Daily Papers

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a crucial issue in recommendation systems. There has been an emergence of various public CTR datasets. However, existing datasets primarily suffer from the following limitations. Firstly, users generally click different types of items from multiple scenarios, and modeling from multiple scenarios can provide a more comprehensive understanding of users. Existing datasets only include data for the same type of items from a single scenario. Secondly, multi-modal features are essential in multi-scenario prediction as they address the issue of inconsistent ID encoding between different scenarios. The existing datasets are based on ID features and lack multi-modal features. Third, a large-scale dataset can provide a more reliable evaluation of models, fully reflecting the performance differences between models. The scale of existing datasets is around 100 million, which is relatively small compared to the real-world CTR prediction. To address these limitations, we propose AntM^{2}C, a Multi-Scenario Multi-Modal CTR dataset based on industrial data from Alipay. Specifically, AntM^{2}C provides the following advantages: 1) It covers CTR data of 5 different types of items, providing insights into the preferences of users for different items, including advertisements, vouchers, mini-programs, contents, and videos. 2) Apart from ID-based features, AntM^{2}C also provides 2 multi-modal features, raw text and image features, which can effectively establish connections between items with different IDs. 3) AntM^{2}C provides 1 billion CTR data with 200 features, including 200 million users and 6 million items. It is currently the largest-scale CTR dataset available. Based on AntM^{2}C, we construct several typical CTR tasks and provide comparisons with baseline methods. The dataset homepage is available at https://www.atecup.cn/home.

Existing knowledge distillation methods typically work by imparting the knowledge of output logits or intermediate feature maps from the teacher network to the student network, which is very successful in multi-class single-label learning. However, these methods can hardly be extended to the multi-label learning scenario, where each instance is associated with multiple semantic labels, because the prediction probabilities do not sum to one and feature maps of the whole example may ignore minor classes in such a scenario. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-label knowledge distillation method. On one hand, it exploits the informative semantic knowledge from the logits by dividing the multi-label learning problem into a set of binary classification problems; on the other hand, it enhances the distinctiveness of the learned feature representations by leveraging the structural information of label-wise embeddings. Experimental results on multiple benchmark datasets validate that the proposed method can avoid knowledge counteraction among labels, thus achieving superior performance against diverse comparing methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/penghui-yang/L2D

The abundance of intestinal flora is closely related to human diseases, but diseases are not caused by a single gut microbe. Instead, they result from the complex interplay of numerous microbial entities. This intricate and implicit connection among gut microbes poses a significant challenge for disease prediction using abundance information from OTU data. Recently, several methods have shown potential in predicting corresponding diseases. However, these methods fail to learn the inner association among gut microbes from different hosts, leading to unsatisfactory performance. In this paper, we present a novel architecture, Unsupervised Multi-graph Merge Adversarial Network (UMMAN). UMMAN can obtain the embeddings of nodes in the Multi-Graph in an unsupervised scenario, so that it helps learn the multiplex association. Our method is the first to combine Graph Neural Network with the task of intestinal flora disease prediction. We employ complex relation-types to construct the Original-Graph and disrupt the relationships among nodes to generate corresponding Shuffled-Graph. We introduce the Node Feature Global Integration (NFGI) module to represent the global features of the graph. Furthermore, we design a joint loss comprising adversarial loss and hybrid attention loss to ensure that the real graph embedding aligns closely with the Original-Graph and diverges from the Shuffled-Graph. Comprehensive experiments on five classical OTU gut microbiome datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and stability of our method. (We will release our code soon.)

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

Vehicle-to-everything technologies (V2X) have become an ideal paradigm to extend the perception range and see through the occlusion. Exiting efforts focus on single-frame cooperative perception, however, how to capture the temporal cue between frames with V2X to facilitate the prediction task even the planning task is still underexplored. In this paper, we introduce the Co-MTP, a general cooperative trajectory prediction framework with multi-temporal fusion for autonomous driving, which leverages the V2X system to fully capture the interaction among agents in both history and future domains to benefit the planning. In the history domain, V2X can complement the incomplete history trajectory in single-vehicle perception, and we design a heterogeneous graph transformer to learn the fusion of the history feature from multiple agents and capture the history interaction. Moreover, the goal of prediction is to support future planning. Thus, in the future domain, V2X can provide the prediction results of surrounding objects, and we further extend the graph transformer to capture the future interaction among the ego planning and the other vehicles' intentions and obtain the final future scenario state under a certain planning action. We evaluate the Co-MTP framework on the real-world dataset V2X-Seq, and the results show that Co-MTP achieves state-of-the-art performance and that both history and future fusion can greatly benefit prediction.

Multi-modality fusion and multi-task learning are becoming trendy in 3D autonomous driving scenario, considering robust prediction and computation budget. However, naively extending the existing framework to the domain of multi-modality multi-task learning remains ineffective and even poisonous due to the notorious modality bias and task conflict. Previous works manually coordinate the learning framework with empirical knowledge, which may lead to sub-optima. To mitigate the issue, we propose a novel yet simple multi-level gradient calibration learning framework across tasks and modalities during optimization. Specifically, the gradients, produced by the task heads and used to update the shared backbone, will be calibrated at the backbone's last layer to alleviate the task conflict. Before the calibrated gradients are further propagated to the modality branches of the backbone, their magnitudes will be calibrated again to the same level, ensuring the downstream tasks pay balanced attention to different modalities. Experiments on large-scale benchmark nuScenes demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, eg, an absolute 14.4% mIoU improvement on map segmentation and 1.4% mAP improvement on 3D detection, advancing the application of 3D autonomous driving in the domain of multi-modality fusion and multi-task learning. We also discuss the links between modalities and tasks.

Human pose forecasting garners attention for its diverse applications. However, challenges in modeling the multi-modal nature of human motion and intricate interactions among agents persist, particularly with longer timescales and more agents. In this paper, we propose an interaction-aware trajectory-conditioned long-term multi-agent human pose forecasting model, utilizing a coarse-to-fine prediction approach: multi-modal global trajectories are initially forecasted, followed by respective local pose forecasts conditioned on each mode. In doing so, our Trajectory2Pose model introduces a graph-based agent-wise interaction module for a reciprocal forecast of local motion-conditioned global trajectory and trajectory-conditioned local pose. Our model effectively handles the multi-modality of human motion and the complexity of long-term multi-agent interactions, improving performance in complex environments. Furthermore, we address the lack of long-term (6s+) multi-agent (5+) datasets by constructing a new dataset from real-world images and 2D annotations, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of our proposed model. State-of-the-art prediction performance on both complex and simpler datasets confirms the generalized effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/Jaewoo97/T2P.

Multi-sensor ML models for EO aim to enhance prediction accuracy by integrating data from various sources. However, the presence of missing data poses a significant challenge, particularly in non-persistent sensors that can be affected by external factors. Existing literature has explored strategies like temporal dropout and sensor-invariant models to address the generalization to missing data issues. Inspired by these works, we study two novel methods tailored for multi-sensor scenarios, namely Input Sensor Dropout (ISensD) and Ensemble Sensor Invariant (ESensI). Through experimentation on three multi-sensor temporal EO datasets, we demonstrate that these methods effectively increase the robustness of model predictions to missing sensors. Particularly, we focus on how the predictive performance of models drops when sensors are missing at different levels. We observe that ensemble multi-sensor models are the most robust to the lack of sensors. In addition, the sensor dropout component in ISensD shows promising robustness results.

In robotic visuomotor policy learning, diffusion-based models have achieved significant success in improving the accuracy of action trajectory generation compared to traditional autoregressive models. However, they suffer from inefficiency due to multiple denoising steps and limited flexibility from complex constraints. In this paper, we introduce Coarse-to-Fine AutoRegressive Policy (CARP), a novel paradigm for visuomotor policy learning that redefines the autoregressive action generation process as a coarse-to-fine, next-scale approach. CARP decouples action generation into two stages: first, an action autoencoder learns multi-scale representations of the entire action sequence; then, a GPT-style transformer refines the sequence prediction through a coarse-to-fine autoregressive process. This straightforward and intuitive approach produces highly accurate and smooth actions, matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion-based policies while maintaining efficiency on par with autoregressive policies. We conduct extensive evaluations across diverse settings, including single-task and multi-task scenarios on state-based and image-based simulation benchmarks, as well as real-world tasks. CARP achieves competitive success rates, with up to a 10% improvement, and delivers 10x faster inference compared to state-of-the-art policies, establishing a high-performance, efficient, and flexible paradigm for action generation in robotic tasks.

This article presents our results for the sixth Affective Behavior Analysis in-the-wild (ABAW) competition. To improve the trustworthiness of facial analysis, we study the possibility of using pre-trained deep models that extract reliable emotional features without the need to fine-tune the neural networks for a downstream task. In particular, we introduce several lightweight models based on MobileViT, MobileFaceNet, EfficientNet, and DDAMFN architectures trained in multi-task scenarios to recognize facial expressions, valence, and arousal on static photos. These neural networks extract frame-level features fed into a simple classifier, e.g., linear feed-forward neural network, to predict emotion intensity, compound expressions, action units, facial expressions, and valence/arousal. Experimental results for five tasks from the sixth ABAW challenge demonstrate that our approach lets us significantly improve quality metrics on validation sets compared to existing non-ensemble techniques.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Given a video with aligned dialogue, people can often infer what is more likely to happen next. Making such predictions requires not only a deep understanding of the rich dynamics underlying the video and dialogue, but also a significant amount of commonsense knowledge. In this work, we explore whether AI models are able to learn to make such multimodal commonsense next-event predictions. To support research in this direction, we collect a new dataset, named Video-and-Language Event Prediction (VLEP), with 28,726 future event prediction examples (along with their rationales) from 10,234 diverse TV Show and YouTube Lifestyle Vlog video clips. In order to promote the collection of non-trivial challenging examples, we employ an adversarial human-and-model-in-the-loop data collection procedure. We also present a strong baseline incorporating information from video, dialogue, and commonsense knowledge. Experiments show that each type of information is useful for this challenging task, and that compared to the high human performance on VLEP, our model provides a good starting point but leaves large room for future work. Our dataset and code are available at: https://github.com/jayleicn/VideoLanguageFuturePred

Driven by vast and diverse textual data, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across numerous natural language processing (NLP) tasks. Yet, a critical question persists: does their generalization arise from mere memorization of training data or from deep semantic understanding? To investigate this, we propose a bi-perspective evaluation framework to assess LLMs' scenario cognition - the ability to link semantic scenario elements with their arguments in context. Specifically, we introduce a novel scenario-based dataset comprising diverse textual descriptions of fictional facts, annotated with scenario elements. LLMs are evaluated through their capacity to answer scenario-related questions (model output perspective) and via probing their internal representations for encoded scenario elements-argument associations (internal representation perspective). Our experiments reveal that current LLMs predominantly rely on superficial memorization, failing to achieve robust semantic scenario cognition, even in simple cases. These findings expose critical limitations in LLMs' semantic understanding and offer cognitive insights for advancing their capabilities.

Predicting the motion of multiple traffic participants has always been one of the most challenging tasks in autonomous driving. The recently proposed occupancy flow field prediction method has shown to be a more effective and scalable representation compared to general trajectory prediction methods. However, in complex multi-agent traffic scenarios, it remains difficult to model the interactions among various factors and the dependencies among prediction outputs at different time steps. In view of this, we propose a transformer-based hierarchical feature guided network (HGNET), which can efficiently extract features of agents and map information from visual and vectorized inputs, modeling multimodal interaction relationships. Second, we design the Feature-Guided Attention (FGAT) module to leverage the potential guiding effects between different prediction targets, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, to enhance the temporal consistency and causal relationships of the predictions, we propose a Time Series Memory framework to learn the conditional distribution models of the prediction outputs at future time steps from multivariate time series. The results demonstrate that our model exhibits competitive performance, which ranks 3rd in the 2024 Waymo Occupancy and Flow Prediction Challenge.

Recent research has demonstrated the potential of deep neural networks (DNNs) to accurately predict wildfire spread on a given day based upon high-dimensional explanatory data from a single preceding day, or from a time series of T preceding days. For the first time, we investigate a large number of existing data-driven wildfire modeling strategies under controlled conditions, revealing the best modeling strategies and resulting in models that achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) accuracy for both single-day and multi-day input scenarios, as evaluated on a large public benchmark for next-day wildfire spread, termed the WildfireSpreadTS (WSTS) benchmark. Consistent with prior work, we found that models using time-series input obtained the best overall accuracy, suggesting this is an important future area of research. Furthermore, we create a new benchmark, WSTS+, by incorporating four additional years of historical wildfire data into the WSTS benchmark. Our benchmark doubles the number of unique years of historical data, expands its geographic scope, and, to our knowledge, represents the largest public benchmark for time-series-based wildfire spread prediction.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

Existing dense retrieval models struggle with reasoning-intensive retrieval task as they fail to capture implicit relevance that requires reasoning beyond surface-level semantic information. To address these challenges, we propose Scenario-Profiled Indexing with Knowledge Expansion (SPIKE), a dense retrieval framework that explicitly indexes implicit relevance by decomposing documents into scenario-based retrieval units. SPIKE organizes documents into scenario, which encapsulates the reasoning process necessary to uncover implicit relationships between hypothetical information needs and document content. SPIKE constructs a scenario-augmented dataset using a powerful teacher large language model (LLM), then distills these reasoning capabilities into a smaller, efficient scenario generator. During inference, SPIKE incorporates scenario-level relevance alongside document-level relevance, enabling reasoning-aware retrieval. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SPIKE consistently enhances retrieval performance across various query types and dense retrievers. It also enhances the retrieval experience for users through scenario and offers valuable contextual information for LLMs in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG).

In this short report, we introduce joint multi-token prediction (JTP), a lightweight modification of standard next-token prediction designed to enrich hidden state representations by jointly predicting multiple future tokens. Unlike previous multi-token prediction approaches, JTP strategically employs teacher forcing of future-tokens through a carefully designed representation bottleneck, allowing the model to encode rich predictive information with minimal computational overhead during training. We show that the JTP approach achieves a short-horizon belief state representation, while popular alternatives for multi-token prediction fail to do so. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on the synthetic star graph navigation task from from Bachmann and Nagarajan [2024], highlighting a significant performance improvement over existing methods. This manuscript presents promising preliminary results intended to stimulate further research.

Multi-agent trajectory prediction at signalized intersections is crucial for developing efficient intelligent transportation systems and safe autonomous driving systems. Due to the complexity of intersection scenarios and the limitations of single-vehicle perception, the performance of vehicle-centric prediction methods has reached a plateau. In this paper, we introduce an Infrastructure-to-Everything (I2X) collaborative prediction scheme. In this scheme, roadside units (RSUs) independently forecast the future trajectories of all vehicles and transmit these predictions unidirectionally to subscribing vehicles. Building on this scheme, we propose I2XTraj, a dedicated infrastructure-based trajectory prediction model. I2XTraj leverages real-time traffic signal states, prior maneuver strategy knowledge, and multi-agent interactions to generate accurate, joint multi-modal trajectory prediction. First, a continuous signal-informed mechanism is proposed to adaptively process real-time traffic signals to guide trajectory proposal generation under varied intersection configurations. Second, a driving strategy awareness mechanism estimates the joint distribution of maneuver strategies by integrating spatial priors of intersection areas with dynamic vehicle states, enabling coverage of the full set of feasible maneuvers. Third, a spatial-temporal-mode attention network models multi-agent interactions to refine and adjust joint trajectory outputs.Finally, I2XTraj is evaluated on two real-world datasets of signalized intersections, the V2X-Seq and the SinD drone dataset. In both single-infrastructure and online collaborative scenarios, our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods by over 30\% on V2X-Seq and 15\% on SinD, demonstrating strong generalizability and robustness.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

Learning to predict agent motions with relationship reasoning is important for many applications. In motion prediction tasks, maintaining motion equivariance under Euclidean geometric transformations and invariance of agent interaction is a critical and fundamental principle. However, such equivariance and invariance properties are overlooked by most existing methods. To fill this gap, we propose EqMotion, an efficient equivariant motion prediction model with invariant interaction reasoning. To achieve motion equivariance, we propose an equivariant geometric feature learning module to learn a Euclidean transformable feature through dedicated designs of equivariant operations. To reason agent's interactions, we propose an invariant interaction reasoning module to achieve a more stable interaction modeling. To further promote more comprehensive motion features, we propose an invariant pattern feature learning module to learn an invariant pattern feature, which cooperates with the equivariant geometric feature to enhance network expressiveness. We conduct experiments for the proposed model on four distinct scenarios: particle dynamics, molecule dynamics, human skeleton motion prediction and pedestrian trajectory prediction. Experimental results show that our method is not only generally applicable, but also achieves state-of-the-art prediction performances on all the four tasks, improving by 24.0/30.1/8.6/9.2%. Code is available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/EqMotion.

In-Context Operator Networks (ICONs) have demonstrated the ability to learn operators across diverse partial differential equations using few-shot, in-context learning. However, existing ICONs process each spatial point as an individual token, severely limiting computational efficiency when handling dense data in higher spatial dimensions. We propose Vision In-Context Operator Networks (VICON), which integrates vision transformer architectures to efficiently process 2D data through patch-wise operations while preserving ICON's adaptability to multiphysics systems and varying timesteps. Evaluated across three fluid dynamics benchmarks, VICON significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines: DPOT and MPP, reducing the averaged last-step rollout error by 37.9% compared to DPOT and 44.7% compared to MPP, while requiring only 72.5% and 34.8% of their respective inference times. VICON naturally supports flexible rollout strategies with varying timestep strides, enabling immediate deployment in imperfect measurement systems where sampling frequencies may differ or frames might be dropped - common challenges in real-world settings - without requiring retraining or interpolation. In these realistic scenarios, VICON exhibits remarkable robustness, experiencing only 24.41% relative performance degradation compared to 71.37%-74.49% degradation in baseline methods, demonstrating its versatility for deploying in realistic applications. Our scripts for processing datasets and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Eydcao/VICON.

We propose a hierarchical architecture designed for scalable real-time Model Predictive Control (MPC) in complex, multi-modal traffic scenarios. This architecture comprises two key components: 1) RAID-Net, a novel attention-based Recurrent Neural Network that predicts relevant interactions along the MPC prediction horizon between the autonomous vehicle and the surrounding vehicles using Lagrangian duality, and 2) a reduced Stochastic MPC problem that eliminates irrelevant collision avoidance constraints, enhancing computational efficiency. Our approach is demonstrated in a simulated traffic intersection with interactive surrounding vehicles, showcasing a 12x speed-up in solving the motion planning problem. A video demonstrating the proposed architecture in multiple complex traffic scenarios can be found here: https://youtu.be/-pRiOnPb9_c. GitHub: https://github.com/MPC-Berkeley/hmpc_raidnet

A multi-modal guardrail must effectively filter image content based on user-defined policies, identifying material that may be hateful, reinforce harmful stereotypes, contain explicit material, or spread misinformation. Deploying such guardrails in real-world applications, however, poses significant challenges. Users often require varied and highly customizable policies and typically cannot provide abundant examples for each custom policy. Consequently, an ideal guardrail should be scalable to the multiple policies and adaptable to evolving user standards with minimal retraining. Existing fine-tuning methods typically condition predictions on pre-defined policies, restricting their generalizability to new policies or necessitating extensive retraining to adapt. Conversely, training-free methods struggle with limited context lengths, making it difficult to incorporate all the policies comprehensively. To overcome these limitations, we propose to condition model's judgment on "precedents", which are the reasoning processes of prior data points similar to the given input. By leveraging precedents instead of fixed policies, our approach greatly enhances the flexibility and adaptability of the guardrail. In this paper, we introduce a critique-revise mechanism for collecting high-quality precedents and two strategies that utilize precedents for robust prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms previous methods across both few-shot and full-dataset scenarios and exhibits superior generalization to novel policies.

The upper 6 GHz (U6G) band with XL-MIMO is a key enabler for sixth-generation wireless systems, yet intelligent radiomap prediction for such systems remains challenging. Existing datasets support only small-scale arrays (up to 8x8) with predominantly isotropic antennas, far from the 1024-element directional arrays envisioned for 6G. Moreover, current methods encode array configurations as scalar parameters, forcing neural networks to extrapolate array-specific radiation patterns, which fails when predicting radiomaps for configurations absent from training data. To jointly address data scarcity and generalization limitations, this paper advances XL-MIMO radiomap prediction from three aspects. To overcome data limitations, we construct the first XL-MIMO radiomap dataset containing 78400 radiomaps across 800 urban scenes, five frequency bands (1.8-6.7 GHz), and nine array configurations up to 32x32 uniform planar arrays with directional elements. To enable systematic evaluation, we establish a comprehensive benchmark framework covering practical scenarios from coverage estimation without field measurements to generalization across unseen configurations and environments. To enable generalization to arbitrary beam configurations without retraining, we propose the beam map, a physics-informed spatial feature that analytically computes array-specific coverage patterns. By decoupling deterministic array radiation from data learned multipath propagation, beam maps shift generalization from neural network extrapolation to physics-based computation. Integrating beam maps into existing architectures reduces mean absolute error by up to 60.0% when generalizing to unseen configurations and up to 50.5% when transferring to unseen environments. The complete dataset and code are publicly available at https://lxj321.github.io/MulticonfigRadiomapDataset/.

Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA) is a highly prevalent chronic musculoskeletal condition with no currently available treatment. The manifestation of KOA is heterogeneous and prediction of its progression is challenging. Current literature suggests that the use of multi-modal data and advanced modeling methods, such as the ones based on Deep Learning, has promise in tackling this challenge. To date, however, the evidence on the efficacy of this approach is limited. In this study, we leveraged recent advances in Deep Learning and, using a Transformer approach, developed a unified framework for the multi-modal fusion of knee imaging data. Subsequently, we analyzed its performance across a range of scenarios by investigating multiple progression horizons -- from short-term to long-term. We report our findings using a large cohort (n=2421-3967) derived from the Osteoarthritis Initiative dataset. We show that structural knee MRI allows identifying radiographic KOA progressors on par with multi-modal fusion approaches, achieving an area under the ROC curve (ROC AUC) of 0.70-0.76 and Average Precision (AP) of 0.15-0.54 in 2-8 year horizons. Progression within 1 year was better predicted with a multi-modal method using X-ray, structural, and compositional MR images -- ROC AUC of 0.76(0.04), AP of 0.13(0.04) -- or via clinical data. Our follow-up analysis generally shows that prediction from the imaging data is more accurate for post-traumatic subjects, and we further investigate which subject subgroups may benefit the most. The present study provides novel insights into multi-modal imaging of KOA and brings a unified data-driven framework for studying its progression in an end-to-end manner, providing new tools for the design of more efficient clinical trials. The source code of our framework and the pre-trained models are made publicly available.

With the growing complexity and dynamics of the mobile communication networks, accurately predicting key system parameters, such as channel state information (CSI), user location, and network traffic, has become essential for a wide range of physical (PHY)-layer and medium access control (MAC)-layer tasks. Although traditional deep learning (DL)-based methods have been widely applied to such prediction tasks, they often struggle to generalize across different scenarios and tasks. In response, we propose a unified foundation model for multi-task prediction in wireless networks that supports diverse prediction intervals. The proposed model enforces univariate decomposition to unify heterogeneous tasks, encodes granularity for interval awareness, and uses a causal Transformer backbone for accurate predictions. Additionally, we introduce a patch masking strategy during training to support arbitrary input lengths. After trained on large-scale datasets, the proposed foundation model demonstrates strong generalization to unseen scenarios and achieves zero-shot performance on new tasks that surpass traditional full-shot baselines.

Dense prediction tasks hold significant importance of computer vision, aiming to learn pixel-wise annotated label for an input image. Despite advances in this field, existing methods primarily focus on idealized conditions, with limited generalization to real-world scenarios and facing the challenging scarcity of real-world data. To systematically study this problem, we first introduce DenseWorld, a benchmark spanning a broad set of 25 dense prediction tasks that correspond to urgent real-world applications, featuring unified evaluation across tasks. Then, we propose DenseDiT, which maximally exploits generative models' visual priors to perform diverse real-world dense prediction tasks through a unified strategy. DenseDiT combines a parameter-reuse mechanism and two lightweight branches that adaptively integrate multi-scale context, working with less than 0.1% additional parameters. Evaluations on DenseWorld reveal significant performance drops in existing general and specialized baselines, highlighting their limited real-world generalization. In contrast, DenseDiT achieves superior results using less than 0.01% training data of baselines, underscoring its practical value for real-world deployment. Our data, and checkpoints and codes are available at https://xcltql666.github.io/DenseDiTProj

Cardiac biosignals, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), are of paramount importance for the diagnosis, prevention, and management of cardiovascular diseases, and have been extensively used in a variety of clinical tasks. Conventional deep learning approaches for analyzing these signals typically rely on homogeneous datasets and static bespoke models, limiting their robustness and generalizability across diverse clinical settings and acquisition protocols. In this study, we present a cardiac sensing foundation model (CSFM) that leverages advanced transformer architectures and a generative, masked pretraining strategy to learn unified representations from vast, heterogeneous health records. Our model is pretrained on an innovative multi-modal integration of data from multiple large-scale datasets (including MIMIC-III-WDB, MIMIC-IV-ECG, and CODE), comprising cardiac signals and the corresponding clinical or machine-generated text reports from approximately 1.7 million individuals. We demonstrate that the embeddings derived from our CSFM not only serve as effective feature extractors across diverse cardiac sensing scenarios, but also enable seamless transfer learning across varying input configurations and sensor modalities. Extensive evaluations across diagnostic tasks, demographic information recognition, vital sign measurement, clinical outcome prediction, and ECG question answering reveal that CSFM consistently outperforms traditional one-modal-one-task approaches. Notably, CSFM exhibits robust performance across multiple ECG lead configurations from standard 12-lead systems to single-lead setups, and in scenarios where only ECG, only PPG, or a combination thereof is available. These findings highlight the potential of CSFM as a versatile and scalable solution, for comprehensive cardiac monitoring.

Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technologies offer a promising paradigm to mitigate the limitations of constrained observability in single-vehicle systems. Prior work primarily focuses on single-frame cooperative perception, which fuses agents' information across different spatial locations but ignores temporal cues and temporal tasks (e.g., temporal perception and prediction). In this paper, we focus on the spatio-temporal fusion in V2X scenarios and design one-step and multi-step communication strategies (when to transmit) as well as examine their integration with three fusion strategies - early, late, and intermediate (what to transmit), providing comprehensive benchmarks with 11 fusion models (how to fuse). Furthermore, we propose V2XPnP, a novel intermediate fusion framework within one-step communication for end-to-end perception and prediction. Our framework employs a unified Transformer-based architecture to effectively model complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple agents, frames, and high-definition map. Moreover, we introduce the V2XPnP Sequential Dataset that supports all V2X collaboration modes and addresses the limitations of existing real-world datasets, which are restricted to single-frame or single-mode cooperation. Extensive experiments demonstrate our framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both perception and prediction tasks. The codebase and dataset will be released to facilitate future V2X research.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

The rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) has substantially expanded the range of tasks they can address. In the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP), researchers have shifted their focus from conventional NLP tasks (e.g., sequence tagging and parsing) towards tasks that revolve around aligning with human needs (e.g., brainstorming and email writing). This shift in task distribution imposes new requirements on evaluating these aligned models regarding generality (i.e., assessing performance across diverse scenarios), flexibility (i.e., examining under different protocols), and interpretability (i.e., scrutinizing models with explanations). In this paper, we propose a generative judge with 13B parameters, Auto-J, designed to address these challenges. Our model is trained on user queries and LLM-generated responses under massive real-world scenarios and accommodates diverse evaluation protocols (e.g., pairwise response comparison and single-response evaluation) with well-structured natural language critiques. To demonstrate the efficacy of our approach, we construct a new testbed covering 58 different scenarios. Experimentally, Auto-J outperforms a series of strong competitors, including both open-source and closed-source models, by a large margin. We also provide detailed analysis and case studies to further reveal the potential of our method and make a variety of resources public at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/auto-j.

Managing long sequences has become an important and necessary feature for large language models (LLMs). However, it is still an open question of how to comprehensively and systematically evaluate the long-sequence capability of LLMs. One of the reasons is that conventional and widely-used benchmarks mainly consist of short sequences. In this paper, we propose M4LE, a Multi-ability, Multi-range, Multi-task, Multi-domain benchmark for Long-context Evaluation. M4LE is based on a diverse NLP task pool comprising 36 NLP datasets, 11 task types and 12 domains. To alleviate the scarcity of tasks with naturally long sequences and incorporate multiple-ability assessment, we propose an automatic approach (but with negligible human annotations) to convert short-sequence tasks into a unified long-sequence scenario where LLMs have to identify single or multiple relevant spans in long contexts based on explicit or semantic hints. Specifically, the scenario includes five different types of abilities: (1) explicit single-span; (2) semantic single-span; (3) explicit multiple-span; (4) semantic multiple-span; and (5) global context understanding. The resulting samples in M4LE are evenly distributed from 1k to 8k input length. We conducted a systematic evaluation on 11 well-established LLMs, especially those optimized for long-sequence inputs. Our results reveal that: 1) Current LLMs struggle to understand long context, particularly when tasks require multiple-span attention. 2) Semantic retrieval task is more difficult for competent LLMs. 3) Models fine-tuned on longer text with position interpolation have comparable performance to those using Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) aware scaling methods without fine-tuning. We make our benchmark publicly available to encourage future research in this challenging area.

Realistic simulation of dynamic scenes requires accurately capturing diverse material properties and modeling complex object interactions grounded in physical principles. However, existing methods are constrained to basic material types with limited predictable parameters, making them insufficient to represent the complexity of real-world materials. We introduce a novel approach that leverages multi-modal foundation models and video diffusion to achieve enhanced 4D dynamic scene simulation. Our method utilizes multi-modal models to identify material types and initialize material parameters through image queries, while simultaneously inferring 3D Gaussian splats for detailed scene representation. We further refine these material parameters using video diffusion with a differentiable Material Point Method (MPM) and optical flow guidance rather than render loss or Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) loss. This integrated framework enables accurate prediction and realistic simulation of dynamic interactions in real-world scenarios, advancing both accuracy and flexibility in physics-based simulations.

Whole-body loco-manipulation for quadruped robots with arms remains a challenging problem, particularly in achieving multi-task control. To address this, we propose MLM, a reinforcement learning framework driven by both real-world and simulation data. It enables a six-DoF robotic arm-equipped quadruped robot to perform whole-body loco-manipulation for multiple tasks autonomously or under human teleoperation. To address the problem of balancing multiple tasks during the learning of loco-manipulation, we introduce a trajectory library with an adaptive, curriculum-based sampling mechanism. This approach allows the policy to efficiently leverage real-world collected trajectories for learning multi-task loco-manipulation. To address deployment scenarios with only historical observations and to enhance the performance of policy execution across tasks with different spatial ranges, we propose a Trajectory-Velocity Prediction policy network. It predicts unobservable future trajectories and velocities. By leveraging extensive simulation data and curriculum-based rewards, our controller achieves whole-body behaviors in simulation and zero-shot transfer to real-world deployment. Ablation studies in simulation verify the necessity and effectiveness of our approach, while real-world experiments on a Go2 robot with an Airbot robotic arm demonstrate the policy's good performance in multi-task execution.

In this paper, we present StrucTexTv2, an effective document image pre-training framework, by performing masked visual-textual prediction. It consists of two self-supervised pre-training tasks: masked image modeling and masked language modeling, based on text region-level image masking. The proposed method randomly masks some image regions according to the bounding box coordinates of text words. The objectives of our pre-training tasks are reconstructing the pixels of masked image regions and the corresponding masked tokens simultaneously. Hence the pre-trained encoder can capture more textual semantics in comparison to the masked image modeling that usually predicts the masked image patches. Compared to the masked multi-modal modeling methods for document image understanding that rely on both the image and text modalities, StrucTexTv2 models image-only input and potentially deals with more application scenarios free from OCR pre-processing. Extensive experiments on mainstream benchmarks of document image understanding demonstrate the effectiveness of StrucTexTv2. It achieves competitive or even new state-of-the-art performance in various downstream tasks such as image classification, layout analysis, table structure recognition, document OCR, and information extraction under the end-to-end scenario.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has stimulated interest in multi-agent collaboration for addressing complex medical tasks. However, the practical advantages of multi-agent collaboration approaches remain insufficiently understood. Existing evaluations often lack generalizability, failing to cover diverse tasks reflective of real-world clinical practice, and frequently omit rigorous comparisons against both single-LLM-based and established conventional methods. To address this critical gap, we introduce MedAgentBoard, a comprehensive benchmark for the systematic evaluation of multi-agent collaboration, single-LLM, and conventional approaches. MedAgentBoard encompasses four diverse medical task categories: (1) medical (visual) question answering, (2) lay summary generation, (3) structured Electronic Health Record (EHR) predictive modeling, and (4) clinical workflow automation, across text, medical images, and structured EHR data. Our extensive experiments reveal a nuanced landscape: while multi-agent collaboration demonstrates benefits in specific scenarios, such as enhancing task completeness in clinical workflow automation, it does not consistently outperform advanced single LLMs (e.g., in textual medical QA) or, critically, specialized conventional methods that generally maintain better performance in tasks like medical VQA and EHR-based prediction. MedAgentBoard offers a vital resource and actionable insights, emphasizing the necessity of a task-specific, evidence-based approach to selecting and developing AI solutions in medicine. It underscores that the inherent complexity and overhead of multi-agent collaboration must be carefully weighed against tangible performance gains. All code, datasets, detailed prompts, and experimental results are open-sourced at https://medagentboard.netlify.app/.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

Large Language Models (LLMs) hold immense potential for revolutionizing Customer Experience Management (CXM), particularly in contact center operations. However, evaluating their practical utility in complex operational environments is hindered by data scarcity (due to privacy concerns) and the limitations of current benchmarks. Existing benchmarks often lack realism, failing to incorporate deep knowledge base (KB) integration, real-world noise, or critical operational tasks beyond conversational fluency. To bridge this gap, we introduce CXMArena, a novel, large-scale synthetic benchmark dataset specifically designed for evaluating AI in operational CXM contexts. Given the diversity in possible contact center features, we have developed a scalable LLM-powered pipeline that simulates the brand's CXM entities that form the foundation of our datasets-such as knowledge articles including product specifications, issue taxonomies, and contact center conversations. The entities closely represent real-world distribution because of controlled noise injection (informed by domain experts) and rigorous automated validation. Building on this, we release CXMArena, which provides dedicated benchmarks targeting five important operational tasks: Knowledge Base Refinement, Intent Prediction, Agent Quality Adherence, Article Search, and Multi-turn RAG with Integrated Tools. Our baseline experiments underscore the benchmark's difficulty: even state of the art embedding and generation models achieve only 68% accuracy on article search, while standard embedding methods yield a low F1 score of 0.3 for knowledge base refinement, highlighting significant challenges for current models necessitating complex pipelines and solutions over conventional techniques.

Thinking about the future is one of the important activities that people do in daily life. Futurists also pay a lot of effort into figuring out possible scenarios for the future. We argue that the exploration of this direction is still in an early stage in the NLP research. To this end, we propose three argument generation tasks in the financial application scenario. Our experimental results show these tasks are still big challenges for representative generation models. Based on our empirical results, we further point out several unresolved issues and challenges in this research direction.

We propose LoRA-MCL, a training scheme that extends next-token prediction in language models with a method designed to decode diverse, plausible sentence continuations at inference time. Traditional language modeling is an intrinsically ill-posed problem: given a context, multiple futures may be equally plausible. Our approach leverages Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) and the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to efficiently handle ambiguity through Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). We provide a theoretical interpretation of applying Multiple Choice Learning to Language Modeling, assuming the data is generated from a mixture of distributions. To illustrate the proposed approach, we use data sampled from mixtures of Markov chains. We then demonstrate with extensive experiments on real-world visual and audio captioning tasks that our method achieves high diversity and relevance in generated outputs.

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) collect and pseudo-label terabytes of multi-modal data localized to HD maps during normal fleet testing. However, identifying interesting and safety-critical scenarios from uncurated driving logs remains a significant challenge. Traditional scenario mining techniques are error-prone and prohibitively time-consuming, often relying on hand-crafted structured queries. In this work, we revisit spatio-temporal scenario mining through the lens of recent vision-language models (VLMs) to detect whether a described scenario occurs in a driving log and, if so, precisely localize it in both time and space. To address this problem, we introduce RefAV, a large-scale dataset of 10,000 diverse natural language queries that describe complex multi-agent interactions relevant to motion planning derived from 1000 driving logs in the Argoverse 2 Sensor dataset. We evaluate several referential multi-object trackers and present an empirical analysis of our baselines. Notably, we find that naively repurposing off-the-shelf VLMs yields poor performance, suggesting that scenario mining presents unique challenges. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/CainanD/RefAV/ and https://argoverse.github.io/user-guide/tasks/scenario_mining.html

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

Autonomous driving requires rich contextual comprehension and precise predictive reasoning to navigate dynamic and complex environments safely. Vision-Language Models (VLMs) and Driving World Models (DWMs) have independently emerged as powerful recipes addressing different aspects of this challenge. VLMs provide interpretability and robust action prediction through their ability to understand multi-modal context, while DWMs excel in generating detailed and plausible future driving scenarios essential for proactive planning. Integrating VLMs with DWMs is an intuitive, promising, yet understudied strategy to exploit the complementary strengths of accurate behavioral prediction and realistic scene generation. Nevertheless, this integration presents notable challenges, particularly in effectively connecting action-level decisions with high-fidelity pixel-level predictions and maintaining computational efficiency. In this paper, we propose ImagiDrive, a novel end-to-end autonomous driving framework that integrates a VLM-based driving agent with a DWM-based scene imaginer to form a unified imagination-and-planning loop. The driving agent predicts initial driving trajectories based on multi-modal inputs, guiding the scene imaginer to generate corresponding future scenarios. These imagined scenarios are subsequently utilized to iteratively refine the driving agent's planning decisions. To address efficiency and predictive accuracy challenges inherent in this integration, we introduce an early stopping mechanism and a trajectory selection strategy. Extensive experimental validation on the nuScenes and NAVSIM datasets demonstrates the robustness and superiority of ImagiDrive over previous alternatives under both open-loop and closed-loop conditions.

Scenario-based question answering (SQA) requires retrieving and reading paragraphs from a large corpus to answer a question which is contextualized by a long scenario description. Since a scenario contains both keyphrases for retrieval and much noise, retrieval for SQA is extremely difficult. Moreover, it can hardly be supervised due to the lack of relevance labels of paragraphs for SQA. To meet the challenge, in this paper we propose a joint retriever-reader model called JEEVES where the retriever is implicitly supervised only using QA labels via a novel word weighting mechanism. JEEVES significantly outperforms a variety of strong baselines on multiple-choice questions in three SQA datasets.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

Driving scene manipulation with sensor data is emerging as a promising alternative to traditional virtual driving simulators. However, existing frameworks struggle to generate realistic scenarios efficiently due to limited editing capabilities. To address these challenges, we present SIMSplat, a predictive driving scene editor with language-aligned Gaussian splatting. As a language-controlled editor, SIMSplat enables intuitive manipulation using natural language prompts. By aligning language with Gaussian-reconstructed scenes, it further supports direct querying of road objects, allowing precise and flexible editing. Our method provides detailed object-level editing, including adding new objects and modifying the trajectories of both vehicles and pedestrians, while also incorporating predictive path refinement through multi-agent motion prediction to generate realistic interactions among all agents in the scene. Experiments on the Waymo dataset demonstrate SIMSplat's extensive editing capabilities and adaptability across a wide range of scenarios. Project page: https://sungyeonparkk.github.io/simsplat/

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated significant advances in visual understanding tasks involving both images and videos. However, their capacity to comprehend human-centric video data remains underexplored, primarily due to the absence of comprehensive and high-quality evaluation benchmarks. Existing human-centric benchmarks predominantly emphasize video generation quality and action recognition, while overlooking essential perceptual and cognitive abilities required in human-centered scenarios. Furthermore, they are often limited by single-question paradigms and overly simplistic evaluation metrics. To address above limitations, we propose a modern HV-MMBench, a rigorously curated benchmark designed to provide a more holistic evaluation of MLLMs in human-centric video understanding. Compared to existing human-centric video benchmarks, our work offers the following key features: (1) Diverse evaluation dimensions: HV-MMBench encompasses 13 tasks, ranging from basic attribute perception (e.g., age estimation, emotion recognition) to advanced cognitive reasoning (e.g., social relationship prediction, intention prediction), enabling comprehensive assessment of model capabilities; (2) Varied data types: The benchmark includes multiple-choice, fill-in-blank, true/false, and open-ended question formats, combined with diverse evaluation metrics, to more accurately and robustly reflect model performance; (3) Multi-domain video coverage: The benchmark spans 50 distinct visual scenarios, enabling comprehensive evaluation across fine-grained scene variations; (4) Temporal coverage: The benchmark covers videos from short-term (10 seconds) to long-term (up to 30min) durations, supporting systematic analysis of models temporal reasoning abilities across diverse contextual lengths.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has achieved astonishing successes in many domains, especially with the recent breakthroughs in the development of foundational large models. These large models, leveraging their extensive training data, provide versatile solutions for a wide range of downstream tasks. However, as modern datasets become increasingly diverse and complex, the development of large AI models faces two major challenges: (1) the enormous consumption of computational resources and deployment difficulties, and (2) the difficulty in fitting heterogeneous and complex data, which limits the usability of the models. Mixture of Experts (MoE) models has recently attracted much attention in addressing these challenges, by dynamically selecting and activating the most relevant sub-models to process input data. It has been shown that MoEs can significantly improve model performance and efficiency with fewer resources, particularly excelling in handling large-scale, multimodal data. Given the tremendous potential MoE has demonstrated across various domains, it is urgent to provide a comprehensive summary of recent advancements of MoEs in many important fields. Existing surveys on MoE have their limitations, e.g., being outdated or lacking discussion on certain key areas, and we aim to address these gaps. In this paper, we first introduce the basic design of MoE, including gating functions, expert networks, routing mechanisms, training strategies, and system design. We then explore the algorithm design of MoE in important machine learning paradigms such as continual learning, meta-learning, multi-task learning, and reinforcement learning. Additionally, we summarize theoretical studies aimed at understanding MoE and review its applications in computer vision and natural language processing. Finally, we discuss promising future research directions.

As a step toward better document-level understanding, we explore classification of a sequence of sentences into their corresponding categories, a task that requires understanding sentences in context of the document. Recent successful models for this task have used hierarchical models to contextualize sentence representations, and Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) to incorporate dependencies between subsequent labels. In this work, we show that pretrained language models, BERT (Devlin et al., 2018) in particular, can be used for this task to capture contextual dependencies without the need for hierarchical encoding nor a CRF. Specifically, we construct a joint sentence representation that allows BERT Transformer layers to directly utilize contextual information from all words in all sentences. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on four datasets, including a new dataset of structured scientific abstracts.

Human dialogues are scenario-based and appropriate responses generally relate to the latent context knowledge entailed by the specific scenario. To enable responses that are more meaningful and context-specific, we propose to improve generative dialogue systems from the scenario perspective, where both dialogue history and future conversation are taken into account to implicitly reconstruct the scenario knowledge. More importantly, the conversation scenarios are further internalized using imitation learning framework, where the conventional dialogue model that has no access to future conversations is effectively regularized by transferring the scenario knowledge contained in hierarchical supervising signals from the scenario-based dialogue model, so that the future conversation is not required in actual inference. Extensive evaluations show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on diversity and relevance, and expresses scenario-specific knowledge.

Language models (LMs) are becoming the foundation for almost all major language technologies, but their capabilities, limitations, and risks are not well understood. We present Holistic Evaluation of Language Models (HELM) to improve the transparency of language models. First, we taxonomize the vast space of potential scenarios (i.e. use cases) and metrics (i.e. desiderata) that are of interest for LMs. Then we select a broad subset based on coverage and feasibility, noting what's missing or underrepresented (e.g. question answering for neglected English dialects, metrics for trustworthiness). Second, we adopt a multi-metric approach: We measure 7 metrics (accuracy, calibration, robustness, fairness, bias, toxicity, and efficiency) for each of 16 core scenarios when possible (87.5% of the time). This ensures metrics beyond accuracy don't fall to the wayside, and that trade-offs are clearly exposed. We also perform 7 targeted evaluations, based on 26 targeted scenarios, to analyze specific aspects (e.g. reasoning, disinformation). Third, we conduct a large-scale evaluation of 30 prominent language models (spanning open, limited-access, and closed models) on all 42 scenarios, 21 of which were not previously used in mainstream LM evaluation. Prior to HELM, models on average were evaluated on just 17.9% of the core HELM scenarios, with some prominent models not sharing a single scenario in common. We improve this to 96.0%: now all 30 models have been densely benchmarked on the same core scenarios and metrics under standardized conditions. Our evaluation surfaces 25 top-level findings. For full transparency, we release all raw model prompts and completions publicly for further analysis, as well as a general modular toolkit. We intend for HELM to be a living benchmark for the community, continuously updated with new scenarios, metrics, and models.

Retrieving relevant contexts from a large corpus is a crucial step for tasks such as open-domain question answering and fact checking. Although neural retrieval outperforms traditional methods like tf-idf and BM25, its performance degrades considerably when applied to out-of-domain data. Driven by the question of whether a neural retrieval model can be universal and perform robustly on a wide variety of problems, we propose a multi-task trained model. Our approach not only outperforms previous methods in the few-shot setting, but also rivals specialised neural retrievers, even when in-domain training data is abundant. With the help of our retriever, we improve existing models for downstream tasks and closely match or improve the state of the art on multiple benchmarks.

Many existing evaluation benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) quickly become outdated due to the emergence of new models and training data. These benchmarks also fall short in assessing how LLM performance changes over time, as they consist of static questions without a temporal dimension. To address these limitations, we propose using future event prediction as a continuous evaluation method to assess LLMs' temporal generalization and forecasting abilities. Our benchmark, Daily Oracle, automatically generates question-answer (QA) pairs from daily news, challenging LLMs to predict "future" event outcomes. Our findings reveal that as pre-training data becomes outdated, LLM performance degrades over time. While Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) has the potential to enhance prediction accuracy, the performance degradation pattern persists, highlighting the need for continuous model updates.

Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of discrete events in continuous time, by constructing a neurally self-modulating multivariate point process in which the intensities of multiple event types evolve according to a novel continuous-time LSTM. This generative model allows past events to influence the future in complex and realistic ways, by conditioning future event intensities on the hidden state of a recurrent neural network that has consumed the stream of past events. Our model has desirable qualitative properties. It achieves competitive likelihood and predictive accuracy on real and synthetic datasets, including under missing-data conditions.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

We present an outcome-driven fine-tuning framework that enhances the forecasting capabilities of large language models (LLMs) without relying on human-curated reasoning samples. Our method leverages model self-play to generate pairs of diverse reasoning trajectories and probabilistic forecasts for a set of diverse questions that resolve after the models' knowledge cutoff date. We then rank pairs of these reasoning traces by their distance to the actual outcomes before fine-tuning the model via Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). On a separate test set, our approach increases prediction accuracy of Phi-4 14B and DeepSeek-R1 14B by between 7--10\% over a base model and a DPO fine-tuned control model with randomized labels, bringing them on par with forecasting capabilities of much larger frontier models like GPT-4o.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Users engage with financial services companies through multiple channels, often interacting with mobile applications, web platforms, call centers, and physical locations to service their accounts. The resulting interactions are recorded at heterogeneous temporal resolutions across these domains. This multi-channel data can be combined and encoded to create a comprehensive representation of the customer's journey for accurate intent prediction. This demands sequential learning solutions. NMT transformers achieve state-of-the-art sequential representation learning by encoding context and decoding for the next best action to represent long-range dependencies. However, three major challenges exist while combining multi-domain sequences within an encoder-decoder transformers architecture for intent prediction applications: a) aligning sequences with different sampling rates b) learning temporal dynamics across multi-variate, multi-domain sequences c) combining dynamic and static sequences. We propose an encoder-decoder transformer model to address these challenges for contextual and sequential intent prediction in financial servicing applications. Our experiments show significant improvement over the existing tabular method.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting performance varies with different model families on real-world questions about events that happened beyond the model cutoff date. We analyze how context, question type, and external knowledge affect accuracy and calibration, and how adding factual news context modifies belief formation and failure modes. Our results show that forecasting ability is highly variable as it depends on what, and how, we ask.

Multimodal counterfactual reasoning is a vital yet challenging ability for AI systems. It involves predicting the outcomes of hypothetical circumstances based on vision and language inputs, which enables AI models to learn from failures and explore hypothetical scenarios. Despite its importance, there are only a few datasets targeting the counterfactual reasoning abilities of multimodal models. Among them, they only cover reasoning over synthetic environments or specific types of events (e.g. traffic collisions), making them hard to reliably benchmark the model generalization ability in diverse real-world scenarios and reasoning dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we develop a video question answering dataset, ACQUIRED: it consists of 3.9K annotated videos, encompassing a wide range of event types and incorporating both first and third-person viewpoints, which ensures a focus on real-world diversity. In addition, each video is annotated with questions that span three distinct dimensions of reasoning, including physical, social, and temporal, which can comprehensively evaluate the model counterfactual abilities along multiple aspects. We benchmark our dataset against several state-of-the-art language-only and multimodal models and experimental results demonstrate a significant performance gap (>13%) between models and humans. The findings suggest that multimodal counterfactual reasoning remains an open challenge and ACQUIRED is a comprehensive and reliable benchmark for inspiring future research in this direction.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

In this paper, we introduce MultiConIR, the first benchmark designed to evaluate retrieval models in multi-condition scenarios. Unlike existing datasets that primarily focus on single-condition queries from search engines, MultiConIR captures real-world complexity by incorporating five diverse domains: books, movies, people, medical cases, and legal documents. We propose three tasks to systematically assess retrieval and reranking models on multi-condition robustness, monotonic relevance ranking, and query format sensitivity. Our findings reveal that existing retrieval and reranking models struggle with multi-condition retrieval, with rerankers suffering severe performance degradation as query complexity increases. We further investigate the performance gap between retrieval and reranking models, exploring potential reasons for these discrepancies, and analysis the impact of different pooling strategies on condition placement sensitivity. Finally, we highlight the strengths of GritLM and Nv-Embed, which demonstrate enhanced adaptability to multi-condition queries, offering insights for future retrieval models. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/MultiConIR.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

This paper presents a multilingual study of word meaning representations in context. We assess the ability of both static and contextualized models to adequately represent different lexical-semantic relations, such as homonymy and synonymy. To do so, we created a new multilingual dataset that allows us to perform a controlled evaluation of several factors such as the impact of the surrounding context or the overlap between words, conveying the same or different senses. A systematic assessment on four scenarios shows that the best monolingual models based on Transformers can adequately disambiguate homonyms in context. However, as they rely heavily on context, these models fail at representing words with different senses when occurring in similar sentences. Experiments are performed in Galician, Portuguese, English, and Spanish, and both the dataset (with more than 3,000 evaluation items) and new models are freely released with this study.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

Lexical semantics is concerned with both the multiple senses a word can adopt in different contexts, and the semantic relations that exist between meanings of different words. To investigate them, Contextualized Language Models are a valuable tool that provides context-sensitive representations that can be used to investigate lexical meaning. Recent works like XL-LEXEME have leveraged the task of Word-in-Context to fine-tune them to get more semantically accurate representations, but Word-in-Context only compares occurrences of the same lemma, limiting the range of captured information. In this paper, we propose an extension, Concept Differentiation, to include inter-words scenarios. We provide a dataset for this task, derived from SemCor data. Then we fine-tune several representation models on this dataset. We call these models Concept-Aligned Embeddings (CALE). By challenging our models and other models on various lexical semantic tasks, we demonstrate that the proposed models provide efficient multi-purpose representations of lexical meaning that reach best performances in our experiments. We also show that CALE's fine-tuning brings valuable changes to the spatial organization of embeddings.

A long-term goal of machine learning is to build intelligent conversational agents. One recent popular approach is to train end-to-end models on a large amount of real dialog transcripts between humans (Sordoni et al., 2015; Vinyals & Le, 2015; Shang et al., 2015). However, this approach leaves many questions unanswered as an understanding of the precise successes and shortcomings of each model is hard to assess. A contrasting recent proposal are the bAbI tasks (Weston et al., 2015b) which are synthetic data that measure the ability of learning machines at various reasoning tasks over toy language. Unfortunately, those tests are very small and hence may encourage methods that do not scale. In this work, we propose a suite of new tasks of a much larger scale that attempt to bridge the gap between the two regimes. Choosing the domain of movies, we provide tasks that test the ability of models to answer factual questions (utilizing OMDB), provide personalization (utilizing MovieLens), carry short conversations about the two, and finally to perform on natural dialogs from Reddit. We provide a dataset covering 75k movie entities and with 3.5M training examples. We present results of various models on these tasks, and evaluate their performance.

Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Corss-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corrsponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong Cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench and ProbTS, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.

Recently, the emergence of pre-trained models (PTMs) has brought natural language processing (NLP) to a new era. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of PTMs for NLP. We first briefly introduce language representation learning and its research progress. Then we systematically categorize existing PTMs based on a taxonomy with four perspectives. Next, we describe how to adapt the knowledge of PTMs to the downstream tasks. Finally, we outline some potential directions of PTMs for future research. This survey is purposed to be a hands-on guide for understanding, using, and developing PTMs for various NLP tasks.

This article focuses on the development and evaluation of Small-sized Czech sentence embedding models. Small models are important components for real-time industry applications in resource-constrained environments. Given the limited availability of labeled Czech data, alternative approaches, including pre-training, knowledge distillation, and unsupervised contrastive fine-tuning, are investigated. Comprehensive intrinsic and extrinsic analyses are conducted, showcasing the competitive performance of our models compared to significantly larger counterparts, with approximately 8 times smaller size and 5 times faster speed than conventional Base-sized models. To promote cooperation and reproducibility, both the models and the evaluation pipeline are made publicly accessible. Ultimately, this article presents practical applications of the developed sentence embedding models in Seznam.cz, the Czech search engine. These models have effectively replaced previous counterparts, enhancing the overall search experience for instance, in organic search, featured snippets, and image search. This transition has yielded improved performance.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

The advancement of transformer neural networks has significantly elevated the capabilities of sentence similarity models, particularly in creating effective vector representations of natural language inputs. However, these models face notable challenges in domain-specific contexts, especially in highly specialized scientific sub-fields. Traditional methods often struggle in this regime, either overgeneralizing similarities within a niche or being overly sensitive to minor differences, resulting in inaccurate text classification and subpar vector representation. In an era where retrieval augmentation and search are increasingly crucial, precise and concise numerical representations are essential. In this paper, we target this issue by assembling niche datasets using co-citations as a similarity metric, focusing on biomedical domains. We employ two key strategies for fine-tuning state-of-the-art models: 1. Domain-specific Fine-Tuning, which tailors pretrained models to a single domain, and 2. Universal Applicability with Mixture of Experts (MoE), adapting pretrained models with enforced routing for multiple domains simultaneously. Our training approach emphasizes the use of abstracts for faster training, incorporating Multiple Negative Rankings loss for efficient contrastive learning. Notably, our MoE variants, equipped with N experts, achieve the efficacy of N individual models, heralding a new era of versatile, One-Size-Fits-All transformer networks for various tasks. This methodology marks significant advancements in scientific text classification metrics and holds promise for enhancing vector database search and compilation.

LLM Ensemble -- which involves the comprehensive use of multiple large language models (LLMs), each aimed at handling user queries during downstream inference, to benefit from their individual strengths -- has gained substantial attention recently. The widespread availability of LLMs, coupled with their varying strengths and out-of-the-box usability, has profoundly advanced the field of LLM Ensemble. This paper presents the first systematic review of recent developments in LLM Ensemble. First, we introduce our taxonomy of LLM Ensemble and discuss several related research problems. Then, we provide a more in-depth classification of the methods under the broad categories of "ensemble-before-inference, ensemble-during-inference, ensemble-after-inference'', and review all relevant methods. Finally, we introduce related benchmarks and applications, summarize existing studies, and suggest several future research directions. A curated list of papers on LLM Ensemble is available at https://github.com/junchenzhi/Awesome-LLM-Ensemble.

We describe new datasets for studying generalization from easy to hard examples.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (S^2IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, S^2IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed S^2IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Summarization quality evaluation is a non-trivial task in text summarization. Contemporary methods can be mainly categorized into two scenarios: (1) reference-based: evaluating with human-labeled reference summary; (2) reference-free: evaluating the summary consistency of the document. Recent studies mainly focus on one of these scenarios and explore training neural models built on PLMs to align with human criteria. However, the models from different scenarios are optimized individually, which may result in sub-optimal performance since they neglect the shared knowledge across different scenarios. Besides, designing individual models for each scenario caused inconvenience to the user. Inspired by this, we propose Unified Multi-scenario Summarization Evaluation Model (UMSE). More specifically, we propose a perturbed prefix tuning method to share cross-scenario knowledge between scenarios and use a self-supervised training paradigm to optimize the model without extra human labeling. Our UMSE is the first unified summarization evaluation framework engaged with the ability to be used in three evaluation scenarios. Experimental results across three typical scenarios on the benchmark dataset SummEval indicate that our UMSE can achieve comparable performance with several existing strong methods which are specifically designed for each scenario.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Autoregressive language models are constrained by their inherently sequential nature, generating one token at a time. This paradigm limits inference speed and parallelism, especially during later stages of generation when the direction and semantics of text are relatively certain. In this work, we propose a novel framework that leverages the inherent knowledge of vanilla autoregressive language models about future tokens, combining techniques to realize this potential and enable simultaneous prediction of multiple subsequent tokens. Our approach introduces several key innovations: (1) a masked-input formulation where multiple future tokens are jointly predicted from a common prefix; (2) a gated LoRA formulation that preserves the original LLM's functionality, while equipping it for multi-token prediction; (3) a lightweight, learnable sampler module that generates coherent sequences from the predicted future tokens; (4) a set of auxiliary training losses, including a consistency loss, to enhance the coherence and accuracy of jointly generated tokens; and (5) a speculative generation strategy that expands tokens quadratically in the future while maintaining high fidelity. Our method achieves significant speedups through supervised fine-tuning on pretrained models. For example, it generates code and math nearly 5x faster, and improves general chat and knowledge tasks by almost 2.5x. These gains come without any loss in quality.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Inference tasks such as answer sentence selection (AS2) or fact verification are typically solved by fine-tuning transformer-based models as individual sentence-pair classifiers. Recent studies show that these tasks benefit from modeling dependencies across multiple candidate sentences jointly. In this paper, we first show that popular pre-trained transformers perform poorly when used for fine-tuning on multi-candidate inference tasks. We then propose a new pre-training objective that models the paragraph-level semantics across multiple input sentences. Our evaluation on three AS2 and one fact verification datasets demonstrates the superiority of our pre-training technique over the traditional ones for transformers used as joint models for multi-candidate inference tasks, as well as when used as cross-encoders for sentence-pair formulations of these tasks. Our code and pre-trained models are released at https://github.com/amazon-research/wqa-multi-sentence-inference .

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

This technical report describes the design and training of novel speculative decoding draft models, for accelerating the inference speeds of large language models in a production environment. By conditioning draft predictions on both context vectors and sampled tokens, we can train our speculators to efficiently predict high-quality n-grams, which the base model then accepts or rejects. This allows us to effectively predict multiple tokens per inference forward pass, accelerating wall-clock inference speeds of highly optimized base model implementations by a factor of 2-3x. We explore these initial results and describe next steps for further improvements.

Most Reading Comprehension methods limit themselves to queries which can be answered using a single sentence, paragraph, or document. Enabling models to combine disjoint pieces of textual evidence would extend the scope of machine comprehension methods, but currently there exist no resources to train and test this capability. We propose a novel task to encourage the development of models for text understanding across multiple documents and to investigate the limits of existing methods. In our task, a model learns to seek and combine evidence - effectively performing multi-hop (alias multi-step) inference. We devise a methodology to produce datasets for this task, given a collection of query-answer pairs and thematically linked documents. Two datasets from different domains are induced, and we identify potential pitfalls and devise circumvention strategies. We evaluate two previously proposed competitive models and find that one can integrate information across documents. However, both models struggle to select relevant information, as providing documents guaranteed to be relevant greatly improves their performance. While the models outperform several strong baselines, their best accuracy reaches 42.9% compared to human performance at 74.0% - leaving ample room for improvement.

Modeling semantic plausibility requires commonsense knowledge about the world and has been used as a testbed for exploring various knowledge representations. Previous work has focused specifically on modeling physical plausibility and shown that distributional methods fail when tested in a supervised setting. At the same time, distributional models, namely large pretrained language models, have led to improved results for many natural language understanding tasks. In this work, we show that these pretrained language models are in fact effective at modeling physical plausibility in the supervised setting. We therefore present the more difficult problem of learning to model physical plausibility directly from text. We create a training set by extracting attested events from a large corpus, and we provide a baseline for training on these attested events in a self-supervised manner and testing on a physical plausibility task. We believe results could be further improved by injecting explicit commonsense knowledge into a distributional model.

Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this task are often limited in quality, hindering the progress of related research. In this paper, we introduce WORLDREP (WORLD Relationship and Event Prediction), a novel dataset designed to address these limitations by leveraging the advanced reasoning capabilities of large-language models (LLMs). Our dataset features high-quality scoring labels generated through advanced prompt modeling and rigorously validated by domain experts in political science. We showcase the quality and utility of WORLDREP for real-world event prediction tasks, demonstrating its effectiveness through extensive experiments and analysis. Furthermore, we publicly release our dataset along with the full automation source code for data collection, labeling, and benchmarking, aiming to support and advance research in text-based event prediction.

Establishing whether language models can use contextual information in a human-plausible way is important to ensure their safe adoption in real-world settings. However, the questions of when and which parts of the context affect model generations are typically tackled separately, and current plausibility evaluations are practically limited to a handful of artificial benchmarks. To address this, we introduce Plausibility Evaluation of Context Reliance (PECoRe), an end-to-end interpretability framework designed to quantify context usage in language models' generations. Our approach leverages model internals to (i) contrastively identify context-sensitive target tokens in generated texts and (ii) link them to contextual cues justifying their prediction. We use PECoRe to quantify the plausibility of context-aware machine translation models, comparing model rationales with human annotations across several discourse-level phenomena. Finally, we apply our method to unannotated generations to identify context-mediated predictions and highlight instances of (im)plausible context usage in model translations.

Building on the foundations of language modeling in natural language processing, Next Token Prediction (NTP) has evolved into a versatile training objective for machine learning tasks across various modalities, achieving considerable success. As Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced to unify understanding and generation tasks within the textual modality, recent research has shown that tasks from different modalities can also be effectively encapsulated within the NTP framework, transforming the multimodal information into tokens and predict the next one given the context. This survey introduces a comprehensive taxonomy that unifies both understanding and generation within multimodal learning through the lens of NTP. The proposed taxonomy covers five key aspects: Multimodal tokenization, MMNTP model architectures, unified task representation, datasets \& evaluation, and open challenges. This new taxonomy aims to aid researchers in their exploration of multimodal intelligence. An associated GitHub repository collecting the latest papers and repos is available at https://github.com/LMM101/Awesome-Multimodal-Next-Token-Prediction

Language models (LMs) can make a correct prediction based on many possible signals in a prompt, not all corresponding to recall of factual associations. However, current interpretations of LMs fail to take this into account. For example, given the query "Astrid Lindgren was born in" with the corresponding completion "Sweden", no difference is made between whether the prediction was based on knowing where the author was born or assuming that a person with a Swedish-sounding name was born in Sweden. In this paper, we present a model-specific recipe - PrISM - for constructing datasets with examples of four different prediction scenarios: generic language modeling, guesswork, heuristics recall and exact fact recall. We apply two popular interpretability methods to the scenarios: causal tracing (CT) and information flow analysis. We find that both yield distinct results for each scenario. Results for exact fact recall and generic language modeling scenarios confirm previous conclusions about the importance of mid-range MLP sublayers for fact recall, while results for guesswork and heuristics indicate a critical role of late last token position MLP sublayers. In summary, we contribute resources for a more extensive and granular study of fact completion in LMs, together with analyses that provide a more nuanced understanding of how LMs process fact-related queries.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown great potential in perception and interpretation tasks, but their capabilities in predictive reasoning remain under-explored. To address this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark that assesses the predictive reasoning capabilities of MLLMs across diverse scenarios. Our benchmark targets three important domains: abstract pattern reasoning, human activity prediction, and physical interaction prediction. We further develop three evaluation methods powered by large language model to robustly quantify a model's performance in predicting and reasoning the future based on multi-visual context. Empirical experiments confirm the soundness of the proposed benchmark and evaluation methods via rigorous testing and reveal pros and cons of current popular MLLMs in the task of predictive reasoning. Lastly, our proposed benchmark provides a standardized evaluation framework for MLLMs and can facilitate the development of more advanced models that can reason and predict over complex long sequence of multimodal input.

In task-oriented dialogue, a system often needs to follow a sequence of actions, called a workflow, that complies with a set of guidelines in order to complete a task. In this paper, we propose the novel problem of multi-step workflow action prediction, in which the system predicts multiple future workflow actions. Accurate prediction of multiple steps allows for multi-turn automation, which can free up time to focus on more complex tasks. We propose three modeling approaches that are simple to implement yet lead to more action automation: 1) fine-tuning on a training dataset, 2) few-shot in-context learning leveraging retrieval and large language model prompting, and 3) zero-shot graph traversal, which aggregates historical action sequences into a graph for prediction. We show that multi-step action prediction produces features that improve accuracy on downstream dialogue tasks like predicting task success, and can increase automation of steps by 20% without requiring as much feedback from a human overseeing the system.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

A large number of reading comprehension (RC) datasets has been created recently, but little analysis has been done on whether they generalize to one another, and the extent to which existing datasets can be leveraged for improving performance on new ones. In this paper, we conduct such an investigation over ten RC datasets, training on one or more source RC datasets, and evaluating generalization, as well as transfer to a target RC dataset. We analyze the factors that contribute to generalization, and show that training on a source RC dataset and transferring to a target dataset substantially improves performance, even in the presence of powerful contextual representations from BERT (Devlin et al., 2019). We also find that training on multiple source RC datasets leads to robust generalization and transfer, and can reduce the cost of example collection for a new RC dataset. Following our analysis, we propose MultiQA, a BERT-based model, trained on multiple RC datasets, which leads to state-of-the-art performance on five RC datasets. We share our infrastructure for the benefit of the research community.

Topic segmentation is important in understanding scientific documents since it can not only provide better readability but also facilitate downstream tasks such as information retrieval and question answering by creating appropriate sections or paragraphs. In the topic segmentation task, topic coherence is critical in predicting segmentation boundaries. Most of the existing models have tried to exploit as many contexts as possible to extract useful topic-related information. However, additional context does not always bring promising results, because the local context between sentences becomes incoherent despite more sentences being supplemented. To alleviate this issue, we propose siamese sentence embedding layers which process two input sentences independently to get appropriate amount of information without being hampered by excessive information. Also, we adopt multi-task learning techniques including Same Topic Prediction (STP), Topic Classification (TC) and Next Sentence Prediction (NSP). When these three classification layers are combined in a multi-task manner, they can make up for each other's limitations, improving performance in all three tasks. We experiment different combinations of the three layers and report how each layer affects other layers in the same combination as well as the overall segmentation performance. The model we proposed achieves the state-of-the-art result in the WikiSection dataset.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

Keeping track of all relevant recent publications and experimental results for a research area is a challenging task. Prior work has demonstrated the efficacy of information extraction models in various scientific areas. Recently, several datasets have been released for the yet understudied materials science domain. However, these datasets focus on sub-problems such as parsing synthesis procedures or on sub-domains, e.g., solid oxide fuel cells. In this resource paper, we present MuLMS, a new dataset of 50 open-access articles, spanning seven sub-domains of materials science. The corpus has been annotated by domain experts with several layers ranging from named entities over relations to frame structures. We present competitive neural models for all tasks and demonstrate that multi-task training with existing related resources leads to benefits.

Audio-visual event parsing plays a crucial role in understanding multimodal video content, but existing methods typically rely on offline processing of entire videos with huge model sizes, limiting their real-time applicability. We introduce Online Audio-Visual Event Parsing (On-AVEP), a novel paradigm for parsing audio, visual, and audio-visual events by sequentially analyzing incoming video streams. The On-AVEP task necessitates models with two key capabilities: (1) Accurate online inference, to effectively distinguish events with unclear and limited context in online settings, and (2) Real-time efficiency, to balance high performance with computational constraints. To cultivate these, we propose the Predictive Future Modeling (PreFM) framework featured by (a) predictive multimodal future modeling to infer and integrate beneficial future audio-visual cues, thereby enhancing contextual understanding and (b) modality-agnostic robust representation along with focal temporal prioritization to improve precision and generalization. Extensive experiments on the UnAV-100 and LLP datasets show PreFM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a large margin with significantly fewer parameters, offering an insightful approach for real-time multimodal video understanding. Code is available at https://github.com/XiaoYu-1123/PreFM.

We present the Legal Passage Retrieval Dataset LePaRD. LePaRD is a massive collection of U.S. federal judicial citations to precedent in context. The dataset aims to facilitate work on legal passage prediction, a challenging practice-oriented legal retrieval and reasoning task. Legal passage prediction seeks to predict relevant passages from precedential court decisions given the context of a legal argument. We extensively evaluate various retrieval approaches on LePaRD, and find that classification appears to work best. However, we note that legal precedent prediction is a difficult task, and there remains significant room for improvement. We hope that by publishing LePaRD, we will encourage others to engage with a legal NLP task that promises to help expand access to justice by reducing the burden associated with legal research. A subset of the LePaRD dataset is freely available and the whole dataset will be released upon publication.

Retrieval-augmented in-context learning has emerged as a powerful approach for addressing knowledge-intensive tasks using frozen language models (LM) and retrieval models (RM). Existing work has combined these in simple "retrieve-then-read" pipelines in which the RM retrieves passages that are inserted into the LM prompt. To begin to fully realize the potential of frozen LMs and RMs, we propose Demonstrate-Search-Predict (DSP), a framework that relies on passing natural language texts in sophisticated pipelines between an LM and an RM. DSP can express high-level programs that bootstrap pipeline-aware demonstrations, search for relevant passages, and generate grounded predictions, systematically breaking down problems into small transformations that the LM and RM can handle more reliably. We have written novel DSP programs for answering questions in open-domain, multi-hop, and conversational settings, establishing in early evaluations new state-of-the-art in-context learning results and delivering 37-120%, 8-39%, and 80-290% relative gains against the vanilla LM (GPT-3.5), a standard retrieve-then-read pipeline, and a contemporaneous self-ask pipeline, respectively. We release DSP at https://github.com/stanfordnlp/dsp

Large Language Models achieve next-token prediction by transporting a vectorized piece of text (prompt) across an accompanying embedding space under the action of successive transformer layers. The resulting high-dimensional trajectories realize different contextualization, or 'thinking', steps, and fully determine the output probability distribution. We aim to characterize the statistical properties of ensembles of these 'lines of thought.' We observe that independent trajectories cluster along a low-dimensional, non-Euclidean manifold, and that their path can be well approximated by a stochastic equation with few parameters extracted from data. We find it remarkable that the vast complexity of such large models can be reduced to a much simpler form, and we reflect on implications.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

The remarkable capability of large language models (LLMs) for in-context learning (ICL) needs to be activated by demonstration examples. Prior work has extensively explored the selection of examples for ICL, predominantly following the "select then organize" paradigm, such approaches often neglect the internal relationships between examples and exist an inconsistency between the training and inference. In this paper, we formulate the problem as a sequential selection problem and introduce Se^2, a sequential-aware method that leverages the LLM's feedback on varying context, aiding in capturing inter-relationships and sequential information among examples, significantly enriching the contextuality and relevance of ICL prompts. Meanwhile, we utilize beam search to seek and construct example sequences, enhancing both quality and diversity. Extensive experiments across 23 NLP tasks from 8 distinct categories illustrate that Se^2 markedly surpasses competitive baselines and achieves 42% relative improvement over random selection. Further in-depth analysis show the effectiveness of proposed strategies, highlighting Se^2's exceptional stability and adaptability across various scenarios. Our code will be released to facilitate future research.

There are two common ways in which developers are incorporating proprietary and domain-specific data when building applications of Large Language Models (LLMs): Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and Fine-Tuning. RAG augments the prompt with the external data, while fine-Tuning incorporates the additional knowledge into the model itself. However, the pros and cons of both approaches are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a pipeline for fine-tuning and RAG, and present the tradeoffs of both for multiple popular LLMs, including Llama2-13B, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4. Our pipeline consists of multiple stages, including extracting information from PDFs, generating questions and answers, using them for fine-tuning, and leveraging GPT-4 for evaluating the results. We propose metrics to assess the performance of different stages of the RAG and fine-Tuning pipeline. We conduct an in-depth study on an agricultural dataset. Agriculture as an industry has not seen much penetration of AI, and we study a potentially disruptive application - what if we could provide location-specific insights to a farmer? Our results show the effectiveness of our dataset generation pipeline in capturing geographic-specific knowledge, and the quantitative and qualitative benefits of RAG and fine-tuning. We see an accuracy increase of over 6 p.p. when fine-tuning the model and this is cumulative with RAG, which increases accuracy by 5 p.p. further. In one particular experiment, we also demonstrate that the fine-tuned model leverages information from across geographies to answer specific questions, increasing answer similarity from 47% to 72%. Overall, the results point to how systems built using LLMs can be adapted to respond and incorporate knowledge across a dimension that is critical for a specific industry, paving the way for further applications of LLMs in other industrial domains.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

This paper reviews the MARS2 2025 Challenge on Multimodal Reasoning. We aim to bring together different approaches in multimodal machine learning and LLMs via a large benchmark. We hope it better allows researchers to follow the state-of-the-art in this very dynamic area. Meanwhile, a growing number of testbeds have boosted the evolution of general-purpose large language models. Thus, this year's MARS2 focuses on real-world and specialized scenarios to broaden the multimodal reasoning applications of MLLMs. Our organizing team released two tailored datasets Lens and AdsQA as test sets, which support general reasoning in 12 daily scenarios and domain-specific reasoning in advertisement videos, respectively. We evaluated 40+ baselines that include both generalist MLLMs and task-specific models, and opened up three competition tracks, i.e., Visual Grounding in Real-world Scenarios (VG-RS), Visual Question Answering with Spatial Awareness (VQA-SA), and Visual Reasoning in Creative Advertisement Videos (VR-Ads). Finally, 76 teams from the renowned academic and industrial institutions have registered and 40+ valid submissions (out of 1200+) have been included in our ranking lists. Our datasets, code sets (40+ baselines and 15+ participants' methods), and rankings are publicly available on the MARS2 workshop website and our GitHub organization page https://github.com/mars2workshop/, where our updates and announcements of upcoming events will be continuously provided.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance across numerous tasks by using a diverse array of adaptation strategies. However, optimally selecting a model and adaptation strategy under resource constraints is challenging and often requires extensive experimentation. We investigate whether it is possible to accurately predict both performance and cost without expensive trials. We formalize the strategy selection problem for LLMs and introduce COSMOS, a unified prediction framework that efficiently estimates adaptation outcomes at minimal cost. We instantiate and study the capability of our framework via a pair of powerful predictors: embedding-augmented lightweight proxy models to predict fine-tuning performance, and low-sample scaling laws to forecast retrieval-augmented in-context learning. Extensive evaluation across eight representative benchmarks demonstrates that COSMOS achieves high prediction accuracy while reducing computational costs by 92.72% on average, and up to 98.71% in resource-intensive scenarios. Our results show that efficient prediction of adaptation outcomes is not only feasible but can substantially reduce the computational overhead of LLM deployment while maintaining performance standards.

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.