docs/Executive_brief.md

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# **Executive Brief — Decision Kernel Lite**

## **Why This Exists**

Most decisions fail not because of missing data, but because uncertainty is handled informally:

* probabilities are debated, not modeled
* downside risk is underweighted
* justifications are retrospective, not structured

Decision Kernel Lite provides a **simple, auditable mechanism** to choose actions when outcomes are uncertain and costs are asymmetric.

It replaces intuition-driven debate with **explicit trade-offs**.

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## **What the System Does**

Decision Kernel Lite takes four inputs:

* a set of **actions**
* a set of plausible **scenarios**
* **probabilities** for each scenario
* a **loss matrix** describing consequences

From these, it produces:

* a **single recommended action**
* a clear justification using multiple risk lenses
* a **Decision Card** suitable for executive review

No forecasting.
No optimization.
Only the decision.

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## **The Three Risk Lenses**

The system evaluates every action using three complementary rules.

### **1. Expected Loss — “What works best on average?”**

* Optimizes average outcome
* Appropriate when probabilities are trusted
* Best for repeatable decisions

This is the default economic lens.

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### **2. Minimax Regret — “What will I regret least?”**

* Optimizes post-hoc defensibility
* Appropriate when probabilities are unreliable or disputed
* Best for one-shot, high-accountability decisions

This lens protects decision-makers from hindsight criticism.

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### **3. CVaR — “How bad are the bad cases?”**

* Focuses on tail risk
* Appropriate when rare failures are unacceptable
* Best for safety, financial ruin, or irreversible outcomes

This lens prioritizes survival over average performance.

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## **How the Final Decision Is Chosen**

* All three lenses are computed simultaneously
* A **primary decision rule** is selected explicitly
* A heuristic recommendation is provided, but can be overridden

This ensures:

* transparency
* governance
* accountability

There is no “black box” choice.

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## **What the Output Looks Like**

The system produces a **Decision Card** summarizing:

* the recommended action
* the assumptions used
* how each rule evaluated the options
* why the final rule was chosen

This artifact can be:

* pasted into an executive memo
* included in a slide deck
* stored for audit and review

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## **What Makes This Different**

Decision Kernel Lite does **not** attempt to:

* predict demand
* estimate probabilities automatically
* optimize operational parameters

Its value lies in **decision clarity**, not model sophistication.

It sits between:

* analytics (what might happen)
* and operations (what to do)

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## **Typical Use Cases**

* strategic one-off choices
* pricing or investment decisions with asymmetric downside
* contract or supplier selection
* policy or governance decisions
* scenario planning workshops

Any situation where:

> “We must decide, even though we are uncertain.”

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## **Business Value**

Organizations using structured decision kernels achieve:

* faster decision cycles
* fewer unexamined assumptions
* reduced post-decision conflict
* clearer accountability

Most importantly:

> Decisions become explainable, not just executable.

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## **Positioning**

Decision Kernel Lite is a **foundational decision layer**.

It can be:

* used standalone
* embedded into larger planning systems
* integrated downstream of forecasting or upstream of optimization

It is deliberately minimal, fast, and domain-agnostic.

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## **Bottom Line**

Decision Kernel Lite does not promise certainty.

It delivers something more valuable:

> **Clarity about what you are choosing — and why — under uncertainty.**

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