id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 11 53 | question stringlengths 8 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 1.38M | pred_category stringclasses 15 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 39 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
lU5cnIIhuE | will-bitcoin-hit-95k-in-june-polyma | Will Bitcoin hit 95k in June? [Polymarket] | null | 1,748,800,298,083 | 1,751,378,159,580 | 1,751,378,159,580 | NO | 0.01 | 56,327.7446 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
cEzUEc0USP | will-i-recover-my-lost-clear-waterb | Will I recover my lost waterbottle by end of Manifest? | null | 1,749,230,594,101 | 1,749,447,520,736 | 1,749,447,520,736 | NO | 0.157809 | 1,758.596724 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
rc7g5nxqw2 | will-donald-trump-win-1-or-more-of | Will Donald Trump win 1 or more of the following states in the Electoral College: VA, CO, MN, NM, or NH? | null | 1,721,505,352,761 | 1,722,149,940,000 | 1,735,882,590,684 | NO | 0.352053 | 287.550128 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
7ykgwog091 | will-gixxerbrah-be-arrested-again-i | Will Gixxerbrah be arrested again in 2024? | null | 1,721,317,781,463 | 1,735,660,740,000 | 1,736,526,795,220 | NO | 0.193269 | 1,055 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
nuox4c2v42 | will-yann-lecun-remain-the-head-of | Will Yann LeCun remain the head of AI at Meta (Facebook) on July 1st 2025? | null | 1,721,665,347,948 | 1,751,405,002,470 | 1,751,405,002,470 | YES | 0.985194 | 62,369.798451 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
mSeesg7i4d | will-apocalypse-insurance-and-the-h | Will "Apocalypse insurance, and the hardline libert..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,350,444,387 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,466,098 | NO | 0.105672 | 52.097773 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
56U866ysnz | real-id-travel-requirement-postpone | REAL ID travel requirement postponed past May 7, 2025? | null | 1,744,750,933,177 | 1,746,662,340,000 | 1,746,664,535,921 | NO | 0.053713 | 69,583.368064 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
IsRNcUqOcI | iran-conducts-a-military-strike-on | Iran conducts a military strike on Qatar before June 25, 2025 | null | 1,750,694,680,942 | 1,750,697,336,224 | 1,750,697,336,224 | YES | 0.75 | 82.966986 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
awt43c1tav | will-the-vienna-hypersphere-publish | Will the Vienna Hypersphere publish >1 post on Substack or LW before 2025? | null | 1,727,648,283,432 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,742,772,940 | NO | 0.2487 | 1,396.447097 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
lhptQ9psOg | will-contrapoints-release-a-new-mai-pZuNEcA0uc | Will Contrapoints release a new mainline video essay by the end of March 2025? | null | 1,735,775,339,376 | 1,742,906,690,567 | 1,742,906,690,567 | YES | 0.994627 | 15,270.756566 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
42rv9czc04 | will-a-case-for-ai-alignment-being | Will "A case for AI alignment being difficult" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,726,162,898,527 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,306,065,867 | NO | 0.14 | 0 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
0tUgUlIAp2 | will-rpredictionmarkets-have-more-t-E6ELAdtyug | Will r/PredictionMarkets have more than 500 members by the end of 2024? | null | 1,733,104,947,265 | 1,735,651,740,000 | 1,736,385,422,756 | NO | 0.043133 | 371 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
U6LLzyuuln | will-the-2025-mit-mystery-hunt-webs | Will the 2025 MIT Mystery Hunt website (mitmh2025.com) receive a visual overhaul before kickoff? | null | 1,736,691,252,263 | 1,737,133,407,949 | 1,737,133,407,949 | NO | 0.086062 | 350.123369 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
qvl0q0iz08 | will-jd-vance-be-charged-with-a-cri-v66qmjx2kr | Will JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2024? | null | 1,721,103,913,228 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,775,800,440 | NO | 0.041174 | 386 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
9LdtcpOIZU | will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr-n9zLhl6pSd | Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2025? | null | 1,742,611,671,305 | 1,747,354,305,151 | 1,747,354,305,151 | YES | 0.197282 | 2,259 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
ovilyci3c4 | will-keir-starmer-call-any-view-of | Will Keir Starmer call any view of UK anti-immigration protestors “legitimate” or “genuine” by the end of 2024? | null | 1,723,136,311,483 | 1,735,689,540,000 | 1,735,794,107,520 | NO | 0.054507 | 33,530.033035 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE | will-trump-face-any-significant-rep | Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict? | null | 1,717,106,554,501 | 1,736,640,309,597 | 1,736,640,309,597 | NO | 0.01 | 15,069.189682 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
NNLuUqq26u | will-the-uk-government-remove-hts-f | Will the UK government remove HTS from its list of terrorist organizations by June 1st 2025? | null | 1,733,761,918,804 | 1,748,818,800,000 | 1,749,299,058,769 | NO | 0.011013 | 9,726.477395 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3 | will-jailbreaks-in-large-language-m | Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024? | null | 1,717,815,518,482 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,786,497,141 | NO | 0.059405 | 17,408.998258 | TECHNOLOGY | Emerging Technologies |
dlgctQ6zts | will-an-egg-be-worth-more-than-a-do | Will an egg be worth more than a dollar before the end of March? | null | 1,739,401,799,264 | 1,743,479,940,000 | 1,744,435,577,983 | NO | 0.016026 | 12,632.748012 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
PcqzQ552hU | will-this-question-get-50-traders | Will this question get 50 traders? | null | 1,737,657,888,687 | 1,738,299,540,000 | 1,738,323,626,788 | YES | 0.996277 | 3,154.666312 | Sports | Professional Sports |
RI8OCOdC8u | will-there-be-a-stock-market-crash | Will there be a stock market crash attributed to a Trump tariff in 2025? | null | 1,738,499,033,135 | 1,745,416,138,168 | 1,745,416,138,168 | YES | 0.989982 | 2,999.747516 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
CNh6cLRpAZ | will-the-average-bidding-price-for | Will the average bidding price for this question be more than 120 mana? | null | 1,742,177,249,624 | 1,747,371,540,000 | 1,747,610,761,475 | YES | 0.995411 | 15,014.086715 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
jnia6ihssy | will-another-medical-miracle-make-t-5tpd48o1n5 | Will "Another medical miracle" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,900,559,184 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,731,171 | NO | 0.15 | 12.040495 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
vsm0rmozrp | did-generative-ai-have-a-causal-eff | Did generative AI have a causal effect on the major outage generated by Crowdstrike? | null | 1,721,421,318,471 | 1,735,804,740,000 | 1,736,179,509,493 | NO | 0.038208 | 5,216.14193 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
vc92lm2gif | polymarket-to-emergency-resolve-a-m | Polymarket to Emergency Resolve a market to overturn a UMA decision in 2024? | null | 1,724,634,548,018 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,750,483,400 | NO | 0.026264 | 5,516 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qgQUdRcl0c | pope-francis-say-urbi-et-orbi-in-pu | Pope Francis say 'Urbi et Orbi' in public this Easter? | null | 1,744,884,613,368 | 1,745,150,488,484 | 1,745,150,488,484 | YES | 0.99 | 1,198.729468 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
A0yIn2ELQE | will-all-individual-yes-traders-in | Will all individual "YES" traders in this market a unique MAX PAYOUT when this market closes? | null | 1,742,847,572,238 | 1,743,461,940,000 | 1,743,474,168,019 | NO | 0.025377 | 11,963.913446 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
hRllPtZppZ | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-LsOIlCQqI6 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 198 and 199? | null | 1,742,916,990,070 | 1,743,528,841,937 | 1,743,528,844,829 | NO | 0.24565 | 85 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
av7R6n2rUOMrPTjt9E5b | will-lighthaven-be-capable-of-hosti | Will Lighthaven be capable of hosting a Manifest/LessOnline style event in June 2025? | null | 1,718,001,258,281 | 1,748,599,843,783 | 1,748,599,843,783 | YES | 0.989913 | 12,735.023195 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
LPEZU6ZQtC | will-openai-reference-anthropics-mo | Will OpenAI Reference Anthropic’s Model Context Protocol (MCP) by the End of 2025? | null | 1,732,588,409,367 | 1,743,028,939,354 | 1,743,028,939,354 | YES | 0.956631 | 7,052.854101 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
z08qm5fsvu | will-nvidia-nvda-end-22-at-or-above | Will Nvidia NVDA end 2/2 at or above $222 USD per share? | null | 1,719,152,076,271 | 1,738,558,740,000 | 1,738,645,437,871 | NO | 0.009815 | 2,157.180436 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
suSNN9LpZS | will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-stor-OR98LELzzl | Will a tropical or subtropical storm be named Tony in 2024? | null | 1,731,622,787,024 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,729,717,997 | NO | 0.011613 | 24,844.640444 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
5v1sik39l5 | will-the-supreme-court-strike-down-8y7p8a3krk | Will the Supreme Court strike down the Texas age verification law for online content? | null | 1,723,261,490,395 | 1,751,439,540,000 | 1,751,815,406,066 | NO | 0.01 | 10,817.87836 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
sLuUQcU06c | -2024-nfl-will-any-week-18-game-end | 🏈 2024 NFL: Will any Week 18 game end in Scorigami? | null | 1,734,307,416,104 | 1,736,139,540,000 | 1,736,139,739,486 | NO | 0.06001 | 430 | Sports | Professional Sports |
QCSdtut89y | will-both-houses-of-the-missouri-st | Will both houses of the Missouri legislature pass a stadium bill by June 31, 2025 for the Kansas City Chiefs or Royals? | null | 1,747,433,324,061 | 1,750,445,408,967 | 1,750,445,408,967 | YES | 0.950723 | 37,859.408613 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
U2spctlyEu | will-trump-tweet-about-zohran-mamda | Will Trump tweet about Zohran Mamdani in June? | null | 1,750,874,684,458 | 1,751,385,588,823 | 1,751,385,588,823 | NO | 0.004847 | 4,029.615644 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
yQynENnEON | will-jd-vance-meet-pope-leo-in-2025 | Will JD Vance meet Pope Leo before July 1st | null | 1,746,749,488,051 | 1,747,654,872,803 | 1,747,654,872,803 | YES | 0.997228 | 13,836.336436 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
RdnQQRP8LR | will-this-question-get-20-traders-b | Will this question get 20 traders by June 1st? | null | 1,748,289,180,166 | 1,748,822,340,000 | 1,748,829,450,059 | NO | 0.15 | 445.247282 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
tsc6yPOA0Q | will-i-lift-weights-today-0Uu0p6zp0A | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,739,166,473,727 | 1,739,249,940,000 | 1,739,262,672,619 | NO | 0.31402 | 135 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
f34ikqln6c | will-at-least-100-israelis-or-pales | Will at least 100 Israelis or Palestinians be killed by Iranian missiles before 2025? | null | 1,727,808,746,123 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,742,103,944 | NO | 0.066711 | 674.400551 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
8qRn8OAyPp | will-sp-500-emini-futures-go-limit | Will S&P 500 e-mini futures go limit up or down in the Sunday night session 2025-04-06? | null | 1,743,804,874,164 | 1,744,049,965,932 | 1,744,049,965,932 | NO | 0.010189 | 15,145.750376 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
PqNsu5PIUp | will-i-lift-weights-today-EZgNps850R | Will I lift weights today? | null | 1,739,338,288,996 | 1,739,422,740,000 | 1,739,431,055,226 | NO | 0.229866 | 123.520338 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
szsuZ26tUQ | will-starship-flight-7-fly-before-n | Will Starship Flight 7 fly before New Glenn’s Maiden flight? | null | 1,735,931,664,969 | 1,737,028,647,304 | 1,737,028,647,304 | NO | 0.006219 | 64,579.644696 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
cUNl9Z2ScI | will-simmi-rejoin-kalshi-or-houseco | Will Simmi rejoin Kalshi or Housecord Discord Servers by Feb 1 2025? | null | 1,737,269,980,914 | 1,737,272,412,655 | 1,737,272,412,655 | YES | 0.987237 | 2,011.569989 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
uQgNOPOI6n | will-laura-loomer-get-her-bluecheck | Will Laura Loomer get her bluecheck back by Friday? | null | 1,735,552,650,579 | 1,735,975,477,897 | 1,735,975,477,897 | NO | 0.01 | 1,123.645873 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
2ibuuk0l61 | will-land-of-bad-receive-a-nominati | Will 'Land of Bad' receive a nomination for Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards? | null | 1,721,453,728,556 | 1,740,372,491,536 | 1,740,372,491,536 | NO | 0.01 | 897.24346 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
Rnz8yAPLPQ | will-i-be-able-to-download-tiktok-o | Will I be able to download TikTok on the Google Play store and have it function normally by the end of January? | null | 1,737,266,582,837 | 1,737,314,024,133 | 1,737,314,024,133 | YES | 0.962033 | 5,554.683023 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
spvmebfeu2 | will-my-first-dnd-campaign-survive | Will my first DnD campaign survive until 2025? | null | 1,728,833,638,423 | 1,735,943,367,032 | 1,735,943,367,032 | YES | 0.372036 | 370 | Entertainment | Gaming |
IyZEcILE26 | will-twitch-pay-the-withheld-earnin | Will Twitch pay the withheld earnings to Russian streamers in full by June 2025 | null | 1,735,630,147,128 | 1,751,068,800,000 | 1,751,291,246,683 | NO | 0.010948 | 939.516575 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
en29wk5qxy | will-joseph-anderson-release-his-hi-kwsbpb9idd | Will Joseph Anderson release his highly anticipated Witcher 3 review before the end of August? | null | 1,719,782,486,381 | 1,743,782,603,553 | 1,743,782,603,553 | YES | 0.947987 | 2,939.457752 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
hOzN0sO5u6 | daily-coinflip-nytAQZIN0c | Daily coinflip | null | 1,746,253,057,114 | 1,746,417,540,000 | 1,746,425,241,742 | NO | 0.51 | 7,135.674701 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
Lz5qsg09h5 | kai-and-speed-win-fortnite-today-fe | Kai and Speed win Fortnite today? (Febuary 4th Eastern Time) | null | 1,738,693,449,988 | 1,738,763,749,216 | 1,738,763,749,216 | NO | 0.01 | 1,438.898676 | Entertainment | Gaming |
QRS0Z5cPq0 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-ClSn9t8sgc | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 82 and 83? | null | 1,748,839,628,117 | 1,749,444,420,000 | 1,749,535,248,482 | NO | 0.161225 | 2,099.095629 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
2ZS0858su5 | will-alien-life-be-discovered-on-eu | Will Alien Life be discovered on Europa before June 30? | null | 1,750,542,308,340 | 1,751,291,953,248 | 1,751,291,953,248 | NO | 0.012175 | 1,873.197161 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
ugy5SlSsE2 | willl-bryan-caplan-author-of-dont-b | Willl Bryan Caplan, author of "Don't be a Feminist", write about Gisèle Pelicot before May? | null | 1,734,628,707,741 | 1,746,144,000,000 | 1,746,152,851,559 | NO | 0.029174 | 598.184486 | Books & Literature | Authors |
nydyCP0phA | will-i-meet-the-person-that-i-like | Will I meet the person that I like at MOP 2025? | null | 1,742,262,499,282 | 1,745,252,970,713 | 1,745,378,806,603 | YES | 0.211989 | 4,484.587862 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
QdpyOs0Q5t | will-eric-adams-have-an-approval-ra | Will Eric Adams have an approval rating under 20% by June? | null | 1,739,236,115,804 | 1,741,212,149,095 | 1,741,212,149,095 | YES | 0.99 | 1,148.911546 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
p7hyipilsj | will-owen-siderius-win-nordiq-canad | Will Owen Siderius win Nordiq Canada ski nationals in 2024 | null | 1,727,982,695,491 | 1,741,665,540,000 | 1,743,194,418,776 | NO | 0.452489 | 12 | Sports | Individual Sports |
uySIyq9OlQ | will-hasan-be-banned-from-twitch-fo--cash | Will Hasan be banned from Twitch for at least 1 day by the end of 2024? | null | 1,729,874,455,439 | 1,735,671,726,376 | 1,735,761,891,416 | NO | 0.014951 | 1,276.721942 | Entertainment | Gaming |
OPNqOyPO60 | will-the-faas-primary-warning-syste | Will the FAA's primary warning system, NOTAM, be out for more than a day? | null | 1,738,506,825,057 | 1,738,532,258,557 | 1,738,532,258,557 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
yZ9zQu6Z6t | president-trump-will-release-jfk-fi | President Trump will release JFK files within the first week of the presidency? | null | 1,731,055,108,033 | 1,738,079,183,616 | 1,738,079,190,079 | NO | 0.01 | 2,869.916986 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
wiphjj61eq | will-the-biden-government-contract | Will the Biden government contract SpaceX to provide rural America with internet? | null | 1,722,270,473,438 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,761,101,245 | NO | 0.05 | 4,215.788348 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
g92z0ZC9Ip | will-david-lynch-be-alive-at-the-en-E8O2RqLnRn | Will David Lynch be alive at the end of 2025? | null | 1,735,776,156,670 | 1,737,052,312,594 | 1,737,052,312,594 | NO | 0.01 | 1,122.251588 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
EQ2d2LLL68 | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-5yqqC5S69S | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Apr 7 than it closed on Apr 4? | null | 1,744,013,119,587 | 1,744,057,483,943 | 1,744,057,483,943 | NO | 0.01 | 58,863.757028 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QncIcO8sng | will-grok-3-top-the-chatbot-leaderb | Will Grok 3 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard? | null | 1,738,937,105,234 | 1,739,863,737,372 | 1,739,863,737,372 | YES | 0.99 | 100,815.874163 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
zo6v3r95mq | will-china-announce-the-establishme | Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024? | null | 1,725,646,149,450 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,736,120,160,719 | NO | 0.13962 | 3,149.359115 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
tPs9LIuEhl | trumps-january-10-sentencing-pushed | Trump's January 10 sentencing pushed back? | null | 1,736,323,093,721 | 1,736,530,423,845 | 1,736,530,423,845 | NO | 0.01 | 943.134672 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
yhtdqmm84m | will-i-be-an-author-on-a-paper-acce | Will I be an author on a paper accepted to an academic conference in 2024? | null | 1,718,679,465,204 | 1,735,703,820,000 | 1,735,725,842,628 | YES | 0.964068 | 727.359107 | Books & Literature | Authors |
gyQlIqyAIR | bitcoin-hits-87k-before-97k | Bitcoin hits $87k before $97k? | null | 1,745,359,596,574 | 1,746,121,861,646 | 1,746,121,861,646 | NO | 0.01 | 19,321.641269 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
QNH4iBrVw4mRoymoUzXX | will-wonderful-precure-introduce-a | Will Wonderful Precure introduce a third major male Cure? | null | 1,716,212,414,731 | 1,737,864,533,887 | 1,737,864,533,887 | NO | 0.442693 | 478.593897 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
goszckhgwm | will-candace-owens-be-subpoenaed-or | Will Candace Owens be subpoenaed or indicted by the USA government by the end of 2024? | null | 1,725,738,997,458 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,792,247,329 | NO | 0.022438 | 570.353215 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
gzugN292RN | next-pope-has-a-diacritic-in-their | Next Pope has a diacritic in their name? | null | 1,745,753,130,568 | 1,746,975,919,145 | 1,746,975,919,145 | NO | 0.01 | 1,875.29519 | Politics | Government Structure |
uR8g2LqhIA | se-hizo-honduras-un-pais-mas-autori | ¿Se hizo Honduras un país más autoritario en 2024? / Did Honduras become more authoritarian in 2024? | null | 1,737,305,725,578 | 1,740,693,488,401 | 1,740,693,488,401 | NO | 0.145507 | 179 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
8gLgq9yd8d | will-the-manifold-office-lock-be-fi | Will the Manifold office lock be fixed before 5pm? | null | 1,738,194,923,189 | 1,738,197,416,747 | 1,738,197,425,772 | YES | 0.88 | 1,805.631849 | Technology | Computing & Software |
A2IcCh5Sc8 | will-pope-francis-watch-the-nintend | Will Pope Francis watch the Nintendo Switch 2 Nintendo Direct? | null | 1,743,518,185,105 | 1,743,738,459,123 | 1,743,738,459,123 | NO | 0.01 | 955.368341 | Entertainment | Gaming |
2bhb5wooau | will-ethbtc-trade-below-002500-befo | Will ETH/BTC trade below 0.02500 before the end of 2024? | null | 1,726,633,166,332 | 1,735,714,623,965 | 1,735,714,638,948 | NO | 0.057992 | 4,410.902531 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
LUddS6RCS2 | will-trump-appoint-elbridge-cooley | Will Trump appoint Elbridge Colby Secretary of Defense or National Security Advisor | null | 1,731,299,607,315 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,739,896,147,040 | NO | 0.312351 | 154.737346 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
sjn5grzx24 | will-there-be-a-new-deadlock-charac | Will there be a new Deadlock character released before the end of the year? | null | 1,728,628,964,306 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,972,803,483 | YES | 0.917471 | 262 | Entertainment | Gaming |
2ktq82acu2 | will-nintendos-project-rockstock-la | Will Nintendo's Project Rockstock launch before the release of the Nintendo Switch 2? | null | 1,729,605,230,808 | 1,749,461,315,872 | 1,749,461,315,872 | NO | 0.01 | 907.340378 | Gaming | Gaming Platforms |
9LCl2QUOnE | kilmar-armando-abrego-garcia-confir | Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia confirmed alive on or before May 6? | null | 1,744,658,864,430 | 1,744,938,404,753 | 1,744,938,404,753 | YES | 0.883587 | 14,536.627535 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1mcb0lemkm | will-section-174-be-reverted-in-202 | Will Section 174 Allow Full Expensing of SWE Salaries for R&E in 2025? | null | 1,722,011,124,904 | 1,751,729,505,190 | 1,751,729,505,190 | YES | 0.839301 | 1,287 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
yx7xo9clf2 | will-measuring-and-improving-the-fa | Will "Measuring and Improving the Faithfulness of M..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,721,654,138,369 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,965,342,704 | NO | 0.14 | 0 | Technology | Computing & Software |
zy2Sg8zgEL | will-there-be-a-way-to-view-your-to | Will there be a way to view your total received comment likes on your profile by June 2025? | null | 1,731,022,633,275 | 1,748,818,740,000 | 1,748,819,866,590 | NO | 0.01 | 974.504485 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
CA2tht8PyN | trump-declares-martial-law-on-420 | Trump declares martial law on 4/20? | null | 1,742,757,461,849 | 1,745,193,540,000 | 1,745,280,141,416 | NO | 0.01 | 4,730.458189 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
7jn5aDadcM | will-why-im-joining-anthropic-make | Will "Why I'm joining Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,734,809,148,593 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,963,623,013 | NO | 0.1 | 38.883292 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
ectafw6spf | will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-fc04e26738c6--cash | Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2025? | null | 1,726,715,563,426 | 1,735,752,347,744 | 1,735,845,827,111 | NO | 0.004212 | 2,998.633421 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
uQQ0UELRzL | if-there-is-an-offered-ceasefire-an | If there is an offered ceasefire and Russia doesn't accept, will the US pressure Russia in any way April 30th? | null | 1,741,859,142,965 | 1,746,053,940,000 | 1,746,101,967,762 | NO | 0.09184 | 16,881.391488 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
9SI5S2sERA | will-the-movie-wicked-hit-1-billion | Will the movie “wicked” hit 1 Billion in the box office? | null | 1,732,065,866,588 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,741,138,700,911 | NO | 0.01 | 1,060.133176 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
lqgl3op27t | will-tesla-cease-to-be-the-most-val-w9d4l5y1al | Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2024? | null | 1,720,200,936,812 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,721,434,221 | NO | 0.033683 | 640 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
PmXBSOAkO1ZGfbMGJSEv | will-bayern-munich-win-the-202425-c | Will Bayern Munich win the 2024/25 Champions League | null | 1,714,918,280,198 | 1,745,435,409,663 | 1,745,435,409,663 | NO | 0.01 | 1,201.887458 | Sports | Professional Sports |
LESsgut8UU | will-british-airways-announce-effec | Will British Airways announce effectively lower thresholds for achieving status? | null | 1,737,986,801,008 | 1,738,755,134,017 | 1,738,755,134,017 | YES | 0.84 | 129.128785 | Finance | Banking & Financial Services |
hh0chQ5CAO | will-the-us-10year-treasury-note-ex | Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury note exceed 4.5% at any point before July 28, 2025? | null | 1,745,961,317,606 | 1,747,863,190,067 | 1,747,863,194,214 | YES | 0.522359 | 25.42358 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
buismz3qc2 | will-joe-biden-ultimately-give-jimm | Will Joe Biden ultimately give Jimmy Carter's eulogy, as per Carter's request? | null | 1,721,678,625,149 | 1,737,250,745,715 | 1,737,250,745,715 | YES | 0.99 | 11,167.61838 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
PQR8As55lu | will-the-hpmor-anniversary-party-in | Will the HPMOR anniversary party in Moscow be larger than the HPMOR anniversary party in Berkeley? | null | 1,740,689,151,108 | 1,742,185,626,583 | 1,742,185,626,583 | YES | 0.816688 | 565.999309 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
dd6P0IyLAR | will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-united-5L0tdy5RAO | Will TikTok be banned in the United States for the majority of the population by the end of 2025? | null | 1,735,995,112,349 | 1,738,215,341,269 | 1,738,215,341,269 | YES | 0.97 | 34,530.693394 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
n2UdcP0ggI | israels-current-operations-against | Israel's current operations against Iran last more than 14 days? | null | 1,749,814,397,245 | 1,750,748,796,041 | 1,750,748,796,041 | NO | 0.570857 | 3,562.07572 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
uqR8yPERz6 | celac-leaders-summit-in-honduras-re | CELAC leaders' summit in Honduras results in new climate change initiative by April 13, 2025 | null | 1,744,164,648,404 | 1,744,588,740,000 | 1,744,595,532,478 | NO | 0.029542 | 501 | Geopolitics | Regional Affairs |
s6sQ62d5PZ | holy-shit-my-reaction-to-deepseek-r | "Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months? | null | 1,737,984,860,605 | 1,751,043,540,000 | 1,751,083,798,743 | NO | 0.014313 | 23,385.750554 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
ESzClcS2II | will-bitcoin-cross-90000-this-month | Will bitcoin cross 90,000 $ this month ? | null | 1,743,505,441,707 | 1,745,373,241,332 | 1,745,373,241,332 | YES | 0.980211 | 65,073.017158 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.