Daily Papers

Deployed vision models auto-accept confident predictions, so high-confidence errors propagate silently. Maximum Softmax Probability (MSP), the standard failure predictor, has a structural blind spot: as a scalar read from the classifier head, it is first-order blind to feature variation orthogonal to its confidence gradient. Through a factorial analysis of feature-space detectors, we identify a conditional-redundancy principle explaining why they fail to complement MSP: the class-separability geometry they measure is already encoded in MSP and collapses under fusion. The signal that survives is class-conditional typicality on the off-manifold residual---and because this residual's distribution varies by backbone, from near-Gaussian to heavy-tailed, it must be estimated non-parametrically. We instantiate these findings as CANARY, a training-free detector that computes a per-class kNN distance on the PCA residual of the penultimate feature, percentile-calibrates it on validation data, and fuses it with MSP through a single validation-tuned weight. CANARY's benefit follows a headroom law: gains grow as baseline MSP quality falls, so a single clean-validation number forecasts the improvement. With every parameter selected on in-distribution data alone, CANARY matches or improves 382 of 385 shift cells (e-AURC; 379 on AUROC) across five backbones, with worst-case regression within seed noise (-0.0002 AUROC) and the largest gains on natural distribution shifts (ImageNet-A/R, ObjectNet)---where deployed models are most exposed.

A selector that allocates work across opaque components must evaluate them without being told how they performed. We study the least communication that suffices. Each parent maintains an allocation vector over its children and updates it from outcomes by proportional redistribution. Each child reads the sign of its own allocation change, one bit per round it is selected, so no evaluation message crosses the parent-child boundary. (1) The update preserves the simplex with strict positivity. (2) Conditional on being selected, a child's sign is exactly the root outcome at every depth, a sufficient statistic. The conditioning is necessary. (3) Under interiority a single selector has a unique interior equilibrium, exact and closed-form for N=2, with almost sure convergence under decreasing steps. For general N an equi-ratio condition gives an explicit affine equilibrium. (4) The linearised mean flow has real, strictly negative tangent eigenvalues with explicit bounds for all N >= 2. (5) The mean flow converges globally. An explicit potential, up to normalisation the KL divergence between the failure and slack distributions, decreases at a rate equal to the variance of the equi-ratio statistic. Without interiority the rule drops exactly the children below the surviving support's threshold. (6) The update law composes along a single active path, since ancestors select a node's active rounds but do not alter a realised signal. No joint convergence theorem for a hierarchy whose levels adapt simultaneously is claimed. (7) The one-bit interface admits exactly four deterministic memoryless distortions, and at a single selector passing the bit on unchanged delivers strictly higher mean quality upward than negation or constant transmission. Illustrations on synthetic hierarchies up to 16,384 leaves and three real datasets (3.4 billion comparisons, no mismatches) are consistent with the theory.

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

We develop Markov categories as a framework for synthetic probability and statistics, following work of Golubtsov as well as Cho and Jacobs. This means that we treat the following concepts in purely abstract categorical terms: conditioning and disintegration; various versions of conditional independence and its standard properties; conditional products; almost surely; sufficient statistics; versions of theorems on sufficient statistics due to Fisher--Neyman, Basu, and Bahadur. Besides the conceptual clarity offered by our categorical setup, its main advantage is that it provides a uniform treatment of various types of probability theory, including discrete probability theory, measure-theoretic probability with general measurable spaces, Gaussian probability, stochastic processes of either of these kinds, and many others.

We present Universal Conditional Logic (UCL), a mathematical framework for prompt optimization that transforms prompt engineering from heuristic practice into systematic optimization. Through systematic evaluation (N=305, 11 models, 4 iterations), we demonstrate significant token reduction (29.8%, t(10)=6.36, p < 0.001, Cohen's d = 2.01) with corresponding cost savings. UCL's structural overhead function O_s(A) explains version-specific performance differences through the Over-Specification Paradox: beyond threshold S* = 0.509, additional specification degrades performance quadratically. Core mechanisms -- indicator functions (I_i in {0,1}), structural overhead (O_s = gamma * sum(ln C_k)), early binding -- are validated. Notably, optimal UCL configuration varies by model architecture -- certain models (e.g., Llama 4 Scout) require version-specific adaptations (V4.1). This work establishes UCL as a calibratable framework for efficient LLM interaction, with model-family-specific optimization as a key research direction.

The Large Language Model from Power Law Decoder Representations (PLDR-LLM) and its attention, Power Law Graph Attention (PLGA), replace the fixed bilinear form of scaled dot-product attention (SDPA) with a learned, input-generated bilinear operator G_{LM}, built from a positive tensor A_{LM} by elementwise power laws. The architecture is fully specified, verified against pinned reference releases; claims are labeled theorem, conditional theorem, measurement, or conjecture. Unconditionally: PLGA contains SDPA exactly at G_{LM}=I; A_{LM} and A_P are strictly entrywise positive, with Perron-Frobenius structure on A_{LM}; the DAG regularizer has the NOTEARS walk-counting form and positivity obstructs exact acyclicity; and, under nonresonance (satisfied by standard rotary frequencies), a commutant criterion identifies which operators preserve relative-position dependence. An inference-collapse theorem: exact input invariance of deductive outputs collapses inference to generalized SDPA with a constant operator. Measured invariance: relative fluctuations of 10^{-6} and below; perturbation bounds quantify but do not certify cached inference; the assembled proxy misses the decoding margin. A conditional three-stage mechanism (rotary twirl, concentration, row-map contraction) is measured on a released checkpoint. Blockwise training and scoring under the global Gram are stated with explicit target exposure; on tested samples, block and sequential scoring select identical answers and agree on the published TruthfulQA probability-mass metric within 5times 10^{-5} per item. Self-organized criticality enters as a phenomenological framework with an intrinsic order parameter; open claims become falsifiable conjectures. Selected proof cores are machine-checked in Lean 4.

The input side of the Information Bottleneck may contain task-irrelevant variation that still costs rate. We identify this cost exactly. Let T be a source and C a relevance variable. Suppose the deterministic statistic Z = phi(T) satisfies C-Z-T. For any encoder p(X|T), its conditional average over the fibres of phi preserves I(X;C) and lowers the rate by I(X;T|Z). The reverse pullback preserves both coordinates. These maps establish equality of the relevance-rate curves and Lagrangian infima on standard Borel spaces for every tradeoff parameter. They also characterise all attained optima. Every full-source minimiser factors through Z, and every reduced minimiser pulls back to T. When C is finite and distortion is logarithmic loss, replacement of T^n by Z^n also preserves the optimal remote distortion at every blocklength and message budget. The operational rate-distortion functions are therefore equal.

In this paper, we propose a weak regularity principle which is similar to both weak K\"onig's lemma and Ramsey's theorem. We begin by studying the computational strength of this principle in the context of reverse mathematics. We then analyze different ways of generalizing this principle.

Conditional Neural Processes (CNPs) are a class of metalearning models popular for combining the runtime efficiency of amortized inference with reliable uncertainty quantification. Many relevant machine learning tasks, such as in spatio-temporal modeling, Bayesian Optimization and continuous control, inherently contain equivariances -- for example to translation -- which the model can exploit for maximal performance. However, prior attempts to include equivariances in CNPs do not scale effectively beyond two input dimensions. In this work, we propose Relational Conditional Neural Processes (RCNPs), an effective approach to incorporate equivariances into any neural process model. Our proposed method extends the applicability and impact of equivariant neural processes to higher dimensions. We empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of RCNPs on a large array of tasks naturally containing equivariances.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

The analysis of scientific data and complex multivariate systems requires information quantities that capture relationships among multiple random variables. Recently, new information-theoretic measures have been developed to overcome the shortcomings of classical ones, such as mutual information, that are restricted to considering pairwise interactions. Among them, the concept of information synergy and redundancy is crucial for understanding the high-order dependencies between variables. One of the most prominent and versatile measures based on this concept is O-information, which provides a clear and scalable way to quantify the synergy-redundancy balance in multivariate systems. However, its practical application is limited to simplified cases. In this work, we introduce SOmegaI, which allows for the first time to compute O-information without restrictive assumptions about the system. Our experiments validate our approach on synthetic data, and demonstrate the effectiveness of SOmegaI in the context of a real-world use case.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) is rapidly closing the gap with supervised methods on large computer vision benchmarks. A successful approach to SSL is to learn embeddings which are invariant to distortions of the input sample. However, a recurring issue with this approach is the existence of trivial constant solutions. Most current methods avoid such solutions by careful implementation details. We propose an objective function that naturally avoids collapse by measuring the cross-correlation matrix between the outputs of two identical networks fed with distorted versions of a sample, and making it as close to the identity matrix as possible. This causes the embedding vectors of distorted versions of a sample to be similar, while minimizing the redundancy between the components of these vectors. The method is called Barlow Twins, owing to neuroscientist H. Barlow's redundancy-reduction principle applied to a pair of identical networks. Barlow Twins does not require large batches nor asymmetry between the network twins such as a predictor network, gradient stopping, or a moving average on the weight updates. Intriguingly it benefits from very high-dimensional output vectors. Barlow Twins outperforms previous methods on ImageNet for semi-supervised classification in the low-data regime, and is on par with current state of the art for ImageNet classification with a linear classifier head, and for transfer tasks of classification and object detection.

``What are the irreducible conditions that are sufficient to produce an outcome?'' is one of the most common questions that recur across computation and science. Its answers, the minimal sufficient witnesses, are what we mean by explanations, mechanisms and reasons. These problems usually ask for multiple minimal witnesses, yet standard RL methods may reveal only one solution or redundant ones. We formalize this problem as minimal-witness identification and introduce Minimal-Witness Reinforcement Learning (MWRL). MWRL takes the union of the sets certified by successful proposals sampled from the policy and credits each proposal for the coverage the group union would lose without that proposal. This credit assignment, derived directly from the problem definition, unifies the demands for minimality and recovery of alternatives from a single black-box verifier bit. Under this principle, we derive a value iteration planner that recovers the entire family of witnesses and a policy gradient method that can scale to large language models. Across different experimental settings, MWRL recovers most minimal witnesses, while other methods return redundant supersets or a single witness. By making witness families learnable from verifier feedback, MWRL expands the scope of reinforcement learning beyond single-solution optimization. Our code is available at https://github.com/TSUITUENYUE/MWRL.

We argue that progress toward AGI is theory limited rather than data or scale limited. Building on the critical rationalism of Popper and Deutsch, we challenge the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Observationally equivalent worlds can diverge under interventions, so observational adequacy alone cannot guarantee interventional competence. We begin by laying foundations, definitions of knowledge, learning, intelligence, counterfactual competence and AGI, and then analyze the limits of observational learning that motivate an error centric shift. We recast the problem as three questions about how explicit and implicit errors evolve under an agent's actions, which errors are unreachable within a fixed hypothesis space, and how conjecture and criticism expand that space. From these questions we propose Causal Mechanics, a mechanisms first program in which hypothesis space change is a first class operation and probabilistic structure is used when useful rather than presumed. We advance structural principles that make error discovery and correction tractable, including a differential Locality and Autonomy Principle for modular interventions, a gauge invariant form of Independent Causal Mechanisms for separability, and the Compositional Autonomy Principle for analogy preservation, together with actionable diagnostics. The aim is a scaffold for systems that can convert unreachable errors into reachable ones and correct them.

This article shows yet another proof of NP=CoNP$. In a previous article, we proved that NP=PSPACE and from it we can conclude that NP=CoNP immediately. The former proof shows how to obtain polynomial and, polynomial in time checkable Dag-like proofs for all purely implicational Minimal logic tautologies. From the fact that Minimal implicational logic is PSPACE-complete we get the proof that NP=PSPACE. This first proof of NP=CoNP uses Hudelmaier linear upper-bound on the height of Sequent Calculus minimal implicational logic proofs. In an addendum to the proof of NP=PSPACE, we observe that we do not need to use Hudelmaier upper-bound since any proof of non-hamiltonicity for any graph is linear upper-bounded. By the CoNP-completeness of non-hamiltonicity, we obtain NP=CoNP as a corollary of the first proof. In this article we show the third proof of CoNP=NP, also providing polynomial size and polynomial verifiable certificates that are Dags. They are generated from normal Natural Deduction proofs, linear height upper-bounded too, by removing redundancy, i.e., repeated parts. The existence of repeated parts is a consequence of the redundancy theorem for a family of super-polynomial proofs in the purely implicational Minimal logic. It is mandatory to read at least two previous articles to get the details of the proof presented here. The article that proves the redundancy theorem and the article that shows how to remove the repeated parts of a normal Natural Deduction proof to have a polynomial Dag certificate for minimal implicational logic tautologies.

A new information theoretic condition is presented for reconstructing a discrete random variable X based on the knowledge of a set of discrete functions of X. The reconstruction condition is derived from Shannon's 1953 lattice theory with two entropic metrics of Shannon and Rajski. Because such a theoretical material is relatively unknown and appears quite dispersed in different references, we first provide a synthetic description (with complete proofs) of its concepts, such as total, common and complementary informations. Definitions and properties of the two entropic metrics are also fully detailed and shown compatible with the lattice structure. A new geometric interpretation of such a lattice structure is then investigated that leads to a necessary (and sometimes sufficient) condition for reconstructing the discrete random variable X given a set { X_1,ldots,X_{n} } of elements in the lattice generated by X. Finally, this condition is illustrated in five specific examples of perfect reconstruction problems: reconstruction of a symmetric random variable from the knowledge of its sign and absolute value, reconstruction of a word from a set of linear combinations, reconstruction of an integer from its prime signature (fundamental theorem of arithmetic) and from its remainders modulo a set of coprime integers (Chinese remainder theorem), and reconstruction of the sorting permutation of a list from a minimal set of pairwise comparisons.

The Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM) principle was first proposed by Arjovsky et al. [2019] to address the domain generalization problem by leveraging data heterogeneity from differing experimental conditions. Specifically, IRM seeks to find a data representation under which an optimal classifier remains invariant across all domains. Despite the conceptual appeal of IRM, the effectiveness of the originally proposed invariance penalty has recently been brought into question. In particular, there exists counterexamples for which that invariance penalty can be arbitrarily small for non-invariant data representations. We propose an alternative invariance penalty by revisiting the Gramian matrix of the data representation. We discuss the role of its eigenvalues in the relationship between the risk and the invariance penalty, and demonstrate that it is ill-conditioned for said counterexamples. The proposed approach is guaranteed to recover an invariant representation for linear settings under mild non-degeneracy conditions. Its effectiveness is substantiated by experiments on DomainBed and InvarianceUnitTest, two extensive test beds for domain generalization.

Conditional memory expands language-model capacity through selective lookup, but the full embedding table must remain available for every possible input. We introduce Conditional Program (CP), a compressed representation that reconstructs only the rows an input requests. CP represents each row by a short code and a local scale, with a reconstruction program shared across the table. We instantiate this representation with a Gaussian trellis, norm restoration and independently decodable row records. CP's two-bit code lowers output KL by 41--63\% relative to 2-bit round-to-nearest. Analysis across three trained n-gram memory families shows that Gaussian-like coordinate statistics coexist with learned relationships among rows; at matched storage budgets, the shared trellis outperforms the fitted codebooks and low-rank residual variants we test. For DeepSeek, it reduces table storage from 203GB to 51GB, leaving room for larger workloads when the table is kept on GPU.

Using fault-tolerant constructions, computations performed with unreliable components can simulate their noiseless counterparts though the introduction of a modest amount of redundancy. Given the modest overhead required to achieve fault-tolerance, and the fact that increasing the reliability of basic components often comes at a cost, are there situations where fault-tolerance may be more economical? We present a general framework to account for this overhead cost in order to effectively compare fault-tolerant to non-fault-tolerant approaches for computation, in the limit of small logical error rates. Using this detailed accounting, we determine explicit boundaries at which fault-tolerant designs become more efficient than designs that achieve comparable reliability through direct consumption of resources. We find that the fault-tolerant construction is always preferred in the limit of high reliability in cases where the resources required to construct a basic unit grows faster than log(1 / epsilon) asymptotically for small epsilon.

Traditional weight of evidence assigns a credit characteristic a value based on its association with default across a population. Credit analysis also requires an assessment of that characteristic in the context of an individual applicant's record. We study conditional weight of evidence for this purpose. It measures the change in default log odds from observing a characteristic after the remaining credit information is known. Its sign identifies whether the characteristic adds adverse or favorable information for that applicant, and its magnitude measures the strength of that information. The same characteristic value can therefore receive different assessments for applicants with different payment histories or other credit attributes. We develop estimators using gradient-boosted trees and evaluate their accuracy in a bureau-style simulation. Regressions of the full model's predicted probabilities recover conditional evidence more accurately than separate models fitted to default outcomes, provided the full model is accurate. They also recover a deliberately constructed file-age effect whose direction varies with utilization and is often missed by marginal weight of evidence. Local class-frequency estimates improve on marginal weight of evidence but remain inaccurate for some weak effects. An application to FICO HELOC data illustrates estimation when the population evidence is unknown. Conditional weight of evidence provides an applicant-specific interpretation of the information in a credit characteristic; its population summary, a conditional information value, splits the joint information in the record across blocks when averaged over orderings. Neither is an adverse action reason, which explains the fitted score difference between the applicant and chosen passing records.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) often suffer from overthinking, generating unnecessarily long reasoning chains even for simple tasks. This leads to substantial computational overhead with limited performance gain, primarily due to redundant verification and repetitive generation. While prior work typically constrains output length or optimizes correctness, such coarse supervision fails to guide models toward concise yet accurate inference. In this paper, we propose ENTRA, an entropy-based training framework that suppresses redundant reasoning while preserving performance. ENTRA first estimates the token-level importance using a lightweight Bidirectional Importance Estimation (BIE) method, which accounts for both prediction confidence and forward influence. It then computes a redundancy reward based on the entropy of low-importance tokens, normalized by its theoretical upper bound, and optimizes this reward via reinforcement learning. Experiments on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that ENTRA reduces output length by 37% to 53% with no loss-and in some cases, gains-in accuracy. Our approach offers a principled and efficient solution to reduce overthinking in LRMs, and provides a generalizable path toward redundancy-aware reasoning optimization.

We develop a continual learning method for pretrained models that requires no access to old-task data, addressing a practical barrier in foundation model adaptation where pretraining distributions are often unavailable. Our key observation is that pretrained networks exhibit substantial geometric redundancy, and that this redundancy can be exploited in two complementary ways. First, redundant neurons provide a proxy for dominant pretraining-era feature directions, enabling the construction of approximately protected update subspaces directly from pretrained weights. Second, redundancy offers a natural bias for where to place plasticity: by restricting updates to a subset of redundant neurons and constraining the remaining degrees of freedom, we obtain update families with reduced functional drift on the old-data distribution and improved worst-case retention guarantees. These insights lead to PLATE (Plasticity-Tunable Efficient Adapters), a continual learning method requiring no past-task data that provides explicit control over the plasticity-retention trade-off. PLATE parameterizes each layer with a structured low-rank update ΔW = B A Q^top, where B and Q are computed once from pretrained weights and kept frozen, and only A is trained on the new task. The code is available at https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/PLATE.

This article summarizes principles and ideas from the emerging area of applying conditional computation methods to the design of neural networks. In particular, we focus on neural networks that can dynamically activate or de-activate parts of their computational graph conditionally on their input. Examples include the dynamic selection of, e.g., input tokens, layers (or sets of layers), and sub-modules inside each layer (e.g., channels in a convolutional filter). We first provide a general formalism to describe these techniques in an uniform way. Then, we introduce three notable implementations of these principles: mixture-of-experts (MoEs) networks, token selection mechanisms, and early-exit neural networks. The paper aims to provide a tutorial-like introduction to this growing field. To this end, we analyze the benefits of these modular designs in terms of efficiency, explainability, and transfer learning, with a focus on emerging applicative areas ranging from automated scientific discovery to semantic communication.

We define a probabilistic programming language for Gaussian random variables with a first-class exact conditioning construct. We give operational, denotational and equational semantics for this language, establishing convenient properties like exchangeability of conditions. Conditioning on equality of continuous random variables is nontrivial, as the exact observation may have probability zero; this is Borel's paradox. Using categorical formulations of conditional probability, we show that the good properties of our language are not particular to Gaussians, but can be derived from universal properties, thus generalizing to wider settings. We define the Cond construction, which internalizes conditioning as a morphism, providing general compositional semantics for probabilistic programming with exact conditioning.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) often produce excessively verbose reasoning traces, a phenomenon known as overthinking, which hampers both efficiency and interpretability. Prior works primarily address this issue by reducing response length, without fully examining the underlying semantic structure of the reasoning process. In this paper, we revisit overthinking by decomposing it into two distinct forms: internal redundancy, which consists of low-contribution reasoning steps within the first correct solution (FCS), and external redundancy, which refers to unnecessary continuation after the FCS. To mitigate both forms, we propose a dual-penalty reinforcement learning framework. For internal redundancy, we adopt a sliding-window semantic analysis to penalize low-gain reasoning steps that contribute little toward reaching the correct answer. For external redundancy, we penalize its proportion beyond the FCS to encourage earlier termination. Our method significantly compresses reasoning traces with minimal accuracy loss, and generalizes effectively to out-of-domain tasks such as question answering and code generation. Crucially, we find that external redundancy can be safely removed without degrading performance, whereas internal redundancy must be reduced more cautiously to avoid impairing correctness. These findings suggest that our method not only improves reasoning efficiency but also enables implicit, semantic-aware control over Chain-of-Thought length, paving the way for more concise and interpretable LRMs.

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable success, yet they often suffer from producing unnecessary and verbose reasoning chains. We identify a core aspect of this issue as "invalid thinking" -- models tend to repeatedly double-check their work after having derived the correct answer. To address this specific inefficiency, we move beyond the general principles of Efficacy and Efficiency to propose two new, fine-grained principles: Brevity, which advocates for eliminating redundancy, and Sufficiency, which ensures critical reasoning steps are preserved. Guided by these principles, we introduce LC-R1, a post-training method based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). LC-R1 employs a novel combination of a Length Reward for overall conciseness and a Compress Reward that is specifically designed to remove the invalid portion of the thinking process. Extensive experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that LC-R1 achieves a significant reduction in sequence length (~50%) with only a marginal (~2%) drop in accuracy, achieving a favorable trade-off point on the Pareto frontier that prioritizes high compression. Our analysis further validates the robustness of LC-R1 and provides valuable insights for developing more powerful yet computationally efficient LRMs. Our code is released at https://github.com/zxiangx/LC-R1.

To measure the difference between two probability distributions, referred to as the source and target, respectively, we exploit both the chain rule and Bayes' theorem to construct conditional transport (CT), which is constituted by both a forward component and a backward one. The forward CT is the expected cost of moving a source data point to a target one, with their joint distribution defined by the product of the source probability density function (PDF) and a source-dependent conditional distribution, which is related to the target PDF via Bayes' theorem. The backward CT is defined by reversing the direction. The CT cost can be approximated by replacing the source and target PDFs with their discrete empirical distributions supported on mini-batches, making it amenable to implicit distributions and stochastic gradient descent-based optimization. When applied to train a generative model, CT is shown to strike a good balance between mode-covering and mode-seeking behaviors and strongly resist mode collapse. On a wide variety of benchmark datasets for generative modeling, substituting the default statistical distance of an existing generative adversarial network with CT is shown to consistently improve the performance. PyTorch code is provided.

Flow-based methods have achieved significant success in various generative modeling tasks, capturing nuanced details within complex data distributions. However, few existing works have exploited this unique capability to resolve fine-grained structural details beyond generation tasks. This paper presents a flow-inspired framework for representation learning. First, we demonstrate that a rectified flow trained using independent coupling is zero everywhere at t=0.5 if and only if the source and target distributions are identical. We term this property the zero-flow criterion. Second, we show that this criterion can certify conditional independence, thereby extracting sufficient information from the data. Third, we translate this criterion into a tractable, simulation-free loss function that enables learning amortized Markov blankets in graphical models and latent representations in self-supervised learning tasks. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code reproducing our experiments can be found at: https://github.com/probabilityFLOW/zfe.

Autonomous agents increasingly perform bounded software tasks under an orchestrator that retries, resumes, and budgets them. The machinery such orchestrators reach for is the service mesh's: retry, timeout, and error-rate circuit breaking. We report a failure study of a production agentic software-delivery platform over 147 numbered incidents spanning 81 runs, each with a measured cost and, in most cases, a mutation proof reproducing the failure. All three assumptions those primitives rest on are violated in practice, and we quantify the consequences: a loop of fifty-four consecutive successful tool calls no error-rate breaker could see; a progress signal constant by construction, guaranteeing a false trip on the third repair round and driving one run from six of six components to three; twenty-one events accumulated across six invocations of one delegation, making a correct, idempotent component unwinnable; a misrouted failure that woke five components for a two-component fault, leaving three bystanders regressing working code; and twelve incidents in which the enforcement layer blocked correct work, the most expensive costing 107 agent turns and zero accepted writes. We find one cross-cutting cause and its dual. Identity adequacy: in five separate subsystems an identity that failed to discriminate produced a confident wrong answer, and two of them derived the corrective rule independently. Evidence adequacy: a reliability decision may be taken only on evidence capable of moving, attributable to what it measures, and deterministic under identical conditions. From the findings we derive seven reliability primitives whose enforcement unit is the delegation rather than the message, and specify the controlled evaluation the study motivates but does not constitute.

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal coverage guarantees, where predictive coverage holds on average over all possible test points, but this is not sufficient for many practical applications where we would like to know that our predictions are valid for a given individual, not merely on average over a population. On the other hand, exact conditional inference guarantees are known to be impossible without imposing assumptions on the underlying distribution. In this work we aim to explore the space in between these two, and examine what types of relaxations of the conditional coverage property would alleviate some of the practical concerns with marginal coverage guarantees while still being possible to achieve in a distribution-free setting.

A declared task can sometimes certify a reduced source before a downstream encoder, codebook, rate, distortion target, or optimizer is chosen. This paper studies when one such reduction preserves the complete downstream problem family, a property termed Task-Sufficient Contraction. The reduced source is fixed by the task before the later operating point is selected. An exact contraction allows the later problem to be solved on that source with the same result as if the full source had been retained. For a machine with a fixed set of possible actions and a fixed loss, the paper identifies a consumer-specific source by merging states only when every available action has the same regret in both. For finite action sets, replacing the richer source by this reduced source preserves the complete one-step rate-regret curve, even though the reduction is fixed before the distortion target is chosen. A second result gives an exact characterization for quadratic loss on affine feasible-action sets: the canonical reduced source is the projection onto the directions in which feasible actions can differ. Under a fixed energy budget, this becomes centered load, while retaining only the optimal water-filled action is too coarse. Earlier Information Bottleneck, semantic rate-distortion, and goal-oriented quantization results are then used to distinguish exact, architecture-conditioned, approximate, failed, and corrected contractions. The framework suggests a way for heterogeneous machines to exchange what a receiving task needs without first aligning their full internal representations.

Organizations across finance, healthcare, transportation, content moderation, and critical infrastructure are rapidly deploying highly automated AI systems, yet they lack principled methods to quantify how increasing automation amplifies harm when failures occur. We propose a parsimonious Bayesian risk decomposition expressing expected loss as the product of three terms: the probability of system failure, the conditional probability that a failure propagates into harm given the automation level, and the expected severity of harm. This framework isolates a critical quantity -- the conditional probability that failures propagate into harm -- which captures execution and oversight risk rather than model accuracy alone. We develop complete theoretical foundations: formal proofs of the decomposition, a harm propagation equivalence theorem linking the harm propagation probability to observable execution controls, risk elasticity measures, efficient frontier analysis for automation policy, and optimal resource allocation principles with second-order conditions. We motivate the framework with an illustrative case study of the 2012 Knight Capital incident ($440M loss) as one instantiation of a broadly applicable failure pattern, and characterize the research design required to empirically validate the framework at scale across deployment domains. This work provides the theoretical foundations for a new class of deployment-focused risk governance tools for agentic and automated AI systems.

In online reinforcement learning (RL), instead of employing standard structural assumptions on Markov decision processes (MDPs), using a certain coverage condition (original from offline RL) is enough to ensure sample-efficient guarantees (Xie et al. 2023). In this work, we focus on this new direction by digging more possible and general coverage conditions, and study the potential and the utility of them in efficient online RL. We identify more concepts, including the L^p variant of concentrability, the density ratio realizability, and trade-off on the partial/rest coverage condition, that can be also beneficial to sample-efficient online RL, achieving improved regret bound. Furthermore, if exploratory offline data are used, under our coverage conditions, both statistically and computationally efficient guarantees can be achieved for online RL. Besides, even though the MDP structure is given, e.g., linear MDP, we elucidate that, good coverage conditions are still beneficial to obtain faster regret bound beyond O(T) and even a logarithmic order regret. These results provide a good justification for the usage of general coverage conditions in efficient online RL.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Recent progress in image generation has sparked research into controlling these models through condition signals, with various methods addressing specific challenges in conditional generation. Instead of proposing another specialized technique, we introduce a simple, unified framework to handle diverse conditional generation tasks involving a specific image-condition correlation. By learning a joint distribution over a correlated image pair (e.g. image and depth) with a diffusion model, our approach enables versatile capabilities via different inference-time sampling schemes, including controllable image generation (e.g. depth to image), estimation (e.g. image to depth), signal guidance, joint generation (image & depth), and coarse control. Previous attempts at unification often introduce significant complexity through multi-stage training, architectural modification, or increased parameter counts. In contrast, our simple formulation requires a single, computationally efficient training stage, maintains the standard model input, and adds minimal learned parameters (15% of the base model). Moreover, our model supports additional capabilities like non-spatially aligned and coarse conditioning. Extensive results show that our single model can produce comparable results with specialized methods and better results than prior unified methods. We also demonstrate that multiple models can be effectively combined for multi-signal conditional generation.

Unitary quantum theory, having no Born Rule, is non-probabilistic. Hence the notorious problem of reconciling it with the unpredictability and appearance of stochasticity in quantum measurements. Generalising and improving upon the so-called 'decision-theoretic approach' (Deutsch, 1999; Wallace, 2003, 2007, 2012), I shall recast that problem in the recently proposed constructor theory of information - where quantum theory is represented as one of a class of superinformation theories, which are local, non-probabilistic theories conforming to certain constructor-theoretic conditions. I prove that the unpredictability of measurement outcomes (to which I give an exact meaning via constructor theory), necessarily arises in superinformation theories. Then I explain how the appearance of stochasticity in (finitely many) repeated measurements can arise under superinformation theories. And I establish sufficient conditions for a superinformation theory to inform decisions (made under it) as if it were probabilistic, via a Deutsch-Wallace-type argument - thus defining a class of decision-supporting superinformation theories. This broadens the domain of applicability of that argument to cover constructor-theory compliant theories. In addition, in this version some of the argument's assumptions, previously construed as merely decision-theoretic, follow from physical properties expressed by constructor-theoretic principles.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

This paper studies the problem of recovering cameras from a set of fundamental matrices. A set of fundamental matrices is said to be compatible if a set of cameras exists for which they are the fundamental matrices. We focus on the complete graph, where fundamental matrices for each pair of cameras are given. Previous work has established necessary and sufficient conditions for compatibility as rank and eigenvalue conditions on the n-view fundamental matrix obtained by concatenating the individual fundamental matrices. In this work, we show that the eigenvalue condition is redundant. We provide explicit homogeneous polynomials that describe necessary and sufficient conditions for compatibility in terms of the fundamental matrices and their epipoles. In this direction, we find that quadruple-wise compatibility is enough to ensure global compatibility for any number of cameras. We demonstrate that for four cameras, compatibility is generically described by triple-wise conditions and one additional equation involving all fundamental matrices.

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere mathbb S^{d-1}. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on mathbb S^{d-1} to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on (mathbb S^{d-1})^L both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

Conditional computing processes an input using only part of the neural network's computational units. Learning to execute parts of a deep convolutional network by routing individual samples has several advantages: Reducing the computational burden is an obvious advantage. Furthermore, if similar classes are routed to the same path, that part of the network learns to discriminate between finer differences and better classification accuracies can be attained with fewer parameters. Recently, several papers have exploited this idea to take a particular child of a node in a tree-shaped network or to skip parts of a network. In this work, we follow a Trellis-based approach for generating specific execution paths in a deep convolutional neural network. We have designed routing mechanisms that use differentiable information gain-based cost functions to determine which subset of features in a convolutional layer will be executed. We call our method Conditional Information Gain Trellis (CIGT). We show that our conditional execution mechanism achieves comparable or better model performance compared to unconditional baselines, using only a fraction of the computational resources.

RL post-training strategies are dataset-dependent and reveal a recurring empirical pattern: capacity parameters accumulate monotonically across stages, while regularization parameters predominantly oscillate in response to shifting training dynamics. This distinction matters because fixed schedules commit all parameters to fixed trajectories and therefore cannot express the non-stationary exploration-exploitation tradeoffs that regularization must track; the principle provides actionable design rules for multi-stage training. We discover this through LLMZero, a system where LLM agents search over training trajectories via tree search, diagnosing pathologies at each checkpoint and proposing coordinated multi-parameter transitions. Across 4 diverse GRPO tasks, LLMZero discovers strategies that improve over the base model by 9% to 140% relative and over grid search by 6% to 15% relative, consistently outperforming random search and the skill-based agent. The structural principle transfers across tasks, providing an explanation for why discovered strategies take qualitatively different forms yet share similar parameter dynamics.

We study causal logistic bandits with counterfactual fairness constraints. The causal structure is given through known factual and counterfactual feature maps that share an unknown logistic reward parameter, but the learner observes only factual rewards. Consequently, the directions determining counterfactual feasibility need not be identifiable from the available feedback. The closest prior analyses either omit a coverage condition or impose a comparatively strong one, and do not establish matching lower bounds. We first show that some coverage condition is necessary: without a coverage-type restriction, factually indistinguishable environments with different optimal fair actions force Ω(T) expected joint loss. Under a weaker full-rank condition on the factual covariance pooled across actions, we identify a target-specific information scale V_star that measures the difficulty of estimating rewards and counterfactual effects from factual feedback. We construct worst-case families satisfying this condition on which every policy incurs expected joint loss Ωleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}right). We also give an explore--then--exploit procedure tuned using V_star and an adaptive algorithm that does not require its value. Both algorithms achieve max{R_T,V_T}=Oleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}+κd/σ_0^2right), where R_T is regret relative to the best fair action and V_T denotes the cumulative stage-wise positive violations. Thus the upper and lower bounds match in their leading dependence on T, V_star, and min{log K,d}, up to logarithmic factors.

We propose a stronger formulation of RL on top of RWKV-style recurrent sequence models, in which the fixed-size recurrent state is explicitly interpreted as a belief state rather than an opaque hidden vector. Instead of conditioning policy and value on a single summary h_t, we maintain a compact uncertainty-aware state b_t = (μ_t, Σ_t) derived from RWKV-style recurrent statistics and let control depend on both memory and uncertainty. This design targets a key weakness of plain fixed-state policies in partially observed settings: they may store evidence, but not necessarily confidence. We present the method, a theoretical program, and a pilot RL experiment with hidden episode-level observation noise together with a test-time noise sweep. The pilot shows that belief-state policies nearly match the best recurrent baseline overall while slightly improving return on the hardest in-distribution regime and under a held-out noise shift. Additional ablations show that this simple belief readout is currently stronger than two more structured extensions, namely gated memory control and privileged belief targets, underscoring the need for richer benchmarks.

We establish a fundamental connection between optimal structure learning and optimal conditional independence testing by showing that the minimax optimal rate for structure learning problems is determined by the minimax rate for conditional independence testing in these problems. This is accomplished by establishing a general reduction between these two problems in the case of poly-forests, and demonstrated by deriving optimal rates for several examples, including Bernoulli, Gaussian and nonparametric models. Furthermore, we show that the optimal algorithm in these settings is a suitable modification of the PC algorithm. This theoretical finding provides a unified framework for analyzing the statistical complexity of structure learning through the lens of minimax testing.

While conditional diffusion models are known to have good coverage of the data distribution, they still face limitations in output diversity, particularly when sampled with a high classifier-free guidance scale for optimal image quality or when trained on small datasets. We attribute this problem to the role of the conditioning signal in inference and offer an improved sampling strategy for diffusion models that can increase generation diversity, especially at high guidance scales, with minimal loss of sample quality. Our sampling strategy anneals the conditioning signal by adding scheduled, monotonically decreasing Gaussian noise to the conditioning vector during inference to balance diversity and condition alignment. Our Condition-Annealed Diffusion Sampler (CADS) can be used with any pretrained model and sampling algorithm, and we show that it boosts the diversity of diffusion models in various conditional generation tasks. Further, using an existing pretrained diffusion model, CADS achieves a new state-of-the-art FID of 1.70 and 2.31 for class-conditional ImageNet generation at 256times256 and 512times512 respectively.

RRT* is one of the most widely used sampling-based algorithms for asymptotically-optimal motion planning. This algorithm laid the foundations for optimality in motion planning as a whole, and inspired the development of numerous new algorithms in the field, many of which build upon RRT* itself. In this paper, we first identify a logical gap in the optimality proof of RRT*, which was developed in Karaman and Frazzoli (2011). Then, we present an alternative and mathematically-rigorous proof for asymptotic optimality. Our proof suggests that the connection radius used by RRT* should be increased from γleft(log n{n}right)^{1/d} to γ' left(log n{n}right)^{1/(d+1)} in order to account for the additional dimension of time that dictates the samples' ordering. Here γ, γ', are constants, and n, d, are the number of samples and the dimension of the problem, respectively.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) can elicit strong multi-step reasoning, yet it often encourages overly verbose traces. Moreover, naive length penalties in group-relative optimization can severely hurt accuracy. We attribute this failure to two structural issues: (i) Dilution of Length Baseline, where incorrect responses (with zero length reward) depress the group baseline and over-penalize correct solutions; and (ii) Difficulty-Penalty Mismatch, where a static penalty cannot adapt to problem difficulty, suppressing necessary reasoning on hard instances while leaving redundancy on easy ones. We propose Dynamic Decoupled Conditional Advantage (DDCA) to decouple efficiency optimization from correctness. DDCA computes length advantages conditionally within the correct-response cluster to eliminate baseline dilution, and dynamically scales the penalty strength using the group pass rate as a proxy for difficulty. Experiments on GSM8K, MATH500, AMC23, and AIME25 show that DDCA consistently improves the efficiency--accuracy trade-off relative to adaptive baselines, reducing generated tokens by approximately 60% on simpler tasks (e.g., GSM8K) versus over 20% on harder benchmarks (e.g., AIME25), thereby maintaining or improving accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/alphadl/DDCA.

The Lottery Ticket Hypothesis demonstrated that sparse subnetworks can match full-model performance, suggesting parameter redundancy. Meanwhile, in Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), recent work has shown that updates concentrate on a sparse subset of parameters, which further lends evidence to this underlying redundancy. We study the simplest possible way to exploit this redundancy: training only a randomly selected subset of parameters at extreme sparsities. Empirically, we find that training just 1\% of parameters matches or exceeds full-parameter RLVR finetuning across 3 models and 2 task domains. Moreover, different random masks show minimal overlap (leq 0.005 Jaccard similarity) and yet all succeed, suggesting pretrained models contain many viable sparse subnetworks rather than one privileged set. We term this the Multiple Ticket Hypothesis. We explain this phenomenon through the implicit per-step KL constraint in RLVR, which restricts updates to a low-dimensional subspace, enabling arbitrary sparse masks to succeed.

Proportionality is an attractive fairness concept that has been applied to a range of problems including the facility location problem, a classic problem in social choice. In our work, we propose a concept called Strong Proportionality, which ensures that when there are two groups of agents at different locations, both groups incur the same total cost. We show that although Strong Proportionality is a well-motivated and basic axiom, there is no deterministic strategyproof mechanism satisfying the property. We then identify a randomized mechanism called Random Rank (which uniformly selects a number k between 1 to n and locates the facility at the k'th highest agent location) which satisfies Strong Proportionality in expectation. Our main theorem characterizes Random Rank as the unique mechanism that achieves universal truthfulness, universal anonymity, and Strong Proportionality in expectation among all randomized mechanisms. Finally, we show via the AverageOrRandomRank mechanism that even stronger ex-post fairness guarantees can be achieved by weakening universal truthfulness to strategyproofness in expectation.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Serial verification gates are a core reliability primitive in LLM harnesses: a candidate answer is returned only if k verifier calls all accept it. Under conditionally independent gates, the recent Odds Law (arXiv:2606.15712) shows that posterior log-odds grow linearly in k, so failure decays exponentially, and states that "a tight theory of partially correlated verifier cascades remains open." This note gives a minimal such theory. Modeling the per-instance false-accept rate on the generator's own errors as a latent variable αsim G (de Finetti), the exact cascade posterior is ell_k = ell_0 - ln m_k, with m_k the k-th moment of G. Then: (i) ell_k is concave in k for every non-degenerate G -- the Odds Law is its tangent at the first gate and an upper bound; (ii) for Beta(a,b) latents, failure decays polynomially, 1-r_k asymp k^{-b}, with correlation parameter ρ_v = 1/(a+b+1); (iii) a blind-spot atom of mass 1-π at α=1 caps the evidence extractable from any number of gates at -ln(1-π) nats, so reliability saturates below 1; (iv) letting the true-accept rate also vary (βsim H) yields a trichotomy -- gates eventually always help, plateau, or actively harm -- decided by the upper-tail exponents of G and H, with closed-form crossover k^dagger. The mechanism is survivorship: errors surviving gates are the high-α ones. The theory is measurable: R repeated verdicts per instance identify the first R moments of G, so two verdicts identify ρ_v; beta-binomial likelihood and NPMLE recover the reliability curve and the ill-posed ceiling. In synthetic tests, independence-based extrapolation underestimates failure by 20x at k=5 and ~3000x at k=10; the correlated fit at R=8 tracks held-out depths. The practical lever is decorrelation -- changing model family, modality, or evidence source -- not adding gates.

Conditional independence testing (CIT) is essential for reliable scientific discovery. It prevents spurious findings and enables controlled feature selection. Recent CIT methods have used machine learning (ML) models as surrogates of the underlying distribution. However, model-agnostic approaches require a train-test split, which reduces statistical power. We introduce Semi-knockoffs, a CIT method that can accommodate any pre-trained model, avoids this split, and provides valid p-values and false discovery rate (FDR) control for high-dimensional settings. Unlike methods that rely on the model-X assumption (known input distribution), Semi-knockoffs only require conditional expectations for continuous variables. This makes the procedure less restrictive and more practical for machine learning integration. To ensure validity when estimating these expectations, we present two new theoretical results of independent interest: (i) stability for regularized models trained with a null feature and (ii) the double-robustness property.

Causal discovery aims to uncover the underlying causal relationships given data generated from a system. The goal, however, is not merely to predict causal edges given data, but also to be able to interpret and explain either observed or hypothesized phenomena, such as a particularly large causal effect. We consider this task of conditional causal discovery and cast it as a Bayesian inference problem, in which we target the posterior over causal graphs and parameters conditional on an event such as a causal-effect constraint. Unfortunately, this poses a computational challenge: existing approaches to Bayesian causal discovery struggle when the event has small posterior mass. To address this, we adapt rare-event estimation techniques to perform inference the joint graph-parameter space. Our method gradually drives a particle population toward the constrained region while maintaining samples that approximate the conditional posterior. Empirical evaluation on synthetic graphs validates the accuracy of our approach at small and large scales, and we show in a case study on the Sachs protein dataset how our method can be used to aid scientific exploration by providing pathway-level summaries.

The task of mixture proportion estimation (MPE) is to estimate the weight of a component distribution in a mixture, given observations from both the component and mixture. Previous work on MPE adopts the irreducibility assumption, which ensures identifiablity of the mixture proportion. In this paper, we propose a more general sufficient condition that accommodates several settings of interest where irreducibility does not hold. We further present a resampling-based meta-algorithm that takes any existing MPE algorithm designed to work under irreducibility and adapts it to work under our more general condition. Our approach empirically exhibits improved estimation performance relative to baseline methods and to a recently proposed regrouping-based algorithm.

We discovered the underlying physics in Next-token Prediction (NTP). We identified the law of information conservation within NTP and proposed the First Law of Information Capacity (IC-1), demonstrating that the essence of intelligence emergence in auto-regressive models is fundamentally a process of information transfer. We also introduced Landauer's Principle into NTP, formulating the Second Law of Information Capacity (IC-2), which establishes the relationship between auto-regressive model training and energy consumption. Additionally, we presented several corollaries, which hold practical significance for production practices. Finally, we validated the compatibility and complementarity of our findings with existing theories.

We ask how much an autoregressive transformer retains of its prompt after generating t tokens. Consider two different prompts followed by the same continuation text, so that any difference in their hidden states comes from the prompt alone, and we find that the distance between their hidden states decays approximately as a power law t^{-α}, where α=1 is the rate at which a fixed prompt's share of uniform attention shrinks and smaller values mean longer memory. Trained models forget fast (αapprox0.55--0.7), untrained ones slowly (αapprox0.2--0.5). We prove that this offset is Obig(P(log t)^{L-1}/tbig) for a prompt of length P and depth L. The bound holds for finite-depth pre-LN softmax transformers with bounded attention logits, under one additional condition: the pre-norm activations stay away from zero. The mechanism is geometric: the prompt's direct influence is diluted as the context grows, and relay --- continuation tokens passing on what earlier tokens read from the prompt --- can only add logarithmic factors. This is what we call the conditional no-hair theorem: given the text generated so far, the prompt's influence on the next token vanishes as t grows, so any property of the prompt that survives, such as its language, must be carried by the text itself. An exactly solvable linear relay model shows that the bound cannot be improved and reproduces the rise of the local exponent towards 1 seen in untrained networks. Cancelling the dilution with a logit bias stops the decay early in training and reverses it after, so dilution is necessary for the forgetting we measure; untrained networks and the solvable model show it is also sufficient.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

We study single-error detection and correction for analog codes over R. The key performance measures are the parameters Γ_1(C) and Γ_2(C), which quantify, respectively, the minimum separation required between large outlying errors that must be detected or located and the magnitude of tolerable perturbations. First, we prove that every real linear [n,k] code C satisfies \[ Γ_1(C)\ge 2\left\lceiln{n-k}\right\rceil. \] Moreover, when k=n-2, we prove that every real linear [n,n-2] code C satisfies \[ Γ_2(C)\ge 1{\sin^2(π/2n)}. \] Together, these two lower bounds settle all four open problems of Roth concerning the optimality of single-error-detecting and single-error-correcting analog codes. The proof of the first bound is based on a double-induction argument, while the proof of the second combines a zonotope-based geometric characterization of Γ_2(C) with a cyclic sine-product inequality. In addition, we construct analog codes with higher fixed redundancy and show that, for every fixed rge 2, there exists a class of linear [n,ge n-r] codes over R such that \[ Γ_2(C)\le O\left(n^{1+1{r-1}}\right). \] This gives a new upper bound in the fixed-redundancy regime, which was not covered by previously known constructions.

Task robust adaptation is a long-standing pursuit in sequential decision-making. Some risk-averse strategies, e.g., the conditional value-at-risk principle, are incorporated in domain randomization or meta reinforcement learning to prioritize difficult tasks in optimization, which demand costly intensive evaluations. The efficiency issue prompts the development of robust active task sampling to train adaptive policies, where risk-predictive models are used to surrogate policy evaluation. This work characterizes the optimization pipeline of robust active task sampling as a Markov decision process, posits theoretical and practical insights, and constitutes robustness concepts in risk-averse scenarios. Importantly, we propose an easy-to-implement method, referred to as Posterior and Diversity Synergized Task Sampling (PDTS), to accommodate fast and robust sequential decision-making. Extensive experiments show that PDTS unlocks the potential of robust active task sampling, significantly improves the zero-shot and few-shot adaptation robustness in challenging tasks, and even accelerates the learning process under certain scenarios. Our project website is at https://thu-rllab.github.io/PDTS_project_page.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

We study a variant of the equidistribution of mass conjecture on the sphere posed by Böcherer, Sarnak, and Schulze-Pillot: quantum unique ergodicity in shrinking sets. Conditionally on the generalized Lindelöf hypothesis, we show that quantum unique ergodicity holds on every shrinking spherical cap whose radius is considerably larger than the Planck scale, and that it holds on almost every shrinking spherical cap whose radius is larger than the Planck scale. Additionally, conditionally on GLH, we provide explicit upper bounds for the 1-Wasserstein distance and the spherical cap discrepancy between the involved measures.

In this work, we present a variety of novel information-theoretic generalization bounds for learning algorithms, from the supersample setting of Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020)-the setting of the "conditional mutual information" framework. Our development exploits projecting the loss pair (obtained from a training instance and a testing instance) down to a single number and correlating loss values with a Rademacher sequence (and its shifted variants). The presented bounds include square-root bounds, fast-rate bounds, including those based on variance and sharpness, and bounds for interpolating algorithms etc. We show theoretically or empirically that these bounds are tighter than all information-theoretic bounds known to date on the same supersample setting.

Privacy amplification exploits randomness in data selection to provide tighter differential privacy (DP) guarantees. This analysis is key to DP-SGD's success in machine learning, but, is not readily applicable to the newer state-of-the-art algorithms. This is because these algorithms, known as DP-FTRL, use the matrix mechanism to add correlated noise instead of independent noise as in DP-SGD. In this paper, we propose "MMCC", the first algorithm to analyze privacy amplification via sampling for any generic matrix mechanism. MMCC is nearly tight in that it approaches a lower bound as epsilonto0. To analyze correlated outputs in MMCC, we prove that they can be analyzed as if they were independent, by conditioning them on prior outputs. Our "conditional composition theorem" has broad utility: we use it to show that the noise added to binary-tree-DP-FTRL can asymptotically match the noise added to DP-SGD with amplification. Our amplification algorithm also has practical empirical utility: we show it leads to significant improvement in the privacy-utility trade-offs for DP-FTRL algorithms on standard benchmarks.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

The DNA storage channel is considered, in which the M Deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) molecules comprising each codeword are stored without order, sampled N times with replacement, and then sequenced over a discrete memoryless channel. For a constant coverage depth M/N and molecule length scaling Θ(log M), lower (achievability) and upper (converse) bounds on the capacity of the channel, as well as a lower (achievability) bound on the reliability function of the channel are provided. Both the lower and upper bounds on the capacity generalize a bound which was previously known to hold only for the binary symmetric sequencing channel, and only under certain restrictions on the molecule length scaling and the crossover probability parameters. When specified to binary symmetric sequencing channel, these restrictions are completely removed for the lower bound and are significantly relaxed for the upper bound in the high-noise regime. The lower bound on the reliability function is achieved under a universal decoder, and reveals that the dominant error event is that of outage -- the event in which the capacity of the channel induced by the DNA molecule sampling operation does not support the target rate.

We develop a framework, in the style of Adler, for interpreting the notion of "witnessing" that has appeared (usually as a variant of Kim's Lemma) in different areas of neostability theory as a binary relation between abstract independence relations. This involves extending the relativisations of Kim-independence and Conant-independence due to Mutchnik to arbitrary independence relations. After developing this framework, we show that several results from simplicity, NTP_2, NSOP_1, and beyond follow as instances of general theorems for abstract independence relations. In particular, we prove the equivalence between witnessing and symmetry and the implications from this notion to chain local character and the weak independence theorem, and recover some partial converses. Finally, we use this framework to prove a dichotomy between NSOP_1 and Kruckman and Ramsey's BTP that applies to most known NSOP_4 examples in the literature.

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

This paper explores the relationship between the condition number of a neural network's weight tensor and the extent of information encoded by the associated processing unit, viewed through the lens of information theory. It argues that a high condition number, though not sufficient for effective knowledge encoding, may indicate that the unit has learned to selectively amplify and compress information. This intuition is formalized for linear units with Gaussian inputs, linking the condition number and the transformation's log-volume scaling factor to the characteristics of the output entropy and the geometric properties of the learned transformation. The analysis demonstrates that for a fixed weight norm, a concentrated distribution of singular values (high condition number) corresponds to reduced overall information transfer, indicating a specialized and efficient encoding strategy. Furthermore, the linear stage entropy bound provides an upper limit on post-activation information for contractive, element-wise nonlinearities, supporting the condition number as a scale-invariant proxy for encoding capacity in practical neural networks. An empirical case study applies these principles to guide selective fine-tuning of Large Language Models for both a new task and a new input modality. The experiments show that the proposed method, named KappaTune, effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Unlike many existing catastrophic forgetting mitigation methods that rely on access to pre-training statistics, which are often unavailable, this selective fine-tuning approach offers a way to bypass this common requirement.

Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture (MMLA) separates slow base parameters theta, a bounded numerical policy carrier Phi, and a bounded authoritative memory M. Predictive Dual-State Adaptation (PDSA) lets feedback update Phi while one problem remains active and lets a trusted lifecycle atomically commit one typed row or exact NULL. Later reasoning may read both states, but their writers, resets, rollback domains, and ledgers remain distinct. Realized futures supervise values only during training; deployment is causal and future-blind. We give conditional theory and falsifiable contracts for reasoning-time updates, completed-segment consolidation, predictive admission, authoritative memory, and dual-state attribution. Assumptions, counterexamples, capacity and cost ledgers, recovery duties, and identifying experiments are explicit; these are not implementation guarantees. Controlled studies show exact lifecycle execution on 300/300 held-out records for each of three seeds, calibrated retrieval gains over frozen-hidden dense and BM25 baselines, and exact typed anchor-filler transport on 240/240 held-out records per seed. These validate restricted components, not natural-language memory management or complete PDSA. Post-training studies retain positive and negative evidence. Later protocols obtain restricted readout progress, but a nine-trajectory comparison finds that matched latent readout, a full-width bridge, and bridge plus frozen text-teacher alignment all fail continuous-event qualification across both task families. A separately adapted text reference and restoration checks pass. At the September 13, 2026 evidence cutoff, no strict policy-only reasoning-time-training effect, predictive-admission oracle margin, learned future-blind admission policy, or policy-by-memory factorial advantage is established.

This monograph develops a unified account of training and inference in Power Law Decoder Representation language models (PLDR-LLMs). Exact finite work identities decompose changes in the absolute energy of the row-centered learned map into parameter contributions, signed interactions, and numerical observation defects. Positive affine blocking retains restarts at the row-constant face, while the augmented AdamW state supplies the complete dynamical description. Predictive renormalization acts on the complete conditional training law for a single pass over distinct corpus target blocks, retaining optimizer memory, remaining data, schedule, and numerical policy. Autonomous reductions require closure; approximate reductions carry successor and emission errors. Finite-population covariance, matched physical clocks, matrix fluxes, and signed temporal energy connect row dynamics to model-wide observations. Absolute row collapse, relative row concentration, operator stabilization, and predictive accuracy are distinguished. Experiments reveal observer and optimizer dependence, reject the tested autonomous row-state candidates, and support finite conditional prediction and state-specific operator reduction. Independent single-pass families exhibit moving finite fluctuation regions without establishing a thermodynamic critical class. Conditional symmetry, head limits, covariance flows, and readout error budgets specify assumptions needed to transfer scaling laws to inference. The theory separates exact identities, conditional dynamical claims, and finite empirical findings, with proofs, selected formal checks, and compact numerical evidence.

Conditional mutual information (CMI) probes spatial non-Markovianity and plays a central role in a recently developed framework for defining mixed-state phases based on local reversibility. This framework sharply distinguishes exponentially decaying from algebraically decaying CMI, since the latter obstructs equivalence to a state with finite Markov length. Here we show that states that flow to the same renormalization-group (RG) fixed point can nevertheless exhibit qualitatively different CMI. Starting from a critical Gibbs state of a finite-range local classical Hamiltonian, whose CMI vanishes beyond the interaction range, we show that an RG-irrelevant perturbation that breaks detailed balance generically generates algebraically decaying CMI. Crucially, these power-law tails are cutoff-suppressed: although they lead to an infinite Markov length at every fixed lattice cutoff, they vanish as a positive power of the cutoff in the continuum limit. We construct solvable models that exhibit this phenomenon and predict that the Ising-symmetric critical point of Toom's cellular automata generically exhibits such behavior. We also find analogous cutoff-suppressed CMI in the high-temperature paramagnetic phase of the long-range Ising paramagnet, in contrast with the genuine power-law CMI at the finite-temperature critical point in this same model that survives the continuum limit. We also derive a general result that in one spatial dimension, CMI decays faster than the inverse square of the buffer length if and only if the long-distance physics is Markovian.

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the uncertainty of model outputs has received relatively little attention. We adapt the popular Shapley value framework to explain various types of predictive uncertainty, quantifying each feature's contribution to the conditional entropy of individual model outputs. We consider games with modified characteristic functions and find deep connections between the resulting Shapley values and fundamental quantities from information theory and conditional independence testing. We outline inference procedures for finite sample error rate control with provable guarantees, and implement efficient algorithms that perform well in a range of experiments on real and simulated data. Our method has applications to covariate shift detection, active learning, feature selection, and active feature-value acquisition.

This definitive research memoria presents a comprehensive, mathematically verified paradigm for neural communication with Bitcoin mining Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), integrating five complementary frameworks: thermodynamic reservoir computing, hierarchical number system theory, algorithmic analysis, network latency optimization, and machine-checked mathematical formalization. We establish that obsolete cryptocurrency mining hardware exhibits emergent computational properties enabling bidirectional information exchange between AI systems and silicon substrates. The research program demonstrates: (1) reservoir computing with NARMA-10 Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.8661; (2) the Thermodynamic Probability Filter (TPF) achieving 92.19% theoretical energy reduction; (3) the Virtual Block Manager achieving +25% effective hashrate; and (4) hardware universality across multiple ASIC families including Antminer S9, Lucky Miner LV06, and Goldshell LB-Box. A significant contribution is the machine-checked mathematical formalization using Lean 4 and Mathlib, providing unambiguous definitions, machine-verified theorems, and reviewer-proof claims. Key theorems proven include: independence implies zero leakage, predictor beats baseline implies non-independence (the logical core of TPF), energy savings theoretical maximum, and Physical Unclonable Function (PUF) distinguishability witnesses. Vladimir Veselov's hierarchical number system theory explains why early-round information contains predictive power. This work establishes a new paradigm: treating ASICs not as passive computational substrates but as active conversational partners whose thermodynamic state encodes exploitable computational information.

Mixture-of-Experts architectures have revolutionized scaling, yet the underlying logic of their routing remains a black box. In this paper, we uncover a fundamental governing principle: MoE routing is not merely selection, but a manifestation of Huffman Coding. We introduce the Frequency-Diversity Law, revealing that state-of-the-art models, such as Phi-3.5-MoE and Gemma-4-27B-A4B, spontaneously act as information-theoretic engines. These models allocate sparse expert resources for common tokens while invoking high-diversity expert committees for rare, complex tasks found in chain-of-thought trajectories. However, we identify a critical redundancy trap in Qwen3.5-35B-A3B: when effective sparsity (k/E_eff) is sufficiently low, load-balancing inadvertently imposes functional redundancy, masking the underlying Huffman efficiency signal. To bridge this gap, we propose Subset Difference Pruning, a surgical strategy to eliminate functional duplicates. We demonstrate that pruning does not degrade reasoning; instead, it unleashes the model's latent Huffman efficiency, forcing the logic to collapse into streamlined, high-density paths. Our findings suggest that the next generation of MoEs should move beyond forced load-balancing toward Minimum Description Length (MDL) optimality, assigning shorter expert-routing codes to high-frequency information and longer, more diverse codes to low-frequency information, thereby transforming routing from a heuristic into a principled compression engine.

This monograph attempts a theory of every 'thing' that can be distinguished from other things in a statistical sense. The ensuing statistical independencies, mediated by Markov blankets, speak to a recursive composition of ensembles (of things) at increasingly higher spatiotemporal scales. This decomposition provides a description of small things; e.g., quantum mechanics - via the Schrodinger equation, ensembles of small things - via statistical mechanics and related fluctuation theorems, through to big things - via classical mechanics. These descriptions are complemented with a Bayesian mechanics for autonomous or active things. Although this work provides a formulation of every thing, its main contribution is to examine the implications of Markov blankets for self-organisation to nonequilibrium steady-state. In brief, we recover an information geometry and accompanying free energy principle that allows one to interpret the internal states of something as representing or making inferences about its external states. The ensuing Bayesian mechanics is compatible with quantum, statistical and classical mechanics and may offer a formal description of lifelike particles.

Reinforcement learning algorithms are commonly analyzed (and designed) under the Markov assumption. This is unrealistic, as most environments encountered in practice are either partially observable, or require function approximation that restricts the agent to access non-Markovian state features. We consider the problem of learning an optimal reactive policy in a finite environment with deterministic observations (or equivalently, hard state aggregation). We introduce a new algorithm, Committed Q-learning, and prove almost-sure convergence to the optimal reactive policy under an intuitive assumption we call rewire-robustness. This assumption is strictly weaker than the q_star-realizability condition used in prior work. Our algorithm is a variant of classical Q-learning in which the behavior policy commits to a single action upon entering a feature, and only resamples actions when the observed feature changes. A crucial part of our analysis is the introduction of quasi-Markov environments.

Motor control is a fundamental process that underlies all voluntary behavioral responses. Several different theories based on different principles (task dynamics, equilibrium-point theory, passive-motion paradigm, active inference, optimal control) account for specific aspects of how actions are produced, but fail to provide a unified view on this problem. Here we propose a concise theory of motor control based on three principles: optimal feedback control, control with a receding time horizon, and task representation by a series of via-points updated at fixed frequency. By construction, the theory provides a suitable solution to the degrees-of-freedom problem, i.e. trajectory formation in the presence of redundancies and noise. We show through computer simulations that the theory also explains the production of discrete, continuous, rhythmic and temporally-constrained movements, and their parametric and statistical properties (scaling laws, power laws, speed/accuracy tradeoffs). The theory has no free parameters and only limited variations in its implementation details and in the nature of noise are necessary to guarantee its explanatory power.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Using a well-ordering on the reals, one can prove there exists a partition of the three-dimensional Euclidean space into unit circles (PUC). We show that the converse does not hold: there exist models of ZF without a well-ordering of the reals in which such partition exists. Specifically, we prove that the Cohen model has a PUC and construct a model satisfying DC where this is also the case. Furthermore, we present a general framework for constructing similar models for other paradoxical sets, under some conditions of extendability and amalgamation.

This paper introduces a novel type theory and logic for probabilistic reasoning. Its logic is quantitative, with fuzzy predicates. It includes normalisation and conditioning of states. This conditioning uses a key aspect that distinguishes our probabilistic type theory from quantum type theory, namely the bijective correspondence between predicates and side-effect free actions (called instrument, or assert, maps). The paper shows how suitable computation rules can be derived from this predicate-action correspondence, and uses these rules for calculating conditional probabilities in two well-known examples of Bayesian reasoning in (graphical) models. Our type theory may thus form the basis for a mechanisation of Bayesian inference.

To build an artificial neural network like the biological intelligence system, recent works have unified numerous tasks into a generalist model, which can process various tasks with shared parameters and do not have any task-specific modules. While generalist models achieve promising results on various benchmarks, they have performance degradation on some tasks compared with task-specialized models. In this work, we find that interference among different tasks and modalities is the main factor to this phenomenon. To mitigate such interference, we introduce the Conditional Mixture-of-Experts (Conditional MoEs) to generalist models. Routing strategies under different levels of conditions are proposed to take both the training/inference cost and generalization ability into account. By incorporating the proposed Conditional MoEs, the recently proposed generalist model Uni-Perceiver can effectively mitigate the interference across tasks and modalities, and achieves state-of-the-art results on a series of downstream tasks via prompt tuning on 1% of downstream data. Moreover, the introduction of Conditional MoEs still holds the generalization ability of generalist models to conduct zero-shot inference on new tasks, e.g., video-text retrieval and video caption. Code and pre-trained generalist models shall be released.

Most learning algorithms with formal regret guarantees assume that no mistake is irreparable and essentially rely on trying all possible behaviors. This approach is problematic when some mistakes are catastrophic, i.e., irreparable. We propose an online learning problem where the goal is to minimize the chance of catastrophe. Specifically, we assume that the payoff in each round represents the chance of avoiding catastrophe that round and aim to maximize the product of payoffs (the overall chance of avoiding catastrophe) while allowing a limited number of queries to a mentor. We first show that in general, any algorithm either constantly queries the mentor or is nearly guaranteed to cause catastrophe. However, in settings where the mentor policy class is learnable in the standard online learning model, we provide an algorithm whose regret and rate of querying the mentor both approach 0 as the time horizon grows. Conceptually, if a policy class is learnable in the absence of catastrophic risk, it is learnable in the presence of catastrophic risk if the agent can ask for help.

State-of-the-art neurosymbolic learning systems use probabilistic reasoning to guide neural networks towards predictions that conform to logical constraints over symbols. Many such systems assume that the probabilities of the considered symbols are conditionally independent given the input to simplify learning and reasoning. We study and criticise this assumption, highlighting how it can hinder optimisation and prevent uncertainty quantification. We prove that loss functions bias conditionally independent neural networks to become overconfident in their predictions. As a result, they are unable to represent uncertainty over multiple valid options. Furthermore, we prove that these loss functions are difficult to optimise: they are non-convex, and their minima are usually highly disconnected. Our theoretical analysis gives the foundation for replacing the conditional independence assumption and designing more expressive neurosymbolic probabilistic models.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

A major challenge in structured prediction is to represent the interdependencies within output structures. When outputs are structured as sequences, linear-chain conditional random fields (CRFs) are a widely used model class which can learn local dependencies in the output. However, the CRF's Markov assumption makes it impossible for CRFs to represent distributions with nonlocal dependencies, and standard CRFs are unable to respect nonlocal constraints of the data (such as global arity constraints on output labels). We present a generalization of CRFs that can enforce a broad class of constraints, including nonlocal ones, by specifying the space of possible output structures as a regular language L. The resulting regular-constrained CRF (RegCCRF) has the same formal properties as a standard CRF, but assigns zero probability to all label sequences not in L. Notably, RegCCRFs can incorporate their constraints during training, while related models only enforce constraints during decoding. We prove that constrained training is never worse than constrained decoding, and show empirically that it can be substantially better in practice. Additionally, we demonstrate a practical benefit on downstream tasks by incorporating a RegCCRF into a deep neural model for semantic role labeling, exceeding state-of-the-art results on a standard dataset.

Entropy and its various generalizations are important in many fields, including mathematical statistics, communication theory, physics and computer science, for characterizing the amount of information associated with a probability distribution. In this paper we propose goodness-of-fit statistics for the multivariate Student and multivariate Pearson type II distributions, based on the maximum entropy principle and a class of estimators for Renyi entropy based on nearest neighbour distances. We prove the L2-consistency of these statistics using results on the subadditivity of Euclidean functionals on nearest neighbour graphs, and investigate their rate of convergence and asymptotic distribution using Monte Carlo methods.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose elements depend not only on the target but also on unknown factors shared across the set. Optimal inference therefore requires treating the set jointly, which in turn requires training the estimator at the deployment set size -- a regime where memory and compute quickly become prohibitive. We introduce a simple, theoretically grounded strategy that decouples representation learning from posterior modeling. Our method trains a mean-pool Deep Set on sets of size at most two, producing an encoder that generalizes to arbitrary set sizes. The inference head is then finetuned on pre-aggregated embeddings, making training cost essentially independent of the deployment set size N. Across scalar, image, multi-view 3D, molecular, and high-dimensional conditional generation benchmarks with N in the thousands, our approach matches or outperforms standard baselines at a fraction of the compute.

Markov categories are a recent category-theoretic approach to the foundations of probability and statistics. Here we develop this approach further by treating infinite products and the Kolmogorov extension theorem. This is relevant for all aspects of probability theory in which infinitely many random variables appear at a time. These infinite tensor products bigotimes_{i in J} X_i come in two versions: a weaker but more general one for families of objects (X_i)_{i in J} in semicartesian symmetric monoidal categories, and a stronger but more specific one for families of objects in Markov categories. As a first application, we state and prove versions of the zero-one laws of Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage for Markov categories. This gives general versions of these results which can be instantiated not only in measure-theoretic probability, where they specialize to the standard ones in the setting of standard Borel spaces, but also in other contexts.

In this paper I apply newly-proposed information-theoretic principles to thermodynamic work extraction. I show that if it is possible to extract work deterministically from a physical system prepared in any one of a set of states, then those states must be distinguishable from one another. This result is formulated independently of scale and of particular dynamical laws; it also provides a novel connection between thermodynamics and information theory, established via the law of conservation of energy (rather than the second law of thermodynamics). Albeit compatible with these conclusions, existing thermodynamics approaches cannot provide a result of such generality, because they are scale-dependent (relying on ensembles or coarse-graining) or tied to particular dynamical laws. This paper thus provides a broader foundation for thermodynamics, with implications for the theory of von Neumann's universal constructor

Reasoning models have demonstrated impressive performance in self-reflection and chain-of-thought reasoning. However, they often produce excessively long outputs, leading to prohibitively large key-value (KV) caches during inference. While chain-of-thought inference significantly improves performance on complex reasoning tasks, it can also lead to reasoning failures when deployed with existing KV cache compression approaches. To address this, we propose Redundancy-aware KV Cache Compression for Reasoning models (R-KV), a novel method specifically targeting redundant tokens in reasoning models. Our method preserves nearly 100% of the full KV cache performance using only 10% of the KV cache, substantially outperforming existing KV cache baselines, which reach only 60% of the performance. Remarkably, R-KV even achieves 105% of full KV cache performance with 16% of the KV cache. This KV-cache reduction also leads to a 90% memory saving and a 6.6X throughput over standard chain-of-thought reasoning inference. Experimental results show that R-KV consistently outperforms existing KV cache compression baselines across two mathematical reasoning datasets.

Recent breakthroughs in Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have demonstrated that extensive Chain-of-Thought (CoT) generation is critical for enabling intricate cognitive behaviors, such as self-verification and backtracking, to solve complex tasks. However, this capability often leads to ``overthinking'', where models generate redundant reasoning paths that inflate computational costs without improving accuracy. While Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) on reasoning traces is a standard paradigm for the 'cold start' phase, applying existing compression techniques to these traces often compromises logical coherence or incurs prohibitive sampling costs. In this paper, we introduce ConMax (Confidence-Maximizing Compression), a novel reinforcement learning framework designed to automatically compress reasoning traces while preserving essential reasoning patterns. ConMax formulates compression as a reward-driven optimization problem, training a policy to prune redundancy by maximizing a weighted combination of answer confidence for predictive fidelity and thinking confidence for reasoning validity through a frozen auxiliary LRM. Extensive experiments across five reasoning datasets demonstrate that ConMax achieves a superior efficiency-performance trade-off. Specifically, it reduces inference length by 43% over strong baselines at the cost of a mere 0.7% dip in accuracy, proving its effectiveness in generating high-quality, efficient training data for LRMs.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

The free energy principle, and its corollary active inference, constitute a bio-inspired theory that assumes biological agents act to remain in a restricted set of preferred states of the world, i.e., they minimize their free energy. Under this principle, biological agents learn a generative model of the world and plan actions in the future that will maintain the agent in an homeostatic state that satisfies its preferences. This framework lends itself to being realized in silico, as it comprehends important aspects that make it computationally affordable, such as variational inference and amortized planning. In this work, we investigate the tool of deep learning to design and realize artificial agents based on active inference, presenting a deep-learning oriented presentation of the free energy principle, surveying works that are relevant in both machine learning and active inference areas, and discussing the design choices that are involved in the implementation process. This manuscript probes newer perspectives for the active inference framework, grounding its theoretical aspects into more pragmatic affairs, offering a practical guide to active inference newcomers and a starting point for deep learning practitioners that would like to investigate implementations of the free energy principle.

Red-team evaluations of AI models support some claims and not others, and the boundary between the two is calculable rather than merely a matter of judgment. We define the evidential ceiling of an evaluation as the largest factor by which one result can move belief under a fixed testing budget, derive it in closed form for the benchmark null result, and use it to locate that boundary exactly. We find that above a calculable harm rate, a benchmark of modest size certifies a category to a stated evidentiary standard, and a clean sheet is then the stronger of the two possible observations, outweighing a single reproduced failure. Below that rate, no passive benchmark of feasible size provides the specified evidence of safety under the fixed scoring rule and approximately independent trial structure. The crossing between the two regimes has a closed form. The bound is not specific to benchmarks: written in terms of a procedure's hypothesis conditioned elicitation rates, it covers adaptive and automated red teaming as well, and shows that discrimination between the hypotheses rather than attack success is what determines evidential worth. Auditing eight evaluation suites against the boundary, we find that current benchmarks are adequate for high-frequency harm categories and several orders of magnitude short for rare, catastrophic ones. Safety benchmarks are not uninformative. They are informative about a specific and computable set of propositions, and the discipline they need is to state which.

The aim of Reverse Mathematics(RM for short)is to find the minimal axioms needed to prove a given theorem of ordinary mathematics. These minimal axioms are almost always equivalent to the theorem, working over the base theory of RM, a weak system of computable mathematics. The Big Five phenomenon of RM is the observation that a large number of theorems from ordinary mathematics are either provable in the base theory or equivalent to one of only four systems; these five systems together are called the 'Big Five'. The aim of this paper is to greatly extend the Big Five phenomenon as follows: there are two supposedly fundamentally different approaches to RM where the main difference is whether the language is restricted to second-order objects or if one allows third-order objects. In this paper, we unite these two strands of RM by establishing numerous equivalences involving the second-order Big Five systems on one hand, and well-known third-order theorems from analysis about (possibly) discontinuous functions on the other hand. We both study relatively tame notions, like cadlag or Baire 1, and potentially wild ones, like quasi-continuity. We also show that slight generalisations and variations of the aforementioned third-order theorems fall far outside of the Big Five.

This paper provides an empirical implementation of the creative quality metric proposed in Calibrated Surprise (Zou & Xu, 2026a). The question this paper addresses is: does this mathematical claim hold at the engineering level? To make the answer as general as possible, we deliberately choose the strictest engineering conditions: low data cost and a small base model. Training data comes from approximately 100 expert chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations produced by the BC Protocol (Zou & Xu, 2026b). We also identify a data bias: most publicly available alignment datasets are skewed toward craft-related knowledge, while audience modeling and reality-logic coverage are systematically weak. We use the term Creative Quality Alignment (CQA) to describe this class of engineering methods. We also offer a supporting theoretical observation: in an LLM with a single conditional distribution architecture, calibrating the appreciation side automatically transfers to the generation side via architectural duality. This is the structural reason why ~100 CoT examples are sufficient -- not a purely empirical observation like LIMA (Zhou et al., 2023).

Diffusion models, a powerful and universal generative AI technology, have achieved tremendous success in computer vision, audio, reinforcement learning, and computational biology. In these applications, diffusion models provide flexible high-dimensional data modeling, and act as a sampler for generating new samples under active guidance towards task-desired properties. Despite the significant empirical success, theory of diffusion models is very limited, potentially slowing down principled methodological innovations for further harnessing and improving diffusion models. In this paper, we review emerging applications of diffusion models, understanding their sample generation under various controls. Next, we overview the existing theories of diffusion models, covering their statistical properties and sampling capabilities. We adopt a progressive routine, beginning with unconditional diffusion models and connecting to conditional counterparts. Further, we review a new avenue in high-dimensional structured optimization through conditional diffusion models, where searching for solutions is reformulated as a conditional sampling problem and solved by diffusion models. Lastly, we discuss future directions about diffusion models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a well-rounded theoretical exposure for stimulating forward-looking theories and methods of diffusion models.

As the demand for comprehensive evaluations of diverse model capabilities steadily increases, benchmark suites have correspondingly grown significantly in scale. Despite notable advances in redundancy reduction and subset-level performance prediction, a systematic framework that effectively integrates these methods to ensure both prediction accuracy and ranking consistency is still largely elusive. In this paper, we first perform a sample-level analysis of benchmark redundancy and identify several highly similar samples that can be eliminated. Besides, we frame benchmark compression as an optimization problem with the aim of score reconstruction. Building on these, we then propose EssenceBench, a coarse-to-fine framework utilizing an iterative Genetic Algorithm (GA), which takes the advantages of fitness-based subset search and attribution-based sample search. Compared to previous methods, our approach yields superior compression results with lower reconstruction error and markedly higher efficiency. In particular, on the HellaSwag benchmark (10K samples), our method preserves the ranking of all models shifting within 5% using 25x fewer samples, and achieves 95% ranking preservation shifting within 5% using only 200x fewer samples.

Most work interpreting reasoning models studies only a single chain-of-thought (CoT), yet these models define distributions over many possible CoTs. We argue that studying a single sample is inadequate for understanding causal influence and the underlying computation. Though fully specifying this distribution is intractable, it can be understood by sampling. We present case studies using resampling to investigate model decisions. First, when a model states a reason for its action, does that reason actually cause the action? In "agentic misalignment" scenarios, we resample specific sentences to measure their downstream effects. Self-preservation sentences have small causal impact, suggesting they do not meaningfully drive blackmail. Second, are artificial edits to CoT sufficient for steering reasoning? These are common in literature, yet take the model off-policy. Resampling and selecting a completion with the desired property is a principled on-policy alternative. We find off-policy interventions yield small and unstable effects compared to resampling in decision-making tasks. Third, how do we understand the effect of removing a reasoning step when the model may repeat it post-edit? We introduce a resilience metric that repeatedly resamples to prevent similar content from reappearing downstream. Critical planning statements resist removal but have large effects when eliminated. Fourth, since CoT is sometimes "unfaithful", can our methods teach us anything in these settings? Adapting causal mediation analysis, we find that hints that have a causal effect on the output without being explicitly mentioned exert a subtle and cumulative influence on the CoT that persists even if the hint is removed. Overall, studying distributions via resampling enables reliable causal analysis, clearer narratives of model reasoning, and principled CoT interventions.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities on tasks with clear correctness criteria, such as mathematical reasoning tasks. Several training metrics, such as entropy or response length, have been observed to correlate with different reasoning behaviors in reinforcement learning. Prior approaches incorporate such priors through reward or advantage shaping, which often relies on hand-crafted penalties and preferences (e.g., higher-is-better or lower-is-better). However, without careful hyperparameter tuning, these directional priors can be overly biased and may lead to failure. To this end, we introduce Conditional advANtage estimatiON (CANON), amplifying the impact of the target metric without presuming its direction. Specifically, CANON regroups the sampled responses into two groups based on the higher or lower value of a target metric, measures which metric trend contributes to better performance through inter-group comparison, and identifies the better response within the same group. In summary, CANON based on entropy consistently outperforms prior methods across three LLMs on both math reasoning and high-complexity logic tasks. When applied to response length, CANON further improves token efficiency, yielding a more favorable Pareto frontier in the performance-cost trade-off.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

We present a neural framework for learning conditional optimal transport (OT) maps between probability distributions. Our approach introduces a conditioning mechanism capable of processing both categorical and continuous conditioning variables simultaneously. At the core of our method lies a hypernetwork that generates transport layer parameters based on these inputs, creating adaptive mappings that outperform simpler conditioning methods. Comprehensive ablation studies demonstrate the superior performance of our method over baseline configurations. Furthermore, we showcase an application to global sensitivity analysis, offering high performance in computing OT-based sensitivity indices. This work advances the state-of-the-art in conditional optimal transport, enabling broader application of optimal transport principles to complex, high-dimensional domains such as generative modeling and black-box model explainability.

We consider the obnoxious facility location problem (in which agents prefer the facility location to be far from them) and propose a hierarchy of distance-based proportional fairness concepts for the problem. These fairness axioms ensure that groups of agents at the same location are guaranteed to be a distance from the facility proportional to their group size. We consider deterministic and randomized mechanisms, and compute tight bounds on the price of proportional fairness. In the deterministic setting, we show that our proportional fairness axioms are incompatible with strategyproofness, and prove asymptotically tight epsilon-price of anarchy and stability bounds for proportionally fair welfare-optimal mechanisms. In the randomized setting, we identify proportionally fair and strategyproof mechanisms that give an expected welfare within a constant factor of the optimal welfare. Finally, we prove existence results for two extensions to our model.

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states that a market is free of arbitrage exactly when it admits an equivalent martingale measure. We formalize it in Lean 4 over Mathlib in three settings: a finite-state market over a finite horizon (Harrison-Pliska), a one-period market on an arbitrary probability space with a single scalar return (Follmer-Schied), and a one-period market with finitely many assets. The finite case is the geometry of a separating hyperplane; the scalar one-period case is an elementary change of measure. In the d-asset case the equivalent martingale measure is constructed explicitly, as the minimiser of the smooth convex potential E[log(1+e^{langleθ,Yrangle})]: absence of arbitrage is precisely coercivity of the potential, its first-order condition is the martingale property, and the minimiser's logistic weight is the density of the measure. The construction uses no Hahn-Banach theorem, no L^0-closedness argument, no measurable selection, and no non-redundancy hypothesis. To our knowledge this is the first machine-checked Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing in any proof assistant. The boundary is explicit: the general multi-period Dalang-Morton-Willinger theorem lies outside the development. Every theorem is sorry-free, each headline result's axioms are pinned to Mathlib's classical defaults by a build-enforced gate, and the whole is reproducible from a pinned toolchain.

The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of a Gaussian location mixture maximizes the likelihood over the infinite-dimensional space of mixing distributions. The maximizing mixing distribution can be nonunique, and the classical bound on its number of atoms grows linearly with the sample size n. We show that a vanishingly small random perturbation of the likelihood yields exact polylogarithmic sparsity. The resulting randomly reweighted NPMLE maximizes a weighted likelihood whose independent weights, taken to be Gamma in our analysis, concentrate around one as n grows. With high probability, it is unique, has O{(log n/loglog n)^d+log n} atoms in dimension d, nearly maximizes the ordinary likelihood, and estimates the mixture density at a Hellinger rate that is parametric up to logarithmic factors. This sparsity holds for the estimator itself, not for an approximation of it, and requires no support penalty. The proof rests on an effective-dimension principle for positive kernel mixtures: low-dimensional variation of the fitted values controls the support of every extreme point of the set of maximizers. Numerical illustrations verify that the reweighted NPMLE has Hellinger risk and support size comparable to those of the ordinary NPMLE.

Does semantic communication require a semantic information theory parallel to Shannon's information theory, or can Shannon's work be generalized for semantic communication? This paper advocates for the latter and introduces a semantic generalization of Shannon's information theory (G theory for short). The core idea is to replace the distortion constraint with the semantic constraint, achieved by utilizing a set of truth functions as a semantic channel. These truth functions enable the expressions of semantic distortion, semantic information measures, and semantic information loss. Notably, the maximum semantic information criterion is equivalent to the maximum likelihood criterion and similar to the Regularized Least Squares criterion. This paper shows G theory's applications to daily and electronic semantic communication, machine learning, constraint control, Bayesian confirmation, portfolio theory, and information value. The improvements in machine learning methods involve multilabel learning and classification, maximum mutual information classification, mixture models, and solving latent variables. Furthermore, insights from statistical physics are discussed: Shannon information is similar to free energy; semantic information to free energy in local equilibrium systems; and information efficiency to the efficiency of free energy in performing work. The paper also proposes refining Friston's minimum free energy principle into the maximum information efficiency principle. Lastly, it compares G theory with other semantic information theories and discusses its limitation in representing the semantics of complex data.

Multi-agent policy optimization, exemplified by PPO-based methods, is a key branch of cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). A central design question is how many neighboring agentsIn this paper, "neighbors" refer not only to physical proximity but also to agents whose actions influence one another. to aggregate in order to effectively utilize global information for cooperation. This decision must be made along two dimensions: in the advantage (which agents' rewards contribute to the credit signal) and in the ratio (which agents' likelihood ratios form the clipped importance weight). Existing methods occupy scattered, underexplored points on these two axes: IPPO treats both separately; MAPPO pairs a team-level advantage with per-agent ratios; HAPPO employs sequential ratios with per-agent advantages; and single-agent reductions operating on factorized joint policies aggregate both into fully joint products. We formalize these two design choices as support matrices SA and SR, and prove a canonical structure: the expected multi-agent policy optimization objective depends on the pair (SA,SR) only through their matrix product tS=SRSA. This yields two key consequences: (i) Redundancy: the two support matrices are interchangeable with respect to the signal, meaning neither aggregation pattern is inherently superior.(ii) Variance Ordering: the advantage aggregates rewards as a sum (additive variance with an interior bias-variance optimum at the coupling neighborhood), whereas the ratio aggregates likelihood ratios as a product (multiplicative variance that grows exponentially with support size, with no accompanying bias reduction). The resulting design principle is unambiguous: aggregate neighbors in the advantage, sized to the coupling neighborhood, and keep the ratio per-agent.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Noise is a ubiquitous feature of the physical world. As a result, the first prerequisite of life is fault tolerance: maintaining integrity of state despite external bombardment. Recent experimental advances have revealed that biological systems achieve fault tolerance by implementing mathematically intricate error-correcting codes and by organizing in a modular fashion that physically separates functionally distinct subsystems. These elaborate structures represent a vanishing volume in the massive genetic configuration space. How is it possible that the primitive process of evolution, by which all biological systems evolved, achieved such unusual results? In this work, through experiments in Boolean networks, we show that the simultaneous presence of error correction and modularity in biological systems is no coincidence. Rather, it is a typical co-occurrence in noisy dynamic systems undergoing evolution. From this, we deduce the principle of error correction enhanced evolvability: systems possessing error-correcting codes are more effectively improved by evolution than those without.

When training large-scale models, the performance typically scales with the number of parameters and the dataset size according to a slow power law. A fundamental theoretical and practical question is whether comparable performance can be achieved with significantly smaller models and substantially less data. In this work, we provide a positive and constructive answer. We prove that a generic permutation-invariant function of d objects can be asymptotically compressed into a function of polylog d objects with vanishing error, which is proved to be the optimal compression rate. This theorem yields two key implications: (Ia) a large neural network can be compressed to polylogarithmic width while preserving its learning dynamics; (Ib) a large dataset can be compressed to polylogarithmic size while leaving the loss landscape of the corresponding model unchanged. Implication (Ia) directly establishes a proof of the dynamical lottery ticket hypothesis, which states that any ordinary network can be strongly compressed such that the learning dynamics and result remain unchanged. (Ib) shows that a neural scaling law of the form Lsim d^{-α} can be boosted to an arbitrarily fast power law decay, and ultimately to exp(-α' sqrt[m]{d}).

A widely used technique for improving policies is success conditioning, in which one collects trajectories, identifies those that achieve a desired outcome, and updates the policy to imitate the actions taken along successful trajectories. This principle appears under many names -- rejection sampling with SFT, goal-conditioned RL, Decision Transformers -- yet what optimization problem it solves, if any, has remained unclear. We prove that success conditioning exactly solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement subject to a χ^2 divergence constraint whose radius is determined automatically by the data. This yields an identity: relative policy improvement, the magnitude of policy change, and a quantity we call action-influence -- measuring how random variation in action choices affects success rates -- are exactly equal at every state. Success conditioning thus emerges as a conservative improvement operator. Exact success conditioning cannot degrade performance or induce dangerous distribution shift, but when it fails, it does so observably, by hardly changing the policy at all. We apply our theory to the common practice of return thresholding, showing this can amplify improvement, but at the cost of potential misalignment with the true objective.

We introduce a new neural architecture to learn the conditional probability of an output sequence with elements that are discrete tokens corresponding to positions in an input sequence. Such problems cannot be trivially addressed by existent approaches such as sequence-to-sequence and Neural Turing Machines, because the number of target classes in each step of the output depends on the length of the input, which is variable. Problems such as sorting variable sized sequences, and various combinatorial optimization problems belong to this class. Our model solves the problem of variable size output dictionaries using a recently proposed mechanism of neural attention. It differs from the previous attention attempts in that, instead of using attention to blend hidden units of an encoder to a context vector at each decoder step, it uses attention as a pointer to select a member of the input sequence as the output. We call this architecture a Pointer Net (Ptr-Net). We show Ptr-Nets can be used to learn approximate solutions to three challenging geometric problems -- finding planar convex hulls, computing Delaunay triangulations, and the planar Travelling Salesman Problem -- using training examples alone. Ptr-Nets not only improve over sequence-to-sequence with input attention, but also allow us to generalize to variable size output dictionaries. We show that the learnt models generalize beyond the maximum lengths they were trained on. We hope our results on these tasks will encourage a broader exploration of neural learning for discrete problems.