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i8xloay9k7s
false
rcxJUyIV5MemJV3JtMSZSPjd1n53
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ng98d0yxil", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bruno
AJX909fjJknukKUl3tgc
public
contract
1,717,885,239,338
what-are-the-top-frictions-preventi
BrunoParga
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcp4YClws611x-pjPwaG6BghkC9GDfS4J-yHY8qAoQ8z70=s96-c
What are the top frictions preventing wider adoption of forecasting best practices?
ng98d0yxil
null
null
null
null
fazrig0y63e
false
KNqZAiItmVTCX0LzUcj8Twg7tnh1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "label": "strutheo", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
snazzlePop
yIsVQbDKnLuBAy26zFtE
public
contract
1,717,885,277,534
will-there-be-an-israelhamas-ceasef-608befab6d23
snazzlePop
https://firebasestorage.…4df-4312e7a7f92b
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June 7th?
null
0.01
5,186.925037
NO
null
vnjpt8mjtj
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Isn't there a qr code for free 10k mana?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,885,616,827
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
436.589462
NO
86843e9e6c11
zymx0oyhs78
false
My8XSEEPdBPeVpBYNr4iE0M8msD2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Redacted", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
MochiScreenTime
Syj9aUf4KJVKyXb1qo0X
public
contract
1,717,885,653,804
will-a-japanesebred-horse-win-the-2-ad91cc2aeab4
MochiScreenTime
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJuvTK-p773PJodsro6Z-_yKeTBCrzDIbcJTaL0bJ2A=s96-c
Will a Japanese-bred horse win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
null
0.01
548.740508
YES
null
q20zw9qyjne
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Kalshi has one about the cftc", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,885,660,696
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
436.589462
NO
86843e9e6c11
zcksz701ujh
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ugzwqdwdyws", "label": "thepurplebull", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Haws
IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry
public
contract
1,717,885,674,076
are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election?
ugzwqdwdyws
null
null
null
null
touqmlu47bs
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "check the costume shop up the road!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,885,717,597
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
5,167.201674
YES
ac9f592329e2
y8nlwi4018
false
GmaScn1bXEaAgZvilcjmNxHS6qk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How will the competition work? Will each competitor chose one song to perform?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" ...
Yoav Tzfati
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,885,737,365
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
Crazytieguy
https://firebasestorage.…3fd-adaa38437cc0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
null
null
null
null
null
7nrmudgdf
false
T8NlrAJopwPEGVtYNT632dG1T9w1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Is this the same as the Guarniad?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Tony Gao
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,885,876,379
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
TonyGao
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIpLUZiDF36FdJMiy0qk-FYuQsmXeN1d4n7tfVFMp7ZDbs=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
436.589462
NO
86843e9e6c11
zltvty6uqm
false
DfYrmoP0U5O5rfRXaeZ5NpfTzUH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9g3ez842nas", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Emma Liddell
njoGXomKgzgNwP9A0mAP
public
contract
1,717,885,926,356
during-manifoldlol-will-the-audienc
EmmaLiddell
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLeC4DdWXgex1g2pgngS9WqvqZdIcjxv5xynMDv0ezY=s96-c
During manifold.lol, which topics will the audience laugh at a joke about?
9g3ez842nas
null
null
null
null
jc4q5ac21g
false
AJwLWoo3xue32XIiAVrL5SyR1WB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "y8nlwi4018", "label": "Crazytieguy", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ian Philips
9tu4sZ68WIwjs4LQrcIA
public
contract
1,717,886,068,168
who-will-win-manifests-karaoke-komp
ian
https://firebasestorage.…2e2-669b3fa9eaf0
Who will win Manifest's Karaoke Kompetition?
y8nlwi4018
null
3,019.098735
NO
u1jf6yhfn5
5gookdscbg7
false
lLJ59uxmELOLryUIN2pcT9jyMRH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Updates? I tried to bring you some mushroom tea but my friend drank it", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ...
Alex
uSkAOnWASY4KdqL5pQ4S
public
contract
1,717,886,084,876
how-many-individual-drugs-will-i-co-of6krlu8ah
Alex
https://firebasestorage.…886-0bd02ecd58e4
How many types of drugs will I consume at Manifest?
null
null
350.241079
NO
gu1w2s1126
dy4wehgzrsw
false
0G4e0M74JzfTXbZXvYWjzwQCbQP2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "79obo320jpg", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Magnus
IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry
public
contract
1,717,886,159,282
are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump
thepurplebull
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLXSToo0Id6FL4KCpM8Vgoz3tf_ZLnlgS60B_OCfmrsm6E=s96-c
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election?
ugzwqdwdyws
null
516.041126
YES
e5hs4dew3o
xyay3qpqj0i
false
MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are you still looking for gold?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jim
5VxIQger5o9WXEObpfZe
public
contract
1,717,886,370,409
open-market-will-i-find-gold-in-cal
JimAusman
https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee
[OPEN MARKET] Will I find Gold in California? (And other bets for my trip to CA).
null
null
45.428976
NO
581b48786011
7outf70jaq7
false
U9CcCHe2DKh5giW0vdekowBv2Wo2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "19pipj6001k", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
keri
KARvvXZuzJNFOYQ8IWkm
public
contract
1,717,886,410,752
will-i-eat-ass-in-the-next-24
zoli
https://firebasestorage.…012-66f8660f9faa
Will I eat ass in the next 24...?
71crycw6lw6
null
null
null
null
x91s8w5ongi
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": "", "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lan...
Haws
5YezCByyU3Pn3vaieURY
public
contract
1,717,886,533,999
will-florida-panthers-beat-edmonton
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
Will Florida Panthers beat Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals (Prediction Market)
null
0.631469
507.904257
NO
null
km4gdiatj5
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "orke5p7jwa", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Bayesian
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,886,547,890
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
null
null
null
null
a2j2b3uteem
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "dy4wehgzrsw", "label": "thepurplebull", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
IGC7eGFkKTlsh97E7Yry
public
contract
1,717,886,829,755
are-manifold-users-voting-for-trump
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Are Manifold users voting for Trump or Biden in the 2024 election?
ugzwqdwdyws
null
761.491661
YES
e5hs4dew3o
4mneokty0wp
false
0POGoEd0LhPMnl2C8gnoICHbiFn1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Are your main problems with GPT-4 the word choices (which is my main problem with it, it has a certain bias/tone in what it says which can contaminate ...
Aleph
6Gakf8HFwgl7sudHZQvM
public
contract
1,717,886,832,082
will-gpt5-be-able-to-be-a-coauthor
Aleph
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyjX5ewlZlRCsxAUN0-BkUAWr8dzr5HJCq-BNAW=s96-c
Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?
null
null
null
null
null
sp25w4p0xb
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "label": "Tetraspace", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention...
stefanie
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,887,002,429
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
1,013.908674
NO
db057eb685ee
onxma1lzeve
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "IRwA1MdNi6bbB9O3pWQW8mCRVZl2", "label": "schlongenheim", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "ment...
stefanie
DvWzZn3uX57mEdIUfaS2
public
contract
1,717,887,032,946
which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which users will attend Manifest 2024?
null
null
1,013.908674
NO
db057eb685ee
cgmpim2g17
false
gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h4k8bkxxp0s", "label": "Soli", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, { ...
Clark 🐶
cHNbmkPkW9fpx8vhYAI4
public
contract
1,717,887,317,256
will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
Clark
https://firebasestorage.…351-d69f4c944781
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in before end of 2025?
0ng0tl5h05h
null
null
null
null
chho4s0mu98
false
Vu2AhxmljTgf1ejTRZV8QwZgFA93
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "17emhrd2pho", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Javi
nCvNZPM0dKpKBcnMrEUY
public
contract
1,717,887,415,680
would-these-interventions-succeed-i
JavierPrieto
https://firebasestorage.…69b-446bc575b844
Would these interventions succeed if pursued very aggressively?
17emhrd2pho
null
null
null
null
j8txde143e
false
gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I hope so! Would attend, especially if there's a similar way it bridges with LessOnline", "type": "text" } ], "type": "pa...
Clark 🐶
gvExxWwTMhpbNsuDMxq0
public
contract
1,717,887,477,345
will-there-be-a-2nd-summer-camp-hel
Clark
https://firebasestorage.…351-d69f4c944781
Will there be a 2nd summer camp held in 2025?
null
0.768405
126.623083
YES
null
v5bannawrnc
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "hdpxev3zksg", "label": "Mqrius", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
notarealuser
jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
public
contract
1,717,887,567,667
will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
xo6my8ih79d
0.2
1,716.526659
YES
null
hlr36iu0tn
false
9A2Nxc3v47X6GjzdlOzdHEdePiv2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Thanks for everyone's predictions. new question is already up!", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "ty...
CrowTheFox
1fwYm83LzzOt6H7ctWjz
public
contract
1,717,887,594,131
what-will-my-d12-land-on-daily
CrowTheFox
https://firebasestorage.…595-28d54bbe7c1c
What will my d12 land on? - Daily
null
null
null
null
null
snco40ljgxf
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "chho4s0mu98", "label": "JavierPrieto", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
nCvNZPM0dKpKBcnMrEUY
public
contract
1,717,887,679,469
would-these-interventions-succeed-i
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Would these interventions succeed if pursued very aggressively?
17emhrd2pho
null
81.35005
YES
lrpmdu1dfp
a0w5vawoltt
false
KyL8Ne9ytVZOcOcfHFxF9DacOgL2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v5bannawrnc", "label": "notarealuser", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Christopher Randles
jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
public
contract
1,717,888,116,632
will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
ChristopherRandles
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY3_PAyuLB3J_OqBJQ5T3NjkNLcX7WEzxb7X0Fw=s96-c
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
xo6my8ih79d
0.2
142.857143
NO
null
0viiaw6j949c
false
3P4jYmiRLYPZysvyXy7hmRxOYPz1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "frtxwmzvub8", "label": "singer", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Connor Dolan
7sMmoXCJkRw1XR66HUyP
public
contract
1,717,888,169,954
are-these-programming-language-feat
ConnorDolan
https://firebasestorage.…ae7-97b495c2352d
Are these programming language features underrated or overrated?
frtxwmzvub8
null
null
null
null
g74le3lpm1l
false
uyFbHRn5q9fq9DFSoHXIAhw7KrD3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "a0w5vawoltt", "label": "ChristopherRandles", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
notarealuser
jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
public
contract
1,717,888,172,849
will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
notarealuser
https://firebasestorage.…8ad-29a00de78354
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
xo6my8ih79d
0.2
1,716.526659
YES
null
tef2e971f3k
false
fhS0jbCflWhOPBnvUNAJa887Fxk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "How did this resolve yes again? I disagree", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
jmill
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,888,458,637
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
jmill
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQg0Ptt81dnJYYTgNn0SZmpVqEMDqIYEpk780bZYvctLYtZQ=s96-c
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
null
null
20,609.571512
NO
utbi4k2ihf
31zekbn0bkb
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "tef2e971f3k", "label": "jmill", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,888,544,600
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
tef2e971f3k
null
3,253.211718
YES
7fa5aj1u2i
ohxxq8kosfi
false
js1u8BIyzjVoBjkM1YQgueA0bav1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Gentle suggestion that 3 beers is too many for the desired effect if you're starting from no/low tolerance. I'd suggest two would be a better experimen...
JohnofCharleston
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,888,609,103
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
JohnofCharleston
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7uw9wqj12zSkINvp2TjDpvLAn3j0gX7j7-RLYCrA=s96-c
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
null
0.385504
123.584086
YES
null
76exl4iymxd
false
fhS0jbCflWhOPBnvUNAJa887Fxk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "31zekbn0bkb", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
jmill
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,888,707,074
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
jmill
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQg0Ptt81dnJYYTgNn0SZmpVqEMDqIYEpk780bZYvctLYtZQ=s96-c
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
tef2e971f3k
null
20,609.571512
NO
utbi4k2ihf
f3lxjczhz0j
false
Ld9GDtHYNkZUnetvu8nLGhrOvyj1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "The site below lists many earthquakes that would not count due to distance. I’d argue that an earthquake large enough to qualify almost never happens i...
Nhoj
uhJWgo9M6s3RyuBlHwZJ
public
contract
1,717,888,944,144
will-san-francisco-experience-a-maj
Nhoj
https://firebasestorage.…711-941fbf06c68e
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
null
0.303853
653.410484
NO
null
t4v781zkg7
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "JVkUeNTIsaUBG8h6W2Px7vQCMMw1", "label": "ovals", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
XFNtTZyhyC44YTAbCTQ9
public
contract
1,717,889,269,544
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo-77661cde04af
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
null
null
1,535.975534
NO
fb25dd09b862
plunhv6tewl
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "76exl4iymxd", "label": "jmill", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
stefanie
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,889,488,365
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
tef2e971f3k
null
3,253.211718
YES
7fa5aj1u2i
nedxu9v5s
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "plunhv6tewl", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Andrew G
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,889,511,931
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
tef2e971f3k
null
13,556.573107
YES
utbi4k2ihf
6nbf0porywy
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "km4gdiatj5", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
John David Pressman
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,889,593,191
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.256568
437.559324
YES
null
6qhmxixf7b
false
X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": 0, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "lang...
Keenen W
5YezCByyU3Pn3vaieURY
public
contract
1,717,889,701,967
will-florida-panthers-beat-edmonton
KeenenW
https://firebasestorage.…a82-90bc3d0d0fbb
Will Florida Panthers beat Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals (Prediction Market)
null
null
null
null
null
gtwhm3g0wuo
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6nbf0porywy", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,889,709,346
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
null
null
null
null
9w0ry3f373d
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ouab59m9useJt5EgmezX0KWbrUm2", "label": "Janethebane", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mentio...
Timothy Johnson
rwRLjnrUQuBrHHXDxZkZ
public
contract
1,717,889,794,006
will-a-republican-presidential-cand
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will a Republican Presidential candidate call for the banning of pornography during the primaries?
null
0.103968
1,222.823352
NO
null
62dm6pgyade
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "vuI5upWB8yU00rP7yxj95J2zd952", "label": "ManifoldPolitics", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "m...
Timothy Johnson
F8GfRvkS1FXCSWkwgzPK
public
contract
1,717,889,845,545
will-trump-beat-biden-in-nevada-pol-903cf5184858
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Will Trump beat Biden in Nevada polling at the beginning of July? (538)
null
0.9
731.92001
YES
null
5u636z3o0nh
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Timothy Johnson
iqSJVeYtOWnHHxPoOlaG
public
contract
1,717,890,037,311
what-locations-world-wide-will-have
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
What locations world wide will have a 5 magnitude earthquake or higher in May 2024
null
null
127.807362
NO
6b4a482064da
hg9nu5ei9jr
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5u636z3o0nh", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
stefanie
iqSJVeYtOWnHHxPoOlaG
public
contract
1,717,890,131,110
what-locations-world-wide-will-have
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
What locations world wide will have a 5 magnitude earthquake or higher in May 2024
5u636z3o0nh
null
384.05051
YES
f98f08db104d
159c5k6pvx
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gtwhm3g0wuo", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
John David Pressman
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,890,233,624
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.30325
437.559324
YES
null
qxnq5tau34t
false
lwgcfvkXBVaaZjay1ys8LLJuKTC3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Scott signed my copy of Unsong, can be resolved", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Santeri
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,890,314,548
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
sanyero
https://firebasestorage.…646-eec20d51e537
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,794.035592
YES
d6e5060cefe3
zpc5piiid7
false
Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Resolves yes", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
nikki
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,890,425,483
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
nikki
https://firebasestorage.…3b3-20f4f646b970
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
1,792.902017
NO
7a987b043340
sz4fngm5jrg
false
pQbx17DeEjMv8kT8fahn5ai5Reu1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "When do you plan on resolving the market? if you wake up hungover tomorrow morning would you resolve as \"no\"?", "type": "text" } ...
Sydney
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,890,835,489
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
sydneyf
https://firebasestorage.…9cb-087e25ebc3d1
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
null
0.33752
293.499382
NO
null
g60ym6kfjwn
false
zfF5BimgexZ5z6shuMV7e6nWE2K3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Contextualise “have a bad time” and “have a good time”", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "do...
Qasim
IpVdsbRzwTKYHcjfry0j
public
contract
1,717,890,927,052
will-i-regret-drinking-3-beers-over
qaslay
https://firebasestorage.…b1b-35b374f5a31b
Will I regret drinking 3+ beers over 2 hours at manifest from 6-8 pm?
null
0.33752
147.137663
NO
null
6wk43pc35f8
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "159c5k6pvx", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
John David Pressman
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,890,962,660
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.30325
437.559324
YES
null
ftkchmc6u8
false
fhS0jbCflWhOPBnvUNAJa887Fxk2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "nedxu9v5s", "label": "AndrewG", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, {...
jmill
ophX4TO8SIU15wpFpzxJ
public
contract
1,717,890,992,101
which-questions-will-we-answer-duri
jmill
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQg0Ptt81dnJYYTgNn0SZmpVqEMDqIYEpk780bZYvctLYtZQ=s96-c
Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
tef2e971f3k
null
20,609.571512
NO
utbi4k2ihf
eslf7ckuu9f
false
sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "WQJ92QkoqDPuyj6DAZ5lR6g1x573", "label": "mods", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
The Official
742BMZB7prTe3vweDpSF
public
contract
1,717,891,268,002
which-horse-will-win-the-2024-belmo
10thOfficial
https://firebasestorage.…8ec-be730e0a7e96
🏇 Which horse will win the 2024 Belmont Stakes?
xnvo22llqnp
null
15,158.402452
YES
i2ocq42wfx
j020v40lq3
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "6wk43pc35f8", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,891,473,301
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
null
null
null
null
9s4lemt3b7n
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "j020v40lq3", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
John David Pressman
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,891,649,394
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.30325
437.559324
YES
null
u20pghllaz
false
foG4N8oWHvfcCOtxUojy8XzKx7A3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9s4lemt3b7n", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
John David Pressman
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,891,787,404
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
JohnDavidPressman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLUh4TXYbvIk6ZMpAVP7OeqjAOpUBlTcv9xybWh_N2MCvP9oA=s96-c
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
0.30325
437.559324
YES
null
5vqloiehva5
false
VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "What happens if he changes his shirt each commercial break? ", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" }, { ...
Madge
juAcNnsl4vYJ28mcWjDL
public
contract
1,717,891,862,473
predominant-color-of-joe-bidens-shi
Mad
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c
Predominant color of Joe Biden's shirt at the debate on June 27
null
null
null
null
null
tlbcmp1zgi
false
H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm currently at $2", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Andrew G
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,891,863,567
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
AndrewG
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
2,644.279133
NO
sb84v6v1fg
7dscwcu1m4g
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm surprised this is so high - don't most Manifolders expect that GPT6 or 7 will be an AGI?", "type": "text" } ], "type"...
Timothy Johnson
KYemquxoEQCMagfo5XE0
public
contract
1,717,891,998,586
good-tweet-or-bad-tweet-which-contr
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
null
null
1,661.256438
NO
b3c5aaa8c26f
ins9tw4tvxf
false
wBYfXajsCqaOxDkEqzCz8U3rFNB2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Where's the Bryan Cranston market 👀👀", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Jonah Weissman
Gpg5w1XoD3ADrWSEogHu
public
contract
1,717,892,029,652
who-will-giancarlo-esposito-play-in
JonahWeissman
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ0R08lEWjgZ6q7AFz1nPa-4Q72avJiJrSHlFNvOTae=s96-c
Who will Giancarlo Esposito play in the MCU?
null
null
148.990825
YES
5svrsl8e7g
hmwemby6ukv
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "9s4lemt3b7n", "label": "JohnDavidPressman", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Bayesian
OiJ9KnW29ImsmlHrg4sO
public
contract
1,717,892,079,311
is-the-promethean-virus-in-large-la
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
wt6a2im0twn
null
null
null
null
zk46y3sazz
false
brEHeVfwNxdHIZ0cF4B3JsNnU212
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sshuawaitc", "label": "AxelRthingCano", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Predict
t7Ewym4a84h1HwAnaWmL
public
contract
1,717,892,361,393
will-apple-announce-new-hardware-at
Predict
https://firebasestorage.…26e-437e1b348c8e
Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC 2024?
sshuawaitc
0.260863
642.901257
YES
null
s4x0lsogqx
false
IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "82nzdtu3m25", "label": "kenmichaels", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Ken Michaels
1sQFF7liE5Iw5ePbH3GM
public
contract
1,717,892,436,921
will-jimmy-carter-become-a-centenar
kenmichaels
https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?
82nzdtu3m25
0.5
32,676.433729
NO
null
8hnxw7on2r9
false
IiBcUTs3V1bYSg0WbDlq4eKASv62
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Dwarkesh explicitly mentioned grey goo in his talk on ai risk", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "typ...
0x413124
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,892,598,666
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
0x413124
https://firebasestorage.…d93-076646d2c566
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
248.049946
NO
20c6b9b49614
3z0tk3gabo
false
2FMogQwA0OUT6iqcbsq8EMtW3yw2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Since I’m now working at Apple, I’m closing all my related market positions to not leak any insider bits.", "type": "text" } ],...
spider
Nc0tyrWYuKsQX01MddHE
public
contract
1,717,893,001,985
how-much-will-the-vr-market-grow-as
spider
https://firebasestorage.…930-f41df6d1ed53
How much will the VR market grow as a result of Apple Vision Pro
null
null
0
YES
b19f92238c2e
2591upq3s3h
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": [ { "attrs": { "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decora...
Haws
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,893,208,869
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
null
null
null
null
null
c0mxl1uomna
false
Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "gFPP5Z6rRPdPLcwZmqt5c1tTo6Q2", "label": "saulmunn", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Ziddletwix
7oNvmOAzrpPmjs6wjuzh
public
contract
1,717,893,617,344
will-the-next-manifest-be-hosted-in
Ziddletwix
https://firebasestorage.…983-3ba213ef2b96
Will the next Manifest be hosted in NYC?
null
0.01
2,265.562827
NO
null
i9jfodnsdgb
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": { "alt": null, "contractIds": null, "deleteCallback": null, "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "frameBorder": null, "hideCloseButton": null, "id": null, "image": null, "inputKey": null, "l...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,893,804,270
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
8u4nksdo95q
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "i9jfodnsdgb", "label": "Joshua", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Predictor 🔥
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,894,409,579
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
i9jfodnsdgb
null
306.049664
YES
hd0zc92eh6
zs5093a9jfg
false
ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "8u4nksdo95q", "label": "Predictor", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Predictor 🔥
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,894,431,911
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Predictor
https://firebasestorage.…22a-9833cd6cbc4e
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
i9jfodnsdgb
null
306.049664
YES
hd0zc92eh6
mjueg0c896r
false
aYwZvdAWKEfZrR1CGgYQ4fd9WDs2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do they have to be strict pull-ups, or can they be kipping pull-ups?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ],...
Roman Hauksson
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,895,269,646
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
RomanHauksson
https://firebasestorage.…377-3a21cda4e609
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
57.343299
NO
eca546d225a5
26yrzgbbzk6
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,895,493,832
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
5,167.201674
YES
ac9f592329e2
np2hlgqn5sd
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "26yrzgbbzk6", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,895,540,399
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
26yrzgbbzk6
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
xrqas92ywv9
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "only thing i know is it's going to the moon", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,895,559,660
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
26yrzgbbzk6
null
625.091743
YES
1f6173f16811
100jbcyw8w5i
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I have added a question mark", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,895,571,070
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
26yrzgbbzk6
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
naq1rtnhiic
false
Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rgiwgly58y", "label": "thatMikeBishop", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
JGY
Z2iOVSTL6001YuzwfoQc
public
contract
1,717,895,627,199
in-what-year-will-a-canadian-team-h
jgyou
https://firebasestorage.…907-90bdc2aca417
In what year will a Canadian team have won a new Stanley Cup?
rgiwgly58y
null
null
null
null
7z9sytg34po
false
KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "session currently happening but no brave challengers yet 🤔", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type"...
stefanie
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,895,765,897
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
shankypanky
https://firebasestorage.…ba1-83532c98e108
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
5,167.201674
YES
ac9f592329e2
rcdagzj9pm
false
TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "g5tjqs36y1i", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Symmetry
OVDRlQpiwX6tF2ssLhQL
public
contract
1,717,896,268,760
will-bing-ai-stop-sucking-by-mid-20
Symmetry
https://firebasestorage.…17b-be701d8b2f3a
Will Bing AI stop sucking by mid 2024?
g5tjqs36y1i
0.314744
55.588235
NO
null
5en6cob5b1g
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "26yrzgbbzk6", "label": "shankypanky", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Corinne
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,896,273,089
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
26yrzgbbzk6
null
517.15276
NO
b8gjj8awwm
lnqgaiolp7r
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "I'm a very sad Canadian tn...", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Haws
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,896,294,428
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
null
null
56.443011
YES
dn1fu5osln
sn33cccal3
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "rcdagzj9pm", "label": "Symmetry", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Bayesian
OVDRlQpiwX6tF2ssLhQL
public
contract
1,717,896,328,201
will-bing-ai-stop-sucking-by-mid-20
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Bing AI stop sucking by mid 2024?
g5tjqs36y1i
0.314744
15.021225
YES
null
2q0ik69quak
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "It's up to you to judge it though", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Bayesian
OVDRlQpiwX6tF2ssLhQL
public
contract
1,717,896,337,810
will-bing-ai-stop-sucking-by-mid-20
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
Will Bing AI stop sucking by mid 2024?
g5tjqs36y1i
0.314744
15.021225
YES
null
5ts50xbkjgi
false
JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "5en6cob5b1g", "label": "manic_pixie_agi", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Joshua
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,896,345,782
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
Joshua
https://firebasestorage.…7d5-f5791800ee6f
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
26yrzgbbzk6
null
778.383102
YES
8gqgoka43j
a1q5388rhu5
false
TjvzR8cg5cVoLshGhhe4kwxnJEH2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "2q0ik69quak", "label": "Bayesian", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Symmetry
OVDRlQpiwX6tF2ssLhQL
public
contract
1,717,896,412,452
will-bing-ai-stop-sucking-by-mid-20
Symmetry
https://firebasestorage.…17b-be701d8b2f3a
Will Bing AI stop sucking by mid 2024?
g5tjqs36y1i
0.314744
55.588235
NO
null
ut79icq71qd
false
ct6oydGUOWPw4mriOThe4VKvjp02
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "are you opposed to taking semaglutide?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Craig Talbert
v6UUopLRUlNTnxyqxLMa
public
contract
1,717,896,767,854
will-i-weigh-under-200-lbs-on-20241
CraigTalbert
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu07zX_MPxiC_Z__K153f6dF4Tly8coWnj1HWKHboRo=s96-c
Will I weigh under 200 lbs on 2024-12-31? (-1.55 lbs/week)
null
null
null
null
null
ou8oq417yb
false
o1tQ3ntGCkYAPLBvQABsoIqOaMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Whoa whoa whoa, that wasn’t a fighting penalty?", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Robert Sutherland
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,897,268,212
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
RobertSutherland
https://storage.googleap…QABsoIqOaMz2.png
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
null
null
57.6698
NO
daiq1al7ih
h3307dbztzn
false
o1tQ3ntGCkYAPLBvQABsoIqOaMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "ou8oq417yb", "label": "RobertSutherland", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" },...
Robert Sutherland
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,897,380,807
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
RobertSutherland
https://storage.googleap…QABsoIqOaMz2.png
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
ou8oq417yb
null
57.6698
NO
daiq1al7ih
oltd5or5zq9
false
o1tQ3ntGCkYAPLBvQABsoIqOaMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "h3307dbztzn", "label": "RobertSutherland", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Robert Sutherland
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,897,409,420
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
RobertSutherland
https://storage.googleap…QABsoIqOaMz2.png
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
ou8oq417yb
null
57.6698
NO
daiq1al7ih
j8opu6sgkyn
false
o1tQ3ntGCkYAPLBvQABsoIqOaMz2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oltd5or5zq9", "label": "RobertSutherland", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Robert Sutherland
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,897,442,116
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
RobertSutherland
https://storage.googleap…QABsoIqOaMz2.png
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
ou8oq417yb
null
57.6698
NO
daiq1al7ih
7yq72rzag0g
false
BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "oltd5or5zq9", "label": "RobertSutherland", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
Haws
2DeP3F0kgbor4zXJXrSP
public
contract
1,717,897,530,963
nhl-finals-game-1-oilers-vs-panther-hdd9wi7vlq
Haws
https://firebasestorage.…977-f36ea9ae4436
NHL finals game 1: Oilers vs Panthers
ou8oq417yb
null
162.617158
NO
6f99ufn0bo
z4i5prz0lnn
false
2BVjwaEP1tYvmQ1xqIRzkID5aPC2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "a market about lil ol me 🥹", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "type": "doc" }
Corinne
kbVK9ZBEuE5GVoaPWEXx
public
contract
1,717,898,156,933
what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
manic_pixie_agi
https://firebasestorage.…8d0-9fdad2a36df6
Manifest 2024 Prop Bets
null
null
517.15276
NO
b8gjj8awwm
zng5ytcireo
false
XW9ix74ys7bMFZXT1BSFEegYIjx1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "sydc4k2xx09", "label": "TheAllMemeingEye", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }...
José Luis Ricón
l4OY578gGnVIrKYdwCdS
public
contract
1,717,898,197,376
will-i-bet-at-manifest-2024
JoseLuisRicon
https://firebasestorage.…78c-d4c65c4fcf2a
Will I be at Manifest 2024?
sydc4k2xx09
0.682571
152.688842
YES
null
0urjg8i6x5sk
false
4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "v1sXfDTUK2gOSWrK4pYrJ7boLJx2", "label": "Krantz", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
jackson polack
0GswU1qy80Sk1UogWuKR
public
contract
1,717,898,214,161
if-artificial-general-intelligence
jacksonpolack
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
null
null
618.233094
NO
a7f45547b647
91wbww101pk
false
MJSWJeLiUuVJx2I04pm6HvDT7Kv1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qg3jdtu6wnc", "label": "Spensicus", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Jim
uhJWgo9M6s3RyuBlHwZJ
public
contract
1,717,898,264,976
will-san-francisco-experience-a-maj
JimAusman
https://firebasestorage.…02c-9c3e2d7602ee
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
qg3jdtu6wnc
null
null
null
null
x37xunsi6b
false
APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Hd8tCTjDRwRtvssZ42JtF2sgCfg1", "label": "IhorKendiukhov", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "men...
JRP
qFwy2rB3UdqQZPQkb6xS
public
contract
1,717,898,521,292
what-will-be-the-life-expectancy-in
parhizj
https://firebasestorage.…a85-f1db3ce3acf8
What will be the life expectancy in the USA in 2050?
null
null
null
null
null
7whkk2ykm2v
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "Do you people really pronounce crayon to rhyme with can instead of rhyming with yawn? Or am I misreading this?", "type": "text" } ...
Timothy Johnson
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,898,710,043
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
null
null
992.92308
NO
i2t0a0mrgz
eux8qlxoauf
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "Qf3WzmH8yPRHWDDMoNgmB9iNNJU2", "label": "wglane", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Timothy Johnson
LqB6F0nCZNbdmcRFL4qs
public
contract
1,717,898,781,952
who-will-win-the-2024-prefontaine-c
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Who will win the 2024 Prefontaine Classic Bowerman Mile?
amc0bhem5sp
null
473.293347
NO
0066700e2413
huev3kg1dkm
false
srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": "that's what I assumed was the case when buying the 70 option up", "type": "text" } ], "type": "paragraph" } ], "t...
Bayesian
qFwy2rB3UdqQZPQkb6xS
public
contract
1,717,898,975,872
what-will-be-the-life-expectancy-in
Bayesian
https://firebasestorage.…b4b-99938a8b4ab3
What will be the life expectancy in the USA in 2050?
x37xunsi6b
null
1,704.422573
YES
x9bwa7r08x
qfk8znlxnil
false
ScsiswU6F8TGyb3GGh1N8T0A9Qs1
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "7whkk2ykm2v", "label": "TimothyJohnson5c16", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" ...
Zane
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,899,433,932
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
ZaneMiller
https://firebasestorage.…cd7-65f87738b782
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
7whkk2ykm2v
null
23.649114
NO
9wsygk1uxh
96tozxr6f3
false
e1vpMsZfzASlIASX1xPtLxyAFnA2
{ "content": [ { "attrs": null, "content": [ { "attrs": { "id": "qfk8znlxnil", "label": "ZaneMiller", "start": null }, "content": null, "marks": null, "text": null, "type": "mention" }, ...
Timothy Johnson
RKUo5XMnKNCmTP80EzpH
public
contract
1,717,899,710,316
manifold-american-english-pronuncia
TimothyJohnson5c16
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYY1maA_aMEcew3CXHdOWt6elNschJLRt5gE5D8AQ=s96-c
Manifold Decides - English Pronunciation Guide
7whkk2ykm2v
null
992.92308
NO
i2t0a0mrgz