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XKcawbsB6Tj5e2QRK	is-molecular-nanotechnology-scientific	Is Molecular Nanotechnology "Scientific"?	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-20T04:11:56.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	null	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c639214bcb4ac6367c12c08	49	46	40	false	0.000043	null	false	false	2021-11-08T00:44:14.263Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	4	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "XJjvxWB68GYpts93N", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	46	0	0	6	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	XKcawbsB6Tj5e2QRK		SocialPreviewType	5c639214bcb4ac6367c12c08	<p><strong>Prerequisite / Read this first:</strong>  <a href="/lw/in/scientific_evidence_legal_evidence_rational/">Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence</a> </p><p>Consider the statement "It is physically possible to construct <a href="http://www.e-drexler.com/d/06/00/Nanosystems/toc.html">di...	Prerequisite / Read this first: Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence Consider the statement "It is physically possible to construct diamondoid nanomachines which repair biological cells." Some people will tell you that molecular nanotechnology is "pseudoscience" because it has not been verified by ...	667	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
fhojYBGGiYAFcryHZ	scientific-evidence-legal-evidence-rational-evidence	Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-19T05:36:12.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	3TTMvZ6cDDiZehq2M	18	122	138	false	0.000158	null	false	false	2022-03-07T15:32:42.691Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	16	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	F7mZjnZMCCeLZG6Ea	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	4	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "AHK82ypfxF45rqh9D", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-12-23T20:53:...	null	null	false	null	null	0	122	0	0	15	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	fhojYBGGiYAFcryHZ		SocialPreviewType	3TTMvZ6cDDiZehq2M	<p>Suppose that your good friend, the police commissioner, tells you in strictest confidence that the crime kingpin of your city is Wulky Wilkinsen. As a rationalist, are you licensed to believe this statement? Put it this way: if you go ahead and insult Wulky, I’d call you foolhardy. Since it is prudent to act as if W...	Suppose that your good friend, the police commissioner, tells you in strictest confidence that the crime kingpin of your city is Wulky Wilkinsen. As a rationalist, are you licensed to believe this statement? Put it this way: if you go ahead and insult Wulky, I’d call you foolhardy. Since it is prudent to act as if Wulk...	899	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
WnheMGAka4fL99eae	hindsight-devalues-science	Hindsight Devalues Science	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-17T19:39:42.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	jWDHaAqSedgDb2xH5	44	220	249	false	0.000275	null	false	false	2024-04-23T17:41:46.144Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	14	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	zWvSBMDLJHLjWLAMS	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	2	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb127", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-09-11...	null	null	false	null	null	0	220	0	0	27	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	WnheMGAka4fL99eae		SocialPreviewType	jWDHaAqSedgDb2xH5	<p>This essay is closely based on an <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170801042830/http://csml.som.ohio-state.edu:80/Music829C/hindsight.bias.html">excerpt</a> from Meyers’s <i>Exploring Social Psychology</i>; the excerpt is worth reading in its entirety.</p><p>Cullen Murphy, editor of <i>The Atlantic</i>, said t...	This essay is closely based on an excerpt from Meyers’s Exploring Social Psychology; the excerpt is worth reading in its entirety. Cullen Murphy, editor of The Atlantic, said that the social sciences turn up “no ideas or conclusions that can’t be found in [any] encyclopedia of quotations . . . Day after day social sci...	607	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
fkM9XsNvXdYH6PPAx	hindsight-bias	Hindsight bias	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-16T21:58:45.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c63924bbcb4ac6367c13f80	25	66	74	false	0.00009	null	false	false	2015-04-02T22:30:09.578Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	4	2007-08-16T21:58:45.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb127", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-09-11...	null	null	false	null	null	0	66	0	0	8	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	fkM9XsNvXdYH6PPAx		SocialPreviewType	5c63924bbcb4ac6367c13f80	<p><em>Hindsight bias</em> is when people who know the answer vastly overestimate its <em>predictability</em> or <em>obviousness,</em> compared to the estimates of subjects who must guess without advance knowledge.  Hindsight bias is sometimes called the <em>I-knew-it-all-along effect</em>.</p><p>Fischhoff and Bey...	Hindsight bias is when people who know the answer vastly overestimate its predictability or obviousness, compared to the estimates of subjects who must guess without advance knowledge. Hindsight bias is sometimes called the I-knew-it-all-along effect. Fischhoff and Beyth (1975) presented students with historical acco...	739	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
WN73eiLQkuDtSC8Ag	one-argument-against-an-army	One Argument Against An Army	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-15T18:39:43.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	uZYQ2GhZHRxrvPLgS	37	91	109	false	0.000127	null	false	false	2024-11-25T09:45:33.341Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	5	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	oJyfLwurxfvjF7q97	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	2	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "LDTSbmXtokYAsEq8e", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	91	0	0	13	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	WN73eiLQkuDtSC8Ag		SocialPreviewType	uZYQ2GhZHRxrvPLgS	<p>I talked about a style of reasoning in which not a single contrary argument is allowed, with the result that every non-supporting observation has to be argued away. Here I suggest that when people encounter a contrary argument, they prevent themselves from downshifting their confidence by <em>rehearsing</em> already...	I talked about a style of reasoning in which not a single contrary argument is allowed, with the result that every non-supporting observation has to be argued away. Here I suggest that when people encounter a contrary argument, they prevent themselves from downshifting their confidence by rehearsing already-known suppo...	600	2.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
627DZcvme7nLDrbZu	update-yourself-incrementally	Update Yourself Incrementally	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-14T14:56:33.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	eiggX3eFgYi6vx3zW	29	100	116	false	0.000134	null	false	false	2021-01-07T23:04:56.502Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	10	2007-08-14T14:56:33.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	zpuyY9rydY3kQGEKg	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	4	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "hLp77TQsRkooioj86", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	100	0	0	13	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	627DZcvme7nLDrbZu		SocialPreviewType	eiggX3eFgYi6vx3zW	<p><a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/gw/politics_is_the_mindkiller/">Politics is the mind-killer</a>.  Debate is war, <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/gz/policy_debates_should_not_appear_onesided/">arguments are soldiers</a>.  There is the temptation to search for ways to <a href="https://www.lesswro...	Politics is the mind-killer. Debate is war, arguments are soldiers. There is the temptation to search for ways to interpret every possible experimental result to confirm your theory, like securing a citadel against every possible line of attack. This you cannot do. It is mathematically impossible. For every expecta...	974	2.2.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ	conservation-of-expected-evidence	Conservation of Expected Evidence	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-13T15:55:26.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	EynYqvkWrvugEXqRf	82	241	293	false	0.000323	null	false	false	2024-11-14T16:47:54.323Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	23	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	v4kWJwFqqefibE8GS	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "tZsfB6WfpRy6kFb6q", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	241	0	0	31	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	jiBFC7DcCrZjGmZnJ		SocialPreviewType	EynYqvkWrvugEXqRf	<p>Friedrich Spee von Langenfeld, a priest who heard the confessions of condemned witches, wrote in 1631 the <i>Cautio Criminalis</i> (“prudence in criminal cases”), in which he bitingly described the decision tree for condemning accused witches: If the witch had led an evil and improper life, she was guilty; if she ha...	Friedrich Spee von Langenfeld, a priest who heard the confessions of condemned witches, wrote in 1631 the Cautio Criminalis (“prudence in criminal cases”), in which he bitingly described the decision tree for condemning accused witches: If the witch had led an evil and improper life, she was guilty; if she had led a go...	740	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
mnS2WYLCGJP2kQkRn	absence-of-evidence-is-evidence-of-absence	Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-12T20:34:16.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	6xHJbP2Cv5mhB9xEz	119	153	176	false	0.000198	null	false	false	2025-01-01T19:23:27.051Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	8	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	EsB8F65EdTdS4CsFM	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "tZsfB6WfpRy6kFb6q", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	153	0	0	17	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	mnS2WYLCGJP2kQkRn		SocialPreviewType	6xHJbP2Cv5mhB9xEz	<p>From Robyn Dawes’s <i>Rational Choice in an Uncertain World</i>:</p><blockquote><p>In fact, this post-hoc fitting of evidence to hypothesis was involved in a most grievous chapter in United States history: the internment of Japanese-Americans at the beginning of the Second World War. When California governor Earl Wa...	From Robyn Dawes’s Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: > In fact, this post-hoc fitting of evidence to hypothesis was involved in a most grievous chapter in United States history: the internment of Japanese-Americans at the beginning of the Second World War. When California governor Earl Warren testified before a c...	753	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
vrHRcEDMjZcx5Yfru	i-defy-the-data	I Defy the Data!	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-11T21:33:19.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c6392afbcb4ac6367c16208	12	82	104	false	0.000122	null	false	false	2017-06-17T04:13:32.027Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	9	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb1cf", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-09-11...	null	null	false	null	null	0	82	0	0	15	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	vrHRcEDMjZcx5Yfru		SocialPreviewType	5c6392afbcb4ac6367c16208	<p>One of the great weaknesses of Science is this mistaken idea that if an experiment contradicts the dominant theory, we should throw out the theory instead of the experiment.</p><p>Experiments <em>can</em> go awry.  They can contain design flaws. They can be deliberately corrupted.  They can be unconscious...	One of the great weaknesses of Science is this mistaken idea that if an experiment contradicts the dominant theory, we should throw out the theory instead of the experiment. Experiments can go awry. They can contain design flaws. They can be deliberately corrupted. They can be unconsciously corrupted. They can be s...	763	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
5JDkW4MYXit2CquLs	your-strength-as-a-rationalist	Your Strength as a Rationalist	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-11T00:21:20.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	Yr6nAqbHCNjAQ5ozE	123	246	298	false	0.000327	null	false	false	2024-04-19T16:26:25.345Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	19	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	EsECWq2CprAJiRbLc	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5gcpKG2XEAZGj5DEf", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	246	0	0	25	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	5JDkW4MYXit2CquLs		SocialPreviewType	Yr6nAqbHCNjAQ5ozE	<p>The following happened to me in an IRC chatroom, long enough ago that I was still hanging around in IRC chatrooms. Time has fuzzed the memory and my report may be imprecise.</p><p>So there I was, in an IRC chatroom, when someone reports that a friend of his needs medical advice. His friend says that he’s been having...	The following happened to me in an IRC chatroom, long enough ago that I was still hanging around in IRC chatrooms. Time has fuzzed the memory and my report may be imprecise. So there I was, in an IRC chatroom, when someone reports that a friend of his needs medical advice. His friend says that he’s been having sudden ...	734	2.3.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
dLzZWNGD23zqNLvt3	the-apocalypse-bet	The Apocalypse Bet	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-09T17:23:33.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	null	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c63921ebcb4ac6367c1326a	51	36	50	false	0.000054	null	false	false	2013-08-09T23:42:06.394Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	3	2007-08-09T17:23:33.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	1	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "E8PHMuf7tsr8teXAe", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	36	0	0	9	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	dLzZWNGD23zqNLvt3		SocialPreviewType	5c63921ebcb4ac6367c1326a	<p>A problem with betting on engineered superplagues, physics disasters, nanotechnological warfare, or <a href="http://intelligence.org/AIRisk.pdf">intelligence explosions</a> of both Friendly and unFriendly type, is that all these events are likely to disrupt settlement of trades (to put it mildly).  It's not eas...	A problem with betting on engineered superplagues, physics disasters, nanotechnological warfare, or intelligence explosions of both Friendly and unFriendly type, is that all these events are likely to disrupt settlement of trades (to put it mildly). It's not easy to sell a bet that pays off only if the prediction mark...	370	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
HYWhKXRsMAyvRKRYz	you-can-face-reality	You Can Face Reality	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-09T01:46:36.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	nD5b2QGSJbc9Ks62m	41	163	194	false	0.000217	null	false	false	2007-08-09T01:46:36.000Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	15	2007-08-09T01:46:36.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	fGR69uc7Fa5Ef4MY6	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	1	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "AXhEhCkTrHZbjXXu3", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-07-09T06:27:...	null	null	false	null	null	0	163	0	0	20	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	HYWhKXRsMAyvRKRYz		SocialPreviewType	nD5b2QGSJbc9Ks62m	<blockquote><p>What is true is already so.</p><p>Owning up to it doesn’t make it worse.</p><p>Not being open about it doesn’t make it go away.</p><p>And because it’s true, it is what is there to be interacted with.</p><p>Anything untrue isn’t there to be lived.</p><p>People can stand what is true,</p><p>for they are al...	> What is true is already so. > > Owning up to it doesn’t make it worse. > > Not being open about it doesn’t make it go away. > > And because it’s true, it is what is there to be interacted with. > > Anything untrue isn’t there to be lived. > > People can stand what is true, > > for they are already enduring it. ...	71	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
yDfxTj9TKYsYiWH5o	the-virtue-of-narrowness	The Virtue of Narrowness	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-07T17:57:46.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	f3zdqcwtqJRaPPXsn	66	122	137	false	0.000156	null	false	false	2024-09-08T08:06:52.888Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	9	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	6gEzESEdtiZiQLFwn	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	4	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "8uNFGxejo5hykCEez", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-05-24T18:38:...	null	null	false	null	null	0	122	0	0	22	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	yDfxTj9TKYsYiWH5o		SocialPreviewType	f3zdqcwtqJRaPPXsn	<blockquote><p>What is true of one apple may not be true of another apple; thus more can be said about a single apple than about all the apples in the world.</p><p>—“The Twelve Virtues of Rationality”</p></blockquote><p>Within their own professions, people grasp the importance of narrowness; a car mechanic knows the di...	> What is true of one apple may not be true of another apple; thus more can be said about a single apple than about all the apples in the world. > > —“The Twelve Virtues of Rationality” Within their own professions, people grasp the importance of narrowness; a car mechanic knows the difference between a carburetor an...	1,081	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
43PTNr4ZMaezyAJ5o	the-proper-use-of-doubt	The Proper Use of Doubt	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-06T20:29:51.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	8PGFyegkSHcLkLNo9	35	83	91	false	0.000108	null	false	false	2007-08-06T20:29:51.000Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	9	2007-08-06T20:29:51.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	CRL8riyLDMuFtca6u	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "LDTSbmXtokYAsEq8e", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	82	0	0	15	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	43PTNr4ZMaezyAJ5o		SocialPreviewType	8PGFyegkSHcLkLNo9	<p>Once, when I was holding forth upon the Way, I remarked upon how most organized belief systems exist to <em>flee from doubt</em>. A listener replied to me that the Jesuits must be immune from this criticism, because they practice organized doubt: their novices, he said, are told to doubt Christianity; doubt the exis...	Once, when I was holding forth upon the Way, I remarked upon how most organized belief systems exist to flee from doubt. A listener replied to me that the Jesuits must be immune from this criticism, because they practice organized doubt: their novices, he said, are told to doubt Christianity; doubt the existence of God...	835	2.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
GJ4ZQm7crTzTM6xDW	focus-your-uncertainty	Focus Your Uncertainty	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-05T20:49:59.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	Qde8FmZaMmNB8DoJi	21	109	121	false	0.000139	null	false	false	2024-10-08T01:28:36.405Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	8	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	NgsAfjM4FqfqnEYDd	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5gcpKG2XEAZGj5DEf", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	109	0	0	12	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	GJ4ZQm7crTzTM6xDW		SocialPreviewType	Qde8FmZaMmNB8DoJi	<p>Will bond yields go up, or down, or remain the same? If you’re a TV pundit and your job is to explain the outcome after the fact, then there’s no reason to worry. No matter <em>which</em> of the three possibilities comes true, you’ll be able to explain why the outcome perfectly fits your pet mar...	Will bond yields go up, or down, or remain the same? If you’re a TV pundit and your job is to explain the outcome after the fact, then there’s no reason to worry. No matter which of the three possibilities comes true, you’ll be able to explain why the outcome perfectly fits your pet market theory. There’s no reason to ...	861	2.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
wCqfCLs8z5Qw4GbKS	the-importance-of-saying-oops	The Importance of Saying "Oops"	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-05T03:17:46.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	E6WdwQmTHgHuP8gXs	36	233	272	false	0.000299	null	false	false	2025-06-02T23:28:44.530Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	19	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	whypGGDHRksJjAFZL	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "mQbxDKHxPcKKRG4mb", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-08-04T04:39:...	null	null	false	null	null	0	233	0	0	28	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	wCqfCLs8z5Qw4GbKS		SocialPreviewType	E6WdwQmTHgHuP8gXs	<p>I just finished reading a history of Enron’s downfall, <em>The Smartest Guys in the Room</em>, which hereby wins my award for “Least Appropriate Book Title.” </p> <p>An unsurprising feature of Enron’s slow rot and abrupt collapse was that the executive players never admitted to having ...	I just finished reading a history of Enron’s downfall, The Smartest Guys in the Room, which hereby wins my award for “Least Appropriate Book Title.” An unsurprising feature of Enron’s slow rot and abrupt collapse was that the executive players never admitted to having made a large mistake. When catastrophe #247 grew t...	717	2.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
fAuWLS7RKWD2npBFR	religion-s-claim-to-be-non-disprovable	Religion's Claim to be Non-Disprovable	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-04T03:21:50.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	JgcrQDLAuhCf5CL8D	333	311	354	false	0.000386	null	false	false	2025-02-16T12:59:10.771Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	30	2007-08-04T03:21:50.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	3rndey8YSaatyaxLY	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	5	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "Ng8Gice9KNkncxqcj", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 0, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 1, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": true, "createdAt": "2020-06-14T22:24:17.0...	null	null	false	null	null	0	311	0	0	45	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	fAuWLS7RKWD2npBFR		SocialPreviewType	JgcrQDLAuhCf5CL8D	<p>The earliest account I know of a scientific experiment is, ironically, the story of <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20100312042939/http://www.nccbuscc.org/nab/bible/1kings/1kings18.htm">Elijah and the priests of Baal</a>.</p><p>The people of Israel are wavering between Jehovah and Baal, so Elijah announces that ...	The earliest account I know of a scientific experiment is, ironically, the story of Elijah and the priests of Baal. The people of Israel are wavering between Jehovah and Baal, so Elijah announces that he will conduct an experiment to settle it—quite a novel concept in those days! The priests of Baal will place their b...	1,319	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
ZpMDQsgLY9eF89ocF	god-is-irrelevant	God is irrelevant	null	false	false	false	null	jRRYAy2mQAHy2Mq3f	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-03T10:57:00.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	null	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c6392dcbcb4ac6367c170fe	1	1	1	false	0.000001	null	false	false	2020-05-28T23:37:40.785Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	1	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	2	null	null	null	null	[]	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	jRRYAy2mQAHy2Mq3f	katjagrace	2009-02-27T14:15:22.378Z	KatjaGrace	KatjaGrace	null	null	null	9,330	309	false	false	null	null	627	509	0	3	7	1	0	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	null	null	null	[ "trustLevel1", "canModeratePersonal", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum" ]	null	null	ZpMDQsgLY9eF89ocF		SocialPreviewType	5c6392dcbcb4ac6367c170fe	<p>Philosophically that is. Psychologically he fulfils an important role – to distance us from philosophy.</p><p>In no way would the existence of a God alter the important properties of the universe. Most of the problems a God supposedly solves are merely shifted to the other side of him – a step further aw...	Philosophically that is. Psychologically he fulfils an important role – to distance us from philosophy. In no way would the existence of a God alter the important properties of the universe. Most of the problems a God supposedly solves are merely shifted to the other side of him – a step further away from humans, wher...	462	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
nYkMLFpx77Rz3uo9c	belief-as-attire	Belief as Attire	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-02T17:13:56.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	APXkuLs2HjoCc88mC	105	132	142	false	0.000161	null	false	false	2024-03-08T11:23:53.236Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	6	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	dLBJ6BGabxdsXrxZG	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	2	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "DdgSyQoZXjj3KnF4N", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	132	0	0	9	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	nYkMLFpx77Rz3uo9c		SocialPreviewType	APXkuLs2HjoCc88mC	<p>I have so far distinguished between belief as <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/i3/making_beliefs_pay_rent_in_anticipated_experiences/">anticipation-controller</a>, <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/i4/belief_in_belief/">belief in belief</a>, <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/i6/professing_and_cheering/"...	I have so far distinguished between belief as anticipation-controller, belief in belief, professing and cheering. Of these, we might call anticipation-controlling beliefs "proper beliefs" and the other forms "improper belief". Proper belief can be wrong or irrational, as when someone genuinely anticipates that prayer ...	477	2.4.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
RmCjazjupRGcHSm5N	professing-and-cheering	Professing and Cheering	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-08-02T07:20:21.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	YYpiWcpfprJ2NsnzD	45	128	126	false	0.000144	null	false	false	2025-02-06T19:38:19.852Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	5	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	kzyriJkTdQkycFA3D	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "iP2X4jQNHMWHRNPne", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	128	0	0	10	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	RmCjazjupRGcHSm5N		SocialPreviewType	YYpiWcpfprJ2NsnzD	<p>I once attended a panel on the topic, “Are science and religion compatible?” One of the women on the panel, a pagan, held forth interminably upon how she believed that the Earth had been created when a giant primordial cow was born into the primordial abyss, who licked a primordial god into existence, whose descenda...	I once attended a panel on the topic, “Are science and religion compatible?” One of the women on the panel, a pagan, held forth interminably upon how she believed that the Earth had been created when a giant primordial cow was born into the primordial abyss, who licked a primordial god into existence, whose descendants...	720	2.2.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
NKaPFf98Y5otMbsPk	bayesian-judo	Bayesian Judo	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-07-31T05:53:13.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c6391edbcb4ac6367c11bd9	110	132	89	false	0.000105	null	false	false	2024-04-14T16:15:27.319Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	4	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	1	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "WH5ZmNSjZmK9SMj7k", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	132	0	0	15	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	NKaPFf98Y5otMbsPk		SocialPreviewType	5c6391edbcb4ac6367c11bd9	<p class="MsoNormal">You can have some fun with people whose <a href="/lw/i4/belief_in_belief/">anticipations get out of sync with what they believe they believe</a>.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I was once at a dinner party, trying to explain to a man what I did for a living, when he said: "I don't believe Artificial Inte...	You can have some fun with people whose anticipations get out of sync with what they believe they believe. I was once at a dinner party, trying to explain to a man what I did for a living, when he said: "I don't believe Artificial Intelligence is possible because only God can make a soul." At this point I must have b...	367	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
CqyJzDZWvGhhFJ7dY	belief-in-belief	Belief in Belief	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-07-29T17:49:43.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	JuZyMs5b2rDNFjAPv	178	197	222	false	0.000246	null	false	false	2025-05-12T09:19:27.448Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	12	2007-07-29T17:49:43.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	GHPDsvFEzps6kzhGp	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	5	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "YTCrHWYHAsAD74EHo", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	197	0	0	21	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	CqyJzDZWvGhhFJ7dY		SocialPreviewType	JuZyMs5b2rDNFjAPv	<p>Carl Sagan once told a <a href="http://www.godlessgeeks.com/LINKS/Dragon.htm">parable</a> of someone who comes to us and claims: “There is a dragon in my garage.” Fascinating! We reply that we wish to see this dragon—let us set out at once for the garage! “But wait,” the claimant says to us, “it is an <i>invisible</...	Carl Sagan once told a parable of someone who comes to us and claims: “There is a dragon in my garage.” Fascinating! We reply that we wish to see this dragon—let us set out at once for the garage! “But wait,” the claimant says to us, “it is an invisible dragon.” Now as Sagan points out, this doesn’t make the hypothesi...	1,362	2.2.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
a7n8GdKiAZRX86T5A	making-beliefs-pay-rent-in-anticipated-experiences	Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-07-28T22:59:48.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	mYao5XRDuPvRBLDKF	269	462	513	false	0.000553	null	false	false	2025-06-27T05:55:03.562Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	23	2007-07-28T22:59:48.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	JLMKfnnGEaXkTixAJ	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	4	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "SJFsFfFhE6m2ThAYJ", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	0	462	0	0	38	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	a7n8GdKiAZRX86T5A		SocialPreviewType	mYao5XRDuPvRBLDKF	<p>Thus begins the ancient parable:</p><p><i>If a tree falls in a forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? One says, “Yes it does, for it makes vibrations in the air.” Another says, “No it does not, for there is no auditory processing in any brain.”</i></p><p>If there’s a foundational skill in the martial art ...	Thus begins the ancient parable: If a tree falls in a forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound? One says, “Yes it does, for it makes vibrations in the air.” Another says, “No it does not, for there is no auditory processing in any brain.” If there’s a foundational skill in the martial art of rationality, a me...	1,112	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
gXgq2Fwm2s2GwhjF3	free-will-isn-t-a-concept-unless-you-mean-determinism	Free will isn’t a concept (unless you mean determinism)	null	false	false	false	null	jRRYAy2mQAHy2Mq3f	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-07-15T13:51:00.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	null	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c6392dcbcb4ac6367c170ff	1	2	3	false	0.000004	null	false	false	2024-06-25T18:16:58.629Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	0	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	1	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb1b8", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, ...	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	jRRYAy2mQAHy2Mq3f	katjagrace	2009-02-27T14:15:22.378Z	KatjaGrace	KatjaGrace	null	null	null	9,330	309	false	false	null	null	627	509	0	3	7	1	0	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	null	null	null	[ "trustLevel1", "canModeratePersonal", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum" ]	null	null	gXgq2Fwm2s2GwhjF3		SocialPreviewType	5c6392dcbcb4ac6367c170ff	<p>Imagine something happens. For instance you make a decision. There are three possibilities for this occurence:</p> <ol> <li>It could be related purely to other factors (determinism)</li> <li>It could be not related to other factors (randomness)</li> <li>It could be a combination of these (a mixture of determinism an...	Imagine something happens. For instance you make a decision. There are three possibilities for this occurence: 1. It could be related purely to other factors (determinism) 2. It could be not related to other factors (randomness) 3. It could be a combination of these (a mixture of determinism and randomness) None o...	367	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
48WeP7oTec3kBEada	two-more-things-to-unlearn-from-school	Two More Things to Unlearn from School	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-07-12T17:45:33.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c63917bbcb4ac6367c0ee89	157	144	174	false	0.000195	null	false	false	2022-04-09T23:41:44.177Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	14	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5gcpKG2XEAZGj5DEf", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 9, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" }, { ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	144	0	0	23	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	48WeP7oTec3kBEada		SocialPreviewType	5c63917bbcb4ac6367c0ee89	<p class="MsoNormal">In <a href="http://ben.casnocha.com/2007/07/three-things-to.html">Three Things to Unlearn from School</a>, Ben Casnocha cites Bill Bullard's list of three bad habits of thought: Attaching importance to personal opinions, solving given problems, and earning the approval of others. Bullard's proposed...	In Three Things to Unlearn from School, Ben Casnocha cites Bill Bullard's list of three bad habits of thought: Attaching importance to personal opinions, solving given problems, and earning the approval of others. Bullard's proposed alternatives don't look very good to me, but Bullard has surely identified some importa...	661	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
JCnYq4SBZ29zngRf4	open-thread-0	Open Thread	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-07-01T19:38:34.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	null	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c6391d0bcb4ac6367c11258	38	4	5	false	0.000006	null	false	false	2017-06-17T04:36:15.940Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	0	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	1	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "ABG8vt87eW4FFA6gD", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 3, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "qgdGA4ZEyW7zNdK84", "displayName": "Ruby" } ] }, "bas...	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	JCnYq4SBZ29zngRf4		SocialPreviewType	5c6391d0bcb4ac6367c11258	<p>By request of the community, an Open Thread for free-form comments, so long as they're still related to the basic project of this blog.</p> <p>A word on post requests:  You're free to ask, but the authors can't commit to posting on requested topics - it's hard enough to do the ones we have in mind already.</p>	By request of the community, an Open Thread for free-form comments, so long as they're still related to the basic project of this blog. A word on post requests: You're free to ask, but the authors can't commit to posting on requested topics - it's hard enough to do the ones we have in mind already.	55	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
28bAMAxhoX3bwbAKC	are-your-enemies-innately-evil	Are Your Enemies Innately Evil?	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-06-26T21:13:26.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	tPrFGRTfTh4FrAmYR	148	198	226	false	0.000248	null	false	false	2024-11-06T16:25:24.011Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	13	2007-06-26T21:13:26.000Z	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	DLdfGraXkdcEAyyfu	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	4	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "kdbs6xBndPkmrYAxM", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2017-01-12T07:44:...	null	null	false	null	null	0	198	0	0	28	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	28bAMAxhoX3bwbAKC		SocialPreviewType	tPrFGRTfTh4FrAmYR	<p>We see far too direct a correspondence between others’ actions and their inherent dispositions. We see unusual dispositions that exactly match the unusual behavior, rather than asking after real situations or imagined situations that could explain the behavior. We hypothesize mutants. </p> <p>When someone ...	We see far too direct a correspondence between others’ actions and their inherent dispositions. We see unusual dispositions that exactly match the unusual behavior, rather than asking after real situations or imagined situations that could explain the behavior. We hypothesize mutants. When someone actually offends us—...	909	2.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
DB6wbyrMugYMK5o6a	correspondence-bias	Correspondence Bias	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-06-25T00:58:26.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	2018-01-30T00:32:03.501Z	false	false	post	[]	null	null	GocoA3c9Pmp3DcnYA	49	96	107	false	0.000123	null	false	false	2021-01-06T23:50:54.952Z	null	rationality	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	5	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	tgym2YRj9YexRCtiQ	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "5f5c37ee1b5cdee568cfb157", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": null, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [] }, "baseScore": 0, "canEditUserIds": null, "core": false, "createdAt": "2020-09-11...	null	null	false	null	null	0	96	0	0	9	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	DB6wbyrMugYMK5o6a		SocialPreviewType	GocoA3c9Pmp3DcnYA	<blockquote><p>The correspondence bias is the tendency to draw inferences about a person’s unique and enduring dispositions from behaviors that can be entirely explained by the situations in which they occur.</p><p>—Gilbert and Malone<a href="#fn1x17"><sup>1</sup></a></p></blockquote><p>We tend to see far too direct a ...	> The correspondence bias is the tendency to draw inferences about a person’s unique and enduring dispositions from behaviors that can be entirely explained by the situations in which they occur. > > —Gilbert and Malone1 We tend to see far too direct a correspondence between others’ actions and personalities. When we...	832	2.1.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput
mgmvs6BT3dSNxmyP2	risk-free-bonds-aren-t	Risk-Free Bonds Aren't	null	false	false	false	null	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	null	true	false	false	false	Post	null	2007-06-22T22:30:00.000Z	null	false	false	2	2	null	false	false	post	[]	null	null	5c639264bcb4ac6367c14963	40	25	24	false	0.000025	null	false	false	2017-06-17T04:05:42.154Z	null	null	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	null	null	null	null	XtphY3uYHwruKqDyG	null	null	null	false	null	[]	null	2	null	false	false	null	null	true	false	false	null	null	null	null	null	null	null	false	namesAttachedReactions	false	[]	3	null	null	null	null	[ { "__typename": "Tag", "_id": "SrW9iP2j6Hi8R5PmT", "adminOnly": false, "afBaseScore": 6, "afExtendedScore": { "reacts": { "typo": null }, "usersWhoLiked": [ { "_id": "EQNTWXLKMeWMp2FQS", "displayName": "Ben Pace" } ] }, ...	null	null	false	null	null	0	25	0	0	4	0	nmk3nLpQE89dMRzzN	eliezer_yudkowsky	2009-02-23T21:58:56.739Z	Eliezer_Yudkowsky	Eliezer Yudkowsky	null	null	null	150,014	1,892	false	false	null	null	951	7,677	40	18	120	1	3,803	r38pkCm7wF4M44MDQ	User	reign-of-terror	[ "sBWszXPhPsNNemv4Q", "YBHSPmZEfyyY2E2au" ]	true	[ "trustLevel1", "alignmentVoters", "alignmentForum", "canModeratePersonal" ]	null	null	mgmvs6BT3dSNxmyP2		SocialPreviewType	5c639264bcb4ac6367c14963	<p>I've always been annoyed by the term "risk-free bonds rate", meaning the return on US Treasury bills.  Just because US bonds have not defaulted within their trading experience, people assume this is <em>impossible?</em>  A list of major governments in 1900 would probably put the Ottoman Empire or...	I've always been annoyed by the term "risk-free bonds rate", meaning the return on US Treasury bills. Just because US bonds have not defaulted within their trading experience, people assume this is impossible? A list of major governments in 1900 would probably put the Ottoman Empire or Austria-Hungary well ahead of t...	647	1.0.0	Revision	false	null	null	CrosspostOutput

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