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s5ijx3q8d5
will-any-state-have-more-than-50000
Will any state have more than 50,000 customers without power (orange on US Power Outage Map) before the end of 2024?
null
1,729,517,892,203
1,730,641,235,205
1,730,641,235,205
YES
0.742931
700
4x2ys7xtrg
will-any-candidate-win-a-majority-o
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
null
1,729,514,786,473
1,735,611,366,984
1,735,611,366,984
NO
0.011022
17,408.994609
sv3zk1ko3n
will-the-ecb-decrease-rates-in-decm
Will the ECB decrease rates in December ?
null
1,729,508,807,237
1,734,049,266,807
1,734,049,266,807
YES
0.913742
257
fplb5cjab0
will-harris-or-walz-work-at-mcdonal
Will Harris or Walz work at McDonald’s before the election?
null
1,729,506,696,218
1,730,869,140,000
1,730,870,713,451
NO
0.01
10,272.287467
i8b78fvhuu
will-the-first-confirmed-capture-of
Will the first confirmed capture of a North Korean soldier by Ukrainian forces occur before the end of 2024?
null
1,729,503,923,212
1,735,417,044,803
1,735,417,044,803
YES
0.843127
47,486.056343
gwr0hks3uh
kamala-harris-2-or-higher-in-nation
Kamala Harris +2 or higher in national polls on October 28th?
null
1,729,499,178,318
1,730,185,140,000
1,730,194,596,589
NO
0.035663
420
aah2qhc0d2
will-israel-launch-an-attack-on-ira
Will Israel launch an attack on Iranian soil before the end of October 2024?
null
1,729,498,802,025
1,729,905,865,245
1,729,905,865,245
YES
0.99
12,822.682905
2fyej0us8a
will-manicode-reach-top-5-on-produc
Will Manicode reach top 5 on Product Hunt today?
null
1,729,496,585,552
1,729,580,340,000
1,729,800,094,490
NO
0.03
4,860
f4bt2zoe8f
will-twitch-have-a-new-ceo-by-the-e
Will Twitch have a new CEO by the end of 2024?
null
1,729,489,460,236
1,735,671,227,168
1,735,671,227,168
NO
0.01
1,105.066611
8bygwvnd5a
will-hasan-be-banned-from-twitch-fo
Will Hasan be banned from Twitch for at least 1 day by the end of 2024?
null
1,729,484,301,809
1,735,671,726,376
1,735,671,726,376
NO
0.016169
2,347.016989
zmnw65lxk8
will-the-new-york-times-publish-an
Will the New York Times publish an article about Twitch restricting sign ups in Israel by the end of November?
null
1,729,480,225,196
1,733,029,140,000
1,733,034,397,317
NO
0.01
900.281784
juq3v9nm1u
trump-wins-pennsylvania-by-2-or-mor
Trump wins Pennsylvania by 2% or more?
null
1,729,470,771,957
1,733,519,920,584
1,733,519,926,030
NO
0.236804
2,469
ebk9nj5hvr
will-i-use-more-than-70-meal-plan-s
will I use more than 70 meal plan swipes this semester
null
1,729,462,359,287
1,734,750,661,505
1,734,750,661,505
NO
0.334831
2,104.125423
rfx23hf71p
will-trump-reach-60-in-nate-silvers
Will Trump reach 60% in Nate Silver’s model again before the election?
null
1,729,455,428,220
1,730,794,360,832
1,730,794,360,832
NO
0.019449
6,991.542852
908oznuaud
will-it-snow-in-washington-dc-in-de
Will it snow in Washington DC in December 2024
null
1,729,454,267,079
1,734,801,268,888
1,734,801,268,888
YES
0.965594
440
av1j05i8y3
will-daniel-penny-take-the-stand-in
Will Daniel Penny take the stand in his trial?
null
1,729,446,158,779
1,733,353,506,634
1,733,353,506,634
NO
0.00981
9,177.98412
mxgk5690sb
will-harris-lead-in-the-economists
Will Harris lead in The Economist's Final election forecast?
null
1,729,444,985,156
1,730,955,540,000
1,731,090,510,317
YES
0.99
1,165.292714
dwe0y5jh15
will-north-korean-troops-enter-sout
Will North Korean troops intentionally enter South Korea by the end of November 2024?
null
1,729,441,594,357
1,733,029,140,000
1,733,034,390,366
NO
0.01
1,193.054181
d1iujcnkjl
will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-95t07111tz
Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 55 and 56?
null
1,729,438,783,784
1,730,041,622,972
1,730,041,625,921
NO
0.43
152
qbw1wskmmg
will-my-sister-give-birth-before-th
Will my sister give birth before the Formula 1 race finishes today?
null
1,729,438,162,328
1,729,462,734,978
1,729,462,741,794
NO
0.49
70
z82diw5vfm
will-carissa-yip-win-the-2024-us-wo
Will Carissa Yip win the 2024 U.S. Women's Chess Championship with 11/11?
null
1,729,429,801,409
1,729,547,967,120
1,729,547,967,120
NO
0.05
3,468
m5k0dye2f9
will-there-be-40-kills-in-at-least
Will there be 40+ kills in at least one of the games in the match between GenG and Flyquest in the LoL Worlds quarters?
null
1,729,425,828,949
1,729,547,940,000
1,729,930,888,430
NO
0.01
894.987437
jq4xl0wb28
will-moldovas-eu-membership-referen
Will Moldova's EU membership referendum pass?
null
1,729,424,288,380
1,730,156,998,983
1,730,156,998,983
YES
0.99
2,950.010591
5gvpdlgtub
will-elon-musk-claim-voter-fraud-in
Will Elon Musk claim voter fraud in Pennsylvania, citing the Super PAC petition numbers?
null
1,729,407,999,502
1,731,941,866,889
1,731,941,866,889
NO
0.018015
10,111.669214
hav5n9ox87
will-bluesky-reach-20-million-users
Will Bluesky reach 20 million users by the end of this year?
null
1,729,403,701,356
1,732,033,223,212
1,732,033,223,212
YES
0.99
1,357.214285
emzh95x7h1
daily-coinflip-mhydj6xum3
Daily coinflip
null
1,729,398,555,024
1,729,569,540,000
1,729,569,944,666
YES
0.51
6,188.885636
4ss19fez8v
will-pete-rose-be-inducted-into-the
Will Pete Rose be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame by the end of 2024?
null
1,729,394,336,721
1,729,440,702,246
1,729,440,702,246
NO
0.02
565
uwndib4f9f
will-solana-close-above-155-on-octo
Will Solana Close Above $155 on October 25?
null
1,729,391,776,587
1,729,919,561,200
1,729,919,561,200
YES
0.99
915.444557
b0kdgz3ar6
will-opus-35-be-released-this-week
Will Opus 3.5 be released this week?
null
1,729,385,652,946
1,730,098,740,000
1,730,738,817,283
NO
0.010951
10,503.30723
ftor3d82bi
will-this-market-close-above-50-per-j46ae4m5vw
Will this market close above 50% percent?
null
1,729,368,474,568
1,730,005,140,000
1,730,005,347,551
NO
0.1
67,140.872905
y07g3pba5c
will-the-philly-portal-be-shut-down
will the philly portal be shut down before end of October 2024?
null
1,729,364,155,297
1,730,399,340,000
1,730,404,212,393
YES
0.922385
571.495223
crutp6ae7p
will-trump-concede-the-election-as
Will Trump concede the election as part of a deal with Biden for a pardon?
null
1,729,362,918,697
1,730,920,741,722
1,730,920,741,722
NO
0.000955
37,666.437141
ggaeb2o764
musical-turing-test-was-this-song-c
Musical "Turing test": was this song created by models?
null
1,729,356,014,615
1,730,001,540,000
1,730,143,427,110
NO
0.79
1,327.399418
jn1l1368eo
is-red-one-2024-going-to-be-a-flop
Is Red One (2024) going to be a flop? 🎅
null
1,729,351,022,412
1,735,459,140,000
1,735,683,702,258
YES
0.970482
855.677638
4up55sw7qb
will-we-get-a-video-of-claude-35-op
Will we get a video of claude 3.5 Sonnet running a very single minded competent minecraft agent before December 2024?
null
1,729,350,363,828
1,731,967,794,924
1,734,731,450,729
NO
0.182522
13,594.348003
x607d0fuir
will-anthropic-release-an-api-relat
Will Anthropic release an API related to agent use on October 22, 2024?
null
1,729,348,927,483
1,729,611,423,184
1,729,611,423,184
YES
0.91
7,051.183637
tmi53dwxps
will-anthropic-launch-a-new-product
Will Anthropic launch a new product by October 22nd?
null
1,729,333,726,638
1,729,634,396,303
1,729,634,396,303
YES
0.99
4,163.992788
hvdua9k5sf
will-elon-musk-be-at-the-f1-race-in
Will Elon Musk be at the F1 Race in Austin on Sunday?
null
1,729,315,499,082
1,729,450,800,000
1,729,469,239,697
NO
0.15
185
vwab4ucv8e
will-both-kamala-harris-and-donald-9aofxkgjtj
Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before election day?
null
1,729,311,335,193
1,730,879,940,000
1,730,901,718,442
NO
0.008305
34,737.433402
jgdzmerryb
will-there-be-a-third-assassination-s96e3g1aoh
Will there be a third assassination attempt against Trump before Nov elections?
null
1,729,307,715,873
1,730,950,759,581
1,730,950,759,581
NO
0.01
1,516.120271
bfpn7s83rg
ballot-props-will-denver-ban-slaugh
Ballot Props: Will Denver ban slaughterhouses? (Initiated Ordinance 309)
null
1,729,299,165,634
1,730,908,713,418
1,730,908,713,418
NO
0.093642
235
v8alcq880o
will-republicans-lead-in-the-final
Will Republicans lead in the final 538 House forecast?
null
1,729,296,007,453
1,730,696,340,000
1,730,821,664,037
NO
0.766257
1,574.926875
q76bna297g
will-i-finish-section-1-of-the-duol
Will I finish Section 1 of the DuoLingo Japanese course this year?
null
1,729,285,333,363
1,735,650,897,815
1,735,650,897,815
NO
0.203545
112
euzxtni60i
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-j1kww46mqg
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 21 than it closed on Oct 18?
null
1,729,282,082,791
1,729,540,936,454
1,729,540,936,454
NO
0.03
831.692006
hvgu4vuiqb
will-the-sun-belt-nv-az-ga-nc-and-r
Will the Sun Belt (NV, AZ, GA, NC) and Rust Belt (WI, MI, PA) swing states be distinct clusters in the 2024 election?
null
1,729,279,820,560
1,731,016,458,072
1,731,016,458,072
YES
0.99
894.987437
keec8omr4m
will-this-market-close-above-8-perc
Will this market close above 80% percent?
null
1,729,275,676,380
1,729,918,740,000
1,729,920,619,539
NO
0.01
49,197.660707
e8l9c10lyg
will-any-3rd-party-candidate-win-ov
Will any 3rd party candidate win over 1% of the popular vote nationally?
null
1,729,275,652,229
1,730,869,140,000
1,732,741,647,290
NO
0.479627
1,184
s04n3e76g2
will-it-be-blg-vs-gen-final-in-the
Will it be BLG vs. GEN final in the LoL Worlds 2024?
null
1,729,273,663,334
1,730,046,092,463
1,730,046,092,463
NO
0.01
1,041.353771
ds9x660yri
will-this-market-close-below-45-per
Will this market close below 45% percent?
null
1,729,271,701,922
1,729,918,740,000
1,729,920,506,237
NO
0.45
634.661377
bo0tidk3ua
will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1131
Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1131 of One Piece on November 7th?
null
1,729,266,424,509
1,731,052,740,000
1,731,163,925,244
NO
0.01
9,483.767258
2ayijgu08d
will-absolute-voter-turnout-in-the
Will absolute voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential election be higher than 2020?
null
1,729,262,905,438
1,731,743,940,000
1,731,864,753,335
NO
0.008958
145,454.928762
9kp1w6mx57
-2024-ncaaf-will-florida-defeat-ken
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Florida defeat Kentucky?
null
1,729,254,297,560
1,729,395,300,305
1,729,395,300,305
YES
0.99
9,188.756466
zxcfeoe2jq
will-the-us-provide-midair-refuelin
Will the US provide mid-air refueling to the Israeli strike group in the anticipated retaliatory strike on Iran?
null
1,729,245,938,121
1,729,965,195,648
1,729,965,195,648
NO
0.02
1,948
oyplimzv65
will-aileen-cannon-recuse-herself-i
Will Aileen Cannon recuse herself in the case of the second Trump would-be assassin?
null
1,729,245,219,993
1,732,361,941,919
1,732,361,941,919
NO
0.075132
2,708.228128
ltmiiywczq
will-1-usd-to-cad-hit-139-or-higher
Will 1 USD to CAD hit 1.39 or higher before end of year?
null
1,729,234,040,385
1,730,279,206,981
1,730,279,206,981
YES
0.816089
175.594547
1ouu9upb0m
will-the-forbidden-forecast-correct
Will the Forbidden Forecast correctly predict the result of the 2024 election?
null
1,729,230,239,182
1,730,786,340,000
1,730,925,007,300
NO
0.558222
176
s5ad77og1a
will-antarctica-be-cold-tommorow
Will Antarctica be cold tommorow?
null
1,729,228,668,219
1,729,317,540,000
1,730,344,419,340
YES
0.972863
1,357.533593
qi7p8g6v4a
will-trump-be-leading-in-the-popula
Will Trump be leading in the popular vote at 12:00 AM PT on Election Night?
null
1,729,228,101,600
1,730,879,940,000
1,730,880,447,856
YES
0.956501
4,629.884037
vjq8nqjnrj
daily-coinflip-xjr807001x
Daily coinflip
null
1,729,224,547,259
1,729,396,740,000
1,729,398,543,538
NO
0.52
6,579.741507
p9flg4msrs
will-t1-win-against-tes-in-quarterf
Will T1 win against TES in quarterfinals? (League of Legends Worlds 2024)
null
1,729,217,297,182
1,729,366,734,586
1,729,366,734,586
YES
0.98
5,980.889638
6a8nmj557x
will-kate-barr-win
Will Kate Barr win?
null
1,729,212,938,708
1,730,957,467,088
1,730,957,467,088
NO
0.01
894.987437
cykdu0o63l
will-eminem-record-a-song-for-venom
Will Eminem record a song for Venom 3?
null
1,729,212,860,046
1,729,839,540,000
1,729,860,155,107
NO
0.3
284
bbyaykp4bx
will-one-candidate-win-6-out-of-7-s
Will one candidate win exactly 6 out of 7 swing states?
null
1,729,212,177,354
1,731,059,759,162
1,731,059,759,162
NO
0.01
17,748.804905
12mapocrmm
will-more-new-york-gop-house-seats
Will more New York GOP held US House seats flip than California GOP held US House seats?
null
1,729,212,077,556
1,733,307,492,640
1,733,307,492,640
NO
0.113964
4,562.615394
r8lr4hoiz9
will-the-us-presidency-be-called-by
Will the US Presidency be called by AP before the House of Representatives?
null
1,729,211,619,263
1,730,889,890,900
1,730,889,890,900
YES
0.964259
5,150.941657
zbutra6maa
will-israel-bomb-qatar-syria-and-tu
Will Israel bomb Qatar, Syria, and Turkey after the fall of Hamas this year?
null
1,729,202,365,279
1,729,275,153,865
1,729,275,153,865
NO
0.12
174.429429
lgt194e6jw
will-charli-xcx-perform-at-a-kamala
Will Charli XCX perform at a Kamala Harris rally before election day?
null
1,729,199,674,192
1,730,879,940,000
1,730,923,048,983
NO
0.024876
6,452.630746
e0a3yrcmre
north-korea-x-south-korea-military
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?
null
1,729,198,977,574
1,735,659,015,547
1,735,659,015,547
NO
0.01
15,697.889343
iw5a40qag9
will-bronny-score-a-3-in-his-first
Will Bronny score a 3 in his first regular season game?
null
1,729,198,518,077
1,729,684,603,586
1,729,684,603,586
NO
0.01
9,914.277553
sw60s2tthc
will-warren-place-a-single-bet-on-p
Will Warren place a single bet on polymarket before the 2024 election
null
1,729,198,406,717
1,730,869,140,000
1,732,649,069,453
NO
0.21692
90
lc1edij4ng
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-4b2h1usepi
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 18 than it closed on Oct 17?
null
1,729,195,642,062
1,729,281,774,371
1,729,281,774,371
YES
0.99
894.987437
zuymhj254r
was-yehia-sinwar-killed-by-the-idf
Was yehia sinwar killed by the IDF in oct 17
null
1,729,172,276,261
1,729,187,703,582
1,729,187,703,582
NO
0.99
1,228.450235
bl58qoznmh
will-the-final-rasmussen-reports-na
Will the final Rasmussen Reports national poll be accurate within 4 points?
null
1,729,164,907,772
1,730,851,200,000
1,731,875,490,717
YES
0.415814
81
3eej4qtpex
will-trump-get-more-votes-in-2024-t--cash
Will Trump get more votes in 2024 than he got in 2020?
null
1,729,162,961,643
1,731,121,186,169
1,731,121,186,169
YES
0.989679
7,681.597337
p1a2fth22u
will-fredi9999-own-more-than-30-mil
Will Fredi9999 own more than 30 million Donald Trump shares on Polymarket on Election Day?
null
1,729,156,485,890
1,730,826,000,000
1,730,839,117,359
NO
0.012372
2,028.557513
qndq34ieh6
trump-leads-5-or-more-swing-states
Trump leads 5 or more swing states in polls on Election day? (President Election)
null
1,729,141,257,194
1,730,842,345,561
1,730,842,345,561
YES
0.749178
401
jy17277ckr
one-month-from-today-will-hollow-kn-gf8lriu6m6
One month from today, will Hollow Knight Silksong's release date be officially announced and known?
null
1,729,140,278,290
1,731,819,540,000
1,731,820,208,807
NO
0.010683
1,078.719622
ysi48qbpe7
one-month-from-today-will-linda-yac-mm8ze7emku
One month from today, will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter / X.com ?
null
1,729,140,259,355
1,731,819,540,000
1,731,820,252,229
YES
0.99
1,015.334815
qnc8kcqay2
one-month-from-today-will-gamestop-ir8mk6gtkq
One month from today, will Gamestop have the same CEO as today?
null
1,729,140,240,276
1,731,819,540,000
1,731,820,183,306
YES
0.99
894.987437
k4bfji9rcs
one-month-from-today-will-chat-gpt5-bxrscgww6r
One month from today, will Chat GPT-5 have been announced?
null
1,729,140,222,417
1,731,819,540,000
1,731,820,101,986
NO
0.01
894.987437
v38wyfi86d
one-month-from-today-will-jimmy-car-2qhom4htu6
One month from today, will Jimmy Carter still be alive?
null
1,729,140,211,967
1,731,819,540,000
1,731,823,560,335
YES
0.99
927.794006
s2lcifpr9x
one-month-from-today-will-trump-hav-birbclrat0
One month from today, will Trump have filed an appeal in his New York hush money trial?
null
1,729,140,194,610
1,729,828,740,000
1,729,857,625,646
NO
0.01
879.658302
4lni8wja5j
one-month-from-today-will-there-be-5l112so00p
One month from Today will there be an official release date for the next Game of Thrones book Winds of Winter?
null
1,729,140,184,967
1,731,819,540,000
1,731,823,587,975
NO
0.01
1,475.360102
hwxtxj4n3e
will-manifold-add-a-withdrawal-fee
Will Manifold add a withdrawal fee for sweepcash before the end of November?
null
1,729,136,801,954
1,729,137,540,772
1,729,137,540,772
YES
0.99
1,078.143387
il2nm3ls85
will-donald-trumps-2024-electoral-c
Will Donald Trump win more vowels in the electoral college than Kamala Harris?
null
1,729,136,643,148
1,731,572,778,599
1,731,609,195,569
YES
0.89294
1,888
ehr0buvs3l
one-week-from-today-will-kamala-be
One week from today Will Kamala be above Donald Trump on Polymarket?
null
1,729,134,412,441
1,729,742,340,000
1,729,742,957,103
NO
0
2,277.295997
vsh2ouum8r
one-month-from-today-will-israel-an-xbt32frf2f
One month from today, will Israel and Palestine have agreed to a ceasefire deal?
null
1,729,134,355,536
1,731,733,140,000
1,731,734,035,389
NO
0.012368
915
ekq1lfyhbg
will-the-margin-in-the-popular-vote
Will the margin in the popular vote in the 2024 election be larger than any individual 3rd party's vote share?
null
1,729,122,368,457
1,734,329,706,832
1,734,329,706,832
YES
0.99
968.456738
iuv70dpgb2
will-francis-ngannou-defeat-renan-f
Will Francis Ngannou defeat Renan Ferreira?
null
1,729,121,526,671
1,729,379,650,597
1,729,379,650,597
YES
0.99
9,153.478606
izbvniqfvh
will-trump-win-and-nominate-rfk-to--cash
Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position?
null
1,729,119,215,916
1,733,169,917,154
1,733,169,923,963
YES
0.8
5,054.532722
gop4ytjhgx
will-trump-win-and-nominate-rfk-to
Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position?
null
1,729,113,892,132
1,733,169,917,154
1,733,169,917,154
YES
0.952684
670,502.444486
z4uz1qiygj
will-smile-2-2024-receive-a-higher
Will "Smile 2" (2024) receive a higher CinemaScore than "Smile" (2022)? (i.e. B or above)
null
1,729,113,709,216
1,729,321,140,000
1,729,452,504,920
YES
0.98
707.214395
9ciy3lmfe2
will-smile-2-gross-20-million-durin
Will "Smile 2" gross >$20 million during its domestic opening weekend?
null
1,729,113,297,731
1,729,569,139,015
1,729,569,139,015
YES
0.99
1,132.691938
6eab2ko6zj
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-cxs8ve4yte
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Oct 17 than it closed on Oct 16?
null
1,729,109,175,996
1,729,195,348,156
1,729,195,348,156
NO
0.01
1,469.889953
ijjej5t7no
will-adelyn-moore-be-taken-to-japan
Will Adelyn Moore be taken to Japan or Paris before the end of 2024
null
1,729,108,434,148
1,735,505,047,320
1,735,505,047,320
NO
0.046685
468.112921
gsq9zsh552
will-the-nytimes-correct-their-corr
Will the NYTimes correct their correction to their article on election prediction markets by the end of the week?
null
1,729,108,298,302
1,729,115,140,180
1,729,115,140,180
YES
0.52
731
wfuxsvp0x8
given-trump-wins-all-7-swing-states
Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district?
null
1,729,106,771,735
1,731,736,740,000
1,731,737,930,737
NO
0.01
1,021.558957
840ubkno6i
will-the-super-model-call-the-presi
Will The Super Model call the presidential election correctly?
null
1,729,101,058,742
1,730,904,318,906
1,730,904,318,906
YES
0.980103
75,262.000228
0edx2luz7b
will-sheng-thao-be-charged-with-cri
Will Sheng Thao be charged with crimes in relation to the raid on her house by election day?
null
1,729,100,232,492
1,731,095,935,330
1,731,095,935,330
NO
0.010098
8,901
cls4yjpwvy
will-i-have-a-31-day-streak
Will I have a 31+ day streak?
null
1,729,095,231,261
1,731,995,940,000
1,732,021,301,575
YES
0.986617
7,780