Dashboard Glossary (AI vs Bookmakers)
This glossary defines UI terms used on the OddsFlow dashboard.
For log/schema field definitions (timestamp, match_id, market enums), see:
docs/signal-glossary.md.
Educational analytics only — not betting advice.
Market
Meaning: Market-implied probability derived from bookmaker pricing (odds/lines).
Intuition: “What the market is pricing.”
Model
Meaning: AI-estimated probability based on data/modeling.
Intuition: “What the model believes.”
Implied
Meaning (in Trend cards): the market’s expected rate for an outcome category.
Intuition: “The market forecast.”
Actual
Meaning (in Trend cards): the observed rate in a recent sample window.
Intuition: “What really happened.”
Deviation
Meaning: the difference between Actual and Implied.
- Positive → happening more often than priced
- Negative → happening less often than priced
Intuition: “Forecast error.”
Market Volatility (as displayed)
Meaning: a measured drift indicator between market expectations and outcomes (via deviation).
Intuition: “How far reality is drifting from the priced script.”
Home Advantage
Meaning: whether home teams are performing stronger/weaker than typical assumptions.
Intuition: “Is home actually home right now?”
awayLean
Meaning: drift indicator suggesting away outcomes are outperforming or underperforming market assumptions in the sample window.
Intuition: “Is the league leaning away right now?”
Edge
Meaning: meaningful disagreement between Model and Market, beyond a threshold.
Intuition: “The gap worth reviewing.”
Threshold (Edge Threshold)
Meaning: minimum edge size required before an item becomes a shortlist candidate.
Intuition: “Ignore tiny gaps.”
Value Detection
Meaning: module that scans matches and returns a filtered shortlist of edge candidates.
Intuition: “Shortlist builder.”
Edge Found
Meaning: number of shortlist candidates discovered for the selected league/window.
Intuition: “How many disagreements passed the bar.”
Filtered
Meaning: candidates remaining after applying filters/constraints.
Intuition: “How many survived filtering.”
Efficiency
Meaning: quality indicator for the current filtered set (implementation-specific).
Intuition: “How clean the shortlist is.”
Sample Window
Meaning: the match sample used to compute Actual/Deviation metrics.
Intuition: “The timeframe behind league weather.”