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l8shc0vj3ni
false
XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "That outcome could be manipulated so easily.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Schwabilismus
CDuYbTQ0Q9ABXoE12xHP
public
contract
1,717,827,814,666
will-they-fold-1000-paper-cranes-at
Schwabilismus
https://firebasestorage.…7ac-9e48249d8120
Will they fold 1000 paper cranes at Summer Camp and Manifest 2024?
null
0.15
736.304321
NO
null
hrsjy1i7srj
false
HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Hurricanes defeat the Rebels in QF2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": null, "co...
Julian Lees
ZWpPIznAbOYc4nAe8TCa
public
contract
1,717,827,815,551
which-teams-will-reach-the-semifina
JulianLees
https://firebasestorage.…58b-f92834687237
Which teams will reach the semifinals of Super Rugby Pacific 2024?
null
null
576.119704
YES
a65e5def0c5d
rfl2occtgam
false
eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe he's saving it for Manifest proper. What if the Crystal Coin Flip is the final scene of the movie?", "type": "text" } ], ...
Plasma Ballin'
gfQm1Qv6rxCt8O0DlY74
public
contract
1,717,827,834,150
manifest-2024-lessonline-summer-cam
PlasmaBallin
https://firebasestorage.…942-444e233b50a5
Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
null
null
230.274208
YES
360fc361a4a4
ur0ud5gduy
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "z2q2ff06up", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Alex
5AloIDwmWqMkuaXMeDcn
public
contract
1,717,827,981,474
will-johnzellweger-trade-a-shoe-wit
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Will @JohnZellweger trade a shoe with someone else at Manifest?
uk5pgpbax6b
0.393133
8.141476
NO
null
asrn0aw1zkn
false
P9zNCU4szGRHC9zB4OJCAx07nGh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "what the fuck how are ai bros this level of been a loser wtf", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type...
azzy
3lknqUQSl1Q7ILLcBuFP
public
contract
1,717,828,196,744
will-ai-displace-social-drinking-wi
megacoolness
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL10IWHJGvOpefnMfWpjdnJ6lMSu0mkg9JowjaxCCneZQE=s96-c
Will AI displace social drinking within 5 years?
null
null
null
null
null
k3hilf1246
false
FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vvx8zts37kf", "label": "CampbellHutcheson", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Savior of Plant
zV8ne3PjikV6usd6mDAT
public
contract
1,717,828,505,323
will-openai-report-an-incident-toda-zpsicwv24d
SaviorofPlant
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c
Will OpenAI report an incident today? June 2024
vvx8zts37kf
null
10.197361
YES
zwi7mjz5ks
s2y4btr3q27
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t3rl83g8te", "label": "TiredCliche", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
public
contract
1,717,828,641,792
will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
t3rl83g8te
0.989993
13,215.93164
YES
null
twohy9a98pl
false
PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": "KYjMmwk6yhzhmjHd2JLS,Dg65t0iMagw37ACIBARy,5CgaQTO8I5GlhxW9T1M3,l1oo5Zl06ZYEc6GXJJxH,6IuhtY5OQLgcIA3wxgND", "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "h...
Lisa Marsh
TQtbOp0LqYL1lEztQjXj
public
contract
1,717,828,952,568
uk-genreal-election-2024-will-refor
lisamarsh
https://firebasestorage.…baf-262c369f8514
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
null
0.6
294.541306
NO
null
4s4r4ratn6o
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "important poll 🐾", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
7SW4vvcroQ7tjmuL2x7l
public
contract
1,717,829,008,012
steve
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Steve
null
null
null
null
null
yew3hxf24aj
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Tony Gao
v22Njlfw54DZAgYuRTaX
public
contract
1,717,829,172,368
will-there-be-enough-soylent-at-man
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Will there be enough Soylent at Manifest 2?
null
0.650382
598.996566
NO
null
c7hbsred3r9
false
cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If you say yes you’re crazy ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Genzy
IlCzmzzis4z3c2ChZUmh
public
contract
1,717,829,395,318
would-you-have-sex-with-a-squirtle
Gen
https://firebasestorage.…bad-76d96081176f
Would you have sex with a Squirtle?
null
null
null
null
null
leimfiw5dhp
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "from manifest ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt": null, "cont...
chris (strutheo)
TkrdYdguFvdOVIaln0eY
public
contract
1,717,829,521,046
will-the-average-manifolder-say-the-fys2pw6sjn
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will the average Manifolder say they're willing to have sex with a Squirtle?
null
null
null
null
null
nfu4kofbge
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
chris (strutheo)
IlCzmzzis4z3c2ChZUmh
public
contract
1,717,829,556,887
would-you-have-sex-with-a-squirtle
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Would you have sex with a Squirtle?
null
null
null
null
null
0ere2yzdr03p
false
MXQ9OQtKx6UBfpZzJU7MsF3KyWw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Was going to bet 'no', but then I saw I was listed as a potential judge / relevant opinion haver. I'll let this comment register my prediction without ...
Quintin Pope
XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3
public
contract
1,717,829,790,508
will-jailbreaks-in-large-language-m
QuintinPope
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZgS71prrkK33Sf9FgiBuefIVhecj3yF1-M017d=s96-c
Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
wlwkgwozfu
false
3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gjpfbkno83a", "label": "Fion", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Isar Bhattacharjee
yd6KQEvelfUkvh63pitL
public
contract
1,717,829,920,050
will-the-next-uk-general-election-t
IsarBhattacharjee
https://firebasestorage.…6f1-80ab799d77f3
Will the next UK general election take place before 1 September 2024?
gjpfbkno83a
null
0
YES
5e4d71839764
h7kncyz5w76
false
3g2YL3TsEBeQvzKmkdFVNnYSWBu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "zydgacpdncs", "label": "Noit", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Isar Bhattacharjee
yd6KQEvelfUkvh63pitL
public
contract
1,717,829,942,865
will-the-next-uk-general-election-t
IsarBhattacharjee
https://firebasestorage.…6f1-80ab799d77f3
Will the next UK general election take place before 1 September 2024?
zydgacpdncs
null
0
YES
5e4d71839764
zq718fd9j4
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ur0ud5gduy", "label": "Alex", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Bayesian
5AloIDwmWqMkuaXMeDcn
public
contract
1,717,830,048,905
will-johnzellweger-trade-a-shoe-wit
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will @JohnZellweger trade a shoe with someone else at Manifest?
uk5pgpbax6b
0.393133
35.616555
NO
null
sj1q331n0m
false
P0fVh3e0WONPRPFj9JkBkZMLEv53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The tricky thing here is that we don't know how you come up with your lower end.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph...
Chris Leong
7XpKDpeKw1paYi1IGR3Y
public
contract
1,717,830,066,919
what-will-the-low-end-of-my-pdoom-b
ChrisLeong
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHR4tKxtHlc_Z38jYMwosbtR218Lw6ypWNw-GKx8yca644=s96-c
What will the low end of my p(doom) be after LessOnline + Manifest ?
null
null
null
null
null
1kdkas06hcx
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So the NovaTech scam is currently estimated at exactly USD 1 billion and tops the leaderboard (", "type": "text" }, { ...
Martin Modrák
4MaN1A1DglFSA4tKkgm0
public
contract
1,717,830,145,859
will-there-be-a-usd-1-billion-or-mo
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG)
null
null
null
null
null
0vbaf6k4ebmf
false
P6S5rDrKA9d5tWUdvS7yATJeyEJ3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "So we have a USD 1 billion entry: ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks...
Martin Modrák
UpseGbpY89xbSPkFFtP9
public
contract
1,717,830,201,186
total-value-of-crypto-stolenscammed-6b1bf3d71866
MartinModrak
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7HFP_PK_TNWTfx75ktiZyS7SJm0vXCF_lL54T-BA=s96-c
Total value of crypto stolen/scammed between May 16th and Jun 15th as tracked by Molly White (W3IGG)
null
null
null
null
null
7tsmxqc5kj7
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Pickle to me", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
WWJjUMfB5xTM1HSz7p5i
public
contract
1,717,830,313,496
first-person-to-say-pickle-to-me-wi
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
First person to say pickle to me wins 2k mana.
null
null
null
null
null
in5r40cdnbh
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are mana payments re-enabled?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
XHUj0lNyEo4hQZhV2xMb
public
contract
1,717,830,401,707
manifest-dollar-auction
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Manifest dollar auction
null
null
null
null
null
9g3ez842nas
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does it resolve no or n/a if a topic doesn't come up?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
njoGXomKgzgNwP9A0mAP
public
contract
1,717,830,476,393
during-manifoldlol-will-the-audienc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
During manifold.lol, will the audience laugh at a joke about this topic?
null
null
null
null
null
71iwo4kbl1w
false
SjGUx6SlbwU4ue0BVjxxaMuygsA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7tsmxqc5kj7", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Elliot
WWJjUMfB5xTM1HSz7p5i
public
contract
1,717,830,551,068
first-person-to-say-pickle-to-me-wi
Elliot_dev
https://firebasestorage.…675-27cfa49c3d4e
First person to say pickle to me wins 2k mana.
7tsmxqc5kj7
null
null
null
null
t3gqzx1xf8
false
V2L0CT6C67gyE10F56RkVNUsFT02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "a healthy and wonderful dog ", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ ...
ABDULKADIR ABUBAKAR MASAU
HhlN2uJlmVqtr9GfKn5u
public
contract
1,717,830,844,734
will-my-dog-kome-learn-to-sit-after
ABDULKADIRABUBAKARMASAU
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKbqPqseQNzvdhXEwMF4_gCm1h23uK-w_aVqSnzhggQkzBGSA=s96-c
Will my dog Kome learn to sit after an hour of teaching?
null
null
null
null
null
0kabsy80dg4
false
HYKavv7hgWhxCCsziWEifoxOdjA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if they move them? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Daniel
MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
public
contract
1,717,831,110,135
will-the-shape-of-starships-flaps-h
Daniel_MC
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaQGTfUoEbrPqZn0U9_IjEWIouF64_J7fnacyXbRg=s96-c
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
null
null
null
null
null
t4hw6hy68f
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "it is raining accd to genzy and salty! we are here ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" ...
chris (strutheo)
5pHZv7GTmNI2GGTsO5OK
public
contract
1,717,831,419,656
will-it-rain-at-manifest-2024
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
Will it rain at Manifest 2024?
null
0.92089
444.782442
YES
null
vftem586rx
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It gon happen. No I will not elaborate. (leaves)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
phE0iytkWneMVrmWp3IX
public
contract
1,717,831,834,168
will-any-ai-model-be-capable-of-inv
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?
null
0.095175
9.85544
YES
null
tja0oovg11
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vftem586rx", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
phE0iytkWneMVrmWp3IX
public
contract
1,717,831,867,571
will-any-ai-model-be-capable-of-inv
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?
vftem586rx
0.095175
9.85544
YES
null
2xa38w9qekr
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Not looking great... I added 2 more.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Alex
ThWvfp6FEZNU53qDuB8L
public
contract
1,717,831,873,039
will-i-double-my-twitterx-followers
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
Will I double my Twitter/X followers in 2024?
null
0.412333
18.500068
NO
null
c6gs2oxlmrm
false
2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "0kabsy80dg4", "label": "Daniel_MC", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Josh Wilkes
MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
public
contract
1,717,832,408,219
will-the-shape-of-starships-flaps-h
JoshuaWilkes
https://firebasestorage.…516-65b151c295c8
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
0kabsy80dg4
0.471936
91.198697
NO
null
sydc4k2xx09
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this a typo for 'be' or do you mean just will you place any Manifold bets during the event?", "type": "text" } ], "typ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
l4OY578gGnVIrKYdwCdS
public
contract
1,717,832,435,790
will-i-bet-at-manifest-2024
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will I bet at Manifest 2024?
null
null
null
null
null
2zkuvjccjn9
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "well-played", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
DKrgR35xAlmCSzU1rVhY
public
contract
1,717,832,588,095
what-day-will-this-market-resolve
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What day will this market resolve?
null
null
null
null
null
e5jynepn8c
false
0wZ0MmJzG9RL7OnjbqYydNeZXjv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It did in fact rain", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
colorednoise
5pHZv7GTmNI2GGTsO5OK
public
contract
1,717,832,603,099
will-it-rain-at-manifest-2024
colorednoise
https://firebasestorage.…7c5-3d0b33690749
Will it rain at Manifest 2024?
null
0.943421
3,276.560765
YES
null
rdo9gs3n8w
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Who is Cantor in this context?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
ijpfhPxNh9smPZpfsr0t
public
contract
1,717,832,841,046
will-cantors-teeth-finish-settling
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will Cantor's teeth finish settling on their own if he stops orthodontics?
null
null
null
null
null
lsaxdo72xfc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2u4674for1i", "label": "NickAllenc961", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
b19j6NT4kCCQMCTR3jgy
public
contract
1,717,832,930,358
will-humans-become-extinct-in-2400
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Will Humans become extinct in 2400?
fh4rd2elowm
null
null
null
null
nafur39jr5
false
sraIaZDYHQVCaXDlzL73phGjm5j2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "is this the daily global average temperature or by which measure?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], ...
kuki
8WvobuEpJHRMvpCzcPK0
public
contract
1,717,832,974,285
will-june-2024-be-the-hottest-june
kuki
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKThZa9-QxQfA-qSBfSijR61GYUTrBdYW3GTKOasoLpNYBsmYbP=s96-c
Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record?
null
null
null
null
null
inf3ycz5vgc
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "71iwo4kbl1w", "label": "Elliot_dev", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
WWJjUMfB5xTM1HSz7p5i
public
contract
1,717,833,011,316
first-person-to-say-pickle-to-me-wi
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
First person to say pickle to me wins 2k mana.
7tsmxqc5kj7
null
null
null
null
55yoehy1qpb
false
jG6jdINhZ2O7DmqUddB9cybjdUc2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The Netherlands already voted, and while the official result will only be announced on Sunday, we seemingly already know that Volt got one seat, and th...
Ludwig Bald
sVC0wCbwsOi2TPBEjMMf
public
contract
1,717,833,114,314
how-many-seats-will-volt-europa-hol
LudwigBald
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpdAg-oPQf3A6u2xC_7JJtocc_1tFMo_JAoBMaahtM=s96-c
How many seats will Volt Europa hold in the EP after the 2024 elections?
null
null
167.236018
YES
6ac6311ffef4
mhdo3p8n41j
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I think this should resolve NO, if the external shape of the flaps doesn't change, merely their location", "type": "text" } ], ...
Bayesian
MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
public
contract
1,717,833,413,719
will-the-shape-of-starships-flaps-h
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
0kabsy80dg4
0.471936
1,127.527656
NO
null
ceoni6ts44e
false
0VON2byWgyS10VCUa9X3HX4s1t32
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "c6gs2oxlmrm", "label": "JoshuaWilkes", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Gordan Knott
MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
public
contract
1,717,833,705,630
will-the-shape-of-starships-flaps-h
GordanKnott
https://firebasestorage.…14a-c87addf6031a
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
0kabsy80dg4
null
null
null
null
yzzd4qz0hal
false
7XGrTPYHE2WgHJSne6kxRVseLdo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "am389iasn8f", "label": "Ziddletwix", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Charlie
DUv8ftjMInHAbp7UgwqJ
public
contract
1,717,834,343,737
will-furiosa-a-mad-max-saga-2024-ha
Charlie
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiMOGvT0wihOCke38p23uPRigh10h-RZZBoj5Wkkcs=s96-c
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >X%?
xf14guu9lh
null
145.342933
NO
89ca58589f52
6u4cl1nln0v
false
9gBkOzYZQAUG7Mj7EFTFFza0lw22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I don't understand what you're trying to say at all, and probably no one else does either, since no one here is betting on it 🫤", "type": "t...
Jan
2Og7JFEbGDRnb7aLNgEw
public
contract
1,717,834,577,342
agis-consensus-definition-reaches-a
Jan53274
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZcSW6bpjqDQvELRglfn-UDKtyWOEMRwTOdJHuRLELfCA=s96-c
AGI's consensus definition reaches alignment as follows: current tests + new tests in planning+reasoning capabilities
null
null
null
null
null
hvh0o2b3czp
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tja0oovg11", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
John David Pressman
phE0iytkWneMVrmWp3IX
public
contract
1,717,835,088,574
will-any-ai-model-be-capable-of-inv
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Will any AI model be capable of involuntarily hypnotizing human beings by EoY 2025?
vftem586rx
null
null
null
null
25n8kxq1qss
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "15xfb1lr6bt", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,835,356,514
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
lucl25z8n5b
false
hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "havent seen any yet, does someone have", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
chris (strutheo)
9eDK3nny1QPGkdtFZe56
public
contract
1,717,837,015,167
manifest-bingo-what-will-i-experien
strutheo
https://firebasestorage.…a8a-874f55f21b3d
🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
null
null
1,392.751953
YES
jrqfkzypkz
nwwawel6si
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "25n8kxq1qss", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,837,071,829
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
0dz26kn76sj7
false
hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8stamlu4wdj", "label": "AndrewMcKnight", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Pat Scott🩴
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,837,332,979
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Stralor
https://firebasestorage.…6fe-53e90fa501ca
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
8stamlu4wdj
null
2,162.761365
YES
68bd808c2fa2
fojwcwdw7vr
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "25n8kxq1qss", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,837,381,653
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
ls6yq7lgme
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nwwawel6si", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,837,972,255
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
njn16wvh9s
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "fojwcwdw7vr", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,838,466,851
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
6pechmi0bpa
false
rQPOELuW5zaapaNPnBYQBMoonk92
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "These questions tend to be more of a weird sort of discussion board than an actual market. I think the main consequence of a massive subsidy would be m...
Tumbles ♠︎ Misses Manifold
03JkrctMNrVKNTJBbxFW
public
contract
1,717,838,535,953
-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c
Tumbles
https://firebasestorage.…8aa-654bdc115c8d
💎🔮💎 What question will I use my free crystal on? 💎🔮💎
null
null
1,487.558028
YES
dfizjv5bzs
t7k86cnb2p
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ls6yq7lgme", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,838,616,129
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
bqi2u5hbkbq
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ls6yq7lgme", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,838,826,664
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
kejfarc7u5
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "njn16wvh9s", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,839,180,028
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
jxpno3jklw
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ls6yq7lgme", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,839,447,791
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
cxyykwb4ej
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "kejfarc7u5", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,839,646,169
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
qvdp8sdev1n
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "jxpno3jklw", "label": "CyfralCoot", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,839,832,982
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
6lejk8f11q
false
xh2QtJ0WuKQFK3nyXsxDRxBhqYB3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "q6uk3pi1dhl", "label": "Hyperlincoln", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
IY
n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk
public
contract
1,717,839,935,270
will-biden-make-any-gaffes-during-h
vitamind
https://firebasestorage.…977-5917b2772a78
Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference?
zicgsnvydu
0.911853
1,048.092402
YES
null
0zefdn56zamf
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qvdp8sdev1n", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,840,554,661
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
olcx12n5izb
false
PAbRiiLh2KVClsU5dtGJKD6lkTZ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qvdp8sdev1n", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
CyfralCoot
TCO3qr8RYFyd9ZkKdR6e
public
contract
1,717,840,865,333
inspire-me-and-take-my-mana
CyfralCoot
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKI3yTx-AtDSYdSKAGsu6w8QaNcVLkzQ7O2KxAxfMFh-A=s96-c
bounty: inspire me and take my mana.
15xfb1lr6bt
null
null
null
null
8qwtqrhhc0h
false
ZO9qSVVstZgzKNToBWDYibeBW8P2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Update: Down to 700 again", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andri
ckXjJM5798ndk6IsL6c7
public
contract
1,717,841,018,670
will-i-get-a-chess-rating-of-1000-i
andri
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfHeGd_f3weXHQGNPF2fxvAezw2jBBMQXNlzd1tkV2szg=s96-c
Will I get a chess rating of 1000+ in 2024?
null
0.800674
130.492291
YES
null
5hgqavrpdk
false
cWrPMCVn8WPabacghrYOU8mGGGF3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It took a while but we have a winner!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Oskar
7578UT8qujG6AorznU8S
public
contract
1,717,841,106,533
who-will-be-the-first-one-to-finish
nollfem
https://firebasestorage.…ed3-456eeb0513f5
Who will be the first one to finish Deep Dip 2?
null
null
1,061.313044
YES
e9206125efb5
0tz45acc9lld
false
xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wimge4p4kkk", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Soli ꩜
Lg3p94BIaroWP5A0c0Sf
public
contract
1,717,841,158,039
is-this-real-gpt45
Soli
https://firebasestorage.…8d8-036e569a957f
Is gpt2-chatbot OpenAI's next-generation model (e.g. GPT-4.5, GPT-5, etc.)
wimge4p4kkk
0.197797
0
YES
null
n8rdr1fh3zf
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If aimed at a testing site, will likely cause less than 10 civilian deaths.", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Kongo Landwalker
DJ31aNe7bH11EDgytT8C
public
contract
1,717,841,272,261
ukraine-warcasting-megamarket
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Ukraine warcasting megamarket
null
null
607.623698
YES
mfrilp0un9
xqzfj1m8k2j
false
saz6JvvXt2Woe0iXUTBz3KqCQ863
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "If anyone is curious, after more than 6 months of waiting Telegram support still haven't responded.", "type": "text" } ], ...
MayMeta
ekrk5wFWslDtp1vSkInG
public
contract
1,717,841,374,721
will-telegram-fix-maymeta-s-account
MayMeta
https://firebasestorage.…09c-35ff0b5c20eb
Will Telegram fix @MayMeta 's account by end of 2023?
null
0
3,308.717304
NO
null
f7n28nw44ds
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "overrated and bad are not the same thing, when's the last time you heard someone say null pointers are awesome and more languages should have them", ...
jackson polack
7sMmoXCJkRw1XR66HUyP
public
contract
1,717,841,514,012
are-these-programming-language-feat
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
Are these programming language features underrated or overrated?
null
null
null
null
null
sshuawaitc
false
LYR0RNU6uJMXbBy1qBeGGmMdwgQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "This market should close the minute before WWDC 2024 starts, if not it is easy to cheat and trade the second the hardware (if any) is announced before ...
Axel Røthing-Cano
t7Ewym4a84h1HwAnaWmL
public
contract
1,717,841,896,091
will-apple-announce-new-hardware-at
AxelRthingCano
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIE6mwkmvbgtS7eiZMufNbLwUDjzzA3Ie-r2-IfHNcp=s96-c
Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC 2024?
null
0.257952
264.578626
NO
null
xasw7s4dwcn
false
qIjH5KDOG9WVsa3265yCTICxHjx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "bswcyi7m79j", "label": "Fion", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Qoiuoiuoiu
yu2nQM7IQo8IiW7YAjYf
public
contract
1,717,842,106,585
the-market-1-year-will-the-average
Qoiuoiuoiu
https://firebasestorage.…2ea-1eb85c642bfa
"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?
bswcyi7m79j
0.442063
3,616.620224
NO
null
m92j1kfgm8
false
9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dd7tn9hnmkv", "label": "SaviorofPlant", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Kongo Landwalker
0E0MJfPh7MxInsKSjmhV
public
contract
1,717,842,217,343
is-your-pdoom-currently-between-10
KongoLandwalker
https://firebasestorage.…335-755c19fad97f
Is your P(Doom) currently between 10% and 90%? (By 2050)
dd7tn9hnmkv
null
null
null
null
j4a15mo5wf
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7dks4nthjen", "label": "KongoLandwalker", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Christopher Randles
vHgWjP8xwUXXOdlBM4wq
public
contract
1,717,842,936,688
simultaneouspredictor-chess-will-wh
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Manifold plays simultaneous predictor chess, will white win?
7dks4nthjen
0.644395
128.792262
YES
null
czvizjstdjo
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "r4jxp2210zq", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
yfyPBZNkCMZiffCyICSj
public
contract
1,717,842,971,246
manifold-leadership-approval-rating
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]
pnmzh02t9sb
0.37
25.854569
YES
null
604frivgqeo
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Relevant polls, seems like it's about half :)", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { ...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
bzHrbHWS3hxM2xIdkjH2
public
contract
1,717,843,275,472
what-percent-of-manifold-markets-us
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
What percent of Manifold Markets users are affiliated with the EA community? (Permanent)
null
0.255007
163.913531
YES
null
4uqir1arg3d
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What if the flap shape doesn't change but the joint covers do?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
Mqrius
MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
public
contract
1,717,843,436,395
will-the-shape-of-starships-flaps-h
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
null
null
null
null
null
e8pw0s0vimw
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Maybe better suited for this market?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { "attrs": { "alt...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,843,737,080
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
158.00125
NO
8gqgoka43j
rph0a2wkhf
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,717,843,907,713
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
984.937059
NO
g9q1rdqb6n
cencyr0tiyf
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,717,843,914,659
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
6kzhcj8qcnf
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,717,843,953,980
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
u4de4v1n0b
false
dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Base
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,717,843,961,081
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
Base
https://firebasestorage.…816-54142cec3137
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
984.937059
NO
g9q1rdqb6n
1p77xyzd03e
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,717,843,964,529
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
8c5muqdusy
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "x9l7rgkizm", "label": "chrisjbillington", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Mqrius
jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
public
contract
1,717,844,005,668
will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
gakozftqodf
null
null
null
null
mhnnjjhi62f
true
xVf5mxjIgHWPBHnFko05fqtsOft1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
FairlyRandom
NBNz5u6thHlYfyDBD8FA
public
contract
1,717,844,015,004
how-many-hits-after-30-days-v2
FairlyRandom
https://firebasestorage.…00d-eb2b72450393
How many hits after 30 days? V2
null
null
null
null
null
b38au7i3mh9
false
ZxeJ69vdBeN4qoUJ1Sf9JZjPYgF2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "xl1nww8rq2", "label": "josh", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
KiWiiU
iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4
public
contract
1,717,844,155,842
will-the-nintendo-switch-2-have-the
KiWiiU
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJZvAtIf79h7TzS-fEoD5CT_JPUPi6MDOpjCGT11lh-UW0t1SJl=s96-c
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch?
xl1nww8rq2
0.85196
153.527487
YES
null
js5wgypckrh
false
nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Does a Maybe or a Kinda count?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Mqrius
rJzdlh3kn4o2i8HywXld
public
contract
1,717,844,288,610
will-there-be-silksong-news-this-mo
Mqrius
https://firebasestorage.…af0-8c35c7e89dda
Will there be Silksong news this month?
null
null
null
null
null
g1c1a2qqqq
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8c5muqdusy", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
Christopher Randles
jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
public
contract
1,717,845,138,676
will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
gakozftqodf
0.1983
142.857143
NO
null
nf9j3a2ff0l
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "banner image says it all lol", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
r2d1778J3OmdBYuXeVuC
public
contract
1,717,845,198,284
would-you-rather-live-in-brave-new
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Would you rather live in Brave New World or 1984
null
null
null
null
null
ug4j7clxso
false
HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "All matches won by the bookie's favourites", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Julian Lees
ZWpPIznAbOYc4nAe8TCa
public
contract
1,717,845,763,779
which-teams-will-reach-the-semifina
JulianLees
https://firebasestorage.…58b-f92834687237
Which teams will reach the semifinals of Super Rugby Pacific 2024?
null
null
576.119704
YES
a65e5def0c5d
n284urzhm28
false
Rq5KrjZr1Eg7uoHvudBVBOnbao42
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6z73gl796os", "label": "Tomoffer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Finn
SEQyattwFhw3qukWSl8v
public
contract
1,717,845,976,485
uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9
finn
https://firebasestorage.…cab-3f50b0a3feba
UK General Election - which party will win the second most seats?
6z73gl796os
null
1,984.047101
YES
1b323f311a69
g0b1xd6owog
false
JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "js5wgypckrh", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ibozz91
rJzdlh3kn4o2i8HywXld
public
contract
1,717,846,421,318
will-there-be-silksong-news-this-mo
Ibozz91
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c
Will there be Silksong news this month?
js5wgypckrh
null
null
null
null
jbo2bz19oum
false
v2DENYjeaSTAMytc2vNxYtMYPuz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Supposedly if one talks to GPT-4 base with any regularity it will say thi...
komplexkonjugat
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,846,793,902
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
komplexkonjugat
https://firebasestorage.…51b-bd51663a85a0
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
null
null
null
null
null
c8v6sd1m43o
false
T2aOrjx1sJMVQeHFWdKaQeTrNYe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "wuety3n4lb8", "label": "LuisCostigan", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Crissman Loomis
y7bJWlqgq6bTmYzH5nQT
public
contract
1,717,846,935,007
longevity-expert-death-pool-which-l
CrissmanLoomis
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7tbB1GiaIFOka7xVzWIrnZSBrVVEnXmnVxBymXF64=s96-c
Longevity Expert Death Pool: which longevity expert will die the youngest?
plk5eq5q55k
null
106.615091
NO
97a5cf33a1d7
f9mqq2cb8dh
false
6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Tyler
cUOurcNrp3XX9tbDu6zH
public
contract
1,717,847,310,108
biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e
Tyler31
https://firebasestorage.…369-1e31d65cea92
Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (RCP Currently Trump +0.5%)
null
null
2,505.602388
NO
83c2f970bf4e
n2p0u3shjjq
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "t3rl83g8te", "label": "TiredCliche", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Predictor 🔥
nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
public
contract
1,717,847,336,401
will-trump-beat-biden-in-national-p
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
t3rl83g8te
0.989991
386.758244
YES
null
prwp20eo84n
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sq5vtm2l14i", "label": "jacksonpolack", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Gaz Downright
V0ZXNKqhR0Q9RA7GNIBj
public
contract
1,717,847,546,153
will-google-bard-pass-chatgpt-in-nu
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Will Google Bard pass ChatGPT in number of users before the end of Q1-2024?
pxfqyvy2hz
0.071748
897.15017
NO
null
tz6eeu6sll
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hvitng2hv4", "label": "GazDownright", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
IwRKDGl5YZEGxZCs17Sk
public
contract
1,717,848,140,314
which-country-will-abolish-its-mona
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
Which country will abolish monarchy next?
x5n0dz1yh7o
null
null
null
null
8ok4j9ay5px
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tz6eeu6sll", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Gaz Downright
IwRKDGl5YZEGxZCs17Sk
public
contract
1,717,848,221,702
which-country-will-abolish-its-mona
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Which country will abolish monarchy next?
x5n0dz1yh7o
null
null
null
null
gexk5580jrs
false
a4Y150jRVKWdZnH0wnciZuENtjN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "wasn't this done by the neocon cold war US government? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "d...
The All Memeing Eye ♠️
P9s56FK7i1yBgNiOAzew
public
contract
1,717,848,226,349
leftwing-or-rightwing-which-personc
TheAllMemeingEye
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKHq72qrRXesE4B-F3ThIh_PIHc6roe5lLTOYJ8jGqrxZQ=s96-c
Left-Wing or Right-Wing? Which person/character/concept will Manifold think are "Right-Wing" this week?
null
null
51.960245
YES
d65c76f11dd5
cnh0qlba3cq
false
OHvIOwRKcLMkDx0GQDkeBpwfASI2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Since the comment period for the removal will last beyond the end of June, it is improbable that it will be removed by then. I'll wait until the end of...
Rick Blevins
twxL4Eu6lMloQedRKQji
public
contract
1,717,848,740,660
will-marijuanna-be-removed-from-the
RickBlevins
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKkxmKkkj9WcUwZRcO9bIR581d61Rs7htF0GtWB14euYZSw=s96-c
Will marijuanna be removed from the Schedule I drug list before June 30, 2024?
null
0.087586
226.136471
YES
null
3o0pbinqvb2
false
nsrFthgmf4YAnxy0rKGxQtIKq0A2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tz6eeu6sll", "label": "BrunoParga", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Gaz Downright
IwRKDGl5YZEGxZCs17Sk
public
contract
1,717,848,910,874
which-country-will-abolish-its-mona
GazDownright
https://firebasestorage.…03d-44c57f8e25b1
Which country will abolish monarchy next?
x5n0dz1yh7o
null
null
null
null
om2jyzbdteb
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "finer resolution:", "type": "text" }, { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, ...
Christopher Randles
M2QqbxhM9tScUEerv0yO
public
contract
1,717,849,607,875
when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
When will there be a 5th Starship launch?
null
null
null
null
null