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19,202
On the Logic of Causal Models
cs.AI
This paper explores the role of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a representation of conditional independence relationships. We show that DAGs offer polynomially sound and complete inference mechanisms for inferring conditional independence relationships from a given causal set of such relationships. As a consequence,...
computer science
19,203
The Optimality of Satisficing Solutions
cs.AI
This paper addresses a prevailing assumption in single-agent heuristic search theory- that problem-solving algorithms should guarantee shortest-path solutions, which are typically called optimal. Optimality implies a metric for judging solution quality, where the optimal solution is the solution with the highest qualit...
computer science
19,204
An Empirical Comparison of Three Inference Methods
cs.AI
In this paper, an empirical evaluation of three inference methods for uncertain reasoning is presented in the context of Pathfinder, a large expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node pathology. The inference procedures evaluated are (1) Bayes' theorem, assuming evidence is conditionally independent given each hypot...
computer science
19,205
Parallel Belief Revision
cs.AI
This paper describes a formal system of belief revision developed by Wolfgang Spohn and shows that this system has a parallel implementation that can be derived from an influence diagram in a manner similar to that in which Bayesian networks are derived. The proof rests upon completeness results for an axiomatization o...
computer science
19,206
Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis Using Fuzzy Influence Diagrams
cs.AI
The practice of stochastic sensitivity analysis described in the decision analysis literature is a testimonial to the need for considering deviations from precise point estimates of uncertainty. We propose the use of Bayesian fuzzy probabilities within an influence diagram computational scheme for performing sensitivit...
computer science
19,207
A Representation of Uncertainty to Aid Insight into Decision Models
cs.AI
Many real world models can be characterized as weak, meaning that there is significant uncertainty in both the data input and inferences. This lack of determinism makes it especially difficult for users of computer decision aids to understand and have confidence in the models. This paper presents a representation for u...
computer science
19,208
Rational Nonmonotonic Reasoning
cs.AI
Nonmonotonic reasoning is a pattern of reasoning that allows an agent to make and retract (tentative) conclusions from inconclusive evidence. This paper gives a possible-worlds interpretation of the nonmonotonic reasoning problem based on standard decision theory and the emerging probability logic. The system's central...
computer science
19,209
A Comparison of Decision Analysis and Expert Rules for Sequential Diagnosis
cs.AI
There has long been debate about the relative merits of decision theoretic methods and heuristic rule-based approaches for reasoning under uncertainty. We report an experimental comparison of the performance of the two approaches to troubleshooting, specifically to test selection for fault diagnosis. We use as experime...
computer science
19,210
Probabilistic Inference and Probabilistic Reasoning
cs.AI
Uncertainty enters into human reasoning and inference in at least two ways. It is reasonable to suppose that there will be roles for these distinct uses of uncertainty also in automated reasoning.
computer science
19,211
Probabilistic and Non-Monotonic Inference
cs.AI
(l) I have enough evidence to render the sentence S probable. (la) So, relative to what I know, it is rational of me to believe S. (2) Now that I have more evidence, S may no longer be probable. (2a) So now, relative to what I know, it is not rational of me to believe S. These seem a perfectly ordinary, common sense, p...
computer science
19,212
Epistemological Relevance and Statistical Knowledge
cs.AI
For many years, at least since McCarthy and Hayes (1969), writers have lamented, and attempted to compensate for, the alleged fact that we often do not have adequate statistical knowledge for governing the uncertainty of belief, for making uncertain inferences, and the like. It is hardly ever spelled out what "adequate...
computer science
19,213
Evidential Reasoning in a Network Usage Prediction Testbed
cs.AI
This paper reports on empirical work aimed at comparing evidential reasoning techniques. While there is prima facie evidence for some conclusions, this i6 work in progress; the present focus is methodology, with the goal that subsequent results be meaningful. The domain is a network of UNIX* cycle servers, and the task...
computer science
19,214
Justifying the Principle of Interval Constraints
cs.AI
When knowledge is obtained from a database, it is only possible to deduce confidence intervals for probability values. With confidence intervals replacing point values, the results in the set covering model include interval constraints for the probabilities of mutually exclusive and exhaustive explanations. The Princip...
computer science
19,215
Probabilistic Semantics and Defaults
cs.AI
There is much interest in providing probabilistic semantics for defaults but most approaches seem to suffer from one of two problems: either they require numbers, a problem defaults were intended to avoid, or they generate peculiar side effects. Rather than provide semantics for defaults, we address the problem default...
computer science
19,216
Decision Making with Linear Constraints on Probabilities
cs.AI
Techniques for decision making with knowledge of linear constraints on condition probabilities are examined. These constraints arise naturally in many situations: upper and lower condition probabilities are known; an ordering among the probabilities is determined; marginal probabilities or bounds on such probabilities ...
computer science
19,217
Maintenance in Probabilistic Knowledge-Based Systems
cs.AI
Recent developments using directed acyclical graphs (i.e., influence diagrams and Bayesian networks) for knowledge representation have lessened the problems of using probability in knowledge-based systems (KBS). Most current research involves the efficient propagation of new evidence, but little has been done concernin...
computer science
19,218
A Linear Approximation Method for Probabilistic Inference
cs.AI
An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on the Gaussian influence diagram, iterates over linear approximations to the infer...
computer science
19,219
An Axiomatic Framework for Bayesian and Belief-function Propagation
cs.AI
In this paper, we describe an abstract framework and axioms under which exact local computation of marginals is possible. The primitive objects of the framework are variables and valuations. The primitive operators of the framework are combination and marginalization. These operate on valuations. We state three axioms ...
computer science
19,220
A General Non-Probabilistic Theory of Inductive Reasoning
cs.AI
Probability theory, epistemically interpreted, provides an excellent, if not the best available account of inductive reasoning. This is so because there are general and definite rules for the change of subjective probabilities through information or experience; induction and belief change are one and same topic, after ...
computer science
19,221
Generating Decision Structures and Causal Explanations for Decision Making
cs.AI
This paper examines two related problems that are central to developing an autonomous decision-making agent, such as a robot. Both problems require generating structured representafions from a database of unstructured declarative knowledge that includes many facts and rules that are irrelevant in the problem context. T...
computer science
19,222
Updating Probabilities in Multiply-Connected Belief Networks
cs.AI
This paper focuses on probability updates in multiply-connected belief networks. Pearl has designed the method of conditioning, which enables us to apply his algorithm for belief updates in singly-connected networks to multiply-connected belief networks by selecting a loop-cutset for the network and instantiating these...
computer science
19,223
Handling uncertainty in a system for text-symbol context analysis
cs.AI
In pattern analysis, information regarding an object can often be drawn from its surroundings. This paper presents a method for handling uncertainty when using context of symbols and texts for analyzing technical drawings. The method is based on Dempster-Shafer theory and possibility theory.
computer science
19,224
Causal Networks: Semantics and Expressiveness
cs.AI
Dependency knowledge of the form "x is independent of y once z is known" invariably obeys the four graphoid axioms, examples include probabilistic and database dependencies. Often, such knowledge can be represented efficiently with graphical structures such as undirected graphs and directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In th...
computer science
19,225
MCE Reasoning in Recursive Causal Networks
cs.AI
A probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty is proposed based on the principle of Minimum Cross Entropy (MCE) and concept of Recursive Causal Model (RCM). The dependency and correlations among the variables are described in a special language BNDL (Belief Networks Description Language). Beliefs are propagated...
computer science
19,226
Nonmonotonic Reasoning via Possibility Theory
cs.AI
We introduce the operation of possibility qualification and show how. this modal-like operator can be used to represent "typical" or default knowledge in a theory of nonmonotonic reasoning. We investigate the representational power of this approach by looking at a number of prototypical problems from the nonmonotonic r...
computer science
19,227
Generalizing the Dempster-Shafer Theory to Fuzzy Sets
cs.AI
With the desire to apply the Dempster-Shafer theory to complex real world problems where the evidential strength is often imprecise and vague, several attempts have been made to generalize the theory. However, the important concept in the D-S theory that the belief and plausibility functions are lower and upper probabi...
computer science
19,228
Logical Fuzzy Optimization
cs.AI
We present a logical framework to represent and reason about fuzzy optimization problems based on fuzzy answer set optimization programming. This is accomplished by allowing fuzzy optimization aggregates, e.g., minimum and maximum in the language of fuzzy answer set optimization programming to allow minimization or max...
computer science
19,229
Modèle flou d'expression des préférences basé sur les CP-Nets
cs.AI
This article addresses the problem of expressing preferences in flexible queries while basing on a combination of the fuzzy logic theory and Conditional Preference Networks or CP-Nets.
computer science
19,230
Symmetry-Aware Marginal Density Estimation
cs.AI
The Rao-Blackwell theorem is utilized to analyze and improve the scalability of inference in large probabilistic models that exhibit symmetries. A novel marginal density estimator is introduced and shown both analytically and empirically to outperform standard estimators by several orders of magnitude. The developed th...
computer science
19,231
Is Shafer General Bayes?
cs.AI
This paper examines the relationship between Shafer's belief functions and convex sets of probability distributions. Kyburg's (1986) result showed that belief function models form a subset of the class of closed convex probability distributions. This paper emphasizes the importance of Kyburg's result by looking at simp...
computer science
19,232
Modifiable Combining Functions
cs.AI
Modifiable combining functions are a synthesis of two common approaches to combining evidence. They offer many of the advantages of these approaches and avoid some disadvantages. Because they facilitate the acquisition, representation, explanation, and modification of knowledge about combinations of evidence, they are ...
computer science
19,233
Dempster-Shafer vs. Probabilistic Logic
cs.AI
The combination of evidence in Dempster-Shafer theory is compared with the combination of evidence in probabilistic logic. Sufficient conditions are stated for these two methods to agree. It is then shown that these conditions are minimal in the sense that disagreement can occur when any one of them is removed. An exam...
computer science
19,234
Higher Order Probabilities
cs.AI
A number of writers have supposed that for the full specification of belief, higher order probabilities are required. Some have even supposed that there may be an unending sequence of higher order probabilities of probabilities of probabilities.... In the present paper we show that higher order probabilities can always...
computer science
19,235
Belief in Belief Functions: An Examination of Shafer's Canonical Examples
cs.AI
In the canonical examples underlying Shafer-Dempster theory, beliefs over the hypotheses of interest are derived from a probability model for a set of auxiliary hypotheses. Beliefs are derived via a compatibility relation connecting the auxiliary hypotheses to subsets of the primary hypotheses. A belief function differ...
computer science
19,236
Do We Need Higher-Order Probabilities and, If So, What Do They Mean?
cs.AI
The apparent failure of individual probabilistic expressions to distinguish uncertainty about truths from uncertainty about probabilistic assessments have prompted researchers to seek formalisms where the two types of uncertainties are given notational distinction. This paper demonstrates that the desired distinction i...
computer science
19,237
Bayesian Prediction for Artificial Intelligence
cs.AI
This paper shows that the common method used for making predictions under uncertainty in A1 and science is in error. This method is to use currently available data to select the best model from a given class of models-this process is called abduction-and then to use this model to make predictions about future data. The...
computer science
19,238
Can Evidence Be Combined in the Dempster-Shafer Theory
cs.AI
Dempster's rule of combination has been the most controversial part of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. In particular, Zadeh has reached a conjecture on the noncombinability of evidence from a relational model of the D-S theory. In this paper, we will describe another relational model where D-S masses are represented ...
computer science
19,239
An Interesting Uncertainty-Based Combinatoric Problem in Spare Parts Forecasting: The FRED System
cs.AI
The domain of spare parts forecasting is examined, and is found to present unique uncertainty based problems in the architectural design of a knowledge-based system. A mixture of different uncertainty paradigms is required for the solution, with an intriguing combinatoric problem arising from an uncertain choice of inf...
computer science
19,240
Bayesian Inference in Model-Based Machine Vision
cs.AI
This is a preliminary version of visual interpretation integrating multiple sensors in SUCCESSOR, an intelligent, model-based vision system. We pursue a thorough integration of hierarchical Bayesian inference with comprehensive physical representation of objects and their relations in a system for reasoning with geomet...
computer science
19,241
Using the Dempster-Shafer Scheme in a Diagnostic Expert System Shell
cs.AI
This paper discusses an expert system shell that integrates rule-based reasoning and the Dempster-Shafer evidence combination scheme. Domain knowledge is stored as rules with associated belief functions. The reasoning component uses a combination of forward and backward inferencing mechanisms to allow interaction with ...
computer science
19,242
Stochastic Simulation of Bayesian Belief Networks
cs.AI
This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling, and a method described by Pearl, called stochastic simulation. We first review the...
computer science
19,243
Temporal Reasoning About Uncertain Worlds
cs.AI
We present a program that manages a database of temporally scoped beliefs. The basic functionality of the system includes maintaining a network of constraints among time points, supporting a variety of fetches, mediating the application of causal rules, monitoring intervals of time for the addition of new facts, and ma...
computer science
19,244
A Perspective on Confidence and Its Use in Focusing Attention During Knowledge Acquisition
cs.AI
We present a representation of partial confidence in belief and preference that is consistent with the tenets of decision-theory. The fundamental insight underlying the representation is that if a person is not completely confident in a probability or utility assessment, additional modeling of the assessment may improv...
computer science
19,245
Practical Issues in Constructing a Bayes' Belief Network
cs.AI
Bayes belief networks and influence diagrams are tools for constructing coherent probabilistic representations of uncertain knowledge. The process of constructing such a network to represent an expert's knowledge is used to illustrate a variety of techniques which can facilitate the process of structuring and quantifyi...
computer science
19,246
NAIVE: A Method for Representing Uncertainty and Temporal Relationships in an Automated Reasoner
cs.AI
This paper describes NAIVE, a low-level knowledge representation language and inferencing process. NAIVE has been designed for reasoning about nondeterministic dynamic systems like those found in medicine. Knowledge is represented in a graph structure consisting of nodes, which correspond to the variables describing th...
computer science
19,247
Objective Probability
cs.AI
A distinction is sometimes made between "statistical" and "subjective" probabilities. This is based on a distinction between "unique" events and "repeatable" events. We argue that this distinction is untenable, since all events are "unique" and all events belong to "kinds", and offer a conception of probability for A1 ...
computer science
19,248
Coefficients of Relations for Probabilistic Reasoning
cs.AI
Definitions and notations with historical references are given for some numerical coefficients commonly used to quantify relations among collections of objects for the purpose of expressing approximate knowledge and probabilistic reasoning.
computer science
19,249
Satisfaction of Assumptions is a Weak Predictor of Performance
cs.AI
This paper demonstrates a methodology for examining the accuracy of uncertain inference systems (UIS), after their parameters have been optimized, and does so for several common UIS's. This methodology may be used to test the accuracy when either the prior assumptions or updating formulae are not exactly satisfied. Sur...
computer science
19,250
Structuring Causal Tree Models with Continuous Variables
cs.AI
This paper considers the problem of invoking auxiliary, unobservable variables to facilitate the structuring of causal tree models for a given set of continuous variables. Paralleling the treatment of bi-valued variables in [Pearl 1986], we show that if a collection of coupled variables are governed by a joint normal d...
computer science
19,251
Implementing Evidential Reasoning in Expert Systems
cs.AI
The Dempster-Shafer theory has been extended recently for its application to expert systems. However, implementing the extended D-S reasoning model in rule-based systems greatly complicates the task of generating informative explanations. By implementing GERTIS, a prototype system for diagnosing rheumatoid arthritis, w...
computer science
19,252
Decision Tree Induction Systems: A Bayesian Analysis
cs.AI
Decision tree induction systems are being used for knowledge acquisition in noisy domains. This paper develops a subjective Bayesian interpretation of the task tackled by these systems and the heuristic methods they use. It is argued that decision tree systems implicitly incorporate a prior belief that the simpler (in ...
computer science
19,253
The Automatic Training of Rule Bases that Use Numerical Uncertainty Representations
cs.AI
The use of numerical uncertainty representations allows better modeling of some aspects of human evidential reasoning. It also makes knowledge acquisition and system development, test, and modification more difficult. We propose that where possible, the assignment and/or refinement of rule weights should be performed a...
computer science
19,254
The Inductive Logic of Information Systems
cs.AI
An inductive logic can be formulated in which the elements are not propositions or probability distributions, but information systems. The logic is complete for information systems with binary hypotheses, i.e., it applies to all such systems. It is not complete for information systems with more than two hypotheses, but...
computer science
19,255
Automated Generation of Connectionist Expert Systems for Problems Involving Noise and Redundancy
cs.AI
When creating an expert system, the most difficult and expensive task is constructing a knowledge base. This is particularly true if the problem involves noisy data and redundant measurements. This paper shows how to modify the MACIE process for generating connectionist expert systems from training examples so that it ...
computer science
19,256
The Recovery of Causal Poly-Trees from Statistical Data
cs.AI
Poly-trees are singly connected causal networks in which variables may arise from multiple causes. This paper develops a method of recovering ply-trees from empirically measured probability distributions of pairs of variables. The method guarantees that, if the measured distributions are generated by a causal process s...
computer science
19,257
A Heuristic Bayesian Approach to Knowledge Acquisition: Application to Analysis of Tissue-Type Plasminogen Activator
cs.AI
This paper describes a heuristic Bayesian method for computing probability distributions from experimental data, based upon the multivariate normal form of the influence diagram. An example illustrates its use in medical technology assessment. This approach facilitates the integration of results from different studies,...
computer science
19,258
Theory-Based Inductive Learning: An Integration of Symbolic and Quantitative Methods
cs.AI
The objective of this paper is to propose a method that will generate a causal explanation of observed events in an uncertain world and then make decisions based on that explanation. Feedback can cause the explanation and decisions to be modified. I call the method Theory-Based Inductive Learning (T-BIL). T-BIL integra...
computer science
19,259
Using T-Norm Based Uncertainty Calculi in a Naval Situation Assessment Application
cs.AI
RUM (Reasoning with Uncertainty Module), is an integrated software tool based on a KEE, a frame system implemented in an object oriented language. RUM's architecture is composed of three layers: representation, inference, and control. The representation layer is based on frame-like data structures that capture the unce...
computer science
19,260
A Study of Associative Evidential Reasoning
cs.AI
Evidential reasoning is cast as the problem of simplifying the evidence-hypothesis relation and constructing combination formulas that possess certain testable properties. Important classes of evidence as identifiers, annihilators, and idempotents and their roles in determining binary operations on intervals of reals a...
computer science
19,261
A Measure-Free Approach to Conditioning
cs.AI
In an earlier paper, a new theory of measurefree "conditional" objects was presented. In this paper, emphasis is placed upon the motivation of the theory. The central part of this motivation is established through an example involving a knowledge-based system. In order to evaluate combination of evidence for this syste...
computer science
19,262
Convergent Deduction for Probabilistic Logic
cs.AI
This paper discusses the semantics and proof theory of Nilsson's probabilistic logic, outlining both the benefits of its well-defined model theory and the drawbacks of its proof theory. Within Nilsson's semantic framework, we derive a set of inference rules which are provably sound. The resulting proof system, in contr...
computer science
19,263
A Knowledge Engineer's Comparison of Three Evidence Aggregation Methods
cs.AI
The comparisons of uncertainty calculi from the last two Uncertainty Workshops have all used theoretical probabilistic accuracy as the sole metric. While mathematical correctness is important, there are other factors which should be considered when developing reasoning systems. These other factors include, among other ...
computer science
19,264
Towards Solving the Multiple Extension Problem: Combining Defaults and Probabilities
cs.AI
The multiple extension problem arises frequently in diagnostic and default inference. That is, we can often use any of a number of sets of defaults or possible hypotheses to explain observations or make Predictions. In default inference, some extensions seem to be simply wrong and we use qualitative techniques to weed ...
computer science
19,265
Problem Structure and Evidential Reasoning
cs.AI
In our previous series of studies to investigate the role of evidential reasoning in the RUBRIC system for full-text document retrieval (Tong et al., 1985; Tong and Shapiro, 1985; Tong and Appelbaum, 1987), we identified the important role that problem structure plays in the overall performance of the system. In this p...
computer science
19,266
The Role of Calculi in Uncertain Inference Systems
cs.AI
Much of the controversy about methods for automated decision making has focused on specific calculi for combining beliefs or propagating uncertainty. We broaden the debate by (1) exploring the constellation of secondary tasks surrounding any primary decision problem, and (2) identifying knowledge engineering concerns t...
computer science
19,267
The Role of Tuning Uncertain Inference Systems
cs.AI
This study examined the effects of "tuning" the parameters of the incremental function of MYCIN, the independent function of PROSPECTOR, a probability model that assumes independence, and a simple additive linear equation. me parameters of each of these models were optimized to provide solutions which most nearly appro...
computer science
19,268
Implementing a Bayesian Scheme for Revising Belief Commitments
cs.AI
Our previous work on classifying complex ship images [1,2] has evolved into an effort to develop software tools for building and solving generic classification problems. Managing the uncertainty associated with feature data and other evidence is an important issue in this endeavor. Bayesian techniques for managing unce...
computer science
19,269
Integrating Logical and Probabilistic Reasoning for Decision Making
cs.AI
We describe a representation and a set of inference methods that combine logic programming techniques with probabilistic network representations for uncertainty (influence diagrams). The techniques emphasize the dynamic construction and solution of probabilistic and decision-theoretic models for complex and uncertain d...
computer science
19,270
Compiling Fuzzy Logic Control Rules to Hardware Implementations
cs.AI
A major aspect of human reasoning involves the use of approximations. Particularly in situations where the decision-making process is under stringent time constraints, decisions are based largely on approximate, qualitative assessments of the situations. Our work is concerned with the application of approximate reasoni...
computer science
19,271
Steps Towards Programs that Manage Uncertainty
cs.AI
Reasoning under uncertainty in Al hats come to mean assessing the credibility of hypotheses inferred from evidence. But techniques for assessing credibility do not tell a problem solver what to do when it is uncertain. This is the focus of our current research. We have developed a medical expert system called MUM, for ...
computer science
19,272
An Algorithm for Computing Probabilistic Propositions
cs.AI
A method for computing probabilistic propositions is presented. It assumes the availability of a single external routine for computing the probability of one instantiated variable, given a conjunction of other instantiated variables. In particular, the method allows belief network algorithms to calculate general probab...
computer science
19,273
Combining Symbolic and Numeric Approaches to Uncertainty Management
cs.AI
A complete approach to reasoning under uncertainty requires support for incremental and interactive formulation and revision of, as well as reasoning with, models of the problem domain capable of representing our uncertainty. We present a hybrid reasoning scheme which combines symbolic and numeric methods for uncertain...
computer science
19,274
Explanation of Probabilistic Inference for Decision Support Systems
cs.AI
An automated explanation facility for Bayesian conditioning aimed at improving user acceptance of probability-based decision support systems has been developed. The domain-independent facility is based on an information processing perspective on reasoning about conditional evidence that accounts both for biased and nor...
computer science
19,275
Efficient Inference on Generalized Fault Diagrams
cs.AI
The generalized fault diagram, a data structure for failure analysis based on the influence diagram, is defined. Unlike the fault tree, this structure allows for dependence among the basic events and replicated logical elements. A heuristic procedure is developed for efficient processing of these structures.
computer science
19,276
Reasoning About Beliefs and Actions Under Computational Resource Constraints
cs.AI
Although many investigators affirm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis defined by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete normative analysis impossible. We attempt to move discussion beyond the debate ...
computer science
19,277
Advantages and a Limitation of Using LEG Nets in a Real-TIme Problem
cs.AI
After experimenting with a number of non-probabilistic methods for dealing with uncertainty many researchers reaffirm a preference for probability methods [1] [2], although this remains controversial. The importance of being able to form decisions from incomplete data in diagnostic problems has highlighted probabilisti...
computer science
19,278
Logical Fuzzy Preferences
cs.AI
We present a unified logical framework for representing and reasoning about both quantitative and qualitative preferences in fuzzy answer set programming, called fuzzy answer set optimization programs. The proposed framework is vital to allow defining quantitative preferences over the possible outcomes of qualitative p...
computer science
19,279
Nested Aggregates in Answer Sets: An Application to a Priori Optimization
cs.AI
We allow representing and reasoning in the presence of nested multiple aggregates over multiple variables and nested multiple aggregates over functions involving multiple variables in answer sets, precisely, in answer set optimization programming and in answer set programming. We show the applicability of the answer se...
computer science
19,280
Knowledge Engineering Within A Generalized Bayesian Framework
cs.AI
During the ongoing debate over the representation of uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Cheeseman, Lemmer, Pearl, and others have argued that probability theory, and in particular the Bayesian theory, should be used as the basis for the inference mechanisms of Expert Systems dealing with uncertainty. In order to p...
computer science
19,281
Taxonomy, Structure, and Implementation of Evidential Reasoning
cs.AI
The fundamental elements of evidential reasoning problems are described, followed by a discussion of the structure of various types of problems. Bayesian inference networks and state space formalism are used as the tool for problem representation. A human-oriented decision making cycle for solving evidential reasonin...
computer science
19,282
Probabilistic Reasoning About Ship Images
cs.AI
One of the most important aspects of current expert systems technology is the ability to make causal inferences about the impact of new evidence. When the domain knowledge and problem knowledge are uncertain and incomplete Bayesian reasoning has proven to be an effective way of forming such inferences [3,4,8]. While se...
computer science
19,283
Towards The Inductive Acquisition of Temporal Knowledge
cs.AI
The ability to predict the future in a given domain can be acquired by discovering empirically from experience certain temporal patterns that tend to repeat unerringly. Previous works in time series analysis allow one to make quantitative predictions on the likely values of certain linear variables. Since certain types...
computer science
19,284
Some Extensions of Probabilistic Logic
cs.AI
In [12], Nilsson proposed the probabilistic logic in which the truth values of logical propositions are probability values between 0 and 1. It is applicable to any logical system for which the consistency of a finite set of propositions can be established. The probabilistic inference scheme reduces to the ordinary logi...
computer science
19,285
Predicting The Performance of Minimax and Product in Game-Tree
cs.AI
The discovery that the minimax decision rule performs poorly in some games has sparked interest in possible alternatives to minimax. Until recently, the only games in which minimax was known to perform poorly were games which were mainly of theoretical interest. However, this paper reports results showing poor performa...
computer science
19,286
Reasoning With Uncertain Knowledge
cs.AI
A model of knowledge representation is described in which propositional facts and the relationships among them can be supported by other facts. The set of knowledge which can be supported is called the set of cognitive units, each having associated descriptions of their explicit and implicit support structures, summari...
computer science
19,287
Models vs. Inductive Inference for Dealing With Probabilistic Knowledge
cs.AI
Two different approaches to dealing with probabilistic knowledge are examined -models and inductive inference. Examples of the first are: influence diagrams [1], Bayesian networks [2], log-linear models [3, 4]. Examples of the second are: games-against nature [5, 6] varieties of maximum-entropy methods [7, 8, 9], and t...
computer science
19,288
Towards a General-Purpose Belief Maintenance System
cs.AI
There currently exists a gap between the theories proposed by the probability and uncertainty and the needs of Artificial Intelligence research. These theories primarily address the needs of expert systems, using knowledge structures which must be pre-compiled and remain static in structure during runtime. Many Al syst...
computer science
19,289
Planning, Scheduling, and Uncertainty in the Sequence of Future Events
cs.AI
Scheduling in the factory setting is compounded by computational complexity and temporal uncertainty. Together, these two factors guarantee that the process of constructing an optimal schedule will be costly and the chances of executing that schedule will be slight. Temporal uncertainty in the task execution time can b...
computer science
19,290
Deriving And Combining Continuous Possibility Functions in the Framework of Evidential Reasoning
cs.AI
To develop an approach to utilizing continuous statistical information within the Dempster- Shafer framework, we combine methods proposed by Strat and by Shafero We first derive continuous possibility and mass functions from probability-density functions. Then we propose a rule for combining such evidence that is simpl...
computer science
19,291
Non-Monotonicity in Probabilistic Reasoning
cs.AI
We start by defining an approach to non-monotonic probabilistic reasoning in terms of non-monotonic categorical (true-false) reasoning. We identify a type of non-monotonic probabilistic reasoning, akin to default inheritance, that is commonly found in practice, especially in "evidential" and "Bayesian" reasoning. We fo...
computer science
19,292
Flexible Interpretations: A Computational Model for Dynamic Uncertainty Assessment
cs.AI
The investigations reported in this paper center on the process of dynamic uncertainty assessment during interpretation tasks in real domain. In particular, we are interested here in the nature of the control structure of computer programs that can support multiple interpretation and smooth transitions between them, in...
computer science
19,293
The Myth of Modularity in Rule-Based Systems
cs.AI
In this paper, we examine the concept of modularity, an often cited advantage of the ruled-based representation methodology. We argue that the notion of modularity consists of two distinct concepts which we call syntactic modularity and semantic modularity. We argue that when reasoning under certainty, it is reasonable...
computer science
19,294
An Axiomatic Framework for Belief Updates
cs.AI
In the 1940's, a physicist named Cox provided the first formal justification for the axioms of probability based on the subjective or Bayesian interpretation. He showed that if a measure of belief satisfies several fundamental properties, then the measure must be some monotonic transformation of a probability. In this ...
computer science
19,295
Evidence as Opinions of Experts
cs.AI
We describe a viewpoint on the Dempster/Shafer 'Theory of Evidence', and provide an interpretation which regards the combination formulas as statistics of the opinions of "experts". This is done by introducing spaces with binary operations that are simpler to interpret or simpler to implement than the standard combinat...
computer science
19,296
Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis
cs.AI
This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the sp...
computer science
19,297
Knowledge and Uncertainty
cs.AI
One purpose -- quite a few thinkers would say the main purpose -- of seeking knowledge about the world is to enhance our ability to make good decisions. An item of knowledge that can make no conceivable difference with regard to anything we might do would strike many as frivolous. Whether or not we want to be philosoph...
computer science
19,298
An Application of Non-Monotonic Probabilistic Reasoning to Air Force Threat Correlation
cs.AI
Current approaches to expert systems' reasoning under uncertainty fail to capture the iterative revision process characteristic of intelligent human reasoning. This paper reports on a system, called the Non-monotonic Probabilist, or NMP (Cohen, et al., 1985). When its inferences result in substantial conflict, NMP exam...
computer science
19,299
Bayesian Inference for Radar Imagery Based Surveillance
cs.AI
We are interested in creating an automated or semi-automated system with the capability of taking a set of radar imagery, collection parameters and a priori map and other tactical data, and producing likely interpretations of the possible military situations given the available evidence. This paper is concerned with th...
computer science
19,300
Computing Reference Classes
cs.AI
For any system with limited statistical knowledge, the combination of evidence and the interpretation of sampling information require the determination of the right reference class (or of an adequate one). The present note (1) discusses the use of reference classes in evidential reasoning, and (2) discusses implementat...
computer science
19,301
An Uncertainty Management Calculus for Ordering Searches in Distributed Dynamic Databases
cs.AI
MINDS is a distributed system of cooperating query engines that customize, document retrieval for each user in a dynamic environment. It improves its performance and adapts to changing patterns of document distribution by observing system-user interactions and modifying the appropriate certainty factors, which act as s...
computer science