README.md

---
title: Did Something Actually Change
emoji: 🎲
colorFrom: blue
colorTo: green
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 6.19.0
app_file: app.py
pinned: false
license: mit
short_description: Is it noise, did it really change? Paste numbers, find out.
---

# 🎲 Did Something Actually Change?

A noise-vs-real-change detector for everyday numbers — weight, spending, sleep,
electricity bills. People make two mistakes with numbers they track: **panicking at
random wobble** and **missing slow real change**. Paste your values, get a plain answer:

> **"Just noise — relax"** or **"Yes — it really changed, around day 47, from 84.1 to 82.6."**

## How it works (honestly)

The engine is the [Clutch](https://huggingface.co/spaces/Aluode/Clutch2): a tiny model
keeps predicting your next number from your recent trend; only when reality breaks the
prediction harder than your normal day-to-day wobble does it flag a change. Flagged
moments are refined with a local step-fit to name the day it happened and the
before/after levels. Slow steady drifts (that never "break" a trend model) are detected
and reported separately — that slow kind of change is exactly what people miss.

Calibration, measured (verdict-level, synthetic suites):
- pure noise, 50 seeds → **1/50 false "it changed"** verdicts
- a real 2.5-sigma jump → detected **38/50**, flagged on average **0.3 days** from the true day
- a diet-style slope change → detected **30/30**
- a borderline 1.5-sigma jump → detected only 6/30 — **missing what can't be distinguished
  from luck is the honest behavior**, and the suspicion slider lets you trade this off.

Nothing is stored; numbers live only in your browser session. This is a statistics tool,
not medical or financial advice.

## Files
- `change.py` — detection engine (Clutch + gate, event refinement, plain-language verdicts)
- `clutch.py` — the controller, unchanged from the compute demo
- `app.py` — the Gradio app

Built by Antti Luode (PerceptionLab). *Do not hype. Do not lie. Just show.*