README.md

metadata

title: Did Something Actually Change
emoji: 🎲
colorFrom: blue
colorTo: green
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 6.19.0
app_file: app.py
pinned: false
license: mit
short_description: Is it noise, did it really change? Paste numbers, find out.

🎲 Did Something Actually Change?

A noise-vs-real-change detector for everyday numbers — weight, spending, sleep, electricity bills. People make two mistakes with numbers they track: panicking at random wobble and missing slow real change. Paste your values, get a plain answer:

"Just noise — relax" or "Yes — it really changed, around day 47, from 84.1 to 82.6."

How it works (honestly)

The engine is the Clutch: a tiny model keeps predicting your next number from your recent trend; only when reality breaks the prediction harder than your normal day-to-day wobble does it flag a change. Flagged moments are refined with a local step-fit to name the day it happened and the before/after levels. Slow steady drifts (that never "break" a trend model) are detected and reported separately — that slow kind of change is exactly what people miss.

Calibration, measured (verdict-level, synthetic suites):

• pure noise, 50 seeds → 1/50 false "it changed" verdicts
• a real 2.5-sigma jump → detected 38/50, flagged on average 0.3 days from the true day
• a diet-style slope change → detected 30/30
• a borderline 1.5-sigma jump → detected only 6/30 — missing what can't be distinguished from luck is the honest behavior, and the suspicion slider lets you trade this off.

Nothing is stored; numbers live only in your browser session. This is a statistics tool, not medical or financial advice.

Files

• change.py — detection engine (Clutch + gate, event refinement, plain-language verdicts)
• clutch.py — the controller, unchanged from the compute demo
• app.py — the Gradio app

Built by Antti Luode (PerceptionLab). Do not hype. Do not lie. Just show.