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int64
1,716B
1,720B
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48
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1
25
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50
1.03k
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stringlengths
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stringlengths
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float64
0
50
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float64
-0
6.25M
commentorPositionOutcome
stringclasses
2 values
commentorPositionAnswerId
stringlengths
9
12
akt764izr8f
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
nikki
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,803,251,840
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
944.982603
YES
4d2ae2bf2386
1418fg99eewf
false
GSKLuvDpKGhoM9gUTPiwmrk9XWi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z4df6fncxkg", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Wamba Ivanhoe
tQOewBqp7EnDCj6bFzAe
public
contract
1,717,803,253,713
how-many-billions-of-dollars-would
ShitakiIntaki
https://firebasestorage.…af4-315bb12f4740
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
an17ef03bi
null
null
null
null
ia81fg95uic
false
kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Just saw him", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ernie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,803,327,770
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Ernie
https://firebasestorage.…761-3d26c24f8466
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
2,072.788252
YES
0e6cff7dfcc6
mrhducefej9
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yea", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ziddletwix
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,803,389,097
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
1,742.68226
YES
5a6rgegp8z
51bwtp9oc6w
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolve this yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,803,435,710
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
8,080.365246
YES
x6r6zu60n5
eayjeo4h2s9
false
2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Noa Nabeshima
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,803,607,969
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
NoaNabeshima
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGG2fLz1xZY60s5Zky2ne9wKGcZ1kXwE36DRdoyA=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,050.743782
YES
b1dcfb913c78
5e4wdzej2l2
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,803,637,225
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
944.982603
YES
4d2ae2bf2386
9xozqmjb7c7
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "51bwtp9oc6w", "label": "Elliot_dev", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Elliot
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,803,656,729
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
51bwtp9oc6w
null
1,807.525247
YES
ig9nric28g
kkxpzi9n2vi
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolve yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,803,905,473
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
637.921765
YES
w3mqby3zp9
4jc17dyxnve
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "owqlzp67rm", "label": "EliezerYudkowsky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
jackson polack
Oi8DFOzkuBv5OyC4cqea
public
contract
1,717,804,154,805
what-book-will-i-enjoy-reading
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
What books will I enjoy reading?
4t562nojd8
null
591.866498
NO
69ed54926f9f
ug663d47pog
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolve yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,804,208,188
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,814.427639
YES
b9be7b7e6aad
edaylt5uf2g
false
vrPa0bHD3MQ7QGore2pXulifTwh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "i feel this is unlikely, i think some of this is more a reflection of the interests of the humans interacting with the models rather than the models ta...
Campbell Hutcheson
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,804,469,582
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
CampbellHutcheson
https://firebasestorage.…27a-29336c4bb2e3
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
null
0.46118
1.755249
NO
null
rh4k0fv0a3o
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "gg", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,805,048,659
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
11,535.374328
NO
9ybb6qt5kx
82nzdtu3m25
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Ken Michaels
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,717,805,231,845
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
null
0.50755
31,301.301209
NO
null
yd84fcgfx0m
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Exactly four? Or four or more…? What’s the protocol here ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": ...
Genzy
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,805,318,798
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
null
null
null
i00vkasuung
false
DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is that guy who got corn jokes at last year’s conference going to get cornholed again? Rationalussy or whatever?", "type": "text" } ...
Kevin Blawd
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,805,354,321
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
KevinBlaw
https://firebasestorage.…5ce-04ff22a11302
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
89.162169
NO
7ef68c4dd728
0dmynt5ksqfk
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yd84fcgfx0m", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Genzy
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,805,357,496
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
yd84fcgfx0m
null
null
null
null
s1uy7qrxbwk
false
d9vxoU9czxR8HkgfMdwwTmVBQ3y2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What happens if this is the tenth and final NO? N/A? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
Bence
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,805,357,743
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
bence
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY6q8sP8ydlU9daTxBnT6rxi4S_cnrdBUjDR2INFbY=s96-c
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
1,580.305609
YES
4p97m7n4z1
o3m17hqcuug
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "yd84fcgfx0m", "label": "Gen", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Pat Scott🩴
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,805,370,225
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
yd84fcgfx0m
null
6,517.92032
NO
9ybb6qt5kx
84paueityj8
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72", "label": "Mira_", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Daniel Tello
hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO
public
contract
1,717,805,438,353
how-many-traders-will-this-market-g
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
How many traders will this market get?
null
null
1,000.209637
NO
8cf62b48c791
89kp0bf8o79
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you have a iPhone 15 Pro?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Predictor 🔥
H0bVhKaCt4lCHlZPLpxP
public
contract
1,717,805,796,479
will-apples-ai-assistant-siri-stop
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will Apple's AI Assistant (Siri) stop being a joke before the second half of 2024?
null
0.408596
1,088.405032
YES
null
v9u9gwdbqsh
false
JDWfUBan8sfznLDCqOCavHToD5a2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
DP
4cZRK67eRwY3KIGZXDAZ
public
contract
1,717,805,947,770
will-a-mishap-investigation-be-requ
dp9000
https://firebasestorage.…9e7-7657a7df8de2
Will Starship Flight 4 result in an FAA mishap investigation?
null
0.128279
1,244.964859
NO
null
jwn2q36f8x8
false
ybGrV1mQatTS2hxTYpn9VD5cOvp2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Can be resolved, \"molochian\" mentioned", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Ansgar Dietrichs
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,805,959,736
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
ansgar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZS2dZJoiRXRwiXxQrLFjPbcKsGjUKS3shf1AzktFw=s96-c
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
52,084.31788
YES
7m7706q8cv
mmv6xoct63j
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "resolve yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Elliot
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,806,161,494
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
7,880.19645
YES
x6r6zu60n5
e5hwr2vm9rv
false
ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "84paueityj8", "label": "deagol", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Mira
hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO
public
contract
1,717,806,194,448
how-many-traders-will-this-market-g
Mira_
https://firebasestorage.…a88-086c65d9a93e
How many traders will this market get?
84paueityj8
null
0
NO
074ca8126e18
ij36728781n
false
Rcnau899SsWFEuL0ukY1hMGkath2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yep, someone said “bang”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alexander Miller
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,806,382,619
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
AlexanderMiller
https://firebasestorage.…b54-8f8eda824b90
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
9,191.109929
YES
i7nrt3x1cn
eymv0ey2wfi
false
X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "e5hwr2vm9rv", "label": "Mira_", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Daniel Tello
hqTQw1GX53g8obtHvgxO
public
contract
1,717,806,577,715
how-many-traders-will-this-market-g
deagol
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c
How many traders will this market get?
84paueityj8
null
1,000.209637
NO
8cf62b48c791
h72t8bifacc
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This happened with the crystal ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,806,816,941
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
32,775.922787
YES
i7nrt3x1cn
o02pkni3tlt
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,806,858,508
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
32,775.922787
YES
i7nrt3x1cn
bgbf6h72ich
false
4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I didn't hear any cracking?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Carson Gale
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,806,895,665
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
CarsonGale
https://firebasestorage.…ff3-a1fc33070eae
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
1,596.104201
YES
bcic4q6giz
ethg7w72rf7
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2DUMvA9R6nNXjQfyidwhKJitKBr2", "label": "NoaNabeshima", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "menti...
Bayesian
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,806,939,649
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
bgbf6h72ich
null
4,928.849521
YES
k7lvcfdfn9
mdkc72wdu2c
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i00vkasuung", "label": "KevinBlaw", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shelvacu
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,807,092,769
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
i00vkasuung
null
1,164.987894
NO
065fbd96fd63
ssco8a56j9j
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thank you all for participating!!!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "con...
Genzy
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,807,139,380
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
null
null
null
g5vvcnfomod
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I haven't actually rescheduled my flight yet, but I'm thinking of leaving monday or tuesday rather than friday", "type": "text" } ...
Shelvacu
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,807,174,447
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
null
null
null
null
null
qc0j0m6k4al
false
GmaScn1bXEaAgZvilcjmNxHS6qk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Aella is here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yoav Tzfati
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,807,536,993
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Crazytieguy
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-adaa38437cc0
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
771.67383
YES
6e36ae11cfc5
8bmeax6vago
false
U907XL5wZSQ0pD7pMXe2HaS0NR33
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I am here :) ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haven
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,807,942,961
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
HWH
https://firebasestorage.…c25-335c6547f4d1
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
132.42503
NO
54f7f848acad
sqvm4iva0ib
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "89kp0bf8o79", "label": "Predictor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Soli ꩜
H0bVhKaCt4lCHlZPLpxP
public
contract
1,717,808,008,234
will-apples-ai-assistant-siri-stop
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Will Apple's AI Assistant (Siri) stop being a joke before the second half of 2024?
89kp0bf8o79
0.408596
212.094743
YES
null
2vknu2q274q
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "misresolve imo! please confirm with the performers, maybe they have a different take on that moment ", "type": "text" }, { ...
Pat Scott🩴
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,808,016,529
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
null
null
6,517.92032
NO
9ybb6qt5kx
ayeeeh6dii
false
GmaScn1bXEaAgZvilcjmNxHS6qk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Eliezer is also here", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Yoav Tzfati
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,808,090,518
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Crazytieguy
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-adaa38437cc0
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
771.67383
YES
6e36ae11cfc5
w3anjazvh4p
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This happened ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Dan
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,808,108,146
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
525.246375
YES
64s9gey76v
wnya9eqo0tb
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2vknu2q274q", "label": "Stralor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Santeri
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,808,116,282
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
2vknu2q274q
null
1,719.854455
YES
4p97m7n4z1
cwjas189a7g
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "X3z4hxRXipWvGoFhxlDOVxmP5vL2", "label": "traders", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,808,196,483
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
1,353.533944
NO
bff58054cf45
u6lp7e8wpt
false
DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
TonyPepperoni 🪿
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,808,235,261
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
TonyPepperoni
https://firebasestorage.…884-fdf2cfdcaefb
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
527.749183
YES
66fd053f0cb0
mrlyw0m0j99
false
FwUZ6ImOMmY5Tc5RlxL6dammsuU2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Duncan?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Louis
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,808,342,951
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Thunderstar
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5i5tRwQycrz57qr_9mtg-51AflSWl8S2-Y_93f6Q=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,019.794961
NO
9dbcde390667
84cuil21o57
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "6pm", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": n...
Tony Gao
v22Njlfw54DZAgYuRTaX
public
contract
1,717,808,455,664
will-there-be-enough-soylent-at-man
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Will there be enough Soylent at Manifest 2?
null
0.89
405.277419
NO
null
2dxrth70sa6
false
BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Persuading humans of things seems like an easier task computationally, than doing science.", "type": "text" } ], "type": ...
Eli Tyre
gRkJsEFMbvzqpICdcJxP
public
contract
1,717,808,524,661
will-ai-be-capable-of-superhuman-pe
EliTyre
https://firebasestorage.…611-3602c52d07b0
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
null
0.700703
137.189794
YES
null
y1v2rqtvl6c
false
BM7WDql3V0fOWBtlc2s4ITzUPZ32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "EAPXrBG781tfVWuPGMh9", "label": "OnurcanYasar", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Eli Tyre
gRkJsEFMbvzqpICdcJxP
public
contract
1,717,808,551,157
will-ai-be-capable-of-superhuman-pe
EliTyre
https://firebasestorage.…611-3602c52d07b0
Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?
EAPXrBG781tfVWuPGMh9
0.700703
137.189794
YES
null
mvx3bgjighl
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qamvjy84dx", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO
public
contract
1,717,809,033,938
will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?
ab9jkfk4rv
null
null
null
null
57kedf7tl1
false
RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dofmhk0wrvd", "label": "huw", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
fish
7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
public
contract
1,717,809,070,749
will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f
kurt
https://firebasestorage.…ea6-9b4d3d6f8834
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
dofmhk0wrvd
0.680465
1,909.847529
NO
null
uaf4j9hn9l
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "mvx3bgjighl", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
D5b8H9yUWbE3wRSov3VO
public
contract
1,717,809,095,670
will-i-get-a-software-engineering-j-lgsrxz2nab
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will I get a software engineering job within 3 months?
ab9jkfk4rv
0.214729
371.385708
YES
null
ndos0pmw1u
false
4awgG8uHiJeyHswKCHMBZMHKcyu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2d62h51fvje", "label": "SimranRahman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Snarflak
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,717,809,098,523
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
Snarflak
https://firebasestorage.…441-21a1c85f3480
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2d62h51fvje
null
20.124993
YES
51e4cacd136a
qurflq5gqxm
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
nikki
yFclKzpKMk5wm9tzTGhp
public
contract
1,717,809,146,981
is-saultymunny-on-discord-actually
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Is saultymunny on Discord *actually* the host of Manifest Conference?
null
null
null
null
null
w2mmcxkabfr
false
cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Saul just confirmed to me he was “one of” the hosts of Manifest ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "...
Dan
yFclKzpKMk5wm9tzTGhp
public
contract
1,717,809,245,997
is-saultymunny-on-discord-actually
DanMan314
https://firebasestorage.…9e0-a993f643533a
Is saultymunny on Discord *actually* the host of Manifest Conference?
qurflq5gqxm
0.837749
19,495.830527
YES
null
3foac65rf2x
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hmm, my most successful market. Interesting…", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
N.C. Young
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,717,809,269,970
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
null
null
3,071.849311
NO
es8zfve7ax
f6v2xfd18m
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "3foac65rf2x", "label": "NcyRocks", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Savior of Plant
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,717,809,320,830
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
3foac65rf2x
null
60.064698
NO
kmdvt6o502
7ekag91aa6
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": " Caleb is not inactive so mods won't resolve for now - ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "fnuHBW8...
stefanie
yFclKzpKMk5wm9tzTGhp
public
contract
1,717,809,330,083
is-saultymunny-on-discord-actually
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Is saultymunny on Discord *actually* the host of Manifest Conference?
qurflq5gqxm
0.837749
1,784.801165
YES
null
5cprf8022t
false
bNaCDzi4STgSXOy5dOuOvhBxxoX2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You may resolve me as Yes.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Patrick McKenzie
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,809,345,884
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
patio11
https://firebasestorage.…96f-ed42aa2f80fd
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
23.756556
YES
2e86f62e69d3
z0s0ce26ut
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7ekag91aa6", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
nikki
yFclKzpKMk5wm9tzTGhp
public
contract
1,717,809,345,926
is-saultymunny-on-discord-actually
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Is saultymunny on Discord *actually* the host of Manifest Conference?
qurflq5gqxm
0.837749
3,509.80434
YES
null
gwbfxpng1ag
false
GB5hZnKVXCdbNXRJbJT1WFH6nQ02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "🎉", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
bh
DGIZAUSacYzUMKMOgeNP
public
contract
1,717,809,441,802
after-flying-out-from-australia-for
hamiltonianurst
https://firebasestorage.…2a9-1301b1e3dc4a
After flying out from Australia for LessOnline/camp, will me/my non-Rationalist GF be convinced to stay for manifest?
null
0.890306
2,479.480167
YES
null
avggfv9afzr
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "f6v2xfd18m", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
N.C. Young
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,717,809,448,337
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
3foac65rf2x
null
3,071.849311
NO
es8zfve7ax
xo6my8ih79d
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think if they fly the V2 this year with different positioning of flaps this has a legitimate chance ", "type": "text" } ], ...
notarealuser
jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
public
contract
1,717,810,211,204
will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
null
0.27
62.5
YES
null
1cj8y4nqqoi
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jyzwjjv2j7", "label": "SusanneinFrance", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
James Baker
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,810,314,911
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
jyzwjjv2j7
0.053407
86.563082
YES
null
r5yzayclwm8
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "label": "DanMan314", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention"...
Ziddletwix
Ju0UwZYr6XVbhU7w1esA
public
contract
1,717,810,325,395
who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Who will be a special guest/speaker at Manifest 2024?
null
null
5,274.236422
YES
61eb74d7e138
4i0t0sv994e
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, ...
John David Pressman
twxL4Eu6lMloQedRKQji
public
contract
1,717,810,327,959
will-marijuanna-be-removed-from-the
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Will marijuanna be removed from the Schedule I drug list before June 30, 2024?
null
0.186015
923.608568
NO
null
dw43agsidoe
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jyzwjjv2j7", "label": "SusanneinFrance", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,810,516,485
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
jyzwjjv2j7
null
null
null
null
v24k6pd4msg
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dw43agsidoe", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,810,537,618
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
jyzwjjv2j7
null
null
null
null
b8wk1g3cxgd
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "83hp8wcjsvo", "label": "EugeneBixby", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jackson polack
qTW7ZeOLOuA7xKiKbs6y
public
contract
1,717,810,540,369
will-ukrainian-forces-attempt-to-re
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Ukrainian forces attempt to retake Crimea in 2024?
83hp8wcjsvo
null
null
null
null
r5wecolnin
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v24k6pd4msg", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
chris (strutheo)
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,810,562,226
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
jyzwjjv2j7
null
null
null
null
sq5vtm2l14i
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "lqq7f928wy7", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jackson polack
V0ZXNKqhR0Q9RA7GNIBj
public
contract
1,717,811,281,747
will-google-bard-pass-chatgpt-in-nu
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will Google Bard pass ChatGPT in number of users before the end of Q1-2024?
pxfqyvy2hz
0.071748
-0
NO
null
i764y6m5axl
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wnya9eqo0tb", "label": "sanyero", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Tony Gao
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,811,438,591
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
2vknu2q274q
null
391.457602
NO
k7lvcfdfn9
kxp758v8648
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i764y6m5axl", "label": "TonyGao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Santeri
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,811,495,496
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
2vknu2q274q
null
1,719.854455
YES
4p97m7n4z1
1vf3wbdwkao
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i764y6m5axl", "label": "TonyGao", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Genzy
UECU0pNj5CUkFKQGhsjd
public
contract
1,717,811,514,603
sweepstakes-mania-prop-bets-duncans
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
SWEEPSTAKES MANIA PROP BETS (Duncan’s Manifest performance)
2vknu2q274q
null
null
null
null
kal84ymv7ol
false
fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
N.C. Young
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,811,911,108
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
NcyRocks
https://firebasestorage.…6b3-70181e9d9dc2
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
8,056.673092
YES
7b803e259083
b1f17mo8q6c
false
ntQa9hKfnRMdPyy4C242tPykGXg1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Updating the closing time to June 9th since WWDC starts on the 10th.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Dwaxe
dWVeSLVlr7OZW48jlFoU
public
contract
1,717,811,964,244
what-will-be-the-name-of-macos-15
Dwaxe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjJ6tgn98yYchUQgck8HyjzyvkYhq5czx8soxoztQ=s96-c
What will be the name of MacOS 15?
null
null
214
YES
356807ba286f
7w00oc1vdo9
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4eetscuenhy", "label": "BionicD0LPH1N", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jackson polack
u5ve0CXwIYg8hb1vLllv
public
contract
1,717,812,038,703
will-the-estimated-training-cost-of
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Will the estimated training cost of GPT-4 be over $50M?
stvqzkju6m8
null
null
null
null
xz3a5te8na
false
hXoxhZ7koFY3AfvsfcBlCr081jC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ndos0pmw1u", "label": "Snarflak", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Simran 🤍
ikSUiiNS8MwAI75RwEJf
public
contract
1,717,812,122,725
who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
SimranRahman
https://firebasestorage.…59c-fb117d1f5f71
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2d62h51fvje
null
6,136.326059
YES
33b8f3dc81b9
nfe94iggwmn
false
dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "They've apparently been around since 2019 (which was ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": nul...
duck_master
GX6ddmamuRUYjlqcAH0u
public
contract
1,717,812,258,026
will-21e8-ltd-ship-any-product-by-j
duck_master
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6
Will 21e8, Ltd, ship any product by June 5, 2025?
null
0.203644
111.563149
NO
null
0p56uf948av
false
yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "25zozu7qxgw", "label": "Quroe", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
case
rFCd2cbiQhCBDxNFTcQ6
public
contract
1,717,812,330,674
the-crystal-coin-flip
case
https://firebasestorage.…a3b-d765464b70da
The Crystal Coin Flip
25zozu7qxgw
null
null
null
null
k9gd6gij5b
false
9pduED6AAYSDeHBRRvMNxONVzMJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Yes, a corner ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": { "id": "yhvV0TjNf6bDzOBBZ5cHGu1sPlF3", "labe...
Quroe
rFCd2cbiQhCBDxNFTcQ6
public
contract
1,717,812,530,404
the-crystal-coin-flip
Quroe
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJg8aYkK2Eda5l9we4JJ_Q_wClTY2k9cHpy6jNUymbUB5RV=s96-c
The Crystal Coin Flip
25zozu7qxgw
null
null
null
null
lgqywxdzr0f
false
6CwPIJrQdNMswo07A0R19YILp363
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pretty easy to convert mana to spice on high % bets, this should happen soon", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
James Baker
YHtJ5IHG4snAe4xgasoe
public
contract
1,717,812,761,586
will-someone-have-100000-spice-this
JamesBaker3
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJIXXxq4jvmFQ8maL0xWNL0ga_m0OYY3WdNuv58HzdcwdI=s96-c
Will someone have 100,000 Spice this year?
null
0.830377
386.421688
YES
null
84fvwkeuplg
false
9E9IRkP3cocISKaf9EyoC3EPZHg2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "June 7: EZ was wearing a suit, but no jacket today. so Other.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
dusty
xKRb2Kosg55IYmOOemiT
public
contract
1,717,812,787,695
during-the-days-in-june-when-i-see
stardust2
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIbVZGqMvxy1yq6xJgCSUCR789Lgb1aMulLxZKUs4nPmsaEWg=s96-c
During the days in June when I see EZ, which color of suit jacket will EZ wear the most frequently?
null
null
7.521045
YES
oxicc5pbxx
byhb8k9w75
false
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Half inning down, tied 0 to 0", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
GfKytrvAc1XX0iUTzwjI
public
contract
1,717,812,960,137
who-will-win-tonights-minor-league
JoshuaB
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd
Who will win tonight’s Minor League Baseball game between the Stockton Ports and SJ Giants?
null
null
443.701796
NO
arcj4zk7eg
1x4vzpirrdq
false
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "byhb8k9w75", "label": "JoshuaB", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
GfKytrvAc1XX0iUTzwjI
public
contract
1,717,813,126,380
who-will-win-tonights-minor-league
JoshuaB
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd
Who will win tonight’s Minor League Baseball game between the Stockton Ports and SJ Giants?
byhb8k9w75
null
521.423277
YES
arcj4zk7eg
qx1i1he2yrf
false
Reojf0vF1KStl8jhf9dodil7Q433
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "4jd4mu53cup", "label": "SemioticRivalry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Douglas Campbell
YTIuuSsNRn2OlA4KykRM
public
contract
1,717,813,228,176
will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
DouglasCampbell
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy5vuO-IQmcBW2wAwiuRlMculoQM7ZrH_wXNxjQ=s96-c
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
4jd4mu53cup
0.933336
128.83885
YES
null
rvtma32w2wp
false
DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does lying count like last year!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Kevin Blawd
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,813,480,141
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
KevinBlaw
https://firebasestorage.…5ce-04ff22a11302
Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
null
null
null
null
null
s010dcuolz8
false
uSMp7YeHLwZmrEtqrqlgT41ds5K2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rvtma32w2wp", "label": "KevinBlaw", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Shelvacu
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,813,847,551
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
Shelvacu
https://firebasestorage.…a8d-63bc6f7bd3d2
Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
rvtma32w2wp
null
null
null
null
gxpb58asiw6
false
ILtwgh6DHfVTz9ymGCrbwqQXOBG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "IMO this is entirely a question about whether Jonathan Blow's next game (the sokoban-like puzzle game he is working on during his livestreams) earns ov...
Jackson Wagner
vV0Xt219rsTc2d9k92Rd
public
contract
1,717,813,894,920
will-a-game-programmed-jai-gross-mo
JacksonWagner
https://firebasestorage.…512-cdfd9ff98e37
Will a game programmed in Jai gross more than $10,000,000 before 2033?
null
null
null
null
null
4spsvlxbl5p
false
DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "You seemed To have put on 250 pounds since", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, ...
Kevin Blawd
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,813,938,120
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
KevinBlaw
https://firebasestorage.…5ce-04ff22a11302
Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
null
null
null
null
null
obz35vh3btm
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Ok this seems ambiguous enough that I wouldn't feel good resolving either way and people want their liquidity back, so unfortunately I'm gonna N/A. Thi...
Andrew G
f422ZIhxUC0QqQBiaKMQ
public
contract
1,717,814,148,703
will-openai-still-be-doing-superali
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Will OpenAI still be doing Superalignment in June 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
sv6004j83ah
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "obz35vh3btm", "label": "AndrewG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andrew G
f422ZIhxUC0QqQBiaKMQ
public
contract
1,717,814,178,366
will-openai-still-be-doing-superali
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Will OpenAI still be doing Superalignment in June 2024?
obz35vh3btm
null
null
null
null
jzu99gbf81j
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This is EOY 2024 right?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Arky
DJ31aNe7bH11EDgytT8C
public
contract
1,717,814,194,347
ukraine-warcasting-megamarket
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Ukraine warcasting megamarket
null
null
1,471.216744
NO
uxylx5ku90
0tjdlvfrsmgk
false
RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What metric are you using to determine the most popular?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Arky
54sXL6lzNoN0fmsXSHAW
public
contract
1,717,814,306,035
which-will-be-the-most-popular-hard
Arky
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c
Which will be the most popular hardware store of 2024
null
null
null
null
null
8x61rserrhv
false
ILtwgh6DHfVTz9ymGCrbwqQXOBG3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gxpb58asiw6", "label": "JacksonWagner", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jackson Wagner
vV0Xt219rsTc2d9k92Rd
public
contract
1,717,814,372,652
will-a-game-programmed-jai-gross-mo
JacksonWagner
https://firebasestorage.…512-cdfd9ff98e37
Will a game programmed in Jai gross more than $10,000,000 before 2033?
gxpb58asiw6
0.236104
1,134.463959
YES
null
9xizivukark
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Both events at max capacity", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,814,531,448
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
440.62767
YES
9c58d8c1d0d9
5qpbdisr0z3
false
1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "One all", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
GfKytrvAc1XX0iUTzwjI
public
contract
1,717,814,635,959
who-will-win-tonights-minor-league
JoshuaB
https://firebasestorage.…3b9-ee28a908e5dd
Who will win tonight’s Minor League Baseball game between the Stockton Ports and SJ Giants?
null
null
35.507597
NO
arcj4zk7eg
sfwpdj6eui
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "they have the same max capacity? or you're judging that their max capacity being the determining factor is bad", "type": "text" } ...
Bayesian
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,814,707,617
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
9xizivukark
null
359.178221
YES
86843e9e6c11
uk5pgpbax6b
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "does he strongly want to trade a shoe?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
5AloIDwmWqMkuaXMeDcn
public
contract
1,717,814,846,520
will-johnzellweger-trade-a-shoe-wit
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will @JohnZellweger trade a shoe with someone else at Manifest?
null
0.5
35.616555
NO
null
2rzujckzj7y
false
DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Will you swallow so much cum people think you love mayo?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "...
Kevin Blawd
PL28v6APNSQkXJXx4AFj
public
contract
1,717,815,018,569
how-many-people-will-i-have-sex-wit-66fb035f5fb3
KevinBlaw
https://firebasestorage.…5ce-04ff22a11302
Rationalussy 2: How many people will I have sex with while in SF for Manifest&Lessonline?
null
null
null
null
null
19t6y8r06im
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Rolling in the next 20 minutes, last call on bets", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
csiLcmuZ7B3XW3JIqNrE
public
contract
1,717,815,153,916
friday-dice-roll-what-number-will-t-kamg4s43m4
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Friday Dice roll - What number will they land on?
null
null
462.040735
YES
y0z844cyqk
eu7guo8f3ke
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "RIP again", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
N2GXFsf6ZhaSacKbuI40
public
contract
1,717,815,365,934
will-the-close-price-of-alphabet-in-0qppbwxmco
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will the close price of Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) be higher than the previous day? [Closes early]
null
null
102.455063
YES
x4coldsomm