id stringlengths 9 20 | market_slug stringlengths 5 54 | question stringlengths 10 193 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,641B 1,735B | closeTime int64 1,704B 1,736B | resolvedTime int64 1,727B 1,736B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 ⌀ | volume float64 1k 3.75M | pred_category stringclasses 11 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 38 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
clOkd1NrKzQN5guM9nLj | will-jjk-end-in-2024 | Will JJK end in 2024? | null | 1,715,843,990,645 | 1,727,933,135,591 | 1,727,933,135,591 | YES | 0.92 | 1,363.089927 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
4cMRGJSfzZMbVrllzLLS | who-will-be-elected-to-be-us-presid | Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | null | 1,685,917,894,139 | 1,730,793,600,000 | 1,730,990,536,186 | NO | 0.023952 | 27,453.876856 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
X0vFQqL0UGAp3TMe10LE | will-caltrain-electrification-finis-293a770aaf8c | Will Caltrain electrification finish by end of 2025? | null | 1,674,096,108,249 | 1,734,970,297,482 | 1,734,970,297,482 | YES | 0.980993 | 8,135.560534 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
kjxaa7tdrr | will-any-world-leaders-be-assassina | Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,620,420,715 | 1,735,672,436,685 | 1,735,672,436,685 | NO | 0.037062 | 10,722.333923 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
qXu1vRB5aeYAgquhqhzr | 10-us-court-rule-that-generative-ai | 10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated] | null | 1,703,511,788,704 | 1,734,453,573,314 | 1,734,453,573,314 | NO | 0.010037 | 11,062.297784 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
zU8S84gXnb5p7ABiJOal | will-any-hamas-terrorists-be-arrest | Will any Hamas terrorists be arrested in the US in the next year? (Oct 8th, 2024) | null | 1,697,138,447,313 | 1,729,058,340,000 | 1,729,083,918,668 | NO | 0.01 | 9,342.381742 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
I1GaMjmrugPnE9kVD8QG | nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-los | NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Los Angeles Rams (home) beat the Buffalo Bills (away)? | null | 1,715,834,532,721 | 1,733,865,900,000 | 1,735,276,188,910 | YES | 0.99 | 1,282.227913 | Sports | Professional Sports |
pYf3hMhhYYvAFqmwoVUR | will-september-2024-be-the-hottest | Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record in the US? | null | 1,705,193,289,758 | 1,727,909,940,000 | 1,728,183,952,762 | NO | 0.01 | 1,647.267632 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
nlejlk23ms | will-the-milwaukee-brewers-play-in | Will the Milwaukee Brewers play in the 2024 World Series? | null | 1,721,837,570,769 | 1,728,045,764,092 | 1,728,045,764,092 | NO | 0.01 | 10,726.8826 | Sports | Professional Sports |
I9tnLctSdO | will-polymarket-a-volume-of-4-billi | Will Polymarket have a total volume of $4 billion on US 2024 elections? | null | 1,730,813,255,986 | 1,730,917,302,076 | 1,730,917,302,076 | NO | 0.086694 | 6,804.255967 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
v9L9JJ2Ph5dzmS4brDrH | have-they-found-amelia-earharts-pla | Have they found Amelia Earhart's plane? | null | 1,706,647,745,065 | 1,730,827,211,759 | 1,730,827,211,759 | NO | 0.01 | 10,254.887928 | Sports | Individual Sports |
HD0dOwjnrmu6c8UZWdUL | is-the-firing-of-sam-altman-and-the | Is the firing of Sam Altman and the current situation at OpenAI mainly a consequence of an internal breakthrough? | null | 1,700,447,173,083 | 1,732,078,740,000 | 1,734,818,192,444 | NO | 0.062343 | 3,960.311539 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
mslWqzdpHHBdQzetdotS | at-the-end-of-2024-will-the-most-us-2258f168d2da | At the end of 2024 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic) | null | 1,705,677,151,376 | 1,735,671,197,054 | 1,735,671,197,054 | NO | 0.017662 | 9,576.490825 | Entertainment | Gaming |
KLdcg1uSFALrUxcnVLNk | will-the-myanmar-junta-relinquish-p | Will the Myanmar junta relinquish power before October 2024? | null | 1,696,244,958,482 | 1,727,779,239,812 | 1,727,779,239,812 | NO | 0.01 | 1,547.860364 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
J4tzFfTgsGSSQxrCT75N | will-reddit-dip-below-their-ipo-pri | Will Reddit dip below their IPO price of $34 before October 2024? | null | 1,711,070,594,482 | 1,727,704,740,000 | 1,728,807,703,698 | NO | 0.01 | 2,017.089097 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
rzgmsexsra | will-doug-emhoff-be-a-guest-on-the | Will Doug Emhoff be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024? | null | 1,725,512,819,523 | 1,730,805,525,542 | 1,730,805,525,542 | NO | 0.010012 | 1,042.809388 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB | f1-2024-will-lewis-hamilton-finish | F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC? | null | 1,709,117,875,090 | 1,733,728,447,316 | 1,733,728,447,316 | NO | 0.01 | 3,328.556971 | Sports | Individual Sports |
wu0mzxhtjz | will-hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-be | Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery? | null | 1,726,766,779,985 | 1,728,313,199,116 | 1,728,313,199,116 | YES | 0.99 | 12,771.368895 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
8h90olm50r | will-pavel-durov-be-forced-to-spend | Will Pavel Durov be Forced to spend Christmas in France? | null | 1,724,883,661,574 | 1,735,134,418,759 | 1,735,134,418,759 | YES | 0.982844 | 8,678.201596 | Politics | International Relations |
dk6ppdpyj3 | will-macron-give-a-speech-inside-th | Will Macron give a speech inside the Notre Dame cathedral during its re-opening? | null | 1,727,116,340,395 | 1,733,606,851,588 | 1,733,606,851,588 | YES | 0.988607 | 1,167 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
K1qxS49ebDtSbSkzuZn0 | will-kizaru-awaken-his-devil-fruit | WILL Kizaru Awaken His Devil Fruit On Egghead? | null | 1,708,041,822,651 | 1,719,806,340,000 | 1,732,315,487,297 | NO | 0.174443 | 7,279.077983 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
1u8gdhl386 | will-trump-win-nevada-in-the-2024-p | Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,727,304,276,433 | 1,731,050,197,326 | 1,731,050,197,326 | YES | 0.990366 | 357,999.961514 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
9oc0wz833r | will-manifold-have-10000-twitterx-f | Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)? | null | 1,724,257,306,953 | 1,730,825,262,762 | 1,730,825,262,762 | NO | 0.017195 | 54,615.383847 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
2i4y8488ez | will-trump-win-arizona-in-the-2024 | Will Trump win Arizona in the 2024 Presidential Election? | null | 1,727,304,119,385 | 1,731,050,482,430 | 1,731,050,482,430 | YES | 0.993746 | 409,898.625694 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qhzQgRgnNt | will-political-markets-stop-dominat | Will political markets stop dominating Manifold by next month. | null | 1,731,276,165,674 | 1,734,533,565,210 | 1,734,533,565,210 | YES | 0.367661 | 1,824.084717 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
miyw2eiqvt | will-ukraine-take-control-of-the-ku-a5cxqghsz7 | Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month? | null | 1,725,296,647,237 | 1,727,733,540,000 | 1,727,734,562,817 | NO | 0.01 | 156,027.793186 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
NZuLqNqURy | daily-coinflip-6ZpnqAC6PP | Daily coinflip | null | 1,730,696,863,606 | 1,730,869,140,000 | 1,730,875,725,312 | NO | 0.51 | 10,483.257889 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
ZcDnZfa89rPcY4eOiPck | will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-804816d5e30f | Will a Republican win Pennsylvania in the 2024 POTUS election? | null | 1,686,273,470,977 | 1,730,902,425,248 | 1,730,902,425,248 | YES | 0.99 | 2,519.321774 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
IhHxbCxzWHD1cFU4GmD9 | will-a-test-subject-die-at-neuralli | Will a test subject die at Neurallink in 2024? | null | 1,709,304,324,448 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,686,300,092 | NO | 0.056718 | 3,502.637805 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
4XLAG4riFXclnnqxAXG7 | bayern-munich-202425-to-win-any-dom | Bayern Munich 2024/25: to win any Domestic Cup, any European Cup, and any player with ≥41 Bundesliga goals | null | 1,716,025,643,841 | 1,735,233,113,914 | 1,735,233,113,914 | NO | 0.034707 | 4,502 | Sports | Professional Sports |
6n2t81eboi | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-hw1zsn3fzy | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1128 and 1129? | null | 1,726,522,330,973 | 1,727,813,833,520 | 1,727,813,836,521 | NO | 0.03 | 4,759 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
pabt9g6gtk | will-donald-trump-drop-out-of-the-p-f6ek0sgypv | Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ? | null | 1,723,067,604,330 | 1,730,850,482,746 | 1,730,850,482,746 | NO | 0.008912 | 123,238.790106 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
bKXOSz6PnXjngfP3fsVe | will-jimmy-carter-outlive-manifold | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Manifold Markets? | null | 1,713,931,936,979 | 1,735,516,255,997 | 1,735,516,255,997 | NO | 0.011139 | 10,738.406811 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
U0z2ry6EaEsTZLvZ6qqf | will-this-tweet-hold-up-sora-will-s | will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with Sony Pictures | null | 1,710,207,299,593 | 1,733,794,089,070 | 1,733,794,089,070 | NO | 0.063995 | 1,182.551765 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
Q2c0EZhg25 | daily-coinflip-ESsZuhPCcZ | Daily coinflip | null | 1,731,296,466,506 | 1,731,385,800,000 | 1,731,418,176,695 | YES | 0.506443 | 4,782.635363 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
qg9lv8ljb0 | will-kamala-harriss-highest-polling | Will Kamala Harris's highest polling this election cycle occur during or just after the Democratic National Convention? | null | 1,722,101,136,992 | 1,724,137,140,000 | 1,730,787,980,854 | YES | 0.353282 | 3,518.524192 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1n1yFBEOk5JmsB3MC9Gw | will-israel-attack-at-least-one-of | Will Israel attack at least one of Iran's nuclear facilities by year-end 2024? | null | 1,713,143,415,237 | 1,732,105,786,080 | 1,732,105,786,080 | YES | 0.85796 | 50,775.017788 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
00BD9JD5ZG3MjzfqHsux | is-the-lean-kernel-unsound | Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker? | null | 1,695,821,239,702 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,735,686,112,247 | NO | 0.088639 | 7,306.25493 | Technology | Computing & Software |
mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65 | will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e | Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Oct 2024? | null | 1,705,843,818,735 | 1,728,202,753,714 | 1,728,202,753,714 | NO | 0.01 | 6,741.054985 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
t6RsIIsLcO | will-this-market-close-above-60-chh9A6E58I | Will this market close above 60% | null | 1,732,405,497,266 | 1,733,093,940,000 | 1,733,094,095,018 | YES | 0.985338 | 1,031.055355 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
evNABatwCVTSYGv14z3Y | will-vladimir-putin-be-alive-on-dec | Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024? | null | 1,689,336,696,149 | 1,734,847,200,000 | 1,734,904,012,639 | YES | 0.99 | 102,074.634271 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
ePI08ks2TDkVbxJ02IHl | shrek-5-releases-in-2024 | Shrek 5 releases in 2024 | null | 1,705,681,163,236 | 1,735,640,809,321 | 1,735,640,809,321 | NO | 0.01 | 1,337.819898 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
FLtHUn96T71ZPqDTpBGf | will-the-total-market-capitalizatio | Will the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies exceed $3 trillion USD by the end of 2024? | null | 1,697,914,446,986 | 1,734,390,999,602 | 1,734,390,999,602 | YES | 0.952589 | 1,482.665839 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
LEhn8Itu50 | will-openai-launch-or-announce-some | Will OpenAI launch or announce something new on ChatGPT’s anniversary tomorrow? | null | 1,732,899,783,286 | 1,733,058,399,646 | 1,733,058,399,646 | NO | 0.044174 | 10,090.241449 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
0j3PFTOngtJcz2uxQmpX | will-any-manifold-user-withdraw-at | Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1,000 from Manifold "sweepcash" in 2024? | null | 1,713,931,650,595 | 1,729,225,742,935 | 1,729,225,742,935 | YES | 0.99 | 41,736.669697 | Finance | Personal Finance |
o6fnOS2MFC4pi7OECcq6 | will-republicans-win-the-senate-in | Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections? | null | 1,670,516,629,852 | 1,730,946,807,565 | 1,730,946,807,565 | YES | 0.99 | 18,260.366172 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
I4Grr89G1OO9lNSULQpU | will-any-us-senate-election-in-2024 | Will any U.S. Senate election in 2024 be decided by less than 1%? | null | 1,689,382,476,245 | 1,732,943,309,074 | 1,732,943,309,074 | YES | 0.99 | 13,024.93013 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
delgzszzkG4IsoEFNxCD | nfl-week-9-nov-3-2024-will-the-seat | NFL Week 9 (Nov 3 2024): Will the Seattle Seahawks (home) beat the Los Angeles Rams (away)? | null | 1,715,834,191,878 | 1,730,836,319,804 | 1,730,836,319,804 | NO | 0.011881 | 1,367.128352 | Sports | Professional Sports |
vgguj7ayip | will-the-israelis-bomb-iran-before | Will the Israelis bomb Iran before 2025? | null | 1,727,701,567,343 | 1,729,935,930,930 | 1,729,935,930,930 | YES | 0.99 | 17,558.516747 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
UitJbJIPmkakW2hLgTFP | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-us-sen-acee7113d48b | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US Senate election in Montana? | null | 1,670,677,349,540 | 1,730,913,909,275 | 1,730,913,909,275 | NO | 0.026476 | 75,397.302536 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
TRJ3UVJ9lYEphPys4Q8C | will-i-play-at-least-50-fiderated-c | Will I play at least 50 FIDE-rated classical games this year? | null | 1,707,851,685,680 | 1,730,264,387,286 | 1,730,264,387,286 | NO | 0.451201 | 1,073.748399 | Sports | Individual Sports |
c3pg77npaq | will-netflix-reverse-its-illadvised | Will Netflix reverse its ill-advised decision to cast Lera Abova in One Piece? | null | 1,726,999,787,548 | 1,732,624,134,580 | 1,732,624,134,580 | NO | 0.042072 | 4,599.090487 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
j57kg99wed | will-wimipa-all-be-won-by-the-same | Will WI/MI/PA all be won by the same candidate? | null | 1,718,601,081,326 | 1,731,218,340,000 | 1,731,295,614,355 | YES | 0.99 | 1,556.400692 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
VydVZH2qxHWEr6cdL8BA | will-a-democrat-win-the-2024-presid-6d04e99d80fa | Will a democrat win the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina? | null | 1,670,815,269,432 | 1,731,292,946,889 | 1,731,292,946,889 | NO | 0.009742 | 17,598.172261 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
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