Daily Papers

How can we predict future interaction trajectories of human hands in a scene given high-level colloquial task specifications in the form of natural language? In this paper, we extend the classic hand trajectory prediction task to two tasks involving explicit or implicit language queries. Our proposed tasks require extensive understanding of human daily activities and reasoning abilities about what should be happening next given cues from the current scene. We also develop new benchmarks to evaluate the proposed two tasks, Vanilla Hand Prediction (VHP) and Reasoning-Based Hand Prediction (RBHP). We enable solving these tasks by integrating high-level world knowledge and reasoning capabilities of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) with the auto-regressive nature of low-level ego-centric hand trajectories. Our model, HandsOnVLM is a novel VLM that can generate textual responses and produce future hand trajectories through natural-language conversations. Our experiments show that HandsOnVLM outperforms existing task-specific methods and other VLM baselines on proposed tasks, and demonstrates its ability to effectively utilize world knowledge for reasoning about low-level human hand trajectories based on the provided context. Our website contains code and detailed video results https://www.chenbao.tech/handsonvlm/

Manipulating a Rubik's Cube with a single dexterous hand is a challenging test of sustained, contact-rich control: the hand must execute successive layer turns while keeping the cube secure. Each turn requires some fingers to support the cube while others push a moving layer, release contact, and reset for the next move. To learn this coordination, we introduce FINGR (Future-supervised Interaction Network with Geometric Representations), a policy that combines finger-relative geometry with future interaction prediction. A shared point encoder expresses the cube relative to each fingertip and aggregates its points without depending on cubie indexing. Learned future tokens share the observation encoder and receive supervision for contact-force changes, layer-turn progress, and finger joint displacement at multiple time scales. The resulting representation conditions a flow policy that directly generates finger actions. On a real dexterous hand, our policy achieves 99.0% success over 300 turn attempts, compared with 79.7% for the base flow policy. Integrated with grasping and table-assisted regrasping, the policy solves all ten scrambled 2times2times2 cubes in a mean complete-system time of approximately 137 seconds. The project website is available at https://www.lyt0112.com/projects/FINGR

Motivation: Emerging drug-drug interaction (DDI) prediction is crucial for new drugs but is hindered by distribution changes between known and new drugs in real-world scenarios. Current evaluation often neglects these changes, relying on unrealistic i.i.d. split due to the absence of drug approval data. Results: We propose DDI-Ben, a benchmarking framework for emerging DDI prediction under distribution changes. DDI-Ben introduces a distribution change simulation framework that leverages distribution changes between drug sets as a surrogate for real-world distribution changes of DDIs, and is compatible with various drug split strategies. Through extensive benchmarking on ten representative methods, we show that most existing approaches suffer substantial performance degradation under distribution changes. Our analysis further indicates that large language model (LLM) based methods and the integration of drug-related textual information offer promising robustness against such degradation. To support future research, we release the benchmark datasets with simulated distribution changes. Overall, DDI-Ben highlights the importance of explicitly addressing distribution changes and provides a foundation for developing more resilient methods for emerging DDI prediction. Availability and implementation: Our code and data are available at https://github.com/LARS-research/DDI-Bench.

Vehicle-to-everything technologies (V2X) have become an ideal paradigm to extend the perception range and see through the occlusion. Exiting efforts focus on single-frame cooperative perception, however, how to capture the temporal cue between frames with V2X to facilitate the prediction task even the planning task is still underexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Co-MTP, a general cooperative trajectory prediction framework with multi-temporal fusion for autonomous driving, which leverages the V2X system to fully capture the interaction among agents in both history and future domains to benefit the planning. In the history domain, V2X can complement the incomplete history trajectory in single-vehicle perception, and we design a heterogeneous graph transformer to learn the fusion of the history feature from multiple agents and capture the history interaction. Moreover, the goal of prediction is to support future planning. Thus, in the future domain, V2X can provide the prediction results of surrounding objects, and we further extend the graph transformer to capture the future interaction among the ego planning and the other vehicles' intentions and obtain the final future scenario state under a certain planning action. We evaluate the Co-MTP framework on the real-world dataset V2X-Seq, and the results show that Co-MTP achieves state-of-the-art performance and that both history and future fusion can greatly benefit prediction.

Knowledge tracing (KT) is the task of using students' historical learning interaction data to model their knowledge mastery over time so as to make predictions on their future interaction performance. Recently, remarkable progress has been made of using various deep learning techniques to solve the KT problem. However, the success behind deep learning based knowledge tracing (DLKT) approaches is still left somewhat unknown and proper measurement and analysis of these DLKT approaches remain a challenge. First, data preprocessing procedures in existing works are often private and custom, which limits experimental standardization. Furthermore, existing DLKT studies often differ in terms of the evaluation protocol and are far away real-world educational contexts. To address these problems, we introduce a comprehensive python based benchmark platform, pyKT, to guarantee valid comparisons across DLKT methods via thorough evaluations. The pyKT library consists of a standardized set of integrated data preprocessing procedures on 7 popular datasets across different domains, and 10 frequently compared DLKT model implementations for transparent experiments. Results from our fine-grained and rigorous empirical KT studies yield a set of observations and suggestions for effective DLKT, e.g., wrong evaluation setting may cause label leakage that generally leads to performance inflation; and the improvement of many DLKT approaches is minimal compared to the very first DLKT model proposed by Piech et al. piech2015deep. We have open sourced pyKT and our experimental results at https://pykt.org/. We welcome contributions from other research groups and practitioners.

We address the challenging task of anticipating human-object interaction in first person videos. Most existing methods ignore how the camera wearer interacts with the objects, or simply consider body motion as a separate modality. In contrast, we observe that the international hand movement reveals critical information about the future activity. Motivated by this, we adopt intentional hand movement as a future representation and propose a novel deep network that jointly models and predicts the egocentric hand motion, interaction hotspots and future action. Specifically, we consider the future hand motion as the motor attention, and model this attention using latent variables in our deep model. The predicted motor attention is further used to characterise the discriminative spatial-temporal visual features for predicting actions and interaction hotspots. We present extensive experiments demonstrating the benefit of the proposed joint model. Importantly, our model produces new state-of-the-art results for action anticipation on both EGTEA Gaze+ and the EPIC-Kitchens datasets. Our project page is available at https://aptx4869lm.github.io/ForecastingHOI/

Although Vision Transformer (ViT) has achieved significant success in computer vision, it does not perform well in dense prediction tasks due to the lack of inner-patch information interaction and the limited diversity of feature scale. Most existing studies are devoted to designing vision-specific transformers to solve the above problems, which introduce additional pre-training costs. Therefore, we present a plain, pre-training-free, and feature-enhanced ViT backbone with Convolutional Multi-scale feature interaction, named ViT-CoMer, which facilitates bidirectional interaction between CNN and transformer. Compared to the state-of-the-art, ViT-CoMer has the following advantages: (1) We inject spatial pyramid multi-receptive field convolutional features into the ViT architecture, which effectively alleviates the problems of limited local information interaction and single-feature representation in ViT. (2) We propose a simple and efficient CNN-Transformer bidirectional fusion interaction module that performs multi-scale fusion across hierarchical features, which is beneficial for handling dense prediction tasks. (3) We evaluate the performance of ViT-CoMer across various dense prediction tasks, different frameworks, and multiple advanced pre-training. Notably, our ViT-CoMer-L achieves 64.3% AP on COCO val2017 without extra training data, and 62.1% mIoU on ADE20K val, both of which are comparable to state-of-the-art methods. We hope ViT-CoMer can serve as a new backbone for dense prediction tasks to facilitate future research. The code will be released at https://github.com/Traffic-X/ViT-CoMer.

Analyzing and forecasting trajectories of agents like pedestrians and cars in complex scenes has become more and more significant in many intelligent systems and applications. The diversity and uncertainty in socially interactive behaviors among a rich variety of agents make this task more challenging than other deterministic computer vision tasks. Researchers have made a lot of efforts to quantify the effects of these interactions on future trajectories through different mathematical models and network structures, but this problem has not been well solved. Inspired by marine animals that localize the positions of their companions underwater through echoes, we build a new anglebased trainable social interaction representation, named SocialCircle, for continuously reflecting the context of social interactions at different angular orientations relative to the target agent. We validate the effect of the proposed SocialCircle by training it along with several newly released trajectory prediction models, and experiments show that the SocialCircle not only quantitatively improves the prediction performance, but also qualitatively helps better simulate social interactions when forecasting pedestrian trajectories in a way that is consistent with human intuitions.

World models have attracted significant attention for their ability to capture and predict the structure and dynamics of the physical world. In this emerging landscape, Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) offer a particularly compelling direction. We study a largely unexplored regime: populous, crowded, and chaotic Global South urban environments, which we call DENSEWORLD. Unlike the lower-density, lane-structured settings that dominate existing evaluations, these scenes exhibit soft spatial boundaries, extreme agent heterogeneity, persistent occlusion, and rapid social negotiation under mixed traffic. We introduce the first large-scale dataset for this regime: 1,000 hours of drive-through, walk-through, and aerial video across 22 cities. Existing JEPA formulations struggle to preserve dense interaction dynamics under heterogeneity and partial observability. We introduce FactorJEPA, which makes world structure a first-class predictive primitive. Rather than encoding the future in a monolithic latent, it composes layout, entities, and interactions, using a visibility gate and separated subspaces to preserve partially observed agents and discourage cross-factor shortcuts. FactorJEPA improves (i) future-latent accuracy (Future-frame L1), (ii) intervention-sensitive prediction (Causal L1), and (iii) robustness to reduced visual evidence (Mask-ratio slope), while exposing (iv) a reproducible motion-information trade-off (Motion cosine). Method rankings replicate across 2B and 1B V-JEPA 2.1 backbones, with rho = 0.895 to 0.978. We publicly release the DENSEWORLD-115k dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/anonymousML123/denseworld-115k) and the surgery-trained FactorJEPA checkpoints (https://huggingface.co/datasets/anonymousML123/factorjepa-outputs/tree/main/outputs/full/vjepa_2_1_vitg_1B/train/m09c_surgery_3stage_DI_diheavy_encoder).

We study reconstructing and predicting 3D fluid appearance and velocity from a single video. Current methods require multi-view videos for fluid reconstruction. We present FluidNexus, a novel framework that bridges video generation and physics simulation to tackle this task. Our key insight is to synthesize multiple novel-view videos as references for reconstruction. FluidNexus consists of two key components: (1) a novel-view video synthesizer that combines frame-wise view synthesis with video diffusion refinement for generating realistic videos, and (2) a physics-integrated particle representation coupling differentiable simulation and rendering to simultaneously facilitate 3D fluid reconstruction and prediction. To evaluate our approach, we collect two new real-world fluid datasets featuring textured backgrounds and object interactions. Our method enables dynamic novel view synthesis, future prediction, and interaction simulation from a single fluid video. Project website: https://yuegao.me/FluidNexus.

Video event prediction (VEP) requires models to infer unobserved future states from partial video evidence. Existing video MLLMs usually verbalize intermediate future reasoning in text space: once visual evidence is verbalized, fine-grained motion, geometry, and interaction cues can be lost, leading to plausible but visually ungrounded hallucinations. We introduce Future-L1, an interleaved latent visual reasoning framework that lets an MLLM alternate between language tokens and continuous latent visual spans during autoregressive decoding. To train this capability, we construct Future-L1-50K by selecting examples where future visual hints help prediction and align latent states to future-frame embeddings, then further optimize sampled latent trajectories with LA-DAPO, a latent-aware RL objective with outcome-contrastive and temporal-diversity rewards. Future-L1 achieves new state-of-the-art results on both benchmarks: on FutureBench, it improves Qwen3-VL-8B from 61.0 to 85.4 and exceeds the previous best Video-CoE by 10.4 points; on TwiFF-Bench, it improves the average score from 2.44 to 3.04. These results suggest that future-oriented video reasoning benefits from preserving intermediate visual semantics in latent space rather than translating every reasoning step into text.

Predicting the trajectories of road agents is essential for autonomous driving systems. The recent mainstream methods follow a static paradigm, which predicts the future trajectory by using a fixed duration of historical frames. These methods make the predictions independently even at adjacent time steps, which leads to potential instability and temporal inconsistency. As successive time steps have largely overlapping historical frames, their forecasting should have intrinsic correlation, such as overlapping predicted trajectories should be consistent, or be different but share the same motion goal depending on the road situation. Motivated by this, in this work, we introduce HPNet, a novel dynamic trajectory forecasting method. Aiming for stable and accurate trajectory forecasting, our method leverages not only historical frames including maps and agent states, but also historical predictions. Specifically, we newly design a Historical Prediction Attention module to automatically encode the dynamic relationship between successive predictions. Besides, it also extends the attention range beyond the currently visible window benefitting from the use of historical predictions. The proposed Historical Prediction Attention together with the Agent Attention and Mode Attention is further formulated as the Triple Factorized Attention module, serving as the core design of HPNet.Experiments on the Argoverse and INTERACTION datasets show that HPNet achieves state-of-the-art performance, and generates accurate and stable future trajectories. Our code are available at https://github.com/XiaolongTang23/HPNet.

Multi-person motion prediction is a challenging problem due to the dependency of motion on both individual past movements and interactions with other people. Transformer-based methods have shown promising results on this task, but they miss the explicit relation representation between joints, such as skeleton structure and pairwise distance, which is crucial for accurate interaction modeling. In this paper, we propose the Joint-Relation Transformer, which utilizes relation information to enhance interaction modeling and improve future motion prediction. Our relation information contains the relative distance and the intra-/inter-person physical constraints. To fuse relation and joint information, we design a novel joint-relation fusion layer with relation-aware attention to update both features. Additionally, we supervise the relation information by forecasting future distance. Experiments show that our method achieves a 13.4% improvement of 900ms VIM on 3DPW-SoMoF/RC and 17.8%/12.0% improvement of 3s MPJPE on CMU-Mpcap/MuPoTS-3D dataset.

Generative world models provide robots with predictive models of how the world evolves under interaction, with growing potential for simulation, planning, policy evaluation, and robot learning. Beyond clip-level future prediction, a unified generative formulation should relate actions to consequences, support flexible horizons and continuous interaction, and enable reward-driven optimization. We introduce WALL-SS, a world model that generates visual futures through Scale-wise autoregressive Scaling, enabling action-controllable and long-horizon robotic simulation. WALL-SS represents embodied trajectories as causal sequences of temporally interleaved observations and actions, making action-dependent state transitions explicit while naturally supporting variable-length generation, streaming extension through reusable causal states, and direct optimization through sequence probabilities. To make this formulation effective over long horizons, we generate each future observation in a coarse-to-fine manner and develop three complementary components within the same hierarchy. Action-conditioned next-scale prediction injects scale-aligned action representations to improve action-future coupling and model both successful and failed behaviors. Scale-compressed long-horizon memory retains recent interactions at fine resolution while compressing distant observations and actions, with scale-wise dream forcing enhancing robustness to self-generated context. Finally, on-policy alignment optimizes autoregressive visual dynamics with action-following and long-term consistency rewards while preserving the pretrained visual distribution. Experiments show that WALL-SS improves action following and trajectory accuracy, supports coherent minute-long streaming rollout under bounded memory, and consistently benefits from on-policy alignment in reducing action drift and long-horizon inconsistency.

World-action models (WAMs) couple future prediction with robot control, yet existing systems often vary the video backbone, interaction structure, supervision, and inference procedure simultaneously, making their design choices difficult to compare. We introduce OPENWAM, an open world-action modeling framework built around a common causal robot-video foundation and configurable video-action interaction. Starting from Wan2.2-5B, we perform causal robot-video pretraining on over 10,000 hours of video, then integrate an action expert through a shared Mixture-of-Transformers architecture that supports joint, video-then-action, action-then-video, and decoupled generation. OPENWAM achieves high success rates on four LIBERO suites and real-world bimanual tasks; robot-video training with causal adaptation improves VTA success on LIBERO-Long from 68.4% to 97.8%. The same configurable architecture naturally extends to inverse and forward dynamics, allowing us to study how counterfactual transitions improve independently trained dynamics models beyond demonstrations alone. When only the video predictor is adapted to a new task, a frozen local-context inverse dynamics model trained on counterfactual data and demonstrations achieves 84.0% mean success across four held-out LIBERO-90 tasks, compared with 47.0% for a full-context inverse model and 21.5% for a local-context model trained only on demonstrations. For forward dynamics, counterfactual supervision reduces RGB prediction error by 34.5% and raises outcome identification from 21.1% to 71.3% among 16 same-state outcomes. OPENWAM provides a common testbed for comparing WAM interaction designs and for studying dynamics learning from video data beyond successful demonstrations.

While deep reinforcement learning excels at solving tasks where large amounts of data can be collected through virtually unlimited interaction with the environment, learning from limited interaction remains a key challenge. We posit that an agent can learn more efficiently if we augment reward maximization with self-supervised objectives based on structure in its visual input and sequential interaction with the environment. Our method, Self-Predictive Representations(SPR), trains an agent to predict its own latent state representations multiple steps into the future. We compute target representations for future states using an encoder which is an exponential moving average of the agent's parameters and we make predictions using a learned transition model. On its own, this future prediction objective outperforms prior methods for sample-efficient deep RL from pixels. We further improve performance by adding data augmentation to the future prediction loss, which forces the agent's representations to be consistent across multiple views of an observation. Our full self-supervised objective, which combines future prediction and data augmentation, achieves a median human-normalized score of 0.415 on Atari in a setting limited to 100k steps of environment interaction, which represents a 55% relative improvement over the previous state-of-the-art. Notably, even in this limited data regime, SPR exceeds expert human scores on 7 out of 26 games. The code associated with this work is available at https://github.com/mila-iqia/spr

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have become a powerful paradigm for robot manipulation, but training a single generalist policy for heterogeneous robot embodiments remains an open problem. Existing methods have two main limitations. First, they underuse dynamics priors shared across diverse visual and interaction data, limiting cross-embodiment transfer. Second, they require extensive manual preprocessing to convert embodiment-specific actions into a common format. To overcome these limitations, we propose DyPES-VLA, a cross-embodiment VLA that learns shared Dynamics Priors and Embodiment-Specific control. First, we learn shared dynamics priors by training the vision-language model (VLM) with a future-prediction objective on cross-embodiment data, driving the shared query representation to capture object motion, contact, and interaction-induced scene changes. Second, an embodiment-specific Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) action head translates these shared dynamics priors into executable controls directly in each embodiment's native action space, without manually pre-aligning heterogeneous actions into a common format. This head shares attention layers to capture common temporal action structures, while its embodiment-specific feed-forward experts resolve the unique kinematic constraints and control semantics of distinct embodiments. As a generalist policy, our \ourmethod achieves state-of-the-art performance across simulation and real-world evaluations, reaching 98.0% success on LIBERO, 59.25% on RoboCasa-GR1, and 89.02% on RoboTwin~2.0.

In this report, we present our champion solutions to five tracks at Ego4D challenge. We leverage our developed InternVideo, a video foundation model, for five Ego4D tasks, including Moment Queries, Natural Language Queries, Future Hand Prediction, State Change Object Detection, and Short-term Object Interaction Anticipation. InternVideo-Ego4D is an effective paradigm to adapt the strong foundation model to the downstream ego-centric video understanding tasks with simple head designs. In these five tasks, the performance of InternVideo-Ego4D comprehensively surpasses the baseline methods and the champions of CVPR2022, demonstrating the powerful representation ability of InternVideo as a video foundation model. Our code will be released at https://github.com/OpenGVLab/ego4d-eccv2022-solutions

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding agents is essential for safety-critical autonomous driving. Most existing work focuses on predicting marginal trajectories for each agent independently. However, it has rarely been explored in predicting joint trajectories for interactive agents. In this work, we propose Bi-level Future Fusion (BiFF) to explicitly capture future interactions between interactive agents. Concretely, BiFF fuses the high-level future intentions followed by low-level future behaviors. Then the polyline-based coordinate is specifically designed for multi-agent prediction to ensure data efficiency, frame robustness, and prediction accuracy. Experiments show that BiFF achieves state-of-the-art performance on the interactive prediction benchmark of Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

Humans can effortlessly anticipate how objects might move or change through interaction--imagining a cup being lifted, a knife slicing, or a lid being closed. We aim to endow computational systems with a similar ability to predict plausible future object motions directly from passive visual observation. We introduce ObjectForesight, a 3D object-centric dynamics model that predicts future 6-DoF poses and trajectories of rigid objects from short egocentric video sequences. Unlike conventional world or dynamics models that operate in pixel or latent space, ObjectForesight represents the world explicitly in 3D at the object level, enabling geometrically grounded and temporally coherent predictions that capture object affordances and trajectories. To train such a model at scale, we leverage recent advances in segmentation, mesh reconstruction, and 3D pose estimation to curate a dataset of 2 million plus short clips with pseudo-ground-truth 3D object trajectories. Through extensive experiments, we show that ObjectForesight achieves significant gains in accuracy, geometric consistency, and generalization to unseen objects and scenes, establishing a scalable framework for learning physically grounded, object-centric dynamics models directly from observation. objectforesight.github.io

Neural network training can be accelerated when a learnable update rule is used in lieu of classic adaptive optimizers (e.g. Adam). However, learnable update rules can be costly and unstable to train and use. A simpler recently proposed approach to accelerate training is to use Adam for most of the optimization steps and periodically, only every few steps, nowcast (predict future) parameters. We improve this approach by Neuron interaction and Nowcasting (NiNo) networks. NiNo leverages neuron connectivity and graph neural networks to more accurately nowcast parameters by learning in a supervised way from a set of training trajectories over multiple tasks. We show that in some networks, such as Transformers, neuron connectivity is non-trivial. By accurately modeling neuron connectivity, we allow NiNo to accelerate Adam training by up to 50\% in vision and language tasks.

Understanding and predicting human emotional and physiological states using wearable sensors has important applications in stress monitoring, mental health assessment, and affective computing. This study presents a novel Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that performs Electrodermal Activity (EDA) prediction and emotion classification simultaneously, using the publicly available WESAD dataset. The model integrates psychological self-report features (PANAS and SAM) with a physics-inspired differential equation representing EDA dynamics, enforcing biophysically grounded constraints through a custom loss function. This loss combines EDA regression, emotion classification, and a physics residual term for improved interpretability. The architecture supports dual outputs for both tasks and is trained under a unified multi-task framework. Evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieves an average EDA RMSE of 0.0362, Pearson correlation of 0.9919, and F1-score of 94.08 percent. These results outperform classical models such as SVR and XGBoost, as well as ablated variants like emotion-only and EDA-only models. In addition, the learned physical parameters including decay rate (alpha_0), emotional sensitivity (beta), and time scaling (gamma) are interpretable and stable across folds, aligning with known principles of human physiology. This work is the first to introduce a multi-task PINN framework for wearable emotion recognition, offering improved performance, generalizability, and model transparency. The proposed system provides a foundation for future interpretable and multimodal applications in healthcare and human-computer interaction.

While existing methods for reconstructing hand-object interactions have made impressive progress, they either focus on rigid or part-wise rigid objects-limiting their ability to model real-world objects (e.g., cloth, stuffed animals) that exhibit highly non-rigid deformations-or model deformable objects without full 3D hand reconstruction. To bridge this gap, we present PhysHanDI (Physics-based Reconstruction of Hand and Deformable Object Interactions), a framework that enables full 3D reconstruction of both interacting hands and non-rigid objects. Our key idea is to physically simulate object deformations driven by forces induced from densely reconstructed 3D hand motions, ensuring that the reconstructed object dynamics are both physically plausible and coherent with the interacting hand movements. Furthermore, we demonstrate that such simulation of object deformations can, in turn, refine and improve hand reconstruction via inverse physics. In experiments, PhysHanDI outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline across reconstruction and future prediction.

World Action Models (WAMs) couple future visual prediction with robot action generation, enabling policies to model how the physical world evolves during interaction. Existing WAMs differ in how predictive dynamics are exposed to the action pathway. Explicit-future WAMs provide direct access to predicted scene evolution, but incur substantial inference costs from iterative video denoising. In contrast, direct-policy WAMs efficiently predict actions from the current observation but lack an explicit inference-time interface for exposing predictive dynamics to the Action DiT. To bridge this gap, we propose ForeWAM, a dynamics-conditioned direct-policy WAM that provides predictive context for action generation without decoding future videos. At its core, Future-KV performs a single Video DiT prefill over the current visual latent and stochastic future slots, and reuses the resulting layer-wise key-value states throughout action denoising. We further introduce dynamics registers supervised by a frozen latent action teacher, encouraging the implicit future states to capture interaction-induced transitions such as object motion, contact changes, and task progress. Ground-truth future observations and the teacher are used only during training; deployment requires neither and performs no future video generation. Without embodied robot data pretraining, the standard and accelerated variants of ForeWAM achieve average success rates of 96.7% and 96.9% on LIBERO, respectively. The standard variant further achieves 61.6% success on LIBERO-Plus. These results demonstrate that direct-policy WAMs can retain efficient action prediction while exposing predictive dynamics to the action pathway without explicitly generating future observations.

We present DreamTrue, a multi-view, cross-embodiment robot world model for action-faithful and physically plausible video prediction. Training such a model on existing robot datasets faces two obstacles: imprecise calibration can impair action following, while limited coverage of unsuccessful interactions can bias predictions toward successful outcomes. To improve action following across embodiments, we render action trajectories into image-space conditions and introduce offline geometric calibration to align these conditions with the target videos. To broaden interaction coverage, we introduce counterfactual post-training, modifying recorded action trajectories and generating future videos under a wider range of actions and contact configurations. To provide feedback on these predictions without paired ground-truth futures, we construct a human-annotated video dataset covering robot, object, and interaction defects and use it to train an embodied video reward model. Its scores guide reinforcement-learning post-training toward more physically plausible interaction outcomes. On AgiBot, DreamTrue attains state-of-the-art action following, while reducing the human-assessed interaction defect rate from from 48.12% to 6.25%. Notably, our model ranks first in the world model track of the AgiBot World Challenge 2026. The project page can be found at https://brave-eai.github.io/DreamTrue.

Predicting the dynamics of interacting objects is essential for both humans and intelligent systems. However, existing approaches are limited to simplified, toy settings and lack generalizability to complex, real-world environments. Recent advances in generative models have enabled the prediction of state transitions based on interventions, but focus on generating a single future state which neglects the continuous dynamics resulting from the interaction. To address this gap, we propose InterDyn, a novel framework that generates videos of interactive dynamics given an initial frame and a control signal encoding the motion of a driving object or actor. Our key insight is that large video generation models can act as both neural renderers and implicit physics ``simulators'', having learned interactive dynamics from large-scale video data. To effectively harness this capability, we introduce an interactive control mechanism that conditions the video generation process on the motion of the driving entity. Qualitative results demonstrate that InterDyn generates plausible, temporally consistent videos of complex object interactions while generalizing to unseen objects. Quantitative evaluations show that InterDyn outperforms baselines that focus on static state transitions. This work highlights the potential of leveraging video generative models as implicit physics engines. Project page: https://interdyn.is.tue.mpg.de/

Humans naturally understand object physics through everyday interactions, but faithfully predicting complex deformable dynamics, such as elastic materials and fabrics, remains a major challenge for computer vision and robotics. We present EgoPhys, a framework that constructs deformable physical digital twins from egocentric RGB-only video using generalizable priors. EgoPhys overcomes the limitations of existing methods to enable controllable deformable digital twin generation from egocentric videos by distilling per-object inverse-physics solutions into a compact codebook, enabling prediction of dense spring stiffness fields for unseen objects without per-spring test-time optimization. Trained with generalizable priors from diverse egocentric interactions, EgoPhys outperforms baselines in reconstruction, future prediction, and zero-shot generalization. To support training and evaluation, we curate an egocentric interaction dataset covering diverse deformable objects, scenes, and manipulation styles. We deploy EgoPhys on a real xArm6 robot, demonstrating that a digital twin initialized from a single egocentric human play video can serve as an internal world representation to aid in deformable-object planning, highlighting egocentric RGB observations as a scalable path toward real-to-sim pipelines.

World-action models inherit broad visual and physical priors from video pre-training. However, standard within-video next-frame prediction allows them to rely on appearance shared between the context and future, rather than learning interactions that transfer across scenes and embodiments. We introduce WATCH, a cross-video pre-training that learns from task-paired human demonstrations collected across diverse environments. Conditioned on the video and actions of one demonstration, the model jointly predicts another demonstration's actions and future frames from its current observation. Predicting one demonstration from another encourages the model to learn task-relevant interactions that transfer across scenes and demonstrators. Our pre-training shows that these capabilities can be learned from readily scalable human-human pairs alone, without requiring matched human-robot demonstrations. Analyses before robot post-training show improved motion alignment across embodiments and better action and video prediction on unseen robots, with representations closer to those learned from robot pairs. After robot post-training, WATCH improves MimicDroid in-context success from 40.9% to 68.3% with Cosmos Policy and from 59.8% to 77.7% with Cosmos3, with the largest gains on the unseen levels. Gains persist under context-free post-training across robot embodiments. WATCH outperforms within-video pre-training and co-training baselines, supporting cross-video prediction as a scalable approach to learning transferable world-action representations.

In autonomous driving tasks, trajectory prediction in complex traffic environments requires adherence to real-world context conditions and behavior multimodalities. Existing methods predominantly rely on prior assumptions or generative models trained on curated data to learn road agents' stochastic behavior bounded by scene constraints. However, they often face mode averaging issues due to data imbalance and simplistic priors, and could even suffer from mode collapse due to unstable training and single ground truth supervision. These issues lead the existing methods to a loss of predictive diversity and adherence to the scene constraints. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel trajectory generator named Controllable Diffusion Trajectory (CDT), which integrates map information and social interactions into a Transformer-based conditional denoising diffusion model to guide the prediction of future trajectories. To ensure multimodality, we incorporate behavioral tokens to direct the trajectory's modes, such as going straight, turning right or left. Moreover, we incorporate the predicted endpoints as an alternative behavioral token into the CDT model to facilitate the prediction of accurate trajectories. Extensive experiments on the Argoverse 2 benchmark demonstrate that CDT excels in generating diverse and scene-compliant trajectories in complex urban settings.

Egocentric 4D interaction forecasting aims to anticipate both where future interactions will occur in 3D and how the human body will move to realize them, providing an important capability for assistive robotics and human-computer interaction. Existing methods struggle to translate semantic understanding into precise continuous 3D localization and to balance motion diversity with structural consistency in pose forecasting. More fundamentally, these tasks are often modeled separately, leaving the continuous geometric and temporal correspondence between interaction locations and body motion insufficiently captured. To address these challenges, we introduce Coherent4D, a large-scale egocentric dataset for continuous 4D interaction forecasting, comprising approximately 233K samples across three domains. Each sample pairs a sequence of future 3D interaction locations with corresponding full-body poses, aligned in time and expressed in a shared coordinate system. We also provide evaluation metrics in continuous space. Building on this formulation, we propose HIGFlow, a Hand Interaction Guided Residual Flow framework that models forecasting as a cascaded where-to-how process. HIGFlow first forecasts continuous future interaction locations by combining semantic grounding with short-horizon visual dynamics, and then uses the predicted location sequence to condition a deterministic motion anchor and residual Flow Matching for diverse yet structurally consistent full-body motion forecasting. Extensive experiments across all three domains demonstrate consistent improvements over representative baselines on both location and pose forecasting, while ablations validate the contributions of the proposed components. The project page is available at https://corrineqiu.github.io/from-where-to-how/.

Prior work on human motion forecasting has mostly focused on predicting the future motion of single subjects in isolation from their past pose sequence. In the presence of closely interacting people, however, this strategy fails to account for the dependencies between the different subject's motions. In this paper, we therefore introduce a motion prediction framework that explicitly reasons about the interactions of two observed subjects. Specifically, we achieve this by introducing a pairwise attention mechanism that models the mutual dependencies in the motion history of the two subjects. This allows us to preserve the long-term motion dynamics in a more realistic way and more robustly predict unusual and fast-paced movements, such as the ones occurring in a dance scenario. To evaluate this, and because no existing motion prediction datasets depict two closely-interacting subjects, we introduce the LindyHop600K dance dataset. Our results evidence that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art single person motion prediction techniques.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Large Language Model (LLM) personalization holds great promise for tailoring responses by leveraging personal context and history. However, real-world users usually possess sparse interaction histories with limited personal context, such as cold-start users in social platforms and newly registered customers in online E-commerce platforms, compromising the LLM-based personalized generation. To address this challenge, we introduce GraSPer (Graph-based Sparse Personalized Reasoning), a novel framework for enhancing personalized text generation under sparse context. GraSPer first augments user context by predicting items that the user would likely interact with in the future. With reasoning alignment, it then generates texts for these interactions to enrich the augmented context. In the end, it generates personalized outputs conditioned on both the real and synthetic histories, ensuring alignment with user style and preferences. Extensive experiments on three benchmark personalized generation datasets show that GraSPer achieves significant performance gain, substantially improving personalization in sparse user context settings.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

The task of predicting future actions from a video is crucial for a real-world agent interacting with others. When anticipating actions in the distant future, we humans typically consider long-term relations over the whole sequence of actions, i.e., not only observed actions in the past but also potential actions in the future. In a similar spirit, we propose an end-to-end attention model for action anticipation, dubbed Future Transformer (FUTR), that leverages global attention over all input frames and output tokens to predict a minutes-long sequence of future actions. Unlike the previous autoregressive models, the proposed method learns to predict the whole sequence of future actions in parallel decoding, enabling more accurate and fast inference for long-term anticipation. We evaluate our method on two standard benchmarks for long-term action anticipation, Breakfast and 50 Salads, achieving state-of-the-art results.

Truly proactive AI systems must anticipate what we will do next. This foresight demands far richer information than the sparse signals we type into our prompts -- it demands reasoning over the entire context of what we see and do. We formalize this as next action prediction (NAP): given a sequence of a user's multimodal interactions with a computer (screenshots, clicks, sensor data), predict that user's next action. Progress on this task requires both new data and modeling approaches. To scale data, we annotate longitudinal, naturalistic computer use with vision-language models. We release an open-source pipeline for performing this labeling on private infrastructure, and label over 360K actions across one month of continuous phone usage from 20 users, amounting to 1,800 hours of screen time. We then introduce LongNAP, a user model that combines parametric and in-context learning to reason over long interaction histories. LongNAP is trained via policy gradient methods to generate user-specific reasoning traces given some context; retrieve relevant traces from a library of past traces; and then apply retrieved traces in-context to predict future actions. Using an LLM-as-judge evaluation metric (0-1 similarity to ground truth), LongNAP significantly outperforms supervised finetuning and prompted baselines on held-out data (by 79% and 39% respectively). Additionally, LongNAP generalizes to held out users when trained across individuals. The space of next actions a user might take at any moment is unbounded, spanning thousands of possible outcomes. Despite this, 17.1% of LongNAP's predicted trajectories are well-aligned with what a user does next (LLM-judge score geq 0.5). This rises to 26% when we filter to highly confident predictions. In sum, we argue that learning from the full context of user behavior to anticipate user needs is now a viable task with substantial opportunity.

Recent sequential recommendation models rely increasingly on consecutive short-term user-item interaction sequences to model user interests. These approaches have, however, raised concerns about both short- and long-term interests. (1) {\it short-term}: interaction sequences may not result from a monolithic interest, but rather from several intertwined interests, even within a short period of time, resulting in their failures to model skip behaviors; (2) {\it long-term}: interaction sequences are primarily observed sparsely at discrete intervals, other than consecutively over the long run. This renders difficulty in inferring long-term interests, since only discrete interest representations can be derived, without taking into account interest dynamics across sequences. In this study, we address these concerns by learning (1) multi-scale representations of short-term interests; and (2) dynamics-aware representations of long-term interests. To this end, we present an Interest Dynamics modeling framework using generative Neural Processes, coined IDNP, to model user interests from a functional perspective. IDNP learns a global interest function family to define each user's long-term interest as a function instantiation, manifesting interest dynamics through function continuity. Specifically, IDNP first encodes each user's short-term interactions into multi-scale representations, which are then summarized as user context. By combining latent global interest with user context, IDNP then reconstructs long-term user interest functions and predicts interactions at upcoming query timestep. Moreover, IDNP can model such interest functions even when interaction sequences are limited and non-consecutive. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-arts on various evaluation metrics.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Large Language models are revolutionizing the conversational recommender systems through their impressive capabilities in instruction comprehension, reasoning, and human interaction. A core factor underlying effective recommendation dialogue is the ability to infer and reason about users' mental states (such as desire, intention, and belief), a cognitive capacity commonly referred to as Theory of Mind. Despite growing interest in evaluating ToM in LLMs, current benchmarks predominantly rely on synthetic narratives inspired by Sally-Anne test, which emphasize physical perception and fail to capture the complexity of mental state inference in realistic conversational settings. Moreover, existing benchmarks often overlook a critical component of human ToM: behavioral prediction, the ability to use inferred mental states to guide strategic decision-making and select appropriate conversational actions for future interactions. To better align LLM-based ToM evaluation with human-like social reasoning, we propose RecToM, a novel benchmark for evaluating ToM abilities in recommendation dialogues. RecToM focuses on two complementary dimensions: Cognitive Inference and Behavioral Prediction. The former focus on understanding what has been communicated by inferring the underlying mental states. The latter emphasizes what should be done next, evaluating whether LLMs can leverage these inferred mental states to predict, select, and assess appropriate dialogue strategies. Extensive experiments on state-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate that RecToM poses a significant challenge. While the models exhibit partial competence in recognizing mental states, they struggle to maintain coherent, strategic ToM reasoning throughout dynamic recommendation dialogues, particularly in tracking evolving intentions and aligning conversational strategies with inferred mental states.

Future link prediction is a fundamental challenge in various real-world dynamic systems. To address this, numerous temporal graph neural networks (temporal GNNs) and benchmark datasets have been developed. However, these datasets often feature excessive repeated edges and lack complex sequential dynamics, a key characteristic inherent in many real-world applications such as recommender systems and ``Who-To-Follow'' on social networks. This oversight has led existing methods to inadvertently downplay the importance of learning sequential dynamics, focusing primarily on predicting repeated edges. In this study, we demonstrate that existing methods, such as GraphMixer and DyGFormer, are inherently incapable of learning simple sequential dynamics, such as ``a user who has followed OpenAI and Anthropic is more likely to follow AI at Meta next.'' Motivated by this issue, we introduce the Temporal Graph Benchmark with Sequential Dynamics (TGB-Seq), a new benchmark carefully curated to minimize repeated edges, challenging models to learn sequential dynamics and generalize to unseen edges. TGB-Seq comprises large real-world datasets spanning diverse domains, including e-commerce interactions, movie ratings, business reviews, social networks, citation networks and web link networks. Benchmarking experiments reveal that current methods usually suffer significant performance degradation and incur substantial training costs on TGB-Seq, posing new challenges and opportunities for future research. TGB-Seq datasets, leaderboards, and example codes are available at https://tgb-seq.github.io/.

We present Palm, a solution to the Long-Term Action Anticipation (LTA) task utilizing vision-language and large language models. Given an input video with annotated action periods, the LTA task aims to predict possible future actions. We hypothesize that an optimal solution should capture the interdependency between past and future actions, and be able to infer future actions based on the structure and dependency encoded in the past actions. Large language models have demonstrated remarkable commonsense-based reasoning ability. Inspired by that, Palm chains an image captioning model and a large language model. It predicts future actions based on frame descriptions and action labels extracted from the input videos. Our method outperforms other participants in the EGO4D LTA challenge and achieves the best performance in terms of action prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/DanDoge/Palm

Spatio-temporal scene graphs represent interactions in a video by decomposing scenes into individual objects and their pair-wise temporal relationships. Long-term anticipation of the fine-grained pair-wise relationships between objects is a challenging problem. To this end, we introduce the task of Scene Graph Anticipation (SGA). We adapt state-of-the-art scene graph generation methods as baselines to anticipate future pair-wise relationships between objects and propose a novel approach SceneSayer. In SceneSayer, we leverage object-centric representations of relationships to reason about the observed video frames and model the evolution of relationships between objects. We take a continuous time perspective and model the latent dynamics of the evolution of object interactions using concepts of NeuralODE and NeuralSDE, respectively. We infer representations of future relationships by solving an Ordinary Differential Equation and a Stochastic Differential Equation, respectively. Extensive experimentation on the Action Genome dataset validates the efficacy of the proposed methods.

As robots increasingly operate in human-populated environments, anticipating human intentions is essential for enabling proactive and socially aware behavior. Automatic anticipation of human-robot interactions is thus emerging as a crucial perception challenge for embodied agents. To this end, we introduce HUI360, the largest dataset for human-robot interaction anticipation in the wild and its set of baselines. The dataset was collected from a mobile robot, in the wild, over multiple days within a 3-month period, and in several environments, capturing natural, spontaneous behaviors from both passersby and users, and encompassing a diverse range of individuals. This variety enables evaluating and improving the generalization capabilities of interaction anticipation models. We designed a pipeline and share code for automatic interaction annotation in arbitrary 360-degree equirectangular videos, along with interfaces for manual refinement. Using this pipeline, we release the HUI360 open set of 1M pre-processed annotations, including detailed 2D poses, facial keypoints, and segmentation masks, obtained using state-of-the-art computer vision methods and manually curated to ensure high-quality tracking and interaction annotation. Additionally, we release the raw panoptic 360-degree images captured from the robot's egocentric viewpoint (on demand, for research purpose only in compliance with GDPR). Finally, we establish benchmark baselines for interaction anticipation, including the first cross-dataset evaluations for this task: to this end, we also release 6M annotations for another existing in-the-wild outdoor dataset collected from a mobile robot (SSUP-HRI). Dataset and code can be found at https://hucebot.github.io/hui360.

Item recommendation (the task of predicting if a user may interact with new items from the catalogue in a recommendation system) and link prediction (the task of identifying missing links in a knowledge graph) have long been regarded as distinct problems. In this work, we show that the item recommendation problem can be seen as an instance of the link prediction problem, where entities in the graph represent users and items, and the task consists of predicting missing instances of the relation type <<interactsWith>>. In a preliminary attempt to demonstrate the assumption, we decide to test three popular factorisation-based link prediction models on the item recommendation task, showing that their predictive accuracy is competitive with ten state-of-the-art recommendation models. The purpose is to show how the former may be seamlessly and effectively applied to the recommendation task without any specific modification to their architectures. Finally, while beginning to unveil the key reasons behind the recommendation performance of the selected link prediction models, we explore different settings for their hyper-parameter values, paving the way for future directions.

Capturing high-dimensional social interactions and feasible futures is essential for predicting trajectories. To address this complex nature, several attempts have been devoted to reducing the dimensionality of the output variables via parametric curve fitting such as the B\'ezier curve and B-spline function. However, these functions, which originate in computer graphics fields, are not suitable to account for socially acceptable human dynamics. In this paper, we present EigenTrajectory (ET), a trajectory prediction approach that uses a novel trajectory descriptor to form a compact space, known here as ET space, in place of Euclidean space, for representing pedestrian movements. We first reduce the complexity of the trajectory descriptor via a low-rank approximation. We transform the pedestrians' history paths into our ET space represented by spatio-temporal principle components, and feed them into off-the-shelf trajectory forecasting models. The inputs and outputs of the models as well as social interactions are all gathered and aggregated in the corresponding ET space. Lastly, we propose a trajectory anchor-based refinement method to cover all possible futures in the proposed ET space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our EigenTrajectory predictor can significantly improve both the prediction accuracy and reliability of existing trajectory forecasting models on public benchmarks, indicating that the proposed descriptor is suited to represent pedestrian behaviors. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/EigenTrajectory .

We present a novel approach for long-term human trajectory prediction in indoor human-centric environments, which is essential for long-horizon robot planning in these environments. State-of-the-art human trajectory prediction methods are limited by their focus on collision avoidance and short-term planning, and their inability to model complex interactions of humans with the environment. In contrast, our approach overcomes these limitations by predicting sequences of human interactions with the environment and using this information to guide trajectory predictions over a horizon of up to 60s. We leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) to predict interactions with the environment by conditioning the LLM prediction on rich contextual information about the scene. This information is given as a 3D Dynamic Scene Graph that encodes the geometry, semantics, and traversability of the environment into a hierarchical representation. We then ground these interaction sequences into multi-modal spatio-temporal distributions over human positions using a probabilistic approach based on continuous-time Markov Chains. To evaluate our approach, we introduce a new semi-synthetic dataset of long-term human trajectories in complex indoor environments, which also includes annotations of human-object interactions. We show in thorough experimental evaluations that our approach achieves a 54% lower average negative log-likelihood and a 26.5% lower Best-of-20 displacement error compared to the best non-privileged (i.e., evaluated in a zero-shot fashion on the dataset) baselines for a time horizon of 60s.

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

The task of collaborative human pose forecasting stands for predicting the future poses of multiple interacting people, given those in previous frames. Predicting two people in interaction, instead of each separately, promises better performance, due to their body-body motion correlations. But the task has remained so far primarily unexplored. In this paper, we review the progress in human pose forecasting and provide an in-depth assessment of the single-person practices that perform best for 2-body collaborative motion forecasting. Our study confirms the positive impact of frequency input representations, space-time separable and fully-learnable interaction adjacencies for the encoding GCN and FC decoding. Other single-person practices do not transfer to 2-body, so the proposed best ones do not include hierarchical body modeling or attention-based interaction encoding. We further contribute a novel initialization procedure for the 2-body spatial interaction parameters of the encoder, which benefits performance and stability. Altogether, our proposed 2-body pose forecasting best practices yield a performance improvement of 21.9% over the state-of-the-art on the most recent ExPI dataset, whereby the novel initialization accounts for 3.5%. See our project page at https://www.pinlab.org/bestpractices2body

Although large language model (LLM) conversational systems process millions of multi-turn dialogues daily, they remain fundamentally reactive: they respond only after the user types a query. A key step toward proactive interaction is next-query prediction, which anticipates the user's subsequent query based solely on the preceding dialogue. Progress on this task is hindered by the lack of dedicated benchmarks and a fundamental efficiency--quality trade-off: naively concatenating full dialogue history incurs linearly growing token consumption, while truncating to the latest turn discards crucial cross-turn context. Our key insight is that accurate prediction does not require re-reading raw history; it suffices to track the user's evolving intent trajectory across topics, unresolved needs, and interest shifts. We propose OnePred, which maintains a recursively updated memory as its sole cross-turn context, bounding the per-turn cost independently of conversation length. We train the model via a two-stage reinforcement learning pipeline that first teaches what to predict, then what to compress, shaping the memory into a prediction-oriented intent chain. To establish a rigorous testbed, we introduce NQP-Bench, spanning three diverse subsets. Experiments demonstrate that OnePred reduces per-turn token consumption by up to 22times compared to full-history inputs while consistently exceeding all baselines in prediction quality, with larger gains on longer conversations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZBWpro/OnePred.

While Late Interaction models exhibit strong retrieval performance, many of their underlying dynamics remain understudied, potentially hiding performance bottlenecks. In this work, we focus on two topics in Late Interaction retrieval: a length bias that arises when using multi-vector scoring, and the similarity distribution beyond the best scores pooled by the MaxSim operator. We analyze these behaviors for state-of-the-art models on the NanoBEIR benchmark. Results show that while the theoretical length bias of causal Late Interaction models holds in practice, bi-directional models can also suffer from it in extreme cases. We also note that no significant similarity trend lies beyond the top-1 document token, validating that the MaxSim operator efficiently exploits the token-level similarity scores.

Demystifying the interactions among multiple agents from their past trajectories is fundamental to precise and interpretable trajectory prediction. However, previous works mainly consider static, pair-wise interactions with limited relational reasoning. To promote more comprehensive interaction modeling and relational reasoning, we propose DynGroupNet, a dynamic-group-aware network, which can i) model time-varying interactions in highly dynamic scenes; ii) capture both pair-wise and group-wise interactions; and iii) reason both interaction strength and category without direct supervision. Based on DynGroupNet, we further design a prediction system to forecast socially plausible trajectories with dynamic relational reasoning. The proposed prediction system leverages the Gaussian mixture model, multiple sampling and prediction refinement to promote prediction diversity, training stability and trajectory smoothness, respectively. Extensive experiments show that: 1)DynGroupNet can capture time-varying group behaviors, infer time-varying interaction category and interaction strength during trajectory prediction without any relation supervision on physical simulation datasets; 2)DynGroupNet outperforms the state-of-the-art trajectory prediction methods by a significant improvement of 22.6%/28.0%, 26.9%/34.9%, 5.1%/13.0% in ADE/FDE on the NBA, NFL Football and SDD datasets and achieve the state-of-the-art performance on the ETH-UCY dataset.

World models predict future observations from current experience and actions, yet prediction can depend on observations seen far in the past. Episodic memory preserves past observations for later recall; however, as memory accumulates, it raises a fundamental question: which memories are useful for the current prediction, and which available retrieval cues should be trusted to find them? This is challenging because fixed criteria based on recency, pose overlap, or visual similarity can be unreliable across environments and queries. We propose Future-Aware Recall (FAR), a framework that learns episodic recall from future-aware predictive supervision and adaptive multi-cue scoring. During training, FAR measures predictive utility by the conditional log-likelihood of the realized future given recalled context, approximated by negative diffusion prediction loss, and uses it to train a retriever that remains future-blind at inference. The retriever learns cue-specific relevance and automatically determines which available retrieval cues, such as time, pose, vision, and audio, to trust for each query when selecting memories. Across three complementary settings, FAR outperforms hand-designed recall even with the same retrieval cues, automatically adapts which available cues to trust, and recalls the right history as the world changes. Together, these results establish FAR as a flexible, principled approach to episodic memory access in world models.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Live future prediction refers to the task of making predictions about real-world events before they unfold. This task is increasingly studied using large language model-based agent systems, and it is important for building agents that can continually learn from the real world. It can provide a large number of prediction questions grounded in diverse real-world events, while preventing answer leakage. To leverage the advantages of future prediction, we present FutureWorld, a live agentic reinforcement learning environment that closes the training loop between prediction, outcome realization, and parameter updates. Specifically, we modify and extend verl-tool, resulting in a new framework that we call verl-tool-future. Unlike standard reinforcement learning training frameworks that rely on immediate rewards, verl-tool-future stores prediction-time rollouts, backfills rewards after real-world outcomes become available, and then replays the completed trajectories for policy update. Across three open-source agents, successive FutureWorld training rounds lead to consistent improvements in prediction accuracy, probabilistic scoring, and calibration, demonstrating that delayed real-world outcome feedback can serve as an effective reinforcement learning signal.

Modern language models are likely to be updated throughout their lifetime rather than trained once and frozen. Each update therefore participates in a recurring cycle: decide which experience to learn from, understand what that update changes, and remain capable of learning from what comes next. We show that these challenges are governed by the same evolving update--behavior interaction. We derive a token- and layer-wise decomposition of how learning from one token changes another prediction. By separating the softmax force, shared readout geometry, and residual connections, it exposes two interaction channels and yields a forward-computable approximation. Following this interaction through time reveals a unified picture of continual adaptation. Positive interaction identifies useful experience; negative interaction produces either concentrated collision or accumulated erosion; over longer horizons, updates reshape the shared geometry mediating future learning signals, reducing their transmission. These predictions lead to effective data selection, mechanism-specific controls for interference, and a readout-based diagnostic of future learnability whose degradation predicts the benefit of restoring the readout. Across models and training regimes, the same local interaction thus explains both what an update changes now and how learning today changes what can be learned tomorrow. This view connects data attribution, forgetting, and plasticity loss as distinct regimes of the same evolving learning dynamics.

Human pose forecasting garners attention for its diverse applications. However, challenges in modeling the multi-modal nature of human motion and intricate interactions among agents persist, particularly with longer timescales and more agents. In this paper, we propose an interaction-aware trajectory-conditioned long-term multi-agent human pose forecasting model, utilizing a coarse-to-fine prediction approach: multi-modal global trajectories are initially forecasted, followed by respective local pose forecasts conditioned on each mode. In doing so, our Trajectory2Pose model introduces a graph-based agent-wise interaction module for a reciprocal forecast of local motion-conditioned global trajectory and trajectory-conditioned local pose. Our model effectively handles the multi-modality of human motion and the complexity of long-term multi-agent interactions, improving performance in complex environments. Furthermore, we address the lack of long-term (6s+) multi-agent (5+) datasets by constructing a new dataset from real-world images and 2D annotations, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed model. State-of-the-art prediction performance on both complex and simpler datasets confirms the generalized effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Jaewoo97/T2P.

In collaborative human-robot manipulation, a robot must predict human intents and adapt its actions accordingly to smoothly execute tasks. However, the human's intent in turn depends on actions the robot takes, creating a chicken-or-egg problem. Prior methods ignore such inter-dependency and instead train marginal intent prediction models independent of robot actions. This is because training conditional models is hard given a lack of paired human-robot interaction datasets. Can we instead leverage large-scale human-human interaction data that is more easily accessible? Our key insight is to exploit a correspondence between human and robot actions that enables transfer learning from human-human to human-robot data. We propose a novel architecture, InteRACT, that pre-trains a conditional intent prediction model on large human-human datasets and fine-tunes on a small human-robot dataset. We evaluate on a set of real-world collaborative human-robot manipulation tasks and show that our conditional model improves over various marginal baselines. We also introduce new techniques to tele-operate a 7-DoF robot arm and collect a diverse range of human-robot collaborative manipulation data, which we open-source.

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

Short Term object-interaction Anticipation consists in detecting the location of the next active objects, the noun and verb categories of the interaction, as well as the time to contact from the observation of egocentric video. This ability is fundamental for wearable assistants to understand user goals and provide timely assistance, or to enable human-robot interaction. In this work, we present a method to improve the performance of STA predictions. Our contributions are two-fold: 1 We propose STAformer and STAformer plus plus, two novel attention-based architectures integrating frame-guided temporal pooling, dual image-video attention, and multiscale feature fusion to support STA predictions from an image-input video pair; 2 We introduce two novel modules to ground STA predictions on human behavior by modeling affordances. First, we integrate an environment affordance model which acts as a persistent memory of interactions that can take place in a given physical scene. We explore how to integrate environment affordances via simple late fusion and with an approach which adaptively learns how to best fuse affordances with end-to-end predictions. Second, we predict interaction hotspots from the observation of hands and object trajectories, increasing confidence in STA predictions localized around the hotspot. Our results show significant improvements on Overall Top-5 mAP, with gain up to +23p.p on Ego4D and +31p.p on a novel set of curated EPIC-Kitchens STA labels. We released the code, annotations, and pre-extracted affordances on Ego4D and EPIC-Kitchens to encourage future research in this area.

Link prediction, a fundamental task on graphs, has proven indispensable in various applications, e.g., friend recommendation, protein analysis, and drug interaction prediction. However, since datasets span a multitude of domains, they could have distinct underlying mechanisms of link formation. Evidence in existing literature underscores the absence of a universally best algorithm suitable for all datasets. In this paper, we endeavor to explore principles of link prediction across diverse datasets from a data-centric perspective. We recognize three fundamental factors critical to link prediction: local structural proximity, global structural proximity, and feature proximity. We then unearth relationships among those factors where (i) global structural proximity only shows effectiveness when local structural proximity is deficient. (ii) The incompatibility can be found between feature and structural proximity. Such incompatibility leads to GNNs for Link Prediction (GNN4LP) consistently underperforming on edges where the feature proximity factor dominates. Inspired by these new insights from a data perspective, we offer practical instruction for GNN4LP model design and guidelines for selecting appropriate benchmark datasets for more comprehensive evaluations.

Forecasting future links is a central task in temporal graph (TG) reasoning, requiring models to leverage historical interactions to predict upcoming ones. Traditional neural approaches, such as temporal graph neural networks, achieve strong performance but lack explainability and cannot be applied to unseen graphs without retraining. Recent studies have begun to explore using large language models (LLMs) for graph reasoning, but most of them are constrained to static graphs or small synthetic TGs and lack the evaluation of the quality of reasoning traces generated by LLMs. In this work, we present Reasoning-Enhanced Learning for Temporal Graphs (ReaL-TG), a reinforcement learning framework that fine-tunes LLMs to perform explainable link forecasting on real-world TGs. ReaL-TG uses outcome-based reward to encourage models to self-explore reasoning strategies from graph structure and to produce explanations that directly justify their predictions. To enable evaluation on LLM-generated reasoning traces, we propose a new evaluation protocol combining ranking metrics with an LLM-as-a-Judge system that assesses both the quality of reasoning and the impact of hallucinations. Experiments with ReaL-TG-4B, obtained by fine-tuning Qwen3-4B under our framework, show that it outperforms much larger frontier LLMs, including GPT-5 mini, on ranking metrics, while producing high-quality explanations confirmed by both the LLM judge and human evaluation.

Next POI recommendation intends to forecast users' immediate future movements given their current status and historical information, yielding great values for both users and service providers. However, this problem is perceptibly complex because various data trends need to be considered together. This includes the spatial locations, temporal contexts, user's preferences, etc. Most existing studies view the next POI recommendation as a sequence prediction problem while omitting the collaborative signals from other users. Instead, we propose a user-agnostic global trajectory flow map and a novel Graph Enhanced Transformer model (GETNext) to better exploit the extensive collaborative signals for a more accurate next POI prediction, and alleviate the cold start problem in the meantime. GETNext incorporates the global transition patterns, user's general preference, spatio-temporal context, and time-aware category embeddings together into a transformer model to make the prediction of user's future moves. With this design, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with a large margin and also sheds light on the cold start challenges within the spatio-temporal involved recommendation problems.

As autonomous driving systems mature, motion forecasting has received increasing attention as a critical requirement for planning. Of particular importance are interactive situations such as merges, unprotected turns, etc., where predicting individual object motion is not sufficient. Joint predictions of multiple objects are required for effective route planning. There has been a critical need for high-quality motion data that is rich in both interactions and annotation to develop motion planning models. In this work, we introduce the most diverse interactive motion dataset to our knowledge, and provide specific labels for interacting objects suitable for developing joint prediction models. With over 100,000 scenes, each 20 seconds long at 10 Hz, our new dataset contains more than 570 hours of unique data over 1750 km of roadways. It was collected by mining for interesting interactions between vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists across six cities within the United States. We use a high-accuracy 3D auto-labeling system to generate high quality 3D bounding boxes for each road agent, and provide corresponding high definition 3D maps for each scene. Furthermore, we introduce a new set of metrics that provides a comprehensive evaluation of both single agent and joint agent interaction motion forecasting models. Finally, we provide strong baseline models for individual-agent prediction and joint-prediction. We hope that this new large-scale interactive motion dataset will provide new opportunities for advancing motion forecasting models.

Short-term action anticipation (STA) in first-person videos is a challenging task that involves understanding the next active object interactions and predicting future actions. Existing action anticipation methods have primarily focused on utilizing features extracted from video clips, but often overlooked the importance of objects and their interactions. To this end, we propose a novel approach that applies a guided attention mechanism between the objects, and the spatiotemporal features extracted from video clips, enhancing the motion and contextual information, and further decoding the object-centric and motion-centric information to address the problem of STA in egocentric videos. Our method, GANO (Guided Attention for Next active Objects) is a multi-modal, end-to-end, single transformer-based network. The experimental results performed on the largest egocentric dataset demonstrate that GANO outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods for the prediction of the next active object label, its bounding box location, the corresponding future action, and the time to contact the object. The ablation study shows the positive contribution of the guided attention mechanism compared to other fusion methods. Moreover, it is possible to improve the next active object location and class label prediction results of GANO by just appending the learnable object tokens with the region of interest embeddings.

The Multi-agent Path Finding (MAPF) problem involves finding collision-free paths for a team of agents in a known, static environment, with important applications in warehouse automation, logistics, or last-mile delivery. To meet the needs of these large-scale applications, current learning-based methods often deploy the same fully trained, decentralized network to all agents to improve scalability. However, such parameter sharing typically results in homogeneous behaviors among agents, which may prevent agents from breaking ties around symmetric conflict (e.g., bottlenecks) and might lead to live-/deadlocks. In this paper, we propose SYLPH, a novel learning-based MAPF framework aimed to mitigate the adverse effects of homogeneity by allowing agents to learn and dynamically select different social behaviors (akin to individual, dynamic roles), without affecting the scalability offered by parameter sharing. Specifically, SYLPH agents learn to select their Social Value Orientation (SVO) given the situation at hand, quantifying their own level of selfishness/altruism, as well as an SVO-conditioned MAPF policy dictating their movement actions. To these ends, each agent first determines the most influential other agent in the system by predicting future conflicts/interactions with other agents. Each agent selects its own SVO towards that agent, and trains its decentralized MAPF policy to enact this SVO until another agent becomes more influential. To further allow agents to consider each others' social preferences, each agent gets access to the SVO value of their neighbors. As a result of this hierarchical decision-making and exchange of social preferences, SYLPH endows agents with the ability to reason about the MAPF task through more latent spaces and nuanced contexts, leading to varied responses that can help break ties around symmetric conflicts. [...]

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

Many existing evaluation benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) quickly become outdated due to the emergence of new models and training data. These benchmarks also fall short in assessing how LLM performance changes over time, as they consist of static questions without a temporal dimension. To address these limitations, we propose using future event prediction as a continuous evaluation method to assess LLMs' temporal generalization and forecasting abilities. Our benchmark, Daily Oracle, automatically generates question-answer (QA) pairs from daily news, challenging LLMs to predict "future" event outcomes. Our findings reveal that as pre-training data becomes outdated, LLM performance degrades over time. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has the potential to enhance prediction accuracy, the performance degradation pattern persists, highlighting the need for continuous model updates.

Short-Term object-interaction Anticipation consists of detecting the location of the next-active objects, the noun and verb categories of the interaction, and the time to contact from the observation of egocentric video. This ability is fundamental for wearable assistants or human robot interaction to understand the user goals, but there is still room for improvement to perform STA in a precise and reliable way. In this work, we improve the performance of STA predictions with two contributions: 1. We propose STAformer, a novel attention-based architecture integrating frame guided temporal pooling, dual image-video attention, and multiscale feature fusion to support STA predictions from an image-input video pair. 2. We introduce two novel modules to ground STA predictions on human behavior by modeling affordances.First, we integrate an environment affordance model which acts as a persistent memory of interactions that can take place in a given physical scene. Second, we predict interaction hotspots from the observation of hands and object trajectories, increasing confidence in STA predictions localized around the hotspot. Our results show significant relative Overall Top-5 mAP improvements of up to +45% on Ego4D and +42% on a novel set of curated EPIC-Kitchens STA labels. We will release the code, annotations, and pre extracted affordances on Ego4D and EPIC- Kitchens to encourage future research in this area.

Humans possess the remarkable ability to foresee the future to a certain extent based on present observations, a skill we term as foresight minds. However, this capability remains largely under explored within existing Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), hindering their capacity to learn the fundamental principles of how things operate and the intentions behind the observed subjects. To address this issue, we introduce the integration of future modeling into the existing learning frameworks of MLLMs. By utilizing the subject trajectory, a highly structured representation of a consecutive frame sequence, as a learning objective, we aim to bridge the gap between the past and the future. We propose two innovative methods to empower MLLMs with foresight minds, Foresight Pre-Training (FPT) and Foresight Instruction-Tuning (FIT), which are inspired by the modern learning paradigm of LLMs. Specifically, FPT jointly training various tasks centered on trajectories, enabling MLLMs to learn how to attend and predict entire trajectories from a given initial observation. Then, FIT requires MLLMs to first predict trajectories of related objects and then reason about potential future events based on them. Aided by FPT and FIT, we build a novel and unified MLLM named Merlin that supports multi-images input and analysis about potential actions of multiple objects for the future reasoning. Experimental results show Merlin powerful foresight minds with impressive performance on both future reasoning and visual comprehension tasks.

Contextual forecasting seeks to improve time series forecasting by incorporating forward-looking information, such as planned events, external conditions, and expert expectations. However, reliable evaluation remains difficult: existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage, lack standardized history-future splits, or provide text that is not guaranteed to inform the future. We introduce GIFT-Eval-CTX, a benchmark that isolates whether forecasting methods can translate verified future information into accurate numerical trajectories. Built upon GIFT-Eval, GIFT-Eval-CTX contains 10,000 instances across 20 datasets. Each instance provides structured effects derived from the realized future: Macro effects describe horizon-wide behavior, while Micro effects specify localized changes. We construct these annotations with an agentic pipeline combining LLM-based discovery and deterministic code validation. We benchmark TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and tool-using agentic systems. The results show that structured effects reduce aggregate relative MASE by 40.7% for GPT-5.6 Sol and 29.6% for Claude Opus 4.8 relative to history-only prompting. The evaluated MoiraiAgent system achieves the best overall result. We further analyze the contributions of structured effects and agentic systems to performance, and identify opportunities for future research.

Can we better anticipate an actor's future actions (e.g. mix eggs) by knowing what commonly happens after his/her current action (e.g. crack eggs)? What if we also know the longer-term goal of the actor (e.g. making egg fried rice)? The long-term action anticipation (LTA) task aims to predict an actor's future behavior from video observations in the form of verb and noun sequences, and it is crucial for human-machine interaction. We propose to formulate the LTA task from two perspectives: a bottom-up approach that predicts the next actions autoregressively by modeling temporal dynamics; and a top-down approach that infers the goal of the actor and plans the needed procedure to accomplish the goal. We hypothesize that large language models (LLMs), which have been pretrained on procedure text data (e.g. recipes, how-tos), have the potential to help LTA from both perspectives. It can help provide the prior knowledge on the possible next actions, and infer the goal given the observed part of a procedure, respectively. To leverage the LLMs, we propose a two-stage framework, AntGPT. It first recognizes the actions already performed in the observed videos and then asks an LLM to predict the future actions via conditioned generation, or to infer the goal and plan the whole procedure by chain-of-thought prompting. Empirical results on the Ego4D LTA v1 and v2 benchmarks, EPIC-Kitchens-55, as well as EGTEA GAZE+ demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach. AntGPT achieves state-of-the-art performance on all above benchmarks, and can successfully infer the goal and thus perform goal-conditioned "counterfactual" prediction via qualitative analysis. Code and model will be released at https://brown-palm.github.io/AntGPT

Next-token prediction serves as the foundational learning task enabling reasoning in LLMs. But what should the learning task be when aiming to equip MLLMs with temporal reasoning capabilities over video inputs? Existing tasks such as video question answering often rely on annotations from humans or much stronger MLLMs, while video captioning tends to entangle temporal reasoning with spatial information. To address this gap, we propose next-event prediction (NEP), a learning task that harnesses future video segments as a rich, self-supervised signal to foster temporal reasoning. We segment each video into past and future frames: the MLLM takes the past frames as input and predicts a summary of events derived from the future frames, thereby encouraging the model to reason temporally in order to complete the task. To support this task, we curate V1-33K, a dataset comprising 33,000 automatically extracted video segments spanning diverse real-world scenarios. We further explore a range of video instruction-tuning strategies to study their effects on temporal reasoning. To evaluate progress, we introduce FutureBench to assess coherence in predicting unseen future events. Experiments validate that NEP offers a scalable and effective training paradigm for fostering temporal reasoning in MLLMs.

Effective interaction modeling and behavior prediction of dynamic agents play a significant role in interactive motion planning for autonomous robots. Although existing methods have improved prediction accuracy, few research efforts have been devoted to enhancing prediction model interpretability and out-of-distribution (OOD) generalizability. This work addresses these two challenging aspects by designing a variational auto-encoder framework that integrates graph-based representations and time-sequence models to efficiently capture spatio-temporal relations between interactive agents and predict their dynamics. Our model infers dynamic interaction graphs in a latent space augmented with interpretable edge features that characterize the interactions. Moreover, we aim to enhance model interpretability and performance in OOD scenarios by disentangling the latent space of edge features, thereby strengthening model versatility and robustness. We validate our approach through extensive experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets. The results show superior performance compared to existing methods in modeling spatio-temporal relations, motion prediction, and identifying time-invariant latent features.

World models must predict how an environment evolves under sequences of actions, enabling agents to compare possible futures and reason about counterfactual actions before acting. Long-horizon prediction is commonly obtained by recursively applying a one-step transition model, but intermediate errors can compound over time. Multi-step dynamics models instead condition on a sequence of future actions and predict their consequences directly, but become harder to learn as horizon grows: the model must track interacting state changes across the trajectory, endpoint supervision provides weak credit assignment, and intermediate predictions can remain plausible while losing information needed for later states. We show that these challenges can be addressed by casting the internal evolution of a multi-step transition as structured reasoning over textual world states: reasoning over sparse state changes reduces the burden of state tracking, a predictive-gain objective rewards the learned state for improving over a matched predictor that conditions on raw history instead, and intermediate predictive rewards supervise each state along the trajectory. Because these intermediate states are explicit textual representations of the world, they provide semantically meaningful targets that can be inspected, scored, and corrected during training. Across ScienceWorld, Jericho, and CEO-Bench, our approach achieves the strongest average long-horizon performance against recursive and non-recursive baselines that condition directly on raw history, with gains increasing at longer horizons. In a controlled counterfactual study, our model is also the only one with statistically significant sensitivity to future actions.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain rich temporal dynamics that conventional encoding approaches fail to adequately capture. While Large Language Models (LLMs) show promise for EHR modeling, they struggle to reason about sequential clinical events and temporal dependencies. We propose Next Event Prediction (NEP), a framework that enhances LLMs' temporal reasoning through autoregressive fine-tuning on clinical event sequences. By reformulating EHRs as timestamped event chains and predicting future medical events, NEP explicitly models disease progression patterns and causal relationships. Extensive evaluations across oncology survival prediction and clinical diagnosis tasks demonstrate NEP's superiority, outperforming specialized EHR models by 4.6% AUROC and general-purpose LLMs by 7.2% C-index in temporal reasoning tasks. Our analyses reveal dual benefits: state-of-the-art prediction accuracy combined with clinically interpretable attention patterns that align with known disease pathways.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models often treat main-view and wrist-view observations as parallel visual inputs, overlooking their distinct roles in robot manipulation. Fine-grained manipulation, however, benefits from anticipating how wrist-local interactions may evolve under the global task context. To address this limitation, we present World-to-Wrist VLA (W2-VLA), a VLA model for fine-grained robot manipulation with task-conditioned future wrist modeling. Given current multi-view observations and a task instruction, W2-VLA contextualizes a set of latent modeling tokens as a compact interface between the vision-language model and the wrist predictor. Conditioned on this interface and the observed wrist history, the predictor forecasts future wrist latents, which are transformed into future-aware context for action prediction. In addition, we introduce W2-CoT, a synthesis pipeline that produces structured annotations describing manipulation progress, physical transition cues, and wrist-local evidence. These annotations provide auxiliary supervision that shapes the task-conditioned latent interface. Experiments on LIBERO, RoboTwin 2.0, and real-world manipulation tasks demonstrate improved fine-grained and contact-sensitive manipulation across both single-arm and bimanual settings, while maintaining action-generation rates above 80 Hz.

This paper addresses a novel task of anticipating 3D human-object interactions (HOIs). Most existing research on HOI synthesis lacks comprehensive whole-body interactions with dynamic objects, e.g., often limited to manipulating small or static objects. Our task is significantly more challenging, as it requires modeling dynamic objects with various shapes, capturing whole-body motion, and ensuring physically valid interactions. To this end, we propose InterDiff, a framework comprising two key steps: (i) interaction diffusion, where we leverage a diffusion model to encode the distribution of future human-object interactions; (ii) interaction correction, where we introduce a physics-informed predictor to correct denoised HOIs in a diffusion step. Our key insight is to inject prior knowledge that the interactions under reference with respect to contact points follow a simple pattern and are easily predictable. Experiments on multiple human-object interaction datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for this task, capable of producing realistic, vivid, and remarkably long-term 3D HOI predictions.

Many high-stakes decisions depend on forecasts made before outcomes are known. In this future prediction setting, the central challenge is that public evidence evolves over time, while the main supervision signal arrives only after resolution: the realized outcome mainly assesses final correctness, offering only coarse guidance on what to track, what to verify, and which judgments to leave uncertain along the way. Our key observation is that revisiting the same unresolved question over time creates informative temporal contrasts across evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, exposing what earlier attempts missed before resolution and yielding a diagnostic signal we call the pre-resolution signal. We instantiate this idea in Milkyway, a future prediction agent with a persistent future prediction harness, an editable external state that stores reusable procedural guidance across revisits to the same unresolved question. As the same unresolved question is revisited, Milkyway extracts pre-resolution signals from evolving evidence and repeated forecasts, uses them to update the harness, and improves later forecasts on that question before resolution. After resolution, the realized outcome serves as a post-resolution check of provisional updates. On the FutureX and FutureWorld benchmarks, Milkyway achieves strong performance against competitive baselines, and a mechanism study suggests that the gains stem from harness evolution driven by pre-resolution signals rather than repeated prediction alone.

We introduce Forecast-Dojo, a replayable environment for benchmarking and training LLM forecasting agents. It combines resolved prediction-market questions with dated news, allowing agents to research an event and revisit their predictions at successive historical dates. The same tasks and tools support repeated evaluation, collection of training interactions, and feedback from recorded outcomes without waiting for new events to resolve. Forecast-Dojo contains 1,568 Polymarket events, split by time into training and evaluation periods, and 18.8M dated news articles. In an evaluation of 12 models, research tools lower Brier score for all 12. Forecasts also improve as events unfold, with the largest gains at steps where more newly dated evidence is recorded. Every model still trails historical market forecasts in both Brier score and accuracy. A belief notebook carried between dates lowers research cost but does not consistently improve forecast quality. Beyond evaluation, Forecast-Dojo provides interaction trajectories and outcome feedback for agent learning, with supervised fine-tuning as a proof of concept.

Expert demonstrations show how to complete contact-rich tasks, but provide limited coverage of how interaction forces respond to different actions. Task-agnostic play provides broader experience of contact dynamics without specifying task goals. To fully leverage these two types of data, we introduce ForceWAM, a force world action model that decouples knowledge of task-compatible interaction outcomes from knowledge of how local actions change contact. A world model learns from successful demonstrations to jointly predict future video and six-axis force/torque trajectories. Together, these futures describe the expected evolution of motion and contact during the task. A separate inverse dynamics model (IDM) learns from both task and play, mapping current observations and recorded visual-wrench futures to their associated robot actions. Play data thus provide knowledge of force responses for goal-directed execution. At deployment, the IDM reactively translates generated futures into actions, reusing them with fresh wrench feedback between world-model updates. Across real-robot force-regulated sliding, box flipping with and without disturbances, and ring placement, ForceWAM achieves 85-95% mean success, surpassing world-modeling and reactive baselines. Our experiments further show that adding task-agnostic play data improves success by 15-45 percentage points, demonstrating its value for learning contact-rich execution. Project page and code are available at https://force-wam.github.io/.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Next-token prediction (NTP) has driven the success of large language models (LLMs), but it struggles with long-horizon reasoning, planning, and creative writing, with these limitations largely attributed to teacher-forced training. Multi-token prediction (MTP) partially mitigates these issues by predicting several future tokens at once, but it mostly captures short-range dependencies and offers limited improvement. We propose future summary prediction (FSP), which trains an auxiliary head to predict a compact representation of the long-term future, preserving information relevant for long-form generations. We explore two variants of FSP: handcrafted summaries, for example, a bag of words summary of the future sequence, and learned summaries, which use embeddings produced by a reverse language model trained from right-to-left order. Large-scale pretraining experiments (3B and 8B-parameter models) demonstrate that FSP provides improvements over both NTP and MTP across math, reasoning, and coding benchmarks.

Reliable contact-rich manipulation requires detecting execution deviations early enough for corrective action. Yet most monitoring methods are reactive, identifying anomalies only after they become observable. Anticipating such anomalies is challenging because visual observations only partially reveal physical interaction, while planned actions describe intended motion rather than their actual physical consequences. We address this problem with MAIA, a multimodal framework for anomaly anticipation. Its vision-action-force world model learns nominal interaction dynamics and predicts the visual and force responses of planned actions, while a lightweight anomaly head predicts impending interaction anomalies. To enable systematic evaluation, we introduce CRIA, a real-world multimodal dataset of 2,852 trajectories spanning 18 contact-rich manipulation tasks, with frame-level annotations of anomaly onset and evolution. Experiments on both seen and novel tasks show that MAIA achieves more accurate anomaly discrimination than representative baselines while providing earlier warnings, with bACC scores of 0.765 and 0.710 and median anticipation lead times of 28.0 and 25.1 steps, respectively. Moreover, using these predictions for anomaly-aware action selection improves end-to-end task success from 52.6% to 61.5% without retraining the underlying manipulation policy. These results highlight the value of modeling future physical consequences for proactive anomaly anticipation.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

Higher-order interactions (HOIs) are ubiquitous in real-world complex systems and applications. Investigation of deep learning for HOIs, thus, has become a valuable agenda for the data mining and machine learning communities. As networks of HOIs are expressed mathematically as hypergraphs, hypergraph neural networks (HNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for representation learning on hypergraphs. Given the emerging trend, we present the first survey dedicated to HNNs, with an in-depth and step-by-step guide. Broadly, the present survey overviews HNN architectures, training strategies, and applications. First, we break existing HNNs down into four design components: (i) input features, (ii) input structures, (iii) message-passing schemes, and (iv) training strategies. Second, we examine how HNNs address and learn HOIs with each of their components. Third, we overview the recent applications of HNNs in recommendation, bioinformatics and medical science, time series analysis, and computer vision. Lastly, we conclude with a discussion on limitations and future directions.

Chit-chat models are known to have several problems: they lack specificity, do not display a consistent personality and are often not very captivating. In this work we present the task of making chit-chat more engaging by conditioning on profile information. We collect data and train models to (i) condition on their given profile information; and (ii) information about the person they are talking to, resulting in improved dialogues, as measured by next utterance prediction. Since (ii) is initially unknown our model is trained to engage its partner with personal topics, and we show the resulting dialogue can be used to predict profile information about the interlocutors.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

"An idea is nothing more nor less than a new combination of old elements" (Young, J.W.). The widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) and publicly available ChatGPT have marked a significant turning point in the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into people's everyday lives. This study explores the capability of LLMs in generating novel research ideas based on information from research papers. We conduct a thorough examination of 4 LLMs in five domains (e.g., Chemistry, Computer, Economics, Medical, and Physics). We found that the future research ideas generated by Claude-2 and GPT-4 are more aligned with the author's perspective than GPT-3.5 and Gemini. We also found that Claude-2 generates more diverse future research ideas than GPT-4, GPT-3.5, and Gemini 1.0. We further performed a human evaluation of the novelty, relevancy, and feasibility of the generated future research ideas. This investigation offers insights into the evolving role of LLMs in idea generation, highlighting both its capability and limitations. Our work contributes to the ongoing efforts in evaluating and utilizing language models for generating future research ideas. We make our datasets and codes publicly available.

Dynamics prediction, which is the problem of predicting future states of scene objects based on current and prior states, is drawing increasing attention as an instance of learning physics. To solve this problem, Region Proposal Convolutional Interaction Network (RPCIN), a vision-based model, was proposed and achieved state-of-the-art performance in long-term prediction. RPCIN only takes raw images and simple object descriptions, such as the bounding box and segmentation mask of each object, as input. However, despite its success, the model's capability can be compromised under conditions of environment misalignment. In this paper, we investigate two challenging conditions for environment misalignment: Cross-Domain and Cross-Context by proposing four datasets that are designed for these challenges: SimB-Border, SimB-Split, BlenB-Border, and BlenB-Split. The datasets cover two domains and two contexts. Using RPCIN as a probe, experiments conducted on the combinations of the proposed datasets reveal potential weaknesses of the vision-based long-term dynamics prediction model. Furthermore, we propose a promising direction to mitigate the Cross-Domain challenge and provide concrete evidence supporting such a direction, which provides dramatic alleviation of the challenge on the proposed datasets.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Despite recent progress of VLA foundation models, the disparity between laboratory conditions and real-world applications continues to impede their practical implementation. To bridge this gap, we present LingBot-VLA 2.0, which advances LingBot-VLA through improvements in three functional domains. (1) Generalization across tasks and embodiments. Compared to the previous version, we revamp the data processing pipeline and curate around 60,000 hours of data for pretraining, including 50,000 hours of robot trajectories spanning 20 robot configurations and 10,000 hours of egocentric human videos. (2) Expanded action space in addition to dual-arm hardware platforms. In particular, our system accommodates degrees of freedom for the heads, waists, mobile bases, and dexterous hands, thereby empowering the robots to tackle more complex tasks in practical scenarios. (3) Predictive dynamics modeling for improved temporal reasoning. Specifically, we formulate future prediction as a proxy task, facilitated by a video representation model for semantic priors and a depth estimation model for geometric cues. Evaluations on the GM-100 benchmark, conducted in a generalist setting, validate the beneficial impact of these proposed modifications. Furthermore, benefiting from the expanded pretraining data that covers whole-body degrees of freedom, LingBot-VLA-2.0 demonstrates strong cross-embodiment long-horizon mobile manipulation capability across the two robotic platforms.

Accurate prediction of human behavior is essential for robust and safe human-AI collaboration. However, existing approaches for modeling people are often data-hungry and brittle because they either make unrealistic assumptions about rationality or are too computationally demanding to adapt rapidly. Our key insight is that many everyday social interactions may follow predictable patterns; efficient "scripts" that minimize cognitive load for actors and observers, e.g., "wait for the green light, then go." We propose modeling these routines as behavioral programs instantiated in computer code rather than policies conditioned on beliefs and desires. We introduce ROTE, a novel algorithm that leverages both large language models (LLMs) for synthesizing a hypothesis space of behavioral programs, and probabilistic inference for reasoning about uncertainty over that space. We test ROTE in a suite of gridworld tasks and a large-scale embodied household simulator. ROTE predicts human and AI behaviors from sparse observations, outperforming competitive baselines -- including behavior cloning and LLM-based methods -- by as much as 50% in terms of in-sample accuracy and out-of-sample generalization. By treating action understanding as a program synthesis problem, ROTE opens a path for AI systems to efficiently and effectively predict human behavior in the real-world.

Group conversations are fundamental to human collaboration, yet standard large language models (LLMs) still struggle with the complexities of multi-party interaction. This challenge persists in part because existing group conversation datasets are often limited to short-term lab settings with contrived tasks, failing to capture the long-term social dynamics of real-world teams. To bridge this gap, we introduce TIDES, a high-resolution longitudinal dataset tracking 12 university project teams over a full semester. Comprising 75,971 utterances in both English and Korean from in-person meetings, TIDES provides a naturalistic record of teams working on self-managed projects. Our socio-structural annotations-covering interaction types, emergent roles, and development stages-allow for modeling of team evolution over months. Experiments show that fine-tuning on TIDES improves next-speaker prediction by 13.8 percentage points over a bigram baseline (64.53%) and yields performance comparable to strong proprietary zero-shot models. The model also comes within 2.1 percentage points of the published state of the art on the AMI Meeting Corpus while using approximately 42% less training data. However, human evaluations suggest that better next-speaker prediction does not necessarily yield more natural or coherent utterances, as fine-tuned models were generally less preferred than vanilla models. This potential mismatch motivates further study of how structural modeling can support natural multi-party generation.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Anticipating actions before they are executed is crucial for a wide range of practical applications, including autonomous driving and robotics. In this paper, we study the egocentric action anticipation task, which predicts future action seconds before it is performed for egocentric videos. Previous approaches focus on summarizing the observed content and directly predicting future action based on past observations. We believe it would benefit the action anticipation if we could mine some cues to compensate for the missing information of the unobserved frames. We then propose to decompose the action anticipation into a series of future feature predictions. We imagine how the visual feature changes in the near future and then predicts future action labels based on these imagined representations. Differently, our ImagineRNN is optimized in a contrastive learning way instead of feature regression. We utilize a proxy task to train the ImagineRNN, i.e., selecting the correct future states from distractors. We further improve ImagineRNN by residual anticipation, i.e., changing its target to predicting the feature difference of adjacent frames instead of the frame content. This promotes the network to focus on our target, i.e., the future action, as the difference between adjacent frame features is more important for forecasting the future. Extensive experiments on two large-scale egocentric action datasets validate the effectiveness of our method. Our method significantly outperforms previous methods on both the seen test set and the unseen test set of the EPIC Kitchens Action Anticipation Challenge.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

We address the problem of accurate capture and expressive modelling of interactive behaviors happening between two persons in daily scenarios. Different from previous works which either only consider one person or focus on conversational gestures, we propose to simultaneously model the activities of two persons, and target objective-driven, dynamic, and coherent interactions which often span long duration. To this end, we capture a new dataset dubbed InterAct, which is composed of 241 motion sequences where two persons perform a realistic scenario over the whole sequence. The audios, body motions, and facial expressions of both persons are all captured in our dataset. We also demonstrate the first diffusion model based approach that directly estimates the interactive motions between two persons from their audios alone. All the data and code will be available at: https://hku-cg.github.io/interact.

Despite the successful application of Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) for tasks such as dynamic node classification and link prediction, they still perform poorly on the task of dynamic node affinity prediction -- where the goal is to predict 'how much' two nodes will interact in the future. In fact, simple heuristic approaches such as persistent forecasts and moving averages over ground-truth labels significantly and consistently outperform TGNs. Building on this observation, we find that computing heuristics over messages is an equally competitive approach, outperforming TGN and all current temporal graph (TG) models on dynamic node affinity prediction. In this paper, we prove that no formulation of TGN can represent persistent forecasting or moving averages over messages, and propose to enhance the expressivity of TGNs by adding source-target identification to each interaction event message. We show that this modification is required to represent persistent forecasting, moving averages, and the broader class of autoregressive models over messages. Our proposed method, TGNv2, significantly outperforms TGN and all current TG models on all Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) dynamic node affinity prediction datasets.

We introduce SessionRec, a novel next-session prediction paradigm (NSPP) for generative sequential recommendation, addressing the fundamental misalignment between conventional next-item prediction paradigm (NIPP) and real-world recommendation scenarios. Unlike NIPP's item-level autoregressive generation that contradicts actual session-based user interactions, our framework introduces a session-aware representation learning through hierarchical sequence aggregation (intra/inter-session), reducing attention computation complexity while enabling implicit modeling of massive negative interactions, and a session-based prediction objective that better captures users' diverse interests through multi-item recommendation in next sessions. Moreover, we found that incorporating a rank loss for items within the session under the next session prediction paradigm can significantly improve the ranking effectiveness of generative sequence recommendation models. We also verified that SessionRec exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs. Extensive experiments conducted on public datasets and online A/B test in Meituan App demonstrate the effectiveness of SessionRec. The proposed paradigm establishes new foundations for developing industrial-scale generative recommendation systems through its model-agnostic architecture and computational efficiency.

There are many settings where it is useful to predict and explain the success or failure of a dialogue. Circumplex theory from psychology models the social orientations (e.g., Warm-Agreeable, Arrogant-Calculating) of conversation participants and can be used to predict and explain the outcome of social interactions. Our work is novel in its systematic application of social orientation tags to modeling conversation outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a new data set of dialogue utterances machine-labeled with social orientation tags. We show that social orientation tags improve task performance, especially in low-resource settings, on both English and Chinese language benchmarks. We also demonstrate how social orientation tags help explain the outcomes of social interactions when used in neural models. Based on these results showing the utility of social orientation tags for dialogue outcome prediction tasks, we release our data sets, code, and models that are fine-tuned to predict social orientation tags on dialogue utterances.

Scientific contributions rarely develop in isolation, but instead build upon prior discoveries. We formulate the task of automated technological roadmapping as extracting scientific contributions from scholarly articles and linking them to their prerequisites. We present the Scientific Contribution Graph, a large-scale resource containing 6 million detailed scientific contributions extracted from 655k open-access papers spanning computer science, medicine, biology, physics, chemistry, and other sciences, and connected by 36 million prerequisite edges. We further introduce scientific prerequisite prediction, a scientific discovery task in which models predict which existing technologies can enable future discoveries, and show that contemporary models are rapidly improving on this task, reaching 0.48 MAP when evaluated using temporally-filtered backtesting. We anticipate technological roadmapping resources such as this will support scientific impact assessment and automated scientific discovery.

Understanding human motion behavior is critical for autonomous moving platforms (like self-driving cars and social robots) if they are to navigate human-centric environments. This is challenging because human motion is inherently multimodal: given a history of human motion paths, there are many socially plausible ways that people could move in the future. We tackle this problem by combining tools from sequence prediction and generative adversarial networks: a recurrent sequence-to-sequence model observes motion histories and predicts future behavior, using a novel pooling mechanism to aggregate information across people. We predict socially plausible futures by training adversarially against a recurrent discriminator, and encourage diverse predictions with a novel variety loss. Through experiments on several datasets we demonstrate that our approach outperforms prior work in terms of accuracy, variety, collision avoidance, and computational complexity.

To interact with humans in the world, agents need to understand the diverse types of language that people use, relate them to the visual world, and act based on them. While current agents learn to execute simple language instructions from task rewards, we aim to build agents that leverage diverse language that conveys general knowledge, describes the state of the world, provides interactive feedback, and more. Our key idea is that language helps agents predict the future: what will be observed, how the world will behave, and which situations will be rewarded. This perspective unifies language understanding with future prediction as a powerful self-supervised learning objective. We present Dynalang, an agent that learns a multimodal world model that predicts future text and image representations and learns to act from imagined model rollouts. Unlike traditional agents that use language only to predict actions, Dynalang acquires rich language understanding by using past language also to predict future language, video, and rewards. In addition to learning from online interaction in an environment, Dynalang can be pretrained on datasets of text, video, or both without actions or rewards. From using language hints in grid worlds to navigating photorealistic scans of homes, Dynalang utilizes diverse types of language to improve task performance, including environment descriptions, game rules, and instructions.

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.

Autonomous agents powered by large language models (LLMs) have the potential to enhance human capabilities, assisting with digital tasks from sending emails to performing data analysis. The abilities of existing LLMs at such tasks are often hindered by the lack of high-quality agent data from the corresponding environments they interact with. We propose Learn-by-interact, a data-centric framework to adapt LLM agents to any given environments without human annotations. Learn-by-interact synthesizes trajectories of agent-environment interactions based on documentations, and constructs instructions by summarizing or abstracting the interaction histories, a process called backward construction. We assess the quality of our synthetic data by using them in both training-based scenarios and training-free in-context learning (ICL), where we craft innovative retrieval approaches optimized for agents. Extensive experiments on SWE-bench, WebArena, OSWorld and Spider2-V spanning across realistic coding, web, and desktop environments show the effectiveness of Learn-by-interact in various downstream agentic tasks -- baseline results are improved by up to 12.2\% for ICL with Claude-3.5 and 19.5\% for training with Codestral-22B. We further demonstrate the critical role of backward construction, which provides up to 14.0\% improvement for training. Our ablation studies demonstrate the efficiency provided by our synthesized data in ICL and the superiority of our retrieval pipeline over alternative approaches like conventional retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). We expect that Learn-by-interact will serve as a foundation for agent data synthesis as LLMs are increasingly deployed at real-world environments.

Human-object interaction (HOI) detection aims to comprehend the intricate relationships between humans and objects, predicting <human, action, object> triplets, and serving as the foundation for numerous computer vision tasks. The complexity and diversity of human-object interactions in the real world, however, pose significant challenges for both annotation and recognition, particularly in recognizing interactions within an open world context. This study explores the universal interaction recognition in an open-world setting through the use of Vision-Language (VL) foundation models and large language models (LLMs). The proposed method is dubbed as \textbf{UniHOI}. We conduct a deep analysis of the three hierarchical features inherent in visual HOI detectors and propose a method for high-level relation extraction aimed at VL foundation models, which we call HO prompt-based learning. Our design includes an HO Prompt-guided Decoder (HOPD), facilitates the association of high-level relation representations in the foundation model with various HO pairs within the image. Furthermore, we utilize a LLM (i.e. GPT) for interaction interpretation, generating a richer linguistic understanding for complex HOIs. For open-category interaction recognition, our method supports either of two input types: interaction phrase or interpretive sentence. Our efficient architecture design and learning methods effectively unleash the potential of the VL foundation models and LLMs, allowing UniHOI to surpass all existing methods with a substantial margin, under both supervised and zero-shot settings. The code and pre-trained weights are available at: https://github.com/Caoyichao/UniHOI.

A thorough understanding of the interaction between the target agent and surrounding agents is a prerequisite for accurate trajectory prediction. Although many methods have been explored, they assign correlation coefficients to surrounding agents in a purely learning-based manner. In this study, we present ASPILin, which manually selects interacting agents and replaces the attention scores in Transformer with a newly computed physical correlation coefficient, enhancing the interpretability of interaction modeling. Surprisingly, these simple modifications can significantly improve prediction performance and substantially reduce computational costs. We intentionally simplified our model in other aspects, such as map encoding. Remarkably, experiments conducted on the INTERACTION, highD, and CitySim datasets demonstrate that our method is efficient and straightforward, outperforming other state-of-the-art methods.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Tactile-enhanced vision-language-action (VLA) policies have been introduced for contact-rich manipulation, where critical interaction states are often hidden from vision. Future tactile prediction is a promising way to use touch because it turns tactile outcomes into supervision for action-induced contact dynamics. Yet VLA policies contain representations with different roles, from perceptual encoding to motor prediction, making it unclear where this supervision should be applied. We study this as a representation-alignment problem. Through a linear probe analysis, we find that future tactile states are most predictable from intermediate action-expert features, rather than from vision-language features or final action states. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a lightweight Latent Tactile Predictor (LTP), which predicts compact future tactile embeddings from the identified intermediate representation. By avoiding direct prediction of noisy raw tactile signals, LTP provides an action-outcome grounding signal that aligns intermediate action representations with future contact consequences. Experiments on real-world contact-rich manipulation tasks show that representation-aligned tactile grounding outperforms less aligned or multi-interface tactile prediction, highlighting the importance of where tactile supervision is applied.

Human actions involving hand manipulations are structured according to the making and breaking of hand-object contact, and human visual understanding of action is reliant on anticipation of contact as is demonstrated by pioneering work in cognitive science. Taking inspiration from this, we introduce representations and models centered on contact, which we then use in action prediction and anticipation. We annotate a subset of the EPIC Kitchens dataset to include time-to-contact between hands and objects, as well as segmentations of hands and objects. Using these annotations we train the Anticipation Module, a module producing Contact Anticipation Maps and Next Active Object Segmentations - novel low-level representations providing temporal and spatial characteristics of anticipated near future action. On top of the Anticipation Module we apply Egocentric Object Manipulation Graphs (Ego-OMG), a framework for action anticipation and prediction. Ego-OMG models longer term temporal semantic relations through the use of a graph modeling transitions between contact delineated action states. Use of the Anticipation Module within Ego-OMG produces state-of-the-art results, achieving 1st and 2nd place on the unseen and seen test sets, respectively, of the EPIC Kitchens Action Anticipation Challenge, and achieving state-of-the-art results on the tasks of action anticipation and action prediction over EPIC Kitchens. We perform ablation studies over characteristics of the Anticipation Module to evaluate their utility.

Exposing meaningful and interpretable neural interactions is critical to understanding neural circuits. Inferred neural interactions from neural signals primarily reflect functional interactions. In a long experiment, subject animals may experience different stages defined by the experiment, stimuli, or behavioral states, and hence functional interactions can change over time. To model dynamically changing functional interactions, prior work employs state-switching generalized linear models with hidden Markov models (i.e., HMM-GLMs). However, we argue they lack biological plausibility, as functional interactions are shaped and confined by the underlying anatomical connectome. Here, we propose a novel prior-informed state-switching GLM. We introduce both a Gaussian prior and a one-hot prior over the GLM in each state. The priors are learnable. We will show that the learned prior should capture the state-constant interaction, shedding light on the underlying anatomical connectome and revealing more likely physical neuron interactions. The state-dependent interaction modeled by each GLM offers traceability to capture functional variations across multiple brain states. Our methods effectively recover true interaction structures in simulated data, achieve the highest predictive likelihood with real neural datasets, and render interaction structures and hidden states more interpretable when applied to real neural data.

Visual environments are structured, consisting of distinct objects or entities. These entities have properties -- both visible and latent -- that determine the manner in which they interact with one another. To partition images into entities, deep-learning researchers have proposed structural inductive biases such as slot-based architectures. To model interactions among entities, equivariant graph neural nets (GNNs) are used, but these are not particularly well suited to the task for two reasons. First, GNNs do not predispose interactions to be sparse, as relationships among independent entities are likely to be. Second, GNNs do not factorize knowledge about interactions in an entity-conditional manner. As an alternative, we take inspiration from cognitive science and resurrect a classic approach, production systems, which consist of a set of rule templates that are applied by binding placeholder variables in the rules to specific entities. Rules are scored on their match to entities, and the best fitting rules are applied to update entity properties. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate that this architecture achieves a flexible, dynamic flow of control and serves to factorize entity-specific and rule-based information. This disentangling of knowledge achieves robust future-state prediction in rich visual environments, outperforming state-of-the-art methods using GNNs, and allows for the extrapolation from simple (few object) environments to more complex environments.

Long-term activity forecasting is an especially challenging research problem because it requires understanding the temporal relationships between observed actions, as well as the variability and complexity of human activities. Despite relying on strong supervision via expensive human annotations, state-of-the-art forecasting approaches often generalize poorly to unseen data. To alleviate this issue, we propose Multiscale Video Pretraining (MVP), a novel self-supervised pretraining approach that learns robust representations for forecasting by learning to predict contextualized representations of future video clips over multiple timescales. MVP is based on our observation that actions in videos have a multiscale nature, where atomic actions typically occur at a short timescale and more complex actions may span longer timescales. We compare MVP to state-of-the-art self-supervised video learning approaches on downstream long-term forecasting tasks including long-term action anticipation and video summary prediction. Our comprehensive experiments across the Ego4D and Epic-Kitchens-55/100 datasets demonstrate that MVP out-performs state-of-the-art methods by significant margins. Notably, MVP obtains a relative performance gain of over 20% accuracy in video summary forecasting over existing methods.