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hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Update: my medical has been assessed! I have to get a waiver for a condition from my doctor, and then I should be cleared! appointment for that is set ...
Pat Scott🩴
vZiCpQOF0A3JEM5DfgaM
public
contract
1,717,781,967,610
will-i-work-in-antarctica-this-year
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Will I work in Antarctica this year? Which parts of the process will happen?
null
null
175.723132
YES
45a0ee9f0e5b
yedr8dkkbr
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a4gc1fwp94d", "label": "Dynd", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
IY
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,781,969,282
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.046401
856.248259
YES
null
rcnc1t8h98n
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
nikki
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,781,997,819
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,792.902017
NO
7a987b043340
prearvzvd
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gaz Downright
jPX7cGLlGj8GvHqWa8eN
public
contract
1,717,782,018,178
which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-c004941d883e
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
🪄Which Hogwarts house will Manifold sort Volodymyr Zelenskyy into?
vax5olrez3r
null
57.725141
YES
a6f95b54d9b9
3xp795qc3x9
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r74zdgfl1ld", "label": "cash", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Savior of Plant
0YCYyjBNcZ2XW9Qer4sD
public
contract
1,717,782,030,164
will-the-us-government-take-control
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
r74zdgfl1ld
0.2653
368.639555
YES
null
9l3bthqe4hu
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cxiefq7nd57", "label": "K4IICHI", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
l5VWGNNOd1H2UfhFfBVS
public
contract
1,717,782,090,743
is-the-anonleopard-model-on-the-cha-eha6nvzex5
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Is the "anon-leopard" model on the Chatbot Arena the ~400B parameter Llama-3?
cxiefq7nd57
0.062835
195.060979
NO
null
wimge4p4kkk
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Gaz Downright
Lg3p94BIaroWP5A0c0Sf
public
contract
1,717,782,136,045
is-this-real-gpt45
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Is gpt2-chatbot OpenAI's next-generation model (e.g. GPT-4.5, GPT-5, etc.)
null
0.197797
14.23402
NO
null
ek3eizeutcc
false
7vUxHjoYCcVI3BYn9mrFFDIEP9v1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u3zb0g0y1cj", "label": "chatterchatty", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Maryy
e0xKqGPwVnMMdhvLhR1r
public
contract
1,717,782,269,384
i-was-deferred-from-mit-ea-will-i-m-7c7f9c680bf6
e945
https://firebasestorage.…4fe-0f9f0dc0e263
Will I make MIT RA as a competition math star, given that I've been deferred EA?
u3zb0g0y1cj
null
null
null
null
4yzpdln2vfg
false
8tpyEuONEicPEGLBzBEPuvtHded2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you think brexit voters / working class Tories wont pivot into Reform I dont know what to say. They're polling at ~15-20% in a sample of 2k", ...
Greyhawk
TQtbOp0LqYL1lEztQjXj
public
contract
1,717,782,443,823
uk-genreal-election-2024-will-refor
Greyhawk
https://firebasestorage.…2e4-da1e5dd7348f
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
null
0.46
885.632604
YES
null
uzxspy3f84b
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i0jnqs2pit8", "label": "Arky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Bruno
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,782,488,760
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
i0jnqs2pit8
null
2.759356
YES
16df8c8459d1
tnoqctzi47
false
SEOxIEtslBacD4eFSCcrejOOWby1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
Iced Rick
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,782,623,548
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
IcedRick
https://firebasestorage.…b94-a211dd99fd41
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
null
null
null
ll2epdxewvn
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Ziddletwix
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,782,640,853
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
8,435.10403
YES
7d3ab63031a7
9x0vsl9dut
false
SEOxIEtslBacD4eFSCcrejOOWby1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
Iced Rick
3feLr12QbJeo2IFocrZN
public
contract
1,717,782,759,950
how-many-standard-deviations-is-ice
IcedRick
https://firebasestorage.…b94-a211dd99fd41
How many standard deviations is @ice's IQ from the norm?
null
null
null
null
null
2q3ko91v6au
false
SEOxIEtslBacD4eFSCcrejOOWby1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
Iced Rick
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,717,782,826,668
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
IcedRick
https://firebasestorage.…b94-a211dd99fd41
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
null
null
null
null
null
nd6b6rwb6vb
false
ggfvjliocTRO7vlDu2bmIUCByVg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e2nmz5cnta", "label": "Berg", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Oleg Eterevsky
9T2V7uRgbU3dgzzrI7AG
public
contract
1,717,782,929,757
when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb
OlegEterevsky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIrKQfky4Nxm2Qdsu7P1OOt8lDYh7dkqk19iplCCt_FEXxn=s96-c
When will Starship complete an orbit?
kxvc9h50ixl
null
null
null
null
tw0v33ef0ar
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you voted vanilla extract, was it for the meme or because you want to see what it does to the resulting cake? Or are you galaxy brain and think lite...
Madge
PqUHmGF921vb1Dpmo3fz
public
contract
1,717,783,107,599
manifold-makes-a-cake-ingredients-p
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
null
null
null
null
null
s7iavtgtm6q
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5p47d2m2iy", "label": "Qoiuoiuoiu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Plasma Ballin'
yu2nQM7IQo8IiW7YAjYf
public
contract
1,717,783,191,879
the-market-1-year-will-the-average
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?
br0eaxp02pm
0.647832
944.003714
NO
null
k90xqt6nne
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Remember not to bet options all the way to 99% so that people can still vote on them", "type": "text" } ], "type": "parag...
Plasma Ballin'
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,783,314,666
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
1,185.946396
YES
36508860cdd0
vmon33x2wgd
false
XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hgwj3796liq", "label": "Fedor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Peter Miller
SufJVwcJSZ0g81X3Lnm5
public
contract
1,717,783,318,573
was-roaring-kittys-account-hacked
PeterMillerc030
https://firebasestorage.…12a-e0019b6a7e37
Was roaring kitty's account hacked?
6xt0zdtt593
null
null
null
null
kf7icnesnjm
false
HoOjRjOQjQWNmwdqhkGzYzvhaSw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Made a couple of small initial bets to push the percentages around a little, but from this point on I will not bet on this market.", "type": ...
TheSchwa
w1Guf3q6nEyVb1sMAyrO
public
contract
1,717,783,366,600
the-median-answer-will-resolve-yes
TheSchwa
https://firebasestorage.…bac-cc68523535a6
The median answer will resolve YES.
null
null
13.48231
YES
xzr4rvvlbp
4vt1plg4gi8
false
OispOHcuZ6Mtln1rU1R6Dl0JblV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rrszkh8ow5", "label": "PseudonymousBosche24f", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
alex
25kZq5ACmZZcDkfqRRFW
public
contract
1,717,783,394,915
what-type-of-team-will-win-the-2025
gocougs
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKgcEdee0YHQfqznypu7NY6p_lmXBvNqOhfJXKnQ92apw=s96-c
What type of team will win the 2025 college football national championship?
rrszkh8ow5
null
0
NO
07d341c1f9e0
j6udgknjn4h
false
GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dkgwe51qmjo", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
RemNi
GIBPC4FII9MI19QoBqGM
public
contract
1,717,783,419,863
will-my-tinnitus-be-cured-by-the-en
RemNi
https://firebasestorage.…ad4-a4c719e99ff1
Will my tinnitus be cured by the end of 2080?
63hu2g6xa2l
null
null
null
null
h4xwy8ioexm
false
XA1YJBwS9ISwLj6hf1Ola7y7mxN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6xt0zdtt593", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Peter Miller
SufJVwcJSZ0g81X3Lnm5
public
contract
1,717,783,457,755
was-roaring-kittys-account-hacked
PeterMillerc030
https://firebasestorage.…12a-e0019b6a7e37
Was roaring kitty's account hacked?
6xt0zdtt593
null
null
null
null
4kezslqmiy5
false
OdBj5DW6PbYtnImvybpyZzfhb133
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tnoqctzi47", "label": "IcedRick", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jim
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,783,585,576
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
jim
https://firebasestorage.…9bd-1f9dcd4cd13f
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
tnoqctzi47
null
71.007385
NO
291fff8a8f11
ecdohsw8bsp
false
uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ct3ljc8jkdb", "label": "SG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
David Chee
4uM25K4xRTWW65l4iWoO
public
contract
1,717,783,669,354
will-this-market-help-me-find-an-of
SirSalty
https://firebasestorage.…36b-b18dac7680bd
Will this market get me an offer to interview that I accept for a new job by the end of Manifest?
ct3ljc8jkdb
null
null
null
null
xraeqoo5pk8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ecdohsw8bsp", "label": "SirSalty", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
4uM25K4xRTWW65l4iWoO
public
contract
1,717,783,866,039
will-this-market-help-me-find-an-of
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will this market get me an offer to interview that I accept for a new job by the end of Manifest?
ct3ljc8jkdb
null
null
null
null
bdfxme3ycjq
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "or down to 1% - if you move the probability to either extreme all future bets in that direction are canceled/refunded and not recorded as votes. best t...
stefanie
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,783,925,270
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
k90xqt6nne
null
1,049.843861
NO
08463c5f4f91
k704yon7ou8
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "prearvzvd", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
jPX7cGLlGj8GvHqWa8eN
public
contract
1,717,783,967,347
which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-c004941d883e
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🪄Which Hogwarts house will Manifold sort Volodymyr Zelenskyy into?
vax5olrez3r
null
10.334025
NO
cc9115961cbb
qe3n4sdnlob
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "one down", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,784,031,267
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
646.801232
YES
b29bb5e5c75d
bkuxl7nben
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "didnt win ultimate, maybe we run a melee one...?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,784,048,744
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
646.801232
YES
b29bb5e5c75d
jdntr8ssl0a
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qe3n4sdnlob", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,784,050,779
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
qe3n4sdnlob
null
18.107822
YES
ec23fae2cfcd
19p4yy2343r
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "selling jimmy carter pins at manifest - $5 ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, ...
chris (strutheo)
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,784,100,745
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
646.801232
YES
b29bb5e5c75d
6ismv3cke6i
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": nu...
JohnofCharleston
bnCvIfZyeQi9sPxwHmpx
public
contract
1,717,784,209,470
when-will-i-first-test-negative-for-yz82eeu89v
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
When will I FIRST test negative for COVID
null
null
358.584102
YES
bx2xfnm7ix
7xh8v8qguht
false
zxMEiyi30YNN9tJvhq2hIC35QmJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z68m0ynk7qi", "label": "Dynd", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Sinuboh
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,784,326,284
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
sinuboh
https://firebasestorage.…040-69a98bd9c8c3
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.14268
1,025.869975
YES
null
7de5qro8ano
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Every place I see is hiring, so I find it difficult to believe that ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "...
Steve Sokolowski
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,784,510,561
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
185.433138
NO
5c6653a59f85
i7o540iefp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7de5qro8ano", "label": "SteveSokolowski", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
chris (strutheo)
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,784,665,994
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
7de5qro8ano
null
204.01187
YES
99f4a2dc15f0
b8b1lcmz0at
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "WTF THIS IS A PLAY MARKET? 10 MANA PER QUESTION? WTF", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null...
chris (strutheo)
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,784,691,602
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
204.01187
YES
99f4a2dc15f0
sp2o5gucbop
false
J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "uovsxkcm017", "label": "SusanneinFrance", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Steve Sokolowski
RsnijoImmtmbKZpV4o8g
public
contract
1,717,784,705,347
with-the-third-human-case-of-h5n1-b
SteveSokolowski
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c
With the third human case of H5N1 Bird Flu reported in US, how many human cases will be confirmed in 2024?
uovsxkcm017
null
null
null
null
hay39qmy56
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7xh8v8qguht", "label": "sinuboh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
IY
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,785,021,479
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.476102
856.248259
YES
null
ml401rvn7b
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vcRnogNTojb2z8RejfxaYDwYs6B3", "label": "ADings", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
1TOrmJAymBwMCpolvNg3
public
contract
1,717,785,090,080
which-players-will-be-part-of-germa-906119729e9d
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Which players will be part of Germany's squad for UEFA Euro 2024?
null
null
707.308387
YES
2f16f77dbbb8
x3j4krc7fo
false
rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "There is no Cummings Party.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": ...
Simon Grayson
qnsbS6y0w3DRsJhireJe
public
contract
1,717,785,134,084
will-dominic-cummingss-new-politica
SimonGrayson
https://firebasestorage.…846-fd0042ad0696
Will Dominic Cummings's new political party have any success in the 2024 UK general election?
null
0.020929
1,162.353677
NO
null
l6jrox041ss
false
NkVYTWX3UVUiy2z5fc1SknVeEXt2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4t562nojd8", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
dionisos
Oi8DFOzkuBv5OyC4cqea
public
contract
1,717,785,232,523
what-book-will-i-enjoy-reading
dionisos
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaBN5h-fDSn1z_PVqv7Ig7DoyQe7_sl0KXlw4bokw=s96-c
What books will I enjoy reading?
4t562nojd8
null
11.939188
YES
f74c6fda694d
urgq77muww
false
zxMEiyi30YNN9tJvhq2hIC35QmJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hay39qmy56", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Sinuboh
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,785,516,687
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
sinuboh
https://firebasestorage.…040-69a98bd9c8c3
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.476102
4,794.057157
YES
null
ow1qcqu1y2a
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "83hp8wcjsvo", "label": "EugeneBixby", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Martin Modrák
qTW7ZeOLOuA7xKiKbs6y
public
contract
1,717,785,790,069
will-ukrainian-forces-attempt-to-re
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024?
83hp8wcjsvo
0.218454
2,084.943903
NO
null
rujmjio6899
false
ovFIUtAhsmW4CgczuBGoHSEjFI13
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r74zdgfl1ld", "label": "cash", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Stark
0YCYyjBNcZ2XW9Qer4sD
public
contract
1,717,786,034,741
will-the-us-government-take-control
StarkLN
https://firebasestorage.…b7b-8e8f10700842
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
r74zdgfl1ld
null
null
null
null
0q7ag8ypbhc
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8dwswhvxzy", "label": "PaulMaynard", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Genzy
lchVW2H6mGhiV7k1ytvy
public
contract
1,717,786,371,313
what-cards-from-modern-horizons-3-w
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
What cards from Modern Horizons 3 will be banned/restricted after release in any format within a year of release?
173kxdxdbhu
null
null
null
null
pzr9388out
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will you tell the winner(s) about this market while or after they've shown the item? ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs"...
Bayesian
NoJZcAKPCSwu22uNkcUT
public
contract
1,717,786,489,523
will-someone-who-initially-buys-yes
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will someone who initially buys YES here win either the Most Impressive Action or Most Impressive Item Manifest markets?
null
0.379632
93.882781
NO
null
adb4ux6hleb
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "urgq77muww", "label": "sinuboh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
IY
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,786,520,709
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.76
1,048.092402
YES
null
bfxenayhuhw
false
GFhEaNvJqlVqi8xRFYt0WlCYAEL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0q7ag8ypbhc", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Paul Maynard
lchVW2H6mGhiV7k1ytvy
public
contract
1,717,786,609,335
what-cards-from-modern-horizons-3-w
PaulMaynard
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKsJqxlmOJb9UqTFSYCoXOnG5dQzQ6EmYQ1HsVoQVGsDUA=s96-c
What cards from Modern Horizons 3 will be banned/restricted after release in any format within a year of release?
173kxdxdbhu
null
367.804186
NO
75c219d13f3f
lubv7l9ddv8
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
u2NdPEpAGQTbmpNJg0gO
public
contract
1,717,786,994,316
will-mbappe-leave-for-real-madrid-d
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Will Mbappe leave for Real Madrid during 2024?
zilvkpr599j
null
5,340.175882
YES
756dfd34558b
x18cwxdxm9r
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "43ol5n8gsft", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
JohnofCharleston
bbyF1T7OVjSmUoJrpwQv
public
contract
1,717,787,070,831
how-many-attendees-will-test-positi
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
How many attendees will test positive for COVID during summer camp or LessOnline?
43ol5n8gsft
null
727.163924
YES
cw2yztqo6v
03jcmtaac2z1
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Bayesian
deWIBe40SWjf8Prd7Ij6
public
contract
1,717,787,086,877
when-will-manifest-2024-tickets-sel-fe532aa13023
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
When will Manifest 2024 tickets sell out?
null
null
271.096017
YES
08d321b18388
fgbo1dvp0b
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "03jcmtaac2z1", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
deWIBe40SWjf8Prd7Ij6
public
contract
1,717,787,114,497
when-will-manifest-2024-tickets-sel-fe532aa13023
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
When will Manifest 2024 tickets sell out?
03jcmtaac2z1
null
97.063466
YES
08d321b18388
0sxeqfnvywum
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rujmjio6899", "label": "StarkLN", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ernie
0YCYyjBNcZ2XW9Qer4sD
public
contract
1,717,787,150,096
will-the-us-government-take-control
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
r74zdgfl1ld
0.228224
57.718359
YES
null
x8s950l5p4
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does twitter, discord, and general social media shenanigans count as \"correspond with\", or does it have to be private communications via email/DM, et...
JohnofCharleston
iHacIyW2j51IA3B7iLTx
public
contract
1,717,787,241,531
how-many-friends-will-ranag-make-fr
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
How many friends will @RanaG make from attending LessOnline/SC/Manifest?
null
null
null
null
null
ifruhzxe0u
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "God I wish top traders worked for this market type.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
Panfilo
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,787,242,259
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
9,311.423794
YES
52c8a526fb05
6iow609vfm
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Andrew G
Bj5WbVCwhHbMGCw0FiOK
public
contract
1,717,787,293,407
will-the-new-escalator-installation
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Will the new escalator installation in civic center happen before the end of summer 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
xf14guu9lh
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,787,323,254
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
null
null
27,069.559319
NO
1f72e6f34b10
0lt85mmtzp
false
8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Lol I'm unable to vote yes on Microsoft", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Will
SuO3sH4odZtuKq0nNl3N
public
contract
1,717,787,326,247
what-will-be-the-top3-ai-labs-in-20-ff578e9dd7a2
wrhall
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2024?
null
null
3,070.63918
YES
4af06f1f1dfa
o50v9b1tik
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xf14guu9lh", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,787,403,848
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
xf14guu9lh
null
27,069.559319
NO
1f72e6f34b10
frno2adjfww
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ifruhzxe0u", "label": "Panfilo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,787,430,564
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
ifruhzxe0u
null
27,069.559319
NO
1f72e6f34b10
x6urdx4rfpg
false
IiBcUTs3V1bYSg0WbDlq4eKASv62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "are you actively applying?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
0x413124
PPHq6NEOAR1X9ap0fOlK
public
contract
1,717,787,702,532
will-i-ari-zerner-get-a-job-as-a-qu
0x413124
https://firebasestorage.…d93-076646d2c566
Will I (Ari Zerner) get a job as a quant trader within 3 years after completing Manifest Trading Bootcamp?
null
0.526803
176.684037
YES
null
dmpaq7h0nvc
false
8dboiK130XNESzFh0uztbNkfcxa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If Google has spent 1T on all of their tpus and do distributed training does that count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "p...
Will
yBgbKkObAFck4fvmcvot
public
contract
1,717,787,716,966
lasa-1t-ai-training-cluster-by-the
wrhall
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLy8Q3CWCvkDqnporNAUQ-xDxOZHF8NzmJa32mXx3Dw5kDlqRfw=s96-c
[LA:SA] $1T AI training cluster by the end of 2030?
null
null
null
null
null
6awc8so41bg
false
U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "frno2adjfww", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Panfilo
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,787,743,171
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Panfilo
https://firebasestorage.…30c-2f62a625fa0b
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
ifruhzxe0u
null
9,311.423794
YES
52c8a526fb05
c77fna3hb7
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yikes. That did not go well. It attracted a few bids, but must not have cleared its minimum reserve, because no sale is listed. Resolves NO", ...
Ziddletwix
UwfzZ1tarYN8e8O8QjWZ
public
contract
1,717,787,793,666
will-this-david-morris-sapphire-dia
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will this David Morris Sapphire & Diamond Necklace sell for >$5 million at its Sotheby's auction? (pics included)
null
0.025954
12,848.225275
NO
null
0irrvsvr43wr
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "unfortunately we're outside and there are no microphones :( ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,787,801,562
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
1,353.533944
NO
bff58054cf45
pqopetqgpb
false
fsbw3279TdNxi58kBGtSQLI9Uyi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "ooh I also commute by EUC and my coworker just happened to make a ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "...
Tao Lin
NTzDIAxDpvua30AlsBII
public
contract
1,717,787,801,977
will-i-get-injured-riding-my-electr
TaoLin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7zodDnlZOVsvri1JVtZzdKSKjd4lo5sjdFQD0Vniw=s96-c
Will I get injured riding my electric unicycle by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
53rsa2jsocm
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c77fna3hb7", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ziddletwix
UwfzZ1tarYN8e8O8QjWZ
public
contract
1,717,787,826,864
will-this-david-morris-sapphire-dia
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will this David Morris Sapphire & Diamond Necklace sell for >$5 million at its Sotheby's auction? (pics included)
c77fna3hb7
0.025954
12,848.225275
NO
null
kylv3tkns4h
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't know why I thought today was June 8th in my mind, so in a sense, I blundered the original problem statement in the description, but I hope nobo...
Quroe
0e0GLiuSseaIy137jpe5
public
contract
1,717,788,013,898
will-my-next-fortune-cookie-be-a-ju
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
Will my next fortune cookie be a "judgment cookie?"
null
null
null
null
null
yfmbfm8s2ih
false
d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xuw0lodokzr", "label": "vVv", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Bence
ZlDNd204Hlc7GkXcztNI
public
contract
1,717,788,084,709
will-cnns-online-news-abandon-its-l
bence
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY6q8sP8ydlU9daTxBnT6rxi4S_cnrdBUjDR2INFbY=s96-c
Will CNN's online news abandon its left-leaning bias by 2025 according to AllSides Media Bias ratings?
69rcrho8uht
0.256339
-0
YES
null
94n48h1cdk7
false
fsbw3279TdNxi58kBGtSQLI9Uyi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "for reference, the closest I've come to a severe injury was crashing into a car 2 years ago, which left me very bruised and very bad at walking for ~3 ...
Tao Lin
wC5Lg83E3Xh7Qx7ymqnv
public
contract
1,717,788,147,382
will-tao-be-severely-injured-in-a-e
TaoLin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7zodDnlZOVsvri1JVtZzdKSKjd4lo5sjdFQD0Vniw=s96-c
Will Tao be severely injured in a electric unicycle accident in 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
43y69pezvqm
false
n9g6oDj4dqgJQyE0P0PBsex1sWI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Naka is above 2800 at the end of Norway. I don't see anything else scheduled for him in June, so I expect this to resolve to Naka at the end of June", ...
Daniel Tilkin
8vdHPrqDNDeoEKOqwG9N
public
contract
1,717,788,260,362
who-will-be-the-next-chess-player-t-266fa6b12d16
DanielTilkin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaD_F3MPbut-et9lJUiLj_dMo5cRkQ70utJs_egAQ=s96-c
Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical)
null
null
2,184.573718
YES
0511249f09d4
a9aeojv0wnv
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "u3whfczzpfb", "label": "benjaminIkuta", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Alex
A6yrdjMnA3nglCqVgHrg
public
contract
1,717,788,638,967
will-i-enter-a-relationship-in-2024
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Will I enter a relationship in 2024?
u3whfczzpfb
null
null
null
null
kt70khpknup
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "HAPPENING NOW come watch for insider info!! glass room", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
chris (strutheo)
HldTSUgqvqJiX73ZpmVQ
public
contract
1,717,788,835,891
who-will-win-the-summer-camp-sit-go-sxtg41l7t9
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Who will win the Summer Camp Sit & Go Holdem Tournament on Friday?
null
null
0
NO
1j6vllqddo
53uq35p8yt6
false
MRjW2CLX2ZWYm97PMwvTdYSTJ5g1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Per this spreadsheet they have validly nominated candidates in >600 seats.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
alh
Vqlel5shoIBN16Kz8UwF
public
contract
1,717,788,898,951
uk-general-election-2024-will-refor
alh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJOYqNwjWqVxrdyfZkgI7wzcYEKBtW2Wyl50riBsXx4IQ=s96-c
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK run in at least 600 seats?
null
0.694552
5,294.031801
YES
null
xl1nww8rq2
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If the next Nintendo console is not the \"Switch 2\", does this resolve N/A or No?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragra...
Josh
iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4
public
contract
1,717,789,196,272
will-the-nintendo-switch-2-have-the
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch?
null
null
null
null
null
g5tjqs36y1i
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2", "label": "Symmetry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
OVDRlQpiwX6tF2ssLhQL
public
contract
1,717,789,296,888
will-bing-ai-stop-sucking-by-mid-20
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Bing AI stop sucking by mid 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
mxap4m9dpns
false
NndHcEmeJhPQ6n7e7yqAPa3Oiih2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does this market require that GitHub originate the ban themselves? Or would you also resolve this YES if some law is passed (in a jurisdiction relevant...
Josh
0buTWMqxRwkduBImztb9
public
contract
1,717,789,311,583
will-github-implement-a-blanket-ban
josh
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx0QJyn3_RlfR7N92j1FntqMP_80imf6p_zLKws=s96-c
Will GitHub implement a blanket ban on voice cloning projects before 2026?
null
null
null
null
null
q6uk3pi1dhl
false
jpyISdL4APOg3400CHUBgylhwU32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "adb4ux6hleb", "label": "vitamind", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Hyperlincoln
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,789,597,533
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
Hyperlincoln
https://firebasestorage.…f8f-d22d2ae6d687
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.63289
1,127.706761
NO
null
n8f5s1doy18
false
wbXNSHyBlFb22U3jMxheKBoOXYn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6ismv3cke6i", "label": "JohnBennett", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Chris V
bnCvIfZyeQi9sPxwHmpx
public
contract
1,717,789,781,438
when-will-i-first-test-negative-for-yz82eeu89v
voodoo
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJvMxwuK2gMCy5Z5egEg2drhsz4s5lov7Jd_WwypFTydJw=s96-c
When will I FIRST test negative for COVID
6ismv3cke6i
null
386.282329
NO
i1qouhebe9
hip7or4kwvo
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Aww I wish I'd been there", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Shelvacu
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,789,861,181
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
1,185.044922
YES
hnug92zg8c
h3ylg15kzo
false
S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "P7rLJmOcMDZGzqOSdPR1AdeH2Lg1", "label": "houstonEuler", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Mark Hamill
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,789,920,406
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
MarkHamill
https://firebasestorage.…262-532109daa79d
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
12,399.423644
NO
fgktizg4gd
uvgm6akyj6h
false
JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wpXEdDzBqEgtf8t4On6k", "label": "/ovals/to-which-is-the-last-round-that-jan-33p3x7ngpe", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text...
Stuart Slagle
peEdhWcSRqzF1HyvELUi
public
contract
1,717,789,955,816
to-which-is-the-last-round-that-jan
ovals
https://firebasestorage.…998-09d34fa58717
To which is the last round that Jannik Sinner will advance in the 2024 FRENCH OPEN tournament? 🎾
null
null
3,074.105334
NO
46e20aa16897
swwycj9p91f
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Wikipedia articles:", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ ...
Santeri
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,789,991,020
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,014.789238
YES
065fbd96fd63
roih7ru2fq
false
fsbw3279TdNxi58kBGtSQLI9Uyi1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "omg i want to bet on crazy things but they're already priced too high!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Tao Lin
NIeBbP2TWD6u34Y8r2cF
public
contract
1,717,790,069,120
what-vehicles-does-bond-drivepilot
TaoLin
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7zodDnlZOVsvri1JVtZzdKSKjd4lo5sjdFQD0Vniw=s96-c
What vehicles does Bond drive/pilot in the next James Bond movie?
null
null
null
null
null
mu7rmmyh0d
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "swwycj9p91f", "label": "sanyero", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Santeri
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,790,171,060
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
swwycj9p91f
null
1,014.789238
YES
065fbd96fd63
x17i2c5mtpq
false
nbj8r8H3C6UL2IesTDuEaXZuNQv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ek9stv21lam", "label": "AlQuinn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Carmel Hadar
ZslgmdOyz0d0YqjTem3i
public
contract
1,717,790,402,338
will-israel-and-hizballa-significan
CarmelHadar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6-PsNv0vfq1yMPjvNCpWTKm6Y9EbvtoTxK7WQ4nBc=s96-c
Will israel and hizballa significantly increase their conflict during the first half of 2024
933l17vhd9c
0.336796
2,082.182837
YES
null
wjwlcyhmzp8
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
The Official
ODNgeLSVcNAyMkOrkkCB
public
contract
1,717,790,516,828
-stock-ipo-2024-which-companies-wil
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Which companies will successfully launch an IPO in 2024?
null
null
14,028.795599
YES
66dca34662af
1ts9jijdwdw
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hip7or4kwvo", "label": "Shelvacu", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
N.C. Young
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,790,533,498
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
hip7or4kwvo
null
2,058.338649
NO
aaa2153c5a72
sh7te15us4
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "b8b1lcmz0at", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
stefanie
8wLURoRAPrdpSodTYMZo
public
contract
1,717,790,573,068
what-will-happen-in-june-2024-add-r
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
☀️What will happen in June 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
b8b1lcmz0at
null
null
null
null
ieb8hx168u
false
cfz8q51Q6xdrRjBw1HdfmMlsmAz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "20564c9ugvj", "label": "PlasmaBallin", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Floris van Doorn
yu2nQM7IQo8IiW7YAjYf
public
contract
1,717,790,580,089
the-market-1-year-will-the-average
FlorisvanDoorn
https://firebasestorage.…c1f-a3e7016ece41
"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?
20564c9ugvj
0.402596
2,857.438806
NO
null
4iiwgci50zb
false
OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9wzfljcgx6", "label": "Moscow25", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
SirCryptomind
LxceRCDNAljAVrybmuph
public
contract
1,717,790,619,864
will-gamestop-gme-hit-70-during-tra
SirCryptomind
https://firebasestorage.…340-2fe2428b1394
Will GameStop ($GME) hit $70 during trading on Friday June 7th?
9wzfljcgx6
0.01167
1,521.082407
NO
null
qh414hyeg3
false
hPEqASWOExWovWUevORTAyFI7u62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x6urdx4rfpg", "label": "abra", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Ari Zerner
PPHq6NEOAR1X9ap0fOlK
public
contract
1,717,790,659,868
will-i-ari-zerner-get-a-job-as-a-qu
AriZerner
https://firebasestorage.…0a6-a9d433b24f4c
Will I (Ari Zerner) get a job as a quant trader within 3 years after completing Manifest Trading Bootcamp?
x6urdx4rfpg
null
null
null
null
a48ymtq8mqd
false
Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "and here we go again...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Lion
dU2Uiw6OuEEHUOMaeUY6
public
contract
1,717,790,834,460
bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-d15eec2d540e
Lion
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,500.00 before 5,100.00?
9t6pste10cq
null
null
null
null
i88xdeverk
false
UBSxdnqoFrMXd6kEgO2WZBUbEe03
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y8pvdbly90m", "label": "JamesBaker3", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Adrian
w4eoVWcMSMP4XGFFs1pL
public
contract
1,717,790,850,080
is-the-openai-arrakis-model-real
ahalekelly
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghr3GphVe8yrwupnxxBlLPm1vsM5kGtL7uYKGvyiKQ=s96-c
Is the OpenAI Arrakis Model Real?
y8pvdbly90m
null
null
null
null
v9rivgnc3bq
false
QRdUiXFvVRXFrq3zNOJrUj76iwn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When will this resolve?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
M L
ARWQ0Cn99lNflMCSrj7x
public
contract
1,717,790,933,934
does-manifold-meditate
ML12d1
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJQ_TkdRKgFmuMlRnyYbkd73FNjzN0J-38pXcnxV40C3A=s96-c
Does Manifold meditate?
null
0.379638
38.410286
NO
null
gqhsmvgkkjl
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "label": "NcyRocks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
bfuHyzgdpe5nDRH9aAzW
public
contract
1,717,791,292,388
will-manifest-2024-happen-in-sf-fro
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will Manifest 2024 happen in the SF Bay Area from June 7-9?
null
0.99
1.024083
YES
null
y42ibuqyvl9
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qJXuygUKaOPZy1CQjW2mdGO6Wpt1", "label": "Elspeth", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
3SXc91ReBZpxkYhQSXzV
public
contract
1,717,791,315,659
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-2024-on
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will there be a Manifest in 2024 on or before 2024-09-22?
null
0.99
1,044.955831
YES
null
86bslck7l68
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Polb8maeefXJ8XRGc31awM6v7Br1", "label": "RahulShah", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Ziddletwix
C1IJOl6ztvu80oTktNXG
public
contract
1,717,791,330,766
will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-fir
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will there be a Manifest in the first half of 2024?
null
0.99
4,622.232469
YES
null
e6g9dr1yi58
false
UhNLru5kyBYquOsZaisU2YG2RK02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Sex workers usually don’t want to have sex with “most” men on Earth. Maybe if there were a huge die-off of men?", "type": "text" } ...
ClubmasterTransparent
7foUpkpg3WTbMqVV2crK
public
contract
1,717,791,375,843
will-most-women-accept-payment-for
ClubmasterTransparent
https://firebasestorage.…448-76c2f1fcfeee
Will most women accept payment for sex from most men (independently and without any need for managers/pimps) by 2026?
null
null
null
null
null