Daily Papers

Tariff threats can move household beliefs before policy is enacted, yet their rapidly changing language is difficult to study with conventional surveys. We build a multi-agent system that turns 300 households from the Michigan Surveys of Consumers into persistent large-language-model agents exposed to social-media information over several simulated months. Calibrated agents reproduce some distributional and demographic patterns in human survey data collected after the announcement of Liberation Day tariffs. Simulated experiments indicate that immediacy, rate salience, semantic progression, message complexity, narrative, and sender identity jointly shape inflation and unemployment expectations and their dispersion. Open-ended responses trace these effects to attention, ambiguity, credibility, and causal narratives. A second experiment finds that central-bank explanations can coordinate beliefs, although their effects on average expectations depend on message content. The framework supports disciplined exploration of policy communication, subject to human validation rather than as a substitute for it.

Large language model agents are increasingly envisioned as always-on personal assistants with access to anything relevant in the user's digital world. Yet current systems operate over only narrow slices of that world, limiting context-sensitive reasoning and effective assistance. Existing benchmarks similarly provide only partial user state and therefore fail to capture performance in such a broad, always-on setting. To address this gap, we introduce Claw-Anything, a benchmark that expands agent context along three dimensions: long-horizon activity histories, interdependent backend services, and integrated GUI and CLI interaction across multiple devices. To instantiate this setting, we simulate months of user activity through multi-round event injection, producing complex world states and realistic noise, including irrelevant events and conflicting signals. Agents must reason over rich contextual environments while remaining robust to such noise. This expanded scope also enables the evaluation of proactive assistance, requiring agents to anticipate user needs and deliver timely recommendations. Experiments show that GPT-5.5 achieves only 34.5% pass@1, substantially below prior benchmarks, underscoring a gap between current agent capabilities and the demands of always-on personal assistance. Alongside the benchmark, we release an automated data-generation pipeline that yields 2,000 training environments and improves the base model by 23.7%, demonstrating its utility of scalable data infrastructure.

LLM safety evaluations predominantly test models in isolation, yet deployed AI agents increasingly operate within persistent social environments alongside other agents. We introduce a Moltbook-style simulation platform where thousands of LLM agents interact across communities over a simulated month, and use it to evaluate privacy as a downstream safety concern under varying degrees of social pressure. We find that shifting from single turn to multi turn social evaluation amplifies privacy violations (CIMemories 19.95% to Ours 45.30% across OpenAI models), that leakage is socially contagious, with agents 8 times more likely to disclose sensitive information after observing a peer do so, and that explicit privacy instructions reduce but do not eliminate this effect, leaving leakage rates above 37.8% even with safeguards. Our findings suggest that static chat based safety benchmarks systematically underestimate risks in agentic deployment, and that social context alone is sufficient to elicit sensitive disclosures that single turn evaluations would never surface.

Recent self-supervised learning (SSL) models trained on human-like egocentric visual inputs substantially underperform on image recognition tasks compared to humans. These models train on raw, uniform visual inputs collected from head-mounted cameras. This is different from humans, as the anatomical structure of the retina and visual cortex relatively amplifies the central visual information, i.e. around humans' gaze location. This selective amplification in humans likely aids in forming object-centered visual representations. Here, we investigate whether focusing on central visual information boosts egocentric visual object learning. We simulate 5-months of egocentric visual experience using the large-scale Ego4D dataset and generate gaze locations with a human gaze prediction model. To account for the importance of central vision in humans, we crop the visual area around the gaze location. Finally, we train a time-based SSL model on these modified inputs. Our experiments demonstrate that focusing on central vision leads to better object-centered representations. Our analysis shows that the SSL model leverages the temporal dynamics of the gaze movements to build stronger visual representations. Overall, our work marks a significant step toward bio-inspired learning of visual representations.

Understanding the galaxy-halo relationship is not only key for elucidating the interplay between baryonic and dark matter, it is essential for creating large mock galaxy catalogues from N-body simulations. High-resolution hydrodynamical simulations are limited to small volumes by their large computational demands, hindering their use for comparisons with wide-field observational surveys. We overcome this limitation by using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of high-resolution (M_gas = 1.8 x 10^6 M_Sun) zoom simulations drawn from a large, (3.2 cGpc)^3 box. We use an extremely randomised trees machine learning approach to model the relationship between galaxies and their subhaloes in a wide range of environments. This allows us to build mock catalogues with dynamic ranges that surpass those obtainable through periodic simulations. The low cost of the zoom simulations facilitates multiple runs of the same regions, differing only in the random number seed of the subgrid models; changing this seed introduces a butterfly effect, leading to random differences in the properties of matching galaxies. This randomness cannot be learnt by a deterministic machine learning model, but by sampling the noise and adding it post-facto to our predictions, we are able to recover the distributions of the galaxy properties we predict (stellar mass, star formation rate, metallicity, and size) remarkably well. We also explore the resolution-dependence of our models' performances and find minimal depreciation down to particle resolutions of order M_DM ~ 10^8 M_Sun, enabling the future application of our models to large dark matter-only boxes.

Here, we describe Monthly Diffusion at 1.5-degree grid spacing (MD-1.5 version 0.9), a climate emulator that leverages a spherical Fourier neural operator (SFNO)-inspired Conditional Variational Auto-Encoder (CVAE) architecture to model the evolution of low-frequency internal atmospheric variability using latent diffusion. MDv0.9 was designed to forward-step at monthly mean timesteps in a data-sparse regime, using modest computational requirements. This work describes the motivation behind the architecture design, the MDv0.9 training procedure, and initial results.

Simulating human clients in mental health counseling is crucial for training and evaluating counselors (both human or simulated) in a scalable manner. Nevertheless, past research on client simulation did not focus on complex conversation tasks such as mental health counseling. In these tasks, the challenge is to ensure that the client's actions (i.e., interactions with the counselor) are consistent with with its stipulated profiles and negative behavior settings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that supports consistent client simulation for mental health counseling. Our framework tracks the mental state of a simulated client, controls its state transitions, and generates for each state behaviors consistent with the client's motivation, beliefs, preferred plan to change, and receptivity. By varying the client profile and receptivity, we demonstrate that consistent simulated clients for different counseling scenarios can be effectively created. Both our automatic and expert evaluations on the generated counseling sessions also show that our client simulation method achieves higher consistency than previous methods.

Generative models have the potential to transform the way we emulate Earth's changing climate. Previous generative approaches rely on weather-scale autoregression for climate emulation, but this is inherently slow for long climate horizons and has yet to demonstrate stable rollouts under nonstationary forcings. Here, we introduce Spatiotemporal Pyramid Flows (SPF), a new class of flow matching approaches that model data hierarchically across spatial and temporal scales. Inspired by cascaded video models, SPF partitions the generative trajectory into a spatiotemporal pyramid, progressively increasing spatial resolution to reduce computation and coupling each stage with an associated timescale to enable direct sampling at any temporal level in the pyramid. This design, together with conditioning each stage on prescribed physical forcings (e.g., greenhouse gases or aerosols), enables efficient, parallel climate emulation at multiple timescales. On ClimateBench, SPF outperforms strong flow matching baselines and pre-trained models at yearly and monthly timescales while offering fast sampling, especially at coarser temporal levels. To scale SPF, we curate ClimateSuite, the largest collection of Earth system simulations to date, comprising over 33,000 simulation-years across ten climate models and the first dataset to include simulations of climate interventions. We find that the scaled SPF model demonstrates good generalization to held-out scenarios across climate models. Together, SPF and ClimateSuite provide a foundation for accurate, efficient, probabilistic climate emulation across temporal scales and realistic future scenarios. Data and code is publicly available at https://github.com/stanfordmlgroup/spf .

Climate change has resulted in a year over year increase in adverse weather and weather conditions which contribute to increasingly severe fire seasons. Without effective mitigation, these fires pose a threat to life, property, ecology, cultural heritage, and critical infrastructure. To better prepare for and react to the increasing threat of wildfires, more accurate fire modelers and mitigation responses are necessary. In this paper, we introduce SimFire, a versatile wildland fire projection simulator designed to generate realistic wildfire scenarios, and SimHarness, a modular agent-based machine learning wrapper capable of automatically generating land management strategies within SimFire to reduce the overall damage to the area. Together, this publicly available system allows researchers and practitioners the ability to emulate and assess the effectiveness of firefighter interventions and formulate strategic plans that prioritize value preservation and resource allocation optimization. The repositories are available for download at https://github.com/mitrefireline.

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.