Daily Papers

Multi-agent LLM systems are often expected to improve as team size increases, yet the scaling behavior may depend on task structure. Our central contribution is to introduce Steiner's taxonomy of group tasks as a framework for analyzing multi-agent LLM scaling and focusing the analysis on disjunctive and compensatory tasks. We model independently sampled agents as conditionally independent given the item, which yields their large-team limits: plurality voting converges to the model's modal answer, and averaging converges to the model's item-level bias. Across selected representative benchmarks, 13 open-weight models, and teams of up to 30 agents, we find qualitatively different scaling behavior. On disjunctive tasks, the probability that at least one agent is correct grows by 5-20 points with team size, but plurality voting over agents that answer directly realises almost none of this potential, as the model predicts to within 0.5 points on average. Multi-round revision raises accuracy considerably, yet the gain is nearly the same with one peer as with 29. In contrast, scaling provides little benefit on Fermi estimation, despite its natural suitability for aggregation: item-level biases shared across the samples of a model account for about 87% of the squared error, so averaging reduces error by only about 6%. Combining model families helps on Fermi estimation but does not surpass the strongest member on disjunctive tasks. These results show that task structure, together with the mechanism combining member outputs, is a fundamental determinant of team scaling.

People use language models for practical questions whose answers are difficult to verify. We show that models exhibit covert value leakage: the information they provide is influenced by their own values, without this influence being disclosed to the user. In one of our evaluations, the user is considering investing in an AI company and wants to know how likely the AI bubble is to pop. Claude Opus 4.8 gives a lower probability when the company under consideration is Anthropic rather than OpenAI. Yet Claude mostly fails to disclose this influence to the user. Covert value leakage is a form of misalignment because it goes against the user's preferences and is likely to mislead them. To investigate this phenomenon, we introduce a suite of evaluations to quantify value leakage and whether models disclose it. We find that models are influenced by different types of values, including preferences for morally good outcomes, for the company that developed them, and for some human leisure activities over others. We often observe large differences among frontier models on the same evaluation. For example, on a Fermi-estimation task, Claude models falsely claim to give unbiased answers in their chain-of-thought, while Qwen models explain how their values bias their answers. Value leakage is a failure mode distinct from sycophancy and reward hacking, and current alignment training and evaluations do not adequately address it.

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT, hereafter LAT), the primary instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) mission, is an imaging, wide field-of-view, high-energy γ-ray telescope, covering the energy range from 20 MeV to more than 300 GeV. During the first years of the mission the LAT team has gained considerable insight into the in-flight performance of the instrument. Accordingly, we have updated the analysis used to reduce LAT data for public release as well as the Instrument Response Functions (IRFs), the description of the instrument performance provided for data analysis. In this paper we describe the effects that motivated these updates. Furthermore, we discuss how we originally derived IRFs from Monte Carlo simulations and later corrected those IRFs for discrepancies observed between flight and simulated data. We also give details of the validations performed using flight data and quantify the residual uncertainties in the IRFs. Finally, we describe techniques the LAT team has developed to propagate those uncertainties into estimates of the systematic errors on common measurements such as fluxes and spectra of astrophysical sources.

We reconstruct the extra-galactic gamma-ray source-count distribution, or dN/dS, of resolved and unresolved sources by adopting machine learning techniques. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network on synthetic 2-dimensional sky-maps, which are built by varying parameters of underlying source-counts models and incorporate the Fermi-LAT instrumental response functions. The trained neural network is then applied to the Fermi-LAT data, from which we estimate the source count distribution down to flux levels a factor of 50 below the Fermi-LAT threshold. We perform our analysis using 14 years of data collected in the (1,10) GeV energy range. The results we obtain show a source count distribution which, in the resolved regime, is in excellent agreement with the one derived from catalogued sources, and then extends as dN/dS sim S^{-2} in the unresolved regime, down to fluxes of 5 cdot 10^{-12} cm^{-2} s^{-1}. The neural network architecture and the devised methodology have the flexibility to enable future analyses to study the energy dependence of the source-count distribution.

(Abridged) The Large Area Telescope (Fermi/LAT, hereafter LAT), the primary instrument on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi) mission, is an imaging, wide field-of-view, high-energy gamma-ray telescope, covering the energy range from below 20 MeV to more than 300 GeV. This paper describes the LAT, its pre-flight expected performance, and summarizes the key science objectives that will be addressed. On-orbit performance will be presented in detail in a subsequent paper. The LAT is a pair-conversion telescope with a precision tracker and calorimeter, each consisting of a 4x4 array of 16 modules, a segmented anticoincidence detector that covers the tracker array, and a programmable trigger and data acquisition system. Each tracker module has a vertical stack of 18 x,y tracking planes, including two layers (x and y) of single-sided silicon strip detectors and high-Z converter material (tungsten) per tray. Every calorimeter module has 96 CsI(Tl) crystals, arranged in an 8 layer hodoscopic configuration with a total depth of 8.6 radiation lengths. The aspect ratio of the tracker (height/width) is 0.4 allowing a large field-of-view (2.4 sr). Data obtained with the LAT are intended to (i) permit rapid notification of high-energy gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and transients and facilitate monitoring of variable sources, (ii) yield an extensive catalog of several thousand high-energy sources obtained from an all-sky survey, (iii) measure spectra from 20 MeV to more than 50 GeV for several hundred sources, (iv) localize point sources to 0.3 - 2 arc minutes, (v) map and obtain spectra of extended sources such as SNRs, molecular clouds, and nearby galaxies, (vi) measure the diffuse isotropic gamma-ray background up to TeV energies, and (vii) explore the discovery space for dark matter.

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

In this paper we introduce the concept of what we call "NUDAR" (NeUtrino Direction and Ranging), making the point that measurements of the observed energy and direction vectors can be employed to passively deduce the exact three-dimensional location and thermal power of geophysical and anthropogenic neutrino sources from even a single detector. We present the most precise background estimates to date, all handled in full three dimensions, as functions of depth and geographical location. For the present calculations, we consider a hypothetical 138 kiloton detector which can be transported to an ocean site and deployed to an operational depth. We present a Bayesian estimation framework to incorporate any a priori knowledge of the reactor that we are trying to detect, as well as the estimated uncertainty in the background and the oscillation parameters. Most importantly, we fully employ the knowledge of the reactor spectrum and the distance-dependent effects of neutrino oscillations on such spectra. The latter, in particular, makes possible determination of range from one location, given adequate signal statistics. Further, we explore the rich potential of improving detection with even modest improvements in individual neutrino direction determination. We conclude that a 300 MWth reactor can indeed be geolocated, and its operating power estimated with one or two detectors in the hundred kiloton class at ranges out to a few hundred kilometers. We note that such detectors would have natural and non-interfering utility for scientific studies of geo-neutrinos, neutrino oscillations, and astrophysical neutrinos. This motivates the development of cost effective methods of constructing and deploying such next generation detectors.

Ultra-high-energy neutrinos and cosmic rays are excellent probes of astroparticle physics phenomena. For astroparticle physics analyses, robust and accurate reconstruction of signal parameters such as arrival direction and energy is essential. Radio detection is an established detector concept explored by many observatories; however, current reconstruction methods ignore bin-to-bin noise correlations, which limits reconstruction resolution and, so far, has prevented calculations of event-by-event uncertainties. In this work, we present a likelihood description of neutrino or cosmic-ray signals in radio detectors with correlated noise, as present in all neutrino and cosmic-ray radio detectors. We demonstrate, with simulation studies of both neutrinos and cosmic-ray radio signals, that signal parameters such as energy and direction, including event-by-event uncertainties with correct coverage, can be obtained. This method reduces reconstruction uncertainties and biases compared to previous approaches. Additionally, the Likelihood can be used for event selection and enables differentiable end-to-end detector optimization. The reconstruction code is available through the open-source software NuRadioReco.

We present Monte Carlo (MC) simulation results from a study of a compact plastic-scintillator detector suitable for imaging fast neutrons in the 1 -- 10 MeV energy range: the miniTimeCube (mTC). Originally designed for antineutrino detection, the mTC consists of 24 MultiChannel Plate (MCP) photodetectors surrounding a 13 cm cube of boron-doped plastic scintillator. Our simulation results show that waveform digitization of 1536 optically sensitive channels surrounding the scintillator should allow for spatiotemporal determination of individual neutron-proton scatters in the detector volume to thicksim100 picoseconds and thicksim5 mm. A Bayesian estimation framework is presented for multiple-scatter reconstruction, and is used to estimate the incoming direction and energy of simulated individual neutrons. Finally, we show how populations of reconstructed neutrons can be used to estimate the direction and energy spectrum of nearby simulated neutron sources.

Fermi operator expansion (FOE) methods are powerful alternatives to diagonalization type methods for solving Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT). One example is the pole expansion and selected inversion (PEXSI) method, which approximates the Fermi operator by rational matrix functions and reduces the computational complexity to at most quadratic scaling for solving KSDFT. Unlike diagonalization type methods, the chemical potential often cannot be directly read off from the result of a single step of evaluation of the Fermi operator. Hence multiple evaluations are needed to be sequentially performed to compute the chemical potential to ensure the correct number of electrons within a given tolerance. This hinders the performance of FOE methods in practice. In this paper we develop an efficient and robust strategy to determine the chemical potential in the context of the PEXSI method. The main idea of the new method is not to find the exact chemical potential at each self-consistent-field (SCF) iteration iteration, but to dynamically and rigorously update the upper and lower bounds for the true chemical potential, so that the chemical potential reaches its convergence along the SCF iteration. Instead of evaluating the Fermi operator for multiple times sequentially, our method uses a two-level strategy that evaluates the Fermi operators in parallel. In the regime of full parallelization, the wall clock time of each SCF iteration is always close to the time for one single evaluation of the Fermi operator, even when the initial guess is far away from the converged solution. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method using examples with metallic and insulating characters, as well as results from ab initio molecular dynamics.

We here propose a machine learning approach for monitoring particle detectors in real-time. The goal is to assess the compatibility of incoming experimental data with a reference dataset, characterising the data behaviour under normal circumstances, via a likelihood-ratio hypothesis test. The model is based on a modern implementation of kernel methods, nonparametric algorithms that can learn any continuous function given enough data. The resulting approach is efficient and agnostic to the type of anomaly that may be present in the data. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of this strategy on multivariate data from drift tube chamber muon detectors.

We propose a physics-informed neural particle method (PINN--PM) for the spatially homogeneous Landau equation. The method adopts a Lagrangian interacting-particle formulation and jointly parameterizes the time-dependent score and the characteristic flow map with neural networks. Instead of advancing particles through explicit time stepping, the Landau dynamics is enforced via a continuous-time residual defined along particle trajectories. This design removes time-discretization error and yields a mesh-free solver that can be queried at arbitrary times without sequential integration. We establish a rigorous stability analysis in an L^2_v framework. The deviation between learned and exact characteristics is controlled by three interpretable sources: (i) score approximation error, (ii) empirical particle approximation error, and (iii) the physics residual of the neural flow. This trajectory estimate propagates to density reconstruction, where we derive an L^2_v error bound for kernel density estimators combining classical bias--variance terms with a trajectory-induced contribution. Using Hyvarinen's identity, we further relate the oracle score-matching gap to the L^2_v score error and show that the empirical loss concentrates at the Monte Carlo rate, yielding computable a posteriori accuracy certificates. Numerical experiments on analytical benchmarks, including the two- and three-dimensional BKW solutions, as well as reference-free configurations, demonstrate stable transport, preservation of macroscopic invariants, and competitive or improved accuracy compared with time-stepping score-based particle and blob methods while using significantly fewer particles.

Recently, the statistical effect of fermionic superradiance is approved by series of experiments both in free space and in a cavity. The Pauli blocking effect can be visualized by a 1/2 scaling of Dicke transition critical pumping strength against particle number Nat for fermions in a trap. However, the Fermi surface nesting effect, which manifests the enhancement of superradiance by Fermi statistics is still very hard to be identified. Here we studied the influence of localized fermions on the trap edge when both pumping optical lattice and the trap are presented. We find due to localization, the statistical effect in superradiant transition is enhanced. Two new scalings of critical pumping strength are observed as 4/3, and 2/3 for mediate particle number, and the Pauli blocking scaling 1/3 (2d case) in large particle number limit is unaffected. Further, we find the 4/3 scaling is subject to a power law increasing with rising ratio between recoil energy and trap frequency in pumping laser direction. The divergence of this scaling of critical pumping strength against N_{rm at} in E_R/omega_xrightarrow+infty limit can be identified as the Fermi surface nesting effect. Thus we find a practical experimental scheme for visualizing the long-desired Fermi surface nesting effect with the help of trap induced localization in a two-dimensional Fermi gas in a cavity.

Estimating the symbolic or analytical form of probability density functions (PDFs) from observed samples is a fundamental challenge in statistical and computational modelling. This process is critical for deriving interpretable and generalizable relationships characterizing the underlying phenomenon. Traditionally, this estimation depends strongly on domain expertise and prior field-specific knowledge, with experts selecting appropriate functional forms or parametric families based on empirical evidence and theoretical understanding. The coefficients of these forms are then typically determined through parameter estimation. In this paper, we develop a framework for estimating symbolic expressions of unnormalized distributions from observed samples using domain-specific prior knowledge, such as the range of interactions and a predefined set of primitive functions. We integrate deep generative models with symbolic regression (SR), incorporating inductive biases, such as factorizing large distributions, to keep the problem tractable. The deep generative models we examine include likelihood-based models, viz., flow models, and score-based models. Experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed framework for estimating density functions for multivariate toy distributions as well as lattices from computational physics, namely, XY model and ϕ^4 theory. When applied to the renormalization problem in ϕ^4 theory, the proposed framework estimates compact symbolic approximations of the hamiltonian function at different scales directly from samples, yielding expressions that may be challenging to derive using traditional perturbative or analytic approaches in nonperturbative settings.

The antenna-elements that make up a radio interferometer form a spatial filter that samples components of the Fourier transform of a target radio astronomical source brightness. Along the signal path, there are multiplicative and additive perturbation effects that alter the signal and that should be corrected. The process of mitigating these perturbation effects is called calibration. In this work, we develop a new and fast Maximum Likelihood based estimator of these perturbation effects using the Exponential Map and Lie groups. To evaluate its performance, we compare it to the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound and, to test the estimation time, we compare it with the Expectation Maximization algorithm, another fast Maximum Likelihood estimator. Finally, we apply our estimator to a real observation of the protoplanetary disk AS 209 made with the Submillimeter Array. We found that our proposed estimator meets the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound and it was approximately 40 times faster than the Expectation Maximization algorithm.

This thesis addresses a fundamental problem in deformation quantization: the difficulty of calculating the star-exponential, the symbol of the evolution operator, due to convergence issues. Inspired by the formalism that connects the star-exponential with the quantum propagator for bosonic systems, this work develops the analogous extension for the fermionic case. A rigorous method, based on Grassmann variables and coherent states, is constructed to obtain a closed-form expression for the fermionic star-exponential from its associated propagator. As a primary application, a fermionic version of the Feynman-Kac formula is derived within this formalism, allowing for the calculation of the ground state energy directly in phase space. Finally, the method is validated by successfully applying it to the simple and driven harmonic oscillators, where it is demonstrated that a simplified ("naive") approach (with an ad-hoc "remediation") is a valid weak-coupling limit of the rigorous ("meticulous") formalism, thereby providing a new and powerful computational tool for the study of fermionic systems.

The estimation of repeatedly nested expectations is a challenging task that arises in many real-world systems. However, existing methods generally suffer from high computational costs when the number of nestings becomes large. Fix any non-negative integer D for the total number of nestings. Standard Monte Carlo methods typically cost at least O(varepsilon^{-(2+D)}) and sometimes O(varepsilon^{-2(1+D)}) to obtain an estimator up to varepsilon-error. More advanced methods, such as multilevel Monte Carlo, currently only exist for D = 1. In this paper, we propose a novel Monte Carlo estimator called READ, which stands for "Recursive Estimator for Arbitrary Depth.'' Our estimator has an optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2}) for every fixed D under suitable assumptions, and a nearly optimal computational cost of O(varepsilon^{-2(1 + delta)}) for any 0 < delta < frac12 under much more general assumptions. Our estimator is also unbiased, which makes it easy to parallelize. The key ingredients in our construction are an observation of the problem's recursive structure and the recursive use of the randomized multilevel Monte Carlo method.

We propose a direct estimation method for R\'{e}nyi and f-divergence measures based on a new graph theoretical interpretation. Suppose that we are given two sample sets X and Y, respectively with N and M samples, where eta:=M/N is a constant value. Considering the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) graph of Y in the joint data set (X,Y), we show that the average powered ratio of the number of X points to the number of Y points among all k-NN points is proportional to R\'{e}nyi divergence of X and Y densities. A similar method can also be used to estimate f-divergence measures. We derive bias and variance rates, and show that for the class of gamma-H\"{o}lder smooth functions, the estimator achieves the MSE rate of O(N^{-2gamma/(gamma+d)}). Furthermore, by using a weighted ensemble estimation technique, for density functions with continuous and bounded derivatives of up to the order d, and some extra conditions at the support set boundary, we derive an ensemble estimator that achieves the parametric MSE rate of O(1/N). Our estimators are more computationally tractable than other competing estimators, which makes them appealing in many practical applications.

Since the mid-eighties there has been an accumulation of metallic materials whose thermodynamic and transport properties differ significantly from those predicted by Fermi liquid theory. Examples of these so-called non-Fermi liquids include the strange metal phase of high transition temperature cuprates, and heavy fermion systems near a quantum phase transition. We report on a class of non-Fermi liquids discovered using gauge/gravity duality. The low energy behavior of these non-Fermi liquids is shown to be governed by a nontrivial infrared (IR) fixed point which exhibits nonanalytic scaling behavior only in the temporal direction. Within this class we find examples whose single-particle spectral function and transport behavior resemble those of strange metals. In particular, the contribution from the Fermi surface to the conductivity is inversely proportional to the temperature. In our treatment these properties can be understood as being controlled by the scaling dimension of the fermion operator in the emergent IR fixed point.

We present a neural network emulator to constrain the thermal parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at 5.4z6.0 using the Lyman-displaystylealpha (Lydisplaystylealpha) forest flux auto-correlation function. Our auto-differentiable JAX-based framework accelerates the surrogate model generation process using approximately 100 sparsely sampled Nyx hydrodynamical simulations with varying combinations of thermal parameters, i.e., the temperature at mean density T_{{0}}, the slope of the temperaturedisplaystyle-density relation displaystylegamma, and the mean transmission flux langle{F}{rangle}. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1.0% across the specified redshift range. Bayesian inference of the IGM thermal parameters, incorporating emulator uncertainty propagation, is further expedited using NumPyro Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We compare both the inference results and computational cost of our framework with the traditional nearest-neighbor interpolation approach applied to the same set of mock Lyalpha flux. By examining the credibility contours of the marginalized posteriors for T_{{0}},gamma,and{langle}{F}{rangle} obtained using the emulator, the statistical reliability of measurements is established through inference on 100 realistic mock data sets of the auto-correlation function.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We reanalyze the spectral lag data for GRB 160625B using frequentist inference in order to constrain the energy scale (E_{QG}) of Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV). For this purpose, we use profile likelihood to deal with the astrophysical nuisance parameters. This is in contrast to Bayesian inference implemented in previous works, where marginalization was carried out over the nuisance parameters. We show that with profile likelihood, we do not find a global minimum for chi^2 as a function of E_{QG} below the Planck scale for both linear and quadratic models of LIV, whereas bounded credible intervals were previously obtained using Bayesian inference. Therefore, we can set one-sided lower limits in a straightforward manner. We find that E_{QG} geq 2.55 times 10^{16} GeV and E_{QG} geq 1.85 times 10^7 GeV at 95\% c.l., for linear and quadratic LIV, respectively. Therefore, this is the first proof-of-principles application of profile likelihood method to the analysis of GRB spectral lag data to constrain LIV.

The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a detector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise model. As a result, accurate reconstruction of a spatially or temporally distributed phenomenon (f*) from Poisson data (y) cannot be effectively accomplished by minimizing a conventional penalized least-squares objective function. The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of f* from y in an inverse problem setting, where (a) the number of unknowns may potentially be larger than the number of observations and (b) f* admits a sparse approximation. The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a penalized negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using separable quadratic approximations to the objective function at each iteration and penalization terms related to l1 norms of coefficient vectors, total variation seminorms, and partition-based multiscale estimation methods.

Algorithms based on normalizing flows are emerging as promising machine learning approaches to sampling complicated probability distributions in a way that can be made asymptotically exact. In the context of lattice field theory, proof-of-principle studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach for scalar theories, gauge theories, and statistical systems. This work develops approaches that enable flow-based sampling of theories with dynamical fermions, which is necessary for the technique to be applied to lattice field theory studies of the Standard Model of particle physics and many condensed matter systems. As a practical demonstration, these methods are applied to the sampling of field configurations for a two-dimensional theory of massless staggered fermions coupled to a scalar field via a Yukawa interaction.

We propose a training recipe that treats charged-particle trajectory parameter regression on high-energy physics detector data as a sequence-modeling task. Kalman filters and linearized least-squares fits have been the classical standard approach for this task: they are optimal estimators for sparsely sampled linear-Gaussian data and are commonly used for trajectory parameter regression (fitting). The classical fitting techniques implemented for this domain reach a final precision of one part in 10^5 through detailed modeling of detector geometry, material, detection effects and precise numerical integration of the equations of motion through the detector's inhomogeneous magnetic field. With this study, we demonstrate that using a bidirectional gated linear recurrent encoder, one is able to reproduce the full precision of classical track fitting techniques. Using a custom kernel, we also achieve significantly higher throughput during GPU inference, compared to classical fitting software running on similarly priced multi-core CPU servers representing typically employed hardware. Such a speedup would lead to considerable cost savings for the pattern recognition at the Large Hadron Collider. To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end learned track fit to reach the full precision and, at the same time, offer the opportunity to reduce the computing costs.

The standard Monte Carlo estimator I_N^{MC} of int fdω relies on independent samples from ω and has variance of order 1/N. Replacing the samples with a determinantal point process (DPP), a repulsive distribution, makes the estimator consistent, with variance rates that depend on how the DPP is adapted to f and ω. We examine two existing DPP-based estimators: one by Bardenet & Hardy (2020) with a rate of O(N^{-(1+1/d)}) for smooth f, but relying on a fixed DPP. The other, by Ermakov & Zolotukhin (1960), is unbiased with rate of order 1/N, like Monte Carlo, but its DPP is tailored to f. We revisit these estimators, generalize them to continuous settings, and provide sampling algorithms.

An observable in an Effective Field Theory (EFT) is an expansion in a set of small parameters, no different than any other perturbation series. Truncating such a series expansion leaves the leading dropped term as the dominant source of error, and that term itself contains a calculable portion. We explore the partial calculation of this next-order error, available at dim-6^2 in SMEFT with no additional tools needed to simulate it, and explore how to efficiently use that partial calculation to model the next-order uncertainty in full using a minimal number of nuisance parameters. This estimate of the uncertainty of the EFT signal rate naturally imposes EFT validity by ensuring that bounds are driven by kinematic regions where truncation uncertainties are parametrically smaller than the signal. We incorporate the calculable dim-6^2 piece into the signal and cover the remaining higher-dimension uncertainty with a small set of nuisance parameters derived from a scan over Wilson-coefficient values. Our algorithm to determine the relevant nuisance parameters and distributions is automation-friendly and applies to arbitrary truncation choices. We then provide multiple examples of its implementation in high-energy collider processes focused on SMEFT truncated at O(Λ^{-2}), where the dim-6^2 piece is used to estimate the full mathcal O(Λ^{-4}) dependence. In the examples considered here the reduction of nuisance parameters is appreciable, generically reducing the nuisance parameter count by an order of magnitude compared to naïve estimates.

Turbulent magnetic fields are to some extent a universal feature in astrophysical phenomena. Charged particles that encounter these turbulence get on average accelerated according to the so-called second-order Fermi process. However, in most astrophysical environments there are additional competing processes, such as different kinds of first-order energy changes and particle escape, that effect the resulting momentum distribution of the particles. In this work we provide to our knowledge the first semi-analytical solution of the isotropic steady-state momentum diffusion equation including continuous and catastrophic momentum changes that can be applied to any arbitrary astrophysical system of interest. Here, we adopt that the assigned magnetic turbulence is constrained on a finite range and the particle flux vanishes beyond these boundaries. Consequently, we show that the so-called pile-up bump -- that has for some special cases long been established -- is a universal feature of stochastic acceleration that emerges around the momentum chi_{rm eq} where acceleration and continuous loss are in equilibrium if the particle's residence time in the system is sufficient at chi_{rm eq}. In general, the impact of continuous and catastrophic momentum changes plays a crucial role in the shape of the steady-state momentum distribution of the accelerated particles, where simplified unbroken power-law approximations are often not adequate.

Modern-day time-domain photometric surveys collect a lot of observations of various astronomical objects and the coming era of large-scale surveys will provide even more information on their properties. Spectroscopic follow-ups are especially crucial for transients such as supernovae and most of these objects have not been subject to such studies. }{Flux time series are actively used as an affordable alternative for photometric classification and characterization, for instance, peak identifications and luminosity decline estimations. However, the collected time series are multidimensional and irregularly sampled, while also containing outliers and without any well-defined systematic uncertainties. This paper presents a search for the best-performing methods to approximate the observed light curves over time and wavelength for the purpose of generating time series with regular time steps in each passband.}{We examined several light curve approximation methods based on neural networks such as multilayer perceptrons, Bayesian neural networks, and normalizing flows to approximate observations of a single light curve. Test datasets include simulated PLAsTiCC and real Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves of transients.}{The tests demonstrate that even just a few observations are enough to fit the networks and improve the quality of approximation, compared to state-of-the-art models. The methods described in this work have a low computational complexity and are significantly faster than Gaussian processes. Additionally, we analyzed the performance of the approximation techniques from the perspective of further peak identification and transients classification. The study results have been released in an open and user-friendly Fulu Python library available on GitHub for the scientific community.

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

Novel machine learning methods for tabular data generation are often developed on small datasets which do not match the scale required for scientific applications. We investigate a recent proposal to use XGBoost as the function approximator in diffusion and flow-matching models on tabular data, which proved to be extremely memory intensive, even on tiny datasets. In this work, we conduct a critical analysis of the existing implementation from an engineering perspective, and show that these limitations are not fundamental to the method; with better implementation it can be scaled to datasets 370x larger than previously used. Our efficient implementation also unlocks scaling models to much larger sizes which we show directly leads to improved performance on benchmark tasks. We also propose algorithmic improvements that can further benefit resource usage and model performance, including multi-output trees which are well-suited to generative modeling. Finally, we present results on large-scale scientific datasets derived from experimental particle physics as part of the Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge. Code is available at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/calo-forest.

Anomaly detection methods identify examples that do not follow the expected behaviour, typically in an unsupervised fashion, by assigning real-valued anomaly scores to the examples based on various heuristics. These scores need to be transformed into actual predictions by thresholding, so that the proportion of examples marked as anomalies equals the expected proportion of anomalies, called contamination factor. Unfortunately, there are no good methods for estimating the contamination factor itself. We address this need from a Bayesian perspective, introducing a method for estimating the posterior distribution of the contamination factor of a given unlabeled dataset. We leverage on outputs of several anomaly detectors as a representation that already captures the basic notion of anomalousness and estimate the contamination using a specific mixture formulation. Empirically on 22 datasets, we show that the estimated distribution is well-calibrated and that setting the threshold using the posterior mean improves the anomaly detectors' performance over several alternative methods. All code is publicly available for full reproducibility.

We introduce ensembles within score-based sampling methods to develop gradient-free approximate sampling techniques that leverage the collective dynamics of particle ensembles to compute approximate reverse diffusion drifts. We introduce the underlying methodology, emphasizing its relationship with generative diffusion models and the previously introduced F\"ollmer sampler. We demonstrate the efficacy of ensemble strategies through various examples, ranging from low- to medium-dimensionality sampling problems, including multi-modal and highly non-Gaussian probability distributions, and provide comparisons to traditional methods like NUTS. Our findings highlight the potential of ensemble strategies for modeling complex probability distributions in situations where gradients are unavailable. Finally, we showcase its application in the context of Bayesian inversion problems within the geophysical sciences.

Supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are widely used to solve imaging inverse problems, achieving state-of-the-art performance in numerous applications. However, despite their empirical success, these methods are poorly understood from a theoretical perspective and often treated as black boxes. To bridge this gap, we analyze trained neural networks through the lens of the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) estimator, incorporating functional constraints that capture two fundamental inductive biases of CNNs: translation equivariance and locality via finite receptive fields. Under the empirical training distribution, we derive an analytic, interpretable, and tractable formula for this constrained variant, termed Local-Equivariant MMSE (LE-MMSE). Through extensive numerical experiments across various inverse problems (denoising, inpainting, deconvolution), datasets (FFHQ, CIFAR-10, FashionMNIST), and architectures (U-Net, ResNet, PatchMLP), we demonstrate that our theory matches the neural networks outputs (PSNR gtrsim25dB). Furthermore, we provide insights into the differences between physics-aware and physics-agnostic estimators, the impact of high-density regions in the training (patch) distribution, and the influence of other factors (dataset size, patch size, etc).

The current version of the Fermi Large Area Telescope data (P8R2) has been publicly available since June 2015, with the caveat that the residual background of all event classes, except ULTRACLEANVETO, was not fully isotropic: it was enhanced by a factor ~2 at 1-3 GeV within ~20 deg of the Ecliptic compared to the poles. By investigating the residual background using data only, we were able to find two sources of residual background: one due to non-interacting heavy ions and one due to cosmic-ray electrons leaking through the ribbons of the Anti-Coincidence Detector, the latter source being responsible for the background anisotropy. A set of simple cuts allows us to reject these events while losing less than 1% of the SOURCE class acceptance. This new selection has been used to produce a new version of the LAT data (P8R3).

We present a continuous variable tomography scheme that reconstructs the Husimi Q-function (Wigner function) by Lagrange interpolation, using measurements of the Q-function (Wigner function) at the Padua points, the optimal sampling points for two dimensional reconstruction. Our approach drastically reduces the number of measurements required compared to using equidistant points on a regular grid, although reanalysis of such experiments is possible. The reconstruction algorithm produces a reconstructed function with exponentially decreasing error and quasi-linear runtime in the number of Padua points. Moreover, using the interpolating polynomial of the Q-function, we present a technique to directly estimate the density matrix elements of the continuous variable state, with only linear propagation of input measurement error. Furthermore, we derive a state-independent analytical bound on this error, such that our estimate of the density matrix is accompanied by a measure of its uncertainty.

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Neutron/gamma discrimination has been intensively researched in recent years, due to its unique scientific value and widespread applications. With the advancement of detection materials and algorithms, nowadays we can achieve fairly good discrimination. However, further improvements rely on better utilization of detector raw signals, especially energy-independent pulse characteristics. We begin by discussing why figure-of-merit (FoM) is not a comprehensive criterion for high-precision neutron/gamma discriminators, and proposing a new evaluation method based on adversarial sampling. Inspired by frequency-domain analysis in existing literature, parametric linear/nonlinear models with minimum complexity are created, upon the discrete spectrum, with tunable parameters just as neural networks. We train the models on an open-source neutron/gamma dataset (CLYC crystals with silicon photomultipliers) preprocessed by charge normalization to discover and exploit energy-independent features. The performance is evaluated on different sampling rates and noise levels, in comparison with the frequency classification index and conventional methods. The frequency-domain parametric models show higher accuracy and better adaptability to variations of data integrity than other discriminators. The proposed method is also promising for online inference on economical hardware and portable devices.

X-ray observing facilities, such as the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the eROSITA, have detected millions of astronomical sources associated with high-energy phenomena. The arrival of photons as a function of time follows a Poisson process and can vary by orders-of-magnitude, presenting obstacles for common tasks such as source classification, physical property derivation, and anomaly detection. Previous work has either failed to directly capture the Poisson nature of the data or only focuses on Poisson rate function reconstruction. In this work, we present Poisson Process AutoDecoder (PPAD). PPAD is a neural field decoder that maps fixed-length latent features to continuous Poisson rate functions across energy band and time via unsupervised learning. PPAD reconstructs the rate function and yields a representation at the same time. We demonstrate the efficacy of PPAD via reconstruction, regression, classification and anomaly detection experiments using the Chandra Source Catalog.

We study the problem of estimating the time delay between two signals representing delayed, irregularly sampled and noisy versions of the same underlying pattern. We propose and demonstrate an evolutionary algorithm for the (hyper)parameter estimation of a kernel-based technique in the context of an astronomical problem, namely estimating the time delay between two gravitationally lensed signals from a distant quasar. Mixed types (integer and real) are used to represent variables within the evolutionary algorithm. We test the algorithm on several artificial data sets, and also on real astronomical observations of quasar Q0957+561. By carrying out a statistical analysis of the results we present a detailed comparison of our method with the most popular methods for time delay estimation in astrophysics. Our method yields more accurate and more stable time delay estimates: for Q0957+561, we obtain 419.6 days for the time delay between images A and B. Our methodology can be readily applied to current state-of-the-art optical monitoring data in astronomy, but can also be applied in other disciplines involving similar time series data.

We propose a modified moment matching algorithm to avoid catastrophic failures for sources with a low signal to noise ratio (SNR). The proposed modifications include a method to eliminate non-physical negative pixel values and a forced single iteration with an initial guess derived from co-add measurements when iterative methods are unstable. We correct for all biases in measurements introduced by the method. We find that the proposed modifications allow the algorithm to avoid catastrophic failures in nearly 100\% of the cases, especially at low signal to noise ratio. Additionally, with a reasonable guess from co-add measurements, the algorithm measures the flux, centroid, size, shape and ellipticity with bias statistically consistent with zero. We show the proposed method allows us to measure sources seven times fainter than traditional methods when applied to images obtained from WIYN-ODI. We also present a scheme to find uncertainties in measurements when using the new method to measure astronomical sources.

Foundation Models are neural networks that are capable of simultaneously solving many problems. Large Language Foundation Models like ChatGPT have revolutionized many aspects of daily life, but their impact for science is not yet clear. In this paper, we use a new Foundation Model for hadronic jets to solve three key challenges in collider physics. In particular, we show how experiments can (1) save significant computing power when developing reconstruction algorithms, (2) perform a complete uncertainty quantification for high-dimensional measurements, and (3) search for new physics with model agnostic methods using low-level inputs. In each case, there are significant computational or methodological challenges with current methods that limit the science potential of deep learning algorithms. By solving each problem, we take jet Foundation Models beyond proof-of-principle studies and into the toolkit of practitioners.

Simulating large, strongly interacting fermionic systems remains a major challenge for existing numerical methods. In this work, we present, for the first time, the application of neural quantum states - specifically, hidden fermion determinant states (HFDS) - to simulate the strongly interacting limit of the Fermi-Hubbard model, namely the t-J model, across the entire doping regime. We demonstrate that HFDS achieve energies competitive with matrix product states (MPS) on lattices as large as 8 times 8 sites while using several orders of magnitude fewer parameters, suggesting the potential for efficient application to even larger system sizes. This remarkable efficiency enables us to probe low-energy physics across the full doping range, providing new insights into the competition between kinetic and magnetic interactions and the nature of emergent quasiparticles. Starting from the low-doping regime, where magnetic polarons dominate the low energy physics, we track their evolution with increasing doping through analyses of spin and polaron correlation functions. Our findings demonstrate the potential of determinant-based neural quantum states with inherent fermionic sign structure, opening the way for simulating large-scale fermionic systems at any particle filling.

Simulating showers of particles in highly-granular calorimeters is a key frontier in the application of machine learning to particle physics. Achieving high accuracy and speed with generative machine learning models can enable them to augment traditional simulations and alleviate a major computing constraint. Recent developments have shown how diffusion based generative shower simulation approaches that do not rely on a fixed structure, but instead generate geometry-independent point clouds, are very efficient. We present a transformer-based extension to previous architectures which were developed for simulating electromagnetic showers in the highly granular electromagnetic calorimeter of the International Large Detector, ILD. The attention mechanism now allows us to generate complex hadronic showers with more pronounced substructure across both the electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeters. This is the first time that machine learning methods are used to holistically generate showers across the electromagnetic and hadronic calorimeter in highly granular imaging calorimeter systems.

The mass composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is an open problem in astroparticle physics. It is usually inferred from the depth of the shower maximum (Xmax) of cosmic-ray showers, which is only ambiguously determined by modern hadronic interaction models. We examine a data-driven scenario, in which we consider the expectation value of Xmax as a free parameter. We test the novel hypothesis whether the cosmic-ray data from the Pierre Auger Observatory can be interpreted in a consistent picture, under the assumption that the mass composition of cosmic rays at the highest energies is dominated by high metallicity, resulting in pure iron nuclei at energies above ~40 EeV. We investigate the implications on astrophysical observations and hadronic interactions, and we discuss the global consistency of the data assuming this heavy-metal scenario. We conclude that the data from the Pierre Auger Observatory can be interpreted consistently if the expectation values for Xmax from modern hadronic interaction models are shifted to larger values.

Precision beta decay experiments serve as powerful probes of physics beyond the Standard Model, enabling stringent tests of fundamental symmetries of nature. In particular, these experiments primarily focus on precise determinations of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element Vud and the search for exotic weak currents, both of which depend critically on theoretical calculations of radiative, recoil-order, and isospin-breaking corrections with quantified uncertainties. In recent years, ab initio nuclear many-body methods--grounded in realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions and systematically improvable approximations--have advanced considerably in their ability to compute these higher-order corrections for various nuclei. This review provides a comprehensive overview of state-of-the-art ab initio calculations of beta-decay corrections, encompassing both radiative corrections and recoil-order terms, and examines their significance for precision tests of the Standard Model. We discuss the theoretical formalisms employed, including the integration of effective field theory frameworks with many-body approaches. Particular attention is given to recent results for superallowed Fermi decays (e.g., 10C -> 10B and 14O -> 14C) and allowed Gamow-Teller transitions (e.g., 6He -> 6Li, 8Li -> 8Be, 8B -> 8Be), where ab initio calculations have achieved unprecedented precision. We also highlight emerging calculations for unique forbidden decays, which offer complementary sensitivity to BSM physics. Finally, we outline future directions aimed at extending the reach of ab initio calculations to heavier nuclei and additional decay modes, thereby strengthening the synergy between theory and experiment in the ongoing search for new physics.

The polarization of an X-ray beam that produces electrons with velocity components perpendicular to the beam generates an azimuthal distribution of the ejected electrons. We present methods for simulating and for analyzing the angular dependence of electron detections which enable us to derive simple analytical expressions for useful statistical properties of observable data. The derivations are verified by simulations. While we confirm the results of previous work on this topic, we provide an extension needed for analytical treatment of the full range of possible polarization amplitudes.

Diffusion models may be formulated as a time-indexed sequence of energy-based models, where the score corresponds to the negative gradient of an energy function. As opposed to learning the score directly, an energy parameterization is attractive as the energy itself can be used to control generation via Monte Carlo samplers. Architectural constraints and training instability in energy parameterized models have so far yielded inferior performance compared to directly approximating the score or denoiser. We address these deficiencies by introducing a novel training regime for the energy function through distillation of pre-trained diffusion models, resembling a Helmholtz decomposition of the score vector field. We further showcase the synergies between energy and score by casting the diffusion sampling procedure as a Feynman Kac model where sampling is controlled using potentials from the learnt energy functions. The Feynman Kac model formalism enables composition and low temperature sampling through sequential Monte Carlo.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Diffusion generative models have excelled at diverse image generation and reconstruction tasks across fields. A less explored avenue is their application to discriminative tasks involving regression or classification problems. The cornerstone of modern cosmology is the ability to generate predictions for observed astrophysical fields from theory and constrain physical models from observations using these predictions. This work uses a single diffusion generative model to address these interlinked objectives -- as a surrogate model or emulator for cold dark matter density fields conditional on input cosmological parameters, and as a parameter inference model that solves the inverse problem of constraining the cosmological parameters of an input field. The model is able to emulate fields with summary statistics consistent with those of the simulated target distribution. We then leverage the approximate likelihood of the diffusion generative model to derive tight constraints on cosmology by using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior on cosmological parameters for a given test image. Finally, we demonstrate that this parameter inference approach is more robust to small perturbations of noise to the field than baseline parameter inference networks.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Electronic band structure (BS) and crystal structure are the two complementary identifiers of solid state materials. While convenient instruments and reconstruction algorithms have made large, empirical, crystal structure databases possible, extracting quasiparticle dispersion (closely related to BS) from photoemission band mapping data is currently limited by the available computational methods. To cope with the growing size and scale of photoemission data, we develop a pipeline including probabilistic machine learning and the associated data processing, optimization and evaluation methods for band structure reconstruction, leveraging theoretical calculations. The pipeline reconstructs all 14 valence bands of a semiconductor and shows excellent performance on benchmarks and other materials datasets. The reconstruction uncovers previously inaccessible momentum-space structural information on both global and local scales, while realizing a path towards integration with materials science databases. Our approach illustrates the potential of combining machine learning and domain knowledge for scalable feature extraction in multidimensional data.

We develop a deep variational free energy framework to compute the equation of state of hydrogen in the warm dense matter region. This method parameterizes the variational density matrix of hydrogen nuclei and electrons at finite temperature using three deep generative models: a normalizing flow model that represents the Boltzmann distribution of the classical nuclei, an autoregressive transformer that models the distribution of electrons in excited states, and a permutational equivariant flow model that constructs backflow coordinates for electrons in Hartree-Fock orbitals. By jointly optimizing the three neural networks to minimize the variational free energy, we obtain the equation of state and related thermodynamic properties of dense hydrogen. We compare our results with other theoretical and experimental results on the deuterium Hugoniot curve, aiming to resolve existing discrepancies. The calculated results provide a valuable benchmark for deuterium in the warm dense matter region.

We revisit quantum phase estimation algorithms for the purpose of obtaining the energy levels of many-body Hamiltonians and pay particular attention to the statistical analysis of their outputs. We introduce the mean phase direction of the parent distribution associated with eigenstate inputs as a new post-processing tool. By connecting it with the unknown phase, we find that if used as its direct estimator, it exceeds the accuracy of the standard majority rule using one less bit of resolution, making evident that it can also be inverted to provide unbiased estimation. Moreover, we show how to directly use this quantity to accurately find the energy levels when the initialized state is an eigenstate of the simulated propagator during the whole time evolution, which allows for shallower algorithms. We then use IBM Q hardware to carry out the digital quantum simulation of three toy models: a two-level system, a two-spin Ising model and a two-site Hubbard model at half-filling. Methodologies are provided to implement Trotterization and reduce the variability of results in noisy intermediate scale quantum computers.

The event selection developed for the Fermi Large Area Telescope before launch has been periodically updated to reflect the constantly improving knowledge of the detector and the environment in which it operates. Pass 7, released to the public in August 2011, represents the most recent major iteration of this incremental process. In parallel, the LAT team has undertaken a coherent long-term effort aimed at a radical revision of the entire event-level analysis, based on the experience gained in the prime phase of the mission. This includes virtually every aspect of the data reduction process, from the simulation of the detector to the event reconstruction and the background rejection. The potential improvements include (but are not limited to) a significant reduction in background contamination coupled with an increased effective area, a better point-spread function, a better understanding of the systematic uncertainties and an extension of the energy reach for the photon analysis below 100 MeV and above a few hundred GeV. We present an overview of the work that has been done or is ongoing and the prospects for the near future.

Hoffmann et al. (2022) propose three methods for estimating a compute-optimal scaling law. We attempt to replicate their third estimation procedure, which involves fitting a parametric loss function to a reconstruction of data from their plots. We find that the reported estimates are inconsistent with their first two estimation methods, fail at fitting the extracted data, and report implausibly narrow confidence intervals--intervals this narrow would require over 600,000 experiments, while they likely only ran fewer than 500. In contrast, our rederivation of the scaling law using the third approach yields results that are compatible with the findings from the first two estimation procedures described by Hoffmann et al.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

Naturally occurring background radiation is a source of correlated decoherence events in superconducting qubits that will challenge error-correction schemes. To characterize the radiation environment in an unshielded laboratory, we performed broadband, spectroscopic measurements of background events in silicon substrates located inside a millikelvin refrigerator, an environment representative of superconducting qubit systems. We measured the background spectra in silicon substrates of two thicknesses, 0.5 mm and 1.5 mm, and obtained the average event rate and the integrated power deposition. In a 25 mm^2 area and the thinner substrate, these values are 0.023 events per second and 4.9 keV/s, counting events that deposit at least 40 keV. We find the background spectrum to be nearly featureless. Its intensity decreases by a factor of 40,000 between 100 keV and 3 MeV for silicon substrates 0.5 mm thick. We find the cryogenic measurements to be in good agreement with predictions based on measurements of the terrestrial gamma-ray flux, published models of cosmic-ray fluxes, a crude model of the cryostat, and radiation-transport simulations. No free parameters are required to predict the background spectra in the silicon substrates. The good agreement between measurements and predictions allow assessment of the relative contributions of terrestrial and cosmic background sources and their dependence on substrate thickness. Our spectroscopic measurements are performed with superconducting microresonators that transduce deposited energy to a readily detectable electrical signal. We find that gamma-ray emissions from radioisotopes are responsible for the majority of events depositing E<1.5 MeV, while nucleons among the cosmic-ray secondary particles cause most events that deposit more energy. These results suggest several paths to reducing the impact of background radiation on quantum circuits.

Weak perturbations of equal size can produce terminal Wasserstein errors of different orders. For Gaussian-smoothed infinitely divisible laws, we differentiate distribution functions with respect to variance-weighted Lévy characteristics, including distributional directions generated by moving atoms. We obtain first- and second-order expansions uniform over Lipschitz tests. Gaussian analyticity identifies the signed second coefficient of the Wasserstein-1 distance when the first response is nonzero. When it vanishes, a finite second displacement moment yields a quadratic response, strictly positive for nonzero displacement dispersion. For local balanced remeshing, the error is comparable to the grid-alignment variance, giving sharp quadratic grid rates for compactly supported densities and nonaligned atomic sequences. We derive metric speed and length along admissible non-atomic curves and a response-based linear program with a certified oracle gap and consistent quadrature. We also establish the sharp vanishing-smoothing transition and a multivariate second-order expansion. The Supplement treats state-dependent responses and further stability estimates.

We introduce a novel method for solving density-based topology optimization problems: Sigmoidal Mirror descent with a Projected Latent variable (SiMPL). The SiMPL method (pronounced as ``the simple method'') optimizes a design using only first-order derivative information of the objective function. The bound constraints on the density field are enforced with the help of the (negative) Fermi--Dirac entropy, which is also used to define a non-symmetric distance function called a Bregman divergence on the set of admissible designs. This Bregman divergence leads to a simple update rule that is further simplified with the help of a so-called latent variable. Because the SiMPL method involves discretizing the latent variable, it produces a sequence of pointwise-feasible iterates, even when high-order finite elements are used in the discretization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the method outperforms other popular first-order optimization algorithms. To outline the general applicability of the technique, we include examples with (self-load) compliance minimization and compliant mechanism optimization problems.

We discuss methods for modeling eclipsing binary stars using the "physical", "simplified" and "phenomenological" models. There are few realizations of the "physical" Wilson-Devinney (1971) code and its improvements, e.g. Binary Maker, Phoebe. A parameter search using the Monte-Carlo method was realized by Zola et al. (2010), which is efficient in expense of too many evaluations of the test function. We compare existing algorithms of minimization of multi-parametric functions and propose to use a "combined" algorithm, depending on if the Hessian matrix is positively determined. To study methods, a simply fast-computed function resembling the "complete" test function for the physical model. Also we adopt a simplified model of an eclipsing binary at a circular orbit assuming spherical components with an uniform brightness distribution. This model resembles more advanced models in a sense of correlated parameter estimates due to a similar topology of the test function. Such a model may be applied to detached Algol-type systems, where the tidal distortion of components is negligible.

A fully differential calculation in perturbative quantum chromodynamics is presented for the production of massive photon pairs at hadron colliders. All next-to-leading order perturbative contributions from quark-antiquark, gluon-(anti)quark, and gluon-gluon subprocesses are included, as well as all-orders resummation of initial-state gluon radiation valid at next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. The region of phase space is specified in which the calculation is most reliable. Good agreement is demonstrated with data from the Fermilab Tevatron, and predictions are made for more detailed tests with CDF and DO data. Predictions are shown for distributions of diphoton pairs produced at the energy of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Distributions of the diphoton pairs from the decay of a Higgs boson are contrasted with those produced from QCD processes at the LHC, showing that enhanced sensitivity to the signal can be obtained with judicious selection of events.

We explore the non-equilibrium dynamics of a one-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard system as a sensitive testbed for the capabilities of the time-dependent two-particle reduced density matrix (TD2RDM) theory to accurately describe time-dependent correlated systems. We follow the time evolution of the out-of-equilibrium finite-size Fermi-Hubbard model initialized by a quench over extended periods of time. By comparison with exact calculations for small systems and with matrix product state (MPS) calculations for larger systems but limited to short times, we demonstrate that the TD2RDM theory can accurately account for the non-equilibrium dynamics in the regime from weak to moderately strong inter-particle correlations. We find that the quality of the approximate reconstruction of the three-particle cumulant (or correlation) required for the closure of the equations of motion for the reduced density matrix is key to the accuracy of the numerical TD2RDM results. We identify the size of the dynamically induced three-particle correlations and the amplitude of cross correlations between the two- and three-particle cumulants as critical parameters that control the accuracy of the TD2RDM theory when current state-of-the art reconstruction functionals are employed.

We introduce a Monte Carlo approach for estimating isolated polynomial zeros through their contour integral representations. For a simple zero enclosed by an isolating contour, we show that the zero can be expressed exactly as the expectation of a complex-valued random variable obtained by uniformly sampling the contour. This yields an unbiased estimator without perturbing the polynomial coefficients. We establish its variance and derive finite sample probabilistic error bounds based on concentration inequalities, with the bounds explicitly reflecting the geometry of the contour and its separation from the zeros. The framework also provides a stochastic formulation of contour based root counting and root isolation. Numerical results illustrate the estimator's behavior under varying polynomial degrees, and we further provide comparisons to existing methods.

This work studies the estimation of many statistical quantiles under differential privacy. More precisely, given a distribution and access to i.i.d. samples from it, we study the estimation of the inverse of its cumulative distribution function (the quantile function) at specific points. For instance, this task is of key importance in private data generation. We present two different approaches. The first one consists in privately estimating the empirical quantiles of the samples and using this result as an estimator of the quantiles of the distribution. In particular, we study the statistical properties of the recently published algorithm introduced by Kaplan et al. 2022 that privately estimates the quantiles recursively. The second approach is to use techniques of density estimation in order to uniformly estimate the quantile function on an interval. In particular, we show that there is a tradeoff between the two methods. When we want to estimate many quantiles, it is better to estimate the density rather than estimating the quantile function at specific points.

A mixed Gaussian fractional process {Y(t)}_{t Bbb R} = {PX(t)}_{t Bbb R} is a multivariate stochastic process obtained by pre-multiplying a vector of independent, Gaussian fractional process entries X by a nonsingular matrix P. It is interpreted that Y is observable, while X is a hidden process occurring in an (unknown) system of coordinates P. Mixed processes naturally arise as approximations to solutions of physically relevant classes of multivariate fractional SDEs under aggregation. We propose a semiparametric two-step wavelet-based method for estimating both the demixing matrix P^{-1} and the memory parameters of X. The asymptotic normality of the estimators is established both in continuous and discrete time. Monte Carlo experiments show that the finite sample estimation performance is comparable to that of parametric methods, while being very computationally efficient. As applications, we model a bivariate time series of annual tree ring width measurements, and establish the asymptotic normality of the eigenstructure of sample wavelet matrices.

In 2013, the IceCube collaboration announced the detection of a diffuse high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux. The origin of this flux is still largely unknown. The most significant individual source is the close-by Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068 at 4.2-sigma level with a soft spectral index. To identify sources based on their counterpart, IceCube releases realtime alerts corresponding to neutrinos with a high probability of astrophysical origin. We report here the spatial coincidence of two neutrino alerts, IC220424A and IC230416A, with the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469 at a distance of 70 Mpc. We evaluate, a-posteriori, the chance probability of such a coincidence and discuss this source as a potential neutrino emitter based on its multi-wavelength properties and in comparison to NGC 1068 by performing a Goodness-of-Fit test. The test statistic is derived from a likelihood ratio that includes the neutrino angular uncertainty and the source distance. We apply this test first to a catalog of AGN sources and second to a catalog of Seyfert galaxies only. Our a-posteriori evaluation excludes the possibility of an accidental spatial coincidence of both neutrinos with the Seyfert galaxy NGC 7469 at 3.2-sigma level, leaving open the possibility that either one or both neutrinos originated from the source. To be compatible with non-detections of TeV neutrinos, the source would need to have a hard spectral index.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

An implicit Euler finite-volume scheme for a nonlocal cross-diffusion system on the multidimensional torus is analyzed. The equations describe the dynamics of population species with repulsive or attractive interactions. The numerical scheme is based on a generalized Scharfetter-Gummel discretization of the nonlocal flux term. For merely integrable kernel functions, the scheme preserves the positivity, total mass, and entropy structure. The existence of a discrete solution and its convergence to a solution to the continuous problem, as the mesh size tends to zero, are shown. A key difficulty is the degeneracy of the generalized Bernoulli function in the Scharfetter-Gummel approximation. This issue is overcome by proving a uniform estimate for the discrete Fisher information, which requires both the Boltzmann and Rao entropy inequalities. Numerical simulations illustrate the features of the scheme in one and two space dimensions.

This paper revisits the problem of computing empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) efficiently on large, multivariate datasets. Computing an ECDF at one evaluation point requires O(N) operations on a dataset composed of N data points. Therefore, a direct evaluation of ECDFs at N evaluation points requires a quadratic O(N^2) operations, which is prohibitive for large-scale problems. Two fast and exact methods are proposed and compared. The first one is based on fast summation in lexicographical order, with a O(N{log}N) complexity and requires the evaluation points to lie on a regular grid. The second one is based on the divide-and-conquer principle, with a O(Nlog(N)^{(d-1){vee}1}) complexity and requires the evaluation points to coincide with the input points. The two fast algorithms are described and detailed in the general d-dimensional case, and numerical experiments validate their speed and accuracy. Secondly, the paper establishes a direct connection between cumulative distribution functions and kernel density estimation (KDE) for a large class of kernels. This connection paves the way for fast exact algorithms for multivariate kernel density estimation and kernel regression. Numerical tests with the Laplacian kernel validate the speed and accuracy of the proposed algorithms. A broad range of large-scale multivariate density estimation, cumulative distribution estimation, survival function estimation and regression problems can benefit from the proposed numerical methods.

Accurate and efficient detector simulation is essential for modern collider experiments. To reduce the high computational cost, various fast machine learning surrogate models have been proposed. Traditional surrogate models for calorimeter shower modeling train separate networks for each particle species, limiting scalability and reuse. We introduce AllShowers, a unified generative model that simulates calorimeter showers across multiple particle types using a single generative model. AllShowers is a continuous normalizing flow model with a Transformer architecture, enabling it to generate complex spatial and energy correlations in variable-length point cloud representations of showers. Trained on a diverse dataset of simulated showers in the highly granular ILD detector, the model demonstrates the ability to generate realistic showers for electrons, photons, and charged and neutral hadrons across a wide range of incident energies and angles without retraining. In addition to unifying shower generation for multiple particle types, AllShowers surpasses the fidelity of previous single-particle-type models for hadronic showers. Key innovations include the use of a layer embedding, allowing the model to learn all relevant calorimeter layer properties; a custom attention masking scheme to reduce computational demands and introduce a helpful inductive bias; and a shower- and layer-wise optimal transport mapping to improve training convergence and sample quality. AllShowers marks a significant step towards a universal model for calorimeter shower simulations in collider experiments.

Quantum computers can be used to address molecular structure, materials science and condensed matter physics problems, which currently stretch the limits of existing high-performance computing resources. Finding exact numerical solutions to these interacting fermion problems has exponential cost, while Monte Carlo methods are plagued by the fermionic sign problem. These limitations of classical computational methods have made even few-atom molecular structures problems of practical interest for medium-sized quantum computers. Yet, thus far experimental implementations have been restricted to molecules involving only Period I elements. Here, we demonstrate the experimental optimization of up to six-qubit Hamiltonian problems with over a hundred Pauli terms, determining the ground state energy for molecules of increasing size, up to BeH2. This is enabled by a hardware-efficient variational quantum eigensolver with trial states specifically tailored to the available interactions in our quantum processor, combined with a compact encoding of fermionic Hamiltonians and a robust stochastic optimization routine. We further demonstrate the flexibility of our approach by applying the technique to a problem of quantum magnetism. Across all studied problems, we find agreement between experiment and numerical simulations with a noisy model of the device. These results help elucidate the requirements for scaling the method to larger systems, and aim at bridging the gap between problems at the forefront of high-performance computing and their implementation on quantum hardware.

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

Despite the remarkable progress in generative modelling, current diffusion models lack a quantitative approach to assess image quality. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate the pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty during the sampling phase of diffusion models and utilise the uncertainty to improve the sample generation quality. The uncertainty is computed as the variance of the denoising scores with a perturbation scheme that is specifically designed for diffusion models. We then show that the aleatoric uncertainty estimates are related to the second-order derivative of the diffusion noise distribution. We evaluate our uncertainty estimation algorithm and the uncertainty-guided sampling on the ImageNet and CIFAR-10 datasets. In our comparisons with the related work, we demonstrate promising results in filtering out low quality samples. Furthermore, we show that our guided approach leads to better sample generation in terms of FID scores.

Rapid advancement of machine learning solutions has often coincided with the production of a test public data set. Such datasets reduce the largest barrier to entry for tackling a problem -- procuring data -- while also providing a benchmark to compare different solutions. Furthermore, large datasets have been used to train high-performing feature finders which are then used in new approaches to problems beyond that initially defined. In order to encourage the rapid development in the analysis of data collected using liquid argon time projection chambers, a class of particle detectors used in high energy physics experiments, we have produced the PILArNet, first 2D and 3D open dataset to be used for a couple of key analysis tasks. The initial dataset presented in this paper contains 300,000 samples simulated and recorded in three different volume sizes. The dataset is stored efficiently in sparse 2D and 3D matrix format with auxiliary information about simulated particles in the volume, and is made available for public research use. In this paper we describe the dataset, tasks, and the method used to procure the sample.

Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are computationally expensive, a growing number of machine learning (ML) methods such as neural posterior estimation (NPE) have been proposed. We seek to make ML-based atmospheric retrieval (1) more reliable and accurate with verified results, and (2) more flexible with respect to the underlying neural networks and the choice of the assumed noise models. First, we adopt flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE) as a new ML approach to atmospheric retrieval. FMPE maintains many advantages of NPE, but provides greater architectural flexibility and scalability. Second, we use importance sampling (IS) to verify and correct ML results, and to compute an estimate of the Bayesian evidence. Third, we condition our ML models on the assumed noise level of a spectrum (i.e., error bars), thus making them adaptable to different noise models. Both our noise level-conditional FMPE and NPE models perform on par with nested sampling across a range of noise levels when tested on simulated data. FMPE trains about 3 times faster than NPE and yields higher IS efficiencies. IS successfully corrects inaccurate ML results, identifies model failures via low efficiencies, and provides accurate estimates of the Bayesian evidence. FMPE is a powerful alternative to NPE for fast, amortized, and parallelizable atmospheric retrieval. IS can verify results, thus helping to build confidence in ML-based approaches, while also facilitating model comparison via the evidence ratio. Noise level conditioning allows design studies for future instruments to be scaled up, for example, in terms of the range of signal-to-noise ratios.

We present a neural flow wavefunction, Gauge-Fermion FlowNet, and use it to simulate 2+1D lattice compact quantum electrodynamics with finite density dynamical fermions. The gauge field is represented by a neural network which parameterizes a discretized flow-based transformation of the amplitude while the fermionic sign structure is represented by a neural net backflow. This approach directly represents the U(1) degree of freedom without any truncation, obeys Guass's law by construction, samples autoregressively avoiding any equilibration time, and variationally simulates Gauge-Fermion systems with sign problems accurately. In this model, we investigate confinement and string breaking phenomena in different fermion density and hopping regimes. We study the phase transition from the charge crystal phase to the vacuum phase at zero density, and observe the phase seperation and the net charge penetration blocking effect under magnetic interaction at finite density. In addition, we investigate a magnetic phase transition due to the competition effect between the kinetic energy of fermions and the magnetic energy of the gauge field. With our method, we further note potential differences on the order of the phase transitions between a continuous U(1) system and one with finite truncation. Our state-of-the-art neural network approach opens up new possibilities to study different gauge theories coupled to dynamical matter in higher dimensions.

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.

Accurate knowledge of the properties of hydrogen at high compression is crucial for astrophysics (e.g. planetary and stellar interiors, brown dwarfs, atmosphere of compact stars) and laboratory experiments, including inertial confinement fusion. There exists experimental data for the equation of state, conductivity, and Thomson scattering spectra. However, the analysis of the measurements at extreme pressures and temperatures typically involves additional model assumptions, which makes it difficult to assess the accuracy of the experimental data. rigorously. On the other hand, theory and modeling have produced extensive collections of data. They originate from a very large variety of models and simulations including path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations, density functional theory (DFT), chemical models, machine-learned models, and combinations thereof. At the same time, each of these methods has fundamental limitations (fermion sign problem in PIMC, approximate exchange-correlation functionals of DFT, inconsistent interaction energy contributions in chemical models, etc.), so for some parameter ranges accurate predictions are difficult. Recently, a number of breakthroughs in first principle PIMC and DFT simulations were achieved which are discussed in this review. Here we use these results to benchmark different simulation methods. We present an update of the hydrogen phase diagram at high pressures, the expected phase transitions, and thermodynamic properties including the equation of state and momentum distribution. Furthermore, we discuss available dynamic results for warm dense hydrogen, including the conductivity, dynamic structure factor, plasmon dispersion, imaginary-time structure, and density response functions. We conclude by outlining strategies to combine different simulations to achieve accurate theoretical predictions.

We investigate statistical properties of a likelihood approach to nonparametric estimation of a singular distribution using deep generative models. More specifically, a deep generative model is used to model high-dimensional data that are assumed to concentrate around some low-dimensional structure. Estimating the distribution supported on this low-dimensional structure, such as a low-dimensional manifold, is challenging due to its singularity with respect to the Lebesgue measure in the ambient space. In the considered model, a usual likelihood approach can fail to estimate the target distribution consistently due to the singularity. We prove that a novel and effective solution exists by perturbing the data with an instance noise, which leads to consistent estimation of the underlying distribution with desirable convergence rates. We also characterize the class of distributions that can be efficiently estimated via deep generative models. This class is sufficiently general to contain various structured distributions such as product distributions, classically smooth distributions and distributions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our analysis provides some insights on how deep generative models can avoid the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric distribution estimation. We conduct a thorough simulation study and real data analysis to empirically demonstrate that the proposed data perturbation technique improves the estimation performance significantly.

Foundation models are increasingly being pursued in particle and nuclear physics, but existing approaches remain strongly tied to individual experiments through detector-specific architectures or pre-training objectives, limiting their reuse across sensing modalities. We show that a point cloud self-distillation framework yields a substantially more general sensor-level pre-training recipe. We show that the same refined architecture and objective can be independently pre-trained with minimal changes on three qualitatively different detector modalities: liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC), collider TPC, and water Cherenkov. Using 1,000 labeled images for downstream task adaptation, Panda V2 matches or exceeds specialized foundation-model baselines trained with orders of magnitude more supervision, matching state-of-the-art particle-clustering performance with 70x fewer labeled events on sPHENIX while substantially improving particle identification, and on LArTPC data matching Panda (arXiv:2512.01324) particle reconstruction with up to 1,000x fewer labels. Beyond reconstruction, simple linear probes reveal physically meaningful latent structure associated with particle causality and track curvature.

We introduce a new family of physics-inspired generative models termed PFGM++ that unifies diffusion models and Poisson Flow Generative Models (PFGM). These models realize generative trajectories for N dimensional data by embedding paths in N{+}D dimensional space while still controlling the progression with a simple scalar norm of the D additional variables. The new models reduce to PFGM when D{=}1 and to diffusion models when D{to}infty. The flexibility of choosing D allows us to trade off robustness against rigidity as increasing D results in more concentrated coupling between the data and the additional variable norms. We dispense with the biased large batch field targets used in PFGM and instead provide an unbiased perturbation-based objective similar to diffusion models. To explore different choices of D, we provide a direct alignment method for transferring well-tuned hyperparameters from diffusion models (D{to} infty) to any finite D values. Our experiments show that models with finite D can be superior to previous state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR-10/FFHQ 64{times}64 datasets, with FID scores of 1.91/2.43 when D{=}2048/128. In class-conditional setting, D{=}2048 yields current state-of-the-art FID of 1.74 on CIFAR-10. In addition, we demonstrate that models with smaller D exhibit improved robustness against modeling errors. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/pfgmpp

Scientific foundation models hold great promise for advancing nuclear and particle physics by improving analysis precision and accelerating discovery. Yet, progress in this field is often limited by the lack of openly available large scale datasets, as well as standardized evaluation tasks and metrics. Furthermore, the specialized knowledge and software typically required to process particle physics data pose significant barriers to interdisciplinary collaboration with the broader machine learning community. This work introduces a large, openly accessible dataset of 10 million simulated proton-proton collisions, designed to support self-supervised training of foundation models. To facilitate ease of use, the dataset is provided in a common NumPy format. In addition, it includes 70,000 labeled examples spanning three well defined downstream tasks: track finding, particle identification, and noise tagging, to enable systematic evaluation of the foundation model's adaptability. The simulated data are generated using the Pythia Monte Carlo event generator at a center of mass energy of sqrt(s) = 200 GeV and processed with Geant4 to include realistic detector conditions and signal emulation in the sPHENIX Time Projection Chamber at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider, located at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This dataset resource establishes a common ground for interdisciplinary research, enabling machine learning scientists and physicists alike to explore scaling behaviors, assess transferability, and accelerate progress toward foundation models in nuclear and high energy physics. The complete simulation and reconstruction chain is reproducible with the sPHENIX software stack. All data and code locations are provided under Data Accessibility.

Simulation is a major computational expense in HEP, and calorimeter simulation in particular drives the overall energy cost of our physics analyses. Future detectors will contain more finely grained calorimeters than ever, and their data analyses will demand unprecedented simulated statistics. Fast generative models redefine what is possible, producing simulations 100 times more efficiently. This article addresses Jevons' paradox in our field and considers the importance of realistic metrics in achieving "true" efficiency.

We introduce a rank-statistic approximation of f-divergences that avoids explicit density-ratio estimation by working directly with the distribution of ranks. For a resolution parameter K, we map the mismatch between two univariate distributions μ and ν to a rank histogram on { 0, ldots, K} and measure its deviation from uniformity via a discrete f-divergence, yielding a rank-statistic divergence estimator. We prove that the resulting estimator of the divergence is monotone in K, is always a lower bound of the true f-divergence, and we establish quantitative convergence rates for Ktoinfty under mild regularity of the quantile-domain density ratio. To handle high-dimensional data, we define the sliced rank-statistic f-divergence by averaging the univariate construction over random projections, and we provide convergence results for the sliced limit as well. We also derive finite-sample deviation bounds along with asymptotic normality results for the estimator. Finally, we empirically validate the approach by benchmarking against neural baselines and illustrating its use as a learning objective in generative modeling experiments.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

The application of superconducting materials is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the discovery of new superconducting materials relies on the experience of experts and a large number of "trial and error" experiments, which not only increases the cost of experiments but also prolongs the period of discovering new superconducting materials. In recent years, machine learning has been increasingly applied to materials science. Based on this, this manuscript proposes the use of XGBoost model to identify superconductors; the first application of deep forest model to predict the critical temperature of superconductors; the first application of deep forest to predict the band gap of materials; and application of a new sub-network model to predict the Fermi energy level of materials. Compared with our known similar literature, all the above algorithms reach state-of-the-art. Finally, this manuscript uses the above models to search the COD public dataset and identify 50 candidate superconducting materials with possible critical temperature greater than 90 K.

Disc winds are critical components of accreting astrophysical systems and their observations can yield a wide variety of spectral line profiles. Yet, inferring disc wind parameters remains challenging: the underlying parameter spaces are high-dimensional and degenerate, while the radiative-transfer simulations are imperfect and computationally expensive. This paper tackles bridging this gap. Here, we present 'Speculate', an open-source framework for rapidly emulating and fitting observations with synthetic accretion disc wind spectra, generated from the Monte Carlo radiative-transfer code Sirocco. Speculate includes the release of our cataclysmic variable (CV) training data, a library of 88,680 sparsely gridded Sirocco spectra spanning the ultraviolet and optical wave bands, a suite of pre-trained emulators, and its interactive Marimo user interface. Speculate compresses spectral grids using principal component analysis and then provides three approaches to interpolate the resulting latent representation: with a regular-grid interpolation, a neural network, or a Gaussian process. All three architectures enable Speculate to generate a Sirocco spectrum between 1-40,ms, thereby enabling efficient inference. The first two support rapid χ^2 optimisation. The Gaussian process utilises a Bayesian inference engine coupled with a covariance-aware, flexible likelihood function, adapted and accelerated from the Starfish framework. This function helps absorb correlated discrepancies between simulations and data. Tests show all architectures reproduce unseen Sirocco spectra with broadly comparable accuracy and can recover their physical parameters. Subsequently, we apply Speculate to 5 representative nova-like CV spectra, reproducing several observed line features while also exposing mismatches where the current model grid omits relevant physics.

We present a systematic reassessment of 5,062 high-Galactic latitude gamma-ray sources from the Fermi-LAT 4FGL-DR4 catalog using Firmamento, a web-based platform for multi-frequency source discovery and analysis. Our goal is to provide an independent evaluation of LAT gamma-ray source associations through alternative spectral and spatial methods that combine recent and legacy survey data, supplemented by human supervision of spectral energy distributions (SEDs), source morphology, flux variability, and template-based comparisons. Firmamento confirms the 4FGL-DR4 and 4LAC-DR3 counterparts or unassociated sources in 4,493 cases (88.8%), demonstrating the robustness of both approaches. Beyond this general agreement, we identify 421 new blazar counterparts among previously unassociated sources, thereby reducing the fraction of unidentified extragalactic Fermi-LAT sources from 25% to 17%. In addition, in 64 cases we find alternative blazar associations, while in 49 instances we do not confirm the 4FGL-DR4 association. For all confirmed blazar counterparts we provide homogeneous estimates of synchrotron peak frequency and peak flux using machine-learning and template-based methods; these agree with 4LAC-DR3 values in most cases, though significant discrepancies appear for a few dozen sources, often due to improved X-ray coverage. The primary outcome of this work is the 1st Firmamento LAT AGN table (1FLAT), made publicly available through the Firmamento platform (https://firmamento.nyuad.nyu.edu), where all related multi-wavelength data and images are available. The project involved extensive manual validation and benefited from the active participation of graduate and undergraduate students, highlighting the platform's value for both research and education.

The Beta kernel estimator offers a theoretically superior alternative to the Gaussian kernel for unit interval data, eliminating boundary bias without requiring reflection or transformation. However, its adoption remains limited by the lack of a reliable bandwidth selector; practitioners currently rely on iterative optimization methods that are computationally expensive and prone to instability. We derive the ``Beta Reference Rule,'' a fast, closed-form bandwidth selector based on the unweighted Asymptotic Mean Integrated Squared Error (AMISE) of a beta reference distribution. To address boundary integrability issues, we introduce a principled heuristic for U-shaped and J-shaped distributions. By employing a method-of-moments approximation, we reduce the bandwidth selection complexity from iterative optimization to O(1). Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our rule matches the accuracy of numerical optimization while delivering a speedup of over 35,000 times. Real-world validation on socioeconomic data shows that it avoids the ``vanishing boundary'' and ``shoulder'' artifacts common to Gaussian-based methods. We provide a comprehensive, open-source Python package to facilitate the immediate adoption of the Beta kernel as a drop-in replacement for standard density estimation tools.

Diffusion models suffer from slow sample generation at inference time. Therefore, developing a principled framework for fast deterministic/stochastic sampling for a broader class of diffusion models is a promising direction. We propose two complementary frameworks for accelerating sample generation in pre-trained models: Conjugate Integrators and Splitting Integrators. Conjugate integrators generalize DDIM, mapping the reverse diffusion dynamics to a more amenable space for sampling. In contrast, splitting-based integrators, commonly used in molecular dynamics, reduce the numerical simulation error by cleverly alternating between numerical updates involving the data and auxiliary variables. After extensively studying these methods empirically and theoretically, we present a hybrid method that leads to the best-reported performance for diffusion models in augmented spaces. Applied to Phase Space Langevin Diffusion [Pandey & Mandt, 2023] on CIFAR-10, our deterministic and stochastic samplers achieve FID scores of 2.11 and 2.36 in only 100 network function evaluations (NFE) as compared to 2.57 and 2.63 for the best-performing baselines, respectively. Our code and model checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

We discuss an unfortunate mistake, for a Dirac free particle, in the last Fermi lecture notes on quantum mechanics, in a course given at the University of Chicago in winter and spring of 1954. As is demonstrated, the correct result can be obtained by a simple matrix multiplication. An attempt to collect a relevant bibliography is made.

Density ratio estimation is fundamental to tasks involving f-divergences, yet existing methods often fail under significantly different distributions or inadequately overlapping supports -- the density-chasm and the support-chasm problems. Additionally, prior approaches yield divergent time scores near boundaries, leading to instability. We design D^3RE, a unified framework for robust, stable and efficient density ratio estimation. We propose the dequantified diffusion bridge interpolant (DDBI), which expands support coverage and stabilizes time scores via diffusion bridges and Gaussian dequantization. Building on DDBI, the proposed dequantified Schr{\"o}dinger bridge interpolant (DSBI) incorporates optimal transport to solve the Schr{\"o}dinger bridge problem, enhancing accuracy and efficiency. Our method offers uniform approximation and bounded time scores in theory, and outperforms baselines empirically in mutual information and density estimation tasks.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

With the success of static black-hole imaging, the next frontier is the dynamic and 3D imaging of black holes. Recovering the dynamic 3D gas near a black hole would reveal previously-unseen parts of the universe and inform new physics models. However, only sparse radio measurements from a single viewpoint are possible, making the dynamic 3D reconstruction problem significantly ill-posed. Previously, BH-NeRF addressed the ill-posed problem by assuming Keplerian dynamics of the gas, but this assumption breaks down near the black hole, where the strong gravitational pull of the black hole and increased electromagnetic activity complicate fluid dynamics. To overcome the restrictive assumptions of BH-NeRF, we propose PI-DEF, a physics-informed approach that uses differentiable neural rendering to fit a 4D (time + 3D) emissivity field given EHT measurements. Our approach jointly reconstructs the 3D velocity field with the 4D emissivity field and enforces the velocity as a soft constraint on the dynamics of the emissivity. In experiments on simulated data, we find significantly improved reconstruction accuracy over both BH-NeRF and a physics-agnostic approach. We demonstrate how our method may be used to estimate other physics parameters of the black hole, such as its spin.

We present a scheme to obtain an inexpensive and reliable estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of a machine-learning model of atomic and molecular properties. The scheme is based on resampling, with multiple models being generated based on sub-sampling of the same training data. The accuracy of the uncertainty prediction can be benchmarked by maximum likelihood estimation, which can also be used to correct for correlations between resampled models, and to improve the performance of the uncertainty estimation by a cross-validation procedure. In the case of sparse Gaussian Process Regression models, this resampled estimator can be evaluated at negligible cost. We demonstrate the reliability of these estimates for the prediction of molecular energetics, and for the estimation of nuclear chemical shieldings in molecular crystals. Extension to estimate the uncertainty in energy differences, forces, or other correlated predictions is straightforward. This method can be easily applied to other machine learning schemes, and will be beneficial to make data-driven predictions more reliable, and to facilitate training-set optimization and active-learning strategies.

We establish a fundamental connection between score-based diffusion models and non-equilibrium thermodynamics by deriving performance limits based on entropy rates. Our main theoretical contribution is a lower bound on the negative log-likelihood of the data that relates model performance to entropy rates of diffusion processes. We numerically validate this bound on a synthetic dataset and investigate its tightness. By building a bridge to entropy rates - system, intrinsic, and exchange entropy - we provide new insights into the thermodynamic operation of these models, drawing parallels to Maxwell's demon and implications for thermodynamic computing hardware. Our framework connects generative modeling performance to fundamental physical principles through stochastic thermodynamics.

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

Parameter estimation for gravitational-wave signals is computationally demanding due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space and the cost of repeated waveform generation in traditional Bayesian inference. These analyses require on the order of 10^8 likelihood evaluations and waveform generations, resulting in inference times of hours to days per event. Furthermore, discrepancies between waveform models introduce systematic uncertainties that can bias inferred source properties. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework based on Simulation-based Inference (SBI) and Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and apply it to signals from Intermediate-Mass Black Holes (IMBH). In this framework, we train a single amortised neural posterior estimator on a large simulated dataset generated using two state-of-the-art waveform approximants, IMRPhenomXPHM and SEOBNRv5PHM. By treating the waveform model index as a latent variable, the network learns to produce posterior distributions that are naturally marginalized over the discrepancies of the two waveform models. Once trained, the model enables direct posterior sampling in milliseconds per event, eliminating the need for likelihood evaluations while simultaneously accounting for model systematics. We demonstrate that this approach recovers accurate posterior distributions for IMBH signals injected into Gaussian noise, achieving close agreement with traditional nested-sampling results while reducing inference time by several orders of magnitude. Our results show that NPE can robustly incorporate waveform-model systematics within a unified framework, offering a scalable path toward rapid, systematics-aware gravitational-wave inference. Establishing these methods as promising alternatives to classical likelihood-based pipelines for current and future high-mass gravitational-wave observations.

We study the problem of recovering the parameters of a multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process from steady-state observational and interventional data. In many applications, such as large-scale gene perturbation experiments, only stationary "snapshot" measurements are available, making standard stochastic differential equation estimation methods that rely on time-series trajectories inapplicable. We first establish an identifiability result: one intervention per strongly connected component (SCC) of the drift graph suffices to recover all OU process parameters generically up to a global scaling factor. This holds provided that the SCC condensation graph is connected with a single root and certain spectral nondegeneracy assumptions hold. We propose a recursive learning algorithm that orders SCCs topologically and, for each component, isolates its marginal dynamics and solves a linear system derived from the steady-state moment equations, leveraging parameters recovered for upstream components. Building on this theoretical foundation, we propose a regularized least-squares estimator that jointly minimizes residuals of the steady-state mean and covariance equations across observational and interventional data. Experimental results validate our theoretical findings in recovering parameters of the underlying OU process.

The limited availability and accuracy of simulated data has motivated the use of foundation models in high energy physics, with the idea to first train a task-agnostic model on large and potentially unlabeled datasets. This enables the subsequent fine-tuning of the learned representation for specific downstream tasks, potentially requiring much smaller dataset sizes to reach the performance of models trained from scratch. We study how OmniJet-α, one of the proposed foundation models for particle jets, can be used on a new set of tasks, and in a new dataset, in order to reconstruct hadronically decaying τ leptons. We show that the pretraining can successfully be utilized for this multi-task problem, improving the resolution of momentum reconstruction by about 50\% when the pretrained weights are fine-tuned, compared to training the model from scratch. While much work remains ahead to develop generic foundation models for high-energy physics, this early result of generalizing an existing model to a new dataset and to previously unconsidered tasks highlights the importance of testing the approaches on a diverse set of datasets and tasks.

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams, and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter-nucleon and dark matter-electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

We systematically study antithetic initial noise in diffusion models, discovering that pairing each noise sample with its negation consistently produces strong negative correlation. This universal phenomenon holds across datasets, model architectures, conditional and unconditional sampling, and even other generative models such as VAEs and Normalizing Flows. To explain it, we combine experiments and theory and propose a symmetry conjecture that the learned score function is approximately affine antisymmetric (odd symmetry up to a constant shift), supported by empirical evidence. This negative correlation leads to substantially more reliable uncertainty quantification with up to 90% narrower confidence intervals. We demonstrate these gains on tasks including estimating pixel-wise statistics and evaluating diffusion inverse solvers. We also provide extensions with randomized quasi-Monte Carlo noise designs for uncertainty quantification, and explore additional applications of the antithetic noise design to improve image editing and generation diversity. Our framework is training-free, model-agnostic, and adds no runtime overhead. Code is available at https://github.com/jjia131/Antithetic-Noise-in-Diffusion-Models-page.

In many real-world scenarios, obtaining fully observed samples is prohibitively expensive or even infeasible, while partial and noisy observations are comparatively easy to collect. In this work, we study distribution restoration with abundant noisy samples, assuming the corruption process is available as a black-box generator. We show that this task can be framed as a one-sided entropic optimal transport problem and solved via an EM-like algorithm. We further provide a test criterion to determine whether the true underlying distribution is recoverable under per-sample information loss, and show that in otherwise unrecoverable cases, a small number of clean samples can render the distribution largely recoverable. Building on these insights, we introduce SFBD-OMNI, a bridge model-based framework that maps corrupted sample distributions to the ground-truth distribution. Our method generalizes Stochastic Forward-Backward Deconvolution (SFBD; Lu et al., 2025) to handle arbitrary measurement models beyond Gaussian corruption. Experiments across benchmark datasets and diverse measurement settings demonstrate significant improvements in both qualitative and quantitative performance.

Kinetic equations are used to model a wide range of phenomena important for real-world applications. Their applications span astrophysics, nuclear physics, engineering, and social sciences. Due to their high-dimensional phase space, modelling and quantifying uncertainties, relevant for applications, poses a significant challenge even for modern computing infrastructure. In recent years, dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA) has gained popularity for making fine grid simulations of high-dimensional problems feasible by evolving the solution of a time-dependent PDE as a low-rank factorization. This reduces the computational and memory requirements significantly. In this work, we propose a low-rank multilevel Monte Carlo estimator for kinetic equations based on a probabilistic rank-adaptive DLRA time integrator. The level hierarchy of the low-rank multilevel estimator is constructed through spatial refinement and by ensuring that the low-rank error remains below the spatial discretization error. We demonstrate the efficacy of the estimator through several numerical experiments from radiation transport, radiation therapy, and shallow water flow.

Coincident multimessenger observations of cosmic sources can offer numerous benefits, especially when used in the context of synergistic astrophysics. One significant advantage is enhancing the detection significance of separate detectors by correlating their data and assuming joint emission. We have formulated an approach for updating the Bayesian posterior probability of an astrophysical origin, namely p_{rm astro}, relying on multimessenger coincidences assuming an emission model. The description is applicable to any combination of messengers. We demonstrated the formalism for the gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos case. Applying our method to the public data of candidate coincident high-energy neutrinos with subthreshold gravitational-wave triggers, we found that in the case of highly energetic neutrino coincidences, p_{rm astro} can increase from approximately sim 0.1 to sim 0.9. The amount of improvement depends on the assumed joint emission model. If models are trusted, the marked improvement makes subthreshold detections much more confident. Moreover, the model dependency can also be used to test the consistency of different models. This work is a crucial step toward the goal of uniting all detectors on equal footing into a statistically integrated, Earth-sized observatory for comprehensive multimessenger astrophysics.

We model the conservation of energy in the framework of the thin layer approximation for two types of interstellar medium (ISM). In particular, we analyse an ISM in the presence of self-gravity and a Gaussian ISM which produces an asymmetry in the advancing shell. The astrophysical targets to be simulated are the Fermi bubbles, the local bubble, and the W4 super-bubble. The theory of images is applied to a piriform curve, which allows deriving some analytical formulae for the observed intensity in the case of an optically thin medium.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

We propose the use of low bit-depth Sigma-Delta and distributed noise-shaping methods for quantizing the Random Fourier features (RFFs) associated with shift-invariant kernels. We prove that our quantized RFFs -- even in the case of 1-bit quantization -- allow a high accuracy approximation of the underlying kernels, and the approximation error decays at least polynomially fast as the dimension of the RFFs increases. We also show that the quantized RFFs can be further compressed, yielding an excellent trade-off between memory use and accuracy. Namely, the approximation error now decays exponentially as a function of the bits used. Moreover, we empirically show by testing the performance of our methods on several machine learning tasks that our method compares favorably to other state of the art quantization methods in this context.

High-fidelity simulations and complex inverse problems, such as detector modeling and unfolding, are computationally intensive bottlenecks across subatomic physics, yet essential for accurate physical interpretation. While Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) offers a robust acceleration approach, we demonstrate its standard training loss is fundamentally misleading. Specifically, utilizing a Jefferson Lab Nuclear Physics (NP) kinematic dataset (γp to ρ^0 p to π^+π^- p), we expose that CFM loss plateaus prematurely, obscuring ongoing physical refinement. To verify this disconnect is a dataset-agnostic pathology, we introduce ScatterPrism, an efficient generative surrogate evaluated against both the NP data and synthetic stress tests modeling challenging 1D distribution topologies. Coupling these benchmarks, we establish that physics-informed metrics continue improving long after standard loss converges. Consequently, we propose a multi-metric diagnostic protocol to ensure true kinematic fidelity without data memorization. Driven by NP challenges relevant to the forthcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), this unified machinery has strong potential to extend to High-Energy Physics (HEP) applications, such as jet modeling. Furthermore, the framework holds promise for broader domains requiring rigorous generative reliability, including medical imaging, astrophysics, and quantitative finance.

Diffusion models typically suffer from error accumulation during iterative sampling, commonly referred to as exposure bias. We reveal systematic frequency-dependent discrepancies between training and inference, which can be interpreted as frequency-dependent SNR error. Crucially, the direction of this mismatch varies across models and timesteps, indicating that fixed correction rules do not generalize. We propose Spectral Alignment (SPA), a lightweight, guidance-based method that calibrates the power spectrum of intermediate predictions to a pre-computed prior. Our approach consists of two stages: (1) offline fitting of a parametric spectrum model from training data, and (2) inference-time guidance via efficient FFT-based gradient computation. SPA introduces minimal computational overhead (3-4\%) and is complementary to Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). We demonstrate consistent improvements across diverse architectures, from pixel-space models (DDPM, ADM) to latent diffusion models (SD2.0, SDXL) and flow-matching models (SD3.5, FLUX). Our implementation is available at https://github.com/SonyResearch/SPA.

We present full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and polarized synchrotron and thermal dust emission, derived from the third set of Planck frequency maps. These products have significantly lower contamination from instrumental systematic effects than previous versions. The methodologies used to derive these maps follow those described in earlier papers, adopting four methods (Commander, NILC, SEVEM, and SMICA) to extract the CMB component, as well as three methods (Commander, GNILC, and SMICA) to extract astrophysical components. Our revised CMB temperature maps agree with corresponding products in the Planck 2015 delivery, whereas the polarization maps exhibit significantly lower large-scale power, reflecting the improved data processing described in companion papers; however, the noise properties of the resulting data products are complicated, and the best available end-to-end simulations exhibit relative biases with respect to the data at the few percent level. Using these maps, we are for the first time able to fit the spectral index of thermal dust independently over 3 degree regions. We derive a conservative estimate of the mean spectral index of polarized thermal dust emission of beta_d = 1.55 +/- 0.05, where the uncertainty marginalizes both over all known systematic uncertainties and different estimation techniques. For polarized synchrotron emission, we find a mean spectral index of beta_s = -3.1 +/- 0.1, consistent with previously reported measurements. We note that the current data processing does not allow for construction of unbiased single-bolometer maps, and this limits our ability to extract CO emission and correlated components. The foreground results for intensity derived in this paper therefore do not supersede corresponding Planck 2015 products. For polarization the new results supersede the corresponding 2015 products in all respects.

We develop a framework for non-asymptotic analysis of deterministic samplers used for diffusion generative modeling. Several recent works have analyzed stochastic samplers using tools like Girsanov's theorem and a chain rule variant of the interpolation argument. Unfortunately, these techniques give vacuous bounds when applied to deterministic samplers. We give a new operational interpretation for deterministic sampling by showing that one step along the probability flow ODE can be expressed as two steps: 1) a restoration step that runs gradient ascent on the conditional log-likelihood at some infinitesimally previous time, and 2) a degradation step that runs the forward process using noise pointing back towards the current iterate. This perspective allows us to extend denoising diffusion implicit models to general, non-linear forward processes. We then develop the first polynomial convergence bounds for these samplers under mild conditions on the data distribution.

We study quantum state tomography when the unknown state lies in a trace-distance ball of radius R around a known reference state ρ. For arbitrary collective measurements, we determine the minimax expected risk and confidence radius up to universal constants, uniformly over the dimension, center spectrum, radius, and sample size. Write Γ=d(Trsqrtρ)^2+d^2R. For dge2, 0<Rle1, and nge1 copies, the expected risk is Θ(min{R,Γ/n}). At failure probability 0<δle1/3, the minimax confidence radius is \[ Θ\!\left(\min\left\{R,\frac{Γ+\log(1/δ){n}}\right\}\right). \] For varepsilonle c_0R with a universal c_0>0, the copy complexity is Θ((Γ+log(1/δ))/varepsilon^2). For the lower bound we use a weighted trace-norm witness to retain all spectral scales in a square-root perturbation family. For the upper bound, we give a direct spectral and concentration analysis of a modified existing purification-based procedure.

In this work we propose an analytical model that reproduces the core-bounds phase of gravitational waves (GW) of Rapidly Rotating (RR) from Core Collapse Supernovae (CCSNe), as a function of three parameters, the arrival time tau, the ratio of the kinetic and potential energy beta and a phenomenological parameter alpha related to rotation and equation of state (EOS). To validate the model we use 126 waveforms from the Richers catalog Richers_2017 selected with the criteria of exploring a range of rotation profiles, and involving EOS. To quantify the degree of accuracy of the proposed model, with a particular focus on the rotation parameter beta, we show that the average Fitting Factor (FF) between the simulated waveforms with the templates is 94.4\%. In order to estimate the parameters we propose a frequentist matched filtering approach in real interferometric noise which does not require assigning any priors. We use the Matched Filter (MF) technique, where we inject a bank of templates considering simulated colored Gaussian noise and the real noise of O3L1. For example for A300w6.00\_BHBLP at 10Kpc we obtain a standar deviation of sigma = 3.34times 10^{-3} for simulated colored Gaussian noise and sigma= 1.46times 10^{-2} for real noise. On the other hand, from the asymptotic expansion of the variance we obtain the theoretical minimum error for beta at 10 kpc and optimal orientation. The estimation error in this case is from 10^{-2} to 10^{-3} as beta increases. We show that the results of the estimation error of beta for the 3-parameter space (3D) is consistent with the single-parameter space (1D), which allows us to conclude that beta is decoupled from the others two parameters.

We study a one dimensional nonlinear Klein-Gordon equation with a potential, a localized quadratic nonlinearity, and a non-localized quartic nonlinearity. We assume that the linearized operator has a single discrete eigenvalue below the continuous spectrum, corresponding to an ''internal mode''. This eigenvalue generates localized, time-periodic solutions for the linear equation. Assuming the natural Fermi Golden Rule, we give a global description of the dynamics of the amplitude of the internal mode through the radiation damping mechanism, and prove scattering for the radiation. Our approach is based on the distorted Fourier transform and a collection of refined dispersive decay and smoothing estimates. The corresponding cubic problem is closely related to the question of global-in-space dispersive asymptotics for perturbations of kink solutions in the classical ϕ^4 model, which remains a challenging open question. From the perspective of nonlinear estimates, a quartic (non-localized) interaction is essentially sharp for our analysis, and closing the estimates with such a low degree nonlinear term requires a careful and delicate treatment. As a direct application of our analysis, we prove a result on the asymptotic stability of kinks for classes of scalar field models that can be seen as perturbations of the ϕ^4 model.

We investigate a variational method for ill-posed problems, named graphLa+Psi, which embeds a graph Laplacian operator in the regularization term. The novelty of this method lies in constructing the graph Laplacian based on a preliminary approximation of the solution, which is obtained using any existing reconstruction method Psi from the literature. As a result, the regularization term is both dependent on and adaptive to the observed data and noise. We demonstrate that graphLa+Psi is a regularization method and rigorously establish both its convergence and stability properties. We present selected numerical experiments in 2D computerized tomography, wherein we integrate the graphLa+Psi method with various reconstruction techniques Psi, including Filter Back Projection (graphLa+FBP), standard Tikhonov (graphLa+Tik), Total Variation (graphLa+TV), and a trained deep neural network (graphLa+Net). The graphLa+Psi approach significantly enhances the quality of the approximated solutions for each method Psi. Notably, graphLa+Net is outperforming, offering a robust and stable application of deep neural networks in solving inverse problems.