Daily Papers

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation (SSSS) aims to improve segmentation performance by utilizing large amounts of unlabeled data with limited labeled samples. Existing methods often suffer from coupling, where over-reliance on initial labeled data leads to suboptimal learning; confirmation bias, where incorrect predictions reinforce themselves repeatedly; and boundary blur caused by limited boundary-awareness and ambiguous edge cues. To address these issues, we propose CW-BASS, a novel framework for SSSS. In order to mitigate the impact of incorrect predictions, we assign confidence weights to pseudo-labels. Additionally, we leverage boundary-delineation techniques, which, despite being extensively explored in weakly-supervised semantic segmentation (WSSS), remain underutilized in SSSS. Specifically, our method: (1) reduces coupling via a confidence-weighted loss that adjusts pseudo-label influence based on their predicted confidence scores, (2) mitigates confirmation bias with a dynamic thresholding mechanism that learns to filter out pseudo-labels based on model performance, (3) tackles boundary blur using a boundary-aware module to refine segmentation near object edges, and (4) reduces label noise through a confidence decay strategy that progressively refines pseudo-labels during training. Extensive experiments on Pascal VOC 2012 and Cityscapes demonstrate that CW-BASS achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, CW-BASS achieves a 65.9% mIoU on Cityscapes under a challenging and underexplored 1/30 (3.3%) split (100 images), highlighting its effectiveness in limited-label settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/psychofict/CW-BASS.

Multi-agent debate (MAD) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models by having multiple agents iteratively refine their responses through discussion. However, MAD suffers from a critical vulnerability known as shared misconception: when a majority of agents initially converge on an incorrect answer, the debate process tends to amplify rather than correct the error. Existing methods primarily address peer skew but leave the agents' inherently biased concept priors unaddressed. To mitigate this systematic weakness, we propose R^2-MAD (Remember and Reweight for Multi-Agent Debate), a framework that equips agents with an experience memory accumulated from past debates. R^2-MAD intervenes on both failure modes through two complementary mechanisms: A debate-state-aware retrieval policy dynamically calibrates the concept prior by retrieving relevant historical evidence based on the current consensus level. Then these retrieved experiences provide a basis for estimating per-agent reliability, yielding confidence weights to modulate peer influence. Experiments on various benchmarks show that R^2-MAD achieves consistent improvements over existing single-agent and MAD baselines.

Erroneous feature matches have severe impact on subsequent camera pose estimation and often require additional, time-costly measures, like RANSAC, for outlier rejection. Our method tackles this challenge by addressing feature matching and pose optimization jointly. To this end, we propose a graph attention network to predict image correspondences along with confidence weights. The resulting matches serve as weighted constraints in a differentiable pose estimation. Training feature matching with gradients from pose optimization naturally learns to down-weight outliers and boosts pose estimation on image pairs compared to SuperGlue by 6.7% on ScanNet. At the same time, it reduces the pose estimation time by over 50% and renders RANSAC iterations unnecessary. Moreover, we integrate information from multiple views by spanning the graph across multiple frames to predict the matches all at once. Multi-view matching combined with end-to-end training improves the pose estimation metrics on Matterport3D by 18.5% compared to SuperGlue.

Semi-supervised semantic segmentation has long turned on one question, which pseudo-labels to trust, and a generation of selection rules, dynamic thresholds, per-class curricula, soft confidence weights, answered it for the noisy, under-confident ResNet teachers of their day. Self-supervised foundation encoders change the regime: with a DINOv2 teacher, confidence saturates, so the filtering that helped a weak teacher can hurt a strong one. We propose CW-BASS v2, a saturation-aware pseudo-label selection method that reads the teacher's confidence regime rather than committing to one rule. It pairs held-out calibration, an unbiased per-class noise estimate, with a self-adaptive confidence floor that provably bounds retention away from 1, and combines them in a one-pass gate: measure the reliability of the teacher's confident set, pi_kept = Pr[correct | c >= tau], on a held-out slice, and filter strictly when it meets the confidence demanded (pi_kept >= tau), falling back to the adaptive floor otherwise. The boundary is the pre-existing operating threshold, not a value tuned to mIoU, and across six DINOv2 teachers it makes the correct strict-vs-floor call blind. CW-BASS v2 thus recovers the UniMatch V2 operating point on the saturated benchmarks by selecting strict (Pascal VOC 1/8 87.4 against its reported 87.9; Cityscapes within 0.5), and improves on it where the confident set is unreliable (pi_kept ~ 89%, ADE20K), where the floor edges ahead (+1.5 mIoU, single seed). The gate is principled because the failure it avoids is measured, not assumed: on a reliable, saturated teacher the confidence distribution's dynamic range collapses (98% of Pascal pixels >= 0.95), so an adaptive cutoff floods the retention mask and self-training decays into confirmation bias.

Video Temporal Grounding (TG) aims to temporally locate video segments matching a natural language description (a query) in a long video. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are effective at holistic semantic matching, they often struggle with fine-grained temporal localisation. Recently, Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) reformulates the inference process as a reinforcement learning task, enabling fine-grained grounding and achieving strong in-domain performance. However, GRPO relies on labelled data, making it unsuitable in unlabelled domains. Moreover, because videos are large and expensive to store and process, performing full-scale adaptation introduces prohibitive latency and computational overhead, making it impractical for real-time deployment. To overcome both problems, we introduce a Data-Efficient Unlabelled Cross-domain Temporal Grounding method, from which a model is first trained on a labelled source domain, then adapted to a target domain using only a small number of unlabelled videos from the target domain. This approach eliminates the need for target annotation and keeps both computational and storage overhead low enough to run in real time. Specifically, we introduce. Uncertainty-quantified Rollout Policy Adaptation (URPA) for cross-domain knowledge transfer in learning video temporal grounding without target labels. URPA generates multiple candidate predictions using GRPO rollouts, averages them to form a pseudo label, and estimates confidence from the variance across these rollouts. This confidence then weights the training rewards, guiding the model to focus on reliable supervision. Experiments on three datasets across six cross-domain settings show that URPA generalises well using only a few unlabelled target videos. Codes will be released once published.

Industrial and medical anomaly detection faces critical challenges from data scarcity and prohibitive annotation costs, particularly in evolving manufacturing and healthcare settings. To address this, we propose CoZAD, a novel zero-shot anomaly detection framework that integrates soft confident learning with meta-learning and contrastive feature representation. Unlike traditional confident learning that discards uncertain samples, our method assigns confidence-based weights to all training data, preserving boundary information while emphasizing prototypical normal patterns. The framework quantifies data uncertainty through IQR-based thresholding and model uncertainty via covariance based regularization within a Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning. Contrastive learning creates discriminative feature spaces where normal patterns form compact clusters, enabling rapid domain adaptation. Comprehensive evaluation across 10 datasets spanning industrial and medical domains demonstrates state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods on 6 out of 7 industrial benchmarks with notable improvements on texture-rich datasets (99.2% I-AUROC on DTD-Synthetic, 97.2% on BTAD) and pixellevel localization (96.3% P-AUROC on MVTec-AD). The framework eliminates dependence on vision-language alignments or model ensembles, making it valuable for resourceconstrained environments requiring rapid deployment.

Recent studies introduced effective compression techniques for Large Language Models (LLMs) via post-training quantization or low-bit weight representation. Although quantized weights offer storage efficiency and allow for faster inference, existing works have indicated that quantization might compromise performance and exacerbate biases in LLMs. This study investigates the confidence and calibration of quantized models, considering factors such as language model type and scale as contributors to quantization loss. Firstly, we reveal that quantization with GPTQ to 4-bit results in a decrease in confidence regarding true labels, with varying impacts observed among different language models. Secondly, we observe fluctuations in the impact on confidence across different scales. Finally, we propose an explanation for quantization loss based on confidence levels, indicating that quantization disproportionately affects samples where the full model exhibited low confidence levels in the first place.

While significant advances exist in pseudo-label generation for semi-supervised semantic segmentation, pseudo-label selection remains understudied. Existing methods typically use fixed confidence thresholds to retain high-confidence predictions as pseudo-labels. However, these methods cannot cope with network overconfidence tendency, where correct and incorrect predictions overlap significantly in high-confidence regions, making separation challenging and amplifying model cognitive bias. Meanwhile, the direct discarding of low-confidence predictions disrupts spatial-semantic continuity, causing critical context loss. We propose Confidence Separable Learning (CSL) to address these limitations. CSL formulates pseudo-label selection as a convex optimization problem within the confidence distribution feature space, establishing sample-specific decision boundaries to distinguish reliable from unreliable predictions. Additionally, CSL introduces random masking of reliable pixels to guide the network in learning contextual relationships from low-reliability regions, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of discarding uncertain predictions. Extensive experimental results on the Pascal, Cityscapes, and COCO benchmarks show that CSL performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Code and model weights are available at https://github.com/PanLiuCSU/CSL.

Source-free unsupervised domain adaptation (SFUDA) aims to obtain high performance in the unlabeled target domain using the pre-trained source model, not the source data. Existing SFUDA methods assign the same importance to all target samples, which is vulnerable to incorrect pseudo-labels. To differentiate between sample importance, in this study, we propose a novel sample-wise confidence score, the Joint Model-Data Structure (JMDS) score for SFUDA. Unlike existing confidence scores that use only one of the source or target domain knowledge, the JMDS score uses both knowledge. We then propose a Confidence score Weighting Adaptation using the JMDS (CoWA-JMDS) framework for SFUDA. CoWA-JMDS consists of the JMDS scores as sample weights and weight Mixup that is our proposed variant of Mixup. Weight Mixup promotes the model make more use of the target domain knowledge. The experimental results show that the JMDS score outperforms the existing confidence scores. Moreover, CoWA-JMDS achieves state-of-the-art performance on various SFUDA scenarios: closed, open, and partial-set scenarios.

Zero-shot LLMs are now also used for textual classification tasks, e.g., sentiment/emotion detection of a given input as a sentence/article. However, their performance can be suboptimal in such data annotation tasks. We introduce a novel technique Perceived Confidence Scoring (PCS) that evaluates LLM's confidence for its classification of an input by leveraging Metamorphic Relations (MRs). The MRs generate semantically equivalent yet textually mutated versions of the input. Following the principles of Metamorphic Testing (MT), the mutated versions are expected to have annotation labels similar to the input. By analyzing the consistency of LLM responses across these variations, PCS computes a confidence score based on the frequency of predicted labels. PCS can be used both for single LLM and multiple LLM settings (e.g., majority voting). We introduce an algorithm Perceived Differential Evolution (PDE) that determines the optimal weights assigned to the MRs and the LLMs for a classification task. Empirical evaluation shows PCS significantly improves zero-shot accuracy for Llama-3-8B-Instruct (4.96%) and Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3 (10.52%), with Gemma-2-9b-it showing a 9.39% gain. When combining all three models, PCS significantly outperforms majority voting by 7.75%.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) show promise for medical applications, yet progress in dermatology lags due to limited training data, narrow task coverage, and lack of clinically-grounded supervision that mirrors expert diagnostic workflows. We present a comprehensive framework to address these gaps. First, we introduce DermoInstruct, a large-scale morphology-anchored instruction corpus comprising 211,243 images and 772,675 trajectories across five task formats, capturing the complete diagnostic pipeline from morphological observation and clinical reasoning to final diagnosis. Second, we establish DermoBench, a rigorous benchmark evaluating 11 tasks across four clinical axes: Morphology, Diagnosis, Reasoning, and Fairness, including a challenging subset of 3,600 expert-verified open-ended instances and human performance baselines. Third, we develop DermoGPT, a dermatology reasoning MLLM trained via supervised fine-tuning followed by our Morphologically-Anchored Visual-Inference-Consistent (MAVIC) reinforcement learning objective, which enforces consistency between visual observations and diagnostic conclusions. At inference, we deploy Confidence-Consistency Test-time adaptation (CCT) for robust predictions. Experiments show DermoGPT significantly outperforms 16 representative baselines across all axes, achieving state-of-the-art performance while substantially narrowing the human-AI gap. DermoInstruct, DermoBench and DermoGPT will be made publicly available at https://github.com/mendicant04/DermoGPT upon acceptance.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have made remarkable progress across visual perception tasks, yet spatial reasoning remains a persistent weakness, especially for questions that require reasoning over visual space. Recent spatial-reasoning methods incorporate generated grounding, where models predict bounding boxes, masks, or other localization outputs for task-relevant objects as part of their reasoning trace. However, these approaches typically optimize final-answer correctness alone, allowing correct answers to be rewarded even when the model does not reason from confidently localized task-relevant objects. We introduce SpatialCORE (Spatially COnfident REasoning), a post-training framework that turns the model's own confidence in generated grounding into a learning signal for spatial reasoning. Its central idea is to reinforce grounding that is both accurate and confident, encouraging the model to reason from confidently localized task-relevant objects. SpatialCORE realizes this through a self-regulating spatial reward that weights each predicted bounding box's matching quality by its coordinate-token confidence. An answer gate further ties grounding optimization to final-answer correctness. SpatialCORE achieves state-of-the-art results among open-source and specialized spatial reasoning models across diverse benchmarks, and transfers effectively in zero-shot settings to unseen data distributions. The source code is available at https://github.com/rafiibnsultan/SpatialCORE.

The conventional modus operandi for adapting pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) during test-time involves tuning learnable prompts, ie, test-time prompt tuning. This paper introduces Test-Time Low-rank adaptation (TTL) as an alternative to prompt tuning for zero-shot generalization of large-scale VLMs. Taking inspiration from recent advancements in efficiently fine-tuning large language models, TTL offers a test-time parameter-efficient adaptation approach that updates the attention weights of the transformer encoder by maximizing prediction confidence. The self-supervised confidence maximization objective is specified using a weighted entropy loss that enforces consistency among predictions of augmented samples. TTL introduces only a small amount of trainable parameters for low-rank adapters in the model space while keeping the prompts and backbone frozen. Extensive experiments on a variety of natural distribution and cross-domain tasks show that TTL can outperform other techniques for test-time optimization of VLMs in strict zero-shot settings. Specifically, TTL outperforms test-time prompt tuning baselines with a significant improvement on average. Our code is available at at https://github.com/Razaimam45/TTL-Test-Time-Low-Rank-Adaptation.

The conventional recipe for maximizing model accuracy is to (1) train multiple models with various hyperparameters and (2) pick the individual model which performs best on a held-out validation set, discarding the remainder. In this paper, we revisit the second step of this procedure in the context of fine-tuning large pre-trained models, where fine-tuned models often appear to lie in a single low error basin. We show that averaging the weights of multiple models fine-tuned with different hyperparameter configurations often improves accuracy and robustness. Unlike a conventional ensemble, we may average many models without incurring any additional inference or memory costs -- we call the results "model soups." When fine-tuning large pre-trained models such as CLIP, ALIGN, and a ViT-G pre-trained on JFT, our soup recipe provides significant improvements over the best model in a hyperparameter sweep on ImageNet. The resulting ViT-G model, which attains 90.94% top-1 accuracy on ImageNet, achieved a new state of the art. Furthermore, we show that the model soup approach extends to multiple image classification and natural language processing tasks, improves out-of-distribution performance, and improves zero-shot performance on new downstream tasks. Finally, we analytically relate the performance similarity of weight-averaging and logit-ensembling to flatness of the loss and confidence of the predictions, and validate this relation empirically. Code is available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/model-soups.

Multi-agent debates have been introduced to improve the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) by having multiple agents discuss solutions to a problem over several rounds of debate. However, models often generate incorrect yet confident-sounding responses, which can mislead others. This issue arises partly because agents do not consider how confident their peers are. To address this, we propose DebUnc, a debate framework that uses uncertainty metrics to assess agent confidence. Confidence is then conveyed through a modified attention mechanism that adjusts token weights, or through textual prompts. Evaluations across benchmarks show that attention-based methods are particularly effective and that performance continues to improve as uncertainty estimation becomes more reliable. The code is available at https://github.com/lukeyoffe/debunc.

Audio-driven human animation technology is widely used in human-computer interaction, and the emergence of diffusion models has further advanced its development. Currently, most methods rely on multi-stage generation and intermediate representations, resulting in long inference time and issues with generation quality in specific foreground regions and audio-motion consistency. These shortcomings are primarily due to the lack of localized fine-grained supervised guidance. To address above challenges, we propose Parts-aware Audio-driven Human Animation, PAHA, a unit enhancement and guidance framework for audio-driven upper-body animation. We introduce two key methods: Parts-Aware Re-weighting (PAR) and Parts Consistency Enhancement (PCE). PAR dynamically adjusts regional training loss weights based on pose confidence scores, effectively improving visual quality. PCE constructs and trains diffusion-based regional audio-visual classifiers to improve the consistency of motion and co-speech audio. Afterwards, we design two novel inference guidance methods for the foregoing classifiers, Sequential Guidance (SG) and Differential Guidance (DG), to balance efficiency and quality respectively. Additionally, we build CNAS, the first public Chinese News Anchor Speech dataset, to advance research and validation in this field. Extensive experimental results and user studies demonstrate that PAHA significantly outperforms existing methods in audio-motion alignment and video-related evaluations. The codes and CNAS dataset will be released upon acceptance.

We study training-inference mismatch in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for large language models, where rollouts are sampled by an inference engine while gradients are computed by a training engine, and the two engines assign different probabilities to the same tokens. To account for this discrepancy in policy updates, we introduce calibrated importance sampling (CIS). CIS is motivated by an empirically supported logit-displacement characterization that expresses the mismatch as an additive displacement varepsilon_t in log-odds, determined by the per-logit perturbation before the softmax, whose distribution is approximately invariant to token confidence. This characterization motivates a confidence-aware truncation: large positive displacements are truncated at a single constant threshold, which maps back to an importance-ratio cap that tightens as token confidence increases. Theoretically, we show that CIS replaces the unbounded second moment that governs the error of exact importance sampling with a term bounded by a constant, at the cost of a bias controlled by the truncated excess. In evaluation across three mixture-of-experts models and five mathematical reasoning benchmarks, CIS achieves the highest five-benchmark average on all three models among the evaluated baselines. Diagnostic analyses show that CIS places less truncation bias on low-confidence tokens than truncated importance sampling, while upward clipping of small importance weights reduces held-out accuracy.

General-purpose frontier models are large, expensive to run, and increasingly reluctant to engage with authorised defensive- and offensive-security work. We ask the opposite question: how small can a cybersecurity-specialist transformer be while remaining genuinely useful to a security practitioner? We introduce CT0, a Cybersecurity Transformer architecture, and CT0-Micro, its first incarnation: a compact (~4B-parameter) model built on the open base model, whose backbone is specialised by two-phase on-policy distillation on our Cybersecurity AI (CAI) dataset. CT0 serves two modes from one set of weights: System 1 answers typed security decisions (is this file suspicious, is this request an attack, did the model just refuse) in a single forward pass without generating a token, System 2 is the usual tool-using agent, and a confidence gate spends generation only where the fast path is unsure. Specialisation lifts the agentic path: CT0-Micro solves 21.1% of cybench-subtask against 7.6% for its base, above every open model of comparable footprint and the densest cybersecurity capability per parameter we measured. The fast path is what the architecture buys: CT0-Micro screens eighty files per second for indicators of compromise, catches its own refusals at 96.5% accuracy in 47 ms where the model judging itself reaches 76.5% in 254 ms and misses half of them, flags jailbreak requests at AUROC 0.966 in 8 ms, and, generating only for the facts it is unsure about, extracts vulnerability facts more accurately than either mode alone at a fifth of the generative cost. All of it is built in about 314 RTX PRO 6000 GPU-hours and served from one workstation GPU, with no policy layer between operator and target. Across eighteen benchmarks and use cases run with one checkpoint and head, we report where the design helps, where it does not, and what it still lacks.

The performance of acquisition functions for Bayesian optimisation to locate the global optimum of continuous functions is investigated in terms of the Pareto front between exploration and exploitation. We show that Expected Improvement (EI) and the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) always select solutions to be expensively evaluated on the Pareto front, but Probability of Improvement is not guaranteed to do so and Weighted Expected Improvement does so only for a restricted range of weights. We introduce two novel epsilon-greedy acquisition functions. Extensive empirical evaluation of these together with random search, purely exploratory, and purely exploitative search on 10 benchmark problems in 1 to 10 dimensions shows that epsilon-greedy algorithms are generally at least as effective as conventional acquisition functions (e.g., EI and UCB), particularly with a limited budget. In higher dimensions epsilon-greedy approaches are shown to have improved performance over conventional approaches. These results are borne out on a real world computational fluid dynamics optimisation problem and a robotics active learning problem. Our analysis and experiments suggest that the most effective strategy, particularly in higher dimensions, is to be mostly greedy, occasionally selecting a random exploratory solution.

This work presents self-rewarding sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), an inference-time scaling algorithm enabling effective sampling of masked diffusion language models (MDLMs). Our algorithm stems from the observation that most existing MDLMs rely on a confidence-based sampling strategy, where only tokens with the highest prediction confidence are preserved at each step. This restricts the generation to a noise-sensitive, greedy decoding paradigm, resulting in an inevitable collapse in the diversity of possible paths. We address this problem by launching multiple interacting diffusion processes in parallel, referred to as particles, for trajectory exploration. Importantly, we introduce the trajectory-level confidence as a self-rewarding signal for assigning particle importance weights. During sampling, particles are iteratively weighted and resampled to systematically steer generation towards globally confident, high-quality samples. Our self-rewarding SMC is verified on various masked diffusion language models and benchmarks, achieving significant improvement without extra training or reward guidance, while effectively converting parallel inference capacity into improved sampling quality. Our code is available at https://github.com/Algolzw/self-rewarding-smc.

Recent advancements in self-supervised learning have led to powerful surgical vision encoders capable of spatiotemporal understanding. However, extending these visual foundations to multi-modal reasoning tasks is severely bottlenecked by the prohibitive cost of expert textual annotations. To overcome this scalability limitation, we introduce LIME, a large-scale multi-modal dataset derived from open-access surgical videos using human-free, Large Language Model (LLM)-generated narratives. While LIME offers immense scalability, unverified generated texts may contain errors, including hallucinations, that could potentially lead to catastrophically degraded pre-trained medical priors in standard contrastive pipelines. To mitigate this, we propose SurgLIME, a parameter-efficient Vision-Language Pre-training (VLP) framework designed to learn reliable cross-modal alignments using noisy narratives. SurgLIME preserves foundational medical priors using a LoRA-adapted dual-encoder architecture and introduces an automated confidence estimation mechanism that dynamically down-weights uncertain text during contrastive alignment. Evaluations on the AutoLaparo and Cholec80 benchmarks show that SurgLIME achieves competitive zero-shot cross-modal alignment while preserving the robust linear probing performance of the visual foundation model. Dataset, code, and models are publicly available at https://github.com/visurg-ai/SurgLIME.

In this paper, we describe a tool for debugging the output and attention weights of neural machine translation (NMT) systems and for improved estimations of confidence about the output based on the attention. The purpose of the tool is to help researchers and developers find weak and faulty example translations that their NMT systems produce without the need for reference translations. Our tool also includes an option to directly compare translation outputs from two different NMT engines or experiments. In addition, we present a demo website of our tool with examples of good and bad translations: http://attention.lielakeda.lv

Medical image segmentation faces critical challenges in semi-supervised learning scenarios due to severe annotation scarcity requiring expert radiological knowledge, significant inter-annotator variability across different viewpoints and expertise levels, and inadequate multi-scale feature integration for precise boundary delineation in complex anatomical structures. Existing semi-supervised methods demonstrate substantial performance degradation compared to fully supervised approaches, particularly in small target segmentation and boundary refinement tasks. To address these fundamental challenges, we propose SASNet (Scale-aware Adaptive Supervised Network), a dual-branch architecture that leverages both low-level and high-level feature representations through novel scale-aware adaptive reweight mechanisms. Our approach introduces three key methodological innovations, including the Scale-aware Adaptive Reweight strategy that dynamically weights pixel-wise predictions using temporal confidence accumulation, the View Variance Enhancement mechanism employing 3D Fourier domain transformations to simulate annotation variability, and segmentation-regression consistency learning through signed distance map algorithms for enhanced boundary precision. These innovations collectively address the core limitations of existing semi-supervised approaches by integrating spatial, temporal, and geometric consistency principles within a unified optimization framework. Comprehensive evaluation across LA, Pancreas-CT, and BraTS datasets demonstrates that SASNet achieves superior performance with limited labeled data, surpassing state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods while approaching fully supervised performance levels. The source code for SASNet is available at https://github.com/HUANGLIZI/SASNet.

Animatable 3D assets, defined as geometry equipped with an articulated skeleton and skinning weights, are fundamental to interactive graphics, embodied agents, and animation production. While recent 3D generative models can synthesize visually plausible shapes from images, the results are typically static. Obtaining usable rigs via post-hoc auto-rigging is brittle and often produces skeletons that are topologically inconsistent with the generated geometry. We present AniGen, a unified framework that directly generates animate-ready 3D assets conditioned on a single image. Our key insight is to represent shape, skeleton, and skinning as mutually consistent S^3 Fields (Shape, Skeleton, Skin) defined over a shared spatial domain. To enable the robust learning of these fields, we introduce two technical innovations: (i) a confidence-decaying skeleton field that explicitly handles the geometric ambiguity of bone prediction at Voronoi boundaries, and (ii) a dual skin feature field that decouples skinning weights from specific joint counts, allowing a fixed-architecture network to predict rigs of arbitrary complexity. Built upon a two-stage flow-matching pipeline, AniGen first synthesizes a sparse structural scaffold and then generates dense geometry and articulation in a structured latent space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AniGen substantially outperforms state-of-the-art sequential baselines in rig validity and animation quality, generalizing effectively to in-the-wild images across diverse categories including animals, humanoids, and machinery. Homepage: https://yihua7.github.io/AniGen-web/

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding maps natural language instructions to the visual coordinates of target elements and serves as a core capability for autonomous GUI agents. Recent reinforcement learning methods (e.g., GRPO) have achieved strong performance, but they rely on expensive multiple rollouts and suffer from sparse signals on hard samples. These limitations make on-policy self-distillation (OPSD), which provides dense token-level supervision from a single rollout, a promising alternative. However, its applicability to GUI grounding remains unexplored. In this paper, we present GUI-SD, the first OPSD framework tailored for GUI grounding. First, it constructs a visually enriched privileged context for the teacher using a target bounding box and a Gaussian soft mask, providing informative guidance without leaking exact coordinates. Second, it employs entropy-guided distillation, which adaptively weights tokens based on digit significance and teacher confidence, concentrating optimization on the most impactful and reliable positions. Extensive experiments on six representative GUI grounding benchmarks show that GUI-SD consistently outperforms GRPO-based methods and naive OPSD in both accuracy and training efficiency. Code and training data are available at https://zhangyan-ucas.github.io/GUI-SD/.

Weight oscillation is an undesirable side effect of quantization-aware training, in which quantized weights frequently jump between two quantized levels, resulting in training instability and a sub-optimal final model. We discover that the learnable scaling factor, a widely-used de facto setting in quantization aggravates weight oscillation. In this study, we investigate the connection between the learnable scaling factor and quantized weight oscillation and use ViT as a case driver to illustrate the findings and remedies. In addition, we also found that the interdependence between quantized weights in query and key of a self-attention layer makes ViT vulnerable to oscillation. We, therefore, propose three techniques accordingly: statistical weight quantization (rm StatsQ) to improve quantization robustness compared to the prevalent learnable-scale-based method; confidence-guided annealing (rm CGA) that freezes the weights with high confidence and calms the oscillating weights; and query-key reparameterization (rm QKR) to resolve the query-key intertwined oscillation and mitigate the resulting gradient misestimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that these proposed techniques successfully abate weight oscillation and consistently achieve substantial accuracy improvement on ImageNet. Specifically, our 2-bit DeiT-T/DeiT-S algorithms outperform the previous state-of-the-art by 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/nbasyl/OFQ.

Due to their highly structured characteristics, faces are easier to recover than natural scenes for blind image super-resolution. Therefore, we can extract the degradation representation of an image from the low-quality and recovered face pairs. Using the degradation representation, realistic low-quality images can then be synthesized to fine-tune the super-resolution model for the real-world low-quality image. However, such a procedure is time-consuming and laborious, and the gaps between recovered faces and the ground-truths further increase the optimization uncertainty. To facilitate efficient model adaptation towards image-specific degradations, we propose a method dubbed MetaF2N, which leverages the contained Faces to fine-tune model parameters for adapting to the whole Natural image in a Meta-learning framework. The degradation extraction and low-quality image synthesis steps are thus circumvented in our MetaF2N, and it requires only one fine-tuning step to get decent performance. Considering the gaps between the recovered faces and ground-truths, we further deploy a MaskNet for adaptively predicting loss weights at different positions to reduce the impact of low-confidence areas. To evaluate our proposed MetaF2N, we have collected a real-world low-quality dataset with one or multiple faces in each image, and our MetaF2N achieves superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Source code, pre-trained models, and collected datasets are available at https://github.com/yinzhicun/MetaF2N.

The upscaling of Large Language Models (LLMs) has yielded impressive advances in natural language processing, yet it also poses significant deployment challenges. Weight quantization has emerged as a widely embraced solution to reduce memory and computational demands. This paper introduces BitDistiller, a framework that synergizes Quantization-Aware Training (QAT) with Knowledge Distillation (KD) to boost the performance of LLMs at ultra-low precisions (sub-4-bit). Specifically, BitDistiller first incorporates a tailored asymmetric quantization and clipping technique to maximally preserve the fidelity of quantized weights, and then proposes a novel Confidence-Aware Kullback-Leibler Divergence (CAKLD) objective, which is employed in a self-distillation manner to enable faster convergence and superior model performance. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that BitDistiller significantly surpasses existing methods in both 3-bit and 2-bit configurations on general language understanding and complex reasoning benchmarks. Notably, BitDistiller is shown to be more cost-effective, demanding fewer data and training resources. The code is available at https://github.com/DD-DuDa/BitDistiller.

The rise of on-chip accelerators signifies a major shift in computing, driven by the growing demands of artificial intelligence (AI) and specialized applications. These accelerators have gained popularity due to their ability to substantially boost performance, cut energy usage, lower total cost of ownership (TCO), and promote sustainability. Intel's Advanced Matrix Extensions (AMX) is one such on-chip accelerator, specifically designed for handling tasks involving large matrix multiplications commonly used in machine learning (ML) models, image processing, and other computational-heavy operations. In this paper, we introduce a novel value-dependent timing side-channel vulnerability in Intel AMX. By exploiting this weakness, we demonstrate a software-based, value-dependent timing side-channel attack capable of inferring the sparsity of neural network weights without requiring any knowledge of the confidence score, privileged access or physical proximity. Our attack method can fully recover the sparsity of weights assigned to 64 input elements within 50 minutes, which is 631% faster than the maximum leakage rate achieved in the Hertzbleed attack.

Deep networks that rely on prototypes-interpretable representations that can be related to the model input-have gained significant attention for balancing high accuracy with inherent interpretability, which makes them suitable for critical domains such as healthcare. However, these models are limited by their reliance on training data, which hampers their robustness to distribution shifts. While test-time adaptation (TTA) improves the robustness of deep networks by updating parameters and statistics, the prototypes of interpretable models have not been explored for this purpose. We introduce ProtoTTA, a general framework for prototypical models that leverages intermediate prototype signals rather than relying solely on model outputs. ProtoTTA minimizes the entropy of the prototype-similarity distribution to encourage more confident and prototype-specific activations on shifted data. To maintain stability, we employ geometric filtering to restrict updates to samples with reliable prototype activations, regularized by prototype-importance weights and model-confidence scores. Experiments across four prototypical backbones on four diverse benchmarks spanning fine-grained vision, histopathology, and NLP demonstrate that ProtoTTA improves robustness over standard output entropy minimization while restoring correct semantic focus in prototype activations. We also introduce novel interpretability metrics and a vision-language model (VLM) evaluation framework to explain TTA dynamics, confirming ProtoTTA restores human-aligned semantic focus and correlates reliably with VLM-rated reasoning quality. Code is available at: https://github.com/DeepRCL/ProtoTTA.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to conventional Auto-Regressive (AR) Large Language Models (LLMs). By leveraging bidirectional attention and parallel decoding, dLLMs enable more efficient generation. However, they require a carefully designed denoising scheduler at inference time (absent during training) whose choice significantly impacts generation quality. While confidence-based heuristic schedulers have shown strong empirical performance, they suffer from two critical failure modes: EOS Overflow and Proximal Bias. Through in-depth analysis of the Transformer's attention patterns, we reveal that these failures stem from certain positions assigning disproportionately high attention weights to invalid tokens (e.g., [MASK] and [EOS]), which produce misleading confidence signals. Building on this insight, empirical evidence shows that valid attention scores can provide complementary guidance to conventional confidence-based heuristics, yet no single metric consistently excels across all scenarios, implying that the optimal denoising trajectory is highly context-dependent. To address this problem, we propose a lightweight evolutionary heuristic scheduler optimized using the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). Our scheduler dynamically integrates multiple heuristic features with a contextual mean-field embedding, while requiring only 393 trainable parameters. Evaluated on LLaDA and Dream across four reasoning and planning benchmarks, our method consistently outperforms strong baselines, including conventional heuristics, block auto-regressive methods, and recent State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) approaches. To the best of our knowledge, it represents the most parameter-efficient neural scheduler to date. Our code is available at https://github.com/RS2002/Evo-Denoise .

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Despite its simplicity and efficacy, the high token expenditure of self-consistency can limit its practical utility. Here we investigate if self-consistency can be made more token-efficient for long chain-of-thought reasoning tasks, while preserving its parallelism, through early hypothesis pruning. Concretely, we generate all solutions in parallel, but periodically prune intermediate hypotheses that are deemed unnecessary based on two lightweight indicators: (a) the model's own confidence in individual hypotheses, and (b) lexical coverage of all current hypotheses by candidate subsets that are under consideration for continued retention. We design a fast weighted set cover algorithm that utilizes the two indicators; our evaluation of five LLMs on three math benchmarks shows that this method can improve token efficiency for all models, by 10-35% in many cases.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a standard paradigm for refining large language models (LLMs) beyond pre-training and instruction tuning. A prominent line of work is RL with verifiable rewards (RLVR), which leverages automatically verifiable outcomes (e.g., correctness or executability) to generate reward signals. While efficient, this framework faces two key limitations: First, its binary feedback is too sparse to capture the quality of the reasoning process. Second, its coarse-grained rewards potentially lead to vanishing gradients. Inspired by observations from human learning, we introduce a RL technique that integrates verifiable outcomes with the model's own confidence estimates. This joint design enriches the reward signal, providing finer-grained feedback and implicitly supervising the reasoning process. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method enhances RL performance across multiple datasets and reduces token consumption during inference, while incurring negligible additional training cost. Moreover, it can be used as a plug-in module to enhance other state-of-the-art RL methods.

Multi-agent systems have demonstrated exceptional performance in downstream tasks beyond diverse single agent baselines. A growing body of work has explored ways to improve their reasoning and collaboration, from vote, debate, to complex interaction protocols. However, it still remains opaque why specific choice would be preferred in multi-agent systems. Inspired by the decision-making mechanism of democratic committees and The Society of Mind, we introduce Roundtable Policy, an inference-time reasoning framework for multi-agent systems that performs inference through the weighted consensus of multiple LLMs. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate its that this approach significantly enhances reasoning in complex heterogeneous scientific tasks. Roundtable Policy emphasizes structured and interpretable inference rather than opaque convergence, while requires only black-box access and uniform procedures, making it broadly applicable to diverse multi-agent systems.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard recipe for improving large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks, with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) widely used in practice. Yet GRPO wastes substantial compute on negative groups: groups in which no sampled response is correct yield zero advantage and thus no gradient. We ask whether negative groups can be leveraged without extra supervision. Starting from a maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective in reward modeling, we show that the MLE gradient is equivalent to a policy gradient for a modified value function. This value function adds a confidence-weighted penalty on incorrect responses, imposing larger penalties on more confident mistakes. We refer to this as Likelihood Estimation with Negative Samples (LENS). LENS modifies GRPO to assign non-zero, confidence-dependent rewards to incorrect generations, making negative groups informative and converting previously wasted samples into useful gradient updates. On the MATH benchmark with Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-3B, the proposed variant consistently outperforms GRPO baseline, with significant gains on harder items. These results demonstrate a principled and practical way to "rescue" negative groups, improving efficiency and performance in RLVR.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) exhibit remarkable performance for Novel View Synthesis (NVS) given a set of 2D images. However, NeRF training requires accurate camera pose for each input view, typically obtained by Structure-from-Motion (SfM) pipelines. Recent works have attempted to relax this constraint, but they still often rely on decent initial poses which they can refine. Here we aim at removing the requirement for pose initialization. We present Incremental CONfidence (ICON), an optimization procedure for training NeRFs from 2D video frames. ICON only assumes smooth camera motion to estimate initial guess for poses. Further, ICON introduces ``confidence": an adaptive measure of model quality used to dynamically reweight gradients. ICON relies on high-confidence poses to learn NeRF, and high-confidence 3D structure (as encoded by NeRF) to learn poses. We show that ICON, without prior pose initialization, achieves superior performance in both CO3D and HO3D versus methods which use SfM pose.

When a coordinator compares answers from heterogeneous foundation models, self-reported confidence may have different meanings across responders and changing workloads. This paper presents MARGIN (Multi-Agent Runtime Grading via Incremental Normalisation), a runtime calibration method that learns model-specific confidence corrections from observed answer outcomes without retraining the models or requiring a held-out calibration set. MARGIN tracks recent accuracy and stated confidence within confidence bands, uses their ratio to correct reported confidence, and blends sparse-band corrections toward a model-level estimate. The corrected scores weight candidate answers in a collective decision. Evaluation covers code generation, question answering, and mathematics, using an 18-model pool and a nine-model subset for distribution-shift experiments. On BigCodeBench, model-mean confidence is negatively related to accuracy; among correct/incorrect response pairs, choosing the more confident responder performs below chance. Against five online calibration baselines receiving identical feedback and retaining their learned state across each transition, MARGIN achieves lower post-shift expected calibration error than all five in two code-generation transitions and than four in a question-answering transition; the remaining question-answering comparison is inconclusive. In separate code-generation coordination experiments, calibration improves the ranking of correct responses and increases answer-selection accuracy by 4.3 and 14.0 percentage points on two of three benchmarks relative to uncalibrated confidence weighting. These results support model-specific runtime calibration for coordination under changing workloads when correctness feedback is available for the participating responders.

Expert-level scientific reasoning remains challenging for large language models, particularly on benchmarks such as Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), where rigid tool pipelines, brittle multi-agent coordination, and inefficient test-time scaling often limit performance. We introduce ReThinker, a confidence-aware agentic framework that orchestrates retrieval, tool use, and multi-agent reasoning through a stage-wise Solver-Critic-Selector architecture. Rather than following a fixed pipeline, ReThinker dynamically allocates computation based on model confidence, enabling adaptive tool invocation, guided multi-dimensional reflection, and robust confidence-weighted selection. To support scalable training without human annotation, we further propose a reverse data synthesis pipeline and an adaptive trajectory recycling strategy that transform successful reasoning traces into high-quality supervision. Experiments on HLE, GAIA, and XBench demonstrate that ReThinker consistently outperforms state-of-the-art foundation models with tools and existing deep research systems, achieving state-of-the-art results on expert-level reasoning tasks.

Parallel reasoning improves the accuracy and robustness of large reasoning models by exploring multiple solution paths, but its computational cost grows with reasoning depth and branch count. Existing methods for managing these parallel paths typically rely on final-answer consensus, local token confidence, or isolated intermediate probes. However, these signals are often delayed, weakly tied to actual reasoning progress, or too noisy for dynamic, branch-level control. To address these limitations, we introduce ParaTempo, a training-free asynchronous parallel reasoning framework. ParaTempo is driven by temporal confidence, a branch-local measure of answer-space convergence. Each branch is periodically probed for a tentative answer probability distribution, and temporal confidence quantifies how sharply the recent intermediate probes concentrate on a dominant answer. Once sufficient evidence has accumulated, ParaTempo drives its entire control process from this single signal: low-confidence branches are pruned, branches that persistently commit to their dominant answer are retired early, freed computation is reallocated by forking new branches, and generation stops globally once the confidence-weighted vote concentrates. Without requiring synchronization among reasoning trajectories, ParaTempo adaptively allocates computation based on branch-level convergence. Experiments on challenging mathematical and scientific reasoning benchmarks show that ParaTempo reduces average latency by 21.8-32.2% and total token usage by 18.1-30.3% while maintaining competitive accuracy. Moreover, temporal confidence exhibits stronger temporal stability and predictive power for future branch convergence than token-level and instantaneous signals.

The most accurate monocular visual odometry systems require known camera intrinsics, refine their estimates with test-time optimization, and recover trajectories only up to an unknown factor. Systems built on large 3D models need no intrinsics, but they remain considerably less accurate and slower for odometry. Direct pose regression avoids all these requirements, yet it has not matched either approach's accuracy. We revisit this formulation with a transformer that predicts relative camera poses together with separate rotation and translation confidences over overlapping image windows, supervised by camera poses alone. A confidence-weighted module then aggregates the overlapping predictions into a single trajectory. The resulting method, CalfVO, needs no intrinsics, no bundle adjustment, and no loop closure, and it recovers scale from learned priors, accurately enough that it is evaluated without any alignment to the ground truth. Across five benchmarks, it is the most accurate calibration-free method on every metric we report, and it runs at 53 FPS, faster than every baseline.

Aligning large visual generative models with human feedback is often performed through pairwise preference optimization. While such approaches are conceptually simple, they fundamentally rely on annotated pairs, limiting scalability in settings where feedback is collected as independent scalar ratings. In this work, we revisit the KL-regularized alignment objective and show that the optimal policy implicitly compares each sample's reward to an instance-specific baseline that is generally intractable. We propose a threshold-guided alignment framework that replaces this oracle baseline with a data-driven global threshold estimated from empirical score statistics. This formulation turns alignment into a binary decision task on unpaired data, enabling effective optimization directly from scalar feedback. We also incorporate a confidence weighting term to emphasize samples whose scores deviate strongly from the threshold, improving sample efficiency. Experiments across both diffusion and masked generative paradigms, spanning three test sets and five reward models, show that our method consistently improves preference alignment over previous methods. These results position our threshold-guided framework as a simple yet principled alternative for aligning visual generative models without paired comparisons.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) consists of transferring “knowledge” from one machine learning model (the teacher) to another (the student). Commonly, the teacher is a high-capacity model with formidable performance, while the student is more compact. By transferring knowledge, one hopes to benefit from the student’s compactness, without sacrificing too much performance. We study KD from a new perspective: rather than compressing models, we train students parameterized identically to their teachers. Surprisingly, these Born-Again Networks (BANs), outperform their teachers significantly, both on computer vision and language modeling tasks. Our experiments with BANs based on DenseNets demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-10 (3.5%) and CIFAR-100 (15.5%) datasets, by validation error. Additional experiments explore two distillation objectives: (i) Confidence-Weighted by Teacher Max (CWTM) and (ii) Dark Knowledge with Permuted Predictions (DKPP). Both methods elucidate the essential components of KD, demonstrating the effect of the teacher outputs on both predicted and non-predicted classes.

Test-time reinforcement learning mitigates the reliance on annotated data by using majority voting results as pseudo-labels, emerging as a complementary direction to reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for improving reasoning ability of large language models (LLMs). However, this voting strategy often induces confirmation bias and suffers from sparse rewards, limiting the overall performance. In this work, we propose subgroup-specific step-wise confidence-weighted pseudo-label estimation (SCOPE), a framework integrating model confidence and dynamic subgroup partitioning to address these issues. Specifically, SCOPE integrates the proposed step-wise confidence into pseudo label deduction, prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths over simple frequency count. Furthermore, it dynamically partitions the candidate outputs pool into independent subgroups by balancing reasoning quality against exploration diversity. By deriving local consensus via repeat sampling for each sub group, SCOPE provides diverse supervision targets to encourage broader exploration. We conduct experiments across various models and benchmarks, experimental results show that SCOPE consistently outperforms recent baselines. Notably, SCOPE achieving relative improvements of 13.1% on challenging AIME 2025 and 8.1% on AMC. The code is released at https://github.com/szu-tera/SCOPE.

Consistency learning using input image, feature, or network perturbations has shown remarkable results in semi-supervised semantic segmentation, but this approach can be seriously affected by inaccurate predictions of unlabelled training images. There are two consequences of these inaccurate predictions: 1) the training based on the "strict" cross-entropy (CE) loss can easily overfit prediction mistakes, leading to confirmation bias; and 2) the perturbations applied to these inaccurate predictions will use potentially erroneous predictions as training signals, degrading consistency learning. In this paper, we address the prediction accuracy problem of consistency learning methods with novel extensions of the mean-teacher (MT) model, which include a new auxiliary teacher, and the replacement of MT's mean square error (MSE) by a stricter confidence-weighted cross-entropy (Conf-CE) loss. The accurate prediction by this model allows us to use a challenging combination of network, input data and feature perturbations to improve the consistency learning generalisation, where the feature perturbations consist of a new adversarial perturbation. Results on public benchmarks show that our approach achieves remarkable improvements over the previous SOTA methods in the field. Our code is available at https://github.com/yyliu01/PS-MT.

Recent feed-forward geometry foundation models have demonstrated impressive generalization by recovering depth and poses in a single forward pass. However, these models are typically constrained by a global coordinate frame assumption. This dependency becomes a significant bottleneck for long-context and streaming reconstruction, as it forces the network to maintain an arbitrary temporal origin and handle translation magnitudes that grow unbounded over time. Our solution, which we call R^3, employs relative regression. We employ a lightweight MLP to predict confidence-weighted relative constraints. These confidences serve as a unified anchor: weighting losses during training and guiding pose aggregation during inference. R^3 supports both full-context offline reconstruction and causal, bounded-memory streaming. Our evaluation in both offline and streaming settings validates the effectiveness of our relative mechanism. Project page: https://kevinxu02.github.io/r3-site

The CASTLE Challenge @ EgoVis 2026 evaluates long-form egocentric video question answering over 600+ hours of multi-perspective recordings. Each four-choice question requires evidence from videos, transcripts, auxiliary photos, people, days, rooms, and temporal context. We propose an evidence-aware multimodal reasoning pipeline based on Qwen. Our system parses question hints, retrieves ASR chunks, attaches auxiliary images, samples candidate video frames, and routes questions into static visual, speech/text, temporal, and mixed types with specialized prompts. Multiple inference passes are aggregated by confidence-weighted voting and converted into the official Codabench format. In ablation, LoRA improves the score from 0.21 to 0.50, and more sampled frames further raise it to 0.58. Our final system ranks first in the CASTLE Challenge @ EgoVis 2026.

Deep learning has revolutionized medical imaging, but its effectiveness is severely limited by insufficient labeled training data. This paper introduces a novel GAN-based semi-supervised learning framework specifically designed for low labeled-data regimes, evaluated across settings with 5 to 50 labeled samples per class. Our approach integrates three specialized neural networks -- a generator for class-conditioned image translation, a discriminator for authenticity assessment and classification, and a dedicated classifier -- within a three-phase training framework. The method alternates between supervised training on limited labeled data and unsupervised learning that leverages abundant unlabeled images through image-to-image translation rather than generation from noise. We employ ensemble-based pseudo-labeling that combines confidence-weighted predictions from the discriminator and classifier with temporal consistency through exponential moving averaging, enabling reliable label estimation for unlabeled data. Comprehensive evaluation across eleven MedMNIST datasets demonstrates that our approach achieves statistically significant improvements over six state-of-the-art GAN-based semi-supervised methods, with particularly strong performance in the extreme 5-shot setting where the scarcity of labeled data is most challenging. The framework maintains its superiority across all evaluated settings (5, 10, 20, and 50 shots per class). Our approach offers a practical solution for medical imaging applications where annotation costs are prohibitive, enabling robust classification performance even with minimal labeled data. Code is available at https://github.com/GuidoManni/SPARSE.

Clinicians trace cephalometric radiographs following a structured anatomical workflow, yet no prior system encodes this into computation. We present a five-phase anatomy-guided pipeline producing confidence-weighted spatial priors that shape HRNet-W32 training, achieving 1.04 mm mean radial error on 25 landmarks across 1,502 radiographs from 7+ imaging devices. A training x inference prior matrix isolates the mechanism: anatomical priors maintain a 1% validation-to-test gap versus 88% without priors (1.94 mm), despite identical validation convergence. The matrix establishes that all trained models are inference-independent, the expanded architecture alone provides no benefit, random priors yield partial but unstable improvement (1.72 mm), and only image-specific anatomically correct priors produce the 1.04 mm result -- functioning as a training-time regularizer requiring no automated prior generation at deployment. Five-fold cross-validation (p=0.0015), patient-level permutation testing (p<0.0001, n=151), quantified Grad-CAM analysis (88% vs. 74% in-zone activation, p<0.001), and clinical measurement validation (skeletal classification kappa=0.79-0.84, zero Class II<->III reversals, ICC>0.95) provide converging evidence. Cross-domain experiments on echocardiography, cervical spine, and hand radiography support the hypothesis that prior effectiveness scales with the spatial entropy of the landmark distribution.

We present H-Node Adversarial Noise Cancellation (H-Node ANC), a mechanistic framework that identifies, exploits, and defends hallucination representations in transformer-based large language models (LLMs) at the level of individual hidden-state dimensions. A logistic regression probe trained on last-token hidden states localizes hallucination signal to a small set of high-variance dimensions -- termed Hallucination Nodes (H-Nodes) -- with probe AUC reaching 0.90 across four architectures. A white-box adversarial attack amplifies these dimensions at inference time via a real-time forward hook, achieving a selectivity of 3.02x with less than 10% visibility to the defender. Adaptive ANC defense suppresses H-Node excess in-pass using confidence-weighted cancellation, reducing grounded activation drift by 33-42% over static cancellation. A dynamic iterative extension that re-ranks cancellation targets across successive passes recovers up to 0.69 robustness from a single-pass baseline of 8%. All contributions are validated on OPT-125M, Phi-3-mini-4k-instruct, LLaMA-3-8B-Instruct, and Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.3 (125M-8B parameters). Perplexity impact is surgical (<5%) and MMLU degradation is at most 3%, confirming that the defense does not impair general reasoning capability.

Reliable pelvic bone segmentation (PBS) from CT is essential for robot-assisted pelvic trauma surgery, yet deploying a source-trained model to a new hospital suffers from severe performance degradation due to cross-center domain shifts. While test-time adaptation (TTA) enables online model adaptation without accessing source data, existing methods show limited effectiveness for PBS, facing challenges including boundary degradation, anatomical inconsistency under domain shifts, and voxel-level class imbalance. To address these challenges, we propose a novel closed-loop dynamic Reliability-Guided TTA framework (ReGA) for PBS. Specifically, we introduce a pseudo-label reliability criterion termed Segmentation Inference Consistency Evaluation (SICE), which jointly measures region overlap and boundary deviation via dropout-based ensemble predictions. Based on SICE, a trust-weighted refinement module adaptively updates features to mitigate boundary errors in pseudo-labels. Furthermore, a confidence-weighted region-level contrastive learning strategy is proposed to enforce anatomical consistency. Finally, ReGA follows the teacher-student (TS) scheme to alleviate voxel-level class imbalance. Experiments on three heterogeneous 3D pelvic CT datasets demonstrate that ReGA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TTA methods, enabling effective adaptation of the source-trained PBS model to unseen clinical domains. The code is available at https://github.com/Ren-ling/ReGA.

Uncertain knowledge graphs (UKGs) extend knowledge graphs by assigning each triple a continuous confidence score. Since most possible triples lack observed confidences, recent methods rely on semi-supervised learning to generate pseudo-labels. These methods initialize entity embeddings without using the confidence-weighted graph, discarding its global community and hub structure. We introduce QUEST, which adds no trainable parameters to the standard confidence-distribution learning pipeline. First, QUEST initializes entity embeddings using the smallest non-trivial eigenvectors of the confidence-weighted graph Laplacian, incorporating community and hub structure before training. Second, QUEST applies an unbiased mini-batch Dirichlet energy regularizer to enforce early-stage structural consistency. On two UKG datasets, QUEST improves confidence prediction and link prediction on six of eight metric-dataset pairs over prior methods and matches the previous best on the remaining two, while removing the instability spike observed on dense graphs. These results indicate that spectral structural priors combined with a graph Dirichlet energy regularizer improve accuracy, training stability, and checkpoint reliability in UKG completion.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

Recent advancements in neural visual geometry, including transformer-based models such as VGGT and Pi3, have achieved impressive accuracy on 3D reconstruction tasks. However, their reliance on full attention makes them fundamentally limited by GPU memory capacity, preventing them from scaling to large, unordered image collections. We introduce MERG3R, a training-free divide-and-conquer framework that enables geometric foundation models to operate far beyond their native memory limits. MERG3R first reorders and partitions unordered images into overlapping, geometrically diverse subsets that can be reconstructed independently. It then merges the resulting local reconstructions through an efficient global alignment and confidence-weighted bundle adjustment procedure, producing a globally consistent 3D model. Our framework is model-agnostic and can be paired with existing neural geometry models. Across large-scale datasets, including 7-Scenes, NRGBD, Tanks & Temples, and Cambridge Landmarks, MERG3R consistently improves reconstruction accuracy, memory efficiency, and scalability, enabling high-quality reconstruction when the dataset exceeds memory capacity limits.

Predicting real-world events from live market signals demands systems that fuse qualitative news with quantitative order-book dynamics under strict temporal discipline -- a challenge existing benchmarks fail to capture. We present PolyBench, a multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket that records point-in-time cross-sections of 38,666 binary prediction markets spanning 4,997 events, synchronously coupling each snapshot with a Central Limit Order Book (CLOB) state and a real-time news stream. Using PolyBench, we evaluate seven state-of-the-art Large Language Models -- spanning open- and closed-source families -- generating 36,165 predictions under identical, timestamp-locked market states collected between February 6 and 12, 2026. Our multidimensional framework assesses directional accuracy, our proposed Confidence-Weighted Return (CWR), Annualized Percentage Yield (APY), and Sharpe ratio via realistic order-book execution simulation. The results reveal a pronounced performance divergence: only two of seven models achieve positive financial returns -- MiMo-V2-Flash at 17.6% CWR and Gemini-3-Flash at 6.2% CWR -- while the remaining five incur losses despite uniformly high stated confidence. These findings highlight the gap between surface-level language fluency and genuine probabilistic reasoning under live market uncertainty, and establish PolyBench as a contamination-proof, financially-grounded evaluation standard for future LLM research. Our dataset and code available at \href{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench{https://github.com/PolyBench/PolyBench}}.

Language models gain accuracy from more compute at test time, but majority voting over independent samples saturates: as samples grow, the vote converges to the model's most frequent answer. Communication can add what sampling cannot: an agent that solves a problem can pass the key step to the others. We present TalkMesh, a decentralized mesh of small language model agents that learns when and what to communicate. Each agent samples a proposal and scores it with a trained confidence head. The most confident agent broadcasts a hint; agents below a confidence threshold revise, keeping each revision that outscores its proposal. Gossip consensus approximates the vote weighted by confidence without a coordinator. A talk policy, trained with group relative policy optimization on the change in correctness after revision, writes hints and revisions. With three agents, which together generate at most six outputs, the mesh reaches the accuracy of majority voting over 32 samples with each of three models. Trained with at most 8 agents and evaluated with 32, it raises accuracy from 0.568 under self-consistency to 0.705 (Qwen3.5-0.8B, GSM8K) and from 0.492 to 0.722 (SmolLM3-3B, MATH-500). When 4 of 8 agents collude on a wrong answer with fabricated confidence and poisoned hints, majority vote accuracy falls to 0.000 (Qwen3.5-0.8B, GSM8K). A defended mesh, whose agents rescore solutions with their own confidence heads, retains 0.507. Across reasoning, embodied coordination, and traffic signal control, messages improve a decision when the acting agent cannot observe the information it requires and another agent can send it.

We aim to improve the performance of regressing hand keypoints and segmenting pixel-level hand masks under new imaging conditions (e.g., outdoors) when we only have labeled images taken under very different conditions (e.g., indoors). In the real world, it is important that the model trained for both tasks works under various imaging conditions. However, their variation covered by existing labeled hand datasets is limited. Thus, it is necessary to adapt the model trained on the labeled images (source) to unlabeled images (target) with unseen imaging conditions. While self-training domain adaptation methods (i.e., learning from the unlabeled target images in a self-supervised manner) have been developed for both tasks, their training may degrade performance when the predictions on the target images are noisy. To avoid this, it is crucial to assign a low importance (confidence) weight to the noisy predictions during self-training. In this paper, we propose to utilize the divergence of two predictions to estimate the confidence of the target image for both tasks. These predictions are given from two separate networks, and their divergence helps identify the noisy predictions. To integrate our proposed confidence estimation into self-training, we propose a teacher-student framework where the two networks (teachers) provide supervision to a network (student) for self-training, and the teachers are learned from the student by knowledge distillation. Our experiments show its superiority over state-of-the-art methods in adaptation settings with different lighting, grasping objects, backgrounds, and camera viewpoints. Our method improves by 4% the multi-task score on HO3D compared to the latest adversarial adaptation method. We also validate our method on Ego4D, egocentric videos with rapid changes in imaging conditions outdoors.

Recently, many arbitrary-oriented object detection (AOOD) methods have been proposed and attracted widespread attention in many fields. However, most of them are based on anchor-boxes or standard Gaussian heatmaps. Such label assignment strategy may not only fail to reflect the shape and direction characteristics of arbitrary-oriented objects, but also have high parameter-tuning efforts. In this paper, a novel AOOD method called General Gaussian Heatmap Label Assignment (GGHL) is proposed. Specifically, an anchor-free object-adaptation label assignment (OLA) strategy is presented to define the positive candidates based on two-dimensional (2-D) oriented Gaussian heatmaps, which reflect the shape and direction features of arbitrary-oriented objects. Based on OLA, an oriented-bounding-box (OBB) representation component (ORC) is developed to indicate OBBs and adjust the Gaussian center prior weights to fit the characteristics of different objects adaptively through neural network learning. Moreover, a joint-optimization loss (JOL) with area normalization and dynamic confidence weighting is designed to refine the misalign optimal results of different subtasks. Extensive experiments on public datasets demonstrate that the proposed GGHL improves the AOOD performance with low parameter-tuning and time costs. Furthermore, it is generally applicable to most AOOD methods to improve their performance including lightweight models on embedded platforms.

Human-computer interaction has long imagined technology that understands us-from our preferences and habits, to the timing and purpose of our everyday actions. Yet current user models remain fragmented, narrowly tailored to specific apps, and incapable of the flexible reasoning required to fulfill these visions. This paper presents an architecture for a general user model (GUM) that learns about you by observing any interaction you have with your computer. The GUM takes as input any unstructured observation of a user (e.g., device screenshots) and constructs confidence-weighted propositions that capture that user knowledge and preferences. GUMs can infer that a user is preparing for a wedding they're attending from messages with a friend. Or recognize that a user is struggling with a collaborator's feedback on a draft by observing multiple stalled edits and a switch to reading related work. GUMs introduce an architecture that infers new propositions about a user from multimodal observations, retrieves related propositions for context, and continuously revises existing propositions. To illustrate the breadth of applications that GUMs enable, we demonstrate how they augment chat-based assistants with context, manage OS notifications to selectively surface important information, and enable interactive agents that adapt to preferences across apps. We also instantiate proactive assistants (GUMBOs) that discover and execute useful suggestions on a user's behalf using their GUM. In our evaluations, we find that GUMs make calibrated and accurate inferences about users, and that assistants built on GUMs proactively identify and perform actions that users wouldn't think to request explicitly. Altogether, GUMs introduce methods that leverage multimodal models to understand unstructured context, enabling long-standing visions of HCI and entirely new interactive systems that anticipate user needs.

When language models (LMs) are trained via reinforcement learning (RL) to generate natural language "reasoning chains", their performance improves on a variety of difficult question answering tasks. Today, almost all successful applications of RL for reasoning use binary reward functions that evaluate the correctness of LM outputs. Because such reward functions do not penalize guessing or low-confidence outputs, they often have the unintended side-effect of degrading calibration and increasing the rate at which LMs generate incorrect responses (or "hallucinate") in other problem domains. This paper describes RLCR (Reinforcement Learning with Calibration Rewards), an approach to training reasoning models that jointly improves accuracy and calibrated confidence estimation. During RLCR, LMs generate both predictions and numerical confidence estimates after reasoning. They are trained to optimize a reward function that augments a binary correctness score with a Brier score -- a scoring rule for confidence estimates that incentivizes calibrated prediction. We first prove that this reward function (or any analogous reward function that uses a bounded, proper scoring rule) yields models whose predictions are both accurate and well-calibrated. We next show that across diverse datasets, RLCR substantially improves calibration with no loss in accuracy, on both in-domain and out-of-domain evaluations -- outperforming both ordinary RL training and classifiers trained to assign post-hoc confidence scores. While ordinary RL hurts calibration, RLCR improves it. Finally, we demonstrate that verbalized confidence can be leveraged at test time to improve accuracy and calibration via confidence-weighted scaling methods. Our results show that explicitly optimizing for calibration can produce more generally reliable reasoning models.

In this paper, we introduce UniSent universal sentiment lexica for 1000+ languages. Sentiment lexica are vital for sentiment analysis in absence of document-level annotations, a very common scenario for low-resource languages. To the best of our knowledge, UniSent is the largest sentiment resource to date in terms of the number of covered languages, including many low resource ones. In this work, we use a massively parallel Bible corpus to project sentiment information from English to other languages for sentiment analysis on Twitter data. We introduce a method called DomDrift to mitigate the huge domain mismatch between Bible and Twitter by a confidence weighting scheme that uses domain-specific embeddings to compare the nearest neighbors for a candidate sentiment word in the source (Bible) and target (Twitter) domain. We evaluate the quality of UniSent in a subset of languages for which manually created ground truth was available, Macedonian, Czech, German, Spanish, and French. We show that the quality of UniSent is comparable to manually created sentiment resources when it is used as the sentiment seed for the task of word sentiment prediction on top of embedding representations. In addition, we show that emoticon sentiments could be reliably predicted in the Twitter domain using only UniSent and monolingual embeddings in German, Spanish, French, and Italian. With the publication of this paper, we release the UniSent sentiment lexica.

Training-free open-vocabulary semantic segmentation (OVSS) promises rapid adaptation to new label sets without retraining. Yet, many methods rely on heavy post-processing or handle text and vision in isolation, leaving cross-modal geometry underutilized. Others introduce auxiliary vision backbones or multi-model pipelines, which increase complexity and latency while compromising design simplicity. We present PEARL, \underline{P}rocrust\underline{e}s \underline{a}lignment with text-awa\underline{r}e \underline{L}aplacian propagation, a compact two-step inference that follows an align-then-propagate principle. The Procrustes alignment step performs an orthogonal projection inside the last self-attention block, rotating keys toward the query subspace via a stable polar iteration. The text-aware Laplacian propagation then refines per-pixel logits on a small grid through a confidence-weighted, text-guided graph solve: text provides both a data-trust signal and neighbor gating, while image gradients preserve boundaries. In this work, our method is fully training-free, plug-and-play, and uses only fixed constants, adding minimal latency with a small per-head projection and a few conjugate-gradient steps. Our approach, PEARL, sets a new state-of-the-art in training-free OVSS without extra data or auxiliary backbones across standard benchmarks, achieving superior performance under both with-background and without-background protocols.

Manipulation understanding requires reliable relational evidence, such as contact, support, containment, motion coupling, grasp, release, and active-hand involvement. Although these visual predicates are widely used in event-chain, graph-based, and neuro-symbolic models, their reliability under visual degradation is rarely analyzed directly. This paper introduces a predicate-level reliability framework for robust manipulation understanding under blur, occlusion, illumination change, low resolution, frame dropping, and detection noise. The framework defines a structured predicate vocabulary, confidence-aware predicate estimation, and reliability metrics for predicate preservation, degradation sensitivity, temporal consistency, confidence-weighted stability, and downstream impact. Experiments on controlled manipulation videos and public egocentric or bimanual datasets, including VISOR/EPIC-KITCHENS, H2O, and ARCTIC, show that predicate failures are structured rather than uniform. Static spatial predicates remain comparatively robust, whereas contact-sensitive, dynamic, and derived predicates such as grasp and release are more fragile. Under severe degradation, detection noise, occlusion, and frame dropping cause the strongest reliability losses. Downstream analysis shows that degraded predicates reduce manipulation-understanding accuracy from 0.89 to 0.58, while removing confidence weighting under moderate degradation reduces accuracy from 0.74 to 0.64. These results show that predicate reliability provides a diagnostic layer between visual perception and structured manipulation reasoning.

Large Language Models frequently generate fluent but factually incorrect text. We propose Adaptive Activation Cancellation (AAC), a real-time inference-time framework that treats hallucination-associated neural activations as structured interference within the transformer residual stream, drawing an explicit analogy to classical adaptive noise cancellation from signal processing. The framework identifies Hallucination Nodes (H-Nodes) via layer-wise linear probing and suppresses them using a confidence-weighted forward hook during auto-regressive generation -- requiring no external knowledge, no fine-tuning, and no additional inference passes. Evaluated across OPT-125M, Phi-3-mini, and LLaMA 3-8B on TruthfulQA and HaluEval, the real-time hook is the only intervention that consistently improves downstream accuracy on all three scales. Critically, the method is strictly surgical: WikiText-103 perplexity and MMLU reasoning accuracy are preserved at exactly 0.0% degradation across all three model scales, a property that distinguishes AAC from interventions that trade fluency or general capability for factual improvement. On the LLaMA 3-8B scale, the hook additionally yields positive generation-level gains (MC1 +0.04; MC2 +0.003; Token-F1 +0.003) while achieving probe-space selectivity 5.94x - 3.5x higher than the ITI baseline -- demonstrating that targeted neuron-level suppression can simultaneously improve factual accuracy and preserve model capability.

Medical image segmenters often get worse when sites, scanner vendors, or protocols change. Continual test-time adaptation (CTTA) addresses this problem without target labels, but it can be impossible to update a model on a non-stationary stream and can lead to a lot of errors. We examine a more reasonable and meaningful alternative: parameter-frozen inference enhancement(PIE). We use a source-trained segmenter that learns about anatomy-preserving scale and flip views, maps their predictions back to the native location, and averages the probabilities. We do not modify the weights of the model or the normalization statistics. On a cardiac MRI stream from M\&Ms, which is trained on vendor A and evaluated sequentially on vendors B, C, and D, PIE has 0.7786 mean Dice, compared to 0.7680 for source-only inference and 0.7388--0.7416 for five other online-adaptation baselines. The controlled ablations show that performance saturates at 28 views, and confidence weighting, class-prior correction, connected-component filtering, morphological refinement, and inter-slice smoothing have no effect or cause negative transfer. Qualitative results on cardiac MRI and fundus images are also consistent with the frozen ensemble keeping thinner and nested anatomical structures. These results provide a strong, stable baseline for medical CTTA and expose an important failure mode: adaptation and handcrafted refinement can be less reliable than carefully designed inference.

Large Language Models (LLMs) still struggle with complex reasoning tasks. Motivated by the society of minds (Minsky, 1988), we propose ReConcile, a multi-model multi-agent framework designed as a round table conference among diverse LLM agents to foster diverse thoughts and discussion for improved consensus. ReConcile enhances the reasoning capabilities of LLMs by holding multiple rounds of discussion, learning to convince other agents to improve their answers, and employing a confidence-weighted voting mechanism. In each round, ReConcile initiates discussion between agents via a 'discussion prompt' that consists of (a) grouped answers and explanations generated by each agent in the previous round, (b) their uncertainties, and (c) demonstrations of answer-rectifying human explanations, used for convincing other agents. This discussion prompt enables each agent to revise their responses in light of insights from other agents. Once a consensus is reached and the discussion ends, ReConcile determines the final answer by leveraging the confidence of each agent in a weighted voting scheme. We implement ReConcile with ChatGPT, Bard, and Claude2 as the three agents. Our experimental results on various benchmarks demonstrate that ReConcile significantly enhances the reasoning performance of the agents (both individually and as a team), surpassing prior single-agent and multi-agent baselines by 7.7% and also outperforming GPT-4 on some of these datasets. We also experiment with GPT-4 itself as one of the agents in ReConcile and demonstrate that its initial performance also improves by absolute 10.0% through discussion and feedback from other agents. Finally, we also analyze the accuracy after every round and observe that ReConcile achieves better and faster consensus between agents, compared to a multi-agent debate baseline. Our code is available at: https://github.com/dinobby/ReConcile

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) assigns a single scalar advantage to all tokens in a completion. For structured generations with explicit segments and objectives, this couples unrelated reward signals across segments, leading to objective interference and misattributed credit. We propose Blockwise Advantage Estimation, a family of GRPO-compatible methods that assigns each objective its own advantage and applies it only to the tokens in the corresponding text block, reducing reliance on hand-designed scalar rewards and scaling naturally to additional objectives. A key challenge is estimating advantages for later blocks whose rewards are conditioned on sampled prefixes; standard unbiased approaches require expensive nested rollouts from intermediate states. Concretely, we introduce an Outcome-Conditioned Baseline that approximates intermediate state values using only within-group statistics by stratifying samples according to a prefix-derived intermediate outcome. On math tasks with uncertainty estimation, our method mitigates reward interference, is competitive with a state-of-the-art reward-designed approach, and preserves test-time gains from confidence-weighted ensembling. More broadly, it provides a modular recipe for optimizing sequential objectives in structured generations without additional rollouts.

We present a novel large-scale dataset and comprehensive baselines for end-to-end pedestrian detection and person recognition in raw video frames. Our baselines address three issues: the performance of various combinations of detectors and recognizers, mechanisms for pedestrian detection to help improve overall re-identification accuracy and assessing the effectiveness of different detectors for re-identification. We make three distinct contributions. First, a new dataset, PRW, is introduced to evaluate Person Re-identification in the Wild, using videos acquired through six synchronized cameras. It contains 932 identities and 11,816 frames in which pedestrians are annotated with their bounding box positions and identities. Extensive benchmarking results are presented on this dataset. Second, we show that pedestrian detection aids re-identification through two simple yet effective improvements: a discriminatively trained ID-discriminative Embedding (IDE) in the person subspace using convolutional neural network (CNN) features and a Confidence Weighted Similarity (CWS) metric that incorporates detection scores into similarity measurement. Third, we derive insights in evaluating detector performance for the particular scenario of accurate person re-identification.

Zero-shot anomaly detection aims to detect and localise abnormal regions in the image without access to any in-domain training images. While recent approaches leverage vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP, to transfer high-level concept knowledge, methods based on purely vision foundation models (VFMs), like DINOv2, have lagged behind in performance. We argue that this gap stems from two practical issues: (i) limited diversity in existing auxiliary anomaly detection datasets and (ii) overly shallow VFM adaptation strategies. To address both challenges, we propose AnomalyVFM, a general and effective framework that turns any pretrained VFM into a strong zero-shot anomaly detector. Our approach combines a robust three-stage synthetic dataset generation scheme with a parameter-efficient adaptation mechanism, utilising low-rank feature adapters and a confidence-weighted pixel loss. Together, these components enable modern VFMs to substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods. More specifically, with RADIO as a backbone, AnomalyVFM achieves an average image-level AUROC of 94.1% across 9 diverse datasets, surpassing previous methods by significant 3.3 percentage points. Project Page: https://maticfuc.github.io/anomaly_vfm/

Gaussian Splatting has achieved remarkable progress in multi-view surface reconstruction, yet it exhibits notable degradation when only few views are available. Although recent efforts alleviate this issue by enhancing multi-view consistency to produce plausible surfaces, they struggle to infer unseen, occluded, or weakly constrained regions beyond the input coverage. To address this limitation, we present VidSplat, a training-free generative reconstruction framework that leverages powerful video diffusion priors to iteratively synthesize novel views that compensate for missing input coverage, and thereby recover complete 3D scenes from sparse inputs. Specifically, we tackle two key challenges that enable the effective integration of generation and reconstruction. First, for 3D consistent generation, we elaborate a training-free, stage-wise denoising strategy that adaptively guides the denoising direction toward the underlying geometry using the rendered RGB and mask images. Second, to enhance the reconstruction, we develop an iterative mechanism that samples camera trajectories, explores unobserved regions, synthesizes novel views, and supplements training through confidence weighted refinement. VidSplat performs robustly to sparse input and even a single image. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate our superior performance in sparse-view scene reconstruction.

Agent harnesses have become the operational infrastructure of modern large language model agents, coordinating context, tools, verification, and execution control to translate latent model capability into reliable long-horizon behavior. However, reliable long-horizon behavior requires harness control to adapt to task demands, execution environments, and evolving execution states, whereas current harnesses predominantly rely on hand-crafted or globally fixed policies; this mismatch manifests as unnecessary computational overhead and, in adverse cases, reduced task success. To address this limitation, we formulate the task of enabling adaptive orchestration in harness systems as a causal learning problem and propose Counterfactual Harness Intervention Learning for Long-Horizon Agents (CHILL-Harness). CHILL-Harness intervenes at the orchestration layer to enable advantage-guided workflow adaptation, thereby improving reasoning and execution efficiency while preserving task performance. Specifically, we develop causal intervention effect learning as the effect-estimation component of CHILL-Harness to estimate intervention-relative workflow advantage from confidence-weighted execution evidence and identify advantageous workflow adaptations. We further introduce advantage-realizing causal orchestration as its realization component to adaptively allocate counterfactual reasoning and realize only workflow adjustments supported by sufficient expected advantage. Finally, we incorporate a success-preserving objective and advantage-margin authorization constraints into CHILL-Harness to promote reliable adaptation. Extensive experiments on heterogeneous long-horizon tasks spanning information seeking, software engineering, and terminal interaction show that CHILL-Harness consistently preserves or improves task success while substantially reducing token consumption and execution time.

Context-aware machine translation can expose the evidence needed for pronoun choice, but standard fine-tuning does not explicitly prioritize these sparse discourse-sensitive decisions. We study ProNMT, a reward-guided iterative self-training method that combines sentence-level quality estimation with a signed confidence signal at generated pronoun positions. For each current sentence and its preceding source context, ProNMT samples candidate translations, scores them using reference-free quality estimation together with a reference-derived pronoun label, and fine-tunes on the highest-scoring candidate. On filtered English--German Europarl and English--French News Commentary data, ProNMT improves over context-aware supervised fine-tuning on BLEU and COMET. Ablations show that pronoun-only feedback can severely degrade sentence-level translation quality on these pronoun-focused data, while hard binary feedback underperforms confidence-weighted feedback. These results indicate that targeted linguistic feedback is most useful when combined with both a global quality signal and the context relevant to the targeted decision. We make the code publicly available at https://github.com/Harshit2807161/ProNMT.

Video world models require persistent scene memory to maintain consistency during long-horizon video generation. Existing spatial memories accumulate RGB observations or latent features, increasing storage requirements as generation proceeds. We introduce Honeycomb, a video world model built on HexMemory, our proposed low-rank representation for storing scene features in a fixed-size memory with a total of six spatial and spatiotemporal planes. A feed-forward writer maps each generated chunk into new plane features. As the spatial coverage or temporal range expands, we warp the previous planes while preserving their dimensions, then fuse them with the new features through confidence-weighted pooling and a learned residual correction. A reader retrieves latents from HexMemory to condition subsequent video generation. The writer processes only observations from the new chunk, avoiding per-scene optimization and repeated processing of the full history. Experiments on WorldScore and RealEstate10K demonstrate strong video generation quality and robust revisit consistency while keeping HexMemory feature storage constant throughout generation. Code and additional visualizations are available on our project page at https://jackswl.github.io/honeycomb/.

3D scene inpainting aims to recover missing or occluded regions in edited 3D scenes, while ensuring geometric and textural consistency. Existing approaches, however, typically require accurately calibrated camera poses, which restricts their applicability in casual, in-the-wild scenarios and introduces additional preprocessing overhead. To overcome this limitation, we present FreeInpaint, a novel feed-forward framework that generates complete and 3D-consistent scenes directly from unposed multi-view images with masked regions. At its core, FreeInpaint extends a 3D foundation model to propagate masked regions from a reference view to other unposed views, bridging 3D reconstruction and scene inpainting while preserving the model's native ability to recover camera poses and scene geometry. Our method addresses two key challenges in adapting feed-forward 3D foundation models to masked inputs. First, masked regions can corrupt cross-view correspondence reasoning, degrading pose estimation and geometry recovery. To address this, we introduce a Learnable Mask Attention mechanism that preserves the spatial anchoring of reliable observations while allowing masked regions to progressively absorb useful context in deeper layers. Second, under severe occlusions, a single forward pass often lacks sufficient appearance evidence for high-fidelity completion. Therefore, we propose a Support Token Refinement strategy, which injects diffusion-generated support evidence as confidence-weighted auxiliary tokens to refine under-observed regions while preserving the original spatial anchor. Extensive experiments across diverse datasets demonstrate that FreeInpaint achieves superior inpainting quality, eliminating the reliance on pre-computed camera poses while keeping a fast inference speed. The project page is https://rorisis.github.io/FreeInpaint/.

Time series classification (TSC) spans diverse application scenarios, yet labeled data are often scarce, making task-specific training costly and inflexible. Recent reasoning-oriented large language models (LLMs) show promise in understanding temporal patterns, but purely zero-shot usage remains suboptimal. We propose FETA, a multi-agent framework for training-free TSC via exemplar-based in-context reasoning. FETA decomposes a multivariate series into channel-wise subproblems, retrieves a few structurally similar labeled examples for each channel, and leverages a reasoning LLM to compare the query against these exemplars, producing channel-level labels with self-assessed confidences; a confidence-weighted aggregator then fuses all channel decisions. This design eliminates the need for pretraining or fine-tuning, improves efficiency by pruning irrelevant channels and controlling input length, and enhances interpretability through exemplar grounding and confidence estimation. On nine challenging UEA datasets, FETA achieves strong accuracy under a fully training-free setting, surpassing multiple trained baselines. These results demonstrate that a multi-agent in-context reasoning framework can transform LLMs into competitive, plug-and-play TSC solvers without any parameter training. The code is available at https://github.com/SongyuanSui/FETATSC.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

Confidence-based loss weighting is usually avoided in generative models because it accelerates errors when the model is confidently wrong, but this intuition breaks down in supervised diffusion training. We introduce the Eisbach log-barrier, a parameter-free weight derived from the entropy of the DiT output's spatial energy distribution: high entropy damps the gradient, while low entropy preserves it. Applied to LoRA fine-tuning of Stable Audio 3 Medium on MusicCaps, it unexpectedly yields stronger thematic development, clearer acoustic differentiation, and higher textural diversity than unweighted training, the opposite of mode collapse. This works because in supervised diffusion the gradient direction is locked to ground truth, so confidence only scales the step size, and because temporal entropy downweights flat samples while preserving high-contrast ones. The result is an online, self-referential data curriculum that emerges purely from the forward pass, with analyzed noise-level dynamics and testable predictions.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM may be unreliable. Depending on whether an answer is trustworthy, a system can then choose to route the question to another expert, or otherwise fall back on a safe default behavior. In this work, we study the extent to which LLMs can reliably indicate confidence in their answers, and how this notion of confidence can translate into downstream accuracy gains. We propose Self-REF, a lightweight training strategy to teach LLMs to express confidence in whether their answers are correct in a reliable manner. Self-REF introduces confidence tokens into the LLM, from which a confidence score can be extracted. Compared to conventional approaches such as verbalizing confidence and examining token probabilities, we demonstrate empirically that confidence tokens show significant improvements in downstream routing and rejection learning tasks.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, with different models excelling in distinct domains and specific abilities. Effectively combining the predictions of multiple LLMs is crucial for enhancing system robustness and performance. However, existing ensemble methods often rely on simple techniques like voting or logits ensembling, which overlook the varying confidence and reliability of models in different contexts. In this work, we propose LENS (Learning ENsemble confidence from Neural States), a novel approach that learns to estimate model confidence by analyzing internal representations. For each LLM, we train a lightweight linear confidence predictor that leverages layer-wise hidden states and normalized probabilities as inputs. This allows for more nuanced weighting of model predictions based on their context-dependent reliability. Our method does not require modifying the model parameters and requires negligible additional computation. Experimental results on multiple-choice and boolean question-answering tasks demonstrate that LENS outperforms traditional ensemble methods by a substantial margin. Our findings suggest that internal representations provide valuable signals for determining model confidence and can be effectively leveraged for ensemble learning.

This work investigates Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA), where a model adapts to a target domain without access to source data. A new augmentation technique, Shuffle PatchMix (SPM), and a novel reweighting strategy are introduced to enhance performance. SPM shuffles and blends image patches to generate diverse and challenging augmentations, while the reweighting strategy prioritizes reliable pseudo-labels to mitigate label noise. These techniques are particularly effective on smaller datasets like PACS, where overfitting and pseudo-label noise pose greater risks. State-of-the-art results are achieved on three major benchmarks: PACS, VisDA-C, and DomainNet-126. Notably, on PACS, improvements of 7.3% (79.4% to 86.7%) and 7.2% are observed in single-target and multi-target settings, respectively, while gains of 2.8% and 0.7% are attained on DomainNet-126 and VisDA-C. This combination of advanced augmentation and robust pseudo-label reweighting establishes a new benchmark for SFDA. The code is available at: https://github.com/PrasannaPulakurthi/SPM

Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information or model fine-tuning, have become less suitable for LLMs, especially closed-source commercial APIs. This leads to a growing need to explore the untapped area of black-box approaches for LLM uncertainty estimation. To better break down the problem, we define a systematic framework with three components: prompting strategies for eliciting verbalized confidence, sampling methods for generating multiple responses, and aggregation techniques for computing consistency. We then benchmark these methods on two key tasks-confidence calibration and failure prediction-across five types of datasets (e.g., commonsense and arithmetic reasoning) and five widely-used LLMs including GPT-4 and LLaMA 2 Chat. Our analysis uncovers several key insights: 1) LLMs, when verbalizing their confidence, tend to be overconfident, potentially imitating human patterns of expressing confidence. 2) As model capability scales up, both calibration and failure prediction performance improve. 3) Employing our proposed strategies, such as human-inspired prompts, consistency among multiple responses, and better aggregation strategies can help mitigate this overconfidence from various perspectives. 4) Comparisons with white-box methods indicate that while white-box methods perform better, the gap is narrow, e.g., 0.522 to 0.605 in AUROC. Despite these advancements, none of these techniques consistently outperform others, and all investigated methods struggle in challenging tasks, such as those requiring professional knowledge, indicating significant scope for improvement. We believe this study can serve as a strong baseline and provide insights for eliciting confidence in black-box LLMs.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

Learning exists in the context of data, yet notions of confidence typically focus on model predictions, not label quality. Confident learning (CL) is an alternative approach which focuses instead on label quality by characterizing and identifying label errors in datasets, based on the principles of pruning noisy data, counting with probabilistic thresholds to estimate noise, and ranking examples to train with confidence. Whereas numerous studies have developed these principles independently, here, we combine them, building on the assumption of a class-conditional noise process to directly estimate the joint distribution between noisy (given) labels and uncorrupted (unknown) labels. This results in a generalized CL which is provably consistent and experimentally performant. We present sufficient conditions where CL exactly finds label errors, and show CL performance exceeding seven recent competitive approaches for learning with noisy labels on the CIFAR dataset. Uniquely, the CL framework is not coupled to a specific data modality or model (e.g., we use CL to find several label errors in the presumed error-free MNIST dataset and improve sentiment classification on text data in Amazon Reviews). We also employ CL on ImageNet to quantify ontological class overlap (e.g., estimating 645 "missile" images are mislabeled as their parent class "projectile"), and moderately increase model accuracy (e.g., for ResNet) by cleaning data prior to training. These results are replicable using the open-source cleanlab release.

Reliable confidence estimation is increasingly central to the trustworthy deployment of language models: a calibrated estimate of the probability that an output is correct decides what to ship, what to escalate, and what to retry. Existing confidence estimators, however, share one design premise: they only read the current inference process, either by introspecting on it, scoring its token probabilities, or resampling it. We argue that the current inference is not a sufficient basis for confidence. We propose XConf (eXperiential Confidence): estimating confidence together with the model's accumulated experience. The experience is stored as a record of the model's own graded past episodes, each holding the task, the model's reflection, its stated confidence, the outcome, and a lesson written once the grade arrived. Given a new task, XConf's Recall stage retrieves past episodes on similar tasks met with a similar stated confidence, and reads off their historical success rate; its Reflect stage shows the model this record, has it name its recurring failure mode, and restate a confidence now informed by its own track records. Our estimator is format-general, requiring no logit access or weight updates, and costs only one answer generation. Across nine benchmarks spanning reasoning, coding, multimodal QA, and interactive agents, and four models from three families, XConf beats or matches ten-sample self-consistency in discrimination (AUROC) on 23 of 24 comparisons, with much lower calibration error (ECE), at a tenth of the generation cost. Used for selective prediction, abstaining on the 10% least-confident episodes raises the delivered success rate by up to 8.7 points on agent tasks. We therefore see experiential confidence estimation as a new paradigm for future general-purpose confidence estimation.

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it correlates with accuracy. Confidence is measured (i) qualitatively in terms of persistence in keeping their answer when prompted to reconsider, and (ii) quantitatively in terms of self-reported confidence score. We investigate the performance of three LLMs -- GPT4o, GPT4-turbo and Mistral -- on two benchmark sets of questions on causal judgement and formal fallacies and a set of probability and statistical puzzles and paradoxes. Although the LLMs show significantly better performance than random guessing, there is a wide variability in their tendency to change their initial answers. There is a positive correlation between qualitative confidence and accuracy, but the overall accuracy for the second answer is often worse than for the first answer. There is a strong tendency to overstate the self-reported confidence score. Confidence is only partially explained by the underlying token-level probability. The material effects of prompting on qualitative confidence and the strong tendency for overconfidence indicate that current LLMs do not have any internally coherent sense of confidence.

Model evolution and constant availability of data are two common phenomena in large-scale real-world machine learning applications, e.g. ads and recommendation systems. To adapt, the real-world system typically retrain with all available data and online learn with recently available data to update the models periodically with the goal of better serving performance. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, named Confidence Ranking, which designs the optimization objective as a ranking function with two different models. Our confidence ranking loss allows direct optimization of the logits output for different convex surrogate functions of metrics, e.g. AUC and Accuracy depending on the target task and dataset. Armed with our proposed methods, our experiments show that the introduction of confidence ranking loss can outperform all baselines on the CTR prediction tasks of public and industrial datasets. This framework has been deployed in the advertisement system of JD.com to serve the main traffic in the fine-rank stage.

Large language models (LLMs) can increase users' perceived trust by verbalizing confidence in their outputs. However, prior work has shown that LLMs are often overconfident, making their stated confidence unreliable since it does not consistently align with factual accuracy. To better understand the sources of this verbalized confidence, we introduce TracVC (Tracing Verbalized Confidence), a method that builds on information retrieval and influence estimation to trace generated confidence expressions back to the training data. We evaluate TracVC on OLMo and Llama models in a question answering setting, proposing a new metric, content groundness, which measures the extent to which an LLM grounds its confidence in content-related training examples (relevant to the question and answer) versus in generic examples of confidence verbalization. Our analysis reveals that OLMo2-13B is frequently influenced by confidence-related data that is lexically unrelated to the query, suggesting that it may mimic superficial linguistic expressions of certainty rather than rely on genuine content grounding. These findings point to a fundamental limitation in current training regimes: LLMs may learn how to sound confident without learning when confidence is justified. Our analysis provides a foundation for improving LLMs' trustworthiness in expressing more reliable confidence.

While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks, they fundamentally lack self-awareness and frequently exhibit overconfidence, assigning high confidence scores to incorrect predictions. Accurate confidence estimation is therefore critical for enhancing the trustworthiness and reliability of LLM-generated outputs. However, existing approaches suffer from coarse-grained scoring mechanisms that fail to provide fine-grained, continuous confidence estimates throughout the generation process. To address these limitations, we introduce FineCE, a novel confidence estimation method that delivers accurate, fine-grained confidence scores during text generation. Specifically, we first develop a comprehensive pipeline for constructing training data that effectively captures the underlying probabilistic distribution of LLM responses, and then train a model to predict confidence scores for arbitrary text sequences in a supervised manner. Furthermore, we propose a Backward Confidence Integration (BCI) strategy that leverages information from the subsequent text to enhance confidence estimation for the current sequence during inference. We also introduce three strategies for identifying optimal positions to perform confidence estimation within the generation process. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that FineCE consistently outperforms existing classical confidence estimation methods. Our code and all baselines used in the paper are available on GitHub.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face practical barriers: logits are often hidden, multi-sampling is computationally expensive, and verbalized numerical uncertainty (e.g., giving a 0-100 score) deviates from natural communication. We revisit linguistic confidence (LC), where models express uncertainty through hedging language (e.g., probably, might), offering a lightweight and human-centered alternative. To advance this direction, we (1) release the first diverse, large-scale dataset of hedging expressions with human-annotated confidence scores, and (2) propose a lightweight mapper that converts hedges into confidence scores at near-zero cost. Building on these resources, we (3) conduct the first systematic study of LC across modern LLMs and QA benchmarks, revealing that while most LLMs underperform in expressing reliable LC, carefully designed prompting achieves competitive calibration and discriminability. Finally, we (4) introduce a fine-tuning framework that further improves LC reliability. Taken together, our work positions linguistic confidence as a scalable, efficient, and human-aligned approach to LLM uncertainty estimation, and calls for deeper exploration of this promising yet underexplored direction.

We study the tradeoff between computational effort and classification accuracy in a cascade of deep neural networks. During inference, the user sets the acceptable accuracy degradation which then automatically determines confidence thresholds for the intermediate classifiers. As soon as the confidence threshold is met, inference terminates immediately without having to compute the output of the complete network. Confidence levels are derived directly from the softmax outputs of intermediate classifiers, as we do not train special decision functions. We show that using a softmax output as a confidence measure in a cascade of deep neural networks leads to a reduction of 15%-50% in the number of MAC operations while degrading the classification accuracy by roughly 1%. Our method can be easily incorporated into pre-trained non-cascaded architectures, as we exemplify on ResNet. Our main contribution is a method that dynamically adjusts the tradeoff between accuracy and computation without retraining the model.

To maintain user trust, large language models (LLMs) should signal low confidence on examples where they are incorrect, instead of misleading the user. The standard approach of estimating confidence is to use the softmax probabilities of these models, but as of November 2023, state-of-the-art LLMs such as GPT-4 and Claude-v1.3 do not provide access to these probabilities. We first study eliciting confidence linguistically -- asking an LLM for its confidence in its answer -- which performs reasonably (80.5% AUC on GPT-4 averaged across 12 question-answering datasets -- 7% above a random baseline) but leaves room for improvement. We then explore using a surrogate confidence model -- using a model where we do have probabilities to evaluate the original model's confidence in a given question. Surprisingly, even though these probabilities come from a different and often weaker model, this method leads to higher AUC than linguistic confidences on 9 out of 12 datasets. Our best method composing linguistic confidences and surrogate model probabilities gives state-of-the-art confidence estimates on all 12 datasets (84.6% average AUC on GPT-4).

Increasing test-time computation is a straightforward approach to enhancing the quality of responses in Large Language Models (LLMs). While Best-of-N sampling and Self-Consistency with majority voting are simple and effective, they require a fixed number of sampling responses for each query, regardless of its complexity. This could result in wasted computation for simpler questions and insufficient exploration for more challenging ones. In this work, we argue that model confidence of responses can be used for improving the efficiency of test-time scaling. Unfortunately, LLMs are known to be overconfident and provide unreliable confidence estimation. To address this limitation, we introduce Self-Calibration by distilling Self-Consistency-derived confidence into the model itself. This enables reliable confidence estimation at test time with one forward pass. We then design confidence-based efficient test-time scaling methods to handle queries of various difficulty, such as Early-Stopping for Best-of-N and Self-Consistency with calibrated confidence. Experiments on three LLMs across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Specifically, applying confidence-based Early Stopping to Best-of-N improves MathQA accuracy from 81.0 to 83.6 with a sample budget of 16 responses, indicating the efficacy of confidence-based sampling strategy at inference time.

Estimating uncertainty or confidence in the responses of a model can be significant in evaluating trust not only in the responses, but also in the model as a whole. In this paper, we explore the problem of estimating confidence for responses of large language models (LLMs) with simply black-box or query access to them. We propose a simple and extensible framework where, we engineer novel features and train a (interpretable) model (viz. logistic regression) on these features to estimate the confidence. We empirically demonstrate that our simple framework is effective in estimating confidence of flan-ul2, llama-13b and mistral-7b with it consistently outperforming existing black-box confidence estimation approaches on benchmark datasets such as TriviaQA, SQuAD, CoQA and Natural Questions by even over 10% (on AUROC) in some cases. Additionally, our interpretable approach provides insight into features that are predictive of confidence, leading to the interesting and useful discovery that our confidence models built for one LLM generalize zero-shot across others on a given dataset.

Large language models are increasingly used for content moderation, but most evaluations still report aggregate accuracy on individual benchmarks. We introduce Safety-Flag, which places seven widely used safety benchmarks (BeaverTails, XSTest, Ethics, WildGuard, Aegis, ToxiChat, and ToxiGen) into a single balanced flag / do-not-flag protocol. We release item-level decisions and confidence scores for six general-purpose LLMs and four dedicated guards, together with three reference models, evaluated on the same items. Safety-Flag measures three dimensions of moderator reliability: error direction, probability calibration, and confidence-based error ranking for human review. They often disagree. Aggregate accuracy does not reveal error direction: one model flags 85% of benign content, whereas another misses 54% of harmful content. All six general-purpose models are overconfident; fitting one temperature per model reduces calibration error by 2.8--6.0times without changing predicted labels or confidence ordering. Confidence-based abstention lowers selective risk for every model, although the gains depend on how well confidence ranks errors. Dedicated guards produce fewer false alarms and are better calibrated, but several have higher miss rates outside their documented coverage. We release the benchmark, fixed item lists, evaluation code, per-item model outputs, and leaderboard at: https://github.com/yibo-hu-lab/safety-flag-benchmark.

FOLD-RM is an explainable machine learning classification algorithm that uses training data to create a set of classification rules. In this paper we introduce CON-FOLD which extends FOLD-RM in several ways. CON-FOLD assigns probability-based confidence scores to rules learned for a classification task. This allows users to know how confident they should be in a prediction made by the model. We present a confidence-based pruning algorithm that uses the unique structure of FOLD-RM rules to efficiently prune rules and prevent overfitting. Furthermore, CON-FOLD enables the user to provide pre-existing knowledge in the form of logic program rules that are either (fixed) background knowledge or (modifiable) initial rule candidates. The paper describes our method in detail and reports on practical experiments. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm on benchmark datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. For that, we introduce a new metric, Inverse Brier Score, to evaluate the accuracy of the produced confidence scores. Finally we apply this extension to a real world example that requires explainability: marking of student responses to a short answer question from the Australian Physics Olympiad.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used as automated judges, where practical value depends on both accuracy and trustworthy, risk-aware judgments. Existing approaches predominantly focus on accuracy, overlooking the necessity of well-calibrated confidence, which is vital for adaptive and reliable evaluation pipelines. In this work, we advocate a shift from accuracy-centric evaluation to confidence-driven, risk-aware LLM-as-a-Judge systems, emphasizing the necessity of well-calibrated confidence for trustworthy and adaptive evaluation. We systematically identify the Overconfidence Phenomenon in current LLM-as-a-Judges, where predicted confidence significantly overstates actual correctness, undermining reliability in practical deployment. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce TH-Score, a novel metric measuring confidence-accuracy alignment. Furthermore, we propose LLM-as-a-Fuser, an ensemble framework that transforms LLMs into reliable, risk-aware evaluators. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially improves calibration and enables adaptive, confidence-driven evaluation pipelines, achieving superior reliability and accuracy compared to existing baselines.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Self-paced learning and hard example mining re-weight training instances to improve learning accuracy. This paper presents two improved alternatives based on lightweight estimates of sample uncertainty in stochastic gradient descent (SGD): the variance in predicted probability of the correct class across iterations of mini-batch SGD, and the proximity of the correct class probability to the decision threshold. Extensive experimental results on six datasets show that our methods reliably improve accuracy in various network architectures, including additional gains on top of other popular training techniques, such as residual learning, momentum, ADAM, batch normalization, dropout, and distillation.

This paper discusses the weight parametrization of two standard 1-Lipschitz network architectures, the Almost-Orthogonal-Layers (AOL) and the SDP-based Lipschitz Layers (SLL). It examines their impact on initialization for deep 1-Lipschitz feedforward networks, and discusses underlying issues surrounding this initialization. These networks are mainly used in certifiably robust classification applications to combat adversarial attacks by limiting the impact of perturbations on the classification output. Exact and upper bounds for the parameterized weight variance were calculated assuming a standard Normal distribution initialization; additionally, an upper bound was computed assuming a Generalized Normal Distribution, generalizing the proof for Uniform, Laplace, and Normal distribution weight initializations. It is demonstrated that the weight variance holds no bearing on the output variance distribution and that only the dimension of the weight matrices matters. Additionally, this paper demonstrates that the weight initialization always causes deep 1-Lipschitz networks to decay to zero.

Confidence-based voting aggregates parallel LLM rollouts by weighting each with internal signals such as token log probabilities, and has been actively studied for single-turn reasoning. However, modern LLMs increasingly act as multi-turn search agents that retrieve and condition on external documents. In this paper, we show that confidence-based voting transfers poorly to this multi-turn setting, and identify the underlying failure reason as copy inflation: when retrieved documents are appended to an agent's context, tokens copied from those documents receive systematically inflated log probabilities. This flattens confidence scores within each question and weakens the resulting weighted vote. To address this issue, we propose Retrieval-Grounded Voting (RGV), which scores each rollout by the lexical overlap between its final answer and the documents it retrieved. By computing the signal outside the contaminated context, RGV sidesteps both token log probabilities and additional LLM calls. Across four search-agent benchmarks and five LLMs, RGV consistently outperforms confidence-based voting, with gains of up to +5.4% accuracy and +35% on minority-correct questions, where the correct answer appears in only 1-2 of 8 rollouts.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to structured clinical data, yet whether they can recognize the limits of their own knowledge on such tasks remains unexplored. We study this question through the lens of cross-model attribution divergence with the goal of reducing epistemic uncertainty for structured tasks, comparing Qwen 2.5 7B and XGBoost on a prediction task via attribution divergence analysis. We report four findings. First, LLM verbalized confidence is epistemically vacuous, it outputs a near-constant (0.856-0.937) regardless of whether accuracy is 49% or 75.3%, tracking prompt format rather than prediction quality. Second, the LLM exhibits an inverse difficulty effect: accuracy drops to 64.8% when XGBoost is 99% correct, but matches XGBoost (73.8% vs. 73.1%) when it is moderately uncertain. Third, few-shot examples and SHAP-derived feature evidence are orthogonal, super-additive interventions: they reduce the Attribution Disagreement Score (ADS) from 1.54 to 0.38 and improve accuracy from 49% to 75.3% without training. Fourth, a cross-model calibrator that determined LLM reliability using attribution divergence signals reduces expected calibration error from 0.254 to 0.080, replacing uninformative verbalized confidence with patient-specific reliability estimates, without accessing model internals or requiring repeated inference. We frame these findings as a cold start problem for LLMs on structured data and outline a path toward genuine epistemic self-awareness.

We propose Confidence-Guided Token Merging (Co-Me), an acceleration mechanism for visual geometric transformers without retraining or finetuning the base model. Co-Me distilled a light-weight confidence predictor to rank tokens by uncertainty and selectively merge low-confidence ones, effectively reducing computation while maintaining spatial coverage. Compared to similarity-based merging or pruning, the confidence signal in Co-Me reliably indicates regions emphasized by the transformer, enabling substantial acceleration without degrading performance. Co-Me applies seamlessly to various multi-view and streaming visual geometric transformers, achieving speedups that scale with sequence length. When applied to VGGT and MapAnything, Co-Me achieves up to 11.3times and 7.2times speedup, making visual geometric transformers practical for real-time 3D perception and reconstruction.

Accurate confidence calibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for safe use in high-stakes domains, where clear verbalized confidence enhances user trust. Traditional methods that mimic reference confidence expressions often fail to capture the reasoning needed for accurate confidence assessment. We propose natural language critiques as a solution, ideally suited for confidence calibration, as precise gold confidence labels are hard to obtain and often require multiple generations. This paper studies how natural language critiques can enhance verbalized confidence, addressing: (1) What to critique: uncertainty (question-focused) or confidence (answer-specific)? Analysis shows confidence suits multiple-choice tasks, while uncertainty excels in open-ended scenarios. (2) How to critique: self-critique or critique calibration training? We propose Self-Critique, enabling LLMs to critique and optimize their confidence beyond mere accuracy, and CritiCal, a novel Critique Calibration training method that leverages natural language critiques to improve confidence calibration, moving beyond direct numerical optimization. Experiments show that CritiCal significantly outperforms Self-Critique and other competitive baselines, even surpassing its teacher model, GPT-4o, in complex reasoning tasks. CritiCal also shows robust generalization in out-of-distribution settings, advancing LLM's reliability.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident but incorrect answers in settings where abstention would be safer. Standard evaluation protocols, however, require a response and do not account for how confidence should guide decisions under different risk preferences. To address this gap, we introduce the Behavioral Alignment Score (BAS), a decision-theoretic metric for evaluating how well LLM confidence supports abstention-aware decision making. BAS is derived from an explicit answer-or-abstain utility model and aggregates realized utility across a continuum of risk thresholds, yielding a measure of decision-level reliability that depends on both the magnitude and ordering of confidence. We show theoretically that truthful confidence estimates uniquely maximize expected BAS utility, linking calibration to decision-optimal behavior. BAS is related to proper scoring rules such as log loss, but differs structurally: log loss penalizes underconfidence and overconfidence symmetrically, whereas BAS imposes an asymmetric penalty that strongly prioritizes avoiding overconfident errors. Using BAS alongside widely used metrics such as ECE and AURC, we then construct a benchmark of self-reported confidence reliability across multiple LLMs and tasks. Our results reveal substantial variation in decision-useful confidence, and while larger and more accurate models tend to achieve higher BAS, even frontier models remain prone to severe overconfidence. Importantly, models with similar ECE or AURC can exhibit very different BAS due to highly overconfident errors, highlighting limitations of standard metrics. We further show that simple interventions, such as top-k confidence elicitation and post-hoc calibration, can meaningfully improve confidence reliability. Overall, our work provides both a principled metric and a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating LLM confidence reliability.

In this work, we study how well the learned weights of a neural network utilize the space available to them. This notion is related to capacity, but additionally incorporates the interaction of the network architecture with the dataset. Most learned weights appear to be full rank, and are therefore not amenable to low rank decomposition. This deceptively implies that the weights are utilizing the entire space available to them. We propose a simple data-driven transformation that projects the weights onto the subspace where the data and the weight interact. This preserves the functional mapping of the layer and reveals its low rank structure. In our findings, we conclude that most models utilize a fraction of the available space. For instance, for ViTB-16 and ViTL-16 trained on ImageNet, the mean layer utilization is 35% and 20% respectively. Our transformation results in reducing the parameters to 50% and 25% respectively, while resulting in less than 0.2% accuracy drop after fine-tuning. We also show that self-supervised pre-training drives this utilization up to 70%, justifying its suitability for downstream tasks.

Scaling educational assessment with large language models requires not just accuracy, but the ability to recognize when predictions are trustworthy. Instruction-tuned models tend to be overconfident, and their reliability deteriorates as curricula evolve, making fully autonomous deployment unsafe in high-stakes settings. We introduce CHiL(L)Grader, the first automated grading framework that incorporates calibrated confidence estimation into a human-in-the-loop workflow. Using post-hoc temperature scaling, confidence-based selective prediction, and continual learning, CHiL(L)Grader automates only high-confidence predictions while routing uncertain cases to human graders, and adapts to evolving rubrics and unseen questions. Across three short-answer grading datasets, CHiL(L)Grader automatically scores 35-65% of responses at expert-level quality (QWK >= 0.80). A QWK gap of 0.347 between accepted and rejected predictions confirms the effectiveness of the confidence-based routing. Each correction cycle strengthens the model's grading capability as it learns from teacher feedback. These results show that uncertainty quantification is key for reliable AI-assisted grading.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Large language models (LLMs) often generate inaccurate or fabricated information and generally fail to indicate their confidence, which limits their broader applications. Previous work elicits confidence from LLMs by direct or self-consistency prompting, or constructing specific datasets for supervised finetuning. The prompting-based approaches have inferior performance, and the training-based approaches are limited to binary or inaccurate group-level confidence estimates. In this work, we present the advanced SaySelf, a training framework that teaches LLMs to express more accurate fine-grained confidence estimates. In addition, beyond the confidence scores, SaySelf initiates the process of directing LLMs to produce self-reflective rationales that clearly identify gaps in their parametric knowledge and explain their uncertainty. This is achieved by using an LLM to automatically summarize the uncertainties in specific knowledge via natural language. The summarization is based on the analysis of the inconsistency in multiple sampled reasoning chains, and the resulting data is utilized for supervised fine-tuning. Moreover, we utilize reinforcement learning with a meticulously crafted reward function to calibrate the confidence estimates, motivating LLMs to deliver accurate, high-confidence predictions and to penalize overconfidence in erroneous outputs. Experimental results in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of SaySelf in reducing the confidence calibration error and maintaining the task performance. We show that the generated self-reflective rationales are reasonable and can further contribute to the calibration. The code is made public at https://github.com/xu1868/SaySelf.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Reward models can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but they typically require extensive curated data and costly training. To mitigate these challenges, training-free approaches such as LLM-as-a-Judge leverage the intrinsic reasoning abilities of LLMs to evaluate responses, achieving promising results. Recent works have also indicated that model confidence can serve effectively as a reward metric, distinguishing between chain-of-thought (CoT) and non-CoT paths. However, the concept of using confidence as a reward has not been comprehensively studied. In this work, we systematically investigate Confidence-as-a-Reward (CRew), a simple yet powerful training-free method that utilizes token-level confidence in the model's final answers as a proxy for reward, especially suitable for close-ended tasks. Through extensive experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks, we demonstrate that CRew outperforms existing training-free reward approaches on the MATH500 and RewardMATH benchmarks, and even surpasses most trained reward models. We further identify a strong correlation between CRew scores and the actual reasoning performance of the model. Additionally, we find that CRew can effectively filter high-quality training data. Building upon these insights, we propose CRew-DPO, a training strategy that constructs preference data from confidence scores combined with correctness signals. Finetuning with CRew-DPO further enhances the model's judging capabilities and consistently outperforms existing self-training methods.

A standard technique for scaling inference-time reasoning is Self-Consistency, whereby multiple candidate answers are sampled from an LLM and the most common answer is selected. More recently, it has been shown that weighted majority voting (e.g. Confidence-Informed Self Consistency (CISC)), which assigns a confidence value to each candidate answer and chooses the answer with the largest accumulated score, tends to be more accurate on a wide range of popular benchmarks. In practice, weighted majority voting necessitates calling a critic LLM on each candidate's reasoning trace to produce the answer's confidence score. This secondary series of LLM calls greatly increases the overhead and cost of weighted majority voting, despite its potential performance benefits. To reduce this expense, we propose VecCISC, a lightweight, adaptive framework that uses a measure of semantic similarity to filter reasoning traces that are semantically equivalent to others, degenerate, or hallucinated, thus decreasing the number of candidate answers that must be evaluated by the critic. To ensure adequate experimental thoroughness, we evaluate VecCISC on five challenging, widely-adopted datasets spanning the domains of mathematics, chemistry, biology, commonsense reasoning, and the humanities. Our results demonstrate that VecCISC reduces the total token usage by 47%, while maintaining or exceeding the accuracy of CISC.

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Linguistic cues such as "I believe" and "probably" offer an intuitive interface for communicating confidence, yet a generalisable, principled calibration framework for linguistic confidence expressions remains underexplored. In particular, co-occurring linguistic cues, contextual variation, and subjective audience interpretation pose unique challenges. We therefore model linguistic confidence as a distribution over plausible perceived probability values that a statement is correct, capturing interpretation variability that scalar representations discard. Within this distributional framework, we introduce faithfulness as a complementary evaluation dimension and present Faithfulness Divergence (FD), an information-theoretic metric quantifying the surprise induced in audience beliefs upon truth revelation. Building on these foundations, we present Retrieval-Augmented Linguistic Calibration (RALC), a lightweight post-hoc pipeline that propagates calibrated confidence signals back into natural language via retrieval-augmented rewriting. Across three QA benchmarks and five LLM families, RALC improves in-domain faithfulness and calibration up to 66% and 58%, respectively, outperforming black-box and grey-box calibration baselines.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

A correctly reconstructed distant point appears uncertain even when a frozen 3D model processes equivalent inputs because its output frame rotates fractionally. This exposes a weakness of trainingfree perturbation uncertainty: when outputs contain an unobserved symmetry, run-to-run variation potentially reflects symmetry rather than error. Existing alternatives have trade-offs: built-in confidence is outperformed in most evaluated conditions, while trained evidential heads require modelspecific supervision. For point maps, this research derives a closed-form, error-independent variance term that grows with scene extent and potentially overwhelms the desired signal. Simulation reproduces the effect; all 30 real VGGT view-sets tested exhibit its predicted |x_p|^2 signature. ReVar3R robustly registers predictions to a common similarity frame before computing per-point variance, without retraining or modifying the frozen model. Optional calibration and fusion use a held-out split. Across VGGT, π3, and MASt3R on six datasets, the same estimator on every backbone lowers AUSE below built-in confidence in 15 of 18 conditions. The staged evaluation yields 11 of 18 wins for the label-free core, 12/18 for label-free equal-weight fusion, 14/18 with held-out weights, and 15/18 when the built-in signal is included. Against a trained evidential head, the result is a trade-off: the head calibrates magnitude better and leads in its training domain, whereas ReVar3R transfers across backbones without adaptation. Its ranking improves point filtering, but it does not detect stable systematic bias, aid novel-view synthesis, or transfer calibration across domains.

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law assumes every training token is unique. This limits its ability to guide pretraining decisions in data-constrained regimes. We model the excess loss under repetition with a simple additive overfitting penalty and find that it accurately describes model behavior. Our scaling law yields qualitatively new compute-optimal allocation advice. Beyond a point, further repetition is counterproductive and compute is better spent on model capacity. We show that following our law's recommended configuration improves performance in data-constrained regimes. Finally, because our one-parameter form isolates overfitting in a single coefficient, it enables direct comparison across training configurations. As a case study, we show that strong weight decay (λ=1.0) reduces this coefficient by approximately 70%, providing a scaling-law explanation for recent findings that optimal weight decay in data-constrained regimes is an order of magnitude larger than standard practice.