id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 4 54 | question stringlengths 1 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 6.93M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1CGRvHYDe1qCPRRbtlCl | will-trumps-favorability-increase-a | Will Trump’s favorability increase after sentencing? | null | 1,718,150,307,307 | 1,727,765,940,000 | 1,735,745,375,324 | NO | 0.095108 | 1,094.423405 |
6A4WSR1uHamWMs4lp7xQ | will-i-solve-my-photo-bug-in-no-man | Will i solve my photo bug in No Man's Sky by 2025? | null | 1,718,148,776,611 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,743,239,381 | NO | 0.425105 | 46.401506 |
0fVmzBDbjIAzUj0Z8A7l | will-nobodys-on-the-ball-on-agi-ali | Will "Nobody’s on the ball on AGI alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,148,453,195 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,426,834 | NO | 0.148272 | 10 |
6qSDHpqU8H2i8r2ZvMts | will-media-coverage-about-manifest | Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups? | null | 1,718,147,843,458 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,771,301,614 | NO | 0.032981 | 64,512.878938 |
Dyvz7deMUtsHHx6jQ1tX | will-scotus-hear-the-florida-trans | Will SCOTUS hear the Florida trans kids case after federal judge strikes down 2023 Florida law? | null | 1,718,144,118,920 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,955,617,612 | NO | 0.031717 | 4,552 |
HLGV8vgMIQEB4UKKVyPv | will-there-be-at-least-10-tesla-opt | Will there be at least 10 Tesla Optimus perfuming tasks autonomously at a Tesla factory by the end of 2024? | null | 1,718,140,145,662 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,742,961,058,246 | NO | 0.106994 | 538 |
MDUZyFlHOCiAA3E7ITiI | will-president-biden-release-by-dec | Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination? | null | 1,718,139,397,695 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,912,025,941 | NO | 0.018701 | 77,999.900855 |
dd7xzz1Nvopy1ojZcR6x | will-lighthaven-shut-down-in-2024-d | Will Lighthaven shut down in 2024 due to lack of funds? | null | 1,718,132,110,600 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,148,645 | NO | 0.011064 | 142,245.746906 |
NOeu4K7Iwmb3STSJFkii | will-hunter-biden-serve-any-prison | Will Hunter Biden serve any prison time for any of the 3 charges he was found guilty for? | null | 1,718,131,809,645 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,738,396,351,931 | NO | 0.010983 | 15,468.442903 |
suJZXabJMU8b3huF4s1a | -will-i-organize-another-cuddle-pud | 🤗 Will I organize another cuddle puddle in SF Bay Area? | null | 1,718,121,304,915 | 1,727,765,940,000 | 1,748,833,615,211 | NO | 0.465165 | 2,516.842991 |
T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M | will-volt-be-elected-into-the-next | Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)? | null | 1,718,114,847,917 | 1,740,382,977,223 | 1,740,382,977,223 | NO | 0.01 | 29,690.369572 |
jMoRpMwL4DISuwcGjIPK | will-egypt-open-the-rafah-crossing | Will Egypt open the Rafah crossing in 2024? | null | 1,718,096,167,576 | 1,735,682,340,000 | 1,749,253,920,061 | NO | 0.05801 | 356 |
3w6SzgyB3OElQbKHNg7l | will-elons-grok-phone-be-announced | Will Elon's "Grok phone" be announced in 2024? | null | 1,718,095,765,034 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,955,580,573 | NO | 0.016893 | 7,797.153363 |
oqW3CxOE77WBMtXhiYrk | will-what-are-the-results-of-more-p | Will "What are the results of more parental supervi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,093,297,118 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,303,812,252 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
myIsMoHMLg4FRNYuquXv | will-i-go-on-a-third-date-with-j | Will I go on a third date with J****? | null | 1,718,089,207,237 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,790,369,179 | NO | 0.174738 | 161.471279 |
5NKwwyvKAGR7321V888r | will-stochasticparrot-attend-a-mani | Will @StochasticParrot attend a Manifest in 2025? | null | 1,718,083,403,323 | 1,749,309,636,936 | 1,749,309,636,936 | YES | 0.99 | 9,341.487741 |
pHH28qPbziDOi9UltU2L | will-rationality-winning-make-the-t | Will "Rationality !== Winning" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,718,068,814,640 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,363,872 | NO | 0.165402 | 32 |
wCpBQF8erLRrEkNiZoPt | will-mr-basil-survive-2024 | Will Mr. Basil survive 2024? | null | 1,718,053,193,555 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,732,902,534 | YES | 0.956869 | 6,784.210812 |
BmYt7Hq9Krlm5vv096S4 | will-manifest-2025-have-someone-mor | Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver, according to YouGov? | null | 1,718,043,933,981 | 1,749,492,248,520 | 1,749,492,248,520 | NO | 0.053204 | 4,020.801877 |
cW3myaGrHHp8CFoIKbfS | will-voter-turnout-in-the-2024-pres-dvw9ec5fvk | Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%? | null | 1,718,035,227,785 | 1,735,704,420,000 | 1,735,772,515,057 | NO | 0.010061 | 27,429.584376 |
6zOcnTq3aXWMItQAhOMM | will-florida-power-light-company-fp | Will Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) announce intent to build an AP1000 at Turkey Point in 2024? | null | 1,718,009,559,841 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,963,015,436 | NO | 0.041934 | 38,528.881412 |
av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | null | 1,718,001,258,281 | 1,748,599,843,783 | 1,748,599,843,783 | YES | 0.989913 | 12,735.023195 |
DLUwpsv8BmaLuz0LCsYH | will-manifest-2025-be-hosted-at-lig | Will Manifest 2025 be hosted at Lighthaven? | null | 1,717,983,518,093 | 1,750,177,729,588 | 1,750,177,729,588 | YES | 0.990692 | 12,283.689524 |
7ZPAWBfmAEVtmSU1b0sC | will-manifold-help-me-pivot-my-care | Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,959,607,998 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,932,329,223 | NO | 0.440678 | 13,801.12202 |
jF9buA1Zq52N2O0QkV0P | will-talking-publicly-about-ai-risk | Will "Talking publicly about AI risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,951,961,569 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,415,124 | NO | 0.206915 | 85 |
eSk4MX67MIHzkK84Rpfd | will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-make-i | Will the Toronto Maple Leafs make it to the NHL playoffs in the 2025 season? | null | 1,717,951,242,413 | 1,744,044,056,786 | 1,744,044,056,786 | YES | 0.989372 | 10,349.653782 |
4uLirf8bawE6H5jj6vWh | will-there-be-a-session-about-cool | Will there be a session about "Cool Poker" / "Poker 2" / "RPS Poker" at a Manifest held in 2025? | null | 1,717,925,043,320 | 1,749,492,411,781 | 1,749,492,411,781 | YES | 0.953359 | 6,403.287336 |
TIbZx4Kd88oaEP7CuuFG | will-shuko-be-banned-in-modern-in-2 | Will Shuko be banned in Modern in 2024? | null | 1,717,900,142,284 | 1,735,721,196,987 | 1,735,721,196,987 | NO | 0.011294 | 18,842.59853 |
xPQK1xUe6sObiKdmWcP9 | will-touch-reality-as-soon-as-possi | Will "Touch reality as soon as possible (when doing..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,897,477,736 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,350,401 | NO | 0.127181 | 100 |
7qD4WONyQgXNQbCGVBBm | will-graphical-tensor-notation-for | Will "Graphical tensor notation for interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,887,121,258 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,105,874 | NO | 0.139033 | 7 |
NdKIxJP74QVtXHrPDPvi | will-advice-for-newly-busy-people-m | Will "Advice for newly busy people" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,877,518,515 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,972,412 | NO | 0.148272 | 10 |
hIylc25DMj3bJ2V1fPo9 | will-english-wikipedia-have-more-pa | Will English Wikipedia have more page views in 2024 than in 2023? | null | 1,717,865,304,948 | 1,736,422,173,802 | 1,736,422,173,802 | YES | 0.979834 | 634 |
v6UUopLRUlNTnxyqxLMa | will-i-weigh-under-200-lbs-on-20241 | Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week) | null | 1,717,860,014,997 | 1,735,624,740,000 | 1,735,750,128,684 | NO | 0.246671 | 6,383.047021 |
NTjr8ptihEhvnRhFLDtM | russia-detonates-nuclear-weapon-for | Russia detonates nuclear weapon for any purpose before EOY 2024? | null | 1,717,842,075,564 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,940,383,428 | NO | 0.077101 | 8,905.762762 |
8sE6Ygpgso4vhqfYqons | will-the-esquire-theatre-in-denver | Will the Esquire Theatre in Denver, Colorado, be operational as a theatre in 2025? | null | 1,717,833,013,959 | 1,735,766,150,221 | 1,735,766,150,221 | NO | 0.02676 | 5,075 |
gvExxWwTMhpbNsuDMxq0 | will-there-be-a-2nd-summer-camp-hel | Will there be a 2nd summer camp held in 2025? | null | 1,717,827,152,641 | 1,750,177,665,597 | 1,750,177,665,597 | YES | 0.990664 | 10,503.804653 |
XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3 | will-jailbreaks-in-large-language-m | Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,815,518,482 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,786,497,141 | NO | 0.059405 | 17,408.998258 |
yUJuoDdGQqnKY8SuBY8G | will-us-skiersnowboarder-visits-for | Will US skier/snowboarder visits for the 2024-25 season rank #1 on record? | null | 1,717,815,279,916 | 1,746,935,940,000 | 1,747,101,081,602 | NO | 0.13 | 160.538228 |
U70x3czGMacth3AnlCXl | will-spaces-timecube-ad-lead-to-1-m | Will Space’s timecube ad lead to >1 month of attic stay? | null | 1,717,809,330,636 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,190,569,244 | NO | 0.033589 | 47,501.778192 |
wC5Lg83E3Xh7Qx7ymqnv | will-tao-be-severely-injured-in-a-e | Will Tao be severely injured in a electric unicycle accident in 2024? | null | 1,717,787,319,963 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,844,431,470 | NO | 0.023086 | 42,274.424215 |
z7mgQBkt0PD7HvsaKQHv | will-dont-accelerate-problems-youre | Will "Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,742,957,700 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,305,508,770 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
SrGP9xpqDthvioIdFgfG | will-the-salt-in-pasta-water-fallac | Will "The salt in pasta water fallacy" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,725,468,630 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,303,809,879 | NO | 0.166692 | 31 |
NTzDIAxDpvua30AlsBII | will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr | Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,708,809,692 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,849,325,407 | NO | 0.028446 | 66,712.254412 |
yICG9wEfnAf8vLqJKwIb | will-there-be-a-3rd-manifest-confer | Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025? | null | 1,717,708,793,922 | 1,749,328,578,808 | 1,749,328,578,808 | YES | 0.990917 | 18,865.343588 |
XX8qvcvm5WlajOApFPje | will-the-wayward-realms-be-released | Will "The Wayward Realms" be released as Early Access by EOY 2024? | null | 1,717,689,848,406 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,757,996,315 | NO | 0.027169 | 4,995 |
GX6ddmamuRUYjlqcAH0u | will-21e8-ltd-ship-any-product-by-j | Will 21e8, Ltd, ship any product by June 5, 2025? | null | 1,717,677,898,662 | 1,749,178,740,000 | 1,749,316,503,275 | NO | 0.01 | 956.403085 |
Do3JB4Xnd87AlCz1JxjE | will-alphatom-reach-2100-elo-in-bul | Will AlphaTom reach 2100 ELO in Bullet by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,664,653,430 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,761,157,346 | NO | 0.064751 | 4,954.852244 |
HnI2lD13dLdOqVA3DodD | will-a-new-antitrust-case-be-filed | Will a new antitrust case be filed against Nvidia, OpenAI, or Microsoft in 2024? | null | 1,717,646,692,989 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,738,315,447,458 | NO | 0.040092 | 441.932681 |
62cWs0IOTjXhxxAgyWY5 | will-there-be-more-than-10-laborato | Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,629,275,593 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,737,046,469,932 | NO | 0.011954 | 19,299.11715 |
tt0FV4CT0ZezBTY9MgE7 | will-billy-mitchell-win-his-defamat | Will Billy Mitchell win his defamation lawsuit against Karl Jobst? | null | 1,717,620,897,624 | 1,743,458,340,000 | 1,746,089,918,002 | YES | 0.11361 | 2,014.497964 |
89HIf4XwwImkvKwrLftv | will-ben-johnson-be-an-nfl-head-coa-04h5h3xwua | Will Ben Johnson be an NFL Head Coach by April 1, 2025? | null | 1,717,600,595,433 | 1,737,515,831,908 | 1,737,515,831,908 | YES | 0.99 | 1,703.844882 |
578rXY73kUWeBcZOvsts | will-tetra-make-an-alignmentfocused | Will Tetra make an alignment-focused LessWrong post that she is proud of by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,598,704,599 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,701,243,106 | NO | 0.151452 | 3,570.662901 |
crd1bQkWUcBknXsq7iWt | will-manifold-have-a-team-in-any-es | Will Manifold have a team in any esport by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,585,346,980 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,862,164,532 | NO | 0.01 | 947.229899 |
Vp2k38UCpyelOHBD98jM | will-the-navigation-fund-have-a-gra-ik7k4gvtx7 | Will the Navigation Fund have a grant report on the level of individual grants by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,580,987,488 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,739,599,156,139 | NO | 0.301613 | 564 |
xjaaeG5JstFIvD7COfWu | will-a-skies-of-arcadia-remasterrem | Will a Skies of Arcadia remaster/remake be officially announced in 2024? | null | 1,717,580,625,762 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,330,824,902 | NO | 0.01 | 8,967.236027 |
67dal14KSC585YKMWiQM | will-seti-receive-a-radio-transmiss | Will SETI receive a radio transmission that is unambiguously from another world by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,572,240,332 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,747,686,151,982 | NO | 0.012552 | 1,650.676236 |
JF9FB5gzkERemNqT6bUV | will-i-fix-it-so-people-can-login-t | Will I fix it so people can login to my game, LogicBox, by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,542,880,165 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,849,345,164 | NO | 0.45 | 142.747525 |
hYFBkOLFRjntyshQsHfR | will-mexican-president-claudia-shei | Will Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum deploy the military against the Cartels? | null | 1,717,538,967,515 | 1,738,914,031,696 | 1,738,914,031,696 | YES | 0.680029 | 734 |
bIXcZaAbAzgVhPJhDINl | will-someone-break-the-singleseason | Will someone break the single-season sack record in 2024? | null | 1,717,523,137,203 | 1,736,398,740,000 | 1,736,426,742,983 | NO | 0.01 | 19,321.906685 |
Gk4gN5eRPxPJGGYliMyC | will-solana-become-a-top-3-cryptocu | Will Solana become a top 3 cryptocurrency by market cap before EOY? | null | 1,717,509,834,196 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,708,940,920 | NO | 0.035287 | 10,092.928601 |
WV5CbKGA4tU8TW2jQUTd | will-preventing-language-models-fro | Will "Preventing Language Models from hiding their ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,501,577,563 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,600,218 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
4MaN1A1DglFSA4tKkgm0 | will-there-be-a-usd-1-billion-or-mo | Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG) | null | 1,717,497,536,668 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,190,768,026 | YES | 0.828168 | 739.681037 |
NU72Pp11lFbFyVFrmHvk | will-new-york-state-bill-to-regulat | Will New York State bill to "regulate social media algorithms for children" be implemented in 2024? | null | 1,717,477,058,228 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,955,633,898 | NO | 0.035582 | 5,813.015486 |
mOqFZlHoExvqnRbK2kyQ | will-anthropic-employ-scott-aaronso | Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025? | null | 1,717,438,417,327 | 1,742,626,740,000 | 1,742,836,181,516 | NO | 0.010105 | 10,166.793561 |
pa3xHsEglqfISlMy60am | will-real-madrid-make-it-to-the-202 | Will Real Madrid make it to the 2024/25 Champions League Final? | null | 1,717,419,390,364 | 1,745,437,332,588 | 1,745,437,332,588 | NO | 0.010023 | 16,007.013859 |
wY88KFhWNCCApxp2PYYx | will-from-fear-to-excitement-make-t | Will "From fear to excitement" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,415,063,010 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,098,081 | NO | 0.16 | 22.232197 |
QgCzaxnuQCVTt7xmCt06 | will-the-cvs-on-telegraph-avenue-st | Will the CVS across from Lighthaven stay open for another year? | null | 1,717,386,837,754 | 1,749,538,740,000 | 1,749,632,039,214 | YES | 0.99 | 9,040.276387 |
IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz | will-udeepfuckingvalue-roaring-kitt | Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024? | null | 1,717,386,307,093 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,735,701,115,573 | NO | 0.01 | 46,313.58195 |
2u7mheCfcIMuvZPT7I4B | will-the-navigation-fund-have-a-gra | Will the Navigation Fund have a grant report at the level of funds granted by cause area by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,341,258,586 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,739,599,158,716 | NO | 0.330847 | 570 |
kxd456bpIMfxIIvvAwdx | will-cybertruck-2025-receive-a-full | Will Cybertruck 2025 receive a full five star safety rating? | null | 1,717,335,852,898 | 1,739,921,639,801 | 1,739,921,639,801 | NO | 0.01 | 13,218.963997 |
iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4 | will-the-nintendo-switch-2-have-the | Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch? | null | 1,717,279,070,339 | 1,737,043,598,767 | 1,737,043,598,767 | YES | 0.989646 | 11,794.733155 |
MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix | will-china-blockade-taiwan-between | Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration? | null | 1,717,248,616,842 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,893,019,102 | NO | 0.01 | 9,719.293571 |
p3TJSmcHOFMMakD7HyPS | will-the-idf-relinquish-control-of | Will the IDF relinquish control of the Philadelphi corridor before the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,224,209,196 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,709,762,866 | NO | 0.020864 | 5,966 |
GfK2KCXVZvnZgnnF2ZeG | will-snapchat-sign-a-partnership-wi | Will Snapchat sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,192,336,706 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,963,126,602 | NO | 0.095022 | 2,719.135988 |
1EasGxrjHn4FZI6DptrN | will-mal-abdallah-be-diagnosed-with | Will Mal Abdalla be diagnosed with autism by EOY 2025? | null | 1,717,192,077,311 | 1,741,323,832,918 | 1,741,323,832,918 | YES | 0.619274 | 310 |
feMCq34j29brsNpxBsIc | given-the-recent-allegations-about | Given the recent allegations about Gala Games, will its GALA token end 2024 higher than the current price of $0.04289 | null | 1,717,183,435,694 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,852,008,837 | NO | 0.054383 | 6,868.128446 |
QAlWiKWrorzm0JV5lldO | will-there-be-a-public-photo-of-tru | Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024? | null | 1,717,180,419,621 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,739,774,007,383 | NO | 0.046688 | 4,782.831022 |
mlUOpWwlwfxLlldEzbn2 | sidder-nicolai-dyhr-i-fngsel-inden | Sidder Nicolai Dyhr i fængsel inden udgangen af 2024? | null | 1,717,179,693,013 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,736,576,714,723 | NO | 0.1 | 2,000 |
y4hNixQSf3WLAeK1dcH9 | will-x-meta-snapchat-instagram-yout | Will X, Meta, Snapchat, instagram, YouTube, twitch or TikTok ANNOUNCE a name change before the end of Q2 2025? | null | 1,717,176,032,319 | 1,751,428,740,000 | 1,751,918,716,669 | NO | 0.01 | 21,253.383906 |
zutDEtzXJq9pvcrSsRgd | will-someone-die-from-or-with-h5n1 | Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024? | null | 1,717,176,004,752 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,955,594,675 | NO | 0.032264 | 75,034.788437 |
IBezIpRUNmysXIRjHPaL | will-slack-sign-a-partnership-with | Will Slack sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,168,149,255 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,953,436,819 | NO | 0.150083 | 1,607 |
sXzllzL6HNXTngxd1C58 | will-a-french-soldier-in-ukraine-be | Will a French soldier in Ukraine be killed by Russia before the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,165,643,387 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,053,177 | NO | 0.03492 | 9,708.540657 |
AYWXj8IQ68wHX68V77qX | will-a-rocket-league-bot-team-of-3 | Will a Rocket League bot team (of 3 car) beat a team of 3 professional human players in a typical series in 2024? | null | 1,717,149,547,889 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,783,498,532 | NO | 0.416066 | 987.465837 |
eQTedEJqkPFm92YesSx2 | will-discord-sign-a-partnership-wit | Will Discord sign a partnership with OpenAI before the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,122,910,056 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,953,141,815 | NO | 0.074826 | 5,209.718656 |
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE | will-trump-face-any-significant-rep | Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict? | null | 1,717,106,554,501 | 1,736,640,309,597 | 1,736,640,309,597 | NO | 0.01 | 15,069.189682 |
5KD2FfeoZKY47RXYdSlA | will-fable-studios-showrunner-app-r | Will the showrunner.xyz streaming platform reach 100,000 monthly active users by May 30, 2025? | null | 1,717,102,884,724 | 1,748,642,399,000 | 1,748,684,612,753 | NO | 0.259826 | 1,122 |
PRLqMmO6BodAgs9lTbZl | will-responsible-scaling-policies-a | Will "Responsible Scaling Policies Are Risk Managem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,717,053,471,901 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,434,656 | NO | 0.133368 | 50 |
W98ZzyNBGDzrQkffdDdk | president-joe-biden-involved-in-an-x7cg74qn52 | President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024? | null | 1,717,051,043,546 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,737,388,998,644 | NO | 0.018045 | 8,998.505562 |
kQXzKqimEA1EwGzV5FuV | will-any-other-country-provide-air | Will any other country provide air defence coverage for Ukraine, before June 2025? | null | 1,717,022,872,880 | 1,748,811,540,000 | 1,748,819,431,484 | NO | 0.012697 | 15,916.665117 |
4lrw56BNLL3fW4dffFiF | will-idfb-2-come-out-before-2025 | Will IDFB 2 come out before 2025? | null | 1,717,007,454,786 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,737,702,023,753 | NO | 0.099306 | 2,033 |
LJR2dyc5ByJWo37RS1ZB | will-wrexham-promote-to-the-champio | Will Wrexham promote to the Championship by 2030? | null | 1,717,000,572,176 | 1,745,865,620,974 | 1,745,865,620,974 | YES | 0.99 | 8,954.901936 |
kiWfLUzDJ1p18xyVfT4H | will-the-price-of-the-icp-crypto-to | Will the price of the ICP crypto token reach over $30 before 2025? | null | 1,716,985,881,828 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,785,856,056 | NO | 0.021787 | 5,827.93385 |
PEAh4AsufK9Xdy8kKker | will-australia-announce-the-establi | Will Australia announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024? | null | 1,716,945,344,391 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,120,125,674 | NO | 0.105879 | 4,490.1168 |
tLbfugk4O1KretleX5QQ | will-saudi-arabia-roll-back-any-of | Will Saudi Arabia roll back any of MBS’s secularizing reforms by end of 2024? | null | 1,716,908,621,880 | 1,735,711,140,000 | 1,736,294,058,635 | NO | 0.044086 | 3,689.096315 |
ihKq1q34SYQe2T3DLn5k | will-nicky-case-create-a-market-on | Will Nicky Case create a market on Manifold by end of 2026? | null | 1,716,905,268,592 | 1,742,799,716,673 | 1,742,799,716,673 | YES | 0.56592 | 261 |
yDS5Fg6Izt4buyxWlP5I | will-the-selfunalignment-problem-ma | Will "The self-unalignment problem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,904,334,465 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,355,988 | NO | 0.137743 | 61 |
OCTdDzx8qeNH9vw0qpk7 | will-shutting-down-the-lightcone-of | Will "Shutting Down the Lightcone Offices" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,902,170,933 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,617,421 | NO | 0.259865 | 255 |
QFoPicqb0FJUU1es3Eho | will-cosmopolitan-values-dont-come | Will "Cosmopolitan values don't come free" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,849,934,735 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,461,453 | NO | 0.100024 | 457 |
fRXgezTBypho0UlFqsfD | will-firefox-get-native-tab-groups | Will Firefox get native tab groups back in 2024? | null | 1,716,839,883,416 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,736,832,974,316 | YES | 0.804024 | 1,131 |
T9SzDR6iIs9TQqOKuh9q | will-joe-biden-suffer-a-stroke-or-h | Will Joe Biden suffer a stroke or heart attack before January 20, 2025? | null | 1,716,838,339,114 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,464,273,509 | NO | 0.010181 | 13,367.661522 |
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