded. He was a rea... |
I don’t write good enough to criticize every sentence everyone writes, but I think that Gerth’s article was deliberately misleading. In fact, I think that Lelyveld is still trying to pull the same trick 12 years later after conceding the point. |
The timing is central to the accusations made by Gerth (followed by many many others). Lelyveld writes “The central premise was declared in the first paragraph. It was that the governor was a business partner of a banker ‘subject to state regulation.’” Now, why would such a premise be of any public interest. It is not ... |
Now what exactly should the Clintons have done when McDougal decided to found Morgan Guarantee ? They could have demanded that he dissolve Whitewater, but that really would have been an ethical lapse. The dissolution of a partnership whose main asset is real estate is an excellent opportunity to transfer wealth. For ex... |
Given the timing, unless they are pre-cognitive, the Clintons couldn’t have known that entering the Whitewater partnership could later be seen as an ethical lapse. Perhaps Mr Lelyveld thinks that Hillary Clinton is precognitive. This would explain why he mentions “Mrs. Clinton's spectacular success in speculative cattl... |
Thursday, June 17, 2004 |
Remember George H. W. Bush's evil twin Skippy ? |
You know from Doonesburry. Basically H.W. sure seems to be a decent man and, as president, was much to statesmanlike for his own good. However, when campaigning he turned viscious. |
Now his son sure seems not to be a good person and wouldn't recognise a statesman if he grew up with him. However, W. managed to get elected largely because he seemed to be a nice guy. |
I think George W Bush's non-evil twin chippy handled the Clinton portrait unveiling. If he keeps W in an undisclosed location for the whole campaign we might be in worse trouble than we are already. |
Tuesday, June 15, 2004 |
The Random Pledge Generator |
Ah I wish I could program in JAVA. What we need now, as Kevin Drum explains is a Random Pledge Generator which will enable our kids to pledge allegiance to the flag without violating the first amendment. Excomunicated ex Mormon |
Teresa Nielson Hayden creator of the wonderful Random Plot Generator should get on the job. |
Here is my feeble low tech effort |
I Pledge (affirm) [respect and tolerate the people who pledge] allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and the republic for which it stands (pledge allegiance to the United States of America and recognise its flag) One nation under God (Allah)[Jehovah] |
{Buddha}((Brahman))[[Uhura Mazda]]{{the supreme Being}}}(((only sky))) indivisible with (which should be with) liberty and justice for all. |
That should just about do it. Once I met a beatlephobe who I assume was also an atheist. He might object to the quote of John Lennon, but he's English and doesn't have standing. |
I personally would require the first bit in square brackets. A pledge that is compelled is, to me, in itself offensive. |
Mine would be |
I respect and tolerate the people who pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America and the republic for which it stands, one nation under only sky indivisible which should be with liberty and justice for all. |
I got no problem with that. |
Update: I realise that there are still not enough options. Under sky is for atheist Lennon fans, but what about agnostics ? Also, well, I personally suspect that it is a game not a religion, but, constitutionally, have no authority to refuse to take satanism seriously so the options should be |
One nation under God (Allah)[Jehovah] |
{Buddha}((Brahman))[[Uhura Mazda]]{{the supreme Being}}}(((only sky)))[[who knows what]]{{{over Satan}}}. |
The Iconoclast |
I have been trying to find a historical antecedant to George W. Bush. During the recount fiasco, I hoped that, although he was way to the right of his dad, blood would tell. Then I thought he was Reagan without naps ... plus Nixon without the tape recorder. As my post below shows, in my mind he is well past that. |
How about Alexander the 1st who left the Army in the grips of the dread Ackhromeyev while in mystical communion with the absolute ? (quoting from memory from "In The Shadow of the Winter Palace") |
How about Phillip IV the fair of France ? |
Now that the Pope is scared that Bush will create "factions" in the American Catholic Church, my mind turns to Leo the Isaurian. |
I will not, will not, compare him to that Austrian guy. |
"Bush [told Cardinal Angelo Sodano, the Vatican secretary of state], 'Not all the American bishops are with me' on the cultural issues." |
That's an excerpt from the National Catholic Reporter, picked up in a full-length article in The New York Times and by Atrios and Josh Marshall. |
I agree with the Rev. Barry W. Lynn, executive director of Americans United for Separation of Church and State who said |
"It is just unprecedented for a president to ask for help from the Vatican to get re-elected, and that is exactly what this is," and with Linda Pieczynski, " crosses the line in this country." and with the Pope who "has warned of "the formation of factions within the church" in the United States." |
I wonder if the uniter who is not a divider can manage a schism within the Catholic Church. |
I even wonder what to make of the Lorenzo Albacete quote the NYT included for balance "If it is done in a very rude way, then the Vatican will remember and you won't get invited again. But if it is done in a diplomatic way, that is why they go to the Vatican anyway. It is not an act of devotion. It is a political thing... |
'Not all the American bishops are with me'. |
Is Msg Albacete suggesting that Bush had better rethink exactly Who is the truth and the light, if he wants another invite to the Vatican ? He has shown a bit of confusion on the subject before but nothing like this. |
The strangest thing is that this is aweful politics. How many Catholics are there who would accept Kerry's pro abortion rights views so long as Bishops let him take communion and not otherwise ? How many nutcases fear domination by the scarlet lady in Rome ? I'd say Bush stands to lose 3 votes to get 2 (total). |
Who would you prefer Reagan or Nixon ? |
asked conservatives to tease liberals back in the good old 80's. Right now |
I'd take 8 years of Nixon followed by 8 years of Reagan rather than 4 more years of Bush. I'm amazed to appreciate Reagan's intellectual vision and Nixon's integrity. |
A uniter not a divider indeed. |
Monday, June 14, 2004 |
Nexus and the Olive Tree |
I would have thought that spin stops while votes are being counted (except in Florida in 2000). Given the vague powers of the European parliament, I assume that spinmeisters (masters maitres maestri) will work overtime interpreting the results, but I would have guessed that exit polls and projections were done honestly... |
I continued to think this even when Rai (Italian public television) hired prime minister Berlusconi’s favourite polling firm (datamedia) slightly disguised as part of a consortium called Nexus. Representatives of l’Ulivo (the olive tree) the main opposition alliance, objected at the time. |
Now I see the outer limits of spin. Yesterday Berlusconi was hammered at the polls. This is no surprise first because he has made clear to Italians what he is and second because he has linked himself to Bush and the invasion of Iraq. However, he and other leaders of Forza Italia (yaay Italy) did not manage to lower exp... |
The results from Nexus quickly showed that this wasn’t low enough. They also showed a very clear downward trend so far tonight. I present % vote for Forza Italia, the whole center right coalition and the whole center left coalition in successive predictions. |
Forza Italia Center Right Total Center Left Total |
Exit Poll 22 % +/ 1.5 % 45.5 +/- 5.5 % 46.5 +/- 5.5 % |
First Projection 22.3 % 46.5 % 44.6 % |
Second Projection 21.8 % 46.6 % 44.4 % |
Third Projection 21.5 % 46.1 % 44.6 % |
Fourth Projection 20.7 % 45.4 % 45 % |
Fifth Projection 20.5 % 45.3 % 45.6 % |
Sixth Projection 20.7 % 44.9 % 45.9 % |
Actual vote 20.5 % 44 % 47.4 % |
33388 of 65878 precincts reporting |
The really weird projections concern two tiny parties representing linguistic minorities, the UV which represents French Speakers in Val d’Aosta and the SVP which represents German speakers in Sud Tirole/Alto Adige. These projections can only be described as Merde/Sheitz, since each party was consistently projected to ... |
With 33388 of 65878 precincts reporting the SVP had 0.7% of the vote so they can not (even with rounding) fall below 0.3 %. Earlier totals were closer to 1% (they count relatively fast in the Sud Tirole). |
Now it seems to me that, in this day and age, there is no need to choose a sample of precincts to make projections. It should be possible to have a data base of vote by precinct from past elections and calculate total votes now divided by votes then for reporting precincts, then to use this factor to project national t... |
Needless to say center left politicians are irritated (in spite of being pleased about the results). I am irritated too, since a thunder storm interrupted my power supply 9 times while I was posting this and I know that Berlusconi is behind it sometimes (can't wear my tinfoil hat in a thunderstorm you know). |
Sunday, June 13, 2004 |
What are we to make of This ? |
It is hard to believe Florida would offer Mr. Hardy $4.5 million for his 160 scrubby acres here in the state's southwestern corner, and perhaps harder to believe that Mr. Hardy, a 68-year-old with prostate cancer and little income, would turn the money down. But both happened recently, and now a showdown is brewing. |
The state wants Mr. Hardy's land for a huge replumbing of the Everglades, meant to restore the natural flow of rainwater from Lake Okeechobee south toward the ocean. |
I could say this shows devotion to property rights gone mad and the need for emminent domain. This guy is interfeering with what appears to be (in large part) an honest effort to restore a disrupted natural environment. Libertarians obviously should name this guy their vice presidential candidate (hey why libertarians ... |
I think that a poor guy who turns down 4.5 million is |
This means that I have inverted money worship. For me, the guy can make trouble and hurt the everglades provided that he disrespects money. I hate money worship. |
Heeyyyyy why don't we put Him on the $10 bill with his shack on the back replacing the engraving of, among other things, Bandar Bin Sultan's personal money laundry. |
Saturday, June 12, 2004 |
Right wing joke googlebombers have edged out the true link for the |
Democratic National Convention. Markos tells me to counter google and I will (hey Markos you better not have done this to show off). |
Prof. Roger Myerson of the University of Chicago department of economics(via Juan Cole) |
argues that local elections in Iraq might have, at least, made the situation less disasterous. He wonders why Bremer (pronounced Bush from now on B.) blocked them. |
I had some thoughts on the topic posted when the Sadrist uprising began. The point is that local elections were held in Nassiriya and secular candidates won. |
I'm sure that this result which is highly embarrassing to B. means that, if Bush is re-elected, Tobin Bradley's career is over. |
I agree with Myerson that it is important to understand why local elections were blocked. I am not as willing as he is to eliminate some possible explanations, in particular |
1: Jay Garner's theory that all the reason was to impose pure free market economic policies which would have been opposed by any elected Iraqi official. Juan Cole agrees with Garner. Myerson argues |
the suggestion of a free-market motivation seems implausible to me (and I am professor of economics at the University of Chicago, where advocating free markets is a local specialty). Even those who hoped to buy Iraqi public assets for bargain-basement prices should have recognized that, for long-term enforcement of the... |
I note that the assumption that people are rational is also a local specialty over there. To be very polit, it seems hard to reconcile CPA policy with the rational utility maximisation model. In particular Bush administration policy seems to me to be consistently based on the logic "get our way by any means necessary, ... |
2. Myerson's view that the aim was to help exile politicians (that is Chalabi). Very plausible. Probably at least part of the explanation. |
3. General distrust of democracy and control freaking out. This is a very simple expalanation, and to me, very plausible. B. semi follows Augustine praying "Oh Lord give me democracy in Iraq but not just now". |
4. No criticism before the US election. Any democratic process would give a legitimate platform to at least some critics of Bush. Thus it must be delayed until after November 2004. I think this is a very strong complement to 3 and an important factor. |
3 and 4 have long convinced me, here with reference to the mercifully short lived pseudo caucus proposal. |
In general, I think Myerson's approach "cui bono" relies to much an the assumption of rationality, or, as I wrote in April "is the Bush-Bermer team even dumber than I thought ?" |
Friday, June 11, 2004 |
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