README.md

metadata

title: Nouns Proposal Check
emoji: 🤓
colorFrom: red
colorTo: gray
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 5.44.1
app_file: app.py
pinned: false
license: mit

Nouns Proposal Check

A calibration tool for Nouns DAO proposers. It does not predict whether your proposal will pass — the underlying model isn't accurate enough for that, and saying so is the point.

It shows you three things:

1. The current base rate. After the BreakEven bloc began voting down spend (~proposal #786), the pass rate fell from ~56% to ~28%. Most proposers don't know this number. It's the single most useful fact here.
2. Where your proposal ranks against past proposals in the current regime.
3. The most similar past proposals and what happened to them — go read them.

The finding behind it

A DistilBERT model fine-tuned on 982 Nouns proposals reaches AUC 0.65 — real but weak ranking signal. That signal survives the BreakEven regime change: the model still ranks proposals about as well as before. What broke is calibration. Pass probability collapsed, and a model trained on the old regime is systematically overconfident about the new one.

BreakEven didn't change what makes a proposal good. It changed how good a proposal has to be.

Verify it

• Model: https://huggingface.co/gramajo/nouns-proposal-predictor
• Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/gramajo/nouns-proposals
• Exact split IDs + raw metrics: splits.json / results.json in the model repo

Trust but verify. Open a discussion if you find a flaw.