README.md

---
title: Nouns Proposal Check
emoji: 🤓
colorFrom: red
colorTo: gray
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 5.44.1
app_file: app.py
pinned: false
license: mit
---

# Nouns Proposal Check

A calibration tool for Nouns DAO proposers. It does **not** predict whether your
proposal will pass — the underlying model isn't accurate enough for that, and
saying so is the point.

It shows you three things:

1. **The current base rate.** After the BreakEven bloc began voting down spend
   (~proposal #786), the pass rate fell from ~56% to ~28%. Most proposers don't
   know this number. It's the single most useful fact here.
2. **Where your proposal ranks** against past proposals in the current regime.
3. **The most similar past proposals** and what happened to them — go read them.

## The finding behind it

A DistilBERT model fine-tuned on 982 Nouns proposals reaches AUC 0.65 — real but
weak ranking signal. That signal *survives* the BreakEven regime change: the model
still ranks proposals about as well as before. What broke is calibration. Pass
probability collapsed, and a model trained on the old regime is systematically
overconfident about the new one.

**BreakEven didn't change what makes a proposal good. It changed how good a
proposal has to be.**

## Verify it

- Model: https://huggingface.co/gramajo/nouns-proposal-predictor
- Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/gramajo/nouns-proposals
- Exact split IDs + raw metrics: `splits.json` / `results.json` in the model repo

Trust but verify. Open a discussion if you find a flaw.