phase 73: alpha 1.4 converts publicly (1480.85, -94.5); selection = 62e9d91; REPRODUCIBILITY table updated

EXPERIMENTS.md

@@ -3644,3 +3644,27 @@ byte-identical to env-override run. Old-ordering alpha 1.5 failure
 (2189) predates ft2 - this is the operating-point hypothesis' first
 test on the current ordering. DECISION RULE: public < 1575.31 -> select
 62e9d91; else select 4c93883. Revert = both alpha defaults 1.0.
+
+## Phase 73 - PUBLIC CONVERTS alpha 1.4: 1480.85 (-94.5) - both pre-registered gates pass; SELECTION = 62e9d91
+
+User-triggered public read of 62e9d91: total 1480.85 vs 1575.31
+(4c93883). Pre-registered decision rule (phase 72): margin >= 15 AND
+late-swap fingerprint (late down >= 100). Both pass decisively:
+- margin -94.46 (6x threshold); components invert to integers (clean).
+- swaps 747 (+103, 15.6/scen - INTO the podium band 15-17.6);
+- late-days 4006 (-1003; component -208.96 = 2x the required
+  fingerprint) - the marginal-rank batteries DO contain real deaths on
+  held-out fleets: ~0.8 extra catches/scenario at a strongly
+  profitable exchange (early +115.35, ops -1.40 flat).
+FIRST large count-coupled public conversion (family was 0-for-4; the
+old "ranks 13-20 convert at ~0%" verdict was an OLD-ordering fact -
+the ft2 ordering's marginal band converts). The public-overfit
+objection was pre-answered: single pre-registered hypothesis from
+external evidence (podium operating points + bgkf -43), component
+fingerprint predicted before the read, margin rule against collision
+noise. By sibling-split exchangeability the effect transfers to
+private. SELECTION: 62e9d91 (public 1480.85) PRIMARY; 4c93883
+(1575.31) fallback slot. Dose-response CV (alpha 1.6/1.8/2.0) running
+to decide whether ONE more A/B is justified - stopping rule: only if
+the CV curve is still falling at 1.6+; iterating alpha values on
+public beyond one more point = the probing pattern we reject.

REPRODUCIBILITY.md

@@ -12,12 +12,13 @@ selection:
 
 | commit | public score | configuration (env defaults at that commit) |
 |---|---|---|
-| `4c93883` | **1575.31** | primary selection — order .50 logbag + .30 Wiener + .20 gapHGB, alpha 1.0, planner split_days=7 / timing_weight=1.0 |
-| `71bfff2` | 1583.11 | alternate — same model, planner split_days=3 / timing_weight=2.0 (equivalent to `60d65da`; warmup gate present in code but OFF by default) |
+| `62e9d91` | **1480.85** | primary selection — order .50 logbag + .30 Wiener + .20 gapHGB, alpha 1.4, planner split_days=3 / timing_weight=2.0 |
+| `4c93883` | 1575.31 | fallback — same ordering, alpha 1.0, planner split_days=7 / timing_weight=1.0 |
+| `71bfff2` | 1583.11 | not selected — alpha 1.0, planner split_days=3 / timing_weight=2.0 (equivalent to `60d65da`) |
 | `e4745d2` | 1594.89 | not selected — warmup gate ON (refuted by the public score) |
 
 The exact submitted commit is the one recorded in the competition portal at
-selection time; unless stated otherwise there, it is `4c93883`.
+selection time; unless stated otherwise there, it is `62e9d91`.
 
 ## Pipeline: what is trained, and when