id stringlengths 9 20 | slug stringlengths 11 53 | question stringlengths 8 120 | firstGroup float64 | createdTime int64 1,715B 1,752B | closeTime int64 1,717B 1,752B | resolvedTime int64 1,736B 1,752B | resolution stringclasses 2 values | resolutionProbability float64 0 1 | volume float64 0 1.38M | pred_category stringclasses 15 values | pred_subcategory stringclasses 39 values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6UpESdOc8C | will-polymarkets-monthly-volume-dec | Will Polymarket’s monthly volume decline for three months straight? | null | 1,739,280,629,418 | 1,743,483,021,523 | 1,743,483,021,523 | NO | 0.01 | 9,790.802149 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
69hCA9up9Z | will-the-next-pope-take-a-first-tim | Will the next Pope take a first time name? | null | 1,745,336,735,542 | 1,746,724,812,244 | 1,746,724,812,244 | NO | 0.014357 | 1,631.834719 | Politics | Government Structure |
59uZNlNd02 | will-i-double-my-net-worth-by-april | Will I double my net worth by April 1st, 2025? | null | 1,737,986,639,970 | 1,743,566,340,000 | 1,743,711,790,975 | NO | 0.010224 | 1,026.355604 | Finance | Personal Finance |
OPl99N5Aun | will-the-philadelphia-eagles-swoop-IAPZqhzypP--cash | Super Bowl LIX: Will the Philadelphia Eagles win? | null | 1,738,292,208,068 | 1,739,157,678,861 | 1,739,159,229,100 | YES | 0.992806 | 7,819.037493 | Sports | Professional Sports |
nAvTzimJUQkew3sqpOLU | will-the-median-home-sold-price-in | Will the median home sold price in San Francisco be higher in April 2025 than April 2024? | null | 1,715,153,313,684 | 1,747,378,740,000 | 1,750,217,842,103 | YES | 0.674764 | 4,429.837427 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
Ic520qIRpQ | will-wicked-2024-gross-750-million | Will "Wicked" (2024) gross >$750 million? (worldwide) | null | 1,732,123,713,490 | 1,744,922,131,076 | 1,744,922,131,076 | YES | 0.998859 | 5,538.454746 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
tstNs5tsnt | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-gQtzNpLUEA | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 18 than it closed on Feb 14? | null | 1,739,795,485,064 | 1,739,912,415,272 | 1,739,912,415,272 | YES | 0.973866 | 8,626.005244 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Q8h5EunUPl | will-israel-attack-greta-thunbergs | Will Israel attack Greta Thunberg's ship? | null | 1,748,976,264,189 | 1,749,476,239,229 | 1,749,567,387,123 | NO | 0.150723 | 112,330.464299 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
StzOQ85yls | tariffs-on-china-above-150-by-end-o | Tariffs on China above 150% by end of June | null | 1,744,371,405,892 | 1,751,327,940,000 | 1,751,336,499,839 | NO | 0.027481 | 3,581.163106 | Finance | Trade & Economics |
QuNytU9Zz9 | will-any-state-have-more-than-30000 | Will any state have more than 300,000 customers without power before the end of 2024? | null | 1,732,233,607,205 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,742,122,406 | NO | 0.024602 | 6,394.432731 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
PZNEuPI2Cn | national-injunctions-banned-by-the | National injunctions banned by the Supreme Court? | null | 1,747,323,172,934 | 1,751,037,213,191 | 1,751,037,213,191 | YES | 0.266747 | 2,202.970056 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
AEcPqhCc66 | safa-brian-dies-from-a-cylingrelate | Safa Brian dies from a cycling-related accident before 2026? | null | 1,732,288,160,391 | 1,735,689,600,000 | 1,735,716,477,165 | NO | 0.259877 | 792 | Sports | Individual Sports |
tLI0E0R6N9 | will-1-usd-be-worth-1500-south-kore | Will 1 USD be worth 1500 South Korean Won before the end of January 2025? | null | 1,735,534,714,816 | 1,738,441,521,895 | 1,738,441,521,895 | NO | 0.01 | 14,356.965366 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
2052tsOhZU | will-luka-doncic-get-a-triple-doubl | Will Luka Dončić get a Triple Double tonight? | null | 1,739,215,982,971 | 1,739,282,050,272 | 1,739,282,050,272 | NO | 0.01 | 8,969.874371 | Sports | Individual Sports |
fi8IRWNAdtZhkv6WENU9 | will-jimmy-carter-outlive-noam-chom | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Noam Chomsky? | null | 1,715,466,037,859 | 1,737,263,433,399 | 1,737,263,433,399 | NO | 0.007622 | 7,092.136158 | Celebrity & Pop Culture | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
luLghNIQ0Q | tug-of-war-nNL5PS8Qcg | Tug of war | null | 1,742,217,678,578 | 1,742,875,140,000 | 1,742,918,030,080 | NO | 0.11 | 342.645523 | Sports | Team Sports |
06dEOAdtgU | will-any-ai-get-a-score-of-at-least | Will any AI get a score of at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark before March 11, 2025? | null | 1,738,605,663,614 | 1,741,640,340,000 | 1,741,706,025,253 | NO | 0.01 | 1,293.521979 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
gR89Q6dhdI | will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-arrested-befo | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be arrested before 2026? | null | 1,733,242,131,881 | 1,737,002,035,869 | 1,737,002,035,869 | YES | 0.988101 | 22,590.433058 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
EPyC8lOPls | ronen-bar-removed-as-shin-bet-chief | Ronen Bar removed as Shin Bet chief before April 30, 2025 | null | 1,742,318,423,938 | 1,745,971,200,000 | 1,746,001,785,216 | NO | 0.01 | 1,132.188062 | Politics | Government Structure |
c8LO9nEng5 | ukraine-conducts-military-action-in | Ukraine conducts military action in Moscow on May 9, 2025 | null | 1,746,539,976,965 | 1,746,799,140,000 | 1,749,539,457,792 | NO | 0.07038 | 2,186.771669 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
6uSNl6p06h | will-trump-go-on-snl-before-the-ina | Will Trump go on SNL before the inauguration? | null | 1,731,968,066,999 | 1,737,359,940,000 | 1,737,388,250,293 | NO | 0.010268 | 940 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
T5RzkFcNpR | will-link-a-community-alert-about-z | Will "[Link] A community alert about Ziz" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,733,566,696,980 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,738,964,425,534 | NO | 0.03 | 317.158267 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
dCdc8sLCRl | xrp-price-exceeds-250-before-july-2 | XRP price exceeds $2.50 before July 2, 2025 | null | 1,748,894,109,042 | 1,751,414,340,000 | 1,751,471,106,940 | NO | 0.01 | 1,349.982746 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
p9g8CdAES8 | will-trump-impose-any-sort-of-tarif | Will Trump impose any sort of Tariff on Canada by the end of February? | null | 1,737,436,953,871 | 1,740,709,920,000 | 1,741,307,471,032 | NO | 0.01426 | 7,332.969226 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
9y1gxuntth | will-openai-dissolve-by-july-2025 | Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025? | null | 1,719,347,314,275 | 1,751,432,340,000 | 1,751,473,381,109 | NO | 0.010844 | 13,443.801707 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
phS96cA6Is | will-i-get-hired-by-one-of-the-agi | Will I get hired by one of the AGI labs in the next 5 years? | null | 1,738,521,863,863 | 1,749,584,004,173 | 1,749,584,004,173 | YES | 0.542843 | 29.751359 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
szr361vzdf | will-rfk-jr-get-any-electoral-colle | Will RFK Jr. get any electoral college votes? | null | 1,723,406,689,999 | 1,735,882,805,036 | 1,735,882,805,036 | NO | 0.008422 | 17,582.109019 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
bbd1jsqpam | will-a-new-donald-trump-affair-be-u | Will a new Donald Trump affair be uncovered before March 1st, 2025? | null | 1,726,253,336,207 | 1,740,884,340,000 | 1,741,698,362,098 | NO | 0.010064 | 15,091.722522 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
m71j0802uu | usa-will-there-be-fatal-casualties-gzfiru9bwz | USA: Will there be fatal casualties of the Inauguration Day? | null | 1,721,577,922,049 | 1,737,500,340,000 | 1,737,502,463,229 | NO | 0.01 | 11,372.460178 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
SPpEUncuNP | will-mitprimes-release-decisions-by | Will MIT-PRIMES release decisions by January 10th? | null | 1,736,229,056,109 | 1,736,540,146,423 | 1,736,540,146,423 | YES | 0.393214 | 452.727181 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
AyzOstl6gl | will-anyone-with-a-net-worth-below | Will anyone with a net worth below $1 Million Mana win Masters League in April? | null | 1,744,674,131,296 | 1,745,881,140,000 | 1,746,120,461,932 | NO | 0.175867 | 270.433144 | Sports | Professional Sports |
0xjkk2rro8 | will-alignment-grantmaking-is-fundi | Will "Alignment Grantmaking is Funding-Limited Righ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,720,793,005,360 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,348,656 | NO | 0.092482 | 500 | Technology | Internet & Digital Services |
CtuCUQyO9h | will-deepseekr1-beat-o1-on-livebenc | Will Deepseek-R1 beat o1 on LiveBench? | null | 1,737,394,152,589 | 1,737,402,886,489 | 1,737,402,886,489 | NO | 0.441379 | 125 | Technology | Computing & Software |
L98Lp6t0Z6 | will-sam-fender-play-glastonbury-20 | Will Sam Fender play Glastonbury 2025? | null | 1,734,051,879,420 | 1,751,237,940,000 | 1,751,383,526,756 | NO | 0.10373 | 2,238.548687 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
A6npQIlh5u | will-openai-release-o3-pro-mode-thi-qOhIqpyLRq | Will OpenAI release o3 pro mode this month? | null | 1,748,973,306,792 | 1,749,757,613,231 | 1,749,757,613,231 | YES | 0.99 | 1,662.656613 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
NNgqsS8NAL | will-jeanmarie-le-pen-survive-until-CQ2N9LlAc6 | Will Jean-Marie Le Pen survive until the end of 2024? | null | 1,731,506,066,936 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,736,331,776 | YES | 0.967499 | 655 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
NAZS5yZ9EL | free-money-cQ25tpLdZ8 | free money | null | 1,746,716,379,157 | 1,746,731,705,576 | 1,746,731,705,576 | YES | 0.947067 | 998.90596 | Finance | Personal Finance |
qtRPSg8U5z | cavs-and-thunder-to-win-a-combined | Cavs and Thunder to win a combined 140 games in 2024-25 Regular Season? | null | 1,736,125,570,037 | 1,742,444,712,266 | 1,742,444,712,266 | NO | 0.01 | 894.987437 | Sports | Professional sports |
cUgyIPsSz2 | will-andrew-tate-meet-in-person-wit-tQ0Ons2LhZ | Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Musk within 1 week [March 6]? - photo/video | null | 1,740,676,821,289 | 1,741,334,340,000 | 1,741,359,536,250 | NO | 0.03207 | 17,408.218495 | Celebrity & Pop Culture | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
LuLstpdsEZ | will-mike-duncans-martian-revolutio | Will Mike Duncan's Martian Revolution (Season 11 of Revolutions) end with a military dictatorship on Mars? | null | 1,731,207,303,716 | 1,749,789,572,921 | 1,749,789,572,921 | NO | 0.167584 | 311.46891 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
On5tNsSIyU | will-there-be-any-break-between-one-ntdRtZ9sgN | Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1153 and 1154? | null | 1,750,701,278,961 | 1,751,241,540,000 | 1,751,246,176,827 | YES | 0.756853 | 14,234.266188 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
g0s8j8znb7 | will-gta6-be-delayed | Will GTA6 be delayed? | null | 1,726,101,189,130 | 1,748,229,883,524 | 1,748,229,883,524 | YES | 0.99 | 2,472.176097 | Entertainment | Gaming |
bbe47ykjfw | will-barron-trump-join-a-fraternity | Will Barron Trump join a fraternity at NYU during his freshman year? | null | 1,725,658,566,061 | 1,748,442,744,556 | 1,748,442,744,556 | NO | 0.035089 | 570 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
x11yusow3i | will-taylor-swift-announce-new-conc | Will Taylor Swift announce new concerts in Vienna until 2026? | null | 1,725,212,889,768 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,739,196,899,574 | NO | 0.831843 | 125 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
n6gLAQqSlS | no-new-experimental-evidence-for-ro | No new experimental evidence for Roger Penrose's Orchestrated Objective Reduction theory by 2025-05-20 | null | 1,732,109,957,916 | 1,747,810,740,000 | 1,748,069,422,356 | YES | 0.99 | 949.704036 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
y6ZZn5C5Sp | babcock-international-babl-up-10-by | Babcock International (BAB.L) up 10% by May 31, 2025? | null | 1,746,374,491,557 | 1,748,735,940,000 | 1,748,853,060,506 | YES | 0.975442 | 923.661271 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
l8NUULdE0z | will-novak-djokovic-be-a-finalist-a | Will Novak Djokovic be a finalist at the 2025 Australian Open? | null | 1,736,778,335,165 | 1,737,709,288,079 | 1,737,709,288,079 | NO | 0.003828 | 1,858.358214 | Sports | Individual Sports |
RsR69tsnyE | i-walk-5000-steps-on-5-days-this-ri | I walk 5,000+ steps on 5+ days this week? | null | 1,744,552,969,194 | 1,745,180,010,429 | 1,745,180,010,429 | YES | 0.958129 | 556.218266 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
p57a5ul0t7 | will-iran-announce-it-is-a-nuclear | Will Iran announce it is a nuclear state by end of 2024? | null | 1,728,315,571,238 | 1,735,689,639,668 | 1,735,689,639,668 | NO | 0.030452 | 2,625 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
hhPI0Zn86c | nato-raises-defence-spending-target | NATO raises defence spending target above 2% GDP by July 2025 | null | 1,734,942,940,208 | 1,750,925,220,271 | 1,750,925,220,271 | YES | 0.929976 | 408.341201 | Geopolitics | International Relations |
pct57l6lzx | will-biden-pardon-anyone-within-1-m | Will Biden pardon anyone with 1 month or less until he leaves office? | null | 1,729,448,938,607 | 1,737,435,540,000 | 1,737,436,250,707 | YES | 0.993618 | 2,429.083312 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
5cluIugdCs | will-sam-altman-give-testimony-to-e-2ndSCy5SCn | Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2025? | null | 1,735,953,272,895 | 1,750,037,166,371 | 1,750,037,166,371 | YES | 0.96691 | 513.498325 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
hp7eh9rarq | will-kendrick-perform-not-like-us-a | Will Kendrick perform Not Like Us at the next Superbowl Halftime show? | null | 1,726,025,280,469 | 1,742,235,972,091 | 1,742,235,972,091 | YES | 0.99 | 1,930.731023 | Entertainment | Music & Audio |
2hpPI8nsIg | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-Cyq2yh6U2n | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb 5 than it closed on Feb 4? | null | 1,738,767,057,010 | 1,738,789,293,600 | 1,738,789,293,600 | YES | 0.936628 | 4,908.333572 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
6gQP628qQl | daily-coinflip-uzQPZI5Usz | Daily Coinflip | null | 1,751,457,432,706 | 1,751,601,540,000 | 1,751,650,743,233 | YES | 0.505021 | 3,186.980449 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
9Pdl2Ayu5s | 20251220-OR9s0sSUUC | 在当前冲突背景下，以色列是否会在2025年12月20日之前对伊朗进行新的空袭？ | null | 1,750,756,810,029 | 1,750,756,838,208 | 1,750,756,838,208 | YES | 0.525505 | 15 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
zdirm4648 | will-an-unmitigated-vulnerability-b | Will an un-mitigated vulnerability be found in Intel's Raptor Lake CPUs before the end of 2025? | null | 1,723,587,112,938 | 1,747,214,652,114 | 1,747,214,652,114 | YES | 0.85 | 386.181216 | Technology | Mobile & Consumer Electronics |
UN92gCN8Nz | is-squid-games-season-1-better-than | Is Squid Games Season 1 better than Season 2? | null | 1,735,313,475,745 | 1,740,002,340,000 | 1,740,149,422,185 | YES | 0.989993 | 1,503.360253 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
d39o1l4wnq | will-meta-reach-700-by-eoy | Will META reach $700 by EOY? | null | 1,728,311,466,424 | 1,735,642,740,000 | 1,735,824,804,361 | NO | 0.028485 | 484 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
iqliqhey5n | will-the-texas-longhorns-make-it-to | Will the Texas Longhorns make it to the CFP final? | null | 1,729,455,030,534 | 1,736,573,400,000 | 1,736,575,126,000 | NO | 0.01 | 2,646.066464 | Sports | Team Sports |
Octct9Ry9p | will-kanye-release-a-coin-before-th | Will kanye release a coin before the new pope releases? | null | 1,740,419,921,594 | 1,746,721,391,344 | 1,746,721,391,344 | NO | 0.01 | 1,129.058927 | Entertainment | Celebrity & Pop Culture |
lguhQOqlhS | will-i-come-first-in-my-league | Will I come first in my League | null | 1,747,032,174,873 | 1,748,889,394,997 | 1,748,889,394,997 | YES | 0.99 | 1,041.8625 | Sports | Sports Culture & Recreation |
piap8xqsiu | 3rd-assassination-attempt-on-donald | 3rd assassination attempt on Donald Trump? | null | 1,726,450,842,842 | 1,738,396,740,000 | 1,738,437,594,003 | NO | 0.01 | 504,483.962941 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ytNpORdlQQ | will-the-minnesota-assassin-be-tied | Will the Minnesota Assassin be tied to rightwing politics? | null | 1,749,922,964,898 | 1,749,951,803,701 | 1,749,951,803,701 | YES | 0.970642 | 475 | Politics | Political Parties & Ideologies |
gqCRyUQ220 | la-mayor-karen-bass-ousted-by-end-o | LA Mayor Karen Bass ousted by end of Feb? | null | 1,737,063,315,673 | 1,740,815,940,000 | 1,740,876,776,800 | NO | 0.01 | 1,210.457217 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
1h8q34oqdu | trump-to-impose-60-tariff-on-china | Trump to impose 60% tariff on China in first year? | null | 1,722,688,245,710 | 1,747,043,720,530 | 1,747,043,720,530 | YES | 0.997626 | 38,670.356054 | Geopolitics | Trade & Economics |
Ehh0S5A0QP | this-question-have-29-traders-by-ju | This question have 29+ traders by June 1? | null | 1,746,429,238,443 | 1,748,290,169,417 | 1,748,290,169,417 | YES | 0.99 | 6,123.478301 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
0hAUIIP6g5 | will-there-be-any-break-between-kag-002QnQPqt2 | Will there be any break between Kagurabachi chapters 75 and 76? | null | 1,743,972,445,777 | 1,744,577,911,406 | 1,744,577,914,717 | NO | 0.081364 | 253.986686 | Entertainment | Books & Literature |
ZNlRCCI8AE | will-january-2025-will-be-the-warme | Will January 2025 will be the warmest month of January ever recorded (global) ? | null | 1,731,094,787,950 | 1,738,450,740,000 | 1,739,790,638,066 | YES | 0.915417 | 715.380799 | Finance | Economic Indicators |
Pt5Elln99I | will-the-starship-flight-9-ship-be | Will the Starship Flight 9 ship be caught? | null | 1,741,058,227,032 | 1,748,578,527,655 | 1,748,578,527,655 | NO | 0.01 | 2,271.52428 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
ZSQg28zuZQ | will-any-state-have-more-than-10000-zRtNRLOdsU | Will any state have more than 100,000 customers without power (red on US Power Outage Map) before the end of 2024? | null | 1,732,412,244,472 | 1,735,707,540,000 | 1,735,742,066,270 | NO | 0.0099 | 24,156.098168 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
dPU5z8AUAA | will-i-receive-my-italian-birth-cer | Will I receive my Italian birth certificate this week? (24 - 28 Feb) | null | 1,740,332,942,044 | 1,740,805,140,000 | 1,740,841,371,987 | NO | 0.316366 | 47 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
gNL85uPdsA | will-the-buffalo-bills-win-the-supe--cash | Will the Buffalo Bills win the Super Bowl in 2025? | null | 1,730,485,321,991 | 1,737,997,980,383 | 1,737,997,980,383 | NO | 0.009881 | 1,402.793672 | Sports | Professional Sports |
2QCh0ZRL68 | bitcoin-below-90k-in-december | Bitcoin below $90K in December? | null | 1,733,114,420,195 | 1,735,718,340,000 | 1,735,718,469,000 | NO | 0.010523 | 60,425.987732 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
Bb4cqquvVs420v32QxVO | will-i-would-have-solved-alignment | Will "I Would Have Solved Alignment, But I Was Worr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,716,697,518,609 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,304,618,950 | NO | 0.121553 | 150 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
aoz7g7jqvy | will-noam-chomsky-live-to-see-an-is | Will Noam Chomsky live to see an Israel-Palestine ceasefire? | null | 1,718,329,896,259 | 1,742,184,389,875 | 1,742,184,389,875 | YES | 0.982718 | 52,300.369529 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
3ucdrrb9rg | will-the-la-rioja-currency-the-chac | Will the La Rioja currency the "chacho" default in December? | null | 1,725,400,879,345 | 1,735,685,940,000 | 1,735,785,975,658 | NO | 0.279921 | 700 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
zhyys5lLzO | will-barcelona-fc-win-the-champions | Will Barcelona FC win the Champions League 2024/2025? | null | 1,742,179,629,971 | 1,746,889,846,807 | 1,746,889,846,807 | NO | 0.001738 | 4,359.689552 | Sports | Professional Sports |
NlghhpPh0t | will-openais-deep-research-be-avail | Will OpenAI’s Deep Research be available to Plus and Team users in the United States before March 31st, 2025? | null | 1,738,761,122,497 | 1,740,520,447,485 | 1,740,520,447,485 | YES | 0.534291 | 90.334342 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
i3wnkdkq0z | a-year-from-now-will-manifold-think | A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up? | null | 1,719,379,429,007 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,751,776,522,656 | NO | 0.584539 | 1,362.67891 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
8Adp9lL8gq | in-the-next-30-days-will-this-marke | In the next 30 days, will this market with 100 liquidity earn me more mana than the twin market with 1k liquidity? | null | 1,740,433,434,372 | 1,743,029,940,000 | 1,743,032,127,652 | YES | 0.99 | 1,719.907679 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
hOUd98dgQc | sam-altman-takes-temporary-leave-of | Sam Altman takes temporary leave of absence from OpenAI before June 2025 | null | 1,741,808,710,378 | 1,748,736,000,000 | 1,748,764,765,082 | NO | 0.019686 | 2,844.31996 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
gNUURzzuSI | will-trump-ever-have-a-net-positive | Will Trump ever have a net positive approval rating? (Read Description) | null | 1,734,108,219,494 | 1,740,065,004,672 | 1,740,065,004,672 | YES | 0.978368 | 8,679.850037 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
ULp5h0Nulp | will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p | Will I receive the mandate of the people? | null | 1,749,934,205,656 | 1,750,528,020,000 | 1,751,407,177,117 | NO | 0.103653 | 8,602.739826 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
qt6dndUSQR | will-trump-impose-additional-tariff | Will Trump impose additional tariffs on China before April 10? | null | 1,738,692,010,681 | 1,741,105,625,372 | 1,741,105,625,372 | YES | 0.980984 | 8,510.898722 | Politics | Public Policy & Social Issues |
7e03nkxoc3 | will-giant-inscrutable-matrices-may | Will "Giant (In)scrutable Matrices: (Maybe) the Bes..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review? | null | 1,729,304,582,699 | 1,738,368,000,000 | 1,739,306,062,980 | NO | 0.14 | 0 | Books & Literature | Books & Literature |
XYzUgUimeMKzgqQ62O7K | will-dan-make-a-fully-paywalled-epi | WILL DAN MAKE A FULLY PAYWALLED EPISODE BEFORE 2025? | null | 1,714,926,358,360 | 1,735,865,717,377 | 1,735,865,717,377 | NO | 0.323276 | 65 | Entertainment | Movies & Television |
OZR0Iqphzn | will-openai-release-a-product-with-6LpgOUzROg | Will OpenAI release a product with the word "Orion" in its name before 2025? | null | 1,730,259,379,484 | 1,735,649,940,000 | 1,736,916,358,746 | NO | 0.036064 | 5,581.403125 | Technology | Tech Industry & Business |
0SN2qUQ5O5 | sp-500-above-6050-on-june-13 | S&P 500 above $6050 on June 13? | null | 1,749,604,773,162 | 1,749,846,916,957 | 1,749,846,916,957 | NO | 0.01 | 3,218.297257 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
ctz2EdtCPQ | bitcoin-above-97k-on-february-21 | Bitcoin above $97K on February 21? | null | 1,739,312,586,547 | 1,740,130,262,973 | 1,740,130,262,973 | YES | 0.990382 | 31,880.387425 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
5z5QuLqSn2 | will-elon-musk-stop-or-step-back-fr | Will Elon Musk stop or step back from running DOGE before the end of 2025? | null | 1,743,637,148,406 | 1,748,664,891,801 | 1,748,664,891,801 | YES | 0.969497 | 1,486.108586 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
LyRZPE9RIy | will-andrew-tate-meet-in-person-wit-N0pOOU6qUn | Will Andrew Tate meet in person with Trump within 1 week [March 6]? - credible reporting | null | 1,740,682,004,088 | 1,741,334,340,000 | 1,741,359,513,606 | NO | 0.033124 | 5,163.625418 | Politics | Elections & Campaigns |
l6SA65nC8Z | will-any-of-the-debris-of-the-faile | Will any of the debris of the failed 8th Starship Flight injure any civilians? | null | 1,741,307,957,445 | 1,741,682,803,490 | 1,741,682,803,490 | NO | 0.01 | 953.500634 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
uhmaba0ts8 | will-any-nfl-quarterback-exceed-509 | Will any NFL quarterback exceed 509 passing yards in a single game before the end of the 2024 season?* | null | 1,728,055,195,407 | 1,736,131,165,732 | 1,736,131,165,732 | NO | 0.01 | 1,272.936594 | Sports | Professional Sports |
OylE9tuN9n | will-an-llm-break-1400-elo-on-lmsys | Will an LLM break 1400 ELO on LMSys before February? | null | 1,734,721,071,666 | 1,738,429,425,385 | 1,738,429,425,385 | NO | 0.010411 | 150,907.711029 | Technology | Emerging Technologies |
2hpgPZA62Q | will-iran-hit-israel-within-11-mont | Will Iran hit Israel within 11 months of being attacked by them? | null | 1,738,417,384,331 | 1,749,949,721,525 | 1,749,949,721,525 | YES | 0.972241 | 1,118.410507 | Geopolitics | Global Conflicts |
Ag299cC8EZ | bitcoins-price-will-outperform-the | Bitcoin's price will outperform the floor price of top 10 NFT collections by June 2025 | null | 1,741,798,728,873 | 1,749,513,600,000 | 1,749,891,949,503 | YES | 0.764151 | 80 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
RE8dn5uI5C | will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-thlqqtEcOS | Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Mar 10 than it closed on Mar 7? | null | 1,741,595,860,242 | 1,741,638,194,433 | 1,741,638,194,433 | NO | 0.01 | 9,438.698082 | Finance | Markets & Trading |
8dElzcnn0Z | will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg | Will Trump declare a national emergency on immigration before February 2025? | null | 1,732,041,364,644 | 1,737,437,049,787 | 1,737,437,049,787 | YES | 0.99 | 37,526.535413 | Politics | Domestic Policy |
hzd8sClRR2 | will-i-be-able-to-rent-an-h100-for | Will I be able to rent an H100 for under $2/hr on March 31? | null | 1,739,895,055,697 | 1,743,569,940,000 | 1,743,738,399,370 | NO | 0.753846 | 75 | Technology | Computing & Software |
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