id
stringlengths
9
20
slug
stringlengths
4
54
question
stringlengths
1
120
firstGroup
float64
createdTime
int64
1,715B
1,752B
closeTime
int64
1,717B
1,752B
resolvedTime
int64
1,736B
1,752B
resolution
stringclasses
2 values
resolutionProbability
float64
0
1
volume
float64
0
6.93M
1CGRvHYDe1qCPRRbtlCl
will-trumps-favorability-increase-a
Will Trump’s favorability increase after sentencing?
null
1,718,150,307,307
1,727,765,940,000
1,735,745,375,324
NO
0.095108
1,094.423405
6A4WSR1uHamWMs4lp7xQ
will-i-solve-my-photo-bug-in-no-man
Will i solve my photo bug in No Man's Sky by 2025?
null
1,718,148,776,611
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,743,239,381
NO
0.425105
46.401506
0fVmzBDbjIAzUj0Z8A7l
will-nobodys-on-the-ball-on-agi-ali
Will "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,718,148,453,195
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,426,834
NO
0.148272
10
6qSDHpqU8H2i8r2ZvMts
will-media-coverage-about-manifest
Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups?
null
1,718,147,843,458
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,771,301,614
NO
0.032981
64,512.878938
Dyvz7deMUtsHHx6jQ1tX
will-scotus-hear-the-florida-trans
Will SCOTUS hear the Florida trans kids case after federal judge strikes down 2023 Florida law?
null
1,718,144,118,920
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,955,617,612
NO
0.031717
4,552
HLGV8vgMIQEB4UKKVyPv
will-there-be-at-least-10-tesla-opt
Will there be at least 10 Tesla Optimus perfuming tasks autonomously at a Tesla factory by the end of 2024?
null
1,718,140,145,662
1,735,707,540,000
1,742,961,058,246
NO
0.106994
538
MDUZyFlHOCiAA3E7ITiI
will-president-biden-release-by-dec
Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination?
null
1,718,139,397,695
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,912,025,941
NO
0.018701
77,999.900855
dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x
will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d
Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds?
null
1,718,132,110,600
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,721,148,645
NO
0.011064
142,245.746906
NOeu4K7Iwmb3STSJFkii
will-hunter-biden-serve-any-prison
Will Hunter Biden serve any prison time for any of the 3 charges he was found guilty for?
null
1,718,131,809,645
1,735,707,540,000
1,738,396,351,931
NO
0.010983
15,468.442903
suJZXabJMU8b3huF4s1a
-will-i-organize-another-cuddle-pud
🤗 Will I organize another cuddle puddle in SF Bay Area?
null
1,718,121,304,915
1,727,765,940,000
1,748,833,615,211
NO
0.465165
2,516.842991
T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M
will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next
Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)?
null
1,718,114,847,917
1,740,382,977,223
1,740,382,977,223
NO
0.01
29,690.369572
jMoRpMwL4DISuwcGjIPK
will-egypt-open-the-rafah-crossing
Will Egypt open the Rafah crossing in 2024?
null
1,718,096,167,576
1,735,682,340,000
1,749,253,920,061
NO
0.05801
356
3w6SzgyB3OElQbKHNg7l
will-elons-grok-phone-be-announced
Will Elon's "Grok phone" be announced in 2024?
null
1,718,095,765,034
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,955,580,573
NO
0.016893
7,797.153363
oqW3CxOE77WBMtXhiYrk
will-what-are-the-results-of-more-p
Will "What are the results of more parental supervi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,718,093,297,118
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,303,812,252
NO
0.133368
50
myIsMoHMLg4FRNYuquXv
will-i-go-on-a-third-date-with-j
Will I go on a third date with J****?
null
1,718,089,207,237
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,790,369,179
NO
0.174738
161.471279
5NKwwyvKAGR7321V888r
will-stochasticparrot-attend-a-mani
Will @StochasticParrot attend a Manifest in 2025?
null
1,718,083,403,323
1,749,309,636,936
1,749,309,636,936
YES
0.99
9,341.487741
pHH28qPbziDOi9UltU2L
will-rationality-winning-make-the-t
Will "Rationality !== Winning" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,718,068,814,640
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,363,872
NO
0.165402
32
wCpBQF8erLRrEkNiZoPt
will-mr-basil-survive-2024
Will Mr. Basil survive 2024?
null
1,718,053,193,555
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,732,902,534
YES
0.956869
6,784.210812
BmYt7Hq9Krlm5vv096S4
will-manifest-2025-have-someone-mor
Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver, according to YouGov?
null
1,718,043,933,981
1,749,492,248,520
1,749,492,248,520
NO
0.053204
4,020.801877
cW3myaGrHHp8CFoIKbfS
will-voter-turnout-in-the-2024-pres-dvw9ec5fvk
Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%?
null
1,718,035,227,785
1,735,704,420,000
1,735,772,515,057
NO
0.010061
27,429.584376
6zOcnTq3aXWMItQAhOMM
will-florida-power-light-company-fp
Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024?
null
1,718,009,559,841
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,963,015,436
NO
0.041934
38,528.881412
av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b
will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti
Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025?
null
1,718,001,258,281
1,748,599,843,783
1,748,599,843,783
YES
0.989913
12,735.023195
DLUwpsv8BmaLuz0LCsYH
will-manifest-2025-be-hosted-at-lig
Will Manifest 2025 be hosted at Lighthaven?
null
1,717,983,518,093
1,750,177,729,588
1,750,177,729,588
YES
0.990692
12,283.689524
7ZPAWBfmAEVtmSU1b0sC
will-manifold-help-me-pivot-my-care
Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,959,607,998
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,932,329,223
NO
0.440678
13,801.12202
jF9buA1Zq52N2O0QkV0P
will-talking-publicly-about-ai-risk
Will "Talking publicly about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,951,961,569
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,415,124
NO
0.206915
85
eSk4MX67MIHzkK84Rpfd
will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-make-i
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make it to the NHL playoffs in the 2025 season?
null
1,717,951,242,413
1,744,044,056,786
1,744,044,056,786
YES
0.989372
10,349.653782
4uLirf8bawE6H5jj6vWh
will-there-be-a-session-about-cool
Will there be a session about "Cool Poker" / "Poker 2" / "RPS Poker" at a Manifest held in 2025?
null
1,717,925,043,320
1,749,492,411,781
1,749,492,411,781
YES
0.953359
6,403.287336
TIbZx4Kd88oaEP7CuuFG
will-shuko-be-banned-in-modern-in-2
Will Shuko be banned in Modern in 2024?
null
1,717,900,142,284
1,735,721,196,987
1,735,721,196,987
NO
0.011294
18,842.59853
xPQK1xUe6sObiKdmWcP9
will-touch-reality-as-soon-as-possi
Will "Touch reality as soon as possible (when doing..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,897,477,736
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,305,350,401
NO
0.127181
100
7qD4WONyQgXNQbCGVBBm
will-graphical-tensor-notation-for
Will "Graphical tensor notation for interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,887,121,258
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,105,874
NO
0.139033
7
NdKIxJP74QVtXHrPDPvi
will-advice-for-newly-busy-people-m
Will "Advice for newly busy people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,877,518,515
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,972,412
NO
0.148272
10
hIylc25DMj3bJ2V1fPo9
will-english-wikipedia-have-more-pa
Will English Wikipedia have more page views in 2024 than in 2023?
null
1,717,865,304,948
1,736,422,173,802
1,736,422,173,802
YES
0.979834
634
v6UUopLRUlNTnxyqxLMa
will-i-weigh-under-200-lbs-on-20241
Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week)
null
1,717,860,014,997
1,735,624,740,000
1,735,750,128,684
NO
0.246671
6,383.047021
NTjr8ptihEhvnRhFLDtM
russia-detonates-nuclear-weapon-for
Russia detonates nuclear weapon for any purpose before EOY 2024?
null
1,717,842,075,564
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,940,383,428
NO
0.077101
8,905.762762
8sE6Ygpgso4vhqfYqons
will-the-esquire-theatre-in-denver
Will the Esquire Theatre in Denver, Colorado, be operational as a theatre in 2025?
null
1,717,833,013,959
1,735,766,150,221
1,735,766,150,221
NO
0.02676
5,075
gvExxWwTMhpbNsuDMxq0
will-there-be-a-2nd-summer-camp-hel
Will there be a 2nd summer camp held in 2025?
null
1,717,827,152,641
1,750,177,665,597
1,750,177,665,597
YES
0.990664
10,503.804653
XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3
will-jailbreaks-in-large-language-m
Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,815,518,482
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,786,497,141
NO
0.059405
17,408.998258
yUJuoDdGQqnKY8SuBY8G
will-us-skiersnowboarder-visits-for
Will US skier/snowboarder visits for the 2024-25 season rank #1 on record?
null
1,717,815,279,916
1,746,935,940,000
1,747,101,081,602
NO
0.13
160.538228
U70x3czGMacth3AnlCXl
will-spaces-timecube-ad-lead-to-1-m
Will Space’s timecube ad lead to >1 month of attic stay?
null
1,717,809,330,636
1,735,718,340,000
1,738,190,569,244
NO
0.033589
47,501.778192
wC5Lg83E3Xh7Qx7ymqnv
will-tao-be-severely-injured-in-a-e
Will Tao be severely injured in a electric unicycle accident in 2024?
null
1,717,787,319,963
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,844,431,470
NO
0.023086
42,274.424215
z7mgQBkt0PD7HvsaKQHv
will-dont-accelerate-problems-youre
Will "Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,742,957,700
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,305,508,770
NO
0.133368
50
SrGP9xpqDthvioIdFgfG
will-the-salt-in-pasta-water-fallac
Will "The salt in pasta water fallacy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,725,468,630
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,303,809,879
NO
0.166692
31
NTzDIAxDpvua30AlsBII
will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr
Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,708,809,692
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,849,325,407
NO
0.028446
66,712.254412
yICG9wEfnAf8vLqJKwIb
will-there-be-a-3rd-manifest-confer
Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025?
null
1,717,708,793,922
1,749,328,578,808
1,749,328,578,808
YES
0.990917
18,865.343588
XX8qvcvm5WlajOApFPje
will-the-wayward-realms-be-released
Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2024?
null
1,717,689,848,406
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,757,996,315
NO
0.027169
4,995
GX6ddmamuRUYjlqcAH0u
will-21e8-ltd-ship-any-product-by-j
Will 21e8, Ltd, ship any product by June 5, 2025?
null
1,717,677,898,662
1,749,178,740,000
1,749,316,503,275
NO
0.01
956.403085
Do3JB4Xnd87AlCz1JxjE
will-alphatom-reach-2100-elo-in-bul
Will AlphaTom reach 2100 ELO in Bullet by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,664,653,430
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,761,157,346
NO
0.064751
4,954.852244
HnI2lD13dLdOqVA3DodD
will-a-new-antitrust-case-be-filed
Will a new antitrust case be filed against Nvidia, OpenAI, or Microsoft in 2024?
null
1,717,646,692,989
1,735,718,340,000
1,738,315,447,458
NO
0.040092
441.932681
62cWs0IOTjXhxxAgyWY5
will-there-be-more-than-10-laborato
Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,629,275,593
1,735,718,340,000
1,737,046,469,932
NO
0.011954
19,299.11715
tt0FV4CT0ZezBTY9MgE7
will-billy-mitchell-win-his-defamat
Will Billy Mitchell win his defamation lawsuit against Karl Jobst?
null
1,717,620,897,624
1,743,458,340,000
1,746,089,918,002
YES
0.11361
2,014.497964
89HIf4XwwImkvKwrLftv
will-ben-johnson-be-an-nfl-head-coa-04h5h3xwua
Will Ben Johnson be an NFL Head Coach by April 1, 2025?
null
1,717,600,595,433
1,737,515,831,908
1,737,515,831,908
YES
0.99
1,703.844882
578rXY73kUWeBcZOvsts
will-tetra-make-an-alignmentfocused
Will Tetra make an alignment-focused LessWrong post that she is proud of by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,598,704,599
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,701,243,106
NO
0.151452
3,570.662901
crd1bQkWUcBknXsq7iWt
will-manifold-have-a-team-in-any-es
Will Manifold have a team in any esport by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,585,346,980
1,735,685,940,000
1,735,862,164,532
NO
0.01
947.229899
Vp2k38UCpyelOHBD98jM
will-the-navigation-fund-have-a-gra-ik7k4gvtx7
Will the Navigation Fund have a grant report on the level of individual grants by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,580,987,488
1,735,689,540,000
1,739,599,156,139
NO
0.301613
564
xjaaeG5JstFIvD7COfWu
will-a-skies-of-arcadia-remasterrem
Will a Skies of Arcadia remaster/remake be officially announced in 2024?
null
1,717,580,625,762
1,735,685,940,000
1,736,330,824,902
NO
0.01
8,967.236027
67dal14KSC585YKMWiQM
will-seti-receive-a-radio-transmiss
Will SETI receive a radio transmission that is unambiguously from another world by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,572,240,332
1,735,707,540,000
1,747,686,151,982
NO
0.012552
1,650.676236
JF9FB5gzkERemNqT6bUV
will-i-fix-it-so-people-can-login-t
Will I fix it so people can login to my game, LogicBox, by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,542,880,165
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,849,345,164
NO
0.45
142.747525
hYFBkOLFRjntyshQsHfR
will-mexican-president-claudia-shei
Will Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum deploy the military against the Cartels?
null
1,717,538,967,515
1,738,914,031,696
1,738,914,031,696
YES
0.680029
734
bIXcZaAbAzgVhPJhDINl
will-someone-break-the-singleseason
Will someone break the single-season sack record in 2024?
null
1,717,523,137,203
1,736,398,740,000
1,736,426,742,983
NO
0.01
19,321.906685
Gk4gN5eRPxPJGGYliMyC
will-solana-become-a-top-3-cryptocu
Will Solana become a top 3 cryptocurrency by market cap before EOY?
null
1,717,509,834,196
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,708,940,920
NO
0.035287
10,092.928601
WV5CbKGA4tU8TW2jQUTd
will-preventing-language-models-fro
Will "Preventing Language Models from hiding their ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,501,577,563
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,600,218
NO
0.133368
50
4MaN1A1DglFSA4tKkgm0
will-there-be-a-usd-1-billion-or-mo
Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG)
null
1,717,497,536,668
1,735,685,940,000
1,736,190,768,026
YES
0.828168
739.681037
NU72Pp11lFbFyVFrmHvk
will-new-york-state-bill-to-regulat
Will New York State bill to "regulate social media algorithms for children" be implemented in 2024?
null
1,717,477,058,228
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,955,633,898
NO
0.035582
5,813.015486
mOqFZlHoExvqnRbK2kyQ
will-anthropic-employ-scott-aaronso
Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025?
null
1,717,438,417,327
1,742,626,740,000
1,742,836,181,516
NO
0.010105
10,166.793561
pa3xHsEglqfISlMy60am
will-real-madrid-make-it-to-the-202
Will Real Madrid make it to the 2024/25 Champions League Final?
null
1,717,419,390,364
1,745,437,332,588
1,745,437,332,588
NO
0.010023
16,007.013859
wY88KFhWNCCApxp2PYYx
will-from-fear-to-excitement-make-t
Will "From fear to excitement" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,415,063,010
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,098,081
NO
0.16
22.232197
QgCzaxnuQCVTt7xmCt06
will-the-cvs-on-telegraph-avenue-st
Will the CVS across from Lighthaven stay open for another year?
null
1,717,386,837,754
1,749,538,740,000
1,749,632,039,214
YES
0.99
9,040.276387
IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz
will-udeepfuckingvalue-roaring-kitt
Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024?
null
1,717,386,307,093
1,735,660,740,000
1,735,701,115,573
NO
0.01
46,313.58195
2u7mheCfcIMuvZPT7I4B
will-the-navigation-fund-have-a-gra
Will the Navigation Fund have a grant report at the level of funds granted by cause area by the end of 2024?
null
1,717,341,258,586
1,735,689,540,000
1,739,599,158,716
NO
0.330847
570
kxd456bpIMfxIIvvAwdx
will-cybertruck-2025-receive-a-full
Will Cybertruck 2025 receive a full five star safety rating?
null
1,717,335,852,898
1,739,921,639,801
1,739,921,639,801
NO
0.01
13,218.963997
iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4
will-the-nintendo-switch-2-have-the
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch?
null
1,717,279,070,339
1,737,043,598,767
1,737,043,598,767
YES
0.989646
11,794.733155
MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix
will-china-blockade-taiwan-between
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
null
1,717,248,616,842
1,737,435,540,000
1,737,893,019,102
NO
0.01
9,719.293571
p3TJSmcHOFMMakD7HyPS
will-the-idf-relinquish-control-of
Will the IDF relinquish control of the Philadelphi corridor before the end of 2024?
null
1,717,224,209,196
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,709,762,866
NO
0.020864
5,966
GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG
will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi
Will Snapchat sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024?
null
1,717,192,336,706
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,963,126,602
NO
0.095022
2,719.135988
1EasGxrjHn4FZI6DptrN
will-mal-abdallah-be-diagnosed-with
Will Mal Abdalla be diagnosed with autism by EOY 2025?
null
1,717,192,077,311
1,741,323,832,918
1,741,323,832,918
YES
0.619274
310
feMCq34j29brsNpxBsIc
given-the-recent-allegations-about
Given the recent allegations about Gala Games, will its GALA token end 2024 higher than the current price of $0.04289
null
1,717,183,435,694
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,852,008,837
NO
0.054383
6,868.128446
QAlWiKWrorzm0JV5lldO
will-there-be-a-public-photo-of-tru
Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024?
null
1,717,180,419,621
1,735,707,540,000
1,739,774,007,383
NO
0.046688
4,782.831022
mlUOpWwlwfxLlldEzbn2
sidder-nicolai-dyhr-i-fngsel-inden
Sidder Nicolai Dyhr i fængsel inden udgangen af 2024?
null
1,717,179,693,013
1,735,685,940,000
1,736,576,714,723
NO
0.1
2,000
y4hNixQSf3WLAeK1dcH9
will-x-meta-snapchat-instagram-yout
Will X, Meta, Snapchat, instagram, YouTube, twitch or TikTok ANNOUNCE a name change before the end of Q2 2025?
null
1,717,176,032,319
1,751,428,740,000
1,751,918,716,669
NO
0.01
21,253.383906
zutDEtzXJq9pvcrSsRgd
will-someone-die-from-or-with-h5n1
Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?
null
1,717,176,004,752
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,955,594,675
NO
0.032264
75,034.788437
IBezIpRUNmysXIRjHPaL
will-slack-sign-a-partnership-with
Will Slack sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024?
null
1,717,168,149,255
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,953,436,819
NO
0.150083
1,607
sXzllzL6HNXTngxd1C58
will-a-french-soldier-in-ukraine-be
Will a French soldier in Ukraine be killed by Russia before the end of 2024?
null
1,717,165,643,387
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,775,053,177
NO
0.03492
9,708.540657
AYWXj8IQ68wHX68V77qX
will-a-rocket-league-bot-team-of-3
Will a Rocket League bot team (of 3 car) beat a team of 3 professional human players in a typical series in 2024?
null
1,717,149,547,889
1,735,718,340,000
1,735,783,498,532
NO
0.416066
987.465837
eQTedEJqkPFm92YesSx2
will-discord-sign-a-partnership-wit
Will Discord sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024?
null
1,717,122,910,056
1,735,707,540,000
1,735,953,141,815
NO
0.074826
5,209.718656
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE
will-trump-face-any-significant-rep
Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?
null
1,717,106,554,501
1,736,640,309,597
1,736,640,309,597
NO
0.01
15,069.189682
5KD2FfeoZKY47RXYdSlA
will-fable-studios-showrunner-app-r
Will the showrunner.xyz streaming platform reach 100,000 monthly active users by May 30, 2025?
null
1,717,102,884,724
1,748,642,399,000
1,748,684,612,753
NO
0.259826
1,122
PRLqMmO6BodAgs9lTbZl
will-responsible-scaling-policies-a
Will "Responsible Scaling Policies Are Risk Managem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,717,053,471,901
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,434,656
NO
0.133368
50
W98ZzyNBGDzrQkffdDdk
president-joe-biden-involved-in-an-x7cg74qn52
President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024?
null
1,717,051,043,546
1,735,660,740,000
1,737,388,998,644
NO
0.018045
8,998.505562
kQXzKqimEA1EwGzV5FuV
will-any-other-country-provide-air
Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025?
null
1,717,022,872,880
1,748,811,540,000
1,748,819,431,484
NO
0.012697
15,916.665117
4lrw56BNLL3fW4dffFiF
will-idfb-2-come-out-before-2025
Will IDFB 2 come out before 2025?
null
1,717,007,454,786
1,735,689,540,000
1,737,702,023,753
NO
0.099306
2,033
LJR2dyc5ByJWo37RS1ZB
will-wrexham-promote-to-the-champio
Will Wrexham promote to the Championship by 2030?
null
1,717,000,572,176
1,745,865,620,974
1,745,865,620,974
YES
0.99
8,954.901936
kiWfLUzDJ1p18xyVfT4H
will-the-price-of-the-icp-crypto-to
Will the price of the ICP crypto token reach over $30 before 2025?
null
1,716,985,881,828
1,735,689,540,000
1,735,785,856,056
NO
0.021787
5,827.93385
PEAh4AsufK9Xdy8kKker
will-australia-announce-the-establi
Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?
null
1,716,945,344,391
1,735,718,340,000
1,736,120,125,674
NO
0.105879
4,490.1168
tLbfugk4O1KretleX5QQ
will-saudi-arabia-roll-back-any-of
Will Saudi Arabia roll back any of MBS’s secularizing reforms by end of 2024?
null
1,716,908,621,880
1,735,711,140,000
1,736,294,058,635
NO
0.044086
3,689.096315
ihKq1q34SYQe2T3DLn5k
will-nicky-case-create-a-market-on
Will Nicky Case create a market on Manifold by end of 2026?
null
1,716,905,268,592
1,742,799,716,673
1,742,799,716,673
YES
0.56592
261
yDS5Fg6Izt4buyxWlP5I
will-the-selfunalignment-problem-ma
Will "The self-unalignment problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,716,904,334,465
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,355,988
NO
0.137743
61
OCTdDzx8qeNH9vw0qpk7
will-shutting-down-the-lightcone-of
Will "Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,716,902,170,933
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,617,421
NO
0.259865
255
QFoPicqb0FJUU1es3Eho
will-cosmopolitan-values-dont-come
Will "Cosmopolitan values don't come free" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
null
1,716,849,934,735
1,738,368,000,000
1,739,304,461,453
NO
0.100024
457
fRXgezTBypho0UlFqsfD
will-firefox-get-native-tab-groups
Will Firefox get native tab groups back in 2024?
null
1,716,839,883,416
1,735,689,540,000
1,736,832,974,316
YES
0.804024
1,131
T9SzDR6iIs9TQqOKuh9q
will-joe-biden-suffer-a-stroke-or-h
Will Joe Biden suffer a stroke or heart attack before January 20, 2025?
null
1,716,838,339,114
1,737,435,540,000
1,737,464,273,509
NO
0.010181
13,367.661522